Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/15/24


Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
952 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure from the Maritimes will impact the region Friday into the weekend. Another low will approach Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 930pm Update (MS): Clear skies remain in place across the entire area tonight, with cloud cover very slowly building westward over far southeastern New Brunswick. Winds are gradually increasing out of the north across eastern locations. Showers have reached Moncton, New Brunswick. However, the leading edge of cloud cover remains well east of Fredericton and Miramichi. The 18z HRDPS and 0z HRRR are handling the location of the leading edge well, and are on the drier end of the spectrum for QPF heading into Maine after 12z, particularly for western zones. Given these trends and increasing confidence that any precipitation will begin too late when insolation is occurring, the Winter Weather Advisory has been discontinued for the western most tier of zones, including Bangor. Some patchy freezing rain could still occur north of the higher terrain east of Greenville and over far northern Hancock County due to upslope flow and enhanced localized cold air damming, but the threat is very limited compared to areas to the east. Uncertainty remains on the QPF elsewhere in the advisory area, and a further delay or lighter precipitation would mean additional zones would need to be removed from the advisory. Observational trends will continue to be monitored overnight. Previous Discussion: The Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 to 11 AM Friday. High pressure will retreat westward tonight through Friday, while low pressure retrogades toward the Maritimes from the open Atlantic. High pressure will keep mostly clear skies across the region early tonight. Clouds will then expand westward across New Brunswick into eastern portions of the forecast area late tonight. Precipitation will also expand back toward the Maine/New Brunswick border very late tonight. Warmer air aloft from the Maritimes will expand across the region overnight. At the surface, favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow low levels to cool rapidly before clouds begin to increase late tonight. Based on the thermal profile, expect precipitation in the form of a light wintry mix across eastern portions of the forecast area late tonight. However, models are still trending slower with the arrival time of precipitation which will be fighting the very dry air with retreating high pressure. Thus, have delayed the onset time of the Winter Weather Advisory. Any ice accumulations will be light, ranging from a trace possibly up to a tenth of an inch. This has also led to increased uncertainty regarding how quickly, along with the extent to which, precipitation expands westward across the remainder of the forecast area. Precipitation will transition to rain through Friday morning into the afternoon with warmer air wrapping back across the forecast area from the Maritimes. Low temperatures tonight will occur during the early morning hours then begin to slowly warm late. Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 20s across western areas, with mid 20s across eastern areas. High temperatures Friday will range from the mid to upper 30s across much of the forecast area, with around 40 to the lower 40s along the Downeast coast and southwest corner of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Precipitation is expected to gradually retreat to the east Friday night and Saturday. As the low moves eastward, some colder air will filter back in aloft and the precip will become more showery in nature. By this time, temperatures will have warmed above freezing across the forecast area, so freezing rain will no longer be a concern. Northwest flow will bring some colder air on the backside, but by the time the colder temperatures have filtered into the mountains, precipitation will have all but ceased. Therefore, decided to keep surface temperatures above freezing and limit any freezing rain across the North Woods Saturday morning. As for amounts, little to no QPF is expected at this point so not expecting these showers to have much of an impact. Northwesterly winds on the backside of this low will be gusty; not advisory level but have increased the forecast from NBM base winds since studies indicate the current blend is consistently low on wind speeds with windier conditions. By Sunday, upper level ridging will move overhead and dry weather is expected on Sunday. Winds will decrease as well and overall Sunday is expected to be a pleasant day. Highs will be in the mid-40s and lows in the upper 20s across the region, so slightly warmer than normal although not unusual. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for precipitation comes on Monday with a weak front expected to cross the area. Warm air advection during the day on Monday will ensure that any precip starts out as rain, but cooler air on the backside of the front Monday night may bring a brief mix of snow Monday night/Tuesday morning. Regardless, this looks like a low QPF event so impacts will be limited again. Weather remains quiet and dry for the remainder of the week, with seasonable temperatures. This patch of quiet weather will not do much to alleviate any drought concerns for the state, however, cooler temperatures will minimize evaporation so conditions are likely to remain status quo. Thursday night, the potential begins for a larger, more potent system approaching from the west. However, as is typical with stronger systems at the end of the period, there is a large variation in timing and development of this system. So, confidence is increasing in a weather system for the end of next week, but confidence in the details of that system is low at this time. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR tonight. VFR/MVFR early Friday, then MVFR/IFR. A light wintry mix early Friday, transitioning to rain. North winds 5 to 10 knots early tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots late. North/northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots Friday. Northerly low level wind shear develops during the early morning hours then persists into Friday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Friday night and Saturday...IFR cigs north of GNR and HUL with tempo IFR vis in drizzle. Mostly MVFR towards BGR and BHB due to cigs. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Saturday night...IFR cigs with tempo IFR vis in drizzle north of HUL and GNR, improving through the night. VFR for BHB and BGR. Northwest winds near 10 kt. Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Monday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR with a chance of MVFR cigs north of HUL and GNR. Light west winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters tonight through Friday. A slight chance of rain late tonight, then a chance of rain Friday. SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions are expected to continue through Saturday morning. A few gale force gusts may occur Friday night. Winds will continue to be gusty through Sunday and the small craft advisory may need to be extended through the weekend. Right now, kept the forecast to minimum small craft gusts through Sunday. Small craft winds may return Monday night into Tuesday. Seas will be 3 to 5 feet through the period, with highest seas further offshore. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Friday for MEZ001-002-004>006-011-017-030-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Brennan/MStrauser/Norcross Short Term...LF Long Term...LF Aviation...Brennan/MStrauser/Norcross/LF Marine...Brennan/Norcross/LF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
527 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry into Friday, with patchy fog (some dense) mainly south and west late tonight into early Friday -Quiet with mainly dry weather into the weekend, outside of minimal chances (around 10%) of rain southeast late Saturday into Sunday -Multiple chances for precipitation through next week, much cooler towards the latter half && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Dreary conditions remain across the greater majority of Iowa, as thick cloud cover continues to blanket all but the southwest portion of Iowa early this afternoon as the low pressure system previously overhead from yesterday departs east. Temperatures have been a bit slow to increase through the day so far with the overall lack of sunshine, which will likely lead to slightly cooler temperatures than what were expected, so values have been bumped down at least a degree or two over portions of the areas where clouds remain. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s are expected this afternoon. These clouds should gradually exit at least the southwestern two-thirds of Iowa into the evening, though some cloud cover looks to return into Friday morning. Lingering low level moisture and light winds over at least portions of western into southern Iowa into Friday morning per model guidance such as the HREF, NAM, HRRR has placed patchy areas of fog, some areas even dense. However, other models dry out the lower levels and lessen the overall potential, but given how conditions are playing out so far, would lean more towards the higher likelihood that this fog will gradually develop. Further confidence is needed however for potential headline consideration, so will be continuing to monitor trends over the next several hours and adjust the forecast as needed. Overnight lows are expected to be on the chilly side, with values in the mid to upper 30s. Upper level ridging moving into the central US into Friday and at least the start of the weekend will lead to dry and quiet weather across Iowa. Increasing low southwest flow, especially into Saturday, will lead to warmer air pushing into the state, with highs expected to reach into the upper 50s to low 60s, several degrees above average for high temperatures given the time of year. Winds will be breezy as a result with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially north. A shortwave breaking away from a larger trough tracking across the southwestern CONUS and lifting northeast into the Dakotas looks to develop a frontal boundary setting up over at least southeastern Iowa late Saturday into early Sunday. Though moisture per model soundings is present in the low levels with moderate warm air advection, weaker forcing for lift through much of the column looks to keep conditions dry, so have currently left out any rain mention in the forecast at this time and will continue to monitor for potential changes. All eyes remain focused on next week as major changes are expected to occur. The week starts out with the larger trough mentioned above over the southwestern CONUS deepening more significantly, then ejecting north/northeastward into the Central Plains and gradually into Iowa by Tuesday. Long range guidance per latest runs seem to be in better agreement on widespread rain chances increasing from south to north through Monday morning, with the state within the warm sector of the strengthening low pressure as it continues to lift north through Tuesday. Periods of heavier rainfall remain in play given the strong surge of warm and moist air from the south paired with widespread ascent within an area of moderate frontogenesis, as signaled with this system per GFS guidance, with ensemble mean rainfall totals generally depicting at least 1-2 inches over much of the state. Cannot rule out some potential for thunderstorm activity given increasing dewpoints reaching into the low 50s and warmer temperatures for the time of year as well in the 50s paired with the stronger forcing, but the overall potential remains lower end at this time and will continue to watch closely. As the low stalls over the Upper Midwest and circulates overhead per GFS guidance with increasing NW flow, could see the remaining potential for some introduction of winter precipitation. The Euro has a different take on the evolution of this system as another area of low pressure developing within the larger trough lifts into the Central Plains and becomes ingested into the earlier week system, creating a much more defined low pressure with the deformation zone right over Iowa, which given enough moisture and stronger forcing for ascent suggests much more impactful precipitation over the area, especially as temperatures are generally expected to be much cooler with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s into the latter work week. Still too far out to get into more specific details on expected weather and impacts, but definitely quite dynamic with different possibilities producing significant differences in outcomes. Will be watching trends over the next several days as more becomes better known as more model members pick up these systems through next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Stratus continues to slowly pull east this evening with overcast MVFR ceilings giving way to VFR unrestricted ceilings. However, recent rainfall and good radiational cooling may allow for the development of fog overnight impacting all TAF sites with MVFR visibilities for a few hours on either side of sunrise. The fog is expected to burn off gradually on Friday morning as mixing slowly increases. Surface winds are light and variable overnight becoming southeast with a modest increase in speed by midday Friday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bury AVIATION...Cogil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
544 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog are possible across the southwest portion of the outlook area late tonight into Friday morning and could become locally dense. - Quiet and warmer weather through Saturday. - Active weather Sunday through the end of next week with a major change in the weather patten. Please the climate section below. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 The main forecast problem in the short term is whether clouds will move out of the area or lingering through Friday. A closed 500 MB trough over the area is forecast to move into the Mid Atlantic states as 500 ridging builds into the area at the surface and aloft. Bufkit soundings show a strong subsidence inversion across the area through the period which would keep clouds in place across the area. In addition, HREF and SREF probabilities show a high probability of the clouds lingering through the period. In collaboration with neighboring offices have decided to raise low temperatures by a couple of degrees resulting in low temperatures in the mid 30s west of a Cedar Rapids to Kahoka Missouri line with upper 30s to around 40 degrees along and east of the Mississippi River. Lowered high temperatures slightly on Friday but still widespread temperatures in the mid 50s. A second question is whether or not we will see dense fog development tonight. The HRRR and HREF show the possibility of fog developing across the area mainly southwest of a Fairfield to Keokuk to Quincy Illinois line. Think that any fog development will be tied to whether or not we see clearing and have left the mention of fog out of the forecast for now. If clouds do push to the east, any areas that see clearing will have to monitored for the potential of dense fog late tonight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 During the long term period the weather pattern will go through a large scale pattern change especially during the mid to later parts of next week. Friday night into Saturday shows a highly amplified ridge across the area as a deep trough moves across the Inter Mountain West. A shortwave moving from Idaho into Wyoming is forecast to break off from this trough and move eastward across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday into Sunday. At this time, this storm systems looks like it lacks moisture and chances have been limited to areas along and south of Interstate 80. Chances of rain showers range from 20 to 50 percent with the highest chances in far northeast Missouri and adjacent areas of Iowa and Illinois. There is a low chance for thunderstorms and they were left out of the forecast. In the wake of the Sunday into Sunday storm system, the flow aloft will become more southwesterly as a closed 500 MB low in the southwest begins to eject into the Plains for the start of next week. The most recent runs of the operational GFS and ECMWF as well as the GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble have come into better agreement of this upper level low lifting northeastward into the Upper Midwest and then merging with another shortwave moving eastward across the northern US resulting in a large closed low over the central US through next Wednesday. This will bring the chance for several rounds of showers and possible storms before a cold front moves across the area late Tuesday. At this time, rainfall amounts look light. In addition to chances for rain, a strong pressure gradient is forecast to be in place across the area and is expected to bring breezy to windy conditions across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, the NBM is showing a 20 to 30 percent chance of wind gusts over 30 MPH on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Latest satellite imagery showed a large area of low stratus over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The clouds/moisture is trapped beneath a low-level inversion and will take a while to mix out, so anticipate MVFR ceilings to persist into tonight. As high pressure continues to build in, the stratus deck should begin to gradually break up and we can anticipate a return to VFR late tonight into early Friday morning from west to east. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 As mentioned in the key messages, a major pattern change will occur the week of November 17th to a more active and much colder than normal regime. This colder than normal regime potentially may remain across the area until the end of November. The anomalous cut off low that develops in the Rockies will slowly move into the mid-CONUS early next week as a longwave trof begins to develop over the eastern CONUS. Energy topping the weak west coast ridge will drop into the developing longwave trof and deepen it. As the longwave trof deepens, the NAO mean is progged to go strongly negative with most GEFS members remaining negative through the end of the month. The AO mean is progged to go slightly negative with most members remaining negative through the end of November as well. Based on data from the GEFS and ECMWF-EPS, the core of the cold air (with the largest negative anomalies) is progged to move across the Midwest the weekend of November 22-25. Although still below normal, there are indications of temperatures beginning to moderate toward the holiday and holiday weekend at the end of November. Although details are not known this far out, the coming pattern change brings the prospects of clipper-type systems. Origin points could be from the Alberta or Saskatchewan Provinces of Canada. If sufficient cold air is present then precipitation could very well be in the form of snow at times. However, the ground is extremely warm so any snow would melt on contact. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Uttech CLIMATE...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
618 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain and drizzle will taper off from southwest to northeast late this afternoon through mid-evening. Overcast conditions will persist into Friday morning. - High temperatures will range from 5 to 10 degrees above normal through early next week. - Next potentially impactful weather system is forecast to arrive on Monday night and Tuesday with widespread rain and breezy conditions. Wet and cool conditions are expected through the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Friday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a broad area of weak low pressure centered over far southern Lower Michigan early this afternoon. An elongated upper trough extends from the Ohio Valley to northeast Wisconsin and western Lake Superior. Coverage of showers and drizzle has been steadily diminishing over northeast WI. However, low stratus extends west to the eastern Dakotas where moisture is trapped below an inversion centered at 850-800mb. Clearing is occurring over the central and western Dakotas west of a surface ridge axis. Focus of the forecast revolves around precip and cloud trends. Clouds and Precipitation: Chances of precipitation (light rain and drizzle) will diminish over northeast Wisconsin late this afternoon into early this evening as the upper trough and associated mid- level moisture exits to the east. Saturation seems rather robust below the inversion over Minnesota, so believe erosion of the low overcast will be slow and likely not to occur until Friday when clearing should occur from southwest to northeast over the course of the day. Some breaks may occur at times, but predictability of when and where is low. Temperatures: Due to the cloud cover, went slightly warmer than the NationalBlend for min temps tonight. No significant changes to temps on Friday with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday Relatively low impact weather remains expected through early next week. Light rain chances along a cold front on Saturday night into Sunday is one forecast concern. But the primary concern will be revolving around a cyclone due to impact the region starting on Monday night. Precipitation: A reasonably potent low pressure system will be tracking northeast from the northern Plains to northern Ontario on Saturday and Sunday. This low will push a cold front east and across the state on Saturday night into early Sunday. Precipitable water values will be climbing upwards of 200% of normal along the front despite the most impressive dynamics passing north of the region. Because of the dry air ahead of the system, forecast soundings indicate trouble achieving deep saturation. Probabilities have increased for precipitation, but the saturation issues indicate amounts will be light. The chance of rain will exit early Sunday morning. In the wake of this system, attention then turns to dynamic energy that will be lifting northeast from the southwest conus early next week. Models indicate this energy will be weakening as it moves into the northern Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes on Monday and Monday night. With dynamics and cold air mainly west of the region, temperatures look sufficiently warm for precip to be rain. Gusty winds and moderate rain look to be the main impacts from this system through Tuesday. A little too far out to get a handle on specifics thereafter. Predictability in the pattern for the middle of next week is quite low due to blocking occurring over eastern North America, split flow over the west, and potential for phasing systems. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 618 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Lingering drizzle will slowly end across eastern WI this evening, with dry conditions expected the rest of the TAF period. Plenty of low-level moisture will keep mainly IFR/MVFR ceilings in place tonight into at least Friday morning, with some lower visibilities possible at times as well, especially if any breaks in the clouds can develop. Then, as high pressure builds into the region, skies will begin to clear out Friday afternoon and evening, but some lower clouds could remain as surface low turns to the southeast. Some higher clouds will also spread into the region later on Friday. Winds will remain under 10 kts. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC AVIATION.......Bersch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
851 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drizzle and showers ending tonight - A few showers and unseasonably mild through early next week - Cool and rainy middle next week, snow showers late week && .UPDATE... Issued at 851 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 We have added patchy fog to the forecast for the rest of the evening into the overnight period for areas east of US-131. Sfc obs attm indicate patchy fog is developing across this area. A consensus of latest higher res model guidance such as latest runs of the HRRR suggest that fog will continue to develop east of US-131 through the rest of the evening and overnight. The fog is not widespread or dense enough to warrant a fog headline. However localized dense fog is possible. Otherwise the going forecast looks excellent and no other changes are necessary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 - Drizzle and showers ending tonight Low pressure transferring to the Atlantic coast this evening with showers moving east and drizzle slowly decreasing. High pressure builds in by Friday with some lingering lake effect rain showers in northerly flow but these will be light and largely remain offshore. - A few showers and unseasonably mild through early next week An amplified large-scale weather pattern continues this weekend, with a ridge of high pressure over much of the eastern CONUS and a sharp trough in the western CONUS. Michigan falls into broad southwesterly flow starting this weekend as the ridge axis slides to our east. A fast-moving and fairly weak system moves through the upper Great Lakes Saturday night, bringing a few showers and gusty southwest winds to West Michigan, but overall having a pretty minor impact on us. The more consequential movements in the atmosphere during this time will be a developing cutoff low near the desert southwest, sitting in the base of the amplifying longwave trough. - Cool and rainy middle next week, turning to snow showers late week Guidance is in good agreement that by Monday morning the cutoff low near the four corners will eject rapidly to the northeast and head toward the Great Lakes. The main impact for us will primarily be another round of widespread beneficial rain for the day Tuesday. This low pressure will be filling/weakening as it moves our direction, and the remnant low stalls over Wisconsin through Wednesday. At the same time, a vigorous upper trough approaches quickly from the west during this timeframe and will capture the leftover storm system in Wisconsin. This combined system turns into a large and slow-moving low pressure system that will begin anchoring a longwave trough over the Great Lakes for the 2nd half of next week... possibly continuing through next weekend. While this will keep showers in our area for several consecutive days, the bigger impact will be the ushering in of the first winter- like temperatures of the season on the backside of the low. There is still pretty significant spread among the global models on exactly where the upper low migrates, which will determine how quickly the cold air rushes into Michigan, but at this point it looks like late Friday into Saturday is the best bet - kicking off lake effect snow bands and likely bringing the first snowflakes of the year to most areas. It`s too early to spend much time thinking about any lake effect snow accumulations, but it`s definitely in the realm of possibility and will be a main focus of the forecast as we get closer in time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Primarily IFR/LIFR conditions are forecast tonight through midday Friday due to low cigs and patchy fog. Conditions will only slowly improve to primarily MVFR late Friday morning and early afternoon as fog dissipates and cigs slowly improve. Winds will be light at below 10 kts at all the terminals through the next 24 hrs. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Conditions will continue to the relatively placid on Lake Michigan until Sunday when southwest winds will quickly ramp up to abo0ut 30 knots as low pressure approaches. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Laurens DISCUSSION...Ostuno/AMD AVIATION...Laurens MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front and developing low pressure will track across the area tonight, with the low strengthening rapidly just off the coast early Friday bringing strong winds, significant coastal impacts and locally heavy rain. A ridge of high pressure will then build into the Carolinas this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1000 PM Thu...Surface low continues to slowly deepen as it migrates along a warm front continuing to hug the immediate coast. Band of enhanced precipitation continues to push across the coastal plain ahead of an inverted trough, but main focus is on a small but impressive cluster of enhanced reflectivity along coastal Onslow County riding the aforementioned front. RAP MUCAPE values are as high as 500 J/kg in this area, and with 0-1 km SRHs near 100 m2/s2 a brief uptick in tornado potential is being watched along the Highway 24 corridor for the next hour or so. Other change to the forecast tonight was to bump up near term temperatures, as low clouds and precipitation have kept the diurnal curve relatively flat. Otherwise, remainder of the public forecast remains in good shape. Prev disc...Aloft, a negatively tilted mid level shortwave will continue to move through the Carolinas, cutting off an upper low across eastern NC late tonight into Friday. This will result in cyclogenesis over eastern NC late tonight with a rapidly deepening surface low across coastal NC early Friday, moving off the coast by Fri afternoon. Heavier rain axis is now shifting across the coastal plain this evening and will continue to steadily march eastward through the near term. Due to the prolonged dry spell, the area can handle a decent amount of rainfall, however some of the models are indicating local rainfall amounts of 3+" which would result in local urban and poor drainage flood problems. Area most at risk would be locations near the Albemarle Sound and the Outer Banks, which we will continue to watch for potential for localized flooding. Towards dawn Friday as the low continues to intensify and move along the coast, strong northerly winds will develop on the backside of the low, strongest along the immediate coast. High Wind Warnings continue for the Outer Banks for wind gusts in excess of 60 mph...and Wind Adv continue for Dare, Tyrell, Hyde, and eastern Carteret counties for wind gusts of 50-55 mph. The strong winds will result in coastal flooding issues, especially on Friday. Please see the coastal flood section below for additional details. CF Warnings and Advisories continue. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s well inland to the upper 50s beaches. May see lows around midnight, then slowly increasing especially along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Thu...Highly impactful low pressure system will impact the area Friday, rapidly deepening as it moves off the Outer Banks...bringing strong winds, significant coastal impacts and locally heavy rain to eastern NC. The low is forecast to deepen at least 1mb/hour, and would classify as bombogenesis if the time duration was longer, but for all intents and purposes, will be. Of most concern is the dynamic nature of this low, which has the potential to bring even stronger winds than currently forecasted with mesoscale details difficult to resolve even with CAMs. At this time have strongly worded high wind warnings, though wouldn`t be surprised to see a small area of hurricane force wind gusts somewhere on the OBX if sting jet develops on backside of the mesolow. High Wind Warnings continue for the Outer Banks with gusts up to 60 mph, with Wind Advisories for counties adj to the sounds gusting 45-55 mph. The low traversing through the heart of the OBX and rapid deepening will lead to potentially dangerous and life threatening rapid water level rises (See Coastal Flood Section below for more details). This system will also bring a beneficial rainfall to the region, with most locations picking up at least 1-1.5 inches of rain through mid day Friday (most falling Thu night and early Fri). Higher totals are expected farther east where 2-4 inches of rain are possible (highest near the Albemarle Sound and the OBX). With intense lift and upright UVV developing, per model x-section analysis, some places may see isolated rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches, which would lead to localized flooding issues if realized. Best chance for these amounts acrs the northeast zones. Winds slowly wind down later Friday afternoon and into the evening with rain ending during the afternoon hours. Temps cool with the rain/clouds/gusty nrly winds, with highs mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 AM Thu...High pressure builds in for the weekend to early next week bringing seasonable temperatures and dry weather to the region. Saturday through Monday...Another ridge of high pressure then begins to build in from the west this weekend into early next week with dry weather expected. Temps will be near climo through this period with highs in the 65-70 degree range and lows in the lower 40s for most. Tuesday through Wednesday...The ridge of high pres amplifies and sfc high traverses south of the region during this period, with temps warming back to above climo, into the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Conditions appear to remain on the dry side with the ridge still in control. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00z Sat/... As of 715 PM Thu...Coastal low will bring widespread sub-VFR conditions, rain and gusty winds tonight into Friday. MVFR cigs are beginning to intrude along the coastal plain this evening in tandem with axis of heavier precipitation, and these cigs are expected to drop further to IFR/LIFR by 03z as winds quickly turn north and a weak inversion develops in a heavily saturated layer. Easterly winds will become gusty 15-25 kt this evening then shift N late tonight and Fri morning with gusts to 25-30 kt possible. Cigs will be slow to improve Fri morning, grad returning to VFR between 18-21z. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Thu...VFR conditions expected with light winds returning. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 230 PM Thu...Mariners are advised to prepare for a period of extreme winds and dangerous marine conditions which will begin late tonight and continue Fri. Storm Force to Gale Force winds and seas in excess of 15 ft are currently expected for the eastern NC waters. These conditions will be the result of a rapidly developing surface low over eastern NC late tonight which will move offshore of the NC coast on Fri. Latest obs continue to show E winds 10-20 kt gusting 15-20 kt with seas 4-7 ft. These conditions will continue today, then tonight winds will veer to SE and increase to 20-30 kt after midnight, the shift to N and increase to 35-45 with gusts to 50 kt toward dawn Fri as the low moves off of the coast. Seas will build to 6-10 ft tonight, peaking up to 15-20 kt across the central waters Friday. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Thu...Gusty nwrly winds in the SCA range expected for Sat, then winds and seas should drop below SCA for Sun into Mon. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM Thu...Coastal Flood Warnings/Advisories and High Surf Adv in effect for late tonight into Sat. High astronomical King tides are expected through this weekend. Low pressure is expected to rapidly intensify off the NC coast Friday morning, and will lead to potentially dangerous and life-threatening rapid water level rises on the OBX due to waters from the Pamlico Sound as easterly winds switch to north and rapidly intensify. Moderate to locally major oceanside and soundside coastal flooding (inundation 2-4 ft agl), ocean overwash, beach erosion and dangerous surf are all likely, with conditions peaking Friday. Greatest impacts likely along the Outer Banks, with more minor impacts (1-2 ft agl) along the Crystal Coast. Minor coastal flooding may continue into the weekend due to the high astronomical tides. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ046-047-081. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for NCZ094-194. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ195-196-199. High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ196-203>205. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Friday for NCZ196. Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ203>205. High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-136-137- 230. Storm Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EST Friday for AMZ135-150-158- 231. Storm Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/MS SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/MS MARINE...CQD/TL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
705 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry and somewhat warmer weather returns late tonight into Saturday before the next chance of rain late weekend. - Still plenty of model uncertainty regarding storm system developing over the Midwest/Great Lakes region for mid-late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave trof moving across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Rain associated with the trof that spread n into roughly the eastern 2/3rds of Upper MI late last night and early this morning has been diminishing. Remaining pcpn across the e half of the fcst area is quite light, much of it not much more than -dz. To the w, clouds have scattered out, allowing for some sun across Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. Current temps are mostly in the mid and upper 40s F. Lingering areas of -ra/-dz will end this evening. Otherwise, the fcst area will become situated in a col area with high pres to the ne and sw and low pres to the nw and se. The resulting lack of advection of drier air should result in low clouds lingering thru the night where low clouds currently exist. These clouds would then prevent radiational cooling that would support expansion of fog as well as dense fog development, aided by wet ground from today`s rainfall. To the w where there are currently breaks in the clouds, some patchy fog may develop, but it also didn`t rain in that area which will be a negative for fog. In any event, fcst will reflect patchy fog mention, mainly over western Upper MI. Provided skies don`t clear out tonight, expect min temps generally in the mid 30s to lwr 40s F. Winds will diminish to calm/near calm. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 The extended period remains fairly progressive throughout as a deepening upper-level low over the western U.S. slowly shifts eastward into the central CONUS by late next week. Because of this, we can expect to see some shortwaves ejected from the aforementioned low that could bring additional precipitation chances this weekend and again for the mid part/latter half of next week. Overall, temperatures are still projected to be above normal for this time of year as Gulf air is still able to traverse into our region and continental polar air is blocked by upper-level ridging. Soupy lower-levels may keep some patchy dense fog across the western half of the U.P. Friday morning as weak high pressure ridging of only around 1019mb continues to dig into the Great Lakes region. While the sunlight will eventually work to get rid of the fog at the surface by the late morning/afternoon hours, with model soundings showing the lower levels being continually socked in with high RHs, warming due to diurnal heating will be somewhat limited as winds remain light throughout the day. Therefore, I`ve nudged the temperatures down a couple of degrees to limit highs to the upper 40s to around 50 across the area, with the warmest temperatures expected in the south central. As the lower levels remain socked-in for Friday night too, I`m expecting the low temperatures to be a little warmer than what bias-corrected guidance is showing. Therefore, I`m expecting lows to generally be limited to the 30s Friday night. While we may see a drizzle shower or two pop up across the area as troughing and warm air advection increases from the west via a shortwave ejecting from the Rockies, not much, if any rainfall, is expected Friday and Friday night. If anything does fall, expect the rain accumulations to be limited to around 0.01 inch. Expect the next system rainfall to occur this weekend as the shortwave low continues lifting from the Rockies into northern Ontario late this week through this weekend. With ensemble guidance showing PWATs increasing from 0.35 inches to 0.75+ inches ahead of low`s cold front this weekend, expect most of the rainfall to fall in the east half of the U.P. as the moisture content of the atmosphere improves with time as the cold front traverses east across Upper Michigan. However, model guidance is suggesting that not much rainfall is expected to fall with this system, with many places in the western half of the U.P. possibly not even seeing up to 0.10 inches of rainfall (if anything at all!). However, guidance does suggest that the east will see a couple of tenths more, with some spots possibly getting up to 0.30 inches. Another dry period is expected early next week as ridging moves in behind the shortwave low. However, as the troughing pattern shifts from the western U.S. to the central CONUS mid to late next week, expect another low to lift towards the Upper Midwest and bring additional precipitation to the area late in the extended period. Given the high model spread mid to late next week, the confidence in the timing of the precipitation is very low. However, given that multiple suites have been showing this solution occurring over several model runs, the confidence is there that precipitation is expected to occur. Recently, ensemble guidance has been trending the precipitation type to be rainfall as the newer runs are warmer than previously predicted. However, we may still sneak in some snowfall chances at the end of the period, provided that some colder air from Canada is able to finally dip down into the Upper Midwest (dependent on the upper-level ridging moving east out of our area). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 705 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Light rain has ended across the area; however, IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning across central and western Upper MI. At IWD, IFR cigs have already developed and will persist tonight before scattering out tomorrow morning. CMX will see LIFR conditions persist overnight. As winds shift to become westerly Friday morning, conditions at CMX will to VFR by tomorrow afternoon. At SAW, conditions are currently bouncing around between VRF and IFR. We expect cigs to drop overnight, becoming LIFR before improving to MVFR by early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Winds remain light at 20 knots or less the rest of the work week as weak high pressure ridging moves through the area as troughing deepens over the western U.S. and upper-level ridging builds over the central CONUS. However, winds look to begin increasing from the south on Saturday as a low ejects from the troughing pattern and lifts from the Rockies towards northern Ontario. Winds build up to around 30 knots over the eastern half of the lake Saturday night ahead of the low`s cold front, and could gust up to westerly gales of 35 knots behind the cold front Sunday (60% chance of low-end gales over the eastern lake to 90% chance over the west half according to the NBM). Winds weaken to 20 knots or less again by next Monday as high pressure ridging returns to the area. As the upper-level low over the western U.S. slowly makes its way eastward into the central U.S. mid to late next week, expect a low to lift towards the Upper Midwest. This low is expected to bring stronger east to northeasterly winds back across the area, with the stronger winds possibly coming in as soon as next Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...RM MARINE...TAP