Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/25/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
540 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy conditions continue into the weekend with high
temperatures rising into the 40s, nearing 50F south of I-90 by
Saturday. Low temperatures rise above freezing by Thursday
night, remaining above freezing into next week.
- A period of freezing drizzle is possible (0-20%) Wednesday
afternoon into the overnight hours, largely dependent on
temperature.
- Precipitation chances (50-80%) return Thursday into Friday
with rain being the expected precipitation type. Additional
chances for precipitation continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Cloudy Conditions and Warming Temperatures
Ample low level moisture is depicted in nearly every model
solution in the surface to ~3kft layer through the rest of the
week. This suggests the low stratus of today will stick around
as we head into the weekend. The biggest discrepancy in cloud
amounts remains between the 24.06z GEFS and 24.06z EPS for
Wednesday in the which some GEFS members suggest the potential
for clear skies today into Wednesday while others indicate
overcast skies. The EPS members are in much better agreement,
with every member indicating 100% sky cover throughout the week.
The GEFS members join in on this solution by late Wednesday.
Some members of both ensembles begin to indicate some clearing
on Sunday.
Winds turn southeasterly to southerly on the backside of
departing high pressure and upper ridging tonight and will
begin to advect warm air into the region tonight and Wednesday.
High temperatures begin to climb above freezing and into the 40s
towards the end of the week in response, with areas south of
I-90 possibly reaching 50F by Saturday as the NBM suggests a
40-80% probability of exceeding 45F. Ensemble guidance is in
good agreement regarding temperatures over the next several
days, with only a 2-5 degree spread in the 25th-75th percentiles
in the NBM and GEFS/EPS. Thinking that we may trend towards the
75th percentile for temperatures over the next few days though
given the expected cloudy skies and persistent southerly winds.
Freezing Drizzle Potential
The threat of freezing drizzle remains for the afternoon and
overnight hours of Christmas day. As previously mentioned,
model soundings depict a well saturated surface to ~3kft layer.
The RAP indicates a region of isentropic ascent within this
saturated layer on the 280K theta surface, moving northward with
time which may provide enough lift for precipitation to fall.
The 24.12z HREF joint probabilities of temperatures < 32F and
measurable precipitation range from 0-20%, so this is not a high
confidence scenario. Whether any precipitation is freezing or
not will be largely dependent on how warm the low levels get
Wednesday afternoon and how warm they remain into Thursday
morning.
Precipitation Chances Thursday and Friday and Again Next Week
A 500hPa trough currently off the west coast of the United States as
seen in water vapor imagery will move eastward into the
intermountain west and eject into the plains on Thursday before
propagating northward Thursday night into Friday. Forcing associated
with this trough combined with PWATs in the 99.5th percentile for
this time of year brings the chance for measurable precipitation to
the area (50-80%), which is expected to be all rain given the
previously mentioned warm air advection ahead of this feature. The
axis of highest QPF is currently expected from northeast Iowa into
central Wisconsin with total mean amounts of 0.25-0.3 inches within
this axis although 0.2 inches is possible elsewhere. NBM
probabilities suggest a 40-50% chance of exceeding 0.3 inches
within this axis of higher amounts areas and a 20-30% chance to
exceed 0.5 inches. Additional shortwaves traverse through the
mean flow over the weekend such that precipitation chances
continue throughout the weekend and may bump up the overall
precipitation amounts through the weekend.
The next best chances for precipitation return early next week as
another 500hPa trough moves into the region. There is still quite a
bit of uncertainty surrounding this next system as deterministic
guidance has various solutions regarding timing and location. The
WPC cluster analysis is still in good agreement regarding this
trough/system developing, but the uncertainty in track and timing
leads to multiple possibilities for precipitation type. The
current track seen in the NBM suggests a wintry mix scenario
across our area, but details regarding this possibility will
continue to become clearer in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Surface high pressure remains over the region with MVFR ceilings for
much of the area, but also some thinning or patchy breaks over parts
of southwest Wisconsin. The 24.12Z HREF has a signal for areas
of fog from the Missouri River Valley into northwest IA and
western MN/northern WI. Patchy 40-70% probabilities locally for
3sm or less. Low level moisture remains in place tonight and
with increasing low level moisture transport Wednesday evening,
when the depth of the moisture increases. Most of the forecast
soundings/hi-res models show lowering of ceilings from MVFR to
IFR this evening or overnight. The 900mb winds are somewhat
elevated, but have patchy fog in for now for parts of southeast
MN and northeast IA and north of I94. Winds remain light and
variable or light southeast tonight and Wednesday.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
536 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued above normal December high temperatures for SW Kansas.
- Forecasted fog Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
- Slight rain chances (10-40%) Thursday and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
The forecast area this week will be entertained by a few low
pressure systems. The first of which moved through SW Kansas earlier
on Tuesday and has dug into Oklahoma. Outside of lingering cloud
cover near the OK/KS border, the systems`s influence is primarily
done impacting the forecast area. RAP Mesoanalysis shows some upper-
level ridging building and moving in to fill the vacuum of the
exiting system. Synoptically that pattern will hold until late
Wednesday. In the meantime, Tuesday will feature clear skies and
nearly everywhere reaching highs into the 50s (>75% chance).
Models and ensembles continue to seem confident in Fog chances
Wednesday morning. The forecasted fog has taken on a "U" with the
heaviest areas in the far east of the forecast area on one end and
up through Garden City on the other. Whether that exact shape takes
hold is hard to pin down, but the overall fog chances are around 40%
from ensembles. It should be noted the HRRR is very aggressive with
large areas of <0.25 mi visibilities. Temperatures Wednesday are
expected to be similar to Tuesday if not a couple degrees cooler due
to some cloud cover.
The next notable system arrives very early Thursday although trends
continue to look worse for the CWA with regards to meaningful
precipitation. Latest runs of ensembles continue to push the track
south and results in rain chances diminishing even further. Chances
for accumulations are only above 25% in the four southeastern
counties, and even those counties are at a 50/50 chance from
national ensembles. What was once looking like light widespread
rainfall a few days ago now appears to be confined to only the
southeast where rain chances are not even certain. Extrapolating
these trends could result in almost no rain for all of SW Kansas.
Regardless of the rain widespread visibilities are expected for
nearly the entire forecast period as fog/low stratus develops
Thursday morning and is stubborn to clear.
Following into Friday, ensembles have a mid-level shortwave trough
developing and moving into SW Kansas. Precipitation chances with
this system has held firm at a 25-40% chance for accumulation via
ensembles. There is not clear consensus among longer ranged models
with the ECMWF being much wetter than the NAM or GFS. Considering
the last few systems have leaned on the drier side of guidance, take
Friday`s chances with a hint of skepticism until Thursday`s system
clears out. The modeled lower-levels are warm enough to prevent snow
from being a reasonable possibility at this point in time.
After Friday, the weekend consensus is dry and warm, well above
normal. Highs could reach into the 60s with a 75% chance near the
KS/OK border and between a 40-75% chance elsewhere from long ranged
ensembles. Ensemble trends are getting more optimistic of another
low pressure system passing through the northern zones Monday. The
next chance for precipitation occurs with the system heading into
Tuesday as well as the first meaningful potential for wintery
precipitation. That being said, large uncertainty exists and will
need to be honed in future forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Clear sky across most of the area through the evening will be
replaced by invading stratus overnight. As time gets toward
morning, the stratus should deteriorate to LIFR or even VFR
category as the HREF probability for less than 1000 ft cigs is
coming in from 50 to 75% at Hays and Liberal.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog tonight through Wednesday morning.
- Above average temperatures mid to late week will contribute to
30% chance for light rain or wintry mix Friday to Saturday,
mainly within Minnesota.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Dense fog continues to be reported within the counties under a
dense fog advisory, while light fog and low clouds prevail to
the east. There is still the small area in west central MN with
1/2sm vis, but this has not expanded and BL winds 10-25kt are
likely playing a role in limiting dense fog development along
and east of the Red River Valley up to this point. CAMs and
related blends continue to try to show dense fog development in
these areas (after initializing on current obs) and this is
just not happening yet. I remain skeptical in widespread dense
fog impacts east of the current advisory, and am comfortable
just monitoring trends and expanding/extending if it become
necessary.
UPDATE
Issued at 701 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Dense fog is already being reported at KDVL and Valley City
within the earlier clearing area, in line with locations where
the Dense Fog Advisory is in place. To the east where winds are
stronger lighter fog is being reported, however guidance
continues to show an expansion of dense fog across our entire
region over the next 6hr. Obs haven`t matched this trend in CAMs
where winds are higher (likely helping with mixing) and each
new run of CAMs have delayed this expansion of dense advection
fog. I`m still not confident enough in advisory expansion at
this time, but will continue to monitor.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
...Synopsis...
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows weak upper trough
passing through the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, migrating
eastward. Behind this departing upper trough is shortwave upper
ridging building into the Northern Plains. This is ahead of deep
upper troughing extending over the Pacific coast. At the
surface, high pressure centered near the WI/MN/IA region is
helping increase the pressure gradient over eastern Dakotas into
western MN. The increase in pressure gradient is bringing
breezy southerly winds, particularly within the Red River
Valley. This is producing drifting and blowing snow, and will
continue to do so until the gradient eases some this evening.
With the shortwave upper ridging building toward our area, the
pressure gradient easing with and temperatures decrease
tonight, dense fog is forecast to redevelop tonight into
tomorrow. More details on fog potential can be found below.
Shortwave upper ridging over our area will be short lived with
part of the deep upper troughing currently over the Pacific
coast migrates into the Northern Plains by late Wednesday. This
will help increase the pressure gradient, and as such another
bout of breezy southerly winds are forecast by Wednesday
afternoon into evening. This brings another chance for drifting
and patchy blowing snow, particularly within the Red River
Valley. With this incoming trough, subtle increase in low level
moisture and forcing aloft will bring a chance for freezing
drizzle/mist late Wednesday into early Thursday. Questions
remain on if enough low level moisture will be enough to
generate precipitation, lowering confidence on potential impacts
to travel conditions late Christmas into early Thursday.
As the upper troughing moves through Thursday, ensemble guidance
weakens the trough by Thursday, with upper ridging/southwesterly
flow building aloft. This comes ahead of a stronger upper trough
moving into the Upper Midwest out of the Southern Plains around
Friday-Saturday. More on this found below as well.
...Dense fog through Wednesday morning...
As temperatures decrease amid radiational cooling within
portions of eastern ND, confidence is highest here is where
dense fog will form tonight. This is backed by higher
probabilities in dense fog as offered by guidance like 12Z HREF
and recent HRRR runs. Thus a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for areas in eastern ND west of the Red River Valley through
Wednesday morning. There is still a chance for dense fog
elsewhere tonight, however confidence is not yet high enough to
issue any advisories out yet.
This is part of an extended period of dense fog amid freezing
temperatures that started early this week, and has resulted in
rime ice/hoar frost accumulation on exposed objects, including
power lines. With additional frost accumulation possible if not
likely within dense fog tonight/Wednesday morning, this may
introduce potential impacts to power infrastructure should large
accumulation of frost continue onto power lines.
From a historical perspective, power-related impacts from frost
accumulation isn`t uncommon in North Dakota. However, details
on how much accumulation or duration of dense freezing fog that
typically lead to these impacts remains uncertain.
There remains uncertainty in how frost accumulations have faired
in areas with winds between 10-20 mph, as well as sunshine in
portions of eastern ND. Recent webcams show there has been some
shedding of frost accumulations in places like northeast ND.
This may indicate some areas have `reset` in their
accumulations, and lowers chance in impacts to power
infrastructure. However, confidence remains degraded in coverage
of this `reset` and compounds uncertainty in impact potential
after additional frost accumulation tonight/Wednesday morning.
Yet another additional layer of uncertainty is how potential
freezing drizzle between Wednesday and Friday may play into
this. Previous events of long duration freezing fog leading to
large frost accumulation followed by light rain/drizzle has led
large impacts from power outages, notably in western ND in 2009.
Confidence in freezing drizzle to occur in our area should
increase, especially by late Thursday.
...Light rain and wintry mix potential Friday to Saturday...
With general upper ridging/southwest flow aloft late this week,
relatively mild temperatures are forecast to advect over the
Northern Plains from the High Plains via chinook wind processes.
General increase in moisture is strongly suggested by ensemble
guidance around Friday in association with the incoming stronger
Southern Plains trough. These combine to promote above average
temperatures near the freezing mark along with increase chance
in precipitation. Most ensemble guidance favors liquid as
dominant precipitation type Friday to Saturday based on above
freezing temperatures at the surface.
However, confidence is lowered in temperatures, mainly because
recent trends in guidance the last few days have shown a warm
bias, likely due to struggles in handling milder temperatures
over current widespread snowpack in our area. Thus, confidence
in strictly rain is lowered. It is possible temperatures could
be closer to freezing or below freezing bringing a chance for
wintry mix. There could be a period of freezing drizzle to also
precede steadier precipitation Friday to Saturday. These could
bring some winter impacts to the region, although confidence is
low in more refined details at this time.
Most ensemble guidance still favors Minnesota locations to hold
relatively best chance for precipitation Friday to Saturday
(30%), with overall amounts remaining light as bulk of stronger,
more consolidated forcing is advertised to move closer to the
western Great Lakes region. There remains the possibility of
weaker waves to move out of the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains around this time, also offering some potential
for light precipitation late this week.
Temperatures look to trend closer toward average getting into
early next week as the upper trough migrates east and flat,
northwesterly flow settles into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
There is currently a few clearing regions in northeast ND and
north central MN, otherwise MVFR to IFR ceilings are already in
place with fog (1-6sm) across eastern ND and northwest MN. Low
level moisture will continue to advect into the region due to
southerly flow and with radiational cooling the stratus and fog
will fill in and dense fog (1/4sm) will begin to develop. The
best chance for dense fog will be towards KDVL, however there is
a chance for all location to at least have LIFR ceilings and
1/2sm vis into the morning hours Wednesday. There is a signal
for improvement during the daytime period (at least with
visibility), however VFR conditions if they develop would
likely be for a brief period before low stratus and MVFR to IFR
conditions redevelop by the evening hours.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
534 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog is forecast to develop this evening and persist
through the Morning Christmas Day.
- The active weather pattern continues through the end of the
week with chances for light rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
An active weather pattern with a series of shortwaves affecting
the area is complicated by a shallow cold airmass as seen by
the stratus that slowly moved southwest into the area. The RAP
and NAM have been consistent in this shallow cold and nearly
saturated airmass continuing to expand southwest tonight. And as
long as the ridge axis remains over the forecast area, the low
clouds and fog are probably going to continue being the main
sensible weather. Forecast soundings and CAMs are in good
agreement for the stratus to lower and limit visibilities in
dense fog. So will go ahead and issue an advisory beginning this
evening and continuing through the morning. Santa will be glad
to have Rudolph on his sleigh tonight. An overall lack or
forcing or vertical motion suggests visibilities will be the
only impact through Christmas Day. Some freezing fog across
parts of northern KS may deposit some ice on elevated surfaces.
But surface streets should be alright with soil temps still
around 40 degrees.
A warm air advection pattern sets up Wednesday night and more of the
models are starting to show some QPF in the 06Z to 12Z Thursday time
frame. So have some slight chance POPs for measurable precip. The
expectation is for mainly drizzle to develop as isentropic upglide
increases lift within the stratus deck. Additionally the warm air
advection is forecast to keep temps above freezing, so the drizzle
should be all liquid. Better forcing and stronger vertical motion
is progged to impact the area Thursday afternoon and evening. This
is when the forecast has higher POPs and outright rain.
Additional shortwaves are forecast to move through the central
plains Friday and into Saturday. The NBM keeps some chance POPs into
Friday night which seems reasonable. A little more spread in timing
of the waves increases uncertainty in the POP forecast and how
quickly precip chances come to an end. So have stuck with the NBM
and POPs less than 20 percent on Saturday.
The models seem to be coming to a similar idea for a wave to dive
southeast through the plains on Monday, but differ on the track of
the wave. Ensembles from the 00Z runs suggests chances for precip
may be a little better (30 to 50 percent) than what the NBM and
official forecast has. But until the operational runs show better
agreement in the track of the system, will stick with the NBM. Will
need to keep an eye on this as models do show some colder air moving
in with the wave. So there is some potential for rain changing over
to snow. So far the 00Z ensembles show the potential for any snow
accumulations over a half inch to only be 10 to 20 percent.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Save for very early at MHK, confidence is high in IFR or worse
conditions at all sites through this forecast with surface ridge
extending from high pressure to the northeast only nudging east
while slowly modifying and a damp shallow airmass oozing
southwest at this writing. Main issue is when and how low
conditions will go and then rise again. Have kept close to
previous forecast and closer to the RAP which has a better
handle on the situation, with VLIFR conditions by 09Z and little
improvement until around 16Z. Minor boundary layer mixing and
relatively warm ground temperatures could be enough to keep
conditions LIFR however.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon CST
Wednesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Poage
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
917 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 916 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
- Areas of fog and drizzle persisting thru the night mainly SE OK to NW AR.
- Another dreary, cloudy day expected Christmas Day, with a few
light showers and/or drizzle possible, especially far eastern
OK and NW AR.
- Showers and isolated storms return Thursday into Thursday
night.
- Drier, sunnier, and warmer this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
As forecast, the nearly stationary clearing line to the north and
west of Tulsa is showing signs of a retreat westward, especially
across southern KS. Confidence in dense fog development is not
high enough in NE OK to maintain mention at this time. Thicker fog
has developed down near the Red River, but confidence in a
widespread dense fog event is not high. Areas of fog mention will
be maintained there. Aside from some minor tweaks, no other
changes needed to the forecast at this time.
Lacy
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
The main update made this evening was to reduce/remove thunder
potential over far SE OK. Convection has largely shifted south and
east of the region down into TX.
Still some potential for dense fog mainly to the north and west
of Tulsa later tonight where low clouds have cleared. The clearing
line has become more or less stationary now with the loss of
daytime heating. Recent runs of the HRRR also suggest that this
clearing line will back up to the west a bit later on tonight. If
current obs trends hold and the HRRR has the right idea, the
potential for dense fog in NE OK will be low. Will continue to
monitor this evening.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 141 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Slow moving upper low moving across north Texas this afternoon
will continue to trudge eastward tonight. Persistent band of light
to moderate rain with occasional lightning strikes will continue
to push slowly to the southeast through early this evening, but
light showery precipitation is likely to persist on through
tonight for much of southeast OK and northwest AR. Behind that a
shallow cool and basically saturated airmass will linger, with
areas of light drizzle and some fog making for a rather dreary,
albeit mild, Christmas Eve. Some breaks in the stratus deck have
been noted near the OK/KS border this afternoon and any areas that
see significant clearing will be susceptible to dense fog
development this evening. More likely scenario still looks to
favor a persistent cloud deck and less fog potential, but will
need to monitor closely. Temperatures won`t fall much tonight and
have nudged forecast low above the NBM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
AS the upper low continues to make slow progress east, showers
will continue to gradually decrease during the day across far
eastern OK and northwest AR, with persistent cloud cover and
patchy drizzle/fog over the remainder of the area. This results in
a short thermometer again for Christmas Day, and as such have
undercut the NBM values by a few degrees. In the meantime another
system currently moving onto the western U.S. will be approaching.
Increasing warm advection Wednesday night may result in expansion
of light showers back across a good part of the area, though any
amounts would be very light. Eventually by Thursday afternoon the
influence of this system will be felt, bringing an end to the
drizzle and fog, but also with expanding corridor of light to
moderate showers and some embedded thunderstorms. While models
have struggled with the evolution of this system, the higher
thunder and attendant severe weather chances still appear focused
across central and eastern TX, and possibly into southeast OK by
afternoon and evening. While locally heavy rainfall is possible,
this system will be more progressive and shorten the duration of
significant rainfall.
The progressive pattern continues into the weekend as another
system immediately follows on Friday. At his point the limited
moisture return looks to keep rain chances limited and generally
confined to areas farther east Friday night into early Saturday.
BY this time, the sun should finally make an appearance and once
it does, daytime temps will warm well above average with more
typical diurnal ranges. The next notable system beyond that is
forecast to move into the Plains about Monday. Winds should
increase notably ahead of the system, followed by considerably
cooler temperatures to start the new year. At this point precip
chances look focused to the northeast of our forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
IFR/LIFR cigs to prevail for much of the valid TAF period, along
with IFR/MVFR vsbys in fog. Brief periods LIFR/VLIFR vsbys will
be possible, mainly across the NW AR sites between 09-15z when at
that time the aforementioned prevailing cig and vsby categories
can be expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 43 51 48 59 / 0 10 20 60
FSM 48 57 51 62 / 40 30 20 60
MLC 46 56 50 62 / 30 20 20 70
BVO 37 50 43 59 / 0 10 10 50
FYV 43 57 47 62 / 30 30 20 50
BYV 45 52 48 58 / 40 30 20 50
MKO 46 53 50 59 / 20 20 20 70
MIO 42 52 48 60 / 10 10 20 50
F10 45 53 48 59 / 10 10 20 70
HHW 52 58 52 62 / 20 20 10 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23