Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/17/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
532 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and storms are expected today and tomorrow
as a system moves through the region.
- Some storms may be capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds and heavy rainfall. Therefore there is a chance for
localized flooding.
- Temperatures dip to near normal today in response to clouds
and precipitation. A cold front moving through the region
tomorrow is expected to bring cooler than normal readings for
the latter part of the week.
- Expect a break in the action Wednesday and Thursday before
another system impacts the region Friday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Satellite imagery shows the low already shifting east into the Great
Basin with the models running about six hours behind. THe high res
models are doing a little better, but are also lagging a bit. This
could have impacts on the timing of the front tomorrow, so we`ll
want to see how this tracks on the 00Z model runs. Currently
scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving up from Arizona into
southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado with a deep band of
moisture and pwats ranging 0.7 to about an inch. Models put the nose
of the jet still to the west, but it will move in over eastern Utah
and Western Colorado through the afternoon and evening to support
continued overnight convection. Imagery also shows the moist band
extending to the west to support convection through eastern Utah.
Included some HRRR and NAM in the PoPs to increase probs in these
areas. A mid-level shortwave ascends out of the trough across the
eastern half of the region through the late evening and overnight to
keep nocturnal showers and isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain going. These could
stratify out across as any available energy gets expended, but with
the dynamics of the shortwave will likely keep some convection going
especially over the western areas of the CWA.
Models start lifting the low out of the Great Basin overnight with
it moving into Western Wyoming by Tuesday afternoon. The cold front
is progged to transit the region between about 15Z and 21Z spawning
a wave of strong, possibly severe thunderstorms ahead of it. The
question is the timing of the front as an earlier passage as
discussed above would mean storms wouldn`t have a chance to draw on
the diurnal heating and would likely tame the resulting storms; a
later passage would align the frontal dynamics with max diurnal
heating leading to more widespread severe thunderstorms sweeping
west to east across the region through the afternoon.
The cold front moves through quickly with gusty westerly winds
behind it bringing a dry airmass into the region to shut down
convection and clear out the skies by Tuesday evening. Look for
about a five degree drop in temperatures behind the cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Models appeared to be in excellent agreement Thursday and Thursday
night but begin to diverge on Friday and by Sunday consensus was on
the low end of fair. The pattern on Wednesday features a closed mid-
level low over eastern Montana with another closed low spinning just
off the coast of San Francisco. Between these systems relatively dry
southwest flow moves over the forecast area with PWAT values near
0.3" for all but a small portion of the eastern Uinta Mountains
where values were near 0.5" according ensemble means. As a result,
skies will be partly cloudy/mostly cloudy over the Uintas Wednesday
with a slight chance for afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Warm air
advection and sunshine will help temperatures rise toward normal
late Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday models move the Pacific low
southeastward, though the ECMWF keeps it centered closer to the
coast just west of Bakersfield. The Canadian and GFS shift it
farther east along the border of Nevada northwest of Las Vegas.
Despite these differences, the forecast looks similar to Wednesday
with slight chances redeveloping for the eastern Uintas Thursday
afternoon while dry weather continues elsewhere. Temperatures climb
to near normal Wednesday and may rise a degree or two above the norm
on Thursday.
As noted previously, models fall further out of sync Friday, but
regardless, the region will see a modest increase in moisture with
PWATs climbing to near 0.5" for much of the area by midday. This
should be sufficient to generate low end scattered afternoon/evening
storms over higher terrain. The main threats will be gusty outflow
winds and lightning as the subcloud was indicated to be dry.
Nocturnal storms are likely Friday night as the low moves across
northern Arizona providing dynamic lift, though timing does vary
between models, so don`t want to get too hung up on positioning of
best chances. Looking at NBM compared to operational runs, it does
appear the blends are chasing the latest guidance a bit and won`t be
surprised to see the PoP field shift toward the southern zones in
later runs. By Saturday, positioning of the low is clearly up for
debate, though Canadian and GFS solutions were more similar. The
Canadian moves the closed low to the northeast Colorado Plains while
the GFS fills the low, though trough positioning was similar. In
contrast, the ECMWF carries the closed low over southwest Colorado
Monday afternoon. So again, the forecast is fairly generalized with
showers favoring the north in the NBM and while the ECMWF favored
the south and the Canadian and GFS were fairly equally distributed
along the Continental Divide. With the EC solution, showers may
linger overnight and persist into Sunday across the north as the low
center hurdles the Divide and moves to northeast Colorado then to
the northern High Plains on Sunday. The other models push the low
farther east over the central Plains and suggest precipitation
chances end ahead of midnight Saturday with potentially enough
lingering moisture for a few storms along the Continental Divide
Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures dip with increased clouds and showers and the trough
passage this weekend, running 3 to 5 degrees under seasonal norms
with the coolest temperatures arriving Saturday. Meanwhile,
overnight lows are expected to run within a few degrees of normal
throughout the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
evening and into the overnight. Main impacts from storms will be
gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain reducing visibility,
frequent lightning, and maybe some small hail. As the night
continues, the threat will transition more toward heavier rain
without the convective component. Additionally, outside of
storms, strong southerly to southwesterly winds will continue
through the TAF period, with gusts in excess of 35 knots
possible. VFR conditions will prevail, but occasional drops to
MVFR/IFR will be possible through the period thanks to lowering
ceilings and reduced visibility.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Performed a brief gridded update this evening to match current
radar trends. Pulled in the recent HRRR runs with NBM PPI01 for
PoPs, which initializes the ongoing showers/storms across coastal
portions of the area well. This activity will persist through
around 01-03Z before we dry out overnight. Few waterspouts will
remain possible in some storms that line up along confluence
axis/boundaries but the threat will continue to lower after
sunset. Quiet overnight other than some patchy fog for some areas
(primarily southern MS/Florida Parishes) but will see another
round of scattered showers/storms again primarily during the
afternoon on Tuesday. Same threats including waterspouts/tropical
funnels can be expected given little change in the state of the
troposphere, with coverage generally in the 30-40% range. KLG
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
A broad upper level low pressure system centered over the Deep
South will continue to influence the forecast on Tuesday. This
upper level feature will provide just enough forcing to tap into
the seasonal PWATS of around 1.8 inches and moderate instability
to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during peak
heating hours. The convective activity will quickly wane after
sunset tomorrow, and expect to see dry conditions in place by the
late evening hours. By Wednesday, increasing negative vorticity
advection and subsidence will push PWATS significantly lower and
reduce the convective risk to 20 percent or less. Even that 20
percent will be a push given the strength of the ridge axis
building in from the west. Temperatures will be near to slightly
warmer than average each day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Lows will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s each night beneath
largely clear skies and light winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Strong deep layer ridging will dominate the region throughout the
entirety of the long term period. This deep layer subsidence will
keep skies mostly clear and keep any rain chances at bay.
Temperatures will see a larger diurnal range as dewpoints fall
into the mid to upper 60s. Overall, the model spread is small in
the long term period, so have opted to stick with deterministic
values for temperatures. This results in highs in the upper 80s
and lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s each day.
The high temperatures are a few degrees above average, but extreme
heat will not be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Main focus this evening will be ongoing SHRA/TS across the
southshore that will continue to dissipate after 01-03Z. Timed
approximate impacts to a few terminals, including brief gusty
winds upwards of 15-20kts at the surface and periodic lower flight
categories due to lower CIGs/VIS in any heavy rain. Otherwise,
quiet tonight. Another round of SCT SHRA/TS again expected
tomorrow, primarily in the afternoon hours, with terminals timed
for VCTS coverage due to lack of confidence in exact timing. Same
impacts including periodic reduced flight categories can be
expected in heavier rain, but outside of any activity will be VFR
prevailing. KLG
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
A broad area of high pressure will become more firmly established
across the coastal waters through the duration of the week and
into the weekend. The end result will be very light gradient flow
of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet through the entire
forecast period. Overall, maritime activity will not be impacted
by any significant weather over the next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 85 68 87 / 10 40 10 10
BTR 73 87 72 88 / 20 40 10 20
ASD 70 85 70 87 / 20 40 20 20
MSY 73 85 74 86 / 30 40 20 20
GPT 71 83 72 85 / 20 30 20 10
PQL 71 84 71 86 / 30 40 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...PG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
A line of scattered showers and isolated lightning storms that
developed along boundary collisions near the stalled frontal
boundary extends from Polk County into Osceola, Brevard, and
northern Indian River Counties. While individual cells are
generally moving to the east-southeast at 15-20 mph, the line
itself is mostly stationary, and there is a small chance for
storms or heavy showers to get hung up on a boundary and produce
locally high rainfall amounts. Occasional to frequent cloud to
ground lightning and gusts to 40 mph will also be possible. In
addition, with modest bulk shear and strong surface convergence
along outflow boundaries, a funnel cloud or even a waterspout
cannot be ruled out. HRRR seems to be handling this activity the
best, albeit 2-4 hours to slow, so generally used that guidance
with temporal correction to make some adjustments to forecast
PoPs. Expect this activity to push offshore over the next few
hours, with maybe a very slight shift to the south.
Otherwise, no significant changes to a mostly quiet overnight
forecast. Only other weather concern continues to be patchy fog
development across the interior in the early morning hours. Winds
light northeasterly to easterly, becoming variable/calm at times,
under mostly cloud skies, with overnight lows in the L-M70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Mainly VFR conditions through the evening and first half of the
night. A line of TSRA/SHRA has developed on boundary collisions
from west to south of KMLB, which could propagate southeastward
towards KVRB-KSUA the next several hours, so added VCTS generously
through 07Z-08Z at these terminals. Dry conditions at the
northern terminals, but the frontal boundary stalled across CFL
could help produce more MVFR- IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS impacts,
though only KLEE has chances high enough for reductions in the
TAFs. Any stratus or fog that develops should clear by 14Z-15Z,
with a typical diurnal seabreeze pattern and near normal afternoon
SHRA/TSRA chances.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue over the
coastal waters from elevated swells from PTC8. Will allow the
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) over the nearshore waters, north of
Sebastian Inlet to drop off early at 4 PM, as seas at buoys
41009/41070 have remained around 6 feet. However, lingering seas
up to 7-8 feet are still forecast offshore, so will maintain SCA
headlines through late tonight for the 20-60nm offshore zones.
Nearshore, will keep exercise caution headlines for seas up to 6
feet. Winds will be relatively light and somewhat variable with
weak frontal boundary across the area, and speeds will generally
range around 5-10 knots.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible
over the waters.
Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas subside
Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Variable
winds continue into late week while remaining 10 kts or less.
Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 89 73 90 / 20 40 20 40
MCO 74 91 73 92 / 20 50 10 50
MLB 76 90 74 90 / 40 50 40 50
VRB 76 90 73 91 / 30 50 40 50
LEE 73 90 73 91 / 20 40 10 40
SFB 73 90 73 91 / 20 50 10 50
ORL 75 91 74 92 / 20 50 10 50
FPR 76 90 73 90 / 30 50 40 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
858 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1203 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Rain showers will taper off from north to south through this evening
with temperatures remaining below seasonal averages through late
week. Another system enters the picture Wednesday with additional
rain chances, however rainfall amounts will be light. Warming into
the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Showers have tapered off this evening. We generally received a
few hundredths of an inch in the East Bay and most populated
valleys, around 1/10" in the Santa Cruz Mountains, and around 1/4"
in the Santa Lucia mountains. Skies have cleared in the North
Bay, and that could lead to some fog formation overnight. We would
have more confidence if the North Bay got any rain earlier, but
100% humidity, light winds, and clear skies could bring some
shallow fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1203 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Isolated rain showers continue over the region early this afternoon
and are expected to diminish in coverage while shifting southward
through this evening. Tonight, coastal drizzle will be possible as
moist conditions persist and troughing lingers over the region.
Temperatures overnight will be in the upper 40`s (in the coldest
interior spots) to mid 50`s for much of the region.
Tomorrow, temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees below average.
Outside coastal drizzle in the morning, tomorrow will be dry with
partial clearing of sky conditions through the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024
The next system set to come through Wednesday looks to be
very similar, but with slightly less of a wind threat. Still
looking at breezy winds in the same areas early Wednesday morning,
but more on the order of 25-35 mph as opposed to the 45-50 mph we
saw over the last 24 hours. A bit of a better chance for thunder
with the Wednesday system as well. Still a low chance (~15%), but
with a bit more cooling aloft and more lower level moisture, there
is more widespread instability late Tuesday night going into
Wednesday morning. Rain amounts still look to be on the lower
side, if any, similar to today. Beyond Wednesday there really
isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is on tap
going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to around
seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is some
discrepancy in ensemble guidance regarding the strength of a
possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024
It`s VFR-MVFR at the terminals with the greatest areal low cloud
coverage over the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon.
Where it is a mainly clear to clear start this evening and tonight,
radiative cooling will likely result in patches of valley fog
/VLIFR-IFR/ for late tonight and Tuesday morning. Otherwise where
cloud cover persists with VFR-MVFR, these conditions are likely to
prevail tonight.
The forecast gets more challenging Tuesday morning because the
18z NAM is forecasting a lower level cool front arriving along the
coast from the SF Peninsula to Monterey County coastline. The
front and cooler air intrusion are bounded below by the sea surface
and land and above by a thermal ridge (capping stability). The
HREF output shows a higher probability of IFR becoming focused in
this area along the coast Tuesday. Caveat, it may take a while for
ceilings and surface visibilities to improve Tuesday, lower level
cooling resulting in patchy light coastal drizzle.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR, however the HREF is showing an
increasing probability of IFR 08z-18z Tuesday and the RAP model
shows IFR 09z through 16z Tuesday. Part of this may be due to
nocturnal radiative cooling including the arrival of the above
described lower level cool front Tuesday morning; may need to
amend the 00z TAF for IFR. Onshore wind near 15 knots decreasing
tonight to 5 to 10 knots then increasing to 15 to 20 knots Tuesday
afternoon and early evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR, similar to vicinity SFO the
HREF is showing an increasing probability of IFR beginning
(earlier) 06z Tuesday (this evening) through approx 15z Tuesday
when conditions may begin to improve over the southern Monterey
Bay Area due to increasing lower level cool air advection. Caveat,
downward low cloud ceiling development due to cool air advection,
gentle upsloping along the terrain and lowering visibilities in
either mist or drizzle may still take place during the mid morning
hours. It may take until late morning to early afternoon for
conditions to improve to MVFR-VFR. HREF indicates post 00z TAF
early return of low clouds along the Monterey Bay shoreline and
the Salinas Valley.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 852 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Northwest winds continue to gradually decrease overnight in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front. Small craft warnings remain in
effect in the NW waters mainly for wind gusts more than 45 NM from
the coast. Rough seas are gradually abating in the NW waters and
will continue through the next 24 hours. There is a bit of a
break on Tuesday before a second cold front brings the return of
strong NW winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal waters.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Flynn
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
900 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure centered just inland along the South
Carolina coast will drift through the Carolinas tonight into Tuesday
morning. This system will linger and gradually dissipate across the
western Carolinas through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 PM Monday...
A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of central NC through 8 AM
Tuesday.
The Wind Advisory has been cancelled for the northern tier of
counties, but remains in effect for those primarily along the NC/SC
border where gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible the next several
hours.
Latest sfc analysis depicted the center of the low near Florence, SC
this evening. Thus far, rain rates have been more so "moderate" than
"heavy" in general. There has been a few heavier cells (one such
cluster moving through the Triangle now) throughout the day, but
overall, the heaviest rain has mostly remained closer to the coast.
A continuous "feeder" band of deeper moisture and heavier cells
continues to move slowly north along the Crystal Coast and southern
OBX. Simultaneously, a deformation zone of sorts has developed west
of our area over the CHarlotte metro area. Latest high-res guidance
suggests that these two features will likely remain outside of
central NC through the overnight period. Consequently, the highest
remaining QPF through tonight should largely stay east and west of
our area. Nonetheless, given the anomalous moisture and continuation
of moderate rainfall, will maintain the Flood Watch for all of
central NC at this forecast update.
Thus far, rotating cells have largely remained near or just inland
of the coast today. As the aforementioned feeder band pivots north
over the Inner and Outer Banks, we`ll continue to have a non-zero
chance of an isolated shallow tornado for those in the far eastern
Coastal Plain. With time, however, the low should occlude (already
signs that this is beginning as of 01Z), and our area should be
mostly removed from the warm, more unstable air. Thus, the low-
probability tornado threat should diminish with time overnight. The
latest HRRR runs paint this scenario, shunting all low-level
helicity swaths to our east across the inner/outer banks.
Rain chances will slowly decrease from south to north through day
break. As the low continues to weaken over land, the sfc gustiness
should diminish some through daybreak Tuesday morning as well.
Otherwise, overnight lows in the lower 60s (west) to around 70
(east).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 212 PM Monday...
The remnant surface low is projected to be somewhere over north-
central to northwest SC at the start of the period. The system will
continue to track west-northwestward during the day/night, occluding
and filling, weakening as it does so. While the mid-level dry slot
is forecast to lift through during the morning and afternoon from
south to north, continued moisture transport from 925-850 mb will
remain in place, especially along and north of US-64 and into the
northwest Piedmont. As such, highest shower chances during the day
will be in these areas, with lower chances across the southern
Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. Wind gusts will be
highest in the morning, between 20 and 30 mph and some occasional
gusts to 35 mph, along and north of US-64 and over the Triad. Gusts
should then start to weaken by the afternoon and evening as the low
occludes and the pressure gradient relaxes. Additional rainfall
amounts one to three quarters of an inch are possible along/north of
US-64, with a tenth of an inch or less across our southern counties.
Some isolated spots of the Triangle to north of US-64 could be
higher per the 12z HRRR/HREF with any training storms, which is
consistent with WPC`s marginal excessive rainfall in this area.
As for severe potential, SPC currently is not highlighting any area
of concern. There does remain, however, a chance of some low-topped
supercells capable of brief tornadoes mainly east of I-95 and north
of US-64, roughly from a line east of Raleigh to Rocky Mount to
Roanoke Rapids. This corridor appears most favored for instability
coupled to stronger low-level shear. It would appear the threat
would be from the morning hours into midday. Thereafter, the low-
level wind field lessens, thereby reducing the severe threat.
Highs Tue should be in the low 70s over the far NW, including the
Triad, to the upper 70s to near 80 along/east of US-1. Rain chances
should lessen by evening/overnight as the low weakens and activity
shifts into VA into far western NC, with lows in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 212 PM Monday...
The surface and mid/upper low from Mon is forecast to continue to
weaken as it slowly migrates from far western NC Wed into the Mid-
Atlantic Thu and Fri from a closed low to a general open trough.
While ensemble guidance is not in complete agreement, it appears
troughing will remain in place through the weekend over the Mid-
Atlantic and NC and perhaps into early next week as a blocking
pattern remains in place. At the surface, the surface low in western
NC will weaken Wed into Thu. Meanwhile, development of a persistent
offshore low off the Mid-Atlantic and Coastal NC will set up Fri
through probably early next week. This along with cooler high
pressure poised to extend into our area from the NE US and Canada
will promote a persistent NE flow late in the period into next week.
As for our sensible weather impacts, we are presently not
anticipating any high-impact weather during the extended. Showers
and isolated storms will remain in the forecast Wed and Thu (30-50
percent) as the upper-low remains over the area with afternoon
instability and a lingering surface trough/boundary. Once we get
into Fri, it would appear rain chances should lessen as the mid-
level trough axis slides east and weak high pressure builds in from
the north. Over the weekend, rain chances will persist, but are
currently projected to be favored along eastern sections of NC over
the Coastal Plain, mainly along and east of the I-95 corridor. This
region is most favored where onshore moist flow will reside and
closer to the trough and offshore low pressure. Ensemble solutions
start to deviate late this weekend and early next week, so kept PoP
chances on the low end (20-30 percent).
As for temperatures during the period, highs will start out near to
just slightly above normal Wed-Sat in the mid/upper 70s to low/mid
80s, then below normal highs Sun-Mon in the low to mid/upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 727 PM EDT Monday...
MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist the next several hours before
dropping to IFR/LIFR through the overnight period as moderate to
heavy rain moves north through central NC. The associated low
pressure system currently just inland of Myrtle Beach, SC will
slowly move west just south of the NC/SC border towards Charlotte
overnight. As such, a continuation of nnely gusty sfc winds (gusts
of 25 to 35 mph) can be expected (highest at KFAY) through early
Tuesday morning. Beyond ~14Z, gusts should diminish significantly
through the rest of the 24 hr TAF period. While sfc gusts are
expected to be remain strong, winds just above the sfc continue to
rip. The WRAL tall tower in Raleigh has continuously observed ~60
mph gusts at ~2000 ft AGL the last few hours. Thus, will continue
to mention LLWS at all TAF sites through ~09Z Tuesday morning.
IFR ceilings will persist through much of Tuesday as the low slowly
lifts northward (KFAY may mix out to VFR Tuesday afternoon).
Additional showers and a few storms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon primarily near KINT/KGSO and KRDU.
Outlook: Conditions will improve to VFR at FAY and perhaps RWI Tues
afternoon before a return to IFR/LIFR cigs Tues night into Wed.
Showers and isolated thunder will be possible at the northern TAF
sites Tues afternoon/evening. The threat for afternoon
showers/storms and early morning stratus will continue through
roughly Thurs night.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ073>077-083>086-
088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes/Swiggett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Luchetti/Swiggett
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
605 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
No significant changes from the previous forecast. The upper
level ridge will generally remain over the area through Tuesday,
keeping temperatures warmer than normal, and rain chances low. The
HRRR and NAMNest do show an isolated shower or two this
evening and tomorrow afternoon, but will keep the forecast dry as
the coverage is expected to be so sparse that it doesn`t need
mentioning. Otherwise, look for lows tonight in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, and highs on Tuesday generally in the mid 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
The large scale pattern over the CONUS through the next several
days will be characterized by a broad upper level trough over the
western U.S. and an upper level low over the eastern U.S. Upper
level ridging will be in place over the southern Plains keeping
our area generally dry with warmer than normal temperatures
through the remainder of the work week. A weak shortwave will pass
overhead on Wednesday, but it appears showers and thunderstorms
will remain north of our area. Otherwise, highs will be in the
mid 90s with some upper 90s likely on Thursday and Friday.
Going into the weekend, the western U.S. upper low will begin to
eject eastward across the Rockies. A shortwave trough rounding the
base of the low will translate eastward into the Plains on
Saturday and Sunday. The exact evolution of this feature will
determine rain chances as well as a possible cold front working
its way into the region. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty this far out, but will show cooler temperatures by
Sunday and Monday along with a slight chance of PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. East/southeasterly
winds will become light and variable for most sites overnight. Winds
are then expected to pick up a bit by mid-late morning out of the
southeast but should generally stay at or below 10 kts sustained
(though some gusts in the 15-17 kt range may be possible for KSJT
tomorrow afternoon). Some patchy MVFR stratus may move into KSOA
around sunrise tomorrow so have included a TEMPO group for now as
confidence is not quite high enough in making it a prevailing
group yet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 70 94 72 95 / 10 0 0 0
San Angelo 69 96 72 95 / 10 0 0 0
Junction 68 94 70 93 / 10 0 0 0
Brownwood 68 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 71 94 73 95 / 10 0 0 0
Ozona 68 92 71 92 / 10 0 0 0
Brady 69 93 70 93 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...50