Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/02/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
607 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024
There are a few clouds across South Central Texas this afternoon.
Looking at a couple forecast points using RAP sounding data, appear
that some moisture between 850 to 800 mb is responsible for these
cumulus clouds. Otherwise, another beautiful day across the local
area with highs expected to reach the lower to upper 90s including
possible daily max records for the Austin and San Antonio climate
sites. Clouds start to dissipate late afternoon into the evening for
clear skies later tonight through Wednesday morning. Overnight lows
are forecast to range from the lower 60s across the Hill Country to
upper 60s along the coastal plains. Light northerly winds are
forecast for this evening through Wednesday morning and then
shifting to a more easterly direction in the afternoon. A cold front
across central Texas is slowly pushing to the south this afternoon
and continuing through Wednesday morning and may get to the Hill
Country by day break. Afterward, it disappears. The surface high
pressure dominating the local area today shifts to the northeast
into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday and locally that means another day
with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s under
mostly sunny to sunny skies. Another clear night is in store for
Wednesday night with overnight lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Our dry weather pattern will continue Thursday. Above normal high
temperatures will also continue. Low temperatures will generally be
close to normal with the metro areas above normal Saturday morning.
A weak upper level disturbance will move into Texas from the Gulf
bringing slight chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Coastal
Plains Friday afternoon. Rain chances will spread farther north and
west Saturday and Sunday afternoons. However, the weak disturbance
will have a hard time overcoming the upper subsidence and most areas
will stay dry. This disturbance will move away and dry weather will
return for the start of next week. Temperatures for the weekend and
early next week will continue with near normal lows and above normal
highs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024
VFR flight levels will prevail through the TAF period under few to
sky clear conditions. The breezes persisting through this afternoon
will then diminish this evening and speeds will remain generally
light for the rest of the period below 10 knots. The northeasterly
flow across the I-35 TAF sites become more easterly on Wednesday
afternoon then east-southeasterly on Wednesday night.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Record High Temperatures for Oct 1
Austin Bergstrom.....98
Austin Camp Mabry....99
San Antonio..........97
Del Rio..............101
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 70 95 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 94 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 64 91 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 70 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 65 92 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 66 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 66 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 70 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 70 95 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
808 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated shower possible this evening east.
* Otherwise, Partly cloudy west; Mostly Cloudy East
* Becoming Mostly Sunny on Wednesday
* Mostly Dry weather with seasonable to above temperatures
late week and this weekend but cooler next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
A band of SCT light to moderate rain showers is accompanying a cold
front southeast through the forecast area this evening. Showers are
noted from roughly Madison IN to Sellersburg IN to New Middletown IN
to Hardinsburg at this hour. Thunder has been absent so far and
remains very unlikely due to a notable mid-level capping inversion
and weak instability. A few spotty showers will remain possible
through late this evening in areas east of I-65 downstream. Areas
across south-central KY will remain relatively drier.
Northwesterly winds will briefly gust up to 20-25 mph in the wake of
the front this evening. Potent CAA steepens low-level lapse rates
and mixes down higher winds aloft (25 kts or so at 925 mb). However,
these winds won`t last long and will gradually diminish early
Wednesday morning.
Low-level clouds gradually clear along and west of the I-65 corridor
tonight. However, lingering moisture trapped beneath a strengthening
inversion will result in expanding low clouds east of I-65. The
Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions should remain mostly cloudy at
sunrise, with clouds slow to lift/scatter into the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a diffuse cold front
east of our area, over the Appalachians. Strong high pressure was
centered over NB/KS, and was building southeastward into the Ohio
Valley. GOES16 shows lingering cloud cover in the wake of the cold
front across Central KY, with lower clouds found across the
Bluegrass. Northwest surface winds were in place and dew points
were mainly in the 60s. The flow aloft showed a trough over the
Great Lakes, while ridging was found stretching from California to
the lower Mississippi Valley. This was resulting in Pacific
northwest flow streaming across the northern plains and then into
the Ohio Valley. Water Vapor imagery showed subsidence across
Central KY.
This evening -
As some clearing has developed across the western parts of Central
KY, convective temperatures have been reached allowing some CU
development. The HRRR has responded with some isolated light rain
showers shown to develop late this afternoon and early this evening.
Coverage should be limited and light for any location that does see
rainfall. For now will stick with mainly 20% pops through 00Z across
the northeast half of the forecast area.
Overnight -
As heating is lost, any lingering showers will quickly dissipate.
Models show steady southeastward progress of the surface high as the
northwest flow aloft continues. Little in the way of forcing
dynamics is seen as the surface high arrives tonight. Forecast
soundings continue to show strong mid level drying with a trapping
inversion present within the lower levels. This will likely result
in some of the pesky clouds lingering over eastern Central KY to
persist through the overnight hours. More clearing will be expected
in western Central KY and Southern Indiana as drier air and lower
dew points will be arriving there first. Thus mostly cloudy skies
east, with clearing skies across the west is expected. Coolest lows
in the upper 40s will be found in south central Indiana, while much
of KY has lows in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday -
Strong surface high pressure to the northwest will build eastward on
Wednesday. The high will reach southern IL and western KY in the
afternoon, allowing continued cool, northerly surface flow across
Central KY. Forecast soundings through the day show a dry column
with a mid level inversion that should prevent much in the way of
cloud development. Any morning clouds found across the Bluegrass are
expected to dissipate by late morning as heating and mixing resumes
along with the arrival of drier air. Thus we will look for skies to
become partly cloudy/mostly sunny with pleasant high temperatures in
the low to middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
A pair of cold fronts, steered by Great Lakes waves, could bring a
few showers to the area around Friday and again around Sunday and
Sunday night. Although, moisture will be the main issue opposing
showers, as model soundings are showing a mostly dry column through
early next week. Otherwise, good confidence that surface high
pressure, zonal flow and a mostly dry column should bring dry
weather along with seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures
with highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday and Sunday
look like the warmest days of the period with middle 80s possible
during the afternoon, just ahead of the advancing fronts.
Cooler weather should arrive next week, in the wake of the second
cold front, as winds turn to the northwest and north, resulting in
modest cold advection. Many locales may not see temperatures as warm
as 70 degrees starting Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
A band of SCT rain showers along a cold front is quickly approaching
the I-65 corridor at the start of this TAF period. A brief shower or
two will be possible, mainly at SDF and LEX late this evening. A
narrow band of low clouds is noted near the front as well, and these
clouds are forecast to expand somewhat with lowering ceilings east
of the I-65 corridor. This low-level moisture trapped beneath an
inversion will result in a period of MVFR ceilings at LEX and RGA.
Otherwise, the main aviation impact tonight will be wind. Gusty
northwest winds will develop immediately in the wake of fropa. Gusts
of 15-20+ kts will be possible for a brief time. Winds will then
gradually diminish to around 5-6 kts early Wednesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...EBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1011 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
A weak surface front/trough is moving toward the forecast area
tonight and triggering a few more showers across southwest
Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Clouds were decreasing over the
western sections at mid evening. Still expect a few showers in the
extreme northeast next couple hours and then as clouds decrease
patchy fog is expected to form that could be locally dense. Updated
forecast to increase cloud cover some and only have showers in the
extreme northeast. Clouds expected to decrease from west to east
through the night. Winds expected to be light. Updated forecast
sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Key Messages:
1. Areas of fog expected tonight.
2. Above normal temperatures on Wednesday.
Discussion:
A weak surface trough is pushing into northern portions of the
area, and appears to be the focus for most of the showers seen on
radar. Scattered showers north of I-40 and isolated to the south
will continue through the afternoon, until boundary layer
stabilization ends the showers after sunset. A slight chance of
showers will be kept in SW VA overnight, as the HRRR depicts
showers persisting there. Decreasing cloud cover after sunset
should allow for clearing in most spots, and with dewpoints in the
mid and upper 60s this afternoon, fog formation is likely. The
possible negative factor to fog is high pressure over the MO
Valley building east, producing a bit of a pressure gradient
across KY/TN. If winds stay above calm, fog may not materialize,
and we will have low clouds. In any case, clearing will occur
Monday morning with mixing, and with mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon, highs will reach the mid 70s to lower 80s in most spots
outside the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Key Messages:
1. Mostly dry weather for the period, but a few spots may see
a shower Friday and again around the Sunday night time frame.
2. We will start out with above normal temperatures, but cooler
conditions will arrive early next week.
Discussion:
We start the period under an upper ridge, and Thursday will be dry
with above normal temperatures. A weak cold front will approach
Friday, but is expected to stall out before making it into our area.
However, a few locations may still see a shower Friday. Mean SREF
MLCAPE values are generally in the 400-600 J/kg range, so a few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out either.
The weekend will start out mainly dry and warm as we remain under
the influence of the ridge, but an upper trough will be dropping
southeast across the Great Lakes and into the northeastern states
Sunday into Monday. This will drag a cold front through our area.
Sunday will likely still be mainly dry and warm, but a few showers
will likely occur sometime in the late Sunday through early Monday
time frame with Sunday night currently looking like the most likely
period. Monday and Tuesday will see drier and cooler air moving in
behind the front, with high temperatures Tuesday expected to be
below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
Broken VFR clouds will continue through the evening with isolated
showers mostly near TRI area not enough to mention there. Later
tonight, clouds are expected to clear enough for fog development,
with LIFR to VLIFR conditions expected at TYS and TRI. Light
downslope winds may prevent fog at CHA. The fog and low clouds
will be slow to lift and scatter after sunrise. VFR conditions
expected by late morning or early afternoon at all sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 82 59 84 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 80 56 83 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 62 79 57 82 / 20 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 78 54 79 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TD
AVIATION...TD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
501 PM MST Tue Oct 1 2024
.UPDATE...
00Z Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Abnormally hot conditions are expected through the weekend, as
persistent high pressure remains parked over much of the Western
United States. Expect afternoon high temperatures to near or exceed
record levels. Regional moisture content has promoted the formation
of virga and isolated showers this afternoon over Arizona high
terrain northeast of Phoenix.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Isolated convective showers/virga, and some cells capable of
producing lightning, have formed over the high terrain of East-
Central AZ and in the vicinity of the Mogollon Rim early this
afternoon. These showers developed in an environment containing
minimal instability, with RAP analysis showing MUCAPEs around 100-
300 J/kg, and are producing very little in the way of accumulating
rainfall (MRMS QPE on the order of several hundredths of an inch and
up to 0.2" from the stronger cells). As a result of the very
isolated coverage, minimal accumulations, and anticipated
dissipation of these cells when they move off the high terrain, PoPs
are quite low (mainly 10% or less) in Southern Gila County and
portions of northeastern Maricopa County this afternoon. However,
occasional lightning and brief gusty winds can be expected. As we
head later into the afternoon, CAMs show the potential for a few
thunderstorms developing in Western Pima County and along the
international border that could push gusty outflow winds into our
CWA, primarily into Southwestern Maricopa and Southeastern Yuma
Counties.
Aside from the isolated convective activity around the state today,
the main story continues to be excessive heat conditions. An
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Friday evening
for portions of South-Central/Southwest AZ and Southeast CA, as
forecast high temperatures remain near or in excess of daily
records (see Climate section for more details). Today looks to be
the hottest of the next 7 days, and the temperature at Phoenix Sky
Harbor Airport has already reached 110 degrees this afternoon,
making this the first October day ever with a temperature at or
above 110 degrees since records began back in 1896. Though flat
ridging will continue to dominate over the Western US through the
middle of the week, heights aloft will be lower tomorrow and
Thursday, and highs will correspondingly decrease into a 104-108
degree range for the typically hotter lower desert locales.
Ensembles are in excellent agreement that ridging will strengthen
once again late this week into this weekend, with mean H5 heights
around 590 dam returning, allowing for highs to reach the 105-110
degree range across the lower deserts. An extension of the
Excessive Heat Warning through this weekend will likely be needed
in future updates if the pattern evolves as expected.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2345Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concerns through this evening will be gusty
winds associated with an outflow boundary which is expected to
pass through the metro terminals. This boundary has already
reached KSDL and KDVT will move through KPHX shortly. Expect
northeasterly winds with gusts upwards of 25-35 kts for the next
1-2 hrs and the potential for isold SHRA/TSRA, mainly at KSDL
through 01Z-02Z. Activity will diminish by sunset with easterly
flow prevailing overnight. There could be a period of elevated
winds near sunrise Wednesday with speeds upwards of 13-15 kts.
Skies will be partly cloudy before gradually clearing out
overnight.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated for the TAF
period with mostly clear skies. While light W to N winds are
expected at both terminals, extended periods of light and variable
winds will be common.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry and abnormally hot conditions will continue through
this week as a strong area of high pressure sits overhead. Lower
desert high temperatures are expected to run between 103-113
degrees each afternoon. A slight chance (10-20%) of some very
isolated showers exists this afternoon across south-central
Arizona, with the majority of the activity being focused around
enhanced terrain features. Some showers may result brief periods
of gusty and erratic winds. MinRH values will run between 5-15%
each afternoon, while overnight MaxRH readings should range
between 25-35%, with some locally higher values across Yuma and
Imperial Counties. Outside of any shower activity this afternoon,
winds are expected to follow typical diurnal trends, with
occasional afternoon gusts near 20-25 mph.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs this weekend and next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
---- ------- ---- ---------
Oct 1 107 in 2020 110 in 1980 110 in 1980
Oct 2 107 in 1980 112 in 1980 108 in 2020
Oct 3 105 in 2020 108 in 1952 108 in 1952
Oct 4 105 in 2020 109 in 1952 106 in 1952
Oct 5 105 in 2020 108 in 1917 106 in 2020
Oct 6 105 in 1917 108 in 1980 106 in 1964
Oct 7 104 in 1991 108 in 1987 105 in 1991
Oct 8 104 in 1987 107 in 1996 106 in 1996
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>544-546-
548>551-553>555-559.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-566-567-
569-570.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Whittock
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...RW
CLIMATE...18