Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/28/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Weather will trend mainly drier and definitely hotter across
central and northern New Mexico to close out July. Some relief
from the heat, as well as increased coverage of monsoonal showers
and thunderstorms, returns for the first few days of August.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Drier air at mid-levels, rotating around a ridge axis stretching
from southeastern AZ into central CO, has kept a lid on convective
coverage so far early this afternoon. Also of note on the 12Z ABQ
sounding were two subsident/stable layers with bases near 700mb
and 500mb...yet precipitable water was 1.09 inches. Latest HRRR
run still suggests that storm coverage will moderately increase
over the next few hours, peaking around 5-7 PM, before tapering
off toward sunset. Mid/upper-level ridge axis will be nosing
closer as well, so not expecting convection to persist as long
into the evening as last night.
Heading into Sunday, the focus will turn to heat for most, though
scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected during the
afternoon roughly for areas along and west of the central mountain
chain and south of I-40. The upper-level high center is progged to
drift to near ELP, with 500mb temps on the warmer side at -4 to
-5 deg C. However, both the NAM and GFS indicate a weak mid-level wave
rounding the western flank of the high and moving through the
southwestern portion of the area during the afternoon/early
evening. This is where the highest rain chances will lie. Flash
flood guidance in portions of the southwest mountains/Gila NF is
as low as 1.0-1.5 inches in one hour, with HREF ensemble maxima
indicating a few storms could be capable of this. However, not
seeing a widespread enough signal for a Flash Flood Watch. The
heat will be back on as well, generally 5-7 deg F above normal
from the RGV eastward, with the ABQ metro reaching the mid-90s
and spots in the eastern plans pushing 100F. More on the heat in
the long-term section, below...
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Heat builds over much of the state for the last few days of July,
peaking on Wednesday or perhaps Thursday. On Monday, the centroid
of the upper high starts drifting toward west Texas, though
heights remain fairly high along ridging stretching back westward.
Scattered storms should be present once again over the
southwestern mountains, with more isolated activity along the
central mountain chain. Such will be the case again on Tuesday,
perhaps with some enhancement from a modest jet max ahead of a
subtropical upper low moving up the Gulf of California. Will have
to keep an eye on rainfall amounts/soil conditions in this area if
repeated rounds of storms occur over the next several days.
Roswell may be pushing Heat Advisory criterion as soon as Monday,
with the current forecast high at 104F, though this will be more
likely Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday, when Heat Risk
category rises squarely into the "High" level. The Albuquerque
metro area may also need Heat Advisories, though with the
aforementioned high nudging eastward, we may not hit the century
mark here. Heat stress will still be a factor, with those upper
90s temps running 5-7 degrees above normal.
A little more uncertainty creeps into the forecast late in the
week, but overall, more isolated to scattered diurnal
thunderstorms and some relief from the heat will be the rule. On
Thursday, the subtropical ridge actually rebounds westward, in our
direction. A modest back-door cold front is also progged to move
through the northeast portion of the state, with attendant
easterly flow behind pumping up surface dewpoints back above 50F
for areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Heading into Friday and beyond, the upper high drifts back toward
the Four Corners, or possibly further north along the UT/CO
border. The ECMWF has the low center further north, for what it`s
worth, and ensemble clusters don`t clearly favor either
positioning. At any rate, the lesser heights would suggest temps
closer to normal and continued typical monsoon shower/storm
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Scattered showers/storms are trekking southeast over portions of
Catron and western Socorro Counties as well as off the Sangre de
Cristo Mts. There is isolated coverage of showers/storms b/w these
areas. TEMPOs and PROB30s remain for central NM terminals KABQ,
KAEG, KSAF and KLVS for potential direct or indirect impacts from
a passing storm. Conditions clear overnight and drier air
penetrating further into the forecast area will limit thunderstorm
coverage Sunday. In fact, no TAF terminal has a mention of shra or
ts for Sunday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
No critical fire weather conditions are expected over the next seven
days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward, are in
progress and should continue into the early evening. Drier air works
in Sunday through Tuesday, leading to fewer storms, most of which
will favor the southwest mountains. As temperatures increase,
relative humidity does fall to around 15 percent over the Northwest
Plateau on Sunday. However, 20-foot winds around only 10mph and ERC`s
around the 50th percentile preclude any elevated fire weather
conditions. A backdoor front arriving around next Thursday should
cool temperatures bit, as well as increase thunderstorm coverage
toward the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 62 93 61 94 / 5 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 49 88 47 90 / 10 0 0 5
Cuba............................ 57 87 57 88 / 30 5 5 10
Gallup.......................... 56 90 56 89 / 20 10 10 20
El Morro........................ 57 84 56 84 / 30 30 20 30
Grants.......................... 60 87 59 88 / 30 20 20 30
Quemado......................... 58 84 58 86 / 50 50 30 60
Magdalena....................... 62 87 63 89 / 40 40 20 30
Datil........................... 58 83 58 84 / 50 60 20 50
Reserve......................... 56 90 57 91 / 50 60 30 60
Glenwood........................ 67 94 67 95 / 50 60 30 60
Chama........................... 49 81 51 84 / 20 0 0 10
Los Alamos...................... 62 86 64 87 / 40 5 5 20
Pecos........................... 59 87 61 88 / 40 5 5 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 49 85 51 86 / 30 0 0 10
Red River....................... 48 76 49 78 / 40 0 0 20
Angel Fire...................... 44 80 44 82 / 20 0 0 10
Taos............................ 52 90 53 90 / 20 0 0 5
Mora............................ 53 85 55 87 / 20 5 0 10
Espanola........................ 60 95 61 95 / 30 0 0 5
Santa Fe........................ 61 89 64 90 / 50 5 5 10
Santa Fe Airport................ 60 92 61 93 / 40 5 0 5
Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 69 95 / 40 10 10 20
Albuquerque Heights............. 67 95 67 97 / 30 10 10 5
Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 97 66 98 / 30 10 10 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 96 68 97 / 30 10 10 5
Belen........................... 64 96 64 97 / 30 10 10 5
Bernalillo...................... 67 97 66 98 / 30 5 5 5
Bosque Farms.................... 64 96 64 98 / 30 10 10 5
Corrales........................ 67 97 67 98 / 30 10 10 5
Los Lunas....................... 66 96 65 98 / 30 10 10 5
Placitas........................ 65 93 66 94 / 30 5 5 10
Rio Rancho...................... 67 97 68 98 / 30 5 10 0
Socorro......................... 68 97 68 99 / 30 20 10 10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 87 62 89 / 30 10 5 10
Tijeras......................... 63 90 64 91 / 30 10 5 10
Edgewood........................ 59 90 59 92 / 30 10 5 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 92 56 93 / 40 5 5 10
Clines Corners.................. 57 88 59 90 / 30 5 0 10
Mountainair..................... 60 90 60 91 / 30 10 5 10
Gran Quivira.................... 60 90 61 91 / 30 20 10 20
Carrizozo....................... 66 94 66 94 / 30 20 10 20
Ruidoso......................... 60 84 61 86 / 20 40 10 30
Capulin......................... 56 89 59 89 / 20 5 0 5
Raton........................... 54 93 56 93 / 30 0 0 0
Springer........................ 55 94 56 94 / 20 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 55 90 57 90 / 40 5 0 10
Clayton......................... 65 97 67 99 / 10 5 0 0
Roy............................. 60 93 61 94 / 20 5 0 0
Conchas......................... 66 100 66 101 / 20 5 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 62 96 65 97 / 20 5 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 67 99 69 102 / 5 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 67 98 69 102 / 5 5 0 0
Portales........................ 67 98 69 102 / 5 5 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 67 99 69 102 / 10 5 0 0
Roswell......................... 71 101 73 104 / 5 5 5 0
Picacho......................... 65 95 66 96 / 10 20 5 5
Elk............................. 62 92 63 94 / 10 30 10 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1051 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat index values are forecast to be in the 80s to lower 90s
and the wet- bulb globe temperatures are mostly in the 70s to
lower 80s. At these levels, we remain in the level 1 to level
2 of 4 for heat risk; Minor to Moderate for heat sensitive
individuals.
- Shower/storm chances through Monday and again Wednesday and
Thursday. The potential for convective complexes with
lingering clouds and precipitation could affect the above
normal temperatures forecast. Severe weather potential appears
limited through Monday and will hinge on the details of the
convection later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Overview:
Latest water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning
showed closed low pressure over Saskatchewan and Manitoba with
southwest flow aloft from the West Coast through the Northern Plains
toward Ontario. The 500mb high pressure ridge centered over much of
the Great Lakes. A mesoscale convective complex was noted on the
periphery of the ridge over Ontario. A couple other areas with
convection were over parts of Arizona into the Rockies and with a
weak embedded shortwave trough over South Dakota. Closed low
pressure was over eastern Kansas/western Missouri. The KLSE VAD wind
profiler showed week warm advection through the saturated layer. The
early morning satellite images had some accas development with a few
spotty showers popping up per the WSR-88D radar.
By 19Z...convection had increased across northern Minnesota
with a shortwave trough and also across Missouri near the
closed low. Temperatures were in the 80s to around 90 with
dewpoints varying from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. SBCAPE per
the SPC mesographics were around 3000 J/kg with downdraft CAPE
1000-1200J/kg. The HRRR has been consistent on small chances for
an isolated shower or storm north of I90 or I94 around 00/01Z.
With the heating today if the pocket of moisture is real,
cannot rule out something isolated.
The pattern this week shows a ridge building to our west with
the heat and high temperatures in the 90s/100+ for the Rockies
and the Plains. Locally, we have a trough of 500mb low pressure
lifting northeast across parts of the Mississippi Valley Sunday
with a shortwave across the Northern Plains moving east Monday.
Heights build Tuesday with a ripple topping the ridge later
Tuesday night and Wednesday, yet another trough is forecast to
over the Northern Plains and to progress into the Upper
Mississippi Valley Thursday.
Heat and Humidity this Week:
Typical temperatures this time of year are mostly in the lower to
mid 80s. This past week, temperatures were generally below normal
in the 70s to around 80. The area of low pressure lifting northeast
for Sunday with clouds and precipitation chances will hold some
temperatures to the 70s and lower 80s across the southeast half of
the forecast area, otherwise, lower to mid 80s are forecast with
sticky dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s to mid 70s. The rest
of the week, at or above normal highs generally from 80 to 90
degrees are forecast. Temperatures will be highly dependent on
cloudcover and if there are convective complexes in the area.
Records this time of year are generally 98 to 105, so no
records are forecast. Dewpoints during the afternoon will
generally remain in the upper 60s to lower and mid 70s, so
pretty typical for late July and early August. Fortunately, for most
nights, lows drop into the 60s.
Heat index values are in the 80s to lower 90s and the wet-bulb globe
temperatures are mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. At these levels,
we remain in the level 1 to level 2 of 4 for heat risk; Minor
to Moderate for heat sensitive individuals.
Moisture transport is more prevalent to the northwest and southeast
of the forecast area tonight into Sunday, generally increasing
across the forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Precipitable
water values (PWAT) are around 1 to 1.5". Some drying is
forecast this evening, however 1.5 to 2"+ PWAT values advect
northward into eastern IA and southern WI Sunday. These high
PWATs shift east Sunday evening, however 2"+ PWATs increase from
the west overnight and continue through Monday. Cannot rule out
a spotty shower or thunderstorm into early evening north of I90
within a pocket of moisture/instability. The 27.00Z HRRR neural
net even had a low probability for hail/wind should a storm
develop, however the 06Z/12Z runs dropped this. Scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances increase with the upper level
trough drifting into the area Sunday/temps reaching convective
temps/MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg. We currently have 20-40% due to the
scattered nature and low confidence in how far northwest the
showers/storms will develop. The forcing is weak and some
capping is possible. The Hi-res cams show increased rain chances
over southwest WI into eastern IA and possibly southeast MN.
Deep layer shear remains low with MLCAPE of 2000-3000J/kg. The
area is in the general thunder area with the risk level 1/5 west
of the area across parts of MN/IA. The CSU machine learning
forecasts have some 5 to 15% wind probabilities for our western
counties. The movement of storms is only around 10 or 12kts with
1.5" of PWAT, thus cannot rules out isolated hail, gusty winds,
and heavy downpours of rain where storms form.
Showers/thunderstorms increase Sunday night from the southwest with
increasing moisture transport across Iowa and a shortwave drifting
southeast. The low level jet is progged to increase 40-50kts across
western Iowa and 30 to 40kts in a smaller area as it shifts east
into Monday. The warm cloud depth is nearly 4km with initially slow
storm movement, thus they could put down heavy rain. The storms
should favor the instability gradient. The trend is for the storms
to push north and east during the day with the shortwave trough
moving east during the day. The 24hr 27.12Z 10km neighborhood
probabilities for .5" or more are 30-70% for parts of Iowa with the
higher probabilities toward DBQ/Austin MN ending at 7am Monday. Deep
layer shear increases 30-40kts. We are currently in a risk level 1
of 5 for Monday and the CSU machine learning forecasts have some 5
to 15% severe probabilities for our entire area. This will be
something to keep up with depending on how the details pan out.
Unsure if any storms will linger Monday night is there is not good
agreement will trailing energy at this time.
The ridge builds in Tuesday with the next shortwave topping the
ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday. An MCC could be over parts of
the forecast area Wednesday morning. There are hints at another MCS
either Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. The CSU machine
learning forecasts have some 5 to 30% severe weather
probabilities for our area. There is not good agreement for
Thursday if the ridge will build in or we`ll be impacted by
convection.
While we are in more of a minimum for rainfall early in the
forecast, Tuesday night into Thursday we are more in the maximum
area. The 3hr flash flood guidance is mostly 2.25-3.5". Many areas
could use and inch or two of rainfall as the rainfall has been more
hit and miss the last two weeks.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, with
pockets of high MVFR ceilings southeast of LSE during the
daytime hours that may also include a few showers and
thunderstorms. Winds remain from the south around 10 kts
through the TAF period, slightly lower at night and higher
during the day.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Skow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
640 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20% chance or less of afternoon/early evening isolated storms
- Storm chances Sunday night/Monday with a low risk of severe
weather with hail and gusty winds the main threats
- Increasing heat, humidity, and resultant heat index values
into the middle of next week with heat headlines possible.
- Chances for showers and storms exist throughout next week, but
are most likely Wednesday evening into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Short Term /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
GOES-East clean IR imagery shows the spin of the shortwave over the
Kansas-Missouri border area with a plume of moisture from Mexico up
into eastern Missouri. This shortwave will lift up into Iowa and
some of that plume of moisture is/will be advected back northwest
and west on the north side of the shortwave. As was seen yesterday,
the more convective happy models such as the WRF-ARW, FV3, NAMNest,
and RRFS also show isolated pop up storms later this afternoon. Have
also noted this trend in the HRRR today as well so have once again
placed low PoPs over southern Iowa starting about mid-afternoon. As
in past days, these storms would pose locally heavy downpours, gusty
outflow winds, and lightning. While there remains quite the spread
in location, southern Iowa likely has the relatively highest chance
given proximity to the shortwave and moisture plume and hence why
PoPs have been focused in this area.
As the shortwave arrives tonight, a few storms may pass over our far
eastern forecast area from Davis up to Bremer county, but much of
the activity will be focused east of this area over eastern Iowa.
Otherwise, Sunday will have highs well into the 80s to near 90
degrees and dewpoints well into the 60s to lower half of the 70s.
Heat index values will be at most in the middle 90s. Attention
Sunday night turns upstream to a shortwave trough moving through the
Dakotas with low level thermal lift ahead of it paired with a
strengthening 850mb low level jet. These forcing mechanisms combined
with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg and modest deep layer shear will bring
the chance for a few severe storms. Hail and gusty winds may be
possible as the storms swing through late evening or after
midnight.
Long Term /Monday through Friday/...
Showers and storms late Sunday will move east of the area Monday
morning as the upper level shortwave and associated frontal boundary
moves east. The thermal ridge begins moving toward the east on
Monday with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Heat index
values may reach the low 90s north to mid 100s across the south. NWS
HeatRisk highlights a broad moderate risk of heat related impacts
across the CWA Monday. Those outdoors should plan ahead and take
necessary precautions to avoid heat related illnesses. By late
Monday, the upper level shortwave moves towards the Great Lakes
area. Showers and storms may be possible later Monday into Tuesday
but is highly dependent on how the Monday morning convection
evolves and what kind, if any, suppression of afternoon storms
occurs. The SPC currently outlines a marginal risk of severe
weather across portions of eastern Iowa at the moment.
The hot weather continues Tuesday and Wednesday as the thermal
ridge axis shifts farther east. HeatRisk output indicates
moderate to major heat related impacts across the CWA during
this period. Heat headlines will be possible next week,
particularly towards mid week. As noted in the discussion this
morning, a few waves may ride along the ridge during this
period, which could limit our temperatures with the associated
storms or cloud cover. Nonetheless, expect a few warm and muggy
days. Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning will see one of
these upper level waves advancing eastward into Iowa/Minnesota.
Chances for showers and storms are depicted by both the European
and GFS solutions across northern portions of the area, but
BUFKIT soundings reveal a rather deep warm layer aloft
associated with the advancing thermal trough. This warm layer
will most likely limit sfc based convection, but enough synoptic
lift appears present at this time which may lead to elevated
convection. CSU severe probabilities for Tuesday night into
Wednesday do highlight a 15% chance of severe weather across a
large swath of the CWA. Bulk shear and instability values for
this period are indicative of strong storms, but again, this
will be highly dependent on our temperatures aloft. Any storms
that form Wednesday morning will push off to the east during the
day.
By Wednesday evening, a stronger, more potent trough from
the west and associated sfc low will push east into the area.
The GFS has the upper level wave a bit faster into the area
Wednesday evening with convection forming along a frontal
boundary, while the ECMWF solution lags somewhat with convection
forming late Wednesday evening into Thursday. CSU severe
probabilities highlight another 15% chance across the area. With
the aforementioned thermal ridge still in the vicinity, expect
convection to be elevated and in the form of an MCS given the
prominent speed shear seen from BUFKIT soundings. However, given
differences in the speed and timing of the shortwave from the
deterministic models, details on specific hazards and location
are limited and will continue to be refined in the coming days.
Model solutions begin to diverge around Thursday evening with
the European solution showing the lagged trough deepening and
strengthening. The Canadian model also seems to agree with this
solution, while the GFS is indicative of a ridge. These
differing solutions late in the period lead to uncertainty in
PoPs late in the period. The good news is that temperatures seem
to lower to the mid 80s to near 90 late in the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
VFR conditions are anticipated through at least the evening with
mainly mid level cloudiness central and east. A system tracking
up the MS Valley into early Sunday may bring a period of
IFR/MVFR conditions Sunday morning however, mainly due to
ceilings versus visibility restrictions. Confidence in VFR
conditions increases again area wide later Sunday. There is some
potential for precip east as well, near KALO and KOTM, but the
confidence is not sufficient to mention at this lead time.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
534 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Shower and storm chances continue through the weekend, favoring
areas across western New Mexico with localized flash flooding and
gusty outflow winds as the primary threats. Mostly dry and
abnormally warm conditions continue for the Rio Grande Valley and
western Texas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Overall, no major changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages with daily afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm
chances, focusing over area along and west of the Continental Divide
and the Gila region.
Current water vapor satellite imagery overlayed with 500mb RAP
analysis shows high pressure aloft expanding and progressing towards
the east across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, highest PW
values of 1.0-1.3 inches occur generally along and west of the
Continental Divide, along with dew points in the upper 50s to low
60s. PW values of 0.9-1.1 inches areas east. The aforementioned high
pressure will circulate drier air in the mid to upper levels from
the west/northwest. This will help inhibit convective update
growth across the eastern 2/3s of the forecast area. Shower and
storm coverage will once again favor areas along and west of the
Divide and the Gila Region, with scattered thunderstorm activity
this afternoon/evening. Like previous days, the primary threats
will be gusty outflow winds and localized flash flooding. Isolated
coverage expected for areas along and east of the RGV. High
temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees across the desert lowlands. Upper high will be
overhead on Sunday will scattered mountains and isolated lowland
storm chances areawide. Temperatures on Sunday will be very
similar to today.
Upper high and ridge axis will shift further east across central and
eastern TX at the beginning of next week. The corresponding
monsoonal moisture corridor will respond, slowly shifting east
across NM. Fairly consistent weather pattern will setup with daily
afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances areawide,
scattered in the mountains and isolated in the lowlands. High
temperatures through the first half of the week will be in the upper
90s to low 100s across the lowlands, 100-103 for the El Paso metro.
By the end of next work week and into the weekend. Model and
ensemble guidance shows the upper level high reestablishing itself
of the Central Rockies. Above average warmth, along with general
monsoonal type storm activity can be expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
VFR conditions are expected through period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG SCT110-BKN250. There will be a couple of TS across
the Borderland, which will produce outflows that may cause the
winds across much of the terminals to become breezy (10 to 15
with gust up to 20 kts) especially at the KDNM and KTCS at least
until 03Z. The winds should subside thereafter. Also, TS may move
across the terminals (not mentioned in the TAFs). Should TS move
over the terminals mainly west of the Rio Grande, they could
produce +RA that could briefly reduce VSBY. Otherwise, there will
be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Fire weather concerns remain LOW through the period. Recent
monsoonal moisture surges and rainfall have helped, as ERC values
below 50th percentile at most sites. Weather wise, scattered shower
and storm chances remain in the forecast through weekend with the
focus and better coverage for areas along and west of the Divide and
Gila Region. Gusty outflow winds, lightning, and wetting rains will
be the primary impacts.
Temperatures through the period will continue running above the
seasonal average with Min RH values each in the 25-40 percent range
of the high terrain and 20-30 percent range over the lowlands. Winds
will be light and generally diurnal/terrain driven in terms of
direction.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 76 101 77 103 / 40 20 30 10
Sierra Blanca 67 92 68 95 / 20 30 30 10
Las Cruces 72 100 72 100 / 40 20 40 10
Alamogordo 69 97 71 98 / 20 20 10 10
Cloudcroft 54 74 54 76 / 20 50 20 40
Truth or Consequences 70 96 71 97 / 50 30 20 20
Silver City 63 89 64 90 / 50 70 30 60
Deming 69 98 71 98 / 40 30 40 10
Lordsburg 69 95 69 96 / 70 50 40 40
West El Paso Metro 75 98 75 100 / 40 20 40 10
Dell City 70 98 71 101 / 10 20 10 10
Fort Hancock 71 100 72 102 / 40 30 40 10
Loma Linda 67 91 69 93 / 30 30 30 10
Fabens 73 98 74 100 / 40 30 40 10
Santa Teresa 72 97 73 98 / 50 20 50 10
White Sands HQ 74 97 74 99 / 40 30 30 10
Jornada Range 70 97 71 98 / 40 30 30 10
Hatch 70 100 71 101 / 50 30 30 20
Columbus 72 97 73 98 / 50 30 50 10
Orogrande 70 96 71 98 / 20 20 20 10
Mayhill 59 85 59 87 / 20 50 10 30
Mescalero 58 86 59 87 / 20 50 10 30
Timberon 57 83 57 86 / 20 40 20 20
Winston 59 87 58 88 / 50 70 20 40
Hillsboro 67 94 68 95 / 60 50 40 30
Spaceport 67 97 68 98 / 40 30 20 20
Lake Roberts 60 88 59 90 / 50 80 40 60
Hurley 65 92 64 93 / 50 60 30 40
Cliff 64 98 64 100 / 40 60 30 50
Mule Creek 65 91 66 92 / 50 60 30 50
Faywood 66 92 66 93 / 40 50 40 40
Animas 69 95 69 95 / 70 60 50 50
Hachita 67 95 69 95 / 80 40 50 30
Antelope Wells 67 92 68 93 / 60 60 60 50
Cloverdale 64 87 64 87 / 50 70 60 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...36-Texeira
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
353 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A prolonged period of much above normal temperatures over 100
degrees are forecast Sunday through Thursday. Heat index
values of 100 to 105 degrees are anticipated Sunday and Monday
with 100 to 110 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Scattered storms developing along the I-25 corridor this aft
will track slowly east toward the KS border late this aft-
eve. Brief, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible in
assoc/w any storms, mainly in northeast CO and adjacent KS-NE
border areas between 6-10 pm MDT.
- Scattered storms *may* develop over portions of northwest KS
and southwest NE Sunday afternoon. An isolated severe storm
capable of producing quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65
mph is possible, mainly between 3-8 pm MDT / 4-9 pm CDT. Low
confidence w/regard to whether or not storms will develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Today-Tonight: A lingering upper level ridge over the High
Plains will further erode today as modest cyclonic flow aloft
envelopes the central Rockies. Such a flow regime is relatively
more supportive of [1] diurnal lee cyclone development and [2]
scattered convective development in climatologically/
topographically favored areas. Expect temperatures similar to
yesterday. Current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST
suggest that scattered convection developing along the Colorado
Front Range /I-25 corridor/ this afternoon will slowly track
east (via weak W to SW steering flow) toward northern portions
of the CO-KS border late this afternoon, potentially affecting
Yuma-Cheyenne-Dundy counties this evening (~01-06 UTC time
frame). In a setup characterized by weak synoptic forcing..
marginal high-based instability (500-1000 J/kg mlcape).. weak
low-level/mid-level flow and effective deep layer shear < ~25
knots.. organized convection is not anticipated. The presence of
seasonably strong (1300-1600 J/kg) DCAPE suggests that brief,
localized severe downbursts are possible in assoc/w *any* high-
based convection capable of producing lightning. Expect
convective potential to decrease precipitously with eastern
extent from the CO-KS border this evening.. where steering flow
further weakens, convective inhibition will be increasing
(after sunset) and lingering subsidence on the western
periphery of a stalled upper level /300 mb/ low (centered invof
the eastern KS-OK border) will tend to suppress development.
Sun-Sun night: Modest unidirectional /westerly/ flow will
envelope the region (in the wake of the recently eroded ridge)
on Sunday.. advecting a pristine elevated mixed layer eastward
from the Rockies into the High Plains. Profoundly deep vertical
mixing (from the surface to 500 mb) will foster the development
of a considerable dewpoint gradient /dryline/ over portions of
the area Sunday afternoon.. where surface dewpoints may range
from the lower 60s (invof Hwy 283) to the teens and 20s
(eastern CO). Current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST
vary considerably with regard to low-level moisture distribution
over the Tri-State area -- and whether or not isolated
convection may develop -- suggesting that convective
development may highly depend upon specific aspects of the
mesoscale pattern. With the above in mind, expect a conditional
potential for isolated severe storms capable of producing
damaging winds and/or large hail.. mainly along/east of Hwy 83
and along/north of I-70 in the 21-02 UTC time frame.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
The long term period continues to be forecast to be hot and
relatively dry.
The beginning part of the work week continues to have an upper
ridge forecast to move over the Plains and amplify. With
forecast 850mb temps in the mid 30`s C, high temperatures
continue to be forecast in the 100`s. Mid to upper 100`s are
looking likely Tues and potentially Wed. Heat index values
continue to be forecast around the mid 100`s for Tues and Wed,
so a Heat Advisory for counties generally along and east of
Highway 83 may be needed in the coming days. Otherwise, not much
concern for storms with the broad subsidence over the area.
Fire Weather concerns for the beginning of the weak are also
low. In spite of the dry RHs forecast for the western half of
the area, the overall weak flow will be unlikely to have winds
or wind gusts exceed 25 mph.
For the mid part of the week, guidance continues to suggest a
low amplitude trough will move across the Northern Plains from
the Northwest CONUS. This would temporarily deamplify the trough
and allow for slightly cooler temperatures in the 90`s and low
100`s. The area would also have some chances for afternoon and
evening storms in northwest flow aloft. Will need to watch for
critical fire weather as the increase in gradients and flow may
allow winds to increase towards 25 mph or greater. Wednesday
looks to have the greatest chance depending on how quickly the
trough moves through.
For the end of the week, the ridge is forecast to reamplify
over the Western CONUS and shift into the Plains again. There
are a couple of ensemble members that try to swing a trough
through the Great Lakes region or quick eject another trough
from the northwest. However, neither of these cases seem to be
strong signals, so am favoring a fairly quick warm up back into
the 100`s. The heat will likely continue.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Some shower potential from 01z-05z Sunday, but low confidence
on impact to the terminal, so will have a tempo group. Winds,
south around 10-20kts through 05z, then turning east around
10kts. By 11z, becoming west-northwest around 10-15kts. From
01z-05z, if showers do occur, outflow could create some brief
gusts into the 25-35kt range.
For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period at
this time. Low confidence of late shower activity impacting the
terminal around 08z Sunday, so will leave out for now and
update as needed or with next forecast issuance. Winds, south-
southeast 10-20kts through 08z then becoming light/variable. By
19z, southeast 5-10kts. Will monitor for potential haze
development as winds go light. Currently any reduction will
stay west of terminal.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024
July 29 High Temperature Records (F):
Goodland......104 in 1947
McCook........109 in 1947
Burlington....100 in 2012
Hill City.....108 in 1917
July 30 High Temperature Records (F):
Goodland......106 in 1935
McCook........105 in 2002
Burlington....101 in 2012
Hill City.....109 in 1976
July 31 High Temperature Records (F):
Goodland......105 in 2002
McCook........107 in 2002
Burlington....102 in 2002
Hill City.....113 in 1934
Goodland has the potential for 5 consecutive days of highs of
100+ degrees which would tie it for the 14th longest on record.
Last time this happened was July of 2012.
McCook is also currently forecasted at 5 consecutive days of
100+ degree temperatures which would tie it for 20th all time.
However a few days of overachieving temperatures could put them
in the top 6 all time.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
953 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic showers Sunday
- Increasing threat for multiple storm clusters to impact the region
next week
- Heavy rainfall/flooding and some severe potential with storms
next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Our forecast is on track tonight and no changes are needed as of
right now. Satellite and radar imagery show increasing clouds and
showers developing across Illinois. High-res guidance slowly
propagates this activity eastward until it reaches central parts of
our CWA around 12-15z. Cloud cover and PoP grids look reasonable
given current trends in these data.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
HRRR smoke model shows a residual signal from smoke that was shifted
down to our latitude by the departing trough. Its magnitude is
decreasing in the model and it`s difficult to see in the satellite
data now, so its sensible impacts will be minimal. Most of the fresh
smoke is being shunted well north of our area within the polar jet
westerlies. Nevertheless, a slight hazy look to the sky may be seen,
especially around sunset. Similar to last evening, the sunlight may
be muted slightly on the western horizon this evening with light
scattering resulting in a redish tint to the setting sun. Otherwise,
we don`t expect impacts from residual smoke.
What may obscure the sunset relative to yesterday is a thickening
cirrus shield as high-level moisture plume arrives. Cirrus within
amplifying but weakening subtropical jet is spreading northeastward,
but the more pronounced IVT signal with deeper tropospheric moisture
surge comes tonight per model prognostics. It isn`t until the
predawn hours that richer lower tropospheric moisture arrives, but
per dynamic tropopause/PV progs, the forcing lags. These summertime
upper troughs often have poor midlevel lapse rates and can support a
deep tropospheric moisture plume. Thus, efficient rainfall and
limited convective intensity are usually favored.
Given the moisture profile, if the forecast were to trend one way or
another for tomorrow it would probably be wetter and cooler with
periodic showers. Wetter from greater coverage of showers and some
possible augmentation by a deep warm cloud layer and shallower
convective process to which a blended model forecast process may
under-represent. Cooler from diabatic effects of precipitation that
again may be somewhat under-represented if precipitation coverage
actually does end up greater.
We would go with even higher precipitation probabilities tomorrow if
the deep moist warm conveyor belt were better aligned with the
synoptic-scale forcing, but we feel 70-80 percent probabilities best
fit this situation. Precision with timing of what may be a few waves
of showers still is somewhat unclear. It appears the initial warm
advection-driven northwest-southeast band of showers will move in
during the morning, with synoptic scale ascent increasing during the
afternoon and pairing with diurnal destabilization to increase
shower coverage through the afternoon. Will limit thunder
probabilities somewhat to de-emphasize wording in the public
forecast, focusing on showers. This is due to the poor midlevel
lapse rates which should limit significant/intense convection.
However, some deeper convection with lightning and heavy rainfall
rates will occur and HREF QPF max has some spotty high amounts as a
result. So, we will need to watch for localized flooding, even
though it`s a low probability.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Refer to the overnight shift`s discussion below. The only addition
points to make from new model data are:
1. While the most intense convection may tend to upshear propagate
Monday night, confidence is a bit higher in at a least remnant
convective cluster reaching portions of central Indiana. We`ll need
to watch its placement closely for a potential heavy rain/flooding
scenario, but this looks more likely in Illinois.
2. Tuesday-Wednesday could be a relative lull with upward-trending
500-mb heights. But, we do have a seasonally swift midlevel flow and
plenty of moisture/instability as steeper lapse rate plume moves in,
so MCS maintenance from any upstream activity would be our main
impetus, and worthy of low-mid range precipitation probabilities
still.
3. Ensembles are a little more stratified but still have some chaos
Thursday-Friday. This does appear to be the period of the long term
that has the greatest potential for synoptic-scale forcing helping
with organized convection potential, but timing remains unclear for
now.
4. Upper flow trajectories may be a little more favorable for
western wildfire smoke to impact us next week.
--previous discussion--
Long term guidance has shifted slightly, with a further south and
weaker upper level ridge early in the period before the ridge pushes
back west and amplifies late in the week. The upshot of this is that
already fairly omnipresent convective chances this week are
increased somewhat, particularly early in the week, as multiple
upper level disturbances rounding the upper level ridge are likely
to impinge upon the area, providing multiple opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms.
Chances decrease a bit later in the week, at least partially as a
result of greater model spread and uncertainty with respect to the
influences of prior rounds of convection on the later mesoscale
environmental setups.
Precipitable water values frequently at or in excess of 1.7-2.0"
this week are expected, along with seasonably high wet bulb zero
heights, suggesting high precipitation efficiency and strong
rainfall rates with any convection, and thus hydrologic concerns
will be top of mind this week.
One or more rounds of severe storms will be possible as well through
the work week, though given the instability/cold pool driven nature
of this convection, predictability expectedly wanes fairly quickly
with time, though experimental machine learning guidance continues
to suggest broad areas of at least low severe threat daily through
the week. Damaging winds would be the primary concern with
convection this week.
Temperatures are generally expected to warm from near to slightly
below normal to near to slightly above normal by mid week, though
NBM spread is significant, likely owing to the convective
uncertainty, which could present a major failure mode to hotter high
temperature forecasts as the week wears on.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Impacts:
- Rain showers with associated MVFR conditions possible after 12z.
- Embedded thunderstorms increasingly likely during the afternoon
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through at least daybreak Sunday.
Mid-level ceilings slowly drop through the night, especially after
06z as deeper moisture arrives.
MVFR conditions are possible once precipitation begins to enter into
the area. The best chance for showers looks to be from about 12z
onward, give or take an hour or two. On and off showers should
continue through the TAF period. Thunderstorms become increasingly
likely as the afternoon progresses, and these will also be scattered
in nature.
Winds should retain a southeasterly component tonight, possibly
going light and variable in a few places. Speeds increase after
daybreak and direction becomes more southerly with time.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...BRB/Nield
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and the
primary hazards are wind damage and large hail.
- Isolated severe storms are also possible Sunday afternoon and
evening and the primary hazards are wind damage and large
hail. Winds aloft will increase and become strong. There is
some concern significant wind or hail damage may develop.
- Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest of the next 7 days
with forecast highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
At 3pm CDT, skies remained mostly sunny. Cumulus has developed
across portions of Sheridan and northwest Cherry County, which
will be an early focus area for isolated storm development.
Temperatures ranged from 87 at Broken Bow to 95 at Valentine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
A weak surface trough across the Nebraska panhandle and far
northwest Sandhills will be the focus for isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon and
tonight. Effective bulk shear increases to 30kts by early
evening. Strong afternoon heating and a weak disturbance exiting
sern Wy and nctrl CO will move through this evening. Surface
Theta-E advection is in place across the panhandle and will
increase by early evening into the western Sandhills. The latest
convective allowing models shows scattered coverage across the
eastern panhandle at 00Z to move east and decrease in coverage
and weak by 05Z near Highway 83.
SPC is forecasting a Marginal Risk for isolated severe wind and
hail threat for areas mainly near and west of Highway 83. Given
downdraft CAPEs up to 800 J/kg, wind would seem to be the
primary concern followed by marginally hail.
After midnight, a slight chance for showers and storms across
the east. Lows from 60 to 65 western Sandhills, to the upper 60s
to near 70 east, where southerly winds will keep the surface
mixed.
On Sunday, the upper ridge will flatten out across the Central
Plains. Surface low pressure will deepen across the region,
with two separate lows developing. One will be across southwest
into south central SD, the second across swrn NE into nwrn KS.
A dryline will exist just west of Highway 83. By peak heating,
isolated to scattered storms development is supported. Deep
layer shear will be near 35kts and moisture will continue to
pool with PWAT increasing to 1.25 to 1.33 inches east of highway
83. The 700mb cap will likely be broken late in the afternoon
around 21z or so. Model consensus is for storms to initiate near
and west of Highway 83 over the central Sandhills and track
southeast into a few storm clusters by late afternoon and early
evening. The 12z HRRR indicated a couple of storms with 70 mph
gusts across portions of Custer County into south central
Nebraska. A severe hail threat will also accompany a few of the
storms. POPs are 30 percent for this event due to model
differences on location.
SPC is forecasting a Slight Risk for areas near and east of
Highway 83.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
The upper ridge will rebuild into the region Monday and Tuesday,
before an upper trough moves into the Northern Plains on
Wednesday. Expect temperatures to reach near 100 across
southwest Nebraska on Monday with many locations reaching or
exceeding 100 degrees on Tuesday. A weak front could move in
Wednesday, through medium range models differ. The southwest is
likely to again surpass 100 degrees with mid to upper 90s
elsewhere. Thursday into Friday, the upper ridge will become
centered over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though
little relief from the heat as highs still in the 90s. There is
a slight chance for storms Thursday and Friday evenings.
However, most days will remain dry, with little or no rainfall
expected.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Currently, scattered thunderstorms developing in the Panhandle
and northwest Sandhills are merging into clusters or a line.
Coverage will continue to increase as the activity pushes
eastward, impacting both LBF and VTN in the next 2 to 4 hours.
These storms will bring the threat for brief MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic winds. Will rely heavily on radar and satellite
trends should amendments be needed as storms progress eastward.
Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain gusty
from the south with gusts of 20 to 30 kts persisting. Winds
subside some overnight after the thunderstorm activity exits
eastward, generally 15 kts or less.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Viken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
117 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Look for isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across mainly White Pine and eastern Elko counties
through the early evening hours. Main threats will be wind gusts
to 50 mph and small hail. For tomorrow, drier air will continue
its eastward trek with quiet conditions over the area. Breezy
west to southwest winds with gusts of 15 to 25 mph over most of
the region Sunday afternoon and early evening. Smoke from
California wildfires will continue to impact northern and central
Nevada over the coming days with periods of both reduced
visibility and air quality likely. High pressure will build in
from the east, bringing gradually warming temperatures and quiet
conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Current radar is
showing isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing across portions of eastern and northeastern Nevada at
this time. Favorable CAPE and shear will allow stronger storms to
form especially across northeastern Nevada with wind gusts to 60
mph. These storms will continue into the early evening hours
before dissipating. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear though
smoke from nearby wildfires will cause obscuration and lowered
visibility across northern and central Nevada. Lows will be in
the 40s and 50s.
By Sunday and Sunday night, southwest flow aloft will continue
across northern and central Nevada, further drying out the air
mass. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts to 20
mph. Smoke and haze from nearby wildfires will continue to hamper
visibility across the area. Highs will generally be in the 80s to
90s. Look for generally clear conditions, save for smoke and haze,
for the overnight with lows in the 40s and 50s.
.LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday.
Potential smoke impacts and slowly rising high temperatures are
the main weather concerns for this long term forecast period.
Model runs show southwest flow over the Silver State on the
upstream flow of an amplifying ridge building into the the Four
Corners/southern Plains regions. As the upper level trough over
the northern Rockies pushes further east into the northern Plains
by mid-week the ridge to the south slides westward and amplifies
back into the western CONUS. By Friday the associated strong high
pressure center is located over the Four Corners region allowing
for the possibility of weekend monsoonal moisture.
Speaking of moisture, it will be hard to come by this week as SW
flow over the region keeps the area scoured out and relative
humidity values low. Temperatures will steadily increase this
week, slowly at first with high temperatures Monday and Tuesday
ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s. The big changeover to hot
afternoon highs occurs Wednesday into Thursday with afternoon
temps on Thursday topping out in the upper 90s to even low 100s in
some locations. By Friday, heat risk becomes a factor for
locations in northern portions of the CWA as hot temps persist
into the weekend. Some subtropical moisture will begin moving
northward and as a result, low end PoPs continue for Friday. With
high temperatures reaching the upper 90s to low 100s, these storms
could initially be dry and will bear watching.
What remains to be seen is the impact of continued smoke
dispersion from large wildfires in northern California. Currently,
smoke is inhibiting visibility across northern Nevada with HRRR
model runs suggesting an increase in smoke coverage overnight
tonight and into Sunday. This may persist into the coming work
week and if so, attention will need to be directed towards
potential forecast impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions exist for southern terminals within
the watch area until tomorrow morning. Temporary MVFR and
potentially IFR conditions resulting from CA wildfire smoke for
KWMC/KBAM/KEKO through today, tonight and tomorrow morning. By 12z
models suggest more widespread coverage of smoke including KELY in
the area prone to lower VIS/CIGs. Isolated -TSRA will be confined
to portions of northeastern and east- central Nevada later this
afternoon and evening though any storms that do build will
diminish after sunset. Wind speeds will be SW-W10-15G30KT over all
terminals, though convective wind gusts to 35KT are possible with
any storm.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue across the eastern portions of the
forecast area through this early evening. The main threat from
storms will be gusty and erratic winds to 50 mph. Smoke and haze
from neighboring wildfires will hamper visibility for the next
several days. For tomorrow, southwest flow aloft will continue the
drying trend with all areas seeing mostly sunny conditions though
smoke will block out the sun at times. Look for elevated fire
weather conditions across zone 425 on Monday as wind gusts will
approach 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidity values in the
single digits to low teens. By Tuesday, look for a warming trend
lasting through the work week as the upper ridge moves east.
Friday may see moisture moving northward as the ridge sets up shop
near the four-corners. Storms on Friday will generally be dry
across zone 425 and 470.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
86/99/99/86
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
It still remains somewhat unclear regarding the convective forecast
for the remainder of the afternoon. The RAP seemed to have the best
handle on the early morning convection, so that model was generally
favored for the rest of this forecast. A glance at the upper levels
of the atmosphere would suggest a nil convective forecast. A closed
low at 250mb was slowly moving away from the region resulting in
rising heights aloft and subsidence at the upper levels of the
atmosphere. However, a short wave trough was noted at 700 and 500mb
moving very slowly out of the central-southern Rockies. Overall, the
forcing will be weak so it becomes difficult to rely on model QPF
forecasts as it will change from run to run. Continued heating for
the rest of the afternoon will further erode the already weak cap.
Mixed layer instability values will top out around 1000-1500 J/kg by
late this afternoon. And although the cap is not forecast to fully
erode in the deeply mixed layer, it becomes weak enough to possibly
allow convection. A low level theta-e axis is present extending from
the Big Country northward into the eastern Texas Panhandle where
convection is most favored. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will
support strong wind gusts with any storms that do develop but
widespread severe is not anticipated.
Storms are not expected to persist into the early morning hours on
Sunday like what we saw earlier this morning. Rising heights from
the upper ridge shifting eastward will keep convective chances low
on Sunday. A strengthening surface cyclone in eastern Colorado will
boost the surface pressure gradient and increase southerly winds.
These winds will have more of a downslope component on Sunday
afternoon compared to today. This will also result in an increase in
temperatures to around five degrees above seasonal averages or so
but shy of heat advisory criteria.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Heat is the main theme through the extended. Mid-level ridging is on
track to build squarely over the region by Monday, then linger
overhead through midweek as heights climb to 594 to 596 decameters.
Thereafter, the center of the ridge will reamplify over the
Intermountain West late week into next weekend. Although mid-level
heights won`t change much locally despite the reorientation of the
ridge, it will allow some monsoonal moisture to bend eastward a bit.
The improved mid-level moisture, in conjuction with convergence
along a surface trough, could allow low thunder chances to return to
parts of the South Plain region as soon late Wednesday, though more
likely not until Thursday and beyond. At this point, our
northwestern zones (the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest
South Plains) appear most favored for isolated convection late in
the week.
Regarding temperatures, triple digit highs are expected to prevail
for most locations through this coming week, with spots off the
Caprock potentially reaching advisory levels (105-109 degrees) at
times. Temperatures should back off a few degrees toward the end of
the extended, though will probably remain above average (i.e.
hot).
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all three
terminals. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is located south
of the CDS terminal and east of the LBB and PVW terminals as of
630 pm CDT/2330 UTC and is on track to remain outside of the
three terminals airspace. There is a low chance of redevelopment
at CDS but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot, humid, and breezy through this afternoon, with heat indices
in the 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for the
second portion of Sunday and will continue into the first half
Monday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible, mainly
across western Minnesota.
- Unsettled Summer pattern will bring the next chances for rain
and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Regional radar depicts a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving
through northeastern South Dakota. This cluster has developed along
a stationary frontal boundary and is forecast to continue lifting to
the northeast, following the mean wind into northeastern Minnesota.
Extrapolation of this complex keeps the track northwest of Stevens,
Douglas, and Todd counties this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed
into the upper 80s/low 90s across much of south central Minnesota
and western Wisconsin at this hour. The hot air temperatures
combined with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s has produced heat
indices in the 90s. Southerly flow has increased over the past few
hours, with gusts between 20-25 mph now a common theme over much of
south central Minnesota. The winds are forecast to remain breezy
into this evening, which will continue to help make the heat and
humidity feel a little less uncomfortable.
Sunday will be very warm and humid, though air temperatures will
finish about 3-5 degrees cooler than today. Despite the slight dip
in the air temperatures, dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s will
once again push heat indices into the low 90s. Turning attention to
convective potential, much of the theme remains the same. CAMs are
not overlay excited with the prospect of nocturnal convection across
the Dakotas holding together into much of western MN, so we have
trimmed slight chance PoPs quite a bit across the far western tier
of counties through mid-morning Sunday. A surface low is forecast to
move out east out of the Dakotas Sunday evening into Monday morning,
which will serve as the main driver for widespread convection during
that timeframe. A few of the CAMs try to initiate cells across
western Minnesota Sunday morning/early afternoon. Should any of
these cells develop, they would likely produce a brief period of
locally heavy rain and perhaps an isolated strong wind gust, however
weak shear will limit the severe potential during that timeframe.
While there are differences among the CAMs with respect to timing,
location, and even storm mode (clusters of storms versus a more
organized complex), the trend remains that the second half of Sunday
into Monday morning will serve as the period of the most widespread
PoPs. Our latest forecast features 60-80% PoPs across west central
Minnesota by late afternoon/early evening, which then shift east
into the late evening. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe
weather across south central Minnesota tomorrow, with just a sliver
of far western Minnesota included in the Level 2 Slight Risk. Storms
that develop ahead of the surface low across the Dakotas may become
severe Sunday afternoon and will then track east into Minnesota,
where a less favorable environment for the maintenance of storm
intensity supports the lower severe probabilities at this time.
Still, isolated to scattered instances of damaging wind and small
hail will be possible, with a greater focus on the threat for
locally heavy rain persisting well into the overnight hours. As
noted by the previous shift, a southerly shift in the QPF axis has
again been reflected in the 12z HREF suite. A widespread soaking 0.5-
1 inch of rain appears likely, with convectively driven amounts (and
perhaps some training of storms) upwards of 2"+. Should storms train
over the same location for multiple hours, a localized flash flood
threat may develop.
Showers and thunderstorms will drift east into western Wisconsin by
early Monday morning, where renewed convection will be possible as a
result of daytime heating. High pressure will build back in
following the eastward departure of the surface front Monday
afternoon, with the expectation that dry weather will then persist
through Tuesday. Humidity sticks around through mid-week and highs
will climb towards 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
Guidance remains steady with additional convective chances by
Wednesday and Thursday, as a few shortwaves ride along the northern
periphery of a 590s dm Great Plains ridge. As noted by the overnight
shift, the extended period appears increasingly uncertain, with the
potential for more Great Lakes troughing/northwest flow into the
Upper Midwest through the first period of August. Should this be the
case, we may dodge yet another prolonged run of heat. NBM captures
this with highs in the low to mid 80s by the end of next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
A few high clouds are expected tonight into Sunday morning.
However, prevailing clouds should build in and lower to near
10000 feet from west to east Sunday afternoon as our next system
approaches. Chances for -TSRA begin in western MN by early
afternoon and spread east into eastern MN by early evening.
Thus, have added PROB30s for -TSRA at most MN terminals with
MVFR conditions possible. RAP forecast soundings and a few CAMs
do show signals of elevated convection over western and central
MN Sunday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include
in the TAF at this time. Southerly winds will hang around 10
knots with gusts to near 20 knots possible.
KMSP...Included PROB30s for -TSRA as early as 21Z Sunday
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will increase thru Sunday
evening, but confidence of exactly when storms will occur is too
low at this time to go any higher than PROB30.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Chc -TSRA early. Wind S then NW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...CTG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Expecting heating this afternoon to erode a weak cap across
southeast Oklahoma resulting in a potential of an isolated
thunderstorm or two only impacting a few counties in our far
southeastern CWA. Abundant surface moisture remains in place while
instability off the surface may be sufficient for short-lived pulse
type convection although shear remains very weak for any cells to
organize or become severe. Any convection that does develop late
this afternoon across our southeast would be diurnally heat driven
ending shortly after sundown. Meanwhile after sundown to our west,
a mid-level shortwave embedded in the ridge over the Southwestern
U.S. may be interacting with a surface trough just lee of the
Colorado Rockies. Expecting a southerly low-level jet to fire up
tonight across the Southern High Plains potentially transporting
moisture into the mid-levels although confidence is low based on
model inconsistencies if it will be sufficient to fuel convection on
the Southern High Plains. Both NAM & ECMWF suggesting ample
isentropic ascent of moisture on the 315 K surface through the mid-
levels just east of the low-level jet across parts of our western
CWA. Although latest HRRR & NBM not very excited about convection
breaking out, a few other CAMs (mainly NAM Nest & HRW FV3) are
suggesting it. As a result, will maintain 20% storm POPs across the
western two-tier of counties in western Oklahoma and adjacent
western north Texas for late this evening into early Sunday morning.
Any storms that would develop tonight across our west would be
elevated and with weak MUCAPE values would be below severe.
For Sunday, a surface low over the Central High Plains will increase
our south winds becoming windy by late morning across much of our
western CWA to breezy across our remainder. Western Oklahoma and
western north Texas could see afternoon gusts at 20-30 mph. Pressure
heights start to rise as the upper ridge across our west starts
building starting our "heating" trend a day earlier. Afternoon
temperatures generally west of I-35 are expected to peak to or near
triple digits (100-101 degrees) while to the east may heat to more
seasonably normal (mid 90s). Fortunately surface moisture across
our western CWA is slightly weaker (lower to mid 60s dewpoints)
verses our eastern CWA while any moisture advection will be weak As
a result, not expecting much of a heat index to impact our western
CWA for tomorrow. One caveat for tomorrows temperatures as it is
based on clear skies in the afternoon. Although could see some mid-
level cloud cover during the morning hours, should it linger into
the afternoon it could keep temperatures down.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
An upper ridge continues to build over the Southern High Plains as
we get hotter with breezy south winds. Will see triple digit highs
increase across our western and northern CWA on Monday with highs up
to 105 degrees to upper 90s across central through southeast
Oklahoma. Have fairly good confidence with the NBM surface moisture
for at least Monday as its in fairly good agreement with the NAM &
ECMWF, while the GFS is too dry biased. As a result, could see
widespread heat indices between 105-110 degrees on Monday afternoon
so can`t rule out at least a Heat Advisory across much of our area.
However, NBM becomes hotter-biased from Tuesday on and perhaps too
moist-biased with the surface moisture/dewpoints across the eastern
half of our CWA on Tuesday. For the warm-biased highs, have trended
with the slightly cooler NBM 50% percentile high temperatures. Still
unseasonably hot with the current forecast for next week with heat
indices in the 105-110 degree range but not confident of any seeing
any excessive heating at this point. We stay under this heat dome
through next weekend as the upper ridge builds nearly over at least
the western 2/3 of the country. Only a remote chance for rain/storm
late Wednesday along the northern fringe of our CWA. A shortwave in
the mid-levels embedded in the ridge could result in storms across
the Central Plains to near the Kansas/Oklahoma border on Wednesday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Some elevated showers and storms not out of the question overnight
into Sunday morning across parts of central into northern
Oklahoma, but currently chances remain too low to mention in the
TAFs. Otherwise, most sites will remain VFR overnight and through
the day tomorrow. Exception may be DUA where a period of MVFR
ceilings appears possible late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds
remain a bit stronger tonight and become quite breezy Sunday with
gusts around 25kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 72 95 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 72 99 76 102 / 20 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 73 99 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 71 100 75 106 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 71 97 76 102 / 10 20 0 0
Durant OK 71 95 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows an approaching H5
shortwave trough currently situated over NRN Nevada with radar
showing isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms continuing
across extreme SE Idaho. As this trough moves into SRN Idaho later
today tapping into some monsoon moisture from the Great Basin,
scattered thunderstorms remain favored to develop with the HREF
model probability of thunder showing a 30-80% chance of thunder
across our entire region. The convective environment today will
support 500-800 J/kg of SBCAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE, 20-35 kts
of 0-6 km shear, and 7-9 degree/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. This
environment will remain conducive for stronger storms that will be
capable of producing wind gusts to 40-60 mph, heavy rain, and
small hail. Given PWATs in that 0.50-0.80" range, we will also see
a mix of wet and dry storms given a drier airmass in place at the
surface. Activity will decrease after sunset tonight but cannot
rule out continued isolated showers and storms overnight in the
mountains, primarily in the CNTRL Mountains. Highs today will be
in the 70s and 80s, seasonably cool for late July.
For Sunday, that aforementioned H5 shortwave trough will continue
its progression NE into Montana and Wyoming supporting another
round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances for this activity will shift to being across the Upper
Snake Plain and along the Montana and Wyoming border regions as
conditions remain predominantly dry elsewhere. Highs on Sunday
will remain very similar to Saturday in the 70s and 80s.
Wildfire smoke will continue to impact air quality and visibility
at times through the weekend with the HRRR smoke and satellite
imagery this afternoon showing improving conditions across ERN
Idaho. This improvement looks to be short-lived however as more
wildfire smoke builds back in tonight into Sunday associated with
several large wildfires to our west. MacKay
.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.
Expect breezy southwest flow aloft to continue on Monday bringing
afternoon gusty conditions. No showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Monday. Temperatures look to rise slightly above
normal on Monday. Tuesday into Wednesday models show a weak wave
move through the area bringing breezy winds and mostly isolated
thunderstorms. Temperatures look to drop down to normal to
slightly below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Late Wednesday into Saturday high pressure builds back into the
area. Expect a heat wave with dry and hot conditions Thursday,
Friday, and Saturday. There is high confidence of heat with model
clusters lining up well. Plus, the ECMWF model Extreme Forecast
Index (EFI) has values of 0.7 to 0.8 showing moderate to high
confidence of heat returning as well. Temperatures will gradually
get warmer each day and will run 6 to 10 degrees above normal with
lower elevations in the mid to upper 90s. A few areas may hit 100
degrees on Friday with more lower elevations likely hitting 100
degrees by Saturday. Wyatt
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday.
This afternoon expect thunderstorm impacts for all sites with a
trough moving through southwest flow aloft. Gusty outflow winds of
around up to 35 to 50 mph are likely with thunderstorm passage by
2 pm for Burley and 3 to 4 pm for PIH and 4 to 5 pm for IDA and 6
to 7 pm for KDIJ. Gusts up to 60 mph are possible, especially for
KBYI. Thunderstorms on station will likely bring brief MVFR/VFR
conditions. Visibility will be slightly degraded for KBYI and KSUN
early this afternoon and will improve with showers and
thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon. The HRRR smoke model shows
some light visibility degradation from smoke for all TAFS sites
later tonight into early morning as winds drop off. Not currently
expected to have MVFR visibility at this point but could occur,
especially for KSUN and KPIH. Wyatt
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Another system rolls in from the Pacific today with RED FLAG
WARNING in effect until 2200 for all fire weather zones outside of
FWZ 422 for a mix of scattered wet and dry thunderstorms.
Stronger storms will support gusty outflow winds in that 40-60 mph
range, heavy rain, and frequent lightning but given PWATs around
that 0.50-0.80" range, the potential for isolated dry
thunderstorms will also exist.
Following this systems exit to our NE on Sunday, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will continue Saturday night into
Sunday as best chances shift north and east. Conditions remain
marginal for a scattered thunderstorms RFW tomorrow so have held
off for the time being. Synoptic winds this weekend will be breezy
each afternoon outside of convection with gusts to around 20-35
mph and minimum RHs in the teens and 20s across our lower
elevations.
High pressure begins to build into early next week ahead of a H5
trough passing over the NRN Rockies on Tuesday. As a result,
conditions will remain dry on Monday with isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the CNTRL Mountains and along the Montana border
region. Outside of isolated thunderstorms, the primary focus will
be on elevated winds peaking each afternoon which will support
near critical to critical fire weather conditions given RHs in the
teens and 20s which may support addition RFWs. Following the exit
of that trough for Wednesday, a H5 ridge axis will shift overhead
and lead to a warming trend through next weekend as conditions
return to being very dry. MacKay
&&
.AIR QUALITY...
Air Quality has improved slightly this afternoon due to
instability helping bring showers and thunderstorms. Air quality
will continue to improve this afternoon as showers and
thunderstorms continue. Air Quality Alerts are in effect for much
of eastern Idaho, relayed from our partners at the Idaho
Department of Environmental Quality (ID DEQ).
Any air quality improvements will likely only be temporary,
however, as there is no shortage of upstream smoke production from
the wildfires in OR, ID, and CA. Expect continued degraded air
quality on Sunday with less confidence heading into early next
week. TAX/Wyatt
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-413-
425-427-475-476.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
950 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms across the area continue through
this evening. Gusty winds 40 to 50+ mph are the main hazard,
though some brief heavy rain is also possible.
- For Sunday, rain chances are mainly over the northern half of
the area, while the southern area becomes drier, with
marginal elevated fire weather concerns.
- Warm and dry will be the story for the upcoming workweek, with
elevated to critical fire weather.&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
A shortwave is making its way through the state today. Showers and
thunderstorms began early for southwest Wyoming this morning, and is
moving northeastward through the state this early afternoon. Like
yesterday, everywhere will have a shot at seeing rain today, with
peak chances (15% to 60%) occurring through this afternoon. Models
continue to struggle resolving the constancy and agreement with
location and timing of convection this afternoon and evening. Models
are showing a couple distinct rounds of storms moving through the
area, however. The first was the morning rain, followed by some
afternoon convection chances, and then finally the potential for an
evening (6pm MDT to little after midnight) push. Again, models have
disagreement on locations of showers/storms, with some models not
having any convection at times other models do. Overall, the main
concerns this afternoon and evening will be with gusty winds.
Outflow gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible. The HRRR continues to show
50+ mph gusts with some storms. It also has a push of stronger
convection (cluster of storms) this evening move across roughly from
Lincoln County, through the Green River Basin, and over the Wind
River Mountains into the Wind River Basin. It has gusts 60 mph, with
some previous ruins showing up to 70 mph. Other models are not
showing this feature, so this will be something to watch today, if
anything does develop. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has roughly
the southern two-thirds of the area in a marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk today.
If some models verify, precipitation could continue a bit past
midnight, with maybe even a few showers making it through Sunday
morning. For Sunday, a ridge begins to build in. This should limit
the afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances (10% to 60%) to the
northern half of the area, with the best chances over the mountains.
Sunday also has some concern when it comes to fire weather. With
drier air moving in, the southern half of the area could see
afternoon relative humidities (RH) drop to around 15% in some
locations. A southwest to west wind of 20 to 35 mph occurs across
the Wind Corridor during the afternoon.
The ridge continues to build for Monday. Overall dry and warm
conditions make a return. Temperatures will be a little above
normal, with widespread afternoon RHs 10% to 12%. Afternoon gusts 20
to 35 mph return fire weather concerns. Monday through Wednesday
will be very similar when it comes to fire weather- widespread low
RHs and gusty afternoon winds. Elevated to critical fire weather
conditions will be in place, and highlights are looking likely
(90%). The ridge looks to continue to build for the entire workweek,
with favoring for warmer and drier than normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 949 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Smoke continues to be advected in the area from the west/southwest,
so some VIS reduction is possible (30-40%) at times through the TAF
period, but should not drop below 6SM. A line of thunderstorms with
outflow wind is moving through southwest WY this evening and will
continue to head east into tonight. It will weaken as it travels
eastward, so KBPI and KPNA are the only terminals that will be
impacted. Lingering rain showers are also near KCOD and may impact
the terminal at times from 06-10Z tonight. Wind will be stronger
Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph for most terminals
through the afternoon hours. More isolated convection will develop
Sunday afternoon, so have included PROB30 groups at the terminals
where the best chance of thunderstorms exists.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Marginal fire concerns for Sunday. Zones 277, 279, 280, and 289 will
have areas of RHs near 15% during the afternoon. Gusts 20 to 30
mph also occur during the afternoon, with gusts closer to 35 mph
for Zone 289. Given the worst conditions over Zone 289, a Red
Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday afternoon. Widespread RHs
around 10% Monday through Wednesday, with afternoon gusts
generally 20 to 30 mph Monday and Tuesday. Elevated fire
weather conditions are looking likely (90%) these days. Thursday
and Friday will continue to be dry, but winds may be less.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ001>013.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ289.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wittmann
AVIATION...Rowe
FIRE WEATHER...Wittmann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Sat Jul 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend and into
next week with the main threats being heavy rainfall with isolated
strong wind gusts. Localized flash flooding will be possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels, a ridge axis was placed from southeastern
Arizona into southern Colorado, while a jet streak was crossing
south-central California through Utah. GOES-West water vapor
imagery showed evidence of favorable convective placement this
afternoon in southern and eastern areas of southeastern Arizona,
with drier mid-level air and less synoptic support further
northwest. This keeps Tucson on the edge of the better convective
probabilities, with chances increasing south towards Nogales and
east towards Safford, Douglas, and the New Mexico border.
As of time of discussion, convection has been well under way
across areas of Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee
counties. Moderate instability, slow storm motions, and decently
moist mid- levels will allow for the threat of heavy rainfall
capable of producing flash flooding, especially as these slow
moving thunderstorms sit over locations vulnerable to excessive
rain. Though not the primary threat, enough mid-level dry air has
moved in to allow for an isolated strong to severe wind gust under
any thunderstorm.
Coverage this evening will rapidly diminish with sunset. A few
high-res models such as the HRRR and UofA WRF produce a batch of
early Sunday morning showers, which seems reasonable as some
instability aloft should remain and the fact hat
showers/thunderstorms were observed early this morning.
Tomorrow, the upper high shifts east a bit and mean flow over
southeastern Arizona becomes southerly. This will bring another
day of likely active monsoon weather, this time better oriented to
potentially bring thunderstorms into the Tucson metro. Forecast
chances are fairly widespread, maximized from Santa Cruz through
Cochise counties where initiation should happen first. Heavy
rainfall and isolated strong wind gusts remain the primary
threats.
Looking through next week, the upper level high should remain
centered east of the region, keeping southerly flow over
southeastern Arizona and daily chances for some sort of coverage
of thunderstorms. With the above normal height anomalies, daily
high temperatures should generally remain above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through 28/02Z near KOLS-KDUG
and up north through KSAD, with a slight chance of one near KTUS.
Very heavy rainfall and isolated gusty outflow winds to 45 kts
near any thunderstorm today. Otherwise winds generally under 12kts
this afternoon and becoming light tonight. Chances for
thunderstorms expected again Sunday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms with day to day variability on which areas will see
the best chance of rainfall. Each day has the threat of heavy
rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Minimum
relative humidities will be 20 to 30 percent in most lower
elevation locations and 25 to 40 percent in mountain areas. Away
from thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or
less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light
winds overnight. As high pressure builds mid-week, high
temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative humidities
should fall by a few percentage points.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
708 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather is expected area wide through
the beginning of the week with temperatures trending closer to
seasonal normals. High pressure will begin to build back into the
Four Corners later in the week with temperatures rising and
monsoonal moisture creeping back into Northwest Arizona.
&&
.UPDATE...Dense smoke plume from the Borel Fire, and less extent the
Trout Fire in Kern and Tulare Counties is advancing eastward over
southern Nye County and western Clark Counties currently. Similar to
last night, this plume will impact the air quality and possibly
produce a reduction in surface visibility not only in Clark,
southern Nye Counties, but Lincoln County as well. Those with severe
respiratory illness are recommended to stay indoors and keep windows
and doors shut.
In other weather news, trough across the PacNW/northern Rockies will
keep the ridge shunted well off to our southeast. This will produce
a southwest flow, keeping the region dry, breezy with near normal
temperatures into the middle of next week. Issue that remains is
that southwest flow transporting additional smoke into the area for
the foreseeable future.
Finally, will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire on schedule at
8 pm PDT.
Will update the smoke/haze grids based on the latest 00Z HRRR-Smoke.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...220 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.SHORT TERM...through Monday.
Surface visibility has improved across the region this afternoon
thanks to breezy conditions and a deepening mixing layer helping
to clear the smoke from the lower elevations. However, regional
air quality remains poor and additional smoke plumes are seen
developing across the south Sierra and Tehachapis this afternoon.
HRRR guidance continues to favor this smoke spreading east this
afternoon and evening, with a fairly large concentration of smoke
expected across southern Inyo, Nye, Lincoln, and northern Clark
counties by late this evening. The upper level flow pattern will
change little through Monday, with southwesterly flow aloft
favoring smoke advection into our northern and central forecast
area through Monday afternoon. Aside from the smoke, breezy
conditions can be expected daily, especially in the afternoon and
evening hours, with temperatures near seasonal normals for late
July.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.
Weak lingering troughing in the Pacific Northwest will begin to
wash out early next week, allowing for our Four Corner high to
rebuild by late in the week. This will encourage a warming trend
midweek and beyond and allow for a slow return of monsoonal
moisture to the region. PoPs through Saturday are mainly confined
to Northwest Arizona, but may spread west to include parts of the
Mojave Desert as well. Otherwise, hot temperatures will return
under the ridge, with the lower deserts/Colorado River Valley
locations back in the 110-115 degree range and Death Valley NP
back above 120 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds with occasional gusts
to around 25kts will continue this afternoon and again on Sunday
afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight tonight, with winds
falling below 10kts before daybreak. Smoke from fires over southern
California will continue to move across the area through the
weekend. While no significant reduction in surface visibilities is
expected through this evening, slantwise visibilities may fall below
7SM at times. The latest HRRR smoke guidance does show a more
concentrated smoke plume moving across the valley after 6Z.
Visibilities less than 7SM have been added for the overnight period,
and periods of less than 6SM will be possible, especially across the
northern half of the valley. Otherwise, no operationally
significant cloud cover is expected through Sunday.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California... South to west winds with occasional gusts to 25kts
will continue at most regional TAF sites today and again on Sunday.
Smoke from fires over southern California will continue to move
across portions of the region through Sunday. The latest HRRR smoke
guidance shows a more concentrated plume developing this evening and
spreading across northern San Bernardino, central and southern Inyo,
southern Nye, and northern Clark counties. Surface visibilities in
these areas may fall below 5SM at times overnight. While some
overall improvement is expected Sunday, southerly winds may push
some smoke into the Owens Valley by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, no
operationally significant cloud cover is expected through Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather continues through this
evening across Northwest Arizona where a Red Flag Warning remains
in effect through 8pm MST for the combination of strong winds and
low RH. Elsewhere, dry and gusty conditions prevail but slightly
weaker winds are resulting in elevated but non critical fire
danger. Gusty and dry weather will continue into early next week
with wind speeds gradually easing.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pierce
DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Planz
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter