Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/21/24


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Strong to severe storms are possible throughout the rest of the day Sunday, mainly focused in eastern and northeastern NM. Flash flooding is also a threat in areas with repeated rounds of storms and in areas that have received multiple inches of rain over the weekend, especially the Roswell area. The storm system causing the active weather will move out of the area on Monday, giving way to calm and dry conditions throughout the rest of the week, with temperatures climbing above late October average.&& .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 570 dam upper-level low, currently centered over far northeastern AZ, will bring us another 12 hours or so of active weather. However, it has finally begun moving definitively toward the northeast as troughing moving into the Pacific NW kicks the AZ low out. Models progs in good agreement that its center will be over east-central Colorado by late morning on Monday. The low continues pulling up somewhat richer moisture into NM east of the central mountain chain through this evening. Combined with the approach of colder temperatures aloft in the core of the low and associated steepening lapse rates and a 70-80 knot speed max at H25 maintaining deep-layer shear, severe thunderstorms are again a threat over much of eastern NM until late this evening. Main threats are large hail up to 2-inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 50-60 mph, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Despite relatively fast storm motions of 25-35mph, training storms over the same areas may lead to instances of flash flooding, especially from over the HPCC burn area eastward toward the Texas state line. Latest PoP for the hard-hit Roswell area into this evening is in the 30-40% range. Another storm or two could affect them, but any additional amounts would most likely be in the 0.25- 0.50 inch range...hopefully low enough to not exacerbate the flooding situation. Have opted to keep the Chaves County plains, along with rest of the inherited Flash Flood Watch, intact with no changes. It is currently set to expire at 9 PM MDT for the HPCC vicinity and 3 AM for the remainder of eastern NM (except the Johnson/Raton mesas). An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Roswell area as well, and is likely to be extended through much of the daylight hours until waters recede from last night`s record-breaking rainfall and roads re-open. Short-term guidance in good agreement on the remaining convective and heavy rainfall portion of the forecast. On the winter weather side, another inch or so of snow may fall on the highest mountain peaks along the CO border, but impacts should be minimal. One additional forecast challenge overnight is freeze potential for the Northwest Plateau, which has yet to see a widespread freeze this season. NBM deterministic guidance seems to be skewing a bit toward the warmer side of the distribution, but prob guidance for Farmington/Aztec dipping below 32F is only around 50%. Some portions of the zone, for example, Rattlesnake and Shiprock, could well fall below freezing, but bottom line is that there just isn`t enough confidence for a widespread freeze warning. For Monday, skies clear as flattening short-wave ridging aloft moves in. Should be an overall pleasant fall day, though with max temps 5- 10 degrees below normal across much of the state. Did nudge guidance temps down a bit over Chaves and DeBaca counties due to very wet soils there. Westerly component of the winds leads to some breeziness in the lee of the central mountains, especially in typically enhanced spots such as Clines Corners. Quiet weather continues Monday night, with low temps within a few degrees of seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 570 dam upper-level low, currently centered over far northeastern AZ, will bring us another 12 hours or so of active weather. However, it has finally begun moving definitively toward the northeast as troughing moving into the Pacific NW kicks the AZ low out. Models progs in good agreement that its center will be over east-central Colorado by late morning on Monday. The low continues pulling up somewhat richer moisture into NM east of the central mountain chain through this evening. Combined with the approach of colder temperatures aloft in the core of the low and associated steepening lapse rates and a 70-80 knot speed max at H25 maintaining deep-layer shear, severe thunderstorms are again a threat over much of eastern NM until late this evening. Main threats are large hail up to 2-inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 50-60 mph, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Despite relatively fast storm motions of 25-35mph, training storms over the same areas may lead to instances of flash flooding, especially from over the HPCC burn area eastward toward the Texas state line. Latest PoP for the hard-hit Roswell area into this evening is in the 30-40% range. Another storm or two could affect them, but any additional amounts would most likely be in the 0.25- 0.50 inch range...hopefully low enough to not exacerbate the flooding situation. Have opted to keep the Chaves County plains, along with rest of the inherited Flash Flood Watch, intact with no changes. It is currently set to expire at 9 PM MDT for the HPCC vicinity and 3 AM for the remainder of eastern NM (except the Johnson/Raton mesas). An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Roswell area as well, and is likely to be extended through much of the daylight hours until waters recede from last night`s record-breaking rainfall and roads re-open. Short-term guidance in good agreement on the remaining convective and heavy rainfall portion of the forecast. On the winter weather side, another inch or so of snow may fall on the highest mountain peaks along the CO border, but impacts should be minimal. One additional forecast challenge overnight is freeze potential for the Northwest Plateau, which has yet to see a widespread freeze this season. NBM deterministic guidance seems to be skewing a bit toward the warmer side of the distribution, but prob guidance for Farmington/Aztec dipping below 32F is only around 50%. Some portions of the zone, for example, Rattlesnake and Shiprock, could well fall below freezing, but bottom line is that there just isn`t enough confidence for a widespread freeze warning. For Monday, skies clear as flattening short-wave ridging aloft moves in. Should be an overall pleasant fall day, though with max temps 5- 10 degrees below normal across much of the state. Did nudge guidance temps down a bit over Chaves and DeBaca counties due to very wet soils there. Westerly component of the winds leads to some breeziness in the lee of the central mountains, especially in typically enhanced spots such as Clines Corners. Quiet weather continues Monday night, with low temps within a few degrees of seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Quiet weather will persist throughout the week and into the weekend. A 592-594dm 500mb high will park itself right over the Baja Peninsula beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday and will work to increase pressure heights over NM later into the week. Because of the higher heights, temperatures will be well above average for the extended forecast period, with consistent readings at 5-10F above climatology for late October. Our only source of deviation from this calm pattern is a weak backdoor front forecast to slide down the western Plains and into northeast NM Wednesday afternoon and evening, though no precipitation will be associated with it. Overall, a calm week and weekend is expected throughout the state. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 VFR is expected to prevail for terminals along and west of the Rio Grande for the next 24 hours, with moderate-to-high (70-80%) confidence. Meanwhile, gusty southerly winds have developed at KABQ/KAEG just ahead of a Pacific cold front/pre-frontal trough, which earlier necessitated the issuance of an Airport Weather Warning at KABQ. These southerly winds should trend down as the boundary approaches and time nears sunset. TEMPO groups for convection retained at KSAF/KLVS in tune with latest HRRR run. Activity should become more sporadic once the front passes those terminals. Short-term guidance also picking up on low-level wind shear developing in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains after 06Z, as stronger winds at the base of an upper-level trough pass over, so have included this for KLVS. KTCC METAR is not transmitting, but it is the most likely site to experience strong to severe thunderstorms with wind gusts up to 50 knots and large hail, though probability too low to mention specifically in TAF. Lower confidence (30-40%) in direct impact from storms at KROW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 347 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next seven days. As the current fall storm system moves out, drier air filters in, especially over the southwest mountains, where daily minimum relative humidity values fall to around 20 percent, beginning as soon as Monday afternoon. However, 20-foot wind speeds are forecast to remain below 10 mph in this area. Fine fuels over the eastern plains should show some green-up this week after widespread moderate to heavy rainfall this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 34 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 59 22 67 / 30 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 29 59 32 67 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 24 64 24 69 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 29 62 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 27 66 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 29 66 31 73 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 37 67 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 31 66 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 75 29 78 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 40 77 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 26 55 27 63 / 50 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 59 42 65 / 50 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 60 39 67 / 70 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 57 34 64 / 80 0 0 0 Red River....................... 26 48 29 57 / 70 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 27 52 15 62 / 70 0 0 0 Taos............................ 30 60 28 66 / 70 0 0 0 Mora............................ 29 60 32 68 / 70 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 34 66 33 71 / 60 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 37 59 41 65 / 70 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 62 36 67 / 50 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 66 46 71 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 40 67 42 72 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 69 39 74 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 68 42 72 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 37 69 35 73 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 39 69 40 73 / 20 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 35 68 34 73 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 39 69 40 73 / 20 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 37 68 36 73 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 65 44 69 / 20 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 40 68 42 72 / 20 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 42 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 60 38 65 / 20 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 37 62 41 68 / 20 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 32 64 32 69 / 20 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 28 64 26 70 / 20 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 61 37 67 / 40 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 34 65 36 71 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 65 36 72 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 44 71 44 76 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 42 67 43 72 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 38 62 39 67 / 80 0 0 0 Raton........................... 35 67 34 71 / 60 0 0 0 Springer........................ 35 68 32 71 / 60 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 66 35 70 / 70 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 50 70 46 74 / 80 0 0 0 Roy............................. 42 66 39 69 / 90 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 47 72 40 73 / 80 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 44 66 41 71 / 70 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 73 41 76 / 80 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 57 76 47 79 / 70 5 0 0 Portales........................ 58 77 47 79 / 60 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 71 42 76 / 80 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 58 77 48 81 / 40 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 77 45 78 / 20 0 0 0 Elk............................. 45 78 42 80 / 20 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Monday for NMZ228>238. Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Largely dry and warm conditions today, with afternoon highs in the 70s to near 80. - Widespread precipitation likely overnight into tomorrow, along with a chance for severe thunderstorms behind the initial round. Although, storm coverage concerns exist. - A dry and warm pattern will re-establish Tuesday through the end of the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Latest water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis trends indicate the powerful cut-off low centered over northeastern AZ is beginning to advance northeastward as an associated mid-level jet streak is rounding its eastern periphery. Progress of this wave will be slow at first, and it will only reach the Four Corners by 00Z tonight. As a result, southwest KS will have to wait to feel its effects as daytime Sunday will be largely dry with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s/near 80. Overnight, continued height falls just to the northeast of the wave will allow it to open, supporting increasing forward speed. As forcing for ascent increases ahead of this feature, light to moderate rain showers within the system`s warm conveyor belt will spread eastward over southwest KS, beginning around midnight Monday morning out west and sweeping across our area through the day Monday. A few embedded thunderstorms appear possible as well given at least 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE, especially during the late morning and early afternoon over the eastern half of our CWA. Unfortunately, precipitation totals from the NBM and various ensembles have decreased compared to this time yesterday, now suggesting a blanket 0.1-0.3" of QPF across the area, with locally higher amounts wherever convective elements develop. Behind this initial wave of showers and weak thunderstorms, convective redevelopment is possible during the mid-afternoon along and east of US-283 as clearing and mid-level cold advection contribute to destabilization to around 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE. Strong mid- level flow will be in place as well ahead of the ejecting trough, yielding plenty of 0-6km shear for organized updrafts. Backing of the low-level wind field will also enlarge low-level hodographs and combine with the other factors to foster an environment supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. That said, uncertainty regarding convective coverage remains, as HREF members all show varying degrees of initiation. The Storm Prediction Center has roughly the eastern half of our area within a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5), which appears sufficient to capture the severe thunderstorm risk amidst the coverage concerns. In the wake of the upper level trough on Tuesday, all ensembles all agree 850-mb temperatures will warm appreciably in the subsident regime, which will translate to well above normal temperatures during the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s. However, this warm up will be short lived as a deepening longwave trough over the northeast CONUS/eastern Canada sends a strong but dry cold front southward through the central plains Wednesday morning, knocking afternoon highs back down into the 70s. Thursday through the end of the forecast period, generally dry and above normal temperatures are expected in the absence of any noteworthy synoptic features. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 An upper level storm system will move out of the Rockies tonight and into the central plains on Monday. Thunderstorms are expected to move out of eastern Colorado and move through western Kansas after 06Z. VCTS and rain showers for GCK and LBL between 09-15Z and for DDC and HYS between 12-19Z. Cloud ceilings with the rain could also drop ceilings into the MVFR range during these times. Winds will stay breezy during the time period at 12-22 kts sustained and wind gusts at 30-35 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
951 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower/thunderstorm gradually increase tonight through the day Monday. - Severe weather potential exists during the day with all modes of severe weather possible, mainly east of the Colorado/Kansas border. - Dry and warm Tuesday through Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 639 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Noticing a slight northward nudge with the low pressure system as it enters SW Colorado. Have been noticing that the last few runs of the HRRR have trended precipitation tonight a bit further north, which it may be a part of this slight northern positioning of the low. The RAP however has been keeping the best mid level moisture a little further south than the HRRR reflectivity which may be due to the RAP having some dry air that needs to be overcome around 1000-4000`AGL. Due to the discrepancies between this will leave pops where I inherited them. Recent runs of the SSCRAM as well do indicate there may be a low end severe threat overnight primarily across SW portions of the area as storms move into the area from NE New Mexico/SW Colorado. A narrow plum of slightly better MUCAPE around 1000-1200 j/kg is being picked up by the HRRR and the RAP overnight along with 35-40 knots of effective shear and mid level lapse rates around 7.5 C/KM. Given that there may be multiple updrafts present am thinking that the largest hail may only be around quarter size should it occur. As for tomorrow, the forecast remains on track as well with the relative better area for severe weather to lie along and east of Highway 25. We will need to be aware however of any shifts in the path of the low as a further N/W track would increase the severe weather potential and a further S/E track would limit the coverage and perhaps remove the CWA from any severe potential. Based on recent RAP soundings, all hazards remain on the table. The tornado threat is there given the proximity of the low and as a result strong 0-3 and 0-1 SRH values and 3CAPE nearing 100-150 j/kg. Hail up to golf balls is also possible given favorable 0-6 EBWD but the LCL-EL shear however is lacking which may limit how large the hail may get. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Tonight...an upper level low pressure area over the four corners area this afternoon is forecast toward the Limon, Colorado area tonight. Increasing favorable moisture from the surface to 500mb is forecast to reach the extreme southwestern part of the area early this evening, continuing northeast overnight. Rainfall chances are generally 15%-30% across far eastern Colorado with slightly better chances (20%-50%) across the remainder of the area where the moisture profile and lift is better. Breezy southerly winds will continue, generally west of Highway 27. Monday-Monday night...the closed compact upper low is forecast to move over the western part of the forecast area by 18z, continuing northeast into south central Nebraska by 00z then into Iowa overnight. Slight chance to likely pops (20%-70%) are forecast for showers/thunderstorms in the morning with 20%-50% chances in the afternoon. Dry weather is forecast overnight. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast from late morning through the afternoon for locations ahead of the upper low, generally from Hitchcock county to Thomas county and Gove county east. This area will be under favorable moisture, lift and instability. Steep lapse rates from cold air within the upper low will favor a large hail threat with a tornado threat across the eastern parts of the area due to a favorable wind profile. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to middle 70s with low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 50s. Tuesday-Tuesday night...zonal flow during the day slowly becomes northwesterly. There looks to be some breezy northwest winds from mid morning through early afternoon as the storm moves away. High temperatures rise into the middle 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Wednesday-Wednesday night...a backdoor cold front moves through the area, lowering 850mb temperatures about 10F to 15F when compared to Tuesday. A blend of 850mb temperatures and the better performing temperature guidance supports highs close to the NBM forecast in the 65 to 70 degree range. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 On Thursday, guidance has risen quite a bit compared to 24 hours ago regarding high temperatures. The 12Z GFS 850mb temperatures are about 8C warmer than the GEM/ECMWF models. GEFS 2m temperatures are in the lower 70s while the NBM is in the middle 70s. DESI showing rather low spread in the 75th-25th percentile with a mean high temperatures near the NBM which is what we`ll go with today. Low temperatures fall into the middle 30s to lower 40s. Friday, above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 75 to 80 degree range lower 70s to around 80. DESI is showing a bit more spread in the 75th-25th percentile for highs with the mean a few degrees either side of the NBM forecast highs. GFS 850mb temperatures are about 4C warmer compared to the ECMWF and even more when compared to the GEM model. Low temperatures will be in the 40s. On Saturday, we`re currently forecast to have highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. DESI 75th-25th percentile highs range from the middle 60s to lower 80s. GFS/ECMWF 850mb temperatures are closer to each other in the 17C to 22C range, supportive of highs much warmer than currently forecast under typical mixing. Given the wide variety of potential temperatures, will stay with the NBM today. Low temperatures fall into the middle to upper 30s. Sunday, another generally sunny day with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s with low temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s. GFS/GEM/ECMWF 850mb temperatures all show values in the 18C to 21C which would support warmer temperatures than currently forecast. With DESI showing mean high temperatures close to the NBM, wont make any changes at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 946 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Showers and perhaps some storms along with cloud cover will continue to stream towards the area reaching KGLD around 07Z and KMCK around 10Z. Did continue with VCSH for each terminal as RAP mid level moisture and latest runs of CAM aren`t really agreeing on the coverage of the rainfall. Based on current radar observations however confidence was high enough to put in VC mention. A low will continue to work towards the area where a period of stratus is forecasted to impact each terminal through the morning hours at KGLD and KMCK. Another round of potential rainfall is forecasted in the vicinity of each terminal. The overall coverage however is dependent on the position of the low so will leave out for now. LLWS is occurring at each terminal as well as a LLJ increases. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...Trigg