Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/15/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
839 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .DISCUSSION...Latest HRRR model predicts near-surface smoke to decrease tonight and Thursday except near the fires northeast of Boise, and showers should help further as a Pacific upper low moves inland across Oregon. The low is forecast to turn northeastward into eastern WA Thursday, then weaken to an open trough in northern Idaho Thursday night, but still produce showers throughout eastern OR and north of the Snake Basin in ID. Showers and scattered weak thunderstorms will dominate in the morning, but scattered stronger thunderstorms will dominate in the afternoon. Clearing Thursday night, then drying and warming Friday and Saturday. Current forecast covers things well. No updates. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR, but due to wildfire smoke there will be areas of IFR and mountain obscuration. Showers and thunderstorms across eastern OR after 06Z tonight, spreading across SW Idaho by 12z/Thu. These will bring brief MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-10kt, becoming NW 10-20kt early Thu morning, strongest between KBKE and KONO. Gusty erratic outflow winds from showers and thunderstorms up to 40kt possible. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20kt. KBOI...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms 14Z-18Z Thursday morning may bring brief MVFR conditions. Surface winds: becoming SE around 5 kt overnight, then NW 5-10 kt Thursday after 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Wildfire smoke from the Shelly and Boise fire in northern CA visible on the Geocolor continues to stream northeast into the area this afternoon. A shortwave off the California coast will move inland late tonight and trigger two rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms begin across eastern OR on Thursday morning as the shortwave moves northeast into central ID. After a brief lull, showers and thunderstorms redevelop on Thursday afternoon with the heating of the day, especially across eastern OR and the central ID mountains. Main threats from the storms will be brief heavy rain, gusty winds up to 50 mph, and new fire starts from lightning. After the system moves through, drier air from the southwest arrives, leading to a warming trend through Saturday. LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...An upper level trough will remain off the coast through the long term. Southwest flow over the area, and a dry slot, will lead to breezy and warm conditions over southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest day with temperatures around 5-10 degrees above normal, lowering to around 5 degrees above normal for the remainder of the period. Monsoon moisture should stay east of Twin Falls through the period. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday IDZ402-403. OR...Red Flag Warning from midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight to 10 PM MDT /9 PM PDT/ Thursday ORZ636-637. Red Flag Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday ORZ646. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....SP SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1032 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues this afternoon e. Another round of scattered showers thunderstorms is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Dry weather returns Friday and may linger into Saturday, especially across RI and eastern MA. Then a frontal system may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Probably not a washout, with periods of dry weather too during this time. Meanwhile, Ernesto will track well southeast of New England, but it will bring rough surf and strong rip currents to south-facing ocean beaches of RI and MA this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Expecting convection moving south from Maine to remain well offshore overnight. Relatively quiet weather continues tonight. Mainly adjusted rainfall chances through the overnight, as well as temperatures. Also expecting a brief period of fog across the outer Cape and Nantucket, as well as the adjacent coastal waters. 8 PM Update... Diurnal showers across western MA and CT have died off as daytime heating has decreased with sunset. Based on the 18z HRRR vertically-integrated smoke and observations from today, there`s higher confidence in haze primarily across eastern MA affecting visibilities. Previous discussion is on track. Previous discussion... Clear skies this afternoon with some diurnal cumulus. The exception at the moment is for far western MA and CT where terrain is helping to kick off some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Even though low level lapse rates are favorable, poor mid level lapse rates and dry mid/upper levels are keeping these storms low topped and sub severe. Garden variety t-storms will continue over the interior until loss of daytime heating with sunset. Tonight we`ll see some radiational cooling but incoming clouds after midnight associated with a subtle shortwave aloft will help to stem the cooling; expecting lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The main weather story for Thursday is the return of more widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening as the upper trough lingers overhead with a shortwave rotating through. Skies will be mostly clear so plenty of sun for surface heating (highs in the low to mid 80) and with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s this will lead to MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg; plenty of instability and moisture for some thunderstorms. Fortunately shear is quite weak (20 kts or less) and mid level lapse rates aren`t impressive so we`re not expecting anything severe out of these storms. That said, with PWATs over 1 inch localized heavy downpours are possible along with some gusty winds. Storms dissipate with sunset but onshore flow may bring low clouds into eastern MA, RI, and even CT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key points: * Drier pattern coming to an end after Friday night with surface high pressure moving out of SNE * Upper level trough moving in over the weekend into early next week aiding in return of unsettled weather into mid-week * Surface high pressure looking to return going into Wednesday Details: The drier weather we`ve been seeing for most of this week looks to come to a close going into Friday night as the surface high pressure begins to make its exit. In its place, an upper level trough and its associated cold front looks to push through SNE over the weekend, bringing with it more SW flow aloft, higher dew points, and generally unsettled weather. PWATs during this period do not look to be higher than seasonably average (staying within about the 1.45- 1.68" range at their highest), and nothing in the guidance overall is indicating any high chances for heavy downpours. Highs for most of this period look to be in the 80s for most of our area, with Sunday being slightly cooler than the other days following the passage of the aforementioned cold front. This moisture looks to start moving out of SNE around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a surface front passes through. Most of the deterministic guidance suggests the return of the surface high pressure by mid-week, with the ensembles being a bit more neutral when looking at MSLP anomalies. Generally, there is decent support from the guidance for more comfortable dew points and less rain coming in mid-week. As of right now, there is high confidence in Hurricane Ernesto staying far offshore for New England, but there could be some slight risks for rip currents and higher surf over the weekend along the southern coastlines. Will continue to monitor for the possibility for issuing headlines for the outer waters. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight and Thursday...High Confidence. VFR. Winds light and variable. Seabreezes developing by Thursday afternoon along both coasts. Risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR conditions. Smoke aloft may lead to visibility reductions and pseudo-overcast conditions around 4000 ft. Thursday night...High Confidence. VFR. Winds light and variable. KBOS TAF...High Confidence KBDL TAF...High Confidence. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Sunday through Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday night...High Confidence. Relatively light winds and seas through Thursday night. Visibility should be quite good as well. Risk for a few showers around Cape Ann this afternoon and evening, with a greater risk for nearshores showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW/Hrencecin/KS NEAR TERM...Belk/BW/Hrencecin SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...Hrencecin/KS AVIATION...Belk/BW/Hrencecin/KS MARINE...BW/Hrencecin/KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
553 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Storms will have the potential to produce brief, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. - Seasonable temperatures will continue through the period. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with dry conditions for Saturday. - Fire weather concerns begin to increase Friday as well as Saturday with warmer temperatures and low afternoon humidity. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Isolated showers are beginning to pop up on radar early this afternoon. A few isolated lightning strikes are accompanying the weak thundershowers further west of our cwa. Wind gusts of 40-50mph have been observed with some of the weak rain showers further west near the UT/WY/CO state borders. With the modeled upper air soundings depicting an Inverted-V signature in the lower boundary layer, and skinny CAPE further aloft, this afternoon and evening is favored to see strong wind gusts with the rain showers and thunderstorms. In fact, the HRRR is the most aggressive with the deterministic output of wind gusts between 45-75mph along the I-80 corridor of southeast WY between 21Z and 1Z this afternoon/eve. With the modeled soundings depicting 30-40 knots from the surface to 500mb, the high-based rain shower and thunderstorm activity may not have those highest wind gusts realized in actuality. However, it is a possibility as DCAPE readings over 1000 J/kg are also modeled, which is a good rule of thumb for the higher potential of stronger wind gusts. The rain showers and thunderstorm activity should wind down by 6Z for most areas. Thursday will be another mild to warm day. Scattered cloud cover over the region will keeps temperatures slightly reduced near seasonal averages. Model soundings show another afternoon and early evening timeline of inverted-V signatures, so would expect there to be elevated to potentially strong wind gusts when rain showers and isolated thunderstorms occur. Similar timelines of the mid-afternoon to early evening looks good for the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PWATs will be slightly lower, so the potential for brief downpours is limited. An upper level ridge will amplify from the Four Corners region overnight Thursday into Friday. This will bring the next round of warmer temperatures to the area. A weak shortwave disturbance will be embedded within the H5 upper level flow on Friday. A slight chance of rain showers during the afternoon is progged, but the concerns for fire weather will begin to creep upwards. Daytime minimum humidity readings will range from 10-15% along and west of the Laramie Range. Breezy winds will also be present during the afternoon in this same area, so a possible fire headline may be prudent in the coming forecast updates. Overall a warm forecast remains on track, and the chances of rain showers reduce slightly in the short term period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 213 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Friday night/Saturday...West flow aloft will continue to dry out the airmass and thus we will see correspondingly warmer temperatures from the mid 80s to mid 90s. With precipitable water values lowering to 0.4 to 1 inch and warm temperatures aloft increasing the convective inhibition. it looks dry. Sunday...Despite ridging aloft developing, we will see an increase in atmospheric moisture content with precipitable water values increasing to 0.6 to 1.4 inches. Thus, we expect an increase in widely scattered to scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, most numerous from the Snowy Range to far southeast Wyoming. Monday/Tuesday...Atmospheric moisture content remains about the same as on Sunday, and thus we expect another round of scattered late day showers and thunderstorms each day, most numerous near the Colorado state line from the Snowy Range to far southeast Wyoming. With similar 700 mb temperatures, maximum temperatures should be about the same as those from Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 553 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska this evening. Wind gusts up to 50 kts could be possible in these storms. Moderate to heavy rain could also briefly reduce visibility down to 2SM at times. Storms will likely clear out by 06Z, leading to a quieter overnight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...SF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for the area this afternoon and evening. Hail and gusty winds will be the main concerns with any storms that develop, although an isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. - Warmer temperatures are expected Thursday, with widespread 80s and 90s expected. - A ridge sets up over the area late this week and through the extended forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 After some morning fog and overcast conditions this morning, much of central Nebraska remains under cloud cover this afternoon. As a result, high temps were lowered slightly. Portions of north central Kansas have experienced some clearing today and have been able to warm into the 80s and 90s. A few isolated showers are moving across areas north of Interstate 80 and also through north central Kansas. Low pressure continues to slide across Kansas today, with a warm front located over southeastern Nebraska and a cold front located from around Kearney, Nebraska to Norton, Kansas. Areas within the warm sector and to the north of the front will be the main focus for any strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Visible satellite imagery shows an area of cu development in southeastern and south central Nebraska, with some low-level clouds moving overhead in south central Nebraska. Thunderstorm chances increase (20-40%) later this afternoon into this evening, particularly for areas along and east of Highway 281. The main concerns with any severe storms that develop will be the potential for hail up to the size of quarters and winds gusting to around 60 MPH. With the location of the front, decent shear, and modest moisture in the region, can`t rule out the chance for an isolated tornado, particularly for the easternmost portions of the Hastings CWA, along the front, although the current thinking is that better chances for this will be further east, in Topeka and Omaha`s area. Thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish after midnight. Zonal flow sets up over the region Thursday, with much of the day expected to be dry. Expected highs will be in the mid-80s for much of south central Nebraska. Areas along and south of the Kansas- Nebraska state line will be in the low 90s. Lows will range from the upper 50s to mid-60s. Friday, there will be a 20-30% chance for a few showers and thunderstorms across portions of the CWA. This will be as a shortwave advanced through the region. At this time, models are favoring the western and southern portions of the area. Confidence is fairly low in just how widespread thunderstorm coverage will be. An upper ridge will move over the center of the nation over the weekend, remaining in place through the extended forecast. A few models are trying to bring in some chances for precipitation and a series of shortwaves. Not fully confident that this will transpire, but did at least make mention of it with some low PoPs in the extended part of the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Thunderstorms are expected to remain well east of our TAF sites tonight. We could see some shower and thunderstorm redevelopment Thursday morning mainly north of the Tri-Cities. These would be non-severe and have introduced just a slight (20%) chance for thunderstorms based mainly on recent HRRR and 18Z NAM NEST model runs just north of the Tri-Cities. The wind will remain light and variable most of tonight, gradually becoming more west northwesterly as we near dawn. Clear skies are expected this evening with scattered lower level VFR clouds eventually returning mainly after dawn on Thursday. Northwesterly winds are expected throughout the day on Thursday, generally around 10 kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1059 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers and storms dissipate this evening. Another round of showers and storms is expected Thursday before some improvement Friday. By this weekend, periods of more unsettled weather are possible through the weekend into early next week. Hurricane Ernesto passes offshore late this weekend and Monday, bringing an increasing swell and dangerous rip currents by Saturday through midweek next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1050 PM Update...A discontinuous N-S corridor of thunderstorms continues from near Jackman ME southward all the way to the coast east of Portland. This thanks to a weak convergence zone and steep mid level lapse rates. This will continue for the next 1 to 2 hours before waning. In the meant time, small hail, gusty winds, and very heavy downpours will be possible. 7 PM Update...One strong/severe storm in southwestern Somerset County ME continues to move southward and is currently weakening. The rest of the region is dry. However, we cannot rule out a few more storms this evening with another short wave trough moving southward in the cyclonic flow regime aloft. Previously... Isolated showers and storms have developed this afternoon. At time of publishing, these are mostly over central and southern Maine. The cu field has been slow to show much deeper growth through the afternoon, perhaps stunted by earlier smokey cast deterring some solar insolation through the first half of the day. There should remain instability off the surface however as upper low stalls over Nova Scotia/New Brunswick. Embedded shortwave will be forcing that taps into this instability into the evening and early overnight to keep showers and some thunder possible. With the low shear and dry low levels, will continue to have some of these storms produce gusty winds through the early evening. This shouldn`t be a widespread impact unless a cluster of storms forms a uniform outflow, but the deeper/stronger storms will be capable of these winds. A few pockets of showers may continue up to midnight, but a general clearing trend is forecast. This will again bring in fog chances for the CT River Valley late. HREF vis and ceiling guidance has also hinted at a low deck of clouds advancing along the coast and interior from the east overnight. Probabilities aren`t the highest, but patchy fog could form over damp areas as the night cools. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A similar setup possible for Thursday where a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms exists. Shear parameters are again marginal compared to available instability. Theoretically gusty winds and small hail would again be possible in stronger cells. Will continue to assess how this trends, and how this afternoon plays out to increase confidence. HRRR Smoke/RAP models do portray additional high level smoke passing through the region, and this may further impede afternoon convection. Surface temps may be a couple degrees cooler as more morning cloud cover is possible and the upper low retrogrades west. While highs topped out around 80 today, highs may only make it into the mid to upper 70s for ME and the northern half of NH Thursday. A similar evening trend is anticipated as daytime heating wanes and clearing begins. At this time, overnight showers look less likely compared to Wed night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overview... A series of troughs affect New England this weekend and into early next week. Generally cool and showery conditions are expected, with some brighter periods in between. Hurricane Ernesto passes offshore late this weekend and early next week, bringing building surf and increasing rip currents. Details... A weak shortwave ridge passes through New England, bringing a relatively drier and brighter day on Friday. Scattered showers are still likely during the afternoon hours across the higher terrain, but don`t look to be as widespread as on Thursday. By Saturday, the ridge passes and a trough begins to deepen through the Great Lakes, with low pressure developing across the Great Lakes as well. The low is very slow to make any eastward progress over the following few days as the ridge stalls and builds across Atlantic Canada through the weekend. With this pattern, showers and scattered thunderstorms likely begin to move into western areas late in the day Saturday, and make slow progress eastward overnight Saturday. The progress mostly stalls by Sunday, with western areas seeing a greater chance for showers than eastern areas. There remains some question as to just how far east it will progress, but at this point the coast stands the best chance to see the driest conditions. By Monday, a shortwave dives in and deepens the trough, while also causing it to become more amplified and help the pattern begin moving along again. With this, the greatest chance for rain and showers in the forecast arrive late Monday as the low progresses east. The trough continues to transit through on Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday, keeping the chance for scattered showers around. While all this is going on, Hurricane Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday, and making it`s closest pass to Nova Scotia on Monday. Ernesto helps to amplify the ridge across Atlantic Canada, aiding in the slow down of the trough progression, while also bringing it`s own effects. Building surf and increasing rip currents remain the biggest concerns from Ernesto, with a southeasterly swell building by Saturday. The swell builds through Monday, and then will be slow to subside through Wednesday. Rip currents become increasingly more dangerous by Sunday, and continue through at least Tuesday. High astronomical tides are also occuring early next week, so some splashover is also possible. The track is favorable overall for a long duration swell event, with the storm tracking mostly northward for two days around Bermuda. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...patchy fog to reduce vis tonight, especially in the wake of thunderstorms. This lifts Thursday, with another round of SHRA/TS in the afternoon. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected on Friday, with brief showers possible across interior terminals. VFR conditions prevail more often than not Saturday through early next week, but periods of MVFR ceilings and showers are likely at times through early next week, especially across interior terminals during the afternoon and evening. Nighttime valley fog is also likely at LEB and HIE each night. && .MARINE... Short Term...Below SCA conditions expected. Stacked upper low over New Brunswick and Nova Scotia will slowly retrograde west over the next few days. This should give little wind at the surface outside of daytime sea breeze that turn onshore in the afternoon. Some marine fog is possible tonight. Long Term...Weak pressure patterns prevail as broad high pressure builds across Atlantic Canada into this weekend. Hurricane Ernesto passes east of the Gulf of Maine late this weekend and early next week, bringing an increasing southeasterly swell starting on Saturday. The swell builds to greater than 5ft by Sunday, and continues through midweek next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Cornwell LONG TERM...Clair AVIATION... MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1029 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build down from the north bringing drier weather with relatively cooler nights through Friday. A rain-free end of the work week will transition to warmer, more humid weather over the weekend with increasing rain chances ahead of an approaching cold front. && .UPDATE... Radar continues to show weak showers moving in from the northwest and dissipating over the area. The 01 UTC run of the HRRR indicates the showers activity will cease by 04 UTC. Therefore will continue a 20% chance of showers for Southeast North Carolina. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will build in from the north/northeast through tonight and early Thursday. The axis will become more diffuse in time beginning Thursday afternoon. No pops through the period and any shallow convective clouds that have developed today will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Lows tonight will generally be in the middle 60s perhaps cooler in a few isolated spots with highs Thursday similar today`s values perhaps a degree or two warmer. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure over the East Coast will shift off the coast Friday, maintaining dry weather for the end of the work week. Another unseasonably cool night Thursday night with lows in the mid 60s (low 60s in traditional cool spots). Highs in the upper 80s Friday with sunny skies. Low temps in the upper 60s Friday night. Hurricane Ernesto will be passing over 700 miles east of the Carolinas on Friday, near Bermuda. Swells from Ernesto will create rough surf conditions beginning early Friday and continuing into the weekend. See Tides/Coastal Flooding section below for more details. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With high pressure offshore, will see a rise in dewpoints and PWATs heading into the weekend. Dewpoints in the 70s return Saturday, increasing to mid 70s Sunday. With high temps seasonable near 90F both days, it will be humid (but not enough for any heat products). A longwave upper trough builds across the Eastern US late Saturday, lingering through next Tuesday. PVA associated with initial approach will lead to scattered storms late Saturday into Saturday night. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday, before stalling nearby into early next week as the upper trough lingers. Have chance pops forecasted each afternoon/evening Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions with light winds inland and an afternoon seabreeze at the coastal TAFS. The only fly in the ointment is diminish showers near KILM which should dissipate by issuance time. Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR is expected outside of early morning fog/low clouds as dry high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week. As the high moves offshore this weekend, returning moisture will lead to isolated pop-up showers and storms more typical of summer. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...NE winds will continue through Thursday as high pressure builds in. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots overnight and weaken slightly Thursday to more like 10 knots. Significant seas will be 2- 4 feet. Thursday Night through Sunday...Long period swells from Hurricane Ernesto will be arriving at local coastal waters Thursday night, peaking Friday evening from the SE at 5-7 ft at 14 seconds. Ernesto swells linger through the upcoming weekend, becoming easterly late Saturday, around 3-5 ft at 12 seconds. High pressure over the East Coast will shift offshore on Friday with light ENE winds late week shifting to southerly Saturday afternoon. 10-15 kts SSW winds late Saturday through Sunday will generate a 2-3 ft 5 second wind wave to mix with the long period swell. A cold front approaches the waters late Sunday before stalling nearby, with a chance for storms over the waters Saturday night and late Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Swells from Ernesto will arrive Thursday night into Friday and continue into this weekend. Dangerous surf and strong rip currents will develop Friday and persist through the weekend, especially for east and southeast facing beaches. A High Surf Advisory may be needed for the beaches of New Hanover and Pender counties Friday afternoon and night for breaking waves of 6+ feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RH MARINE...SHK/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
843 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Two periods of thunderstorms are expected Thursday, one early in the morning and the other in the mid to late evening. Of these, the latter storms have the highest chances for severe weather, with damaging winds the greatest concern. - Locally heavy rain will accompany the showers and storms, though probabilities of a widespread 1+" of rain are fairly low. - After Friday, an extended period of quiet weather is expected through the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 This evening, low pressure is located over SD/NE with a broad corridor of warm air advection inching east across portions of the mid Mississippi Valley. A few showers and storms are noted near the Mississippi River, but 00Z KILX sounding showed dry conditions up to around 600mb with very weak and capped instability. As such, this convection forming in the WAA to our west should struggle as it moves into central Illinois late this evening. Meanwhile, a more organized line of storms currently over KS/NE will spread east overnight on a veering LLJ. This will advect weak instability into portions of the lower Illinois River Valley late tonight into Thursday morning supporting a decaying line of showers and storms into the local area. Deubelbeiss && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Latest radar mosaics show scattered thunderstorms across central Missouri into southeast Iowa, in the wake of the earlier MCS which continues to sink southeast and weaken. Latest HRRR has latched onto this activity and sneaks it into west central Illinois by 5-6 pm, before weakening. However, orientation of the instability axis would suggest a southeast motion as well. Will keep some 20% PoP`s going through late afternoon from about Peoria-Springfield westward. Main focus remains with a couple periods of thunderstorm activity late tonight into Thursday night. Morning high-res models continue to suggest linear convective initiation across Nebraska and Kansas very late in the afternoon, with upscale growth into an MCS during the evening. While the main line still looks to arrive in our forecast area after 3 am, a few showers may develop ahead of it on the fringe of the upper jet spreading toward the Mississippi River. By midday, what`s left of the line should be close to the I-70 corridor. Severe potential during this period appears low. Main period of concern for severe weather still appears to be in the evening. A low level jet will help with renewed storm development to our west early in the evening. Some variety noted on the CAM`s with the extent of this development, though most are pointing toward a period from about 9 pm Thursday to around 2 am Friday with the highest potential. Damaging winds appear to be the main focus, though some hail can`t be ruled out if the storms remain more discrete as they enter the area. In terms of the heavy rain potential, there remains some fluctuation with the heavier QPF axis, though precipitable water values peak toward sunrise Thursday. HREF probabilities of 6-hour rainfall amounts over 1 inch of rain peak around 30% west of Springfield with the early morning activity, and near Peoria (40-50% chance) with the evening storms. Temperature-wise, assuming clouds break up enough by afternoon, highs should be a few degrees warmer than today, mainly in the mid 80s. However, with a substantial increase in dew points (mid 70s), heat index values in the low-mid 90s are expected west of Peoria and Springfield. Geelhart .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The longer range pattern will be dominated by an amplifying upper ridge along the east slopes of the Rockies, which will persist into the middle of next week. An upper low will slide across the Great Lakes through the weekend, as a longer wave upper trough develops. These two features will keep a northwest flow across Illinois, with temperatures running a few degrees below normal and no significant surges of low level moisture to add to the humidity. Some wraparound showers can`t be ruled out on Friday and Saturday in the cyclonic flow around the low, though better chances appear closer to the Great Lakes and thus our forecast will be kept dry for now. After that, surface high pressure will dominate the Midwest with continued dry conditions. Geelhart && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Thunderstorms are expected to develop and expand in coverage over MO/IA late this evening and eventually move across central Illinois late tonight into Thursday morning, likely in a weakening phase. MVFR or IFR ceilings may accompany the precip and linger for a few hours Thursday morning. SE winds tonight into Thursday morning will turn southerly Thursday afternoon and will gust to around 20kt as conditions return to VFR. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
645 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .AVIATION...15/00Z TAFS...Along the coast and just offshore. VFR conditions will continue into this evening, then ceilings will lower tonight, bordering on IFR late tonight. However, odds are they will remain MVFR due to increasing instability. Inland, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The exception will be in the vicinity of the complex of fires in central and eastern Douglas County and western Siskiyou County as smoke from the Boise Fire gets transported there. An approaching upper trough will result in increasing instability. Satellite image is already showing signs of convective clouds and possible storm development over the waters off the California coast, which could be a precursor of things to come later this evening and tonight. Several high res models show the best chance for thunderstorms will be east of the Cascades with thunderstorms could pop up between 2-4z and lasting into the overnight hours. Thunderstorms have since developed south of Klamath Falls and have moved over the airfield. Storms are expected to last for another 2-3 hours bringing gusty and erratic winds. The main hazard with thunderstorms will be gusty outflow erratic winds near storms, but they can also occur well outside of the core of the storms. && .DISCUSSION...Cumulus clouds are starting to build generally in southern Jackson county...south central Siskiyou county...and much of Klamath and Lake counties...where thunderstorms are forecast. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the westward extension of thunderstorms...especially for the rogue valley...where smoke may keep us from getting to the convective temperature. Either way...the short term models have been very consistent in thunderstorms initiating generally along a line from Yreka into Klamath Falls between 3 and 5 pm. Showers and thunderstorms will move northeast...impacting the northern half of Klamath and Lake counties around 10 pm. The activity will move out of the area around 5 am Thursday before a very short break in the action. The second round of thunderstorms is expected develop in Klamath and Lake counties early Thursday afternoon. The best chance for thunderstorms (25% to 35% chance) will be mid Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours over northern Lake county. Please see below for more information regarding fire weather concerns. Otherwise...our focus shifts to this weekend as an upper low drops south along the PacNW coast Friday into Saturday. There is a lot of uncertainty with the position of the low and how it impacts the precipitation forecast over the weekend. For instance, about a third of the clusters indicate precipitation across much of the area Saturday with the upper low a bit more to the east...compared to two thirds to the clusters indicating the low position more to the west...leading to a lesser chance of precipitation. About a third of ensemble members show absolutely no precipitation for Medford...where some show upwards of a half inch of rain. Additionally...depending on the position of the low...there will be the possibility of thunderstorms. Again...still a lot of uncertainty with the weekend storm...but we will continue to monitor closely and hone in on details over the next few days. -Riley && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued 245 PM Wednesday August 14, 2024...Upper level troughing will remain the dominant weather pattern through the forecast period. This will continue the trend of cooler than normal temperatures, moderated humidities and breezy afternoon winds. The two main fire weather concerns on the horizon are thunderstorm potential today through Thursday and the development of a deep upper low offshore over the weekend which could bring some strong winds to the area. First the thunderstorm potential...a shortwave trough will be moving into the region today and linger over the area through Thursday. With ample moisture and modest instability, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. Initially, isolated thunderstorms are expected over portions of northern California, then spreading north- northeastward into Oregon after sunset and into the overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorm coverage is the most likely scenario today mainly along and east of the Cascades (possibly as far west as the Rogue Valley/Medford), but scattered coverage is possible as storms move into Oregon across Fire Weather Zones (FWZ) 624/625. There will be a break in thunderstorm activity early Thursday morning. The trough will linger over the region Thursday afternoon, however, and this will provide a better opportunity for scattered thunderstorms over FWZ 624/625 due to daytime heating effects. Due to these factors, a Red Flag Warning for abundant lightning on dry fuels will be in effect starting this evening, and details can be found at RFWMFR. Storms are expected to have some precipitation with them, but lightning strikes outside of precipitation cores are possible and cause for concern. Additionally, expect gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms with strong outflows that can travel a good distance from the originating storm. There has been a concern for the smoke moving to areas east of the Cascades in the coming days with westerly flow. The HRRR smoke model is matching well with the current satellite picture. With this in mind, the westerly winds are on track to move the smoke to areas east of the Cascades with the highest concentrations in Klamath County. The smoke may be heavy enough to hinder thunderstorm development, but convective temperatures are in a reasonable range to reach, even if smoke does stay in the area of the Red Flag Warning. The atmosphere will stabilize some on Friday. There will be lingering moisture and instability, but without a sufficient trigger/forcing mechanism, it`s likely there will be some cumulus buildups east of the Cascades and over the higher terrain. The next concern turns to a deep, large scale trough that develops off the PacNW Coast late Friday into Saturday and lingers there well into next week. This will bring some precipitation chances to the region, though confidence is low on the details regarding where and amounts. Ensembles suggest the best chances are along and west of the Cascades, but there could be thunderstorms to accompany these precipitation chances. The other element of concern with this low pressure (and where the higher confidence lies) is the potential for strong south to southwest winds. Guidance suggests gusts of 30-40 mph for areas east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. These strong winds could combine with low humidities (which ultimately depends on where precipitation chances occur) and result in critical fire weather conditions. Stay tuned for updates as subtle shifts in the position of this low could have big changes on the forecast. /BR-y/Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM Wednesday, August 14, 2024...Relatively calm conditions are expected for the next several days with light to moderate winds and seas remaining 6 foot or less. There will be a slight uptick in winds Thursday into Friday south west of Gold Beach, but they will remain below advisory levels. A rather strong upper low for this time of the year will move into the waters Saturday and will likely bring showers over the waters. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ624-625. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
603 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible this evening (10-20% chance). Large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and localized heavy rain leading to flooding will be possible. - There will be another chance for severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening (5-15%) with primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail. - Temperatures stay seasonably warm through early next week with additional chances for nighttime storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 This afternoon - tonight: Skies are clearing across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon, preparing our area for the potential for severe storms this evening. A shortwave trough will bring a dry line boundary through triggering storms sometime between 5 and 8 PM, with some CAMs showing earlier convection in Kansas expanding north and developing storms near Gage County around 5 to 6 PM, and the HRRR holding off on convection until closer to 8 PM. In either case, the environment is looking very unstable this afternoon with 3000-4000 J/kg of SB CAPE and strong low-level shear. Some models have as much as 400+ m2/s2 of 0-3km shear. Looking closer to the ground, 0-1km shear will be 200+ m2/s2. This is looking like a much better set-up for severe weather than 24 hours ago, with potential for 2+ inch hail and damaging winds of 75 mph. Tornadoes will also be possible due to the high amount of low-level shear, and LCLs below 1000 m. The area of greatest potential for severe weather is generally east of Highway 77 in Nebraska through southwest Iowa. We`re expecting storms to develop initially into supercells, merging into a line around or just west of the Missouri River. Once the line develops, the tornado threat will lessen, but not completely go away, and transition into more of a damaging wind and heavy rain threat. The severe weather threat should be out of our area by midnight at the latest. Thursday: We have another severe weather threat on Thursday as another shortwave moves through during the afternoon/evening. This looks less menacing as we won`t be quite as unstable, with SB CAPE only around 1800-2500 J/kg, and significantly less low-level shear. There will still be sufficient shear and instability for a severe potential, however, with the greatest threats being large hail up to half-dollar-size and damaging winds of 60 mph. These storms appear to initiate north of I-80 and track into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the evening. They will likely be out of our area by 10 PM. Friday-Tuesday: Over the weekend we see the summertime ridge build back up over the Rocky Mountain region, with temperatures trending upward across our area. Dry weather is expected on Friday through the day on Saturday, but we`ll have to watch Saturday night into Sunday as the UL-Jet moves across our area for the potential for the development of an overnight MCS. Several models develop one, but vary in location of the system from as far north as the Dakotas to right over our area. With more of the models staying dry over our area, right now precipitation potential is low around 15-20%. Early next week we see the ridge expand eastward leading to seasonably warm daytime temperatures and additional chances for nighttime storm potential. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions of eastern NE as of 6 PM (23z) and that activity will become increasingly widespread over the next 2-4 hours with KLNK and KOMA the most likely locations to be impacted. MVFR to potentially IFR conditions are possible in the heaviest downpours with locally strong wind gusts as well. The storms are expected to shift east of the area by 05-06z with winds switching to west and then northwest. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ052-053-067. IA...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Thursday for IAZ079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Mead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
210 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a departing H5 trough situated along the Continental Divide which will continue to lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development through this evening ahead of dry conditions returning back overnight tonight. With a similar convective environment to yesterday with 600-1200 J/kg of SBCAPE and 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear, the bigger difference will be the drier PWATs in place behind yesterdays cold front. PWATs will generally be about 50-70% of what they were yesterday in that 0.50-0.80" range but conditions will still remain favorable for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development, just not to the degree we saw yesterday. Stronger storms today will be capable of producing wind gusts to 40-50 mph, small hail, and heavy rain. Highs today will be in the low 70s to low 80s with overnight lows tonight in the 30s/40s/50s. Outside of convection, wind gusts will remain less than 30 mph regionwide. Starting tonight, our next H5 low will move inland from the Pacific over Oregon before turning NE into NRN Idaho throughout the day into Thursday night. This will support our next round of scattered showers and thunderstorms which will build in west to east throughout the daytime hours. Even with more marginal instability of only around 300-600 J/kg of SBCAPE and 0-6 km of 25-35 kts, the strong to severe threat will continue to exist with stronger storms again being capable of producing wind gusts to 40-50 mph, small hail, and heavy rain. As this H5 low shifts NE into Canada Thursday night into Friday, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible overnight before departing north, leading dry conditions to start the day on Friday. Highs on Thursday will be slightly warmer than today courtesy of SW flow tomorrow with highs reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s. MacKay .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday. Friday looks to be a dry day across the region as we begin to feel the influence of weak high pressure building over the area. Eastern Idaho will stuck between a persistent ridge across the east of the Four Corners and a slow moving upper level trough over the Pacific NW. Not expecting any significant systems to move through the region during the extended portion of the forecast but it does appear that we`ll slowly be able to sneak in some monsoon moisture by Saturday afternoon as our southwesterly flow becomes enhanced. Most locations will likely remain dry but by Sunday, and into early next week, we`ll probably see 20-40 PoPs across the eastern half of the forecast every just about every day. Temperatures will remain generally stagnant with the lack of any real pattern change so expect daytime highs to run near average which is mid to upper 80s in the lower valleys. McKaughan && .AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday. VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms although we will have a period of mid/high clouds over the region for the next few hours. An upper trough moving north of the area is to blame and this feature is helping to produce some scattered showers and storms across the northern half of the forecast area. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible in the strongest of storms. Continue to maintain VCTS for now at KIDA, KSUN, KDIJ and KPIH but thus far, the thunderstorms that have developed are generally unimpressive. Expecting quick clearing later this evening as the trough departs to our east with mostly clear skies taking over for the first half of the day Thursday. Just beyond the 18Z forecast period, cloud cover and rain chances begin to increase ahead of the next trough. Winds will be light through the period aside from any potential thunderstorm outflows. McKaughan && .FIRE WEATHER... A H5 trough situated on the Montana border this afternoon will continue to lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of dry conditions returning for overnight tonight. Our next Pacific system will move onshore tonight and pass overhead on Thursday, supporting another round of scattered thunderstorms. As a result, a RED FLAG WARNING has been issued for FWZ 422, 475, and 476 to capture the highest coverage of thunderstorms but this may ultimately need to be expanded further dependent on coverage in further forecasts. Predominantly dry conditions will return for Friday outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Montana border region as Thursday`s system departs NE into Canada. As a secondary low begins to work south in the NE Pacific to being off the PacNW coast by this weekend, a favorable monsoon moisture axis will begin to push north leading to a return of isolated shower and thunderstorm chances primarily across ERN Idaho. Competing, dry SW flow from the Pacific will work against this trend so will have to see how much of this moisture is able to build in or is that SW jet keeps conditions drier. The overall trend outside of thunderstorms will be warming temperatures through the weekend as predominant SW flow returns aloft. MacKay && .AIR QUALITY... An Air Quality Advisory from Idaho DEQ remains in effect for Custer County until 1 PM MDT Thursday August 15th due to increased wildfire smoke concentrations leading to degraded air quality. The latest HRRR smoke model shows the bulk of wildfire smoke in the CNTRL Mountains originating from wildfires immediately to the west with much better air quality elsewhere. Following increased wildfire smoke in place through this evening in Custer County, a return to SW flow tonight into Thursday as our next system builds in will aid in pushing the smoke NE and out of Custer County with only light concentrations in place expected for Thursday. MacKay && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for IDZ422-475- 476. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
405 PM MST Wed Aug 14 2024 .Update...00Z Aviation Discussion && .SYNOPSIS... Quieter weather conditions will prevail during the latter half of the work week, with relatively stable daily high temperatures reaching up to around 110 degrees for the typically warmer lower desert communities through this weekend. High pressure will begin to shift back over the southern plains this weekend resulting in a slight increase in moisture and increased thunderstorm initiation chances mainly over Arizona high terrain into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Current WV imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis depicts a trough moving eastward over the Intermountain West, with another upstream approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. The persistent Pacific Northwest negative height anomalies coupled with a strong westerly jet streak over the Great Basin region has acted to displace/dampen the subtropical high pressure over the region. An anticylonic circulation is in place overhead, with very dry air and subsidence aloft. The 12Z KPSR sounding this morning depicted a strong inversion between ~600-500 mb associated with the subsidence aloft, and model soundings show this feature persisting to some extent through the next several days, becoming less prominent later in the day on Friday. Considering the strong cap and drier air in place, shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of the work week will be near zero, but Friday may bring some very isolated development over the typical prominent terrain features of Southwestern Maricopa County, Northeastern La Paz County, and Gila County. Late Friday, the upper level pattern shifts such that upstream troughing amplifies just off the West Coast and the subtropical high builds as it centers itself over the southern plains/eastern New Mexico. This shift in the pattern will allow south/southeast flow to reestablish over Southern AZ, drawing moisture back into the region for this weekend. Global ensembles are in excellent agreement with respect to the trends in moisture through this weekend, suggesting PWATs (and lower desert storm chances) will peak late Saturday, though the GEFS shows the driest ensemble mean compared to the ECMWF and CMC ensembles. Despite the increase in moisture this weekend, forecast near-surface mixing ratios (peaking around 10-11 g/kg) will only be marginally supportive of lower desert storms, and much of the daily thunderstorm activity will be confined to the Arizona high terrain and some of the typical mountains/terrain features of South-Central and Southwestern AZ. NBM PoPs peak around 10-20% for the AZ lower deserts on Saturday and Sunday and around 20-40% for the high terrain east/north of Phoenix and for Southeast AZ. Early next week, the upper level flow pattern does not seem to change significantly, though the trough off the west coast and subtropical high both seem to shift slightly westward, and ensemble mean H5 heights modestly increase over the eastern CWA to around 595-597 dam. With increased subsidence aloft, convection would be even more confined to the AZ high terrain early next week, and lower desert PoPs decrease to 10% or less starting Monday. Temperatures will be quite stable through the next 7 days, with daily highs reaching around 108-112 deg F each afternoon across the typically hotter lower desert locales. These temperatures will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk through at least the middle of next week, so sensitive groups will be at risk of heat-related illness during the heat of the day, and all should continue to practice proper heat safety measures. As current global guidance indicates heights aloft increasing over the eastern CWA next week, areas of Major HeatRisk develop over the San Carlos area as early as Monday, however, subtle differences in the locations and orientations of the previously discussed synoptic features could lead to considerable changes in moisture, magnitude of heights aloft, and the subsequent temperature forecast, so excessive heat products are not necessary at this time. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2305Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds will follow typical diurnal trends, with occasional gusts 15-20 kts during the afternoon and early evening hours. Other than a FEW clouds around 10k ft, skies will be mostly clear through tomorrow afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the next 24 hours. Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends, with some periods of variability during directional shifts, especially at BLH. Mostly clear skies will prevail during the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier conditions and slightly above normal temperatures will prevail through the end of the work week, with only isolated (10% or less) chances for showers and thunderstorms returning late Friday. Over the weekend, a modest increase in moisture will lead to better storm chances and coverage. Today and Thursday, with drier air in place, afternoon MinRHs will bottom out around 10% for the western districts and between 15-20% for the Arizona districts. By Friday, these values will increase across the region to between 15-25%. Overnight recoveries will be fair at between 25-50% and increase up to 60% for portions of southern Arizona over the weekend. Wind patterns should follow a more typical upslope/drainage pattern through the next several days without much chance of gusty outflows. However, local afternoon upslope gusts of 20-25 mph will be common. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Whittock AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Whittock