Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/08/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for all of northeast
Colorado through early Saturday morning. Additional snow
accumulations of up to 7 to 14 inches are possible.
- East of the Colorado border, moderate to heavy rainfall is
expected with accumulations between 1 and 2 inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2024
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies remain mainly
cloudy as a surface ridge continues to be draped over a good portion
of the area. Winds are currently north-northeasterly around 5-10 mph
and temperatures as of 100 PM MST range from the 30s west into the
40s and 50s east where cloud cover has thinned some from this
morning.
The main weather concerns for the short term period are going to
focus on the continued winter weather in Colorado, along with area-
wide rainfall that could pose some flooding concerns.
For the remainder of the afternoon hours into tonight, regional
radar still active showing a decent area of precip funneling
northward through the area. With the and upper low from 850-500mb
sitting over the Desert SW, and a ridge nosing northwest into the
Plains, combined with an easterly component to the surface flow, low
and mid level moisture is persisting through the area, especially in
northeast Colorado. With SPC Mesoanalysis showing 850 0c line
meandering over the Colorado border, there is a fairly abrupt
rain/snow line for the CWA. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest)
are showing some reprieve in areal coverage of precip this evening,
except in Colorado. This is expected to pick up in earnest towards
12z Friday as the aforementioned upper low lifts northeast towards
the west central Plains. Some model difference (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) as to
the track of the upper system, but closer than yesterday at this
time. Guidance has this system moving slowly over the western CWA.
At the surface, a low/trough will be to the E/SE of this, track
northward in tandem with the upper system, finally exiting north of
the CWA by Saturday morning. Patchy fog may persist this afternoon
in areas where snowpack exists.
Given this, expecting chances for precip to increase overnight into
Friday, when ample low level moisture will allow for up to an 80-90%
chance for area-wide precip. The track of the upper low combined
with the surface low passage to our SE, will allow for cooler temps
aided by the persistent cloud cover. Friday`s highs will be warm
enough for rain to fall for areas east of Highway 27. Along Highway
27 to the Colorado border, the 850mb 0c line may meander enough to
bring a light rain/snow mix in the morning before changing to all
rain. Colorado however will remain cold enough to allow mainly snow
to persist. With the QPF and low snow ratios less then 10:1,
northeast Colorado will see a continuation of moderate to heavy snow
and thus additional accumulation. Intensity may taper some overnight
ahead of the approaching system from the SW, but will increase as
the day progresses. The end result, after consulting offices to our
west, have opted to message to extend the current Winter Storm
Warning through 12z Saturday for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne
counties, and cancel the Watch from earlier. The warned area will
see up to an additional 7-14 inches of snow. Highest additional
totals expected to occur in western portions of these counties,
especially from Flagler and south. These amounts taper sharply to
the east. There could be localized blowing snow as northerly flow
may gust towards the 20-30 mph range. This may be tempered some due
to the wet nature of the snow.
East of this, the other concern will be excessive rainfall potential
for areas along/east of a line from McCook, Nebraska southwest to
the Goodland, Kansas area. Current guidance has total QPF potential
to range from 1-2" w/ highest numbers south of I-70 in Kansas. WPC
has a marginal area for excessive rainfall in place as a result.
Precipitation does taper off from south to north Friday night into
Saturday morning, with wrap-around moisture giving SW Nebraska
additional showers before exiting.
For temps, highs on Friday will range from the mid and upper 30s to
around 40F for areas along/west of Highway 27. East of there lower
to mid 40s. Going into Saturday, a wide range is expected with upper
30s to lower 40s in Colorado, and mid 40s to lower 50s east of the
Colorado border. Those locales from Highway 27 and west into
Colorado that have received snowfall in the past 24 hours will see
forecasted highs augmented by a few degrees as a result, especially
in Colorado.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s
along/west of Highway 27, to the mid and upper 30s east. Going into
Friday night, mainly 30s are expected, with extreme western portions
of Kit Carson, Yuma and Cheyenne counties in Colorado only see upper
20s. Wind chill readings for the overnight periods will range in the
upper teens to lower 20s west, into upper 20s to lower 30s east.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2024
Sun-Tue: A transition to a far less active /benign/ pattern is
anticipated late this weekend as the stalled upper level low
over the 4-Corners/Rockies becomes progressive.. ejecting
northeast across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Expect
near average temperatures and dry conditions Sun-Tue.
Wed-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that active weather will
return in this period.. as a progressive upper trough moving
ashore the Pacific Coast (early next week) traverses the
central CONUS (mid-week).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 907 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024
For KGLD, the terminal will see persistent lifr/vlifr conditions
through the forecast period. ceilings will remain around ovc002,
while visibility will waver some as rain/snow and even some fog
affects the area. 1/4sm to 1/2sm range will be in place for much
of the forecast. winds, mainly northeast around 5-10kts but
could go light/variable at times. amendments will probably be
needed as conditions fluctuate.
For KMCK, the terminal will see a mix of vfr/mvfr conditions
(ceilings around bkn015-025) through about 12z friday, before
dropping to an mvfr/ifr mix (ceilings around ovc010 and
visibility 3-4sm in light rain). winds mainly light/variable but
from 17z friday onward, northeast around 10kts is expected.
amendments will probably be needed as conditions fluctuate.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ090>092.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
911 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog along and north of I-70. Fog may become dense
along water ways
- Above normal temperatures to continue through the forecast period
- Rain and a few thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday, with
additional rain chances mid-week next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
- Cloudy and Colder Overnight
Surface analysis this evening shows strong high pressure centered
over IA and western IL. This high pressure system had a ridge axis
that was extending east across Central Indiana to Central OH and the
eastern Great Lakes. GOES16 shows clear skies across Indiana and
the region. Light north winds were in place with dew points in the
lower 40s.
Overnight, clear skies are expected to persist as the strong surface
high slowly builds eastward. Forecast soundings and time heights
show a dry column through the night. Thus mostly clear skies with
light winds will be expected overnight. HRRR shows dew point
depressions falling to 1F-2F in recent runs. Thus patchy fog will be
expected overnight, particularly near river valleys, with lows in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 316 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
A decaying strato-cu layer still remains over the northern half of
central Indiana, but by this evening, skies should be mostly clear
with surface ridging building. Southern portions of central Indiana
may remain beneath patchy clouds as the cloud cover continued to
develop along and north of a stalled boundary.
With surface ridging building over the region, and skies clearing
efficient diurnal cooling is expected. This will lead to a
pronounced nocturnal inversion and decoupling of the PBL with winds
nearing calm along and north of I-70. This combination of conditions
will also increase fog development especially along river valleys. A
few areas in the Crawfordsville to Lafayette regions may see patchy
frost along with fog, but freezing fog shouldn`t be an issue with
surface temperatures remaining just above freezing and ground temps
well above freezing.
Tomorrow, much of the same weather is expected in central Indiana,
just with slightly warmer temperatures as central Indiana`s wind
flow becomes largely out of the N/NW, including marginal warm air
advection. Any remaining stratus/fog from overnight subsidence
inversions will likely mix-out by the late morning, with mostly
clear skies in the afternoon. This increased sunshine may lead to
slightly warmer than forecasted temperatures, but given climatology
of early November and consistent N/NW flow, temperatures have been
capped in the mid 60s as of this issuance.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 316 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Long term focus is on another round of soaking rainfall over the
weekend, with additional rain chances mid to late next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal throughout the period, with
potential for some drop back toward seasonal norms toward the end of
next work week.
A large upper low and associated frontal system will lift into the
Great Lakes this weekend, pulling a warm front, narrow warm sector,
and then cold front through the area late Saturday into Sunday.
Widespread soaking rainfall is expected, with most likely amounts
per ensemble means currently in the one half to one inch range, with
isolated higher amounts possible - primarily southeast of the
Interstate 69 corridor. The maximum precipitation chances will come
late Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, primarily Saturday night
into early Sunday as dynamics are at their strongest and some very
modest instability may advect into the area within the
aforementioned narrow warm sector.
Another break of dry weather is expected for the start of the work
week, as another area of broad surface high pressure gradually
traverses the region.
Another frontal system is likely to impact the area mid to late next
work week, though model differences remain substantial at this time
and limit forecast probabilities to the chance category. However,
the intrusion of colder air behind this second system looks to be
more substantial than the weekend system, and this may bring
temperatures back closer to seasonal norms than what has been the
standard as of late.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 547 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Impacts:
- Patchy fog potential between 09-13Z tomorrow. Greatest chances of
occurrence are at LAF/BMG and HUF.
- Otherwise VFR expected.
Discussion:
Diurnal CU across the area had dissipated as high pressure over the
plains slowly builds a ridge axis across Central Indiana. This will
allow for clear skies and light winds through much of the period.
Models suggest dew point depression to fall between 1F-5F toward
daybreak. This combined with the light wind and clear skies may
result in some patchy IFR Fog, particularly near river valleys. Thus
have used a tempo group to account for this.
After morning fog burns off, VFR Conditions will return as high
pressure remains in control of our weather. Forecast soundings and
time heights show a dry column with subsidence as the strong surface
high builds across the area.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
543 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers move in Friday afternoon and last through
Saturday. Warmer temperatures will keep precipitation as all
rain.
- Dry conditions return on Sunday lasting through Thursday of
next week with mild temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Tonight, a deep, closed upper low will move east into central
New Mexico. Gulf moisture will get drawn northward and PWATs
will increase to over 1 inch as far north as central Kansas.
up to a 30 percent chance of light rain near and south of I80
overnight. The 12Z CAMs and recent runs of the HRRR and 3km NAM
show scattered light rain showers lifting north from western
Kansas into southwest Nebraska.
Friday...The upper low will track from central New Mexico to
near the western Oklahoma panhandle by late afternoon. Models
show widespread showers lifting north from Kansas and eastern
Colorado during the morning, with chances north to near I80.
POPs quickly increase during the afternoon, with likely to
categorical POPs south of Highway 2 by late afternoon. The
orientation of the mid level flow will cause showers to track to
the northwest. While thunder will be possible across Kansas and
far southern portions of south central Nebraska, no thunder is
expected further north across western Nebraska.
A surface low will track from the Oklahoma panhandle into west
central Kansas Friday night. Widespread rain will lift north
across the forecast area Friday night with categorical POPs.
Rainfall amounts Friday night near a half inch to locally three
quarters of an inch. Given a well develop deformation zone from
strong forcing and anomalous moisture, heavy QPF is likely.
Saturday, the upper low is forecast to track into central
Nebraska. POPs across the area will remain likely to
categorical, though rainfall amounts will be less, generally a
tenth to a quarter inch, as shown by the deterministic GFS and
ECMWF 12-hour total. Rain will linger across the northeastern
zones Saturday evening as the upper low lifts into northern
Iowa overnight. GFS, ECMWF and CMC emsembles show the
probability of storm total QPF of an inch or more is highest for
areas near and south of an Ogallala through Broken Bow line.
For November, this system has the potential to bring impressive
rainfall amounts.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Sunday through Tuesday...zonal flow aloft will transition to
weak ridging as an upper trough moves into the Rockies by
Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected. Temperatures to return to
above normal values in the wake of this system with highs
climbing to around 60 each day.
Global models remain in good agreement that an open shortwave
trough will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday. While a
few light rain showers are possible, the current forecast
remains dry. Temperatures cool into the low 50s behind the cold
front. Upper ridging builds in on Thursday with highs returning
to near 60.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Expect cloudy skies at the KLBF terminal over the next 24 hours.
Ceilings will fall from around 8000 FT AGL to 2000-3000 FT AGL
Friday afternoon. Showers will be possible by late afternoon
with visibilities down to around 5SM. For the KVTN terminal,
expect mainly clear skies over the next 24 hours.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
350 PM PST Thu Nov 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and quieter weather is forecast through Saturday afternoon
as high pressure moves over the area. A weak weather system
arrives over the weekend for a chance of light rain and mountain
snow. Unsettled weather will continue through next week with
periods of mountain snow and lowland rain. Snow over mountain
passes may be moderate to heavy at times with winter travel
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Thursday night through Saturday: Weather will be quiet through
Saturday afternoon as an upper level ridge continues to remain over
the Pacific Northwest. The upper level ridge will begin to flatten
with the upper level flow gradually shifting to the southwest
tonight through Friday morning. Under this flow, temperatures
between 850-750mb will warm and strengthen the night time inversions
tonight and Friday night. This will continue to support shallow fog
development across the northern valleys and into the Spokane metro
area. With several pile and prescribed burns over the Idaho
Panhandle, the HRRR smoke is showing a thicker layer of haze to move
into far eastern Washington, particularly over the Washington
Palouse. These stronger inversions will result in hazy skies across
eastern Washington and north Idaho in the evening through the
morning hours tonight through Friday morning.
Saturday night through Sunday: Active weather will return this
weekend with the first of a series of weather systems moving through
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. This first system looks
to be the least impactful compared to the ones later in the week
with snow levels forecasted to remain above 4000 feet Saturday
night. Precipitation at the Cascades looks to begin as rain Saturday
evening and then transition to a rain/snow mix at Washington Pass
and rain with some snow mixed in at Stevens Pass. Westerly flow
aloft will result in a rain shadow in the lee of the Cascades and
into the western Columbia Basin with a 50 percent chance for these
areas to see 0.01 inches. Precipitation will pick back up across far
eastern Washington and north Idaho with a 50 to 60 percent chance
for 0.10 inches for place such as Pullman, Spokane, Colville.
Across the Idaho Panhandle, there is a 70 to 80 percent chance for
over 0.10 inches. This system will be mostly beneficial with little
to no impacts currently expected. /vmt
Sunday night through Thursday: Next week will feature an active
weather pattern with a pair of weak Atmospheric Rivers with the
passage of a low pressure trough. Storm #1 will move in Sunday night
and linger into Tuesday. There is more uncertainty on the timing of
Storm #2, but model consensus generally has this one moving in 12-36
hours later around late Tuesday or as late as Wednesday afternoon-
evening. Both of these storms will bring mountain snow and valley
rain. Snow will have significant impacts for travel over some over
our mountain passes, namely: Stevens Pass and Washington Pass, and
to a lesser extent Sherman Pass, Loup Loup Pass, Blewett Pass, and
Lookout Pass.
Storm #1: Snow levels will start out on the higher side at 5,000+
feet as the moisture plume and warm sector of the storm moves in
Sunday night into Monday morning. This will mainly result in
accumulating snow at our highest mountain passes that includes
Washington Pass and Sherman Pass. Cold front passage will be during
the day on Monday with snow levels dropping down to pass level at
Stevens Pass and Lookout Pass. Snow levels will drop as the weak
atmospheric river gets shunted off to the east. However, the upper
level trough will shift in over the region with lapse rates
steepening resulting in a better potential for more in the way of
convective bursts of snow and higher snow ratios, particularly
over the Cascade crest where periods of moderate to heavy snow
will be possible over Stevens Pass and Washington Pass. Medium
range models are also showing a shortwave disturbance that will
push across on the back edge of the longwave trough Monday night
into Tuesday. This will be the period with increased dynamics and
instability occurring in the dendritic growth zone may lead snow
covered roads with winter travel conditions for travel over the
Cascade crest, as well as, in the Central Panhandle Mountains over
Lookout Pass. Below are the probabilities off of the National
Blend of Models (NBM) for at least 2", 4", 8" and 12" of snow for
the mountain passes Monday through Tuesday:
At least 2 inches: Washington Pass=100%, Stevens Pass=100%, Loup
Loup Pass=10%, Blewett Pass=15%, Sherman Pass=65%, Lookout Pass=95%.
At least 4 inches: Washington Pass=100%, Stevens Pass=70%, Loup Loup
Pass=0%, Blewett Pass=5%, Sherman Pass=40%, Lookout Pass=45%.
At least 8 inches: Washington Pass=100%, Stevens Pass=50%, Loup Loup
Pass=0%, Blewett Pass=0%, Sherman Pass=10%, Lookout Pass=20%.
At least 12 inches: Washington Pass=85%, Stevens Pass=30%, Loup Loup
Pass=0%, Blewett Pass=0%, Sherman Pass=0%, Lookout Pass=8%.
Monday looks to be a breezy day with the passage of the cold front.
Expect sustained winds of up to between 20-25 mph with gusts up to
around 35 mph across the exposed areas of the basin.
Storm #2: Snow levels will start out lower between 3500-4000 feet as
the next weak atmospheric river moves in around Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will result in snow accumulating at all of our
mountain passes with the potential for heavy snow at Stevens Pass
and Washington Pass. The rest of our mountain passes will likely see
light snow as this system initially moves in. Warmer temperatures
will raise snow levels into Wednesday afternoon. Expect another
round of winter travel conditions for motorists traveling over the
Cascade crest along Highway 2 and highway 20. Below are the
probabilities off of the National Blend of Models (NBM) for at
least 2", 4", 8" and 12" of snow for the mountain passes Tuesday
night through Thursday:
At least 2 inches: Washington Pass=100%, Stevens Pass=100%, Loup
Loup Pass=65%, Blewett Pass=50%, Sherman Pass=100%, Lookout Pass=65%.
At least 4 inches: Washington Pass=100%, Stevens Pass=60%, Loup Loup
Pass=40%, Blewett Pass=40%, Sherman Pass=80%, Lookout Pass=45%.
At least 8 inches: Washington Pass=100%, Stevens Pass=35%, Loup Loup
Pass=5%, Blewett Pass=5%, Sherman Pass=45%, Lookout Pass=20%.
At least 12 inches: Washington Pass=85%, Stevens Pass=20%, Loup Loup
Pass=0%, Blewett Pass=0%, Sherman Pass=10%, Lookout Pass=8%. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will bring light winds with passing high
clouds through the period. Continued light winds will support
shallow fog development in the NE Washington and north Idaho
mountain valleys and near water bodies, such as KSFF, KCOE, KSZT
early Friday morning. Several prescribed burns over North Idaho and
limited daytime mixing will promote hazy skies today, but confidence
in haze reducing visibility below 6 miles is low.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence is high for VFR conditions during the daytime hours
across all TAF sites. Confidence wanes by early Friday morning,
especially for KGEG/KSFF where some model soundings are showing
shallow fog developing. In addition to the low confidence fog
forecast, the HRRR continues to show degradation at KPUW from haze
across the Washington Palouse this evening through early Friday
morning. However, the RRFS-Smoke model keeps most of the haze out
of KPUW. Included a 4SM VIS at KPUW from 03-12Z from haze, but
this carries a low confidence.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 51 32 51 37 49 / 0 0 0 30 50 30
Coeur d`Alene 29 52 34 52 38 48 / 0 0 0 20 60 40
Pullman 30 53 33 52 37 50 / 0 0 0 10 50 40
Lewiston 34 55 38 57 43 57 / 0 0 0 10 40 20
Colville 20 49 25 47 27 44 / 0 0 0 40 60 40
Sandpoint 27 48 30 49 35 44 / 0 0 0 40 70 60
Kellogg 29 55 38 53 40 46 / 0 0 0 20 70 60
Moses Lake 26 50 30 48 30 51 / 0 0 0 20 30 10
Wenatchee 34 51 38 49 37 49 / 0 0 0 20 20 20
Omak 30 52 34 50 33 49 / 0 0 0 20 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
457 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 451 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
- Heavy rainfall and flooding possible tonight through Friday.
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into
early Friday morning.
- Cooler and dry this weekend then warmer.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
A nearly stationary upper low near the Arizona/New Mexico border is
still expected to move slowly eastward tonight into Friday. The low
is then forecast to lift north and northeast across the Panhandles
and far western Kansas Friday afternoon into Saturday. Deep
isentropic ascent in advance of this system, is resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms have developed across northern
Texas this morning and afternoon. Elevated instability across
western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma per RAP soundings is
around 500-750 J/kg with deep cloud layer shear over 60 kts.
Therefore, a few strong to severe will remain possible through the
afternoon and into at least evening.
Overnight, surface low pressure is expected to become better
developed across West Texas in response to the approaching low. This
will help maintain a northeast to east flow across much of Oklahoma
and western north Texas. This will also aid in advecting higher
dewpoint air northward into at least our western north Texas
counties. At this time, it appears better boundary layer moisture
will remain mainly south of our Texas counties, so any strong to
severe storms will mainly pose a risk of hail and or wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
It still appears the main story with this event will be areas of
excessive rainfall, starting Thursday evening and continuing through
at least Friday evening. Record to near-record PW values, and a
rather deep warm cloud layer will result in rather efficient
rainfall rates/amounts. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected
to be in the 2 to 4 inch range, especially across the western
half/third of Oklahoma and northern Texas. However, there is
roughly a 30-40 percent probability of rainfall amounts exceeding
5 inches, especially across parts of southwestern Oklahoma and
northern Texas. More localized amounts of 6 inches are also
possible. With any heavy rain event, still some uncertainty with
how far north and east the heaviest rain will occur. Plan to add a
few more counties to the east of the current Flood Watch.
Most of the rainfall is expected to move east of I-35 by mid evening
Friday and mainly confined to eastern Oklahoma after midnight.
Cooler and drier weather will prevail Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Overall no changes were made to the long term period. There is some
potential for a freeze by early Thursday morning of next week. If
this occurs, it should mainly impact parts of western and northern
Oklahoma.
Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
The period looks to feature mostly dry surface conditions and nil
weather impacts. Quasi-zonal flow looks to emerge across the Plains
into the early week, with a slow warming trend expected. Some
locations across western-north Texas have a medium (40-60%) chance
to see 80-degree high temperatures on Tuesday. By the midweek,
attention will turn towards the potential for the passage of another
high-amplitude upper system across the central CONUS. At this
update, some precipitation potential and arrival of a frontal
passage (cooler temperatures) are advertised. Details on this system
will come into better focus into this weekend.
Ungar
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Rain is expected to become widespread this evening and continue
through the day Friday. There will be periods of thunder, but
heavy rain, low ceilings and reduced visibility will be the main
story. All sites will see MVFR ceilings early this evening quickly
dropping to IFR and some LIFR possible overnight and lingering
through the day tomorrow. Northeast winds will continue overnight
with gusts at most sites to around 20kts. Winds will gradually
shift to the southeast during the daytime hours tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 53 63 45 62 / 80 90 70 0
Hobart OK 51 65 40 64 / 100 100 30 0
Wichita Falls TX 61 68 45 66 / 90 90 40 0
Gage OK 42 55 36 60 / 100 100 40 0
Ponca City OK 47 61 45 61 / 60 80 90 10
Durant OK 60 68 52 69 / 40 90 90 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OKZ009>012-014>018-
021>024-027-033>038-044.
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ083>089.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
453 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lull in snowfall this evening and overnight, before precip
ramps up in coverage/intensity during the day Friday, with
increased winds as well.
- Rain/snow line will move westward on the plains Friday, with a
rain/snow mix as far west as Canon City and Pueblo possible.
- Heavy snow bullseye remains across the southern mountains,
southern I-25 corridor and across the southeast plains, where
another 1-3 feet of accumulation is likely before Saturday
morning.
- Periods of moderate to heavy snow will continue across
portions of the eastern mountains and plains Friday night,
then taper off through Saturday morning.
- Winds gusting up to 30-35 mph at times across the eastern
plains Friday evening, primarily before midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2024
Upper low spinning along the NM/AZ border this afternoon, with
strong warm advection/upward motion across the area this afternoon.
Have seen waves of snow move northward through the area today,
especially over the eastern mountains and plains, with amounts over
a foot already reported around La Junta already, and suspect areas
near Trinidad and eastern Las Animas County have seen at least a
foot as well. Temps below about 6000 feet have crept up to near or
above freezing at many locations as of 2 pm mst, which has allowed
road conditions (especially main roads) to improve, with melting
limiting accumulations, especially around Colorado Springs and
Pueblo. For the remainder of the afternoon and overnight, HRRR
suggests still another few hours of snow bands to rotate northward
through the area until about 5-7 pm, then a marked decrease in
snow intensity and coverage from 7 pm into early Friday morning,
with mainly showery precip/flurries. Rain/snow line will likely
remain near it`s current location on the southeast plains, and many
roads that saw some melting today may develop some patchy icy spots
as most locations fall to at least near/slightly below freezing.
On Friday, upward motion intensifies as upper low lifts slowly e-ne
through NM. Snow will develop most areas by sunrise, with heavy snow
bands rotating northward across the region the entire day,
especially along and east of the mountains. Strength of the mid-
level warm advection will likely drive the rain/snow line westward
through the day, making snow accumulation forecasts on the plains
tricky, as temps will rise above freezing across much of the lower
Arkansas Valley and plains east of I-25 by afternoon. In general,
heaviest snow Friday will again favor the slightly higher terrain
along the Palmer Divide and the plains south of the Arkansas River,
where temps stay a couple degf colder, as well as the srn I-25
corridor and southeast mountains, where temps will likely stay near/
below freezing the entire day. Did adjust most model forecast/NBM
guidance slightly colder to get snow to fall over the plains, as
models are sometimes too quick to change snow over to rain,
with tricky area from La Junta east to Lamar/Springfield potentially
seeing heavy snow early in the morning, then heavy rain in the
afternoon. Colorado Springs metro should stay mostly snow, though a
rain/snow mix not out of the question by late afternoon, as warm air
surges west. Pueblo/Canon City likely to see a rain/snow mix in the
afternoon, limiting accums. No break for the srn mts/srn I-25
corridor, where heavy snow continues through the day. Did add the
San Luis Valley to the winter storm warning, as wrn edge of the
valley will see several more inches of snowfall, much less nrn
portions around Saguache. North winds increase on the plains as
surface low deepens over TX, with some gusts 30-40 mph on the
plains. Probably some blowing snow in spots along and east of I-
25, but rain mixing in and wet nature of snowfall may limit
visibility issues.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2024
Friday night and Saturday...Models are in good agreement in placing
the low center over the OK and TX panhandles Friday evening, then
gradually moving it north into western KS through the night. On Sat
the low pushes east into north central KS and then into NE. All
indicators point to continued rounds of moderate to at times heavy
snow across the area Friday evening, mainly before midnight, with
the focus for the heavier snowfall being the Wet Mts, southern
Sangres, Huerfano and Las Animas counties, Teller County and
northern El Paso County. The reason why the forecast calls for a
dramatic decrease in activity at midnight is that multiple models
are showing that the H7 support shuts off for heavier snow between
03z and 06z. The mentioned areas will likely see another 3-5 inches
of snow before midnight, then an additional 1-2 inches after
midnight. The rest of the eastern plains will likely see just an
inch or two, then finally on Sat as the system pulls away, another
last gasp of up to an inch across the Palmer Divide will be possible.
Another factor to note will be periods of gusty winds across
portions of the eastern plains, starting during the afternoon Fri
and lasting into the evening. As the low center pushes northward
along the eastern border, strong wraparound flow will create some
periods of wind gusts of 30-35 mph. The tricky part of the forecast
continue to be the warmer air edging in from the east, producing a
wavering rain/snow transition line that will cause headaches for
many. Some of the expected windy areas are lining up with those
warmer spots that could see primarily rain instead of snow. So while
there remains a chance of areas of wind-driven snow for the eastern
plains, do not feel confident that there needs to be any other sort
of highlight at this time. Will let the incoming shift take another
look.
As for highs on Sat, plan on temps climbing into the upper 30s to
mid 40s through the afternoon, though those areas that received
significant new snowfall will struggle to warm past the lower to mid
30s.
Sunday and Monday...The storm system ejects to the east and out of
the area, allowing for temporary ridging with a westerly flow aloft
in place for the Four Corners region. Expect dry conditions with
warming temperatures, though highs will remain below seasonal
normals. Plan on highs each day in the upper 30s to near 50F for
most areas.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Models are indicating another trough of low
pressure approaching the Rocky Mt region Tue into Wed, though models
are disagreeing on placement with some showing a more northerly path
which would mean some snow for the central mts and increased wind
for all areas, while other models hint at a more southerly track,
which would mean more widespread precipitation and cooler temps.
Stay tuned for this developing forecast. Moore
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 451 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2024
IFR, and occasionally LIFR conditions, will continue to persist
throughout the forecast period at all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS and
KPUB) due to -SN/SN, BR/FG, and low CIGs. Winds will be
synoptically influenced but generally on the light side, except
after 18Z at KCOS, when the NNW`ly winds are expected to pick up
and become gusty to around 23 kts during the afternoon hours.
-Stewey
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ062-
065>068-096-098.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ069>089-
093>095-097-099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...STEWARD