Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/06/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
628 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will continue this afternoon before exiting through the evening.
Confidence in organized convection this afternoon remains
low, but some enhanced wind gusts may still be possible over
southwest into central Wisconsin.
- Drier weather returns for the rest of the work week, with
seasonal temperatures into the weekend. Next chances for rain
return over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
TONIGHT: rain exiting, winds subsiding, cooler (but seasonable) air
moving in
Area of low pressure at the sfc was located over southwest WI early
this afternoon with a warm front front due east of it and a cold
front dropping to the south. Along the cold front convection has
fired in a very narrow ribbon of instability. RAP SBCAPES up to 250
J/kg - meager at best - but wind shear remains hefty with
long/straight hodographs in the warm sector. Setup does suggest a
few storms with a wind potential (earlier tor risk that was already
low looks even lower). This line will will lift northeast with the
low/front and could bring some rumbles of thunder to parts of
southwest-central WI. These areas are already more favored for
higher winds gusts through the afternoon, and some enhancement from
any storm is possible.
Elsewhere, the deformation region/Fgen associated rain will also be
transitioning to the northeast, and likely out of the local area by
00z. With the shift in the low positioning, parts of southeast MN
into north-central WI will get a bit more rain than previously
forecast, with amounts topping out from 1/2 to 1".
Winds will be on the decrease this evening becoming more light and
variable as weak high pressure then builds in later in the day
Wednesday. Clouds are expected to hang around tonight, helping
temper a local fog threat. Further west into southcentral/central MN
clouds might clear, and along with lighter winds, would bring a
higher threat for fog Wed morning.
WED - WEEKEND: seasonal, next chances for rain this weekend
An upper level trough in the west is forecast to dive down through
the Rockies, with low pressure developing/cutting off over the Four
Corners region late Wednesday into Thursday. In turn, upper level
ridging looks to build northward towards the local region, allowing
the surface high pressure to strengthen. With the given pattern,
drier conditions and near seasonal temperatures remain through the
end of the work week.
The upper level low is then forecast to eject northeastward from the
Four Corners, lifting across the Plains on Saturday and eventually
through the local region into Sunday. This looks to bring our next
chances for precip as rain spreads into the forecast area ahead of
the system. Although ensemble solutions seem to be coming into
better agreement, some slight differences in details around the
upper low and its associated surface features/fronts are still noted
between the GEFS and ECMWF ens. Will continue to refine timing and
amounts over the coming days as confidence increases, but general
consensus would suggest increasing rain chances into the area
Saturday, with highest chances (50-90%) peaking Saturday
evening/night. Overall, latest GEFS and ECMWF ens 24-hr QPF
probabilities suggest generally 10-30% for greater than or equal to
0.5", with the GEFS bringing higher probs (30-50%) a tad further
north over southern Wisconsin than the ECMWF.
Rain lingers into Sunday as the system continues to lift northeast,
with drier conditions following for Monday. Temperatures look to
stay consistent as highs remain in the 50s and lows in the 30s and
40s through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Still getting some reports of light rain and drizzle in the area
with IFR/MVFR conditions, although the main rain area has lifted
northeast. The forecast soundings hold on to high low level
moisture with continued MVFR/IFR conditions. Northwest winds
will be elevated into the early evening, however should decrease
Wednesday morning to under 10kts. LIFT conditions will be
possible Wednesday morning at KRST. Conditions should improve
late morning into the afternoon with MVFR conditions at KRST
and VFR conditions possibly late afternoon at KLSE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rieck/EMS
AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
738 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Precipitation is forecast to begin around sunset in East-
Central Colorado, with chances for accumulating snow and rain.
East-Central Colorado remains the favored area for snow.
- Snow accumulations of a trace to eleven inches are forecast
through tomorrow afternoon, with amounts greater than three
inches favored over East-Central Colorado. Confidence in exact
amounts is moderate. Most of the area has at least a 40%
chance of precipitation through tomorrow.
- Rain and snow chances increase again Thursday through
Saturday afternoon with another system moving out of the
southern Rockies.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
Confidence has increased in accumulating snow perhaps up to 6
inches to occur across portions of Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) and
Sherman counties. RAP 700mb FGEN has been consistent over the
past few runs of an area of locally heavier snow developing from
western Kit Carson county and through Cheyenne (KS) and into
Dundy county. This area also coincides with an area locally
heavier snow seen on the 12Z HREF mean snow and also lines up
well with higher values of the EFI and the EFI Shift of Tails;
which has been very useful in the past for picking up areas of
snow banding potential. A thought was given to expanding the
Winter Storm Warning into Cheyenne (KS) and Dundy counties as
this appears to be the best area to see 6+ inches of snowfall
but soil temperatures are a little warmer across those counties
and then the added variable of where exactly does the rain/snow
line set up further lowered my confidence so opted to go with
the Winter Weather Advisory route. Sherman county was added due
to the prolonged nature of the snowfall and the potential for
more travel impacts due to wind gusts of 30-40 mph due to
blowing snow impacting I-70.
The other change that was made was to extend the Winter Storm
Warning through 12Z Thursday after collaboration with WFO
Boulder as newer guidance continued to show accumulating
snowfall at least through that time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 148 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
The Tri-State area is expected to remain dry through the afternoon
hours, with cloud cover increasing over Eastern Colorado ahead of a
cold front that is slowly crossing into our northwest corner as of 1
PM. Beginning around 5 PM MST the fun will begin as light rain moves
into the area from the west. As temperatures cool behind the cold
front, a transition to snow will occur. The current thinking is for
the rain/snow mix to begin around 7 PM along and west of a Yuma-
Stratton-Kit Carson line. The big question is how far east will the
transition to snow go? Current forecast favors the Benkelman to
Goodland to Tribune column of counties and west to receive the best
opportunity for snow accumulations while those further east should
receive mostly rain with little to no snow. Guidance suggests the
surface low will be sticking close to the area along the Palmer
Divide and into Southeast Colorado tonight. This will provide an
opportunity for heavy snow over our Colorado counties. We have seen
a trend from overnight into the mid-day guidance of frontogenesis
boosting the development of a snowband near the Lincoln-Kit Carson-
Washington-Yuma county area. This band seems to set up initially
west-east along I-70, but there is still potential (30% chance) for
the snow band to become more northeast-southwest oriented. That
said, snow amounts still vary with low end amounts of 3" to high end
amounts around 11" for the western portions of Kit Carson County.
Other locales in our Colorado counties could see a trace to 6". With
those heavy snow concerns, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued
for Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties from 11 PM MST tonight
through 5 PM MST Thursday. It`s possible that the eastern side of
the Colorado state line could see some snow accumulations of 1-5",
with the best potential for greater than one inch snow in Sherman
and Cheyenne (KS) counties. With the rain/snow transition line,
confidence was not high enough to issue a Winter Weather Advisory at
this time. That may change as we begin to see whether a snow band
develops and how far east it extends.
The snow will begin to be a wet snow with snow to liquid rations of
6-10:1. As the cold front moves further away from the area the
ratios will become closer to our normal with 10-14:1 over East-
Central Colorado (drier snow). After midnight (12 AM MST), northerly
wind gusts of 30-40 mph could bring about some visibility reductions
due to blowing snow. We could see some decent moisture out of this
system across the Tri-State area with QPF amounts of 0.25-1" through
5 AM MST Thursday. The higher QPF amounts do favor those who
received little to no moisture with this last rain event.
Heavier snowfall will begin to taper off Wednesday afternoon,
but we could see another trace to 3" of snow for those along and
west of the Colorado border Wednesday evening through sunrise
Thursday as the surface low moves over Southern Kansas.
Temperatures tonight are expected to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s,
with the warmer temperatures mainly along and east of Highway 25.
Temperatures on Wednesday could be a bit cooler than currently
forecast depending on snow depth, but the current forecast is
for highs in the 30s to upper 40s. Overnight lows are expected
to be in the 20s to lower 30s tomorrow night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
Somewhat below confidence in forecast details through the rest of
the week centering on the track of closed low system moving into the
Central Plains. Operational models vary greatly with position of low
track, although all data supports strong closed low system impacting
the area through the weekend. Regardless of the various solutions,
potential for several rounds of beneficial rain are apparent through
Saturday, with model differences really impacting the location of
highest amounts as opposed to whether or not precipitation will
occur. Highest uncertainty with respect to beneficial amounts will
be along western edge of outlook area in eastern Colorado.
Thursday...Precipitation will likely be ongoing through the start of
the period, mainly south of Interstate 70 as persistent
isentropic upglide (warm air advection) provides a steady period
of forced ascent in the region. Looking at wetbulb zero
profiles, it looks like transition between rain and snow line
will set up in NW KS, initially between Goodland and Colby, but
pushing back into eastern Colorado through the day as warmer air
is pulled into low pressure system. Potential snow
accumulations will greatly depend on conditions leading up to
the period as temperatures hovering around/just above freezing
may allow snow to melt on contact as stability profiles do not
appear favorable for heavy precipitation. As low deepens to the
southwest, increased advection of drier air from the east
appears likely which should reduce the intensity of
precipitation down to a drizzle through the late afternoon and
overnight hours.
Friday-Saturday...Strong closed low over the southwest CONUS will
move onto the plains and advance to the northeast. As mentioned
earlier, there is considerable uncertainty in the path this system
will take which will impact precipitation amounts, but it appears
very likely that this system will impact the region to start
the weekend. Synoptic scale forcing (per Q Vector analysis) will
overspread the area leading to widespread precipitation across
the area. Impressive feed of moisture streaming into system with
mixing ratios around 7 g/km streaming into area around 700mb
combined with the intense lift will likely create widespread
beneficial precipitation across much of the area, particularly
in eastern CWA. While a thunderstorm or two is certainly
possible, think only convective related hazards will be
potentially heavy rain in some areas. Precipitation type will
remain a concern, especially in eastern Colorado where another
round of accumulating snow is possible. The NAM model is very
aggressive in wrapping cold air into the system resulting in a
large area of snow, but this seems to be on the fringe of
solutions with a much larger consensus on a less aggressive
amount of cyclogenesis and resulting intrusion of cold air. Will
need to keep a close eye on the Friday night and Saturday
morning period, but it currently looks like it will be a cold
rain for the bulk of area.
Sunday-Tuesday...Forecast confidence well below normal for the
remainder of the week as zonal/progressive pattern develops across
CONUS. Numerous differences with respect to timing and strength of
various short wave troughs keep confidence low, although with
moisture return being very limited behind Friday system, have doubts
that any widespread precipitation will occur through period.
Currently think best forecast at this point will be to stay near
model consensus/mean values.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 407 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
The start of this TAF period is fairly straight forward as VFR
conditions are currently forecast. After 06Z is when conditions
are forecast to worsen with rain and snow chances increasing
especially for KGLD. Rain is forecast initially before changing
over to snow around 12Z; there is a potential that the snow may
start before 12Z however. Precipitation looks to reach KMCK mid
morning Wednesday with rain as the main type but wouldn`t be
surprised if a few flakes work in. Either way confidence is
fairly high in MVFR to IFR conditions developing at each
terminal this TAF period with potential LIFR at KGLD if a snow
band can impact the terminal.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday to
5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for KSZ001-013.
CO...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Thursday for COZ090>092.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 AM MST
Thursday for NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1004 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
New Information added to update section
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
As sfc low lifts into eastern Upper Michigan and initial cold
front moves east of WI, seeing last vestiges of the showers exit
north-central and northeast Wisconsin. Drier air filtering in on
northwest winds will lead to mainly dry conditions rest of the
night except the far north where a few showers will hang on.
Expect decreasing winds with temperatures falling to the upper 30s
north to the mid 40s at the lakeshore.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers over the north, ending after midnight.
- The next chance of widespread rain will arrive on Saturday night and
Sunday.
- Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal each day
into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday
Mesoanalysis/Storm Potential...Observations indicate a warm front,
currently orientate northeast to southwest from Appleton to Mauston,
is lifting northward through the Fox Valley. RAP analysis shows
instability south of this warm front has climbed to around 100-250
J/kg. There is robust low-level shear (0-1km 35-40kt) over east-
central WI, just east of a surface low that is centered over
southwest WI. As this low lifts to the northeast this afternoon
there may be a brief window (2pm-6pm) for a few stronger
thunderstorms to develop south and east of a Waupaca to Green Bay to
Sturgeon Bay line. With shallow convectively induced mixing there
may be a few isolated gusts to around 40mph, however, the risk for
severe winds appears to be shunted off further south where
temperatures are slightly warmer.
Areas across central and northern WI will continue to see light
to moderate scattered rain showers through this evening. However,
with abundant cloud cover and on-going precipitation thunderstorm
potential in those regions is very low.
Tonight...Rain should come to an end from southwest to northeast
tonight as the surface low moves off to the east. Expect winds to
back around to the northwest and remaining breezy overnight with gusts
reaching 20-25 mph behind the departing low/cold front. Mostly
clouds skies should keep temperatures from bottoming out with lows
forecast to fall into the upper 30s to middle 30s.
Wednesday...Returning high pressure should bring quiet weather
Wednesday. Clouds should start to clear out during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Temperatures will be more
seasonal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s across most of the
region.
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
The latest ensemble means indicate that split flow will be the
predominate pattern over North America through early next week.
Energy lifting northeast across the Great Lakes during the upcoming
weekend will provide the next chance of widespread precipitation and
is the focus of this forecast.
Precipitation: High pressure will provide quiet autumn weather on
Thursday and Friday. Most of Saturday looks dry as well since low
pressure may not move into Wisconsin until Saturday night. A
widespread quarter to a half inch of rain is possible on Saturday
night into Sunday with a 30-50% chance of greater than a half inch
of rain over central to northeast WI. While mid-level lapse rates
will reach up to 6.5 C/km or possibly 7 C/km, not seeing much in the
way of elevated instability for a chance of storms.
Temperatures: Will be fairly typical for this time of the year with
highs ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s nearly each day.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 551 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Low pressure tracking east-northeast across the Door Peninsula
early this evening with cold front arriving from the west will
result in variable and changing flight conditions 00-03z with
intervals of showers and dry time. Greatest chance of conditions
prevailing at VFR will be at MTW in the warm sector the longest.
Eventually as the low lifts farther northeast into eastern Upper
Michigan and cold front settles across the rest of northeast
Wisconsin, winds will shift to northwest for the entire area
leading to more uniform flight conditions with IFR to low-end
MVFR CIGS. The lowest prevailing CIGS will be over north-central
WI. Showers will persist over the north after midnight, but will
end across the rest of the area.
Winds will be remain out of the northwest on Wednesday while
diminishing. Widespread MVFR CIGS to start the day will slowly
decrease during the afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........JLA
DISCUSSION.....GK/MPC
AVIATION.......JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1033 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front continues to lifts through New England this evening.
Very warm conditions are then expected into Wednesday before a
cold front brings a cooling trend the second half of the week.
Scattered showers return early next week with a broad trough of
low pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
1030 PM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to the going
temperature forecasts in the north where temperatures have
temporarily radiated down. Otherwise, no changes.
640 PM Update...Very little change to the going forecast. A
mostly clear and relatively warm evening continues to be
expected.
Previously...
A large upper level H5 ridge will continue to build along the
Eastern Seaboard tonight. This will keep precipitation limited
to northern portions of Maine. It will be mild with a well mixed
layer and readings in the in the upper 40s to mid 50s for
overnight lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad cold front will approach the region on Wednesday. Ahead
of the system very warm conditions will be situated across Maine
and New Hampshire. H8 temperatures will begin at near +10C to
near +12C. Mixing will allow for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 70s in many southern areas with cooler conditions
along the Midcoast as well as the northern mountains. Have
continued to forecast record highs with the only limitation
being the cloud cover forecast which may dampen the afternoon
highs.
A low level jet will be situated over the region on Wednesday.
Winds will be gusting 50+ kt at H8, especially over northern
areas. Have leaned towards a gusty HRRR solution with winds
strong through the afternoon.
Cold air advection from northwest to southeast Wednesday will
make for a large range of minimum temperatures. Lows will reach
the 30s across the far northwest to the 50s along the south
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: Surface high pressure will build across the area Thursday
through Saturday behind a departing cold front on Thursday morning,
bringing a return to more seasonably cool temperatures. This area of
high pressure will then move offshore on Sunday and Sunday night as
the next frontal system arrives from the west.
Impacts: Drought conditions are expected to worsen through at least
next week as very little appreciable rainfall is expected.
Forecast Details: The h5 pattern will become zonal on Thursday
behind a departing cold front and dome of high pressure over
the northern Plains. Skies will be partly cloudy with cooler but
still above average high temperatures ranging from the 40s to
upper 60s from north to south. Mainly clear skies are then
likely Thursday night with lows into the lower to middle 30s.
Temperatures aloft will continue to cool on Friday as a s/wv
trough crosses the region. This could result in some scattered
showers over the north/mountains but elsewhere it will remain
dry with highs into the 40s to near 60 from north to south.
Geopotential heights will begin to rise on Friday night with dry
conditions and lows into the 20s and 30s.
Mid-level ridging will continue to build over the area on Saturday
through Sunday with highs into the 40s and 50s and lows into the 20s
and 30s. Our next chance for widespread showers then looks to arrive
Sunday night into Monday as a frontal boundary and s/wv trough
crosses New England.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...For tonight, primarily VFR, but valley fog may
develop for LEB and HIE late. MVFR ceilings and scattered
showers are possible on Wednesday as a cold front approaches,
but this looks to be primarily for LEB and HIE. Winds gusts of
25 to 30 kt are expected during the day Wednesday. Expect LLWS
during the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning.
Long Term...VFR conditions will dominate through the period.
Winds will be predominantly out of the west at 10-20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Have extended the SCAs into Wednesday evening for
the outer waters and have also expanded in time the bays for
late tonight into Wednesday.
Long Term...SCA conditions possible on Friday into the first
half of Saturday with west-northwesterly wind gusts 25-30 kts
and seas of 3-4 ft (highest outside of the bays).
&&
.CLIMATE...
Once again, record warm temperatures remain possible across the
region, this time on Wednesday, November 6th. Here are the
record high temperatures for the date.
Portland record high of 71 set in 2020.
Augusta record high of 72 set in 2022.
Concord record high of 75 set in 2022.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cannon/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Tubbs
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
811 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Current forecast was on track for tonight with increasing chances
of showers from the southeast during the overnight period. Mainly
slight chances (15-20 percent) for the coastal areas and marine
waters and then increasing to near 30 percent by sunrise around
coastal counties and coastal waters. Little change to the warmer
than normal lows in the lower to mid 70s. For the coastal flood
advisory, appears it will last through the day on Wednesday so
extended it in time into the evening hours.
For the marine forecast, observed winds are seas are on track with
latest forecast and only minor changes for the advisory extending
in time for offshore waters on Thursday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
Afternoon surface analysis depicts gradually weakening high
pressure (1028 millibars) that was shifting southeastward towards
Bermuda. Meanwhile, a slow moving frontal boundary extends from
the Great Lakes region southward through the Missouri and lower
Mississippi Valleys. Aloft...deep ridging was positioned along
the southeastern seaboard, while troughing was digging southward
through the Rockies. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable
Water imagery indicates that our local air mass is moistening, as
PWAT values have increased to around 1.25 for locations along and
north of Interstate 10, while values have increased above 1.5
inches across north central FL. This moistening air mass has
developed widely scattered showers along the I-4 corridor across
east central FL that were moving northwestward towards the Ocala
National Forest and north central FL, where multi-layered cloud
cover was gradually thickening. Otherwise, a tight local pressure
gradient was producing breezy southeasterly winds at most
locations, with temperatures generally in the 80-85 degree range
as of 20Z. Dewpoints ranged from the mid 60s across inland
portions of southeast GA to the lower 70s for north central and
coastal northeast FL.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
Gradually increasing moisture levels and strengthening isentropic
lift overnight may develop isolated showers for locations west of
Highway 301 towards sunrise, with scattered showers possible for
locations east of U.S.-301 after midnight. Thunderstorm activity
should remain confined to the Atlantic coastal waters. Multi-
layered cloudiness will increase as this moist air mass
overspreads our region, resulting in low stratus cloud cover
expanding in coverage during the predawn hours. A southeasterly
breeze will continue overnight at coastal locations, keeping lows
in the low to mid 70s, and lows even at inland locations will
mostly remain around or above 70 degrees overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
Tropical-like moisture will be in place for most of the short term
period, advected well ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael as it moves
across Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Confidence is
growing that high pressure ridging over the region will be strong
enough to deflect Rafael away from the Florida Peninsula and into
the Central GOMEX through Thursday Night. Therefore, the primary
impacts to our area will be increased rain chances with some
isolated embedded thunderstorms for much of the area as tropical
moisture pools ahead of an approaching frontal boundary slowly
moving into the southeast US. Expecting the highest swath of
rainfall amounts to be generally across interior southeast GA and
the Suwannee River Valley through Thursday Night, where totals in
the 2-4" range are expected. Further south and east, amounts
gradually start to drop off, but still expecting a general 1-3"
for most of Northeast FL and a portion of southeast GA. The
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed most of the area in a
"marginal" risk for excessive rainfall (1/5), with a small area of
"slight" (2/5) for interior southeast GA. Any heavier embedded
downpours could certainly result in localized minor flooding,
especially for more urban/poor drainage areas.
Rainfall starts to shut off Thursday Night and into Friday Morning
as a dry slot of sorts works its way into the area east of Rafael.
However, given the proximity of the diffuse boundary over central
GA, certainly cannot rule out some isolated to scattered showers
persisting through Thursday Night, especially over southeast GA.
Temperatures remain above normal for both Wednesday and Thursday
with the influence of high pressure and southeasterly flow.
Generally low to mid 80s both days, and perhaps a degree or two
cooler for Thursday. Mild lows in the low to mid 70s Wednesday
Night, and upper 60s and low 70s Thursday Night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
Although some drier air will work into the region behind Rafael
Friday and into the Weekend, onshore winds will continue ahead of
the aforementioned boundary stalled just north of the region. In
addition, high pressure over the Great Lakes on Friday dives
southeastward into the Atlantic, which will help to reinforce this
flow regime. A few showers could linger Friday associated with the
weakening stalled diffuse boundary, mainly over interior southeast
GA before it essentially dissipates. Some shower potential could
also shift more towards the coast for the weekend and into the
start of next week as the onshore regime gets reinforced. All in
all, some uncertainty with the long term pattern as of now, though
likely will be at least a large portion of the CWA that remains
dry for most or all of the long term, especially away from the
coast. Temperatures look to remain above average during this
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
VFR clouds in the area at this time with mainly scattered clouds
near 2000-3000 ft and broken clouds about 6000-8000 ft over
northeast FL, but clearer conditions for SSI. Increasing chances
of MVFR clouds tonight. Continued the trend in the TAFs of MVFR
from south to north but moved up the timing a bit based on current
conditions and model soundings. Latest HREF shows some chance of
IFR after about 06z, especially inland areas, though HRRR is not
too aggressive with any IFR. Subsequent TAFs may need to include
some IFR for GNV and/or VQQ within a few hours of 10z-12z. Shower
activity expected to increase late tonight and through the day on
Wednesday with abundant deep layer moisture over the region on
mean layer flow from the southeast. MVFR cigs look to prevail on
Wednesday and can`t rule out IFR in any of the convection. PROB30
groups for showers are in the TAFs, and then we included some
VCTS or TSRA for the aftn/early evening hours. East to southeast
sfc winds of about 5-10 kt tonight will becoming near 10-15 kt on
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
High pressure centered off of coastal New England will gradually
weaken as it shifts southward towards Bermuda on Wednesday. This
feature will maintain strong southeasterly winds and elevated
seas through Thursday, with Small Craft Advisories remaining in
place throughout our local waters. Seas near shore will build to
6-8 feet tonight and Wednesday before diminishing back to 5-7 feet
on Wednesday night. Seas offshore will peak in the 8-10 foot
range tonight and Wednesday before diminishing back to the 7-9
foot range by Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael will strengthen into a hurricane
overnight as it impacts the Cayman Islands. Rafael will then
enter the southeastern Gulf Of Mexico by Wednesday night, with
weakening expected during weekend as this tropical cyclone slowly
approaches the northern Gulf coast. Waves of downpours and
embedded thunderstorms will spread northward across our local
waters on Wednesday, with activity continuing through early Friday
morning before diminishing in coverage and intensity by Friday
afternoon. Otherwise, weak low pressure traversing the Bahamas
this weekend could provide an uptick in shower coverage across our
local waters, especially by Sunday. Seas will fall back to Caution
levels of 4-6 feet on Thursday night near shore, while seas
offshore diminish back to Caution levels by Thursday night and
Friday.
Rip Currents: Breakers will build to 5-7 feet at the Flagler, St.
Johns and Duval County beaches tonight and Wednesday, and a High
Surf Advisory has been issued for these locations. Breakers at the
Nassau County and southeast GA beaches will build to 4-6 feet
tonight and Wednesday. A high risk of deadly rip currents will
continue at all area beaches through at least Thursday, with this
high risk expected to persist into Friday at for the northeast FL
beaches.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
A surge of deep tropical moisture will overspread our region on
Wednesday and Wednesday night, resulting in waves of heavy
downpours that will likely continue through Thursday night.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are forecast,
especially for locations along and north of Interstate 10. Locally
higher totals cannot be ruled out. The Weather Prediction Center
has placed most of southeast GA within a slight risk (level 2 out
of 4) for excessive rainfall on Wednesday, with a marginal risk
(level 1 out of 4) elsewhere. A marginal risk is expected area-
wide on Thursday. Localized flooding will be possible, mainly
across southeast GA and for urban and normally flood prone
locations in northeast and north central FL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
Daily record high temps at our designated climate sites today:
JAX 87/2003...CRG 86/2003...GNV 90/1935...AMG 86/2022
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 83 72 80 / 20 90 70 70
SSI 73 81 72 80 / 20 80 60 40
JAX 72 84 73 83 / 30 70 50 50
SGJ 75 82 74 83 / 50 70 40 30
GNV 74 85 73 83 / 20 80 40 50
OCF 75 85 74 84 / 30 80 30 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ033-038-
125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
125-133-138.
High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ125-133-138.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for GAZ154-
166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Thursday for AMZ470-472-474.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
601 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Wet weather will continue through Thursday as a cold front stalls
out over the region. Rainfall totals could reach up to 3 inches
over portions of northern Mississippi and western Tennessee
during this time frame. High temperatures will cool into the upper
60s and low 70s by the end of the week. Rain chances arrive again
this weekend ahead of another frontal system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
A cold front, currently in central AR, will move into the region
tonight. Synoptically, this front is driven by a large upper
trough now exiting the Rockies. This trough is forecast to become
sheared out, with southerly upper flow overspreading the region
over the next couple days as it progresses northeast over the
CONUS.
As for today, marginal severe chances will persist through the
evening hours. Clearing across N MS has allowed for MLCAPE to jump
to near 1000 J/kg per RAP mesoanalysis with around 40 knots of
effective bulk shear and around 200 ESRH. Normally these values
would promote concerns for higher severe chances, but the lack of
upper level ascent and surface forcing have kept storm coverage
low. Therefore, marginally severe winds are the most likely
hazard with any severe storms.
The cold front will drape itself across the center of the region
tonight. With no upper level support as the upper low pivots
northeast, this front is expected to remain stationary in this
location for a few days. Upper winds are expected to retain a
large southerly component, which is parallel to the boundary,
leading to training thunderstorms. This is already being seen this
afternoon from radar observations. PWATs near 2" and a frontal
zone as a focus for convection has given WPC enough confidence for
a slight risk ERO. Any storms that train over regions for a long
interval are capable of potentially causing flash flooding
concerns this evening and tonight in areas across N MS and W TN.
Showers will gradually diminish in coverage through Thursday as
the frontal boundary become more diffuse. Additional rainfall
should be limited to less than 1 inch Wednesday through Thursday.
Eventually, high pressure begins to reign and easterly/southeasterly
winds will begin to kick the front out. However, weather will
remain humid with higher PoPs after tonight returning this weekend
thanks to a new trough ejecting from the Rockies. Similar to
today`s system, another set of frontal passages are likely, but
ensemble confidence is still too low for specific impacts. And
just in time to add even more uncertainty to the forecast, TS
Rafael`s potential track is still too unresolved to forecast its
impacts on the Midsouth`s forecast next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
A challenging weather pattern for aviation. A subtropical low
level moisture axis extends north along MS River. The Midsouth
will remain under the right entrance region of an upper jet core
over the middle MS River Valley through most of the overnight.
The net effect will be continued favorable upper level support for
SHRA IFR/MVFR conditions.
Marginal instability will support isolated TS overnight,
particularly if accompanied by any weak midlevel disturbance
lifting north from the Arklamiss. Higher cloud tops were noted on
GOES IR imagery over northern LA at discussion time. This may be
indicative of a weak shortwave that may provide a mid/late evening
bump in TS chances MEM. Confidence limited by the marginal
instability.
The upper level jet pattern will become less supportive of heavy
persistent rain and TS on Wednesday. Low MVFR/IFR will likely be
the biggest impacts for the Wednesday evening MEM inbound push.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
454 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow developing late today; with a band of snow occurring
from the Southwest mtns > northern San Luis Valley > northern
Sangres > Fremont county > N and W Pikes Peak Region. Snow
will push across region through tomorrow morning.
- This event will be all snow nearly all areas.
- Rush hour over Pike Peak tomorrow morning could be rough.
- Light snow expected Wednesday evening and overnight, with
heaviest amounts along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and Raton Mesa area.
- Potential for a high impact winter storm event for the end of
the week and into the start of the weekend for the eastern
plains.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
Multiple headline changes based on trends in high res models
which continue to indicate a burst of heavy snow will spread
southward with the baroclinic zone affecting the I-25 corridor
and points westward. With continued heavier QPF projected to
impact the Colorado Springs area and a quick change over to
snow this evening have upgraded northern El Paso county to a
Winter Storm Warning and added Southern El Paso county into the
Winter Weather Advisories. Upgraded central Fremont county to a
Winter Storm Warning where snow totals were already above the 6
inch warning threshold for valley zones. Also spread Winter
weather advisories up through Chaffee and into the San Luis
Valley and eastern slopes of the La Garitas and Eastern San Juan
mountains. Advisories and Warnings will pare down from north to
south Wednesday afternoon and evening, while we prep for round
2. (see below) -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
Overview...
A VERY Active weather pattern will be over the region starting later
today and last into the weekend. High impact weather is becoming
likely.
A trough will deepen and develop into a closed low over the 4
corners by tomorrow morning. The first round of weather will affect
the region starting later today and push across the region tonight
and into tomorrow. This low will then deepen and sink south on
Thursday and then lift northeast towards extreme SW KS by Friday
night. This system promises to bring impactful weather to the region
over the next few days.
Next 24 hours...
Snow showers were developing over NW CO early this afternoon. This
activity will continue to push southeast this afternoon and should
be along the CONTDVD by sunset. As this trough discussed above
pushes across the region, a baroclinic zone is going to develop from
roughly the San Juans northeastward towards the Pikes Peak region,
as this boundary develops, a weak disturbance will move northeast
along it, and this will bring an enhanced area of snow to the region
along this zone. Snow should pick up shortly after sunset and
continue overnight and last into tomorrow. Overall, we anticipated 4
to 8 inches of snow will be possible over N El Paso county with 6 to
12 over parts of Teller county. I should note that some of the
latest HRRR guidance (18Z data) showing higher amounts. S El Paso
county and Pueblo county will see snow, with 1 to 3 inches of snow
likely.
Over the Wets and Sangres, 10 to 20 inches will be possible, with
the highest amounts over the Peaks.
Along the CONTDVD, 4 to up to 16 inches will be likely, with 2 to 4
inches expected over the San Luis Valley, The highest amounts over
the Valley floor will occur over the northern San Luis Valley.
As for temps for to morrow, it will be sharply cooler, with highs
mostly in the 30s over the plains, with temps not reaching above
freezing over N El Paso and parts of the Raton Mesa. Over the
Valleys, max temps around freezing are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
Wednesday Night: Wednesday evening and night will bring some active
and wintry weather to portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. A developing cut-off low will be in place just
south/southwest of the four corners region. While this low sits in
place, minor isentropic ascent, along with increasing moisture, will
overspread the area. Given the synoptic dynamics and moisture
expected to be in place, scattered to numerous pockets of light snow
are anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Additional snow totals will generally range from 0.5-3 inches, with
the heaviest totals along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and into the the Raton Mesa area, where northerly winds behind a
cold front, along with the synoptic dynamics, will favor stronger
forcing. While snow accumulations will lean on the lighter side,
areas of snow and slick covered roads will be possible given snow
falling during the colder evening and overnight hours. Speaking of
temperatures, a chilly night is expected thanks to a cold front
passage early Wednesday, with many areas falling below freezing and
at to slightly below seasonal values.
Thursday - Saturday: For the end of the week and start of the
weekend, a significant winter storm may impact south central and
southeastern Colorado. Current thinking is that the aforementioned
cut-off low will remain just to the south of Colorado and drift
eastward Thursday and Friday and lift to the NE across the Oklahoma
Panhandle early Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing strong
dynamic lift and abundant wrap around moisture. With that all said
though, confidence is only medium to high (50-70%) in current
thinking for storm track given discrepancies in model guidance
regarding eventual storm track and strength. With current thinking
though, precipitation is anticipated to increase for much of south
central and southeastern Colorado, with the heaviest precipitation
likely developing along the eastern plains and particularly south of
Highway 50 and east of the I-25 corridor, where the longest period
of favorable forcing is expected. With that all said, snow will be
the biggest precipitation concern throughout this period. While snow
to some extent is expected for much of the region, there is
potential for a high impact snow event across the eastern plains as
the storm system wraps up and passes around/over south central and
southeastern Colorado, with 1-2+ feet of snow possible in locations.
Confidence is low (~30%) though in how much snow will ultimately
fall, given some uncertainty in storm track, which will play a
massive role in how precipitation/snow materializes across the area.
At this time, the best thing to do is continue to monitor the
forecast for the latest updates and be prepared for the potential of
high impact winter weather later this week and into the weekend,
especially for along and south of Highway 50 and east of I-25
corridor. Looking at temperatures, values will fall near to below
seasonal values. With the active system though, temperatures,
especially day time temperatures, may cool even more than current
thinking, which will also heavily influence how much snow develops.
Sunday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, quieter
weather is anticipated to prevail. Minor ridging will develop behind
the exiting cut-off low. Given increased descent and drier air with
this pattern, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail for south
central and southeastern Colorado. Along with that though, another
shortwave may pass over the region during this period, though any
influence from this wave is expected to be minimal at this time,
other than an isolated mountain shower or two. Beyond all of that,
relatively light winds and occasional pockets of clouds are expected
for much of south central and southeastern Colorado. As for
temperatures, a slow warming trend will take place as the ridging
develops over the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 441 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities with snow showers are
expected through the entire forecast period, with only slight
improvement towards the very end of the period. Show showers will be
moderate to heavy at times through the overnight hours, when brief
periods of LIFR conditions will be possible during heavier showers.
A period of rain and snow mix will be possible at KPUB from around
03Z until around 11Z tonight, with a transition to snow after 11Z.
More snow and degraded conditions are expected from Wednesday night
onwards, after a lull lasting only from late Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday evening.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Wednesday for COZ058-
060-066-068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for
COZ061>063-065-067-076-081>083.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Wednesday for COZ069.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Wednesday for COZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Wednesday for COZ072>075-
078>080.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Friday
night for COZ074-075-087-088-094-099.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ077-084.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Wednesday for COZ085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Wednesday for COZ087-088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR