Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/08/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
704 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Yet another very hot day today as the Panhandles are on the eastern
periphery of the upper-level ridge. A seasonably robust upper-level
trough will dip into the Upper Midwest tonight, and a cold front
will move through the Plains through the night and through the day
Thursday.
The GFS, NAM, and most CAMs are in surprisingly good agreement
through 1 PM Thursday regarding the frontal timing... both of which
bring the front through all but the southeast Texas Panhandle. The
00z ECMWF and 12z HRRR have a more west-to-east oriented front, and
have it located around the I-40 corridor by 1 PM Thursday. However,
the 12z ECMWF has come in slightly more similar to the GFS/NAM/most
CAMs camp. This timing will be important as it will have a
significant impact on the highs, but there is good enough agreement
that Collingsworth county will be ahead of the front long enough in
the afternoon, and with aid from compressional heating associated
with the front, to warm up to 105 degrees for a Heat Advisory. The
main question is whether Donley and Wheeler counties will stay ahead
of the cold front for long enough, and as of right now, it seems as
though they may reach into the low-100s before the front, but not
quite to Heat Advisory criteria. On the other hand, due to
widespread cloud coverage behind the front, the northern Panhandles
may see their high temperature occur in the morning hours.
Behind the front will be a pretty steep surface pressure gradient
which should lead to breezy winds on the order of 15-25 kts. There
will also be some impressive moisture content pooled up behind the
front with PWATs around the 90th percentile. An embedded shortwave
trough may sneak into the northern combined Panhandles Thursday
night which may lead to showers and thunderstorms, but there is not
ideal agreement among guidance regarding this potential as a couple
CAMs (NAM NEST and FV3) keep much of the area dry. If it does pan
out, heavy rain will be a distinct possibility given the high PWATs
and sufficient instability for some thunderstorms. Strong to severe
thunderstorms do not look like much of a concern given the somewhat
limited instability. Flash flooding can`t be ruled out, but would
need rounds of storms to train over a location for that to be
possible.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Friday looks to feature below average temperatures for the
Panhandles as the post-cold frontal airmass sticks around,
especially in the northern Panhandles. There may be room to lower
temperatures further if morning clouds persist through the
afternoon, but currently the expectation is that the clouds will
break in the southern half of the Panhandles by the early afternoon
hours. If the NAM is correct, which has the more aggressively cool
airmass and most persistent clouds, much of the western and northern
halves of the Panhandles may not reach 70 degrees. However, this
is the outlier at this point.
A ridge riding shortwave trough is favored to move into the northern
combined Panhandles Friday night. This looks to be the most
favorable chance for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms through
this forecast package. Given the high PWATs in place, expecting
heavy rain and lightning to be the most prominent hazards. A
couple CAMs suggest there may be 1000-1500 J/kg of elevated
instability which could lead to a stronger thunderstorm, but not
overly concerned as thunderstorms, if there are any, should be
elevated. That said, can`t rule out some small hail as there will
be some wind shear and modestly cool temperatures aloft if that
instability does verify.
Saturday and beyond, temperatures warm back up quickly such that
100s return by Sunday and cover the majority of the Panhandles by
Monday. The GFS keeps the center of the upper-level ridge oriented
more into southeastern NM/southwestern TX while the 12z ECMWF keeps
it slightly stronger and more broad across the Southern US like
previous runs. The pattern on the GFS would favor daily chances for
thunderstorms across the Panhandles due to the northwesterly flow
aloft, while the ECMWF would favor mostly the northern combined
Panhandles with chances for thunderstorms every day or every other
day.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites
late tonight and Thursday morning with gusty north winds at times
behind this boundary. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across
northwestern sections of the area later Thursday afternoon. However,
confidence is low as to timing, location, and expected isolated
coverage so have opted not to mention at KDHT or KGUY for this
issuance.
02
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 70 94 65 88 / 0 10 20 20
Beaver OK 69 86 60 78 / 10 10 40 20
Boise City OK 65 80 57 79 / 20 40 50 30
Borger TX 73 94 65 90 / 0 10 30 20
Boys Ranch TX 68 94 63 89 / 0 10 30 20
Canyon TX 68 97 64 89 / 0 10 20 20
Clarendon TX 71 101 65 89 / 0 10 20 10
Dalhart TX 65 86 60 85 / 10 20 40 20
Guymon OK 66 83 58 78 / 20 20 50 20
Hereford TX 68 97 65 91 / 0 10 20 10
Lipscomb TX 73 93 62 83 / 0 10 30 20
Pampa TX 71 93 62 85 / 0 10 30 20
Shamrock TX 73 103 65 87 / 0 10 20 20
Wellington TX 73 106 67 91 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-007>010-
012>015-018>020.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ020.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...02
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
820 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.DISCUSSION...An area of high clouds (20-35kft MSL) will
continue lifting northward overnight as flow aloft becomes more
southerly. Clouds are blocking the satellite view of fire
temperature and smoke, but the continuation of west to north
surface winds overnight will push smoke south and east. Outside
of the vicinity of the fires, expect highest concentrations to
setup over Harney County, the w-central and Boise mountains and
along the foothills in the Snake Plain. Have updated the
forecast for cloud cover overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...Low VFR/MVFR with local IFR visibility near
wildfires (KBNO, KBOI). Patchy mountain obscuration. Surface
winds: variable 5-10 kt overnight into Thursday. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt.
KBOI...Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions from dense smoke. The
lowest visibility will be along the N-E quadrants. Broken high
clouds. Surface winds: SE 4-8 kt overnight through 21Z/Thu,
then NW 4-8 kt. Brief visibility improvement is possible
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Near-surface smoke
has become worse in western Idaho due to the Paddock Fire north
of Emmett. Latest HRRR shows a band of thick smoke spreading
southward from the fire into the Treasure Valley just before
sunset and continuing through around 3 AM MDT. After that it
spreads into the Magic Valley but not quite as thick. On Thursday
night the HRRR shows the smoke from that fire even worse than
tonight in the Treasure Valley. The smoke may lower high temps
slightly Thursday and Friday but not affect low temps.
Latest models keep our CWA dry through Thursday but a slight
chance (10-20 percent) of thunderstorms appears in Harney
County Thursday evening. By Friday morning a 15-25 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms will extend from Baker
County eastward across the Weiser River area into the Boise
Mountains. On Friday afternoon a 30-50 percent chance of
thunderstorms is indicated in central Idaho near the eastern
edge of our CWA. A 20-30 percent chance of thunderstorms
will continue Friday night in Baker County/OR and the Boise
Mountains in Idaho.
Winds will stay generally light and variable through Friday
morning, then north or northwest Friday afternoon. Gusts up to
25 mph in southeast Oregon and in the southwest Idaho Highlands.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Dry west to
southwesterly flow will continue through the long term.
Monsoon moisture will generally stay to the SE of the
forecast area. Temperatures will be a few degrees above
normal, but wildfire smoke may keep high temperatures
down a few degrees in the long term.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
854 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Severe weather threat has ended across far southeast Wyoming and
the southern Nebraska Panhandle for the rest of tonight, so the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled a few hours early.
Forecast for tonight has been updated with current
Surface cold front will continue moving south into Colorado late
this evening. We should have a 2 to 4 hour lull before showers
and thunderstorms redevelop along the front. These showers may
be locally heavy at times through early Thursday morning, but
the thunderstorms should be sub-severe. A chilly early August
day is forecast for Thursday with cloudy skies, areas of fog,
and temperatures stuck in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The only
exception will be Carbon County which may see highs in the mid
70s to low 80s.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms will continue tonight into Thursday with
the cold front passage dropping temperatures well below normal
for early August.
- Expecting a gradual warmup through the weekend returning to
near normal temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Cold front lays across central South Dakota...southwestward into
the northern Panhandle...to Torrington and then northwestward
to Riverton this afternoon. Thunderstorms have been developing
along and south of this front. RAP mesoanalysis guidance showing
SBCAPE south of the front around 2000 J/KG across southeast
WYoming and near 3000 J/KG across the southern Panhandle. Still
a little capped in the southern Panhandle with low level CIN
near -50 to -75 J/KG. Surface to 6km shear at 21Z near 40kts
across Cheyenne into the southern Panhandle.
As the afternoon progresses...believe we will see an increased
threat for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. SBCAPE
increases to 3500 J/KG across the southern Panhandle as the
front approaches from the north. HRRR simulated radar showing
discrete supercells developing as early as 22Z...continuing
through at least 01Z. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611 has been
issued for the area through 04Z tonight. One caveat would be the
anvil cirrus in northern Colorado limiting instability over our
watch area. Will continue to monitor.
Cold front move through the Cheyenne area between 03Z and 06Z
this evening with northeasterly low level winds developing
behind the front. Could see showers continuing overnight as
suggested by the HRRR/RAP simulated radars. Have followed their
guidance for tonight into Thursday. Another concern for tonight
will be low level stratus and fog for the Panhandle airports to
Cheyenne overnight.
Temperatures at 700mb behind the front cool down to the single
digits (+4 to +6C) across our eastern zones Thursday.
Temperatures Thursday likely in the 60s across our eastern zones
with the warmest temperatures out near Rawlins on the west side
of the front. Could see stratus and fog persisting through much
of the day Thursday east of the Laramie Range.
The front does not move too much through the evening Thursday
into Friday. So another cool day expected. PWATS remain high
Friday with over an inch in the Panhandle and near 1 inch at
Cheyenne. If we can get a few breaks in clouds to allow some
surface heating...could see good chances for showers and storms
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024
The long term will see a return to warmer temperatures while
sustaining a fairly active pattern with near-daily chances for
precipitation across the forecast area.
Broad ridging will build over much of western CONUS this weekend,
leading to the start of warming temperatures throughout the extended
forecast. This stagnant ridge will linger over much of the country
into next week, allowing for gradual warm air advection out of the
southwest. 700 mb temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper
single digits to about 14C, leading to slightly below average
temperatures across much of the CWA. Temperatures return to average
by Sunday, with 700 mb temperatures a few degrees warmer. High
temperatures will continue to rise through mid-week, with 700 mb
temperatures approaching the 90th percentile for climatology by
Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday, high temperatures could be back
into the low 90s for many areas east of the Laramie Range.
As mentioned, the long term will be fairly active, with almost daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. The position of the upper-
level high over Texas, and the near stationary nature of the ridge,
will lead to south to southwest flow throughout the majority of the
long term. This will allow the CWA to tap into monsoon moisture,
raising PWs across much of the area. A few shortwaves moving through
the ridge for the duration of the long term, as well as the
increased moisture, will lead to scattered storms over the weekend
and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will affect CYS, LAR, BFF, SNY and
possibly AIA this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds from the west
as well as VIS and brief CIG reductions are possible into the
MVFR and perhaps IFR range for a few minutes. Later this
evening, a cold front will drop south from the north bringing
low stratus clouds to all terminals from I-25 eastward. IFR
ceilings are likely with this event especially at CYS, BFF and
SNY. There is some uncertainty if IFR ceilings will make it
into LAR overnight and the current forecast may be adjusted
later to account for a more favorable wind direction flow.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...MAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
...Updated Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm system to impact areas along/north of Highway 96
tonight with Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms,
mainly midnight or after
- Much cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s for up to
three straight days (Thursday-Saturday)
- Friday Night and Saturday Night will be the best chances for
large thunderstorm cluster(s) to move across southwest Kansas
with a high chance (40-50%) of widespread 1"+ across much of
our region out of the two days combined through Sunday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
The major pattern change that has been the focus of previous
discussions was underway this afternoon as the summer subtropical
ridge continued to weaken with increased west-northwest flow aloft
across Wyoming and Montana...into Nebraska and the Dakotas. Winds
behind yesterday`s front became southerly to southeasterly with
warm, moist air mass nosing back to the northwest into northeastern
Colorado. Satellite was already showing incipient thunderstorm
development over the Front Range and the Cheyenne Ridge region.
All short term convection-allowing models (CAMs) show a strong
signal of a rather well-organized mesoscale convective system (MCS)
through the nighttime hours, tracking east-southeast along the
favorable Theta-E axis. Using the 12Z HREF 25km neighborhood 60%
contour of 35+ dBZ Composite Reflectivity, the MCS will most likely
track from northeast Colorado across northwest Kansas, reaching
roughly a US-283 line from Norton to near WaKeeney by 05-06Z time
frame (Midnight-1 AM CDT). 50-60% (25km neighborhood) probs continue
all the way into north central/central KS by 09Z (4 AM CDT) and
onward towards east central Kansas toward daybreak Thursday. This
MCS is likely to at least clip our northern counties Trego-Ellis to
the point that we have increased POPs to 60+ for WaKeeney and Hays.
Most areas of our southwest Kansas region, south of Highway 96, will
most likely not see much precipitation with this initial MCS to
start this multi-day pattern, but the wind shift from a fairly
intense outflow boundary will be felt in the 09-12Z time frame early
Thursday morning. Winds will likely gust 35 to 45 mph at times, well
away from the MCS with even higher gusts closer to the MCS late in
the night. In fact, the latest 18Z run of the HRRR is modeling 50+
knot gusts from near Hays down to around Great Bend immediately in
advance of the MCS from the well-developed cold pool. The outflow
boundary itself will not necessarily be the synoptic front passage
itself, although the synoptic front will push in a few hours after
later in the morning, only increasing the low level cold air
advection which will continue much of the day Thursday along with
low stratus cloud cover (12Z HREF Probability of Broken-Overcast Low
Cloud Cover 70% or greater advancing south beginning mid-late
morning). The official afternoon temperatures will follow closely
the 25th percentile 12Z HREF numbers given the forecast of low
clouds and low level cold advection, which results in afternoon
highs near 70F around Scott City to WaKeeney...lower-mid 70s down to
Garden City-Jetmore-La Crosse...to lower 80s for highs from Ashland
to Pratt. It is quite possible we are not going far enough south
with the 75F isotherm for late afternoon temperatures, but that will
be refined in the overnight update.
Looking ahead, Friday and Saturday will also be cool and moist, but
the east/southeast upslope low level winds will draw low level
moisture back into Colorado for more thunderstorm development. The
axis of Friday Night and/or Saturday Night MCS will likely focus on
west central and southwest Kansas, and if the MCS is large, most of
our forecast area will see well in excess of a half an inch of rain
(100-member Grand Ensemble 24-hr QPF in excess of 0.50" at 40%
percent, ending 12Z Saturday). The same probabilistic field shows 30-
50% across the southeastern half of the DDC CWA over the next 24-hr
period ending 12Z Sunday.
Using more probabilistic numbers off the latest 12Z Grand Ensemble,
combining the two best looking nights (Friday Night and Saturday
Night), the probability of 1"+ comes out to 40-50% across almost the
entire forecast area, further increasing our confidence that either
one or both of the nights coming up will really focus on west
central, southwest, and south central Kansas.
Saturday Night will not be the end of it, as we will not see the
summer subtropical ridge build back in any time soon next week, so
once the atmosphere recharges again with instability and we see deep
tropospheric moisture move back north through the week (which will
eventually happen), more MCSs will be likely affecting our region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Radar at 04z depicted a MCS in progress across west central and
northwest Kansas, with more scattered rain showers in the
vicinity of GCK/LBL. Overnight through 12z Thu, activity will
focus eastward toward the HYS vicinity, where -SHRA was included
for several hours Thursday morning. All other TAFs were left
dry. An unseasonably strong cold front is expected to arrive
during the 15-18z Thu time range, with a sharp increase in
northeast winds, gusting to near 30 kts. Followed the stronger
NAM winds for this TAF package. Widespread post frontal MVFR
stratus is expected Thursday morning/midday, most likely at
GCK/HYS, with lesser confidence at DDC, and none at LBL.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1027 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some rivers and creeks over central and east-central Wisconsin
will continue to run high through late this week due to recent
heavy rain.
- On and off chances for showers return tonight and continue
through this weekend. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
at times, but the risk of severe weather and flooding is low.
- Cool and breezy weather is forecast for Friday and Saturday. A
small craft advisory may be need at times due to gusty
northwest winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Thursday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak
area of high pressure stretching from southwest to northeast
across Wisconsin early this afternoon. However, mid and high
clouds are rapidly spreading across the area from the west and
ahead of cold front positioned across northwest Minnesota and the
central Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the
front in a region of elevated instability over South Dakota and
Nebraska. As this front moves across the region, precipitation
and thunderstorm potential are the focus of this forecast.
Precipitation: Strong height falls over the northern Plains and
northern Mississippi River Valley will push the cold front east
and across the region from late tonight through Thursday
afternoon. A pre-frontal shortwave impulse could bring an area of
showers to north-central Wisconsin this evening and will carry low
precip chances. Thereafter, chances of rain will increase (60-70%)
late tonight over central and north-central WI with the
approaching front.
In general, precip chances will diminish as the front moves into
eastern WI as the precipitable water axis thins out. But scattered
showers will also be possible over northeast WI by midday through
late afternoon.
Thunderstorm Potential: The front will be moving into north-
central WI during the diurnal minimum of instability. Elevated
instability is forecast to be under 100 j/kg, so thunderstorm
chances look low (10-20%). Even with daytime heating, forecast
instability is only expected to reach 100-200 j/kg which doesn`t
point to the possibility of strong storms. An isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out and will leave a slight chance
mention in the forecast.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Generally, cool and showery weather is forecast on Friday and
Saturday, which will be followed by a warming trend next week.
This weekend: Upper level low pressure will be spinning over the
Lake Superior region through Saturday before exiting to the east
on Sunday. On the southern periphery of this upper low, breezy
northwest winds will usher in cool airmass into the region with
850mb temps falling to 3-5C over northern WI. Low convective temps
combined with unstable conditions over Lake Superior will likely
lead to showery weather at times, particularly in the afternoon
with the heating of the day. The shower activity will be most
widespread over far northern WI where moisture will be deeper and
there is additional support from lake effect.
Northwest winds will be breezy at times with gusts of 25 to 30 mph
expected. Small craft advisories look likely at times.
Temps will be the coolest on Friday with highs in the 60s to near
70. Then readings warm back into the low to middle 70s by Sunday.
Next week: Temperatures moderate as the upper trough exits and
mid and upper flow back to the west. Weak high pressure will be
present during the early to middle of next week. Models indicate
light precip will be possible around the middle of the week, but
the systems look low amplitude and predictability is low.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Scattered light showers or sprinkles were occurring over northern
and parts of central WI late this evening, but VFR conditions
prevailed. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR at RHI, and MVFR at AUW/CWA overnight into Thursday
morning as showers increase with the arrival of a cold front.
Scattered showers should also impact the Fox Valley during the
early to mid afternoon, along with potential for a brief period of
MVFR ceilings. Although an isolated storm or two is possible with
the frontal passage, the probability is too low to include at any
given TAF site. As the rain ends from west to east on Thursday,
ceilings should gradually rise, and clearing should occur during
the mid to late afternoon. Some low clouds may work their way
back into NC WI late Thursday evening, but perhaps not until after
06z/Fri at RHI.
Light southerly winds will become westerly after the frontal
passage, with gusts to around 20 knots possible at times on
Thursday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
854 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is possible tonight near the Illinois River Valley
and portions of the I-74 corridor and may reduce visibility to
under a mile in spots.
- Slightly below normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail
through the remainder of the week and into this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows the pesky stratus
that stuck around all day is at last breaking up, which has
recently hastened the decline in temps. Visibilities still remain
10sm across the Prairie State, but dew point depressions
(currently 3-6 degF) are on the decline and both the ARW and HRRR
continue to suggest transient/patchy fog developing before dawn.
Only small changes were made to expand the patchy fog mention in
our forecast between 5 and 8 am tomorrow (i.e., Thursday)
morning.
Bumgardner
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
THROUGH TONIGHT...
This afternoon, low pressure has settled south of the Ohio Valley
and is departing the region while high pressure is spreading east
from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes. Ridging extending
SW from the high will overspread central Illinois this evening and
overnight. Skies should be able to gradually clear from the NW in
response allowing for strong radiational cooling. Temps are
expected to fall into the lower 60s tonight with a few spots near
and north of the I-74 corridor dipping into the 50s. Meanwhile,
some patchy fog is possible, especially across portions of the
lower and mid Illinois River Valley closest to the ridge axis
tonight.
THURSDAY...
Low pressure will very slowly track east across northern Ontario
Thursday pushing a cold front across portions of the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes. The tail end of the cold front or col area /
neutral point will track across central Illinois. Weak forcing,
dry mid levels, and strong capping should prevent any convection
from occurring with passage of this feature. In its wake, a modest
northerly breeze will overspread central Illinois with gusts
picking up to around 20mph at times Thursday evening and
overnight.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Behind Thursday`s cold frontal passage, a reinforcing shot of
cooler air will overspread central Illinois. Cold air advection
will drive steep lapse rates Friday which will allow gusty winds
to mix down to the surface, peaking in the 20 to 25 mph range
Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, temps will bottom out Friday and
Saturday with highs generally in the mid 70s and lows Saturday
morning in the lower to mid 50s. Surface ridge axis will
overspread much of hte Midwest this weekend resulting in fair
weather conditions.
NEXT WEEK...
High pressure will shift east with the baroclinic zone lifting
back north to portions of the mid Mississippi River Valley
starting early next week. Warm air advection across central
Illinois will drive daily precip chances through the first half
of next week. Temperatures will also undergo a gradual warming
trend through at least the first half of next week with low to mid
80s back in the forecast by Wednesday.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
MVFR ceilings have at last lifted into the low VFR category
(generally FL040 to FL050) this evening. Guidance continues to
suggest these clouds will dissipate completely, but this process
seems to be taking longer than modeled so there are some doubts as
to whether and when this will happen. This has been pushed back
another hour in this TAF package, until around 02z/9pm. Winds will
continue to gradually ease tonight, becoming light to favor
radiational cooling for some patchy fog towards daybreak.
Confidence is low in where and when this will occur, but has been
most consistent at PIA nearer the current back edge of the
stratus. After around 13z, whatever fog manages to form will
quickly burn off while stratocumulus with bases near the MVFR/VFR
threshold of FL030 redevelops. HREF guidance only suggests a
30-45% chance this becomes a ceiling (highest at SPI, DEC, and
CMI), with slightly lower chances of it being MVFR, though
guidance has been underdoing current clouds so ultimately the
current forecast could be slightly too optimistic. We`ll reassess
at the 06z package issuance.
Bumgardner
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Thunderstorm chances are the main concern late this afternoon
and especially this evening. Strong gusty winds would be the
main threat across portions of southwest Nebraska this evening.
-Cooler and showery weather is expected both Thursday and
Friday. Friday highs across portions of the region have the
potential of being the coolest since August 1997.
-Temperatures do moderate during the weekend, but will still
remain below normal.
-Areas of the next several days could see between 1-2" of
rainfall. The precipitation will be showery/convective in
nature, so amounts will likely vary with some not seeing those
types of amounts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
A cold front is moving slowly southward through the Sandhills this
afternoon. South of this front low-level southeasterly upslope flow
is helping to maintain a moist instability axis from southwest
Nebraska into the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of a
eastern Wyoming and northern Colorado late this afternoon ahead of
an approaching shortwave. Effective shear profiles/instability are
supportive of storm organization across the central and southern
Panhandle late this afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR and CAMs
suggest a cold pool will form with a damaging wind threat becoming
possible as storms accelerate southeastward across southwest
Nebraska this evening. Other storms may develop along the southward
sagging front across portions of north central Nebraska as mid-level
FGEN increases after early evening. The most intense storms should
exit the area by later this evening, but favorable jet dynamics and
mid-level FGEN will remain in place through Friday morning. This
seems a good set up for at least scattered showers. Elevated weak
instability remains so some thunder is also possible.
The other story will be the much cooler temperatures that will
filter south into the region behind the cold front. Friday looks
particularly cool, with the lingering cloud cover and possible
morning light precipitation. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 60s
across portions of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. The last
time North Platte experienced a high of 65 degrees or cooler was
August 11, 1997. Highs are forecast to be right around this mark, so
this is an exceptionally cool pattern.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Below normal temperatures are expected through this weekend into
the first of next week. Northwest flow aloft will persist, and a
series of weak shortwaves will bring an increasing chance for
showers/thunder back to the area Sunday night into Monday.
Highs through the weekend should generally average in the lower to
mid 70s. Highs Monday may moderate slightly, but with increased
cloud cover and showers around may be hard pressed to reach much
above 80.
By the middle and end of next week, upper level ridging aloft begins
to expand northward once again across the Rockies and western high
plains. This will bring a return to at least normal temperatures.
Monsoonal sub-tropical appears to develop northward within the
expanding ridge. This will likely bring diurnal rounds of convection
to the higher elevations of Colorado and Wyoming. Some of this
activity may try and work eastward during the overnight hours, so
there will be at least some chance for spotty rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024
VFR conditions are expected across western and north central
Nebraska tonight outside of thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms
this evening and tonight may result in brief MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic winds across the Sandhills into southwest
Nebraska, potentially impacting LBF. Timing of activity at LBF
anticipated between 03Z to 05Z Thursday with the bulk of any
thunderstorms remaining south of VTN. Will rely
heavily on radar and satellite trends for possible amendments.
Stratus development appears likely across western
and southwestern Nebraska Thursday morning, with IFR CIGs
anticipated. Though this appears to remain south and west of
KLBF, this will need to be monitored with subsequent TAFs.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Viken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
852 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Isolated convective chances coming to an end around mid-late evening;
first along the Volusia coast with some activity dropping
southward and second south from Melbourne. Otherwise some ISOLD-
SCT showers and lightning storms remain possible over the adjacent
coastal waters overnight. SWRLY gusty winds should diminish this
evening to around 10 mph or less. Another very warm night is in
store, with lows forecast in the U70-L80s once again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Isolated convection remains possible thru mid-late evening near
KDAB, and further towards KMLB southward, otherwise conditions
mostly dry overnight. Winds remain out of the southwest,
diminishing less than 10 kts overnight. Winds will increase back
to 8-12 kts on Thu with some occasional higher gusts. Guidance is
hinting at the potential for some VCSH/VCTS tomorrow afternoon
beyond 18Z. VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.Updated...Overnight...Winds continue below guidance and will replace
the offshore Small Craft Advisory with Cautionary Statements
overnight for southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots well offshore. Seas
2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore. Isolated to Scattered showers
and lightning storms will remain possible, esp over the Gulf
Stream.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Key Messages:
- Heat impacts expected to increase Thursday into Friday as
temperatures quickly climb into the 90s, which combined with
increasing humidity, will result in heat index values of 105-110
and Major HeatRisk.
Recap of the Day...Low-level moisture and instability, plus a
jump start from lightning storms that formed in the Gulf of
Mexico, were able to overcome the dry mid-levels and produce a
semi- continuous line of strong lightning storms that pushed
across the southern counties from the late morning through the
afternoon, right into the Heat Advisory. Vero Beach, Fort Pierce,
Stuart, and Okeechobee airports all managed to reach peak heat
indices of 108 in the early afternoon, but showers and storms then
brought temperatures down and relief to those areas, most of
which are still in the 80s as of 330 PM.
Rest of Today-Tonight...Most of the showers and lightning storms
have pushed south and offshore, and while a few more are
attempting to develop on the western side of the peninsula,
they`re moving into areas already worked over and struggling. The
HRRR remains optimistic some of this could become more vigorous as
it moves into the southern counties, which have been warming back
up, so keeping 20-30 pct PoPs across the southern counties in the
forecast. RAP analysis shows plenty of instability remains draped
across this area (MUCAPE up to 4,000 J/kg and MLCAPE up to 3,000
J/kg), so there continues to be potential for stronger storms
capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent cloud to ground
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Will also continue 20-30
pct PoPs to the north for rain band like showers and storms from
southern extent of Tropical Storm Debby, but the environment is
much less favorable for stronger storms. Locations that stayed dry
are forecast to see highs reach the L-M90s, and spots that got a
good soaking should top out near 90 in the next hour or so.
Another very warm night is in store, with lows forecast in the
U70-L80s again.
Thursday - Friday (Previous Discussion)...Offshore flow wins out
as the surface ridge axis holds well south of us. Sea breeze
formation looks very tough on Thursday (except perhaps along the
Treasure Coast) with a better chance of a pinned sea breeze by
Friday. So, with limited convergence and a slight diminution of
moisture aloft, we`ll be relegated to airmass-type storm
development on Thursday (~40% coverage). By Friday, moisture
increases slightly, leading to a 50-60% chance of afternoon
showers and storms.
The low-level thermal ridge noses from Louisiana to North and
Central Florida through this timeframe, ensuring continued
sweltering temperatures. Statistical guidance keeps us in the mid
90s both afternoons. Thursday is likely to be the warmer of the
two as low-level thicknesses max out over the peninsula; a few
upper 90s could even occur. Heat indices from 105-110F are
forecast, once again encroaching on Heat Advisory criteria. Major
HeatRisk should persist over much of the area, indicative of an
environment where anyone can succumb to heat illness without
proper access to cooling and hydration.
This Weekend (Previous Discussion)...As mentioned above, a slight
weakness in the H5 field continues to appear in the ensemble
means. Moisture increases just a touch, and with lessening
background winds, the sea breeze circulation should get going in
earnest. This portends better coverage of afternoon showers and
storms (50-70%). Those low to mid 90s are not going anywhere, but
hopefully, some of us will see some cooling rain. Max heat indices
should reach 102-107F each day.
Early Next Week (Previous Discussion)...The surface high-pressure
axis will attempt to lift toward Central Florida as ensembles
cluster on a NW-SE oriented H5 ridge axis from TX to FL. With H5
T`s rising toward -4C beneath the ridge, capped rain/storm chances
just slightly below climatology (40-50%) next Mon-Wed. Widespread
low/mid 90s are predicted to continue along with triple-digit heat
indices.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Rest of Today-Tonight...The southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Debbie continues to influence marine conditions in the local
Atlantic waters. The wind forecast has been very tricky. Pressure
analysis and low-level winds would generally point to winds higher
than observed. Have been adjusting winds down, but also don`t
want to over correct, especially since low-level winds are
forecast to increase tonight over the Volusia and Brevard offshore
waters. Thus have not just continued the Small Craft Advisory for
the aforementioned waters, but also extended later tonight for
winds around 20 kts. However, this is a very marginal SCA, and
mainly for well offshore. Small craft should exercise caution in
the Treasure Coast offshore waters. Closer to shore, boating
conditions improving as winds decrease to 10-15 kts with seas 2-3
ft, and should be generally favorable by morning.
Thursday-Sunday (Previous Discussion)... High pressure remains to
our south as Debby departs, leaving us with SSW winds of 10-17 KT
Thu/Fri, then 7-13 KT this weekend. Limited sea-breeze development
until Friday and the weekend. Seas 2-4 FT Thu, then 2-3 FT
thereafter. A daily chance (30-50%) of showers and a few storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 78 96 78 94 / 40 40 10 50
MCO 80 95 79 94 / 20 40 10 60
MLB 78 94 77 93 / 20 40 20 50
VRB 77 94 76 93 / 20 40 10 50
LEE 80 94 79 93 / 20 40 10 50
SFB 80 95 79 95 / 30 50 10 50
ORL 81 95 79 94 / 20 40 10 60
FPR 77 94 76 93 / 20 40 10 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ570-572.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
420 PM MST Wed Aug 7 2024
.Update...00Z Aviation Discussion
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances will continue this afternoon and evening
across south-central Arizona with the greatest chances across the
higher terrain areas north and east of Phoenix. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing strong winds along with locally heavy
rainfall. Rain chances will gradually diminish into the weekend
with chances retreating to mainly over higher terrain areas by
Saturday as drier air works into the region. Near to slightly
below normal temperatures today and tomorrow will give way to
warming temperatures heading into the weekend with highs likely
topping out near or above 110 degrees across the lower deserts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite WV imagery and RAP analysis showed an inverted
trough situated over the northern Gulf of California near the
international border with southwest Arizona and northern Mexico.
Temperatures so far this afternoon are running around 5-10 degrees
cooler compared to 24 hours ago with many lower desert areas still
under the century mark early this afternoon. Highs this afternoon
will generally top out between 100-106 degrees, which is near to
slightly below normal for this time of year.
Early afternoon satellite and radar showed convection along the
Mogollon Rim along with a few storms popping up across southeast
Arizona. Easterly steering flow around 10-15 kts will help push
thunderstorms off the Rim and into southern Gila County through
this afternoon into the early evening hours. MUCAPE values upwards
of 1000-1500 J/kg along with DCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg
may support some stronger to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms
capable of producing strong downbursts. HREF paintball plots show
good confidence in thunderstorms developing across southern Gila
County this afternoon/evening with less confidence in
thunderstorms surviving into the lower deserts. Thunderstorm
development into the lower deserts will have to contend with
greater CIN, which will prove difficult to overcome without some
good outflows. However, strong/deep and/or colliding outflows
could be enough to overcome some of this inhibition to pop off a
few thunderstorms across the Valley. Several 12Z HREF members
indicate this possibility, showing isolated showers and
thunderstorms surviving into parts of the south-central Arizona
lower deserts. There is better confidence in thunderstorm
development across far northern portions of Maricopa County,
including the northern foothills and the Wickenburg area. Any
stronger thunderstorms that were to develop across the lower
deserts this evening would be capable of producing strong
downbursts, which could lead to blowing dust, and locally heavy
rainfall. In terms of rainfall, the 12Z HREF suggests a greater
chance of seeing some locally heavy rainfall amounts across
southern County where there is about a 50% chance of seeing 3 hour
QPF exceed 1". Thus, isolated instances of flash flooding will be
possible.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Starting Thursday, guidance still favors some drying to begin
across the western deserts and this should end chances for rain
west of the CO River. Decent monsoon moisture should still persist
across south-central and eastern Arizona, so it`s likely we will
see another day of isolated to scattered afternoon convection. By
Friday into Saturday, drier air is expected to filter into the
rest of southern and central Arizona from the southeast and this
should lower storm chances further mainly limiting any convection
to higher terrain areas. At the same time, the subtropical high
which is forecast to shift into the Southern Plains over the next
couple of days is expected to strengthen and expand back into our
region. As H5 heights rise to around 594-596dm by Saturday and
we lose boundary layer moisture, temperatures will warm Friday
into Saturday with highs likely reaching 110-114 degrees across
the lower deserts Saturday. This may result in some areas of Major
HeatRisk on Saturday and potentially on Sunday before the
subtropical high begins to weaken again into early next week.
There are also signs of some improving moisture again by around
next Monday and if this comes to fruition it may mark another
increase in monsoon activity.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2320Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Winds should follow typical diurnal trends, with a few gusts this
evening in the mid-teens. There are hints of a weak outflow from
distant thunderstorm activity working its way through the metro,
potentially disrupting the usual winds trends but overall
confidence in any wind shifts related to this feature are low at
this time. An isolated shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of
the terminals cannot be completely ruled out but most activity
should remain off to the north and east. SCT to BKN skies will
prevail through tonight, with the lowest bases around 10k ft.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds at
IPL will be primarily out of the SE but a brief switch to the SW
is possible early tonight. At BLH, familiar diurnal trends
should prevail, with gusts this evening around 20 kts. FEW-SCT
mid and high level clouds will be present through tomorrow
morning, before coverage decreases by the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across the Arizona high terrain with lower chances
across the Arizona lower deserts. The primary concern with
thunderstorms will continue to be strong, erratic outflow winds
with up to a 50-70% chance of winds to exceed 35 mph across south-
central Arizona. Locally heavy rainfall may also accompany
thunderstorms, especially across southern Gila County.
Thunderstorm chances continue again Thursday afternoon with gusty,
erratic outflows remaining the primary concern, before a drying
for the end of the week leads to decreasing thunderstorm chances,
particularly across the lower elevations. Outside of thunderstorms,
winds will overall favor diurnal tendencies. Min RHs will be
around 20-40% and Max RHs around 40-70% over the next couple of
days, with a gradual drying trend occurring for the end of the
week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Smith
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
757 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue through the
end of the week high pressure persists over the Southwestern US.
Increasing moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening
convection across eastern Mohave County today with chances expanding
into southern Nevada and eastern San Bernardino County on Thursday.
Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will return each
afternoon through the weekend for areas south and east of the I-15
corridor as moisture remains trapped underneath the ridge of high
pressure.
&&
.UPDATE...Other than a few showers and thunderstorms that popped up
in the Mt Trumbull area as well as in the terrain around Las Vegas,
it was a quiet and dry evening weather-wise across the region.
Despite there being ample CAPE noted per mesoanalysis and on the 00Z
Las Vegas sounding, significant mixed layer CIN and sinking dry air
around 500mb has prevent any convection from popping and even
cumulus struggled today. Without a significant trigger or forcing to
kick things passed these limiting factors, nothing of consequence
was able to develop. Models have backed off of precipitation changes
for the evening and overnight hours and have adjusted the forecast
accordingly. If something were able to develop, it would likely come
off the complex of storms currently north of Wickenburg, AZ. Left in
slight chance for showers and storms for tonight in far southern
Mohave County, mainly south of Wikieup and Needles. Also something
to watch for the overnight period is if an outflow develops from the
convection currently in the Grand Canyon and Williams area. Some
models have an outflow moving from these storms west through Mohave
County and even into portions of Clark and eastern San Bernardino
counties. Given the lack of convection today and that downdraft CAPE
is lower than yesterday, the risk for sudden gusty winds is lower
and not anticipating this solution to manifest...but with storms
still on radar it is still a possibility and will need to be watched
as sudden wind gusts 20 to 30 MPH would be possible if this occurred.
Otherwise, it will be a dry night. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler than last night`s temperatures.
-Nickerson-
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1245 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.SHORT TERM...through Thursday night.
Some light showers pushing west through Mohave County associated with
a weak disturbance will continue pushing west into San Bernardino
County before gradually falling apart. These showers have generally
been light with none of the gauges reporting any measurable
rainfall. With the extensive cloud cover associated with this weak
disturbance it will likely suppress convection this afternoon across
Mohave County at least into mid-afternoon. The latest HRRR continues
to show some thunderstorm development after 00z over portions of
Mohave County and with some additional sunshine this afternoon it
should help destabilize things and allow for convection to develop.
Also starting to see some cu development over the Spring and Sheep
Range, so some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
into this evening. With plenty of low level moisture and more
sunshine we are expected to see better coverage of storms Thursday,
especially across Mohave County and the higher terrain of southern
Nevada. Some of the hires models are indicating the potential of
strong outflow winds originating from Mohave and Coconino Counties
and pushing west through the Colorado River zones and into southern
Nevada and eastern San Bernardino County late Thursday afternoon. We
will need to watch for the potential of gusty winds combined with
areas of blowing dust. We will also need to watch for the potential
of flash flooding with some of these storms as we continue to see
increasing PW values.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.
Continuing to watch how monsoonal moisture will interact with an
inverted trough Friday and Saturday. Models remain in decent
agreement that wave will shift into southern California from the
Baja Peninsula while PWAT`s over 1 inch pool in areas southeast of
the I-15. If forcing from the system can combine with this
anomalously high moisture pool, robust convection with heavy rain
and flash flooding impacts will be possible Friday and Saturday
afternoons. However, models at this time keep the two features
separate. While thunderstorm chances will increase and spread into
portions of southeast Nevada, eastern San Bernardino County, and
Mohave County, there is not a signal for a widespread high impact
rain event. QPF EFIs do not paint any climatologically high rainfall
areas and long term ensemble probabilities for 24 hour rainfall
accumulations over 0.5 or 1.00 inches are low or non-existent.
PWATs will be around 100-125% or normal, so heavy rain and flash
flooding will be possible but the outlook for an extreme event is
currently low. That said- will need to watch how things change as we
move into the higher res model domain and for any mesoscale features
that develop that could increase impacts and thunderstorm
expectations. Modest instability will be in place, especially over
Mohave County, so thunderstorms will be possible in general which
would bring lightning, small hail, and gusty wind threats.
High pressure over the Four Corners region will then slowly be
broken down and pushed out of the area Sunday through the beginning
of next week in response to an incoming West Coast trough. As the
high retreats and the flow becomes southwest, drier air will move
into the region which will result in a downward trend in
thunderstorms chances each day. Sunday could still be fairly active
as PWATs remain elevated but compared to Friday and Saturday,
coverage and risk area should be lower and further east.
Thunderstorm chances will then quickly diminish and shift eastward
Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures Will remain slightly above normal Friday and Saturday
before temperatures start to slowly cool each day with the incoming
trough. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures should drop to near
normal for this time of the year.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southeasterly winds should shift
to the southwest around sunset, remaining southwesterly through most
of the night. Intermittent gusts between 15 and 20 knots will last
through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Winds after 06Z may
strengthen due to outflows from storms over northwest Arizona, with
peak gusts between 20 and 25 knots. By 12Z, winds weaken and become
variable. Winds shift to the southeast once again by Thursday
afternoon. Thunderstorms may also develop over high terrain around
Las Vegas on Thursday afternoon, but at this time confidence is low
on location and timing. Any storms that form may produce heavy
rainfall and gusty erratic outflow winds.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy southerly winds continue through the afternoon
and overnight at all Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley
terminals. Winds at these sites may strengthen overnight as outflow
winds from thunderstorms over Arizona reach the terminals. Overall
winds should weaken in the early morning hours. Westerly winds
persist through the TAF period at KDAG with gusts increasing to
around 20 knots in the evening. Likewise, winds remain northerly to
northwesterly at KBIH, also becoming gusty in the evening.
Thunderstorms may develop near the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado
River Valley on Thursday afternoon, but confidence is currently low
on location and timing. Any storms that form may produce heavy
rainfall and gusty erratic outflow winds.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Meltzer
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