Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/04/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
659 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and windy (15 to 30 mph southerly winds) continues tonight
region-wide.
- Two wind shifts on Wednesday will bring a 15 to 30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) of severe storms
remains in place Wednesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
Smoke remains, mainly aloft, thickest near and just behind the
surface low currently set up over western SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
At 2 PM CDT, skies are clear; a little smoky, but clear.
Temperatures are warming through the 80s and into the 90s for some
locations out over central South Dakota. South winds 15 to 25 with
gusts up to 35 mph are happening.
The return flow pressure gradient in place over the region will hang
on tonight as a pre-frontal trof/weak cold front pushes into the
Missouri River valley by 12Z Wednesday. There will also be a
stronger cold front pushing down out of Canada on Wednesday that
will eventually catch up to/overtake this pre-frontal surface
feature by Wednesday evening. Behind the north to south moving cold
front, moderately strong low level CAA/dry air advection will ensue
for Wednesday night.
The pre-frontal trof may not be strong enough to force convective
initiation over the central/eastern two-thirds of the CWA during
peak heating. Seems available instability/deep layer shear may be
somewhat limited (~1000J/kg CAPE and ~10-20 knots 0-6km bulk shear)
with this first wind-shift. In this kind of environment, pulse to
multi-cellular convection would be the most likely storm-type. The
RAP (and to a lesser extent the NAM) model has been suggesting
between 1000-1500J/kg CAPE will be around ahead of the second,
stronger frontal passage, along with some higher deep-layer shear
values (25-40 knots). This would certainly support the potential for
multi-cell to super-cell type storms along this southward-sagging
shift of wind Wednesday evening, provided there is adequate
forcing/lift along the boundary. General storm motion appears to
take any storms that develop on that secondary front and run them
west to east right down the frontal boundary, as the boundary sinks
southward (eventual linear structure?) But, first, there have to be
some storms develop. So, other than some low-end PoPs for convection
on these two boundaries on Wednesday, the short term is dry.
The boundary layer will be charged with warm air from all these
southerly winds/low level WAA as the period opens tonight. The pre-
frontal trof on Wednesday is not expected to make much of dent in
temperatures, even though low level thermal progs do show
925hpa/850hpa temperatures decreasing a couple of degrees. It`s the
cold air advection that arrives after the second frontal passage
Wednesday evening/night that will be quite noticeable.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Clusters and deterministic models are fairly consistent with a
ridge over SD during the duration of the long term forecast with
shortwaves moving along the ridge contours suggesting a mostly dry
forecast. There are a few shortwaves however, the first is moving
east out of SD Thursday with the clusters showing another one trying
to move through Sunday evening, though models vary on timing and
strength of the Sunday shortwave. At the start of the forecast
period, high pressure is moving in, however, models do keep an area
of both mid-level moisture and vorticity advection over SD,
potentially resulting in some precipitation lingering into Thursday
afternoon and Friday. However there is not much agreement in the
models on the timing/location or if there will be any precipitation
during this time, as the NBM is dry, on the other hand, the NAM
BUFKIT profiles hint at the potential for low level instability, so
we can`t rule out some shallow convection over eastern SD.
There is a transition in temperatures during the long-term forecast,
as cooler temperatures warm to above average temperatures around the
beginning of the work week. On Thursday, 850mb are experiencing
cold air advection, with low-level northwest winds. Thus,
temperatures will be around 10 degrees colder than average, and
this persists through Saturday. As the low level flow starts to
shift more southerly, warmer air starts to be advected into
central and eastern SD. This causes temperature at the surface to
warm to be around average for a couple of days and then be about
10 degrees above average at the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24
hours. Winds will remain breezy with gusts out of the south
20-30kts through much of the night. Winds will switch out of the
west to northwest at MBG/PIR by 13Z Wednesday, ABR around 19Z,
and ATY around or shortly before 00Z Thursday. There is a 20-30%
chance of showers or thunderstorms during the daytime hours,
highest at MBG. Still, the chance is low enough to not be included
in the TAF at this point.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...Vernon/Connelly
AVIATION...KF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonable conditions will persist through Wednesday
with high temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s.
- Showers and isolated storms for Thursday with highest chances
(40-70%) for precipitation along and north of I-90.
Additional lingering showers will be possible (15-30%) on
Friday.
- Unseasonably cool temperatures expected by Friday and into the
weekend with high temperatures generally in the 60s. Overnight
low temperatures will be in the upper 30s and 40s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Rest of Today - Wednesday: Dry & Seasonable Conditions
Seasonable temperatures with relatively dry conditions continue
through through Wednesday with a progressively flattening upper-
level ridge moving eastward into our region over the next couple of
days. As this occurs, very weak warm air advection will aid in
nudging our temperatures up slightly through Wednesday with highs
reaching into the 70s and lower 80s. With surface high pressure
pulling well off to the east of the local area, a somewhat tighter
pressure gradient combined with diurnal mixing during the afternoon
will increase our surface winds during the afternoon hours today
and Wednesday to around 10-20 mph with higher gusts possible in
unsheltered areas of northeast IA/southeast MN. Smoke aloft
will move around the periphery of the upper-level ridge
throughout today and Wednesday, bringing some hazy skies north
of I-90 with it as shown in the 03.12z HRRR vertically
integrated smoke fields. However, there is little indication
that this smoke would approach the surface.
Thursday: Showers and Isolated Storms, Highest Chances North of
I-90
As we head into Thursday, a broad upper-level trough diving out of
central Canada will dictate our weather late this week and into
the weekend. As it swings south, a surface cold front will push
through the region providing lift for showers and isolated
storms throughout the daytime hours. For much of the region, the
threat for any storms appears low and isolated in nature as the
timing of the frontal passage favors during the morning and
early afternoon hours where instability is minimal (under 500
J/kg in the 03.12z NAM/GFS). One thing that could be worth
watching is with a fairly strong 925mb jet in the 03.15z RAP as
the front pushes southeast into the region early Thursday
morning. Consequently, any showers that can tap into this could
produce some gusty winds. Additionally, as the front approaches
portions of northeast IA and southwestern Wisconsin during the
evening, the 03.12z NAM tries to paint some better MLCAPE
(1000-1500 J/kg) south of a general line from Oelwein, IA to
Richland Center, WI. As a result, would say that probabilities
for storms increase later into the evening in this general
location but this would likely be for a very narrow window
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Overall, rainfall
amounts still appear relatively steady state across ensemble
guidance with the EC ensemble favoring higher probabilities
(70-90%) for over 0.1" north of I-90 and lower south (50-70%).
The 03.12z GEFS contrasts this heavily with very minimal
probabilities (0-30%) for 0.1" or greater across our area but
still has very high (60-90%) probabilities for measurable
precipitation.
Friday - Sunday: Unseasonably Cool With Lingering Rain Chances
Heading into late week and the weekend, the aforementioned broad
upper-level trough amplifies southward and becomes a closed low in
the vicinity of the Great Lakes. As this occurs, strong
north/northwesterly flow will aid strong cold air advection to push
into our region. With the descending trough providing rapid cooling
aloft, steep mid-level rates will allow for some diurnal instability
to be in place. With this overall setup in place, diurnal showers
seem plausible across portions of central and north-central
Wisconsin where mid-level lapse rates are steepest on Friday. Shower
potential for Saturday appears less certain with deterministic
guidance favoring developing surface high pressure into the region
as the upper-low pulls east in combination with low precipitable
water values of around 0.5".
The larger story with this pattern though will be the unseasonably
cool temperatures with the cold air advection regime that our region
gets subjected to into the weekend. High temperatures from Friday
through Sunday in the 03.00z grand ensemble (GEFS/EC
ensemble/Canadian ensemble) generally have median high temperatures
across our region in the 60s. Saturday is trending to be the coolest
day at the moment as probabilities for surface temperature anomalies
of 10 degrees or more below normal are very high (70-100%) in the
03.06z EC ensemble. Morning low temperatures for both Saturday and
Sunday will be chilly for this time of year with the current
deterministic NBM painting anywhere from the upper 30s to middle
40s. If surface high pressure is able to manifest for either morning
and result in calm winds and clearing skies, cooler morning
temperatures may be possible as shown in the lower percentile groups
of the NBM which may result in localized frost formation. Needless
to say, will certainly be the coolest airmass we have seen thus far.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
CIGS: SKC/SCT conditions continue through Wednesday, with some
milkiness to the skies from wildfire smoke. CIGS will likely hold
off until Thu with the passage of an upper level trough/cold front
(could drop into MVFR for a few hours).
WX/vsby: low level winds off the sfc look to stir through the
overnight hours (15+ kts by 500 ft), working against any river fog
working onto KLSE. Otherwise, the next shot for rain (40-50%) comes
Thu with the passage of the aforementioned low pressure system.
However, higher chances currently lie north of KRST/KLSE.
WINDS: light south/southeast through the night time hours with a
more southerly fetch and uptick in speeds Wed. Daytime mixing will
promote gusts around 20 kts.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION.....Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
850 PM MDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms across the west-central
Idaho mountains have ended with mostly clear skies across the
area. High pressure building aloft will bring a warming trend
through the end of the week with lower valleys likely to climb
back into the 90s by Thursday and Friday. However, smoke may
take a couple degrees off of high temperatures. The HRRR model
has not fully captured smoke across the area from a plume that
was generated from fires in central Oregon yesterday. However,
it does indicate continued smoke transport into the valleys
from wildfires in central Idaho Wednesday and Thursday as winds
become light and more easterly. Otherwise, skies will be mostly
sunny through Friday. No updates this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...Low VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR and local LIFR from
smoke. Cloud cover decreasing overnight as showers move east.
Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt overnight, becoming N-W 5-15
kt by Wed/16Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt.
KBOI...Low VFR and MVFR due to smoke. Smoke coverage is expected to
increase on Wednesday, reducing visibility to IFR. SE surface winds
up to 10 kt expected after midnight, becoming NW 8-12 kt late
Wednesday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Showers and
thunderstorms over the w-central Idaho mountains this afternoon
will dissipate around sunset. The thunderstorms will be capable
of producing outflow wind gusts to 40 mph. This activity is
associated with an upper trough that will exit the region
tonight, being replaced by a dry, stable high pressure aloft on
Wednesday and Thursday. Along with warmer temperatures this
pattern will bring light winds surface and aloft impacting
mixing and smoke transport from the large number of wildfires
across eastern Oregon and western Idaho. Because of this, expect
much of the smoke output to settle into valleys through
Thursday. Besides impacting air quality, the smoke will likely
take a few degrees off of high temperature potential.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...High pressure aloft peaks
on Friday with temperatures above normal. The ridge axis shifts
east on Saturday as an upper trough swings into northern CA.
The increased moisture and instability/lift ahead of this low
will support a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon across SE Oregon and higher terrain south of the
Snake Plain in Idaho. While Saturday night is currently marked
dry, will need to watch the low for the potential to extend
that coverage further north and east. Sunday and Monday are
mostly dry with increasing southwesterly flow aloft as an upper
trough approaches the Pac NW coast. Low chances for
showers/storms persist across higher terrain of south-central
Idaho where moisture and instability overlap. Tuesday will see
an uptick in the chance for afternoon showers/storms as the
trough digs along the coast. While ensemble guidance is painting
a broad area of low chance precipitation (20% or less) there
are signs of a dry slot on the east side of the trough which
could limit development. For now there is too much uncertainty
to pin down that detail. Temperatures are forecast to be well
above normal through the weekend, though mtn valleys and
possible larger valleys will continue to struggle with
mixing/heating due to wildfire smoke.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise
DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
801 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain control through Thursday night while
slowly shifting east off the New England coast. A strong cold
front crosses Friday night into Saturday as low pressure drifts
through the northern Great Lakes through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track for tonight. Only change was to reduce
the cloud cover in the southern counties as the cirrus remains
thin. Smoke has also been noted on satellite imagery upstream
across Wisconsin and northern Lower Michigan this evening. Smoke
is in the upper levels of the atmosphere so while not expected
to cause air quality problems at the surface, may result in a
bit of haze in some areas tomorrow. The HRRR projects this to
move across NE Ohio during the day tomorrow.
Previous discussion...High pressure will be in control though
will gradually shift east over the next 36 hours, maintaining
dry and quiet weather as temperatures moderate amid gradual
return flow. Lows tonight will generally range from the mid 40s
to mid 50s. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the upper 70s in
far northeast OH and northwest PA and into the low to mid 80s
across the rest of the area. Lows Wednesday night will generally
dip into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper air pattern changes dramatically during this period as the
flattening upper ridge is replaced by a rapidly deepening upper
trough that is expected to move into the Great Lakes for the
weekend. The deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS are rather
similar in the timing of the associated cold front that is expected
to cross the region late Friday afternoon and night. With a digging
trough which is becoming more negatively tilted there should be a
band of showers and storms along the front. The return flow ahead of
the front may not tap the gulf so QPF amounts may be limited to less
than an inch.
Before the frontal passage, temperatures will warm above normal as
850 mb temperatures increase to the 16-18C range which should
support surface temperatures mainly in the 80s.
Thursday and Thursday night will remain dry. The chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase from west to east on Friday as the
front approaches the region. Near categorical POPs can be expected
Friday night in the eastern half of the CWA with chance POPs in the
west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper trough will dominate the weather during this period as it
slowly moves east through the eastern Great Lakes to Quebec on
Tuesday.
The surface cold front will moves east of the area Saturday morning
and sweep much of the precipitation with it by afternoon. A few
showers could linger in the snowbelt east of Cleveland in the
afternoon as temperatures aloft drop to 3-5C at 850 mb. Another
short wave will rotate around the upper trough on Sunday and that
may produce scattered showers mainly over northwest PA Sunday and
Sunday night. High pressure will gradually build into the area
Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures over the weekend will be in
the 60s with a warming trend next week. Highs on Tuesday will range
from 70-80.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure over western New York and Pennsylvania will
maintain dry conditions with mostly clear skies through the TAF
period. The airmass remains dry so not expecting patchy fog
tonight. Winds will be 10 knots or less through the period,
starting as northeasterly this evening and veering to easterly
overnight. Most sites will trend towards southeasterly on
Wednesday but lake breezes off Lake Erie are expected at
TOL/CLE/ERI during the afternoon.
Outlook...VFR expected through Thursday. Non-VFR will be
possible in showers Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the region will gradually shift east to the mid
Atlantic coast on Thursday. Light east to northeast winds will
become southeast to southerly at 10-15 knots on Thursday. A cold
front will cross the lake Friday night. Cold advection behind the
front will allow stronger winds aloft to mix to the lake surface
Friday night and Saturday. A SCA will likely be needed into Sunday
as winds increase to the 15-25 knot range or slightly higher. Waves
in the 4-6 foot range are possible. The pressure gradient will relax
early next week as high pressure builds into the region.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...KEC/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...LaPlante
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LaPlante
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1113 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
*High pressure will maintain cloud-free skies, pleasant
afternoons, and chilly nights through Thursday.
*Increasing clouds on Friday will precede a wet and potentially stormy
Saturday.
*A cold front will usher in a return to fall-like temperatures
and tranquil weather Sunday into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Another crisp and pleasant evening underway across the
Commonwealth with high pressure overhead and anomalously cool
temperatures. Persistence is generally a good forecast in this
type of pattern. As such, expecting fog across the northern
river valleys of PA again tonight with relatively unchanged
air-water temperature differences. Low temperatures trend
several degrees warmer in the northwest mountains with high
pressure no longer directly overhead, but it still -5 to -10F
compared to average for this time of year across the region.
Bradford and parts of northwest PA will likely make a run at the
upper 30s tonight, but frost is not as much of a concern tonight
thanks to a few degree uptick in temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through Thursday, which means
mostly sunny afternoons with pleasant humidity. We continue to
lean below NBM dewpoints, which are usually too high when very
dry air is present above a weak inversion. High pressure will
continue to drift east, with winds taking on a southerly
component. As such, day over day trends will be +2 or +3
degrees. Morning valley fog looks likely again on Thursday,
though the coverage may be more expansive thanks to slightly
higher dewpoints across the southern tier.
With upper ridging overhead, northwesterly flow aloft will bring
wildfire smoke over Pennsylvania again for the next couple of
days. Latest HRRR guidance brings a fairly thick plume of smoke
(all aloft, no near-surface impacts) across the area during the
morning on Wednesday. Milky skies and colorful sunsets will
likely persist until Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still looks like showers and a few storms from late Friday
into early Sunday, with most of the activity on Saturday.
Temperatures not quite as warm now, as they look like they
could be a few days ago.
Timing similar to earlier today, but faster than a few days
ago. With the upper level trough not closing off or going
negative, cold front should not stall out.
For early next week, a similar setup and airmass to what we
have now. Lots of sun and temperatures close to what we have
now. Lake effect clouds will be expeccted once again early on
across the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the region will result in clear skies and
light winds through Wednesday. Patchy fog is expected to form in
the deep river/stream valleys of primarily Northern PA early Wed
morning. Can`t rule out a brief dip to IFR at KBFD around 05Z
or at KIPT around dawn. However, odds are less than 50pct. The
remainder of the TAFs sites should be unaffected.
Outlook...
Thu...Patchy AM valley fog.
Fri...AM low cigs possible, mainly Central Mtns.
Sat...Showers/tsra likely with tempo vis/cig reductions.
Sun...AM showers/low cigs possible NW Mtns.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
624 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Key Messages:
1. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Rio Grande and parts of the
southern Edwards Plateau through midnight tonight.
2. A large area of the Rio Grande has received one inch of rainfall
with highest totals ranging from 3 to 6+ inches in 24 hour period.
3. New rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across some
locations along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau
including the western part of the Hill Country through late this
evening.
4. A weak frontal boundary is pushing across the local area tonight
to cut rain chances over parts of the Hill Country and the Intestate
35 corridor. The Rio Grande and the Coastal Plains have the better
chances for showers overnight.
Latest visible and IR satellite pictures show a mid level cyclonic
circulation pushing to the south of Del Rio. Just to the east of the
middle Texas coast, a broad upper low sits there while an upper
level trough axis stretches from Oklahoma to the southwest into west
Texas. At the surface, a low level pressure system sits over the
Brownsville CWA and it is transporting rich tropical moisture into
South Central Texas especially across the Rio Grande, southern
Edwards Plateau, parts of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains with
precipitable water values ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 inches per latest
SPC Mesoscale Analysis page.
Area Doppler radars are showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the local area with numerous showers staying
across the Coastal Plains. As the afternoon progresses, the upper
level trough axis is forecast to push to the northeast into the
Oklahoma and southern Missouri and northern Arkansas later
tonight/Wednesday morning. At the surface, abundant moisture and
convergence zones are forecast to produce efficient rain rate and
heavy downpours to result in flash flooding.
Additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected across the Rio
Grande, southern Edwards Plateau and western part of the Hill
Country through midnight tonight. These amounts are going to fall
over places that have gotten 3 to 6+ inches in 24 hours. The Austin
area may get a few showers this afternoon and early evening but
nothing like areas to the west. For San Antonio, can`t rule out a
heavy downpour or two that can produce a quick inch of rain mid to
late afternoon and evening. However, the heaviest rains are expected
for areas west of the Austin and San Antonio metros.
By late tonight, a weak frontal boundary is forecast to push across
the local area from the northeast (northern Hill Country area) into
a good portion of the local area through Wednesday morning. The
drier airmass spreads overnight through Wednesday, however, the Rio
Grande and Coastal Plains areas are likely staying under the
tropical airmass and therefore, the chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue into Wednesday morning and even extend to the
afternoon and evening. However, rainfall amounts over these areas on
Wednesday should stay at one quarter inch or less.
As far as temperatures go, overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s
across the Hill Country to 70s elsewhere and 80s to low 90s for high
temperatures .
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
A surface front will be located just south of the area Thursday
morning expected to continue to move towards far southern Texas
through Friday. Precipitation chances diminish day by day through
late week as drier air works its way into the area from the north,
particularly in the mid and upper levels. The best chances for
additional rainfall will be in the coastal plains Thursday with only
isolated activity at best on Friday. Lesser cloud cover and mainly
dry conditions with the exception of some low end PoPs near the Rio
Grande are seen Saturday. Dry conditions are expected late weekend
into early next week with afternoon dewpoints in the 50s or 60s.
Afternoon highs will be similar each day in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
The main difference will be in the low temperatures which will still
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s Friday and Saturday mornings, cooling
to the low to upper 60s thereafter.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
across most areas across South-Central Texas. Latest high-res model
guidance shows this activity decreasing in coverage late this evening
and the latest TAFs will reflect that. Should see MVFR then possibly
IFR ceilings settle in by morning with slow improvement tomorrow.
Latest HRRR is showing drier conditions for most areas tomorrow and
will only include the mention of VCSH at the DRT TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 91 74 91 / 50 30 10 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 90 73 90 / 40 30 10 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 92 74 93 / 40 30 10 40
Burnet Muni Airport 71 87 71 89 / 80 20 10 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 76 90 76 94 / 80 60 40 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 90 72 89 / 60 20 10 30
Hondo Muni Airport 73 89 72 92 / 50 40 10 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 90 71 90 / 50 30 10 40
La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 91 74 89 / 30 30 10 40
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 91 75 92 / 40 40 10 40
Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 76 93 / 50 40 10 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Bandera-Dimmit-Edwards-
Frio-Kerr-Kinney-Maverick-Medina-Real-Uvalde-Val Verde-Zavala.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...27
Aviation...29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
725 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High risk of rip currents for the beaches of Schoolcraft
County late this afternoon through Wednesday.
- Dry weather with a warming pattern through Wednesday.
- Rain chance returns Thursday along a cold front with cool
temperatures following into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show low-amplitude mid-level
ridging over the Northern Plains to western Great Lakes. At the sfc,
the ridging is supporting sfc high pres centered over the Lwr Great
Lakes. Satellite imagery today has showed accas in the vcnty of the
International Border from ND/Manitoba eastward toward Lake Superior,
even into western Upper MI now, evidence of some instability for
parcels lifted in the mid-levels. No shra have developed from these
clouds, but the accas does linger. Closer to home, it`s another nice
early Sept aftn across Upper MI. There are some patches of mid-level
clouds along with a layer of smoke aloft giving the sky a hazy
appearance today. Temps range thru the lwr and middle 70s F, and
dwpts are comfortable, mostly 50-55F, though readings are near 60F
along Lake MI under southerly winds. Winds are on the breezy side
with gusts into the 20-25mph range at times.
Some instability lingers tonight for parcels lifted from in the 5-
12kft range. However, quite a bit of cin is noted for these parcels,
and the column is relatively dry. So, don`t think low-level jet will
be sufficient to force any shra development tonight. Some accas
should continue to appear. Expect min temps to fall back to the lwr
50s F in parts of the interior where winds more fully decouple.
Temps will range up into the upper 50s to lwr 60s in high terrain
and along the Great Lakes. Winds should continue to gust to 15-25mph
in high terrain and in the downslope areas near Lake Superior.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
The brief warm pattern accompanied by dry weather ends Thursday as a
cold front and sfc trough pass east over the Upper Great Lakes. From
there, mid level troughing drops into the Great Lakes with sfc high
pressure to the west over the Dakotas/MN and the sfc troughing over
the lower Great Lakes/southern Ontario. This sets up a fall like
pattern with northerly flow yielding colder than normal temps and
persistent chances for lake effect rain showers. Late weekend, mid
level trough forms a closed low and the sfc trough deepens into a
low as it lifts north through Ontario and retrograding slightly
toward the Great Lakes. A drier pattern likely sets up for next week
as mid level ridging returns to the Great Lakes, forcing the closed
low to lift northeast over Quebec and high pressure to return to the
region.
The last warm day will be Wednesday as the sfc high shifts east out
over the Atlantic and a sfc trough approaches from the west,
continuing the WAA from southwest flow. Highs are expected
in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest in areas of downsloping flow and
cooler near Lake Michigan with onshore winds. With the pressure
gradient tightening and a ~35kt LLJ over western Lake Superior,
southwest winds around 10-15 mph are expected, gusting around 20-
25mph. That said, depending on the exact positioning of the LLJ and
how well we are able to mix earlier in the day, some gusts along the
far west and in the Keweenaw could push up to 30 mph. In addition,
mixing helps dewpoints drop in the afternoon, resulting in RHs
falling near 30%. Will need to monitor this as temps and winds
otherwise meet criteria for elevated wildfire conditions. The
stronger southwest winds will build waves on Lake Michigan,
increasing rip currents. Thus, there is a high swim risk for the
Schoolcraft County beaches this evening through Wednesday. Lows
Wednesday night fall into the 50s, coldest interior south-central.
On Thursday, the cold front and sfc trough make their way through
the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has slowed the arrival time of the
front/sfc trough, with showers arriving in the west around or after
12Z Thursday. This gradually progresses east across the UP Thursday
into Thursday night, bringing light rain showers (~0.1"-0.5") and
maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Meanwhile, a broad mid level trough
over Manitoba and northern Ontario descends into the Great Lakes
through Friday night. From there, a closed low likely develops into
Sunday over Lake Huron, pinwheeling as it gradually shifts northeast
Sunday and Sunday night. Then, a deepening sfc low develops over
southern Ontario Friday night from the strengthening closed low aloft,
then lifts north on Saturday. Guidance begins to diverge from there
with the sfc low track. All ensembles have plenty of members
keeping the sfc low within the vicinity of the Great Lakes. Further
into the extended, there is inconsistencies in the mid level
pattern. The ECMWF/Canadian take the closed low east on Tuesday and
Tuesday night toward New England while the GFS lifts the closed low
northeast through Quebec. This is likely the reason the GFS
ensembles have the more north and easterly track of the newly
developed sfc low compared to the ECMWF/Canadian ensembles
solutions. Ultimately, the troughing to the east of the UP and high
pressure and mid level ridging to our west sets up a period of
northerly flow. A colder airmass descending into the region with
this trough brings 850 mb temps down to 1 to -1C. This leaves
chances for lake effect showers continuing post cold front into
Saturday across the UP; showers continue over the east half into
Sunday.
Despite the uncertainty yet in the weekend/early next week forecast,
there is some decent agreement in the guidance for ridging and high
pressure to return next week. With a strong amplified ridge setting
up over the Great Lakes region again, it would be difficult to
erode this pattern and bring back negative height anomalies and
troughing back to the region. This means temps likely return back
near or above normal with a mostly dry weather pattern setting up
into the mid part of September. This is reflected well in the CPC 8-
14 day outlook.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Dry air mass overhead will result in VFR conditions at all terminals
in this TAF period. Nocturnal inversion tonight will result in low
level wind shear at KIWD/KCMX. After day time mixing begins
Wednesday, expect gusty southwesterly winds to increase to near 20-
25kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
With high pressure departing toward the Atlantic and a sfc trough
approaching the Great Lakes from the west, the pressure gradient
begins to tighten into Wednesday. In tandem with a low level jet
moving over the west half of the lake, southwest winds increase
tonight into Wednesday across the lake. Gusts up to 25-30 kts are
expected over the west half late tonight through early Wednesday
afternoon with 20-25 kt gusts over the east. Best chances (30-50%)
for any gale force gusts to 34 kts are between Isle Royale and
Thunder Bay where some channeling would occur. Southwest winds fall
to around 15-25 kts across the lake for Wednesday night ahead of the
cold front. Winds quickly back northwest then north behind the cold
front on Thursday with some gusts up to 25-30 kts; strongest winds
expected over the north central portion of the lake. Continuing into
the weekend, a period of persistent northerly winds is expected with
gusts in the 20-30 kt range. The best chances for gales, albeit low
(~20%) is Saturday night into Sunday over the east half of the lake.
With the southwest winds tonight into Wednesday, significant wave
heights build up to 5-7 feet over the east, particularly near Isle
Royale.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...Jablonski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
213 PM MDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery shows center of upper low over the
Central Mountains this afternoon. Band of showers/thunderstorms
active over the Lemhi region just ahead of the trough axis. Main
band of activity occurring over the highlands mainly east of I-15,
though a few very light showers/sprinkles still possible across
the Snake Plain early this afternoon. Winds so far have been slow
to increase through the Snake Plain in dry slot just ahead of main
shortwave axis, but lingering cloud cover may still be limiting
mixing potential. Thunderstorm activity expected to continue this
afternoon in these aforementioned areas, then decrease to more
isolated coverage this evening. Once the trough axis slips east,
dry conditions will be in place all areas. Another interesting
feature of note with this upper trough is the wall of smoke
wrapped around the low, slowly dropping southeast across the
region. Much of this smoke is vertically integrated, meaning
throughout the atmospheric column, however some visibility
restriction is noted in upstream observations. HRRR smoke fields
paint widespread near-surface visibility restriction sliding
across SE Idaho overnight, exacerbated by nighttime inversions.
There is some potential that the HRRR is not yet picking up some
of the newer fire activity from the past 24-36 hours, so smoke
inundation may be slightly underdone in the forecast. Upper ridge
begins to rebuild to the west with northwest flow in place through
Wednesday night, as trough axis fully exits SE Idaho during the
day Wednesday. DMH
.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.
High pressure will rebuild over the West mid-week, meaning dry
conditions and a return to temperatures just above normal to finish
off the week. Friday and Saturday will be the driest days of the
extended period. However, the ridge will become suppressed as a weak
shortwave moves onshore on Sunday, bringing low-end chance PoPs,
around 30% or less, to Southeast Idaho Sunday through Tuesday. At
this time, temperatures don`t look to take much of a hit, with highs
still remaining right around normal in the low 80s and cooler. Cropp
&&
.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue in the vicinity of
KDIJ through mid-afternoon. Winds will remain breezy at all
terminals through early evening, generally sustained winds to around
15 kts and gusts to 25 kts, as the front passes today. Behind the
departing low pressure system, upper flow will turn more northerly
tonight which will bring increased wildfire smoke into SE Idaho and
lead to reductions in VIS, especially at KSUN. High pressure
overhead through late week will mean light winds and dry conditions.
It will also keep smoke trapped over the region and likely mean a
continuation of reduced surface visibilities, as well. Cropp
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Upper low shifting through East Idaho for the
remainder of today. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible along
the Montana and Wyoming borders this afternoon, and Red Flag
Warning remains in place for ID Zones 475, 476, 411, and 413.
Localized wetting rains will be possible with stronger cells, but
not expected across a zone average. Winds will continue to
increase in the Snake Plain as drier air works into the region
this afternoon, but anticipated to drop off with sunset this
evening. Storms become more isolated through the evening, and
should be all but gone after midnight. Upper trough continues to
sag through the region, exiting during the day Wednesday. Ridge
gradually shifts east across the region through Saturday, allowing
moisture to return by Sunday. DMH
&&
.AIR QUALITY...
An Air Quality Advisory remains in effect for Custer County through
Thursday afternoon, where smoke from regional wildfires is keeping
air quality degraded to "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups." Upper flow
will turn northerly behind the departing system which will mean an
increase in wildfire smoke across Southeast Idaho. Smoke will be
trapped over the area under a high pressure ridge through late
week, likely leading to widespread degraded air quality. Cropp
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ411-413-
475-476.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
251 PM MDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...One last round of thunderstorms with the potential for
strong, gusty microburst winds this afternoon and evening,
especially north of I-70. A weak cold front will cross the state
tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing a cooler air mass along
with stable conditions and likely increased smoke.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Through 12Z Thursday)...Water vapor satellite
imagery this afternoon shows a broad circulation center over
central Idaho with a shortwave trough at its base over northern
Nevada and tracking towards the northern portions of our forecast
area. Surface radars are beginning to show a convective linear
feature moving northeastward across the West Desert similar to
what high- res models have been forecasting consistently since
early this morning. This is in an environment of 0.7-0.8" PWAT per
latest SPC mesoanalysis, or near normal for this time of year per
satellite analysis tool. The aforementioned trough is providing
around 40 kts of 0-6km shear, coupled with 500-1000 J/Kg surface-
based CAPE (also per SPC mesoanalysis). Inverted-V soundings
indicative of microburst potential are presented in both the
morning SLC sounding and model soundings.
Nearly of the high-res guidance continues to highlight a threat of
microburst winds for the Wasatch Front, as early as 3pm to as late
as 6pm, with a most likely window between 4 and 5 pm. HREF
probabilities of gusts exceeding 50mph in a 25km radius exceed 70%
through this time, especially on the west side of Utah Lake and in
the Rush/Tooele valleys. Storms will trend wetter as the event
continues, with rain likely to reach the ground in heavier cores
(but not likely to exceed 0.1"). HREF members also consistently
indicate additional rounds of convection into the evening after
the windy convective line pushes through. Thus, a Red Flag Warning
continues through this evening.
By this evening, the trough mentioned earlier will set up cold air
advection, with a much drier air mass moving in at the same time.
This will cut off the convection from northwest to southeast
overnight. Unfortunately, the cooler/drier air mass upstream of
our area happens to contain a lot of smoke from fires in Idaho and
Oregon, as easily seen currently in GeoColor satellite imagery.
The HRRR model is forecasting that this smoke will be advected
into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through the day tomorrow
and into tomorrow night, with haze eventually reaching as far
south as I-70. Just how thick the smoke will be over our area and
resultant air quality implications remains to be seen. It is worth
noting that there were a number of new starts reported in the
Boise WFO`s area, which could add to the pooled smoke.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday), Issued 409 AM MDT...
An upper-level ridge will build over the Great Basin late in the
work week, producing sunny skies and temperatures just above
normal. However, this dry period will be short-lived as the ridge
continues to nudge eastward, allowing monsoonal moisture to once
again push into southern Utah on Saturday. Precipitation chances
on Saturday afternoon will be limited to southwestern Utah, though
moisture will continue to overspread the state heading later into
the weekend...bringing those chances across all of Utah and
southwest Wyoming. As is typical with the onset of monsoonal
moisture, dry microbursts will be a threat at first, though
increasing moisture could produce a flash flood threat on Sunday
or Monday as PWATs increase to around 0.9" across southern Utah.
Moisture is likely to stick around heading into the work week.
Model guidance still suggests the development of a strong
longwave trough over the northeastern Pacific, though it is
unclear if/when it affects our forecast area. Currently, ~50% of
ensemble members suggest the trough makes it to our doorstep by
late Wednesday...but even with that lies great uncertainty in the
amplitude of the trough itself.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Occasional thunderstorms with gusty and erratic
outflow winds will impact the terminal during the 23-03Z timeframe.
Outflow winds will likely exceed 26 kts at times. There is a 30%
chance for VIS to fall into the MVFR category during this timeframe.
Winds will become southeast through the late evening and overnight
hours, with a switch to the northwest during the 10-12z timeframe.
There is a 30% chance VIS falls into the MVFR range after 18z
Wednesday due to smoke from upstream wildfires moving into the area.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Occasional showers and
thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds in excess of 30kts will
impact TAF sites south of I-80 through 03Z. The strongest storms
will impact KPVU and KHCR with winds in excess of 40 kts possible
between 23z and 02z. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will become
more isolated across the region after 03Z with winds becoming
diurnally driven. A weak cold front will turn winds to the northwest
across northern Utah before 12Z Wednesday, with a 30-40% chance VIS
falls into the MVFR range by afternoon along/north of I-80 due to
smoke from upstream wildfires spreading into the area.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ478-479.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Van Cleave/Seaman/Kruse/Cunningham
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
840 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Increased rain chances through midnight onshore from Franklin to
Bay county to account for the ongoing convection moving westward
with the HRRR keeping it inland for the next few hours.
Afterwards, the area slowly decreases and shifts offshore which
will take the higher chances with it. Temperatures and lows
tonight look reasonable with minimal changes.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 441 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
A back-door cold front will cross the region today, and then turn
up stationary over the far northern Gulf on Wednesday and
Thursday. The front will lift northward as a warm front on Friday,
tapping into an extremely moist air mass to make heavy rain a
concern. The next cold front will push southward through the
Alabama Wiregrass on Southwest Georgia late Saturday and Saturday
night, but it will slow down and possibly stall over north Florida
or the far northern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
With the backdoor front south of the region, deep easterly low-
level flow will remain in place through Wednesday. PoPs highest in
the FL counties, with "likely" confined closer to the coast today
and again on Wednesday. This is where the greatest convergence
will focus in a relatively moist low to mid-level air mass.
Compared to today, highs are forecast to cool Wednesday into the
85 to 90F range. Easterly winds will gust 15 to around 20 mph for
the remainder of today and again on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Rain.
A stationary front over the Gulf of Mexico will lift northward as
a warm front, allowing for warm moist air to advect into the Tri-
State region. As this occurs, an upper level trough from the
northern plains will become more prominent during the day and have
more impact on our weather heading into the weekend. As the
trough axis extends further south and east, rain chances will be
gradually increasing. Due to PWATS being around 2.5 inches, it is
appropriate to believe that localized flooding could occur from
heavy downpours. Through Friday night, the region is forecast to
receive 2-4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts. Most of
this rain will be along and south of I-10 with PoPs reaching
around 80% for Thursday and Friday. The WPC has highlighted our
Florida counties in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive
rainfall Wednesday night, and expands the Marginal risk towards
the I-75 corridor for Thursday with a Slight risk (2 of 4)
clipping the western half of Walton County. The rain continues
through Friday with the entire CWA covered in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall and the Florida Panhandle coast in a Slight
Risk (2 of 4).
With the expected rainfall and cloud cover, high temperatures
will moderate down to the low to mid 80s for the short term.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
The upper level trough will be extending over the region by
Saturday with rain and thunderstorm chances continuing. Some
storms may still produce heavy rainfall, hence the WPC
highlighting the FL Big Bend, up through the I-75 corridor in a
Marginal risk (1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday. PoPs
for Saturday range from 70%- 80% along and south of the I-75/I-10
corridors. Our AL and GA counties can expect about a 50%-60%
chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A surface high across the midwest will bring a cold front down to
the southeast, which will drive most of the rain out of our
region by the end of the weekend. Over the weekend, PoPs gradually
decrease with about a 20%-40% chance during the daytime hours.
The front will be slow moving, so it will take a few days past the
extended to dry out. The front will not bring much change in
regards to temperatures, but we should be around normal with highs
in the upper 80s/low 90s to start out next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
An area of showers is moving ashore from Apalachicola with
additional development west towards ECP. Current models show this
area south of TLH and possibly affecting ECP 1-4Z, which is
reflected in the TAF. MVFR cigs is expected overnight at TLH/VLD
with lower confidence at ECP with ABY/DHN north and west of this
area. Heading into Wednesday, showers and storms will move ashore
late morning, along with the seabreeze activity, to warrant at
least PROB30 remarks for TSRA at VLD/TLH/DHN and VCTS at ECP with
a little higher confidence here.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
A back-door cold front will push into the far northern Gulf late
today. North of the front and near the Panhandle coast tonight,
easterly breezes will freshen and become strong. A Small Craft
Advisory will go into effect this evening for our western waters.
The front will turn up stationary over the waters on Wednesday and
Thursday, with fresh to possibly strong easterly breezes
continuing north of the front. On Friday, the front will lift back
north as a warm front, allowing winds to clock around southerly.
The next cold front will slowly make southward progress across the
waters on Saturday, but then stall out late this weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Wetting rains will be mainly confined to the FL Big Bend and
Panhandle on Wednesday, then spread northward on Thursday. During
this time frame, easterly winds will gust 15 to around 20 mph each
day. Dispersions should be fair regionwide.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Heavy rain will become a concern during the second half of this
week. Through Saturday, multi-day rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
will be common, with amounts near 5 inches along parts of the
coast. A few outlier ensemble members show rainfall totals of 6-8
or more inches near the immediate coast.
Given a slow-moving warm front to focus rainfall in an extremely
moist air mass, isolated flash flooding will be a concern where
torrential thunderstorms manage to train or backbuild along the
front.
River basins that can catch in excess of 3-4 inches of rain will
see rises by this weekend, but the antecedent dry conditions and
low flows will contribute to rivers staying within their banks.
Therefore, riverine flooding is quite unlikely.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 74 88 74 85 / 30 50 30 70
Panama City 74 88 74 85 / 60 60 60 70
Dothan 73 87 71 82 / 10 30 20 50
Albany 70 86 72 84 / 0 20 10 40
Valdosta 73 87 74 85 / 10 30 20 60
Cross City 75 90 74 89 / 40 80 30 80
Apalachicola 77 87 75 85 / 70 80 60 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
FLZ114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ750-752-
770-772.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Haner