Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/01/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
646 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty NW winds decrease by evening. - Frost or freeze possible tonight. - Warmer/dry conditions and breezy in spots for Tuesday and Wednesday. - No chance of meaningful precipitation over the foreseeable future. && .UPDATE... Extended the smoke and haze grids through Tuesday night based on the latest HRRR guidance. Hazy skies look to become more common by Tuesday evening. Archer && .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday night... Gusty post-frontal NW winds continue across the forecast area. Highest gusts (near 50 mph) have been east of Rosebud County, but gusts around 30 mph have persisted in the west. Strong 850mb cold advection is shifting east of us and pressures are beginning to fall in south central MT, so a gradual decrease in gusts should occur thru the remainder of the afternoon. Once we get past sunset winds will be much lighter thru the night, with drainage beginning along the western foothills. With regard to the Elk Fire west of Dayton, NW winds will veer to the N-NE this afternoon and become light by sunset. Winds will shift to southerly tonight and the drainage could result in surface smoke spreading to Dayton and Ranchester, and possibly northward along the Little Bighorn toward Lodge Grass and Crow Agency. Something to watch. There is an Air Quality Alert in effect until 1pm Tuesday for Sheridan County. Clear skies and light winds will yield a chilly night tonight... likely the chilliest so far this fall. There is a good chance (>70%) of a frost most places, and notoriously colder spots will see a freeze. We are forecasting a low of 38F at the Billings airport and 35F in the city. Take care of sensitive plants. Tuesday will be warmer w/ less wind, but there will still be mixed gusts on the order of 20-30 mph along the western foothills. Temps will reach the 70s and near 80F in spots tomorrow. It goes w/o saying that dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday night as we remain dominated by a dry zonal flow. JKL Wednesday through Monday... Dry zonal to NW flow will continue into this weekend, with normal to above normal temperatures in the forecast. Highs will be in the 60s to 70s through Friday, and possibly up to 80F Saturday through Sunday. The chance for precipitation through the weekend will be negligible. Lingering gusty winds on Wednesday in the western mountains and foothills in the 20s-30s mph will create breezy conditions. Strong winds are not forecasted Thursday and Friday, though an increase is possible on Saturday, as a result of a passing shortwave. Wind gusts in the 20s-30s mph will again be possible. To go along with the warm and windy conditions, minimum relative humidity values will be poor throughout the extended, 15-25%. Because of this, fire weather concerns will continue, mainly in the lower elevations where minimal rainfall has fallen over the past few weeks. Matos && .AVIATION... Winds will continue gradually decreasing until around 02z and will be much lighter overnight and Tuesday. VFR will prevail through the period, but local reductions to MVFR due to smoke from the Elk Fire are expected near KSHR (and possibly near K00U by early Tuesday). Slant range visibility will be reduced at times. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 039/077 051/075 041/065 039/075 051/079 047/078 048/079 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U LVM 035/079 049/076 034/067 035/079 046/078 044/078 044/077 00/H 00/N 00/U 00/U 10/N 00/U 00/U HDN 035/079 047/075 039/066 036/076 045/081 044/078 044/080 00/H 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U MLS 035/075 050/070 041/064 037/073 048/078 044/073 045/077 00/H 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 035/077 050/073 041/066 038/076 050/079 045/075 046/079 00/H 00/U 01/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 033/074 047/069 038/064 035/074 045/077 041/072 042/077 00/U 00/U 01/B 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U SHR 032/079 046/078 036/067 035/079 045/082 042/078 044/080 00/H 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1115 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will weaken/fill as it drifts slowly east across the Central Appalachians tonight, before pushing east of the area late Tuesday. A front will move through on Wednesday and lead to drier and sunnier conditions for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Regional radar loop at 03Z shows an area of light rain/drizzle falling across the southern half of PA in a region of upper level diffluence ahead of an upper low over the Ohio Valley. Little change is expected overnight, as the upper low makes slow eastward progress to near the western panhandle of WV by dawn. Latest near term model guidance indicates an upsloping southeast flow may cause the northern edge of the light rain/drizzle to expand north along the spine of the Alleghenies into Elk and perhaps Southern Mckean counties overnight. Have added ridgetop fog to the forecast across the Southern Alleghenies based on latest RAP and SREF prob charts. Ensemble mean qpf overnight ranges from nothing over the northern tier counties and Middle Susq Valley, to perhaps a half inch on the ridgetops of Cambria and Somerset counties. Weak low level cold advection should push readings to the mid and upper 50s in most locations by dawn. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The remnant of the upper low is progged to track along the Mason Dixon Line Tuesday morning, then pass off the Delmarva Peninsula by afternoon. Thus, expect rain to taper off to from west to east Tuesday. However, low level moisture combined with an upsloping southeast flow should result in lingering low clouds and drizzle over the Central Mtns. We continue to undercut NBM max temps Tuesday across most of Central PA, due to its warm bias in cold air damming/easterly flow scenarios. Expect highs to range from the upper 50s over the higher terrain of South- Central PA, to the upper 60s over the Middle Susq Valley, where model RH profiles support a few breaks or thin spots in the overcast. Model soundings remain nearly saturated from the surface to 700mb over the Central Mtns Tue night, indicating low clouds and occasional drizzle is likely. In addition, a weak shortwave is progged to traverse the region late Tue night, bringing a chance of showers to the northwest part of PA. Rising heights behind the departing shortwave signal drier and milder conditions Wednesday overall. However, a dying occluded front is progged to wash out over Northwest PA Wed, with a persistent low level southeast flow ahead of it yielding lingering stratus over most of the forecast area. A nearly saturated sfc-850mb layer, combined with weak orographic forcing, should result in spotty drizzle over the Central Mtns. Similar to Tuesday, expect max temps to fall a bit short of seasonal normals and NBM guidance, due to its warm bias in CAD/easterly flow scenarios. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... All medium range guidance supports fair and warm weather Thursday and Friday, as upper level ridging builds over PA. GEFS 2m temp anomalies are 5-10F above climo, translating to highs in the 70s. A cold front passage could produce a few showers Friday night. However, current guidance tracks the parent shortwave and best large scale forcing north of the region, so POPs are in the 15-30pct range. Fair and seasonable weather appears likely next weekend, as surface high pressure builds across the state. We have slightly undercut NBM min temps Sat night, when conditions favor efficient radiational cooling directly under the surface high. The next chance of showers will come Sunday night with the approach of another cold front. Current guidance indicates the associated upper trough will be fairly deep and provide enough forcing for a good chance of a light but measurable rainfall Sun night into early Monday. Fair and cooler conditions should follow later Monday, as surface ridging and dry air arrive behind the front. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Heading into the early overnight hours, borderline MVFR/IFR conds were found across much of central PA. The Susq Valley (IPT/MDT/LNS) remained VFR beneath a ~4 kft cig. Expect some degradation overnight in continued low clouds, light/drizzle, and patchy fog. Many sites will likely return to IFR, with the Susq Valley expected to at least dip back down to MVFR. Slight improvement is possible during the day on Tuesday, esp across the north and east. However, continued east-southeasterly flow will make it difficult to see significant improvement, and we could see IFR conds persist across the Laurel Highlands and the Ridge and Valley region. More significant improvement appears in store later Wednesday and especially Thursday. Outlook... Wed...AM rain/low cigs possible, then PM improvement. Thu-Fri...Drier weather, with primarily VFR conds expected outside of patchy morning valley fog. Fri night-Sat...A few showers are possible. Otherwise, predominantly VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Evanego
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
530 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few storms have fired over the the southern valleys today. A few sprinkles are expected with some gusty outflow winds possible under and near the stronger showers and storms. - High confidence continues of near record high temperatures through the week. - High pressure remains in control through the week with little change from day to day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 149 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 A few storms have fired this afternoon over the southern valleys with mostly cloud-to-cloud lightning noted, though a few cloud-to-ground strikes have occurred as well. Looking at available moisture and instability, the highest amounts are co- located in that general area so this convection comes as no surprise. Dry conditions remain at the surface across most of the CWA so any showers or storms may produce a quick sprinkle or trace QPF- wise. Evaporative cooling will allow some gusty outflow winds with a few stronger gusts possible under and near any of these cells. Again, these will remain over the San Juan foothills and southern valleys. The rest of the CWA will see clear to partly cloudy skies as more record high temps are likely tied or broken. A few afternoon gusts of 20 to 25 mph will also occur from time to time. Little change on Tuesday though forecast moisture is expected to decrease across the area except for a small sliver along the NM/CO border. HRRR CAPE values are almost non-existent while the NAMNEST does have some values around 100 to 200 J/kg. Expect there will be some instability available but with a lack of moisture, not too sold on any showers or storms. The NBM agrees and gives us PoPs of 10% or less. The HRRR agrees while the NAMNEST has very isolated convection in place for the same areas we`re seeing convection today. For now, will hold off on any mention of precip with more sun than clouds and those unseasonably early October temps remaining in place. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 149 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Model agreement remains lockstep with an elongated ridge of high pressure anchored over the southern Continental U.S. With the polar jet well to our north along the Canadian Border, we will wait patiently for near record high temperatures to subside. Unfortunately, this is going to require a ripple or two in the longwave pattern...a seemingly small request the second week of autumn here in the Rockies. Model phasing remains steady into Thursday ahead of a wave that tries to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and come ashore in the PACNW Friday. Moisture will remain in short supply for the CWA this week. A remnant pool of moisture hangs on across AZ/NM, this will keep a sliver of shower activity in the forecast Wednesday and, maybe, Thursday on the terrain of southwest Colorado. Any showers that manage to get going will drop some gusty outflows, but little to nothing in the way of wetting rainfall. The PACNW wave on Friday seeds a little hope for collapsing the ridge enough to perhaps cool temperatures a degree or two next weekend. Precipitation looks unlikely, but some cloud cover working through could offer some relief as well. Unfortunately, the polar jet stays northward and we continue to rely on weak shortwave perturbations for sensible weather. Nonexistent moisture makes this a tall order. In the meantime, near-record highs will continue with a chance for a slight cooling trend headed into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 VFR conditions and light terrain driven winds are expected over the next 24 hours over eastern Utah and western Colorado as high pressure remains in control. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1002 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to gusty winds will continue across the area this evening. - Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Yuma and Kit Carson counties Tuesday. Near critical to locally critical fire weather forecast for adjacent counties. - Record/near record high temperatures anticipated for some Wednesday. - No rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Cold front continues to move across the area bringing breezy to gusty northerly winds up around 40 mph at times to the area. These winds will continue through early to mid evening before the nocturnal inversion sets in and the pressure rises behind the front stabilizes. The Red Flag Warning remains in place for SW Nebraska; some consideration was given to expand it to include the Colorado counties as there may be some overlap of RH values around 15% and the continued strong winds along with some higher values of GFDI. I opted to hold off the expansion due to the limited number of hours where "critical" conditions may be met. High temperatures for most will have been met by 1pm MT and we will see a steady downtrend for the remainder of the afternoon. For tonight, have lowered temperatures a few degrees into the mid/upper 30s to mid 40s as radiational cooling may be strong given a dry air mass, light winds and mainly clear skies. I do have some concerns that some locally lower values potentially approaching the freezing mark may be possible especially in valleys across Yuma and Dundy counties due to dew points in the low to mid 20s and light winds around 5-10 mph as a surface high moves into the area around sunrise. I considered a Frost Advisory for Yuma and Dundy counties in particular where the lightest winds should occur but opted to hold off due to concerns regarding the spatial extent of the frost potential, some high clouds which may interfere with radiational cooling and if frost would even form given the dry dew points and larger dew point depressions. RAP has been fairly consistent bringing in some meager low level moisture along and south of I-70 starting around 09Z-13Z Tuesday. Given how dry the low levels are would be shocked if its anything more than a sprinkle or two; more than likely would be virga. As a result, have nudged up pops to around 5%. Tuesday, the surface high slowly moves to the east keeping winds light for most. As the high continues to move east return southerly flow will occur across western portions of the area where some gusts around 25-30 mph will be possible. RH values will again be in the mid to upper teens creating some concern for fire weather conditions especially across eastern Colorado. At this time the favored area for multiple hours of critical fire potential lies across western portions of those counties as a result and after collaboration with NWS Boulder have opted to introduce a Fire Weather Watch for Kit Carson and Yuma counties for Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will be more seasonal in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area in wake of today`s cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Not much change from previous discussions regarding the extended period. Mainly zonal upper level flow will be present for the majority of the period. some brief periods of northwesterly flow are possible as some ridging tries to develop across the Inter-Mountain west towards the end of the week. At the surface some weak surface cold fronts look to move through the area however with the first one Thursday into Friday and another towards the end of the week into the new work week. As of this time no impacts are expected with these fronts. The main talk for the week will be the continued run of above normal temperatures as highs for most of the extended period look to be in to the mid 80s to low 90s except for the days in wake of the fronts. Some near record to record highs are possible Wednesday and perhaps again Saturday. At this time confidence is currently the highest in record highs being jeopardy Wednesday. For more detailed information on the record highs please see the Climate section below.&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1000 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as high pressure moves over the region. Winds, northeast around 10-15kts through 09z Tuesday, then light/variable. By 14z-15z, becoming east-southeast around 10kts, then shifting south 10-20-kts from about 18z-19z through about 00z Wednesday. Strongest gusts in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 639 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 After collaboration with NWS Boulder have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Kit Carson and Yuma counties for Tuesday afternoon. A surface high will move east through the morning allowing for southerly winds to return to the area. Dew points will remain low in the 20s resulting in RH values in the low to mid teens. Winds look to gust to around 30 mph with the strongest west of Highway 385. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Record/near record high temperatures are forecast for the following locations Wednesday, October 2... Goodland.....93 degrees set back in 1953 Burlington...92 degrees set back in 1997 Colby........93 degrees set back in 2006 Tribune......93 degrees set back in 2006 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ252-253. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...JN FIRE WEATHER...Trigg/JN CLIMATE...99
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
730 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A short period of wind gusts 30-35 mph is expected north of I-72 Tuesday morning, immediately behind a cold front. - There is a 20-30% chance low temperatures fall to less than 40 degrees Wednesday morning in low lying areas. If these colder temperatures materialize, there could be patchy frost. && .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Surface obs show the cold front extending from the northwest tip of Missouri into north central Wisconsin, with the drier air showing up nicely on nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. Most of the cloudiness this evening has been hanging out east of I-55, though some recent development has taken place west of there as well. The front is expected to begin moving into areas near Galesburg toward 3 am, reaching I-55 around 6 am and southeast Illinois toward 9-10 am. Main impact in our area will be a short period of wind gusts around 30-35 mph behind the front, mainly north of I-72, though the gustiness drops off south of there before midday. Lingering clouds should largely be scoured out once the front passes. Main forecast update was some minor adjustments to the dew point, sky and wind grids through Thursday to incorporate the latest trends. Geelhart && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 A cold front associated with a trough centered in Saskatchewan is still slated to approach our area from the west by sunrise tomorrow morning. As that front surges southeast-ward, it will outrun the better upper level support with the trough displaced to the north over northern MN/WI/Lake Superior. Nonetheless, the GFS suggests it`ll maintain a remarkably tight theta-E gradient (nearly 1 degK/mile) as it crosses areas near and west of I-57 tomorrow morning, weakening only a little as it departs the Prairie State during the afternoon-evening. Ahead of that front, dew points are forecast to remain in the 60s, which together with light winds and a loss of diurnally-driven cloud cover may result in some patchy fog formation. HREF probabilities (probs) for visibility less than 1/2 mile are around 10-25% near and east of Highway 50; NBM is comparably less aggressive in reducing visibilities (vis) with only 5- 10% probs for sub 1 mile vis, but thought it still worth carrying a patchy fog mention in the forecast so that stands at this juncture. Circling back to the aforementioned cold front: This will bring an abrupt end to whatever fog manages to form from the west in locations it reaches before sunrise/surface heating (where fog will be "burned off" from mixing). It will also bring a plunge in dewpoints which, if you believe the 30.12z HRRR, will drop ~15 degrees in an hour and ~25 in 3 - making it feel much drier and more Autumn-like in central IL. Also contributing to the Fall-like feeling in the air will be the sudden increase in winds which the HRRR suggests will gust to around 35 mph for a couple hours behind the front, where the sharpest pressure rises and briefly enhanced subsidence (from cold air advection, "CAA") will contribute to momentum transfer. These winds will be the strongest across our northwest counties, closer to the trough and thus beneath stronger winds aloft. West of I-55, NBM suggests 50-70% chances for wind gusts greater than 35 mph tomorrow morning, while further east those probs taper to less than 30%; the chance of hitting Wind Advisory criteria (45 mph) anywhere, however, remains less than 10%, so headlines will not be necessary. Given the perpetual turbulent mixing of the lower atmosphere by these gusty winds (which will still be gusting to 25+ mph throughout the afternoon given lack of clouds and hence deep mixing) and the associated cool advection from the northwest, our highs tomorrow will be nearly 10 degrees cooler than today (and more seasonable) - low 70s near and west of I-57. With a lack of clouds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, if winds should go slack near sunrise, it could be quite cool with lows in spots reaching the 30s. NBM certainly thinks so, with probs as high as 20-40% in rural, low spots (especially near the IL River Valley) for min temps less than 40 degF. Can`t rule out patchy frost if this manages to materialize; we`ll keep an eye on trends for winds and cloud cover tomorrow night, but at this time it seems it`d be too localized for a frost headline. After welcoming October with another taste of Fall, temps will rebound by Thursday as h5 heights gradually rise behind the departing trough and zonal flow overspreads the Midwest once again. Highs in the mid 70s to low 80s are forecast Thursday through Sunday, Thursday currently looking like the warmest day. Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the week, but a slight chance of precip enters the picture late Saturday night into Sunday as some guidance, including the deterministic ECMWF, brings a compact upper trough through the Great Lakes and precip attempts to form along its trailing cold front as it sweeps across the Ohio Valley. If warm advection is strong enough ahead of this front, we should be able to get enough moisture, and consequently instability, to even get some thunderstorms given the potential wind shear with this system. We`ll keep en eye on this system, though severe potential seems minuscule at this time. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Main aviation concern will be with the winds Tuesday morning, as a sharp cold front moves across central Illinois between 11-14Z. Light and variable winds ahead of it will quickly switch to the north-northwest, with a period of gustiness around 25-30 knots into midday. Gusts begin to back off some early afternoon, but sustained speeds will remain 10-15 knots. Ceilings near 4000 feet will prevail in eastern Illinois a good portion of the night, scattering out with the passage of the front. Latest HREF shows about a 30% chance of MVFR ceilings at KCMI around 12Z immediately ahead of the front, but it should not last long if it does pan out. Geelhart && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
655 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler temperatures return to the region on Tuesday before more seasonal temperatures return through the weekend. * No precipitation is expected with dry conditions prevailing through the weekend. * Near-critical fire conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday across much of western and north central Nebraska due to low humidity and strong winds. && .UPDATE... Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Looking at the latest HRRR guidance, am more concerned about lighter winds in the NW Sandhills and northeastern Panhandle overnight. With forecast lows in the lower 30s and lighter expected winds, feel more confident in frost headlines for Sheridan and western Cherry county. We will have some dry air to overcome for frost formation as current dew points in NW Nebraska are in the upper teens. With the expected degree of dry air, will keep the frost mention patchy. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 A quiet weather pattern will remain in place through the short term and into the foreseeable future. Conditions will remain dry through Tuesday as strong high pressure remains over the central US. With the passage of the cold front this morning, temperatures will drop significantly from the past several days. Highs tomorrow will only rise into the mid 60s to low 70s. For overnight lows tonight, temperatures will drop into the 30s for most locations. A few isolated locations across northern Nebraska could even see a low dip into the upper 20s. Would not be surprised if some patchy frost develops across the Sandhills and into the Pine Ridge where these colder temperatures are expected. However, due to slightly stronger winds and drier air overnight, no frost headlines have been issued. Tuesday night lows also remain cooler, but will only drop into the 40s, which is near normals for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Quiet and dry conditions continue through the end of next week as strong upper level ridging gives way to zonal flow. Outside of some warmer days on Wednesday (mid to upper 80s) and Saturday (mid 80s), temperatures remain near normal (in the mid 70s) through next weekend. While it`s possible to see these temperatures rise a bit over the next few days, the zonal flow will keep any major chances of warm air advection from infiltrating the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 North to northwest winds will remain gusty of 25 to 30 kts through shortly after sunset before subsiding and becoming light and variable overnight. VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Fire weather concerns return to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday as RH values drop and winds increase. Near-critical fire conditions are expected both days affecting much of the area. For Tuesday, near-critical fire conditions are expected with the lowest humidity values being across the Panhandle and portions of northern Nebraska. Afternoon RH values will drop to 15 percent or below with southerly winds gusting up to 20 to 25 mph. While it will be close, the strongest winds up to 30 mph are not expected to be correlated where the lowest RH values will be located. In addition, much cooler, below normal temperatures, are expected on Tuesday, helping to keep widespread fire concerns at bay. Have opted to hold off on any fire headlines this issuance, however, fuels are ready to burn, and a headline may still be raised overnight. For Wednesday, near-critical fire conditions are expected once again as humidity drops to near or below 15 percent in the afternoon. However, winds are anticipated to stay below 20 mph keeping much of our area from reaching widespread critical fire conditions. Will continue to monitor as the latest data comes in for Wednesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for NEZ004-094. && $$ UPDATE...Buttler SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Viken FIRE WEATHER...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
919 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Temperatures around the Mid-South range from the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Patchy fog is still forecast to develop this evening, and could become dense across portions of western Tennessee. Latest statistical and hi resolution guidance is most suggestive that this potential will develop toward sunrise, although dense fog development could occur earlier in areas where radiational cooling is most efficient. While current trends do not support the issuance of a dense fog advisory yet, the potential will continue to be evaluated and may be issued when needed. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible ahead of a southeastward moving cold front tomorrow. Have made minor changes to PoPs, otherwise the forecast is in good shape with no other changes planned or needed. JPR && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Patchy fog will be likely overnight with leftover soil moisture. High pressure will begin building over the region tomorrow, ahead of a cold frontal movement. Benign weather will prevail over the next seven days with near normal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Benign weather is present across the Mid-South this afternoon with current temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s as a stubborn stratus deck continues to linger with mostly light and variable winds at the surface. An upper level low pressure system continues to trail east, currently centered over the Kentucky and West Virginia border, resulting in possible isolated shower development through sunset today. This upper low will continue to weaken and move east as we head into the evening hours. Increased soil moisture from this lingering upper level low will lead to patchy to possible widespread fog development across the entire area overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed tonight with decreased visibilities, though will leave this decision to the evening crew, if warranted. Fog should lift by daybreak as winds begin to increase slightly. Ridging will begin slowly building in from the west tomorrow afternoon, drying us out and warming us up slightly. In this transition period, isolated shower development will be possible tomorrow afternoon with extra lift from a weak shortwave that looks to set up over the Missouri Bootheel. Temperatures will climb slightly tomorrow with highs in the low 80s across the area. A cold front will begin pushing northwest to southeast, across the Mid-South Wednesday morning, decreasing temperatures slightly into the mid 70s to low 80s. A dry airmass will follow this leading cold front, resulting in continued dry conditions across the region. Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will begin moving over the area Thursday, warming us up slightly with highs in the mid 80s Friday. Ensemble guidance denotes another cold front moving across the area Friday evening, increasing dewpoints out ahead of it with dry, slightly cooler air following it. As dewpoints increase ahead of this secondary front, isolated shower development will be possible, though non-mentionable PoPs were carried due to uncertainty. Temperatures will once again decrease into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The latest 8-14 day outlook has us staying near normal, in the upper 70s heading into mid October. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Patchy fog and low stratus clouds remain the primary aviation concern overnight. 12Z HREF guidance mean depicts IFR/LIFR coverage mainly near MKL. Latest HRRR has trended more pessimistic over west TN and north MS with respect to VSBY after 06Z. Relative to last night, northerly winds off the deck will stronger (15KT versus 5KT at FL020). This may result in just enough mixing of dry air aloft to limit surface VSBY reduction. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
823 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front passing over the UP tonight to bring light rain for most (but not all). Wind gusts overnight up to 30 mph, higher potential along Lake Superior. - Gusty west/northwest winds upwards of 35 mph possible (40-60% chance) over and along Lake Superior Tuesday. Winds shifting to the southwest remain breezy for Wednesday. - There could be some limited to elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday through Thursday as min RHs could dip to or below 30 percent. The day of greatest concern is Wednesday as min RHs are expected to get below 30 percent and a low-level jet moves overhead. - Frost possible early Friday and Saturday mornings in the interior areas. - Our next rain chances don`t look to return until at least late this week/next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a very dry airmass over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior this afternoon while RAP Analysis shows a surface trough associated with a cold front passing through Minnesota. This cold front is draped south from a 988mb low pressure approaching the western shores of Hudson Bay. Enhanced southerly flow ahead of this trough has allowed for some warmer temperatures over the UP today with the high temperature at MQT already up to 73, and some southerly downslope areas could touch 80 today. Overnight, the cold front to the west will pass over the UP going from west to east. CAMs show a broken line of showers passing through the UP in the overnight period, but it is not a given that everywhere will see rain as total PoPs from the HREF are only about 50% in the west, though some reinvigoration of showers is expected in the east in the early morning hours with about a tenth of an inch of precip expected. The bigger impacts will come in the winds, with rapid pressure changes and strong cold advection behind the front allowing for stronger winds to mix down to the surface. HREF mean wind gusts behind the front at up to 30 mph with some higher wind gusts possible along Lake Superior. The Euro ensemble mostly concurs with this, but does highlight up to 50% chances of the Keweenaw Peninsula seeing gusts exceeding 40 mph overnight, and those probabilities have trended upwards with each of the last 5 model runs. No land wind products are expected at this time. The cold advection behind the front will contribute to clearing skies and cooler air overall as lows fall into the 40s for all except the immediate shorelines. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 412 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Rainfall for the most part leaves our area Tuesday morning, although there is a slight chance (10-20%) that we could see some lake-effect sprinkles at times in the NW wind belts throughout the day (mainly over the east). Afterwards, winds pick up again Wednesday as a low- level jet moves overhead in response to a shortwave over northern Ontario. This could cause some elevated fire weather concerns Wednesday, as min RHs are expected to get below 30 percent in some of the interior areas. Expect temperatures to be around normal for Tuesday, and to increase to above normal once again by the middle of the week. However, the temperatures are not expected to be as warm as they have been the past several days and today. Another cold front looks to move through Wednesday night, but guidance is keeping us dry due to the antecedent dry air and high pressure ridging building in behind it from the Northern Plains. Our next best chance for rainfall doesn`t look to occur until at least the end of this week. As the last of the rainfall associated with the cold front ends over the east Tuesday morning, expect sunny skies to return to the area, in addition to some breezy northwesterly winds behind the front; we could see some spots near Lake Superior gust up to as high as 35 mph in the morning hours. Given the dry air via the ridging moving back in behind the front, we could see some limited fire weather concerns in the south central as min RHs approach 30 percent. However, the cooler temperatures behind the front could help to somewhat alleviate this concern Tuesday. With temperatures sharply dropping behind the cold front (highs only getting into the upper 50s to low 60s), we could see a few lake-effect clouds and possibly a few lake- effect sprinkles in the northwest wind belts throughout the day, mainly over the east where there will be more moisture flux from Lake Superior given the longer fetch. However, with model soundings showing a layer of dry air up to 5 thousand feet, lake-effect rainfall will have a hard time reaching the surface. Therefore, while there is about a 10 to 20% chance of seeing some lake-effect sprinkles over the northwest wind belts Tuesday, any appreciable precipitation amounts should be next to nothing. Moving into Tuesday night, mid to upper level cloud cover looks to move into our area as a shortwave over northern Ontario begins to lift. While we are very likely to remain dry (90% likelihood), the cloud cover may provide just enough insulation to prevent frost from forming over the interior areas. Therefore, while there is still a small chance (10-20%) of seeing patches of frost form Tuesday night, given the little bit of insulation from the cloud coverage, I think that will be enough to prevent its formation. As for lows, expect them to range from the mid 30s in the interior to the low to mid 40s along the Great Lakes. A low-level jet passes overhead Wednesday and could bring some breezy southwesterly winds over the U.P. throughout the day. In addition, with min RHs getting down below 30 percent in some spots and high temperatures of the mid 60s to around 70 expected, we could very well see some elevated fire weather concerns Wednesday. This situation will need to be monitored closely, as this weather setup could help in increasing wildfire spread. While a cold front looks to push through the area Wednesday night, no precipitation is expected with it as the mid and lower levels will remain dry and the better moisture will be further north in northern Ontario. More dry conditions could be seen Thursday too as high pressure ridging continues over the area. However, with winds being weaker, the fire weather threat doesn`t look to be as significant. Moving into late this week and this weekend, we could see some rain chances starting late Thursday night/Friday (mainly the east) as the GFS and Canadian as portray a shortwave digging through the Upper Great Lakes. However, with high pressure ridging building in directly behind this shortwave and the uncertainty of the shortwave`s strength and location, the certainty of the rain chances is rather small at this time (15-20%). Moving into late this weekend, model guidance does have better convergence on a solution bringing rainfall to the area. However, given that this is several days out and there are numerous errors in the models at this time, confidence in these rain chances are rather low (20 to 40% chance). Besides the rain, we could see some frost develop in the interior areas early Friday and Saturday mornings. Agricultural interests may want to take note and prepare beforehand, as the frost could damage unprotected crops. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 823 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 VFR conditions for duration of the TAF period despite cold front passage. The main threat with the front will be the strong southerly winds ahead of it through this evening, then northwesterly in its wake early tonight. Gusts of 25 to 30 kt will be possible along with a brief period of LLWS, especially at CMX around 03Z Tue. Wind gusts will subside by Tue 12Z at IWD and SAW, but will persist into this afternoon at CMX. Will also include VCSH mention at CMX and SAW early Tuesday morning, but little to no impact is expected with that. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots from the tip of the Keweenaw to the eastern Lake Superior buoy this afternoon and evening increase to northwest gales up to 35 knots behind a cold front late tonight, before the winds weaken to 20 to 30 knots Tuesday behind the front; therefore a Gale Warning has been issued for all of the open lake save for the far east from 11 PM EDT tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday. As ridging builds back over the area Tuesday afternoon, the winds begin to die back down, becoming 20 knots or less again by Tuesday evening. However, with a low-level jet moving in from the west late Tuesday night, winds begin building from the southwest, eventually becoming gales up to 40 knots by Wednesday morning mainly over the western half of the lake; NBM probabilities show that there is about a 30 to 40% chance that gale-force gusts up to 45 knots are possible mainly around Isle Royale around midday too. Expect another gale warning to be issued for this event once the first gale event is at least underway. As the low-level jet leaves the area late Wednesday, expect the winds to weaken to around 20 knots as they become more west and northwesterly. However, the westerly winds could gust back up to 20 to 30 knots over the western lake Thursday as a developing shortwave moves in from the west. Winds generally slacken to 25 knots or less Friday into early this weekend as high pressure once again rebuilds across our area. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for LSZ162- 241>244-263-264. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ249-250-265- 266. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...GS/TDUD MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
826 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 A band of deep tropical moisture over the Nature Coast allowed for scattered to numerous showers and storms to stream onshore there this afternoon, while ridging aloft and a drier air mass kept conditions largely rain free across the central portions of the forecast area. Over southwest Florida, a surge of moisture from the south allowed for a few showers and storms to develop this afternoon, and HREF is indicating that some of these showers could hold together overnight and lift north towards the Tampa Bay by early morning, although the HRRR keeps conditions drier. Rain chances have been tweaked slightly for the next few hours to keep up with radar trends and show the potential for these showers along the southwest Florida Coast. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track through the first couple of periods, with somewhat wetter conditions expected Tuesday afternoon across much of the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 825 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 A couple of stray showers or storms are continuing to occasionally impact area terminals, mostly over southwest Florida and the interior. Overnight, a few showers could linger around southwest Florida area terminals through after midnight, gradually lifting north and could impact Tampa Bay area terminals by around day break. More widespread thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon, potentially disrupting flight categories at area terminals by around 17-19z. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 High pressure in the southwest Atlantic will maintain light flow with winds less than 10 kts and seas less than 2 feet through the middle of the week. A cold front then moves through the area Wednesday into Thursday and this will cause winds to shift easterly and increase by the end of the week. In addition, a disturbance could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week and the National Hurricane Center has given this feature a 40% chance of development within the next 7 days so interests in the Gulf waters of west-central and Southwest Florida should monitor the progress of this system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 89 75 89 / 20 70 40 60 FMY 77 92 76 92 / 40 30 20 50 GIF 78 92 75 91 / 20 70 40 60 SRQ 77 90 75 91 / 20 60 40 50 BKV 74 90 72 89 / 10 70 30 60 SPG 80 90 79 89 / 20 60 40 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming MARINE...Giarratana