Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/05/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
945 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers across Central NY this evening will taper off after midnight. The majority of the weekend will be dry until a cold front brings rain showers into the region late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This will be followed by much cooler temperatures next week with the potential for frost some nights. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 935 PM Update... Made some minor adjustments to PoPs this evening, mainly from the northern Finger Lakes to the Mohawk Valley where PoPs were increased over the next couple of hours with showers most numerous in this area. Some clearing is still expected overnight with some patchy valley fog from the increase in moisture. The rest of the forecast remains on track at this time. 625 PM Update... Showers have made their way into western NY and are just about to enter our far western counties. This is a little bit faster than projected, so sped up PoPs a little bit over the next several hours using the HRRR as a guide. The HRRR is closest to reality among the CAMS, although it is running about an hour slow with its projection of the showers, so took that into account. Showers look to exit to our east between 06-08Z. 350 PM Update Partly sunny and very warm conditions will persist into the early evening hours. A front is currently moving over Lake Erie which will approach our western counties by around 8 PM or so, bringing chances for a few rain showers. This front will then move through the I-81 corridor by late evening with a few showers possible; there is not much moisture with this feature and some low level dry air present, so capped PoPs at 20-30%. QPF was lowered to just a few hundreths of an inch or less with this system. The front will progress east, exiting the CWA by around or just after 2 AM. Skies will gradually clear and winds turn NW behind the front. With the light rain wetting the ground fog formation seems likely, especially in the valleys where winds will try to decouple. Mild with lows 45-55. After the morning valley fog Saturday turns mostly sunny under high pressure. Expect light NW winds 6-12 mph with seasonably mild temperatures in the mid-60s to lower 70s. Staying quiet, clear and calm under high pressure Saturday night. Just some patchy river valley fog once again, and cooler with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update: Brief upper level ridge moves over our region on Sunday along with high pressure at the surface. These features will help keep conditions mostly dry with mostly sunny skies expected for the first half of the day. Southerly flow will allow temperates to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. Although Sunday will be accompanied by strong gusts during the day with peak gusts up to 25 mph. Clouds begin to fill in from the northwest Sunday afternoon ahead of the next approaching frontal system. Scattered rain showers return to the region Sunday evening as a cold front passes through. Thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out, even overnight, but most model guidance show little to no instability. Showers are expected to last overnight as well with lows in the 50s. Upper level trough associated with an upper low north of our region will move east and into our region on Monday. As the upper low rotates over Canada it will send multiple shortwaves into our region along with persistent west to northwest flow. This allows lake effect rain showers to develop over central NY Monday morning. These showers are expected to last throughout most of the day potentially lingering into the overnight period as well. With cooler air in place highs will only climb into the 50s Monday afternoon with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 PM Update: Similar pattern continues during this period with a broad upper level low north of our region rotating and sending multiple shortwaves to the region. Northwesterly flow will keep lake effect shower chances throughout most of the week. Those in the Southern Tier and in areas southward will stay dry throughout this forecast period, through a couple of stray showers may find their way into the Twin Tiers. Upper level low moves east by Friday with a upper level ridge beginning to build in. There are timing differences towards the end of the period, therefore went with the NBM. Northwesterly flow along with falling heights will keep conditions cool during the week with highs remaining in the mid to upper 50s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s with potential for frost to develop. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 720 PM Update Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. A band of mid to high level clouds is advancing through western NY and will move through CNY/NE PA over the next 4-8 hours. Cloud bases are generally 050-150 ft agl with this frontal passage. Radar and upstream observations over WNY indicate some light (VFR) rain showers. Additional fog will be possible at KELM late tonight/early Saturday morning, which may result in more IFR- or-worse restrictions there; especially between 08-14z when it is forecast to be approaching Alt minimums with the fog. Confidence in fog is still moderate to high, but if winds remain slightly elevated, or stratus clouds linger behind the frontal passage this could deter fog formation. There is also a low chance for some patchy fog elsewhere, especially RME and ITH in the light NW flow, so did hint at light fog or mist here with a period of 5-6 SM vsbys. Once the fog dissipates by 13-15z Saturday it will be back to VFR areawide late Saturday morning, afternoon and evening areawide; under mainly clear skies. .Outlook... Saturday night...Valley fog possible; especially ELM. Sunday through Monday...Another frontal system moves in late Sunday with more showers and possible restrictions. A few wrap- around showers and lower clouds may persist across north-central NY terminals Monday. Tuesday & Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK/MJM NEAR TERM...DK/MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1122 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Areas of fog fade to pleasant sunshine to start to the first weekend of October * Isolated strong thunderstorms possible Sunday PM across parts of western PA; then drying out and cooling down next week with frost risk && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The shortwave to our north that provided a few showers across Warren and McKean counties earlier this evening has moved away from the area and the trough axis is now mostly to our east. At the surface, northwesterly flow has developed across the northern tier which is ushering in a drier air mass. This should limit widespread fog development across the northwest half of the area tonight, though patchy dense fog has developed across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and we have issued an SPS through 08Z at which point most models suggest that drier air moving in should lead to a decrease in fog coverage. This may need to be reevaluated though through the night. High pressure builds into the region tomorrow and will provide mainly sunny skies. Ensemble mean 850mb temps in the 7-9C range support highs ranging from the low to mid 60s over the N Mtns, to the mid 70s in the Lower Susq Valley. We have continued to undercut NBM dewpoints based on model soundings, which show very dry air above a weak inversion. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Fair and seasonable weather appears likely into the first half of Sunday before rain chances begin to increase during the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Models still show slight timing differences with the front, but showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during the late afternoon and evening. Instability looks to be fairly limited ahead of the front, with most guidance showing ~500-800 J/kg of SBCAPE, but with 35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, some organization of storms could be possible across the western half of Central PA. SPC has placed this region in a marginal risk of severe weather with isolated damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. Rain will quickly come to an end behind the cold front and skies quickly clear out for most of the area as high pressure builds in. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid 40s across the north and west, to the mid 50s in the southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Enhanced northwesterly flow in the wake of the cold front will usher in a drier airmass, thus keeping Monday mostly dry. Cyclonic flow and neutral to falling upper level heights could allow for a shower in the Alleghenies, but trends have been for drier air to filter in quicker. High pressure builds into central PA Monday and holds some influence through much of the week, but will have to monitor the potential for a couple reinforcing fronts through midweek as an upper low near southern Hudson Bay rotates a couple of lobes of energy through the Great Lakes and toward PA. Questionable as to the degree of moisture return and associated rain chances with these at this time. A little more uncertainty now exists in regard to frost for next week, beginning Tuesday night. Given the aforementioned frontal boundaries and upper troughiness keeping more cloud cover across northern PA, radiational cooling doesn`t now look as favorable. Ensemble joint probabilities of winds less than 5 mph and temperatures less than 36 degrees of 30-50% support continued mention of frost from Tuesday night on though. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Locally dense fog has formed slightly ahead of schedule at MDT/LNS. Otherwise, forecast remains on track although the intrusion of drier air could bring MDT/LNS out of IFR/LIFR thresholds between 06-08Z Saturday. There is moderate confidence on the exact timing, so have stuck with previous forecast that has resolved fairly well with RAP/GLAMP guidance. Previous Discussion Issued: 759 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Lingering MVFR ceilings will remain across the Lower Susquehanna Valley (MDT/LNS) over the next couple of hours before further deterioration is progged by the bulk of model guidance. At this time, model guidance hones in on the 04-06Z timeframe for some thickening of the low-level cloud deck towards IFR/LIFR thresholds. There is moderate confidence (~50-60%) in these conditions resolving towards 04Z Saturday with higher confidence on these restrictions coming to fruition after 06Z. Ceilings will continue to remain low at MDT/LNS through 10-12Z Saturday with enhanced low-level moisture in RAP model soundings that is also reflected with HREF probabilities of IFR and below conditions in this timeframe. Elsewhere, some concern for patchy valley fog at BFD close to sunrise (10-12Z Saturday) will bring some potential for sub-VFR flight conditions; however, model guidance remains fairly split and given low-level drier air compared to RAP model soundings, have decided to keep mentions at VCFG at this time with low (~20%) confidence at fog impacts at the airfield. Any fog formation (N PA) and low-level clouds (SE PA) are expected to quickly lift after 12Z with VFR conditions as high pressure settles into the area. There is high (> 90%) confidence in VFR conditions after 13Z Saturday through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Sun PM-Mon...Showers with CFROPA move west-to-east; isolated strong t-storm possible over the western 1/2 of the airspace. Tue-Wed...VFR, no sig wx. && .CLIMATE... Total precipitation for the month of September was 1.11 inches at Williamsport (-3.65" below average) which ranks as the 11th driest on record. The average temperature for the month of September was 63.1 degrees at Bradford (+4.2F above average) which ranks as the warmest September on record. Harrisburg (MDT) consecutive days streak of measurable rain ends at 9 with only a trace recorded yesterday 10/2. This ties the record for longest such stretch set from April 7-15, 1893 and matched May 15-23, 1893 and July 28-August 5, 1971. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco SHORT TERM...Bauco LONG TERM...Guseman/Bauco AVIATION...NPB CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
907 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm conditions return tomorrow ahead of a cold front, with most locations warming into the mid 80s for highs. - There is less than a 20% chance for any measurable precipitation during the next 7 days, which will result in worsening drought conditions across central and southeast IL. && .UPDATE... Issued at 907 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Broken to overcast skies currently over most of the CWA, covering everywhere except the southeast counties...south of I-70, are forecast to continue through the night by most of the models. Some holes will develop in the cloud deck, but believe broken clouds will be the rule over most of the area and then become scattered between 7am-noon, and then clearing out tomorrow afternoon. This could have some affect on overnight lows, but still think temps falling to round 60 is a good forecast. Winds are east to northeast around 10kts and current forecast is for winds a little less. May tweak the winds a bit for this update. With the increase in cloud cover and the minor adjustment to winds, an update will be forthcoming. Auten && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 At long last, the morning convection has come to an end, leaving only scattered clouds around in its wake. Breaks in these clouds will allow some warming the next couple hours, but high temps will be confined to roughly the mid 70s near and north of the I-72 corridor as the rain cooled airmass is slow to recover. Tonight, temps are forecast to drop only into the upper 50s to low 60s as winds slowly veer to the southeast and low level moisture gradually increases. The surface pressure gradient will tighten a bit during the afternoon-evening tomorrow, resulting in southerly wind gusts to around 25-30 mph which will strengthen advection of moisture from the Gulf into the area, ultimately bringing dewpoints into the low to mid 60s by the time a cold front sweeps in from the northwest late tomorrow night into Sunday morning. Ahead of that front tomorrow, the area is also expected to remain sunny allowing radiational heating to warm the area well into the 80s; in fact, NBM suggests a 30-40% or greater probability of max temps over 85 degF along and west of the I-55 corridor tomorrow. Unfortunately, the better forcing (and vertical wind shear) associated with the system approaching tomorrow night will be displaced well to our north and closer to the parent upper low - leaving our area with less than a 10% chance of precipitation. It will, however, bring an at least temporary reprieve from the unseasonable warmth (and humidity), with deterministic guidance suggesting quite the gradient in dewpoints along the front (04.12z HRRR suggests dewpoints will fall into the low 30s across our west by 12z/7am CDT Sunday). The drier airmass behind the front on Sunday will likely be quick to warm during the afternoon and evening if we end up sunny (for efficient radiational warming) as NBM suggests, offsetting cool advection and resulting in highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Northwest winds, forecast to gust to 20 to 25 mph Sunday afternoon, will ease Sunday night into Monday morning, combining with mostly clear skies to result in seasonably cool lows in the 40s. Starting the day off cooler should result in cooler highs on Monday as well, though the forecast highs in the upper 60s to low 70s might be a little too low if winds indeed remain as light as guidance would suggest as gradients weaken with the system`s gradual departure. Same goes for both Tuesday and Wednesday, although by Wednesday and especially heading into Thursday middle of the road ensemble guidance (LREF mean) suggests h5 heights will be approaching 580 dam as a ridge of high pressure expands into the area from the Great Plains. Highs are thus forecast to warm a couple degrees per day Wednesday through Friday, by which time NBM deterministic (near the 70th percentile of the ensemble) is sticking some 80+ degF highs in the forecast for areas near and west of the IL River. Throughout the entire forecast period, both NBM and the raw ensemble (LREF) suggest chances are less than 20% for any measurable precipitation. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Mid clouds around 7kft are expanding across the area and either is or will effect all sites during the night and overnight hours. Guidance suggests clouds will become scattered from west to east tomorrow morning and then become clear from late morning through around 18z...again from west to east. Winds will be northeast to east this evening, then become more east to southeast early tomorrow morning. Wind speeds will be 5-7kts this evening and overnight but increase to around 10-15kts tomorrow with gusts of 23-25kts by around noon, when the clouds clear out. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions are underway across parts of western Nebraska. The same is likely across all of western and north central Nebraska Saturday. - Dry mild weather continue this weekend lasting into next Friday. - Freezing temperatures appear likely across the Sandhills and the eastern Panhandle by Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 The temperature forecast tonight favors warm air advection ahead of a strong Pacific cold front. The short term model blend plus bias correction suggested lows in the 40s and 50s. The models are responding to the timing and intensity of a Pacific cold front Saturday by lowering temperatures a few degrees for highs ranging from the lower 70s north to upper 80s south. The timing of the front will have a large impact on temperatures, most notably across the south where the front will arrive just before peak heating, noon to 4 pm CDT. The short term model blend plus bias correction was the basis for this forecast. By Sunday morning, 1025 mb high pressure will be directly over wrn Nebraska and the guidance blend has responded by suggesting lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s in this area. Winds and therefore, temperatures will be higher across ncntl Nebraska for lows in the upper 30s around 40. The forecast remains dry with clear skies tonight through Saturday night; h850-300mb RH will remain in the 20 to 30 percent range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Dry mild weather continues Sunday through Friday. The strong low pressure system cross the Great Plains Saturday will move east and form a closed upper low across James Bay Monday and Tuesday which will then drift east toward and through the Canadian Maritimes later in the week. The result across the Great Plains will be upstream ridging and another wave of warm weather for wrn/ncntl Nebraska beginning Monday and lasting through Friday. Beyond Thursday, the faster GFS is drawing a longwave trof toward the Pacific Northwest while the ECM maintains a more zonal flow regime aloft. The GFS is warmer but the concept in the ECM is the same, temperatures at h850mb will gradually warm back into the lower 20s centigrade beginning Monday and lasting through Friday. Today`s blended temperature forecast came in slightly warmer for highs in the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 are in place next Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central Nebraska through tomorrow evening. The main aviation concerns will be wind related. Gusty winds should calm south of Highway 2 this evening, with winds north of Highway 2 remaining quite gusty overnight. Additionally, a strong low level jet will settle over the region tonight, creating widespread LLWS concerns across most of western and north central Nebraska, with winds around 2000 ft agl nearing or exceeding 50 knots overnight across north central Nebraska, and generally around 35 to 40 knots for the rest of the region. A passing cold front tomorrow will shift winds from southerly to westerly to northerly, bringing another bout of gusty winds tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 A strong Pacific cold front moving into the Pacific Northwest will enter nrn Nebraska around sunrise Saturday and reach srn Nebraska by late morning. A surge of warm dry air will precede the front. The latest wind forecast uses the short term model blend plus bias correction plus the NBM 50th percentile plus a 1 kt boost to line up with the stronger RAP model 500m AGL wind speeds. Strongest winds will be across ncntl Nebraska with markedly weaker speeds westward through wrn Nebraska. The reason for this is the amount of cold air the models show moving through WY west of the SD Blackhills. Regardless, the wind forecast Saturday suggests northwest winds 15 to 25 mph gusting to 25 to 40 mph. The humidity forecast uses the short term model blend and the RAP model which is drier than the NBM 50th. The surge of dry air ahead of the cold front Saturday morning will lower humidity below 15 percent in many areas. A slight increase in humidity is expected behind the cold front but values below 20 percent should prevail. The Fire Weather Watch for Saturday will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning with this forecast and it is worth noting a wildfire Thursday required areal fire suppression, caused evacuations and developed in 35 percent humidity with winds gusting to around 30 mph. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Saturday for NEZ204- 208. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Saturday for NEZ206-209-210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Richie FIRE WEATHER...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
635 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost for the interior central and eastern forecast area tonight. - Critical fire weather conditions Saturday across the area due to RHs dip into the lower to mid 30s, southerly winds gust up to 35 mph, and ongoing drought conditions. See the latest Red Flag Warning for additional details. - Only potential of rainfall over the next 7 days occurs Saturday night and Sunday. Widespread, significant rainfall not expected, but could see around a quarter to half an inch across the area. - Over the next 2 weeks, there are no signs of a transition to a more typical fall pattern that would bring more frequent precipitation. Drought conditions are likely to expand and deepen over the next 2 weeks with continued fire weather concerns on windier days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 346 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vigorous shortwave trof moving onshore over BC and Pacific NW. Downstream, ridging is progressing into s central Canada and the Northern Plains. Closer to home, a shortwave trof is moving eastward across the Great Lakes region. With Upper MI on the backside of that trof and under a dry air mass, it`s been a mainly sunny day across the area. At the sfc, the upstream mid-level ridge is supporting sfc high pres centered over central WI. Current temps are in the upper 50s to mid 60s F, pretty close to the normal high temps for Oct 4th. A few high based cu and some incoming mainly thin ci clouds from the wnw will be the rule thru late aftn. So, tonight will begin with mainly clear skies, and it will stay that way thru the night. Sfc high pres center will move from ne WI across northern Lwr MI tonight, supporting lightest winds across s central and eastern Upper MI. Air mass is not especially dry with precipitable water 60- 70pct or normal, but that will still enhance radiational cooling. Favored the lower side of guidance, which puts min temps into the low and mid 30s F in that area with areas of frost to develop. Frost advy will be will be issued from Iron/Marquette counties eastward. Frost will occur well inland from Lake Superior as developing sw gradient wind will be enhanced by the land breeze, helping to hold temps up closer to the lake. Temps will range up into the 40s F in that area and thru nw and far western Upper MI. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 450 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Critical Fire Weather Conditions Saturday Afternoon... The first half of the extended period is very active, with a low- level jet and dry air bringing critical fire weather conditions to the area Saturday; southerly wind gusts could get as high as 35 to 45 mph in the downslope areas near Lake Superior. Then Saturday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms looks to move through along a cold front. While the rainfall will wet the ground, it won`t slow our degradation into worsening drought conditions next week. In addition, there may be a strong thunderstorm or two that develops along the cold front, which may bring some hail and additional strong winds to the surface. Behind the cold front, some light lake- effect rain showers looks to impact the northwest wind belts, particularly over the east, Sunday into possibly Monday. Afterwards, more dry and abnormally warm weather returns as we head into the rest of next week. Saturday will be an eventful weather day across the Upper Peninsula. For starters, as a strengthening low pressure races across the Canadian Prairies, warm air advection and an impressive 60+ kt 850 mb low-level jet move into our neck-of-the-woods. These strong winds aloft will somewhat be mixed to the surface, bringing strong southerly winds up to 35 mph to the surface by the early afternoon, with downsloping near Lake Superior possibly getting gusts up to 45 mph at times by the mid to late afternoon. In addition, the warm air advection will allow temperatures to get into the mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday, with the warmest temperatures expected over the west in the downslope areas along Lake Superior. However, given that the warm air advection will be working to bring moisture to the area Saturday ahead of the low`s cold front, critical fire weather conditions will be somewhat limited to a few hours Saturday afternoon as RHs improve from the lower to mid 30 percents to 50+ percent late in the day. There does seem to be a few hours though (mainly in the downslope areas along Lake Superior, the Keweenaw Peninsula, and the east). After consultation with our fire weather partners, we have decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for the U.P. given the drought conditions and windy conditions. However, as moisture improves from west to east throughout the afternoon and evening hours, expect to likewise see an end to the critical fire weather conditions from west to east Saturday. Heading into Saturday night, the cold front arrives, bringing rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms with it. While severe weather is not expected due to the lack of CAPE and low lapse rates in the lower-levels of the atmosphere, there is still a possibility that we may see some sub-severe hail and gusty, erratic winds at the surface as lapse rates and CAPE improves greatly in the mid to upper levels (the European ensemble also shows anomalously high shearing throughout the atmospheric profile). While a soaking rainfall is not expected, we could see moderate rain rates along the cold front via the embedded rain showers and elevated thunderstorms; the latest run of the HREF shows up to a 20% chance (of 0.50 inches of rain in any given hour) of this occurring in isolated spots across Upper Michigan Saturday night. Skies clear behind the cold front late Saturday night. If you`re still up or are just waking up, you may catch a glimpse of the Northern Lights early Sunday morning! Expect Sunday to be a cooler and windy day across Upper Michigan. With strong cold air advection continuing across the Upper Peninsula, west to northwest winds up to 30 mph is expected across the area. In addition, we may see Wind Advisory criteria being met over the Keweenaw as winds could frequently gust up to 45 mph or higher (the LREF shows around a 50% chance of occurrence). Otherwise, due to delta-Ts over Lake Superior getting to 15 C, we will likely (50 to 60% chance) see light lake-effect rain showers over the northwest wind belts Sunday into Sunday evening. While not much liquid is expected with these lake-effect rain showers, they will help to bring a few hundreths back into the soil, particularly over the eastern U.P. where the fetch over Lake Superior (and thus the moisture flux) will be greatest. As ridging tries to fight its way back over us next week, expect the light lake-effect rainfall to progressively end over the northwest wind belts from west to east Sunday evening through Monday. Although one more shot of cold air advection will reinvigorate the light lake-effect rainfall over the eastern U.P. Monday, expect the last of the rain showers to end by Monday evening/Tuesday morning. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s Sunday and Monday, and for lows to range from the 30s to around 40 in the interior areas (in the 40s along the Great Lakes); some areas of frost are possible over the interior west Sunday night and Monday morning. Moving into the middle of next week, expect a return of dry and abnormally warm conditions, with highs typically being in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Given the sun and lack of precipitation next week, expect drought conditions to worsen across the area. This may increase fire weather concerns as we head towards the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 With a dry air mass dominating, VFR will prevail thru this fcst period at IWD/CMX/SAW. Tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty southerly winds on Sat with gusts to 25-30kt at all terminals by late morning. Nocturnal inversion will result in LLWS at IWD late tonight/early Sat before mixing depth increases and sfc winds become gusty. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots over the western lake this afternoon eventually weakens to around 20 knots this evening as ridging peaks overtop the Upper Great Lakes. However, beginning Saturday morning, expect winds to pick-up from the south as a strengthening low pressure system moving east over the Canadian Prairies brings a low-level jet of 60+ knots across our area. This will allow southerly winds to gust up to gales 35 knots across most of the lake (save the far west where winds will only get up to 30 knots). However, with localized convergence occurring just east of the tip of the Keweenaw, we could see high-end gales up to 45 knots over the central lake Saturday afternoon into evening. Once the cold front passes through Saturday evening, expect the winds to veer to the west and initially slacken to around 30 knots. However, as cold air advection continues across the lake Saturday night into Sunday, expect west to northwest winds to increase to gales of 35 to 40 knots across the lake, with a few high-end gale-force gusts up to 45 knots being possible Sunday near the Keweenaw. As the cold air advection weakens Sunday evening, expect the winds to progressively weaken to 20 to 25 knots by Monday morning. However, another shot of cold air advection looks to move over the area Monday, increasing northwest winds back up to 20 to 30 knots across the lake. As ridging fights its way into the Upper Great Lakes early this week, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or less by Monday night and to remain that way throughout the rest of next week. Outside of the gales, some elevated thunderstorms could be seen along the cold front Saturday evening through night; the thunderstorms could bring a few strong winds and some hail to the water`s surface. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Red Flag Warning from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Saturday for MIZ001>005-009>013-084. Frost Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Saturday for MIZ005>007-010>014-085. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for MIZ006-007- 014-085>088-095>097. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-240-241. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to midnight EDT Sunday night for LSZ242-263. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ243>250-264>266. Gale Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ251- 267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ221- 248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...07 MARINE...TAP