Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/05/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
808 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Updated the forecast for slightly more SW coverage of the squall
line. With the training potential currently being observed and
forecast by the HRRR, we could see some locally heavy stripes of 4
inch rains over the eastern Hill Country, enough to warrant a brief
FFW threat. Our severe threat appears to be waning to a small hail
and gusty wind as the squall line continues to congeal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...A Line of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms
Expected this Evening for Locations near and East of the I-35
Corridor...
A breezy, warm, and moist southerly flow has continued into the early
afternoon across a majority of the region but winds decrease going
towards the west where a dryline is now entering portions of the
Southern Edwards Plateau. Skies remain mostly cloudy east of I-35
with a few remaining embedded showers, but these will become less
common through early to mid-afternoon. Out west, in the Hill
Country, clouds are breaking ahead of the dryline and this has led
to some vertical growth recently for showers across that area. This
activity moving into Burnet and western Travis/Williamson counties
will be where a pre-frontal storm or two could establish before
activity quickly moves north into the FWD CWA.
The main thunderstorm risk arrives this evening as a cold front
overtakes the eastward advancing dryline. The short term guidance
has become more consistent on showing a broken line of thunderstorms
unzippering in the vicinity or just west of the I-35 Corridor north
of San Marcos this evening. With moderate instability (MLCAPE into
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range) along with increasing bulk shear will
allow for storms to trend strong to isolated severe levels. Primary
hazards would be strong damaging winds followed by large hail but
adequate low-level shear and directional turning of the winds exist
for a low end tornado threat as well. Activity will progress
eastward later tonight into the coastal plains. The SPC has expanded
the level 2 of 5 risk of severe weather on the latest Day 1
Convective outlook more southeastward to include San Marcos,
Gonzalez, and La Grange. The level 1 of 5 risk otherwise remains
very similar to the previous outlook. In addition to the severe
weather risk, intense rainfall rates and initial slow storm movement
could lead to storms quickly producing 2+ inches in a short period
of time and the threat of isolated flash flooding across the region.
Thunderstorm intensity likely wanes beyond midnight to 2 am across
our central and eastern zones but short term guidance still
continues to suggest some elevated post-frontal showers filling in
across the region. This activity should gradually shift eastward
with time as well but it may take until the mid to late Tuesday
morning timeframe to shift out of our CWA to the east. Skies will
otherwise clear out from northwest to southeast into and during
Tuesday afternoon.
The post-frontal north to northwesterly flow ushers in a drier and
slightly cooler airmass across the region through Tuesday and into
Tuesday night. Daytime highs on Tuesday will generally run within
the 70s while the overnight lows for late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning drop into the low to mid 40s within the coolest
valleys to the upper 40s and low 50s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1244 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Our more active weather pattern is expected to continue through the
long term period of the forecast. On Wednesday, southwest flow at the
500mb level will continue ahead of the next approaching upper level
low diving southeast out of the Rockies for late week. This will be
our next rainmaker. Surface flow out of the south will increase once
again ahead of this upper-level disturbance, and upper level support
should be sufficient to support a low to medium chance for showers
and thunderstorms Thursday and again on Friday. Medium range guidance
keeps us in southwest flow until Saturday when the upper low
mentioned above finally moves northeast and lifts out of north Texas.
That should set the stage for a rather nice weekend with highs in the
70s and mornings in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Radar trends look to be in line with the latest HRRR runs in taking
through a near continuous squall line through the metro cities
between 03Z and 07Z. AUS will likely see the first wind shift from
the gust front, as early as 03Z. At SAT, feeder cells east of the
developing line could potentially create some shifty winds before the
main line draws near by 04Z. SSF should see the latest TEMPO group to
end around 07Z. Some hail and wind gusts to near 40 knots are
possible with the stronger activity more probable over Central TX
around AUS. Meanwhile, the frontal shift has already reached DRT, and
only a few low impact showers are forecast for late tonight.
Similarly the conditions should improve quickly along I-35 after
midnight and a few residual showers could occur through 12Z. Post
frontal winds are shown in all the MOS guidances to be higher in the
several hours behind the front, with not much of a mixing boost for
gusts expected after daybreak.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 59 73 52 79 / 80 20 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 60 74 47 78 / 80 20 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 76 51 81 / 80 20 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 57 71 49 77 / 60 10 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 58 75 50 83 / 20 10 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 58 71 48 76 / 80 20 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 60 78 48 81 / 50 20 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 59 74 48 79 / 80 20 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 72 50 78 / 90 30 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 62 77 53 79 / 80 20 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 63 77 52 81 / 80 20 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...18
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
851 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Accumulating snow possible in eastern Colorado and adjacent
portions of Kansas/Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Locally significant snow accumulation possible in eastern
Colorado. Accumulating snow potential decreases with eastern
extent into Kansas and Nebraska. Very low confidence in
precipitation amounts.
- Rain and snow chances increase again Thursday through
Saturday afternoon with another system moving out of the
southern Rockies.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024
A few thoughts on the potential for accumulating snow in
eastern Colorado and adjacent portions of Kansas/Nebraska
Tuesday night into Wednesday:
Model-to-model and run-to-run output/trends vary considerably
with regard to the location, amount and distribution of
precipitation in the lee of the Rockies Tuesday night into
Wednesday. For example, the 00Z HRRR indicates essentially no
precipitation along and north of the I-70 corridor in eastern
Colorado Tue night-Wed morning.. whereas the 00Z NAM NEST
indicates very heavy precipitation with significant snow
accumulation. Forcing (dpva, frontogenesis, etc.) in the lee of
the Rockies appears to be highly sensitive to the evolution of
the upper trough digging southward into the 4-Corners (Tuesday
eve-night) and subsequent cut-off low over the 4-Corners, Desert
Southwest and central/southern Rockies (Wed-Wed night). There
is, however, one common theme amongst all guidance -- the
airmass in place over eastern Colorado (and especially points
further east in Kansas and Nebraska) is only supportive of
accumulating snow in the presence of moderate-heavy, persistent
precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 254 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024
Light rain continues for those along and east of a line from
Kit Carson, Colorado to Colby, Kansas to Oberlin, Kansas. As the
upper level closed low extending from New Mexico into Canada
moves east over the Great Plains, the Gulf of Moisture advecting
into the Tri- State area will begin to taper off even more
bringing an end to the stratiform rain by sunrise Tuesday
morning. There is a low chance of (~ 10-20%) for light snow to
mix in over the higher terrain in Cheyenne County, Colorado
during the overnight hours should temperatures cool off below
freezing. It`s much more likely that the rain comes to an end
prior to the <32F temperatures. That said, there could be some
icy spots in the morning on elevated surfaces as overnight lows
are expected to cool into the 20s to lower 30s as skies clear
behind the system. After sunset winds are expected to lighten up
to 5-10 kts as they shift to the west.
Tomorrow is expected to be dry as we sit between today`s
exiting low and the approaching closed low over the Northern
Rockies. Skies are expected to be clear through much of the day
with increasing cloud cover from the west as another cold front
moves into the region from the northwest. During the day,
temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 50s to around 60
degrees. As a upper low deepens over Wyoming, a Colorado Low
will develop over Southeast Colorado and sweep along the Kansas-
Oklahoma border. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the
closer than low remains close to the Tri-State area the better
chances we will have for rain and light snow. So far we remain
on track for the area to see a few hundredths to ~0.5" of
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. The highest amounts are
currently forecast to be along and north of I-70 and west of
Highway 83, especially East-Central Colorado. Snow amounts favor
the Palmer Divide currently still favoring a Trace to ~5" of
mainly wet snow. Confidence is too low given the ensemble
spreads and probabilities for our Colorado counties. Any snow
accumulations are expected to occur between midnight and sunrise
on Wednesday. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the mid 20s
to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024
On Wednesday, the Colorado Low will be swinging more northeast
over Central Kansas keeping the stratiform moisture from the
comma- head region of the low over the forecast area. The low
looks to move slowly throughout the day as the low deepens and
extends into the Four Corners region. High pressure near the
surface is expected to push into the area from the northwest.
Another surface low may develop on Friday into Saturday keeping
the rain/snow chances around through the Saturday afternoon. For
the most part, rain is expected east of Highway 27. A rain/snow
mix to light snow is possible from Highway 27 into East-Central
Colorado. As temperatures cool off, some rain/snow mix may
extend further east across the area. Light accumulations are
possible primarily over East-Central Colorado. Dry conditions
return Saturday night through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both
terminals.. with cloud cover confined at or above 7,000 ft AGL.
North winds at 10-15 knots will become light/variable late this
evening and overnight. Winds will shift to the WNW-NW and
increase to 10-15 knots early Tuesday afternoon (~18Z).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...Vincent
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
937 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A period of heavy rain is expected tonight, favoring areas
along and north of Interstate 55. A narrow axis of rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches is possible (30 to 50% chance), with
associated flooding of ditches and low-lying areas.
- Periods of strong southwesterly winds are possible tomorrow,
first along and east of Interstate 55 (morning to mid-
afternoon, 45+ mph winds) and then along and northwest of I-55
(afternoon and evening, 30 to 40 mph winds).
- Another period of rain is expected tomorrow afternoon, though
this time favoring areas along and east of I-55. There is a
low (5%) chance for severe weather in the afternoon, as well.
- Wednesday through Friday will be quiet with overnight early to
early morning patchy fog possible outside of Chicago,
- The next round of rain possibly locally heavy, will arrive
late Saturday into early Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Main change to the forecast for tonight was to shift the
heaviest rainfall axis eastward towards, and just northwest of
the I-55 corridor.
While our area has largely been in a lull in the precipitation
for several hours this afternoon and evening, rain is on the
way. In fact, we are already seeing an area of mainly light
rain shifting northward towards the Chicago and Rockford metro
areas along the leading edge of the better moisture advection
associated with the strengthening low-level jet. This area of
rain should overspread most of far northern IL prior to 11 PM
this evening. Overnight, periods of showers and storms will
continue to track north-northeastward along and just ahead of a
strengthening baroclinic zone as a surface low tracks northward
into southern IA by daybreak. Given that these showers and
storms will track over the same areas, there continues to be
concerns for narrow corridors of heavy rainfall amounts
(potentially locally in excess of 3") overnight. While this
raises the concern for possible hydro issues, the ongoing
drought and low river levels should help mitigate the extent of
flooding overnight in most areas, especially outside the urban
corridors around Chicago. With that being said, we will have to
continue to monitor the exact placement of these heavier
rainfall corridors overnight. If one of them happens to occur in
or near the highly urban areas of Chicago, there would be
locally heighten threat for flooding overnight into early
Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, strong south winds are expected to develop overnight
through Tuesday morning, especially for areas south of I-80,
where the current wind advisory is in effect. It is possible the
start time of this advisory may need to be moved up a few hours
from its current 6am start time.
KJB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Through Tuesday:
A recent hand surface analysis, GOES-16 satellite data, and mosaic
radar imagery depict a broad baroclinic zone stretching from the
Great Lakes to the southern Plains ahead of compact upper-level
trough digging into western Texas. The airmass within and ahead of
the baroclinic zone is unusually warm and moist with respect to the
time of year, with the 12Z ILX RAOB sampling a daily record PWAT of
1.59". Waves of showers and thunderstorms continue to parade within
the resident moist airmass, with our area currently in a relative
lull between individual waves. Temperatures are currently in the mid
to upper 60s across our local area, which are some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for the time of year. When combined with the unusually
high humidity levels, it feels more like spring than late fall
outside.
Over the next 24 hours, a baggy surface low stretching from central
Oklahoma through central Texas is expected to consolidate and
intensify while lifting northeastward toward southern Iowa by
daybreak Tuesday. Interestingly, available model guidance exhibits
unusually large spread with respect to the degree of strengthening
and the eventual track of the low, likely owing to differences in
handling and positioning of the conglomerate convective surface cold
pool in central Oklahoma (which may act to offset the surface
cyclone too far eastward from the upper-level trough to the west for
optimal phasing). With that said, the expectation for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and expand northeastward into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley after dark within weakly coupled upper-
level jet streaks and forcing along the nose of an intensifying low-
level jet remains.
With a slug of unbelievably anomalously high moisture characterized
by PWATS of 1.75"+ overlapping with widespread synoptic-scale
forcing (925 to 850mb flow increasing to 45 to 60kt), concern
remains that there will an axis of very heavy rainfall somewhere in
northern Illinois tonight. Just to dwell on the forecasted moisture
surge...PWATs of 1.75" are some 4 standard deviations above the mean
for this time of year, and have never been measured by the DVN/ILX
RAOBs during any day between November through April. It is for this
reason that rainfall rates tonight may get out of hand beneath the
most persistent convective cores, leading to threat for a narrow
swath of rain of 2 to locally 5 inches within 3 to 6 hours.
Even with the ongoing drought, such rainfall amounts in such a
relative short period of time will lead to ponding in low-lying
areas and even flash flooding, provided the axis aligns with an
urban area. Moreover, any clogged storm drains by fallen leaves
may lead to localized flooding, as well. Owing to the
aforementioned differences in the evolution of the surface low
among available model guidance, pinpointing where such an axis
may materialize is difficult to discern even at this short- term
range. With that said, both global and high resolution guidance
favors anywhere northwest of I-55 as being in the threat zone
for the axis of heavy rain. Much like watching trends on summer
day to pinpoint areas of relatively higher threat for severe
weather, the incoming evening shift will have to closely monitor
the evolution of the surface low and convection upstream to
help inform whether a targeted Flood Watch will be needed for
the overnight period.
Tomorrow morning, mixing into the base of the low-level jet will
promote quickly-increasing southwesterly winds. The strongest winds
currently appear favored across eastern Illinois and northwestern
Indiana where the chances for rainfall are lower compared to points
to the west. While it is always difficult to discern just how strong
winds will mix downward within a moist warm air advection regime (in
which air is resistant to downward motion), forecast BUFKIT profiles
ubiquitously depict the upper third of the mixing profiles tapping
into 45 to locally 55kt of flow. Moreover, the latest EPS/GEFS
guidance depicts mean wind gusts in excess of 40kt along and east of
I-55. (And, explicit output from the 12Z HRRR shows forecasted wind
gusts peaking near 60 mph, though admittedly, this appears too
high). In all, felt there was more than enough justification to
issue a Wind Advisory from daybreak through mid-afternoon generally
along and east of I-55. Outside of the winds, any lingering rain
from the overnight period northwest of I-55 should taper by mid-
morning.
Tomorrow afternoon, confidence is slowly increasing in another batch
of rainfall in the afternoon, focused along and east of I-55, as the
parent upper-level trough and resulting shortwave race northeastward
into the Great Lakes. While forecast instability profiles look
fairly meager (amounting to MUCAPE of 250 J/kg or less), forecast
kinematic profiles that exhibit strong directional and speed shear
focused in the lowest 3 km raise concern for low-topped embedded
convective elements with both a damaging wind and even brief tornado
threats. The 12 HRRR appeared to be the most aggressive, with
explicit output of 60 mph wind gusts within embedded low-topped
supercells. At this point, such a threat appears highly conditional
on enough detablization to take place to foster low-level
instability, and indeed, these types of set-ups are often boom to
largely bust. While we did tap SPC on the shoulder to take a close
look at our area tomorrow morning (when trends in instability should
become more clear), we will withhold more formal messaging of a
severe weather threat tomorrow afternoon for the time being.
Also tomorrow afternoon, increasingly breezy winds are favored
northwest of I-55 as mixing heights build into the increasingly
tight pressure gradient (e.g. surface low makes its closest approach
while lifting into Wisconsin). At this point, BUFKIT profiles favor
peak wind gusts of 35-40 mph, though an upward adjustment is
certainly in play if more aggressive guidance (i.e., the GFS)
verifies.
Borchardt
Tuesday Night through Monday:
The system cold front will sweep across the area Tuesday evening.
Strong low-level wind fields immediately out ahead of and within a
few hours of the frontal passage will continue to translate to gusts
up to 30-40 mph, with direction veering from south-southwest to west-
southwest. The potential exists for sporadic gusts up to 45 mph (if
the more aggressive guidance verifies, as noted previously) near and
north of I-80 until about 9-10pm as robust isallobaric pressure
rises overspread the area amidst cold air advection/steepening lower
level lapse rates. Winds will steadily diminish overnight, enabling
lows in the low-mid 40s, cooler than the prior few nights but still
well above normal.
Surface high pressure will then be in control of our weather
Wednesday through Friday, underneath partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies. The air mass aloft will remain above normal for November,
resulting in high temperatures about 5F above normal on Wednesday
(mid-upper 50s) and 5-10F above normal on Thursday-Friday (upper 50s
to around 60F/lower 60s). The only item of note in this period is
the potential for overnight radiational fog development outside of
Chicago, with recent rain contributing to boundary layer moisture.
Our forecast lows on Wednesday night and Thursday night outside
Chicago are generally in the 35-40F range, which are expected to be
below afternoon crossover values. High clouds may be somewhat of a
limiting factor for more widespread fog on Wednesday night and then
modestly stronger flow above the inversion may limit fog coverage
Thursday night.
Another deep trough/upper low will eject from the southern Plains to
the upper MS Valley Saturday into early Sunday. Considering the
antecedent dry column associated with the expansive surface high
pressure and typical slowing trend with these systems, the bulk of
the rain may end up falling toward and after dark Saturday evening.
Our official forecast indicates expanding shower chances during the
day on Saturday, especially in the afternoon, and then likely PoPs
(60-70%+) Saturday night. Anomalous PWATs (albeit not quite as
extreme as tonight) in the moist plume could certainly bring pockets
of heavy rain again. Breezy southwest winds and diminishing precip.
chances can be expected in the wake of the system on Sunday,
followed by dry and mild conditions next Monday.
Castro
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Key Messages:
- Gusty south to southwest winds through much of the TAF
period, strongest on Tuesday with 35+ kt gusts probable.
- Marginal LLWS possible late tonight into early Tuesday.
- Waves of rain/showers through much of the TAF period. Embedded
thunderstorms and/or locally heavy rainfall possible
overnight, potentially resulting in IFR visibilities or
ceilings.
- Predominantly MVFR ceilings expected over much of the TAF
period.
A strong fall storm system will affect the area over the course
of the current TAF period. Winds will be out of the south
tonight and into tomorrow and should become breezier over the
course of the night, eventually beginning to gust in excess of
30-35 kts after daybreak tomorrow. A strong low-level jet (~60
kts at 2500 ft AGL over the Chicago metro) could necessitate a
low- level wind shear mention in the TAFs, but current thinking
is that the strongest winds aloft will coincide with when the
strongest gusts will begin occurring regularly at the surface,
so continued to omit a formal LLWS mention from the TAFs with
the latest TAF package. Winds may come down a bit later on in
the day and will shift to a southwesterly direction behind a
cold front tomorrow evening, but gusts near and in excess of 30
kts should nevertheless remain common during the afternoon and
evening.
Waves of rain/showers are also expected over the course of the
TAF period. The main wave of rain will push through the area
overnight, bringing at least MVFR ceilings and visibilities
along with it. An axis of heavier rainfall is expected to occur
within the broader rain shield overnight, and if this axis were
to set up over one or more of the terminals, then IFR
conditions would likely need to be more prominently advertised
in the corresponding TAFs. However, confidence in where this
axis of heavier rainfall will set up remained too low at TAF
issuance time to deviate much from the visibilities and
ceilings in the inherited TAFs. Embedded thunderstorms may also
occur within the broader rain shield, and feel that the going
PROB30 groups handle that possibility well at this time.
A relative lull in rainfall (at least the steadier, heavier
rainfall) looks to occur tomorrow morning before another wave of
steady rain pushes in during the afternoon. Visibilities with
this afternoon round don`t look like they`ll get as low as they
might overnight, but at least MVFR visibility reductions still
appear to be possible at times. MVFR ceilings are also likely to
continue throughout this time. Most or all of the rain should
end late tomorrow afternoon or early evening as the system`s
cold front pushes through. The MVFR ceilings are also likely to
lift and/or scatter out by this time as well.
Ogorek
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Tonight through Tuesday, a surface low pressure system is
expected to develop in the Southern Plains and lift
northeastward into the Great Lakes. As the system approaches
tomorrow tonight, a few southwesterly gale force gusts may occur
particularly for taller objects and platforms as near-surface
stability limits prevailing gusts at the lake surface. However,
after daybreak, southwesterly gale force gusts are expected to
prevail. For this reason, have adjusted the start time of the
inherited Gale Warning to start during the early morning hours
of Tuesday. Note that a few storm force gusts cannot be ruled
out from late morning to early afternoon.
Southwesterly gale force winds will trend westerly tomorrow
afternoon and evening along the backside of the surface low.
With increasing confidence in gale force winds continuing
through the overnight hours, the Gale Warning was extended to
expire early Wednesday morning.
With a largely offshore component to the wind, waves are
expected to be relatively subdued in the nearshore waters with
substantially higher waves in the open waters of Lake Michigan.
Borchardt
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
There is a low (20 to 30%) chance for flooding in northern Illinois
northwest of Interstate 55 tonight.
As a surface low pressure system develops and lifts northeastward
toward Iowa tonight, an extremely anomalously moist airmass will
lift northeastward into northern Illinois.
PWATs are forecasted to rise to 1.75" or more, which when combined
with large-scale synoptic scale forcing, will lead to a blossoming
area of showers and thunderstorms. While widespread rainfall of 1 to
2 inches are expected along and northwest of I-55, a narrow axis of
2 to 5 inches within 3 to 6 hours is possible (30 to 50% chance)
somewhere within the broader region of rainfall.
While all of northern Illinois remains in a D1 to D2 drought,
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches in 3 to 6 hours would result in
localized flooding of low-lying areas including ditches, low-lying
spots, and farm fields. If such an axis of rainfall overlaps an
urban area, flooding of streets, viaducts, and small streams and
creeks may occur. Meanwhile, if total rainfall amounts remain
between 1 and 2 inches, little to no flooding would be expected.
As trends in the surface low and upstream showers and thunderstorms
become clear, a targeted Flood Watch may be issued for part of our
area this evening covering the overnight period. For now, please
refer to the Hydrologic Outlook for additional details.
Borchardt
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 625 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
The daily warm record lows are likely to be broken today at both
Chicago and Rockford. The current records are 61 for Chicago and
59 at Rockford, both set back in 2022. In addition, Chicago`s
low temperature today through 6 AM has been 63 degrees. It is
not expected to drop below 63 prior to midnight tonight, which
if it doesn`t it would tie the all time warmest low temperature
for the month of November which is 63 degrees. This was set
back on 11/6/1924, 11/7/1975, and 11/9/2020.
Finally, here are the daily rainfall records today and Tuesday:
Chicago Rockford
Today (11/4) 1.83" (1959) 1.27" (1959)
Tuesday (11/5) 3.34" (1883) 1.02" (1994)
- Izzi
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for ILZ021-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
IN...Wind Advisory from 6 AM CST /7 AM EST/ to 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/
Tuesday for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for the IL and IN
nearshore waters.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for the
IL and IN nearshore waters.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
542 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight. A few
severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening, particularly
over central and east central Missouri. The primary threats will be
large hail and damaging winds.
- Rain will move out of the area by late Tuesday leaving Wednesday
and Thursday. There will be additional chances of rain over the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms that has produced
flooding over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois today has
begun to lift northward this afternoon along weak boundary. It will
continue to lift northward into the northern CWA through early
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are currently moving into
western Missouri ahead of a cold front. Latest mesoanalysis is
showing 500-1000+ J/kg of MLCAPE along along the MO/AR state line
that the RAP has moving north into central MO by 00Z. CAMS have the
current line of storms moving east into the CWA by early this
evening and then slowly progressing east ahead of the front through
the across eastern MO/SW IL during the late evening and overnight
hours. The combination of instability and deep/low layer shear
still favors a few severe storms capable of producing damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes over central and east central MO this
evening. The chance for severe weather will decrease overnight as
the line moves into less instability. In addition, another 1-2"+
of rainfall will be possible through tomorrow, but the axis of
heaviest rainfall will now be over the northwest third of the CWA
which will limit additional flooding.
The chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into Tuesday as the front slowly moves east across the area. The
front will not clear the area until late in the day, so the chances
will remain high (70-90%) over thee Illinois counties into the
afternoon.
Britt
&&
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Mainly dry weather is still expected Wednesday into Thursday night
as an upper ridge moves across the area. The LREF is showing the
next upper trough moving the Midwest on Saturday night which will
bring rain chances to the area from Friday to Sunday with the best
chances (70-90%) on Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will
remain seasonable through the weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
affect the terminals through the evening into the overnight hours
and then move out on Tuesday morning. A few of these storms could
produce wind gusts over 35 knots and small hail. MVFR and IFR
ceilings and visibilities can be expected with this activity
before improving to VFR by late morning and early afternoon.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
537 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Warm and humid weather will give way to gusty winds and thunderstorms
tomorrow with the passage of a cold front. Rain is expected to
continue through Thursday, with temperatures hovering in the 70s
and low 80s. High temperatures will continue to cool through this
weekend dropping into the low 70s by the end of the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
A much more progressive, active pattern is currently impacting the
CONUS this week compared to that of a month ago. A deep, longwave
upper trough is present over the Rockies this afternoon. In response,
a surface low has developed across the southern plains, with a
cold front extending south across central TX. Both features are
expected to continue traversing east, eventually making it to the
Midsouth by tomorrow afternoon.
For today, a Wind Advisory is currently in effect for the western
half of the CWA. Observations have shown that winds have leveled
off compared to this morning, but will continue to be windy into
this evening. At this time, an extension of today`s advisory
through tonight is not expected, but can`t be ruled out given that
HREF guidance shows a decent signal that wind gusts above 30 mph
could continue into tomorrow. However, a couple of factors still
prevent confidence in advisory-level winds materializing: 1) a low
level inversion tonight prevents mixing of stronger gusts to the
surface and 2) large spread in sustained winds centered around 17
knots. However, tomorrow does seem to contain a similar setup for
gusty winds and the issuance of a new advisory also cannot be
ruled out sometime tonight.
Outside of wind, conditions tomorrow morning will be humid as
cold front approaches. Storms are expected to accompany this
frontal passage. SPC day 2 convective outlook keeps the region out
of any severe risks. This is primarily due to a lack of
instability, but trends in the HRRR/HREF have shown an increase
in instability over the past couple runs. Given ample mid-level
shear and a frontal boundary, if these trends continue an upgrade
to marginal can`t be ruled out.
Through the day, the front will move in, slow down, and begin to
stall out in the center of the CWA. By this point in the forecast,
the upper level trough has attained a more sheared out presentation
while slowly moving east. A jet streak will be stretched across
the central CONUS from AR to MI, with the Midsouth being in the
right entrance region. This combined with a stalled front, PWATs
generally over 1.75", and a stalled boundary as a focus for
precipitation, will favor sustained rainfall over the CWA. Current
QPF estimates range anywhere from 1" - 2", with locally heavier
amounts possible through Thursday. By next Friday, the front will
become more diffuse and precipitation should gradually diminish
in strength and coverage.
The NHC is actively issuing advisories on TS Rafael in the
western Caribbean. The current forecast for this storm is to track
into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane Thursday afternoon. From
this point in its forecast, model spread greatly increases.
Therefore, it is difficult to say at this time if the Midsouth
will see any impacts. At the same time, another longwave trough
will exit the Rockies by Saturday. Ensembles are in good agreement
on timing and strength, which adds more confidence to this
forecast than usual at this range. So expect more rain to impact
the Southern CONUS sometime early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Surface winds and LLWS will remain the primary impact through
midmorning Tuesday. Similar to the last few days, expect MVFR CIG
to develop by around 12Z.
Tuesday`s TSRA timing generally follows HRRR and previous TAF.
Following frontal passage Tuesday afternoon, ensemble guidance
points toward high probability of IFR or lower for the Tuesday
evening MEM inbound push.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for MSZ001-007-010.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TNZ001-002-019-048-
049-088.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
652 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rainfall develops on Tuesday, lingering into Tuesday
evening, providing another 0.4 to 0.8 inches of rainfall to
the area.
-Dry weather weather Wednesday through the end of the week with
temperatures above normal, then rain returns Saturday night
and Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
RAP surface analysis shows a surface trough associated with a cold
front of around 1004 mb approaching the western UP. This cold front
in addition to a warm front simultaneously lifting into the UP today
is causing multiple areas of showers this afternoon. Hourly
precipitation rates have not been overwhelming today, with MRMS
showing up to 0.15 inches/hour at most. Ultimately, while light rain
is in the forecast for much of the UP throughout this evening and
overnight, not much rain is expected, with probabilities of a half
inch of precipitation by 12Z Tuesday morning only up to 30% along
Lake Michigan and less than 10% elsewhere. Stout cloud cover from
these systems will keep low temperatures in the 40s to low 50s,
which is approximately what the high temperatures are normally this
time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
After the dryness thru late summer and early fall that led to
expanding drought (up to severe drought category) across Upper MI, a
more active pattern, one favoring more frequent pcpn for Upper MI,
has set in. This pattern is more typical of this time of year, and
it will continue. Medium range models are in good agreement on the
flow evolution across N America into early next week. Amplified
pattern across the Lwr 48 currently features strong ridging over
eastern N America, troffing from n central Canada to NM where a well-
defined shortwave is located, and a vigorous shortwave arriving over
the Pacific NW. As that vigorous wave drops toward the southern
Rockies, the wave over NM will get kicked ne, weakening as it
encounters a more confluent flow regime in the area from the Great
Lakes to Hudson Bay. Although weakening, the wave will spread the
next round of widespread rain across Upper MI Tue into Tue evening.
Flow then consolidates thru southern Canada, resulting in the
southern Rockies wave getting left behind for a time. This
consolidated flow will carry a shortwave from northern British
Columbia Wed evening to northern Ontario for Thu evening. This
period of consolidating flow across southern Canada will bring a dry
period of weather to Upper MI Wed into Sat as the wave in Ontario
will pass by too far to the n while the cutoff wave over the
southern Rockies will be too far to the sw even though it eventually
drifts out into the central Plains by Sat evening. The Plains wave
will then head to the Upper Great Lakes late weekend, bringing the
next round of rainfall to Upper MI, as upstream wave moving thru the
Pacific NW/sw Canada gives it a kick. That wave will reach the Upper
Lakes late Sun night/early Mon. As for temps, above normal temps
will prevail thru the weekend as there is a lack of cold air
following Tue`s wave, and then the consolidation of flow to the n
across southern Canada will prevent any cold air from pushing s thru
the weekend. Looking farther ahead, the latest CFSv2 ensemble mean
and latest ECMWF Weeklies indicate western N America troffing and
eastern N America ridging will mostly prevail thru the rest of Nov.
For Upper MI, this suggests that above normal temps will be favored
for the majority of days along with pcpn likely at or above normal.
Keep in mind that normal high temps at this time of year fall 1
degree every 2 to 3 days. By the end of the month, normal highs are
in the low to mid 30s F across the fcst area.
Beginning Tue/Tue night, ongoing rain over about the se 2/3rds of
Upper MI will expand nw in the morning thru early aftn as shortwave
lifts out toward the Upper Great Lakes, resulting in increasing
isentropic ascent and deep layer forcing under 12hr 500mb height
falls of around 110m. Precipitable water at 200-300pct supports
potential of heavy rainfall, but rain amounts will be limited by the
relatively short period of strongest forcing. Expect a general 0.4
to 0.8 inches of pcpn Tue into Tue evening. Ensemble probability of
exceeding 1 inch Tue/Tue night is low at less than 30pct. Rainfall
will wind down in the evening and mostly end, but some cyclonic,
upslope n to nw flow -shra may linger. 850mb temps falling to around
-1C won`t be low enough for pure lake effect shra to occur or for
any ptype concerns to enter the picture. Winds closer to Lake
Superior will gust to 20-30mph as the wave departs Tue night. It is
noted that the NCEP models show a deeper sfc low pres wave tracking
ne thru western Upper MI. These solutions were mostly discounted
based on the non NCEP models agreeing on a weaker sfc low tracking
ne thru s central and eastern Upper MI.
A few -shra may linger early Wed morning into eastern Upper MI, but
again, air mass won`t be cold enough to support pure lake effect
shra. Otherwise, a fair amount of stratocu may linger thru the day.
Dry weather will then follow thru the end of the week under what
should be mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights thru Fri night.
Wave reaching northern Ontario late Thu will result in breezy winds
developing, mainly across the Keweenaw under a favorable w wind
direction. Winds should gust to 30+mph there late Thu aftn and
night. Expect high temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s F Wed thru Sat
Clouds will be on the increase on Sat ahead of the wave approaching
from the Plains.
Plains wave will lift into the Upper Great Lakes on Sun, bringing
the next round of widespread rainfall, beginning Sat night and
continuing on Sun. Dry weather returns on Mon, especially if the
following shortwave tracking eastward from the Pacific NW/sw
Canada passes early in the day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Isolated to scattered rain showers tonight into Tue morning over
mainly SAW will become more widespread across the area on Tue
afternoon as another wave from the Central Plains lifts across
a frontal boundary draped over the area. LIFR cigs at IWD and
CMX are expected to improve to MVFR late evening into the
overnight hours before lowering back down again to IFR Tue
afternoon with the onset on steadier rain showers. For SAW, IFR
conditions are expected tonight under isolated to scattered
rain showers but then as heavier showers move in Tue afternoon
conditions should gradually lower back to LIFR late in the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 430 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Cold front moving across Lake Superior tonight will bring a wind
shift from southerly up to 20kt to westerly up to 20kt. A low pres
wave will then lift ne along the frontal boundary, resulting in
winds veering to the NE on Tue. By late aftn, expect gusts 20-30kt,
strongest over western Lake Superior. Winds will then back to the N
Tue night as the low tracks thru central Upper MI and far se Lake
Superior. Expect gusts 20-30kt, strongest over central and eastern
Lake Superior. Ensemble and local probabilistic guidance suggest a
20-40pct chc of gusts reaching gale force. Winds diminish to under
20kt from w to e on Wed as high pres ridge builds into the Upper
Lakes. That ridge will sink s for Thu as low pres tracks e to Hudson
Bay. Tightening pres gradient will result in W to WSW winds
increasing to 20-30kt on Thu, strongest btwn Isle Royale and the
Keweenaw. Wind increase a little more Thu night with gale gusts
appearing likely. Ensemble guidance indicates highest probability of
gales (70-80pct probability) to the w, n and ne of the Keweenaw at
that time. Winds will settle back from w to e on Fri and will be
under 20kt lakewide by Fri evening. Expect southerly winds mostly
under 20kt on Sat.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...Rolfson
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
350 PM PST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM PST Mon Nov 4 2024
Gusty offshore winds today will help prime the environment for
critical fire weather concerns Tuesday through Thursday. Strong
offshore winds and critically dry conditions develop Tuesday
morning through Thursday morning with a Red Flag Warning going
into effect at 11AM Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM PST Mon Nov 4 2024
Gusty offshore winds continue today, particularly across the higher
elevations, as ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest and
troughing continues over desert Southwest. While peak gusts have
largely stayed between 20 to 30 mph, higher gusts remain possible
across higher terrain and along ridgetops. For example, at 12:40AM
Mount St. Helena reported a maximum gust of 65 mph and the Diablo-
Blackhawk PGE station gusts peaked at 42 mph at 12:10AM. Winds look
to weaken late across most areas this afternoon through early
Tuesday morning as the first upper level trough exits the Desert
Southwest and upper level ridging spreads into the Intermountain
West. HRRR KSFO-KWMC pressure gradient guidance suggests that a
weakly positive gradient (+1-2 hPa) will continue through this
evening and into early tomorrow morning, supporting relatively light
winds across the lower elevations before the pressure gradient
reverses Tuesday. While, in comparison to the Tuesday to Thursday
wind event, this initial burst of offshore winds is weaker and
shorter lived in duration it still serves to decrease fuel moisture
(i.e. dry out) of the smaller, finer fuels (grasses, shrubs, etc.).
This will essentially prime the environment for critical fire
weather concerns Tuesday through Thursday.
Beginning mid to late Tuesday, the ridge is expected to
retrograde back over the Pacific Northwest as a second upper level
low pressure system digs into the Intermountain West. As this trough
strengthens, it will become sharper and more positively oriented
over the Desert Southwest. This will allow for the development of
widespread, strong offshore winds between 20 to 30 mph and gusts up
to 50 mph. At the same time, drier conditions return across the Bay
Area and Central Coast with relative humidity values as low as 13%
possible. A Red Flag Warning will go into effect for the majority of
the Bay Area and Central Coast at 11AM Tuesday through 7AM Thursday
due to a combination of strong offshore winds and critically dry
conditions. Residents should not engage in any activities that may
result in the development of wildfires as this setup will allow for
the rapid growth and spread of any fires that do develop. Any
remaining holiday decorations or loose furniture/outdoor items
should be taken down and brought inside today in advance of
tomorrow`s gusty winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM PST Mon Nov 4 2024
Strong offshore winds will peak Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning with widespread gusts up to 55 mph and gusts in exceedance
of 55 mph possible across ridgetops. The GFS KSFO-KWMC pressure
gradient supports this timeline as the negative pressure gradient
strengthens to -5 hPa by 4/5PM and eventually reaches -10 hPa to -14
hPa overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The strongest gusts are likely
to develop across the interior North Bay Mountains, developing first
across eastern Napa County during the evening and gradually
spreading into western Napa/eastern Sonoma county by late
evening/overnight. While higher gusts look to remain within areas of
elevated terrain, we cannot rule out the possibility of stronger
gusts, particularly in the North Bay, mixing down into the valleys.
Critically dry overnight and daytime conditions will persist through
mid to late week before overnight conditions start to improve
Thursday into Friday. Increased nocturnal drying is possible
overnight Tuesday and Wednesday across mountain ridgetops which may
result in relative humidities dropping into the single digits. This
would result in particularly dangerous fire conditions across the
ridgetops as any fires that develop there would be able to burn
overnight. While the Red Flag Warning is in effect conditions will
be prime for rapid, uncontrollable fire spread and, as such, any and
all activities that may result in wildfire development should be
immediately halted.
That being said, we start to see some improvements overnight
Wednesday into Thursday as winds start to weaken. By Thursday
morning, offshore winds will drop off more rapidly with the Red Flag
Warning currently set to expire at 7AM that morning. It is worth
noting, however, that while winds drop off and overnight humidity
recoveries start to improve that night, daytime conditions will
remain dry heading into the weekend. Late this weekend into early
next week, temperatures will cool down to near normal to slightly
below average and precipitation chances start to increase. Long
range GFS guidance indicates we may see our next chance for rain by
early next week but, as this is over a week out, we`ll have to see
how the forecast evolves between now and then.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 349 PM PST Mon Nov 4 2024
VFR continues with the exception of KHAF where haze has created some
MVFR visibilities. There is some uncertainty when the haze will
clear but models show early Tuesday morning but confidence is low.
High confidence that VFR will prevail for the remaining TAF sites.
Wind are generally N/NW with moderate to breezy speeds, which will
diminish tonight and winds will become more variable. Breezy NW
winds return by Tuesday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...High confidence VFR will prevail through the TAF
period. Breezy W/NW winds will diminish tonight to light and
variable before returning to westerly breezy winds by Tuesday
afternoon. There is a chance for low-level turbulence throughout
the remainder of the day from strong 1,000 feet N/NE winds.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. NW
moderate to breezy winds will diminish tonight and rebuild Tuesday
afternoon to moderate.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM PST Mon Nov 4 2024
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to move
towards our coastal waters over the next couple days. The gradient
between this system and a low pressure trough over California
will support strong NNW winds with gale force gusts across the
majority of the exposed marine zones through Wednesday. While the
winds will remain strong, the long period NW swell will gradually
abate over the next 24 hours, allowing the significant wave
heights to abate from very rough to rough.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-530.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM PST Thursday for
CAZ006-502>504-506-508>510-512>515-517-518-529.
PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure across New England and the mid-Atlantic will
shift offshore this afternoon. A southeast return flow around the
high will develop across the Carolinas tonight and persist through
mid week. A cold front will drop south into the region on Thursday
and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...
With the evening update, made some minor tweaks to the minimal rain
chances that will be clipping western counties late tonight using
the 00Z HRRR-TL. It still appears that the bulk of precipitation
will remain across the western half of the state, with Davidson,
Stanly, and Anson counties barely grazed by a slight chance of rain
tonight, and any rain that occurs should be light in nature. The
potential for some patchy dense fog remains greatest to the north
and east of the Triangle, but is possible nearly everywhere. As for
temperatures, locations across the northern part of the forecast
area should already be close to their low temperature for the night
with values remaining nearly steady overnight in the low to mid 50s.
Farther to the south, temperatures should fall into the mid to upper
50s. Previous discussion follows.
As of 244 PM Monday...
The latest surface analysis shows a 1034mb area of surface high
pressure centered off the New England Coast that extends
southwest across the mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas in a
Classical CAD setup. Regional VWPs show that just atop the
shallow cool layer with a northeast flow at the surface, the
flow becomes more east and southeast at 2-4kft. This return flow
from off the ocean is transporting increased low level moisture
into the region. Further aloft a strong ridge of high pressure
is noted just off the Southeast coast at mid and upper levels
with a weakening/opening closed low noted across the Four
Corners region resulting in a southwest flow aloft.
Recent visible satellite imagery and surface observations show
the large region of stratus across much central NC this morning
has retreated to the northwest and eroded with some lingering
overcast in the Triad region, largely near and north if I-85.
Skies across the rest of central NC are mostly sunny with some
patches of stratocumulus clouds and a veil of high cirrus
clouds.
Cloudiness is expected to increase and redevelop tonight as a
moist air mass and a veering wind profile supports shallow
ascent and warm/moist advection. Across the far western
Piedmont and Yadkin Valley areas the ascent may be sufficient
to support some spotty light rain or drizzle very late tonight.
This is noted in various CAMS and is supported with modest
isentropic lift which appears to maximized around the 295-300K
surfaces. Across northeastern areas, there is a signal for some
area of fog to develop late tonight as well, especially near
Roanoke Rapids and Rocky Mount. Lows tonight should be observed
in the late evening or early overnight hours with temperatures
steady or slowing rising overnight. Lows should range in the
lower 50s across the Triad, to the mid 50s in the Triangle to
the upper 50s in Fayetteville.
-Blaes
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Monday...
The lingering CAD wedge from the surface high will continue to get
eroded on Tuesday by SE low-level flow, as the high will be located
east of the Mid-Atlantic and drift south towards Bermuda. Model
soundings indicate there should be a good amount of mixing and
clearing across much of central NC, with partly to mostly sunny
skies by the afternoon. The one exception is the far W and NW
Piedmont, particularly around INT, where moist upglide over the
remaining wedge may keep skies mostly cloudy for much of the day.
This is also where some patchy light rain or drizzle can`t be ruled
out. The best chance appears to be in the morning, but slight chance
POPs linger there through the day and into Tuesday night. While PW
values of about 1-1.25" will likely persist there, models are
consistent in showing the best moisture plume and rain chances just
to the west over the Foothills. There is also no forcing to speak
of, with a mid-level high centered off the Southeast US coast, and
the environment will be quite stable. So any rainfall amounts would
be light, less than a tenth of an inch.
Can`t rule out some patchy light rain farther east, particularly if
the HRRR verifies, but other guidance is dry there and confidence is
not high enough to introduce any POPs there at this time. The SE
flow and clearing in many areas will help temperatures reach the mid-
70s to lower-80s in the afternoon, with the exception of the Triad
region where forecast highs are lower-70s.
Tuesday night will be dreary, with low overcast likely making a
return across the west. Some patchy fog also can`t be ruled out
anywhere in central NC. Lows will be very mild, in the upper-50s to
lower-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 221 PM Monday...
With the upper level ridge shifting offshore Wednesday the back side
of the ridge will help pull an abundance of moisture from the south
to the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. This will continue through
the week and much of the weekend as a series of upper level short
waves move across the region as well as the tropical disturbance. By
late Monday, a deepening trough moving across CONUS will shift over
the eastern half of CONUS drying out much of the region.
At the surface, a cold front extending from the Lower Great Lakes
down across the OH and TN valley down into the southeastern portion
of the Southern Plains will continue to push eastward Wednesday.
While this frontal boundary is expected to stall over the Deep South
region, the moisture surge will come from the south as well as
onshore flow from the surface high offshore. With all that in mind,
expect showers to be present Wednesday morning in the Western
Piedmont and continuing to expand east through the afternoon and
evening. The best chance for showers will be late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. For now limited CAPE across the region with
cooling temperatures thus little to no Thunderstorms are expected.
Chance of PoPs will slowly clear the region Friday as the front
passes the region followed by a cooler and drier airmass. We may
even see some sunshine in the late afternoon early evening before
the sunsets around 515pm. Over the weekend, as the Tropical Cyclone
is expected to make landfall somewhere along the Central Gulf Coast,
another plume of moisture is expected to move over Central NC
bringing another round of isolated to scattered showers for the
weekend.
Temperatures will be well above average during the long term.
Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day of the week with highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s. Areas in the south could be close to
breaking the daily high temperature (see climate section at end of
AFD). Increased rain chances and cloud cover, temps will be low to
mid 70s on Thursday and Friday. After the front moves through
sometime late Friday expect temperatures to drop Friday night into
the low/mid 50s in most areas, some cooler spots could drop into the
upper 40s. While it will be a tad cooler and in the upper 60s to low
70s over the weekend, temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees
above average.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 654 PM Monday...
24 hour TAF period: A tricky aviation forecast wrt fog/low stratus
timing and spatial extent tonight into Tue morn. High confidence the
low stratus/fog will develop, earliest at KRWI and spreading
westward toward KRDU quickly thereafter. LIFR conditions are
expected at those terminals. How far west and south the restrictions
progress is of lower confidence. Latest hi-res guidance suggests
IFR/LIFR conditions should spread into the Triad, impacting KGSO and
KINT, while the chances are a bit lower at KFAY, but still possible
for at least a couple/few hours. There could also be some light rain
or drizzle at KINT/KGSO Tue. Conditions will be slowest to improve
at KINT/KGSO, with the other terminals expected to return to VFR,
albeit with overcast high clouds prevailing, by late Tue morning/mid
day. There is a chance KINT/KGSO could stay sub-VFR through the
period, or may have just a couple/few hours of VFR conditions in the
aft. -KC
Outlook: There is risk of a few episodes of localized sub-VFR
conditions and patchy light rain across southern and western
locations into early Wednesday. A slightly better chance of rain
arrives for Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly over southern and
western areas, but confidence in the details is low. Some
improvement is expected on Friday before the next chance of
unsettled weather arrives on Saturday. -Blaes
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
November 5: November 6: November 7:
KFAY: 86/2003 KGSO: 80/1975 KGSO: 82/2022
KRDU: 83/2022 KRDU: 84/2022
KFAY: 85/2022 KFAY: 86/2022
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
November 6: November 7: November 8:
KGSO: 65/1938 KGSO: 61/2022 KGSO: 57/1975
KRDU: 65/2022 KRDU: 64/1895
KFAY: 65/2003 KFAY: 65/1946
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Green/Blaes
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC/Blaes
CLIMATE...RAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
535 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through
tonight will produce severe thunderstorms and additional flash
flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with
localized 4 inches are likely area wide.
- There is a Moderate (level 3 of 5) Excessive Rainfall Risk
through tonight for areas southeast of Springfield, and a
Flood Watch is in effect for portions of SE KS and far S MO
until 6am Tuesday due to anticipated rainfall.
- Severe Outlook Tonight: Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk for
portions of southwest Missouri and a Slight (level 2 of 5)
Risk for most of the rest of the Missouri Ozarks. Damaging
winds and tornadoes are the main concern during the 5pm-2am
timeframe. Remain weather aware this evening!
- There is a signal for another active period late week, with
50-70% chance of rain returning Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will be seasonal (in the 60s) from Wednesday
through the end of the week.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Current radar imagery depicts a broken line of sub-severe
thunderstorms across our western forecast area. Current surface
observations analyze a NW-SE oriented warm front/outflow
boundary across Barry County and into N AR. This warm front then
loops back to the NE through the eastern Ozarks. The placement
of this warm front has a rather less-than-unstable air mass
north through much of our area, resulting in of the line of
storms. South of the warm front in east OK and north AR, tornado
producing storms have been observed. A storm in Benton County,
AR crossed the warm front, produced a brief damaging tornado,
and then proceeded to quickly weaken as it moved to the cool
side of the warm front in south MO.
Models have poorly handled how far north the warm front lifts,
largely due to a persistent cold pool across SW MO from early
morning convection. Models still want to lift this warm front
further north, but we are skeptical of this scenario. Wofs models
seem to agree that the favorable tornado environment will not lift
very far north.
As of right now, the focus is east of Highway 65 where the warm
front does drape north across south-central MO. While the
environment is better here, storms have struggled to get going
as much of the synoptic scale forcing is back with the line of
storms in the west. Some storms across N AR are starting to
merge and depicting mid-level rotation. These seem to be the
main focus as they move into a better environment in Ozark,
Douglas, and Howell counties. This will continue to be
monitored.
Bottom line is that if the warm front and favorable environment
can sufficiently be pulled northward, the environment will still
be favorable for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes,
thanks to high amounts of shear with the strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Water vapor showed the upper low spinning east through New
Mexico with southwest flow aloft continuing. Therefore large
scale lift continues with showers and storms continuing across
portions of the area, especially in areas southeast of
Springfield where flash flooding and river flooding is ongoing.
Of concern is the increase in instability which is occuring
mid day from eastern Oklahoma into far southwest Missouri where
satellite shows lots of breaks in the clouds and temps warming
into the upper 60s and lower 70s. ML CAPE values of 500-1000j/kg
have crept up to areas just south of the Missouri/Arkansas
border and will likely continue lifting north. Last few runs of
the Warn on Forecast System shows mean ML CAPE values of
500-1200j/kg lifting as far north as Joplin to Springfield to
Houston by 3-6pm. This combined with 0-6km shear of 50-60kts and
0-1km shear of 25-35kts will allow for organized storms,
perhaps a mixed mode of supercells and line segments. Damaging
winds up to 80mph and tornadoes will be the main concerns with
some potential for significant tornadoes (EF-2+) given the high
shear and enlarged hodographs (latest RAP showing big tor
parameter of 2-3 sneaking into southern Missouri this evening).
If supercells do indeed become more likely than the hail size
may need to be increased (quarter to GOLFBALL). We will be
doing a special upper air sounding this afternoon to assess the
environment further.
The highest potential for these severe storms (already
developing in Oklahoma) is after 3pm with peak intensity during
the 4pm-12am timeframe with a messy transition to a QLCS mode
during the late evening/overnight hours. Exactly where and when
it transitions to linear is uncertain as it could transition as
early as 6-8pm. Regardless, damaging winds and tornadoes will
still be a concern with the line as it moves east.
This will likely be a rapidly evolving severe event late this
afternoon and evening and we encourage everyone to remain
weather aware and have ways to get to a safe location if storms
approach.
Rainfall rates will be very high given the high PW airmass.
Latest HREF MM is showing widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall
with this final round with a few localized 4 inches totals. This
would lead to additional flooding, especially in hard hit areas
Southeast of Springfield and a Moderate risk for excessive
rainfall is now out for those areas southeast of Springfield.
The shortwave trough will pass through during the afternoon with
skies gradually clearing out and temps in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Ensembles suggest that the southwest flow pattern will generally
continue with a quick return by Wednesday as another
disturbance moves into the Rockies. Ensembles begin to diverge
by Thursday as the guidance is split on the trough closing off
and slowing down or ejecting faster east. The majority of
guidance is slower with the upper low moving out therefore rain
chances are currently low for Wednesday and Thursday (10-30%)
and then increasing Friday into Saturday (50-70%). The speed of
this trough will greatly affect precip chances late next week
however chances have increase for Friday and Saturday. Temps
look to remain around average (highs in the 60s).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate this evening as
showers and thunderstorms move into the area. Thunderstorms are
likely through 03z then rain for several hours overnight.
Ceilings and vis will likely bounce around MVFR and IFR at
times. Low level wind shear will start out the period at SGF and
BBG. Winds will switch to the southwest on Tuesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Nov 4 2024
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
November 4:
KSGF: 59/1994
Record Precipitation:
November 4:
KSGF: 2.32/1994
KJLN: 2.16/1994
KVIH: 1.91/1994
KUNO: 2.20/1994
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ066-077-078-082-083-
088>098-101>106.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Price
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
951 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Warmed many overnight lows with line arriving, but cool air
lagging a bit with cooler temps beyond the overnight period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 929 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
KSHV 88D radar is showing most of the earlier discrete activity
washing away with the big push remaining right on our door step.
The HRRR shows this feature pushing slowly across our Four-State
area, and likely beefing up as some of the thunderstorm outflow
from Terrel to near Austin builds the line south of I-20. For the
now the overall shear remains strong with DCAPE on our sounding
up there too over 900J/Kg. The SPC has suggested an extension for
areas to our north until 05Z. And our Tornado watch continues
until midnight for now. So, we will continue to monitor evolution
over the next few hours. The threat for some heavy rain may occur
as well with a mention for such even outside our posted flood
watch area. This is due to the slow movement and potential for
training overnight. Guidance was a little faster for this
afternoon issuance with trends on the HRRR quite reasonable for
whats on paper now and a little warmer linger before CCA can set
up by mid morning. Areas mainly along and east of I-49 have been
warmed a category or two with more early morning steamers showers
not as hefty as a cool pool push arriving, and the HRRR does a
good job with that over our Parishes before daybreak. We will be
updating again in a couple of hours depending on the latest
trends on severe potential overnight. Now that our rainy pattern
has finally arrived, it is a good idea to plug in and battery
back up your NOAA Weather radio as the overnight hours may yet be
active for us. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
The aforementioned cold front responsible for the potential
weather Monday night will gradually lift back to the northwest as
a warm front on Wednesday, bringing with it some additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms for areas south and east of
the I-30 corridor. At the same time, another large upper-level trough
will be digging into the Four Corners region and will be the
source of our next big weather maker. In addition to all this, NHC
has identified what is now Tropical Depression Eighteen just south
of Jamaica. Current track has this moving through the Gulf of
Mexico and towards far southeast Louisiana late this week. The
incoming trough will play a major role in where this potential
storm decides to go so we will need to monitor it. Right now it
appears that the tropical system will not have much of an impact
to our region and that a possible strong to severe weather event
could set up by the weekend. /33/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
An eastward moving frontal boundary moving across the region will
generate periods of strong convection across East TX terminals
this evening and LA/AR terminals around daybreak Tuesday.
Conditions to improve from the west during the day on Tuesday with
IFR ceilings from late tonight through the end of the terminal
forecast period Tuesday 06/00Z. Otherwise, southerly winds 15kts
and gusty tonight to become northwest 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday
afternoon. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 68 72 60 73 / 80 90 50 20
MLU 71 82 64 77 / 30 80 80 50
DEQ 63 69 46 71 / 100 80 10 10
TXK 62 68 53 72 / 90 90 20 10
ELD 68 73 56 72 / 50 90 60 40
TYR 64 70 52 73 / 100 70 10 10
GGG 65 70 52 74 / 90 90 20 10
LFK 67 72 58 78 / 80 90 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ050-051.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Tuesday for OKZ077.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...05