Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/20/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered light rain showers are likely today, but will not
amount to much QPF.
- More widespread and higher precipitation totals expected
Monday as precipitation sweeps across the area early Monday
morning through the evening.
- Dry, generally warm conditions Tuesday through the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveal a rather amplified synoptic pattern is in place over the
CONUS, with a strong, cut-off low centered near Phoenix, AZ,
and longwave ridging extending from the ArkLaTex region through
New England. Ahead of the southwestern upper low, scattered
light rain showers have developed south and west of Dodge City,
propagating north. Unfortunately for southwest KS, the cut-off
nature of the low will not foster much eastward progression,
resulting in little support for expansion of precipitation. This
is reflected in HREF probability of QPF > 0.1" at 30% or less
for all zones through this evening. Otherwise, scattered to
overcast clouds and modest southerly winds will support
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s near the KS/CO border
to the mid 70s in central KS.
Daytime Sunday, short range ensembles agree the cut-off low will
begin to open, allowing the wave to advance northeastward,
albeit slightly at first, as the mid-level jet streak rounds the
base of the trough and ejects into its eastern periphery. That
said, southwest KS will have to wait another day to reap the
benefits as Sunday will be largely dry with afternoon highs in
the 70s. Sunday evening into the overnight period, the upper
wave will finally make some appreciable progress, and eject onto
the central plains daytime Monday. Precipitation within the
system`s warm conveyor belt will sweep across southwest KS,
beginning around midnight Monday morning over our western zones
and ending over our eastern zones Monday evening. Residence time
within precipitation will not be ideal, generally in the 6-9
hours range, and therefore total accumulated QPF will not be
significant as the latest NBM indicates generally 0.3-0.7" of
QPF, with a few pockets of 0.8-0.9".
In the wake of the departing upper level trough on Tuesday,
medium range ensembles show strong warming at 850-mb, which will
translate to well-above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon as
highs soar into the low to mid 80s. This warmth will be short-
lived however as an amplifying upper trough over the northeast
CONUS/eastern Canada sends a strong but dry cold front
southward through our area on Wednesday. Towards the end of the
week, ensemble guidance suggests weak longwave ridging will
build west of the Rockies, yielding increasing temperatures and
continued dry conditions into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
A stationary front was positioned across central Nebraska, into
west central Kansas to southeast Colorado. Radar has been clear
across the area late this afternoon despite a few isolated
showers earlier. The trend remains for any precipitation to
remains west of the area in the north east NM region, including
any deterioration in the ceilings though the next 18 to 21
hours. Chances for deteriorating ceilings in rain and
thunderstorms increases beyond this TAF cycle (heading into mid
Sunday afternoon into the evening). HREF Probabilistic low
layer cloud cover mean indicates about a 20% chance of low cloud
cover west of Liberal on Sunday, so impacts are unlikely. These
south winds remains typical in the 10 to 15 mph area with gusts
commonly 15 to 20 through the period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Based on the continued presence of surface high pressure to our
north reinforcing the dry air mass in our region, light winds and
clear skies will promote ideal radiational cooling conditions
tonight. Temperatures have been falling quickly this evening, and
once again anticipate temps to settle in the lower to mid 40s at
most locations by early tomorrow morning. A few sheltered, low-
lying areas could see lows in the upper 30s. As an upper-level
ridge remains in place over the Gulf Coast, the core of the mid-
level ridge will pivot westward over our region tomorrow and
enhance subsidence. Forecast guidance show adiabatic descent from
the north as this ridge pivots overhead. HRRR guidance is on the
extreme dry end as is typical, with dew points bottoming out
around 30 degrees in the Pine Belt. This would require some solid
mixing to achieve and maintain this, but values down into the mid
30s supported by the CMC and LAMP guidance align well with the
NBM 10th percentile values. Updated the dew points to match this,
and also nudged the daytime highs 1-3 degrees higher to account
for subsidence. /NF/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
High pressure remains in place through the week, so no big changes
expected to the forecast, overall it was good. Turned out to be a
nice day to be outside with generally clear skies, a light breeze
and highs around 80 for much of the area.
Some drier air may mix into the area Sunday through Tuesday and
lead to some lower dewpoint/RH values. Models continue to show
some drier air moving around the upper ridge from Canada. Stuck
with guidance for now, although the drier air isn`t represented.
Surface Winds were out of the southeast for a few hours this
afternoon although they were expected to be easterly. Subtle
changes in the speed and direction could lead to more persistent
values, basically lower to mid 40s and slightly higher humidity
values into early next week.
By mid week, the low pressure system and cold front bringing
storms to the plains will move into the upper midwest. The
dominant upper ridge keeps the system out of the area, but some
clouds and moisture may approach the ARKLAMS by midweek. The
boundary stalls just north of the area, so some small rain
chances may develop later in the week for areas north of I-20.
It`s still kinda early.
Above normal afternoon temperatures can be expected with generally
dry conditions continuing. Highs in the lower to mid 80s are
likely. Overnight lows may be slightly cooler(lower to mid 40s)
for the same reasons through Tuesday/Wednesday, dry conditions and
generally clear skies. Lows will slowly warm to normal by late
week, with values in the lower to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
VFR conditions and wind generally from the northeast at 5-10 kts
will prevail through the TAF period. /NF/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 45 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 41 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 43 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 44 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 46 80 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 41 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 43 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
07/06
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Current water vapor shows an upper low slowly moving into the area
across Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Broad ascent, coupled
with abundant low level moisture brought in by brisk southeasterly
flow, and added instability from daytime heating will allow for
showers and storms to develop across southeast New Mexico and parts
of West Texas. RAP forecast soundings over Eddy and Lea counties
show MLCAPE around 1000J/kg with lapse rates around 7C/km and
effective shear between 35-40kts. Given the amount of shear,
discrete supercells look to develop this afternoon and congeal
into a line tonight with storms that form north of the area. With
these parameters, severe hail(>1"), damaging winds, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the most organized storms. Have
multiple ways to receive warnings and stay weather aware,
especially after sunset.
Storms that develop this afternoon will mostly move south to north
with a slight eastward component to their direction. Any activity
that develops gradually moves out of the area and decays after
midnight tonight, but the onset of another strong low level jet
may aid in storms lingering later into tonight. Temperatures once
again stay well above normal in the upper 50s to low 60s as warm,
moist air is advected in from the southeast. Highs end up a few
degrees warmer compared to today with 70s for most and 80s for
areas around and south of the I-10 corridor. Storm chances return
across southeast New Mexico Sunday afternoon where a few storms
could be strong to severe. That activity should taper off into the
evening and with overnight temperatures once again staying above
normal in the 50s to low 60s.
-Stickney
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
After a very short taste of cooler Fall days and some rainfall, we
begin to warm up and dry out. An upper ridge gradually builds over
the southwestern CONUS on Monday. The ridge reaches its peak
physique by Wednesday, allowing highs to climb into the upper 80s
and low 90s, roughly 10-15F above normal.
A trough swinging in from the Pacific Northwest starts to take a
jab at the upper ridge, squeezing it between another trough over
the Great Lakes region. The latter ushers in a weak cold front
into our neck of the woods overnight Wednesday, shaving off a few
degrees from Thursday`s highs. Overall, the extended forecast
looks warm and dry, for better or for worse, with highs generally
in the 80s and 90s and nights ranging in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
TS has been slow to move into Eddy County this afternoon. Have
removed TS from CNM TAF and will amend and add back in if needed
and when confidence in timing increases. All sites have become VFR
with a return to MVFR expected 06-12Z continuing through much of
the remainder of the TAF period. Gusty southeast winds will
continue creating low level turbulence.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 60 78 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 62 77 57 81 / 50 30 40 0
Dryden 65 78 62 84 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 63 78 60 89 / 10 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 56 73 56 75 / 60 30 40 0
Hobbs 59 72 58 81 / 30 10 20 0
Marfa 55 78 54 82 / 10 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 63 76 61 84 / 10 0 0 0
Odessa 63 75 62 84 / 10 0 10 0
Wink 64 78 61 86 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...10