Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/13/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1053 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue across central North
Dakota overnight, but severe weather is no longer expected.
- Mostly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected this
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Quick update for the cancellation of the Wind Advisory. The wind
forecast for the rest of the night was lowered on account of
observed trends, but it will still be breezy across central and
eastern parts of the state.
UPDATE
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Quick update for cancellation of the entire Severe Thunderstorm
Watch. Showers and thunderstorms with occasional gusty winds
will continue to slowly drift eastward across central North
Dakota through the night.
UPDATE
Issued at 914 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Headline changes for this update include: 1) the Red Flag
Warning was allowed to expire on time, 2) Mountrail, Dunn,
Stark, Hettinger, and Adams Counties were removed from the Wind
Advisory as the inverted surface trough has now pushed the
strong southeast winds east of those areas, and 3) The Severe
Thunderstorm Watch was cancelled for Golden Valley, Billings,
Slope, and Bowman Counties.
The risk for severe weather has greatly diminished. Despite the
continued presence of very strong shear, and sufficient MUCAPE
around 1000 J/kg, it appears that the storm inflow layer is not
ingesting this degree of buoyancy. As of 9 PM, the strongest
remaining storms had almost completely shifted east of the
watch, and have only been producing wind gusts to around 40 mph.
While a majority of the watch does remain in effect, the
probability of severe storms is now very low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
A broad upper level trough draped over the western CONUS will the
the main driver of the weather pattern across the northern Plains
for the next several days. Mid to upper level flow will become
nearly meridional through the rest of the day as the trough axis
nudges closer and a surface low continues to organize over eastern
Montana. A west to east surface warm front has lifted north across
the state, now parked over the southern Canadian Prairies, and is
responsible for some mid to high clouds currently located over the
central and northwest. A cold front extends south from the low
across eastern Montana and this boundary will be a focus for shower
and thunderstorm development today and tonight as it slowly moves
east into the Dakotas. In fact, as of early this afternoon we are
already starting to see some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in and around this boundary near the Montana/North
Dakota border. Additionally, we are starting to see thunderstorm
development over the higher terrain across portions of southeast
Montana and northeast Wyoming (in the vicinity of the Bighorns).
While we could see a few stronger storms along the cold front, this
activity behind the front may end up being the larger severe threat
late this afternoon and into the evening.
The storms currently over the higher terrain to our west will likely
be elevated in nature through most of the afternoon, but could
become a bit more surface based as they approach our western border
late this afternoon or early evening. As this activity moves in, we
will generally see a low CAPE (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg), high shear
(deep layer shear up to 55 knots) environment across the far west.
The approaching trough will also cool mid-level temperatures,
leading to steep lapse rates in the low to mid levels. Given
the parameter space, a couple of supercells or fast moving
bowing structures will likely develop across eastern Montana and
move into western North Dakota in the 22z to 00z time frame.
Given the forecast shear, dry lower levels (inverted V
soundings), and strong flow aloft, damaging winds appear to be
the greatest threat with the strongest storms, potentially up to
75 mph. That being said, CAMs remain insistent that some of
these storms could be strongly rotating so hail up to the size
of ping pong balls will also be possible. If instability were
forecast to be a bit stronger, larger hail would be a greater
concern. Additionally, strong low level shear could suggest at
least a low chance of a tornado across the far west, but this
threat will be limited by the weaker instability and relatively
dry lower levels. Instability will decrease with eastern extent
so the severe weather threat will likely decrease around or
after 04z or 05z. Showers and storms will continue to move east
across the state overnight, but in a decaying phase.
Non-thunderstorm winds continue to increase across western and
central North Dakota this afternoon so the Wind Advisory still looks
to be in good shape through the evening. We are still expecting
sustained values up to 35 mph and gusts to 50 mph. On a similar
note, the Red Flag Warning will also remain unchanged as
afternoon humidity continues to drop across the southwest and
portions of the south central. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have nudged into the far west so this factor
(along with increasing cloud cover) could limit the fire weather
concerns over a few locations but there should be enough strong
wind/low humidity overlap for critical fire weather conditions
across much of the warning area. It is also a bit uncertain how
much rain is actually making it to the surface across the
southwest given the dry lower levels and high cloud bases.
For Friday, showers and storms should be ongoing in the morning,
likely east of the Highway 83 corridor. We could see some
strengthening in the late morning or afternoon hours across the
James River Valley. The RAP is currently forecasting elevated
instability in the 500 to 1000 J/kg here with deep layer shear
around 40 to 45 knots. So, while widespread severe weather is not
expected Friday afternoon, a stronger storm is not out of the
question before they move off into the Grand Forks forecast area.
Friday will also be cooler behind the front with highs expected to
range from the lower 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast.
We dry out overnight Friday and Saturday, but low precipitation
chances return Saturday night across portions of the central and
east as we remain in mean southwest flow aloft. For most of the day
on Saturday, we will see plenty of sunshine and generally light
winds out of the south. Highs will be a bit warmer than on Friday,
ranging from the mid to upper 70s north, to the low to mid 80s
south. More weak waves will move through Sunday night and Monday
night, while most ensemble systems have a stronger wave moving
through in the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame. While it is
still a ways out, CSU Machine Learning guidance is suggesting low
chances for severe weather across the region in the Monday through
Wednesday time frame.
Highs will be back into the 80s state-wide on Sunday and into the
beginning of the work week with a potential cool down mid to late
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly drift
eastward across central North Dakota overnight through much of
the day Friday. Erratic wind gusts and brief MVFR/IFR visibility
reductions are possible with any storm. Outside of
thunderstorms, strong southeast winds will gradually weaken
through the night. Friday will not be as windy, but southwest
winds could gust to 30-35 kts in northwest North Dakota in the
afternoon. Low level wind shear will be a concern for a few
hours from KMOT to KBIS late this evening, and for a much
longer period of time at KJMS and surrounding areas overnight
into Friday morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
654 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR TORNADOES...
Issued at 451 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of Central Alabama
through 10 pm. This watch is relatively spatial and temporally
restricted to areas near I-65, both on the west and east sides
from Birmingham to Montgomery. The latest RUC analysis has SBCAPE
values 500-1500 and MLCAPE just above 500 near a warm front that
is slowly moving northward. Bulk Shear is 40kts + while Effective
SRH is 200-400. These parameters would support low topped
supercells and possible brief tornadoes. The overall message has
really not changed for the area, but some instability is being
realized. The window of opportunity regarding the instability is
rather small, maybe only until 10 pm or so. The additional threats
of gradient winds and flash flooding also remain overnight. Even
though Francine continues weakening, the pressure gradient has
increased at the surface and just above, creating wind gusts to 45
mph or so across the area. The Wind Advisory has been expanded
for all of Central Alabama. Trees and power lines have been blown
down creating road blockages, home damage, and auto damage. Some
power outages have also occurred. A tropical airmass as spread
over the entire area. The heavier convection is capable of 6 to 8
inch rain rates, otherwise, torrential rain. If training of these
heavier rain areas occurs, then some flash flooding remains
possible. Please remain vigilant as we head into the overnight
hours and remain aware of these threats.
75
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
The center of TD Francine is moving northward into northern
Mississippi. The warm front has struggled to move inland amidst
bands of rain which have been ongoing across South and Central
Alabama all morning. Per mid-level water vapor imagery, dry air is
wrapping around the southern side of Francine and expanding over
Central Alabama. This has resulted in a decrease in rainfall and
even some breaks in the cloud cover over southwest Alabama which is
expected to allow for weak surface heating and a gradual northward
progression of the warm front. We`re in somewhat of a transition
from widespread stratiform rainfall to a more focused banding of
rainfall which we expect will show convective characteristics
through the afternoon should 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE be realized.
The highest wind shear is gradually shifting northward, but still,
200-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH looks to overlap with the axis of
instability to support the conditional threat of a few tornadoes.
This zone looks to be maximized along the I-65 corridor from
Montgomery to Birmingham late this afternoon into the evening,
associated primarily with a northeastward moving band of rainfall
which is currently oriented along the warm front from Lamar County
into Dallas County.
12Z guidance continues to point towards an increasing flooding risk
as the aforementioned rain band poses not only a tornado risk,
but also a risk of training, particularly as it begins to slow
down and stall over the I-65 corridor this evening. Francine will
lose progression this evening when it is expected to situate over
the Mid- South, unable to eject northward due to ridging over the
East Coast. This same ridge continues to produce an easterly wedge
at the surface which will interact with Francine to produce a
focused area of south to northward moving rainfall over northern
portions of the area, which includes the Birmingham metro. This
convergence zone is expected to last into tomorrow in which waves
of heavy rainfall could lead to accumulations of generally 4 to 7
inches with locally higher amounts up to 9 inches. Should these
rainfall totals be realized, flash flooding would be an obvious
concern despite antecedent drought conditions, and instances of
considerable flash flooding are not out of the question. WPC has
defined a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall over these areas
through tomorrow.
Area surface observations continue to report wind gusts ranging from
25 to 35kts, and we`ve received numerous reports of downed trees and
associated power outages. The Wind Advisory will remain in effect
through midnight tonight, but some of our southern counties may be
able to be removed early as Francine shifts further northward.
With the remnant low of Francine stuck over Arkansas tomorrow, high
rain chances are progged to persist across generally the
northeastern half of the area. Wind dynamics will continue to
decrease, but the unstable, tropical low-level airmass will linger
over the area, and thunderstorms during the afternoon will pose a
risk, although low, for a few 60 mph straight-line wind gusts and/or
a brief tornado for locations generally east of a line from Hamilton
to Selma. This is in addition to the persisting flood risk.
86/Martin
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
As the circulation associated with the remnants of Francine
continues to meander through Sunday, there appears to be an
increasing potential for slow-moving bands of training convection
Friday night and Saturday. This will most likely require an
extension of the Flood Watch through Saturday, particularly across
the northern half of our forecast area. On Sunday, a cool air wedge
will move westward and continue interacting with the tropical warm
sector. Near this intersection, a convective band may develop once
again, but the potential for additional flooding remains rather
uncertain at this time.
As the mid-level circulation of post-tropical Francine moves toward
the Gulf Coast, and cyclogenesis tries to take place along the South
Carolina coast, drier air should wrap around from the northeast.
Accordingly, rain chances are expected to trend downward Monday
through Wednesday.
87/Grantham
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
Will continue with elevated winds thanks to Francine. Gusty E-ESE
winds will be present tonight into Friday. Overall magnitude will
decrease through the forecast period as what`s left of Francine
weakens and surface pressure gradients begin to slowly relax.
Widespread showers will off/on continue for most as bands move
across C AL. At times there will be some thunder embedded in the
showers. Cigs will start off as MVFR and over the next few hours
go down to IFR. Cigs should go back to MVFR by midday Friday.
NOTE: NIL TAF continues for KANB until further notice due to large
comms issue and missing obs.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread soaking rains with embedded thunderstorms and flooding
potential are forecast across the area today. 20-foot winds will
be highest today, east-southeasterly as high as 15-20 mph
sustained with gusts upwards of 40 mph.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 66 77 66 76 / 80 80 90 80
Anniston 69 78 68 77 / 70 80 90 80
Birmingham 69 79 68 78 / 90 70 80 70
Tuscaloosa 69 79 67 80 / 60 60 50 50
Calera 70 80 68 79 / 90 70 80 60
Auburn 70 79 69 80 / 60 80 90 60
Montgomery 71 84 69 84 / 70 60 70 40
Troy 70 83 68 83 / 60 70 60 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...75/86/Martin
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1017 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the northeast and eastern Great Lakes
through at least the start of next week. This will result in a long
stretch of dry and very warm weather, with mid-summer like
temperatures lasting through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies across the
region early this evening, with just a few small patches of clouds
from the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Mainly
clear skies will continue overnight, with some river valley fog once
again across the Southern Tier, and some patchy fog east of Lake
Ontario.
High pressure and a developing Rex Block will result in dry
conditions and mainly clear skies through Friday and beyond.
Wildfire smoke well aloft will continue through Friday, as noted by
satellite trends and HRRR Smoke model guidance. This will produce a
haze to the sky, but little to no smoke is expected to make it to
ground level. Winds will remain generally light across the area,
with local lake breeze circulations developing again Friday
afternoon.
Lows tonight will drop back into the upper 50s to lower 60s in most
areas, with some low 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and
North Country. Highs Friday will continue to run close to 10 degrees
above average, with highs in the low to mid 80s for lower elevations
and upper 70s high terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
During this period the core of stout upper level ridging will drift
from the Upper Great Lakes to New York State...while its center of
its associated surface ridge settles from Quebec to a position just
off the New England coastline. All this will keep the remains of TD
Francine confined to the Deep South...where these will slowly
meander in place through the weekend. As a result we can expect our
period of warm dry summerlike weather to continue right through the
weekend...with nightly lows mostly in the 50s and daily highs
ranging from the upper 70s across the higher terrain to the lower-
mid 80s across the lower elevations...though a northeasterly low
level flow will help to keep areas along the south shore of Lake
Ontario cooler both days. While there will also be a general dearth
of cloud cover...some wildfire smoke well aloft may lend a hazy look
to the sky at times.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As we move into next week...the stout upper level ridge will
gradually drift southeastward and reorient itself so that its core
will extend from New England southeastward into the western
Atlantic...while also becoming largely co-located with the spine of
its attendant surface ridge. While this transition will take place
slowly enough to allow fair dry weather to persist across our region
through Monday night or even Tuesday...by midweek this should allow
a southeasterly flow of increasing Atlantic-based moisture into our
region...with this possibly coming in association with a surface low
(which could be potentially subtropical or tropical in nature)
pushing inland across the Carolinas. While there is still plenty of
uncertainty on when this moisture might make it into our region...
there is enough of a general signal in the guidance to warrant at
least some clouds and slight chance of showers spreading across
areas south of Lake Ontario in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.
Otherwise warmer than normal temperatures will continue...though
daily highs will tend to pull back to the mid-upper 70s and nightly
lows will climb into the mid 50s-lower 60s owing to the increase in
Atlantic moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to bring mainly clear skies and light
winds through Friday and beyond. Some localized river valley fog
will develop across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario
overnight through Friday morning with local IFR. This has not
impacted the hilltop KJHW airfield the past few nights, so went with
that trend for tonight as well. Otherwise, VFR will continue to
prevail elsewhere.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. Patchy fog with local IFR each
late night and morning, mainly across the river valleys of the
Southern Tier.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure dominating the region will result in mainly light
winds and negligible wave action on the Lakes right through the
upcoming weekend. The light winds and strong differential heating
will allow lake breezes to form most days, with a local onshore flow
developing each afternoon.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/SW
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/SW
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
747 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.UPDATE...
Cooler conditions have spread over our area with rising
humidities. Therefore, the Red flag Warning was allowed to expire
at 7 pm.
The threat of severe storms has also decreased as the best energy
and lift has gone north of our area and the cooler air has reduced
lapse rates. Look for light scattered showers and isolated weak
thunderstorms to linger this evening as trough moves over the
region. BT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Friday night...
First cold front was basically through the forecast area at 20Z. A
secondary front was moving through the western zones and will pass
out of the area late tonight. Lines of showers and thunderstorms
were rotating N through the area per radar imagery, with the
strongest storms moving N out of Sheridan County. An upper low
could be seen rotating over W MT on water vapor imagery, while a
strong jet rounding the base of the low was bringing upper
divergence to the eastern part of the area. Areas of frontogenesis
were occurring with the 700 mb cold front and PWAT`s of 0.8 to 1
inch were helping to fuel the storms. In the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch area, Bulk Effective shear was 40-60 kt, with CAPES of
500-1000 J/kg. The CAMS models in the HREF all showed 1-2 long
updraft helicity tracks over Sheridan County and SE MT with
slightly different locations. Latest HRRR came in with 3 helicity
tracks. Hodographs on the mesoanalysis SPC page were a combination
of some curvature with straight line portions...with effective
helicity values of 100-200 m2/s2. Environment supports supercells
so will continue to monitor situation closely into the evening.
High chances for precipitation were over the area through 00Z
tonight, then convection will become more scattered. Highest PoPs
will be over and near the western mountains this evening. Chances
for showers and possible thunderstorms will linger over the area
from Rosebud County W overnight. Upper low was forecast to be N of
the Canadian border by Friday morning. Some moisture will linger
over the far N and W zones for low chances of showers through the
day. Highs will reach the 60s and 70s. Wind gusts in the 30s will
be common across the region due to mixing down of stronger winds
aloft. RH`s will be high enough to keep fire weather concerns at
bay somewhat. Friday night will be dry under westerly flow.
Red Flag Warning remains in effect, with the eastern portion
closer to criteria than the western portion. However, gusty winds
and convection support keeping the Warning in place.
Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Beartooth Pass through
18Z Fri. with snow levels from 8500-9000` and 5 inches of snow
expected. Arthur
Saturday through Thursday...
High pressure will build back over the region for the weekend
bringing warmer and drier conditions. High temperatures will warm
from the 70s to near 80 degrees for Saturday, back into the 80s
for most places on Sunday. Precipitation chances move back into
western areas starting Sunday night, as an upper low is progged to
move into the Great Basin. Ensembles eventually have the area of
low pressure lifting into the Northern Rockies for Tuesday,
bringing widespread precipitation chances (40-80%) through at
least the middle of the week, along with cooler temperatures.
Uncertainty increase for Thursday and beyond with ensembles
progging either higher heights building into the region, or
another upper low.
High temperatures in the 80s on Monday, are forecast to lower into
the 60s and 70s Tuesday through Thursday. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
The severe threat has come to an end at all terminals. Scattered
showers and weak thunderstorms will continue this evening before
tapering off to showers overnight over the west (mainly in the
vicinity of KLVM). Expect the isolated to scattered showers to
clear through the morning hours Friday. With the precipitation,
occasional mountain obscurations will occur. Outside of
precipitation, winds will increase along the western foothills
tonight with 20 to 30 kt gusts common. These winds will continue
through Friday around and north of KLVM, KBIL, and KMLS. Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/072 048/080 050/085 054/082 054/073 050/071 048/069
42/W 00/B 00/U 11/B 47/T 62/W 23/W
LVM 044/069 042/077 045/081 046/078 046/064 041/065 040/066
42/W 00/B 01/B 24/T 78/T 74/W 34/W
HDN 048/074 045/082 047/088 051/085 053/077 048/074 046/071
31/B 00/B 00/U 01/B 35/W 62/W 22/W
MLS 051/072 048/080 050/087 059/088 058/079 052/071 049/070
21/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 24/W 62/W 21/B
4BQ 049/073 049/082 050/088 061/090 059/082 051/074 049/071
40/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 23/W 51/B 12/W
BHK 049/073 047/082 049/088 056/088 057/084 050/074 047/071
50/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 13/T 62/W 12/W
SHR 041/073 042/082 047/089 051/087 051/078 044/074 042/071
21/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 35/W 41/B 23/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1129 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
* The stretch of pleasant and dry weather will continue through
the upcoming weekend with above normal average temperatures
for mid September
* No impacts are expected from Francine, which will meander
slowly north across the Lower Miss and Tennessee Valleys over
the next few days.
* The chance of rain will increase by the middle of next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1026 MB sfc high pressure just east of New England will remain
nearly stationary overnight, with ridging extending SWWD across
PA. The only cloud cover to contend with the rest of the night
will be some very thin cirrus over Southern PA associated with
the remnants of TS Francine in the Lower Miss Valley.
Maintained persistence with regard to late night fog formation,
which is common this time of year in the river/stream valleys of
Northern PA whenever skies are clear and winds calm. Latest
model guidance also indicates low clouds/fog is likely around
dawn across areas south and east of KMDT.
Lows early Friday should range from the upper 40s in the cooler
valleys of the Laurel Highlands, to the upper 50s in parts of
the Lower Susq Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Ridging at the surface and aloft will provide the region with
a mainly sunny and warm Friday. 2m temp plumes indicate max
temps should be very similar to today, ranging from the mid 70s
over the Laurel Highlands, to the low 80s in the Susq Valley.
HRRR Smoke model indicates some high level smoke from Canadian
wildfires could make skies look a bit hazy/milky near the New
York border by Friday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Medium range guidance supports a high confidence of warm and dry
weather this weekend into early next week associated with
persistent upper ridging. Abundant sunshine and ensemble mean
850mb temps in the 14-15C range support highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. However, surface ridging and associated dry air
should result in decent radiational cooling each night, with min
temps near seasonal levels. Although the air will be dry, patchy
river valley fog remains likely each morning.
As the remnants of Francine over the Mississippi Valley run into
building high pressure over the Northeast US late Sat into Sun,
its forward motion will slow significantly. Maybe a little less
of a chc for fog in the S as we start to have high/cirrus blow
in from Francine. range guidance shows the associated midlevel
low opening into a trough extending from the Mississippi Valley
to the waters off the Southeast US. Subsequently, a developing
coastal low off the South Carolina coastline becomes the
dominant feature later Sunday into Monday. Although the coastal
low will start off non- tropical, the NHC gives it a 30 pct
chance of becoming tropical or subtropical early next week.
As the high over the Northeast US pushes east late Tue into
Wed, this will ultimately allow the coastal low to drift
westward and northward, with the potential for a period of
unsettled weather in central PA from Tue PM / Wednesday through
the end of the week. The range of uncertainty remains large
regarding rainfall amounts, between some solutions missing
central PA, and others bringing over an inch of rain. The drier
solutions would result in a continuation of warmer than average daytime
temperatures and seasonably cool nights (80s/50s), while a
wetter pattern would limit the diurnal temperature range and
keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions under clear skies will continue into the
overnight hours across Central Pennsylvania with only a few
high clouds streaming in from the southwest associated with
Francine. Similar to the last several nights, valley fog will
develop after midnight, with restrictions likely at several
airfields. In addition, southeast flow will promote advection of
some lower clouds and reduced visibility to the Lower
Susquehanna Valley toward daybreak.
Persistence is probably a good forecast with a similar airmass
in place, though lighter winds overnight with high pressure
directly overhead could support even more widespread and longer
lasting restrictions at airfields compared to the last few
nights.
Fog will mix out Friday morning, with some restrictions
potentially lingering until 14Z before a mostly sunny day
emerges areawide. Wildfire smoke aloft will move overhead
Friday afternoon making the sky appear a bit more milky/hazy
than normal, despite the lack of clouds.
Outlook...
Fri-Mon...AM valley fog north & central; otherwise, no sig wx.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
804 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An active pattern remains favored for next week.
- Above normal to well above normal temperatures continue
through at least late next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024
The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire given the
improved relative humidity values. Breezy conditions will
continue overnight with gusts to 50 mph possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Western trough will continue its northward trek towards the northern
Plains through the afternoon hours. An 850mb jet will continue
through the afternoon and strengthen towards the late
afternoon/early evening. As this occurs a 3-5 mb pressure rise
continues to be seen on the GFS/RAP/NAM/HRRR across eastern
Colorado. As this occurs wind gusts of 55+ mph remain possible
mainly for those along the KS/CO state line and perhaps a row of
counties further east dependent on the final orientation of the jet
at that time.
Still continuing to monitor for the potential for some blowing dust
to develop this afternoon across eastern portions of the area.
Office dust research parameters continue to be met and exceeded,
however the question still remains if the wind will be strong enough
for dust to get lofted. If it is able to get lofted then some
organized dust and dust impacts including visibility restrictions
will be possible. Confidence in this continues to remain low (10%)
but will continue to leave the patchy dust wording in the forecast.
Red Flag Warning remains, however it appears the dryline will be
set up across central portions of east Colorado. Will continue to
leave the product in effect for NW Kansas and SW Nebraska despite
the fact that RH values will fall into the low to mid 20s the
combination strong winds and ready to burn fuels will still support
explosive fire growth along the with extreme GFDI values.
Winds will slowly wane through the night and the morning hours
Friday. A weak front moves through area Friday shifting winds to the
NNE across western portions of the area. Eastern area will continue
to see breezy SE winds gusting around 20-25 mph through the
afternoon. No fire concerns are anticipated due to higher RH
values. A few showers or storms may be possible along the front
during the afternoon as temperatures approach convective
temperatures. The RAP 700-500mb moisture shows limited moisture
in the level ahead of the front with best moisture remaining
across central and eastern Nebraska; it also has drier mid level
air pushing in behind it. Have brought down pops more into the
slight chance category and have confined them to Red Willow,
northern Decatur and Norton counties. An area of haze or perhaps
smoke may also move into the area from western fires during the
afternoon hours currently favoring eastern Colorado. The
thickest concentrations according to the 12Z HRRR Near Surface
Smoke and Vertically Integrated Smoke currently favors just west
of the area so will leave out of the forecast for now but will
increase the sky cover for now to account for this potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024
The extended period continues to appear more active with potential
severe, wind, and fire. Saturday will see the jet stream begin to
take on some troughiness features as we continue our southeasterly
flow of moisture advection. Some guidance is also suggesting a
surface convergence boundary developing across eastern Colorado
which may support isolated storm development. Forecast
soundings currently suggest that hail threat would be possible
given MUCAPE values of 2000 j/kg, 0-6 shear of 30-35 knots and
surface to EL shear of near 50 knots which would be supportive
of 1.5-2 inch hail. Due to the isolated nature and the meager
signal for it will opt to go with silent pops for now.
Troughing will continue to deepen Sunday and into Monday before
ejecting towards the Plains. Will need to watch for some subtle
waves as storm potential may be possible each day as well.
Tuesday the trough will take similar path to today`s trough by
it moving north towards the northern Plains. Any hazards will be
dependent on the timing of this occurring. GFS forecast
soundings currently show 40-45 knot winds within a shallow
mixing layer and keeping winds for western areas more SW
supporting a high wind and fire threat and perhaps some severe
threat out east. Upcoming shifts will need to continue to
monitor the trends. EFI wind and wind gusts highlight a good
majority of the region in the shift of tails as well suggesting
that anomalous winds (gusty to strong) remain favored.
Guidance, including ensembles also support a second trough towards
the mid to late portions of the week as well. There is however
discrepancies on the evolution of this trough should it develop
such as how deep will it become, the track, or it becomes more
of split flow pattern. Either way there is supporting evidence
that active weather will continue perhaps into next weekend as
well.
Temperatures remain forecasted to be well above normal for mid
September standards in the 80s to 90s across the area. However with
the troughiness pattern ensuing it may be safe to assume that some
potential for a day or two of more normal temperatures may be
possible as well. However will be dependent on the timing of the
troughs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Gusty to windy conditions will continue for the majority of this
TAF period to around 13Z over KGLD and ~15Z over KMCK. There`s
been consistent signal that a period of stronger winds of 30-
45 kts will be possible through 06Z. The LLJ will strengthen
even more this evening with LLWS currently forecasted around
40-55 kts for each terminal beginning around 04-06Z through ~13Z.
Winds will slowly wane through the morning hours Friday as a
cold front moves over the Central High Plains.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KMK
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1018 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
To the east of our area, Tropical Depression Francine continues
meandering northward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys, and to the northwest, latest water vapor imagery and RUC
analysis indicates a trough slowly translating eastward across the
Great Basin and into the northern Rockies. Between these two
features, midlevel ridging is developing over New Mexico and West
Texas, with increasing thicknesses and continued subsidence
resulting in a continued warming trend this afternoon. After quite
a few days of near and below normal temperatures, highs today are
on target to top out a couple degrees above normal for most of
the area, in the lower to middle 90s for most, with lower 100s
along the Rio Grande, and 80s in the mountains. This warming trend
will be evident tonight as well, as lows only drop into the
middle to upper 60s for most, with the only 50s to be found over
the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau.
Heading into Friday, we`ll see our hottest day of the forecast as
the aforementioned ridge moves overhead. Highs are progged to
climb to around 7-10 degrees above normal for most, reaching
into the upper 90s and lower 100s for many, with the hottest
temperatures to be found along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys
and across portions of the northeastern Permian Basin. NBM
probabilistic guidance indicates a roughly 40% chance that Midland
reaches the century mark once again, which would be the 32nd time
hitting that threshold so far this year. While not entirely
likely, with a forecast high of 99F, it is not outside the realm
of possibility. Thus, those with outdoor plans on Friday afternoon
and evening will need to make efforts to stay hydrated and as
cool as possible, and be aware of the signs and symptoms of heat-
related illnesses. Friday night will reflect the warmer
temperatures after the hot afternoon, with lows only expected to
fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s areawide. Unfortunately, for
those hoping for rain, the forecast remains dry.
JP
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
This weekend into the new week does not contain much in the way of
significant weather. Overall, a blocking pattern with the remnants
of current Tropical Depression Francine over the Southeast,
persistent ridging across east Texas, and a developing western
CONUS trough holds through the period. What this means is much of
the same weather each day through the extended forecast.
Temperatures do cool off a touch into next week as the main
thermal ridge axis remains to the east, but remain above normal.
Widespread upper 80s to middle 90s are commonplace each afternoon
under mostly sunny skies. Overnight temperatures become rather
mild in the upper 60s and low 70s at the same time. Rain chances
are essentially non-existent with large-scale subsidence over the
southern Great Plains. There is a glimmer of hope by the end of
next week as the western CONUS trough begins to migrate east. When
this eventually occurs, this should allow for potential weather
systems or fronts to move across the area. This may bring the
return of rain and near normal temperatures if this happens. We
will have to keep watch as this pattern develops and comes more
into focus early next week.
-Chehak
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under weak ridging
aloft. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field during the
afternoon, w/bases ranging from ~ 7 kft AGL out west to ~ 4.5 kft
AGL east. A 35+kt LLJ will keep winds elevated Friday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 68 99 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 63 100 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 69 100 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 69 100 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 67 92 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 64 98 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 54 93 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 69 99 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 68 99 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 67 101 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
652 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The remnants of Tropical Depression Francine will impact the
region this evening through the weekend. The steadiest
rainfall will move through tonight while daily chances of
scattered showers and storms persist Friday through at least
Sunday. Total rainfall between 1 to 3 inches is expected. Wind
gusts between 20 to 30 mph are also possible.
- More humid conditions can be expected Friday into the weekend
with high temperatures about 5 degrees below normal in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Drier conditions return by the middle
of next week, but a significant warm up near to slightly above
normal looks likely by Thursday and Friday with highs back in
the upper 80s to near 90.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Sfc analysis shows Tropical Depression Francine located over central
Mississippi as the remnants will begin to impact the FA this evening
with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The latest NHC advisory now
takes Francine into NE Arkansas by Friday morning when the center of
low pressure will become post tropical. Meanwhile, clouds continue
to thicken this afternoon as saturation in the low-levels of the
column will be slow to occur due to dewpoints still in the 50s.
MaxTs will range from the low to mid 80s.
Between 00-06z tonight, the outer rain bands will spread from south
to north as an axis of 850 mb frontogenesis rapidly causes the
column to saturate. Have PoPs turning "categorical" as this is when
the steadiest rainfall can be expected. Winds will also increase as
the pressure gradient tightens. Leaned above NBM guidance again for
wind gusts between 20-30 mph as the percentiles for 850 mb winds
above 50+ kts and SLP near 1008 mb in the FA are still supportive of
better mixing in the boundary layer.
By Friday, additional scattered showers and storms remain likely,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours as cyclonic flow
associated with a 500 mb low provides additional forcing for ascent.
Still not terribly concerned about the severe weather potential as
the better ingredients remain SE of the FA. It is worth noting other
model guidance has trended higher with dewpoints in the lower 70s
like previous runs of the NAM. For this reason, the RAP now shows a
swath of MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg developing over western
Kentucky in the afternoon to support scattered storms. Unlike Beryl
which had a lot more momentum, Francine will have a much weaker wind
field on Friday inhibiting the severe potential.
Overall, total QPF is now progged between 1.0-2.5 inches, with
locally 3.0 inches possible as the heavy rainfall potential
continues to shift south. Given the D1-D2 drought conditions,
flooding is not a concern other than localized runoff on roadways
with torrential tropical downpours. Daily scattered shower and storm
chances do linger over the weekend, with the highest PoPs progged
during the afternoon hours. While the humidity will be higher with
dewpoints near 70, maxTs will be about 5 degrees below normal
ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
By next week, model guidance remains persistent in showing an omega
block pattern setting up as one closed 500 mb low will be over the
SE CONUS while another one will be located over the W CONUS. Cylonic
flow will keep pcpn chances in the forecast on Monday due to some
additional tropical moisture from the east with another possible
disturbance, but by Tuesday is progged to only be a "slight chance"
by the NBM as sfc high pressure located near New England builds into
the Ohio Valley. By the middle of next week, a ridge axis over the
central Plains will begin to build more east allowing for temps to
return to near to slightly above normal. In fact, a significant warm
up is looking likely as the LREF box & whisker plots range from the
mid 80s to near 90, especially on Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
MVFR/areas of IFR CIGS/VIS will spread northward across the taf
sites due to the remnants of "Francine". Bands of moderate rain
across the area can be expected into Friday.
An increase in the pressure gradient will also mean more breezy
conditions. East winds between 10-16 kts with gusts around
20-25 kts are possible.
Lingering SHRA remains possible mainly at KPAH/KCGI after 15z
while drier conditions are expected across the northern
terminals. Towards the end of the TAF period, the risk for TSRA
does begin to increase, especially across western Kentucky. East
winds around 10 kts with gusts around 20 kts are possible.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...WFO DVN/Haase
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1032 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Francine made landfall across the Louisiana coast last
evening. The storm will weaken while moving north across the lower
Mississippi Valley through Friday. Surface high pressure will extend
into the middle Atlantic into the weekend as moisture spreads into
the Carolinas. Low pressure will develop off the Carolina coast on
Sunday and move northwest toward the Carolinas early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 PM Thursday...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine is currently centered near Memphis,
and it will move slowly WNW into northern AR tonight. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure centered off the New England coast will nose
down into the Appalachians as an inverted trough off the Southeast
US coast tries to slowly push west. A band of showers extends east
from Francine into the western Carolinas, and some light rain is
being reported from it as far east as around CLT. This may make it
into our southern and western Piedmont over the next few hours, but
it will be fighting dry air that is still in the low and mid levels
from the aforementioned surface ridging, so if anything does fall it
would be very light.
A better chance of rain comes later tonight after 06z especially
across the Sandhills and central/southern Coastal Plain as the
inverted trough tries to push a coastal front inland. Clouds will
thicken and lower, and PW values will increase to around 2 inches by
early tomorrow morning across the SE. The precipitation will be
fighting some drier air initially, but the column should eventually
moisten there. A bit of MUCAPE (around 500 J/kg or less) may make it
to the far SE as well. While the greatest instability and rainfall
totals will be near the coast, scattered showers should move into
our southern and eastern areas, and an isolated storm can`t be ruled
out. Total QPF is around a quarter inch or less. POPs are no more
than slight across the north and west due to the dry air and
ridging. Low temperatures tonight will range from mid-60s north to
near 70 in the far SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 PM Thursday...
The remnants of Francine will be over NE Arkansas early Fri morning.
The system is not expected to move much into Fri night, migrating
slowly south and east into the TN and lower MS valleys into northern
MS. High pressure will continue to nose down into our area, favoring
an ENE surface wind. The pressure gradient between the high to our
NE and the remnants of Francine will increase our wind/gusts in the
day and night, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph, gusting at times
to 20-25 mph. The low-levels will increasingly bring onshore flow,
moistening the lowest layers of the atmosphere, favoring
stratocumulus in the afternoon and evening. Aloft, the flow will be
SW, becoming SE toward the end of the period as ridging over the
Great Lakes provides more influence.
The 12z CAMs and global/regional ensembles are mixed on rainfall
chances. The HRRR is similar to the GFS/HREF in generating more
shower activity across the eastern Sandhills to Coastal Plain and
eastern Piedmont. This appears tied to the fact that mid-level FGEN
and a inverted coastal trough combined with moist upglide in these
models is stronger than the other model guidance. The HRRR also
shows slightly more instability of near 800 J/kg. The HREF PMM/LPMM
shows a quarter to three quarters of an inch over the
southern/central Coastal Plain, compared to a tenth of an inch or
less in the NAM-NEST and EPS/GEPS over much of central NC. The other
models generate precipitation mainly in the Sandhills to western
Piedmont, where upslope moistening is present, which seems
plausible. For now, will continue to highlight low QPF amounts over
the northern and western zones, with best rain chances in the
eastern Sandhills to central Coastal Plain, maximizing in the
morning and afternoon. Rain chances look to lessen in the evening
and overnight as any mid-level forcing wanes and instability is
reduced. Highs should be a few degrees cooler than Thu with
increasing cloudiness, despite slightly higher thicknesses, in the
mid/upper 70s W to near 80 in the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 322 PM Thursday...
Broad troughing will exist Saturday extending from the remnants of
Francine over the southern Miss Valley eastward to a baggy area of
low pressure off the SE coast. Meanwhile, high pressure centered
over NY will extend southward into the Carolina, reminiscent of a
CAD pattern. Vigorous moist easterly flow will overrun the stable
low levels and result in ample cloudiness and patchy light rain or
drizzle from time to time on Saturday, but mainly south of the hwy
64 corridor. Certainly not a soaking rain, but more of a nuisance
rain. It`s worth noting that the models indicate some drier air
across our northern zones in the afternoon... so some sunshine looks
possible there. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80.
The pattern becomes more complicated by Sunday, with an upper closed
low consolidating over the Southeast. The GFS responds with a
fairly vigorous sfc low developing off of SC, while the ECMWF
features a much weaker low, perhaps even just a low pres wave along
the old boundary. Then as we head through Monday and Tuesday, the
GFS is much more aggressive and wet and potentially windy across our
area while it moves the sfc low NW across our CWA. The ECMWF
remains much weaker with an inverted trough lingering along the
coast. So while the GFS is certainly more impactful, both result in
a wet and unsettled weather scenario for at least the first half of
next week, along with a prolonged period of cloudy and cooler-than-
normal conditions. Obviously the GFS QPF is much higher, with 2 to
5 inches of rain possible through the mid to late-week period, while
the ECWMF features substantially lighter QPF. For now, we`re at
least confident enough to increase PoPs next week (highest early
next week)... with the caveat that if the GFS is correct, the
weather could be rather impactful early next week. Stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions across the area at the moment but this will change
overnight as MVFR/IFR ceilings develop and overspread the area.
Rainfall will also make its way into the area, reaching FAY before
12Z but likely holding off until later in the day (early afternoon)
elsewhere. Vsbys likely to hold in the 3-5SM range within any rain
that develops. At the same time, breezy northeasterly winds are
expected with occasional gusts around 20kts possible from mid
morning onward through the end of the TAF period.
Outlook: Increased rain chances late Friday through the weekend will
result in unfavorable flight conditions. Ceiling and visibilities
restrictions will vary Friday night with the scattered showers ahead
of the frontal boundary to the south of the region. As the frontal
boundary wavers to the south through the weekend, the restrictions
will vary from VFR to sub-VFR conditions. Depending on the
development of the the low pressure off the coast early next week
unfavorable conditions will continue through at least mid week.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Leins/CA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
813 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Most of the shower activity is starting to wind down across the
areas and whatever is left should be done in the next hour or two.
After that we can expect a quiet overnight period. For tomorrow it
looks like the highest concentration of rain and storms should be
along the Nature Coast with shower chances diminishing as we head
south.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
The synoptic pattern shows broad upper ridging and surface high
pressure well to the north over the mid-Atlantic and New England
states. A sloppy weather pattern persists over the southeast U.S. A
stationary frontal boundary remains stretched from west to east
across northern Florida, while high pressure ridges through the
Florida Straits. We also have Tropical Depression Francine located
over Mississippi slowly moving northward. Cloudy conditions will
persist through the day. These clouds can be attributed to this
lingering stationary frontal boundary over the area and the extreme
outer bands of Tropical Depression Francine moving eastward across
the eastern gulf waters. Showers and storms have been firing along
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of these outer
bands. The latest HRRR guidance has these bands combined with the
west coast sea breeze moving into the west coast this afternoon and
evening with scattered showers and storms possible later today.
By Friday morning, Tropical Storm Francine will be located over
northeast Arkansas. This will allow the upper ridging and surface
high pressure over southern Florida to shift slightly northward,
which in turn will shift the stationary boundary slightly northward
as well. Models are hinting at some slightly drier air over the
region by Saturday with PWATs ranging between 1.8 - 2.1 inches and
further drying out by Sunday with PWATs dipping to 1.5 - 1.8 inches
and continuing into next week. This drier air will equate to lower
rain chances starting Sunday and continuing into next week. We can`t
take rain out of the forecast all together, but will say that it
will dip into the 30-50 percent range for the latter part of the
forecast, which is much lower than we have seen in the past couple
of weeks.
The tropics remain somewhat active with Tropical Depression Francine
located over Mississippi and will continue to weaken over land over
the next couple of days. The NHC is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Seven located in the eastern Atlantic and will
continue to slowly move westward through next week. There are 2 more
areas in the western and central Atlantic that has a 30 percent
chance of development over the next 7 days. The good news is that
neither of these systems pose a threat to the Florida peninsula at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 808 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Showers are diminishing but storms are still lingering around TPA
and PIE. This storms should be gone in the next hour. Expecting
VFR conditions overnight with storms back into the forecast again
tomorrow mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
High pressure continues to be in place over south Florida and a
stationary frontal boundary over north and central Florida. Winds in
the vicinity of these features will remain 15 knots or less through
the period. Residual waves from Tropical Depression Francine is
producing increased wave heights and long period swells along the
west coast of Florida. This will lead to an elevated rip current
risk for today and Friday. A Rip Current Risk Statement remains in
effect from Pinellas County southward through Friday evening.
Francine will lift north and dissipate by the end of the week,
allowing the swells and wave heights to decrease into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
A stationary frontal boundary remains stretched across northern
Florida with high pressure over south Florida. This pattern will
favor warm and humid weather through the week. Scattered showers and
storms can be expected each day through the period. No fire weather
concerns are expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 79 90 77 / 50 20 50 30
FMY 92 78 92 78 / 50 10 40 20
GIF 92 77 91 76 / 60 20 60 20
SRQ 92 79 90 78 / 40 10 40 30
BKV 91 75 89 74 / 60 30 60 30
SPG 91 81 89 81 / 40 20 40 30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby