Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/20/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
751 PM MST Tue Nov 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold and breezy conditions through the remainder of today, with
gusty winds continuing across the Front Range mountains into
Wednesday.
- Dry weather by Wednesday, with a strong signal for above normal
temperatures through Saturday.
- Pattern changes on Sunday with a long duration light snow event
for the mountains.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM MST Tue Nov 19 2024
Skies are clearing nicely with most if not all of the mountain
snow gone. Most places will hold on to some wind overnight, but
temperatures are already close to the forecast lows. That will be
ok in the windier areas, but in most places we needed to drop the
forecast lows a little, and in spots that will have light winds
later tonight it could be quite a bit colder. The lower areas in
the mountain valleys and the South Platte valley on the plains are
question marks as far as whether there will be enough wind to hold
the temperatures up. For Denver too, we`ll probably have south
winds later as the mountain wave sharpens and it will be
interesting to see how much cooler that air is than the air
against the foothills. For now we just dropped things a little.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Nov 19 2024
Radar/satellite still show scattered convective snow showers
across the high country this afternoon. With some dry surface air,
most of the snow has been light and generally confined to the
higher mountain passes in our CWA. Would expect some minor (inch
or less) accumulations through this evening. Snow showers should
weaken through the evening hours as 700-500mb lapse rates decrease
and moisture depths quickly diminish.
Tonight will be cold across most of the forecast area, with lows
in the single digits across the high country and Lincoln county,
with upper teens to low 20s likely for the urban corridor and the
rest of the northeast plains. Winds should diminish overnight for
most, but not over the Front Range mountains and higher foothills.
We may see some brief mountain wave enhancement overnight as a
stable layer descends towards ridgetop. Cross-barrier flow remains
near 40-50kt, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see a few 60-70mph
gusts in the most wind prone areas above 9,000ft.
Wednesday should be a quiet day across most of the forecast area
as ridging begins to build into the region. High temperatures will
end up near-normal for the Denver metro (upper 40s or near 50F)
with mostly sunny skies. Some gusty near-ridgetop winds will
continue tomorrow with 500mb winds near 30-40kt, but winds will be
much weaker elsewhere. Wednesday will be just the start of a
pretty substantial warming trend into the weekend... but more on
that below.
&&
.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Nov 19 2024
A ridge will be situated over Colorado Wednesday night through
Saturday. This will bring dry and warm weather conditions for the
entire CWA. Much of the region could see above seasonal
temperatures, particularly Saturday where compressional heating and
down-sloping is strongest.
Overnight Saturday into Sunday, an upper level trough will break
down the ridge over Colorado, bringing zonal flow and Pacific
moisture into the region. The GEFS shows a shortwave trough entering
Oregon by Sunday night, and as it moves eastward on Monday, the flow
aloft could turn a little more southwestern in our region. This will
create a weak lee-trough, which will get pushed off by a cold front.
Models disagree on the timing of the cold front, but there will
be consistent moisture transport into the mountains on Monday,
with QPF values above 0.10" at times according to the GEFS,
resulting in a few inches of snow accumulating by Monday night. In
terms of precipitation chances with the lee-trough, some
precipitation could fall in the Plains according to the ECMWF
Ensemble. But, there are better precipitation chances after the
cold front moves through. Regardless, models do agree that
temperatures will be cooler after Monday and into later next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 538 PM MST Tue Nov 19 2024
VFR through Wednesday. West winds are diminishing about on
schedule and the should remain under 20 knots after 01z except
possible gusts of 20 to 25 knots at KBJC. With the Front Range
mountain wave expected to sharpen 06z-09z, winds at KDEN/KAPA
should become south or southeast around 10 knots. KBJC winds are
always difficult in these situations. Eventually the base of the sharper
wave will likely retreat into the foothills with winds becoming
easterly at KBJC, but it could be near the base of the wave with
occasional gusty west winds or even a steadier west wind. The TAF
has the most likely solution of a period when it could be either
way in the morning and then some kind of east wind.
Another complication is the potential for a Denver cyclone in the
low level cool air Wednesday afternoon. The HRRR has been trending
towards this idea. It`s a bit unusual to see that and the
mountain wave at the same time, but it does happen. If it does,
wind speeds will likely be fairly light hopefully reducing the
impact of any wind shifts.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Ideker/JK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
554 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing potential for snow showers in northern Iowa Wednesday.
Accums light (<1"), but wintry travel impacts may occur due to brief
visibility reductions and degraded road conditions.
- Windy and colder Wednesday into Thursday. Afternoon highs only in
the 30s to near 40.
- Dry with moderating temperatures this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
The shortwave trough that delivered widespread rain to the area
yesterday has since pushed off to the north as it becomes
absorbed within the deeper, primary upper low circulation over
the Dakotas. Gusty westerly winds have persisted through the day
on the southern periphery of the surface low reflection over
MN. Several sites in the northern Iowa have gusted above 40 mph
today with 25 to 35 mph elsewhere.
Winds relax a bit this evening and overnight as the pressure
gradient weakens, however winds will be quick to ramp back up
Wednesday morning as the upper low pivots east and advects a colder
airmass into the state. The strong cold air advection steepens lapse
rates through the boundary layer, enough to create weak sbcape and
generate scattered to widespread shower activity by late morning and
afternoon over much of MN and WI and bleeding south into
northern Iowa. Snow will be the preferred ptype given a
saturated and nearly isothermal layer through the DGZ and just
above temps only around freezing at the surface. The HRRR and
other hires guidance show transient bands of shallow convective
snow shower activity including visibility drops below a mile.
While accumulations are expected to remain light (1" or less),
travel may be intermittently difficult due to the falling snow +
wind. Road conditions are more uncertain due to temps near freezing
and warm ground temps, but will need to be closely monitored
especially if the shower acitivty persists in earnest after
dark. Those with travel interests in northern Iowa tomorrow are
highly encouraged to check ahead on the latest weather and road
conditions. Temperatures tomorrow will feel chilly as this will
be the coldest airmass so far this fall season with highs only
in the 30s to near 40 and wind chills stuck in the 20s.
Upper low continues to push east on Thursday. Winds are on the gusty
side as the pressure gradient remains compressed. Latest NBM output
may still be underdone as model soundings show 30-40 knots at the
top of the mixed layer. However, by this point we are in somewhat of
a neutral temperature advection regime, which may hinder how
efficiently some of the higher momentum air is transported to the
surface as gusts. Quieter and dry conditions return end the
week as an upper ridge builds over the central conus. Surface
flow eventually becomes southerly and temperatures steadily
moderate. Much of the area should see highs back in the 50s by
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Variable VFR conditions were in place across central IA at 00z
ranging from clear skies west, to overcast mid clouds
southwest/south central, and ceilings just above 3,000 ft north.
A similar range of VFR conditions should persist into the night.
The main story Wednesday will be increasing winds with westerly gusts
at least 30-40kts by afternoon, and intermittent snow showers
north (including KMCW) which will bring at least MVFR conditions
at times. IFR conditions in visibilities may occur during the heavier
snow showers, and there is even some brief, LIFR potential in
narrow heavier snow bands but the confidence of that hitting
KMCW is insufficient to mention at this lead time.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Martin
AVIATION...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
856 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
We continue to watch a batch of rain ahead of a cold front moving
gradually eastward. The forecast remains on track with numerous
to widespread rain chances moving into the area overnight. Have
trended POPs generally the same, if not slightly lower, for the
update with the signs from satellite IR imagery of cloud tops
warming-- indicating a gradual weakening over the past 6-8 hours.
Still, good potential for rain overnight though some of the areas
of rain may become more fragmented and disorganized later tonight.
The thunderstorm potential remains low, with the best instability
being confined to the Gulf of Mexico. The HRRR model seems too
robust with the thunder potential based on latest radar imagery.
However, using NBM guidance kept in some limited locations for a
slight potential for a rumble of thunder overnight into Wed
morning. Can`t rule out a brief wind gust of 30-40 mph from some
showers based on a few reports this evening over southwest GA.
Otherwise, min temps remain on tack for the lows in the 60s
tonight. Adjusted POPs slightly for Wed delaying the precip
chances a bit for midday time frame, as some sprinkles possible
ahead of the cold front.
For the marine forecast, little change for now. South winds will
increase to 15-20 kt tonight with a brief window of ~20-22 kt for
1-2 offshore marine zones. Stronger winds expected starting Wed
night in the wake of the cold front, with small craft advisory
expected, and potential for a brief gale warning northern
offshore waters.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 104 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Increasing moisture in south to southwest flow ahead of approaching
frontal system still on track to push shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity into inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley
this evening and across the rest of NE FL and coastal SE GA after
midnight tonight. Storm total rainfall amounts through Wednesday
still on track for 0.50-1.00 inch values over inland areas with
locally higher totals of 2-3 inches possible for the Suwannee
Valley of I-75, with lesser values of 0.25-0.50 inches for the
Atlantic Coastal Counties. Still tracking above normal lows only
falling into the 60s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Rain chances continue for most of the area Wednesday as the front
makes it`s way through southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. By
Wednesday evening, the region is expected to be dry as the front
moves through central Florida. Behind the front, cooler air will
filter in with the help of northwesterly winds, dropping low
temperatures by about 15-20 degrees from the night previous.
Inland southeast Georgia and northeast Florida (west of the St.
Johns river basin) will see low temperatures in the 40s, with the
immediate coast and St. Johns river area staying in the low 50s.
Winds will pick up on Thursday and shift westerly, allowing high
temperatures to remain in the 60s area-wide despite sunny skies.
Low temperatures Thursday night will again drop into the 40s
inland, and even into the mid to upper 40s along the immediate
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 104 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Dry and sunny conditions will continue for northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia Friday through the weekend as high pressure
dominates. Cooler temperatures are expected to remain well below
normal through Sunday, with highs staying in the upper 50s to
lower 70s, with a slight gradual increase in temperatures each
day. By Monday, temperatures will return to normal with highs in
the 70s area-wide. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 30s in
inland southeast Georgia and portions of inland northeast Florida
on Friday and Saturday nights, with the coast seeing lows in the
40s. By Sunday night, low temperatures are forecast to remain 40
degrees and above area-wide.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Current forecast on track with VFR clouds at this time at about 5 kft
but will be lowering as a cold front and associated rain/showers move
into the TAF sites between 03z and 08z, with high chances of IFR and
MVFR conditions through the morning hours. There remains a low chance
of thunderstorms for mainly the FL TAFs and based on current data
choosing to leave out (i.e., VCTS) for now. But, data suggests the
highest chance of a brief rumble of thunder is during the window
of 14z-19z, with earliest start time at GNV. Most precip ends by
18z, with a few sprinkles possible thereafter to 00z. Higher chance
of MVFR to VFR cigs would be about 21z-00z as drier air begins to
filter in on west and northwest sfc winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 104 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
South to Southwest winds are expected to increase into the 15-20
knot range with SCEC headlines expected tonight ahead of the
approaching frontal system. The latest HREF probabilities and HRRR
model shows a brief period of close to 20 knot winds from the
south-southwest late tonight over the offshore waters, but after
coordination with other coastal offices will hold off on any SCA
flags with this package as the SW winds are expected to decrease
back into the 10-15 knot range through the day Wednesday as the
weak low pressure center pushes over the local waters. Otherwise
models still on track with high confidence for strong NW winds
around 25 knots with occasional gusts to 35 knots developing
Wednesday Night and continuing through Friday and expect solid SCA
headlines through this period of strong and much colder offshore
flow. High pressure still expected to build over the local waters
this weekend with subsiding winds and seas and the marine areas
are expected to remain headline free into early next week.
Rip Currents: A low to marginally moderate risk of rip currents
will continue through the end of the week with offshore dominating
the surf zone and surf/breakers falling into the 1-2 ft range.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Much drier air will be in place following the cold frontal
passage, with minRH values falling into the upper 20% to mid 30%
range on Thursday, and elevated fire danger headlines may be
required depending on the amount of rainfall through Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 104 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Last gasp of higher than normal tides are expected late this
afternoon and evening across the middle St. Johns River Basin in
the Putnam county area and will likely be able to drop the Coastal
Flood Advisory this evening after the latest high tide cycle
pushes through the area just north of Lake George.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 104 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Daily record highs for Tuesday November 19th at local climate sites...
JAX 84/1958
CRG 82/1984
GNV 90/1906
AMG 82/1942
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 76 43 61 / 80 20 0 0
SSI 66 76 49 64 / 80 30 0 0
JAX 66 78 48 66 / 90 40 0 0
SGJ 66 77 51 66 / 70 60 0 0
GNV 65 79 47 64 / 80 50 0 0
OCF 66 79 49 66 / 80 50 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
735 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder temperatures arrive Wednesday night, with snow expected
to be seen in the air in most places at times from Thursday
into Friday.
- Locations most likely to receive light snow accumulations will
be at elevations above 1500 feet, mainly Thursday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
An area of showers or light rain continues to move northeast
across the region and into WV, with some drizzle or light rain
lingering behind it. The steadier activity should diminish this
evening per the consensus of guidance and no adjustments were
needed to pops over the next few hours for this. Adjustments were
made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on recent
observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 332 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
Active weather pattern setting up across the country over the next
several days, as series of low pressure systems move through. The
overall large scale pattern will start off with a ridge of high
pressure situated just offshore of the southeastern part of the
country, with a large trough moving through the northern Atlantic
off the coast of southeast Canada. Meanwhile, another large trough
of low pressure will be in place over southern Canada, and will be
moving through the Great Lakes and into southern New England from
Wednesday onward. This system will bring repeated rounds of rain to
our area the next couple of days, as weak impulses rotate around it
aloft. High pressure will fill the void behind the aforementioned
low, and will bring a blast of much colder air into the region.
Further west, a powerful and explosively intensifying storm system
will be approaching the west coast, and will be moving onshore in
the Pacific Northwest Friday and Friday. That system will pack lots
of wind, rain, and mountains snows and is roars ashore.
The latest runs of the HRRR and NAMNEST models both have numerous
rain showers moving through eastern Kentucky through early this
evening, as a weak cold front, and an area of low pressure situated
on the south end of the front, move slowly through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys over the next several hours. Ongoing rain showers
should slowly taper off late this afternoon into early this evening,
before pausing briefly late tonight. By around dawn on Wednesday, a
secondary, and much stronger, cold front is forecast to move through
the region on Wednesday. This boundary will bring another round of
rain to the area on Wednesday. The highest rain chances tomorrow
should occur between roughly 16 and 22Z, as the cold front moves
quickly through the region. Temperatures will warm up quickly during
the first half of the day on Wednesday, ahead of the approaching
front, but will most likely begin to fall again late in the
afternoon/early evening time frame, as winds behind the front shift
to the west or west northwest, and begin bringing much cooler air
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Any rain ahead of the front
will steadily taper off late in the day on Wednesday, and should be
out of the area by around 0Z Thursday.
After seeing lows in the 50s on Wednesday morning, a large
temperature swing is on tap for Wednesday night, as a much colder
air mass filters behind a departing cold front. In fact, Wednesday
nights lows could fall into the mid 30s for most locations, or even
a bit colder than that depending on how quickly skies clear off late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. No weather hazards of note expected
in the short term.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 523 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
Large, intense, stacked low pressure will be centered over the
upper Great Lakes at the start of the period and will be our
dominant feature until the weekend. Surface low pressure
developing along the northeast coast will become dominant Thursday
night as the Great Lakes surface low weakens and drifts south to
the central Appalachians. As this happens, the upper low will
migrate to the New England/Mid Atlantic region. The whole process
will result in multiple lobes rotating around the mean position of
the upper low, supporting precip. Strong low level flow around the
system will initially bring us cold air advection on Thursday,
with the air mass being cold enough for whatever precip occurs to
be primarily snow. Warm air advection wrapping completely around
the very wound up system will arrive on Thursday night, and the
resulting deep moisture brings us our highest probability of
widespread precip, with atmosphere still looking cold enough for
primarily snow. A switch back to low level cold air advection may
occur for a time late Thursday night and early Friday, before a
switch back to warm air advection later on Friday. The warm air
advection and associated deeper moisture could bring another
uptick in precip late Friday (especially in our east), but with
enough warming for a change to rain for most places. With that
said, this is of course based on today`s model runs, and some
change/variation in these details is still possible. Even when
snow falls, temperatures will be too warm or only marginally cold
enough for any accumulation. As is typical in these marginal
situations, our higher elevations will stand the greatest shot at
accumulation. The highest total amounts currently forecast are
around 3 inches on Black Mountain and on some peaks in eastern
Pike County.
The aforementioned storm system finally makes a quick departure
to the northeast late Friday night and Saturday, and dry weather
will make a return for the local area under zonal flow aloft. Low
level warm air advection will return, especially as low pressure
takes shape well to our west. This should bring a developing warm
front north and northeast through our area on Monday and Monday
night with our next chance at showers. As the low pressure system
tracks northeast over the Great Lakes on Tuesday, its trailing
cold front approaches and continues our potential for showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
MVFR to IFR and even some VLIFR was reported across the area at
issuance time as an area of rain and drizzle work northeast
generally to the south of I-64 and KSYM. The rain and drizzle
should become more spotty by the 03Z to 06Z timeframe, but low
clouds should linger ahead of a slow moving weak cold front. This
front is expected to work slowly east and southeast toward the TAF
sites over the next 12 hours, but remain west of KSJS during that
time. Substantial clearing overnight is unlikely, but with low
dewpoint depressions some stratus build down may occur in some
areas with IFR and some MVFR ceilings during the first half of the
period. Some patchy drizzle or light rain is also possible. Consshort
and LAMP guidance suggests this is most likely to occur at KJKL
and KSYM by the 03Z to 06Z period where vis may fall to or below
airport mins though confidence is not all that high. From 12Z on,
the low clouds and stratus build down fog should lift and
dissipate through about 16Z and give way to MVFR near a second
stronger cold front and eventually VFR behind it. Scattered
showers may accompany this front.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
918 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers this afternoon diminish through late tonight
from southwest to northeast.
- A slow moving system will usher in a wet pattern into the
weekend. Precip will mainly be rain, but some snow will be
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the west
half.
- Northerly gales to 35 knots will be possible Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Increasingly quiet weather is expected tonight. The forecast has
been adjusted to account for lingering spotty sprinkles and light
rain showers - mainly across the northern and eastern UP. Otherwise,
we remain under a blanket of low clouds with winds quickly falling
off. This should help to contain overnight lows in the 30s to lower
40s the rest of tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
At the mid levels, a negatively tilted trough is situated over the
Northern Plains with a ridge over the southeastern states. The sfc
low pressure system responsible for the sct rain showers currently
decorating the Upper Great Lakes radar mosaic is centered over
northern MN this afternoon at 985 mb per the latest RAP analysis; an
associated occluded front is approaching the MI/WI state line. This
sfc low is progged to lift north toward, slightly retrograding to
southeastern Manitoba at 994 mb as the mid level trough develops
into a closed low over the Upper Midwest. This helps the occluded
front push northeast over the area through this evening.
Gusty southeast winds (observed up to 30-50 mph earlier in the day)
ahead of the frontal boundary caused plenty of power outages in the
Keweenaw as well scattered areas of power outage impacts across the
UP. These winds have already started weakening, especially close to
the front. As the front pushes north over the area through this
evening, the lull in winds will move north with it, shifting winds
out of the southwest for tonight. 11/19 12Z HREF indicates a 30-60%
chance for some gusts up to 30 mph again this evening as a 35-40 kt
low level jet increases over western Lake Superior and the western
shores. Model soundings also support this mixing down early on this
evening before winds weaken to 5 to 15 mph by Wednesday morning
calmer winds in the east. With winds and resulting waves
diminishing, opted to allow wind and lakeshore flood advisories to
fall off as scheduled.
Showers will continue lifting northeast through this evening with a
dry slow behind the front resulting in dry weather returning late
this afternoon through late tonight from southwest to northeast.
Additional accumulations should remain below 0.25 inches. Otherwise,
lows are expected in the low 30s to low 40s, warmer in the east
where showers hold on the longest.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
There continues to be very good agreement among the deterministic
models and their respective ensemble packages this morning,
suggesting the main item of interest will be the evolution of a
closed mid-level low and multiple surface lows through the Great
Lakes into the weekend. Current water vapor imagery from GOES 16,
MSAS analysis, and RAP height analysis show the initial closed
circulation over Minnesota, with an occluded front extending
southeast from the surface feature across northern Wisconsin.
Tonight, the mid-level low will progress southeast while the dry
slot of this system moves overhead behind the northward lifting
front and the surface front fizzles. As the mid-level feature
migrates east, it will again amplify, resulting in a second surface
low developing near Michigan`s Thumb by Wednesday afternoon. The low
will lift north to the northern shores of Lake Huron in the evening,
before retrograding westward, and then back south down Lake Michigan
or western Lower Michigan. This surface reflection will weaken late
Thursday while a third surface low develops off the Mid-Atlantic
coast in response to the mid-level low again, amplifying as it
shifts eastward. The system will occlude Friday then slowly exit
through New England on Saturday, perhaps deepening again Saturday
evening as it lifts into the Canadian Maritimes. This will support a
prolonged wet period across the forecast area with synoptic precip
shifting over to lake enhanced and eventually lake effect through at
least Saturday. The main forecasting challenges in this period
continue to revolve around the exact westward edge the second
surface low`s position while it wobbles around the Great Lakes and
the subsequent position of the low`s deformation axis/inverted
trough while cooling occurs Wednesday night.
Following the erosion of the dry slot Wednesday morning, increasing
mid-level convergence will support and precip spreading into eastern
Upper Michigan while the second surface low develops. The consensus
among the GEPS, GEFS, and EPS surface low clustering is that the low
will drift north then retrograde west, before migrating south.
Current timing of this evolution will be overnight Wednesday into
Thursday when surface temperatures dip near or below freezing and
wetbulb zero heights fall less than 600feet, which will support a
rain to wet snow transition over western Upper Michigan. There`s
enough spread among these systems on the northward and westward
position to question how far west higher qpf axis will be, which
impacts snowfall amounts. Middle of the road option conforms to most
deterministic solutions, while the most notable outlier is the
eastward NamNest. This forecast represents the consensus option
where confidence is highest. Ensembles suggest a 50% chance or
higher of a majority of the forecast area getting another 0.5" of
QPF and the EPS suggests a 20-60% chance of exceeding 1.0" in the
higher terrain regions of Baraga and Marquette counties. With
anticipated snow ratios approximately 10:1 or less, this would yield
a couple inches of wet snow. Snow amounts among the various ensemble
and deterministic are mixed and largely depend on the rate of
cooling, the position of the low, and the QPF spread. Current
forecast reflects ~1 inch across most of western Upper Michigan away
from the lakeshores and a swath of 2 to 4 inches from the Huron
Mountains southwestward toward Sidnaw/Watton. Timing currently looks
like in the overnight period after midnight for the bulk of the
potential.
Eventually, the mid-level low exits east, leaving behind continued
cyclonic flow with 850mb temps of -4 to -1C. This should keep lake
effect rain/snow showers downwind of Lake Superior into Saturday
when its possible a cooler airmass may build in. Mid-level ridging
will eventually filter in from west to east late Saturday/Sunday,
with a more uncertain pattern developing afterwards. A brief, pseudo-
zonal flow pattern looks to develop across CONUS afterwards but this
looks short lived as an eastward migrating shortwave interrupts this
for our forecast area Sunday night into early next week. There
continues to be plenty of uncertainty with this wave, but guidance
continues to suggest the airmass behind it of 850mb temps in the -10
to -5C for the start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
A blanket of low stratus remains over the UP this evening, with IFR
to LIFR ceilings lingering at CMX and SAW. Meanwhile, ceilings have
already lifted to MVFR at IWD. A slow improvement to MVFR is
expected over the next several hours at CMX and SAW, then IWD and
CMX should lift to VFR before daybreak Wednesday. MVFR ceilings
linger through the daytime hours at SAW, with rain spreading in from
the east later in the day and bringing in a drop in visibility as
well. Otherwise, winds turning over to the SW continue to gust to
around 20-25kts this evening, but should turn calmer the second half
of the night.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Strong gales with some storm force gusts will settle down this
afternoon and evening from south to north with the passage of an
occluded front. Expect the southeast winds to shift to southwest
immediately after the front and continue to blow gales of 35kts over
the west half into the evening hours. Winds will settle further
overnight, falling to near 20kts by morning lake-wide. Attention
then turns to a developing surface low over Lake Huron that will
lift north Wednesday night then shift west and south over lower
Michigan into Thursday. There continues to be differences in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance packages of where exactly the low
will wobble and how deep it will be, and thus the impact of the
increasing pressure gradient forces. However, confidence continues
to grow that a widespread gale event to at least 35knots will be
possible Thursday. Internal probabilistic guidance suggests 30-50%
chance of at least 34kts which is reinforced by EPS probabilities
suggesting >50% across Lake Superior. Its possible that a gale watch
may be issued later this evening or by Wednesday morning.
Winds should lighten late Thursday but remain generally north at 20-
30kts into the weekend. Current thinking is for winds to fall below
20kts from west to east Saturday into the evening hours. Light winds
look to remain into early next week, but a system moving through the
region late Sunday/Monday with trailing cold air may result in
increasing winds again Monday/Tuesday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening for
LSZ162-263.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...JTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
835 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered offshore will extend over the Southeast coast
through tonight, as an upper level disturbance passes through the
region. A surface cold front will cross the area Wednesday evening,
ushering in colder air for late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 835 PM Tuesday...
Most of the shower activity tonight is still lingering to the south.
As the moisture plume from the south surges into the region
overnight expect an increase in shower activity. Adjusted PoPs
overnight to show the increase in PoPs late tonight into the
morning. Over the next several hours showers from SC could drift
into NC but are expected to be light with little accumulation. The
heavier showers are expected to move in early morning and clear out
again shortly after sunrise. Some areas could see any where from a
few hundreds to a few tenths of accumulation, all totals generally
below quarter of an inch. Skies will be cloudy which will help
temperatures stay in the upper 50s overnight, which is about 20
degrees above average.
As of 234 PM Tuesday... The MIMIC-TPW satellite product shows the
anomalous moisture plume continues to remain to our west this
afternoon. Here locally, we have seen some moistening of the column,
but sub-1 inch PWAT remains over much of our area. As such, while
we`ve had some weak radar echo returns traverse the NC/SC border,
we`ve yet to see any reports of measurable rain at the sfc. CAMs
continue to suggest the swath of rain currently across GA/SC will
mostly dissipate with time this evening. However, can`t rule out a
few trace observations across our southern areas through tonight
with this diminishing band.
As we pivot to the overnight period, the saturation depth should
deepen with time, as a few weak embedded mid-level perturbations
slide across the southeast. The latest HRRR runs have generated a
bit more precip through 12Z Wednesday, and are more in line with the
12Z guidance from the Nam Nest/Fv3/ARW runs. Regardless, expect
scattered showers through the overnight period with anywhere from a
few hundreds to a few tenths of accumulation. Overnight lows in the
upper 50s are expected under cloudy skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...
Low pressure will be over Lake Erie Wednesday morning, with a warm
front extending southeast across Pennsylvania and the Delmarva
Peninsula while a cold front will extend south along the Appalachian
Mountains. The bulk of rainfall should have moved to the east
overnight, with declining chances of rain through the morning from
west to east. However, the chance of rain should increase again in
the afternoon, both along the I-95 corridor where there will be more
instability as well as farther to the west along the cold front
itself. Did not see enough instability to add thunder to the
forecast, but think that these two separate areas warrant higher
pops through the afternoon. With the cold front approaching the
Triangle Wednesday evening, pops should come to an end during the
evening hours, allowing for dry conditions after midnight. Cannot
rule out some patchy frost early Thursday morning, although this
should be short-lived.
The wind will pick up behind the cold front Wednesday evening,
slacken briefly late Wednesday night, then pick up again on Thursday
due to a stronger pressure gradient between two separate lows (the
Wednesday low departing off the New England coast plus a second low
over the northern Great Lakes) and high pressure building across
Texas. Sustained winds should be 10-15 mph with gusts between 20-30
mph. There are still possible fire concerns on Thursday with the
gusty wind as well as relatively humidity values between 30-40% in
most locations. This could prompt an increased fire danger
statement. There will be more potential for frost late Thursday
night, although the risk of frost formation may be tempered by winds
remaining slightly higher (5-10 mph).
The string of above normal temperatures will come to an end after
Wednesday, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Lows
Wednesday night will be 15-20 degrees colder than tonight with the
passage of the cold front, ranging from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Thursday`s highs will only be in the 50s, returning to below normal
values. Thursday night`s lows will be in the 30s, and cannot rule
out a few counties potentially needing a Freeze Warning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 PM Tuesday...
* Brisk Fri morning with wind chills in the low 30s to upper 20s
from 2 am through 8 am.
* Patchy frost possible Sat and Sun morning with moderating
temperatures through early next week.
An unseasonably deep and strong mid/upper level low and associated
occluded surface low pressure will be situated over the Mid-Atlantic
Fri morning. The newly deposited cP airmass from the Canadian
airmass and tight pressure gradient from the deep 990mb low to our
north will prompt a brisk westerly winds throughout the day with
highs only reaching the low/mid 50s and 10-15 mph winds with
frequent gusts 20-30 mph.
The surface low will begin to lift northeast on Sat as surface high
pressure begins to weaken as it settles over the northern GOM states
and FL into Sun. The continued tight pressure gradient over the area
should result in another day of brisk winds with gusts 20 to 30 mph.
Point soundings and momentum transfer from the top of the mixed
layer show some infrequent gusts of 35 mph will be possible. The
pressure gradient will gradually relax through the night into Sun
morning. Minus any orographic cirrus development, calm and clear
conditions will prompt radiational cooling and the coolest period in
the extended.
Temperatures will continue to moderate into early next week as the
surface high slips off the Southeast coast and towards Bermuda. Low
amplitude disturbances rippling through the nearly zonal flow would
result in periods of cloudiness and perhaps some light rain chances
early next week, although predictability is low at this time range.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM Tuesday...
Confidence is high that poor aviation conditions, brief MVFR cigs
dropping quickly to IFR/LIFR, will dominate through the next 24 hrs
across central NC, as an upper level disturbance passes over the
region, followed closely by an approaching surface cold front. We`re
already seeing sct-bkn MVFR cigs in the W Piedmont (INT/GSO), and
these low clouds will spread from W to E with lowering bases
overnight through Wed morning. INT/GSO are expected to drop to
IFR/LIFR by 07z, RDU/FAY by 12z, and RWI by 16z. Patchy light rain
will pass through the region and mainly affect INT/GSO/FAY late
tonight through early Wed, then scattered showers are possible
areawide Wed afternoon, but overall vsbys should be MVFR to VFR as
any rain is not expected to be heavy. Surface winds will be light
from the S or SW, mostly under 10 kts, but very late in the period
(after 22z), as the front gets close to the INT/GSO, winds there
will increase and shift around to westerly with some gusts to 15-25
kts possible.
Looking beyond 00z Thu, as the cold front shifts E through central
NC through Wed evening, cigs will lift to MVFR then VFR over just a
couple hours` time, with winds abruptly shifting to be from the W or
WNW while increasing to sustained 10-20 kts gusting to 20-25 kts for
a few hours in the evening through early overnight hours Wed night.
Winds will quiet down to under 12 kts after 07z W and 10z E early
Thu, then increase again after 14z Thu with gusts to 20-30 kts
possible during the day at all sites. Gusty winds are again likely
Fri. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Luchetti
NEAR TERM...Luchetti/CA
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Hartfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 10-20% chance for a few sprinkles this evening into the
overnight hours as a secondary upper-level system moves
through the area.
- Gusty winds and dry conditions Wednesday may lead to Elevated
(2 of 4) to locally Significant (3 of 4) Fire Weather
conditions.
- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will occur across
the area through the end of the week.
- Temperatures increase to near normal/slightly above normal
over the weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1236 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Current RAP analysis depicts a deep and dynamic positively-
tilted upper-level trough dominating much of the CONUS. Water
vapor imagery paired with the RAP analysis shows two mid-level
shortwaves within the background flow. One over MN/WI, currently
forcing the 985 mb occluded surface low, and another currently
ejecting off the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies. At the surface, a
secondary cold front associated with the low pressure system in
MN is stretched across MO from the NE corner to the SW corner.
The primary cold front moved through last night, but the cold
air is lagging behind the secondary front, allowing our high
temperatures to remain mild today in the middle to upper 60s.
The secondary cold front is expected to move through tonight,
bringing low temperatures into the middle to upper 30s.
10-20% chance for a few sprinkles this evening into tonight:
The second mid-level shortwave over the Rockies will move into
the region tonight behind the secondary surface cold front. A
100-110 kt mid-level jet streak associated with this wave will
overspread the region. Left exit region dynamics within this
strong jet streak will provide rising motion, generally along
and north of I-44. Despite the strong rising motion, very
limited moisture will be present as two surface cold fronts will
have already moved through. With that being said, there may be
enough lingering moisture for a few very light showers or
sprinkles as the wave moves through tonight (10-20% chance). The
best timeframe will be between 8 PM and 3 AM along and north of
I-44 where the best synoptic lift will be.
Gusty winds and dry air may lead to fire-promoting conditions:
After the wave and secondary cold front move through, the mid-
and upper-level trough will dip its toes into our forecast
area, allowing the cooler, drier, and gustier air to filter in
Wednesday. Highs will be in the lower to middle 50s with lows
Wednesday night in the lower to middle 30s.
The drier and gustier air will also bring the potential for
elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions
Wednesday. A tightened backside pressure gradient associated
with the occluded surface low and edge of the upper-level trough
will strengthen winds to 15-25 mph. SREF/RAP momentum transfers
suggest wind gusts could reach 35-40 mph during the afternoon
hours. HREF/NBM probs add confidence with a 25-45% chance of
gusts greater than 35 mph. The strong winds will also promote
greater vertical mixing, drying out the surface to minimum
relative humidity values of 30-40%. Some localized pockets may
get down to 25%. HREF probs give a 30-50% chance for localized
areas to experience <30% RH. These in combination will promote
elevated to significant fire danger. These are just outside of
Red Flag Warning criteria, and while some localized areas may
break that threshold for brief periods, recent rainfall has
improved ground conditions a great deal with RAWs fuel sticks at
15-25% (<9% is generally the RFW threshold). This should limit
fire danger a bit more. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is not
anticipated at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Thursday morning, a cool, dry (cP) air mass will have a secondary
surge south towards our area behind the low that has moseyed across
the Great Lakes region by this point. A hauling low-level jet
(50+kts) that develops overhead Thursday will keep us in a northwest
flow pattern through Saturday. The jet will act like cold air room
service, decreasing our temperatures until we bottom out on Saturday
morning. Highs Thursday will be in the low to mid 40s for most of
us, maybe reaching 50F near the MO/AR border. Temperatures will copy
paste from Thursday to Friday but a couple of degrees cooler Friday,
with lows decreasing from the 30s into the 20s through the end of
the week. By Saturday, we will see lows in the mid- to upper 20s,
with lower-lying terrain potentially even a few degrees cooler.
Areas farthest south have more uncertainty around just how cool it
will get, but the signal is very strong for below-normal
temperatures, with widespread 70-95% chances of <32F on Friday and
Saturday morning.
The weekend will bring us back into a ridging pattern with
southwesterly flow warming us back up beginning Saturday. Despite
slight differences in exactly how many degrees we`ll warm, the
warmup signal is evident, but model spread for temperatures
increases significantly for the Saturday-Monday period. This
indicates near complete certainty for warmer temperatures through
the weekend into early next week, but next to nothing else in
regards to more location- or timing-specific details. Ensemble means
do not reflect their individual members well at all, so as the
individual members start to resolve more similarly, more details
will become available. That said, the ridge pushing east after the
weekend would mark our best chances for next precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the entire TAF
period. West-northwesterly winds will become breezy after 12Z,
with gusts between 20-30 kts tomorrow afternoon and evening.
There is a <15% chance of light rain/sprinkles for primarily
KJLN and KSGF between 04-07Z, however confidence is low in this
affecting cigs.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Melto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
906 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Gusty winds are expected along the back edge of the rain shield
moving through the region. Several gusts of 40+ mph have been
reported the past couple of hours and we expect this trend to
continue until the line of showers pushes east of our area
tonight.
The largest change to the forecast with this update was lowering
POPs a little faster than originally forecast. Have also elected
to keep hourly temperatures and dew points on the warmer side of
things through the night as observations across southern Alabama
remain quite warm with widespread 70 degree dew points and
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
High rain chances continue through at least the first half of
tonight as a large area of convection attendant to a frontal system
moving across the MS Valley continues its eastward progression.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with the highest rates likely
to ride along/south of I-10 where the better forcing should reside.
A slight chance of thunder is also in place for those locations.
Cannot rule out isolated strong to severe gusts this afternoon and
early evening along the Emerald Coast where bowing segmented cells
are currently heading towards that way. Additionally, with large
rain shields like this, we will need to keep an eye on gusty wind
potential, as hi-res models such as the HRRR show strong gusts
tonight.
Outside of precipitation, be on the lookout for potential fog
development late this evening through tomorrow morning. There are
decent model signals mostly north of the FL state line. The main
limiting factor are the winds, for which if they go calm can support
formation prior to FroPa. Widespread lows in the mid 60s are
forecast. Coastal communities need to also be vigilant for minor
coastal flooding, for which the greatest potential exists for
Apalachee Bay (more details in the Hydrology section). For tomorrow,
rain chances & sky cover decrease rapidly from west to east in the
front`s wake with breezy winds sharply shifting out of the NW. This
breeziness maintains hazardous beach & marine conditions. High
temperatures range from mid 70s to around 80 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 357 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Quite a fair stretch of weather coming after a cold frontal passage
on Wednesday with the main weather story much cooler temperatures.
Highs in the 70s on Wednesday dip with the passage of the front into
the 60s from Thursday through the upcoming weekend, which is several
degrees below normal for a change, before rebounding into the 70s
again by early next week. Dry weather expected through the weekend,
then a slight chance of showers with moist return in the wake of
departing high pressure on Monday, but forecast is kept dry for now
given the low probability.
The combo of cooler temperatures and elevated winds is increasingly
favored to make for chilly Apparent Temperatures/Wind Chills Friday
morning, with low to mid-30s possible away from the coast, which
would lead to cold weather sheltering concerns for vulnerable
populations. While the wind dies down this weekend, that`s when low
temperatures could dip well into the 30s if more favorable long-
wave/radiational cooling takes place, which will be dependent on the
placement of the high pressure ridge. We`ve included frost in the
forecast on both Saturday and Sunday mornings, but a freeze cannot
be ruled out, as the probability of low temperatures at or below 32F
is around 50% in the normally colder locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
As cold front looks to move across the region tomorrow, the
ongoing line of stratiform rain will continue to move eastward
with precip ending from west to east over the next 12-18 hours. In
the meantime, during the overnight hours, we`ll see MVFR to IFR
conditions across all terminals with the possibility for LIFR
ceilings. After sunrise VLD is expected to be the last terminal to
see VCSH before tapering off in the late morning hours. Cigs are
expected to gradually lift throughout the afternoon with VFR
conditions possible at most terminals before the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 859 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue through Friday
with a return to more tranquil boating this weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to push east through the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico ahead of a cold frontal passage with the potential for
brief wind gusts in excess of 40 knots and waterspouts. Winds will
clock around from south to northwest late tonight into Wednesday
morning with the frontal passage, including a brief lull in winds.
Fresh breezes continue through Friday with another brief lull
during the day on Thursday, while seas remain elevated through the
period, with significant wave heights peaking at 5 to 8 feet just
offshore.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Widespread wetting rains (heavy at times) are expected this
afternoon and tonight as a frontal system moves through the region.
Rain chances decrease from west to east in the front`s wake as a dry
airmass begins filtering in via northwest winds tomorrow. Relative
humidity values bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s on Thursday
with an increase to widespread 30s on Friday. Fire concerns appear
minimal outside of patchy fog Wednesday morning and pockets of high
afternoon dispersions to conclude the work week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
A very moist airmass ahead of a cold front has led to the
development of a large line of showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Already, portions of the region have received Betteann 2-3 inches of
rain, mainly in SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with a little
more on the way. Radar trends show some erosion of the rain from the
west as dry air behind the front approaches, but nonetheless, it
does look like some areas may approach 4 inches of rain across our
western areas before the cold front clears through the region
overnight.
Locally heavy rainfall could lead to pockets of flash flooding,
though this would have to be rate driven and based on radar trends
would seem to be most likely in the vicinity of Panama City where
the urban environment would also contribute to the flood potential.
Rainfall amounts further inland do not appear sufficient to result
in any riverine flooding in the days ahead. And then, after this
evening, the forecast is for dry conditions, so no additional
rainfall will be in the mix for the next few days.
Coastal flooding will be a concern again on the high tide sequence
this evening and very early on Wednesday. Moderate southerly flow
ahead of the front will align close to or directly with high tide in
Apalachee Bay. While some guidance is suggesting peak water levels
just above the 3 ft MHHW mark, most guidance is in the 2.5-2.8 ft
MHHW levels, suggesting high end advisory impacts in Apalachee Bay.
As such, enhanced the wording for Wakulla and Jefferson Counties
where water levels should be the highest given the timing of the
high tide and the trajectory of the wind. As winds shift to NW
behind the front, the coastal flood threat will end just after
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 66 78 46 62 / 90 10 0 0
Panama City 66 77 47 65 / 80 10 0 0
Dothan 62 75 42 61 / 40 10 0 0
Albany 63 76 43 61 / 80 10 0 0
Valdosta 65 78 45 61 / 90 20 0 0
Cross City 71 80 47 65 / 80 30 0 0
Apalachicola 68 78 48 64 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
114-115.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ108-112.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ Thursday for
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...LF/Reese
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Godsey