Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/11/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
548 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain exits the region this afternoon leaving increasing wind
gusts of 30 to 35 mph and near normal temperatures for
tomorrow afternoon with highs in the 40s.
- Near to above normal temperatures are forecast this week
(40s/50s). Rain chances increase Wednesday (40-60% chance for
a wetting rain 0.10"). More rain possible next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Rest of Today - Tomorrow: Rain Exits The Region, Cool on Monday
10.15z RAP 500mb heights show a closed upper-level low located over
the local area moving eastbound this afternoon. As a result, rain
will continue exit east of the Mississippi River with the stronger
forcing. However, some light showers may persist into the afternoon
with abundant low-level saturation in the wake of the low which will
also be responsible for keeping much of the region overcast towards
the evening hours. As we head through the overnight, an upstream
trough across Central Canada will swing north of the region pushing
a front through the local area. As it passes, noting some of the
CAMs wanting to paint some sprinkles (maybe some flurries?), across
portions of north-central WI during the pre-dawn hours. Generally
speaking though, model soundings in the 12.15z RAP/HRRR have a
fairly shallow saturated layer. So while there is some frontogenesis
present, getting more vigorous precipitation would appear unlikely
considering the time of day. Otherwise, a tightening surface
pressure gradient can be noted across deterministic guidance as high
pressure is situated to our west on Monday. Consequently, expecting
winds to increase for the morning and afternoon hours with the
10.12z HREF having very high (over 80% chance) probabilities for
wind gusts over 30 mph north of I-90 and moderate (40-80% chance)
probabilities south of I-90. Additionally, north to northwesterly
flow will aid in advecting some cooler air into the area. As a
result, Monday will be relatively chilly compared to prior
conditions with high temperatures in the 40s for the entire local
area. However, important to note that these temperatures are right
around normal for this time of year with the average high at La
Crosse being 49 degrees and at Rochester being 44 degrees. |
Near to above normal temperatures are forecast this week
40s/50s). Rain chances increase Wednesday (40-60% chance for a
wetting rain 0.10"):
Surface high pressure will build in for Tuesday morning, thus
will need to assess the potential for fog. A look at forecast
relative humidity in the low levels and there appears to be decent
drying and surface dewpoints depressions of around 2 to 4
degrees, but there still may be some patchy fog. Will continue
to assess with each shift. Low temperatures Tuesday morning
should drop into the 20s at most locations with highs in the 40s
to lower 50s Tuesday afternoon. The ridging is short-lived as a
trough of low pressure tracks east through the Rockies into the
Plains. Rain chances increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday
with the trough and associated cold front. The track of the
surface low is farther north into Ontario Canada, thus the more
organized rainfall appears to be tracking north of the local
area. 10.00Z LREF probabilities continue to be 40 to 60% for
0.10" or more with the higher probabilities toward Rochester and
MSP.
Ridging returns for Thursday and Friday with continued seasonably
warm temperatures with highs mostly in the 50s. Beyond Friday, there
are small rain chances with the next trough over the West Coast
closing off over the Dakotas and lifting into northern Minnesota and
Ontario Canada this weekend. At this time, the wetting rainfall
probabilities are still low with 10 to 30% for 0.10" or more of
precipitation. The present temperature forecast remains
seasonably warm mostly in the 50s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Showers have exited the region this evening with a dry stretch
expected throughout the TAF period. Ceilings will remain overnight
as low stratus across Minnesota continues to move southeastward
along a cold front, although they should begin to drop to MVFR
overnight, generally to 2-3kft. There is some potential for KRST to
drop below 2kft given some observations in central Minnesota
indicating 1-2kft ceilings. However, chances of dropping to IFR
overnight at either site are < 30%. Ceilings will then clear and
north to northwest winds will pick up Monday behind the cold
front. Gusts around 25KT are expected through much of the day.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor/Zapotocny
AVIATION...Falkinham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
525 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Localized fog and reduced visibility late tonight and Monday
morning; possible impacts to morning commute.
- Weak disturbances bring rain/snow showers to mainly western
areas tonight, and more widespread showers Tuesday.
- Periods of increased winds over the western foothills through
the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave moving from central ID
into south central MT this evening. Web cams show light snow at
Cooke City and the mountains around Bozeman Pass are now obscured.
There will be a period of light snow for our western mountains
this evening and the forecast looks good...though have raised pops
a bit. Have also extended isolated showers across the lower
elevations with the wave`s passage tonight. Soundings show
moistening and decently steep lapse rates above 700mb. Clearly
any precip east of the mountains will be minimal if measurable at
all. Surface analysis shows backdoor front having pushed through
Billings and winds along the foothills are becoming lighter. There
is an area of low cloud in northeast MT advecting toward our
forecast area. HRRR continues to suggest fog over parts of our
central and east, and throughout the Musselshell Valley (per the
developing easterly winds)...so fully expect a combination of fog
and low stratus as the wave clears later tonight and early Monday.
Morning commutes could be impacted by reduced visibility so
something to think about. Have adjusted fog coverage accordingly.
Downslope gradients begin to materialize tomorrow morning.
JKL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The rest of today through Tuesday...
A shortwave moving through this afternoon into tonight will bring
a 25-50% chance of showers over the west, with light snow
expected over the mountains and higher foothills and light rain
over lower elevations. Currently, the forecast is for 1-3 inches
of snow over the mountains and generally a less than 10% chance of
greater than 0.1" of precipitation over lower elevations.
Into Monday, high pressure will build over the region, keeping
conditions mostly dry and highs above normal. Winds are expected
to increase over the western foothills Monday afternoon as flow
amplifies ahead of the next approaching system. Currently near
Livingston, there is a 50% chance of winds greater than 50 mph and
a 20% chance of winds greater than 60 mph. Otherwise, gusts over
the west will generally be in the 25-45 mph range.
The next weather system arrives Tuesday morning with a cold front,
and brings a better chance for more widespread precipitation.
Currently beginning Tuesday morning, there is a 20-50% chance of
rain over lower elevations west and south of Miles City, although
accumulations are still generally expected to be less than 0.1".
For the mountains, there is a 40% chance over the Bighorns and a
60% chance over the Beartooth/Absarokas of at least 3 inches of
snow through Tuesday night. Behind the cold front, conditions are
expected to remain breezy over the region, with gusts around 20
to 40 mph common.
High temperatures Monday will be in the 50s to low 60s, decreasing
to upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday. Archer
Tuesday night through Sunday...
Tuesday night will still be breezy over the western foothills
with gusts to 30-35 mph. Furthermore, winds will strengthen in
the Livingston and Beartooth Foothills as the sea-level pressure
gradient increases between surface high pressure over northwest WY
and lowering pressure over central MT. There is a 60% chance of
wind gusts over 50 mph at Livingston after midnight Tuesday night.
Otherwise, Tuesday night should be dry for much of the area as
subsidence on the western side of a 500 mb shortwave trough moves
over our area.
As dry and warmer conditions return Wednesday, winds will be
elevated along the western foothills through the day and night. At
this time, the Livingston to Nye area has a high chance of seeing
wind gusts over 50 mph and a moderate to high chance of seeing
wind gusts over 58 mph, with the time of strongest winds likely to
be Wednesday evening. On Thursday, the winds will gradually back
off through the day. As these winds back off, the chance of
precipitation returns to the mountains (overall low chance). By
the weekend, ensembles are in good agreement in another 500 mb trough
moving through the region. The extent of impacts remains
uncertain, but cooler temperatures with an increased chance of
precipitation is in the forecast for now. Arends/RMS
&&
.AVIATION...
Light snow showers will persist across the Beartooth/Absarokas
until around midnight. A small chance of rain showers are possible
for KLVM and areas across the plains overnight. There is also a
moderate chance of fog for KBIL, KSHR and KMLS between 10-15Z. SW
winds at KLVM will gradually increase throughout the day with
gusts up to 40 mph likely. TS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/061 040/051 028/054 036/058 031/048 030/043 025/047
20/B 04/W 00/U 00/U 12/W 33/W 00/B
LVM 033/060 033/047 025/050 033/052 027/046 024/040 020/043
20/N 26/W 00/N 21/N 14/W 63/J 12/J
HDN 030/062 033/050 025/055 032/059 027/050 027/043 022/049
20/U 05/W 10/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 11/B
MLS 031/059 031/053 028/054 032/058 028/053 028/042 022/047
20/U 01/E 00/U 00/B 01/B 23/W 10/U
4BQ 032/060 033/053 029/054 033/059 029/053 028/042 024/048
20/U 02/W 10/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/U
BHK 026/051 030/051 026/052 029/058 027/053 026/043 021/047
21/N 01/N 10/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/U
SHR 029/067 032/052 023/055 030/058 026/051 024/043 020/050
10/U 06/W 20/U 00/U 01/B 24/W 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CST Monday for MNZ012-020-021.
Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Monday for MNZ037.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
Monday for LSZ121-148.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM CST
Monday for LSZ140>147-150.
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM CST Monday for LSZ140>147-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Wolfe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal high temperatures (50s and 60s) anticipated for
the next week with seasonably warm lows mostly in the 30s.
- There is a 20-50% chance for showers late Tuesday into
Wednesday along with an outside shot of a weak thunderstorm or
two. Rainfall totals are expected to be light, generally less
than 0.10" for most.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Low level stratus across the area this morning has cleared off
and temperatures have climbed into the upper 50s and lower 60s
under sunny skies this afternoon. Expect these mostly clear
skies to persist through the overnight hours, which combined
with light winds, should allow temperatures drop off rapidly
into the 30s overnight...although widespread freezing
temperatures are not anticipated as dew points will also be in
the 30s. While not officially in the forecast, would not be
surprised to see some very patchy fog development towards
daybreak Monday, as the HRRR is hinting at a few pockets of
dense fog overnight and there is not expected to be much of a
T/Td spread.
For Monday, another overall nice day is expected across the
region, although the northeastern half of the area will be a bit
cooler due to a backdoor cold front sliding into the area from
the northeast. This front should then lift north on Tuesday,
allowing for another afternoon with high temperatures mostly in
the lower 60s, ahead of the next upper level low pressure system
which will be rapidly crossing the intermountain west on
Tuesday. While there appears to be a little more moisture with
this system than thought 24 hours ago, most of the ensemble
members are indicating 0.10"-0.20" at best with this system as
it rapidly crosses the local area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Looking at model soundings, there is also a very short window of
elevated instability to tap Tuesday evening which could result
in a clap of thunder or two, but currently the forecast remains
thunder-free. That said, SPC does have the local area in general
Thunder for 12Z Tue-12Z Wed, so it is possible that future
forecasts may need to include the mention of a weak thunderstorm
or two over this time period.
Otherwise, clearing skies and a slightly cooler airmass will
lead to a couple of cool mornings Thursday and Friday, when a
fair chunk of the local area may fall just below freezing...
albeit still a few degrees above normal for this time of year.
High temperatures should also be above normal to end the week as
another transitory ridge of high pressure will be sliding
across the area ahead of the next system that is forecast to
impact the local area late next weekend. At this time, this
appears to be another warm system with some potentially
beneficial rainfall, with a much wider spread in the ensemble
members when it comes to precip totals. Still plenty of time to
hammer out precip chances for late next weekend, but overall,
the active and warm weather of late looks to continue into the
foreseeable future.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR expected through the period. Clear skies and lgt and vrbl
winds will prevail tonight. A cold front will switch winds to
the north at 6-10kt around or shortly after dawn, which may also
bring in some FEW to SCT stratus around 1K ft. NBM probs for
stratus coverage to trigger MVFR CIGs is only about 10-15
percent. Wind will turn to E/ENE late in the period.
Confidence: High
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
708 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Calmer weather pattern is forecast for tonight into much of
next week. There is a chance for showers along/east of
Highway 83 Tuesday night.
- Fog potential Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
- A front traversing the region on Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday morning, could bring southerly gusts in the 25-35
mph range initially before shifting northwest overnight into
Wednesday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024
Overall forecast for tonight looks to be on track. The biggest
change to the forecast I made was to add in patchy fog for the
majority of the area starting Monday evening and lasting through
the night. Have seen a consistent signal for this occur from the
RAP, HRRR and Conshort. The main questions still will be will
the ESE wind be to strong for fog to last for long durations of
time as it is currently forecasted around 10 mph sustained and
will the snow pack area have any fog. Overall, the setup for
fog/stratus is certainly there as we will be advecting in mid
to upper 40 dewpoints into the area along with a
climatologically favored easterly wind. Upcoming shifts will
need to monitor if this deserves more of a patchy wording in the
forecast or if this will be more of a transient event with
stratus dominating and the wind keeping the fog from settling
near the surface.
The other change that was made was to lower the pops across the
east down to 15-20% chance on Tuesday, but even that may be to
high. Newest guidance has been trending the the highest mid
level moisture further and further east which has lowered my
confidence in showers occurring.
I also did increase the winds especially across the east on
Tuesday as well. NAM forecast soundings at Hill City Tuesday
afternoon show 40 knots at the top of the mixing level which is
852mb and the GFS (which is typically stronger) shows 45 knots
at the same time period but with a slightly higher top of the
mixing level (815mb). I opted to go with the NAM at this time
due to concerns of lingering cloud cover impacting mixing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024
Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny with west-
northwest winds prevailing around 5-15 mph. Temperatures are ranging
widely in the 40s where snowpack remains in Colorado. Elsewhere 60s
are present.
The main weather concern for the short term period will be around
the amount of snowpack that melts each day/night and the impact it
will have on area temperatures. The conditions could persist into
the extended period(from Wednesday onward).
For the remainder of the afternoon into tonight, looking for sunny
conditions to transition to clear skies overnight. From the latest
visible satellite, the winter storm snowfall coverage is present and
expansive, especially in Kit Carson county. there has been some
melting occurring, but minimal in terms of losing coverage. This has
given a wide impact in temperatures across the region, with a 20-25
degree difference from west to east. Temps should drop tonight under
clear skies, with some differences as continuing the light west
downslope wind and the snowpack. Coldest areas will be in western
portions of our Colorado counties.
Going into Monday, guidance carries a broad upper ridge across the
Plains region providing a nice dry day area-wide. There will be a
500 mb trough that sets up in the western Rockies by Tuesday
morning, swinging across the central Plains late in the day into the
evening hours. An elongated surface trough/front moves east ahead of
the upper system during the day. The boundary will create a tight
southerly gradient in the 25-35 mph range before shifting northwest
keeping the tight gradient into the 12z Wednesday timeframe. 850 mb
temps ahead of the boundary Tuesday will reach the +12c to +16c
range providing above normal temps east of the Colorado border. In
Colorado, this warmth will aid in snowpack melting despite near to
below normal temps. There is a 20-30% chance for showers Tuesday
night along the surface front in areas along/east of Highway 83,
where best instability will occur.
For temps, the area snowpack over eastern Colorado will play a large
role in daytime highs and overnight lows during the short term
period. On Monday, highs will range from the mid 40s to around 50F
in Colorado, with upper 50s to lower 60s east of there. Going into
Tuesday, slightly warmer with upper 40s to mid 50s in Colorado and
upper 50s to mid 60s east of there.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 20s west into the mid 30s
east tonight, for Monday night 20s in Colorado and mainly 30s east
of there w/ warmest areas along/east of Highway 25. By Tuesday
night, slightly colder with mid 20s to around 30F in Colorado, and
mainly lower to mid 30s east of there. A few spots in Graham county
could see the 40F mark. Wind chill readings for the overnight
periods will range in the teens and 20s in Colorado and 20s/30s east
of there.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024
The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show fair consistency over the area
with an exiting progressive mid level trough being replaced by a
building 500 mb ridge coming off the Rockies. Flow aloft will shift
from northwest to southwest by Friday morning, persisting into next
weekend. There is a weak shortwave late in the weekend that will
move south out of the north central Rockies down the western side of
the CWA. Guidance does differ to the potential placement of a 15-20%
chance for showers, but look to form ahead of it over the southern
CWA. With some inconsistency here will leave in the mention of.
At the surface, with the system exiting Wednesday morning, still
looking for northerly gusty flow(up to 30 mph) to impact the area
through the day. This will be followed by several shortwaves working
east off the Rockies bringing a swing in winds as they pass. No
potential precipitation issues other than previously mention.
For temps, highs midweek will range in the upper 40s west through
the upper 50s east. Colorado counties still could be impacted by
remnant snowpack on the ground. These numbers may be adjusted during
the week if conditions improve. For Thursday and Friday, mid 50s to
lower 60s expected. Going into next weekend, Saturday will have a
range from the mid 50s west into the mid 60s east, but going into
Sunday, cooler with upper 40s to lower 50s west into the mid 50s
east, especially east of Highway 25.
Overnight lows for most nights will have a range from the mid and
upper 20s west into the lower to mid 30s east. Friday night will be
the warmest with a wide range from the upper 20s through the lower
40s. Wind chill readings will have most locales in the 20s each
night. Some teens possible for readings in portions of Colorado,
while some locales east of Highway 83 may only see readings in the
30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 401 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024
VFR conditions and winds under 09 knots are forecasted for the
majority of this period. Winds will slowly become more variable
overnight as a surface high skirts the area before becoming more
southeasterly Monday afternoon along with moisture advection.
RAP and HRRR both suggest quickly developing stratus and/or fog
developing later in this period around 23Z Monday especially
for KGLD. Will introduce a SCT030 for now but if guidance
continues showing this they may add in some flight category
restrictions with the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
620 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold front Monday afternoon passes through dry, but ushers in
a brief shot of colder air for Monday night and Tuesday.
- Return to near or slightly above normal temperatures
Wednesday into Thursday with another chance for showers
Wednesday night.
- Even warmer air begins to arrive as we approach next weekend
with highs possibly back into the 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Stout piece of energy was moving ENE on the southern portion of the
upper low passing across Wisconsin. Pockets of clearing ahead of
this feature, combined with 500 mb temps -20 C or colder are
allowing for steep lapse rates and a band of showers and even a
few lightning strikes across portions of Lake Michigan. HRRR had
the idea on development, but is struggling to catch up with
faster development. A few very light showers were
developing/clipping far NW parts of the area but will quickly
shift northeast. Have lowered pops quite a bit with a few hours
of token slgt chc pops until the best forcing departs into
central Lower MI. Winds have begun to mix down across Illinois
with somewhat gustier winds arriving into at least W/NW areas
into the evening before inversion sets up and reduced gust
potential.
Next potent system was already working quickly east along the
International border. This will intensify a bit more, moving into
the UP of MI by Monday morning with a stronger cold front sweeping
south during the afternoon. The most noticeable features will be the
arrival of much colder air (albeit brief) and increasing W to NW
winds which eventually shift more N and NE Monday night. 850 mb
temps will drop below zero, allowing for an increase in lake induced
instability and maybe a small window for a stray shower in the far NW
late afternoon before the flow shifts. No mention in the forecast
for the time being as it would be brief and probably no more than a
trace setup. Tuesday appears to be the coldest day of the upcoming
period with forecasted highs maybe a touch too warm given strength
of the cold push. Lowered highs a bit, but even so an overall
seasonably cold day (averages in the low 50s).
The coldest air will quickly shift away, but a lingering weak E to
SE flow will result in a slow warmup Tue night into early Wed as the
next trough shifts east across the Plains. Models continue to
waffle on not only potential phasing with weaker southern stream
energy, but also timing of slug of deeper moisture that streams
rapidly north ahead of the trough. While at least sct showers should
accompany the front mainly Wednesday night, just can`t go with
likely pops at this stage with how much models are varying.
Despite the strength of the trough, little in the way of CAA occurs
with upper level ridging quickly building in. This will bring a
return to dry conditions late Thu night into at least Saturday and
quite possibly the entire weekend before a weak, most likely
moisture starved front arrives just outside the current period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Minor CAA overnight will likely support periods of MVFR ceilings
(fuel-alternate possible) at KSBN late tonight into Mon morning.
Confidence in timing and ceiling heights is not high though with
a fair amount of variability in both model guidance and upstream
obs. Will split the difference for now with high-end MVFR. VFR
expected to persist at KFWA though some brief MVFR is possible
early Mon morning. Wind gusts will diminish overnight but pick
up again and veer NW Monday afternoon as another (dry) cold
front passes.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...AGD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
922 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and perhaps a storm will affect the region through the
pre dawn hours of Monday.
- Normal to above normal temperatures will continue this week
with the exception of Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
Not many wholesale changes made to the grids as they`ve been
largely on track. However, did load in the latest surface obs and
adjusted those trends. Also, touched up Pop grids to reflect
current radar trends. Lastly, updated evening text and radio
products to reflect the changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 425 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered northeast
of Bermuda and the axis of this ridge extended north to the east
of the eastern seaboard while an upper level low was centered in
the western Great Lake region with an upper level trough axis
south to the mid MS Valley to the vicinity of the Ozarks to
northeast TX. Further west, an upper level ridge extended from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley northwest to the Four Corners region.
Meanwhile a shortwave trough further upstream was moving over the
Manitoba/Saskatchewan area to the Dakotas. At the surface, an area
of low pressure was centered over the Great Lakes with a cold
front trailing into the mid MS Valley to eastern TX. A ridge of
high pressure was centered in the vicinity of the Four Corners
region and extended into portions of the Plains. Further upstream
another sfc low in advance of the shortwave trough/upper low well
upstream over Canada was centered near the Ontario and Manitoba
border with a cold front railing into ND and MT. Convection was
occurring across the oH Valley region in advance of the first cold
front.
This evening and tonight, the upper level low currently over the
western Great Lakes is expected to move across portions of the
Great Lakes to Ontario while the associates shortwave trough axis
moves east to the Northeast to central to southern Appalachians.
At the same time, the shortwave trough upstream is expected to
near Lake Superior by dawn on Monday while the ridging form the
Southern Plains/TX to the Rockies at present builds toward the
Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure should trek into
Quebec while the trailing cold front is expected to sweep across
the central and eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast and into the
Appalachians to northwestern Gulf of Mexico by dawn on Monday.
Sfc high pressure is progged to nose into the Lower OH Valley
behind this front.
Monday and Monday night, the shortwave trough/upper low should
move from Lake Superior across portions of Ontario and Quebec to
the St Lawrence Valley to Northeast and off the mid Atlantic
coast. Another sfc cold front should precede this with the
boundary sagging to near the OH River on Monday evening and then
south of eastern KY through the end of the period. Sfc high
pressure over the Great Lakes should build south into the
Commonwealth in advance of an upper level ridge, the axis of which
should near the MS Valley by late Monday night. Locally over the
OH Valley following a period of neutral height tendencies on
Monday, 500 mb heights are progged to rise for Monday night.
The first approaching cold front and shortwave trough axis should
interact with a rather moist airmass over the OH Valley and
eastern KY characterized by PW on the order of 1.2 to 1.4 inches
and produced some convection with mainly just showers. Limited
instability ahead of the boundary may be sufficient for a few
rumbles of thunder. Chances of convection will initially be
minimal late this afternoon and early this evening for areas
nearer to the VA and WV borders, with the best chances for these
areas late in the evening/after dark to pick up measurable
rainfall. Chances for convection will diminish from northwest to
southeast through the evening/overnight as the front works across
eastern KY. Recent HRRR runs suggest that some areas south of the
Mtn Parkway in between where some of the heavier showers pass may
receive less than a tenth of an inch though on average an
additional tenth to a third of an inch is anticipated.
Drier weather will prevail with high pressure dominating for
Monday. The front on Monday night will have only very limited
moisture with the only notable change will be wind direction to
the north and northeast and drier air being ushered in the
region.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
By Tuesday morning a negatively tilted trough resides over the
Intermountain West, while a ridge of high pressure expands from east
of The Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic. This high amplitude ridge has
its axis extending as far north as the provinces of northern
Manitoba, and western Ontario.
Across eastern Kentucky, expect dry conditions Tuesday, and most of
the day Wednesday, with cool temperatures in the mid 50s under light
northeasterly winds. Mostly clear conditions Tuesday night will aid
in temperatures dropping into the 30s, with valleys in the low 30s.
Wednesday, the previously mentioned trough in the west begins its
progression into the Central Plains. This approaching system
combined with the ridge exiting to the east, will veer winds out of
the south. This will help drive temperatures into the mid to upper
60s in the afternoon. Moisture is also expected to increase through
the day, as the approaching system draws on moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. Currently dew points are forecast to be highest across
western and central Kentucky before moderating into the 40s over
eastern Kentucky heading into the evening. As nightfall approaches,
so does a cold front, bringing showers to the area, close to
midnight. Lows should generally be in the mid 40s. Thursday, off and
on showers continue through the afternoon, tapering off heading into
the evening. Highs will be cooler, near 60 in most spots. Lows will
be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Just over half of the ensemble
members in the WPC Cluster Analysis favor a wetter solution with
this system. The probability of the area seeing a quarter inch or
more ranges from 44% to 61%. However ensemble consistency has been
back and forth with this solution. Forecaster confidence is low to
moderate due to this variability.
Friday and Saturday, a ridge of high pressure builds back in from
the west, leading to dry conditions each of those days. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the mid 60s by Saturday. Models are
hinting at another upper low and cold front bringing shower chances
across eastern Kentucky by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
With this TAF issuance, terminals are fluctuating between VFR and
MVFR as a cold front continues to inch toward the area. Over the
next few hours, those showers will continue to plague all TAF
sites before dissipating toward 12Z. Also, IFR/MVFR CIGS are
forecast to move into the area after 03Z. These CIGS will remain
categorical IFR/MVFR through much of the overnight as the front
moves through the region but gradual improvement is expected
toward early morning Monday as the front exits and terminals
slowly improve to VFR. Winds will start from the southwest but
will gradually slacken to light and variable overnight.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
517 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions are largely expected through the forecast
period with only light rain possible in the east Tuesday
night into Wednesday.
- Strong winds ahead of and behind a frontal passages Tuesday
night will lead to gusts around 40 mph.
- Temperatures are generally expected to remain above normal
with afternoon highs likely to reach the 50s and 60s each day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 403 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Afternoon satellite analysis depicts rapidly clearing skies after
morning stratus dissipated. Heavy snowcover remains expansive over
eastern Colorado but is safely displaced to the southwest of the
local area. Streaming cirrus clouds across the peaks of Wyoming help
illustrate general zonal flow across much of the central and western
CONUS as low-amplitude ridging centers over northern Mexico and the
next disturbance approaches the Pacific Northwest.
For tonight...broad high pressure will begin to nose in from the
north with surface height rises as a result. This should allow winds
to gradually wane. Previously mentioned mid to upper-level clouds
will stream across South Dakota and may intrude across far northern
Nebraska. Otherwise, partly to mostly clear skies are expected
across the area. Various high-res guidance including HREF/SREF
ensemble outputs paints some modest visibility issues in the form of
light fog. Meanwhile the HRRR is much more aggressive with more
expansive sub 1SM visibilities. For now, will omit any mention of
fog given weak low HREF/SREF probabilities and pass along to
incoming shift to monitor trends. Low temperatures will range from
near 30 degF in the west to the upper 30s in the east.
Veterans Day...dry conditions will again prevail across the area.
Aforementioned high pressure will continue to settle south with a
backdoor cool front moving into north central Nebraska. This should
hold back temperatures in this area. Have trended temperatures
towards the cooler MET guidance as a result which has most locations
holding in the middle 40s. Meanwhile, further south and west, strong
southerly flow should prevail and bolster temperatures into the 50s
to near 60 degF. Winds should remain modest across the area though a
few locations across the Sandhills could see gusts nearing 20 to 25
mph during the afternoon. Southerly flow will likely increase Monday
evening as high pressure settles east and a surface low begins to
take shape across southwest Canada. This will prompt an influx of
richer low-level moisture, directed right through western Nebraska.
As a result, a fairly narrow swath of milder low temperatures are
forecast Monday night with lows only falling to around 40 degF near
a North Platte to Cody line but falling off in either direction to
the low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Tuesday and Wednesday...The only potential for precipitation in the
period. Latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index advertises anomalous
sustained winds as well as gusts with values nearing 0.6-0.7. Little
to no Shift of Tails values indicates little to no outliers within
the ensemble suite that would suggest more noteworthy speeds. WAA
will ramp up as lee-troughing forms along the high plains. Strong
h85 flow will peak around the late morning hours for areas east of
Highway 83. With the influx of moisture, the threat for lingering
low-stratus and possibly fog will need monitored. Latest forecast
for winds closely aligns with NBM probabilities where it`s near 100%
probability of seeing gusts exceed 22 knots (25 mph) and ranging
from 50-90% for gusts to exceed 34 knots (39 mph). The latter of
these probabilities are highest across the our northern zones with a
continuation of these up through much of central Nebraska. High
temperatures Tuesday will again reach the 50s for most locations.
Later in the day, a frontal boundary extending south from a surface
low tracking along the International Border. Winds will flip from
south to northwest quickly as the front passes. NAM guidance
suggests slight positive anomalies with respect to PWATs with values
around 0.50". Frontal forcing will be adequate to lead to at least
isolated to scattered showers across our eastern zones. It`s worth
mentioning that the NBM fails to resolve PoPs in our western zones
where the NAM supported by some SREF guidance suggests precipitation
forming off the Black Hills and Laramie Range moving into our
western zones. For now, PoPs are only confined to our eastern zones
and particularly east of Highway 83 but later forecasts may require
including PoPs in our west as well. QPF appears to remain light.
Even with slightly above climatological PWATs, the progressive
nature of the front as well invading dry air should prevent longer
duration precipitation event. As a result, QPF will likely be
limited to a quarter of an inch or less for all locations. While the
SPC maintains a general thunder outlook for our eastern zones, poor
overlap of lapse rates and forcing should preclude much if any
convective nature to the activity and so not expecting any QPF
"surprises". With flipped winds to the northwest on Wednesday,
slightly cooler temperatures are expected but values should manage
to hold onto the 50s still. Gusts will also be weaker, given a
weaker signal in EFI and deterministic solutions. Even so, gusts may
approach 25 to 30 mph.
Thursday and beyond...shortwave ridging arrives by early Thursday
with strong mid-level height rises across much of the central
Plains. The next disturbance will approach the West Coast sometime
late in the week with broadening southwesterly flow in the lead up to
this. All this to say that temperatures should remain above normal
through the forecast period. Precipitation potential will need
monitored but for now, the forecast remains dry for the time frame.
Ensemble guidance hold most precipitation potential outside the
local area and little evidence exists to suggest this changing in a
significant way.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
VFR will continue through much of the night for western and
north central Nebraska terminals as winds remain generally
light. A cool front will likely allow a low stratus deck to form
over north central Nebraska (VTN) toward dawn. Ceilings may drop
to IFR before recovering midday. Meanwhile, east/northeast winds
transition to southeast during the afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
858 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Evening runs of the HRRR and 00Z HREF guidance has trended away
from a more widespread fog event tonight. Will therefore trend the
fog forecast down to just patchy across far NE OK into NW/WC AR.
No other changes needed. Surface high pressure has settled over
the region this evening, with light winds and clear skies.
Overnight lows should be near the lower quartile of the model
spread, and the going forecast and MOS have this handled well.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Sfc high pressure settles over the region tonight with ideal
radiational cooling expected. Soils remain wet and the pattern
would favor fog development, however the coverage and density is
much more uncertain. Forecast will include a widespread mention
and allow later shifts to monitor trends.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Mild temps continue Monday and Tuesday with southerly winds
gradually increasing ahead of the next storm system which will
pass across the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. Scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will likely pass through
the local region late Tues night through Wed. with higher chances
generally across NE OK. Overall rainfall amounts are expected to
be light.
Slightly cooler temps and dry weather for late week as the
trailing sfc high settles over the area. The next storm system
continues to appear rather strong however details in timing and
eventual moisture return ahead of this system vary amongst
guidance. Expect precip chances to increase at some point over the
weekend and possibly extend into early next week. The degree of
moisture return and associated destabilization will continue to be
monitored and may support some thunderstorms with heavier rains as
this system passes.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Mostly clear skies and light/variable winds will prevail through
much of the TAF period. Patchy, shallow fog is expected to
develop, mainly across far northeastern OK and portions of NW AR,
after midnight tonight. Forecast confidence remains low whether
fog will impact any of the AR terminals early Monday morning. Did
include a TEMPO group for FSM, FYV, XNA, and ROG for intermittent
reduced vsbys around sunrise (from 11-15z) Monday morning, though
confidence of fog coverage and timing are low at this time.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 69 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 47 72 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 45 72 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 39 69 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 70 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 43 67 45 65 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 44 70 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 42 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
F10 45 70 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 47 74 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67