Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/17/24


See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&& .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 The 20Z surface map showed low pressure over MT and southern Alberta/Saskatchewan with large high pressure centered across MO. In between these 2 systems, the tight pressure gradient continues. Winds have been breezy out of the south with gusts of 25 to just over 45 mph for much of the day. Even after we lose the daytime mixing today, winds will remain elevated. A low level jet just above the surface will help bring winds gusting over 45 mph to the higher elevations and eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills areas. A Wind Advisory has been posted for this area into Thursday. Fire weather concerns continue. Very dry grasses and brush from limited rainfall, relative humidity values in the 17 to 25 percent range this afternoon, and the strong winds gusting out of the south 25 to 45 mph have resulted in critical fire weather. Red Flag Warnings continue into the early evening hours today, and will be picked up again Thursday from south central SD through eastern SD and west central MN. The difference tomorrow will be a slight decrease to the winds. This will be as the MT low shifts across the central Dakotas and gets reinforced by an additional low from western NE. The associated cold front will set up over central SD Thursday afternoon, with winds shifting out of the west and diminishing over north central SD. The area of low pressure will only slowly exit over southeastern South Dakota an central Minnesota by Friday night. Unfortunately, breezy winds out of the north will return to central South Dakota Friday afternoon. Still, additional moisture will move into the area, with a 50 percent chance of light showers Thursday night west of the James River Valley. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Surface high pressure anchored over the southeast CONUS will create a bit of a block for us as the wave coming in splits with the cut off upper low moving towards the 4 corners region and a weak shortwave moving to our north. The cold front that moves in comes in two waves of cold advection, the first before the start of the long term (Thursday night) with a second reinforcing shot of colder air coming in from the western Dakotas through the course of the day Friday. Deterministic guidance has the front stall in the far eastern CWA by Friday afternoon, with limited QPF showing up along this feature, likely the result of the developing split flow regime. Probabilities are still relatively unchanged, about 40% for 0.1 inches and 30% for 1/4 inch, however the NAM has a noted lack of any QPF (for the eastern 2/3rds of the state) and the associated BUFKIT profiles indicate a lack of lift or saturation at any particular layer for more than a few hours at a time. This is in line with prior experiences with these type of split flow regimes/systems. Will continue to run with the NBM/WPC until there is more sustained evidence to the contrary. Gradient winds and a pressure bubble are also noted associated features with the front, with the GFS/NAM running at 11 and 8mb/6 hours respectively. Probabilities for 30mph gusts are right around 50% with negligible probabilities for wind advisory criteria. With it being a cooler, more humid airmass in the post frontal environment, should be able to take a break from Red Flag criteria, however gusty winds and ambient dry conditions means we will still probably have to deal with elevated fire danger. Rest of the forecast looks fairly mundane with mild air returning for Sunday/Monday. Thereafter the re-integration of the upper low is causing some divergence in the handling of the upper pattern for the remainder of the extended between deterministic models. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG With strong winds continuing over the next 24 hours, and stronger winds above the surface tonight, low level wind shear remains in the forecast for most locations tonight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045- 048-051. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT Thursday for SDZ007-008-011-020-021- 023. MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1103 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another day, another frosty freeze. A cold upper level trough axis will move east through Friday, while a large ridge of high pressure at the surface will then builds into the state and sets up residence for several days. Clear skies with light winds will support widespread frost or freeze conditions overnight and again Friday morning. Fair and pleasant conditions will last through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Another night of potential frosts and freezes is underway, and compared to Tuesday night, fewer clouds and much lighter wind should seal the deal for most. We expect mins should touch freezing in many places, including some of the Lower Susqhehanna River Valley. But, not enough of an area/percentage of the land to warrant a freeze warning at this time. No areas have yet been chopped off the growing season (frost/freeze program still active) in Central PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... After a frosty/freezy start, fair conditions will prevail Thursday over central PA as high pressure builds closer to PA. A slow moving cutoff low along the mid Atlantic seaboard will be just far enough away to impact our southeast. But as a result, there will be some wind kicking up on Thursday over especially southeast sections where gusts into the teens are again expected. Many areas will have nearly full sun for the aftn helping temps to rise 5-10F higher than Wed over the NW, and 2-4F higher for the SE. Nighttime brings another chance for freezing/frost conditions. The threat will be a little lower for the SE with the wind satying up a little higher (5-7MPH) thru the night. Cloud coverage should be near zero for most places. That puts the N & W into a good position for freezing (perhaps better than Thurs AM). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Medium range guidance continues to support fair and much warmer conditions late this week into the weekend, as an amplified upper ridge builds over the Eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure and associated dry air mass building into PA should result in efficient radiational cooling at night into next weekend, with frost/freeze concerns through at least Friday morning. Abundant sunshine and moderating temps aloft should result in progressively warmer days with highs getting back above average by Friday. GEFS 2m temp anomalies indicate max temps should be 5-10 degrees above average by next weekend, translating to 65-70F over most of the region with additional warming likely into early next week. Next chance at some precipitation is next Wednesday as a northern stream shortwave and accompanying surface cold front are forecast to push east through the Ohio Valley and into PA. This will lead to an uptick of pops, mainly across the northwest counties. However, coverage will be minimal and amounts light as the front moves into a very dry airmass. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period with high (~90%) confidence at all airfields outside of BFD/JST where some MVFR ceilings will be possible overnight, especially in the 09-12Z Thursday timeframe. At BFD/JST, cannot rule out some lower-level (~2-4kft) ceilings forming with some low-level moisture within stable air outlined in RAP model soundings. There is some uncertainty on ceilings thickening up enough to warrant MVFR thresholds, with SREF outlining a 40%/50% probability of ceilings reaching MVFR thresholds overnight at JST/BFD, respectively. Multiple runs of recent GLAMP guidance is less insistent on MVFR ceilings being reached, thus have outlined a SCT deck below MVFR thresholds to outline that there will be some concern for ceilings to thicken up in this timeframe, although lower confidence than in the previous TAF package. High pressure influence will keep conditions mainly clear after any lower level clouds that are still lingering mix out tomorrow morning, with VFR conditions after 14Z Thursday with very high (~100%) confidence. Winds generally out of the north will push upwards of 10kts in the LSV (MDT/LNS) with generally closer to 5kts elsewhere throughout the afternoon hours before decreasing into the evening hours. Outlook... Fri-Mon...VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024-027-028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-058. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ025-026- 035-036-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Dangelo NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo LONG TERM...DeVoir/Gartner AVIATION...NPB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
549 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High to extreme Fire weather conditions present today through through Friday. Burning will not be advised as gusty winds and low relative humidities could lead to erratic fire behavior. - Above average temperatures continue through the extended forecast with highs in the 70s. - Dry conditions persist through most of the forecast. Portions of the area could see some much needed rainfall Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Early this afternoon a deep upper trough was located along the US east coast. An upper ridge extended from TX northward across the central and northern Plains. An upper trough was moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a ridge of high pressure was located across MO into eastern KS. Tonight through Thursday night: The upper level trough will dig southeast across the great Basin into the southwestern US and amplify. A strong H5 jet will lift northeast across the central Rockies and Plains. A lee trough across the high plains will deepen through the day and southerly winds across the CWA will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gust up to 35 to 40 MPH. The western counties may flirt with wind advisory criteria for a few hours Thursday afternoon. The gusty southerly winds will continue into Thursday night. Friday through Sunday: The upper trough digging into the southwestern US will amplify into a closed upper low and will get cutoff from the main polar jet across southern Canada. The surface lee trough will shift farther south across eastern CO and eastern NM. Winds on Friday will continue to be gusty and the southerly winds will advect residual moisture northward across the Plains. The stronger ascent ahead of the upper low over the NM/AZ border will cause showers and and a few storms to develop across the high Plains of TX, eastern CO, and western KS. At this time the rain showers should remain west of the CWA. Sunday night through Wednesday: The closed upper low across NM will lift northeast across the southern and central high Plains into central NE by 00Z TUE. The DCVA ahead of the upper low should provide stronger ascent along with residual moisture for scatted showers to develop through the day on Monday. There may be enough instability to hear a clap of thunder. The western gulf remains cut off due to a surface ridge extending from the east central US, southwest along the TX coast. So, without rich gulf moisture, QPF will probably be less then 0.2 inches. The extended range models have the closed upper low across NE shifting east across IA into the southern Great Lakes and OH River Valley on Wednesday. There may be a few lingering showers Tuesday morning but as the upper low tracks northeast of the region, the shower chances will end Tuesday afternoon. Overall temperatures will be warm with highs in the mid to upper 70s. It looks as if we will be in a dry pattern as the main upper jet will remain across southern Canada and the northern Plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 549 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 TAFS are a wind forecast. With dry air in place and moisture slow to return on Thursday, skies should remain clear with maybe some high CI moving in from the west late. Winds will be the main driver of the forecast. Have maintained a mention of LLWS for the pre-dawn hours. Speed shear of 30KT to 35KT is progged from the RAP and NAM. With not much change in direction there is some potential for the stronger winds to mix to the ground limiting the speed sheer. But think the potential for LLWS is high enough to keep in the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1005 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 The red flag warning will continue through 7 PM across north central Kansas. Southerly winds will continue to increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH, and minimum RHs will be in the 17 to 20 percent range. The RHs will increase above 30 percent and the wind gusts will diminish after 7 PM. Thursday, the surface winds east of the lee trough and west of a surface ridge axis will increase to 20 to 30 MPH during the late morning and through the early evening hours. The residual moisture return may overcome the deeper mixing and only allow minimum RHs to drop to a 19 to 25 percent range. However, since fuels are very dry after the hard freeze, the environment will be conducive for wild fires across the entire region. Therefore the fire weather watch has been upgraded to a red flag warning from 11 AM until 8 PM. Friday into the weekend. Friday will continue to be breezy but the continued advection of residual moisture north should keep minimum RHs in the 25 to 35 percent range. Therefore the rangeland fire danger index should only be high to very high across the region. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ034-KSZ035. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054- KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Wolters FIRE WEATHER...Gargan