Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/15/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1014 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect precipitation with rain showers and high elevation
snow showers across the Finger Lakes and Central NY will be
isolated in nature overnight before becoming more widespread in
coverage again Tuesday. Breezy conditions return Tuesday
afternoon. The colder weather lasts through mid week before
starting to warm back up Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
1000 PM Update:
Reduced PoPs across CNY and the Finger Lakes Region through the
overnight hours with precipitation trending more isolated in
nature in between disturbances. Temperatures were running a
little higher than currently projected in the hourlies with the
scattered clouds around the region. The HRRR was pretty close to
current readings, so blended that in over the next several
hours for now.
645 PM Update:
Main focus was PoPs over the next several hours as lake effect
precipitation has become mostly a singular band across central
NY and into eastern Susquehanna County in NE PA. This band is
expected to weaken over the next few hours. The gusty breeze in
place this evening will also ease some overnight. Lake effect
precipitation will increase in coverage again tomorrow along
with the return of breezy conditions.
330 PM Update:
A strong cold front has moved through this morning with strong
NW flow across the region. Temperatures have been falling this
afternoon at most stations and even a few webcams from
elevations above 1800 feet have had some snow mix in at times.
As a shortwave trough axis swings through this evening,
strengthening cold air advection aloft drops 850 mb temperatures
to near -5C. With surface temperatures of Lake Ontario still
warm, up over 15C, there will be more than enough to get lake
effect precipitation going. While the low level lapse rates are
favorable for snow to make it to the surface at areas with
temperatures above freezing, cloud top temperatures dont fall
below -10C to get ice until late tonight into tomorrow morning.
A mix of rain and snow was kept in the grids for temperatures
below 36 degrees for overnight just in case some of the
convective lake effect showers could punch up to -10C.
Another shortwave moves in tomorrow afternoon with a
reinforcing shot of cold air as well as some steeper mid level
lapse rates that will help increase the coverage of the lake
effect precipitation as well as drop the freezing level down to
around 1500 feet above sea level. Tomorrow night has the best
chance for snow to mix in to even some valley locations while
hill tops above 1500 feet may see a dusting of snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...
NW flow will continue to bring lake effect precipitation to CNY
and the Northern Tier of PA Wednesday morning as the influence
from the departing trough holds on for a little longer . Temps
will be cold enough for precipitation in the valleys to be rain,
with higher elevations seeing a rain snow mix. Lake effect
showers will begin to dissipate late in the morning as high
pressure builds in from the SW, effectively ending our wet
weather by mid afternoon. Temps will remain cold on Wednesday
with highs only reaching the mid 40s for most.
Wednesday night will be cold as high pressure overhead combined
with light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling to drop temps down into the low to mid 30s
for most. Parts of the Catskills will fall into the upper 20s.
With the light winds and clear skies, there is a chance frost
will develop over the Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley; the two
areas in our CWA that remain in the growing season. Currently,
lake effect clouds look like they may linger into the late
overnight hours, which would limit frost development. We will
continue to monitor the forecast and issue frost headlines when
confidence is high enough.
High pressure will advect in a much more seasonable airmass on
Thursday with highs climbing back towards normal, toping out in
the low to mid 50s. With the ridge axis still to our east, NW
flow should induce some scattered lake effect clouds across the
area during the afternoon hours but no precipitation is
expected.
Thursday night will be another cold one with clear skies and
light winds under high pressure allowing radiational cooling to
drop temps into the low to mid 30s. Another chance for frost in
our growing season counties remains, especially with the center
of the high closer to the region bringing much better chances
for clear skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 PM Update...
High pressure centered over the eastern US will dominate the
weather pattern for this period. We will remain on the northern
edge of the high, bringing dry conditions, westerly winds, and
increasing warmth each day. Temps in the upper 50s to low 60s on
Fri turn into mid to upper 60s for the weekend into Monday. Dry
air and high pressure will allow overnight lows to fall into
the mid 30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
750 PM Update
A cold, moist northwest flow pattern will persist over the next
24 hours. Conditions will vary from lower end VFR to MVFR fuel
alternate in the lake effect strato-cumulus clouds. There will
also be occasional lake effect rain showers, especially at SYR,
ITH and BGM...and a few snow flakes may mix in at ITH/BGM
overnight into Tuesday morning. Visibilities look to stay
mainly VFR, but brief MVFR visibilities are also possible in any
of the steadier showers; included this in the ITH and SYR tafs.
AVP stays VFR most of the time; except a period in the early to
mid morning hours when the MVFR stratus clouds look to make a
southward extension into the area. Current forecasts show this
lifting back to VFR levels by late morning and Tuesday
afternoon.
Surface winds will be west-northwest, decreasing under 10 kts
overnight for most locations. Northwest winds increase slightly
during the day on Tuesday, back to around 8-15 kts.
.Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and
associated occasional restrictions at Central NY terminals.
Mainly VFR at KAVP.
Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ044-047.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/DK
NEAR TERM...AJG/DK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light Sprinkles Possible Northern Missouri Early Tuesday
- First Freeze Expected Wednesday Morning
- Rain Possible Saturday; Model Probabilities Continue to Decrease
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Strong surface anticyclone is centered over eastern Nebraska but
spreads from the High Plains to the western Great Lakes region. Deep
closed-low system remains in place from Hudson Bay into the
central/eastern Great Lakes Region, with mid-level ridge axis
starting to acquire a positive tilt over the Northern Rockies.
Currently watching for a lobe of vorticity and localized mid-level
jet max to swing southward on the backside of that closed-low system
that will provide modest lift late this evening into the early
morning hours of Tuesday. Current model soundings show a strong dry
air intrusion from the surface up through about 600mb, but
saturation takes place as this features moves southward (at least as
indicated by model soundings). Both GFS and RAP show modest
increases in Q-vector convergence as well as weak FGEN area in this
area of better kinematics, and this may be enough to generate
isolated to scattered sprinkles for our northern and northeastern
Missouri counties. The CAMs simulated reflectivity fields have been
producing some output, but, have very little QPF attributed to it.
HREF mean QPF is less than one-hundredth of an inch. GEFS
probabilities for measurable precip is around 15 percent for Tuesday
morning. The expectation is for the dry air to win out, so will only
place a mention of isolated sprinkles into the forecast. Areas that
do not see cloud cover in northern Missouri Tuesday morning may have
strong enough cooling for temperatures to reach the lower 30s, which
could result in some patchy frost. Tuesday afternoon, predominantly
north-northwesterly flow will continue to push the surface
anticyclone southward, keeping afternoon high temperatures in the
mid to upper 50s. A few locations in our southern most counties may
hit 60.
Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning, surface anticyclone is
progged to be centered directly over the forecast area. The
combination of clear skies and calm winds will maximize radiational
cooling efficiency, and is expected to result in the first freeze
for the entire area. For areas along and north of Interstate 70,
probabilities for minimum temperatures below 32F are above 85
percent, and above 70 percent for our southern most counties. NBM
inner-quartile ranges are between 26 and 29 for our northern
counties, and 28 to 31 for southern counties. With the continued
downward trend in temperatures and favorable cooling conditions, the
Freeze Watch has been updated to a Freeze Warning for all counties
in our forecast area for Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon, troughing over the Pacific will attempt to push
the ridge axis eastward, and current deterministic guidance favors
the closed-low system northeast of the area being pushed into the
New England Region. This forces the surface anticyclone east of our
area and will provide southerly flow, resulting in weak WAA that
should bump temperatures back to the lower 60s Wednesday afternoon,
and continue through the evening and overnight hours. This results
in Thursday morning lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Continued subsidence through Thursday will keep conditions dry.
Thursday afternoon temperatures should climb back into the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Most ensemble guidance inner-quartile values are in
this range with most data points clustered around it.
By late Thursday evening, mid-level ridge axis should be well east
of the area with a PV anomaly promoting troughing over the western
third of the CONUS. This should begin dCVA over the Front Range and
make an attempt at stronger surface cyclogenesis, with area of mid-
level height falls expanding eastward toward our area. Heading into
Friday though, the better flow and kinematics are currently progged
to remain over the Central Plains, and while WAA will still be on
going, it will be more southwesterly with little moisture transport
from the Gulf. Therefore, dry conditions are expected on Saturday,
with no medium-range deterministic guidance producing any QPF. GEFS
and other ensemble suites for Friday keep probabilities for
measurable rain under 10 percent. For Saturday into Sunday,
deterministic model runs are lifting the trough out of the Central
Plains before the strongest forcing and moisture transport arrive in
our area, resulting in dry conditions. Now, amongst ensemble suites,
there is still discrepancy in how early the trough lifts, the
position of stronger kinematic forcing, and the track of thermal
boundaries associated with the surface cyclone. The WPC Cluster
Analysis of the 500mb pattern possibilities shows two distinct
solutions with respect to the trough propagation. Given this spread,
ensemble probabilities for measurable rainfall Saturday into Sunday
are still around 20 to 30 percent, but this is a considerable
decrease compared to the ensemble runs from a few days ago. If the
trough lifts early, conditions remain dry here through the weekend.
If the trough digs more and swings better forcing further east, we
may be able to see around one-tenth of an inch of QPF. Temperatures
over the weekend will still likely be in the 70s, as this is where
most ensemble suites inner-quartile ranges sit, though will point
out the 10th-90th percentile spread is larger which depicts
differences in possible solutions. Again, an earlier lifting of the
trough will result in warmer drier conditions, with a more eastward
track resulting in cooler conditions with rain potential. If eastern
Kansas to Central Missouri misses out Saturday into Sunday, the next
opportunity for rain looks to be around Tuesday of next week more
troughing moving across the Central CONUS. Both deterministic
guidance and ensemble probabilities are favoring rain activity by
Tuesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
A few passing clouds expected through the afternoon and evening,
but VFR conditions expected. Winds generally less than 10 kts of
out the north.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
703 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight which will end
the growing season across the area.
- Increasing fire weather concerns midweek as warm, dry, and
windy conditions return.
- Light rain continues to look likely this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Sprawling Canadian high pressure continues to spread southwards
today, with the high expected to center over the area by
tomorrow morning. This will setup prime radiational cooling
temperatures overnight, if skies are able to remain mostly clear
tonight. Patchy stratocumulus advecting off of Lake Superior is
expected to continue into this evening, and any residual areas
of cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures several degrees
warmer than those areas that clear out. Western Minnesota will
see the least amount of cloud cover, and as a result overnight
lows are expected to drop well into the mid-20s by sunrise.
Elsewhere, sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s
are expected, but a few spots could stay above freezing where
patchy cloud cover persists overnight. Regardless, enough of the
area is expected to have a solid freeze tonight to effective
end the growing season across central, eastern, and south-
central Minnesota. Daytime temperatures will remain cool
tomorrow with highs in the low 50s.
The high pressure begins to depart on Wednesday, with increasing
southerly winds on the backside of the high ushering in warmer
conditions to the region. Elevated fire weather conditions look
possible across western Minnesota Wednesday afternoon where
gusty south winds, low RH values, and highs warming into the mid
60s will create an increasing fire weather risk. Temperatures
really warm Thursday & Friday as ridging aloft over the central
CONUS brings well-above normal temperatures into the region and
a chance for daytime highs in the 70s - 10+ degrees above
normal. West of this ridging, troughing tries to build into the
central CONUS by saturday but most models have it weakening and
the flow aloft weakening over the weekend. Still, a frontal
boundary is expected to move through the region late Friday
through saturday, with most ensemble guidance suggesting high
probabilities for light rain amounts (<0.25") along the front.
Zonal flow persist into next week, but with the jet displaced
unseasonably north for mid to late October across central
Canada. This means another extended stretch of warm weather
through much of next week, with the warmest conditions likely
Monday-Tuesday when ensembles highlight the potential for
temperature anomalies near 20F above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
A strong shortwave is diving into central MN right now and is
associated with the batch of 4-5k foot cigs and isolated showers
over central MN. Temp/dewpoint spreads are quite large out
there, indicating dry air is going to make getting much of this
precip to the ground difficult, so left STC dry. Though we`ll
have high pressure building in through the night, RAP forecast
soundings at most locations in MN look an awful lot like
fog/stratus soundings Monday morning. The HRRR is also starting
to get more aggressive with developing patches of LIFR stratus.
Even the LAV is starting to spit out some LIFR/IFR cig potential
as well. Still, this is a pretty dry airmass building in, so
we`re not overly sold on there being much low stratus
development tonight. For Tuesday, skies will clear out and with
high pressure overhead, winds will remain fairly light.
KMSP...If we were to see any fog/stratus Tuesday it would be
from 10z to 14z, but think that possibility still looks pretty
low.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind SW 10G20 kts.
THU-FRI...VFR. Wind S 15-20G25-35kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc -RA early. Wind SW 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for Blue Earth-
Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-
Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
Scott-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-
Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
857 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
The cold air has built into Middle TN, our 24 hour temperature
change is 15 to 25 degrees compared to this time yesterday. It
will be chilly tonight with lows falling into the 40s and into the
30s over the Plateau. The air mass will be pretty dry and that
should limit fog potential tonight but some patchy fog will be
possible mainly near and over warmer water ways. Another shot of
cold air moves in tomorrow with a digging trough. This will bring
some cloud cover by morning and an isolated (<20% chance)
afternoon shower or two over the Plateau.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Fall weather continues this evening with highs still expected to
top out in the 60s today. Tonight, much cooler temperatures will
move in with mid 30s to low 40s forecasted. Winds will calm
tonight but pick back up by Tuesday afternoon. There is a small
chance that the Plateau could see some light showers Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. The last few HRRR runs have
shifted most of the chances N and E, but several other CAMs
continue to hint at some light rain being possible. Decided to
leave the 20% POPs that was put in over the night shift as some
light rain can`t be ruled out over the Plateau.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
The last time we saw a high of 65 or cooler at BNA was April 21.
Tuesday and Wednesday might provide that for us. Of course, that
also means cool morning temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday
mornings will be coolest with frost possible both mornings -- and
maybe even some freezing temps on the Plateau! If you have
sensitive vegetation, you`ll want to start making plans to protect
it.
Besides Tuesday`s puny rain chances on the Plateau, we`re still
dry in the 7-10 day forecast. You`ll want to be very careful
burning outdoors going forward. Drought conditions will only
continue to worsen.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
A surface ridge sits to our west, so Middle Tennessee continues to
enjoy the fruits of a cool, dry air mass. Winds will remain out of
the N/NW overnight and tomorrow, although we do expect winds to go
light/calm this evening before resuming their gustiness tomorrow.
While the TAFs are VFR, we do expect some mid-level ceilings
tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough finally swings through the
mid state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 45 61 38 62 / 0 10 0 0
Clarksville 43 59 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
Crossville 36 55 30 54 / 0 20 20 0
Columbia 41 64 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 38 56 31 55 / 0 20 20 0
Jamestown 38 54 31 54 / 0 20 20 0
Lawrenceburg 40 64 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 41 62 35 61 / 0 10 0 0
Waverly 43 60 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Rose
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
941 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Abnormally warm and dry through Wednesday afternoon.
- Increasing winds lead to near critical fire weather conditions
Wednesday ahead of an approaching system.
- Much cooler temperatures and widespread rain and snow
expected Wednesday night through Friday. Winter travel
conditions are likely over mountain passes, especially
Thursday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Abnormally warm and dry conditions will continue for the next couple
of days as the region remains under a broad upper ridge.
Temperatures will again peak around 15 to 20 degrees warmer than
normal today and Tuesday. Given the warm and dry afternoons, fire
weather conditions will remain elevated during this time. However,
generally lighter winds will play a mitigating factor in keeping
concerns lower. Regardless, conditions will be favorable for the
Pack Trail wildfire near Togwotee Pass to continue to drain smoke
into lower elevations on both sides of the Continental Divide, but
especially down the Gros Ventre River drainage into Jackson Hole.
Further out, a notable pattern change is finally on the way, and
we`ll start to see impacts beginning Wednesday. A significant trough
will approach from the Pacific Northwest, making for a warm and
windy day within southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front.
This will result in fairly widespread elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions as wind ramps up in the afternoon. A Fire Weather
Watch may soon be considered for Wednesday, but incoming moisture
aloft may mix down with the wind and keep humidity values above the
15 percent criteria and more in the 20 percent range. Regardless,
the wind concern remains given just how persistently warm and dry it
has been.
Deterministic models continue to show the first push of the
associated cold front dropping east-southeast across Wyoming
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. This is also when
precipitation chances will begin to increase; temperatures will
certainly be cold enough behind the front for mountain snow through
Thursday. Wind will stay elevated as a strong pressure gradient sets
up Thursday, most notably east of the Divide. While precipitation
chances should be on the increase, the wind may still keep
somewhat of a fire weather threat going across much of central
Wyoming.
Current guidance shows a surge of colder air arriving Thursday night
as the primary 500mb low dives into the Desert Southwest. This would
keep precipitation chances elevated across the entire area through
Friday. If current trends hold, temperatures may drop below freezing
nearly everywhere Friday morning and especially Saturday morning.
This will likely mark the end of the growing season for everyone,
and could bring some snow to lower elevations. While this will
change as details become clearer, total QPF amounts are generally in
the 0.3" to 0.8" range, with higher elevations and portions of
southern Wyoming closer to 1". Moderated but still cool temperatures
are then expected for the weekend, with higher uncertainty on
lingering precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 939 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Light winds and a mainly cloudless sky continues through the TAF
period. Main impacts will continue to be for KJAC as wildfire smoke
from the nearby Pack Trail fire makes in into the valley. The latest
HRRR run show smoke returning to the valley in the 09Z-12Z/Tue
timeframe. Increasing smoke may reduce visibilities by or
shortly after sunrise, as has been the pattern over the last
several days. Increasing southwest flow may help to clear the
smoke somewhat during the afternoon, before additional upper-
level smoke makes its way in from a Utah fire in the evening;
there is uncertainty at this range if this smoke would cause
visibility drops.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue
today and Tuesday. Winds will remain light, but RH values will
be near critical. Winds increase across the forecast area
Wednesday, with southwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph occurring
for much of the area. Near critical fire weather conditions are
expected as a result, despite RH values in the upper teens to
middle 20s. A cold front approaches the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, leading to cooler temperatures and increasing
chances for precipitation. There is a chance for wetting
precipitation across much of the area Thursday night into
Friday.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ012>018-025-
026.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...Wittmann
FIRE WEATHER...LaVoie