Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/12/24


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Breezy and dry areawide Thursday and Friday as a system moves across the northern Rockies. Winds on Thursday will be locally windy across far northern and western areas. Increasing moisture from a tropical system over Baja California begins to move into southwest areas late Saturday spreading north and east to most of the forecast area Sunday and Monday ahead of a deeper Pacific storm. Shower and storm chances on Sunday and Monday will favor western and central areas. Drier westerly flow moves in Tuesday south of the aforementioned storm drying and clearing skies out areawide. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Current round of isolated to scattered daytime heating triggered convection is high-based and favoring strong/erratic wind gusts over wetting rainfall, although a few spots have likely received 0.25" This round will continue into the early evening hours before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. PWATs will trend down significantly through Thursday night as an upper level trough/low moves east across the Intermountain West and steers dry westerlies over the Desert SW and NM. Smoke from SoCal wildfires is currently moving west across the Desert SW and into the southern Rockies per the latest visible satellite imagery and will descend overnight, resulting in areas of haze Thursday morning into early afternoon. Visibilities should remain at or above 6 miles in haze Thursday. A deepening lee side trough combined with increasing southwest winds aloft and daytime mixing will bring breezy to locally windy conditions by Thursday afternoon. Our area is forecast to be void of convection Thursday, mainly due to a lack of moisture. The Albuquerque Sunport is forecast to hit a high of 90 degrees Thursday, which could be the 3rd day in a row and potentially the last 90 degree day of the calendar year. Low temperatures will trend down some Thursday night due to more efficient radiational cooling with a dry airmass over the area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Mid and upper level winds relax on Friday as an upper low over the northern Rockies moves north into Canada. Temperatures cool 1 to 3 degrees closer to mid September averages across western and central NM behind a weak Pacific front, but remain hot across eastern NM due to the downsloping westerly flow. Roswell is forecasted to get to 100 degrees on Friday which should hopefully be the last 100 degree day of the year and would be the 6th latest 100 degree day if it occurs. Weak ridging to quasizonal flow over the state on Saturday ahead of a weak disturbance over southern CA and NV. This disturbance looks to help bring up some mid and upper level moisture from an eventual tropical system over the Gulf of California across northern Mexico, southeast AZ and southwest NM. Saturday should be a dry day for a majority of the forecast area, but a few high based showers and storms can`t be ruled out across the southern high terrain with gusty and erratic winds likely being the main hazard. This higher moisture moves north across most of the state Sunday as a upper level trough along the Pacific NW coast digs south and eventually closes off into a low late in the day. PWATS along and north of I 40 increase from around 0.4 to 0.5 inches Saturday to 0.7 to 0.9 inches Sunday. Showers and storms will favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain with rather quick storm motion at around 20 to 30 mph to the northeast. This will help to limit the burn scar flash flooding threat with the one exception being training storms, but that scenario is unlikely. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby storms could impact those heading to the final day of the state fair in Albuquerque. Higher moisture continues to funnel northeast on Monday as the upper low moves southeast over the Great Basin. PWATs increase a little more to 0.8 to 1.1 inches across the state with showers and storms possible for most of the state. Storm motion will again be brisk to the northeast at 25 to 35 mph limiting the burn scar flash flood threat. The upper low opens up and moves across the northern and central Rockies Tuesday bringing drier westerly flow across the state. PWATs drop rapidly behind the Pacific front to around 0.4 to 0.6 inches. West and southwest winds will be breezy to locally windy behind the Pacific front with the strongest winds with gusts of up to 40 mph across northeast NM near a 995 mb lee low over eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Isolated high-based SHRA/TS across northern and central NM will dissipate thru sunset. This activity will be capable of gusty outflow winds, brief rain, and localized BLDU. The focus will shift to hazy skies overnight and Thursday morning as smoke from wildfires over AZ/CA moves east. Confidence is low on any actual vsby impacts given the lower-end concentrations shown by the HRRR model over NM. The greatest chance for vsbys <6SM would be from KFMN to KGUP given the closer proximity to smoke source regions. Southwest winds will trend stronger Thursday afternoon as drier air filters into the region. This will likely mix any smoke out into the upper atmosphere. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 A round of mixed wet/dry convection currently over the area will provide a very small wetting footprint, some dry lightning and strong/erratic wind gusts through the early evening hours before diminishing. An upper level trough/low will move east across the Intermountain West Thursday and steer stronger winds aloft and a much drier airmass over the area, bringing spotty critical fire weather conditions. Relatively dry conditions will continue Friday, but with less wind as the upper level trough pulls northeast away from the region. A Pacific trough will pick up tropical moisture Saturday and steer it north and east across AZ/NM, resulting in increasing humidity and chances for wetting storms Sunday into Monday with the potential for burn scar flooding. Another west coast trough/low is forecast Tue/Wed of next week, steering stronger southwest flow across the area and bringing a drying trend going into the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 54 88 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 83 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 49 84 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 45 85 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 48 83 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 44 87 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 49 84 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 86 54 83 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 48 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 48 86 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 58 90 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 77 43 75 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 56 83 56 80 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 52 82 53 79 / 10 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 78 46 77 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 41 69 41 68 / 10 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 32 74 32 73 / 20 0 0 5 Taos............................ 44 82 45 81 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 45 80 47 78 / 20 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 54 89 54 88 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 84 56 82 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 87 52 85 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 89 59 87 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 91 60 89 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 93 57 91 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 91 61 89 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 55 94 56 90 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 57 92 58 91 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 93 55 89 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 58 92 59 91 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 54 93 57 89 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 57 89 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 60 91 59 90 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 60 95 59 92 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 83 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 56 86 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 52 86 51 84 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 87 49 87 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 83 51 83 / 20 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 53 85 52 83 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 52 86 52 83 / 10 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 60 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 55 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 48 83 51 81 / 20 0 0 0 Raton........................... 46 87 49 88 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 47 88 49 90 / 20 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 47 84 49 85 / 20 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 57 89 59 93 / 20 0 0 0 Roy............................. 52 87 54 86 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 57 94 57 94 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 54 93 56 90 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 57 95 59 96 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 57 93 60 96 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 56 94 59 97 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 56 95 57 94 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 60 99 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 57 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 56 88 56 90 / 0 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1027 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through at least early next week, maintaining dry weather and above average temperatures for the foreseeable future. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1020 PM Update: High pressure offshore of Provincetown is extending a surface ridge axis SSW through south-coastal MA, CT and RI; it is here where the strongest cooling rates have been observed over the last couple hours, with temps in the low to mid 50s, close to observed dewpoints. Further north, enough of a light SSW flow is keeping temps here in the mid 50s to lower 60s at this hour. Won`t be too much change to the position of the high pressure area through the remainder of the evening. The more notable fcst changes were in southeast MA, RI and eastern CT. Adjusted hourly temps downward using bias- corrected HRRR datasets which shows the lower temps over southeast New England the best. This resulted in reducing lows here as well into the upper 40s to lower 50s, and some areas were already at or below their forecast lows. Because temps were already near dewpoint temps in these same southeastern New England areas, I ended up adding a mention of fog too. MOS guidance doesn`t really show much signal for this, although the higher-resolution model guidance does; seeing as there is already an expanding fog layer east of ACK currently, in light of the observed temp/dewpoint spreads felt it should be added in. The extent of the fog is in some question with how dry it has been of late though. No other fcst changes needed attm for the remainder of Southern New England. Previous discussion: High pressure just offshore. Light S to SW winds for some, with calm winds for others. Near normal temperatures expected with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s. Patchy fog possible late tonight mainly in portions of the CT River valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Not much change to the overall pattern. High pressure offshore, but still nearby. It looks like S/SW winds could keep the seabreeze from developing along the east coast of MA, but would be more comfortable with that statement if winds were slightly stronger. Will need to monitor the potential for a seabreeze with later forecasts. Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * High pressure remains in control through early next week, allowing for continued dry weather. The dry weather pattern continues well into the extended forecast as guidance agrees that an upper-level blocking ridge will keep high pressure parked over the region. With clear skies during the day, high temps will top out in the low to mid-80s through the middle of next week. Expecting good radiational cooling each night with light winds and clear skies. Blended the NBM and consensus MOS for overnight lows through Tuesday, bringing temps in the mid to upper 50s. Looking way ahead to late next week, guidance indicates the upper level ridge will start to break down, with some weak shortwave energy moving through. This would be the next best chance for precip, but uncertainty remains high. Stayed with NBM for POPs for the middle to end of next week, showing 20-40% precip chances. We continue to monitor tropical development in the eastern Atlantic and near the SE Atlantic coast. NHC shows several areas of possible tropical development, along with the newly formed Tropical Depression Seven. With the blocking ridge overhead, this should steer any tropical activity away from our region. For more information, please visit www.nhc.noaa.gov. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Tonight: High confidence overall, though is moderate on fog development. Mainly VFR; higher moisture levels would favor a better chance for patchy radiation fog across portions of southeast MA and RI and into portions of eastern CT after 06z. May need to introduce mention of BR/FG for the Cape airports and perhaps into PVD too with later TAFs issuances. Light SE to S winds, calm at times. Thursday and Thursday Night: High confidence. Any fog which developed overnight becomes VFR early Thu morning. S/SW winds around 5-10 kt; looks like eastern MA seabreeze stays offshore of KBOS. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday Night: High confidence. High pressure remains over the waters for the next several days. Light winds with daily sea breezes are expected, and seas 2 ft or less expected. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP NEAR TERM...Belk/Loconto/KP SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...KP AVIATION...Belk/Loconto/KP MARINE...Belk/Loconto/KP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
945 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Stretch of pleasant and dry weather through the weekend with above average temperatures for mid September * No impacts expected from Francine * The chance of rain will increase by the middle of next week && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Another mainly clear and comfortable night ahead with min temps 45-60F and radiational fog in the usual river/stream valleys. Low stratus may also try to sneak into the extreme southeast zones thanks to developing southeast flow. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A persistence forecast is a good bet with high pressure firmly in control providing more nice weather through the end of the week. A southeast flow should result in a slight uptick in humidity and may also try to advect some low stratus into parts of the southern tier and Lower Susq Valley during the overnight hours. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s over most of the forecast area. Guidance continues to indicate nighttime fog formation in the favored valleys of north central PA. The HRRR Smoke model also continues to show an increase in vertically integrated smoke, which will make skies look more hazy/milky by Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Medium range guidance supports a high confidence of warm and dry weather this weekend into early next week associated with persistent upper ridging. Abundant sunshine and ensemble mean 850mb temps in the 14-15C range support highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. However, surface ridging and associated dry air should result in decent radiational cooling each night, with min temps near seasonal levels. Although the air will be dry, patchy river valley fog remains possible each morning. As the remnants of Francine over the Mississippi Valley run into building high pressure over the Northeast US late Sat into Sun, its forward motion will slow significantly. Medium range guidance shows the associated midlevel low opening into a trough extending from the Mississippi Valley to the waters off the Southeast US. Subsequently, a developing coastal low off the South Carolina coastline becomes the dominant feature later Sunday into Monday. Although the coastal low will start off non- tropical, the NHC gives it a 20 pct chance of becoming tropical or subtropical early next week. As the high over the Northeast US pushes east late Tue into Wed, this will ultimately allow the coastal low to drift westward and northward, with the potential for a period of unsettled weather in central PA from Tuesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure over the region will result in fair weather and light winds through Thursday. Early morning valley fog will be the only aviation concern. Latest guidance suggests all Central PA airfields, with the exception of KJST, could potentially (40-70pct chance) experience a brief period of IFR conditions early Thursday morning. Any fog should disperse by 13-14Z based on latest NAMNest and LAMP guidance. Outlook... Fri-Mon...AM valley fog north & central; otherwise, no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Colbert AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
931 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible. - Critical fire weather conditions are expected for most of the area on Thursday with strong winds gusting 40 to 50 MPH. Red Flag Warnings have been issued. && .UPDATE... Issued at 656 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Updated this evenings forecast to increase POP mainly across the Nebraska Panhandle. Multiple lines of thunderstorms are moving across the area with additional developing along outflow boundaries. Expect scattered to numerous showers until midnight with thunderstorm activity diminishing after 9 PM. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 A weak shortwave moving across the CWA ahead of the main trough will bring widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to the CWA this afternoon. A quick shot of moist southerly flow into the mid-levels along with lift from the vorticity max aloft will be enough to produce storms. RAP model soundings show decent amounts of CAPE, but not nearly enough for any organized convection as indicated by other Hi-Res guidance. Although the mid-levels are moist, the surface remains dry with inverted-V sounding profiles. As a result, cannot rule out any strong wind gusts with showers and storms this afternoon and evening. As the upper-level trough swings into Wyoming on Thursday, expect a windy and dry day. The position of the trough places the CWA right in the dry slot of this system. The dry air intrusion will rapidly dry out the mid-levels and surface on Thursday. Rapid cyclogenesis will also occur over northern Wyoming, leading to a strong pressure gradient across much of the state. In fact, the NAEFS mean shows MSLP values approaching climatological lows across Wyoming and the forecast area. This will set the stage for widespread gusty winds. Frequent gusts over 40 MPH can be expected. Would not be surprised if wind prone locations like Arlington gust to 50 MPH Thursday afternoon. The combination of the dry conditions and gusty winds will lead to fire weather concerns. As a result, went ahead and upgraded the Fire Weather Watches that were in place to Red Flag Warnings. Although precipitation chances during the day will be near zero, an isolated storm or two could develop in and around the northern Nebraska panhandle Thursday evening. Models show decent mid- level moisture along the leading edge of the trough. While it seems this moisture may stay solidly in South Dakota, some Hi-Res guidance like the HRRR are picking up on the potential for some storm development in the northern panhandle. With strong lift present from the trough, did keep slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast for the aforementioned areas. If storms do develop, there is a good chance of them producing strong to severe wind gusts. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 The upper-level pattern is expected to remain somewhat active in the extended forecast period w/ general long-wave troughing most likely persisting through early to mid next week. The post-fropa cool down on Friday will be short lived w/ a slight trend toward warmer temperatures over the weekend as the thermal ridge begins to build back into the region. Highly active quasi-zonal mid and upper-level flow could help hold temperatures back slightly, but daytime highs may still reach the upper 80s to near 90 deg F for the western NE Panhandle on Sunday. The next substantial shot of cooler air should arrive on Tuesday as the next trough digs into the Great Basin. Despite the very active pattern aloft, profiles remain very dry and any chances for convection should be minimal until late in the forecast period ahead of the next larger scale disturbance aloft. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 929 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 No major changes to the aviation forecasts. Largely MVFR to VFR conditions expected through the forecast period for all terminals. Latest radar imagery has kept some lingerings showers and thunderstorms pulsing across the Nebraska Panhandle, bringing some gusty winds across the Nebraska terminals. Should continue to see these moving east, before clearing out in the overnight hours. Into tomorrow, upper level closed low is expected to break off from the main flow and setting up across northeastern Wyoming. Increased gradients from this pattern will bring increased wind speeds tomorrow, with strong wind gusts possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely on Thursday. Upgraded the existing Fire Weather Watches to Red Flag Warnings as dry conditions and gusty winds with a cold front will lead to favorable fire weather conditions across most of the area. Minimum RHs will likely fall below 15 percent for a majority of the forecast area, however, the strong winds will be the main concern. Frequent gusts over 40 MPH will be possible throughout the afternoon which could lead to rapid spread of any fires that do develop. Wetting rain chances during the day will be minimal, but could be possible during the evening in the northern Nebraska panhandle. More dry and breezy days are expected Friday and into the weekend, leading to a prolonged concern for elevated fire weather conditions. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ417>423- 425-427>433. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ434>437. && $$ UPDATE...TJT SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CLH AVIATION...MRD FIRE WEATHER...SF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
751 PM MST Wed Sep 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and cooler conditions are expected to finish out the week, along with gusty southwest winds today and Thursday. Unsettled and cooler weather then continues into next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning by Sunday. && .UPDATE...Temperatures are still mostly in the 60s and 70s across northern Arizona this evening. These warmish evening temperatures are due to the continued breezy conditions across many areas, especially locations downslope from terrain. Wind speeds will gradually decline throughout the overnight period, but it won`t become completely calm out there. On the plus side, elevated overnight winds should keep our overnight/morning lows a few degrees warmer than we`ve experienced that last few mornings. Expect another hazy/smokey morning from wildfires in California (plus some local smoke for areas near Payson and along the rim), and another afternoon full of gusty winds. Look for daytime highs ~5 degrees cooler tomorrow than today (Wednesday). The previous forecast package remains largely on track with only minor updates made tonight. Check out the previous discussion for more details. && .PREV DISCUSSION /425 PM MST/...Smoke from the CA wildfires is thinning out this afternoon, but hazy skies are still being observed across much of the Southwest. A similar scenario looks likely tonight given the approaching upper level trough and enhanced southwest flow that can easily transport smoke into Arizona. The HRRR smoke is beginning to suggest this as well. Now that we`ve had some more sunshine to increase turbulent mixing this afternoon, wind speeds are beginning to increase. We`re seeing peak gusts of around 30 to near 40 mph. These will continue through about sunset before decreasing. Winds are not expected to entirely decouple overnight, but are mostly expected to decrease. The exception is a band just east of the San Francisco Peaks where enhanced downslope winds (gusting 30-45 mph) will develop late tonight through Thursday morning. Gusts of 30-45 mph will become more widespread throughout the day on Thursday. The strongest winds aloft peak Thursday morning and will be decreasing through the day, so the extent of winds over 40 mph was not great enough for a Wind Advisory. The most impacted area will be between Flagstaff and Winslow along I-40 that will see the most persistent gusts in excess of 40 mph. The parent trough continues to push northward on Friday, but pressure gradients remain sufficient for breezy winds to continue. Daytime temperatures will be decreasing through the week, reaching closer to normal by both Thursday and Friday. There continues to be model agreement this weekend in the aligning of a deeper Pacific trough and a quick moisture surge, aided by a tropical system tracking over Baja and Sonora, Mexico. Forecast precipitable water values are not overly impressive, but are sufficient with the added dynamics of the trough to produce showers and thunderstorms. The chance for showers/storms will return to the forecast late Saturday night and spread northward through Sunday. The combination of moisture and forcing from the approaching trough will continue thunderstorm chances through Monday before drier air returns Tuesday. The enhanced southwest flow and environmental wind shear will bring the threat for some severe storms, and we will continue monitoring this potential. Dry weather is expected to return from Tuesday onward. Temperatures will continue to cool with the second trough passage early next week, and will reach the coolest yet this season (about 10 degrees below average). && .AVIATION...Thursday 12/00Z through Friday 13/00Z...VFR conditions persist through the period with mostly clear skies. Expect the gusty surface winds 20-30 kts from the southwest to continue until 02Z/03Z, becoming lighter 5-15 kts overnight. Mid to upper-level winds will remain gusty, 30-40 kts. Scattered smoke and haze is likely again overnight, however, should remain aloft. Gusty southwest surface winds return by 15Z/16Z, 20-35 kts. OUTLOOK...Friday 13/00Z through Sunday 15/00Z...Expect lighter southwest winds, 15-20 kts, each afternoon through Sunday. VFR conditions remain in place for Friday and Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Saturday night and into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Dry conditions remain in place each day with cooler temperatures. Gusty southwest winds return for Thursday afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Lighter winds are expected on Friday, 15 to 25 mph, with widespread 10 to 20% humidity in the afternoon. Saturday through Monday...Cooler with increasing moisture from the south through Monday. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains on Saturday then increasing and spreading northward through Monday. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph Saturday and Sunday...then increasing again on Monday with gusts to 35 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/MCT AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
559 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A downturn in convection on Thursday will transition the threat to critical fire weather conditions as dry and breezy conditions arrive. - A pattern shift late in the week will usher in a cooler and drier period before precipitation chances pick up again by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 259 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 A storm system currently impacting the Pacific Northwest will bring dry, windy weather to the region tomorrow. As the system approaches the northern Rockies, the nose of the upper-level jet slides across the northern half of the forecast area. This will result in stronger winds at the surface, especially during the afternoon hours when mixing is maximized. Gusts up to 35 to 45 mph are likely in valley locations, especially north of I-70. While this teeters on the edge of Wind Advisory criteria, confidence is not high enough to issue any wind-related products at this time. Confidence is higher for wind gusts up to 35-40 mph, but the HREF 90th percentile doesn`t have a strong signal for wind gusts over 45 mph. A dry-air push will accompany the stronger winds across much of the area leading to elevated to critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon, especially where fuels are very dry. As a result, a Red Flag Warning continues to be in effect for portions of eastern Utah and northwest Colorado tomorrow afternoon. Additionally, an uptick in haze and smoke is anticipated tonight into tomorrow as smoke form the wildfires in southern California advects into the region. The HRRR smoke model suggests that smoke aloft could lead to hazy skies area wide, while surface-layer smoke will primarily impact locations in eastern Utah. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 259 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 On Friday the system departs the region leaving zonal flow and weaker winds as well as dry conditions. Over the weekend another strong low pressure makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest. A pattern shift late in the week will usher in a cooler and drier period before precipitation chances pick up again by early next week.t. Meanwhile the remnants of a tropical system advect in from the south with help from a system approaching the Great Basin. By Sunday it looks to be efficient for showers and storms across the San Juans and Four Corners. On Monday the system gets closer and therefore the dynamics will start to drive the weather with more forcing in play. As a result chances for precipitation increase along with the wind. On Tuesday the low pressure clips northwest portions of the forecast area with a trailing cold front that eventually sweeps through at some point in the day. Precipitation ahead and along of the front is expected with a drying trend on Wednesday. Temperatures will drop with clouds and precip around and more especially behind the front. Snow levels may allow for some snow in the mountains, but those details are uncertain at this point. Models are hinting that another system may drop into the trough axis over the Great Basin and perhaps lift over our area late in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 535 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Winds aloft are increasing with the approaching system to the northwest that is kicking up some south to southeast winds at 10 gust 20 kts across the region overnight. Included Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) at KASE, KEGE and KHDN through the overnight, removing the LLWS about mid morning as the surface winds shift southwest. KRIL, KGJT, KMTJ and KTEX could also see LLWS between 06Z and 15Z, but confidence isn`t high at this time. Winds become southwest at 20-25 kts gusting 30-45 kts around 18Z that will last past 00Z Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 A strong early fall storm will be moving across the Northern Rockies tonight into Thursday. Winds will be increasing over eastern Utah and western Colorado on Thursday in response to this system and ahead of an advancing cold front dropping through Wyoming. Much drier air will also be pulled into the area...dropping afternoon humidity and leading to areas of critical fire weather conditions where fuels are in a ready to burn state. As a result Red Flag warnings have been issued for these areas with localized critical fire weather conditions also possible this afternoon over portions of southeast Utah. Gusty outflow winds with storms this afternoon will also be a concern along with new fire starts. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ200-202- 203-205. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ486-487- 490-491. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...DB FIRE WEATHER...15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
755 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds of 35-45 mph remain forecasted Thursday; portions of the area upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. - Potential weather system moving across the area next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 752 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 With relative humidity values increasing this evening above 15%, the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled for tonight. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions remain possible Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 139 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Western trough is starting to deepen as the winds have rapidly increased at the KGLD ASOS gusting to 29 knots thus far as of 18Z. The Red Flag Warning continues to remain on track wind wise; the main question will be if the RH values can fall to the 15% critical threshold. Even if they fail to very high to locally extreme fire danger will still be present across the area due to the favorable fuels. High temperatures continue to favor the 90th+ percentile NBM which has been the trend over the past few days which further increases my confidence that a fairly large area of 15% or less RH values can occur. Lingering cloud from morning showers across Yuma county currently has me a little concerned that not enough recovery can occur temperature and dew point wise but will leave the Red Flag Warning in effect for now. RAP 700-500mb moisture still remains fairly high across Kit Carson and Yuma county through the afternoon which still may remain supportive of another round of hit and miss high based storms with dry lightning potential which further supports leaving the Red Flag Warning in effect. This evening a subtle wave of energy from the trough will lead to thunderstorm development across the Front Range which will approach western portions of Yuma and Kit Carson counties. Some strong wind gusts of 50-55 mph may occur with this activity as it interacts with a developing low level jet across the region; this jet will also continue to keep the breezy winds throughout the night. Dry air will still remain in place at the surface so do have some questions if the potential for these winds will come from 1) outflow from the storms 2) dissipation from the storms 3) with storms themselves. Mid level moisture is currently favored across Yuma county so have nudged western portions of the area into the chance (25%) category for rainfall. Thursday still continues to present a tricky forecast. Confidence is high in wind gusts exceeding 35 mph across the area through the day. The trough will begin to lift northward across the Rockies, meanwhile from the SE a belt of stronger winds and higher dew points from the Gulf moves into the area. This will lead to the development of a dry line across the region. Unfortunately this still leads to uncertainty with the exact location of the dry line as finite details as when the trough begins to lift north and the orientation of the belt of stronger winds will be the overall determining factor of where the dry line sets up. Based on recent deterministic guidance, short term guidance and HREF suite confidence is there that dry line will set up along/near the Highway 385 corridor in E Colorado. Also in similar SW flow set ups dryer air typically does push a bit further east than what guidance suggests it will. As a result will upgrade Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado to a Red Flag Warning. Based on the anticipated push of dry air a bit further east and the feedback from fuel partners that fuels across NW Kansas are favorable for fire spread will also go ahead and upgrade the Highway 27 corridor (Dundy south through Greeley counties) to a Red Flag Warning based on the partner feedback, pattern recognition and Grassland Fire Danger Index values in the extreme category. As for the remainder of the inherited Fire Weather Watch (Hitchcock south through Wichita counties) will leave as a watch for this package as upcoming shifts will need to monitor for any potential shifts of the dry line. As for the blowing dust potential for Thursday it still continues to appear to be more of a conditional threat. Lapse rates including the 2-2.5km remain favorable for dust and for dust to be trapped in a layer. However the conditional threat will be if the winds will be strong enough to get the dust lofted in the first place as winds are around 5-10 knots below in office research criteria. As mentioned yesterday due to the prolonged well above normal temperatures and the dry conditions do think there is the potential for at least some to get lofted especially from open fields so have left the dust mention across NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Thursday evening, still continue to have suspicions that the strongest winds of the event will occur between 00z-06Z as a 3-5mb pressure rise moves across E Colorado. This is also supported as well on the HREF mean winds continuing to keep 35-45 mph winds across the area with some localized 50+ mph winds. GFS and RAP forecast soundings also do show some 60+ mph winds 1500-2000 feet off the ground. However with that flow moving in around the time the nocturnal inversion sets up my confidence is very low that 60+ mph winds will reach the surface. If this were to occur im thinking the Sherman, Kit Carson, Cheyenne (KS), Rawlins vicinity would be favored based off DESI probabilities and HREF winds. The winds will slowly subside after 1am MT, albeit still being breezy. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Broadly speaking, model certainty of a E CONUS blocking pattern that promotes a W CONUS mid-upper level trof. Beneath the E periphery and cyclonic flow through which disturbances are expected to advect over the region there are shower chances for Friday into the weekend then seemingly turning drier. An air of uncertainty given a faster, less amplified solution as preferred by the GEFS versus a slow, stronger pattern agreed upon between the ECens / UKmet / GEPS, the latter of which is the strongest ensemble solution. Then there`s the remnants of Francine progged to intensify and advect westward with the mean flow associated with the E CONUS block. Magnitude uncertain, yet it gives weight to the non-GEFS camp of keeping the W CONUS trof to the west. Even the 11.12z operation GFS buys into this outcome. So while there are shower chances Friday into the weekend with a lingering moisture set-up, the week ahead looks like a squeeze-play with the potential for warmer than average, drier conditions for the central Plains into the Midwest in-between competing systems driving in from opposite sides. The juxtaposition uncertain, will potentially be contending with fire weather concerns along with warmer than average temperatures through mid-September. So Friday through the weekend, a leading warm front that washes out into a lingering trof axis as a prominent vortmax thru the W CONUS mid-level trof lifts N into Canada. A pooling focus for continental- tropical moisture up against Francine`s remnants as SE winds prevail ushering in higher surface dewpoints, will see a daily decrease in westerly shear and increase in afternoon-evening instability. Friday looks to be the best day of organized activity as echoed by the SPC Day 3 thunderstorm outlook whereas the weekend could be similar to the activity witnessed over the past few days, diurnally-driven. Any activity is mostly expected to be sub-severe but that does not rule out the possibility of locally strong gusts. Into next week, the synoptic pattern uncertain, either precipitation chances or fire weather concerns are possible, perhaps a combination of both as we contend with today. Certainly the stronger advection of airmasses at the surface, likely an evolving dryline setup in our vicinity coupled with faster winds aloft mixing down to the surface with diurnal heating. However unknown is the evolution of mid-level disturbances and morphology of the W CONUS H3-7 trof as potentially tropical moisture is drawn N from Baja / Mexico as drier SW low-mid level flow follows. Humidity being the greater variable as breezy S winds are expected a majority of the time along the maintenance of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. An initial guess, wavering dryline in concert with a series of impulses ejecting through the base of the W CONUS trof, wet weather chances ahead (Tuesday), dry, fire weather potential follows (Wednesday). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 528 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Breezy southeast to south-southeast winds with gusts to ~30 kts are possible this evening are expected over both KMCK and KGLD as a trough deepens across the western CONUS. A strong LLJ will develop overnight crating LLWS of WS002 out of the south- southeast at 45-50 kts over each terminal again. The LLJ will remain across the area through the day Thursday leading to gusty to windy conditions across the area as gusts around 35 kts are forecasted for the remainder of the period after sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 752 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Portions of the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday have been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning with the exceptions of Hitchcock, Rawlins, Thomas, Logan and Wichita counties. There still remains uncertainty with the positioning of the dry line for Thursday afternoon which may keep RH values in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highest confidence in critical fire weather conditions being met are across E Colorado. The Highway 27 corridor (Dundy down through Greeley counties) were upgraded due to high confidence in mid teen to low 20 RH values and consistent wind gusts up to 45 mph through the afternoon. Even though the 15% critical threshold may not be met, given feedback from fuel partners fuels are ready to burn. Extreme values of the Grassland Fire Danger Index are also being seen on these conditions as well to further support explosive fire development and spread. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-013-027-041. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ002-014-028-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ079. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ080. && $$ UPDATE...KMK SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Sipprell AVIATION...KMK FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
601 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The remnants of Hurricane Francine will lift across portions of the mid Mississippi Valley late this week with occasional showers Thursday night through Sunday. Probability for exceeding an inch of rain between Thursday night and Saturday night is roughly 40-60 percent south of I-70. East/Southeast winds will peak Friday with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. - Hazy conditions from smoke aloft will linger over the region through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Overall pattern can be characterized by upper level split flow currently in place evolving into a Rex Block this weekend into next week as the remnants of Francine lift to portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This afternoon, high pressure is centered over the New England Coast with expansive area of ridging extending back across the Midwest. To our south, Hurricane Francine is located off the Louisiana coast. Surface ridging will continue to keep fair weather conditions in place across central Illinois through the day Thursday, though cloud cover will be increasing from the south as Francine lifts across the lower Mississippi River Valley. Temps will be similar to today across much of central Illinois, and few degrees lower in the south due to the cloud cover. Expect highs generally in the mid 80s across the area. Aloft, weak flow is in place with the jet stream displaced well to our north allowing some smokey haze to linger over the region. HRRR suggests this will continue to linger through much of the day tomorrow before shifting off to the northwest ahead of Francine. Thursday night through Saturday, the remnants of Hurricane Francine will stall over the mid Mississippi Valley (in the vicinity of Memphis) with several waves of precipitation pushing north across portions of southern into central Illinois. NBM mean 72-hour QPF amounts through Saturday night range from around a quarter inch near Galesburg to one inch along the I-70 corridor and pushing 1.5 inches across the far southeastern counties. Probability for exceeding an inch of rain is 40-60 percent south of I-70 while the probability of exceeding a quarter inch ranged from roughly 50 percent along the I-72 corridor to 90 percent in the far southeast. East to southeast winds will also pick up at times, especially Friday afternoon. There is up to around a 40 percent chance for gusts exceeding 25 mph Friday afternoon along and south of I-72. Meanwhile, as the upper low slowly fills this weekend, a Rex Block pattern is expected to develop over the eastern CONUS while heat builds back across the Great Plains under a strengthening upper ridge. While the hottest conditions remain just off to our west, temps are expected to return back above normal locally with highs in the mid to upper 80s through the first half of next week. There will be some occasional precip chances as the upper low to our southeast retrogrades. Model differences in timing result in broad-brushed low PoPs in the forecast early next week. Deubelbeiss && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 VFR skies and east to southeast winds near/under 10 kt through Thursday afternoon. 25 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
922 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall from Hurricane Francine likely late Thursday night into Friday across southern Indiana, northern extent remains uncertain. - Cooler weather with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the weekend - Highs in the 80s next week && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Clear skies continue across central Indiana this evening as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. Already there was a wide variance in temperatures after sunset ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Quiet weather continues with dry air across the region. An infusion of deeper subsidence ahead of the advancing cirrus shield from Francine has lifted into the Ohio Valley and will aid in maintaining mostly clear skies for the forecast area overnight. The leading fringes of cirrus expanding from the south will rise into southern parts of the Hoosier state late tonight but more expansive high level cloud cover will hold off until late day Thursday. Excellent scenario for radiational cooling again tonight with light easterly flow. Lows will vary from the lower 50s in our normal cool spots to the lower 60s over south central Indiana. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Today and Tonight Quiet are expected to continue through the day, as the surface high pressure that has dominated the weather pattern for the last few days continues remain near. Winds will become more consistently out of the SE with the pressure gradient steepening upon the approach of Hurricane Francine. Slightly elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon as dew points are again expected to drop into the low 40s. This will combine with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to bring RH values as low as 15-20 percent, especially across the southwestern counties where the ongoing drought conditions are leading to lower afternoon dew points. Fuels will remain moist enough to combine with the calm winds to limit the overall fire danger, but an increased threat for smaller fires will be active this afternoon and evening. HRRR smoke and visible satelitte output shows an elevated layer of smoke over most of the Midwest. No surface impacts are expected, but this will continue to create some opaqueness in the cloud cover and more picturesque sunsets. Tomorrow... Much of the same is expected tomorrow as high pressure remains over the northern Ohio Valley. There will be a few changes however, as the remnants of TS Francine approach from the south. The aforementioned high will act to suppress the warm core low`s northward progression, but there still likely be some upper level spiral bands that reach central Indiana by mid day providing SCT to BKN cloud decks. By the evening, most of central Indiana will likely be beneath BKN to OVC cloud decks. With most of the cloud cover arriving in the mid afternoon and later, temperature impacts are likely to be minimal. Still, a few degrees of temperature decrease are expected versus usual for this type of air mass with a more uniform afternoon high of 84-87F across the region. Any precipitation is expected to be delayed until the overnight hours (See next section). && .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Thursday night into Friday... Model consensus is that the remnants of Francine will stall well southwest of central Indiana, thanks in part to an upper high across the Great Lakes. Moisture from the remnants will work into central Indiana mainly later Thursday night and then into Friday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure to the northeast of the area will continue to influence central Indiana with a dry easterly flow. With the remnants well southwest of central Indiana, decent forcing will be confined to the southwestern portions of the area. This forcing and the available moisture will produce rain across the southwest, so will go likely or higher PoPs across the southwestern 1/4 to 1/3 of the area late Thursday night into Friday. Farther northeast, the drier easterly flow will create a sharp cutoff to the rain, with that cutoff likely being near the I-74 corridor. Will have a sharper gradient to the PoPs to the northeast of the likely PoPs. Rainfall amounts through Friday could reach around an inch in the extreme southwest part of central Indiana, with amounts quickly tapering off to the northeast. Rain and clouds will keep temperatures in the 70s for much of the area Friday, with some lower 80s expected in the north and northeast. Saturday into Sunday... Lingering moisture from the remnants will linger into the weekend, mainly across southern and western portions of the area. Weak upper troughing will be near this area. Thus, wouldn`t be surprised to see some isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly west and south. Will have some low PoPs in these areas, with the lowest PoPs on Sunday as forcing continues to weaken. Highs in the 80s will return to most areas Saturday and for all areas on Sunday. Monday and beyond... Uncertainty ramps up more early next week. First, questions remain about potential pop up convection with some lingering moisture around Monday. Not sure if any convection will be around though, especially with surface high pressure nudging in from the northeast. Next, a weakening potential tropical system will move inland from off the East Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Models try to have the system survive its trek across the mountains and potentially bring rain to central Indiana by Wednesday. Confidence is low in this scenario at the moment. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 623 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Impacts: - Gusts to near 20kts possible Thursday afternoon Discussion: A large area of high pressure remains draped across the region with mainly clear skies and a continued haze from smoke in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The high will slowly shift east into Thursday as Francine makes landfall on the northern Gulf coast this evening and gradually tracks north into northern Mississippi by late day Thursday. Deep subsidence ahead of the hurricane will overspread the area tonight and most of Thursday and keep skies mainly clear across central Indiana. An increase in high level clouds from the tropical system will begin to expand into the region by later in the afternoon into the evening. The approach of the remnants of Francine should aid in pushing the stagnant smoke layer over the Ohio Valley out of the area to the northwest on Thursday. Surface winds will increase from the E/SE as the day progresses with gusts up to 20kts at times. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...Ryan SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...Ryan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
856 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will maintain control across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the weekend. Mid and high level clouds will increase across the area Thursday into Friday as onshore flow increases with the remnant moisture from Hurricane Francine working into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. An area of low pressure will likely develop off the Southeast Coast and move toward the Carolinas early next week bringing renewed chances for beneficial rainfall across the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Overall, no real wholesale changes to the forecast outside of temperatures, cloud cover, and the risk for patchy fog overnight into early Thursday morning. High pressure will continue to push off the New England coast tonight as Hurricane Francine lifts north from the central Louisiana Coast into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. A few high clouds from this system have been noted earlier this afternoon and evening although they are few and far between. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with just a few passing high clouds streaming through. Winds will remain light to calm leading to some patchy fog in the typical river/sheltered valley locations across central VA and west of the Blue Ridge, and east of US- 15.Overnight lows will be in the 50s for most, with lower 60s in downtown DC/Baltimore. For Thursday, expect an increase and mid and high level cirrus as Francine pushes further north into the mid-Mississippi River Valley and onshore easterly flow increases as strengthening high pressure wedges south down the eastern Appalachians. Have lowered temperatures by a degree or two compared to today with warmer readings along and north of I-66/US-50 and slightly cooler conditions further south where the cloud cover will be a bit more prevalent. Highs will range from the 60s and 70s over the mountains with low to mid 80s elsewhere across the region. Dry conditions will prevail with a continued increase in cloud cover heading into Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain anchored off the New England Coast through Friday night with a ridge of high pressure continuing to extend southwestward from the high across the Mid-Atlantic. Further to the west, the remnants of Francine are forecast by NHC to slowly move northward through the lower Mississippi River Valley, before its northward progress is eventually halted in the vicinity of the bootheel of MO by a strong blocking upper ridge to the north over the Great Lakes. After a mostly sunny start Thursday, some high cirrus on the northeastern periphery of the system will begin to work into southwestern portions of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. These cirrus clouds will eventually expand further northward Thursday night into the day Friday. Some lower clouds may also try to form within easterly low-level flow later Thursday night into Friday morning. Despite the increasing cloud cover, mainly dry conditions are expected to continue overall. Highs are forecast to be in the low 80s for most on both Thursday and Friday, with mid-upper 70s in the mountains. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s and lower 60s as dewpoints start to increase slightly. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure centered over the Northeast will keep conditions dry and mild Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures each day will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with highest elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s for most. Precipitation chances return to the forecast area at the start of next week as guidance indicates a possible low developing off the coast of the Carolinas. High temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the 70s for most. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least early Monday morning next week. Latest guidance (GLAMP, NAMNest, WRF-ARW, RAP and HRRR) continue to indicate the potential for MVFR to IFR fog in the typical sheltered/river valley locations between 07Z-13Z as moisture gradually increases on light easterly flow around high pressure off the New England coast. Highest confidence for fog will be at KCHO/KMRB with vsbys running 3-5SM. Slightly lower confidence for fog at KIAD and KBWI with vsbys noted in the TAF package between 5-6SM. Mid and high level clouds will increase Thursday into Friday with periods of mid level clouds and perhaps a few bouts of low clouds Friday into the weekend. Little to no precipitation is expected with a spotty shower/sprinkle south of KCHO/KSHD. Sub-VFR conditions will likely increase Monday Tuesday next week as an area of low pressure pushes north from the southeast U.S into the coastal Carolinas. && .MARINE... Winds will generally remain light with increase easterly onshore flow Thursday sometime fluctuating between southeast and northeast Friday into Saturday.The gradient may strengthen enough to result in near SCA level gusts over the wider waters off southern MD at times Thursday night through Friday night, with a bit higher potential Saturday night into Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light onshore flow will likely cause tidal anomalies to increase gradually over the next few days. This may bring sensitive sites like Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront close to minor flooding. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EST NEAR TERM...EST SHORT TERM...DHOF/KJP LONG TERM...AVS AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/EST MARINE...AVS/DHOF/EST TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1042 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 948 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Heavy rainfall of up to 4 inches has been observed along the Treasure Coast this evening. Additional showers offshore from the Cape northward are drifting into the coast. Expect showers and isolated lightning storms to persist through the overnight hours along the coast. Heavy rainfall will remain a threat, with the HRRR continuing to show a convergence band setting up somewhere along the Brevard County coast through sunrise. Rainfall accumulations to around 4+" will be possible from any training or slow moving showers or storms. Remember, flooding can be hard to see during the day, but impossible to see at night. Use caution on the roads. Some drift inland cannot be ruled out overnight, but the highest chances remain along the coast. Overnight lows are forecast in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 MVFR conditions prevailing at times overnight, as a stalled boundary remains draped over the local area. VCSH/SHRA will persist this evening area-wide, with continuing SHRA along the coast overnight from TIX southward. CIGs BKN020 will remain possible. High shower chances again for Thursday, with VCTS in the afternoon (after around 19Z). Onshore flow through the period around 10kts or less. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Thru tonight...Frontal boundary remains draped across central FL and the adjacent Atlc. Tighter pressure gradient north of the front will produce 15-20 knots of East wind across the northern (Volusia) waters and 12-15 knots across the Brevard waters. South of the front over the Treasure coast waters, SE to S winds will be around 10 knots. Seas up to 6 ft offshore Volusia this afternoon will expand to include nearshore Volusia and offshore Brevard so the Caution headline will expand accordingly. High rain chances last through late week before decreasing later in the weekend. Caution headline will likely be needed offshore into Thu then decreasing seas below 5 ft Fri. Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast Sat though there will be a north wind around 10 knots. By Sunday, conditions deteriorate esp over the Gulf Stream as seas build 5-7 ft with NNE winds 10-15 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 87 76 89 / 70 60 20 60 MCO 76 89 76 91 / 40 60 10 70 MLB 77 89 76 90 / 70 60 30 60 VRB 75 90 76 91 / 70 60 30 60 LEE 76 89 76 90 / 30 60 10 70 SFB 76 87 76 89 / 40 60 20 70 ORL 77 90 77 91 / 40 60 10 70 FPR 75 90 76 91 / 70 60 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Leahy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1045 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal high temperatures will persist through the weekend into early next week. Normal highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s. - A few showers and thunderstorms are possible (10-20% PoPs) Friday night and Saturday. Staying dry is the most likely outcome. - Transition to a wetter, southwesterly flow pattern next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Temps this afternoon have pushed above climatological norms with numbers ranging from 84 to 89F as of 3 PM. Upper 70s to low 80s would be more representative of mid-September. Although cloudless, skies are a bit milky this afternoon with some elevated wildfire smoke at about 3,000 to 6,000 feet with RAP forecasts suggesting that smoke will tend to meander north on the low level southerly winds. Expect bluer skies for Thursday. The mid-Missouri River valley is under a small upper-level ridge with a cutoff low pushing into the PNW and Hurricane Francine pushing into ArkLaTex. Expect the northwestern trof to produce some accumulating snow over the higher elevations of west Montana through Thursday while the remnants of Francine push north-northeast into Missouri by Friday. Have kept PoPs generally under 15% for the weekend despite the area being influenced by both systems by then. Expect the greatest impact will be increased cloud cover by Saturday leaving it slightly cooler than the remainder of the forecast period, though still a few degrees warmer than climo. Temps rebound Sunday and remain above average for next week. The next best chance of precipitation may wait til midweek next week when a cut-off low ejects from the California coast toward the area in southwest steering flow. Global deterministic models indicate the trof will push through the central CONUS with an increasingly negative tilt which could produce strong thunderstorms or heavier precipitation. Worth noting that WPC has highlighted this forecast area as having a "slight risk" of high winds and high precipitation for days 8 and 9. Pattern recognition endorses this outlook. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail as calm weather continues. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue. Winds are expected to increase above 12 kts by 15-17Z with gusts up to 21 to 26 kts possible. The strongest winds will be at KOFK. Winds are expected to calm below 12 kts at KOMA and KLNK by 00-02Z. Clear skies will persist, though lingering wildfire smoke at 3,000 to 6,000 feet will gradually clear up through Thursday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Wood
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
809 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy conditions persist through the night for much of the area and a Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning are in place. Smoke from wildfires in southern California will continue to flow into the forecast area, bringing periods of reduced visibility and smoky skies. The next opportunity for thunderstorms may arrive early next week. && .UPDATE...Gusty winds were reported this afternoon across the region. Many areas reported gusts of 25 to 35 MPH with higher gusts to around 40 MPH reported in the western Mojave Preserve and the Barstow as well as in the Sierra terrain. As the sunsets, winds have been diminishing outside of the Barstow, CA area where gusts to 40 MPH continued. This trend will continue through the night with winds dropping off but impactful gusts to around 40 MPH in the western Mojave Desert. A wind advisory continues through early Thursday morning for the area where winds will likely stay up through the night. The Red Flag Warning will expire at 11PM which looks good based on the current wind trends slowly fall below levels where fire danger would be a significant concern. Smoke from wildfires continues to stream into region. Winds aloft have turn more west to southwest so the plume of smoke stretched across southern Nevada has shifted slightly east. Haze and occasional visibility reductions have been reported in the Morongo Basin and Yucca Valley this evening where satellite showed the most intense and smoke plume was most robust. The HRRR smoke model shows this trend of the most dense smoke moving into the southern Colorado River Valley and Arizona tonight. Smoke will still hang over parts of southern Nevada though which will result in hazy skies at times tonight into Thursday morning. -Nickerson- && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...148 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday A low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest will move east into the Intermountain West tonight and tomorrow. A tight pressure gradient will result in gusty southerly to southwesterly winds through tonight, warranting a Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for sections of Nevada and Arizona, and a Wind Advisory for western San Bernardino County until 4 AM PDT Thursday. Winds decrease going into tomorrow morning as the trough tracks northeast and the pressure gradient relaxes. Lighter winds are expected to last through Friday. However, westerly to southwesterly flow will continue to funnel smoke from the Line, Airport, and Bridge fires in Southern California into the forecast area. Near surface smoke will remain in Clark, Mohave, and San Bernardino Counties through Thursday night per the 12Z HRRR smoke model, bringing reduced air quality, lower visibility, and smoky skies. The heaviest smoke should move into southern San Bernardino and Mohave Counties starting tonight with a push of westerly winds. Temperatures decrease on Thursday following the passage of a surface cold front associated with the trough. Zonal flow on Friday will help maintain near average temperatures. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday The interesting / least confident part of the forecast comes late- weekend into the start of next week. There continues to be an indication among ensemble members that tropical moisture will push northward up the Gulf of California over the weekend. There are a lot of variables to consider before deciding if this will have any direct impact on the forecast area, as models remain uncertain how organized this moisture will become as it pushes northward as well as what exact track it will take. That said, the NHC has formally noted this tropical disturbance off the western coast of Mexico by Colima with a 40% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Both the ECMWF ensemble and GEFS means show an associated increase in PWATs up the Colorado River Valley on Sunday and Monday, with the NBM subsequently increasing PoPs over Mohave County Sunday and the southern Great Basin and eastern Mojave Desert on Monday. That said, the ECMWF ensemble mean is not as enthused about bringing moisture as far north as Las Vegas as it was 24 hours ago. Timing will be key in this scenario as an additional trough will usher dry air into the southwestern United States late Monday into early Tuesday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds with occasional gusts to 30kts can be expected into this evening. Winds will decrease below 15kts overnight before shifting to the northwest Thursday morning between 14Z and 16Z. Winds may initially gust to 25kts with the wind shift, but speeds should decrease below 12kts by 20Z Thursday. Reduced visibilities to as low as 4SM due to smoke from the wildfires over Southern California will continue to move over the valley into tonight. While some occasional improvement to 6SM or greater is possible this afternoon and evening, the smoke is not expected to clear the area until after 16Z Thursday when the northwest winds move into the valley. Above the smoke layer near the surface, mainly clear skies with only FEW high clouds are expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty south-to-west winds are expected at most regional TAF sites into tonight, with the strongest winds anticipated across the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, and in the Owens Valley, including KBIH. Speeds will decrease by Thursday morning with directions shifting to the northwest across northern areas of the region by late morning. Reduced visibilities to as low as 4SM due to smoke from the wildfires over Southern California will continue to move over Southern Nevada, Southeast California, and Northwest Arizona. While occasional improvement to 6SM or greater is possible this afternoon and evening, the smoke is not expected to clear northern areas until after 16Z Thursday. Southern areas, including KDAG, KEED, and KIFP, will see the smoke persist. Above the smoke layer near the surface, mainly clear skies with only FEW high clouds are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER...The Red Flag Warning was extended to 11 PM PST/MST given a 50 to 80 percent chance of reaching criteria between 8 PM and 11 PM. Winds should relax later overnight, lessening the threat. Dry conditions remain with the next opportunity for thunderstorms arriving early next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Meltzer LONG TERM...Soulat AVIATION...Planz FIRE WEATHER...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter