Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/21/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Strong to severe storms are possible throughout the rest of the day
Sunday, mainly focused in eastern and northeastern NM. Flash
flooding is also a threat in areas with repeated rounds of storms
and in areas that have received multiple inches of rain over the
weekend, especially the Roswell area. The storm system causing the
active weather will move out of the area on Monday, giving way to
calm and dry conditions throughout the rest of the week, with
temperatures climbing above late October average.&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
570 dam upper-level low, currently centered over far northeastern
AZ, will bring us another 12 hours or so of active weather.
However, it has finally begun moving definitively toward the
northeast as troughing moving into the Pacific NW kicks the
AZ low out. Models progs in good agreement that its center will be
over east-central Colorado by late morning on Monday. The low
continues pulling up somewhat richer moisture into NM east of the
central mountain chain through this evening. Combined with the
approach of colder temperatures aloft in the core of the low and
associated steepening lapse rates and a 70-80 knot speed max at H25
maintaining deep-layer shear, severe thunderstorms are again a
threat over much of eastern NM until late this evening. Main
threats are large hail up to 2-inches in diameter and wind gusts up
to 50-60 mph, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Despite relatively fast storm motions of 25-35mph, training storms
over the same areas may lead to instances of flash flooding,
especially from over the HPCC burn area eastward toward the Texas
state line. Latest PoP for the hard-hit Roswell area into this
evening is in the 30-40% range. Another storm or two could affect
them, but any additional amounts would most likely be in the 0.25-
0.50 inch range...hopefully low enough to not exacerbate the
flooding situation. Have opted to keep the Chaves County plains,
along with rest of the inherited Flash Flood Watch, intact with no
changes. It is currently set to expire at 9 PM MDT for the HPCC
vicinity and 3 AM for the remainder of eastern NM (except the
Johnson/Raton mesas).
An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Roswell area as
well, and is likely to be extended through much of the daylight
hours until waters recede from last night`s record-breaking rainfall
and roads re-open.
Short-term guidance in good agreement on the remaining convective
and heavy rainfall portion of the forecast. On the winter weather
side, another inch or so of snow may fall on the highest mountain
peaks along the CO border, but impacts should be minimal. One
additional forecast challenge overnight is freeze potential for the
Northwest Plateau, which has yet to see a widespread freeze this
season. NBM deterministic guidance seems to be skewing a bit toward
the warmer side of the distribution, but prob guidance for
Farmington/Aztec dipping below 32F is only around 50%. Some
portions of the zone, for example, Rattlesnake and Shiprock, could
well fall below freezing, but bottom line is that there just isn`t
enough confidence for a widespread freeze warning.
For Monday, skies clear as flattening short-wave ridging aloft moves
in. Should be an overall pleasant fall day, though with max temps 5-
10 degrees below normal across much of the state. Did nudge
guidance temps down a bit over Chaves and DeBaca counties due to
very wet soils there. Westerly component of the winds leads to some
breeziness in the lee of the central mountains, especially in
typically enhanced spots such as Clines Corners. Quiet weather
continues Monday night, with low temps within a few degrees of
seasonal norms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
570 dam upper-level low, currently centered over far northeastern
AZ, will bring us another 12 hours or so of active weather.
However, it has finally begun moving definitively toward the
northeast as troughing moving into the Pacific NW kicks the
AZ low out. Models progs in good agreement that its center will be
over east-central Colorado by late morning on Monday. The low
continues pulling up somewhat richer moisture into NM east of the
central mountain chain through this evening. Combined with the
approach of colder temperatures aloft in the core of the low and
associated steepening lapse rates and a 70-80 knot speed max at H25
maintaining deep-layer shear, severe thunderstorms are again a
threat over much of eastern NM until late this evening. Main
threats are large hail up to 2-inches in diameter and wind gusts up
to 50-60 mph, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Despite relatively fast storm motions of 25-35mph, training storms
over the same areas may lead to instances of flash flooding,
especially from over the HPCC burn area eastward toward the Texas
state line. Latest PoP for the hard-hit Roswell area into this
evening is in the 30-40% range. Another storm or two could affect
them, but any additional amounts would most likely be in the 0.25-
0.50 inch range...hopefully low enough to not exacerbate the
flooding situation. Have opted to keep the Chaves County plains,
along with rest of the inherited Flash Flood Watch, intact with no
changes. It is currently set to expire at 9 PM MDT for the HPCC
vicinity and 3 AM for the remainder of eastern NM (except the
Johnson/Raton mesas).
An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Roswell area as
well, and is likely to be extended through much of the daylight
hours until waters recede from last night`s record-breaking rainfall
and roads re-open.
Short-term guidance in good agreement on the remaining convective
and heavy rainfall portion of the forecast. On the winter weather
side, another inch or so of snow may fall on the highest mountain
peaks along the CO border, but impacts should be minimal. One
additional forecast challenge overnight is freeze potential for the
Northwest Plateau, which has yet to see a widespread freeze this
season. NBM deterministic guidance seems to be skewing a bit toward
the warmer side of the distribution, but prob guidance for
Farmington/Aztec dipping below 32F is only around 50%. Some
portions of the zone, for example, Rattlesnake and Shiprock, could
well fall below freezing, but bottom line is that there just isn`t
enough confidence for a widespread freeze warning.
For Monday, skies clear as flattening short-wave ridging aloft moves
in. Should be an overall pleasant fall day, though with max temps 5-
10 degrees below normal across much of the state. Did nudge
guidance temps down a bit over Chaves and DeBaca counties due to
very wet soils there. Westerly component of the winds leads to some
breeziness in the lee of the central mountains, especially in
typically enhanced spots such as Clines Corners. Quiet weather
continues Monday night, with low temps within a few degrees of
seasonal norms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Quiet weather will persist throughout the week and into the weekend.
A 592-594dm 500mb high will park itself right over the Baja
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday and will work to
increase pressure heights over NM later into the week. Because of
the higher heights, temperatures will be well above average for the
extended forecast period, with consistent readings at 5-10F above
climatology for late October. Our only source of deviation from this
calm pattern is a weak backdoor front forecast to slide down the
western Plains and into northeast NM Wednesday afternoon and
evening, though no precipitation will be associated with it.
Overall, a calm week and weekend is expected throughout the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
VFR is expected to prevail for terminals along and west of the
Rio Grande for the next 24 hours, with moderate-to-high (70-80%)
confidence. Meanwhile, gusty southerly winds have developed at
KABQ/KAEG just ahead of a Pacific cold front/pre-frontal trough,
which earlier necessitated the issuance of an Airport Weather
Warning at KABQ. These southerly winds should trend down as the
boundary approaches and time nears sunset. TEMPO groups for
convection retained at KSAF/KLVS in tune with latest HRRR run.
Activity should become more sporadic once the front passes those
terminals. Short-term guidance also picking up on low-level wind
shear developing in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
after 06Z, as stronger winds at the base of an upper-level trough
pass over, so have included this for KLVS. KTCC METAR is not
transmitting, but it is the most likely site to experience strong
to severe thunderstorms with wind gusts up to 50 knots and large
hail, though probability too low to mention specifically in TAF.
Lower confidence (30-40%) in direct impact from storms at KROW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next seven
days. As the current fall storm system moves out, drier air filters
in, especially over the southwest mountains, where daily minimum
relative humidity values fall to around 20 percent, beginning
as soon as Monday afternoon. However, 20-foot wind speeds are
forecast to remain below 10 mph in this area. Fine fuels over the
eastern plains should show some green-up this week after widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 34 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 26 59 22 67 / 30 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 29 59 32 67 / 10 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 24 64 24 69 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 29 62 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 27 66 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 29 66 31 73 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 37 67 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 31 66 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 28 75 29 78 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 40 77 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 26 55 27 63 / 50 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 37 59 42 65 / 50 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 35 60 39 67 / 70 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 31 57 34 64 / 80 0 0 0
Red River....................... 26 48 29 57 / 70 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 27 52 15 62 / 70 0 0 0
Taos............................ 30 60 28 66 / 70 0 0 0
Mora............................ 29 60 32 68 / 70 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 34 66 33 71 / 60 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 37 59 41 65 / 70 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 35 62 36 67 / 50 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 66 46 71 / 20 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 40 67 42 72 / 10 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 69 39 74 / 10 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 68 42 72 / 10 0 0 0
Belen........................... 37 69 35 73 / 10 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 39 69 40 73 / 20 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 35 68 34 73 / 10 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 39 69 40 73 / 20 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 37 68 36 73 / 10 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 41 65 44 69 / 20 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 40 68 42 72 / 20 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 42 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 60 38 65 / 20 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 37 62 41 68 / 20 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 32 64 32 69 / 20 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 28 64 26 70 / 20 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 35 61 37 67 / 40 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 34 65 36 71 / 10 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 36 65 36 72 / 10 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 44 71 44 76 / 5 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 42 67 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 38 62 39 67 / 80 0 0 0
Raton........................... 35 67 34 71 / 60 0 0 0
Springer........................ 35 68 32 71 / 60 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 35 66 35 70 / 70 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 50 70 46 74 / 80 0 0 0
Roy............................. 42 66 39 69 / 90 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 47 72 40 73 / 80 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 44 66 41 71 / 70 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 51 73 41 76 / 80 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 57 76 47 79 / 70 5 0 0
Portales........................ 58 77 47 79 / 60 5 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 52 71 42 76 / 80 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 58 77 48 81 / 40 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 46 77 45 78 / 20 0 0 0
Elk............................. 45 78 42 80 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Monday for NMZ228>238.
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Largely dry and warm conditions today, with afternoon highs in
the 70s to near 80.
- Widespread precipitation likely overnight into tomorrow, along
with a chance for severe thunderstorms behind the initial
round. Although, storm coverage concerns exist.
- A dry and warm pattern will re-establish Tuesday through the
end of the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Latest water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis trends
indicate the powerful cut-off low centered over northeastern AZ
is beginning to advance northeastward as an associated mid-level
jet streak is rounding its eastern periphery. Progress of this
wave will be slow at first, and it will only reach the Four
Corners by 00Z tonight. As a result, southwest KS will have to
wait to feel its effects as daytime Sunday will be largely dry
with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s/near 80. Overnight,
continued height falls just to the northeast of the wave will
allow it to open, supporting increasing forward speed. As
forcing for ascent increases ahead of this feature, light to
moderate rain showers within the system`s warm conveyor belt will
spread eastward over southwest KS, beginning around midnight
Monday morning out west and sweeping across our area through the
day Monday. A few embedded thunderstorms appear possible as well
given at least 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE, especially during the late
morning and early afternoon over the eastern half of our CWA.
Unfortunately, precipitation totals from the NBM and various
ensembles have decreased compared to this time yesterday, now
suggesting a blanket 0.1-0.3" of QPF across the area, with
locally higher amounts wherever convective elements develop.
Behind this initial wave of showers and weak thunderstorms,
convective redevelopment is possible during the mid-afternoon
along and east of US-283 as clearing and mid-level cold
advection contribute to destabilization to around 1000-1500 J/Kg
of MLCAPE. Strong mid- level flow will be in place as well
ahead of the ejecting trough, yielding plenty of 0-6km shear for
organized updrafts. Backing of the low-level wind field will
also enlarge low-level hodographs and combine with the other
factors to foster an environment supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. That said,
uncertainty regarding convective coverage remains, as HREF
members all show varying degrees of initiation. The Storm
Prediction Center has roughly the eastern half of our area
within a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5), which appears sufficient
to capture the severe thunderstorm risk amidst the coverage
concerns.
In the wake of the upper level trough on Tuesday, all ensembles
all agree 850-mb temperatures will warm appreciably in the
subsident regime, which will translate to well above normal
temperatures during the afternoon with highs in the low to mid
80s. However, this warm up will be short lived as a deepening
longwave trough over the northeast CONUS/eastern Canada sends a
strong but dry cold front southward through the central plains
Wednesday morning, knocking afternoon highs back down into the
70s. Thursday through the end of the forecast period, generally
dry and above normal temperatures are expected in the absence of
any noteworthy synoptic features.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
An upper level storm system will move out of the Rockies tonight
and into the central plains on Monday. Thunderstorms are
expected to move out of eastern Colorado and move through
western Kansas after 06Z. VCTS and rain showers for GCK and LBL
between 09-15Z and for DDC and HYS between 12-19Z. Cloud
ceilings with the rain could also drop ceilings into the MVFR
range during these times. Winds will stay breezy during the time
period at 12-22 kts sustained and wind gusts at 30-35 kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
951 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower/thunderstorm gradually increase tonight through the day
Monday.
- Severe weather potential exists during the day with all modes
of severe weather possible, mainly east of the Colorado/Kansas
border.
- Dry and warm Tuesday through Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Noticing a slight northward nudge with the low pressure system
as it enters SW Colorado. Have been noticing that the last few
runs of the HRRR have trended precipitation tonight a bit
further north, which it may be a part of this slight northern
positioning of the low. The RAP however has been keeping the
best mid level moisture a little further south than the HRRR
reflectivity which may be due to the RAP having some dry air
that needs to be overcome around 1000-4000`AGL. Due to the
discrepancies between this will leave pops where I inherited
them.
Recent runs of the SSCRAM as well do indicate there may be a
low end severe threat overnight primarily across SW portions of
the area as storms move into the area from NE New Mexico/SW
Colorado. A narrow plum of slightly better MUCAPE around
1000-1200 j/kg is being picked up by the HRRR and the RAP
overnight along with 35-40 knots of effective shear and mid
level lapse rates around 7.5 C/KM. Given that there may be
multiple updrafts present am thinking that the largest hail may
only be around quarter size should it occur.
As for tomorrow, the forecast remains on track as well with the
relative better area for severe weather to lie along and east of
Highway 25. We will need to be aware however of any shifts in
the path of the low as a further N/W track would increase the
severe weather potential and a further S/E track would limit the
coverage and perhaps remove the CWA from any severe potential.
Based on recent RAP soundings, all hazards remain on the table.
The tornado threat is there given the proximity of the low and
as a result strong 0-3 and 0-1 SRH values and 3CAPE nearing
100-150 j/kg. Hail up to golf balls is also possible given
favorable 0-6 EBWD but the LCL-EL shear however is lacking which
may limit how large the hail may get.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Tonight...an upper level low pressure area over the four corners
area this afternoon is forecast toward the Limon, Colorado area
tonight. Increasing favorable moisture from the surface to 500mb is
forecast to reach the extreme southwestern part of the area early
this evening, continuing northeast overnight. Rainfall chances are
generally 15%-30% across far eastern Colorado with slightly better
chances (20%-50%) across the remainder of the area where the
moisture profile and lift is better. Breezy southerly winds will
continue, generally west of Highway 27.
Monday-Monday night...the closed compact upper low is forecast to
move over the western part of the forecast area by 18z, continuing
northeast into south central Nebraska by 00z then into Iowa
overnight.
Slight chance to likely pops (20%-70%) are forecast for
showers/thunderstorms in the morning with 20%-50% chances in
the afternoon. Dry weather is forecast overnight.
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast from late
morning through the afternoon for locations ahead of the upper low,
generally from Hitchcock county to Thomas county and Gove county
east. This area will be under favorable moisture, lift and
instability. Steep lapse rates from cold air within the upper low
will favor a large hail threat with a tornado threat across the
eastern parts of the area due to a favorable wind profile.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to middle 70s
with low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
Tuesday-Tuesday night...zonal flow during the day slowly becomes
northwesterly. There looks to be some breezy northwest winds from
mid morning through early afternoon as the storm moves away. High
temperatures rise into the middle 70s to lower 80s with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Wednesday-Wednesday night...a backdoor cold front moves through the
area, lowering 850mb temperatures about 10F to 15F when compared to
Tuesday. A blend of 850mb temperatures and the better performing
temperature guidance supports highs close to the NBM forecast in the
65 to 70 degree range. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
middle 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
On Thursday, guidance has risen quite a bit compared to 24 hours ago
regarding high temperatures. The 12Z GFS 850mb temperatures are
about 8C warmer than the GEM/ECMWF models. GEFS 2m temperatures are
in the lower 70s while the NBM is in the middle 70s. DESI showing
rather low spread in the 75th-25th percentile with a mean high
temperatures near the NBM which is what we`ll go with today.
Low temperatures fall into the middle 30s to lower 40s.
Friday, above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 75 to
80 degree range lower 70s to around 80. DESI is showing a bit more
spread in the 75th-25th percentile for highs with the mean a few
degrees either side of the NBM forecast highs. GFS 850mb
temperatures are about 4C warmer compared to the ECMWF and even more
when compared to the GEM model. Low temperatures will be in the
40s.
On Saturday, we`re currently forecast to have highs in the upper 60s
to middle 70s. DESI 75th-25th percentile highs range from the middle
60s to lower 80s. GFS/ECMWF 850mb temperatures are closer to each
other in the 17C to 22C range, supportive of highs much warmer
than currently forecast under typical mixing. Given the wide
variety of potential temperatures, will stay with the NBM today.
Low temperatures fall into the middle to upper 30s.
Sunday, another generally sunny day with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with low temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s.
GFS/GEM/ECMWF 850mb temperatures all show values in the 18C to 21C
which would support warmer temperatures than currently forecast.
With DESI showing mean high temperatures close to the NBM, wont make
any changes at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 946 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Showers and perhaps some storms along with cloud cover will
continue to stream towards the area reaching KGLD around 07Z and
KMCK around 10Z. Did continue with VCSH for each terminal as RAP
mid level moisture and latest runs of CAM aren`t really agreeing
on the coverage of the rainfall. Based on current radar
observations however confidence was high enough to put in VC
mention. A low will continue to work towards the area where a
period of stratus is forecasted to impact each terminal through
the morning hours at KGLD and KMCK. Another round of potential
rainfall is forecasted in the vicinity of each terminal. The
overall coverage however is dependent on the position of the low
so will leave out for now. LLWS is occurring at each terminal as
well as a LLJ increases.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Trigg