Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/26/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms are possible tonight across far southern North Dakota. Main hazards will be quarter sized hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather Monday in far southern North Dakota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Not much has changed regarding thunderstorm potential later tonight and into Monday morning. It does appear that most CAMs have slowed down just a touch and it may not be until the 08z to 10z time frame when storms make their way into the southwest. MUCAPE should only max out around 300 J/kg. However, with 45 to 55 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear in the forecast, we will continue to advertise an isolated severe thunderstorm threat across the far south through the night. That being said, expectations for severe weather are fairly low at this point given the meager instability. UPDATE Issued at 846 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 The Heat Advisory was allowed to expire on time. UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Capping continues to hold strong across western and central North Dakota and the cold front has now pretty much moved out of the area to our east. Radar only suggests some light radar echoes behind the front across the south central, but these are mainly just mid to high clouds. Still, a few sprinkles are not out of the question. The severe threat for the James River Valley has all but diminished. Thunderstorms currently located over northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota will slowly move north and east through the evening, potentially reaching southwest North Dakota in the 05z to 07z time frame. The most recent RAP soundings indicate we will only see a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, but deep layer shear will be strong. Thus, a few stronger storms are possible but limited instability will keep the severe threat isolated (if any). Finally, we will keep the Heat Advisory going until it is set to expire at 8 PM CDT as we continue to see a couple sites across the James River Valley above 100 degrees for heat index values. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Surface low and cold frontal boundary continue sliding across the forecast area from west to east. This has resulted in significantly drier conditions in the west versus the east where dewpoints in the mid 70s persist. The two biggest concerns for this afternoon and evening remain the Heat Advisory in the James River Valley, and the threat for severe weather in eastern North Dakota, including the James River Valley, and the far south. In regard to the Heat Advisory, heat index values are approaching 100 in the James River Valley. Though with the quicker moving frontal boundary, temperatures may stall enough to keep heat indexes just under 100 in much of the advisory area. Either way, regardless of the technicality of a few degrees, it is still very hot in the James River Valley and therefore the Heat Advisory remains in effect. In regard to severe weather, a lot of uncertainty remains. While the SPC mesoanalysis page suggests the cap may erode by late afternoon, deterministic forecast soundings maintain a robust cap through the day today. And even if it does erode, it looks to do so behind the cold frontal boundary when the best forcing has already passed. Still, should thunderstorms manage to break through, plenty of instability is available along with adequate shear for half dollar size hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph. With 0 to 6 km bulk shear vectors remaining near parallel to the cold frontal boundary, damaging winds remain the most likely hazard type overall. Beyond this evening, strong shortwave energy in southwesterly flow aloft brings the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms initially entering the southwest tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will then expand across the area Monday morning, persisting through Monday night, and potentially lingering into Tuesday. As they approach the southwest tonight, there is a low chance that a strong to severe storm or two could enter southwestern ND. For Monday, a risk for severe weather remains for most locations along the ND/SD border and between the I94 corridor. However, models suggest that despite adequate shear, there won`t be a lot of instability to work with in the CWA (Dickey County and west). A few strong to severe storms are thus possible on Monday should they be able to find a pocket of enhanced instability, but overall general thunderstorms with small hail seem to be the primary storm type. Expect dry conditions Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. After which, a longwave trough, perhaps with cut-off low pressure, slides through southern Canada. There is a good chance this impacts portions of the state, especially the eastern half. The NBM already has around a 60 percent chance of rain for the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains Wednesday evening. CSU machine learning suggests a low risk for severe thunderstorms from this system, though details on this will evolve over the next few days. Beyond that, conditions are favored to dry out for the tail end of the week. Overall, temperatures for this week beyond this afternoon are expected to be seasonable to seasonably cool for most locations, most days. This translates to highs mostly in the low 70s to low 80s, and lows mostly in the mid 40s to mid 50s. That said, temperatures are unlikely to be consistent day to day and there will be some variability like a small roller coaster at a traveling carnival. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected through the period at all sites. However, we will have increasing rain and thunderstorm chances starting over the southwest tonight, spreading to the rest of western and central North Dakota overnight and through the day on Monday. The best chances for some thunderstorms will be across the south but elsewhere we could see some scattered to numerous showers. What is still a bit uncertain is exactly when and where the heavier rain/storms may track (generally across the far southwest and south central is favored). For this reason, we heavily leaned on vicinity wording except for KDIK this evening. Any heavier storm could lead to brief IFR/MVFR visibility categories and/or brief gusty and erratic winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
827 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2024 .DISCUSSION...Upper low was in southeast Idaho this evening and moving northeastward. Radar showed light showers in eastern Elmore and Valley Counties/ID. Thunderstorms formed near the southeast corner of Twin Falls County but are currently in southeast Idaho. Warming and drying are now forecast for our CWA through Tuesday, then windy and cooler Wednesday as an upper trough passes by to our north, then warming again into the weekend. Latest HRRR model spreads near-surface smoke in Boise and Payette NFs southward Monday but stops it north of the Snake Basin. The rest of our CWA should stay relatively smoke-free through Monday night. Current forecast is on track. No updates. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Areas of MVFR/IFR and mountain obscuration in smoke near wildfires. Isolated showers/ thunderstorms over central Idaho decreasing tonight. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-10 kt, then W-SW 5-15 kt by 18Z/Mon. KBOI...VFR and haze. W-NW winds 4-7 kt, becoming generally S-SE 2-5 kt overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with an upper trough are still on track to develop in central Idaho (east of Idaho City) and far s-central Idaho (south of Twin Falls) this afternoon before ending later this evening, although the coverage has shifted farther to the east and south based on latest model trends. A short-wave upper ridge develops on Monday between the exiting trough to the east and an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska, bringing dry conditions, warmer temperatures, and light winds. The upper low and associated moisture will remain well to our north on Tuesday, but it will drag a dry cold front through the region late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Gusty southwest winds to 35 mph develop ahead of the front in the afternoon, followed by gusty post-frontal northwest winds behind it. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer ahead of the front with highs near to slightly above normal. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... Dry conditions and breezy post-frontal northwest winds continue into Wednesday (especially east of Boise), along with cooler temperatures. Deterministic models and ensembles remain in excellent agreement in showing an upper ridge developing later in the week for continued dry conditions and a warming trend with highs returning to above normal levels by Friday. The models also depict an upper low resining off the west coast next weekend allowing for a south-southwest flow aloft to develop over our area. This transition could bring monsoon moisture from the southwest for a slight chance (less than 25 percent) of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday. Temperatures are favored to remain above normal with valley highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....SP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1121 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide east of the region today as a weak trough of low pressure approaches from the northwest. An upper low will cross the area Monday then exit across the Maritimes Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 11:20 PM Update...A few spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms remain over the highlands with a current remnant area of thunderstorms over west central Piscataquis County. Otherwise, forecast looks on track with isolated to scattered showers generally remaining over western areas tonight. Fog continues to approach the Downeast coast and will likely affect coastal areas overnight. Previous Discussion... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Central Highlands and into the Crown this late afternoon with 1000-1200j/kg of SBCAPE across areas mainly NW of I-95 corridor. Best areas producing lightning are NW of Moosehead and W of Baxter SP to the tip of the Crown near Estcourt Station. This is where latest RAP analysis has SB LIs around -3. There is virtually no shear given the approaching upper level low. These storms will be popcorn in nature given no shear but cannot rule out small hail with more robust cores as temperatures aloft slowly cool. Expecting these storms to last into the early evening but thunderstorms weaken as the sun goes down with the ~7:25PM sunset. Through the night a 500mb low drifts south in Quebec with calming winds. Isolated showers remain possible t9:19 PM Update...Forecast remains on track at this time. Fog bank is beginning to push into the Downeast coast, with Machias reporting visibility of one-half mile. Expect areas of locally dense fog to develop near the Downeast coast as the night goes on. Further inland, patchy fog will be possible, mainly in areas where rain showers fell today.hrough the night given the upper level low. Temperatures tonight fall back into the mid to upper 50s with a few 60F readings from Millinocket to Bangor. Expecting patchy to areas of fog to develop but from 2 different processes. Inland expecting raditional fog to develop with calm winds and especially in locations that get rainfall to moisten the boundary layer. Across the Downeast coast a fog bank will advect inland off the Gulf of Maine and may become dense in spots. Tomorrow, the upper level low will drift south basically through Central Maine around the CAR/GYX CWA lines. Temperatures aloft cool given the upper level low overhead as surface temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s and a few upper 70s. Winds remain light and variable and skies are partly sunny. Expecting daytime heating to result in 800-1300j/kg of SBCAPE and expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop. Given the cooling aloft expecting more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop. Cannot rule out once again small hail but confidence is low at this point because once again shear is near zero. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper low exits across the Maritimes Monday night, with surface high pressure building late. A chance of showers/thunderstorms will persist into Monday evening. Showers/thunderstorms then end overnight with the loss of diurnal heating and exiting upper low leaving partly cloudy skies overnight. A cold front begins to approach later Tuesday, though the timing of the front is still uncertain. Generally expect partly sunny skies Tuesday. However, if the more rapid frontal progression is correct could also have the slight chance/chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms across northern areas. A more rapid frontal progression could bring the cold front across the region Tuesday night, with a slower progression delaying the frontal crossing to Wednesday. Will include a chance of showers/thunderstorms north, slight chance Downeast, Tuesday night. Will include a chance of showers/thunderstorms regionwide Wednesday, though a more rapid front could diminish chances particularly across northern areas. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday will be dependent on the eventual timing of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will begin to build toward the region later Wednesday night. High pressure is expected Thursday into Friday with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. High pressure is then expected to begin exiting across the Maritimes later Friday into Saturday, with a developing return flow and warm front in the wake of high pressure. However, how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain. More rapidly exiting high pressure could allow a warm front to approach Friday night then cross the region Saturday with a chance of showers. Slower model solutions delay the warm front into Sunday. The timing of a possible cold front later Sunday is also uncertain. Will include a chance of showers/thunderstorms Sunday. Slightly below normal level temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday, returning to near normal levels Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR through this evening. IFR/LIFR after 03-04z at BHB due to BR/FG. BCFG/BR may reduce vsby at remaining terms after 06z. Variable winds less than 5kt tonight. VCSH at all terms tonight. Tomorrow turning MVFR/VFR by mid morning with VCSH/-SHRA expected by midday with VCTS possible. S-SW winds around 5kt. SHORT TERM: Monday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, early. Variable conditions with any fog overnight. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Tuesday...Variable conditions with any fog early. Otherwise, generally VFR. A slight chance/chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms north. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Tuesday night through Wednesday...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms dependent on the timing of a cold front. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with a possible slight chance of showers or thunderstorms early. VFR late. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Thursday through Friday...Generally VFR. However, variable conditions with any river valley fog Thursday night. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots Thursday. Light and variable winds Thursday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tomorrow evening. S winds this evening shifting SE tomorrow generally less than 5kt. Seas 1ft or less through tomorrow. Fog will reduce vsby at times less than 1nm through tomorrow. Water temperatures from the Downeast coast out 25nm generally 55-60F with a few 60-63F close to 25nm offshore. Water temperatures off Coastal Washington County to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay are in the low to mid 50s. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Monday night through Wednesday. A chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, Wednesday. Patchy fog Monday night into Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Clark/Sinko/Bloomer Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Clark/Sinko/Norcross Marine...Clark/Sinko/Norcross
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1124 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will build into the region during the first half of this week. A dying cold front will likely push into the region Wednesday, then stall out in the vicinity of Southern Pennsylvania late this week. A more potent cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will likely push through the area next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Surface ridging should supply most of Central PA with fair weather and light winds overnight. However, can`t completely rule out an isolated late evening shower across the southwest corner of the forecast area, where satellite imagery shows cumulus with decent vertical development and SPC mesoanalysis indicates some instability. Similar to recent nights, mostly clear skies and a calm wind should result in patchy late night valley fog, primarily in the favored deep river/stream valleys north of I-80. Low pwats across the northern mountains favors efficient radiational cooling and min temps a bit below NBM guidance over that part of the state. Expect readings at daybreak to range from the mid 50s in the coolest valleys near the NY border, to the mid 60s over parts of the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface ridging and associated low-pwat air over Eastern PA should ensure fair weather Monday across most of the forecast area. However, surging low level moisture in the vicinity of an approaching warm front is likely to support scattered convection across the Laurel Highlands and South-Central Mtns. Progged CAPEs near 1000 J/kg, combined with modestly enhanced mid level flow on the back side of an upper trough over New England, could support a few strong to borderline severe tstorms over this area. Mixing down 850mb temps of around 16C translates to expected highs Monday afternoon in the 80s. Any showers/thunderstorms across the southwest part of the forecast area should taper off Monday evening with the loss of instability. Mostly clear skies and calm wind under surface ridge should once again result in patchy late night valley fog. Dewpoints creeping upward should result in a somewhat milder night, with min temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Upper level ridging building into PA should result in fair and very warm conditions Tuesday. EPS mean 850mb temps of 18-19C support highs ranging from the mid 80s over the N Mtns, to the low 90s in the southern valleys. Falling heights and surging low level moisture ahead of an upstream cold front over the Grt Lks will bring the potential of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday night across primarily the NW Mtns. A better chance of showers/thunderstorms will come Wednesday, as the cold front drops south toward PA. The highest POPs are near the NY border, closest to the position of the front Wed PM. Dewpoints surging into the upper 60s to low 70s Wednesday combined with progged high temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s will result in elevated heat indices, which could potentially exceed 100F across the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Medium range guidance is in relatively good agreement with the large scale pattern late week into next weekend, with upper level ridging building over the region Thu/Fri, then an upstream trough arriving Saturday. At the surface, the bulk of guidance stalls the approaching cold front over PA Thursday, resulting in another very warm and humid day with scattered mainly PM convection. Abundant cloud cover is likely to result in lower temps than Wed, especially over the north. The front is then likely to slip south of the region by Friday. High pressure building across New England and the resulting southeast flow off of the Atlantic is likely to result in a cloudy and relatively cool Friday. An upstream trough is progged to approach from the Grt Lks late this week with the associated low level jet overrunning the stalled front south of PA. This scenario should result in a period of rain showers Fri PM into part of Saturday. Current guidance suggests most of Central PA will see an occluded front passage Saturday, as the triple point low passes south of the state. This scenario points to a low risk of severe weather. Latest ensemble plumes indicate most likely areal average rainfall late Friday into Saturday of between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. A return to fair and seasonable conditions currently looks likely by Sunday, as surface ridging builds in behind the front. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SCT deck of clouds remain in place over mainly western Pennsylvania as of 00Z observations this evening with some thinning of the cloud deck possible overnight. Generally expect a FEW-SCT deck ~8-10kft to continue throughout the next couple of hours across central TAF sites (AOO/UNV/MDT) with some clearing elsewhere. The main concern in the overnight will be valley fog formation similar to Saturday night, with BFD/IPT the most likely to experience restrictions at this time. While 12Z HREF guidance did outline lower probabilities (< 20%) of IFR visibilities at BFD, this TAF package outlines a TEMPO group in the 05-06Z timeframe based slightly off of persistence. The main driver for including these restrictions were compared to yesterday`s trends in dewpoint depressions and overall saturation in RAP model BUFKIT soundings. There is lower confidence (< 20%) in restrictions at the airfield in the 06-12Z Monday timeframe, so have limited those mentions to VCFG in this forecast cycle. At IPT, there is slightly higher (30-40%) confidence in seeing sub-VFR restrictions in the 10-12Z Monday timeframe with lower confidence towards the onset of restrictions. There is also potential for fog formation at UNV (valley fog) and JST (higher confidence if rain makes it into the airfield, seems unlikely at this time) but have kept these mentions out of the 00Z TAF package due to lower confidence. Showers across SW PA are expected near to just after sunrise on Monday with JST/AOO the most likely to experience any restrictions based on lower ceilings/visibilities. A combination of LAMP/RAP guidance keeps low-end VFR conditions; however, some heavier showers/storms could bring about sub-VFR conditions generally in the 16Z-19Z Monday timeframe. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the daytime hours. Outlook... Tue...Patchy AM fog. Restrictions possible. Wed...SHRA across N PA overspreads area with PM TSRA possible. Thu-Fri...PM TSRA possible area wide. Restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Banghoff LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...NPB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
542 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each day with high rain chances west of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will be a few degrees above average though not as hot as we have been. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2024 UL high is centered over SE`rn KS this afternoon and is slowly shifting to the northeast. Nevertheless, its ridge axis is oriented to the southwest, crossing through the CWA into Northern Chihuahua. For this afternoon, decent moisture, mostly upper- level with fair surface moisture, is centered over NM. In spite of the better moisture, it looks like today will be a down day thanks to two factors. First, 12z EPZ sounding shows a decent inversion around 450 mb and early morning cloud coverage has limited instability across the western half of the CWA. HRRR insists the western half of the CWA will see at least isolated thunderstorms today, with a slow initiation. WV imagery does hint at some upper- level divergence, so it`s not completely unreasonable. Either way, expect conditions similar to or a bit quieter than yesterday. The UL high`s influence begins to weaken for the area on Monday though the GFS is weaker with the high than the Euro. Monsoonal moisture plume more or less remains unchanged, favoring areas west of the Rio Grande. Thus, tomorrow should feature isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially west. Tuesday`s forecast remains a challenge. Models continue to struggle with a wave/closed low over the Gulf of Mexico. It will move ashore tomorrow and track up the Rio Grande Valley. It does not bring any impact for Monday, but for Tuesday, its position will determine if we remain within the monsoonal plume or within subsidence ahead of the feature. The NBM 25-75th percentile 500 mb RH spread is 30-40% with the widest spread across the RGV. So wettest scenario is scattered thunderstorms west with lesser coverage east. A drier scenario will be few if any storms, including mountains. The feature more or less stalls over Texas while weakening for Wednesday but becomes a non-player for us the rest of the period. Nevertheless, the forecast is muddy next week and into the weekend. The overall pattern is consistent with a weakening high centered to our north and well to our east, keeping our area within the monsoonal plume. What is not clear is the strength of features rotating around the high as well as the strength of the high itself. These important details will mean the difference of a monsoonal pattern we`re used to with isolated to scattered lowland storms and above normal rainfall. On the topic of temperatures, today will be the warmest day of the period. We will "cool" some through mid-week then hold steady or warm slightly the last half of the week. In terms of 100-degree weather for El Paso, after today, the there are no 100s in the forecast, not even at the 75th percentile. There are a couple 99s at that percentile though. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Sct shwrs and tstms will persist through the early portion of the TAF period. Convection will favor areas across the centrl mts and wwd, with activity diminishing aft 26/06Z. Shwrs may persist across portions of the Gila overnight. VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period with the exception of direct hits to terminals by tstms. This may cause brief MVFR conditions due to reductions in cigs/vsbys. Clear wx in the morning will give way to isold and sct shwrs and tstms again in the aftn with gusty outflow winds being the primary impacts to terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Monsoonal moisture will remain in place throughout the period, which will lead to afternoon thunderstorm chances. The best chance for storms will be west of the Rio Grande, and especially the Gila. Temperatures will cool some as well, which will keep min RH values in the 20s during the afternoon. Winds, apart from the thunderstorms, will be light. Little variation in the forecast is expected through mid-week. Venting will range fair to very good for Monday but will become poor to good for the rest of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 96 73 95 / 20 20 30 20 Sierra Blanca 66 88 64 87 / 10 20 10 20 Las Cruces 72 94 69 92 / 30 20 60 40 Alamogordo 67 91 65 89 / 20 40 50 50 Cloudcroft 51 67 49 65 / 20 70 40 70 Truth or Consequences 68 90 66 88 / 50 40 60 60 Silver City 62 86 60 82 / 60 70 60 80 Deming 69 94 67 92 / 40 20 60 40 Lordsburg 68 93 65 89 / 40 50 60 70 West El Paso Metro 75 94 72 93 / 20 20 40 30 Dell City 68 93 65 93 / 0 20 10 20 Fort Hancock 70 95 68 94 / 10 20 20 20 Loma Linda 67 87 65 86 / 10 20 20 30 Fabens 72 94 70 94 / 10 10 20 20 Santa Teresa 72 93 70 92 / 20 20 50 30 White Sands HQ 72 93 70 92 / 30 30 50 40 Jornada Range 70 92 67 90 / 40 30 60 50 Hatch 69 95 67 93 / 50 30 60 50 Columbus 71 93 69 91 / 30 10 50 30 Orogrande 69 91 66 89 / 10 30 40 40 Mayhill 54 79 53 78 / 10 70 40 70 Mescalero 54 79 52 76 / 20 70 50 70 Timberon 53 78 51 76 / 10 60 40 60 Winston 55 82 54 80 / 50 70 50 80 Hillsboro 63 90 62 88 / 50 50 60 70 Spaceport 66 92 65 89 / 50 40 60 60 Lake Roberts 55 84 54 79 / 60 70 60 90 Hurley 64 89 61 86 / 50 60 60 70 Cliff 61 95 60 91 / 50 70 50 80 Mule Creek 62 87 60 84 / 50 70 50 80 Faywood 65 88 62 85 / 50 50 60 70 Animas 67 93 66 91 / 50 40 60 60 Hachita 67 92 65 89 / 40 30 50 50 Antelope Wells 66 92 65 89 / 40 30 40 50 Cloverdale 63 88 62 84 / 50 40 50 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1043 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight into early Monday morning. No severe weather is expected. - Expect heat and humidity to build on Monday and Tuesday. Monday looks to be the warmest day, with heat indices reaching 100 to 105 degrees south of a line from Wausau to Keshena to Oconto, and away from the lakeshore. A Heat Advisory has been issued. Impactful heat continues on Tuesday for some, when heat indices may once again reach 100 to 105 degrees over parts of central Wisconsin and the Fox Valley. - Some strong to severe storms will be possible Monday evening into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Will continue to monitor convective trends due to forecast uncertainty. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a warm front stretching across southern Minnesota into southern Wisconsin early this afternoon. Eroding of the low stratus is starting to accelerate over Minnesota, while broken low and mid clouds are surging northeast over Wisconsin. No precipitation has been observed across the region today due to warm mid-level temperatures. Heat indices are reaching into the lower 90s over parts of central Wisconsin and the Fox Valley. As the warm front lifts north, forecast challenges include excessive heat and shower/thunderstorm potential. The RAP and NAM indicate that the warm front will slowly lift north into central and east-central Wisconsin by late tonight as the beefy mid-level ridge continues to build aloft. As the warm front approaches, these models indicate backing low level winds and increasing moisture convergence north of the warm front from late this evening into overnight. Forecast soundings indicate that the increasing low level saturation and lift will erode the mid-level cap resulting in elevated instability of around 1500 j/kg. Forcing is relatively weak, but seems sufficient to keep a low chance (15-25%) of showers and storms in the forecast over central, east-central, and far northeast WI from late evening into early Monday morning. No severe weather is forecast due to the light wind fields aloft. Thereafter, the cap appears to reassert itself, making the thunderstorm potential as low for the rest of the day, with the exception of over north-central WI late in the afternoon when a cold front approaches from the northwest. With the approaching warm front, light easterly, upslope flow will be favorable for low stratus and visibilities after midnight into Tuesday morning. Upstream obs suggested the stratus expanded rapidly between 1 and 4 am last night, and do not see why it would be different tonight. Guidance generally points to areas north and west of the Fox Valley for the greatest potential of lower visibilities below 2 miles, but cloud cover may also prevent dense fog from developing. With heat indices forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s over far northern WI on Monday, have considered expanding the Heat Advisory. However, cloud trends upstream suggest confidence is considerably lower over far northern WI due to cloud cover potential that could slow the heating curve. Will let later shifts take another look. As a result, no change to the current Heat Advisory headlines. Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday Main focus will be the ongoing heat and humidity Monday night into Tuesday and the threat for one, two or possibly three rounds of strong to severe storms Monday evening through Tuesday. Confidence is increasing that we will get storms, but plenty of uncertainty with the details as subtle/mesoscale features in play and issues with a capping inversion prohibiting storm development and intensification. Heat & Humidity: Ridging will continue to expand into the western Great Lakes Monday night, then start to break down on Tuesday as a trough approaches from the northern Plains. After a hot day on Monday, temps will only drop into the mid to upper 60s across northern WI and into the low to mid 70s across central and east central WI, making for a very warm and muggy night. With a warm start to the day, another very warm and humid day is expected on Tuesday, but we will need to contend with left over clouds/fog/showers/storms (see below) which may hamper temps climbing into the 90s. However, with dewpoints expected to remaining the low to mid 70s, possibly a few upper 70s if some higher dewpoints can pool ahead of the front, heat index readings in the 90s to around 100 are expected, highest in the Fox Valley. Considered expanding the current Heat Advisory into Tuesday for the Fox Valley or going with an Excessive Heat Watch, but just not enough confidence with the uncertainty and temps are likely to be a little cooler than points to our south. So after collaboration with surrounding offices, will leave heat headlines as is for now. Cooler and less humid air arrives on Wednesday and continues through the end of the week, but readings look to remain pretty closer to normal, with still a summer-like feel in the air for most of the area with highs mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s, along with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s. Storm Chances & Severe Weather Potential: Confidence continues to increase that at least a round or two of strong to severe storms will push across the area Monday evening into Tuesday with plenty of instability and shear in place. Need to watch for a possible pop up shower/storm early Monday evening as the Lake Superior lake breeze may be able to touch of some isolated activity, but the cap should hold things in check for the most part. Then attention turns to the west as a shortwave and frontal boundary will generate clusters of showers and storms which will head east toward the area. The 12z HRRR showing a rather ominous scenario with a shortwave kicking off convection over MN and racing eastward/possibly expanding through the day, then arriving around/a little after midnight across north central WI. Then another complex arriving in central WI later in the night that makes a run at the Fox Valley toward sunrise Tuesday. RAP/NAM/NAMNest/ARW all have similar looking scenarios playing out, which increases confidence, but with the subtle shortwave energy and boundaries around, still hard to pin down if this exact scenario will play out. While any complex of storms headed into the area will likely be held together by the pool of 1000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE and damaging winds would be the primary hazard, there will be issues with getting the stronger winds down to the surface as the capping inversion looks to remain in place. This will especially be in the case later in the night when instability slowly decreases. However, an organized MCS with an established cold push should be able to erode/erase the cap. SPC has shifted the slight risk a little eastward with the Day 2 afternoon update, with the thinking that the complex will be able to produce some damaging winds at least into parts of central and north central WI. Enough evidence now to increase PoPs for much of the area Monday evening into early Tuesday. On Tuesday, how much left over showers/clouds in the morning, and the location of any surface boundaries, will determine just how warm/hot and unstable we can get through the day. Will also need to fight the capping inversion that is forecast to remain in place. So it is still looking like a boom or bust scenario, as if storms can fire, the atmosphere looks to be pretty conducive for severe storms. Bulk shear of ~35-50 kts, 1500-3000 J/kg CAPE (possible in excess of 4000 J/kg with higher dewpoints and temps), a moist boundary layer and steep lapse rates would bring all severe weather threats into play. This would include isolated tornadoes, with 0-3 km SRH values between 200 and 300 supporting some discrete, rotating storms. Unless clouds really stick around longer than expected and/or dewpoints under-perform, think we can get at least some isolated to scattered convection to fire as the shortwave and front arrive. But just how widespread the activity gets remains in question. Impressive PWATs between 1.5-2.0" Monday night through Tuesday will bring the threat for heavy rain and localized flooding. The stretch of dry weather and any storms should have decent forward motion will likely limit any widespread issues. But isolated flooding will be possible in low-lying, poor drainage and urban areas if/where storms move over the same locations and due to the heavy rain rates. Quiet conditions are expected on Wednesday, with the next round of showers and storms arriving Thursday into early Friday as another shortwave and frontal boundary push across the Great Lakes. Fog / Low Cloud Potential: Will be monitoring for fog development on Lake Michigan as dewpoints climb early in the week. Water temps at/near their climatological peak, with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s across most of the lake. With dewpoints expected to be at least in the low to mid 70s, thinking the threat for fog will increase through the day on Monday and Monday night and ahead of the front on Tuesday. But lake fog is rather finicky as a degree or two with either the water temp or dewpoints making all the difference. Will throw in some patchy fog Monday night into Tuesday to at least get some fog in the forecast and see how play out. For inland locations, with the elevated dewpoints and light winds, some patchy fog is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. Based on upstream obs/trends, may turn out to be more of a low stratus deck, especially with a light upslope wind. Best chances for the fog and low clouds look to be northwest of the Fox Valley, and will give a healthy boost to cloud cover. The MCS could also throw a wrench into where any fog forms as well. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 A challenging forecast with respect to ceilings, visibilities, and shower coverage over the next 24 hours. Recent surface analysis suggests a warm front is now oriented from western to southern WI. Moisture convergence near the front is resulting in patches of low VFR cigs over much of WI. Warm front will lift slowly north through daybreak Monday into central to east-central WI. Light easterly, upslope flow will be present north of the warm front, making it conducive for low stratus and fog development after midnight. Judging by upstream obs earlier, if stratus/fog develop, it will be very slow to erode on Monday morning. Continued to be more pessimistic with regards to ceilings over central and north- central WI late tonight into Monday morning. Confidence still lower over the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas, so maintained low end VFR ceilings there. Eventually clouds will scatter out or clear out on Monday afternoon, though scattered low-end VFR may persist over northern WI closer to warm front. The warm front could also trigger a few showers and storms overnight into Monday morning as the mid-level cap attempts to erode with increasing low level moisture. Have a VCSH mention for central WI to east-central WI TAF sites. No showers or storms are expected beyond this into Monday afternoon. Next chance for showers and storms will be across northern WI late Monday evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>039-045-048-049-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC/Bersch AVIATION.......JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
914 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Our broken record pattern continued today, with a similar story to last night also expected for the rest of tonight. Showers streaming onshore have been mainly confined to coastal southeast GA over the past few hours, where a weak little surface swirl drifted southward this evening and enhanced surface convergence a bit. High res guidance is overall a little bit split with respect to amount of showers and isolated thunder affecting coasts north of Saint Augustine for the rest of the night, with the HRRR almost completely absent of any activity most of the night. However, given the persistent pattern and weak low pressure still spinning offshore, expecting at least isolated showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to continue for the overnight hours, mainly for eastern Duval/Nassau/Camden/Glynn Counties. Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening for these same areas, which are quiet saturated from the past few days. Otherwise, any remaining convection further inland will wane through the next few hours, with some lower clouds at times moving across the area the rest of the night. Low temps range from mid to upper 70s for the coasts and furthest south to low 70s inland further north and west. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Northeasterly flow will continue Monday and steadily become easterly on Tuesday, as high pressure begins to move in and shifts the frontal boundary south of the area. Onshore flow will continue the trend of showers during the morning hours. With the amount of rain from the past few days, localized flooding will be an issue for those locations which have seen the highest precipitation amounts. The Flood Watch has been extended until Monday evening for Duval and Nassau counties in NE FL in addition to Camden and Glynn counties in SE GA. Diurnal heating will allow for some shower and storms to develop over the inland areas during the afternoon hours. With drier air dipping into SE GA as the high pressure moves, most activity will be focused over NE FL on Tuesday. Daytime highs in the upper 80s for SE GA and the lower 90s for NE FL on Monday. By Tuesday most locations will see highs in the lower 90s with coastal location topping out near the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 High pressure building over the eastern CONUS will bring in dry air (< 1.5" PWAT values) over the region, limiting the chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. Precipitation chances will improve by the weekend as a trough begins to move through the Florida peninsula bringing in moist air, with PWAT values rebounding to about 2". Heat index values will sit near mainly in the upper 90s, with some locations nearing the 105F mark, for this period. High temperatures will be near normal through the period along the coast to around 90 and rise to above normal levels into the low to mid 90s inland through the end of the week. Lows will remain a few degrees above normal in the mid to upper 70s along the coast and near normal in the low 70s inland due to drier air. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to prevail for all sites except SGJ overnight and into Monday Morning. IFR is expected to be most prevalent at JAX/VQQ and GNV at this time where prevailing IFR is forecast. Went as far as adding prevailing LIFR at GNV: though LIFR was not included at JAX/VQQ at this time, TEMPO to possible prevailing groups may be needed at these sites towards pre sunrise. Conditions should gradually improve through mid to late morning Monday, though MVFR is likely to continue into the day for at least SSI and possibly other terminals. Given trends over the past few days, have opted not to include any mention of thunder at any terminals at this time for Monday afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 A stationary front will linger over the local northeast Florida waters today through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the Mid- Atlantic region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will periodically impact our local waters as onshore winds continue. The front will gradually dissipate by midweek and shift southward as high pressure settles over the southeastern region. This pattern transition will gradually decrease in showers and thunderstorms across our local waters and return a more typical east coast sea breeze regime through the end of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today and Monday as NNE to ENE winds continue over the local waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 87 72 89 71 / 20 10 50 0 SSI 85 77 88 78 / 20 30 50 10 JAX 85 75 89 75 / 20 20 60 10 SGJ 87 77 90 77 / 10 30 60 10 GNV 88 73 90 73 / 40 30 70 10 OCF 90 74 93 74 / 40 30 70 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ024-124-125-225-325- 425. GA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for GAZ153-154-165-166. AM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
636 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity continue through tomorrow, with a widespread area of heat indices reaching 105 or greater. This coupled with low temperatures falling into the mid 70s tonight will lead to a prolonged period of excessive heat. - SPC`s severe weather outlook highlights an Enhanced risk (3 out of 5) across all of S MN into W WI for late Monday afternoon into Monday night. - Initial thunderstorm development is expected over E SD Monday afternoon. Supercells will track east into SW MN and gradually grow upscale into bowing MCS. This increases the likelihood of damaging winds for southern and central Minnesota Monday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 GOES imagery highlights a pesky layer of stratus clouds across the region early this afternoon. These clouds have been slow to dissipate so far but hints of scattering are beginning to show on satellite. One "benefit" of the cloud cover is the slightly cooler temperatures through early afternoon. Current heat indices are also cooler, only in the low to mid 90s, with some locations still on track to see values in the low 100s. Excessive Heat warnings & advisories remain in effect with the stretch of heat & humidity in place through Monday evening with little to no break overnight tonight. SPCs SWO day 1 continues to paint a sliver of Slight and Marginal risk across our northwestern counties in west-central Minnesota. Latest guidance matches up with observational trends that keep any convection this evening and overnight up in northern Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. There is always an amount of uncertainty with nocturnal convection so with that in mind there is 15 to 25 PoPs in C MN overnight. Tonight`s low temperatures cool down into the lower to mid 70s offer no relief from the swamp-like airmass. On Monday, confidence has increased with respect to the heat & potential severe weather late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Monday morning will feel similar to today yet a touch warmer/muggier. A surface cold front is progged to extend from NE MN through W SD early on. This front will be the focus of potential convection later on. Pesky cloud cover will be slow to scatter with mostly sunny skies emerging in the afternoon. This will allow temperatures to warm up quickly with highs in the low 90s. Heat indices will hit into the 100-110F range across much of the forecast area. More notably, wet bulb globe temperatures are forecast to hit into the upper 80s on Monday. It may be easier said than done but please take preventative measures if you`re working outdoor doors. Take breaks. Stay hydrated. Find shade. Limit strenuous work if possible. This type of heat only occurs once or twice a Summer and we`ve gotten "lucky" so far. So these conditions will support the Excessive heat warning across much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin that go into effect tomorrow. For severe potential, the water is much less muddy than it was for yesterday`s forecast. Guidance keeps southern Minnesota dry through most of the day. Our time frame of concern appears to be 22Z through 05Z Tuesday for convection. Looking into forecast soundings reveals a stout cap in place Monday morning. This capping will gradually erode throughout the day before convective initiation occurs late Monday afternoon/early evening. Our capping allows for strong to extreme instability to pool in the warm sector that`ll fuel convection. Shear will be adequate, 40+ kts, and steep lapse rates of 7.5-8.0+ C/km across eastern SD into western MN. Supercells initiate over eastern SD before moving into SW MN. Thunderstorms will grow upscale into bowing MCS that moves across S MN into the Twin Cities early Monday night. Initial storm mode will support all severe hazards before transitioning to a severe wind/hail/heavy rain threat as the convection moves east throughout the night. There is still some uncertainty on placement of initiation & timing. Earlier timing like the 18Z HRRR would likely favor severe threat continuing further east into MN and WI. Later timing should limit the spread of severe threat further east. A very favorable environment appears likely across S MN Monday afternoon. An approaching SFC low will track through S MN/N IA overnight into Tuesday. Storms nearest to the SFC low will have higher probability for a tornado threat given the enhanced shear. SPC expanded the enhanced risk for SWO day 2 further north/east covering much of our forecast area now. The enhanced risk (3/5) did include the addition of hatching for the wind threat signaling the likelihood of a bowing MCS to track across southern Minnesota Monday evening into Monday night. Monday night through Tuesday will feature convection along tracking along the cold front overnight into Tuesday morning. There is some concern that even the potential for training convection Monday night may lead to potential for flash flooding, especially in the TC Metro. Severe potential will shift east for Tuesday afternoon and we`ll begin to dry out for the second part of the day as the front slides southeast. Now for the good news. Behind the front will see the return of northwestern flow aloft. This will usher is a much more comfortable, drier air mass for the second half of the work week. High temperatures will be in the low 80s Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through Sunday will feature additional precipitation chances Thursday before a very pleasant holiday weekend for Labor day. High temperatures will range in the mid to upper 70s throughout with less humidity to deal with. Thursday`s precipitation chances sees the return of convection across the region as another cold front moves through the Upper Midwest. Behind this front will be a taste of Fall with dew points in the 50s. A surface high pressure will keep things dry Friday thru Sunday before it shifts east and allows for a gradual warm up after Labor day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 The hot and humid air mass will remain with us overnight and into Monday. This means that as temperatures fall overnight saturation will lead to fog and low clouds. IFR to MVFR with some isolated LIFR is expected, especially Monday morning. As temperatures rise in the morning this should clear out the fog. How persistent the low clouds are is still uncertain. Most likely they lift back to VFR by late morning to early afternoon, but as we saw today with this kind of air mass sometimes this takes a lot longer to occur. Monday evening to Monday night should see thunderstorms develop and move across the region. So far have only mentioned this in the MSP TAF since the most likely time is after 00Z. Areas farther to the west like RWF should see the storms first as they are expected to track west to east. KMSP...Now that the ceiling has lifted to VFR it should remain VFR for the remainder of the evening into the earlier part of tonight. We could see the return on the low MVFR ceilings again tonight. The urban heat island near MSP should help keep the terminal area warmer and therefor less likely to see the fog that could form at other airports. If we cool faster than expected, fog will form as saturation is reached. Thunderstorms are expected to fire in the evening into Monday night period with heavy rain and high winds as possible threats. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chance TSRA/MVFR early. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. THU...Chance TSRA/MVFR. Wind S becoming W 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Douglas- Morrison-Pope-Todd. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Benton-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Mille Lacs-Stearns. Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for Chisago-Freeborn- Goodhue-Isanti-McLeod-Meeker-Rice-Sherburne-Steele-Waseca- Wright. Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for Chisago-Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti-McLeod-Meeker-Rice- Sherburne-Steele-Waseca-Wright. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Lac Qui Parle. Heat Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Swift. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Hennepin-Le Sueur- Martin-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Scott-Sibley- Washington-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for Dunn-Pepin-Pierce-Polk- St. Croix. Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...NDC