Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/30/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
912 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions expected through Monday due to
dry and windy conditions. Winds will gust to 45 mph at times, which
will cause any fires that ignite to spread rapidly and be difficult
to control. Burning should be avoided.
- Cooler air will be in place for Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures around average. Warmer air moves in for Wednesday with
temps running about 10 to 15 degrees above average.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Breezy/gusty southerly winds will persist overnight out ahead of
an approaching cold front. This front is still on track to move
into central SD after 06Z tonight, then makes its way eastward
towards the James River by around 12Z or shortly after. Forecast
already has this handled fairly well, so no changes expected. With
the winds and warm air in place, lows will stay mild and may not
fall below 60 degrees for many areas. No changes anticipated to
temps for the overnight either.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
As of 2pm, there is an upper longwave trough over the Pacific NW and
moving eastward. RAP analyzed upper jet streak is rounding the base
of the trough and helping to intensify a low from 999mb this morning
to 995mb now in central Saskatchewan. Farther east, a surface high
is located over southern Ontario and leading to a tight pressure
gradient over the Dakotas. This has helped pull in anomalously
warm air, with 850mb temps around 21-24C (well above 90th
percentile per KABR/KHON soundings back to 1954) and 925mb temps
in the mid-upper 20s. Thus, surface temps have warmed up upper 80s
and lower 90s thus far across the area. RAP analysis is showing
mixing still a little delayed in exceeding the 850mb warm nose,
thus winds have been slowly increasing thus far. But they still
have been gusting to 30- 35mph and expect that to increase in
central SD as the forecast is to mix up to 800-750mb. Expect the
highest gusts over north central SD, with brief gusts of 45-50mph
where the greatest max momentum transfer values are located in the
HREF members. The combination of the winds and the warm temps
producing RH values to 15-25% in central SD, the going Red Flag
Warning still looks to be in good shape.
As the low continues to slowly intensify as it moves northeast
through central Canada, it will drag a cold front southeast across
the Dakotas after midnight tonight and exit the CWA to the southeast
by mid day Monday. Ahead of the cold front, the low level jet will
be increasing (40-50kts at 0.5km above the surface), but confidence
is low on those strong winds actually reaching the surface with the
diurnal inversion developing consistently in the HREF ensemble
members. That being said, pressure gradient will keep the sustained
winds up in the 15-25mph range, with the gusts of 30-40mph likely
confined to higher terrain locations or ones favored by a little bit
of downsloping winds with southerly flow. Then as the dry cold front
moves through, expect the strongest winds to occur for a few hour
period, as strong low level cold air advection helps mix into the
stronger winds aloft. The front looks to arrive at Corson/Dewey
counties around 8Z, Pierre to Leola around 10Z, and
Sisseton/Watertown by 15Z. The question is if a wind advisory is
needed for that brief period, around 2-4hr, behind the front and
when diurnal mixing increases during the morning hours. HREF does
point towards that need (primarily in central SD), with the
ensemble max momentum transfer having winds up to or a little
above advisory criteria. Thus, opted for a wind advisory starting
as the front moves through central SD and kept it to the west of
the James River Valley area. Expect the winds to gradually
diminish through the late afternoon as diurnal heating is lost.
Finally for winds, will need to watch the eastern portion of the
Coteau late tonight into tomorrow morning, as winds try to turn to
a favorable downslope direction right before the frontal passage.
That could lead to advisory level winds there too on Monday
morning.
Now shifting back to the fire weather side of things. The RH is not
expected to have a whole lot of recovery over central SD this
evening and through the overnight hours. RH value look to rise into
the 20-30% range, which only puts them slightly over criteria and
with the arrival of the front, it keeps the fire weather risk up
through the night. Thus, opted to extend the warning through the
night and into Monday for the central SD counties (instead of a
brief period of no headlines this evening). That area also has the
driest fuels in the CWA. Farther east, we start to see an increase
in the percent green based on satellite NDVI, but with the dry
conditions over the recent week, they may be nearing fuel conditions
that would need to have a Red Flag Warning issued. That idea matches
the ERC percentiles, which shows that fuels are above the 90th
percentile across the CWA. With the drier air that moves in behind
the front (dewpoints in the upper 20s and lower 30s) that offsets
the colder temperatures (temperatures in the 70s), RH values are
expected to be in the 18-24% range across the entire CWA. Thus,
converted the existing watch areas to a Red Flag Warning and issued
a watch for the rest of the eastern areas.
Finally for Monday night, high pressure will slide from central MT
and southeast to western NE by 12Z on Tuesday. That will help weaken
winds through the night across the area, especially in south central
SD. Expect there to be enough of a lingering gradient over northeast
SD and west central MN to keep winds in the 5-15mph range. How much
those winds will stay up with influence temps. If they diminish to
be calm, could see lows dropping to or below freezing, which is
shown in northern SD on the MET/MAV guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Clusters are in agreement along with deterministic models on
northwest flow continuing Tuesday, on the eastern side of a ridge,
over the Northern Plains behind the exiting shortwave. Another
shortwave will push west to east over the southern Canadian
territories Tuesday into Wednesday, which will break down the ridge,
creating zonal flow over the Northern Plains. Wednesday into
Thursday, another ridge moves over the western CONUS, moving
slightly east and becoming highly amplified into the weekend, as the
low in Canada finally starts to weaken as it moves north/northeast.
Overall zonal flow looks to continue through the end of the week. We
start to see a bit of a difference between the Cluster ensembles
Friday into the weekend on exact position and amplitude of the ridge.
At the surface, models are in agreement with a high pressure system
centered over the central Plains on Tuesday, keeping the weather
quiet with light winds. The 850mb to surface trough, associated with
the incoming shortwave, will be over MT/southern Canada. As the high
shifts southeast, the trough moves in with the axis positioned over
the Northern Plains into Manitoba by early Wednesday with its warm
front extending southward over the Dakotas. WAA winds increase just
above the surface out of the southwest (LLJ) over the eastern CWA
during the early morning hours on Wednesday. This may cause for
downsloping winds along and east of the Coteau. Latest models show
winds will increase around 06-07Z with sustained winds between 15-
25kts with gusts up to 35kts. This will decrease through the morning
as the LLJ pushes east. Other than some mid level moisture with the
shortwave, dry air continues from 850mb-surface across the CWA with
ensembles indicating winds shifting from the south (behind the warm
front) to the northwest as the cold front sweeps across the CWA
through the day on Wednesday. With CAA behind the front and a
steeper pressure gradient between the low and incoming high, winds
could get a bit breezy with gusts 25-30 kts, mainly from north
central SD and northward into ND Wed afternoon where low level lapse
rates are steeper and winds gustier aloft. With forecasted MIN RH
values in the upper teens to the mid 20 percentile range midday into
the afternoon along with the increased winds across central SD, this
could lead to an elevated fire concern. This high moves in and will
be out dominant over the area through the end of the week.
With the high pressure and a cooler air mass overhead for Tuesday,
highs will be back to around normal, ranging in the 60s to around 70
as the model spread between the 25-75th percentile range is only 3
to 5 degrees across the CWA. WAA moves in Wednesday morning and will
be over the area behind the warm front with highs back in the upper
70s to the mid 80s, warmest over central SD. Behind the cold front
and incoming high, CAA takes over with highs back down in the 60s
for Thursday (and lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s!) and mid
to upper 60s/lower 70s for Friday, however, the spread does increase
between 5-7 degrees and 7-13 degrees for the weekend due to model
variability this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
southerly winds overnight will switch to the northwest through the
TAF period as a cold front moves east across the region. Low-level
wind shear (LLWS) will be a concern tonight as well, and have
inserted mention of this into the TAFs.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Monday for SDZ003-004-
009-015-016-033>035-045-048.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/
Monday for SDZ003-015-033-045-048.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for SDZ004-005-009-
010-016-017-034>037-051.
Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for SDZ005-010-017-
036-037-051.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for SDZ006-018.
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
742 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
- Heat ramps up tomorrow, more locations see highs in the 90s.
- Cold front Monday night into Tuesday brings breezy winds and
cooler temperatures.
- Above average heat comes right back Wednesday onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
The heat is back on tomorrow thanks to upper level ridging
currently spanning from the southwest to midwest CONUS. Even as
high pressure weakens with an approaching trough over southern
California, warming 850mb temps will push our way. Daytime highs
tomorrow will easily climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s area wide
as a result. Record highs appear less likely, but that`s of little
consequence considering just how unseasonably warm it will be for
late September.
We finally catch a break as the aforementioned trough allows a
cold front to enter the northern Panhandles Mon night - Tue
morning. The initial impacts of the front will be seen across the
north-northwestern Panhandles, when winds will begin to ramp up
out of the northeast. Latest 12z runs of the HRRR and NAM Nest
depict gusts up to 30-35 mph possible with the frontal passage as
early as midnight, lasting into Tue morning. While the breeze will
make it feel cooler, most folks should still wake up to low temps
in the 50s just like most mornings as of late. Precipitation is
not expected with this front.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Still tracking trends on Tuesday, when a cold front is expected
to enter the area. Model guidance continues to fluctuate on how
much of a temperature difference this front will ultimately make,
but they`re finally starting to converge on some middle ground.
Latest forecasts show breezier winds with the front Tuesday
morning thanks to a tighter pressure gradient. These north-
northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 35 mph) would allow
slightly better advection of cooler air to the Panhandles before
the front stalls out through the day. Right now, most of the
Panhandles can expect highs in the 70s Tuesday afternoon, with
temps in the low 80s more likely along and south of the I-40
corridor. If cooler guidance such as the NAM pans out, highs may
even be 5-10 degrees cooler than NBM projections, but this isn`t
the most likely outcome.
High pressure and heat promptly returns midweek onward, with highs
progged to be in the 80s to low 90s each day. Winds will be
lighter, but still breezy at times. Overnight lows should stay
steady in the 50s. Another weak front could make a push towards
the Panhandles by Friday, but long range models are less than
thrilled with this potential.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Dry weather continues to hold through the overnight leaving all
terminals in VFR conditions for the period. Otherwise, expect
winds to stay light for the night with all terminals seeing
surface winds less than 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 56 93 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 53 93 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 52 90 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 57 97 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 54 93 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 54 91 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 57 91 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 50 89 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 51 92 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 54 93 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 56 93 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 57 93 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 57 93 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 57 93 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1030 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions expected across much of
western and south central North Dakota tonight through Monday.
- Much cooler with strong northwest winds on Monday.
- Increasing potential for areas of frost across western North
Dakota Monday night into Tuesday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
It appears as if the cold front has just entered the northwest
corner of the state. Western portions of Divide county are
starting to see winds shifting to out of the northwest.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed behind the
front across eastern Montana and should approach the North
Dakota border over the next hour or so. For this reason, we
decided to introduce isolated precipitation chances gradually
moving through the west and then portions of the central in the
03z to 08z time frame. RAP soundings suggest that we could see a
couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across portions of the west until
around 06z or so, so we did add an isolated mention of thunder
until then.
Finally, we let the Red Flag Warning expire on time for Ward,
McHenry, McLean, Sheridan, Burleigh, and Kidder counties.
Humidity values have recovered mainly into the 30 to 40 percent
range and the winds are not quite as strong as they were
earlier. Winds will increase again late tonight and tomorrow,
but cooler temperatures should lead to higher humidity values
for the counties mentioned above. Much of the south central and
portions of southwest North Dakota remain in a Red Flag Warning
through 7 PM CDT Monday and at 1 AM CDT on Monday it will also
go into effect for Bowman, Slope, Billings, Golden Valley, Dunn,
McKenzie, and Williams counties. The Wind Advisory remains in
good shape.
UPDATE
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
We have seen well above normal heat for the end of September
across western and central North Dakota this afternoon.
Hettinger officially hit 100 degrees and as of this evening, we
still have several sites still sitting in the mid to upper 90s.
Bismarck has shattered the record high today (we hit 97 at the
Bismarck airport, breaking the old record of 90) with Minot and
Dickinson also breaking records (Williston would have broken
the record if the reading was still at the old airport). The Red
Flag Warning remains in good shape with widespread dry and windy
conditions still going strong.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Currently, upper ridge axis has shifted to the east as a well
defined mid level S/WV moves onshore and advances inland across
the far Pacific Northwest/Southwestern Canada. Associated
sfc/mid level low has resulted in increasing southerly flow
into the region, promoting strong WAA and unseasonably warm
temperatures across the Dakotas. Boundary layer temperatures
are at or above the 99th percentiles of climatology today, with
record high temperatures already set at several locations
across western and central ND. Coupled with strong moderate to
strong mixing, afternoon relative humidity has fallen into the
teens and 20s, resulting in critical fire weather conditions
central and across parts of southwest ND. The Red Flag warning
thus remains valid (See Fire Weather Discussion Below for more
information).
The aforementioned S/WV will continue east along far southern
Canada/Northern Plains region tonight into Monday, and will
drive a strong cold FROPA through the region later this Sunday
evening through early Monday. Resultant weather will be
northwest winds increasing west to east, along with much cooler
temperatures surging into the region (Highs Monday upper 50s
northwest - low 70s southern James Valley), around 20-35 degrees
cooler than today. The main concern with the frontal passage
remains strong wind and fire weather. Opted to issue a wind
advisory across the entire CWA from 03Z this evening through the
day Monday. Strongest winds will likely occur along and behind
the FROPA tonight-Monday morning, where winds will gust to
around 50 mph. BUFKIT soundings and ensemble probabilities are
in agreement with warning criteria winds remaining aloft, but
wouldn`t be surprised to see a few +58 mph gusts late
tonight/early Monday with the front.
Very dry air will also accompany the frontal passage, and will
result in another period of critical fire weather. Opted to
upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for tonight/Monday to a Red Flag
based on the projected Min humidity, strong northwest winds, and
in collaboration with our neighbors. The Red Flag over western
ND will start late tonight, while the Red Flag south central and
for parts of the southwest will basically remain valid now
through Monday. Again, see Fire Weather discussion below for
details.
A quasi-zonal flow pattern remains forecast for the remainder
of the work week, with mainly dry weather conditions and
temperatures more seasonal. The probabilities for morning frost
and minimum temperatures dropping to around freezing continue to
increase for Tuesday morning west, with another chance next
week Friday morning. In addition, can`t rule out more elevated
fire weather concerns next week, as fuels cure and we see
several dry and breezy days ahead.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period with dry weather.
However, it will remain fairly windy through the period. A cold
front will cross the state from northwest to southeast
overnight, shifting the winds from out of the south to out of
the northwest. The windiest time frame will be in the morning
and afternoon hours on Monday. Sustained winds up to 30 mph and
gusts to 55 mph will be possible. There also may be some
enhanced low level wind shear over KBIS and KJMS overnight.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NDZ009-
017-018-031-032-040-043.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NDZ019-
020-033-034-041-042-044>047-050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably hot Monday afternoon in the lower 90s.
- Strong cold front Monday evening will bring northeast wind
gusts near 40 mph, followed by refreshingly cooler air
Tuesday.
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
through at least October 10th.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
18z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a large upper
level ridge and surface high across much of the central plains
through the desert southwest. Water vapor analysis displaying a
large segment of dry air from southwest Kansas through New
Mexico leading to no clouds in site across much of the region.
Short term highlights will be unseasonably warm temperatures on
Monday. An upper level trough that will move into the northern
plains will eject a cold front through Nebraska into northwest
Kansas during the day on Monday. Ahead of the front with
southwest downsloping winds and very little moisture for cloud
cover we should see efficient prefrontal compressional heating.
850 mb temperatures are forecast to range from 22-28 (C) by 21Z
and we should see highs for much of southwest Kansas reach at
least 90 degrees. HREF probabilities of 60-70% of hourly
temperatures > 90F in the afternoon and NBM MaxT probabilities
of 50-70% of > 90F shows good confidence we should have high
temperatures in the low 90s.
Short term deterministic models has the leading edge of the
front reaching our northwest zones by 21-22Z Monday and then
quickly moving through the rest of the CWA by 06Z Tuesday.
Models are probably lo w with the wind speeds as with the sharp
baroclinic zone and pressure gradient we should see wind speeds
at 20-30 mph with gusts over 30 with the post frontal winds
through at least late morning Tuesday. Loaded NBM90th percentile
winds for sustained and gusts as a result. With little moisture
every model has virtually no chance of rain.
Tuesday should bring cooler temperatures at around 20 degrees
cooler than Monday. 25-75 percentile spreads for MaxT on
Tuesday range at 3-4 degrees so high confidence that the post
frontal cooldown will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Long range ensemble clusters keep an upper level weather pattern
of a large ridge over the western CONUS with the main upper jet
staying across Canada and northern plains. This could be the
first signs of the upper level pattern being affected by the
upcoming La Nina pattern as the climate prediction center`s
latest update have 71% chance of a La Nina emerging in the fall
and continuing through the winter. Ensemble clusters also have
virtually 0% chance of any measurable precipitation through the
next week. Despite the fact long range outlooks for MaxT
temperatures continues to have a wide spread of 13-16
degrees...this pattern will continue to favor a warmer regime.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Excellent flying weather will continue through 00z Tue, with
more VFR/SKC and light winds. A dry cold front will race through
the airports 00-03z Tue, with strong northeast winds gusting
30-35 kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
713 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Aside for patchy fog each of the next two nights, no other
weather-related impacts are forecast for central Illinois
through Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Regional radar mosaics show isolated showers continuing from
southwest Illinois into western Ohio. Water vapor imagery shows
drier air building southward with time, so the lingering rain
should diminish from north to south this evening. Have extended
some 20% rain chances over the southeast third of the forecast
area for another 2-3 hours.
A fairly large clear area has emerged across locations northwest
of I-55, but additional clouds continue to stream southwest from
Indiana. Some adjustments have been made to the sky trends for
this evening as a result. Getting past midnight, low stratus is
expected to become more predominant over eastern Illinois, though
skies become partly cloudy once again west of I-55.
Geelhart
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Residual low-level moisture and forcing associated with the
remnants of Helene will result in isolated showers this afternoon
and again Monday afternoon in areas south of a Paris to
Shelbyville line. Any diurnal showers that do develop will be
light and transient, with 48-hr QPF totals only offering a few
hundredths of precip. Perhaps the greater nuisance will be
forecasting clouds and fog the next couple nights.
While the fog probabilities offered by both the hi-res ensemble
(HREF) and blended guidance (NBM) are low for tonight and Monday
night (currently a 10-30% chance for visibility < 3 miles), there
are a select few deterministic, hi-res solutions such as the HRRR
that paint areas of dense fog (< 0.5 mile) throughout southeast
Illinois Monday night. Any coverage of fog tonight will be
confined west of I-55, where some partial clearing occurs, while
any fog that develops Monday night could be confined to areas east
of I-55 where soils remained damp from residual daytime
cloudiness. Of these next two nights, the synoptic set-up for fog
looks more favorable Monday night, and we will continue to
monitor trends in guidance.
The Tuesday - Saturday Night time frame continues to look mostly
dry despite a pair of shortwave troughs and attendant cold fronts
pushing through our region. Simply put, we will lack the moisture
return ahead of these fronts, with low-level flow mostly from the
north along the Gulf coast through next Saturday. Additionally,
strong mid-level ridging to our west throughout the week should
mitigate any recycled Pacific moisture from reaching central
Illinois as well. These trends are well-depicted by both WPC`s
7-day QPF and CPC`s 6-10 day precip outlook, which signal very
little precip.
Otherwise, temperatures are trending a hint above normal through
the next week as temperatures surge into the low 80s on Monday and
Thursday ahead of the cold fronts but then slump into mid-to-low
40s behind the fronts.
MJA
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Main aviation concerns will be with ceilings late night into
Monday morning. Latest model guidance has trended toward higher
risk of MVFR or even IFR conditions, with 18Z HREF highlighting
about a 60-70% chance of ceilings below 1,000 feet at KBMI/KCMI.
Areas further west may stay partly cloudy longer, though brief IFR
ceilings can`t be ruled out toward 12Z around KSPI/KPIA. Ceilings
should improve through the day, though it may take until early
afternoon to get back to VFR in east central Illinois.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
919 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Skies were partly cloudy to mostly cloudy across the Midsouth at
9 PM, with winds generally calm. Greatest cloud cover was evident
along and west of the MS River. KNQA radar sensed isolated light
returns in this region, consistent with showers. Patchy drizzle
was reported via mPING over north MS, outside of the stronger
radar returns.
Latest runs of the HRRR continue to indicate dense fog developing
east of the MS River after midnight. Dewpoint depressions in this
region were running a 0-2 degrees F at 9 PM. With calm winds, fog
development will be likely where skies partially clear overnight.
Current forecast remains on track.
PWB
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Cloudy, drizzly, and cool conditions will continue on Monday as
an upper level low pressure system slowly pulls away. Dry and
seasonably warm conditions will return Tuesday and persist through
next weekend as high pressure remains over the region. High
temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows
in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Scattered light rain showers continue this afternoon as a
stubborn and expansive upper level low pressure system remains
over the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. This system will
slowly fill and break apart over the next 24 hours or so. As it
does, cloud cover will thin and fog will develop overnight across
much of the region. Light winds and a saturated boundary layer
will result in some dense fog development along and east of the
Mississippi River. HREF probabilities are quite high ranging from
40 to 80 percent for visibilities of less than one quarter of a
mile across west Tennessee and north Mississippi. Went with
widespread fog for now, but there is increasing confidence that
that fog could become dense.
Cool, cloudy, and drizzly conditions will continue on Monday as
the system slowly pushes south and east of the region.
Temperatures will be a tad warmer with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Fog is possible again Tuesday morning as winds go calm
and skies clear.
A weak and dry cold front will move through the Mid-South Tuesday.
A few light showers are possible, mainly south of I-40. Thereafter,
dry and seasonable temperatures will persist through next weekend.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s
and 60s. Dry and warm conditions look to persist through the long
term forecast as the polar jet remains displaced to the north and
east of the region.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Main aviation concerns pertain to the development of widespread fog
and low stratus across the airspace overnight. LIFR conditions
are expected at most sites, with the potential for IFR conditions
at JBR. Gradual improvement to MVFR is expected by the mid
morning tomorrow, with VFR conditions prevailing by the afternoon.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JPR