Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/11/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
959 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep conditions dry through Saturday.
Temperatures trend warmer Friday before trending cooler this weekend
and through the first half of next week. The next system moves into
the region late Saturday night, with rain showers continuing into
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM Update...
As with the previous update, mainly made some adjustments to
cloud cover into early tomorrow. With clear skies to the west,
some areas were running cooler than currently forecast while
areas east of I-81 where clouds continue to hold on were a
degree or two warmer, so adjusted hourly temperatures to account
for this through the next several hours.
635 PM Update...
Pretty quiet forecast over the next couple of days, so not much
has been adjusted at this time. Did make some minor cloud cover
adjustments in the near term with the edge of clearing skies
nearing the BGM area, so reduced cloud cover over western
portions of the Southern Tier, but did increase clouds over the
central and northern Catskills.
330 PM Update...
High pressure over the region will keep conditions dry through the
end of the work week. For tonight, temperatures fall into the mid
30s to low 40s. A few locations may just drop to freezing, mainly in
Oneida County. There is some uncertainty in the temperature forecast
as northwest flow will likely keep skies partly to mostly cloudy
overnight. NAM and HRRR guidance were blended in with NBM and HREF
to increase sky cover overnight. The cloudiest areas will be the
eastern Finger Lakes and the northern portions of the the Catskills.
This cloud cover may keep temps slightly warmer than expected. Gusty
winds will eventually become calmer this evening and tonight. In
areas where skies will be clear to mostly clear and temps in the mid
30s, patchy frost is expected. The Frost Advisory remains unchanged
from this morning`s update.
Flow will become more westerly by late morning/early afternoon.
Skies will be slow to clear out until the directional shift in the
flow does change. Warmer air will be advected into the region,
leading to a pleasant fall day with temperatures climbing into the
60s. A cold front will approach the region late Friday night/early
Saturday morning. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out across
north-central NY during this time, but moisture will be quite
limited. While cooler air does begin to filter into the region
tomorrow night, temperatures will only fall into 40s and 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...
Weak surface ridging will build in from the Great Lakes on
Saturday, keeping conditions dry through the day. NW winds pick
up in the wake of the earlier front, blowing at 10-15 mph with
gusts to 20 mph from the late morning into the evening hours.
Highs will generally range from upper 50s to upper 60s, warmest
towards the Wyoming Valley in PA.
The next weather maker will be in the form of an upper trough
digging into the western Great Lakes Saturday evening, quickly
developing a surface low/frontal system that will move into
OH/PA Sunday morning. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. There is still some disagreement as to how far
south the upper trough digs, which in turn will determine where
the surface low/warm front develops. Trends show rain starting
Sunday morning for at least the Twin Tiers and north. Showers
could develop south into the Wyoming Valley and Poconos, but
confidence in this is not as high as showers developing to the
north. Warm front rain will spread across the CWA Sunday
morning, followed by the low pressure center moving into the
region in the afternoon and moving east of the region by the
evening. Temps will climb into the mid to upper 50s in NY with
low to mid 60s in PA. Rain showers will continue through the
day, shifting to lake enhanced showers Sunday night as a cold
front associated with the surface low moves through the area,
winds shift to the NW, and wrap around moisture from the
departing low moves in. Sunday night lows fall into the low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM Update...
The upper trough will amplify into a closed low that moves into
eastern Canada for the beginning of the week. Several rounds of
weak shortwaves will pivoting around it, moving over our
region. Each shortwave will continue to reinforce cold air
advection via occasionally gusty northwest flow, while also
while also continuing lake effect showers. Highs are only
forecast to be mid 40s to mid 50s during this period, with lows
mainly in the 30s.s. Models show the 540dm 500mb thickness line
making its way into CNY, suggesting a cold enough atmosphere to
support potential wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain showers
at higher elevations south of Syracuse and in the Catskills,
especially at night. Temps will be pretty chilly for this time
of year. Highs Monday in the upper 40s to low 50s will struggle
to get out of the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows
for this period will be in the low to mid 30s.
A ridge will build back into the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, ending lake effect showers and pushing daytime temps
back into the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect clouds are pulling east of BGM, but remain over SYR
and RME. Ceiling heights, however, have climbed into VFR range
across the Lake Plain and Mohawk Valley. Expect clouds to slowly
scatter out over the next several hours at SYR and RME.
Elsewhere, mostly clear and light/variable winds overnight,
favoring NW at times. Some valley fog is expected, with IFR
possible at ELM in the predawn hours.
VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon Friday, with
light NW winds continuing.
.Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR; low-level wind
shear possible late Friday and into Friday night.
Sunday...Showers and associated restrictions possible.
Monday through Tuesday...Showers and associated restrictions at
Central NY terminals.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ009-022>025-036-
037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
658 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Close to record highs on Friday and Saturday
- Colder air moves in Saturday night through Sunday
- Rain chances remain very low and probabilities of frost for the
middle of next week have lowered
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
19z surface and upper air observations show a mid level shortwave
moving through western and central Kansas which has brought in some
upper level smoke and haze across western Kansas. The filtered sun
has slowed warming ab it as temperatures are in the lower 80s. A
surface trough along the US 283 corridor has led to light and
variable winds.
Main weather talking point of interest in the short term is how warm
the temperatures will be for Friday and Saturday. HRRR smoke models
show that the greatest concentration of haze will move to the east
and we should see more in the way of non filtered sunshine on Friday
and possibly Saturday. Both days also have a weak wind
shift/frontal boundary and we will have westerly downslope winds
which will have some compressional heating in the afternoon. 850 mb
temps will stay in the 22-24 (C) range to help with the heating. NBM
probabilities of >90 degrees range from 20-60% along and south of
the front which gives us decent confidence that we should see highs
around 90 tomorrow afternoon. Record highs are in the mid 90s so we
should stay below record but we will make a good run. Saturday will
have a similar weather pattern with a stalled frontal boundary,
sunshine, and highs around 90.
A strong cold front will move through western Kansas late Saturday
night and Sunday morning. Post frontal winds will be breezy out of
the northeast during the day on Sunday ushering in the colder air
and we should see highs in the 70s. With the lack of moisture and
lift we should stay dry.
Long range ensemble clusters show an amplified upper air pattern
with a large closed low over eastern Canada through the Great Lakes
and a ridge over the western CONUS with a cut off low moving into
Nevada on Monday. With this pattern we should see cold air continue
to move through the northern and central plains with a Canadian high
pressure center moving into the northern plains by Tuesday. Ensemble
trends are varying on the brunt of the coldest air and as a result
the frost potential is still low confidence for Tuesday and
Wednesday in our northern counties. Latest NBM probabilities of >32
degrees are now 5-10% and the colder air is further east. We will
have better confidence on where the colder air is going with
subsequent forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Benign aviation weather will continue through this TAF period
valid through the day Friday. The warm air mass in place will
prevent development of low stratus and/or fog in the morning, so
widespread VFR flight category will continue. No major wind
shift is forecast through the period as well, but a weak cold
front will approach western Kansas Friday Night.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
616 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
- Low chance for a few showers and storms this evening /
overnight
- Near record temperatures on Saturday
- Cold front arrives on Sunday
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Weak ascent into mid-level moisture from a shortwave digging through
our upper ridge will maintain low chances for scattered rain. Mid-
level lapse rates are steep enough maintaining weak instability for
isolated convection with marginal low-level shear increasing tonight.
Will keep 20% POPs for scattered rain/weak isolated thunderstorms
across southeast Oklahoma through this afternoon. Latest NAM & GFS
runs and the last couple of HRRR runs hinting for a second area of
rain/weak convection developing late this afternoon across parts of
our southwest CWA just east of an elongated surface across the
Southern High Plains and under another mid-level shortwave
disturbance. Confidence is very low for the activity in our
southwest early on due to other model inconsistencies so will keep
POPs there very low (15%) and monitor radar trends should they need
to be increased.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Will only increase to 20% POPs over a slightly larger area of our
southwest tonight for scattered rain with a few weak storms through
sunrise Friday. Will also maintain but slightly increase (20-30%)
rain/storm POPs across southcentral/southeast Oklahoma for late
tonight through sunrise after the low-level jet starts up as well.
Otherwise, thermal ridging over the Southwestern U.S. builds further
eastward over the Southern Plains keeping our heating trend going
with persisting mid 90s highs across southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas and becoming hotter with lower 90s across the rest of
our area. NBM default was a bit too weak with the Friday afternoon
wind speeds after late morning mixing across our southwest CWA so
bumped them up slightly in that area using the NBM 90th percentile
winds. The hotter than normal temperatures combined with very dry
air across the Southern High Plains producing very low relative
humidities by the afternoon and gusty southwest winds will elevate
the wildfire danger across southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas on Friday afternoon through sundown. Our heating trend peaks
on Saturday with upper 90s to near triple digit highs in a few
places across our southwest with mid-90s highs elsewhere. Based on
warmer 850 mb temperatures, did go slightly hotter than NBM using
the CONSMOS nudged 50%. Elevated fire weather conditions will again
be possible across parts of our southwest on Saturday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
--Cooler weather arrives next week
By Sunday, the aforementioned cold front will advance southward
across the Southern Plains as a mid/upper-level trough amplifies
across the Great Lakes. The wind shift should progress southward
through the day Sunday; however, the coldest air will likely lag
behind the initial wind shift. Some locations, especially across
northern Oklahoma, may experience a non-diurnal temperature trend
by late Sunday afternoon.
Uncertainty has increased on the magnitude of cold air that will
advect into the Southern Plains as the ensemble spread has
increased on the track of the surface high in the front`s wake. A
surface high track farther west, across the Southern Plains, will
result in colder air in Oklahoma and north Texas. In contrast, a
surface high moving across the Midwest will result in a glancing
blow of cold air and a quick warm up toward the middle part of
next week. The National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilistic
guidance now has a nearly ~25 deg F temperature spread between the
10th and 90th percentile for Tuesday given the large spread among
guidance.
For now, forecast highs have trended upward Monday through
Wednesday with generally low 70s to low 80s deg F as the ensemble
mean of the guidance is generally warmer. Given the increased
ensemble spread and warming trend, the probability of low
temperatures below 40 deg F has decreased to 30 to 50% across
parts of northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Winds will be generally from SE to S this TAF period, mostly light
with some breeziness near and southeast of I-44 around midday
tomorrow. There is an outside chance for a shower or two with
associated gusty winds in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas
overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 63 91 63 94 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 62 94 60 98 / 20 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 65 96 65 97 / 20 0 0 0
Gage OK 54 93 55 96 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 59 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 59 90 63 94 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14