Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/07/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost possible tonight/early Monday morning in the James and Big
Sioux river valleys.
- Dry and mild conditions through next week. Temperatures peak
Thursday with highs in the mid 80s, or about 15 to 25 degrees
above normal.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Surface high pressure will spread across the area overnight,
bringing light winds, clear skies (at least initially tonight), and
chilly temperatures in the 30s. Blended in some NBM25th guidance for
lows tonight, given the synoptic setup and dry air in place. On top
of that, tanked the James River valley a couple more degrees. This
did lead to frost output/potential in both the James and Big Sioux
river valleys. Did discuss possibility for localized frost
advisories in these locations, but will opt for other avenues like
HWO/social media and AFD/synopsis, etc. due to potential of being
somewhat localized to the favorable colder valley locations. Evening
shift may want to consider once again. Hinted at this earlier, but
there is some indication in the HREF cloud cover ensemble mean of a
mid-level deck overspreading the northern CWA after 06Z tonight
towards 12Z. This could spoil nearly perfect radiational cooling
conditions.
Winds stay light on Monday as the surface high slowly shifts
southeast away from the area. Light south/southeast surface winds
are expected to develop through the day, with warming temps aloft
moving in once again, translating to highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s.
HRRR Smoke product does show decent concentrations of smoke aloft
moving back into the CWA tomorrow, mainly western areas. Nothing
really showing up for near-surface smoke. Constructed sky grids to
reflect increasing sky cover where smoke aloft concentrations are
highest.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Little change in the overall pattern and forecast with recent model
runs. Zonal flow for the most part, with a wave that zips to our
north late in the week.
Main features through the extended are the anomalously warm mid
level airmass (1-2 standard deviations above climo at 850mb)
resulting in temperatures through Thursday 10 to 25 degrees above
normal. GEFS/NAEFS continue to suggest daily min rH values around 20
to 30 percent. Not much for a gradient through Thursday however. The
frontal system Thursday night/Friday morning is still several days
away so not a lot of confidence with respect to timing/intensity,
however current model/ensembles suggest southerly flow ahead of the
system doesn`t appear too strong, nor does the cold advection side,
with a lack of anomalies at 850mb in either of the NAEFS u or v
components. NBM 1 standard deviation above mean winds only top out
around 25kts, with a mean that is below Red Flag criteria.
As for moisture, while a few GEFS ensemble members happen to
generate 0.01 inches of moisture with what is essentially a weak
northwest flow wave, not going to put much stock in the model runs
out that far. Latest NBM has also dropped POPs below 10%.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through Monday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
540 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions on Monday, with minimum
humidity values in the teens and gusty winds possible through
the morning hours.
- Continued dry weather and above normal temperatures expected
to occur through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Short term forecast will focus on the return to above normal
temperatures and dry weather for the foreseeable future, with a flat
upper level ridge remaining firmly in place across the Intermountain
West and High Plains. Ultimately, held off on deviating forecast
temperatures too far from the NBM, with the NAEFS mean 700mb
temperatures in the climatological average on Monday and
Tuesday. However, would not be surprised to see 700mb
temperatures rise into the 90th percentiles with the current
atmospheric setup. Regardless, will likely see temperatures a
good 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Monday as compared to the
weekend, with daytime highs in the mid 70s for southeast Wyoming
and into the mid 80s for Western Nebraska.
Main forecast challenge will include possible fire weather
conditions tomorrow as embedded shortwave disturbances undercut
the main flow, kicking up wind speeds through tomorrow. NBM v4.2
Probability of Exceeding 22kts has begun picking up on these
features, with a high likelihood of greater than 22 knot winds
and 20% to 40% probabilities for greater than 34 knots for areas
along and east of the Laramie Range. Some uncertainty exists
for the presence of fire weather for tomorrow, with the HREF
probabilities of reaching critical fire weather thresholds
remaining too low across the CWA. Additionally, ongoing smoky
and hazy conditions tomorrow will likely bring temperatures
down a few degrees than is otherwise expected, with the HRRR
having visibility reductions of 3sm to 5sm. With the daytime
high temperature uncertainty and the lack of HiRes model
support, will hold off on any Fire Weather Headlines at this
time. However, atmospheric conditions will support elevated fire
weather concerns tomorrow through the afternoon. Otherwise,
prolonged warm and dry conditions expected for the remainder of
the forecast period, with daytime highs in the high 70s to mid
80s on Tuesday and continued fire weather concerns, as the upper
level ridge remains firmly in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
The models are in strong agreement with the upper level ridge
persisting through Friday. This will continue to favor above
normal temperatures and little or no precipitation. This upper
level ridge axis is expected to shift slowly east into the
Plains through the end of the week. This will result in
downsloping winds as the upper level flow turns more west-
southwest along with warmer temperatures. We will need to keep
an eye on the potential for records again towards the end of the
week. Not really expecting Red Flag criteria being met through
the week either, due to wind speeds remaining at or below 20 mph.
However, don`t be fooled, afternoon humidity levels will be
very low in the 10 to 20 percent range. The potential for rapid
fire spread is still very high which can get out of control very
quickly due to dry fuels.
Saturday and Saturday night still looks like a timeframe we may
see at least a 10 degree cool down. This is due to the models
and ensembles showing an 700-500mb open wave moving through
western Wyoming and Colorado. If this pans out, we may see a
slight chance of light rain in the mountains and possibly the
higher elevation plains above 6kft on Saturday into Saturday
night. Would certainly not get your hopes up as this upper level
ridge is trending to keeping it grip over the area with more
upper level ridging building into the area next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
VFR is expected for all terminals overnight into approximately
12Z Monday. We will be slowly increasing in coverage of HZ/FU
overnight, and it will likely cause temporary VIS reductions to
MVFR at times on Monday. Wind gusts should remain below 15 knots
overnight, and occasionally gust up to 20-25 knots for SE WY
terminals on Monday afternoon through 0Z Tuesday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
935 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) expected today.
- Smoke/haze, perhaps some near surface smoke is possible Monday
afternoon across eastern Colorado.
- A warming trend will follow, during the work week. Dry
conditions will persist throughout the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
For tonight brought overnight lows down a few degrees across the
east as skies will remain clear and winds light. Low
temperatures in the upper 30s are currently forecast across Red
Willow, Norton, and Decatur counties. As for tomorrow, added in
haze into the forecast mainly across the west as smoke from
fires across Wyoming and Idaho move into the area along a weak
front during the afternoon hours. Some near surface smoke may
become an issue as well as some runs of guidance are suggesting
some visibility reductions. If this does occur then very poor
air quality may become a concern. The past several runs of the
HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke and Near Surface Smoke has
been fairly consistent with the coverage and the timing of this.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Synoptic Overview: A high-latitude (40-70N) omega block.. the
center (ridge) of which extends northward from the northern
Rockies to the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.. will be the
dominant synoptic feature over North America at the beginning of
the week. Meanwhile, at lower latitudes (25-35N), an active
southern stream jet in the Pacific will usher a positively
tilted trough ashore the southern Pacific Coast /Baja, CA/ Mon-
Mon night. Upper level (~300 mb) winds in the lee of the central
Rockies, presently characterized by modest /30-40 knot/
northwest flow.. will back to the west Mon-Mon night as the
aforementioned southern stream trough progresses ashore the
southern Pacific Coast.
Sensible Weather Conditions: A subsident synoptic regime will
persist over the region in this period. Expect clear skies, dry
conditions and a warming trend.. with predominantly light winds.
A period of near critical to locally critical fire weather
conditions is possible over portions of eastern Colorado on
Monday.. mainly in Yuma/Kit Carson counties where deep vertical
mixing may yield somewhat breezy (15-25 mph) NW winds during the
afternoon. Overall, critical fire weather potential appears
marginal (at best).. and limited in scope.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Upper ridge moves little through the week with dry conditions
and above normal temperatures. Upper trough next weekend will
result in a Pacific cold frontal passage Saturday night
according to the latest timing. However, models starting to show
that the upper trough will be deflected into the northern
plains over the ridge, which would result in a continuation of
the dry conditions. High temperatures will be in the 80s through
Thursday, with some lower 90s possible by Friday and Saturday,
before cooling into the 70s on Sunday behind the front. Despite
afternoon relative humidity minimums in the teens each day
through Saturday, overall lack of wind will preclude fire
weather concerns.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 932 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
VFR conditions remain across the area along with light winds
around 5-8 knots. Winds will become southerly across the area
west to east with some gusts around 20 knots starting mid
morning and lasting through the afternoon. Continue to monitor
the potential for some smoke/haze moving across E Colorado
Monday afternoon with a low chance (5%) of creating flight
category reductions for KGLD and even less chances for KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1020 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses New England tomorrow, bringing a period of
rain tonight and tomorrow. High pressure at the surface brings
generally drier and cooler conditions for Tuesday through
Thursday, along with the chance for areas of frost. An upper
level low slowly moves southeastward across New England through
Thursday. The high then builds in from the southwest late in the
week, bringing a warming trend going into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Although the number of flashes in the approaching line continues
to slowly diminish late this evening, have added the chance for
thunder in the near term portion of the forecast for all of New
Hampshire and portions of western Maine tonight. The latest HRRR
has this precipitation crossing the Connecticut River Valley
around 06Z which appears to be a little slow compared to current
radar reflectivity images out of Upstate New York and Vermont.
Have raised pops for tonight based on the current trends. Have
lowered min temperatures as we are already near forecast lows in
a few places. Otherwise, just cosmetic changes to the near term
portion of the forecast.
Prev Disc...
Interesting setup this evening between low level
moisture encompassing eastern portions of the forecast area and
a system approaching from western New York State. In the middle,
mostly clear skies continue over westernmost Maine and New
Hampshire with high thin clouds crossing that region.
Clouds will continue to gradually thicken overnight from the
Gulf of Maine as well from New York State. This will keep
temperatures milder tonight, generally in the 40s for overnight
lows without significant changes from north to south. Rain will
enter the region from west to east after midnight which is
consistent with the latest HRRR. Otherwise, little in the way of
changes to the ongoing forecast package.
Prev Disc...
High pressure will drift east tonight gradually bringing return
flow to the region. Height falls ahead of a cold front moving
across the Great Lakes region will support increasing showers
overnight from west to east. The dry air in the mid-levels will
take some time to erode, delaying the onset of the showers until
after midnight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s across
the region, with some low 50s along the immediate coasts.
Coldest temps may occur shortly after midnight, with some subtle
warming with the SE flow through daybreak. Warm air advection
early morning should support some areas of 1 mile or less
visibilities, particularly along the midcoast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread low stratus and rain will support a dreary conditions
Monday with only a few degrees of warming possible throughout the
day. The showers will start clearing by the afternoon in SW NH where
highs could make a run for 60. Otherwise the rest of the area will
peak in the mid 50s. Warm air advecting will support a line of
moderate rain, but forcing looks insufficient (<500 j/kg) for
convection. Can`t rule out a stray lightning strike but it
doesn`t seen likely enough to add coverage in the forecast. The
rainfall will be across northern Maine, though some enhancement
in the mountains will favor higher amounts in the S facing
slopes. Looking at widespread 0.5", with higher amounts nearer
to an inch in the hills. A weak secondary front will will
trigger a few additional showers in the mountains late Monday,
but otherwise clearing expected. A cool night is in store for
the region with partly cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview...
A trough lingers across the Northeast much of the week,
bringing cool and occasionally showery conditions much of the
week. Temperatures then start to moderate by the end of the week
and into next weekend as high pressure builds in from the
southwest.
Details...
A cut off low gradually progresses from northeastern Ontario on
Tuesday, to the Canadian Maritimes by late Thursday. This keeps
a cool north to northwesterly flow across New England much of
next week. With this progression, weak shortwave troughs
rotating around the cut off low brings chances for showers at
times, with some snow showers also possible across the highest
peaks at times.
Highs in the 50s are expected in most areas Tuesday and
Wednesday, with some low 60s possible near the coast. Thursday
looks to be the coolest day, with highs in the 40s and 50s. Low
temps in the 30s and 40s are expected each night as well.
Tuesday night looks like the highest confidence cool night at
this point, with more uncertainty for cloud cover Wednesday and
Thursday night. On Tuesday night, widespread lows in the 30s are
expected, with many areas across the interior likely to see
their first frost of the year. Cooler conditions are possible
Wednesday night, but with the low moving closer more clouds are
likely to accompany it and limit the radiational cooling
potential.
The relatively strongest shortwave arrives Wednesday night,
bringing showers to mainly northern areas and the higher
terrain. Across the highest peaks, snow showers are also
possible during this timeframe. Isolated showers are also
possible in the upslope flow on Tuesday and Thursday near the
Canadian border, but Wednesday night looks like the best chance
for precip.
By Friday, high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest
as the cut off low moves eastward through Atlantic Canada.
Temperatures begin to rebound and more sunshine returns, with
highs warming into the 60s across southern areas on Friday, and
some low 70s possible by Saturday. A cold front then approaches
from the northwest next weekend, possibly moving through New
England as early as next Sunday. With it still being a week away
there is room for this timing to change, but thats the way it
looks at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...A MVFR stratus deck overspread much of Maine, with
improving conditions this evening from west to east. This
reprieve of VFR will be short-lived as widespread IFR and
stratus and showers develop late tonight/early Monday morning
(07-10Z). Increase SW flow off the deck will be below LLWS
criteria, but will need to be monitored. Conditions will improve
from SW to NE Monday night, with most areas transitioning to
MVFR.
Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most
terminals during the daytime. LEB likely sees valley fog and IFR
conditions each night Tuesday night through Thursday night. HIE
likely sees an extended period of mostly MVFR ceilings Tuesday
through Thursday with upslope northwesterly flow. Mainly VFR
conditions are then expected for the end of the week and into
next weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...
Long period swell from Kirk reaching the New England coast with
periods of 14 seconds. These swells will continue to push into
the region raising wave heights to small craft levels, despite
little to no wind component overnight. A warm front will lift in
late tonight bringing some fog and rain by daybreak, to be
followed by a cold front and wind shift late Monday. Swell and
NW flow will continue the SCA for a couple days until the swell
dissipates.
Long Term...SCA conditions likely continue into Tuesday night
with the southeasterly swell generated by Hurricane Kirk. Broad
high pressure generally remains in place across the waters
through midweek. SCA conditions are possible again by late in
the week from westerly winds freshening as low pressure deepens
across Atlantic Canada.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Clair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
715 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather pattern continues this week.
* Cooler, seasonable, temperatures to start the week, warming back
well into the 70s to near 80 by Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Moisture starved cold front soon to clear eastern zones with
post-frontal, diurnally enhanced, mixing and dry advection
keeping the remainder of the afternoon breezy with an elevated
fire risk (see discussion below for details). Winds quickly
diminish early this evening with seasonably cool and dry
northwest flow settling in for the early to mid week periods.
This northwest flow aloft will linger through at least Thursday
as a trailing shortwave into the base of the exiting Great Lakes
upper trough helps cut-off a slowing upper low across southern
Quebec and northern New England. In the low levels, high
pressure will dominate locally on the subsident southwest
periphery of the upper level feature with quiet/dry wx.
A warmup back well into the 70s and possibly low 80s appears likely
by Friday and Saturday as high pressure sinks off to the south and
warm advection commences within developing west-southwest flow.
There is model support for a weak shortwave to traverse the
US/Canada border in quasi-zonal flow by next weekend, which could
drop a cold front through around Sunday with non-zero rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Northwest wind continues to gust near 20-25 knots as of this
writing and is expected to subside with the loss of daytime
mixing. Stratocumulus is noted upstream in the vicinity of the
upper-level low working its way through the Great Lakes. VFR
conditions are anticipated, but some of this cloudiness could
reach the terminals according to time-height cross sections.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
BLUF: Regardless of the issuance (or lack of) any Red Flag
warnings this afternoon, burning activities should be postponed
and harvest operations should use extreme caution.
Lots of coordination has taken place over the past couple of
hours regarding concerns for Red Flag Warning criteria being
met. A very difficult call to hoist in portions of the area as
concerns for 1) 3 hour duration not being met, 2) 10 hour fuels
near or just above thresholds and 3) degree of mixing of
dewpoints this afternoon. GRR and DTX have hoisted RFWs with GRR
up against our area in swath of strongest low RH signals as well
as based on land management officials.
Cold front was located from west of Coldwater, MI to near out
office and southeast to Monticello. 10 to 15 degree drop in
dewpoints has been fairly consistent showing after fropa. The
lower mid to upr 30 dewpoints are advancing into NW IL and
across WI and should arrive by mid afternoon. HRRR continues
show a narrow swath of increased mixing of dry air with
dewpoints into the upper 20s. RAP appears to have joined in as
well. Winds will increase this afternoon as noted back in WI/NW
IL with sustained 10 to 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph in
spots.
Waiting to hear from land management officials across N Indiana,
but all other offices are holding off on any headlines and
continuing with SPS/social media messaging which has been done
here for the past 24 to 36 hours. Will closely monitor
conditions with a hoisting of a RFW in portions of the area
still possible over the next couple of hours with alignment of
best conditions in the 20-23Z time frame. A freshen up of
social media posts will likely be done to realign the greatest
concern area more SW to NE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...Fisher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
255 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night.
Main impact in short term will be frost advisory tonight in the
Arco and Mud Lake Desert region and Upper Snake River Plain where
overnight lows will be in the 32 to 37 degree range. It will
remain very mild Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s mountains
and 70s to near 80 valleys. Significant winds not expected. Lows
Monday night in the 30s and 40s for the most part.
GK
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.
A very weak system will move through to the south on Tuesday and
model blend has a very slight chance of showers in the southeast
highlands but low confidence in that occurrence. Wednesday and
Thursday will also be dry and continued warm. Highs Tuesday
through Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s mountains and 70s to
low 80s in the valleys. Wednesday will be the warmest day in the
long term with many low elevations back into the 80s. Some
locations 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A second trof will move
through in the late week and weekend period and the model blend
has a slight chance of mountain showers Friday and Saturday with
temperatures cooling off quite a bit with mountains highs in the
50s Saturday with 60s valleys and 50s and 60s to near 70 on
Sunday. The operational GFS has a wetter solution with a closed
upper low late next weekend but very little confidence in that
solution. So for now blend has drying for Sunday.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...High pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions
through the period. Expect overall light winds and mostly clear
skies. A weak disturbance lifting north out of Nevada on Monday will
just bring an increase in some mid-level clouds to the second half
of the day. Winds look to remain light overall Monday afternoon.
Wyatt
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidity was lower yesterday in the Central
mountains than forecasted with widespread critical relative humidity
in the Central mountains and marginal humidities elsewhere. Expect
overall high pressure through the week bringing continued dry
conditions with warmer than normal temperatures. The good news is
that forecasted winds look to remain overall light though the week.
Though, a weak system moving over southern Canada on Wednesday could
increase winds slightly in the Central mountains. Models continue to
show a weak disturbance Monday into Tuesday with little to no
precipitation and overall light winds. However, models do show a
slight increase in relative humidities with this disturbance. That
said, minimum relative humidities look to be marginal through most
of the week, especially in the Central mountains. Overnight humidity
recovery is forecasted to be around 40 to 50 percent through the
week, especially in the mountains in our northern areas. For next
weekend, models still show significant increased humidities with a
weak system moving through. However, model clusters are now showing
more high pressure than before. Models could start backing off on
increased humidities for next weekend.
Wyatt
&&
.AIR QUALITY...Air quality continues to be slightly to
moderately degraded across our northern areas due to smoke from
local fires. The HRRR smoke model continues to show moderate
degradation across our northern areas today into tomorrow. However,
models do show southwest flow setting up by late tomorrow and
continuing through most of the week. Southwest flow will push any
smoke away from most of our area and should improve any current
degraded air quality.
Wyatt
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for
IDZ052-053.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
516 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Smoke and haze from wildfires to the west may impact the CWA
tonight into tomorrow
- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures continue through
much of week with periods of elevated to critical fire weather
conditions
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
The CWA sits under cloudless skies as sfc high sits overhead. Mid
level WV and 500mb analysis depicts building ridge over the
western US with the upper level low churning off to the east.
Weak shortwave will advect across region late tonight/early
Monday morning. The only impacts of note with this system will be
winds shifting to the north and smoke being advected into the
region from the wildfires burning to our west. 12z HRRR smoke run
depicts most of the smoke staying aloft over western SD with
northeastern WY and the Black Hills seeing smoke making it to the
surface with associated degradations in visibility and air
quality.
Upper ridge will continue to build into the region through
tomorrow into this week, tilting from north-south to northeast-
southwest. Low- level thermal ridge will develop as the upper
ridge remains overhead, bringing above average temperatures back
into the region. Dry conditions will continue and with the
unseasonably warm temperatures - could see periods of elevated to
critical fire wx conditions through the upcoming week.
Confidence decreases by Thursday when the next system progged to
come through. Deterministic runs indicate that an upper level
trough and attendant cool front will sweep through the region,
though details on timing and strength of the system remain murky.
Long range ensemble guidances signals that ridging may return
after Thursday`s system and persist into the next week ... which
indicates the warm and dry conditions may persist through the
middle of the month.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 516 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Smoke from western wildfires may result in visibility
restrictions across northeast WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Max night time RHs will reach into the upper 40s to 50s across
northeastern WY and the Black Hills and into the 60s across the
western SD plains into south central SD. The poor recovery
combined with breezy conditions as a weak disturbance crosses the
region will result in elevated fire weather conditions persisting
into tonight.
Dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures will return by
tomorrow and persist into most of next week. With afternoon RHs
progged to drop below 20% for most areas for most days, could see
periods of elevated to critical fire wx conditions during the
afternoons with nighttime RHs recovering to 30 to 60%. However,
winds should generally remain light thanks to the influence of the
upper level ridge. Highest potential for critical fire wx
conditions will be Thursday when a dry cool front crosses the
region, bringing breezy south/southwest winds ahead of the front
and northwest winds behind it.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...Wong