Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/15/24
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
952 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from the Maritimes will impact the region Friday
into the weekend. Another low will approach Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930pm Update (MS): Clear skies remain in place across the entire
area tonight, with cloud cover very slowly building westward over
far southeastern New Brunswick. Winds are gradually increasing out
of the north across eastern locations. Showers have reached
Moncton, New Brunswick. However, the leading edge of cloud cover
remains well east of Fredericton and Miramichi. The 18z HRDPS and
0z HRRR are handling the location of the leading edge well, and
are on the drier end of the spectrum for QPF heading into Maine
after 12z, particularly for western zones. Given these trends and
increasing confidence that any precipitation will begin too late
when insolation is occurring, the Winter Weather Advisory has been
discontinued for the western most tier of zones, including
Bangor. Some patchy freezing rain could still occur north of the
higher terrain east of Greenville and over far northern Hancock
County due to upslope flow and enhanced localized cold air
damming, but the threat is very limited compared to areas to the
east. Uncertainty remains on the QPF elsewhere in the advisory
area, and a further delay or lighter precipitation would mean
additional zones would need to be removed from the advisory.
Observational trends will continue to be monitored overnight.
Previous Discussion:
The Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 to 11 AM
Friday. High pressure will retreat westward tonight through
Friday, while low pressure retrogades toward the Maritimes from
the open Atlantic. High pressure will keep mostly clear skies
across the region early tonight. Clouds will then expand
westward across New Brunswick into eastern portions of the
forecast area late tonight. Precipitation will also expand back
toward the Maine/New Brunswick border very late tonight. Warmer
air aloft from the Maritimes will expand across the region
overnight. At the surface, favorable radiational cooling
conditions will allow low levels to cool rapidly before clouds
begin to increase late tonight. Based on the thermal profile,
expect precipitation in the form of a light wintry mix across
eastern portions of the forecast area late tonight. However,
models are still trending slower with the arrival time of
precipitation which will be fighting the very dry air with
retreating high pressure. Thus, have delayed the onset time of
the Winter Weather Advisory. Any ice accumulations will be
light, ranging from a trace possibly up to a tenth of an inch.
This has also led to increased uncertainty regarding how
quickly, along with the extent to which, precipitation expands
westward across the remainder of the forecast area.
Precipitation will transition to rain through Friday morning
into the afternoon with warmer air wrapping back across the
forecast area from the Maritimes. Low temperatures tonight will
occur during the early morning hours then begin to slowly warm
late. Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 20s
across western areas, with mid 20s across eastern areas. High
temperatures Friday will range from the mid to upper 30s across
much of the forecast area, with around 40 to the lower 40s along
the Downeast coast and southwest corner of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precipitation is expected to gradually retreat to the east
Friday night and Saturday. As the low moves eastward, some
colder air will filter back in aloft and the precip will become
more showery in nature. By this time, temperatures will have
warmed above freezing across the forecast area, so freezing rain
will no longer be a concern. Northwest flow will bring some
colder air on the backside, but by the time the colder
temperatures have filtered into the mountains, precipitation
will have all but ceased. Therefore, decided to keep surface
temperatures above freezing and limit any freezing rain across
the North Woods Saturday morning. As for amounts, little to no
QPF is expected at this point so not expecting these showers to
have much of an impact. Northwesterly winds on the backside of
this low will be gusty; not advisory level but have increased
the forecast from NBM base winds since studies indicate the
current blend is consistently low on wind speeds with windier
conditions.
By Sunday, upper level ridging will move overhead and dry
weather is expected on Sunday. Winds will decrease as well and
overall Sunday is expected to be a pleasant day. Highs will be
in the mid-40s and lows in the upper 20s across the region, so
slightly warmer than normal although not unusual.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for precipitation comes on Monday with a weak
front expected to cross the area. Warm air advection during the
day on Monday will ensure that any precip starts out as rain,
but cooler air on the backside of the front Monday night may
bring a brief mix of snow Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Regardless, this looks like a low QPF event so impacts will be
limited again. Weather remains quiet and dry for the remainder
of the week, with seasonable temperatures. This patch of quiet
weather will not do much to alleviate any drought concerns for
the state, however, cooler temperatures will minimize
evaporation so conditions are likely to remain status quo.
Thursday night, the potential begins for a larger, more potent
system approaching from the west. However, as is typical with
stronger systems at the end of the period, there is a large
variation in timing and development of this system. So,
confidence is increasing in a weather system for the end of next
week, but confidence in the details of that system is low at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight. VFR/MVFR early Friday, then MVFR/IFR. A
light wintry mix early Friday, transitioning to rain. North
winds 5 to 10 knots early tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots late. North/northwest winds 10 to 20
knots with gusts up to 25 knots Friday. Northerly low level wind
shear develops during the early morning hours then persists
into Friday afternoon.
SHORT TERM:
Friday night and Saturday...IFR cigs north of GNR
and HUL with tempo IFR vis in drizzle. Mostly MVFR towards BGR
and BHB due to cigs. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt.
Saturday night...IFR cigs with tempo IFR vis in
drizzle north of HUL and GNR, improving through the night. VFR
for BHB and BGR. Northwest winds near 10 kt.
Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt.
Monday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR with a chance of MVFR cigs
north of HUL and GNR. Light west winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the
waters tonight through Friday. A slight chance of rain late
tonight, then a chance of rain Friday.
SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions are expected to continue
through Saturday morning. A few gale force gusts may occur
Friday night. Winds will continue to be gusty through Sunday and
the small craft advisory may need to be extended through the
weekend. Right now, kept the forecast to minimum small craft
gusts through Sunday. Small craft winds may return Monday night
into Tuesday. Seas will be 3 to 5 feet through the period, with
highest seas further offshore.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Friday for
MEZ001-002-004>006-011-017-030-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Brennan/MStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Brennan/MStrauser/Norcross/LF
Marine...Brennan/Norcross/LF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
527 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Dry into Friday, with patchy fog (some dense) mainly south and west
late tonight into early Friday
-Quiet with mainly dry weather into the weekend, outside of minimal
chances (around 10%) of rain southeast late Saturday into Sunday
-Multiple chances for precipitation through next week, much
cooler towards the latter half
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Dreary conditions remain across the greater majority of Iowa, as
thick cloud cover continues to blanket all but the southwest portion
of Iowa early this afternoon as the low pressure system previously
overhead from yesterday departs east. Temperatures have been a bit
slow to increase through the day so far with the overall lack of
sunshine, which will likely lead to slightly cooler temperatures
than what were expected, so values have been bumped down at least a
degree or two over portions of the areas where clouds remain. Highs
in the upper 40s to low 50s are expected this afternoon. These
clouds should gradually exit at least the southwestern two-thirds of
Iowa into the evening, though some cloud cover looks to return into
Friday morning. Lingering low level moisture and light winds over at
least portions of western into southern Iowa into Friday morning per
model guidance such as the HREF, NAM, HRRR has placed patchy areas
of fog, some areas even dense. However, other models dry out the
lower levels and lessen the overall potential, but given how
conditions are playing out so far, would lean more towards the
higher likelihood that this fog will gradually develop. Further
confidence is needed however for potential headline
consideration, so will be continuing to monitor trends over the
next several hours and adjust the forecast as needed. Overnight
lows are expected to be on the chilly side, with values in the
mid to upper 30s.
Upper level ridging moving into the central US into Friday and at
least the start of the weekend will lead to dry and quiet weather
across Iowa. Increasing low southwest flow, especially into
Saturday, will lead to warmer air pushing into the state, with highs
expected to reach into the upper 50s to low 60s, several degrees
above average for high temperatures given the time of year. Winds
will be breezy as a result with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph,
especially north. A shortwave breaking away from a larger trough
tracking across the southwestern CONUS and lifting northeast into
the Dakotas looks to develop a frontal boundary setting up over at
least southeastern Iowa late Saturday into early Sunday. Though
moisture per model soundings is present in the low levels with
moderate warm air advection, weaker forcing for lift through much of
the column looks to keep conditions dry, so have currently left out
any rain mention in the forecast at this time and will continue to
monitor for potential changes.
All eyes remain focused on next week as major changes are expected
to occur. The week starts out with the larger trough mentioned above
over the southwestern CONUS deepening more significantly, then
ejecting north/northeastward into the Central Plains and gradually
into Iowa by Tuesday. Long range guidance per latest runs seem to be
in better agreement on widespread rain chances increasing from south
to north through Monday morning, with the state within the warm
sector of the strengthening low pressure as it continues to lift
north through Tuesday. Periods of heavier rainfall remain in play
given the strong surge of warm and moist air from the south paired
with widespread ascent within an area of moderate frontogenesis, as
signaled with this system per GFS guidance, with ensemble mean
rainfall totals generally depicting at least 1-2 inches over much of
the state. Cannot rule out some potential for thunderstorm activity
given increasing dewpoints reaching into the low 50s and warmer
temperatures for the time of year as well in the 50s paired with the
stronger forcing, but the overall potential remains lower end at
this time and will continue to watch closely. As the low stalls over
the Upper Midwest and circulates overhead per GFS guidance with
increasing NW flow, could see the remaining potential for some
introduction of winter precipitation. The Euro has a different take
on the evolution of this system as another area of low pressure
developing within the larger trough lifts into the Central Plains
and becomes ingested into the earlier week system, creating a much
more defined low pressure with the deformation zone right over Iowa,
which given enough moisture and stronger forcing for ascent suggests
much more impactful precipitation over the area, especially as
temperatures are generally expected to be much cooler with lows in
the 30s and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s into the latter work
week. Still too far out to get into more specific details on
expected weather and impacts, but definitely quite dynamic with
different possibilities producing significant differences in
outcomes. Will be watching trends over the next several days as more
becomes better known as more model members pick up these systems
through next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Stratus continues to slowly pull east this evening with overcast
MVFR ceilings giving way to VFR unrestricted ceilings. However,
recent rainfall and good radiational cooling may allow for the
development of fog overnight impacting all TAF sites with MVFR
visibilities for a few hours on either side of sunrise. The fog
is expected to burn off gradually on Friday morning as mixing
slowly increases. Surface winds are light and variable overnight
becoming southeast with a modest increase in speed by midday
Friday.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Cogil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
544 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog are possible across the southwest portion of the
outlook area late tonight into Friday morning and could become
locally dense.
- Quiet and warmer weather through Saturday.
- Active weather Sunday through the end of next week with a
major change in the weather patten. Please the climate section
below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
The main forecast problem in the short term is whether clouds
will move out of the area or lingering through Friday. A closed
500 MB trough over the area is forecast to move into the Mid
Atlantic states as 500 ridging builds into the area at the
surface and aloft. Bufkit soundings show a strong subsidence
inversion across the area through the period which would keep
clouds in place across the area. In addition, HREF and SREF
probabilities show a high probability of the clouds lingering
through the period. In collaboration with neighboring offices
have decided to raise low temperatures by a couple of degrees
resulting in low temperatures in the mid 30s west of a Cedar
Rapids to Kahoka Missouri line with upper 30s to around 40
degrees along and east of the Mississippi River. Lowered high
temperatures slightly on Friday but still widespread
temperatures in the mid 50s.
A second question is whether or not we will see dense fog
development tonight. The HRRR and HREF show the possibility of
fog developing across the area mainly southwest of a Fairfield
to Keokuk to Quincy Illinois line. Think that any fog
development will be tied to whether or not we see clearing and
have left the mention of fog out of the forecast for now. If
clouds do push to the east, any areas that see clearing will
have to monitored for the potential of dense fog late tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
During the long term period the weather pattern will go through
a large scale pattern change especially during the mid to later
parts of next week.
Friday night into Saturday shows a highly amplified ridge
across the area as a deep trough moves across the Inter Mountain
West. A shortwave moving from Idaho into Wyoming is forecast to
break off from this trough and move eastward across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday into Sunday. At this
time, this storm systems looks like it lacks moisture and
chances have been limited to areas along and south of
Interstate 80. Chances of rain showers range from 20 to 50
percent with the highest chances in far northeast Missouri and
adjacent areas of Iowa and Illinois. There is a low chance for
thunderstorms and they were left out of the forecast.
In the wake of the Sunday into Sunday storm system, the flow
aloft will become more southwesterly as a closed 500 MB low in
the southwest begins to eject into the Plains for the start of
next week. The most recent runs of the operational GFS and
ECMWF as well as the GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble have come into
better agreement of this upper level low lifting northeastward
into the Upper Midwest and then merging with another shortwave
moving eastward across the northern US resulting in a large
closed low over the central US through next Wednesday. This will
bring the chance for several rounds of showers and possible
storms before a cold front moves across the area late Tuesday.
At this time, rainfall amounts look light. In addition to
chances for rain, a strong pressure gradient is forecast to be
in place across the area and is expected to bring breezy to
windy conditions across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. At
this time, the NBM is showing a 20 to 30 percent chance of wind
gusts over 30 MPH on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Latest satellite imagery showed a large area of low stratus
over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The clouds/moisture
is trapped beneath a low-level inversion and will take a while
to mix out, so anticipate MVFR ceilings to persist into tonight.
As high pressure continues to build in, the stratus deck should
begin to gradually break up and we can anticipate a return to
VFR late tonight into early Friday morning from west to east.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
As mentioned in the key messages, a major pattern change will
occur the week of November 17th to a more active and much colder
than normal regime. This colder than normal regime potentially
may remain across the area until the end of November.
The anomalous cut off low that develops in the Rockies will
slowly move into the mid-CONUS early next week as a longwave
trof begins to develop over the eastern CONUS. Energy topping
the weak west coast ridge will drop into the developing longwave
trof and deepen it.
As the longwave trof deepens, the NAO mean is progged to go
strongly negative with most GEFS members remaining negative
through the end of the month. The AO mean is progged to go
slightly negative with most members remaining negative through
the end of November as well.
Based on data from the GEFS and ECMWF-EPS, the core of the cold
air (with the largest negative anomalies) is progged to move
across the Midwest the weekend of November 22-25. Although still
below normal, there are indications of temperatures beginning
to moderate toward the holiday and holiday weekend at the end of
November.
Although details are not known this far out, the coming pattern
change brings the prospects of clipper-type systems. Origin
points could be from the Alberta or Saskatchewan Provinces of
Canada. If sufficient cold air is present then precipitation
could very well be in the form of snow at times. However, the
ground is extremely warm so any snow would melt on contact.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Uttech
CLIMATE...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
618 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain and drizzle will taper off from southwest to
northeast late this afternoon through mid-evening. Overcast
conditions will persist into Friday morning.
- High temperatures will range from 5 to 10 degrees above normal
through early next week.
- Next potentially impactful weather system is forecast to arrive
on Monday night and Tuesday with widespread rain and breezy
conditions. Wet and cool conditions are expected through the
middle part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Friday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a broad
area of weak low pressure centered over far southern Lower
Michigan early this afternoon. An elongated upper trough extends
from the Ohio Valley to northeast Wisconsin and western Lake
Superior. Coverage of showers and drizzle has been steadily
diminishing over northeast WI. However, low stratus extends west
to the eastern Dakotas where moisture is trapped below an
inversion centered at 850-800mb. Clearing is occurring over the
central and western Dakotas west of a surface ridge axis. Focus of
the forecast revolves around precip and cloud trends.
Clouds and Precipitation: Chances of precipitation (light rain and
drizzle) will diminish over northeast Wisconsin late this
afternoon into early this evening as the upper trough and
associated mid- level moisture exits to the east. Saturation seems
rather robust below the inversion over Minnesota, so believe
erosion of the low overcast will be slow and likely not to occur
until Friday when clearing should occur from southwest to
northeast over the course of the day. Some breaks may occur at
times, but predictability of when and where is low.
Temperatures: Due to the cloud cover, went slightly warmer than
the NationalBlend for min temps tonight. No significant changes to
temps on Friday with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday
Relatively low impact weather remains expected through early next
week. Light rain chances along a cold front on Saturday night into
Sunday is one forecast concern. But the primary concern will be
revolving around a cyclone due to impact the region starting on
Monday night.
Precipitation: A reasonably potent low pressure system will be
tracking northeast from the northern Plains to northern Ontario on
Saturday and Sunday. This low will push a cold front east and
across the state on Saturday night into early Sunday. Precipitable
water values will be climbing upwards of 200% of normal along the
front despite the most impressive dynamics passing north of the
region. Because of the dry air ahead of the system, forecast
soundings indicate trouble achieving deep saturation. Probabilities
have increased for precipitation, but the saturation issues indicate
amounts will be light. The chance of rain will exit early Sunday
morning.
In the wake of this system, attention then turns to dynamic energy
that will be lifting northeast from the southwest conus early next
week. Models indicate this energy will be weakening as it moves
into the northern Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes on Monday
and Monday night. With dynamics and cold air mainly west of the
region, temperatures look sufficiently warm for precip to be rain.
Gusty winds and moderate rain look to be the main impacts from this
system through Tuesday.
A little too far out to get a handle on specifics thereafter.
Predictability in the pattern for the middle of next week is quite
low due to blocking occurring over eastern North America, split
flow over the west, and potential for phasing systems.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 618 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Lingering drizzle will slowly end across eastern WI this evening,
with dry conditions expected the rest of the TAF period. Plenty of
low-level moisture will keep mainly IFR/MVFR ceilings in place
tonight into at least Friday morning, with some lower visibilities
possible at times as well, especially if any breaks in the clouds
can develop. Then, as high pressure builds into the region, skies
will begin to clear out Friday afternoon and evening, but some
lower clouds could remain as surface low turns to the southeast.
Some higher clouds will also spread into the region later on
Friday. Winds will remain under 10 kts.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......Bersch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
851 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drizzle and showers ending tonight
- A few showers and unseasonably mild through early next week
- Cool and rainy middle next week, snow showers late week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
We have added patchy fog to the forecast for the rest of the
evening into the overnight period for areas east of US-131. Sfc
obs attm indicate patchy fog is developing across this area. A
consensus of latest higher res model guidance such as latest runs
of the HRRR suggest that fog will continue to develop east of
US-131 through the rest of the evening and overnight. The fog is
not widespread or dense enough to warrant a fog headline. However
localized dense fog is possible. Otherwise the going forecast
looks excellent and no other changes are necessary.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
- Drizzle and showers ending tonight
Low pressure transferring to the Atlantic coast this evening with
showers moving east and drizzle slowly decreasing. High pressure
builds in by Friday with some lingering lake effect rain showers
in northerly flow but these will be light and largely remain
offshore.
- A few showers and unseasonably mild through early next week
An amplified large-scale weather pattern continues this weekend,
with a ridge of high pressure over much of the eastern CONUS and a
sharp trough in the western CONUS. Michigan falls into broad
southwesterly flow starting this weekend as the ridge axis slides to
our east. A fast-moving and fairly weak system moves through the
upper Great Lakes Saturday night, bringing a few showers and gusty
southwest winds to West Michigan, but overall having a pretty minor
impact on us. The more consequential movements in the atmosphere
during this time will be a developing cutoff low near the desert
southwest, sitting in the base of the amplifying longwave trough.
- Cool and rainy middle next week, turning to snow showers late week
Guidance is in good agreement that by Monday morning the cutoff low
near the four corners will eject rapidly to the northeast and head
toward the Great Lakes. The main impact for us will primarily be
another round of widespread beneficial rain for the day Tuesday.
This low pressure will be filling/weakening as it moves our
direction, and the remnant low stalls over Wisconsin through
Wednesday. At the same time, a vigorous upper trough approaches
quickly from the west during this timeframe and will capture the
leftover storm system in Wisconsin. This combined system turns into
a large and slow-moving low pressure system that will begin
anchoring a longwave trough over the Great Lakes for the 2nd half of
next week... possibly continuing through next weekend.
While this will keep showers in our area for several consecutive
days, the bigger impact will be the ushering in of the first winter-
like temperatures of the season on the backside of the low. There is
still pretty significant spread among the global models on exactly
where the upper low migrates, which will determine how quickly the
cold air rushes into Michigan, but at this point it looks like late
Friday into Saturday is the best bet - kicking off lake effect snow
bands and likely bringing the first snowflakes of the year to most
areas. It`s too early to spend much time thinking about any lake
effect snow accumulations, but it`s definitely in the realm of
possibility and will be a main focus of the forecast as we get
closer in time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Primarily IFR/LIFR conditions are forecast tonight through midday
Friday due to low cigs and patchy fog. Conditions will only slowly
improve to primarily MVFR late Friday morning and early afternoon
as fog dissipates and cigs slowly improve. Winds will be light at
below 10 kts at all the terminals through the next 24 hrs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Conditions will continue to the relatively placid on Lake Michigan
until Sunday when southwest winds will quickly ramp up to abo0ut
30 knots as low pressure approaches.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Laurens
DISCUSSION...Ostuno/AMD
AVIATION...Laurens
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and developing low pressure will track across the
area tonight, with the low strengthening rapidly just off the
coast early Friday bringing strong winds, significant coastal
impacts and locally heavy rain. A ridge of high pressure will
then build into the Carolinas this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Thu...Surface low continues to slowly deepen as it
migrates along a warm front continuing to hug the immediate
coast. Band of enhanced precipitation continues to push across
the coastal plain ahead of an inverted trough, but main focus is
on a small but impressive cluster of enhanced reflectivity along
coastal Onslow County riding the aforementioned front. RAP
MUCAPE values are as high as 500 J/kg in this area, and with 0-1
km SRHs near 100 m2/s2 a brief uptick in tornado potential is
being watched along the Highway 24 corridor for the next hour or
so.
Other change to the forecast tonight was to bump up near term
temperatures, as low clouds and precipitation have kept the
diurnal curve relatively flat. Otherwise, remainder of the
public forecast remains in good shape.
Prev disc...Aloft, a negatively tilted mid level shortwave will
continue to move through the Carolinas, cutting off an upper
low across eastern NC late tonight into Friday. This will result
in cyclogenesis over eastern NC late tonight with a rapidly
deepening surface low across coastal NC early Friday, moving off
the coast by Fri afternoon.
Heavier rain axis is now shifting across the coastal plain this
evening and will continue to steadily march eastward through the
near term. Due to the prolonged dry spell, the area can handle
a decent amount of rainfall, however some of the models are
indicating local rainfall amounts of 3+" which would result in
local urban and poor drainage flood problems. Area most at risk
would be locations near the Albemarle Sound and the Outer Banks,
which we will continue to watch for potential for localized
flooding. Towards dawn Friday as the low continues to intensify
and move along the coast, strong northerly winds will develop on
the backside of the low, strongest along the immediate coast.
High Wind Warnings continue for the Outer Banks for wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph...and Wind Adv continue for Dare, Tyrell,
Hyde, and eastern Carteret counties for wind gusts of 50-55 mph.
The strong winds will result in coastal flooding issues,
especially on Friday. Please see the coastal flood section below
for additional details. CF Warnings and Advisories continue.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s well inland to the
upper 50s beaches. May see lows around midnight, then slowly
increasing especially along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thu...Highly impactful low pressure system will
impact the area Friday, rapidly deepening as it moves off the
Outer Banks...bringing strong winds, significant coastal impacts
and locally heavy rain to eastern NC. The low is forecast to
deepen at least 1mb/hour, and would classify as bombogenesis if
the time duration was longer, but for all intents and purposes,
will be. Of most concern is the dynamic nature of this low,
which has the potential to bring even stronger winds than
currently forecasted with mesoscale details difficult to resolve
even with CAMs. At this time have strongly worded high wind
warnings, though wouldn`t be surprised to see a small area of
hurricane force wind gusts somewhere on the OBX if sting jet
develops on backside of the mesolow. High Wind Warnings continue
for the Outer Banks with gusts up to 60 mph, with Wind
Advisories for counties adj to the sounds gusting 45-55 mph.
The low traversing through the heart of the OBX and rapid
deepening will lead to potentially dangerous and life
threatening rapid water level rises (See Coastal Flood Section
below for more details).
This system will also bring a beneficial rainfall to the
region, with most locations picking up at least 1-1.5 inches of
rain through mid day Friday (most falling Thu night and early
Fri). Higher totals are expected farther east where 2-4 inches
of rain are possible (highest near the Albemarle Sound and the
OBX). With intense lift and upright UVV developing, per model
x-section analysis, some places may see isolated rainfall
amounts of 3-5 inches, which would lead to localized flooding
issues if realized. Best chance for these amounts acrs the
northeast zones.
Winds slowly wind down later Friday afternoon and into the
evening with rain ending during the afternoon hours. Temps cool
with the rain/clouds/gusty nrly winds, with highs mainly in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thu...High pressure builds in for the weekend to
early next week bringing seasonable temperatures and dry weather
to the region.
Saturday through Monday...Another ridge of high pressure then
begins to build in from the west this weekend into early next
week with dry weather expected. Temps will be near climo through
this period with highs in the 65-70 degree range and lows in
the lower 40s for most.
Tuesday through Wednesday...The ridge of high pres amplifies and
sfc high traverses south of the region during this period, with
temps warming back to above climo, into the 70s and lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Conditions appear to remain on the dry
side with the ridge still in control.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sat/...
As of 715 PM Thu...Coastal low will bring widespread sub-VFR
conditions, rain and gusty winds tonight into Friday. MVFR cigs
are beginning to intrude along the coastal plain this evening in
tandem with axis of heavier precipitation, and these cigs are
expected to drop further to IFR/LIFR by 03z as winds quickly
turn north and a weak inversion develops in a heavily saturated
layer. Easterly winds will become gusty 15-25 kt this evening
then shift N late tonight and Fri morning with gusts to 25-30 kt
possible. Cigs will be slow to improve Fri morning, grad
returning to VFR between 18-21z.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...VFR conditions expected with light winds
returning.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 230 PM Thu...Mariners are advised to prepare for a period
of extreme winds and dangerous marine conditions which will
begin late tonight and continue Fri. Storm Force to Gale Force
winds and seas in excess of 15 ft are currently expected for
the eastern NC waters. These conditions will be the result of a
rapidly developing surface low over eastern NC late tonight
which will move offshore of the NC coast on Fri. Latest obs
continue to show E winds 10-20 kt gusting 15-20 kt with seas 4-7
ft. These conditions will continue today, then tonight winds
will veer to SE and increase to 20-30 kt after midnight, the
shift to N and increase to 35-45 with gusts to 50 kt toward dawn
Fri as the low moves off of the coast. Seas will build to 6-10
ft tonight, peaking up to 15-20 kt across the central waters
Friday.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...Gusty nwrly winds in the SCA range expected
for Sat, then winds and seas should drop below SCA for Sun into
Mon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Thu...Coastal Flood Warnings/Advisories and High
Surf Adv in effect for late tonight into Sat. High astronomical
King tides are expected through this weekend. Low pressure is
expected to rapidly intensify off the NC coast Friday morning,
and will lead to potentially dangerous and life-threatening
rapid water level rises on the OBX due to waters from the
Pamlico Sound as easterly winds switch to north and rapidly
intensify. Moderate to locally major oceanside and soundside
coastal flooding (inundation 2-4 ft agl), ocean overwash, beach
erosion and dangerous surf are all likely, with conditions
peaking Friday. Greatest impacts likely along the Outer Banks,
with more minor impacts (1-2 ft agl) along the Crystal Coast.
Minor coastal flooding may continue into the weekend due to the
high astronomical tides.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ046-047-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for
NCZ094-194.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for NCZ195-196-199.
High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for
NCZ196-203>205.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Friday for NCZ196.
Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for NCZ203>205.
High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-136-137-
230.
Storm Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EST Friday for AMZ135-150-158-
231.
Storm Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MS
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...CQD/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
705 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry and somewhat warmer weather returns late tonight into
Saturday before the next chance of rain late weekend.
- Still plenty of model uncertainty regarding storm system
developing over the Midwest/Great Lakes region for mid-late
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave trof moving
across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Rain associated with the trof
that spread n into roughly the eastern 2/3rds of Upper MI late last
night and early this morning has been diminishing. Remaining pcpn
across the e half of the fcst area is quite light, much of it not
much more than -dz. To the w, clouds have scattered out, allowing
for some sun across Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. Current temps are
mostly in the mid and upper 40s F.
Lingering areas of -ra/-dz will end this evening. Otherwise,
the fcst area will become situated in a col area with high pres
to the ne and sw and low pres to the nw and se. The resulting
lack of advection of drier air should result in low clouds
lingering thru the night where low clouds currently exist. These
clouds would then prevent radiational cooling that would
support expansion of fog as well as dense fog development, aided
by wet ground from today`s rainfall. To the w where there are
currently breaks in the clouds, some patchy fog may develop, but
it also didn`t rain in that area which will be a negative for
fog. In any event, fcst will reflect patchy fog mention, mainly
over western Upper MI. Provided skies don`t clear out tonight,
expect min temps generally in the mid 30s to lwr 40s F. Winds
will diminish to calm/near calm.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
The extended period remains fairly progressive throughout as a
deepening upper-level low over the western U.S. slowly shifts
eastward into the central CONUS by late next week. Because of this,
we can expect to see some shortwaves ejected from the aforementioned
low that could bring additional precipitation chances this weekend
and again for the mid part/latter half of next week. Overall,
temperatures are still projected to be above normal for this time of
year as Gulf air is still able to traverse into our region and
continental polar air is blocked by upper-level ridging.
Soupy lower-levels may keep some patchy dense fog across the western
half of the U.P. Friday morning as weak high pressure ridging of
only around 1019mb continues to dig into the Great Lakes region.
While the sunlight will eventually work to get rid of the fog at the
surface by the late morning/afternoon hours, with model soundings
showing the lower levels being continually socked in with high RHs,
warming due to diurnal heating will be somewhat limited as winds
remain light throughout the day. Therefore, I`ve nudged the
temperatures down a couple of degrees to limit highs to the upper
40s to around 50 across the area, with the warmest temperatures
expected in the south central. As the lower levels remain socked-in
for Friday night too, I`m expecting the low temperatures to be a
little warmer than what bias-corrected guidance is showing.
Therefore, I`m expecting lows to generally be limited to the 30s
Friday night. While we may see a drizzle shower or two pop up across
the area as troughing and warm air advection increases from the west
via a shortwave ejecting from the Rockies, not much, if any
rainfall, is expected Friday and Friday night. If anything does
fall, expect the rain accumulations to be limited to around 0.01
inch.
Expect the next system rainfall to occur this weekend as the
shortwave low continues lifting from the Rockies into northern
Ontario late this week through this weekend. With ensemble guidance
showing PWATs increasing from 0.35 inches to 0.75+ inches ahead of
low`s cold front this weekend, expect most of the rainfall to fall
in the east half of the U.P. as the moisture content of the
atmosphere improves with time as the cold front traverses east across
Upper Michigan. However, model guidance is suggesting that not much
rainfall is expected to fall with this system, with many places in
the western half of the U.P. possibly not even seeing up to 0.10
inches of rainfall (if anything at all!). However, guidance does
suggest that the east will see a couple of tenths more, with some
spots possibly getting up to 0.30 inches.
Another dry period is expected early next week as ridging moves in
behind the shortwave low. However, as the troughing pattern shifts
from the western U.S. to the central CONUS mid to late next week,
expect another low to lift towards the Upper Midwest and bring
additional precipitation to the area late in the extended period.
Given the high model spread mid to late next week, the confidence in
the timing of the precipitation is very low. However, given that
multiple suites have been showing this solution occurring over
several model runs, the confidence is there that precipitation is
expected to occur. Recently, ensemble guidance has been trending the
precipitation type to be rainfall as the newer runs are warmer than
previously predicted. However, we may still sneak in some snowfall
chances at the end of the period, provided that some colder air from
Canada is able to finally dip down into the Upper Midwest (dependent
on the upper-level ridging moving east out of our area).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Light rain has ended across the area; however, IFR to LIFR ceilings
will persist through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning
across central and western Upper MI. At IWD, IFR cigs have already
developed and will persist tonight before scattering out tomorrow
morning. CMX will see LIFR conditions persist overnight. As winds
shift to become westerly Friday morning, conditions at CMX will to
VFR by tomorrow afternoon. At SAW, conditions are currently bouncing
around between VRF and IFR. We expect cigs to drop overnight,
becoming LIFR before improving to MVFR by early afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Winds remain light at 20 knots or less the rest of the work week as
weak high pressure ridging moves through the area as troughing
deepens over the western U.S. and upper-level ridging builds over
the central CONUS. However, winds look to begin increasing from the
south on Saturday as a low ejects from the troughing pattern and
lifts from the Rockies towards northern Ontario. Winds build up to
around 30 knots over the eastern half of the lake Saturday night
ahead of the low`s cold front, and could gust up to westerly gales
of 35 knots behind the cold front Sunday (60% chance of low-end
gales over the eastern lake to 90% chance over the west half
according to the NBM). Winds weaken to 20 knots or less again by
next Monday as high pressure ridging returns to the area. As the
upper-level low over the western U.S. slowly makes its way eastward
into the central U.S. mid to late next week, expect a low to lift
towards the Upper Midwest. This low is expected to bring stronger
east to northeasterly winds back across the area, with the stronger
winds possibly coming in as soon as next Tuesday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TAP