Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/10/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will end tonight with partly
cloudy and cool conditions. High pressure builds in tomorrow with
sunshine mixed with clouds with below normal temperatures. A very
cold night is expected Thursday night into Friday with some areas of
frost, but fair and dry weather will last into the first half of the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...The 00z KALY sounding shows a moist, very well- mixed
profile up to about 500 mb with lake effect moisture streaming
in about the base of upper-level troughing. Shower coverage has
decreased as showers have weakened and moved out of much of the
region, with just scattered coverage in portions of the Eastern
Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley and northwest Litchfield. Showers
will continue to decrease south of I-90 with additional slight
chances to chances for showers in the Southwest Adirondacks
through tomorrow morning. Some wet snowflakes could mix in with
rain at the highest peaks where temperatures fall into the low
30s. Made some minor adjustments to temperatures and PoPs with
this update, but all else remains on track. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 359 PM EDT... Cyclonic flow persists aloft with the mid
and upper level trough over southeast Canada and the Northeast.
A strong short-wave continues to move across the region with a
cold pool aloft of around -25C at H500. Steep mid-level lapse
rates are present over the northern half of the forecast area
where the latest RAP analysis indicate mid level lapse rates of
6.5 to 7 C/km. Some weak elevated instability is upstream near
Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill Plateau. A rumble of thunder is
possible. We have the highest PoPs for numerous showers
northwest of the Capital Region with chance to slight chance to
south and east. Some wet snowflakes may briefly mix in over the
southern Dacks early tonight.
The short-wave will pass early tonight based on the latest 3-km
HRRR and Namnest and the showers will diminish. The skies will
be mostly cloudy early and then will become partly cloudy or
mostly clear southwest of the Albany well after midnight. Some
patchy frost may occur where the growing season continues, but
no head lines Thu morning. A cool night will occur with lows in
the 30s to lower 40s. We went close to the latest MAV/MET/ECM
guidance for lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The mid and upper level trough axis moves downstream on
Thursday, as a sfc anticyclone builds in from the Great Lakes
Region. The strong subsidence from the ridge will yield partly
to mostly sunny skies. Deeper mixing and the lingering sfc pressure
gradient will allow for brisk northwest winds 10-20 mph during
the day. Max temps will run cooler than normal by 5-10 degrees.
Max temps will be in the 50s in the valleys and hill towns with
40s and a few upper 30s over the mtns.
Thu night the sfc anticyclone builds in from with clear skies
and light to calm winds. Areas to a widespread frost is possible
outside the Hudson River Valley and Mohawk Valley. The growing
season ends Oct 11th for the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs,
southern VT, northern and central Taconics, and the Lake George
Region. We are expecting temps in the lower to mid 30s, so head
lines may be necessary in several areas. Most likely frost
advisories, but a few places could have a freeze. Lows will be
in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Expect heights to rise aloft over the region on Friday with
temps rebounding back to normal. It will be a pleasant Autumn
day with max temps near to slightly above normal with highs in
the mid and upper 60s below 500 feet in elevation and 50s to
lower 60s over the higher terrain. A warm front and weak
disturbance may increase clouds with a few showers over the
Adirondacks Fri night. Lows will be milder in the 40s to around
50F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moves east of the region Saturday morning with high
pressure building in from Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region.
Temps will be seasonable with good mixing in the wake of the front,
as downsloping off the Adirondacks and the Catskills may allow temps
to spike up in the Hudson River Valley. It will be breezy. Max
temps will be in the 60s to lower 70s in the valleys (with the
warmest temps in the mid Hudson Valley) and 50s to lower 60s over
the hills and mtns. A mostly clear and cold night is expected
Saturday night with the sfc anticylone moving overhead. Lows will
fall into the 30s with some upper 20s over the southern Dacks.
Patchy to localized areas of frost may be possible.
Sunday into Monday...The mid and upper-level flow becomes zonal.
over the Northeast ahead of the next mid and upper level trough.
Clouds increase, as the wave approaches from the lower Great Lakes
Region. Some isentropic lift increases ahead of the wave and warm
front. The track is still variable on the medium range guidance and
ensembles. Probabilistic guidance indicates high chance and likely
PoPs for Sunday. Much cooler temps were accepted from the NBM this
cycle for Sunday with clouds racing in early and then the potential
pcpn. Highs will run below normal with 50s to lower 60s in the
lower elevations and mid 40s to mid 50s over the higher terrain. The
wave pulls east of the region Sunday night into Monday. Some of the
pcpn may transition to wet snow over the higher terrain north and
west of the Capital Region. It is a very strong upper level
disturbance tapping some cold air aloft. Some wet snow accums may
be possible. Lows fall back into the 30s to lower 40s with some
upper 20s in the Adirondack Park. A strong mid and upper level
trough over southeast Canada, the Great Lakes Region and the
Northeast will keep showery pcpn over the region through the day
with brisk conditions. Highs will be below climatological normals by
5 to 10 degrees.
The cyclonic flow aloft continues into the mid week before some
ridging builds in with more tranquil conditions. Upslope and lake
effect rain showers will occur on Tuesday with some snow showers
over the southern Dacks and southern Greens possible each night.
Drier conditions are expected by Wednesday. Lows will be in the
upper 20s to upper 30s each night with highs in the 40s and 50s each
day. Some colder readings are possible over the high peaks. CPC`s
Days 8 to 14 temp and pcpn outlook for eastern NY and western New
England for the third week of October is forecasting near normal
temps and below normal pcpn.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this evening despite lake enhanced cloud covers and showers
present throughout the area. Ceilings will remain within VFR
thresholds throughout the evening before breaking apart by early
tomorrow morning at KGFL/KALB/KPOU. Ceiling heights at KPSF look
to lower into the MVFR threshold overnight, courtesy of passing
showers, before breaking apart tomorrow morning and returning
to VFR conditions. Sustained wind speeds throughout the
overnight period will generally remain at or below 10 kt out of
the northwest before increasing tomorrow morning up to 15 kt
with gusts up to 22 kt.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Columbus Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gant
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A continued warming trend through Friday with highs in the
70s and lower 80s for Thursday and Friday.
- Relatively dry conditions persist through the rest of the week
with precipitation chances (20-50%) returning late Saturday
and Sunday, primarily east of the Mississippi River.
- A more substantial cool down comes by the weekend with below
normal temperatures into next week. Frost/freeze will be possible
areawide with morning low temperatures falling near the freezing
mark during the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Overview:
Current water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb heights over the CONUS
this afternoon show a fairly straightforward but interesting
synoptic pattern with a broader upper-level trough situated east of
the Great Lakes and a building ridge/split flow pattern to our west.
On the southern branch of the split flow regime, a shortwave across
the southeast CONUS with accelerating upper-level winds behind it
will be the instigating mechanism for pushing Major Hurricane Milton
across the Florida Peninsula later this evening and tonight.
Along the western periphery of the ridge situated over the Great
Plains, shortwave troughing can be noted on it that will
continue to move through portions of Canada.
Tonight - Friday: Continued Warming Trend
Heading through this week, the aforementioned ridge across the Great
Plains will continue to nudge its way into the region allowing
for temperatures to trend above normal through Friday. Thursday
and Friday appear to be the warmest days with the 09.07z NBM
probabilities showing fairly respectable probabilities (40-80%)
for highs greater than 80 degrees east of a Rochester-Spring
Valley- Oelwein line. As we head into Friday, an upstream
shortwave with a corresponding surface cold front will be
situated north of the local area. As this system pushes
southeast, the ridge west of the region will begin to flatten as
it works its way into the local area. However, enough warm
advection ahead of the frontal passage Friday afternoon that
high temperatures will stay above average with the 09.07z NBM
temperature probabilities (40-80%) favoring locations south of
the MN/IA state line for highs above 80 degrees. As the front
passes from north to south, surface flow will shift to northerly
and usher in a cooler airmass into the evening hours.
Saturday - Sunday: Overall Cooling with Rain Chances
After Friday`s cold frontal passage temperatures will be more
seasonable on Saturday with zonal to northwesterly flow aloft.
Median temperatures for Saturday in the 09.00z grand ensemble
(GEFS/EC ensemble/Canadian ensemble) keep in the 60s across the
local area with minimal 10th to 90th deviation. As we head later
into the evening hours on Saturday and into the overnight, a more
robust trough will descend out of central Canada and into the Upper
Midwest. As this occurs, a surface cold front along with a
tightening pressure gradient will be an instigating mechanism for
precipitation, especially east of the Mississippi River. Generally
speaking, highest probabilities for measurable precipitation remain
across north-central Wisconsin with high values (60-80% chance) in
both the 09.06z GEFS/EC ensemble. Probabilities decrease as you head
south and west. Overall not expecting more significant QPF with this
descending trough at this time as it has very little moisture to
work with given median precipitable water values of around 0.5"
Saturday evening and decreasing into Sunday in the 09.00z grand
ensemble. Additionally, with the frontal passage and tightening
surface pressure gradient into Sunday, winds will be fairly breezy
with the 09.00z EC ensemble favoring medium probabilities (30-50%)
for wind gusts over 35 mph across northeast IA. However, an
interesting trend in the EC has noted decreasing probabilities for
this over the past few iterations.
Monday - Wednesday: Chilly Start to Next Week
Behind the aforementioned trough, a colder airmass will work
its way in by Monday morning with low temperatures falling into
the 30s. As northerly flow maximizes by mid-day on Monday, 850mb
temperatures will decrease with latest deterministic models
(EC/GFS) keeping values around -1 to -4 C. As a result, median
high temperatures in the 07.00z grand ensemble during this
timeframe in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Still roughly 8-10
degrees of 10th to 90th spread across the local area in the
07.00z grand ensemble suite though with some disagreements on
exactly how the trough will be oriented. Additionally, with the
overall cyclonic regime would see some spotty showers develop
into early next week. With added northerly flow off of Lake
Superior would not rule out a couple showers sneaking into
north-central WI (Maybe a snowflake or two mixed in if during
the right time of day?) early next week. Regardless, this core
of cold air remains in place heading into Tuesday morning which
currently is progged to be the coldest period across guidance
with temperatures in the national blend falling near the
freezing mark for much of the local area. As a result,
frost/freeze concerns will be prevalent areawide. Eventually,
this trough begins to eject eastward with a upper-level ridge
building in behind towards the middle of next week.
Consequently, would expect to see some warming however
confidence is low on how this trend would unfold at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
VFR conditions expected. Some smoke will be in the region from
fires out in the western US. This smoke is not expected to impact
surface conditions and visibilities. Light southeast winds will
transition to southerly winds later Thursday morning.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...Cecava
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazy skies from another push of wildfire smoke on Thursday with
filtered sunshine could keep temperatures 1-2 degrees cooler than if
we had full sun
- Dry conditions the next 7 days
- A cold front will move in on Sunday and colder air will be
present through early next week which could lead to our first
frost of the season by Tuesday/Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
19z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a broad upper
level ridge over the central and western portions of the country
with a 588 dm high over the desert southwest and northwest flow in
Nebraska and Kansas. An embedded shortwave and weak upper low is
moving south and east into northern Nebraska. Surface high pressure
is located in Missouri with a weak trough/wind shift line along the
Kansas/Colorado border which is leading to light and variable winds.
Tonight into Thursday the upper level shortwave will move from
Nebraska into northcentral and northeast Kansas. The main feature
with the shortwave is HRRR smoke models showing another round of
higher concentrated smoke in the upper levels of the atmosphere
arriving during the overnight and lasting through the day. This
should lead to another colorful sunrise and filtered sun during the
day. As a result of the higher amounts of smoke...lowered MaxT 1-2
degrees but it should still be warm this time of year with mid to
upper 80s. CAM models are hinting at some rain/storms developing
with the shortwave but should be mainly south and east of the
forecast area.
Ensembles keep the upper air pattern as a ridge through Sunday but
it should be mainly a more dampened ridge. With sunshine and warm
lower and mid level temperatures we should see highs in the upper
80s to low 90s for Friday and Saturday. Ensembles then show a much
larger amplification of the ridge as a large trough develops over
the Great Lakes which will introduce a cold front in the northern
and central plains on Sunday. This weather pattern continues
through at least next Wednesday so we will continue to see cold air
advection through the middle parts of next week. Hints of frost are
showing up for next Tuesday and Wednesday in our northern zones with
probabilities of >32 at 20-25% north of highway 50 which
climatologically lines up well with our first frost of the fall.
Rain chances through the entire period continue to be 0% for at
least the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue through an hour or
two after sunset, mainly affecting the GCK terminal. Otherwise,
quiet aviation weather will continue with light winds forecast
tonight through Thursday as a light pressure gradient will
persist across western Kansas. Flight category is expected to
remain VFR through the period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1028 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warm conditions expected through Thursday. Cooling Friday
through the first half of next week.
- Thick wildfire smoke will continue to give our skies a milky
appearance for the next few days.
- Thursday will be marginally breezy with relative humidity
falling below 30%. As a result, fire danger will be in the
elevated category.
- Sunday night/early Monday morning will be our first fairly
widespread risk of frost for some areas as overnight lows
fall at or below freezing. The potential will be even higher
for Monday night/Tuesday morning with widespread mid to upper
20s for lows.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
An upper level shortwave residing over south central SD and north
central NE has produced a few mid clouds and light echoes on radar
through much of the morning and afternoon. Even so, with the very
dry low levels, the only report of rain so far has been a trace at
Winner. These clouds and sprinkles will continue to diminish through
the late afternoon. Otherwise, current satellite indicates smoke
aloft continuing to stream over the region. Latest HRRR smoke fields
would show this smoke persisting at least into Thursday, though
little is expected to reach the surface with only minor reductions
in visibility expected.
Not much change into Thursday with upper level ridging dominating
over the central CONUS and surface high pressure remaining
entrenched/strengthening through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region
for tonight and tomorrow. This 32will keep a light southerly
flow over our area during the period. With light winds and
mainly clear skies, temperatures will fall into the mid to upper
40s tonight - perhaps a couple of degrees cooler in lower lying
areas. Anonymously warm 850 mb temperatures (in the 90th or
greater percentile with respect to climatology) will continue
into Thursday, warming even slightly more than today - and we
are looking at highs into the mid and upper 80s for Thursday
afternoon. While there will be elevated fire danger with the
very warm temperatures and afternoon RH values around 30
percent, winds will not be especially strong - gusting around 15
to 20 mph in the afternoon. As a result, critical fire danger
is not expected - though precautions should be taken to prevent
the start and spread of wildfires.
Changes are in store by Friday as the upper level ridge flattens out
as energy tracks across southern Canada/the Northern Plains. Related
to that, a surface cold front will sweep across the area during the
day on Friday, and with cold air advection behind the front,
temperatures will be considerably lower for much of the area.
Although temperatures will be dependent on the frontal timing, at
this point we are looking at highs from the upper 60s through the
Highway 14 corridor up to near 80 through the Sioux City/Storm Lake
corridor. As has been the pattern of late, no precipitation is
expected with the system. Not much change for Saturday with dry
conditions and highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
More significant changes are expected for next week as an upper
level jet dives southward from central Canada into the Northern
Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes region for later
on Saturday into Sunday - as an upper level trough deepens over the
eastern half of the CONUS into midweek. This will put our area in a
northwesterly upper level flow, and will be reflected in our
temperatures as highs drop into the 50s to near 60 for Sunday
through Wednesday behind a strong cold front slated to move through
our area on Saturday night. With that will also come a downward
trend in overnight temperatures - with lows into the upper 20s to
30s for Sunday night and Monday night. Ensembles would suggest that
the coldest night may be Monday night, with both the GEFS and GEPS
ensembles showing a 50-70% probability of lows below 32 degrees on
that night. The ECMWF ensembles are lower however, with
probabilities of only 10-20%. Unfortunately, it looks to remain dry
through the entire period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
VFR throughout the period, with thick wildfire smoke aloft
continuing. Winds remain calm and marginally variable overnight,
becoming southerly throughout the morning hours. Winds are expected
to be sustained in the lower to mid teens, with gusts in the teens
to possibly lower 20s throughout the afternoon before decreasing
into the early overnight hours.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...APT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
733 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the rest of
the work week, with highs in the 80s each day.
- Dry conditions continue for most of the forecast period. An isolated
sprinkle cannot be entirely ruled out this evening/tonight,
particularly in our Kansas counties.
- Confidence has increased in the potential for frost/freeze conditions
Sunday night through Wednesday morning. The coldest morning
appears to be Tuesday, with lows in the upper 20 to mid-30s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Based on surface observations and webcam imagery, added haze to
the forecast this evening. Used the HRRR Smoke model as a
guideline for this as it looks more representative to what we
are seeing in the observations. Impacts to visibility are
expected to remain west of Highway 281.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 503 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
The unseasonably warm conditions continue this afternoon as an upper
trough drops into northwestern Kansas. Expected high temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 80s across the region. Haze from
wildfire smoke continues to be an issue today into tomorrow for the
area. The HRRR near surface model does show some slight dissipation
of smoke over south central Nebraska and north central Kansas
this evening into tonight. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke
shows smoke continuing to circulate into the area, presumably
from wildfires in central Idaho and western Wyoming. Heading
into tonight, temperatures will be a little chilly the further
west you go. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s for areas
along and west of a line from Phillipsburg, Kansas to Grand
Island, Nebraska. Areas east/northeast of this line will be in
the low to mid-50s. There is a small chance of a few sprinkles
this evening into tonight for areas mainly south of Interstate
80.
Expect another dry and summer-like day Thursday as the upper trough
dives to the southeast and a ridge moves in from the west. Relative
humidity values will fall into the mid-teens to mid-20s for areas
along and west of a line from Ord to Kearney to Phillipsburg. Areas
east of this line will range from the mid-20s to low 30s for RH
values. Winds are expected to remain fairly light, generally out of
the south around 5-10mph with gusts to around 15mph. This should
help limit any major concerns for rapid fire growth if something
were to start.
Heading into Friday and the weekend, we are expecting our first fall-
like temperatures of the season. A cold front will move in from the
northwest on Friday, bringing in some cooler air to the northwestern
part of the forecast area. This could set up a decent temperature
gradient as afternoon highs will be in the mid-70s for areas along
and west of a line from Lexington to Spalding. Elsewhere, low
to mid-80s are expected for south central Nebraska. North
central Kansas can expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight lows will range from the low 40s in the north to the
low to mid-50s in north central Kansas.
The cooler air continues to push in as another front moves in on
Saturday. High temperatures are currently expected to range from the
mid-70s to low 80s in Nebraska, with 80s for our north central
Kansas counties. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. By Sunday, high
temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s.
Confidence is increasing in the possibility of some frosty and
possibly freezing conditions over the weekend. Sunday night into
Monday morning, lows will be around 36 degrees or less for areas
along and north of Interstate 80. A few isolated areas in Valley,
County may near the freezing mark.
The coldest night of the forecast period will be Monday
night/Tuesday morning. Widespread temperatures in the upper 20s to
low 30s are expected. This cold has been consistent over the past
few days between model runs, so confidence is increasing in this
solution. Those with outdoor interests should continue to monitor
the forecast over the coming days for additional details.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Light southeast winds this evening will become light and
variable overnight and Thursday morning, then become southerly
at 7-9 kts Thursday afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear
through the period with perhaps a few cirrus.
Hazy conditions from wildfires out west have made their way east
as far as KEAR this evening, so added haze as a TEMPO group to
the KEAR TAF through 04Z this evening.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hickford
DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Hickford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
948 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Smoky horizons and skies are forecast for the next couple of
days, though noticeable drops in visibility and air quality
are not forecast at this time.
- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will persist
through the duration of the work week.
- Near-average temperatures will return in the wake of a dry
cold frontal passage this weekend. Critical fire weather
conditions may accompany the frontal passage on Saturday.
- Low temperatures in the 30s are expected from Sunday night
onward. Frost/Freeze conditions may occur as a result. Monday
night looks to be the coldest with the entire area potentially
at/just below freezing. Some isolated locales may see the
upper 20s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2024
A weak, quick moving shortwave across E Colorado may lead to
some virga/sprinkles across the Colorado counties and into NW
Kansas overnight as some subtle mid level moisture moves across
the area. With dew points forecasted to be in the mid 20s to low
30s would be shocked if its anything more than that. For
tomorrow the HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke continues to
suggest that some linger haze may be present aloft, however
opted to just increase the cloud cover to represent this as no
visibility or ceiling restrictions are anticipated. Then
looking ahead to our next cold front on Friday morning, both the
NAM and the GFS show 4-6mb pressure rises in wake of the front
so I wound up increasing winds to the 90th percentile NBM. We
did have a similar set up a few weeks ago where pressure rises
of this magnitude wound up outperforming models on the strength
of the wind in wake of the front as some gusts of 45-50 mph
were observed.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 319 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Added in a corridor of slight chance pops from Gove down through
Greeley county through this evening. An advancing trough/
pseudo dry line is moving to the SE across the area. Dew points
in the upper 40s to low 50s ahead of this looks to be enough for
a few showers/storms to develop. RAP mid level moisture
suggests additional storm potential back through Greeley/Wichita
counties through around 01Z is possible. Severe weather is not
anticipated with this activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2024
A ridge centered over the Four Corners continues to be the
dominant feature. However, shortwave troughs topping the ridge
axis and moving through the northern plains will result in a
couple of dry frontal passages and more seasonal temperatures by
late in the weekend. Will manage another hot day on Thursday
with highs once again in the upper 80s with some minor
visibility reductions in the 7-9SM range due to the smoke from
Wyoming wildfires. The first front will move through late
Thursday night/early Friday morning. Winds will shift to the
north/northeast behind the front with gusts of 20-30 mph, then
diminishing winds by late Friday morning. High temperatures will
range from the middle 70s in northeast Colorado well behind the
front to the middle 80s in west central Kansas where
temperatures will be impacted the least. Temperatures briefly
rebound on Saturday into the 80s ahead of the next frontal
passage which occurs Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts appear
similar behind the front in the 20-30 mph range, and with the
afternoon timing may see some brief fire weather concerns behind
the front. Lows Saturday night will range from the upper 30s in
northeast Colorado to the middle 40s in Kansas, and highs on
Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s in the entire area. Lows
Sunday night will drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with
some mid 30s possible across northern Yuma County as well as
southwest Nebraska, where may see some patchy frost.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2024
More seasonal temperatures expected this period with an
amplified ridge over the Rockies resulting in northwest flow
aloft and a southeast flow at the surface recycling cool air
around a high over the upper midwest. High temperatures will be
in the 60s and 70s and lows mainly in the 30s. There will be a
risk for frost and/or freezing temperatures each morning, but
appears to be no worse than a light freeze at the moment for
most locations. GFS hints at some light precipitation chances
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in northeast Colorado with a
shortwave trough coming out of the central Rockies, but ECMWF
is dry and with the current pattern will also keep the forecast
dry.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Wed Oct 9 2024
Weak shortwave moving across the area is bringing in some cloud
cover and perhaps some virga/sprinkles into NW Kansas overnight
but no aviation impacts are currently anticipated. Winds will
remain less than 10 knots for the duration of the TAF period.
Winds are forecast to veer and eventually become northerly at
KGLD before further veering to the east at each terminal before
finally a predominant southerly wind Thursday evening.
Continuing monitoring for isolated patches of smoke/haze across
the area. KGLD dropped to 6 SM earlier along with some locally
lower visibilities across E Colorado but all have since
recovered. It is possible there area more of these around which
may impact a terminal but they appear so fine they are very
difficult to pick up on satellite at night. Additional upper
level haze will remain across the region tomorrow but no further
flight reductions are currently forecasted.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg