Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/22/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
906 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is possible tonight.
- Fresh snow cover could cause overnight low temperatures to fall
into the single digits tonight. Otherwise, temperatures Friday
and Friday night should be close to normal.
- There is a 15 to 25% chance of light snow over portions of north
central and northeastern SD into west central MN Sunday
through late Sunday night. Little to no accumulation is expected.
- Average to slightly below average temperatures this weekend and
around 5 to 10 degrees below average early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 117 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
At 1 PM CST, other than overcast skies on the Prairie Coteau and
west central Minnesota, the CWA is basically sunny or mostly sunny
with some higher level clouds streaming by. Temperatures under the
cloudy skies are in the upper teens to mid 20s (also the area with
the most snowfall the other day), while sunny sky areas were warming
through the 20s into the low 30s. Winds were northwest at 5 to 15
mph, with some areas east in the CWA gusting to around 25 mph at
times.
Surface high pressure is over the Missouri River valley region of
the CWA. It is forecast to re-align along the Dakotas border with
Minnesota by 12Z Friday. If the clouds over the eastern zones
dissipate or continue their move off into Minnesota, the portion of
the CWA that received 2in to 5-6in of snow Tuesday night into
Wednesday could be staring a clear sky/light wind night square in
the face; meaning there is the potential for low temperatures over
this new snowfield to bottom out a good 5 to 10 degrees (or more)
lower than surrounding bare ground areas. Have attempted to draw in
that potential some in the min T forecast grid, while maintaining
bordering CWA integrity with neighbors. There could also be some fog
on/near this snow field later tonight as winds go light and
temp/dewpoint depressions narrow to just a degree or two at the
surface. Also worth noting, the HREF skycover guidance is hinting
that the scattered coverage higher-level cloudiness happening now
will be ongoing overnight, which could end up pumping the breaks on
snowfield ultra-cold low temperatures, and on fog development.
During the day on Friday, there is an attempt made for low level WAA
over the CWA, in particular across the western third of forecast
zones (Missouri River valley region), in response to lee of the
Rockies/Black Hills surface pressure falls. So, fully expecting high
temperatures to warm into (at least) the low to mid 40s across much
of central and north central South Dakota.
Something to watch, though, is how far south into the CWA a shallow
cold airmass can push Friday night. The latest RAP output shows a
cold front beginning to work into Corson County by 00Z Saturday,
potentially reaching as far south as a line from Pierre to Miller to
Watertown to near Appleton, MN by 12Z Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Starting out the long term on Saturday, models are consistent on a
ridge overhead with zonal winds turning southwesterly. Just west of
the ridge, the low continues to spin off the coast of WA/OR with a
trough, south of this low, extending over the Pacific Ocean. The
ridge overhead will slide eastward with a negative shortwave forming
over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan/northern MT along with several
embedded shortwaves/pulses over the Rockies Saturday evening. At the
surface, an elongated area of low pressure will form over this area,
pushing east/southeast with the broad surface low extending from the
Northern Plains southward through Texas by 12Z Sunday. The low then
track east/northeast Sunday into Monday with the upper level waves
following behind.
Models keep most of the precip along the ND/Canadian border Saturday
night through Sunday (closer to the 700-850mb low skirting east
within this wave). However, ENS brings the chance of precip a bit
further south, brushing our northern/northeastern CWA Sunday through
early Monday as it indicates the wave aloft plunging further south
than GEPS/GEFS. NBM does a good job indicating this with pops of 15-
25%, highest along the ND/SD border, with Ptype being mainly snow.
EC meteograms do indicate a 10-15% chance that ptype could be light
freezing rain/drizzle at 8D3 and less than 10% chance at KATY mixed
in with the snow early Sunday. EC soundings at 8D3/KATY shows a
potential warm nose (and dry air above this) with GEFS soundings for
these locations keeps the column at or below freezing indicating all
snow (which GEFS plumes do indicate). Low confidence exists on this
potential as of now. No ice accumulation expected with little to no
snow accumulations.
Otherwise, behind the system, high pressure moves in and will be the
dominant weather pattern through the midweek, keeping the area dry
and quiet. Aloft, winds will mainly be zonal through the midweek as
models indicate a broad positive tilted trough moving west to east
over the CONUS with lots of variability between the models on track
and intensity and whether it the pattern remains phased together or
becomes split flow. Both EC/GEFS do hint at a possible lee low
forming near CO/OK/TX area Wednesday and tracking northeast through
end of next week. Depending on track this may bring the return of
snow (under 20% chance for now). Confidence is low this far out on
the overall pattern and where/if precip will fall and where.
Temps will be around average to a few degrees below average for the
weekend. As that high moves in early next week, it will bring in
colder air with it with 850mb temps ranging to the single digits
below zero to -11C with the coldest air over the northern CWA with
GEFS being the most aggressive on this colder air. Temps are
forecasted to run about 5 to 10 degrees below average. Even colder
air is forecasted to move in for the end of the week (again GEFS
being the most aggressive) with 850mb temps ranging from -10 to -13C
by early Saturday morning with this colder air hanging around at
least through the early following week. Latest NBM has a 30 to 60%
chance of low temperatures below zero by Sunday morning (12/1) and
30-55% chance Monday morning (12/2). CPC highlights this well with a
slight risk (20%) of "Much Below Normal Temperatures" 11/28-12/4 and
a moderate (40% chance) over the north central CWA 11/28-11/30.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
tonight and through the day Friday. The exception will be across
far eastern parts of the area where some patchy fog and MVFR cigs
may develop late tonight into Friday morning. KATY may be
affected.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
548 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Diminishing winds and areas of rain this afternoon will give
way to a small chance (20%) of drizzle developing into tonight.
Temperatures should largely stay above freezing to mitigate
the threat of freezing drizzle.
- Active weather returns early next week with generally low to
medium (20 to 50%) chances for minor amounts of snow with a
couple systems Monday through Thanksgiving Day. Could be minor
impacts to holiday travel.
- Slight warming trend into this weekend, then below normal
temperatures next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Diminishing winds and drizzle potential into tonight:
Broad occluded cyclone continues to slowly depart through the Great
Lakes region. Lingering snow impacting portions of central and
southwest Wisconsin since last night switched to all rain by midday
as temperatures continue to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Winds have been gusty behind this departing system with gusts
commonly in the 30 to 40 mph range. Gusts higher than that have been
few and far between, so have canceled the wind advisory for
southwest Wisconsin and Clayton County early.
The pronounced trowal with this occluded system continues to wrap
around back through the Mississippi River valley this afternoon,
bringing a tongue of increasing low level moisture into the local
area. Forecast soundings show increasing depth of low level
saturation through this afternoon, especially along and east of the
Mississippi River. While synoptic scale forcing will gradually
weaken heading into this evening, the RAP shows a 700-600mb band of
frontogenesis developing over the region which may interact with the
1+ km deep low level saturation to produce areas of drizzle. This is
hinted at by some high resolution composite reflectivity guidance,
such as the NamNest and the HRRR. While confidence is low to medium
in drizzle potential, it does look to be more favored where minimum
temperatures tonight will be at or above freezing. Will have to keep
an eye on trends this evening, but currently not anticipating
potential for freezing drizzle.
Active, colder weather early next week for pre-holiday travel:
A drier airmass and upper level ridging will bring a break from the
breezy/windy conditions and active weather Friday through the
weekend. The next system makes landfall on the West Coast early
Saturday, with the wave(s) traversing the northern US and southern
Canada and eventually reaching the Upper Midwest by late Sunday.
Whether this arrives as a singular, stronger wave (riding the
US/Canada border) or 2 weaker split waves remains in question, but
there is ensemble agreement for some light snow potential locally.
There is about a 40 to 60% probability for at least measurable snow
(0.1") north of I-90, but only a 20% or less chance for 1" or more.
Somewhat active weather is expected to continue in the busy pre-
Thanksgiving travel days early next week. However, there are few
overall forecast details to hang one`s hat on at this time, and
ensemble guidance is split on snow potential that far out. ENS
probabilities suggest around 40% for 1" or more of snow late
Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day while GEFS is closer to 10%. There
is more confidence in the temperature pattern dropping below normal
by Monday, staying chilly through at least Thanksgiving Day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Main aviation concerns this evening continue to revolve around
winds and low ceilings across the forecast area. Gusty
winds should continue to diminish through the night tonight,
remaining from the north/northwest through the period. What
looks to stick around is the low stratus currently across the
area, with MVFR to IFR cigs forecast. There is some variability
between the different models, but there does remain some signal
for a few pockets of LIFR to develop late tonight/early Friday
morning (mainly across SE MN). Have maintained the previous
mention this issuance, but will continue to monitor trends this
evening. Otherwise, guidance would suggest ceilings will be slow
to improve on Friday, so have continued to trend that way.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kurz
AVIATION...EMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A long duration rain event with mountain snow showers is currently
underway with rain and snow likely to linger through the weekend.
This beneficial rainfall comes after a prolonged dry spell and is
welcomed as no impacts are expected from this system. A brief break
in precipitation is expected Friday afternoon but otherwise we will
remain showery and cool through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1001 PM EST Thursday...We have increased southeasterly
downslope winds from Rutland County northward along the western
Slopes of the Green Mountains for the 10-14Z time frame Friday.
The secondary surface low southeast of Long Island lifts
northward overnight, and is associated with an intensifying
850mb easterly jet. Don`t think we`ll see full mixing based on
low-level stability profiles, but gusts up to 40 mph are likely
for an hour or two around daybreak based on latest HRRR and 00Z
NAM3. We`ll continue to monitor in the event the low-level jet
strengthens more than currently expected.
Also seeing melting layer drop to between 1500-2000ft
based on KCXX radar, and that`s about where it should remain
through the remainder of the overnight. A slushy 1-2" snow
accumulation is expected in the 1500-2000ft elevational band
with some evidence of accumulation on higher elevation roads,
especially in the northern Adirondacks. Higher snowfall totals
will occur about 2000ft with subfreezing temperatures,
especially in the northern Adirondacks. The high peaks of the
Adirondacks should see an additional 4-8" overnight at summit
level, but again, just wet conditions for the majority of
motorists across the region except for the highest elevation
roadways. Previous discussion follows.
Previous Discussion...We continue to see a complex storm system
impacting the northeastern US this afternoon with widespread
rainfall and mountain snow showers impacting Vermont and
northern New York. Presently, an anomalously strong upper level
low is situated across the Ohio River Valley with a surface low
displaced to the southwest of the upper low center. In addition,
we have begun to observe a new double barrel low pressure
system developing near Benchmark. The strong upper low to the
west has cut off the supply of cold air and have funneled the
coldest air across central and southern New York where the bulk
of snowfall has been seen thus far. The coastal low is actually
helping to keep the warmer air locked into the region as we see
the onset of increasing easterly flow off the western Atlantic.
The precipitation currently overspreading the region is tied to
a frontal occlusion attached the surface low well to our west.
Temperatures aloft are cooling slightly from a combination of
the wet-bulb effect and very subtle cold air advection. Webcams
have shown that Whiteface Mountain and Killington have both
switched over to snow with temperatures between 28 and 30
degrees. Other summit sites remain between 33 and 35 degrees but
those too will be dropping shortly as precipitation continues
to fall through dry air and cools off the surface.
As you head down below 4000 ft, we have seen just plain rain as
temperatures continue to hover in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Rainfall
thus far has ranged from just a few hundreths across northeastern
Vermont all the way to three tenths of an inch across the St.
Lawrence Valley. Basically, everything remains on track from the
previous forecast. Models have come into much better agreement
showing that warm air will remain entrenched in the lower
elevations, especially tonight and much of Friday to where we have
continued to fine tune our snow level grids. For tonight, we expect
snow levels to drop to about 2500 feet across northern New York but
will remain at or above 3800 ft across Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Thursday...Cold air will finally begin wrapping into
Vermont Friday afternoon and evening as the upper level low moves
into western Massachusetts/western Connecticut. However, the colder
air will likely coincide with a noticeable dry slot where the
majority of the late morning through early evening hours will have
very little, if any, precipitation falling across the region. Winds
during this time about 1000 ft will be easterly given the position
of the upper low which would favor some downslope conditions along
the western slopes and upslope across the eastern facing slopes. As
both the coastal low and surface low shift further offshore late
Friday night into Saturday morning, we will see wind shift back to a
more climatological northwest direction which will then begin the
upslope machine. Precipitation isn`t likely to be heavy Saturday or
Sunday but with continued upslope flow, we could easily see 1-2
inches of accumulation every 6 hours along the western slopes that
will add up over time.
Snow levels on Saturday will drop to 1800 to 2200 feet which will
allow for some mid-mountain snow accumulations but most of the
population centers for the North Country will continue to see rain
showers while the mountains get in on all the snow action. We will
see snow levels drop to 1200 feet Saturday night which may allow for
some very minor accumulations to occur along the foothills of the
Green Mountains but any accumulations will remain well under an inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Thursday...Vertically stacked low pressure will be
moving away into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday, leaving
northwesterly flow and orographically enhanced showers in its wake,
mainly in the morning hours before precipitation tapers off in the
afternoon. Snow levels will sit at about 1,000 to 2,000 feet
elevation. Everywhere below 1,000 feet is expected to see only rain
showers. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 0.20" are possible in
terrain areas, especially the Greens, while additional snowfall of
up to about 3 inches is possible above 2000 feet elevation.
Northwesterly wind gusts could reach up to 15-30 knots off the
departing low, perhaps up to 40 knots at the peaks and in
downsloping gusts on eastern slopes of the mountains. Highs Sunday
will be seasonable in the upper 30s to upper 40s, but may feel much
chillier (mid 20s to upper 30s) due to the wind. Gusty winds will
taper off a bit into the overnight hours on Sunday, but remain at
about 10-25 knots. Temperatures will fall into the 20s and lower 30s
overnight Sunday into early Monday, and precipitation will finally
come to a complete end by then.
There will be brief ridging and a break from precip on Monday before
another trough arrives Monday night/Tuesday with associated surface
low and occluding frontal boundary. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be
mild in the 40s during this period thanks to the brief ridging and
then influx of milder air with the system. This will raise snow
levels to above 3000 feet and produce mostly rain on Monday night
before cold air advection follows on Tuesday and snow levels could
plummet to 1000 feet again, allowing snow to mix in at these
elevations and higher before the system moves out Tuesday night.
There`s the potential at the onset of this system for some freezing
rain type precipitation to occur as model soundings produce a warm
nose, but it`s too soon to set any details on p-type in stone. Cold
air advection following the system could keep snow showers lingering
at high elevations into Wednesday. After this, models diverge on the
timing and placement of the next wave to come through the forecast
area late next week. Overnight lows are expected to take a plunge
into the teens to mid 20s by Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Generally a mix of MVFR and IFR
conditions areawide overnight along with periods of rain. Did
include a rain/snow mix after 03Z at KSLK, but with sfc
temperatures remaining slightly above freezing, shouldn`t be of
significant impact for aviation ground operations at KSLK.
Appears precipitation will become lighter during the late
morning and afternoon hours on Friday, and may even see a return
to VFR ceilings for a time Friday afternoon as mid-level dry
slot moves in from the east. Winds are light out of the north
and northeast early this evening. However, winds will be
increasing and becoming gusty during the pre-dawn into the
daylight hours on Friday as they shift NE and E. Strongest
winds will be at the KRUT TAF sites, possibly reaching 35kts
around 10Z Friday. LLWS is expected to dominate sites outside
of the wider valleys as easterly winds pick up over parts of
Vermont and increase at 2000 ft agl up to 40 to 45 knots. LLWS
is a concern mainly for SLK, RUT, MPV, and EFK. Most likely
timing for LLWS will be from 09Z to 18Z Friday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Chance SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Banacos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild afternoon temperatures Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as
upper level high pressure builds across western Kansas. Highs
each day in the lower 60s likely (>60% chance each day,
especially Saturday).
- Dry weather through at least Wednesday in a zonal jet stream
pattern across the Rockies.
- Probabilities of measurable precipitation, including snow,
increase by late Wednesday into Thursday (24hr QPF probs
increasing to 40+ %)
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a mid-upper level ridge
continuing to build and expand across the Rockies and High Plains.
Only a few high clouds have moved across western Kansas, but
otherwise very quiet weather continued, including a light/variable
wind across western Kansas as a surface high pressure ridge moves
across Kansas.
For tonight, southwestern Kansas will remain under the influence of
the departing surface high, but winds will slowly become southerly
late tonight into early Friday. Persistence is a pretty good
forecast method right now, so we will see lows tonight similar to
that of last night, generally in the mid to upper 20s. The overall
synoptic pattern will not change much on Friday, but as the air mass
gradually modifies after a recent cold front passage, we should see
afternoon temperatures exceed today`s highs by 6 to 8F across
western Kansas, resulting in highs right around 60F for most of our
forecast area.
Heading into the weekend, a strong upper tropospheric Pacific jet
core will push into the western CONUS and across the Rockies, which
will foster a deepening of the leeside trough in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. A lead shortwave
trough moving out across the Northern Rockies and Dakotas will
result in a cold front late Sunday across the Central Plains. Ahead
of the front, more afternoon temps of the lower 60s are likely
across much of southwest Kansas. As the leeside trough strengthens,
so will the southerly winds, although the MSLP gradient will not be
all that intense, so winds Saturday afternoon will likely be 10-15
mph.
An extended polar jet core will overspread much of the CONUS with
high zonal index, so the zonal pattern will lead to continued dry
weather. Now, as we head deeper into the holiday week, there
continue to be indications of a pattern shift as the large scale
pattern amplifies just a bit, marked by a fairly strong disturbance,
shown by all three of the major global models. This system, though,
will still be moving east across the Central CONUS within a fairly
fast/zonal hemispheric regime. This will prevent substantial Gulf of
Mexico moisture transport into Kansas, but fairly strong large scale
baroclinic zone in vicinity of the jet core would go a long way in
aiding in upward vertical motion for at least some light
precipitation wherever the Wednesday-Thursday wave comes out.
Nevertheless, there is fairly high confidence in a low level air
mass being cold enough for snow, so even light amounts of
precipitation with Wednesday-Thursday system would have to be
monitored closely for potential winter impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
VFR flight category with winds in general under 12 kts for all
the terminals during the time period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1047 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north tonight, bringing rain to the
area overnight. The broad system will be slow to exit, with
chances for precipitation continuing through Saturday.
Conditions will start to dry out Sunday into Monday as the low
pressure lifts into the Canadian Maritimes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1035 PM Update... Latest RAP13 sfc pressure analysis as of 04Z
shows the center of low pressure located over Long Island, NY
with the h5 low further to the southwest over PA. Radar trends
this evening have shown the vast majority of the rainfall
streaming from southeast to northwest over NH and points south
and west with a sfc trough leading mostly to just light drizzle
over ME. Latest forecast guidance brings the low into the Hudson
River Valley by Friday morning with our area on the northern
periphery. Despite this, hi-res guidance including the HRRR
continues to advertise a brief period of light to moderate rain
to lift northward early Friday morning in association with the
LLJ, dropping up to around 1/2" of additional rainfall on
average. Therefore, while I lowered the QPF forecast for much
of ME there are still indications that most locations should end
with at least 1/3-1/2 inch of rain by late Friday morning.
East-northeasterly winds have been on the increase this evening
as well with coastal sites now gusting up to around 30 mph and
offshore sites nearing 50 mph. The HRRR has been handling these
winds pretty well this evening and the 00Z run indicates the
potential for a brief period of gusts nearing 45 mph along the
coast early Friday morning. In addition, strong downsloping
winds northwest of the Whites could approach 50 mph for a brief
time.
Previously...
600 PM Update... Made some minor adjustments to PoPs based on
latest radar trends and sfc observations. This generally delayed
them some over much of western ME where weak forcing for ascent
is still present but did introduce drizzle to the forecast based
on observations. Otherwise, the inherited forecast remains
largely unchanged at this time.
Previously...
Surface circulation continues to organize south of Long Island
this afternoon as cyclogenesis takes place. This area of low
pressure will give the final nudge north for rain that has
mainly been focused in SW NH today. Showers begin, then become
more steady overnight as this low wraps inland over central New
England.
Accompanying this low will be a brief but potent low level jet
developing off the NH/southern ME coast overnight. Daytime
deterministic solutions have this as a 40-60kt jet through
925/850mb, thus have increase surface gusts for much of tonight.
HREF min gusts do push 30-40 mph along the immediate coast and
southern NH tonight. Another zone of enhanced winds may be the
downslope locations NW of the Whites and western ME mountains
where gusts to 40 mph can`t be ruled out for a 4 or 5 hour
window after midnight.
As these winds move north through the area overnight, so too
will more steady rainfall. Rain rates will be heaviest after
midnight for the southern CWA, and after daybreak for western ME
and the Midcoast. No flooding is expected with very dry
antecedent conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A dry slot moves northward through NH and southern ME Friday
morning and early afternoon. This should offer a quick shutoff
of both precipitation and the aforementioned gusts from
overnight, but only up to the Kennebec Valley/western ME
mountains.
There was still a lot of discrepancy between guidance solutions
heading into Friday night. This revolves around how resilient
the dry slot will be as well as general progression of the low
consolidation to the west. Additional onshore flow from the SE
will advect moisture in later Fri afternoon to begin another
period of stratiform precipitation across the area overnight.
Rain is expected for the lowlands, but snow will feature more
widely at greater elevations in the Whites, western ME
mountains, and western NH Greenway, especially overnight. In
general, accumulating snow may be hard to come by outside of the
elevated Whites, but flakes will be about.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
04Z Long Term Forecast Update...
Latest ensemble and global forecast guidance continues to
indicate unsettled conditions to persist on Saturday as low
pressure drifts to the Canadian Maritimes. While doing so,
colder air will be brought down from the north with
northwesterly flow and this could allow for a brief period of
wet snow to mix in south of the mountains before ending. Another
s/wv trough looks to cross on Sunday, bringing additional
rain/snow showers that will be mainly confined to the
north/mountains. Brief s/wv ridging builds on Monday, allowing
for dry and mainly sunny conditions. The pattern becomes more
unsettled again mid-late week as the next storm system
approaches the region.
Broad upper low will be centered near Cape Cod Saturday
morning, and waves of energy rotating to the north and west over
the area will prolong cloudy and rainy conditions for at least
the morning hours with snow toward the north and higher
elevations (although a few flakes may mix in early farther to
the south). The upper low will gradually move off to the
northeast through the day and into Saturday night, and there`s
still come uncertainty among the models on how quickly this
occurs, but the general trend will be decreasing precip chances
south of the mountains going into the afternoon and evening,
although could be more Saturday night per the ECMWF. A surface
low will also be deepening as it lifts northward into Nova
Scotia, and with the tightening gradient expected breezy
conditions to develop by the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30
mph possible.
Once precip tapers off, skies are expected to remain partly-
mostly cloudy south of the mountains through Saturday night
while the mountains stay cloudy with scattered upslope snow
showers.
Stacked low pressure will remain near the Canadian Maritimes on
Sunday leaving northern New England in a northwest flow, which
will be on the breezy side with a tight pressure gradient. Based
on latest forecast soundings, we`re looking like upwards of
25-30mph. Rain and snow showers will likely continue across the
north and mountains, and a few of these may occur downwind of
the mountains if we can get enough daytime instability and
Froude numbers are high enough (the NAM is more supportive of
this) as there will be an upper trough nearby.
The upslope precip in the mountains will wind down either
Sunday night or early Monday as high pressure briefly builds
into the region bringing a dry day with seasonable temperatures
mainly in the 40s. As quickly as the high moves in, it will
quickly give way to an upper trough and surface low moving
across the Great Lakes that bringS the next shot at widespread
precipitation Monday night and into Tuesday. Temperature profiles
may be cold enough to support some snow or even a mix Monday
night or Tuesday morning, but confidence is low and would probably
be across northern areas if anywhere.
After this system passes, there is a good support among the GFS
and ECWMF ensembles members with dry conditions on Wednesday
(other than mountain upslope snow showers). Going into next
Thursday/Thanksgiving, the operational GFS is hinting at low
pressure potentially bringing some snow to the area, but this is
the faster solution with many of its ensemble members (as well
as the ECWMF) keeping conditions mostly dry. The NBM PoPs of
slight chance across southern areas capture this well.
Lastly, there is pretty high confidence in a cooler airmass
arriving toward the end of next week, and even though this is
just beyond the extended forecast, there is a signal for what
could be the first measurable snowfall of the season for many
areas. This would potentially be in the day 8 or 9 time period,
and as always this far out, details (such as amounts and timing)
are uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR and IFR cigs are expected overnight tonight
along with increasing east winds and RA. Winds may gust 20 to 30
kts tonight as low pressure drifts into central New England.
Winds slacken Friday morning as well as some improvement in
restrictions with IFR becoming MVFR and perhaps VFR later in the
afternoon. Another round of lowered ceilings arrives Friday
night with RA. More in the way of SN may be possible along the
western ME mountains and the Whites Friday night.
Long Term...Rain along with IFR to MVFR ceilings expected at
most TAF sites on Saturday, but conditions look to improve to
VFR late in the day into Saturday night with the exception of
HIE and LEB, where MVFR ceilings and possibly rain and snow
showers continue through Sunday or even Sunday night. .
Elsewhere, mostly VFR expected Sunday and Monday with northwest
wind gusts 25-30 kt possible on Sunday. A few rain or snow
showers may also develop Sunday afternoon. Another low pressure
system looks to bring increasing precipitation chances Monday
night and Tuesday along with flight restrictions.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...A period of Gales as well as increased wave
heights is expected tonight. Low pressure strengthening south of
Long Island will track north, with a strong jet moving along
the coastal waters tonight. A window of 35 to 40 kt gusts will
be possible overnight, before subsiding Friday morning. However,
this will be part of a broadening area of low pressure across
the Northeast. Another round of increased winds and building
waves is likely into Friday night.
Long Term...SCA conditions expected on Saturday as low pressure
lifts northward toward Nova Scotia but remaining mostly east of
the waters. With more of an eastward forecast, the potential
for Gales during the day Saturday has lowered but will still be
possible Saturday night and Sunday as offshore flow increases
with a tightening gradient. Conditions may be able to fall below
SCA levels late Monday or Monday night as high pressure briefly
builds in before winds increase ahead of and also behind a low
pressure and front that look to cross around Tuesday. Another
area of low pressure may approach the waters toward the end of
next week, but confidence is low on timing and potential track
of the low.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152>154.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ151.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Tubbs/Combs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
530 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy freezing fog possible tonight and Friday night.
- One last chance to get some outdoor work done on Sunday with
highs in the 40s.
- Turning much colder next week, with our first taste of arctic
air looking increasingly likely for Thanksgiving weekend.
- No significant winter systems expected to impact the region
over the next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
A surface low as been tracking south across Lake Michigan through
the day, with high pressure over the Dakotas keeping the ceaseless
northwest winds going through this afternoon. The good news is that
through Saturday morning, the Dakotas high will be slowly working
across the MPX area. This means we finally lose the winds on Friday,
but the big uncertainty is what happens with the cloud cover.
Looking at RAP soundings, we look to have a scenario where we have a
thin moisture layer that gets trapped beneath an inversion. This
time of year, that translates into very stubborn stratus layers that
are poorly resolved by the models. As the high pressure moves in on
Friday, the loss of cyclonic flow should start to clear out the low
clouds, but those low clouds look to be replaced by mid and upper
level clouds. The biggest issue with cloud cover will come during
the overnight periods the next two nights. Winds will become light
and variable overnight in western MN and then across the entire area
Friday night as the surface ridge axis moves through. With this
setup, anywhere that sees clear skies tonight in western MN will
likely have that clearing filled in with freezing fog, with that
freezing fog threat spreading across pretty much the entire area
Friday night. Again, the big uncertainty is what cloud coverage will
look like the next two nights. Given the uncertainty with cloud
cover, we don`t have much fog mention, but anyone that manages to
get light winds and clear skies over the next two night will have
the threat of freezing fog.
For the weekend, models continue to show a shortwave working across
the international border Sunday night/Monday. This shortwave will
drag an inverted surface trough across the area Sunday into Monday
morning. The best forcing and signal for precipitation continues to
be across the international border and Lake Superior, though we
could see some light rain/snow across central MN and northwest WI
late Sunday into Monday. The main impact locally of this inverted
trough will be the WAA out ahead of it. This WAA will send highs
into the 40s for much of the MPX area on Sunday, giving us one last
chance to get some outdoor work done before some real winter cold
comes slamming in for the end of November.
As for next week, the mean 200mb flow from the EPS shows the primary
jet being a southern stream feature that will be well to our south.
This means the primary storm track will be to our south. However,
there will be a northern stream jet of the northwest variety coming
down from northwest Canada into the Dakotas. This northwest jet is
what will open us up to getting our first real shot of arctic air of
the season over the extended Thanksgiving holiday weekend. This is a
cold a dry pattern, so it looks unlikely we`ll see any significant
weather systems up this far north, but given the multiple streams of
flow near us, we will have to potential for seeing some quick
hitting waves capable of producing some light precip. Given the
temperatures we will have next week, any precipitation we see will
come in the form of snow. At this point though, deterministic and
ensemble systems would favor any snow we see next week being more of
the cosmetic/nuisance variety as opposed to a big dump of snow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
High end MVFR is expected to drop into low MVFR/IFR territory over
the next few hours. Once again, models have not been handling
cigs well today. Generally kept things a little more optimistic
than guidance, which had more IFR than MVFR. Ceilings will rise
by early Friday afternoon, with VFR expected for all except KEAU
by the end of the period.
Winds will remain elevated for a few more hours before trending
down. A surface high is expected to move overhead tomorrow,
leading to winds 5kts or less.
KMSP...No additional concerns
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR w/ chc -SHSN. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Dye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
935 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain showers continue over the north tonight
through Friday.
- Light lake effect rain/snow showers are possible in the east
half of the U.P. Saturday. Little to no accumulations are
expected.
- Active weather with chances for accumulating snow return next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
The band of rain showers that camped out over the central UP for
much of today is tapering off to lingering upslope rain showers
across the north-central UP with the surface low south of Lake
Michigan opening up to a surface trough and the midlevel low moving
towards the Mid Atlantic. Winds continue to fall back, but should
still be able to gust to around 20mph across much of the UP
tonight...particularly across our eastern zones where our pressure
gradient remains fairly tight. Winds to the west have been knocked
back slightly to align with latest observations and model guidance,
otherwise the forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
Afternoon satellite imagery and RAP analysis show the sfc low has
made it just south of central Lake MI. Aloft, the mid level low is
analyzed over Lake Erie and OH with a ridge building in over the
Plains. Satellite imagery also highlighted some well defined
gravity waves earlier this afternoon in the low cloud deck near the
MN Arrowhead shores of Lake Superior. This is where some weak sfc to
850 mb CAA, low level fgen, and pressure rises resulted in northwest
katabatic winds. A few ship observations came in with storm force
winds gusting into the low to mid 50 kt range! SAR wind data also
shows that these winds extended into the northern open waters of
LSZ162. Outside the marine impacts, pressure falls this morning and
the tight pressure gradient resulted in northerly wind gusts up to
35 to 45 mph in the north half of the UP with 58 mph recorded at
Houghton County Memorial Airport. This ended up causing some power
outages this morning, but winds have already begun to weaken this
afternoon. North winds have fallen below 15 mph over the eastern
half of the UP with gusts still in the 15 to 25 mph range over the
west. North winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected for tonight.
Numerous showers have continued to dominate the central UP with
scattered showers over the west and isolated shower to dry
conditions over the east. Some clearing is even observed on
satellite over the Lake MI shores of Upper MI and northern Lower MI.
The sfc low is progged to descend over the rest of Lake MI into this
evening, dissipating tonight as the mid level low spins toward the
Atlantic Coast. This yields a eastward shift in the dominating band
of showers before some dry air moves in from the north. Model
soundings show the drier airmass intruding above the the 5-7 kft
level, diminishing shower coverage and overall QPF. That said,
scattered upslope and lake enhanced showers are expected tonight
over the north. An additional few hundreths to 0.15 inches are
expected over the western 2/3 of Upper MI this afternoon through
tonight. Up to 0.6" of additional rain is forecasted over portions
of Baraga and Marquette Counties aided by the upslope flow; most of
the QPF is expected to fall during the next 6 hours. Overall, wet
snow and rainfall over the past 24 hours has brought around 0.5 to 2
inches of liquid precip which should help improve drought conditions
across the UP.
Otherwise, temps currently in the upper 30s to mid 40s are expected
to settle into the mid 30s to low 40s tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
Mostly quiet weather returns this weekend as ridging over the west-
central CONUS nudges into the Upper Great Lakes this Friday,
however, we wont completely dry out as northerly flow over Lake
Superior and weak lake enhancement provide some light rain/drizzle
through the day. Favored upslope locations in the central U.P. could
pick up a few hundredths, otherwise not expecting anymore widespread
showers. Some light snow is possible in the Michigamme Highlands as
temperatures head toward freezing Friday night. Upstream, a
shortwave diving southeast across northern Ontario Saturday kicks
off a weak surface low over James Bay. Though the better synoptic
forcing remains to our north, a shot of colder 850mb temps near -8
to -10C will provide enough lake induced instability for showers in
the east half of the UP given northwest flow. Lake effect showers
will likely start off as rain but transition to light snow as wet-
bulbing processes take effect and colder air filters in the column.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected, though some heavier
showers could provide a light dusting for Alger and northern Luce
counties in the evening.
A brief period of height rises on Sunday will put an end to lake
effect showers and our attention then turn to a deepening trough
across the Plains digging into the Upper Midwest Monday into
Tuesday. Current deterministic guidance and their respective
ensemble packages are still in disagreement on the placement of the
surface low and associated snowfall/gusty winds. Euro ensemble is
much further north and faster with a surface feature in the vicinity
of the UP/Lake Superior by Monday morning, while GEFS low locations
are weaker and move the low through lower Michigan late Monday into
Tuesday. Ensemble meteograms only show light snow accumulations up
to a few inches by Tuesday evening.
Looking towards Thanksgiving, ensembles are in agreement in a period
of negative 500mb anomalies across the central US, supporting active
weather with chances for accumulating lake effect snow in the Great
Lakes region and possible hazardous travel conditions during the
late week holiday timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
The coverage of rain showers will diminish across the area this
evening; however, mainly IFR conditions are expected to persist
across the area through the TAF period. For tonight, there is ~30%
chance for showers streaming off Lake Superior, but best confidence
in showers is at SAW. Northerly winds will diminish through this
evening, becoming mainly 10-20 kt for tonight persisting into
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
Surface low pressure near 998 mb is making its way down the
long axis of Lake Michigan this afternoon, further weakening as
it continues southeast into Indiana this evening. With the
pressure gradient lessening over Lake Superior, widespread
northerly gales are expected to diminish through the afternoon;
however, localized terrain driven storm force gusts upwards of
55+ knots were observed by passing ships just offshore of the
Minnesota Arrowhead just before Noon EST, prompting a short-
fused upgrade to Storm Warnings in far western Lake Superior.
These enhanced gusts should continue to dwindle below gale force
criteria by at least midnight tonight.
Winds turn out of the north-northwest Friday gusting to near 25
knots over the east-central lake, then continue diminishing below 20
knots by Saturday evening, calming further into Sunday. Gusty winds
return late Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast
to impact Upper Michigan. As of this forecast package, confidence is
low (~40%) on the low pressure center location and strength. A low
closer to the UP could bring northwest gales to Lake Superior while
a more distant low through Lower Michigan could keep winds marginal.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
413 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024
Atmospheric River continues to remain stationary across the North
Bay with increasing flood risks developing. Prolonged rainfall is
additionally resulting in an increased risk of landslides, downed
trees, and downed powerlines across the North Bay. More
widespread moderate rain will spread south on Friday into the rest
of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024
Key Messages:
-Aerial Flood Warning now in effect for central Sonoma County
-Numerous Flood Advisories cover the North Bay
-Flood Watch in effect for the North Bay through Saturday morning
-Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM tonight through 10 PM tomorrow
-High Surf Advisory in effect through Friday morning
A stationary rain band producing moderate to at times heavy showers
continues to train over the North Bay with the highest rain totals
focused in Sonoma County. Most areas in Sonoma and Napa counties
have seen between 5" to 10" of rain in the last 48 hours. Locally
higher amounts between 10" to 15" have been observed across the
higher elevations of the coastal and interior North Bay Mountains.
Southwards in Marin County, rain totals are slightly lower with most
sites seeing between 3" to 6" over the last two days. Rain totals
drop off significantly outside of the North Bay with most sites in
the northern San Francisco Peninsula and East Bay seeing less than
an inch so far. Reports of flooding and downed trees have started to
increase across the North Bay. As such an Aerial Flood Warning is
now in effect for portions of central Sonoma County, including urban
Santa Rosa, with creeks and streams starting to rise in the vicinity
of the city. Heading into Friday, we can expect more widespread
moderate showers to spread into the rest of the Bay Area and Central
Coast late tonight through tomorrow. This will bring an additional
2" to 5" across the North Bay with locally higher totals possible in
the elevated terrain. The majority of the Bay Area and coastal
mountain ranges will see between 1.5" to 3" of rain while portions
of the South Bay and Central Coast will see up to an inch. A slight
(less than 10%) chance of thunderstorms will continue through Friday
evening. The main things to focus on heading into Friday are 1)
increased flood risk across the North Bay, 2) flood risk across the
rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast as rain spreads southward,
and 3) elevated wind threat tonight into tomorrow.
Showers have not let up over the North Bay in over a day and a half.
As such two things are happening 1) streams and creeks in Sonoma
County are starting to rise with many already reaching the action to
minor flood stages. Among the most notable, official forecast points
have the Russian River at Geyserville peaking at minor flood stage,
Russian River at Guerneville peaking at the action stage, and the
Mark West Creek near Mirabel Heights peaking at the moderate flood
stage tomorrow evening. Streams and creeks throughout the North Bay
are expected to continue rising as moderate to at times heavy rain
continues to train over the North Bay today and tomorrow. This
brings us to our second point, 2) soil saturation. Prior to this
event soils were fairly dry across the North Bay, but, after the
last two days, soils are becoming fairly saturated. As the soil
becomes more saturated, it is able to absorb less water and results
in increased surface runoff, resulting in more widespread flooding.
As such, a Flood Advisory remains in effect across the entire North
Bay through early Saturday morning and a more targeted Aerial Flood
Warning is now in effect for urban Santa Rosa. Elsewhere, flooding
potential will increase slightly across the rest of the Bay Area and
Central Coast as moderate showers spread southward Thursday night
into Friday. Soils remain dry in these regions which help to
slightly decrease flooding concern for this region. However,
nuisance flooding is still a possibility especially if moderate to
heavy showers train over a particular location for an extended
period of time.
Strong, gusty southerly winds return tonight with a Wind Advisory in
effect from 10 PM tonight to 10 PM tomorrow night along the coast
and across areas of elevated terrain. HRRR model guidance supports a
narrow frontal rainband developing overnight Thursday into Friday
and pushing southwards through the evening. Strong winds are
expected to develop ahead of and along this rain band but will
quickly ease after frontal passage occurs. Widespread wind gusts up
to 50 mph are possible but locally higher 60+ mph gusts may develop
above 2,500 feet. This will contribute to an increased risk of
downed trees and power outages, particularly across the North Bay,
as soils become saturated. Anyone who is able to should avoid being
out during the worst of the storm (early Friday morning through
Friday evening) should do so. If you have any outdoors decorations,
now is the time to secure them. If you have to be out on Friday,
make sure to leave extra time to get to your destination and avoid
driving through flood waters. Waters overtopping roadways may be
deeper and swifter than they appear and can result in a dangerous
situation developing. Flooding can be particularly hard to see in
the dark so use extra caution when traveling at night. Remember -
turn around, don`t drown.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024
Friday night through Saturday, light showers will continue across
the region in the wake of cold frontal passage. Totals from these
showers will be relatively minimal (amounting to less than a few
tenths of an inch) with a 10% chance of thunderstorms persisting
through the day on Saturday. However, the storm door remains open as
we see low pressure lingering off the coast of Washington/Oregon and
increased moisture transport into Central California through
midweek. While there is still some uncertainty as to how long rainy
conditions will persist for, it is looking increasingly likely that
rain will persist through midweek. As such, an additional 1" to 2"
of rain is expected across the North Bay, Santa Cruz and San Mateo
Mountains, and Santa Lucia Mountains from Sunday to Wednesday and up
to an inch of rain elsewhere. Some potential light at the end of the
tunnel, models have trended drier beginning Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday but, given uncertainty in the forecast almost a week out,
this may change as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024
Stratus continues to funnel through our region creating a mix of
IFR, MVFR, and VFR conditions. North Bay continues to have lower
visibility and ceilings as the showers remain pretty heavy. As the
heavier rain bands move over some of the terminals in SF Bay, East
Bay, and South Bay ceilings will lower to MVFR with a chance of IFR
conditions starting early Friday morning going into the afternoon.
Higher confidence that KHAF will be socked in with IFR conditions
with some moments of MVFR through the TAF period. Southerly winds
remain relatively breezy to strong with gusty winds near SF Bay
terminals. The gusty winds have eased a bit over the North Bay, but
will make a return late tonight for KSTS and early tomorrow morning
for KAPC. Otherwise, most sites will continue to see gusty
southerly winds through the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR as a heavier rain band have moved over the
terminal. Some models call for a break in MVFR ceilings near 08-09Z
but had low confidence to include at this moment. Higher confidence
that MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail after 14/15Z along with
occasional heavier rain bands from 15Z to the end of the TAF period.
Southerly winds have eased a bit with gusty winds diminishing. There
is a chance for moments gusty winds between now until 14Z but low
confidence to keep gusty winds prevailing through 14-15Z. Higher
confidence that winds start to rebuild after 15-16Z to breezy and
strong. Will monitor winds closely for any updated changes.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through most of the TAF period. There
is a chance for MVFR ceilings to develop tonight but confidence is
moderate. VCSH were added to the TAF closer to the end of the TAF
period, but confidence is low, as showers may start after 00Z.
Southerly winds will build to relatively breezy, but moderate
confidence of gusty winds forming by the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024
Widespread gale force winds will continue the hazardous marine
conditions. Winds will range between 25 knots to 40 knots. Seas
up to and just above 15 feet are anticipated with long period
swell continuing to roll in. Widespread rain showers will result
in gusty and erratic outflows and subsequent rough waters. Boating
conditions will improve this weekend, but still remain quite
hazardous, particularly to smaller vessels and crafts.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-530.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Friday for
CAZ006-502>505-509-512-514-515-517-518-530.
Flood Watch through late Friday night for CAZ502>506.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-SF Bay
N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Murdock
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