Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/12/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
227 PM MDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler (seasonable) temperatures this weekend
- Warm weather Monday through Wednesday
- Pattern Change Possible Late Next Week...Cooler and Wetter
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday night...
Weak shortwave energy and jet divergence were moving through N
MT, N of the forecast area, bringing some showers to NE MT this
afternoon. Additional weak energy moves into the forecast area
tonight from the W under weakly cyclonic NW flow. Models generally
keep the area dry, although some CAMS try to bring in a few
showers with the energy. A cold front also pushes into the
northern parts of the area late tonight. Looking at soundings and
RH profiles, there was not enough moisture to support PoPs, so
left tonight`s forecast dry. Gusty SE winds will continue in
Fallon and Carter Counties into the evening due to a low-level jet
ahead of the front. In addition, smoke will increase over the
KSHR area late tonight through Saturday as winds become WNW ahead
of the frontal passage. Added more areas of smoke to this region
than what the HRRR produced in the gridds. Also, expect areas of
smoke W of KBIL tonight into Sat. morning from wildfires in W MT.
Low temps will be a few degrees above normal.
NW flow and building heights will be over the region on Saturday
with high temps a bit above normal, in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Surface high pressure builds S into the area during Sat., and
winds begin shifting to the E and NE. Expect winds to gust to
around 20 mph in the far eastern zones. Smoke should decrease in
the KSHR area in the afternoon through the evening. Upper ridge
continues shifting E into the area Sat. night with surface winds
becoming E. Increased wind speeds in KLVM due to the propensity
of E winds to be stronger in this area than suggested by models.
It will be a cooler night than tonight, with lows in the upper 20s
E to upper 30s central. No fire concerns through this period. Arthur
Sunday through Friday...
High pressure aloft and warming trend will persist, Sunday
through midweek. Above to well above normal high temperatures are
forecast, in the 70s to lower 80s. Fire weather concerns increase
Monday-Wednesday, as minimum relative humidity values drop down
into the teens and 20s. One limiting factor for fire weather
conditions is the lack of a significant wind event during this
timeframe. Though models are depicting an increase in WSW winds on
Wednesday, ahead of an approaching upper trough. The chance for
precipitation will be negligible.
Cluster analysis continues to show a pattern change late next
week, resulting in moderate to high confidence. The latest
ensemble runs depict a cold front associated with an upper trough
sweeping across the region, Wednesday into Thursday. Increased
winds and gusts, as well as cooler and wetter conditions are in
the forecast with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The chance
for precipitation in lower elevations is 30-50%, and over 70% in
the mountains. Accumulating snowfall is expected in the mountains,
and it is possible that some light snow could fall in the
foothills. Temperatures next Friday are currently forecasted to be
in the 50s. While confidence among cluster analysis continues to
increase, it is important to note that changes to the forecast are
still possible.
Matos/Vertz
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Slant range
visibility may be reduced at times around KSHR, due to smoke from
the Elk Fire. A weak cold front will shift winds to the NNW,
overnight and into Saturday morning. Frontal timing is 09z-12z
for KBIL and KMLS, and 12z-15z for KSHR.
Matos
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/068 039/066 042/081 047/079 048/080 046/062 037/055
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 24/W 42/W
LVM 043/073 035/071 039/081 043/079 045/078 037/058 028/051
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/N 46/W 43/W
HDN 044/070 036/070 036/081 042/081 043/082 044/065 034/057
10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 53/W
MLS 043/067 034/061 034/076 042/078 043/079 045/065 036/056
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 42/W
4BQ 048/069 036/063 038/077 044/079 047/082 048/067 038/055
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 42/W
BHK 040/066 029/056 031/070 037/075 041/078 043/067 035/057
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 32/W
SHR 044/073 034/070 037/081 042/081 043/082 042/065 030/054
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 54/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Smoke and haze from wildfires to our west will continue to
impact the area over the next couple of days.
- A cool down is expected over the weekend into the start of
next week. Frost and freeze conditions will be possible.
- Dry conditions will continue through much of the forecast
period. The extended period of dry conditions, combined with a
shift in the weather pattern, low RH values, and gusty winds
may result in some fire weather concerns heading into the
latter part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Smoke and haze continue to impact portions of the area this
afternoon. The smoke is coming from wildfires across portions of
Wyoming, in addition to fires in Idaho and Oregon. The HRRR near-
surface smoke shows much of the smoke moving out of the area to the
south as a cold front pushes through the area. Current observations
are not showing smoke in the area at the surface. Skies are
noticeably hazy.
Surface maps show that the front is aligned northeast to southwest
from Omaha to Smith Center, Kansas. Cooler air is moving into the
region, with low 70s currently in the Ord area. Elsewhere
across the region, temperatures will range from the mid-70s in
Nebraska to the mid-80s near and south of the Kansas-Nebraska
border. There is a small chance of an isolated sprinkle or two
in the eastern part of the CWA tonight. Confidence is not high
that anywhere will receive measurable precipitation.
Friday temperatures will recover as the front moves out and a ridge
sets up to the west of the area. Upper 70s to low 80s will be
expected highs along and north of I-80. Areas south can expect highs
in the low to mid-80s. A second cold front will move into the region
on Saturday, bringing some significantly cooler temperatures (10-15
degrees) to the region. Expected high temperatures on Sunday will
range from the mid-60s to low 70s in Nebraska, and the upper 60s to
mid-70s in north central Kansas.
Temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning and again Monday
night/Tuesday morning remain a concern. Areas along and north
of a line from Phillipsburg, Kansas to Hebron, Nebraska are
currently forecasted to hit the low to mid-30s Monday morning. A
few upper 20s may be possible in portions of Valley County in
Nebraska. Lows in the low to mid-30s will be possible across
south central Nebraska Monday night/Tuesday morning. Given the
continued expectation of temperatures in the 30s, frost and
freeze headlines may need to be considered this weekend.
After a cooler day on Tuesday (highs: 60s), we will start a gradual
warming trend. An upper ridge sets up to the west, with our area
coming under northwest flow. There are some differences in models as
we move toward the end of the forecast period. Models show the
potential for an upper level trough lifting into western Nebraska
Wednesday or Thursday. This could potentially give is a little
precipitation toward the end of the period.
Winds will be stronger toward the end of the forecast period. Along
with some low relative humidity values, near-critical fire weather
conditions may be possible Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Other than a low chance for visibility reduction due to haze,
VFR conditions are expected through the period (80-90% chance).
BKN high clouds gradually diminish into Saturday morning,
although additional high clouds are expected to return during
the day.
Winds go light/variable tonight, and turn to the NW on Saturday.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
746 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable with increasing clouds Saturday.
- Becoming much cooler with periods of rain Saturday night
through Tuesday.
- Temperatures returning to near/above normal by the middle to
the end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Skies are quickly clearing out behind the cold front, which is
already making its way through the far eastern UP. However, some
interesting cloud cover has re-developed throughout the western UP:
one, looking like almost a gravity wave pattern between Isle Royale
and the Keweenaw that is moving onshore, and some cumulus cloud
streets seemingly tied to the higher terrain of the western UP.
Meanwhile, temperatures hover in the 60s in the far western UP, and
int the lower to mid 70s to the east. NW winds remain elevated,
gusting in excess of 30mph across the Keweenaw while gusts to 20-
25mph remain more common across the rest of the UP.
With the ridge over the Northern Plains expanding eastward into the
Upper Midwest tonight and relaxing the pressure gradient, expect
winds to fall back while lingering cloud cover clears out.
Temperatures quickly fall back to reach overnight lows in the 30s
across much of the UP. Closer to the lakeshores, temperatures should
range in the lower to mid 40s. HRRR vertically integrated smoke
persists in bringing in some smoke from upstream wildfires during
the pre-dawn hours, so we may wake up to some hazy skies early
Saturday. However, latest guidance has backed off on the potential
for near-surface smoke.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
High pressure begins to move into the Upper Great Lakes late tonight
behind a departing shortwave to the northeast, ushering mostly quiet
weather through Saturday with high temps in the mid to upper 50s
expected across Upper Michigan. Quiet weather will be short lived,
however, as a building ridge over western Canada forces troughing
over Ontario, and sends a shortwave digging into the UP late
Saturday into Sunday. Upper Michigan becomes placed in the left exit
region of the 500mb jetstreak, allowing sufficient synoptic lift for
widespread precipitation to evolve through Sunday. A secondary
shortwave takes on a similar path Monday, continuing shower activity
through the rest of the day. Strong cold air advection aloft late
Monday into Tuesday will likely kick off lake effect clouds and
showers, since lake surface temps are currently analyzed near 13c
and 850 temps are forecast near -5c. There is a non-zero chance
(<20%) that cooler areas in higher terrain see their first
snowflakes of the year under any stronger showers as wet-bulb zero
heights descend to near 1-2kft. Ensemble guidance suggest portions
of the west and central UP could see rain amounts upwards of 0.50"
through Tuesday (50-75%).
Headed into the midweek, ridging and high pressure building into the
central CONUS begins to dry out the region. Some guidance is quicker
moving lake effect showers out of the eastern UP, and have opted to
keep chance PoPs (25%) through late Tuesday. Otherwise, ridging
reintroduces dry conditions and early fall temps in the 60s and low
70s through the late week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
With one exception, VFR will prevail thru this fcst period at
IWD/CMX/SAW. Satellite imagery shows some patches of stratocu in n
central Upper MI under cooling northerly flow across Lake Superior.
Included ocnl MVFR cigs (2000ft) at SAW for the next few hrs in
anticipation of sct/bkn stratocu passing across the terminal. It`s
possible that may continue thru the night under northerly low-level
flow. Winds will be light, around 5kt or less, at IWD/CMX. Winds at
SAW will decrease from around 10kt this evening to mostly 5kt or
less overnight and Sat.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Ongoing northwesterly gales over the eastern half of the lake
diminish to less than 20 kt tonight. After light winds Saturday,
northeasterlies increase on Sunday to 20-30 kt, strongest west half.
Gale probability is low at less than 20%. North to northeast winds
remain elevated at 20-25 kt through Tuesday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243>251-
264>267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
946 PM MDT Fri Oct 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, dry, and breezy this afternoon and evening, with
elevated fire weather conditions across much of Wyoming.
- No precipitation expected through the middle of next week,
with temperatures continuing to run 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.
- Models show a 60% chance for widespread precipitation and
colder temperatures late next week, Thursday into Friday.
Confidence remains low on timing and total precipitation
amount details.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Breezy winds will continue through sunset this evening, and when
combined with relative humidity in the teens, fire weather
conditions will be elevated.
No major changes in the forecast for the next few days, with
temperatures continuing to run 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
normals as a broad and amplifying ridge resides across Wyoming
this weekend. Winds will be quite light by Wyoming standards,
so fire weather conditions are not expected to be critical.
Early next week, a shortwave cutoff low pressure moves to the
south of the state, but this feature has very little moisture
associated with it, and will be too far south for Wyoming to
receive even mountain precipitation.
The biggest weather story in the coming seven days will be the
large and potentially impactful system moving into the region
late next week, Thursday into Friday. Global models show decent
agreement on the large scale pattern, with an upper level
trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Details such as
precipitation amounts and timing vary widely in these longer
range models, but after several weeks with no precipitation for
most of Wyoming, it`s still significant to see what could be a
widespread precipitation event. Temperatures with this system
would be cold enough for mountain snow, but snow levels are
still uncertain at these longer lead times. Valley and basin low
temperatures Friday morning are currently forecast to be around
freezing for locations east of the Continental Divide, while
teens and 20s are more likely in western Wyoming valleys. If
you still have sensitive plants outside, or sprinkler systems
to winterize, between now and next Thursday could be the last
window before a hard freeze.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 946 PM MDT Fri Oct 11 2024
VFR conditions through the TAF period, with highs clouds and light
winds. A weak backdoor cold front shifts winds northeasterly to
easterly for eastern sites towards the end of the period.
KJAC may continue to get impactful smoke. The latest HRRR run has a
little smoke making its way back into the valley early Saturday
morning. Have left mention out of the TAF, as confidence is not high
for this smoke to reduce visibilities; will have to reevaluate
for the next TAF issuance. Models are showing more smoke making
its way into KJAC near the end of the TAF period.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Monday for WYZ016.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...Wittmann