Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/15/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1014 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Lake effect precipitation with rain showers and high elevation snow showers across the Finger Lakes and Central NY will be isolated in nature overnight before becoming more widespread in coverage again Tuesday. Breezy conditions return Tuesday afternoon. The colder weather lasts through mid week before starting to warm back up Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 1000 PM Update: Reduced PoPs across CNY and the Finger Lakes Region through the overnight hours with precipitation trending more isolated in nature in between disturbances. Temperatures were running a little higher than currently projected in the hourlies with the scattered clouds around the region. The HRRR was pretty close to current readings, so blended that in over the next several hours for now. 645 PM Update: Main focus was PoPs over the next several hours as lake effect precipitation has become mostly a singular band across central NY and into eastern Susquehanna County in NE PA. This band is expected to weaken over the next few hours. The gusty breeze in place this evening will also ease some overnight. Lake effect precipitation will increase in coverage again tomorrow along with the return of breezy conditions. 330 PM Update: A strong cold front has moved through this morning with strong NW flow across the region. Temperatures have been falling this afternoon at most stations and even a few webcams from elevations above 1800 feet have had some snow mix in at times. As a shortwave trough axis swings through this evening, strengthening cold air advection aloft drops 850 mb temperatures to near -5C. With surface temperatures of Lake Ontario still warm, up over 15C, there will be more than enough to get lake effect precipitation going. While the low level lapse rates are favorable for snow to make it to the surface at areas with temperatures above freezing, cloud top temperatures dont fall below -10C to get ice until late tonight into tomorrow morning. A mix of rain and snow was kept in the grids for temperatures below 36 degrees for overnight just in case some of the convective lake effect showers could punch up to -10C. Another shortwave moves in tomorrow afternoon with a reinforcing shot of cold air as well as some steeper mid level lapse rates that will help increase the coverage of the lake effect precipitation as well as drop the freezing level down to around 1500 feet above sea level. Tomorrow night has the best chance for snow to mix in to even some valley locations while hill tops above 1500 feet may see a dusting of snow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update... NW flow will continue to bring lake effect precipitation to CNY and the Northern Tier of PA Wednesday morning as the influence from the departing trough holds on for a little longer . Temps will be cold enough for precipitation in the valleys to be rain, with higher elevations seeing a rain snow mix. Lake effect showers will begin to dissipate late in the morning as high pressure builds in from the SW, effectively ending our wet weather by mid afternoon. Temps will remain cold on Wednesday with highs only reaching the mid 40s for most. Wednesday night will be cold as high pressure overhead combined with light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for radiational cooling to drop temps down into the low to mid 30s for most. Parts of the Catskills will fall into the upper 20s. With the light winds and clear skies, there is a chance frost will develop over the Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley; the two areas in our CWA that remain in the growing season. Currently, lake effect clouds look like they may linger into the late overnight hours, which would limit frost development. We will continue to monitor the forecast and issue frost headlines when confidence is high enough. High pressure will advect in a much more seasonable airmass on Thursday with highs climbing back towards normal, toping out in the low to mid 50s. With the ridge axis still to our east, NW flow should induce some scattered lake effect clouds across the area during the afternoon hours but no precipitation is expected. Thursday night will be another cold one with clear skies and light winds under high pressure allowing radiational cooling to drop temps into the low to mid 30s. Another chance for frost in our growing season counties remains, especially with the center of the high closer to the region bringing much better chances for clear skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 315 PM Update... High pressure centered over the eastern US will dominate the weather pattern for this period. We will remain on the northern edge of the high, bringing dry conditions, westerly winds, and increasing warmth each day. Temps in the upper 50s to low 60s on Fri turn into mid to upper 60s for the weekend into Monday. Dry air and high pressure will allow overnight lows to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 750 PM Update A cold, moist northwest flow pattern will persist over the next 24 hours. Conditions will vary from lower end VFR to MVFR fuel alternate in the lake effect strato-cumulus clouds. There will also be occasional lake effect rain showers, especially at SYR, ITH and BGM...and a few snow flakes may mix in at ITH/BGM overnight into Tuesday morning. Visibilities look to stay mainly VFR, but brief MVFR visibilities are also possible in any of the steadier showers; included this in the ITH and SYR tafs. AVP stays VFR most of the time; except a period in the early to mid morning hours when the MVFR stratus clouds look to make a southward extension into the area. Current forecasts show this lifting back to VFR levels by late morning and Tuesday afternoon. Surface winds will be west-northwest, decreasing under 10 kts overnight for most locations. Northwest winds increase slightly during the day on Tuesday, back to around 8-15 kts. .Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and associated occasional restrictions at Central NY terminals. Mainly VFR at KAVP. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ044-047. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/DK NEAR TERM...AJG/DK SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...AJG/MJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light Sprinkles Possible Northern Missouri Early Tuesday - First Freeze Expected Wednesday Morning - Rain Possible Saturday; Model Probabilities Continue to Decrease && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Strong surface anticyclone is centered over eastern Nebraska but spreads from the High Plains to the western Great Lakes region. Deep closed-low system remains in place from Hudson Bay into the central/eastern Great Lakes Region, with mid-level ridge axis starting to acquire a positive tilt over the Northern Rockies. Currently watching for a lobe of vorticity and localized mid-level jet max to swing southward on the backside of that closed-low system that will provide modest lift late this evening into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Current model soundings show a strong dry air intrusion from the surface up through about 600mb, but saturation takes place as this features moves southward (at least as indicated by model soundings). Both GFS and RAP show modest increases in Q-vector convergence as well as weak FGEN area in this area of better kinematics, and this may be enough to generate isolated to scattered sprinkles for our northern and northeastern Missouri counties. The CAMs simulated reflectivity fields have been producing some output, but, have very little QPF attributed to it. HREF mean QPF is less than one-hundredth of an inch. GEFS probabilities for measurable precip is around 15 percent for Tuesday morning. The expectation is for the dry air to win out, so will only place a mention of isolated sprinkles into the forecast. Areas that do not see cloud cover in northern Missouri Tuesday morning may have strong enough cooling for temperatures to reach the lower 30s, which could result in some patchy frost. Tuesday afternoon, predominantly north-northwesterly flow will continue to push the surface anticyclone southward, keeping afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. A few locations in our southern most counties may hit 60. Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning, surface anticyclone is progged to be centered directly over the forecast area. The combination of clear skies and calm winds will maximize radiational cooling efficiency, and is expected to result in the first freeze for the entire area. For areas along and north of Interstate 70, probabilities for minimum temperatures below 32F are above 85 percent, and above 70 percent for our southern most counties. NBM inner-quartile ranges are between 26 and 29 for our northern counties, and 28 to 31 for southern counties. With the continued downward trend in temperatures and favorable cooling conditions, the Freeze Watch has been updated to a Freeze Warning for all counties in our forecast area for Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon, troughing over the Pacific will attempt to push the ridge axis eastward, and current deterministic guidance favors the closed-low system northeast of the area being pushed into the New England Region. This forces the surface anticyclone east of our area and will provide southerly flow, resulting in weak WAA that should bump temperatures back to the lower 60s Wednesday afternoon, and continue through the evening and overnight hours. This results in Thursday morning lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Continued subsidence through Thursday will keep conditions dry. Thursday afternoon temperatures should climb back into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Most ensemble guidance inner-quartile values are in this range with most data points clustered around it. By late Thursday evening, mid-level ridge axis should be well east of the area with a PV anomaly promoting troughing over the western third of the CONUS. This should begin dCVA over the Front Range and make an attempt at stronger surface cyclogenesis, with area of mid- level height falls expanding eastward toward our area. Heading into Friday though, the better flow and kinematics are currently progged to remain over the Central Plains, and while WAA will still be on going, it will be more southwesterly with little moisture transport from the Gulf. Therefore, dry conditions are expected on Saturday, with no medium-range deterministic guidance producing any QPF. GEFS and other ensemble suites for Friday keep probabilities for measurable rain under 10 percent. For Saturday into Sunday, deterministic model runs are lifting the trough out of the Central Plains before the strongest forcing and moisture transport arrive in our area, resulting in dry conditions. Now, amongst ensemble suites, there is still discrepancy in how early the trough lifts, the position of stronger kinematic forcing, and the track of thermal boundaries associated with the surface cyclone. The WPC Cluster Analysis of the 500mb pattern possibilities shows two distinct solutions with respect to the trough propagation. Given this spread, ensemble probabilities for measurable rainfall Saturday into Sunday are still around 20 to 30 percent, but this is a considerable decrease compared to the ensemble runs from a few days ago. If the trough lifts early, conditions remain dry here through the weekend. If the trough digs more and swings better forcing further east, we may be able to see around one-tenth of an inch of QPF. Temperatures over the weekend will still likely be in the 70s, as this is where most ensemble suites inner-quartile ranges sit, though will point out the 10th-90th percentile spread is larger which depicts differences in possible solutions. Again, an earlier lifting of the trough will result in warmer drier conditions, with a more eastward track resulting in cooler conditions with rain potential. If eastern Kansas to Central Missouri misses out Saturday into Sunday, the next opportunity for rain looks to be around Tuesday of next week more troughing moving across the Central CONUS. Both deterministic guidance and ensemble probabilities are favoring rain activity by Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A few passing clouds expected through the afternoon and evening, but VFR conditions expected. Winds generally less than 10 kts of out the north. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...Krull
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
703 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight which will end the growing season across the area. - Increasing fire weather concerns midweek as warm, dry, and windy conditions return. - Light rain continues to look likely this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Sprawling Canadian high pressure continues to spread southwards today, with the high expected to center over the area by tomorrow morning. This will setup prime radiational cooling temperatures overnight, if skies are able to remain mostly clear tonight. Patchy stratocumulus advecting off of Lake Superior is expected to continue into this evening, and any residual areas of cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures several degrees warmer than those areas that clear out. Western Minnesota will see the least amount of cloud cover, and as a result overnight lows are expected to drop well into the mid-20s by sunrise. Elsewhere, sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected, but a few spots could stay above freezing where patchy cloud cover persists overnight. Regardless, enough of the area is expected to have a solid freeze tonight to effective end the growing season across central, eastern, and south- central Minnesota. Daytime temperatures will remain cool tomorrow with highs in the low 50s. The high pressure begins to depart on Wednesday, with increasing southerly winds on the backside of the high ushering in warmer conditions to the region. Elevated fire weather conditions look possible across western Minnesota Wednesday afternoon where gusty south winds, low RH values, and highs warming into the mid 60s will create an increasing fire weather risk. Temperatures really warm Thursday & Friday as ridging aloft over the central CONUS brings well-above normal temperatures into the region and a chance for daytime highs in the 70s - 10+ degrees above normal. West of this ridging, troughing tries to build into the central CONUS by saturday but most models have it weakening and the flow aloft weakening over the weekend. Still, a frontal boundary is expected to move through the region late Friday through saturday, with most ensemble guidance suggesting high probabilities for light rain amounts (<0.25") along the front. Zonal flow persist into next week, but with the jet displaced unseasonably north for mid to late October across central Canada. This means another extended stretch of warm weather through much of next week, with the warmest conditions likely Monday-Tuesday when ensembles highlight the potential for temperature anomalies near 20F above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A strong shortwave is diving into central MN right now and is associated with the batch of 4-5k foot cigs and isolated showers over central MN. Temp/dewpoint spreads are quite large out there, indicating dry air is going to make getting much of this precip to the ground difficult, so left STC dry. Though we`ll have high pressure building in through the night, RAP forecast soundings at most locations in MN look an awful lot like fog/stratus soundings Monday morning. The HRRR is also starting to get more aggressive with developing patches of LIFR stratus. Even the LAV is starting to spit out some LIFR/IFR cig potential as well. Still, this is a pretty dry airmass building in, so we`re not overly sold on there being much low stratus development tonight. For Tuesday, skies will clear out and with high pressure overhead, winds will remain fairly light. KMSP...If we were to see any fog/stratus Tuesday it would be from 10z to 14z, but think that possibility still looks pretty low. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SW 10G20 kts. THU-FRI...VFR. Wind S 15-20G25-35kts. SAT...VFR. Chc -RA early. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin- McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice- Scott-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
857 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 852 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 The cold air has built into Middle TN, our 24 hour temperature change is 15 to 25 degrees compared to this time yesterday. It will be chilly tonight with lows falling into the 40s and into the 30s over the Plateau. The air mass will be pretty dry and that should limit fog potential tonight but some patchy fog will be possible mainly near and over warmer water ways. Another shot of cold air moves in tomorrow with a digging trough. This will bring some cloud cover by morning and an isolated (<20% chance) afternoon shower or two over the Plateau. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Fall weather continues this evening with highs still expected to top out in the 60s today. Tonight, much cooler temperatures will move in with mid 30s to low 40s forecasted. Winds will calm tonight but pick back up by Tuesday afternoon. There is a small chance that the Plateau could see some light showers Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. The last few HRRR runs have shifted most of the chances N and E, but several other CAMs continue to hint at some light rain being possible. Decided to leave the 20% POPs that was put in over the night shift as some light rain can`t be ruled out over the Plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 The last time we saw a high of 65 or cooler at BNA was April 21. Tuesday and Wednesday might provide that for us. Of course, that also means cool morning temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be coolest with frost possible both mornings -- and maybe even some freezing temps on the Plateau! If you have sensitive vegetation, you`ll want to start making plans to protect it. Besides Tuesday`s puny rain chances on the Plateau, we`re still dry in the 7-10 day forecast. You`ll want to be very careful burning outdoors going forward. Drought conditions will only continue to worsen. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A surface ridge sits to our west, so Middle Tennessee continues to enjoy the fruits of a cool, dry air mass. Winds will remain out of the N/NW overnight and tomorrow, although we do expect winds to go light/calm this evening before resuming their gustiness tomorrow. While the TAFs are VFR, we do expect some mid-level ceilings tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough finally swings through the mid state. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 45 61 38 62 / 0 10 0 0 Clarksville 43 59 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 36 55 30 54 / 0 20 20 0 Columbia 41 64 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 38 56 31 55 / 0 20 20 0 Jamestown 38 54 31 54 / 0 20 20 0 Lawrenceburg 40 64 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 41 62 35 61 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 43 60 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....Rose
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
941 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Abnormally warm and dry through Wednesday afternoon. - Increasing winds lead to near critical fire weather conditions Wednesday ahead of an approaching system. - Much cooler temperatures and widespread rain and snow expected Wednesday night through Friday. Winter travel conditions are likely over mountain passes, especially Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Abnormally warm and dry conditions will continue for the next couple of days as the region remains under a broad upper ridge. Temperatures will again peak around 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal today and Tuesday. Given the warm and dry afternoons, fire weather conditions will remain elevated during this time. However, generally lighter winds will play a mitigating factor in keeping concerns lower. Regardless, conditions will be favorable for the Pack Trail wildfire near Togwotee Pass to continue to drain smoke into lower elevations on both sides of the Continental Divide, but especially down the Gros Ventre River drainage into Jackson Hole. Further out, a notable pattern change is finally on the way, and we`ll start to see impacts beginning Wednesday. A significant trough will approach from the Pacific Northwest, making for a warm and windy day within southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front. This will result in fairly widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions as wind ramps up in the afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch may soon be considered for Wednesday, but incoming moisture aloft may mix down with the wind and keep humidity values above the 15 percent criteria and more in the 20 percent range. Regardless, the wind concern remains given just how persistently warm and dry it has been. Deterministic models continue to show the first push of the associated cold front dropping east-southeast across Wyoming Wednesday night through Thursday morning. This is also when precipitation chances will begin to increase; temperatures will certainly be cold enough behind the front for mountain snow through Thursday. Wind will stay elevated as a strong pressure gradient sets up Thursday, most notably east of the Divide. While precipitation chances should be on the increase, the wind may still keep somewhat of a fire weather threat going across much of central Wyoming. Current guidance shows a surge of colder air arriving Thursday night as the primary 500mb low dives into the Desert Southwest. This would keep precipitation chances elevated across the entire area through Friday. If current trends hold, temperatures may drop below freezing nearly everywhere Friday morning and especially Saturday morning. This will likely mark the end of the growing season for everyone, and could bring some snow to lower elevations. While this will change as details become clearer, total QPF amounts are generally in the 0.3" to 0.8" range, with higher elevations and portions of southern Wyoming closer to 1". Moderated but still cool temperatures are then expected for the weekend, with higher uncertainty on lingering precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 939 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Light winds and a mainly cloudless sky continues through the TAF period. Main impacts will continue to be for KJAC as wildfire smoke from the nearby Pack Trail fire makes in into the valley. The latest HRRR run show smoke returning to the valley in the 09Z-12Z/Tue timeframe. Increasing smoke may reduce visibilities by or shortly after sunrise, as has been the pattern over the last several days. Increasing southwest flow may help to clear the smoke somewhat during the afternoon, before additional upper- level smoke makes its way in from a Utah fire in the evening; there is uncertainty at this range if this smoke would cause visibility drops. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue today and Tuesday. Winds will remain light, but RH values will be near critical. Winds increase across the forecast area Wednesday, with southwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph occurring for much of the area. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected as a result, despite RH values in the upper teens to middle 20s. A cold front approaches the area Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to cooler temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation. There is a chance for wetting precipitation across much of the area Thursday night into Friday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ012>018-025- 026. && $$ DISCUSSION...Myers AVIATION...Wittmann FIRE WEATHER...LaVoie