Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/11/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1013 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below-temperatures will continue into early next week with more seasonable temperatures for mid and late week. - Dry through Sunday and then periodic rain chances return on Sunday and continue through the week. Severe weather chances continue to look low for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Through Sunday... High pressure will provide dry weather and below-normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s. The coolest temperatures will be in central and north-central Wisconsin. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s. Sunday night into Monday... A low pressure system will move southeast from the Northern Plains into the Mid Mississippi River Valley. There will be enough moisture transport and instability for some showers west of the Mississippi River. Rainfall totals will be up to a quarter inch. The highest totals will be in northeast Iowa. Low temperatures on Sunday night will be in the lower and mid-50s. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s. The coolest temperatures will be west of the Mississippi River where the cloud cover will be thicker. Remainder of Next Week... The upper level ridge over the southern US will build north and west of the forecast area. As this occurs, temperatures will be return to seasonable norms. There will be periodic showers and storms as systems move along the periphery of the ridge of high pressure. The CSU severe weather composites continue to show that any severe weather chances will likely remain west and south of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Sunday, a mid- level trough over the Northern Rockies will drop southeast toward into the Plains with increasing high clouds during the afternoon. Smoke was noted on the satellite imagery to the west today. The HRRR does bring some vertically integrated smoke toward KRST Sunday night, but should not affect visibilities. Northwest winds diminish; light west at KRST and light south at KLSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
516 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cool temperatures will persist for much of the area Saturday. - Warming trend begins Sunday, with 80s/low 90s returning. Marginal severe thunderstorms threat exists for the far north zones Sunday evening. - Continuation of the warming trend is expected Monday through mid-week, with afternoon highs in the 95-100 range on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 KDDC radar observations at midday reveal a few light to moderate rain showers are spread out across southwest KS under widespread cloud cover, with only the farthest west zones near the KS/CO border beginning to see some clearing. Latest HREF suggests precipitation will continue to diminish through the remainder of the afternoon, but thick stratus will maintain cool temperatures for most with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s while the far west zones reach the low 80s. Saturday night, a few HREF members indicate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may redevelop within a zone of isentropic ascent as the nocturnal low-level jet intensifies. Weak instability and deep-layer shear will likely limit any severe potential, leaving heavy rain and frequent lightning the only threats. Daytime Sunday, all guidance agrees appreciable warming will occur as 850-mb temperatures warm by 6-10C, and with cloud cover eroding from southwest to northeast, afternoon temperatures will return to the mid 80s/lower 90s for much of the area, save for roughly the northeast third which will hold in the upper 70s/low 80s. Late Sunday afternoon into the evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central/northern plains ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough, and congeal into a forward- propagating MCS. The southern end of this complex may clip our northern zones, and with at least modest elevated instability and strong deep-layer shear in place, a severe wind gust threat is possible. Monday into the middle of next week, medium range ensembles agree modest westerly flow (by early August standards) across the central plains will be maintained on the northern periphery of a ~594-dm mid-level ridge over the southern plains/Dixie Alley. As a result, afternoon temperatures will continue to increase steadily from the mid 80s/low 90s on Monday to the mid 90s/near 100 on Wednesday. Thankfully, the westerly momentum will foster at least a slight chance of precipitation each day favoring the northern zones, as LREF probability of QPF > 0.1" is in the 20-40% range on Monday, and the 10-30% range Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday through the end of the period, medium range ensemble solutions of the synoptic pattern begin to diverge, with the GEFS depicting mid-level ridging building over the southern and central plains, while the ECMWF EPS hints at a more amplified flow pattern. If the former solution verifies, hot/dry conditions can be expected across the central plains. On the other hand, the ECMWF EPS suggests a cooler/wetter pattern. Therefore, trends will be monitored to identify which outcome is more realistic. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 513 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 High confidence exists (90%) with respect to low ceilings in the IFR/LIFR category overnight. Where the model data is highly inconsistent is with visibility, where the HRRR models develops widespread sm visibility after midnight from LBL to GCK and northwestward while the HREF means discounts this significantly, suggesting only a more isolated risk of the lowest 1/4sm visibility, unlikely (70-80%) to directly impact any sw KS terminals. Improvement to ceiling heights will be slow on Sunday, as a 50-80 percent chance of ceilings lingers through about noon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
327 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Near to slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday, follow by cooler weather. Persistent stratus with patches of night and morning fog and drizzle will continue for coastal areas through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Stratus cleared out for much of the coast early this afternoon with a weak inversion resulting in a period of sunshine with seasonal temperatures in the mid 60s. Inland temperatures has been running few degrees cooler compared to yesterday`s reading, especially for Trinity County. Onshore flow will push back inland the stratus early this evening. The marine layer is expected to slightly deepen tonight through Sunday. Patchy drizzle may occur again along the North Coast early Sunday morning. Smoke from the Boise Fire, south of Orleans, will continues to be pushed toward northeast with the southwesterly breezes aloft through this evening, bringing some improvement in the air quality for areas in and around Trinity and northeastern portion of Humboldt counties. Air quality is expected to deteriorate across most of the Trinity and interior Humboldt counties Sunday morning as the surface winds become north to northeast. HRRR model indicates smoke will spread into the northeast Sunday afternoon again with the southwest winds aloft. Ridge aloft will begin to shift south and east on Sunday as a 500mb trough develops over the Pacific NW and extends southwestward offshore over the NE Pacific. This positive tilted trough will remain in place through mid week. Near or slightly below normal temperatures are forecast for the interior. Ensemble clusters continue to show differences in the depth and evolution of the trough. NBM probabilities for 100F or more are 0 to 4% all next week. Major warming or 100 degree heat is highly improbable. Cooling trend may level off or reverse around mid week as a temporary ridge builds, but a second potentially colder trough will arrive late in the week. Significant precipitation is highly unlikely (90% chance of nothing), though not impossible (10% chance). Deterministic solutions have been all over the board and inconsistent on shorter wavelength features emanating from the larger scale trough. NBM probability for a tenth or more is less than 10%. Thus, dry and cooler weather is in store for next week. It may also get breezy and/or windy outside the usual wind-prone ridges after shortwave trough passage around mid week. ZVS&DB && .AVIATION...The marine layer remains around 2,000 feet deep this afternoon. Skies along much of the coast have cleared out, however some cloud are lingering north of Orick. These may clear out yet this afternoon. Tonight it appears the clouds will come back, although there is some offshore flow in Del Norte county so they may not come back immediately. Tonight these are expected to drop back down to IFR or LIFR. It seems like they may not be quite as a low as this morning. Sunday, skies are expected to push back towards the coast once again. Clearing is possible, although the HREF only has about a 30 percent chance of clearing at KACV. MKK && .MARINE...Northerly winds have diminished slightly this afternoon. Tonight these are expected to spread into the northern waters. The uncertainty mainly lies in how close these stronger winds a waves will get to the coast. In the southern waters it looks like they will come close enough to the coast to warrant a small craft advisory. The area just south of Cape Mendocino is the most likely to see 20 to 25 kt winds. Most of the models show these stronger winds covering the northern half of zone PZ455, while there is more uncertainty on the southern waters. So will go ahead and issue a small craft advisory for that area. Zone PZ450 looks like it will stay below small craft advisory criteria with only a small area of steep seas exceeding 6 feet near Pt St George Monday morning. Monday night and Tuesday winds and seas are expected to diminish, especially north of Cape Mendocino where winds are expected to drop to 5 or 10 kt. Farther south winds will be stronger, but still less than 20 kt. MKK && .FIRE WEATHER...Locally gusty west to northwest winds to 25 mph and low humidity in the single digits and teens will result in critical fire weather conditions through evening. Strongest winds are expected to occur over exposed ridges and through wind channeled terrain of zones 283, 276 and 264. Stronger northerly and northwest wind gusts will also occur over the exposed coastal ridges of zone 201, however humidity will generally be much higher. Temperatures will continue to trend cooler through early next week and humidity will trend slightly higher each day. West to northwest breezes are forecast to be gusty each afternoon and evening in zones 283, 276 and 264 through early next week. Otherwise, winds will be upslope and upvalley during the day and generally downslope and downvalley during the night and morning hours. N-NW breezes may ramp up more significantly around mid week. DB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1057 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will spur scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but will not be enough to stop hot and humid conditions from developing. High pressure will build in tomorrow and through much of next week while the front stalls over the Southeast. Daily thunderstorm chances and cooler temperatures will persist for much of the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As HRRR was insisting earlier this evening, have seen a redevelopment of convection across the Piedmont just off the escarpment. Have only made minor adjustments to pops and hourly trends as earlier update captured CAM trends fairly well with the front moving through, triggering convection along the instability gradient. Otherwise, the overnight period will be generally quiet with no great chance of dense fog development near daybreak outside the mtn valleys. Sun will be another weakly forced day with a good amt of instability generated by the afternoon. So, expect a similar setup for isol to sct tstms along the ern sfc bndry. Mins tonight will remain a few degrees abv normal while highs climb into the u80s to l90s east of the mtns and m80s across the mtns valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 149 PM EDT Saturday: A diffuse stationary front will remain draped across the eastern reaches of the forecast area through the short term, while WNW flow aloft brings spokes of vorticity across the region on the periphery of a robust 500mb trough over New England and Quebec. The upper jet will remain displaced a little to the north, but a few kinks in this flow will likely affect the Carolinas. In particular, on Monday night, a pronounced shortwave will push across the region, driving a reinforcing cold front out of the northwest and helping establish a deeper lobe of high pressure north of the stationary front into Tuesday. This`ll keep instability shunted off to the southeast both afternoons, limiting or even preventing appreciable sbCAPE from developing altogether across the northern and western portions of the CWA. For the southeastern 1/3 of the area, ensemble guidance depicts anywhere from 1200 to over 2000 J/kg developing each afternoon...more than enough to support some strong updrafts should convection get going. It`ll be difficult to get more widespread initiation with the lack of synoptic forcing, but the CAMs which go out that far depict at least widely scattered coverage south and east of I-85 Monday afternoon. With deep layer shear < 25kts both afternoons, any outside severe risk would likely be wind-driven courtesy of whatever DCAPE the environment can cobble together; any heavy rainfall risk would be limited to areas where multiple cells train over the same area. Temperatures both afternoon will be a little below normal...in the upper 80s...except for the Upper Savannah River Valley, which will land around or even a degree or two above normal both afternoons. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 208 PM EDT Saturday: The synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the bulk of the long range, with high pressure continuing to ridge down the Eastern Seaboard and NW flow aloft driving lobes of vort energy across the area. A shortwave is variously depicted arriving Wednesday or Wednesday night, either enhancing convective coverage and associated severe risk if it arrives earlier, or suppressing convection on Thursday if it arrives later. Timing remains in question based on the latest 12z LREF cycle. By the end of the week, any lingering frontal boundary over the Piedmont/Midlands should be diffuse enough to no longer exert an influence on the pattern, and the bulk of long-range ensemble members indicate that the entire forecast area will be able to destabilize on Wednesday and certainly on Thursday. Having said that, the synoptic pattern itself is fairly uncertain Friday onward, so guessing at details at this point is fruitless. High temperatures will remain up to a category below normal through the end of D7. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection has waned across most of the area with only isolated TSRA closer to the mountains, though hires guidance still wants to develop another round of convection over the next few hours that could impact the Piedmont TAFs. Have not included any mention of TSRA as confidence not high enough at this time but will monitor for development. May see brief fog at KAVL near daybreak and guidance is indicating some low VFR stratus creeping near KCLT as well, but no restrictions at this time. VFR on Sunday but introduced PROB30 in the out-periods at KCLT as most guidance is pointing to a round of convection late in the day. Except for some low-end gusts to start the period at KAVL, winds should remain generally weak and out of the N to NE overnight, but pick up 5-10kt during the day Sunday. Outlook: Expect generally isolated to scattered diurnal convection across the region each day through the middle of next week. Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible each night in the mountain valleys and in locations that receive rainfall. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...SBK/TDP SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...TDP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
813 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and breezy northwest winds gusting to 20-30 mph through this evening. - Dangerous swimming conditions expected for the Lake Superior beaches of Marquette and Alger counties into this evening. - Warm and dry weather is expected for the first half of next week. - Dangerous swimming conditions at the Lake Superior Alger County beaches continue through the early afternoon hours on Sunday. - Chances for showers and maybe some thunderstorms increase late next week, but confidence in timing and track is low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analyses show a midlevel low slowly moving eastward through Ontario, currently centered just northeast of Lake Superior. Meanwhile, another shortwave is rotating around this parent low, dropping into northwestern Lake Superior. Scattered rain showers continue to stream into the eastern UP, with just some spotty sprinkles at times more to the west. However, as the aforementioned shortwave drops through later this evening, expect an increase in the coverage of showers across the Keweenaw, north-central, and eastern UP. With chilly 850mb temperatures at around 5-6C and Lake Superior surface temperatures at around 18C, delta-Ts are such that there should be some lake enhancement into Alger and Luce counties. Additional rainfall totals should generally be below a tenth of an inch, but where we can enjoy that enhancement, higher totals in excess of 0.20in would be possible. Otherwise, cool, gloomy, and breezy weather continues with temperatures struggling even to crack the 60 degree mark in many spots. Look for temperatures to hover in the upper 50s to lower 60s this evening, while winds continue to gust to around 20-30mph especially across the eastern UP. Expect showers to slowly taper off tonight as the shortwave drops through and the main midlevel low continues to move eastward into Quebec. Cloud bases slowly lift, with some partial clearing at least across the western half of the UP. Temperatures fall back into the upper 40s and lower 50s across most of the area, but some of the typically cooler areas of the interior-western UP may see cooler overnight lows in the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 443 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Once the showers in the east end Sunday afternoon, a quiet and drier period sets up for the extended forecast. A blocky high pressure holds over the Great Lakes for the first half of next week. Confidence begins to drop off late next week into the weekend when a shortwave trough and associated sfc low traverse through the Great Lakes bringing chances for showers. The mid level low departs eastward to Quebec and 850 mb temps warm on Sunday, resulting in dry weather returning to all through the morning hours. Cloud cover off Lake Superior will be slow to clear through the day and with the cloud coverage and onshore flow, temps will stay just below normal with highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds are also expected to be less breezy than today with west to northwest gusts mainly below 20 mph. Lingering elevated wave heights and winds continue dangerous swimming conditions at Alger County beaches through early Sunday afternoon. High pressure begins to extend over the UP Sunday night into Monday. With skies clearing out, below normal temps continue. Lows are expected in the mid 40s to upper 50s, warmer near Lake Superior. A shortwave traverses to the south of the CWA on Monday. The NAM/UKMET are the northernmost solutions, but precip is not expected given the dry profiles in model soundings and the lack of PVA. Temps return near normal with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Lows Monday night settle into the 50s. Some lake breezes are possible on Tuesday as the high pressure becomes centered over the Great Lakes Basin. The Canadian and SREF are trying to put in some showers from diurnal instability and converging lake breezes. However, model soundings continue to lack low level moisture and instability is low (~100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE). At this time, dry weather is expected to continue through Wednesday as high pressure maintains over the basin and mid level ridging builds in; some diurnal cu is likely. Highs on Tuesday are expected in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows Tuesday night fall similar to Monday night in the 50s to low 60s, warmer near the Great Lakes. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day across the entire UP with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temps the rest of the extended hold around or just above normal with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Moving into the later part of the week, a shortwave is expected to move east from the Rockies on Wednesday through the Great Lakes Thursday night into the weekend bringing an associated sfc low with it. Model guidance is not doing a great job resolving the evolution of this system, so opted to mainly leave NBM PoPs as is. The one trend to pull out is that the onset of showers has slowed down. Chances begin Thursday, continuing into the weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected given the LREF mean SBCAPE struggles to break 200 J/kg. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 813 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Scattered rain showers and MVFR cigs will persist at CMX and SAW through this evening. Drier air, however, has already filtered into IWD and thus a return to VFR at that site. As the dry air overspreads CMX and SAW through the evening, VFR conditions will be restored at those sites as well. Meanwhile, wind gusts have tapered off at CMX and SAW, but sustained winds remain above the 12 kt threshold for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 443 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Northwest winds of 20-30 kts this afternoon across the lake gradually diminish through tonight to 20 kts by Sunday morning. Winds over the west half fall below 20 kts by midnight with winds over the east holding out until late tonight. There still is a low chance (~15-30%) for gale force gusts to 35 kts over the east through around midnight, particularly in LSZ266. Also, waterspouts are still possible, but chances decrease from west to east through early tonight. Westerly winds around 10-20 kts are expected on Sunday. Then, high pressure building in Sunday night and maintaining over the Great Lakes Monday through mid next week keep winds mainly below 15 kts. Uncertainty grows late next week into the following weekend regarding the next system, but winds are expected to remain below 20 kts through the rest of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...Jablonski AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...Jablonski
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Reno NV
124 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Warm weekend with pockets of smoke and haze. * Increased breezes bring fire weather concerns Sunday & Monday. * Seasonable temperatures with dry weather most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... * Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, with areas of minor to moderate HeatRisk in lower elevations. Dry air will allow temps to cool off enough at night to mitigate higher HeatRisk levels. * Smoke focus remains on Park and Crozier fires on the Sierra west slopes with fire activity continuing. HRRR Smoke sends narrow plumes from each fire to the E/NE today and tomorrow, so we could see haze and smoke impacts for Reno/Tahoe/Truckee and Susanville areas but confidence is mixed due to fire activity variability. * Winds kick up a little tomorrow but more so on Monday as upper trough moves into the Pac NW and N Cal. NBM guidance shows over 50% odds of wind gusts 35+ mph in wind prone areas Sunday afternoon, but that expands to most areas along and east of Hwy 395 on Monday afternoon. Even a 20% chance of gusts 45+ mph along Hwy 95 for Monday, so we could see some road travel impacts and dust, but fire weather is the main concern. See below. * Can`t rule out winds remaining breezy on Tuesday, but for the most part the balance of next week looks pretty quiet with seasonable temperatures. Dry air will allow for good cooling at night, so seeing consistent 50s in W Nevada cities and 30s in Sierra communities seems like a good bet. * Isolated t-storms are possible the following weekend (17th-18th) but this far out confidence is low and even NBM t-storm POPS are only 5-10% or so. Buildups a better bet. CPC 8-14 day outlook leans near normal on precip which this time of year isn`t much. -Chris && .AVIATION... * Generally good flying weather through the weekend for most areas. * Plumes of smoke/haze are possible near Tahoe/RNO and SVE from western Sierra fires, which could dip things into MVFR Saturday and Sunday evenings. * Upper trough swinging through will kick up winds a little on Sunday afternoon but more so on Monday where we will likely (60% probability) see surface gusts above 30 knots from late morning through the afternoon, along with mountain wave turbulence and low level wind shear. -Chris && .FIRE WEATHER... * Increased winds and low humidity Sunday & Monday, as upper trough approaches. * Areas of near critical fire weather conditions on Sunday with W/SW breezes gusting 20-30 mph, with 1-3 hours of critical in wind prone areas of the Sierra Front. * Monday has higher confidence of widespread critical winds as winds aloft and low level thermal gradients better align. NBM has 60%+ probability of gusts 30-40 mph across most areas along and east of Hwy 395. Have posted a Fire Weather Watch for Monday as a result. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening NVZ420-421-423-429-458. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening CAZ278. && $$