Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/23/24
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1031 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Off and on showers will continue through Tuesday. Storm total
rainfall will be greatest along and south of the I-72 corridor
where 1 to 2 inches will occur.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Latest surface map shows the cold front approaching a Shelbyville
to Paris line. Rainfall this evening has been fairly scattered,
though a larger area of light rain is moving toward the western
CWA, and the most recent HRRR run shows it making it to about
Peoria before fading out. Thunder has been non-existent in our CWA
as of late, and the threat steadily diminishes as the front gets
further southeast. For the most part, lingering showers should be
over before midnight, with additional showers moving northeast
toward a Jacksonville-Effingham line toward daybreak.
Recent forecast updates were to update the rain trends into early
tomorrow, and significantly dial back the thunder chances this
evening. Temperatures appear to be on track at this time.
Geelhart
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front between the Illinois
River and the I-55 corridor. Scattered showers are beginning to
re-develop ahead of the boundary...particularly east of I-55.
Think areal coverage will continue to increase over the next
couple of hours, resulting in 60-70 PoPs across the E/SE KILX CWA
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening.
The front will settle southeastward tonight, eventually stalling
just north of the Ohio River overnight. With forcing shifting to
the south and slightly drier air advecting into the region behind
the departing cold front, think early evening showers will come
to an end and mostly dry weather can be anticipated overnight.
Low temperatures will range from the middle 50s northwest of the
Illinois River...to the middle 60s south of I-70.
The front will remain stalled across the Ohio River Valley on
Monday as a short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor
imagery over Colorado approaches from the west. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of the boundary...with
the best rain chances during the day remaining focused south of
I-70. As the wave gets closer and a weak surface low develops and
tracks along the front, increased synoptic lift will bring another
round of light to moderate rain to much of central Illinois Monday
night.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Showers will be ongoing Tuesday morning, but will shift eastward
and come to an end from west to east during the afternoon. Storm
total rainfall from yesterday through Tuesday will be greatest
along/south of I-72 where amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be common.
After a period of dry weather Tuesday night into Wednesday, the
forecast for later in the period becomes a bit more complex as a
short-wave trough currently over northern Alberta digs southeastward
and cuts off over the Mississippi River Valley by mid to late
week. The exact evolution of this process remains unclear as
synoptic model solutions vary. Another complicating factor will be
the presence of a potential tropical system most models are
forecasting to track northward through the Gulf of Mexico by
Thursday/Friday. This system will likely shunt the upper low N/NW
as it approaches the Gulf Coast...potentially bringing an extended
period of scattered showers to portions of the Midwest Thursday
through the upcoming weekend. Some solutions even suggest tropical
moisture may be entrained by the upper low, although this does not
seem particularly plausible. End result is a low confidence
forecast featuring low chance PoPs for the end of the week into
next weekend.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Aside from VFR conditions at KSPI late evening, much of central
Illinois had ceilings below 2000 feet. A small area of IFR
ceilings has been pushing southeast from KBMI-KCMI, with latest
HREF guidance suggesting this will remain the case through about
10-11Z. While some improvement is expected around KPIA by mid
morning Monday, the MVFR conditions should prevail over much of
the area through the day. Periods of showers will track northeast
and may reduce visibility temporarily to a few miles, most likely
during the morning.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
646 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms today and
Monday afternoon and evening. Main hazards will be damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph, small hail, and brief heavy
downpours.
- Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Monday night (40-85% chance). Most locations
will see an additional 0.50 to 2 inches of rainfall through
Monday, with a flooding threat across the eastern Ozarks from
localized higher amounts of 3 to 6 inches.
- Much cooler temperatures will occur this week with highs in
the 70s.
- Rainfall chances (30-50%) are increasing for late in the week
however confidence remains low with the track of the system.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis showed an upper level disturbance spinning across
Colorado and Nebraska. Broad southwest flow aloft was occuring
across our area with a moist and unstable airmass in place. The
12Z KSGF sounding measured a PW value of 1.7in and 1000j/kg of
MU CAPE. Most of the area was dry early this afternoon however
we were watching a few features. One being a weak boundary
that was diffuse but could be seen on satellite imagery from
roughly Branson to Eminence. A few showers and storms were
beginning to develop along this boundary as convective temps
have been reached. The actual cold front (with temps in the 60s
behind it) was still just northwest of the CWA from roughly
Kansas City to Eureka, Kansas. Several breaks in the clouds have
allowed for temps to climb into the low 80s across the area.
This afternoon through this evening: Latest high res guidance
suggests that the highest chance of thunderstorms this afternoon
will occur along the weak boundary to the southeast of
Springfield. 2000j/kg of ML CAPE and 30kts of effective shear
will allow for a few organized storms which may produce some
downbursts to 60mph. Heavy rainfall rates will occur with the
strongest storms given the high PW values. More uncertain is
development along the actual front as it moves into the area.
Would expect at least a few showers and storms to develop along
the front this afternoon and evening and have kept pops in the
20-40% range. It is possible that many areas remain dry through
early evening.
Tonight: Strong lift will occur both from an increasing low
level jet nosing into the area along with upper level jet
interactions. The cold front will also be moving through the
area. An area of showers and thunderstorms will likely move
from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri generally after
9pm, lasting through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings
from the RAP suggest MU CAPE values around 1300j/kg and PW
values around 1.8in therefore thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
rates will likely occur.
Monday: An area of showers and storms will likely continue
through most of the day as lift will remain present. A weak
surface low looks to move up the front during the afternoon. If
enough instability can develop across south central Missouri
then a few severe thunderstorms would develop. Confidence
remains low with respect to any severe potential however we will
need to watch the area along the Missouri/Arkansas border for a
wind and hail threat. Northerly winds, clouds and rain looks to
keep temperatures much cooler than previous days and have gone
closer to the 25th percentile with highs in the lower to middle
60s north of Springfield to around 70 elsewhere. Rainfall will
slowly end Monday night as the trough starts to move east.
Rainfall Amounts: Overall rainfall amounts have been too high
for today thus far (forecast versus observed). However it does
appear that rainfall tonight and Monday will be heavier for
areas south of I-44 and east of Highway 65. There remains a high
spread in total qpf from the HREF with the Joplin area between
0.2-0.9in, Springfield area between 0.9-2 inches and West
Plains/Alton areas between 2.3-4.8 inches. Localized flash
flooding will be possible across the eastern Ozarks where the
rainfall will linger the longest.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Confidence decreases as we head through the week due to the
track of a couple of upper level features. One feature is an
upper low that will drop south into the northern plains Tuesday.
Ensemble clusters still have varying differences on the track of
this low. If the low tracks over us then we will likely remain
cloudy and very cool (highs in the low 70s) Tuesday and
Wednesday. The other key feature will be the development of a
tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico this week. Ensembles
generally take this feature into the southeast US with some
potential that it gets entangled with the upper low over our
area and moves west. If this occurs then our rainfall chances
will increase towards the end of the week. While confidence in
this scenario is low, rain chances have now increased into the
30-50% range Thursday through Saturday, especially across the
eastern Ozarks. Confidence is high however that temperatures
will remain below average this week with highs likely remaining
in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
VFR ceilings for the next few hours before rain returns early
Monday morning. Rain may be heavy at times, reducing
visibilities and dropping ceilings into MVFR. Showers and
thunderstorms will prevail for most of the day on Monday. Winds
will remain northerly through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Soria