Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/16/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
736 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue across the region tonight, followed
by another one on Monday. A cold front will cross the region on
Monday night. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley for
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As rain exits to the east overnight, low clouds and areas of fog
are likely. In addition, models soundings show veering of the
wind with height in a shallow moist layer so have added drizzle
to the forecast. It is a little hard to tell at this point how
dense the fog will get but areas of dense fog are possible. Will
monitor trends in observations and issue a dense fog advisory if
needed.
Previous discussion...The main freezing rain threat across the
region has ended, as temperatures and road/surface temperatures
have largely risen above freezing and any precipitation should
fall as all rain and not freeze to any surfaces. Therefore, have
allowed for the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at Noon. Some
sheltered areas of Northwest Pennsylvania could see another
hour or so of possible freezing rain, but impacts would be
extremely marginal.
A batch of showers is starting to reenter the forecast area this
afternoon as the upper trough axis enters the region. Overall,
the rain pattern will be more showery with hit and miss rain
showers expected through the first part of tonight, mainly along
and right ahead of the trough. Will continue to highlight these
chances with a mix of likely and low categorical PoPs.
With a break in the rain tonight and with some low level warm
air advection, suspect that there will be some lower clouds and
fog that will form. Especially over area that will stay a little
cooler this afternoon and evening and still have some stray snow
remaining on the ground. Will have an area of fog mentioned in
the forecast for these areas and could see the need for a Dense
Fog Advisory, depending on how conditions deteriorate overnight.
The atmosphere isn`t expected to completely decouple with clouds
overhead and southerly winds to 10 kt, but the warm advection
should overcome these elements to generate some fog and travel
issues for the Monday morning commute.
The next warm front and quickly approaching cold front
combination will be on deck for Monday and have PoPs ramping
back up to 100 percent as a swath of rain will fill in across
the area with this system. There will be some stronger warm air
advection with this warm front and temperatures may surge into
the mid 50s even with the clouds and rain across the region.
Unfortunately, the cold front is close behind and will clear out
the bulk of the rain and cool temperatures back down into the
30s for overnight lows. There will be flow off Lake Erie to
perhaps allow for some lingering rain showers in NE OH and NW
PA at the end of the period. Unfortunately, the cold air mass
with the front isn`t very strong and the lake has cooled
significantly over the last couple of weeks, so the overall
lake instability will be lacking and the impact will be marginal
at best. Therefore, will only have some low chance PoPs to end
the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather is anticipated for Tuesday and most of Tuesday night
as modest high pressure slides through the region. Expect a mix of
sun and clouds (more sun south) with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Clouds increase overnight Tuesday night with a small risk (20-30%)
for some light rain or rain/snow to spread in from the southwest
during the pre-dawn Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be in the
upper 20s and lower 30s.
A somewhat complex weather system will impact the region Wednesday
into Wednesday night. A frontal boundary will be draped across the
Ohio Valley Wednesday morning, and a flat shortwave zipping through
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday will attempt to spark a modest wave of
low pressure along that front. At the same time, another more potent
shortwave will dive into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, pushing a
cold front with a stronger airmass change will cross the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Models show some disagreement on
how the stronger shortwave and front diving in from the north will
interact with the flat shortwave and area of low pressure developing
over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This afternoon`s run of the ECMWF
has enough spacing between the two features to allow the wave of low
pressure to develop quicker and track farther north, bringing a
solid period of cold rain and/or wet snow to the area on Wednesday.
The GFS and Canadian are both a bit quicker to drop in the polar
shortwave, shunning the developing Ohio Valley low pressure a bit
farther to the south and east. This yields less precipitation across
the local area on Wednesday along with less dynamic cooling, meaning
little to no snow during the day Wednesday and just some rain
showers. The current forecast has a 50-80% chance of precipitation
(lowest in Northwest OH, highest from far eastern OH into PA) for
Wednesday in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix, with little to no
accumulation. The ECMWF solution is a bit of an outlier among
ensembles though can`t be discounted. However, even a more amplified
solution like the ECMWF wouldn`t be a huge snow producer given the
quick-hitting nature of the system, flat nature of the low pressure,
and very marginal low-level thermal profiles for snow, with ensemble
odds of even 3" of snow coming in at under 10%. Currently have
forecast highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday, though
there is a few degrees of uncertainty in either direction.
Either way, guidance agrees on a piece of colder air briefly
impacting the local area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
850mb temperatures briefly dipping to around -10C. With a west-
northwest flow and some lingering moisture, lake effect snow showers
are likely in the primary snowbelt Wednesday night into Thursday.
This does not look like a significant event of any sorts as the
airmass is not that cold and high pressure builds in quickly
Thursday, though some accumulation is possible. Lows Wednesday night
will fall into the mid to upper 20s. Locations outside of any lake
effect snow should dry out Wednesday night behind the cold
front.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slides through the Ohio Valley on Thursday, providing
for dry weather across most of the forecast area and resulting in
any lake effect snow showers in the snowbelt tapering and ending.
After a brief break on Thursday, the suggestion remains that a
somewhat active and colder pattern returns for Friday and the
weekend. Guidance agrees that a longwave trough will carve out over
the Great Lakes and Eastern U.S. starting on Friday, with a potent
shortwave/clipper dropping through the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley on
Friday. Have chance POPs (30-50%) area-wide late Thursday night
through Friday to account for potential for some light synoptic snow
or snow showers with any clipper and cold front moving through.
Details become less clear over the weekend, as there`s disagreement
on how deep and persistent any troughing will be. We`ll likely see a
generally north-northwest flow with colder than average
temperatures, which suggests that lake effect snow of some sort is a
good bet. The GFS solution is on the progressive side, giving us
more of a glancing blow of cold air, leading to temperatures that
aren`t as cold and less lake effect snow. The European is on the
other end of the spectrum, showing a deeper, slower-moving trough
resulting in colder temperatures and a potentially notable lake
effect snow event that involves Lake Huron. The Canadian model and
most ensembles generally lean closer to the European`s solution,
though there is some spread. Either way, POPs for snow showers
diminish Friday night into Saturday outside of the snowbelt, with
likely POPs in the snowbelt through Saturday night that begin
gradually tapering into Sunday (lower confidence that far out).
Temperatures will be near or slightly below average for Thursday and
Friday, with lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s. It will trend
colder over the weekend, with highs likely staying in the 20s and
lows in the 10s quite possible.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The steadier rain still ongoing across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania will exit to the east through midnight.
Ceilings will continue to lower overnight and will primarily be
IFR, except perhaps at ERI where downsloping winds may help to
keep ceilings in the MVFR range. In addition, areas of fog and
drizzle are likely to develop. The coverage of dense fog with
1/4 mile visibility is less confident. Think most terminals
except CLE and ERI will at least see IFR visibilities with
dense fog possible as ceilings lower below 400 feet, especially
at TOL/MFD/CAK.
Otherwise, rain will return on Monday morning as a warm front
lifts north, spreading southwest to northeast across the area.
This may initially lead to improvement in visibilities but many
sites will see visibilities remain in the 1-4 miles range
through Monday afternoon. Ceilings are expected to remain IFR.
Winds will be out of the south at less than 10 knots tonight,
except at ERI where conditions will be breezy with gusts to 25
knots. Winds will increase at the other terminals on Monday as a
trough approaches from the west. Gusts to 20-25 knots are
expected Monday afternoon with locally up to 30 knots at ERI.
Outlook...Rain and non-VFR conditions will continue into Monday
night with some non-VFR ceilings continuing into Tuesday. A
pair of weather systems could bring periodic non-VFR in rain
then snow for Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
10 to 20 knot south-southeast flow continues this evening over the
lake (a bit lighter out west, locally 20-25 knots along the eastern
lakeshore). A wind-driven Small Craft Advisory continues from
Geneva, OH points east, though it is on the marginal side. There is
some potential for winds to ramp up a bit more for a few hours this
evening. Either way, winds lull a bit tonight before increasing to
15-25 knots out of the south Monday afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds veer southwesterly behind the front
Monday evening and increase a bit more, with up to 30 knots
sustained (and gusts 35-40 knots) possible over the eastern basin.
Winds stay brisk into Tuesday before subsiding Tuesday afternoon and
evening as high pressure builds. Will let the current Small Craft
Advisory for the eastern zones come off the board before considering
future headlines, though we will need new advisories for most or all
nearshore waters Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The potential for
gales still appears to be rather low for most of the lake, though
the HRRR and ARW show a few hours of 30-35 knot sustained winds off
of PA and NY late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The current
impression remains that we`ll likely hold just below a gale, though
along with the expected Small Craft Advisory we will also monitor
for potential low water issues in the western basin Monday night.
A cold front will drop across the lake Wednesday evening. Another
front likely crosses on Friday. As colder air returns behind each
front periods of elevated northwest winds will be possible.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...KEC/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sullivan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
711 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
...New Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An active weather pattern is expected this week resulting in
rain chances tonight through Wednesday. The highest rain chances
will be after midnight tonight and Monday, and again on
Wednesday when fronts move across the region.
- A few storms may produce small hail across Central Texas
tomorrow afternoon.
- The front on Wednesday will bring seasonal temperatures back to
the region, and near or below freezing temperatures are
expected for parts of the region Thursday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Night/
Early evening surface observations and RAP analysis/satellite
imagery show cloudy, unseasonably warm, and humid conditions
persist across North and Central Texas tonight as a quick moving
upper level trough swings through the Central Plains. The
associated surface low is progressing eastward across southern
Manitoba while the attendant cold front is draped over central
Kansas. Persistent low level warm/moisture advection (pushing
surface dewpoints into the mid 60s as far north as the Red River)
atop the warm frontal layer continues to support the development
of patchy drizzle and light showers, particularly near and east of
the I-35 corridor.
While large-scale forcing for ascent will largely remain
displaced well to the north/northeast, the peripheral influence of
the weak passing disturbance combined with a 40-45 kt LLJ
(oriented from SW to NE) should be sufficient for re-developing
showers and even a few embedded thunderstorms across North and
Central Texas after midnight. The aforementioned cold front is
expected to begin slowly pushing into the region mid Monday
morning, providing an additional source of lift for rain and
thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the boundary
through the afternoon. The lethargic pace of the front will keep
rain chances over most of the region through the afternoon. Weak
deep-layer shear will limit the overall severe weather threat.
However, a high PWAT airmass (1.0-1.4") with moderate instability
(1000+ J/kg MUCAPE) will support the potential for a few stronger
storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and even some
small hail Monday afternoon. The best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be closely tied to the location of the frontal
boundary, generally progged to hug the I-20 corridor around mid-
day and slowly sagging into Central Texas through the afternoon.
Dont expect a big cooldown behind this front though, with highs
in the upper 60s along the Red River and the 70s elsewhere.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 215 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024/
/Monday Night and Beyond/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus just south of the
I-20 corridor Monday night as the cold front stalls generally
along a Canton-Hillsboro-Goldthwaite line. The potential for any
stronger storms will rapidly diminish late Monday evening with the
loss of daytime heating. A southerly flow regime will quickly re-
establish during the day Tuesday as the next upper-level system
begins its trek into the Plains. Low-level warm/moist advection
will lead to overcast skies and patchy drizzle/mist Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon across much of the region. A few
rain showers and rumbles of thunder will be possible east of I-35
where the nose of greatest theta-E advection meets enhanced
divergence aloft in the right entrance region of an upper-level
jet streak. The greatest rain chances through Tuesday evening will
remain just north of the Red River.
By late Tuesday night, a surface low will transit northeast
across the Ohio River Valley dragging a cold front into North
Texas. This boundary will provide a focus for additional scattered
thunderstorm development as the front progresses southeast over
our forecast area Wednesday morning. Rain chances will come to an
end by early Wednesday afternoon as gusty northerly winds behind
the front usher in drier, cooler air. Most of the region will see
0.25-0.5" of rain through Wednesday with a 30-40% chance that
totals exceed 1" along the Hwy 19 and Hwy 24 corridors across our
far eastern zones. Overnight lows in the 30s will return Wednesday
night with a freeze likely Thursday morning across portions of
the Big Country and along the Red River. Dry, sunny conditions
with near-normal temperatures will persist through the end of the
week with a reinforcing cold front arriving Friday that will keep
afternoon highs in the 50s and low 60s.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 657 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024/
/00Z TAFs/
Aviation Concerns: Returning MVFR/IFR cigs tonight then a cold
front with a wind shift Monday morning with showers expected along
and ahead of the front through the afternoon.
VFR cigs have returned in the wake of todays lifting warm front
with southerly surface winds around 10 to 15 kts. Persistent low
level warm/moisture advection has allowed for scattered showers to
develop east and south of D10 this afternoon and evening with a
continued low probability (less than 10 percent) for lightning.
Flight conditions will again deteriorate later tonight with
MVFR/IFR expected around midnight. IFR will likely persist
through much of the morning until the cold front moves through the
area.
While the front will be slow to pass over the TAF sites,
there will be a sharp wind shift to the north as the front reaches
the terminals along with the potential for showers. High
resolution models continue to struggle with the coverage of this
activity, therefore have maintained a mention of VCSH through the
afternoon. We will continue to keep -TS out of the TAFs until
there is a better consensus on the probability and coverage of
thunder. As the front moves southeast through the area, ceilings
will gradually improve with MVFR returning by mid-afternoon.
12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 71 55 68 51 / 40 50 20 10 40
Waco 66 74 59 75 58 / 10 50 30 10 30
Paris 62 69 54 68 50 / 70 70 40 30 60
Denton 60 70 50 67 47 / 40 60 20 10 40
McKinney 62 69 52 67 49 / 50 60 30 20 50
Dallas 64 71 55 71 51 / 40 50 30 10 40
Terrell 64 71 57 70 53 / 30 70 40 20 50
Corsicana 66 74 60 73 58 / 20 50 40 20 40
Temple 64 76 58 77 57 / 20 40 20 10 20
Mineral Wells 60 72 50 70 48 / 30 50 10 5 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
910 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and associated cold air damming will extend across the
Piedmont of the Carolinas, while gradually weakening, through
Tuesday. A series of cold fronts will progress across the region
Wednesday night through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Sunday...
Regional radar highlights light rain/drizzle continuing to move
across our northern counties this evening. Expect this to continue
for the next several hours, slowly drifting off into VA through mid-
morning tomorrow. Observed rainfall will continue to remain light
through this period.
The last few HRRR simulations are hinting at a bit better chance for
fog, perhaps some dense, for those generally east of I-95 late
tonight through early Monday morning. These areas remain warm
(lower to mid 50s) and embedded within an area of higher dew points.
Cloud cover may inhibit this some, but given the persistent low-
level enely flow, would not be surprised to see perhaps even some
advection fog off the inner coastal areas make their way towards
KRWI/KGSB/KGWW and the local vicinity. Further west, lowering
stratus may promote reduced visibilities in the Triad region as well.
Overnight lows will settle into the upper 30s to upper 40s, only
dropping 2-4 degrees in the NW Piedmont from their afternoon high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM PM Sunday...
Upper level low over the Northeast early Monday morning will shift
offshore followed by upper level ridge building over the eastern US
through the day. Monday morning will start out with patchy fog and
some isolated showers across the northern Piedmont before the CAD
erodes through mid/late morning. While much of the day will be dry,
skies are expected to be mostly cloudy as an approaching cold front
moves in from the west. Another round of moisture will move through
portions of the northern Piedmont (especially the Northwestern
areas) with some isolated showers in the evening and overnight hours
as a cold front moves through the region. Not much moisture will be
available on the east side of the mountains so limited PoPs to low
end slight chance. High temperatures will range from mid 50s NW to
mid/upper 60s SE. As the cold front moves through Monday night, low
temperatures will range from the mid/upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...
A surface low is expected to move across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday
and Wednesday before exiting the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. The
GFS moves this low faster with a more northerly track, versus the
ECMWF which keeps the low further to the south. Generally, models
agree that the associated cold front will move through Central NC
late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. The front will bring a
chance of rain beginning early Wednesday before clearing the region
Thursday. After this, high pressure will build back in leaving the
rest of the forecast cool and dry.
Maximum temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should warm into the
mid-60s to low-70s. After the cold front moves through early
Thursday, high temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday and Friday.
Weekend temperatures will be chilly with highs in the mid to upper
40s on Saturday and upper 30s to low 40s on Sunday. Low temperatures
will cool each night, going from low 50s Tuesday night to upper
teens by Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 PM Sunday...
IFR to LIFR CIGS and MVFR to IFR vsbys are expected through
15z/Monday. Conditions may improve a bit in the east, but remain sub-
VFR in the Triad into Monday night. Some very light rain or
sprinkles are expected, mainly this evening. Otherwise, just a bit
of drizzle and mist.
Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions with MVFR to IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys
expected into Wednesday. There is also a chance of showers.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Badgett
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
518 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight. The
greatest risk will be along and south of I-44 within a 60-90%
chance of showers and thunderstorms. The severe threat will
be isolated at best, but maximum potential hazards include
hail up to half dollars, 50-60 mph wind gusts, and an isolated
tornado or two not being ruled out.
- Next chance of rain occurs Tuesday night (30-60%). Highest
chances across south-central Missouri.
- Above normal temperatures through Tuesday, then trending to
near normal through end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
Current water vapor imagery paired with RAP analysis depicts two
shortwaves traversing the CONUS. One compact shortwave is moving
across the lower Great Lakes, while another is progressing west
through the northern Plains. Missouri is placed underneath the
rising heights in between the two waves. The rising heights are
a result of strong warm air advection from the surface through
700 mb. This is allowing temperatures to reach the upper 50s to
the upper 60s.
Two surface warm fronts are associated with the warm air
advection. One is stretched across east-central NE/KS and into
west-central MO. Another is lifting north out of central AR/OK.
Along the warm front in much of Arkansas, drizzle is currently
ongoing, marking the front of low-level moisture return. PWATs
along the southern MO border quickly increases from 0.5" to the
1.25.1.5" range in central AR where the drizzle is occurring.
Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight:
The AR warm front is forecast to quickly lift through our region
this evening and into tonight. Near-saturated low-levels, upward
omega aided by southerly upslope flow along the Ozark Plateau,
no chance of cloud ice, and a surface inversion will allow
drizzle to continue as it lifts into the area after 5-6 PM.
Drizzle will be the predominant precipitation type before
large-scale ascent ahead of the mid-level trough overspreads the
warm sector, forcing scattered to numerous showers along and
south of I-44 after 9 PM (30-60% chance). A few rumbles of
thunder are possible with this activity.
Once the cold front approaches, coverage in showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase after 11PM-1AM,
especially along and south of I-44 where moisture and
instability will be marginally higher (60-90% chance). With this
activity, there is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms along and SE of a Springfield to Joplin line
(which includes Branson). Coverage of severe thunderstorms is
expected to be even more isolated (~5-10% chance).
The threat of severe weather and its associated hazards are very
conditional and dependent on the degree of instability, and how
surface-based storms get. MUCAPE is expected to reach 500-1000
J/kg tonight, which is enough thunderstorms. A 40-50 kt dynamic
and nocturnal low-level jet will also move in tonight. Above
this jet, however, wind direction and speed barely changes. This
means 0-6 km shear will reach 40-50 kts (sufficient for
supercells), but 1-6 km shear will be a measly 5-15 kts.
Therefore, if storms are pretty elevated (rooted around or just
below 1 km), storms will be weak. But if storms are able to root
at the surface, isolated severe storms, including supercells,
are possible. This means that the minimum hazards for tonight
could be heavy rain to small hail (potentially copious amounts
of small hail given much of the MUCAPE in an elongated hail
growth zone). The maximum hazards for tonight would be hail up
to half dollars and wind gusts up to 50-60 mph. An isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out either if storms are surface
based, thanks to 30-40 kts of 0-1 km shear with 50-100 J/kg RAP
MLCAPE. However, saturated low-levels will limit surface lapse
rates, greatly inhibiting the threat for wind gusts and
tornadoes, even if surface-based. The threat for severe storms
will generally be before 6 AM or so.
Above normal temperatures Monday:
All rain should clear the area by mid-morning. Despite the cold
front clearing through, it will not make it very far south
during the day Monday, allowing highs to stay in the middle 50s
to lower 60s. Lows Monday night will be in the middle 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
Above normal temperatures through Tuesday:
With the wave and jet stream lifting north and staying out of
our area, the surface cold front will not make it very far
south. Recent deterministic models lift the boundary back
through our area Tuesday ahead of the next system Tuesday night.
All this will keep high temperatures above normal Tuesday with
highs in the middle to upper 50s and lows in the middle to upper
30s.
Next chance of rain comes Tuesday night (30-60% chance):
The next wave will be a bit more dynamic with a more elongated
trough axis and PV finger. This will bring another surface cold
front through the area, forcing another round of rain. Moisture
return ahead of this system will be more modest with only a
small window between the exit of Monday`s system and the
entering of this one. Therefore, chances are a bit lower at
30-60% with lower precipitation amounts (generally less than
0.5"). The highest chances will be in south-central MO.
With more meager moisture return, thunderstorm chances will also
be lower. Latest SREF guidance only gives a 10-30% chance for
MUCAPE >100 J/kg, with mean values at 50-75 J/kg. If
thunderstorms were to develop, the best chance for them would be
along and south of I-44. Severe weather is not expected at this
time with this system. Even if instability were to overperform
the current model output, deep-layer shear is likely (80-90%)
to stay below 30 kts.
Trending to near normal through end of the week:
With a more elongated trough axis, and the southeast digging
path of the wave, the surface cold front will make it well
through our area, bringing back cooler air. This will bring
temperatures back to the normal range through the end of next
week. Highs will generally be in the 40s with lows in the 20s.
It will be a cooling trend, so highs will be in the upper 40s
Wednesday and Thursday, and down into the upper 30s to lower 40s
next weekend. Lows will follow the cooling trend with upper 20s
midweek, and lower 20s next weekend.
There is certainly potential for lower temperatures than what is
currently forecast for next weekend. NBM deterministic is closer
to the 60th percentile, with the 25th percentile having highs
in the lower to middle 30s and lows in the lower to middle
teens. Cluster analysis shows very stark differences between
ensemble systems. The ECMWF has a much deeper and colder trough
moving through next weekend while the GEFS does not. Which
solution plays out will determine how cold temperatures get.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
For the 00z TAFS, aviation conditions will be deteriorating this
evening and overnight with MVFR ceilings beginning to develop
shortly after the onset of these TAFS. As a front begins to move
into the area this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along and ahead of the front with the
most coverage expected after 04z and continuing into around
sunrise. BBG may have convection continuing slightly longer into
Monday morning. Gusty southerly winds will veer around to the
northwest after the frontal passage. Flight conditions will
likely diminish into IFR this evening and overnight, with
conditions improving after 14z-16z Monday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Lindenberg