Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/07/24


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost possible tonight/early Monday morning in the James and Big Sioux river valleys. - Dry and mild conditions through next week. Temperatures peak Thursday with highs in the mid 80s, or about 15 to 25 degrees above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Surface high pressure will spread across the area overnight, bringing light winds, clear skies (at least initially tonight), and chilly temperatures in the 30s. Blended in some NBM25th guidance for lows tonight, given the synoptic setup and dry air in place. On top of that, tanked the James River valley a couple more degrees. This did lead to frost output/potential in both the James and Big Sioux river valleys. Did discuss possibility for localized frost advisories in these locations, but will opt for other avenues like HWO/social media and AFD/synopsis, etc. due to potential of being somewhat localized to the favorable colder valley locations. Evening shift may want to consider once again. Hinted at this earlier, but there is some indication in the HREF cloud cover ensemble mean of a mid-level deck overspreading the northern CWA after 06Z tonight towards 12Z. This could spoil nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions. Winds stay light on Monday as the surface high slowly shifts southeast away from the area. Light south/southeast surface winds are expected to develop through the day, with warming temps aloft moving in once again, translating to highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. HRRR Smoke product does show decent concentrations of smoke aloft moving back into the CWA tomorrow, mainly western areas. Nothing really showing up for near-surface smoke. Constructed sky grids to reflect increasing sky cover where smoke aloft concentrations are highest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Little change in the overall pattern and forecast with recent model runs. Zonal flow for the most part, with a wave that zips to our north late in the week. Main features through the extended are the anomalously warm mid level airmass (1-2 standard deviations above climo at 850mb) resulting in temperatures through Thursday 10 to 25 degrees above normal. GEFS/NAEFS continue to suggest daily min rH values around 20 to 30 percent. Not much for a gradient through Thursday however. The frontal system Thursday night/Friday morning is still several days away so not a lot of confidence with respect to timing/intensity, however current model/ensembles suggest southerly flow ahead of the system doesn`t appear too strong, nor does the cold advection side, with a lack of anomalies at 850mb in either of the NAEFS u or v components. NBM 1 standard deviation above mean winds only top out around 25kts, with a mean that is below Red Flag criteria. As for moisture, while a few GEFS ensemble members happen to generate 0.01 inches of moisture with what is essentially a weak northwest flow wave, not going to put much stock in the model runs out that far. Latest NBM has also dropped POPs below 10%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions and light winds are expected through Monday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
540 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions on Monday, with minimum humidity values in the teens and gusty winds possible through the morning hours. - Continued dry weather and above normal temperatures expected to occur through the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Short term forecast will focus on the return to above normal temperatures and dry weather for the foreseeable future, with a flat upper level ridge remaining firmly in place across the Intermountain West and High Plains. Ultimately, held off on deviating forecast temperatures too far from the NBM, with the NAEFS mean 700mb temperatures in the climatological average on Monday and Tuesday. However, would not be surprised to see 700mb temperatures rise into the 90th percentiles with the current atmospheric setup. Regardless, will likely see temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Monday as compared to the weekend, with daytime highs in the mid 70s for southeast Wyoming and into the mid 80s for Western Nebraska. Main forecast challenge will include possible fire weather conditions tomorrow as embedded shortwave disturbances undercut the main flow, kicking up wind speeds through tomorrow. NBM v4.2 Probability of Exceeding 22kts has begun picking up on these features, with a high likelihood of greater than 22 knot winds and 20% to 40% probabilities for greater than 34 knots for areas along and east of the Laramie Range. Some uncertainty exists for the presence of fire weather for tomorrow, with the HREF probabilities of reaching critical fire weather thresholds remaining too low across the CWA. Additionally, ongoing smoky and hazy conditions tomorrow will likely bring temperatures down a few degrees than is otherwise expected, with the HRRR having visibility reductions of 3sm to 5sm. With the daytime high temperature uncertainty and the lack of HiRes model support, will hold off on any Fire Weather Headlines at this time. However, atmospheric conditions will support elevated fire weather concerns tomorrow through the afternoon. Otherwise, prolonged warm and dry conditions expected for the remainder of the forecast period, with daytime highs in the high 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday and continued fire weather concerns, as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The models are in strong agreement with the upper level ridge persisting through Friday. This will continue to favor above normal temperatures and little or no precipitation. This upper level ridge axis is expected to shift slowly east into the Plains through the end of the week. This will result in downsloping winds as the upper level flow turns more west- southwest along with warmer temperatures. We will need to keep an eye on the potential for records again towards the end of the week. Not really expecting Red Flag criteria being met through the week either, due to wind speeds remaining at or below 20 mph. However, don`t be fooled, afternoon humidity levels will be very low in the 10 to 20 percent range. The potential for rapid fire spread is still very high which can get out of control very quickly due to dry fuels. Saturday and Saturday night still looks like a timeframe we may see at least a 10 degree cool down. This is due to the models and ensembles showing an 700-500mb open wave moving through western Wyoming and Colorado. If this pans out, we may see a slight chance of light rain in the mountains and possibly the higher elevation plains above 6kft on Saturday into Saturday night. Would certainly not get your hopes up as this upper level ridge is trending to keeping it grip over the area with more upper level ridging building into the area next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VFR is expected for all terminals overnight into approximately 12Z Monday. We will be slowly increasing in coverage of HZ/FU overnight, and it will likely cause temporary VIS reductions to MVFR at times on Monday. Wind gusts should remain below 15 knots overnight, and occasionally gust up to 20-25 knots for SE WY terminals on Monday afternoon through 0Z Tuesday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...REC AVIATION...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
935 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) expected today. - Smoke/haze, perhaps some near surface smoke is possible Monday afternoon across eastern Colorado. - A warming trend will follow, during the work week. Dry conditions will persist throughout the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 646 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 For tonight brought overnight lows down a few degrees across the east as skies will remain clear and winds light. Low temperatures in the upper 30s are currently forecast across Red Willow, Norton, and Decatur counties. As for tomorrow, added in haze into the forecast mainly across the west as smoke from fires across Wyoming and Idaho move into the area along a weak front during the afternoon hours. Some near surface smoke may become an issue as well as some runs of guidance are suggesting some visibility reductions. If this does occur then very poor air quality may become a concern. The past several runs of the HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke and Near Surface Smoke has been fairly consistent with the coverage and the timing of this. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Synoptic Overview: A high-latitude (40-70N) omega block.. the center (ridge) of which extends northward from the northern Rockies to the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.. will be the dominant synoptic feature over North America at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, at lower latitudes (25-35N), an active southern stream jet in the Pacific will usher a positively tilted trough ashore the southern Pacific Coast /Baja, CA/ Mon- Mon night. Upper level (~300 mb) winds in the lee of the central Rockies, presently characterized by modest /30-40 knot/ northwest flow.. will back to the west Mon-Mon night as the aforementioned southern stream trough progresses ashore the southern Pacific Coast. Sensible Weather Conditions: A subsident synoptic regime will persist over the region in this period. Expect clear skies, dry conditions and a warming trend.. with predominantly light winds. A period of near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions is possible over portions of eastern Colorado on Monday.. mainly in Yuma/Kit Carson counties where deep vertical mixing may yield somewhat breezy (15-25 mph) NW winds during the afternoon. Overall, critical fire weather potential appears marginal (at best).. and limited in scope. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Upper ridge moves little through the week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Upper trough next weekend will result in a Pacific cold frontal passage Saturday night according to the latest timing. However, models starting to show that the upper trough will be deflected into the northern plains over the ridge, which would result in a continuation of the dry conditions. High temperatures will be in the 80s through Thursday, with some lower 90s possible by Friday and Saturday, before cooling into the 70s on Sunday behind the front. Despite afternoon relative humidity minimums in the teens each day through Saturday, overall lack of wind will preclude fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 932 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VFR conditions remain across the area along with light winds around 5-8 knots. Winds will become southerly across the area west to east with some gusts around 20 knots starting mid morning and lasting through the afternoon. Continue to monitor the potential for some smoke/haze moving across E Colorado Monday afternoon with a low chance (5%) of creating flight category reductions for KGLD and even less chances for KMCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1020 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses New England tomorrow, bringing a period of rain tonight and tomorrow. High pressure at the surface brings generally drier and cooler conditions for Tuesday through Thursday, along with the chance for areas of frost. An upper level low slowly moves southeastward across New England through Thursday. The high then builds in from the southwest late in the week, bringing a warming trend going into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Update... Although the number of flashes in the approaching line continues to slowly diminish late this evening, have added the chance for thunder in the near term portion of the forecast for all of New Hampshire and portions of western Maine tonight. The latest HRRR has this precipitation crossing the Connecticut River Valley around 06Z which appears to be a little slow compared to current radar reflectivity images out of Upstate New York and Vermont. Have raised pops for tonight based on the current trends. Have lowered min temperatures as we are already near forecast lows in a few places. Otherwise, just cosmetic changes to the near term portion of the forecast. Prev Disc... Interesting setup this evening between low level moisture encompassing eastern portions of the forecast area and a system approaching from western New York State. In the middle, mostly clear skies continue over westernmost Maine and New Hampshire with high thin clouds crossing that region. Clouds will continue to gradually thicken overnight from the Gulf of Maine as well from New York State. This will keep temperatures milder tonight, generally in the 40s for overnight lows without significant changes from north to south. Rain will enter the region from west to east after midnight which is consistent with the latest HRRR. Otherwise, little in the way of changes to the ongoing forecast package. Prev Disc... High pressure will drift east tonight gradually bringing return flow to the region. Height falls ahead of a cold front moving across the Great Lakes region will support increasing showers overnight from west to east. The dry air in the mid-levels will take some time to erode, delaying the onset of the showers until after midnight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s across the region, with some low 50s along the immediate coasts. Coldest temps may occur shortly after midnight, with some subtle warming with the SE flow through daybreak. Warm air advection early morning should support some areas of 1 mile or less visibilities, particularly along the midcoast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread low stratus and rain will support a dreary conditions Monday with only a few degrees of warming possible throughout the day. The showers will start clearing by the afternoon in SW NH where highs could make a run for 60. Otherwise the rest of the area will peak in the mid 50s. Warm air advecting will support a line of moderate rain, but forcing looks insufficient (<500 j/kg) for convection. Can`t rule out a stray lightning strike but it doesn`t seen likely enough to add coverage in the forecast. The rainfall will be across northern Maine, though some enhancement in the mountains will favor higher amounts in the S facing slopes. Looking at widespread 0.5", with higher amounts nearer to an inch in the hills. A weak secondary front will will trigger a few additional showers in the mountains late Monday, but otherwise clearing expected. A cool night is in store for the region with partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overview... A trough lingers across the Northeast much of the week, bringing cool and occasionally showery conditions much of the week. Temperatures then start to moderate by the end of the week and into next weekend as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Details... A cut off low gradually progresses from northeastern Ontario on Tuesday, to the Canadian Maritimes by late Thursday. This keeps a cool north to northwesterly flow across New England much of next week. With this progression, weak shortwave troughs rotating around the cut off low brings chances for showers at times, with some snow showers also possible across the highest peaks at times. Highs in the 50s are expected in most areas Tuesday and Wednesday, with some low 60s possible near the coast. Thursday looks to be the coolest day, with highs in the 40s and 50s. Low temps in the 30s and 40s are expected each night as well. Tuesday night looks like the highest confidence cool night at this point, with more uncertainty for cloud cover Wednesday and Thursday night. On Tuesday night, widespread lows in the 30s are expected, with many areas across the interior likely to see their first frost of the year. Cooler conditions are possible Wednesday night, but with the low moving closer more clouds are likely to accompany it and limit the radiational cooling potential. The relatively strongest shortwave arrives Wednesday night, bringing showers to mainly northern areas and the higher terrain. Across the highest peaks, snow showers are also possible during this timeframe. Isolated showers are also possible in the upslope flow on Tuesday and Thursday near the Canadian border, but Wednesday night looks like the best chance for precip. By Friday, high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest as the cut off low moves eastward through Atlantic Canada. Temperatures begin to rebound and more sunshine returns, with highs warming into the 60s across southern areas on Friday, and some low 70s possible by Saturday. A cold front then approaches from the northwest next weekend, possibly moving through New England as early as next Sunday. With it still being a week away there is room for this timing to change, but thats the way it looks at this point. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...A MVFR stratus deck overspread much of Maine, with improving conditions this evening from west to east. This reprieve of VFR will be short-lived as widespread IFR and stratus and showers develop late tonight/early Monday morning (07-10Z). Increase SW flow off the deck will be below LLWS criteria, but will need to be monitored. Conditions will improve from SW to NE Monday night, with most areas transitioning to MVFR. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most terminals during the daytime. LEB likely sees valley fog and IFR conditions each night Tuesday night through Thursday night. HIE likely sees an extended period of mostly MVFR ceilings Tuesday through Thursday with upslope northwesterly flow. Mainly VFR conditions are then expected for the end of the week and into next weekend. && .MARINE... Short Term... Long period swell from Kirk reaching the New England coast with periods of 14 seconds. These swells will continue to push into the region raising wave heights to small craft levels, despite little to no wind component overnight. A warm front will lift in late tonight bringing some fog and rain by daybreak, to be followed by a cold front and wind shift late Monday. Swell and NW flow will continue the SCA for a couple days until the swell dissipates. Long Term...SCA conditions likely continue into Tuesday night with the southeasterly swell generated by Hurricane Kirk. Broad high pressure generally remains in place across the waters through midweek. SCA conditions are possible again by late in the week from westerly winds freshening as low pressure deepens across Atlantic Canada. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Clair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
715 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather pattern continues this week. * Cooler, seasonable, temperatures to start the week, warming back well into the 70s to near 80 by Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Moisture starved cold front soon to clear eastern zones with post-frontal, diurnally enhanced, mixing and dry advection keeping the remainder of the afternoon breezy with an elevated fire risk (see discussion below for details). Winds quickly diminish early this evening with seasonably cool and dry northwest flow settling in for the early to mid week periods. This northwest flow aloft will linger through at least Thursday as a trailing shortwave into the base of the exiting Great Lakes upper trough helps cut-off a slowing upper low across southern Quebec and northern New England. In the low levels, high pressure will dominate locally on the subsident southwest periphery of the upper level feature with quiet/dry wx. A warmup back well into the 70s and possibly low 80s appears likely by Friday and Saturday as high pressure sinks off to the south and warm advection commences within developing west-southwest flow. There is model support for a weak shortwave to traverse the US/Canada border in quasi-zonal flow by next weekend, which could drop a cold front through around Sunday with non-zero rain chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Northwest wind continues to gust near 20-25 knots as of this writing and is expected to subside with the loss of daytime mixing. Stratocumulus is noted upstream in the vicinity of the upper-level low working its way through the Great Lakes. VFR conditions are anticipated, but some of this cloudiness could reach the terminals according to time-height cross sections. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1028 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 BLUF: Regardless of the issuance (or lack of) any Red Flag warnings this afternoon, burning activities should be postponed and harvest operations should use extreme caution. Lots of coordination has taken place over the past couple of hours regarding concerns for Red Flag Warning criteria being met. A very difficult call to hoist in portions of the area as concerns for 1) 3 hour duration not being met, 2) 10 hour fuels near or just above thresholds and 3) degree of mixing of dewpoints this afternoon. GRR and DTX have hoisted RFWs with GRR up against our area in swath of strongest low RH signals as well as based on land management officials. Cold front was located from west of Coldwater, MI to near out office and southeast to Monticello. 10 to 15 degree drop in dewpoints has been fairly consistent showing after fropa. The lower mid to upr 30 dewpoints are advancing into NW IL and across WI and should arrive by mid afternoon. HRRR continues show a narrow swath of increased mixing of dry air with dewpoints into the upper 20s. RAP appears to have joined in as well. Winds will increase this afternoon as noted back in WI/NW IL with sustained 10 to 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph in spots. Waiting to hear from land management officials across N Indiana, but all other offices are holding off on any headlines and continuing with SPS/social media messaging which has been done here for the past 24 to 36 hours. Will closely monitor conditions with a hoisting of a RFW in portions of the area still possible over the next couple of hours with alignment of best conditions in the 20-23Z time frame. A freshen up of social media posts will likely be done to realign the greatest concern area more SW to NE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Brown FIRE WEATHER...Fisher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
255 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Main impact in short term will be frost advisory tonight in the Arco and Mud Lake Desert region and Upper Snake River Plain where overnight lows will be in the 32 to 37 degree range. It will remain very mild Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s mountains and 70s to near 80 valleys. Significant winds not expected. Lows Monday night in the 30s and 40s for the most part. GK .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday. A very weak system will move through to the south on Tuesday and model blend has a very slight chance of showers in the southeast highlands but low confidence in that occurrence. Wednesday and Thursday will also be dry and continued warm. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s mountains and 70s to low 80s in the valleys. Wednesday will be the warmest day in the long term with many low elevations back into the 80s. Some locations 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A second trof will move through in the late week and weekend period and the model blend has a slight chance of mountain showers Friday and Saturday with temperatures cooling off quite a bit with mountains highs in the 50s Saturday with 60s valleys and 50s and 60s to near 70 on Sunday. The operational GFS has a wetter solution with a closed upper low late next weekend but very little confidence in that solution. So for now blend has drying for Sunday. GK && .AVIATION...High pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions through the period. Expect overall light winds and mostly clear skies. A weak disturbance lifting north out of Nevada on Monday will just bring an increase in some mid-level clouds to the second half of the day. Winds look to remain light overall Monday afternoon. Wyatt && .FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidity was lower yesterday in the Central mountains than forecasted with widespread critical relative humidity in the Central mountains and marginal humidities elsewhere. Expect overall high pressure through the week bringing continued dry conditions with warmer than normal temperatures. The good news is that forecasted winds look to remain overall light though the week. Though, a weak system moving over southern Canada on Wednesday could increase winds slightly in the Central mountains. Models continue to show a weak disturbance Monday into Tuesday with little to no precipitation and overall light winds. However, models do show a slight increase in relative humidities with this disturbance. That said, minimum relative humidities look to be marginal through most of the week, especially in the Central mountains. Overnight humidity recovery is forecasted to be around 40 to 50 percent through the week, especially in the mountains in our northern areas. For next weekend, models still show significant increased humidities with a weak system moving through. However, model clusters are now showing more high pressure than before. Models could start backing off on increased humidities for next weekend. Wyatt && .AIR QUALITY...Air quality continues to be slightly to moderately degraded across our northern areas due to smoke from local fires. The HRRR smoke model continues to show moderate degradation across our northern areas today into tomorrow. However, models do show southwest flow setting up by late tomorrow and continuing through most of the week. Southwest flow will push any smoke away from most of our area and should improve any current degraded air quality. Wyatt && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ052-053. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
516 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke and haze from wildfires to the west may impact the CWA tonight into tomorrow - Dry conditions with above normal temperatures continue through much of week with periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The CWA sits under cloudless skies as sfc high sits overhead. Mid level WV and 500mb analysis depicts building ridge over the western US with the upper level low churning off to the east. Weak shortwave will advect across region late tonight/early Monday morning. The only impacts of note with this system will be winds shifting to the north and smoke being advected into the region from the wildfires burning to our west. 12z HRRR smoke run depicts most of the smoke staying aloft over western SD with northeastern WY and the Black Hills seeing smoke making it to the surface with associated degradations in visibility and air quality. Upper ridge will continue to build into the region through tomorrow into this week, tilting from north-south to northeast- southwest. Low- level thermal ridge will develop as the upper ridge remains overhead, bringing above average temperatures back into the region. Dry conditions will continue and with the unseasonably warm temperatures - could see periods of elevated to critical fire wx conditions through the upcoming week. Confidence decreases by Thursday when the next system progged to come through. Deterministic runs indicate that an upper level trough and attendant cool front will sweep through the region, though details on timing and strength of the system remain murky. Long range ensemble guidances signals that ridging may return after Thursday`s system and persist into the next week ... which indicates the warm and dry conditions may persist through the middle of the month. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 516 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Smoke from western wildfires may result in visibility restrictions across northeast WY. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Max night time RHs will reach into the upper 40s to 50s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills and into the 60s across the western SD plains into south central SD. The poor recovery combined with breezy conditions as a weak disturbance crosses the region will result in elevated fire weather conditions persisting into tonight. Dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures will return by tomorrow and persist into most of next week. With afternoon RHs progged to drop below 20% for most areas for most days, could see periods of elevated to critical fire wx conditions during the afternoons with nighttime RHs recovering to 30 to 60%. However, winds should generally remain light thanks to the influence of the upper level ridge. Highest potential for critical fire wx conditions will be Thursday when a dry cool front crosses the region, bringing breezy south/southwest winds ahead of the front and northwest winds behind it. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...JC FIRE WEATHER...Wong