Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/29/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
612 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
Warmer temperatures expected on Monday with 30-50% probability of 90
degrees or higher MaxT.
A dry passage of a cold front will move through western Knasas
Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Dry weather is all but certain as long range ensembles continue to
show > 5% chance of receiving 0.01 inch of rain through day 8.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
18Z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a large upper low
with the remnants of Helene centered over the Ohio River valley near
Paducah, KY with the residual moisture in the form of high
clouds across eastern Kansas. The moisture west of Wichita is
much less as we have sunny skies across western Kansas. An upper
level ridge with a 591 dm high is across the desert southwest
and Rockies with the upper level over the Pacific northwest.
Short term models continue the trend for the rest of the weekend
with quiet and tranquil weather across western Kansas. Wind speeds
will be light and variable through Sunday and skies will be clear as
a result of the ridge and high pressure across the region. NBM MaxT
25th-75th percentile spreads for Sunday are only around 3 degrees
which suggest high confidence of highs reaching into the mid to
upper 80s.
Monday an approaching upper level trough with the jet max will
quickly move through the northern plains and as a result the
momentum will bring a cold front that will be moving through
Nebraska into northwest Kansas by late afternoon. With
compressional heating ahead of the front leading to 850 mb temps to
warm to 21-26 (C). Higher confidence of MaxT >90 will exist in the
areas of strongest heating which will be roughly along and west of
highway 83 as probabilities of 50-60% we will achieve at least 90
degrees. This confidence is further showing with only a 3 degree
spread in NBM MaxT 25-75 percentiles at 3 degrees.
Most deterministic and ensemble models show the passage of the cold
front to move through western Kansas between 00-06Z Tuesday.
Postfrontal winds should pick up a bit to 15-30 through the mid
morning hours on Tuesday but with little moisture rain chances will
be around 0%. MaxT on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s.
Long term ensembles clusters are highly confident that we will stay
in the dry regime with a large ridge staying firmly over the western
and northern CONUS. What they vary on is how amplified the ridge
will be and this is leading to a spread in MaxT in the later
portions of the week with highs ranging from the mid 80s to as cool
as the upper 60s. Given the pattern looks dry, cloud free, and
higher confidence in the more stout ridge...expect highs to be
closer to the 80 degree range.&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds could briefly gust to 15-18 kts this afternoon but overall
the wind speeds will be 12 kts or less.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Weak surface high pressure and an upper level ridge of high
pressure will result in light and variable winds through the
period. VFR conditions can be expected with clear skies.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Finch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
514 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure remains in control for the next several days.
- Sunny, dry, and unseasonably warm temperatures remain in place
through next week.
- Some models indicate very isolated convection over the higher
terrain while others keep dry weather in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Plenty of cumulus clouds have popped over the higher terrain
this afternoon but the question remains whether we`ll see any
showers or storms. The latest hourly NBM PoP grids removed any
mention of precip though the HRRR and the NAMNEST especially
keep some QPF in the forecast. The 12Z sounding, however, does
show a fairly strong inversion at midlevels and current webcams
show relatively flat Cu which would indicate stable midlevels.
Like Pueblo, went ahead and will follow the latest NBM guidance
and removed any mention of showers or storms. Of course, now
that it`s been removed, am sure some will occur later on this
afternoon. If it does occur, dry subcloud layers will likely
preclude any precip from reaching the ground leaving only some
gusty winds to contend with. Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies, dry
conditions, and unseasonably warm temperatures will be the rule.
Sunday, a shortwave trough will be moving across Canada, MT and
WY and by doing so will flatten the ridge that has been over our
area for the last several days. The location of the high
pressure center won`t change all that much despite an area of
low pressure to our west. In fact, the low won`t move much
either. Like today, the NBM is keeping us dry and will follow
suit with this forecast. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some
isolated convection pop up in the 00Z forecast package but for
now, will hold off. Look for a repeat of today for tomorrow then:
dry, sunny, and warm temperatures remain in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2024
On a positive note the model trends are similar to yesterday
for higher confidence...the bad news...no significant
precipitation is in sight for next week. The northern stream
will take another dip southward as the next deep cyclone moves
across the Canadian Prairies on Monday. This will induce a drier
northwest flow pattern over the Central Rockies and flush the
moisture to or past our southern CWA border through the day.
Can`t guarantee the CU won`t get agitated enough over the San
Juans to produce a late day shower but it is not probable. This
mositure is suppress to our South by High pressure extending
out of the EPac into the S.High Plains keeping the mainly dry
and very warm conditions locked in through day 7. The moisture
may get pulled back northward very late in the week and into the
weekend as a much stronger trough takes hold of the E.Pac
latitudes and moves into the PacNW. The SW flow which had been a
drier flow pattern will pull this moisture back through but
attm the forcing remains unorganized and the convective output
is minimal at best. Temperatures look to continue to run in the
5 to 15 degree above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Another round of midlevel clouds and a few sprinkles has formed
over the higher terrain of the San Juans and central Divide
mountains. These will dissipate after sunset, with clear skies
prevailing through tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and
terrain driven. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24
hours.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1143 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area through Sunday
night as high pressure noses in from the northeast. The high
remains Monday and Tuesday as low pressure tracks east through
the Mid Atlantic Monday and moves offshore Monday night into
Tuesday. A cold front then passes through Wednesday afternoon
into night, followed by high pressure through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Adjusted forecast to have categorical POPs for the rest of
tonight for either drizzle or light rain. Rain amounts of just
a few hundredths of an inch or less expected. Otherwise,
remaining cloudy with easterly winds which will keep
temperatures from falling too much. Increased mins slightly,
mainly in the lower 60s.
High pressure remains across the northeast and nosing into the
region through Sunday. Meanwhile, a stationary front remains
south of the region, near the Delmarva region, with a weak
frontal wave along the coast.
Upper riding does build into the northeast Sunday, as the
surface high noses a little farther to the south. Light rain
remains possible across the southwestern sections, and have
maintained chances probabilities into Sunday morning, then went
dry across the forecast area, although some global guidance does
hint at some light rain Sunday afternoon. The HRRR also
indicates some redevelopment of rain across coastal sections
during the day Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
With the high remaining across the northeast and into the
forecast area, keeping the region mainly dry until later Monday
as the surface high is expected to begin to weaken and the
frontal wave along the mid Atlantic coast begins to track into
the western Atlantic. There is some uncertainty with the
strength of the high and timing of its weakening Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast and slowly
passes to our south offshore Monday night through Tuesday night.
Still some differences among the global models regarding the
northern periphery of rainfall from this system with the GFS
being the northern outlier. Will remain close to NBM PoPs and
maintain a slight chance to a chance of rain through the period.
Any rain amounts should be light.
For Wednesday, weak high pressure remains over the forecast
area in the wake of the offshore low drifting farther east. A
cold front approaches during the day and passes through most
likely during the afternoon to evening hours. Moisture will be
limited by the time this occurs, so it likely remains dry. High
pressure builds in behind the front and remains in control
through Saturday with a continuation of dry weather. High
temperatures through the long term forecast shouldn`t stray too
far from seasonable, which is generally 70-75.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A stationary front remains south of the region through Sunday
night.
Expecting mainly IFR ceilings tonight into Sunday morning along
with intermittent drizzle or light rain. There could very well
be some fluctuation between MVFR and IFR. Visibilities with the
light rain and some patchy fog will vary mainly between MVFR and
VFR. On the other hand, KGON will have a mainly VFR forecast
without as much rain.
The rain chances lower Sunday, so have just VCSH for Sunday
morning and do not mention rain for Sunday afternoon but even
then some light rain cannot be ruled out. Expecting ceilings to
lift from IFR to MVFR. Low chance of the ceilings could lift to
VFR late Sunday.
Winds will be overall from the east near 10 kt on average through
the TAF period. Some 15-20 kt gusts will be possible along the
coast both tonight and on Sunday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertainty with category forecast, low to moderate confidence.
There could be fluctuation between IFR and MVFR tonight into
Sunday morning.
Moderate confidence wind forecast. Occasional gusts to near 20
kt possible this evening and on Sunday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night: MVFR initially, eventually becoming VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain late Monday into Monday night
with MVFR.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain. ENE wind gusts 15-20 kt,
diminishing at night.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A strong pressure gradient remains over the western ocean
waters, west of Moriches Inlet, with strong and gusty easterly
winds continuing into Sunday morning. With the winds slower to
diminish, have extended the SCA for these waters until 800 PM
EDT Sunday. For the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet, the
timing of seas falling below 5 feet still looks OK, and the
advisory ends there at 200 PM EDT Sunday. Once ocean small craft
conditions end winds and seas are expected to remain below
advisory criteria through Monday.
Conditions across the non-ocean zones are expected to remain
below advisory criteria through the rest of the forecast period.
As for the ocean waters, both winds and seas reach advisory
thresholds Monday night with an easterly flow. This remains the
case through Tuesday night, but SCA conds will continue through
Wednesday night due to seas remaining elevated with a lingering
ESE swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip current development continues through Sunday
with long period southeast swells.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...