Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/31/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Widespread clouds are present generally south of the Canadian River with intermittent cloud breaks being observed. Meanwhile, dry air aloft is being advected in from the north which has caused clouds to erode north of the Canadian River with the exception of cirrus from convective debris. Rain is ongoing in the southeastern Texas Panhandle with some isolated to scattered showers in the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Some sort of weak impulse can be observed faintly on water vapor satellite and is faintly visible on radar as a counter-clockwise swirl... though it had been more apparent in the late morning hours. Have adjusted the highs today from the NBM to increase temperatures north of the Canadian River where clouds have broken up while cooling temperatures a few degrees south of the Canadian River where clouds are more prevalent. Forecast models indicate additional dry air aloft will dig further south into the Panhandles later this afternoon and tonight which, in addition to the lack of mentionable forcing mechanism, should cause rain chances to dissipate from north to south. Have left 20-30% PoPs in the southern Texas Panhandle later this afternoon as there is a slight chance for re-development of showers with the previously mentioned impulse. HRRR suggests there will be some thunderstorms in the southwest Texas Panhandle in association with that impulse, but have a hard time believing it given that highs are expected to only reach into the 70s. Otherwise, have cut PoPs down from the NBM tonight to reflect this dry air intrusion, but have left some PoPs in for the southern Texas Panhandle throughout tonight. Expecting the clouds to mostly clear out Saturday with very low to no chance for rain, though can`t entirely rule it out in the far southern or far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Most medium/longrange deterministic members continue to showcase dry conditions for Sunday, owed to northeasterly sfc flow and ridging downstream of approaching shortwave trough. On Monday, the GFS and ECMWF both depict this shortwave trough to become increasingly negatively tilted with its right-exit region positioned favorably for large-scale forcing for ascent. However, despite an optimal synoptic configuration, rainfall chances appear rather uncertain on Monday and Tuesday (POP`s of 15-23%) given model disparity of sfc pattern, moisture return, and cloud cover. For instance, the GFS suggests weakening and a eastward shift to the Eastern CONUS sfc high, allowing ample BL moisture return to CWA. The Euro however maintains the strength and position of the high, inducing east/northeasterly winds, sweeping highest moisture/PWATS south of CWA. Following Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is expected to build over the Great Basin in conjunction with a quasi-zonal 250mb pattern. Thus, rain chances appear slim but are not non- existent, especially with modest moisture return, well- timed with a embedded shortwave. Great Lakes troughing may throw a wrench in the forecast though, forcing westward shift of ridge and yielding northerly CAA. POPs in the lower teens have therefore been introduced, mostly for the southeastern CWA on Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Temperatures are expected to peak into 80`s and lower 90`s on Sunday, followed by a slight reduction into the upper 70`s and 80`s for Monday and Tuesday. The NBM suggests temperatures rebound back into the 80`s and even lower 90`s for Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Nonetheless, possible rain, cloud cover, and placement of ridge/trough inspires much uncertainty in the high temperature forecast. Landry Judd/Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through late Saturday afternoon. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 61 85 57 86 / 10 10 10 10 Beaver OK 57 85 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 54 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 61 88 57 91 / 10 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 59 86 57 87 / 10 0 0 10 Canyon TX 60 84 55 85 / 20 10 10 10 Clarendon TX 62 85 60 88 / 30 10 10 20 Dalhart TX 55 83 52 84 / 10 0 0 10 Guymon OK 55 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 59 85 55 86 / 20 10 10 10 Lipscomb TX 61 85 57 90 / 10 0 0 10 Pampa TX 60 84 57 87 / 10 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 63 85 59 89 / 20 10 10 10 Wellington TX 64 88 62 91 / 30 20 10 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...02
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1115 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and flash flooding are possible Saturday afternoon into the evening * Extended stretch of seasonably cooler, fall-like weather for the start of September && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic will maintain the stratus deck across nearly the entire forecast area overnight. Model soundings indicate the cloud layer will be too shallow to support drizzle over all but perhaps Sullivan/Schuylkill Counties. However, ridge top fog looks like a good bet. A band of showers/tsra over Southern Ontario associated with an upstream shortwave will approach the N Mtns late tonight. Latest convection-allowing model guidance indicates the best chance will remain north of the state, so we`re carrying only slight chance POPs across the northern counties. There`s not much room for cooling tonight with dewpoint depressions already low and overcast skies. Expect readings at dawn to be in the mid 60s over much of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The stalled front over Western PA is progged to return as a warm front Saturday in response to an upper trough approaching from the Grt Lks. Low level RH fields indicate a gradual west to east erosion of the low clouds during the late morning and afternoon. Falling heights and surging low level moisture, combined diurnal heating, results in fcst CAPE rising >1000 J/kg over most of region during the afternoon. Convection-allowing models all indicate discrete tstorm development around midday over the Allegheny Plateau, with fairly rapid upscale linear growth ahead of a weakening cold front, which shifts east into the Susq Valley toward early evening. Modestly strong mid level flow supports some risk of severe weather across all of Central PA. However, the most favorable environment based on latest guidance is across the Central Mtns, where enhanced low level backing flow in the vicinity of the advancing warm front results in a region of enhanced updraft helicity in the the 12Z HREF. Values >150 m2/s2 in this area support potential supercell development and associated large hail/damaging wind risks. Will also have to contend with the potential of localized flash flooding Sat afternoon/evening. HREF guidance indicates the possibility of localized 3+ inches over the Central Mtns, where FFG remains relatively low from recent rain. The potential of flash flooding looks lower east of the Main Stem Susquehanna River, where FFG is higher. A lead shortwave and weak cold front should push across the region Sat night, causing showers/tsra to diminish. However, will maintain a chance of showers through early afternoon Sunday in the vicinity of the dying front over Southern PA. Much drier air is progged to spread south into the region from north to south Sunday, resulting in mostly sunny skies over much of the region and clearing skies in the south by late afternoon. A secondary cold front will approach the NW Mtns by Sunday evening, perhaps accompanied by a late day shower over that part of the state. A large high pressure system is forecast by all guidance to build southeast into PA Sunday night into Monday, accompanied by fair and cool weather, along with much lower humidity. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... All medium range guidance supports fair and cool weather Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure pressure builds over PA. Calm wind and clear skies under the high should result in efficient radiational cooling and min temps a bit below NBM guidance, along with AM valley fog in the deep river/stream valleys of the Alleghenies. Moderating temps are expected the second half of the week, as the high slips off of the East Coast and a return southerly flow develops. A cold front will push into the region late Friday or Saturday, accompanied by our next chance of showers or tstorms. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions observed across the western sites (BFD/JST/AOO) with MVFR restrictions based on a low-level cloud deck (~1-2kft AGL) across the eastern airspace as of 00Z Saturday. In general, expect these trends to continue over the next couple of ours with moderate (50-60%) confidence with the biggest uncertainty at BFD where some SHRA could make way into the airfield mainly between 0100-0130Z. This could bring about slightly lower ceilings (MVFR) although some erosion of the low cloud deck has been noted on Nighttime Microphysics. After chances of SHRA dwindle at BFD (~02-03Z Saturday), expect conditions to deteriorate at a majority of central PA airfields overnight, with MVFR (BFD/JST) to LIFR (AOO/UNV/IPT) conditions possible. At this time, the highest confidence (60-70%) will be at AOO, with slightly lower confidence at UNV/IPT given a combination of 12Z HREF guidance (> 70%) of IFR/LIFR ceilings, GLAMP guidance and RAP model soundings outlining moisture in the lower-levels. At this time, thoughts are that visibility restrictions will be minimal (4-6SM) with lower ceilings being the main basis for restrictions. Further west at BFD/JST, lower confidence (20-30%) in any restrictions below MVFR at this time. For airfields in the LSQ (MDT/LNS), HREF outlines some higher probabilities in IFR/LIFR conditions and have outlined these in the 04-14Z timeframe despite GLAMP guidance not being the most robust on ceilings below 1kft forming, thus moderate (40-50%) confidence in these restrictions. Gradual improvement is progged by the bulk of model guidance after sunrise, although there is some discrepancies on timing and magnitude of improvement. Given some uncertainty, moderate confidence in the 13-18Z timeframe although expect most airfields to resolve towards high-end MVFR to low-end MVFR around 16Z Saturday. SHRA/TSRA is expected across much of the airspace during the afternoon and evening hours and have given a first attempt at SHRA onset timing continuing through the end of the 00Z TAF period with TSRA mentions limited to BFD/JST/AOO where there is slightly higher confidence. Outlook... Sun...AM Fog W. Lingering showers, drier air moving in PM. Mon-Wed...VFR w/ no sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...NPB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
557 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms possible for southeastern portions of the region this evening. - Cooler temperatures expected this weekend and beyond. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Scattered showers traversing the forecast area are expected to come to an end this evening. Chances for scattered showers and storms remain in the far southeastern portions of our region as instability associated with a cold front continues to progress east. The atmosphere is predicted to be modestly buoyant this evening, with surface- based CAPE values anywhere from 300-1300 J/Kg in southern portions of the area. Furthermore, convection allowing models (CAMs) show possible storm coverage in Cooper and Howard counties in the evening hours, with the threat for severe weather fortunately being low. Additionally, the HRRR shows some scattered activity in southern portions as well, though the storm environment remains relatively meager. If stronger storms do occur, the main threats will primarily be gusty winds and possibly small hail. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail across our area through the evening and overnight hours. Tonight`s lows are expected to be at or slightly below-normal as a cooler, continental air mass behind the upper-level low settles into the forecast area and shifts the surface wind flow in a northerly manner. Lack of cloud coverage also allows for substantial radiational cooling, which aids in keeping temperatures feeling almost fall-like. Temperatures appear to bottom out in a northeast- to-southwest gradient, with northern portions of the area in the upper 50s and places to the south experiencing lows in the lower to mid 60s tonight. Quieter weather is forecast for the weekend as 925MB surface analysis reveals a high pressure moving into south-central Iowa overnight. Meaningful relief from the heat is in store as seasonable temperatures return to our region. Highs are expected to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the forecast area Saturday. Latest GFS model guidance indicates a more robust surface high traversing across the central plains, establishing itself as the main influence of our area`s synoptic weather pattern beginning next week. As a result, pleasant conditions are expected for Sunday as well, with places north of I-70 experiencing afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s and places south of I-70 peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Benign conditions to grace the majority of the workweek as below-normal temperatures are anticipated for the region through the whole of the forecast period. Chances for showers and storms may return on Thursday night into Friday as a cold front associated with broader troughing in central Canada possibly brings instability across the forecast area. There is uncertainty in the timing this far out, and the chances for severe weather remain unknown at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 557 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected for majority of the TAF period. There is a potential for some MVFR/IFR ceilings early tomorrow morning, but there is uncertainty in coverage and timing. Winds are anticipated to stay weak and out of the north for the duration of the forecast period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hayes AVIATION...Collier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
521 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Scattered storms can be expected the next couple of days with temperatures remaining fairly warm. For Sunday into Monday, clouds and precip will become more focused over far west Texas and along the International border into New Mexico. High temperatures will be below average for these days with some areas over the east not getting above 80 degrees. Drier air starts to move back in for the middle of next week with temperatures returning back to around 90 for the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Currently an upper high sits around the Great Basin while to the SE, the Borderland is on the southwest end of an elongated trough extending up into northern Manitoba. This trough will be the weather player through the weekend, the question is to what extent. Tonight looks to be the most active as far as potential for strong storms with heavy rain potential. Storms will be moving slowly and there is modest shear around of around 25KTS which will allow for storms to drop locally heavy rain and possibly be sustained for some time. The strongest storms will move more quickly to the south. HRRR has backed off on coverage over the eastern half of the area and focusing more from the RGV to Deming. Other CAMs are more equal opportunity. With a weak surface boundary around and the upper trough combining with storm outflows, think scattered coverage for much of the area looks most likely. Going into the weekend, models showing agreement that Saturday will be a down day, likely due to coverage of storms later today even though we continue to have the upper trough lingering around the International Border. Should still see storms develop over area mountains with easterly low level flow continuing and even areas across the south with the trough could see isolated to scattered storms. High temperatures will be a little cooler than today with mid to upper 80s common over the lowlands. Sunday has some of the biggest discrepancies between models. Seeing a trend toward a weak low developing somewhere in northern Mexico. EC has remained consistent being further south, but NAM and especially the GFS are further north and bring fairly widespread precip to the southern half of the area. Looking at GFS ensembles, the operational seems to be on the wettest/coolest side. There will be a fair amount of cloud cover, at least south which will keep temperatures below normal. MAV guidance is going 72 for a high temp while the MET is 78 and NBM 84 at ELP. General trend is down, but looking at records for this time of the year, 72 would be near a record low high. Thinking around 80 looks reasonable for ELP, but out towards Dell City, it may struggle to reach much above the lower 70s with a better chance for all day cloud cover and rain. The upper low lingers into Monday before dissipating as upper high builds into the NM/AZ border region. Precip Monday should then be mainly far southeastern areas ahead of trough/low with drier air moving in from the NW. Even the EC is showing nice area of precip Sun night into Mon for far west Texas into extreme southern NM which is not common in the summer with the EC, so this leads me to have a higher confidence there will be some showers overnight compared to most nights. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs similar to Sunday. Upper high starts to really get reestablished by Tue/Wed which will keep much of the area dry, only area that may see some precip would continue to be far east. Temperatures will be warming back up toward normal which is mid 80s to around 90 for the lowlands. Another upper trough of which we are on the far SW side of will move in Fri/Sat and bring an increased chance for showers out east and some slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024 VRF conditions expected to persist through the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorm activity is expected to become isolated around the 03z to 04z time frame. Put in VCSH as any one TAF site may see a brief shower before 04z. SCT060 to SCT100 to SCT250 to BKN250 expected to persist through the remaining evening hours, then becoming SCT100 to SCT250 the rest of the period. Winds expected to be N to E at 5-15 mph. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024 A period of cooler and wetter weather, especially south and east, is in store for the weekend. Temperatures on Sunday into Monday may not get above the lower to mid 80s anywhere with some areas out east remaining in the 70s. RH`s will be in the 30s and 40s through Tuesday before dropping back into the 20s by midweek. Best chances for rainfall will be tonight areawide, then Sunday and Monday mainly south and east of a line from Alamogordo to Las Cruces. Vent rates will be good through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 88 70 81 / 40 30 30 50 Sierra Blanca 62 80 63 73 / 40 40 40 70 Las Cruces 64 87 65 81 / 40 30 40 40 Alamogordo 61 84 62 81 / 40 30 20 40 Cloudcroft 46 63 46 58 / 50 30 30 50 Truth or Consequences 62 87 62 84 / 30 20 30 30 Silver City 56 79 57 80 / 30 40 40 50 Deming 64 87 65 81 / 40 40 40 40 Lordsburg 62 87 63 85 / 30 50 50 40 West El Paso Metro 69 86 70 80 / 40 30 30 50 Dell City 65 84 66 79 / 50 40 30 60 Fort Hancock 67 87 68 80 / 40 40 40 70 Loma Linda 62 78 63 73 / 40 30 30 50 Fabens 67 86 68 80 / 40 40 40 50 Santa Teresa 66 85 67 79 / 50 30 40 50 White Sands HQ 67 84 68 81 / 40 30 30 50 Jornada Range 62 85 62 81 / 40 30 30 40 Hatch 62 88 63 80 / 40 30 30 40 Columbus 66 87 67 81 / 30 40 40 40 Orogrande 62 82 63 79 / 40 30 20 40 Mayhill 52 71 53 67 / 40 40 30 50 Mescalero 50 72 51 69 / 50 40 30 50 Timberon 49 70 50 66 / 40 30 30 40 Winston 52 79 53 77 / 30 30 30 30 Hillsboro 58 85 59 83 / 30 30 40 40 Spaceport 59 86 60 82 / 30 30 30 40 Lake Roberts 51 81 50 79 / 40 40 40 50 Hurley 57 82 58 81 / 30 40 40 40 Cliff 56 87 55 84 / 30 40 40 40 Mule Creek 55 82 54 82 / 30 40 30 40 Faywood 59 83 60 80 / 40 40 40 40 Animas 64 88 65 85 / 40 40 40 50 Hachita 62 85 63 82 / 40 40 40 40 Antelope Wells 62 84 63 82 / 30 40 40 50 Cloverdale 60 83 61 80 / 40 40 40 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...41-Kelly
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
925 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms moving out tonight - Quiet and cooler weather into Thursday && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 The threat for thunderstorms has ended across our fcst area. However an upper trough and mid to upper level pva over our southern fcst area will bring some light rain showers to that area overnight. This notion is suggested by the 00Z HRRR and 12Z HREF. Some localized patchy fog may develop toward daybreak particularly in areas where it rained earlier today. This potential will be mitigated somewhat by fairly extensive cloud cover which should linger for most of the overnight period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - Storms moving out tonight We still expect strong to severe storms to form this afternoon across the southeast forecast area from Lansing to Battle Creek over to Jackson where 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE will be available for storms ahead of the shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. Shear profiles show only about 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear so the main threat will be isolated damaging winds from transient bowing structures or deeper updrafts/precip cores. The stronger storms are expected to be clearing the southeast zones by 8 pm but rain showers will linger across the southern zones after midnight as another batch of showers out ahead of the upper trough axis arrives later this evening. - Quiet and cooler weather into Thursday Confidence is fairly high that we will see a cooler, quiet, and much less humid period from Sunday into next Thursday. The upper trough that tries to clip our area Saturday night into Sunday will usher in even cooler weather than the cold front coming through today. Can not rule out a brief shower up North Sunday morning, but it should not be anything to cause any issues. Once the trough moves out by later Sunday, we will see a fairly high amplitude upper ridge only slowly build toward the area through much of next week. This will be slow to move through as the upper air pattern will slow down with the amplified upper low developing as it moves east of the area. Much drier air coming in, along with plenty of subsidence downstream of the upper ridge will keep the area dry. We will see mild days, and cool late summer nights with the temps dropping quickly in the evening with the dry air in place. It looks like our next chance for some rain will not arrive until later Thursday into Friday. The bottle-necked upper air pattern will shift to the east enough that the ridge slips east of the area. An upper ridge will become established across the western states, and allow a fairly large amplitude low/trough to dig over the area. This will equal cooler weather coming in again, with some occasional instability showers possible. Not sure if this trough/low anchors over the area, or just slowly moves by just beyond this forecast period next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 747 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Showers and storms have moved east this evening and conditions will stay dry until just after 06z at which point some light rain will be possible. This will mainly impact terminal near the I-94 corridor until about 09z. Briefly reduced visibilities down to 4 to 5 miles is possible. VFR returns just before daybreak, then high clouds and quiet weather for the rest of Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 North winds behind a cold front on Sunday will gust to 30 knots and build waves of 4 to 6 feet and perhaps higher by Sunday afternoon. We have issued a SCA and Beach Hazard Statement already given high confidence in this event during a holiday weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...Laurens DISCUSSION...Ostuno/NJJ AVIATION...Thielke MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
731 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon through late evening. A few of these storms might become strong with gusty winds and small hail. - A High Swim Risk on Lake Michigan Beaches expected Sunday. Otherwise, pleasant weather with drier and more mild temperatures expected through Labor Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 It`ll be another warm and humid afternoon as mid/upper level ridging holds on for one more day. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s where greatest evapotranspiration is occuring will leave us feeling muggy in most locations. Drink plenty of fluids if you plan on spending time outdoors during peak heating. A cold front will begin to work its way through our area this evening and through the overnight hours. Out ahead of this front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (40-65% chance) will develop. Environmental conditions do not appear very conducive for robust severe thunderstorms. However, 15Z- satellite and surface analysis shows an outflow boundary now transecting our CWA, and 14Z forecast RAP suggests an area of enhanced (but on the weak side) 0- 6km shear between 20-30kt, along with moderate ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg; residing mainly south of US-6 and west of US-31. Assuming convection can overcome some inhibition, which CAMs and model soundings suggest will happen, some of these storms may produce small hail and a strong to marginally severe wind gust late this afternoon into evening, especially in the aforementioned area in N Central Indiana. Our weather for the extended 3 day weekend will be excellent with high temperatures and relative humidity noticeably more pleasant beginning Saturday. Labor Day itself will see the coolest temperatures as lows bottom out around 50 degrees and we only warm up into the low/mid 70s. Not cold, but much better than earlier this week if I do say so myself. For Sunday, keep an eye on tents/canopies/umbrellas as north to northwest winds will be a bit breezy with gusts 20-25 mph, especially across northwest IN and southwest MI. Unfortunately, the cooler north winds won`t bring completely good news. We have high confidence in a High Swim Risk for southeast Lake Michigan beaches on Sunday as wave heights will grow to near 6 feet. These waves and currents might trickle into Monday, so be sure to check your local beaches on Monday; and avoid swimming at all on Sunday. Dry and mild weather will continue through much of the work week before models hint at an amplifying pattern with troughing occuring across the Great Lakes region. Will let model blended PoPs ride on Friday with the expectation that an unstable airmass and possible front might be in the vicinity, making isolated chances (15-20%) sound reasonable. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 A cold front creeps southeastward this evening and overnight allowing for a chance for some thunderstorms. The storms are expected to lose their severity as we head towards and past sunset this evening. Then a reinvigoration of rain and perhaps some thunder takes shape farther southwest, south of US-30, after 00z or so tonight. Can see those affect FWA by midnight or so tonight. Will have vcts to start, but will have shra in there for later. There`s some question about fog potential tonight as the temperature and dew point drop slows with the arrival of the rain. Still will hang on to the lowered VISBY chance at FWA, but will also leave it off of SBN as the previous issuance did. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday morning for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday morning for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Norman AVIATION...Roller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
541 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tranquil and dry conditions continue through much of next week with temperatures at or slightly above normal. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed high pressure anchored across the Desert Southwest with a ridge extending northwest into the Pacific Northwest. A secondary upper-level high was noted across the southeastern CONUS with a ridge extending northeast into northern Quebec. An upper-level low pressure system was swinging northeast into the Hudson Bay with a trough extending south into the northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, high pressure was apparent across the northern Plains. A beautiful end of August day has been observed across western and north central Nebraska with 3 PM CT temperatures ranging from 77 degrees at O`Neill to 86 degrees at Valentine. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Pleasant conditions continue through the first half of Labor Day weekend and beyond. The previously mentioned surface high will hold strong over the region tonight into Saturday with clear skies and light winds prevailing. Mid-level warm air advection (WAA) will result in near seasonal overnight lows in the low to mid-50s. An upper-level disturbance currently located ~800 miles off the coast of northern California will begin to slowly advance eastward, nudging the southwestern CONUS ridge further east across the local region. As a result, strong heating will occur ahead of a dry cold front dropping southward out of the Dakotas with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper-80s to low-90s on Saturday. Afternoon humidity values will fall to 20 percent or less across the Sandhills (Fire Zones 204 and 206), however, relatively light winds will limit fire weather conditions from reaching critical levels. The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the area overnight on Saturday with Canadian high pressure building in it`s wake. Comparative to tonight, overnight temperatures on Saturday will fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 We will very much be in a forecast loop through much of the long term period as dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures continue. The exception to this will be the last day of the holiday weekend being a breezy one as the surface pressure gradient (SPG) tightens between a surface low across Montana and the strong surface high holding strong over the Midwest. As a result, southerly winds will strengthen overnight Sunday with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph for most locations, though the strongest gusts up to 35 mph will be felt across the northwest Sandhills. Outside of the winds, a near picture perfect Labor Day is in store for the area with daytime temperatures ranging from the low-80s across north central Nebraska to low-90s across the Sandhills. Given the above normal temperatures across the Sandhills, afternoon humidity values will fall to 20 percent or less. Combined with the breezy winds, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may materialize across Fire Zone 204. An almost copy and paste forecast is on tap for Tuesday with the expansive upper-level ridge holding strong over the central CONUS. Fortunately the upper-level ridge will be forced to flatten as the disturbance currently deepening across the Pacific Ocean advances inland across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on Wednesday. This will drive a surface cold front into the area by Wednesday evening, allowing highs to trend back into the low to mid-80s through the remainder of the week and potentially triggering a few showers or thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Confidence is rather low on precipitation chances during this period and many locations aren`t likely to see much in the way of wetting moisture. Given the spread amongst model solutions, cannot argue with the NBM`s forecast of sporadic slight chance/chance PoPs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 540 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 VFR conditions with SKC expected across central and western Nebraska through the valid period. With afternoon dew points in the 40s and expected lows tonight a few degrees warmer than last night do not anticipate meeting our crossover temperature for fog formation and guidance is in good agreement in generating no fog or stratus. Perhaps some shallow fog right near lakes and rivers but do not anticipate any negative impacts at TAF sites. Winds will be light through daybreak Saturday morning. Expect light southwesterly winds will persist at KLBF at or below 10kt through Saturday afternoon. However KVTN will see a weak, dry front drop down form the north and swing winds around to a northerly/northwesterly direction during the afternoon with some gusts around 20kt. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Viken SHORT TERM...Viken LONG TERM...Viken AVIATION...MBS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
621 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 ...New UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1252 AM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Cool temperatures persist through the Labor Day Holiday. A warmup looms for Tuesday of next week and beyond. && .UPDATE... Issued at 614 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 The latest HRRR vertically integrated smoke product shows a fairly strong signal that smoke from the Coffee Pot Fire in Tulare County will push through the East Bay and Napa County overnight and into Saturday morning. This is supported by visible imagery showing a clear band of smoke heading that direction. Fortunately the near- surface smoke concentrations look minimal and this will be more of a sunrise maker than anything else. Otherwise, the stratus has totally evaporated across the area and clear skies prevail. Despite this, the models have a strong signal for it to return to coastal areas overnight. They are likely a little too aggressive with the timing based on comparing the current analysis with satellite imagery and we adjusted the sky grids and aviation forecast to show a later arrival. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1214 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Satellite imagery shows stratus blanketing the Monterey Bay region and pared back to the immediate coast everywhere else. Further mixing out of the stratus will continue in the Monterey bay region through the early afternoon hours, but patches of stratus will remain through the day at the immediate coast. Once again, widespread stratus coverage is expected to return tonight as the marine layer remains robust at 1500-2000 feet. Temperatures remain near seasonal averages as a cutoff low approaches the region, eating into an upper level ridge that is migrating towards the northwestern United States and southwest Canada. High temperatures today and Saturday will range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s across the inland valleys, up to near 100 in the southern extremes of Monterey County, the low 70s to lower 80s along the bays, and the low to mid 60s along the Pacific Coast. Lows range in the 50s and lower 60s in the lower elevations, perhaps up to the low 70s in the peaks. Onshore winds will continue to be breezy during the afternoons and evenings, gusting up to around 20-25 miles per hour in the gaps, passes, and Salinas Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1252 AM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 The troughing continues through the weekend and Labor Day with below-normal temperatures expected. However, Monday, Labor Day, will see just a slight uptick in high temperatures as ridging (high pressure) redevelops over the region, leading us into our next period of warm weather. But, for the sake of Labor Day activity planning, lets provide a quick rundown of what you can expect weather-wise for the day: -Interior regions will see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Here`s a sample of highs expected for a handful of cities on Monday: Concord 88, Livermore 86, SF downtown 73, SF Ocean Beach 62, Santa Rosa 84, Napa 82, Gilroy 90, Monterey 69, Santa Cruz downtown 79, King City 88. -Clear skies, minus some overcast conditions in the morning at the immediate coast until the stratus clears in the afternoon. -Light onshore winds in the afternoon, with breezier conditions near coastal gaps as the seabreeze picks up in the afternoon. All in all, it should be a pleasant day for anyone that is perhaps planning any activities outdoors for the holidays. Being one of the last big summer holidays where temperatures are still warm outside, many people may be planning to hit the water. As always, we want to encourage people to be safe, so if you`re planning on going boating or swimming at the lake, or even just having a BBQ on the shore, remember to wear that life jacket, know the risks of cold water shock, swim near a lifeguard, and check local ocean or waterway conditions before you go. Beyond the holiday, warm temperatures persist, with the ridge building Tuesday and beyond to allow for the return of above normal temperatures. At this point, no products have been issued for heat. All for now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 VFR across the board becoming MVFR-IFR overnight. Stratus is expected to be widespread with moderate confidence in MVFR CIGs and slightly lower confidence in any MVFR CIGs that do develop lowering to become IFR. Main difference from previous set of TAFs - pushed back stratus arrival time for most airports with most sites expected to return later tonight beginning around/after 05-06Z. Currently not anticipating stratus to reach LVK but temporary MVFR-IFR CIGs remain possible during the early morning 11-16Z timeframe. Stratus will clear out by mid to late morning with all sites returning to VFR through the remainder of the TAF period and into the afternoon. Winds generally stay west to northwest through the TAF period with more moderate daytime winds and weaker winds overnight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR becoming MVFR overnight. The timing of stratus arrival was pushed back slightly with arrival between 08-10Z looking more favorable. MVFR CIGs are expected to persist through mid tomorrow morning with low confidence that IFR CIGs will develop. Moderate northwest winds with gusts up to 25 knots persist during into the evening before winds weaken and become more west- northwesterly overnight. Northwest winds are expected to strengthen tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 23 knots possible. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR becoming MVFR-IFR overnight. Pushed back the timing of stratus arrival to 05-06Z with ensemble guidance and current satellite observations supporting a later return of stratus. Moderate confidence that CIGs will first develop as MVFR and gradually become IFR. Low to moderate confidence on timing of transition due to models overestimating stratus coverage and forecasting too low CIG heights. Any stratus that does develop will dissipate by mid to late morning, going off persistence around 18- 19Z, with VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Moderate northwest winds persist during the day before winds become lighter and more variable overnight. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 511 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Breezy to gusty west winds will funnel through the Golden Gate into the northern San Francisco Bay the both today and again tomorrow, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally stronger wind gusts will be likely in the nearshore waters south of Pigeon Point for Saturday afternoon. Northwesterly winds will redevelop over the coastal waters late in the upcoming weekend resulting in increasing seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....AC AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will build over the region through the rest of the week. The Labor Day weekend will feature much warmer than average temperatures with most of the Inland Northwest exceeding 90 degrees Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The arrival of a cold front Monday night into Tuesday will bring breezy conditions and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Hot temperatures look to return over the Inland Northwest for the latter half of next week as the ridge of high pressure rebounds. && .DISCUSSION... Key points: - Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal through Labor Day weekend. - 15-30% chance of thunderstorms in southeast Washington and north Idaho Monday afternoon. Slight cooling trend to near normal temperatures Tuesday. - Upper level ridge rebuilds by Wednesday. Temperatures return to much above normal. Tonight through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will continue to build through the weekend, bringing very warm temperatures to the area. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 90s across the majority of the area with small pockets of triple digits, particularly near Lewiston. With skies expected to be clear, insolation will be maximized, with the warmest temperatures expected to be on Sunday before the trough off the coast of California begins to aid in ridge breakdown. Nonetheless, a moderate to major heat risk will persist through Monday. Given the holiday weekend and associated increase in outdoor activities, it is crucial that people take precautions. Dry conditions will also increase the rate of dehydration. Avoid strenuous activity, bring along and drink plenty of water and electrolytes, take advantage of shade and air conditioning, and be sure to check in on any vulnerable friends, family, or neighbors and provide any necessary assistance. As the trough off the coast of California begins to move ashore Monday morning, the ridge will begin to break down. Concurrent precipitable water anomalies of up to 60% above normal will be present on Monday and Tuesday. Unfortunately, the bulk of this precipitable water will be above 600 mb, with very dry air beneath it. LCL heights are forecast around 13000 to 14000 feet during this time. This will significantly limit the ability of any precipitation to reach the ground. Global ensemble members are forecasting SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg across much of Washington and northern Idaho on Monday, and up to 1000 J/kg in northern Idaho on Tuesday. This, combined with the aforementioned dry lower-level conditions, will create a low threat of dry lightning in the respective areas during this period. Wetting rain probabilities will be no higher than 5% on the lee side of the Cascades and 10% in northern Idaho late Monday. DCAPE values of up to 1,200 J/kg will also create a risk of gusty outflows. With low relative humidities (teens) and breezy winds (5-10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph). A minor fire risk will be present, particularly near any lightning strikes. The area of maximum concern for fire weather will be southeast Washington and north Idaho. Tuesday will bring a brief respite from the heat as the shortwave and cold front move through, with the convective risk moving eastward into eastern Shoshone county. Models are not yet in agreement on when the shortwave will fully clear the area, which may allow the convective risk to persist later on Tuesday, particularly in extreme eastern Washington and northern Idaho. High temperatures will dip to the upper 80s across most of the area. Wednesday through Friday: Ridging will quickly build back on Wednesday, allowing temperatures to rebound to at least the mid 90s. The peak intensity of the ridge is not yet clear, but there is a decent chance it could be equally potent or even slightly more so, which will make heat a significant concern during this period. Ensembles are split about 50/50 on the ridge axis staying over the Inland Northwest or shifting east. This will affect the timing and duration of increased temperatures, with the majority of members not showing a return to normal heights until Sunday or even Monday. This means we can likely expect temperatures in the 90s at least through next weekend, which may necessitate further Heat Advisories. /Cooke && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Increasingly warm high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest through Sunday. Mainly clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing condition through at least Saturday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through 00z Sunday. The HRRR Total Smoke forecast is bringing smoke into far southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle Saturday night into Sunday. It will probably be aloft initially, but by Sunday night into Monday deeper mid and low level southerly winds may begin to degrade visibility around Lewiston and Pullman. Confidence low. /GKoch ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 54 93 58 95 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 53 90 56 92 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 51 91 55 95 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Lewiston 59 98 63 100 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 47 91 50 95 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 51 86 54 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 58 89 60 92 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Moses Lake 53 95 56 97 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 64 93 68 97 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 59 95 62 98 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Monday for Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area- Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
144 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Weekend: Seasonably warm and dry with isolated showers or T-storms possible across the Eastern Sierra Saturday afternoon. * Breezes ramp up on Sunday with widespread gusty winds for Monday with impacts to recreation, fire weather, and aviation possible. * Temperatures drop to near season averages for the first half of next week before warming up again. && .DISCUSSION... This Weekend: * Temperatures remain seasonably warm (4-8 degrees above average) as we sail into the holiday weekend with high temperatures in the mid- 90s across western Nevada and mid-80s for Sierra communities. Through Sunday there will be a few spots of moderate HeatRisk possible for rural areas and in urban centers, so remember to stay hydrated and keep cool in the shade when you can. * Afternoon heating will produce afternoon instability across the eastern Sierra with some afternoon cumulus buildups as well as some isolated showers or thunderstorms. The best potential holds steady for Saturday afternoon with a 10-15% chance for a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm for the Eastern Sierra south of Highway 50. * Winds will generally remain light through Saturday before breezier southwest winds return on Sunday (20-25 mph gusts) ahead of an approaching offshore low that will make its way inland Sunday night into Monday. This low may provide enough forcing aloft to develop fast moving, elevated showers (15% chance) across far E.Modoc and far N.Washoe counties. * Latest HRRR near surface smoke projections are showing some smoke inching across the Eastern Sierra into Mammoth Lakes, June Lake and the Mono Lake vicinity early Sunday morning. Labor Day Brings Gusty Wind Impacts: * Forecaster confidence holds steady as a well-forecast upper low approaches the West Coast this weekend. Plan on increasing winds Sunday into Monday that will bring impacts to aviation, recreation and elevated fire weather concerns. * The strongest winds arrive Monday afternoon, with a 40-50% chance of gusts 40+ mph for the eastern Sierra into northwest and far western NV, including the US-395/I-580 corridor. Sierra ridgetops will also see increased winds beginning Sunday evening with gusts of 50-60 mph through Monday. * Plan on areas of critical fire weather conditions with the arrival of the gusty winds combining with the very dry conditions. For more see the fire weather section. The strong winds may produce blowing dust, aviation turbulence and rough lake conditions for those recreating for the holiday weekend. Plan ahead for the strong winds and have a plan B. Blowing playa dust could impact aviation and produce low visibility for those driving out of Black Rock City from Sunday into Monday evening. * Other than these unpleasant (IMO) impacts, it will cool down a bit in the wake of this quick system. Plan on closer to seasonal averages for the first half of the week before warming back around 5 degrees above average for the second half of the week. Next week looking pretty dry with typical light afternoon breezes. Edan && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions with typical southwest winds will continue through Saturday. Afternoon cumulus cloud development is possible across the E.Sierra with a 15% chance for showers or an isolated thunderstorm along the E.Sierra from KTVL to KMMH Saturday afternoon (15% chance). * Smoke from fires west of the Eastern Sierra (mainly Coffee Pot fire) will infiltrate into the the KMMH vicinity and may produce slantwise visibility reductions early Sunday morning. * Winds increase on Sunday into Monday with gusty southwest winds Sunday (20kts) ramping up more Monday (25-30kts). There will likely be periods of moderate turbulence and LLWS issues for area terminals. Edan && .FIRE WEATHER... Confidence continues to increase for widespread critical fire weather conditions over northeast California and far western Nevada on Monday afternoon and evening. A low pressure system moving into the region on Monday brings gusty southwest winds to 30-35 mph to the aforementioned areas. These winds are expected to overlap with RH values in the single digits to low teens, resulting in a 3-6 hour period of Red Flag conditions. Especially considering increased outdoor recreation this weekend, we have hoisted a Fire Weather Watch valid Monday afternoon and evening for CA zones 278 & 270 as well as NV zones 420 & 458. Ahead of this system, southerly flow transports just enough moisture into the region to allow some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop generally south of US-50 on Saturday. As these storms will be mainly dry, lightning starts are possible, though the isolated nature of these storms precludes any product issuance. Winds begin to tick up across areas generally north of I-80 as early as Sunday afternoon, with gusts 25-30 mph. Gusty winds become more widespread on Monday. Whitlam $$ .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening NVZ420-458. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening CAZ270-278. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
740 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A modest moisture increase will increase precipitation chances in northwestern Arizona as well as the mountains of far southeastern California and southern Nevada today and Saturday, with chances dwindling, but not fully disappearing in Mohave County through next week. && .UPDATE...Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across Mohave and Clark County as well as eastern portions of San Bernardino County this afternoon in response to a weak upper level disturbance. Closer to the surface, mesoanalysis showed moisture was still lacking and instability was weak, thus convection remained isolated and impacts were limited. Some storms were able to produce gusty outflow winds of 30-40 MPH, which make sense with dry invert-V soundings providing a good environment for evaporative cooling but limited instability that remained in the mid to upper levels keeping DCAPE and downburst potential low. Now with the sun setting, precipitation is quickly waning. A few showers are still noted on radar but overall they are on a downward trend. The latest HRRR has all precipitation ending by 9PM or 10PM and this seems reasonable. Overnight should be dry, which is what the forecast has been advertising so no changes were needed to the overnight forecast. One thing that will be important to watch through the overnight hours is how much debris clouds hang around which could not only keep low temperatures from dropping off in western Arizona and southern Nevada, but if debris clouds linger through Saturday morning they could play a role in how much precipitation develops Saturday afternoon. While there will be an increase in PWATs overnight and the upper level disturbance will remain over the region for Saturday, could clouds keep from maximum convective potential? Stay tuned! -Nickerson- && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...228 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow. A weak shortwave trough will lift into the area from the Gulf of California today, moving trough the area tomorrow. This disturbance will bring a slight uptick in moisture to the region, helping to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the eastern portions of our forecast area today and tomorrow. Mohave County will have the best chances of precipitation each afternoon with a 20 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and a 30 to 60% chance tomorrow afternoon. The higher terrain of southern Clark County and the Mojave Preserve will see around a 15% chance of precipitation this afternoon with a 20 to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. We will also see an uptick in precipitation chances on Saturday afternoon for the higher terrain of Lincoln County, with a 15 to 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. While we are expecting moisture to increase, we aren`t expecting a highly anomalous push of moisture with precipitable water values pushing 200% of normal. Average precipitable water values for late August/early September are around 0.65 to 0.75 inches. This morning`s 12Z sounding measured 0.75 inches of precipitable water. All of this to say that widespread flash flooding is not expected to pose a major threat with this afternoon`s storms, unless storms begin training or remain anchored to the terrain. Dry low-levels will also contribute to the decreased flash flood risk by making it more difficult for rain to make it to the ground without evaporating. However, these drier low-levels will result in an increased risk of outflow winds from any storms that develop. Outflow winds this afternoon are not expected to exceed 50 mph. However, the same can not be said for storms tomorrow afternoon. The 12Z HREF shows a 10 to 20% chance of 50+ mph outflow wind gusts with storms in Mohave County tomorrow. Those recreating outdoors, especially those recreating on area lakes, should make sure to stay weather aware tomorrow. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. A shortwave will move into northern California on Sunday, which will turn the flow more west to southwest. Despite modest PWATs remaining over much of the area, this change in flow combined with limited forcing and instability will limit precipitation potential and impacts on Sunday to the terrain in eastern Mohave County. As the low lifts northwest into the Northern Plains the beginning of next week, breezy winds are expected Monday in the southern Great Basin. Impactful gusts over 40 MPH are not likely, but will need to watch the potential for increased fire danger due to winds and low relative humidity. By Tuesday, the shortwave lifts away and winds will diminish. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure will reposition itself west over the Southwest US. This will decrease moisture and precipitation chances while increasing temperatures. There is a high probability (80% or greater) for above normal high temperatures through the period in areas outside of the southern Great Basin where the influence of the shortwave will keep temperatures near normal through Tuesday before warming to above normal by Wednesday. Heat Risk the second half of next week will increase with potentially High Risk for heat-related impacts returning in valley areas of San Bernardino, Mohave, Clark, and southern Nye counties. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeast to East winds around 7-8kts will prevail through 21z before shifting more to the Southeast with speeds around 7kts. Southerly winds are forecast to develop during the early evening, but there will be some potential of seeing thunderstorm outflow winds between 23z-03z this evening that could bring more variable and briefly gusty winds to the terminal. Overall confidence is low and was not included in the TAF. Although no thunderstorms are expected in the Las Vegas Valley, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across northwest Arizona affecting the Peach Springs and Mormon Mesa corridors. Similar conditions are expected Saturday with most of the convection confined to northwest Arizona, but various outflow boundaries could affect the winds at KLAS during the late afternoon and early evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Most areas will see a continuation of the typical diurnal wind pattern through Saturday. At KBIH, winds will be southeasterly to south and remain until turning back to the north by late this evening. Speeds will be 10-20kts. Winds around KDAG will generally favor a northeast direction, but remain under 10kts. In the lower Colorado River Valley, winds will remain southerly 10kts or less through the afternoon. A few areas of convection are possible over northwest Arizona this afternoon and evening, and guidance continues to show a period of non-typical easterly winds affecting KIFP for a few hours after 00Z. Away from the before- mentioned convection, VFR conditions will prevail through tonight, with only a few clouds with bases AOA 12kft AGL expected across northwest Arizona, far southern Nevada, and far eastern California. Conditions look to remain nearly the same Saturday with isolated convection over northwest Arizona along with various outflow boundaries that could impact KIFP and KEED late afternoon and evening. There is a low probability of any outflow winds reaching the Las Vegas Valley. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stessman LONG TERM...Nickerson AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter