Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/23/24


Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
348 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Intense heat will continue over eastern NM with temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, central and western NM will see relief from the heat with increasing chances of showers and storms through the weekend. Some of this activity may become strong with strong winds, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. By Sunday and Monday, moisture will spread even farther east with much needed relief to the heat over eastern NM. Slow storm motions across the entire region early next week will allow for more locally heavy rainfall and an elevated risk for flash flooding just about anywhere. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 345 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Transition to a more active pattern is underway, with water-vapor satellite imagery suggesting that the monsoonal plume has been pulled further east than modeled previously. RAP analysis suggests the H5 high centroid has already migrated to far southwestern OK, along the Red River. Hence, chances for thunderstorms moving into the middle Rio Grande Valley, including the ABQ Metro, have been bumped up to 30-40% for late afternoon into early evening. Gusty outflow winds from storms which have already begun firing further west are likely as well, some of which may help trigger said storms. Short-term model guidance also suggesting that modest short-wave trough aloft will round the northwest flank of the upper high, keeping shower and storm chances going well into the evening for northwestern New Mexico before winding down around midnight. WPC has maintained the Slight Risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for west-central and northwestern NM for today/tonight as well. With storms moving at a pretty good clip, toward the NE at 10-20 mph, though, training of storms over the same area several times would probably be needed to generate flash flooding. Both the HPCC burn scar and those near Ruidoso are on the edge of the monsoonal plume, so, combined with the storm motions, not expecting problematic rainfall on either at this time. Tomorrow, with little change in the overall pattern, similar weather is expected. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated to develop, mainly along and west of the central mountain chain. Highest coverage should again be along an axis from the Gila National Forest up toward the Tusas Mountains. At this point, not anticipating a need for any Flash Flood Watches through Friday, though that would largely depend on how much rainfall accumulates over western zones through this evening. And of course, the big story over the eastern/southeastern plains remains the ongoing late August heat. Current Heat Advisory for these areas is verifying well, as Roswell has already reached 105F this afternoon, with Cannon AFB hitting 102, and several mesonet sites around Tucumcari reaching 103-104F. Guidance is trending a degree or two "cooler" for Friday vs. today. Went ahead and hoisted a Heat Advisory for the Chaves County Plains (including Roswell), for starters, from 12 Noon to 8 PM again on Friday. Forecast high at KROW is 104F, but again, with Major to pockets of Extreme Heat Risk, felt it was better to err on the side of caution. Will leave to future shifts to contemplate an expansion. Curry and Roosevelt counties might be prime candidates, with a high of 102F forecast for Clovis, which would eclipse the previous record for the date by 6 degrees F (!). Probabilistic guidance for Quay County even hitting 100F was rather low, so probably won`t be needing an advisory there. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 By Saturday and Sunday, the overall longwave pattern will remain relatively unchanged with a 597dm H5 high center near central OK and an H5 low opening up across the northern Great Basin. This pattern will allow the monsoon moisture axis to remain draped from S/SW to N/NE across the northwest half of NM. The coverage of showers and storms will remain focused along and west of the central mt chain with slightly better chances for storms to develop over northeast NM. There is still uncertainty with how far east the greater storm coverage will actually occur given a possible westward extension of the H5 ridge axis into more of southeast NM. This may allow temps to remain very hot over eastern NM with another day of Heat Advisories for Chaves County Saturday. It will also be noticeably more breezy across the eastern plains with a slightly deeper lee side trough taking shape over northeast NM. Meanwhile, the Four Corners region may see a few strong storms given the closer proximity to stronger bulk shear values. SPC is highlighting a Marginal Risk for severe storms over northwest NM Saturday. PWATs will be hovering between 1 and 1.2" over central and western NM so locally heavy rainfall will continue. Flash flooding will be most probable in areas with recent heavy rain, burn scars, and urban drainages thru Sunday. By Monday, the H5 trough axis over the Great Basin drifts east into the central and southern Rockies as an ill-defined pressure height field. The H5 ridge to the east of NM then attempts to drift west and redevelop over eastern NM Tuesday and Wednesday. Return flow begins to deepen over TX and into eastern NM with PWATs increasing closer to 1.2" over more of the region. Overall this pattern leads to very weak steering flow with high moisture content and potential for very heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding over several consecutive days. Extended forecast models begin diverging on the evolution of the longwave pattern by Wednesday so confidence drops off quickly. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Overall, VFR should prevail over the next 24 hours. Forecast challenge remains timing of thunderstorms and associated gusty outflow winds at the terminals. Mainly retained timing of previous TAF set. One adjustment was to push timing of thunderstorm initiation an hour or two later for KFMN and KGUP. Confidence has also increased, per recent HRRR runs and HREF guidance, of outflow winds reaching KABQ/KAEG and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms, so TEMPO groups were introduced there. A few weak showers may develop on the eastern plains until a surface trough moves through this afternoon, but with very hot temperatures and dry low levels, unlikely to see wetting rain with these at KROW/KTCC. Density altitude concerns continue at those terminals as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Locally elevated fire weather conditions are occurring over portions of eastern NM this afternoon, as very hot conditions and modest lee- side troughing are leading to southerly wind gusts of 20-25 mph and relative humidity values falling to the 12-15% range. One new grass/shrub fire start has been noted in far northern Union County, along the Colorado border. Similar locally elevated conditions are likely to occur on Friday in eastern NM. Overall, though, critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days. Chances for wetting storms trend upward across western and central NM beginning today through early next week as the monsoonal moisture plume progresses eastward across the state. Cooler and wetter weather looks to move in early next week ahead of a easterly wave approaching from the Texas Big Bend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 345 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 As of this writing, Roswell Industrial Air Center has already reached 105F, breaking its previous record of 102F for this date. This also marks the 12th consecutive day of temperatures of 100 degrees or greater at Roswell, which is is the longest such streak on record for the month of August. It is likely to extend at least two more days (through Saturday). Clovis Municipal Airport has reached 104F this afternoon, shattering the previous record for this date of 98F. Tomorrow`s forecast high of 102F would also break that day`s record of 96F by 6F. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 87 63 86 / 60 50 60 50 Dulce........................... 50 84 50 80 / 50 60 60 70 Cuba............................ 55 84 56 82 / 60 60 50 70 Gallup.......................... 54 85 54 83 / 60 50 40 60 El Morro........................ 54 82 54 80 / 60 70 50 90 Grants.......................... 55 86 55 84 / 50 70 50 90 Quemado......................... 54 84 54 82 / 50 70 50 80 Magdalena....................... 61 85 60 85 / 40 60 30 60 Datil........................... 55 82 54 81 / 40 70 30 80 Reserve......................... 54 89 55 87 / 40 60 40 70 Glenwood........................ 64 92 63 91 / 40 60 40 60 Chama........................... 48 76 48 74 / 40 50 50 70 Los Alamos...................... 60 84 60 84 / 40 50 30 60 Pecos........................... 59 84 57 84 / 30 40 20 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 81 52 80 / 30 30 10 50 Red River....................... 48 71 48 71 / 20 30 10 50 Angel Fire...................... 45 76 45 75 / 20 30 5 50 Taos............................ 54 84 52 84 / 20 30 10 40 Mora............................ 53 82 52 81 / 20 40 10 50 Espanola........................ 60 92 60 91 / 30 40 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 61 86 61 85 / 30 40 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 89 59 88 / 30 40 30 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 92 66 92 / 30 40 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 94 65 93 / 40 40 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 95 63 94 / 40 40 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 94 65 93 / 40 40 40 30 Belen........................... 63 94 61 94 / 30 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 65 95 63 94 / 40 40 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 63 94 60 94 / 30 30 30 30 Corrales........................ 66 95 65 94 / 40 40 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 65 94 63 94 / 30 30 30 20 Placitas........................ 64 92 63 91 / 40 40 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 67 94 65 93 / 40 40 40 30 Socorro......................... 67 97 65 96 / 30 40 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 85 57 85 / 30 40 30 40 Tijeras......................... 61 88 60 89 / 30 40 30 50 Edgewood........................ 56 89 55 89 / 20 40 20 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 90 53 89 / 20 40 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 57 85 56 84 / 20 30 10 30 Mountainair..................... 58 89 57 88 / 20 40 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 58 89 57 88 / 20 30 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 65 93 65 91 / 10 20 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 61 84 60 83 / 10 20 10 40 Capulin......................... 55 87 58 87 / 20 10 0 10 Raton........................... 56 89 56 90 / 20 10 0 20 Springer........................ 57 92 56 92 / 10 10 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 57 87 55 86 / 20 30 10 30 Clayton......................... 65 95 67 95 / 10 5 0 0 Roy............................. 61 91 60 91 / 10 10 5 10 Conchas......................... 65 98 65 98 / 10 10 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 93 62 94 / 10 20 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 67 99 66 99 / 10 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 71 102 70 100 / 5 0 5 5 Portales........................ 70 102 70 101 / 5 0 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 66 100 66 99 / 10 5 10 5 Roswell......................... 72 104 73 103 / 10 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 65 97 63 95 / 10 10 5 10 Elk............................. 62 94 62 92 / 10 10 5 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234>238. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
845 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms on Friday, with a low chance of severe weather (<20%). Main impacts will be gusty winds 40-50 mph from the strongest storms. Flash floods are not expected but the wrong storm right on top of one of the newer burn scars is not out of the question. - Gradual drying trend expected this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 GOES-16 IR and area radars showing strong thunderstorms across the northeast corner of Colorado. They are putting on quite the lightning display. The strongest storms might almost reach severe limits, but so far it`s looking like a low chance (<20%). The SVR watch continues until 11 PM. We have been watching closely the rainfall totals, as these storms are not moving as quickly as we`d like. A total of 1.5, worst case 2.5 inches of rain could occur under the strongest and slowest moving storms. The potential for flooding is non-zero, but seems to be low for now. The updated grids represent the latest trends in the observational data for Washington, Logan, Phillips, and Sedgwick Counties. The convective activity should move out of the area around midnight. Elsewhere, convective activity has reduced significantly and is at most a few isolated sprinkles, mainly across the Palmer Divide and the northern mountains. Additional rainfall accumulation away from the northeast corner of Colorado is not expected the rest of the evening. Stability has increased such that the only lighting will also be confined to the northeast corner. Forecast PoPs and temperatures the rest of the evening reflect the latest trends in the observations and CAMs. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... Issued at 342 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Short wave trough embedded in the southwest flow aloft is producing showers and thunderstorms across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Clearing has occurred ahead of the trough over eastern Colorado. RAP model shows MLCAPE reaching 800 J/kg where it has cleared. Cumulus clouds have been quick to form once it clears, so we seem on track for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms where it clears for a few hours. There is also a boundary over eastern Colorado, roughly from Holyoke to Limon. East of this line it is warmer and MLCAPE is up to 2000 J/kg. The best chance for severe storms will be along and east of this line. The showers and storms progress eastward and come to an end around or a little after midnight. For Friday, the upper level ridge shifts a little northward and seems to cap convection over southeast Colorado. Best chance for storms will be north of this (north of I-70). Appears to be enough moisture (precipitable water values 120-150% of normal) and instability (MLCAPE up to 800 J/kg) for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Heavy rain and gusty outflow winds will be the main threats. The best instability will again be over far eastern Colorado where a few severe thunderstorms will be possible. && .LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/... Issued at 342 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 We`re seeing similar trends in the models to what we`ve seen over the last few days. The trough passing north of us this weekend continues to get slower and with less effect on Colorado. The drying trend today is about a day slower than what we saw yesterday. It`s there, but it`s really slow. So we should see a very gradual decrease in both thunderstorm coverage and intensity, but we`ll have at least scattered storms over the mountains and isolated late day storms on the plains through the weekend. The upper and lower level forcing from the trough is also getting separated. It still looks like there will be a shift to northwest winds late Saturday, while the upper level wind shift and QG lift is now late Sunday or early Monday. So we still expect a bit more southwest wind both days, with Sunday more likely to be breezier and drier. But the impact is looking less than before, as humidities are more likely to stay above 15% and winds below 20 or 25 mph. If the trough passage is overnight, we`d probably have a round of showers or storms at that time. The same trends hold for next week. A weaker trough leads to less of a dry intrusion and further north. The really dry air may never get to our mountains. So we`ll have lower PoPs, but the odds of a dry day are getting slim. Temperatures also won`t change much, a few degrees of cooling with the front/trough, but then a little warming again. It`s probably all within a couple degrees of 90 for Denver. Models diverge with the next trough, but the stronger solutions are mostly north of us. There`s still reasonable agreement on some kind of front about Thursday with the air behind it somewhere between the upper 70s and upper 80s. It`s looking more likely that the cooling will not be that much. The models with a strong Canadian system bring in drier air from the west, while the weaker ones leave room for the flow to get more southerly and we stay on the edge of the moisture and possibly even getting an increase again. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/... Issued at 542 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The 00Z TAFs are some of the most challenging I`ve had to write in a long time. The reason is that significant winds and TSRA were ongoing at 2330Z at APA, and expected at DEN around 00Z, the start time of the TAF. That explains 40 kts prevailing at 00Z in DEN TAF...planning on the gust from from the south blowing through right around 00Z. APA gusted over 40 kts as well out of the SSW, which is why there are high prevailing winds in that TAF. Overall the winds at APA should weaken by 0015Z, and at DEN by 0045Z. Rain and borderline MVFR conditions should be over by 01Z at all three TAF sites. BJC, I didn`t forget about you, gusty southwest winds with stratiform rain should be the norm until about 0030Z. Once these showers move east, the chance for a round two looks very slim, and we have handled that with VCSH for now. By 04 or 05Z all activity should be east of the terminals and normal drainage wind patterns will kick in. It will be VFR all night long. On Friday, variable winds late morning will give way to west- southwest winds and another chance of TSRA after 21Z at DEN, 20Z at BJC and APA. Gusty winds, probably out of the west or southwest will be likely with any nearby convection. The storms should be east of the terminals by 00Z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 342 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Airmass is moist with precipitable water values 140-160 percent of normal. Expect the storms to produce heavy rain. Storms should be moving along, so expect the flooding threat to be limited. If a storm moves over a flood prone area, or happens to train over the same area, flash flooding will be possible. Best chance for this redevelopment of storms will be over the Palmer Divide east- northeast across southern Washington and northern Lincoln Counties. For Friday, airmass dries a little with precipitable water values of 120-150 percent of normal. The storm coverage also decreases, leading to a lower threat. However a strong storm in the wrong spot can still produce flooding. There will be a gradual decrease in moisture through the weekend. There will still be some thunderstorms and a low risk of burn area flooding, but moisture will be limited and storm motions will be faster. There should be little or no risk for the early part of next week. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Schlatter SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...Schlatter HYDROLOGY...Meier/Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
514 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on a daily basis through Sunday, some with locally heavy rainfall. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as well. - A drying trend will arrive by Monday with the potential for increased risks of Fire Weather concerns through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Monsoon moisture is currently streaming over the area as visible on GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Precipitable water is well above average for this time of year, and the abundant mid-level moisture is producing a stubborn cloud layer that has held in place the majority of the day. This has led to a cap still in place over much of the High Plains at this time. However, the higher clouds are starting to break down, which should allow for some destabilization as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours. Right now, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is confined to Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties. This area of precipitation will continue to move to the northeast and expand into the rest of southeast Wyoming. For the most part, this should be sub-severe, but can`t rule out some locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. There remains a somewhat conditional threat for severe storms this evening in the southern Nebraska panhandle. Atop the cap, there is more potent instability present here. Convection initiating in Colorado will have a better potential to become strong to severe if the cap weakens enough to allow storms to move north into Nebraska. A subtle shortwave moving northeast in the monsoonal flow will arrive late tonight, which may keep shower and some isolated thunderstorm activity going until after midnight. The other concern today is the smoke that settled into the High Plains from the House Draw Fire in northeastern WY. This smoke was very shallow, so as we get some modest mixing today, air quality is improving. Conditions are expected to continue to improve tonight, and with southerly winds tomorrow, air quality concerns should come to an end. Abundant moisture will remain in place over our area tomorrow as southwest flow continues aloft. A strong closed low moving into the West Coast will also start to approach the area, increasing the speed of the southwest winds. This will lead to breezy conditions over our western counties. Cloud cover should be patchier than today, which should allow for a more widespread destabilization, although lapse rates look a little bit weaker. The lifting mechanism is a little messy, with broad and weak isentropic lift, and a few subtle vort-maxes moving through the flow aloft. A surface wind shift boundary/pressure trough is expected to be up against the Laramie Range, which may provide a local axis for initiation, although scattered shower activity will likely already be present in the southwest flow. As the days before, the main concern will be torrential rainfall with the nearly saturated soundings, but cannot rule out strong gusty winds and isolated large hail. Saturday will be a similar story as mid to upper level moisture remains abundant ahead of the strong trough slowly moving eastward. This should reduce capping concerns again, although the lower levels look a little drier. Another round of scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms looks to be on track for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The large scale trough over the northwest CONUS will continue with moist southwesterly flow across the CWA late this weekend on the western edge of the central CONUS high. However, deamplification of the wave will continue as it phases in with the subtropical jet on the eastern side of the trough leading to quasi-zonal flow through midweek. Model solutions begin to diverge for late next week with a possible cold frontal passage. Upper level lift under the right entrance region of a 115 kt 250mb jet will support scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Saturday with highs in the mid-70s to 80s for most. PWs just under 1" will be around the climatological 90th percentile value, but forecast soundings indicate little instability present. Therefore, not looking too much in the ways of severe weather potential with Sunday`s precipitation chances. Kept PoPs around 10-25% for Monday as the upper level low continues to propagate out of the region, but will also be deamplifying so there could be a quick drop off in precipitation with less favorable dynamics. Overall, looking at a drier pattern headed into midweek with temperatures gradual rising through Wednesday, but only climbing to slightly above normal for late August. Uncertainty increases for Thursday with a potential cold frontal passage. EC members are slightly more amplified with the upper level low passing east along the Canadian border. Latest NBM IQR for Thursday MaxTs in Cheyenne range from 68F and 81F degrees. Will continue to monitor model trends with this system next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 509 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Concerns with the 00Z TAFs deal with thunderstorms this evening and low stratus overnight. Very conditional on thunderstorms developing in the Panhandle this evening. Still seeing a low level cap in place that may prohibit storms from developing. If cap breaks...then storms will develop in the Panhandle and east of the Laramie Range. Counting on some development this evening...mostly in the Panhandle as storms develop in northeast Colorado and move north. Second issue is low stratus. Latest HRRR guidances showing airports of concern being KCYS...KBFF and KAIA. Best locations look to be KCYS and KBFF late this evening into Friday morning. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...MB AVIATION...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are likely this evening through the overnight hours favoring the northwest and northern zones, some of which may be severe. - Widespread triple digit temperatures expected on Saturday, with the southeast zones likely needing a Heat Advisory in the near future. - Cooling trend Sunday into mid-next week accompanied by precipitation chances returning that favor the northwest and northern zones. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveals a ~597-dm mid-level ridge remains fixed in place over the central and southern plains, with a pair of troughs on either side. At the surface, broad high pressure is spread out across nearly all areas east of the Rockies, leading to southeasterly winds over southwest KS. Following the morning cloud cover, temperatures have warmed into the 80s to low 90s as of 19Z, and are expected to peak in the upper 80s northeast to upper 90s/near 100 southwest by mid-afternoon. Later this evening, short range guidance agrees a weak mid-level vorticity max will eject out of the central Rockies onto the High Plains. This feature will likely support thunderstorm development over eastern CO, and this activity will translate eastward into our northwest through northern zones as HREF probability of QPF > 0.01" is in the 50-70% range from 7pm CDT through the overnight hours. While mid-level flow will be weak given proximity to the ridge, the ejecting impulse may provide just enough forcing for some degree of storm organization, resulting in a severe threat with damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters the primary hazards. Friday and Saturday, short range guidance suggests the mid- level ridge will begin to be shunted on the northwest side as a strong trough pushes its way east over the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, this slight pattern change will not pay dividends to southwest KS yet, and the hot and mostly dry conditions will persist Friday with afternoon highs in the low 90s northeast to upper 90s/near 100 southwest. Saturday continues to appear to be the warmest day of the forecast period as 850-mb temperatures warm into the low 30s C. This will translate to afternoon highs in the 100-105 range for most, with the Red Hills potentially hitting 107-108. A Heat Advisory will almost certainly be needed at some point for Barber, Pratt, and Comanche counties at least. Sunday into early next week, medium range ensembles agree the mid-level trough will proceed with its eastward propagation, gradually weakening the mid-level ridge`s grip on the central plains. As a result, a slow cooling trend is expected as afternoon highs decrease from the upper 90s/low 100s Sunday to the upper 80s/mid 90s by Wednesday. In addition to the cooling trend, precipitation chances will return to our area, favoring the northwest to northern zones, as LREF probability of QPF > 0.01" is in the 20-30% range Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday evenings. While any precipitation will likely be minimal, any relief is welcome. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Good flying weather will continue through the balance of this TAF period, with VFR expected. Thunderstorms are expected to be in the vicinity of NW KS around 03z Fri, then subsequently move eastward to be in the vicinity of HYS during the 06-12z Fri time range. Enough support in the models to include VCTS/CB mention in the HYS TAF for this time frame. All other airports will remain dry. Southeast winds gusting near 25 kts currently will diminish in the 03-06z time range, but southeast winds will remain elevated at 10-15 kts all night. Winds on Friday are expected to be weaker than those observed Thursday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
537 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each day with highest chances for storms Friday and Monday. Temperatures will start much above normal but will gradually decrease to closer to normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The subtropical high is a Red Raiders fan today as it is roughly centered over Lubbock. With this eastward shift, the monsoonal plume shifted east with it, drawing it through much of NM, AZ, and points northward. As a result, storm chances are back in the picture this afternoon and again tomorrow. A few ripples will rotate around the high, which will help enhance coverage a bit if the HRRR is to be believed. Looking at WV imagery, this solution seems reasonable given our placement with regard to the high. Storm chances will be highest west of the Rio Grande, especially within the Gila Region. As we head into the weekend, the high will remain centered over W. TX and OK, but will expand / strengthen to the southwest with its ridge axis pointed our way. This will lower storm chances some, but not really eliminate them. The highest chances / coverage for storms will remain west of the Rio Grande. The forecast begins to muddy as we start a new work week. The uncertainty has to do with an inverted trough, weak closed low expected to migrate our way from the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS shows a weaker higher pressure system and stronger, broader low, enhancing precip chances especially across the Western half of the CWA. The Euro is similar in locations but is weaker with the low and stronger with the high and thus, less excited about storm chances. On Tuesday, the differences in features and their respective strengths do not really matter as both models show us within the subsidence of the aforementioned wave. Beginning Wednesday, model differences become too divergent to forecast with confidence. The GFS and Euro look very different. The forecast will depend on the handling of a trough across the northern US or souther Canada in the Day 6-8 period. In any case, thunderstorm chances will continue into next week, but where and how much remains to be seen. Temperatures for the period will remain much above normal this afternoon and for tomorrow with tomorrow the peak. We`ll see a gradual decrease in temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Generally VFR conditions through the period, but the potential for TSRA and outflow gust fronts with BLDU could create areas of MVFR SFC conditions, due primarily to low VSBY in RA shafts and BLDU. CIGs few and far between below 180-200, and only in vcty of storms, where tempo cigs near 110 will be possible. Storms will move up from the south and track to the north. Each terminal does have a chance through 06Z for MVFR, but overall conditions should be VFR. Expecting storms to diminish around 06Z, with slight chance of some lingering beyond 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Monsoonal moisture plume has shifted back east with an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage, especially west of the Rio Grande. Precip chances will decrease some this weekend but look to increase again on Monday before another increase on Tuesday. Above to much above normal temperatures will help foster min RH values that range 15 to 25 percent in the lowlands. Temperatures peak for Friday but gradually decrease this weekend and into next week. This decrease in temperatures will lead to improvements in min RH values. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, will top out around 10 MPH each afternoon. Venting will generally range good to excellent through tomorrow, decreasing good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 103 77 101 / 20 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 69 95 69 93 / 10 0 10 20 Las Cruces 72 100 70 99 / 30 10 20 10 Alamogordo 70 99 70 98 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 55 74 55 73 / 10 20 10 40 Truth or Consequences 70 96 69 95 / 20 30 20 20 Silver City 64 89 62 88 / 40 60 40 50 Deming 70 98 68 97 / 40 30 30 20 Lordsburg 69 94 66 94 / 40 60 50 40 West El Paso Metro 77 100 76 99 / 20 10 20 10 Dell City 71 101 70 99 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 72 102 72 100 / 10 0 10 10 Loma Linda 70 94 70 92 / 20 10 10 10 Fabens 73 101 72 99 / 20 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 99 71 97 / 30 10 20 10 White Sands HQ 75 100 73 98 / 20 10 20 10 Jornada Range 70 98 69 98 / 20 10 20 10 Hatch 70 100 68 99 / 30 20 30 20 Columbus 72 98 70 96 / 40 20 20 10 Orogrande 70 98 70 97 / 20 10 10 10 Mayhill 59 87 58 86 / 10 20 10 40 Mescalero 59 86 57 85 / 10 20 10 40 Timberon 56 85 55 84 / 10 10 10 30 Winston 58 87 56 86 / 20 60 30 50 Hillsboro 65 95 64 94 / 30 40 30 30 Spaceport 67 97 65 97 / 20 30 20 20 Lake Roberts 58 87 57 86 / 40 70 40 60 Hurley 64 92 63 91 / 40 50 30 40 Cliff 62 97 62 97 / 40 60 40 60 Mule Creek 64 89 63 88 / 40 60 40 50 Faywood 67 92 65 91 / 40 40 40 40 Animas 68 96 67 95 / 40 60 50 50 Hachita 67 96 65 95 / 40 50 40 30 Antelope Wells 67 95 65 94 / 40 50 30 30 Cloverdale 65 89 64 88 / 30 60 40 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Hot temperatures continue across the FA with all counties having reached at least 100 degrees as of 1 PM. Temps will continue to increase through the afternoon before slowly cooling into the upper 60s to upper 70s overnight. The HRRR has begun to show some relief in the form of very isolate and very light showers this afternoon. Satellite does show a CU field developing along the Texas/New Mexico state line and across the northern Permian Basin, but there is little to no vertical growth. This is expected given the amount of overhead subsidence. At best these clouds will provide some temporary shade to a lucky few. The overhead high will continue its slow crawl eastward tomorrow. This should at least lower thicknesses by a decameter, but this will have little effect over temperatures as 100+ highs are expected area wide tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 12Z model suite is showing good continuity with each other and from run to run with a trend toward more seasonal temperatures and a return of thunderstorm chances to at least parts of the area for much of next week. The center of the upper high that has been overhead will shift to the northeast of the forecast area by Saturday morning. Although the southwestern extension of the upper ridge will remain over the forecast area through the weekend, decreasing heights and thicknesses point to moderating temperatures. Further moderation will occur next work week as ridging gives way to a westward-moving easterly wave that remains progged to be over South Texas by Tuesday morning at which point it stalls before potentially getting picked up by an upper level shortwave trough moving across the CONUS/Canadian border. Near-normal temperatures are looking more likely in the middle of next week while monsoonal moisture rotating eastward will bring at least slight thunderstorm chances back to the area for much of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Breezy southerly winds will slightly diminish before again increasing late Friday morning and turning more southwesterly. VFR will continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Elevated fire weather danger will be possible once again tomorrow afternoon for most of the region. Hot temperatures over 100 degrees will help to drop afternoon RH values to near 15 percent. While 20 foot winds are expected to be near to be between 10-15 mph, ERC values will be near to well above the 70th percentile across most of the region. ERC values continue to be the highest across the Rolling Plains, averaging from the 85th-95th percentile. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ023-024-029-030- 035-036-041-042. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ023-024-029- 030-035-036-041-042. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ025- 026-031-032-037-038-043-044. Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ025- 026-031-032-037-038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible through early Friday morning. - Heat and humidity build this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 An area of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is placed over eastern to south-central MN early this afternoon. This activity has been decaying the last few hours and will continue to push east into WI through this afternoon. The main hazards to look out for with any thunderstorms in the short-term will be cloud-to-ground lightning and periods of heavier downpours. Rain should end by this evening with lows falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s overnight. However, a 20-30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected for east-central MN into northwest WI Friday morning as a weak mid- level trough pushes through. After this chance of precip, the remainder of Friday and the weekend look dry as upper-level ridging builds into the Northern Plains. Southerly flow will cause temperatures and dewpoints to rise. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 80s Saturday and mid 80s to lower 90s Sunday. Meanwhile, dewpoints should exceed the lower 70s for most of the area by Sunday afternoon. These conditions combined with mostly sunny skies will make for a great, but muggy weekend to take advantage of outdoor activities or a certain large "get-together". The warmth looks to last into Monday before our next chance of rain arrives Monday afternoon into Monday night. An upper-level trough riding the backside of the aforementioned ridging feature will have the opportunity to kick off showers and thunderstorms over the north- central CONUS. Both the GFS and ECMWF show CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and appreciable wind shear for organized storms across the area Monday evening. As such, SPC has outlined most of the MPX CWA in a 15% severe risk with the main hazards being damaging winds and hail. After Monday, temperatures should hover near normal through the middle of next week. Significant precipitation chances don`t look abundant but ensembles do hint at a few trough passages towards the end of next week. However, large spread exists between the deterministic model suites making forecast confidence in such precipitation low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Main uncertainty through Friday morning is whether or not we`ll see any additional shra/tsra activity. There is a band of congested cloud cover with a few bumps from northeast SD through north-central MN. This is within a zone of WAA in a weak LLJ. This LLJ will slowly slide east through Friday morning, but will be weakening the entire time. We will likely see a few showers/storms develop within this zone of weak lift, but when/where that may happen is quite uncertain. As a result, we pared back prob30s for precip quite a bit with this update. This LLJ will also bring BKN-OVC skies with it, though we expect cigs to be between 4k & 7k feet. By Friday afternoon, the shra threat is expected to be over. KMSP...Based on the RAP and several of the CAMs, we will likely make an attempt at developing shra or even some TSRA between 10 & 15z Fri, but it is highly uncertain if that will actually amount to precip or nothing more than some accas. However, left the PROb30 in to cover that threat for now. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA. Wind SSW 5-10 kts bcmg NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
858 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 108 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 A dynamic upper level system will bring cooler temperatures today through Saturday. A slight chance of light rain continues across the North and East Bay Friday night into Saturday, though the forecast trend is drier. Temperatures will quickly rebound Sunday through Tuesday as the system exits north and east, and high pressure builds to our west over the open Pacific. && .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Forecast remains on track for cooler temperatures tomorrow and Saturday with best chances of light rain across the North Bay and East Bay tomorrow night into Saturday. No thunderstorms are expected as the cold front pushes through. Inland temperatures will begin to warm on Sunday, and back to above normal for the beginning of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 102 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The mid-to-upper level low has dropped southward and is currently off of the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature will continue to move southward and move inland over Oregon and northern California tonight into tomorrow. As such, cooler temperatures are expected today given the cooling air mass aloft and will warm into the upper 50`s to near 70 degrees for coastal locations while temperatures reach into the mid 70`s to lower 80`s across the interior. Tonight, widespread clouds are likely given the deepening marine layer and will spread into many valley locations. Coastal drizzle is not out of the question either overnight. For tomorrow, temperatures will struggle to eclipse 80 degrees even in our typically warmer spots across the interior. Overall, temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be 10-15 degrees (closer to 5- 10 near the coast) below seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Rain chances Friday night into Saturday continue to diminish with QPF amounts also doing the same across the North Bay and San Francisco Bay Area. The likelihood is between 10-30% for the North Bay to see >0.05" and only in isolated areas. Thus, not expecting much in the way of rainfall and mostly will be less than a tenth of an inch for areas north of the Golden Gate. From previous forecaster: H50 height and thickness increases quickly behind the exiting system on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will jump 5-10 degrees from Saturday, right around or slightly below seasonal averages. The building ridge to our west over the open Pacific will lift temperatures another 5-10 degrees inland on Monday with our normally warmer inland areas climbing back up around or slightly above the century mark. The inland heat peaks Tuesday as another potent closed low moves inland over western Canada, flattening the ridge over our area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 VFR becoming MVFR overnight. Chances for light precipitation/drizzle increase mid to late tomorrow morning and continue through the end of the TAF period. Light drizzle is most likely to impact STS and APC but recent HRRR guidance does show chances for light drizzle increasing across the South Bay and Central Coast after 00Z tomorrow. Confidence is low to moderate in development of MVFR CIGs as high level clouds moving in ahead of the cold front may potentially limit low level stratus development. Any CIGs that do develop will transition from MVFR back to VFR by mid to late tomorrow morning with high level clouds then expected to persist into the afternoon. Moderate gusty winds persist through the day/afternoon with lighter, more variable winds expected overnight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with some potential for MVFR CIGs overnight. Ensemble guidance supports some potential for temporary MVFR CIGs overnight but confidence remains too low to currently include in TAF. Chances for MVFR CIG development generally increases between 09- 17Z so will continue to monitor and amened the TAF as required if CIGs become more likely. Light drizzle is possible mid tomorrow morning with elevated chances continuing into the afternoon/evening. Gusty west winds persist during the day with gusts up to 27 knots possible through this evening. Winds reduce overnight before moderate, gusty winds return during the day tomorrow. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR becoming MVFR overnight. Moderate confidence that CIGs will remain MVFR but some potential for IFR CIGs to develop. Moderate northwest winds continue during the day/evening before weakening overnight. Low level stratus will dissipate by mid morning with VFR conditions and moderate northwest winds returning. HRRR guidance indicates light drizzle becomes more likely just after the end of this TAF period (around 00Z tomorrow). && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 511 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Northwest breezes generally persist into the early weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface cold front move inland. Around the time of frontal passage, wind direction temporarily becomes more west to southwesterly and rain chances increase over the coastal waters early Friday into Saturday. By mid to late Saturday, winds ease and become light to moderate and dry weather returns. Significant wave heights and winds look to build by mid to late next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
848 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .UPDATE...Showers and weak thunderstorms were persistent along the Cascades this evening. The CG lightning was not overly frequent but due to the training cells the total lightning added up mainly in OR fire zone 610. The CAMS are showing a continuation of showers overnight in the same general area...with the bulk of the activity the next several hours shifting westward. On Friday a shortwave trough will rotate NEWD across the region producing showers and a few thunderstorms. Its a tricky forecast because it is not clear in the CAMS where the thunderstorms will be most concentrated...with the overall trend in the 00Z runs leaning toward less activity. With that in mind will not issue any fire weather watches for abundant lightning on this shift. The best potential (40% chance) for abundant lightning Friday afternoon appears to be over the northern Blues but the storms there also have the potential to produce rains in excess of .25 inches. There continues to be a threat (60% chance) of some sort of outflow with winds of 40-55 mph to move across the Columbia Basin Friday afternoon. Convection associated with this feature should be weak given the lack of substantial CAPE but blowing dust will be a concern. Blowing dust is already mentioned in the current forecast. 78 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ Updated for Aviation... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low churning off the coast of northern OR, in which it will continue further south through this evening. Over the forecast area, cumulus fields are already developing over the eastern mountains and portions of the Cascade east slopes, while a few cells have attempted to develop along the central OR Cascades. Through tonight, most of the forecast area will remain dry while the Cascade east slopes and adjacent valleys will see increasing chances of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms develop through this evening. Support wise, CAMs are indicating MUCAPE values between 250-500J/kg across the Cascade crest through the evening. Otherwise, the upper low has placed the region under a south to southwest flow aloft, which has also resulted in a warmer/drier airmass advecting into eastern and portions of northeastern OR. Breezy to locally breezy southerly winds have also begun to develop across the eastern mountains and Wallowas, and are expected to continue through tonight. Tomorrow, the upper low swing inland while a strong shortwave will swing around the bottom and eastern half the low, pushing shower chances east of the Cascades. Rain showers are expected to develop across most of eastern OR/WA throughout the day Friday, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms forecast across much of the forecast area. One thing to note about the convective activity tomorrow is that most CAMs are indicating a robust outflow boundary developing near the Horse Heaven Hills then propagating north through the afternoon. The HRRR is the most impressive of the bunch, as it is advertising a wind gust front of 55mph developing just north of the Tri-Cities then pushing north into the upper Columbia Basin. This gust front will be capable of producing not only brief strong winds, but also blowing dust which may reduce visibilities to a mile or lower if it materializes. While no highlights have been issued, this situation will be closely monitored tomorrow. Friday night into Saturday, the upper low is anticipated to split into two low circulations, with the stronger of the two continuing north into western Canada and the other swinging southeast into northern NV. This will result in diminishing shower chances across the lower elevations and partly the eastern mountains/OR Cascades, while the WA Cascades under an upslope northwest flow aloft will continue to see the best shower chances through the afternoon. That said, the nest convective potential will be over the eastern mountains as the axis of the now developing trough tracks over the region, resulting in a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms across the eastern mountains. By tomorrow, temperatures will have dropped to well below normal, with forecast afternoon high temperatures in the 60s to mid 70s across the lower elevations. These temperatures will continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to track over the region. Lawhorn/82 LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Overall models agree that an upper level trough will be exiting to the east Sunday but the ECMWF does so at a slower pace. Either way looking at a flat ridge of high pressure moving onshore and the trough shifting east leaving a few lingering showers along the Idaho border Sunday. The shortwave ridge will last through Monday providing warmer conditions before the next upper level trough pushes into Canada. Models show some timing issues with the trough passage with the ECMWF continuing to have the slower pace. The main impact of the trough passage will be ushering in slight cooler conditions along with breezy conditions on Tuesday while keeping precipitation pretty much north of the forecast area. Wednesday will be the coolest day as the trough exits to the east placing the forecast area under a dry cool northwest flow. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build in from the eastern Pacific late Wednesday and Thursday providing a return of warmer temperatures. AVIATION...00Z TAFs... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Gusty winds to around 25 kts were occurring at DLS. Winds are expected to remain gusty at DLS through the period. Gusty winds to around 20 kts were occurring at RDM and BDN. These winds should subside during the early evening before picking up again Friday. All other sites will be 10 kts or less through the night, but with the exception of YKM will gust in the 20 to 25 kt range on Friday as a system moves across the region. This system will also bring at least some rain chances, with DLS, BDN and RDM seeing SHRA in the morning and the further east sites later in the afternoon. Still some question on probabilities, but may end up adding SHRA to the other sites in subsequent issuances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 54 69 43 68 / 0 70 30 20 ALW 58 74 49 72 / 0 70 50 20 PSC 61 75 55 74 / 0 50 40 20 YKM 57 73 48 72 / 20 60 60 40 HRI 60 73 49 73 / 0 60 30 10 ELN 58 71 50 69 / 20 60 60 50 RDM 49 61 38 66 / 40 70 40 20 LGD 50 74 43 69 / 0 80 40 40 GCD 50 69 42 69 / 0 70 30 40 DLS 60 69 53 72 / 30 70 30 40 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...78 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...77