Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/12/24
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
511 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Next best chance of precipitation is Tuesday as a cold front
moves through the region.
- Periods of increased winds will occur over the western
foothills through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The rest of today through Wednesday...
Breezy conditions are developing over the western foothills this
afternoon, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph common. Overnight into
early Tuesday morning, winds are expected to briefly decrease
before becoming breezy across the region as a cold front moves
through Tuesday morning into afternoon. Then, beginning Wednesday
morning, amplified flow and a strengthening pressure gradient
favorable for gap flow winds will lead to a period of strong gusts
in the Livingston to Nye area. Currently for Livingston, there is
an 80% chance of gusts over 50 mph and a 50% chance of gusts
greater than 60 mph through Wednesday afternoon. See the long term
discussion for more on the winds.
With the passage of the cold front, precipitation is possible,
with the best chance over the mountains and foothills. Currently,
there is a 50-70% chance of at least 0.1 inch of precip for the
mountains and foothills, which translates to a few inches of snow.
Over lower elevations west of Rosebud county, there is a 20-40%
chance of 0.1 inch of precip or more which will primarily fall as
rain, although a few snowflakes may be spotted. Archer
Wednesday night through Monday...
Wednesday night into Thursday shows a transition from ridging
aloft to more energetic but dry west to southwest flow over the
area aloft. Underneath this the westerly flow will drop pressures
lee of the Divide, strengthening winds along the western
foothills. Current forecast shows probabilities above 60% for
gusts over 60 mph in the Livingston to Big Timber corridor, with
40 to 50% chances along US-191 from Big Timber to Harlowton
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. By late in the day
Thursday will see flow aloft back more southerly which pushes
surface low pressure further east allowing winds to stay gusty but
relax below the warning/advisory thresholds going into Thursday
night.
Next Pacific storm system begins to impact the area Friday
afternoon with precipitation developing over the western
mountains, translating eastward across the forecast area through
the day Saturday. Latest ECMWF solutions are showing a more
consolidated system crossing the area further to the east compared
to previous runs. This puts our area in a better position for
precipitation, with the latest run showing widespread quarter of
an inch amounts. This is not a terribly cold system given its
Pacific origins, but there are hints at lower elevation
accumulating snow late Friday night through Saturday, including
the Billings area. Still too far out to pin down amounts, but
those planning outdoor activities or travel late Friday through
the coming weekend should keep an eye on the forecast for
potential winter impacts during this period.
Sunday into Monday looks seasonably cool and drier, though there
is still low chances for precipitation lingering mainly over the
mountains and foothills as the area continues under weak troffing.
Chambers
&&
.AVIATION...
00z Update...Stratus is hanging on over far southeast Montana
this afternoon, and does not look like its going to dissipate as
peak heating is passing. Latest HRRR keeps the stratus in early
this evening then begins to lower visibility as the stratus lowers
to at least the hilltops across Carter and southern/eastern
Fallon counties by midnight. Expect MVFR to local LIFR in the
higher hills tonight.
In addition, 12z HREF shows a 20-30% chance of visibility
dropping below 1SM due to fog/mist from about K1S3 to KMLS mainly
from 09z to 15z Tuesday, before a cold front crosses the area.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions will prevail across the area
this evening. Southwest winds will gust to 25-35 kt along the
western foothills, and in particular Livingston through Tuesday
morning when the cold front moves through. Along with the gusty
winds will see the potential for rain/snow showers increase before
sunrise over western mountains and foothills, spreading east
behind the cold frontal passage through the day Tuesday. Expect
mountain obscuration to develop before sunrise. Chambers/RMS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/049 028/053 035/058 029/050 031/041 023/045 027/043
07/R 00/U 00/N 01/B 46/O 20/U 11/B
LVM 033/046 024/050 033/051 025/049 026/039 019/042 022/040
27/O 00/N 11/N 02/O 76/S 21/N 23/S
HDN 033/050 025/054 030/059 026/052 028/041 020/046 023/044
07/R 00/U 00/U 01/B 46/O 20/U 12/O
MLS 030/053 027/053 030/059 028/055 029/041 022/045 024/046
01/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 26/O 30/U 01/B
4BQ 035/052 029/053 030/059 029/056 028/041 022/046 024/043
02/B 10/U 00/U 00/B 14/O 20/U 01/B
BHK 030/051 025/051 026/059 026/057 026/043 021/046 022/046
00/N 10/U 00/U 00/B 14/O 30/U 01/B
SHR 032/051 022/054 029/059 026/054 024/041 019/048 020/043
06/R 20/U 00/U 00/B 25/O 20/U 12/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog will be possible this evening and overnight,
primarily across low lying and sheltered areas west of
highway 183.
- A breezy/windy Tuesday is in store for the local area as
southerly winds will gust to around 35 MPH during the
afternoon hours.
- A chance (30-60%) for showers and an isolated thunderstorm or
two will spread across the local area Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning. Most locations will receive 0.10" of
precipitation or less.
- Above normal temperatures anticipated through the period with
high temperatures fluctuating from the lower 50s to mid 60s
through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024
A mostly sunny and modestly cooler afternoon is being observed
across the local area. Winds have remained mainly east
northeasterly behind a weak backdoor cold front, which pushed
southwest across the area early this morning.
For tonight, expect clear skies and generally steady/light
southeasterly winds to prevail across the local area, which
could result in some patchy fog formation across our western
areas. While there are definitely some strong signals for fog
west of the local area overnight in both the SREF probs and HRRR
VSBY data, locally, areas west of roughly Highway 183 could be
clipped with some dense fog development overnight, but the
thinking is it should be patchy and mainly limited to low lying
and sheltered areas as surface winds will likely remain steady
around 5-7 mph most of the night.
For Tuesday, expect the surface pressure gradient to strengthen
throughout the day ahead of a west coast trough that will be
rapidly crossing the intermountain west. This should result in a
breezy/windy afternoon, with southerly wind gusts of 30-35 mph
likely across much of the area. By the early evening hours,
expect the trough and associated cold front to the north to
begin spreading some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms
across the local area. Given the very weak and elevated
instability values, most areas will likely not receive any
thunder with just some scattered light precip (<0.10")
anticipated.
Skies should then eventually clear behind this system late in
the day Wednesday, with sunny and dry conditions then returning
for the end of the week and start of the upcoming weekend.
Continue to expect the next system to begin to spread its
influence across the local area as early as Sunday, with
slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances returning, but the
main upper low across the southwest (that will have the better
precip chances/totals) may actually not lift northeast across
the plains until late Monday or Tuesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Southeasterly winds and increasing dewpoints overnight will
bring the potential for patchy dense fog to the area. Models
have continued to indicate the best chances for fog will be west
of the TAF sites. Winds will also be just strong enough
overnight to mix the atmosphere and reduce the potential for fog
formation. No mention of fog was included in the TAF due to
these reasons. Low stratus is also possible overnight at the
TAF sites (mainly KEAR), however given models westerly placement
of fog/stratus, have not included reduced ceilings in the TAF.
Southeasterly winds will quickly increase after sunrise on
Tuesday, with gusts continuing to increase throughout the
morning. Sustained winds around 20kts and gusts around 30kts are
expected throughout the afternoon hours.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
716 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense Fog Advisory is in effect late tonight into the mid
morning hours on Tuesday. This will be for areas along/north
of Highway 40 and along/west of Highway 25.
- Southerly gusts 30-40 mph possible Tuesday evening will give
way to a wind shift to the northwest by Wednesday morning
with the same intensity before diminishing.
- Chance for showers Tuesday evening as a system moves through
the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2024
Overall Dense Fog Advisory area looks on track; confidence does
remain the highest across eastern Colorado due to a more
saturated boundary layer to the snowpack and melting. I did
start to message the potential for freezing fog across that area
as well as temperatures are already at or below the freezing
mark. Any freezing fog impacts would be relegated to raised
surfaces and bridges and overpasses for travelers purposes.
Other change I made was to increase winds overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. This was made by a fairly good consensus
with the RAP, NAM and GFS on 7-10mb three hourly pressure rises
behind the front to help with mixing down some of the winds. To
further increase my confidence the 12Z HREF mean wind had a
large area of 30-45 mph wind gusts shown as well overnight.
I again did lower rain chances across the east some for tomorrow
afternoon as similar to last night the better mid level moisture
on the RAP was kept further east event the more moist NAM was
doing the same.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 149 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2024
Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny area-wide as a
strong surface ridge builds south-southwest from the northern
Plains. There is a front ahead of the ridge that now stretches from
the CO/NE/KS border in the north, then eastward into central Kansas.
Behind the front, winds are east-northeast with some gusts up to 20
mph. Ahead of the front, winds are light/variable. Current
temperature spread is wide with a range from around 40 into 60s. The
reason for the big difference remains with the area-snowpack over
Colorado from the recent storm.
The main weather concerns in the short term will focus on the fog
potential tonight, and gusty winds along/behind a front that is
expected to traverse the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
For the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, dry and sunny
conditions will give way to a clear night initially, but with the
ridge axis expected to persist over the area, combined with an
easterly/southeasterly surface flow and abundant surface moisture
from recent rain/snow, expected fog to form late tonight and persist
into Tuesday morning. Short term guidance is mixed as to the
coverage but thinking best chance for impactful fog will be from
northeast Colorado into the Highway 25 area. These locales will be
closest to the ridge axis where fog expected. Surface winds may
impact some areas in terms of fog/low clouds, but the best chances
will be west. Can`t rule out western portions of our northeast
Colorado counties to see fog form, but should be in the east where
snowfall has already melted. As a result, have issued a Dense Fog
Advisory from 06z-15z Tuesday for all areas along/north Highway 40
and along/west of Highway 25. Fog for most, but temps west could
drop below freezing overnight(snowpack areas), creating the
potential for freezing fog to impact raised surfaces like bridges.
Going into Tuesday, expecting fog to dissipate by mid morning ahead
of a front set to impact the CWA by the afternoon hours in tandem
with a passing mid level shortwave. Southerly gradient ahead of the
front will allow for gusts in the 30-40 mph range, with its passage
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning seeing a shift to
northwesterly at the same intensity early on then diminish through
the morning hours. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) all show a
low (20%) potential for showers to form ahead of the front Tuesday
night along/east of Highway 83 before exiting. Also wrap-around
moisture in the northwest could bring a few spot showers as well.
overall, bulk of expected will be north and west of the area.
The passage of the system will give way to high pressure providing a
nice day/evening area-wide Wed/Wed night.
For temps, highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s
in Colorado due to the persistent snowpack. East of there, upper 50s
to mid 60s expected. A better range on Wednesday is expected as more
of the snowpack is expected to have melted, bring a range from the
upper 40s west into the mid and upper 50s east.
Overnight lows will also be snowpack dependent in the west. A range
tonight in the mid 20s to lower 40s in Colorado gives way to mid 30s
to lower 40s east. Tuesday night, mainly 30s area-wide will give way
to mid 20s to lower 30s Wednesday night. Wind chill reading in the
20s and 30s tonight/Tuesday night gives way to 20s for Wednesday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2024
For the extended period, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF carry a
broad upper ridge eastward through the Plains, allowing for SW flow
aloft to persist from late Thursday onward. This will be followed by
a digging shortwave into the Rockies that will eventually sink south
towards the 4-Corners region as a cutoff low. Guidance is mixed as
to the timing and placement of this system late in the weekend into
next week, but it does lift towards the Tri State area as the upper
ridge shifts east. There is a 20-40% chance for light to moderate
rain showers over the CWA, with best chances along/east of Highway
25 based on the current model consensus track.
At the surface, a prolonged trough over eastern Colorado resides in
place Thursday into Friday, shifting slow east into the CWA,
developing a front/trough from it. Guidance has this meandering over
the area into the weekend ahead of the approaching upper system,
allowing for potential enhancement of low level moisture for better
rain chances east. Going into Monday on the north side of this
boundary, northeast winds could gust toward the 25-30 mph range
especially along/west of Highway 27. This may aid in upslope/
orographic conditions to allow for persistent shower activity.
Colder air on the north side of this system may allow for western
portions of our northeast Colorado counties to a mix/change over to
some snow showers. For now, low confidence on any potential
accumulation due to uncertainty of low track this far out.
For temps, highs in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe will
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in Colorado, with areas in
Kansas and Nebraska seeing 60s. For Sunday into next Monday it will
be colder with a range from the mid and upper 40s west into the
lower and mid 50s east each day.
Overnight lows will range mainly from the mid 20s west into the mid
30s east for most nights with Friday night being the exception. A
range from mainly in the 30s from west to east is expected. Some
locales across Graham, Gove and Sheridan counties may only see
around 40F. Wind chill readings most nights will range in the 20s w/
Friday night seeing readings mainly in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2024
**615pm MT Update: Am seeing a better signal for LLWS each
terminal overnight as LLJ develops so have added in LLWS for
each terminal.**
Main story for this TAF period will be fog and stratus
potential. Winds will remain from the ESE for the majority of
the night as moisture advection occurs; this wind direction is
also climatologically favored for fog/stratus. Do think that fog
will occur but the question is how long lasting will it be as
winds are forecast around 08-10 knots through the night.
For KGLD, its a bit of a trickier TAF forecast as confidence is
moderate to high (75%) in fog developing along/near the KS/CO
state line which is also favored to be dense. Confidence in it
impacting the terminal at this time is lower (20%) so have opted
to go with VCFG for now. The reason for lesser confidence at the
terminal is that persistent melting across Colorado should help
yield higher boundary layer moisture than here. Any fog/stratus
is forecast to erode by 15Z Tuesday but then breezy winds will
develop.If the fog does make it a bit further east than what
guidance and current thinking suggests then many hours of dense
fog would be possible.
For KMCK, fog confidence is similar to KGLD but for different
reasons. Stronger moisture advection should occur further east
but the question will be how long will visibilities remain down
for. I opted to go with a tempo for my current highest
confidence of IFR or potentially less flight reduction
categories. Similar to KGLD winds are forecast to become breezy
when the fog/stratus erodes.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening
to 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-
028.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Tuesday
for COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening
to 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
714 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off the coast before sunrise Tuesday. Dry
and cool high pressure will build across the Carolinas from the
north Tuesday and Wednesday, moving offshore Wednesday night.
Another cold front will bring a chance of rain Thursday into
Thursday night, with drier and cooler weather expected next
weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
&&
.UPDATE...
The one item of concern tonight is possible fog and low cloud
ceilings. Shallow moisture in place has nothing to dislodge it
until the front arrives a few hours after midnight and dry air
scours down to the surface. Given mainly clear skies and light
pre-frontal winds, short-lived fog appears possible especially
across the Pee Dee region of South Carolina. Odds are somewhat
lesser across the Cape Fear region but cannot be ruled out
anywhere given dewpoints in the 60s and still 6-7 hours to go
until the front arrives.
GFS-LAMP and HRRR visibility guidance was used to hone in on the
increased fog risk across the Pee Dee region. Any other changes
to the forecast were minor.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clouds continue to scour out as dry air filters into the area
from the southwest, per latest WV imagery. Cold front currently
across western NC will approach the CWA this evening, entering
our western counties around midnight and moving offshore
overnight. Ahead of the front, wet ground, light winds, and
clear skies may allow for a few hours of patchy fog after sunset
before lower dewpoints and increased winds move in behind the
front. Cool air behind the front will allow for temps to drop to
near 50F along and west of I-95, and mid to upper 50s near the
coast. Sunny and dry Tuesday as mid level ridge builds over the
Southeast and surface high pressure moves east across the Great
Lakes, encompassing most of the eastern US by Tuesday evening.
CAA will keep high temps on Tuesday around 70-73F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly quiet forecast period with cool Canadian high pressure
influencing the area. Looks like a shortwave embedded within the
building ridge does try to bring in some good upper forcing
Tuesday night, but the atmospheric column remains much too dry
to do anything with it (precipitable water values linger in the
0.25-0.50" range). Tuesday night looks chilly, with lows
bottoming out in the lower 40s inland, mid 40s at the coast. For
once, these temperatures are actually *below* seasonal norms
for the first time in quite awhile. Despite a light
northeasterly breeze, still think some of the cold spots in
parts of Bladen and Pender Counties get some good radiational
cooling going. Some of those spots may dip near or just above
the freezing mark.
The unseasonably cool trends continue, with highs Wednesday
only expected to hit the lower 60s, some 4-7 degrees below what
we would normally expect for mid-November.
Things start to change late Wednesday, with more high clouds
building in from the west. Another cold front is on the way, and
precipitable water values kick up to near 0.75-1.00" late
Wednesday night. Rain chances should hold off, for now at least.
Lows in the low-to-mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night, rain chances really tick up from
west to east as the cold front moves through. Still don`t have
much moisture in the column relatively speaking, but the forcing
looks more stout with this setup than we`ve seen in recent
memory. Biggest trouble here is the timing. GFS ensembles like a
faster progression of the front, while ECMWF ensembles are a
bit slower. These fronts tend to slow, so leaning more towards
the ECMWF solution at this time. Highs Thursday and lows
Thursday night should be similar to the day/night before, if not
a tad cooler in the highs due to extra cloud cover.
Front should be offshore by Friday morning, creating a quiet
forecast through the remainder of the period. High pressure from
the Plains gradually moves eastward towards the mid-Atlantic,
and then dropping into the Southeast by late in the weekend.
Plenty of sunshine on the way each day, with temperatures
moderating each day. Highs in the mid 60s on Friday gradually
become the low-to-mid 70s by Monday. Lows in the lower 40s
eventually become the lower 50s by the end of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shallow moisture remains near the surface across the eastern
Carolinas and won`t get scoured out until a cold front arrives
late tonight. This unfortunately means there is some potential
for ceiling/visibility restrictions in fog and low stratus to
develop. The potential appears to be low at KLBT, KILM, and
KMYR, but impacts have a moderate potential to develop at KCRE
and KFLO after 03z this evening and may last up until the
drier/breezier air arrives with the front around 08-09z Tuesday
morning. Situations like this aren`t easy for model guidance or
meteorologists, so later TAF amendments are likely.
After 09z there is high potential for VFR conditions to develop
across the area with dry and breezy north winds 10-12 knots
during the day.
Extended Outlook...There is a low potential for MVFR cloud
ceilings Thursday night as a wave of low pressure moves across
the Carolinas.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Cold front expected to move across the local
coastal waters before or around dawn on Tuesday, with relatively
light westerly winds overnight turning north-northeasterly by
morning. Sustained wind speeds will be around 15 kts during the
day Tuesday, with gusts around 20 kts. Seas linger in the 3-4 ft
range, with 5 footers possible in the outer coastal waters
beginning Tuesday afternoon, combination of persistent 3-4 ft SE
swell and building NNE wind wave Tuesday.
Tuesday Night through Saturday...Northeasterly winds at 15-20
kts continue through Wednesday evening, with 3-4 ft seas at the
coast, and 5-6 ft seas 20 nm offshore. May need a Small Craft
Advisory from Tuesday night through most of Wednesday. Gradient
winds loosen up a bit Wednesday night into Thursday, and the
direction gradually shifts to an onshore component ahead of
another cold front. Seas at this point dropping down to 3-4 ft
across all zones. Front moves through Thursday night, creating
variable winds at first, before settling on northwesterly winds
at 10-15 kts Friday and Saturday. Gradient tightens up for a bit
temporarily on Friday, yielding 20 kt gusts. Seas remain at 3-4
ft Friday, and then slowly drop to 1-2 ft at the coast and 2-3
ft offshore by Saturday.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...IGB/VAO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
552 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog tonight into Tuesday morning, dense across southwest
Nebraska
- Precipitation chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday
- Gusty winds Tuesday, strongest across the northern Sandhills
into north central Nebraska
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024
Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a shortwave
moving eastward into Montana and Wyoming, undercutting the
pronounced ridge extending northwestward into Yukon and the
Northwest Territories. Another upper-level shortwave was moving
northwest out of the Great Lakes into eastern Canada with another
weak shortwave on its tail tracking southeast out of western Ontario
into the Upper Midwest. An elongated upper-level trough of low
pressure was digging southward along the coast of British Columbia
and the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure was noted in
vicinity of Lake Superior with a backdoor cold front extending
southwest into northern Iowa, westward into southern South Dakota,
knocking on northern Nebraska`s door. High pressure was nudging
south behind the previously mentioned front. Some mid to high-level
clouds are moving into the Panhandle in advance of the
aforementioned shortwave across Wyoming and Montana. As of 3 AM
CT, temperatures ranged from 32 degrees at Ogallala to 40
degrees at O`Neill.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024
The main concern in the short term will be fog
potential, gusty winds and precipitation chances. For tonight,
confidence has increased in the potential to see fog form tonight
and linger into early Tuesday for southwest Nebraska.
Tonight low level moisture increases with dew points into the low
40s and humidity near 100 percent. Confidence continues to increase
in seeing areas of fog to widespread fog starting tonight through
early Tuesday. With the increased confidence, decided to issue a
headline for dense fog as the potential is increasing for
visibilities to drop below 1/2 mile which is supported by HREF
probabilities of 50 to 60 percent, thus leading to the higher
confidence in dense fog overnight. The area of concern for dense fog
development will be across western and southwest Nebraska,
potentially spreading as far east as the HWY 83 corridor, including
North Platte, this could also potentially impact I-80 near North
Platte and west. Patchy fog may be possible late evening, however
the dense fog is expected to hold off until 6z or later, forecast
soundings indicate fog should diminish by mid-morning. The Dense Fog
Advisory will run from 6z to 15z Tuesday for Chase, Hayes, Lincoln,
Keith and Perkins counties, will have to monitor later forecast as
there could be a need to expand northward, but at this time
confidence was not as high farther north for dense fog, however
patchy fog will be possible into the Sandhills overnight.
Winds will begin to increase Tuesday in advance of the sfc low.
Probabilistic models continue a high probability of winds of 40
mph or more, especially for areas of the northern Sandhills
into north central Nebraska. Gusty winds on Tuesday will be out
of the southeast, ushering in low level moisture and warmer
temperatures ahead of the advancing trof. Do expect a brief lull
in the gusty winds late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the
trof passes then the trailing cold front advances, winds will
then switch to the northwest and become gusty. Do not expect
winds to be as strong on Wednesday, but will still see wind gust
of 30 to 35 mph.
As for precipitation chances, expect most of the precipitation to
generally stay along and east of HWY 83. Any precipitation that
does develop will be ahead of the passing front, with lesser
confidence in seeing any precipitation to the west. The area is
outlooked for general thunder by SPC, however the risk for
thunderstorms is low, but a rumble of thunder can`t be ruled
out, with the greatest potential along and east of HWY 183.
Severe weather is not expected. &&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024
A upper level ridge will develop Thursday and continue to
be in place over the central CONUS into the weekend. Thursday will
be the warmest day as WAA will bring temperatures above normal with
highs in the 60s, which is around 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. A cold
front will move through late Saturday/Sunday and temperatures will
be slightly cooler with highs in the low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024
A few aviation weather hazards are in store for western and
north central Nebraska terminals late tonight into tomorrow.
Generally clear skies will give way to areas of fog and a low
stratus deck, resulting in widespread IFR and potentially LIFR
conditions by sunrise. Meanwhile, southeast near surface winds
will become rather gusty, but low level wind shear conditions
will also arise. Winds transition to southerly in the afternoon
as the low ceilings gradually lift.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 9
AM CST /8 AM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ057>059-069-070.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Snively