Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/28/24


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Weather will trend mainly drier and definitely hotter across central and northern New Mexico to close out July. Some relief from the heat, as well as increased coverage of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms, returns for the first few days of August. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Drier air at mid-levels, rotating around a ridge axis stretching from southeastern AZ into central CO, has kept a lid on convective coverage so far early this afternoon. Also of note on the 12Z ABQ sounding were two subsident/stable layers with bases near 700mb and 500mb...yet precipitable water was 1.09 inches. Latest HRRR run still suggests that storm coverage will moderately increase over the next few hours, peaking around 5-7 PM, before tapering off toward sunset. Mid/upper-level ridge axis will be nosing closer as well, so not expecting convection to persist as long into the evening as last night. Heading into Sunday, the focus will turn to heat for most, though scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected during the afternoon roughly for areas along and west of the central mountain chain and south of I-40. The upper-level high center is progged to drift to near ELP, with 500mb temps on the warmer side at -4 to -5 deg C. However, both the NAM and GFS indicate a weak mid-level wave rounding the western flank of the high and moving through the southwestern portion of the area during the afternoon/early evening. This is where the highest rain chances will lie. Flash flood guidance in portions of the southwest mountains/Gila NF is as low as 1.0-1.5 inches in one hour, with HREF ensemble maxima indicating a few storms could be capable of this. However, not seeing a widespread enough signal for a Flash Flood Watch. The heat will be back on as well, generally 5-7 deg F above normal from the RGV eastward, with the ABQ metro reaching the mid-90s and spots in the eastern plans pushing 100F. More on the heat in the long-term section, below... && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Heat builds over much of the state for the last few days of July, peaking on Wednesday or perhaps Thursday. On Monday, the centroid of the upper high starts drifting toward west Texas, though heights remain fairly high along ridging stretching back westward. Scattered storms should be present once again over the southwestern mountains, with more isolated activity along the central mountain chain. Such will be the case again on Tuesday, perhaps with some enhancement from a modest jet max ahead of a subtropical upper low moving up the Gulf of California. Will have to keep an eye on rainfall amounts/soil conditions in this area if repeated rounds of storms occur over the next several days. Roswell may be pushing Heat Advisory criterion as soon as Monday, with the current forecast high at 104F, though this will be more likely Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday, when Heat Risk category rises squarely into the "High" level. The Albuquerque metro area may also need Heat Advisories, though with the aforementioned high nudging eastward, we may not hit the century mark here. Heat stress will still be a factor, with those upper 90s temps running 5-7 degrees above normal. A little more uncertainty creeps into the forecast late in the week, but overall, more isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms and some relief from the heat will be the rule. On Thursday, the subtropical ridge actually rebounds westward, in our direction. A modest back-door cold front is also progged to move through the northeast portion of the state, with attendant easterly flow behind pumping up surface dewpoints back above 50F for areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Heading into Friday and beyond, the upper high drifts back toward the Four Corners, or possibly further north along the UT/CO border. The ECMWF has the low center further north, for what it`s worth, and ensemble clusters don`t clearly favor either positioning. At any rate, the lesser heights would suggest temps closer to normal and continued typical monsoon shower/storm chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Scattered showers/storms are trekking southeast over portions of Catron and western Socorro Counties as well as off the Sangre de Cristo Mts. There is isolated coverage of showers/storms b/w these areas. TEMPOs and PROB30s remain for central NM terminals KABQ, KAEG, KSAF and KLVS for potential direct or indirect impacts from a passing storm. Conditions clear overnight and drier air penetrating further into the forecast area will limit thunderstorm coverage Sunday. In fact, no TAF terminal has a mention of shra or ts for Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 No critical fire weather conditions are expected over the next seven days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward, are in progress and should continue into the early evening. Drier air works in Sunday through Tuesday, leading to fewer storms, most of which will favor the southwest mountains. As temperatures increase, relative humidity does fall to around 15 percent over the Northwest Plateau on Sunday. However, 20-foot winds around only 10mph and ERC`s around the 50th percentile preclude any elevated fire weather conditions. A backdoor front arriving around next Thursday should cool temperatures bit, as well as increase thunderstorm coverage toward the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 93 61 94 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 49 88 47 90 / 10 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 57 87 57 88 / 30 5 5 10 Gallup.......................... 56 90 56 89 / 20 10 10 20 El Morro........................ 57 84 56 84 / 30 30 20 30 Grants.......................... 60 87 59 88 / 30 20 20 30 Quemado......................... 58 84 58 86 / 50 50 30 60 Magdalena....................... 62 87 63 89 / 40 40 20 30 Datil........................... 58 83 58 84 / 50 60 20 50 Reserve......................... 56 90 57 91 / 50 60 30 60 Glenwood........................ 67 94 67 95 / 50 60 30 60 Chama........................... 49 81 51 84 / 20 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 62 86 64 87 / 40 5 5 20 Pecos........................... 59 87 61 88 / 40 5 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 85 51 86 / 30 0 0 10 Red River....................... 48 76 49 78 / 40 0 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 44 80 44 82 / 20 0 0 10 Taos............................ 52 90 53 90 / 20 0 0 5 Mora............................ 53 85 55 87 / 20 5 0 10 Espanola........................ 60 95 61 95 / 30 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 61 89 64 90 / 50 5 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 92 61 93 / 40 5 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 69 95 / 40 10 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 95 67 97 / 30 10 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 97 66 98 / 30 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 96 68 97 / 30 10 10 5 Belen........................... 64 96 64 97 / 30 10 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 67 97 66 98 / 30 5 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 64 96 64 98 / 30 10 10 5 Corrales........................ 67 97 67 98 / 30 10 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 66 96 65 98 / 30 10 10 5 Placitas........................ 65 93 66 94 / 30 5 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 67 97 68 98 / 30 5 10 0 Socorro......................... 68 97 68 99 / 30 20 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 87 62 89 / 30 10 5 10 Tijeras......................... 63 90 64 91 / 30 10 5 10 Edgewood........................ 59 90 59 92 / 30 10 5 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 92 56 93 / 40 5 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 57 88 59 90 / 30 5 0 10 Mountainair..................... 60 90 60 91 / 30 10 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 60 90 61 91 / 30 20 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 66 94 66 94 / 30 20 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 60 84 61 86 / 20 40 10 30 Capulin......................... 56 89 59 89 / 20 5 0 5 Raton........................... 54 93 56 93 / 30 0 0 0 Springer........................ 55 94 56 94 / 20 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 55 90 57 90 / 40 5 0 10 Clayton......................... 65 97 67 99 / 10 5 0 0 Roy............................. 60 93 61 94 / 20 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 66 100 66 101 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 96 65 97 / 20 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 99 69 102 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 67 98 69 102 / 5 5 0 0 Portales........................ 67 98 69 102 / 5 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 99 69 102 / 10 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 71 101 73 104 / 5 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 65 95 66 96 / 10 20 5 5 Elk............................. 62 92 63 94 / 10 30 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1051 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat index values are forecast to be in the 80s to lower 90s and the wet- bulb globe temperatures are mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. At these levels, we remain in the level 1 to level 2 of 4 for heat risk; Minor to Moderate for heat sensitive individuals. - Shower/storm chances through Monday and again Wednesday and Thursday. The potential for convective complexes with lingering clouds and precipitation could affect the above normal temperatures forecast. Severe weather potential appears limited through Monday and will hinge on the details of the convection later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Overview: Latest water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed closed low pressure over Saskatchewan and Manitoba with southwest flow aloft from the West Coast through the Northern Plains toward Ontario. The 500mb high pressure ridge centered over much of the Great Lakes. A mesoscale convective complex was noted on the periphery of the ridge over Ontario. A couple other areas with convection were over parts of Arizona into the Rockies and with a weak embedded shortwave trough over South Dakota. Closed low pressure was over eastern Kansas/western Missouri. The KLSE VAD wind profiler showed week warm advection through the saturated layer. The early morning satellite images had some accas development with a few spotty showers popping up per the WSR-88D radar. By 19Z...convection had increased across northern Minnesota with a shortwave trough and also across Missouri near the closed low. Temperatures were in the 80s to around 90 with dewpoints varying from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. SBCAPE per the SPC mesographics were around 3000 J/kg with downdraft CAPE 1000-1200J/kg. The HRRR has been consistent on small chances for an isolated shower or storm north of I90 or I94 around 00/01Z. With the heating today if the pocket of moisture is real, cannot rule out something isolated. The pattern this week shows a ridge building to our west with the heat and high temperatures in the 90s/100+ for the Rockies and the Plains. Locally, we have a trough of 500mb low pressure lifting northeast across parts of the Mississippi Valley Sunday with a shortwave across the Northern Plains moving east Monday. Heights build Tuesday with a ripple topping the ridge later Tuesday night and Wednesday, yet another trough is forecast to over the Northern Plains and to progress into the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday. Heat and Humidity this Week: Typical temperatures this time of year are mostly in the lower to mid 80s. This past week, temperatures were generally below normal in the 70s to around 80. The area of low pressure lifting northeast for Sunday with clouds and precipitation chances will hold some temperatures to the 70s and lower 80s across the southeast half of the forecast area, otherwise, lower to mid 80s are forecast with sticky dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s to mid 70s. The rest of the week, at or above normal highs generally from 80 to 90 degrees are forecast. Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloudcover and if there are convective complexes in the area. Records this time of year are generally 98 to 105, so no records are forecast. Dewpoints during the afternoon will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower and mid 70s, so pretty typical for late July and early August. Fortunately, for most nights, lows drop into the 60s. Heat index values are in the 80s to lower 90s and the wet-bulb globe temperatures are mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. At these levels, we remain in the level 1 to level 2 of 4 for heat risk; Minor to Moderate for heat sensitive individuals. Moisture transport is more prevalent to the northwest and southeast of the forecast area tonight into Sunday, generally increasing across the forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Precipitable water values (PWAT) are around 1 to 1.5". Some drying is forecast this evening, however 1.5 to 2"+ PWAT values advect northward into eastern IA and southern WI Sunday. These high PWATs shift east Sunday evening, however 2"+ PWATs increase from the west overnight and continue through Monday. Cannot rule out a spotty shower or thunderstorm into early evening north of I90 within a pocket of moisture/instability. The 27.00Z HRRR neural net even had a low probability for hail/wind should a storm develop, however the 06Z/12Z runs dropped this. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances increase with the upper level trough drifting into the area Sunday/temps reaching convective temps/MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg. We currently have 20-40% due to the scattered nature and low confidence in how far northwest the showers/storms will develop. The forcing is weak and some capping is possible. The Hi-res cams show increased rain chances over southwest WI into eastern IA and possibly southeast MN. Deep layer shear remains low with MLCAPE of 2000-3000J/kg. The area is in the general thunder area with the risk level 1/5 west of the area across parts of MN/IA. The CSU machine learning forecasts have some 5 to 15% wind probabilities for our western counties. The movement of storms is only around 10 or 12kts with 1.5" of PWAT, thus cannot rules out isolated hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours of rain where storms form. Showers/thunderstorms increase Sunday night from the southwest with increasing moisture transport across Iowa and a shortwave drifting southeast. The low level jet is progged to increase 40-50kts across western Iowa and 30 to 40kts in a smaller area as it shifts east into Monday. The warm cloud depth is nearly 4km with initially slow storm movement, thus they could put down heavy rain. The storms should favor the instability gradient. The trend is for the storms to push north and east during the day with the shortwave trough moving east during the day. The 24hr 27.12Z 10km neighborhood probabilities for .5" or more are 30-70% for parts of Iowa with the higher probabilities toward DBQ/Austin MN ending at 7am Monday. Deep layer shear increases 30-40kts. We are currently in a risk level 1 of 5 for Monday and the CSU machine learning forecasts have some 5 to 15% severe probabilities for our entire area. This will be something to keep up with depending on how the details pan out. Unsure if any storms will linger Monday night is there is not good agreement will trailing energy at this time. The ridge builds in Tuesday with the next shortwave topping the ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday. An MCC could be over parts of the forecast area Wednesday morning. There are hints at another MCS either Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. The CSU machine learning forecasts have some 5 to 30% severe weather probabilities for our area. There is not good agreement for Thursday if the ridge will build in or we`ll be impacted by convection. While we are in more of a minimum for rainfall early in the forecast, Tuesday night into Thursday we are more in the maximum area. The 3hr flash flood guidance is mostly 2.25-3.5". Many areas could use and inch or two of rainfall as the rainfall has been more hit and miss the last two weeks. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, with pockets of high MVFR ceilings southeast of LSE during the daytime hours that may also include a few showers and thunderstorms. Winds remain from the south around 10 kts through the TAF period, slightly lower at night and higher during the day. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Skow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
640 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - 20% chance or less of afternoon/early evening isolated storms - Storm chances Sunday night/Monday with a low risk of severe weather with hail and gusty winds the main threats - Increasing heat, humidity, and resultant heat index values into the middle of next week with heat headlines possible. - Chances for showers and storms exist throughout next week, but are most likely Wednesday evening into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Short Term /Tonight through Sunday Night/... GOES-East clean IR imagery shows the spin of the shortwave over the Kansas-Missouri border area with a plume of moisture from Mexico up into eastern Missouri. This shortwave will lift up into Iowa and some of that plume of moisture is/will be advected back northwest and west on the north side of the shortwave. As was seen yesterday, the more convective happy models such as the WRF-ARW, FV3, NAMNest, and RRFS also show isolated pop up storms later this afternoon. Have also noted this trend in the HRRR today as well so have once again placed low PoPs over southern Iowa starting about mid-afternoon. As in past days, these storms would pose locally heavy downpours, gusty outflow winds, and lightning. While there remains quite the spread in location, southern Iowa likely has the relatively highest chance given proximity to the shortwave and moisture plume and hence why PoPs have been focused in this area. As the shortwave arrives tonight, a few storms may pass over our far eastern forecast area from Davis up to Bremer county, but much of the activity will be focused east of this area over eastern Iowa. Otherwise, Sunday will have highs well into the 80s to near 90 degrees and dewpoints well into the 60s to lower half of the 70s. Heat index values will be at most in the middle 90s. Attention Sunday night turns upstream to a shortwave trough moving through the Dakotas with low level thermal lift ahead of it paired with a strengthening 850mb low level jet. These forcing mechanisms combined with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg and modest deep layer shear will bring the chance for a few severe storms. Hail and gusty winds may be possible as the storms swing through late evening or after midnight. Long Term /Monday through Friday/... Showers and storms late Sunday will move east of the area Monday morning as the upper level shortwave and associated frontal boundary moves east. The thermal ridge begins moving toward the east on Monday with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values may reach the low 90s north to mid 100s across the south. NWS HeatRisk highlights a broad moderate risk of heat related impacts across the CWA Monday. Those outdoors should plan ahead and take necessary precautions to avoid heat related illnesses. By late Monday, the upper level shortwave moves towards the Great Lakes area. Showers and storms may be possible later Monday into Tuesday but is highly dependent on how the Monday morning convection evolves and what kind, if any, suppression of afternoon storms occurs. The SPC currently outlines a marginal risk of severe weather across portions of eastern Iowa at the moment. The hot weather continues Tuesday and Wednesday as the thermal ridge axis shifts farther east. HeatRisk output indicates moderate to major heat related impacts across the CWA during this period. Heat headlines will be possible next week, particularly towards mid week. As noted in the discussion this morning, a few waves may ride along the ridge during this period, which could limit our temperatures with the associated storms or cloud cover. Nonetheless, expect a few warm and muggy days. Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning will see one of these upper level waves advancing eastward into Iowa/Minnesota. Chances for showers and storms are depicted by both the European and GFS solutions across northern portions of the area, but BUFKIT soundings reveal a rather deep warm layer aloft associated with the advancing thermal trough. This warm layer will most likely limit sfc based convection, but enough synoptic lift appears present at this time which may lead to elevated convection. CSU severe probabilities for Tuesday night into Wednesday do highlight a 15% chance of severe weather across a large swath of the CWA. Bulk shear and instability values for this period are indicative of strong storms, but again, this will be highly dependent on our temperatures aloft. Any storms that form Wednesday morning will push off to the east during the day. By Wednesday evening, a stronger, more potent trough from the west and associated sfc low will push east into the area. The GFS has the upper level wave a bit faster into the area Wednesday evening with convection forming along a frontal boundary, while the ECMWF solution lags somewhat with convection forming late Wednesday evening into Thursday. CSU severe probabilities highlight another 15% chance across the area. With the aforementioned thermal ridge still in the vicinity, expect convection to be elevated and in the form of an MCS given the prominent speed shear seen from BUFKIT soundings. However, given differences in the speed and timing of the shortwave from the deterministic models, details on specific hazards and location are limited and will continue to be refined in the coming days. Model solutions begin to diverge around Thursday evening with the European solution showing the lagged trough deepening and strengthening. The Canadian model also seems to agree with this solution, while the GFS is indicative of a ridge. These differing solutions late in the period lead to uncertainty in PoPs late in the period. The good news is that temperatures seem to lower to the mid 80s to near 90 late in the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated through at least the evening with mainly mid level cloudiness central and east. A system tracking up the MS Valley into early Sunday may bring a period of IFR/MVFR conditions Sunday morning however, mainly due to ceilings versus visibility restrictions. Confidence in VFR conditions increases again area wide later Sunday. There is some potential for precip east as well, near KALO and KOTM, but the confidence is not sufficient to mention at this lead time. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
534 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Shower and storm chances continue through the weekend, favoring areas across western New Mexico with localized flash flooding and gusty outflow winds as the primary threats. Mostly dry and abnormally warm conditions continue for the Rio Grande Valley and western Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Overall, no major changes in the forecast from previous forecast packages with daily afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances, focusing over area along and west of the Continental Divide and the Gila region. Current water vapor satellite imagery overlayed with 500mb RAP analysis shows high pressure aloft expanding and progressing towards the east across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, highest PW values of 1.0-1.3 inches occur generally along and west of the Continental Divide, along with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. PW values of 0.9-1.1 inches areas east. The aforementioned high pressure will circulate drier air in the mid to upper levels from the west/northwest. This will help inhibit convective update growth across the eastern 2/3s of the forecast area. Shower and storm coverage will once again favor areas along and west of the Divide and the Gila Region, with scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. Like previous days, the primary threats will be gusty outflow winds and localized flash flooding. Isolated coverage expected for areas along and east of the RGV. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the desert lowlands. Upper high will be overhead on Sunday will scattered mountains and isolated lowland storm chances areawide. Temperatures on Sunday will be very similar to today. Upper high and ridge axis will shift further east across central and eastern TX at the beginning of next week. The corresponding monsoonal moisture corridor will respond, slowly shifting east across NM. Fairly consistent weather pattern will setup with daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances areawide, scattered in the mountains and isolated in the lowlands. High temperatures through the first half of the week will be in the upper 90s to low 100s across the lowlands, 100-103 for the El Paso metro. By the end of next work week and into the weekend. Model and ensemble guidance shows the upper level high reestablishing itself of the Central Rockies. Above average warmth, along with general monsoonal type storm activity can be expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected through period across all of the TAF sites with CIG SCT110-BKN250. There will be a couple of TS across the Borderland, which will produce outflows that may cause the winds across much of the terminals to become breezy (10 to 15 with gust up to 20 kts) especially at the KDNM and KTCS at least until 03Z. The winds should subside thereafter. Also, TS may move across the terminals (not mentioned in the TAFs). Should TS move over the terminals mainly west of the Rio Grande, they could produce +RA that could briefly reduce VSBY. Otherwise, there will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Fire weather concerns remain LOW through the period. Recent monsoonal moisture surges and rainfall have helped, as ERC values below 50th percentile at most sites. Weather wise, scattered shower and storm chances remain in the forecast through weekend with the focus and better coverage for areas along and west of the Divide and Gila Region. Gusty outflow winds, lightning, and wetting rains will be the primary impacts. Temperatures through the period will continue running above the seasonal average with Min RH values each in the 25-40 percent range of the high terrain and 20-30 percent range over the lowlands. Winds will be light and generally diurnal/terrain driven in terms of direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 101 77 103 / 40 20 30 10 Sierra Blanca 67 92 68 95 / 20 30 30 10 Las Cruces 72 100 72 100 / 40 20 40 10 Alamogordo 69 97 71 98 / 20 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 54 74 54 76 / 20 50 20 40 Truth or Consequences 70 96 71 97 / 50 30 20 20 Silver City 63 89 64 90 / 50 70 30 60 Deming 69 98 71 98 / 40 30 40 10 Lordsburg 69 95 69 96 / 70 50 40 40 West El Paso Metro 75 98 75 100 / 40 20 40 10 Dell City 70 98 71 101 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 71 100 72 102 / 40 30 40 10 Loma Linda 67 91 69 93 / 30 30 30 10 Fabens 73 98 74 100 / 40 30 40 10 Santa Teresa 72 97 73 98 / 50 20 50 10 White Sands HQ 74 97 74 99 / 40 30 30 10 Jornada Range 70 97 71 98 / 40 30 30 10 Hatch 70 100 71 101 / 50 30 30 20 Columbus 72 97 73 98 / 50 30 50 10 Orogrande 70 96 71 98 / 20 20 20 10 Mayhill 59 85 59 87 / 20 50 10 30 Mescalero 58 86 59 87 / 20 50 10 30 Timberon 57 83 57 86 / 20 40 20 20 Winston 59 87 58 88 / 50 70 20 40 Hillsboro 67 94 68 95 / 60 50 40 30 Spaceport 67 97 68 98 / 40 30 20 20 Lake Roberts 60 88 59 90 / 50 80 40 60 Hurley 65 92 64 93 / 50 60 30 40 Cliff 64 98 64 100 / 40 60 30 50 Mule Creek 65 91 66 92 / 50 60 30 50 Faywood 66 92 66 93 / 40 50 40 40 Animas 69 95 69 95 / 70 60 50 50 Hachita 67 95 69 95 / 80 40 50 30 Antelope Wells 67 92 68 93 / 60 60 60 50 Cloverdale 64 87 64 87 / 50 70 60 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
353 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A prolonged period of much above normal temperatures over 100 degrees are forecast Sunday through Thursday. Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are anticipated Sunday and Monday with 100 to 110 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. - Scattered storms developing along the I-25 corridor this aft will track slowly east toward the KS border late this aft- eve. Brief, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible in assoc/w any storms, mainly in northeast CO and adjacent KS-NE border areas between 6-10 pm MDT. - Scattered storms *may* develop over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE Sunday afternoon. An isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph is possible, mainly between 3-8 pm MDT / 4-9 pm CDT. Low confidence w/regard to whether or not storms will develop. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Today-Tonight: A lingering upper level ridge over the High Plains will further erode today as modest cyclonic flow aloft envelopes the central Rockies. Such a flow regime is relatively more supportive of [1] diurnal lee cyclone development and [2] scattered convective development in climatologically/ topographically favored areas. Expect temperatures similar to yesterday. Current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that scattered convection developing along the Colorado Front Range /I-25 corridor/ this afternoon will slowly track east (via weak W to SW steering flow) toward northern portions of the CO-KS border late this afternoon, potentially affecting Yuma-Cheyenne-Dundy counties this evening (~01-06 UTC time frame). In a setup characterized by weak synoptic forcing.. marginal high-based instability (500-1000 J/kg mlcape).. weak low-level/mid-level flow and effective deep layer shear < ~25 knots.. organized convection is not anticipated. The presence of seasonably strong (1300-1600 J/kg) DCAPE suggests that brief, localized severe downbursts are possible in assoc/w *any* high- based convection capable of producing lightning. Expect convective potential to decrease precipitously with eastern extent from the CO-KS border this evening.. where steering flow further weakens, convective inhibition will be increasing (after sunset) and lingering subsidence on the western periphery of a stalled upper level /300 mb/ low (centered invof the eastern KS-OK border) will tend to suppress development. Sun-Sun night: Modest unidirectional /westerly/ flow will envelope the region (in the wake of the recently eroded ridge) on Sunday.. advecting a pristine elevated mixed layer eastward from the Rockies into the High Plains. Profoundly deep vertical mixing (from the surface to 500 mb) will foster the development of a considerable dewpoint gradient /dryline/ over portions of the area Sunday afternoon.. where surface dewpoints may range from the lower 60s (invof Hwy 283) to the teens and 20s (eastern CO). Current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST vary considerably with regard to low-level moisture distribution over the Tri-State area -- and whether or not isolated convection may develop -- suggesting that convective development may highly depend upon specific aspects of the mesoscale pattern. With the above in mind, expect a conditional potential for isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and/or large hail.. mainly along/east of Hwy 83 and along/north of I-70 in the 21-02 UTC time frame. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 The long term period continues to be forecast to be hot and relatively dry. The beginning part of the work week continues to have an upper ridge forecast to move over the Plains and amplify. With forecast 850mb temps in the mid 30`s C, high temperatures continue to be forecast in the 100`s. Mid to upper 100`s are looking likely Tues and potentially Wed. Heat index values continue to be forecast around the mid 100`s for Tues and Wed, so a Heat Advisory for counties generally along and east of Highway 83 may be needed in the coming days. Otherwise, not much concern for storms with the broad subsidence over the area. Fire Weather concerns for the beginning of the weak are also low. In spite of the dry RHs forecast for the western half of the area, the overall weak flow will be unlikely to have winds or wind gusts exceed 25 mph. For the mid part of the week, guidance continues to suggest a low amplitude trough will move across the Northern Plains from the Northwest CONUS. This would temporarily deamplify the trough and allow for slightly cooler temperatures in the 90`s and low 100`s. The area would also have some chances for afternoon and evening storms in northwest flow aloft. Will need to watch for critical fire weather as the increase in gradients and flow may allow winds to increase towards 25 mph or greater. Wednesday looks to have the greatest chance depending on how quickly the trough moves through. For the end of the week, the ridge is forecast to reamplify over the Western CONUS and shift into the Plains again. There are a couple of ensemble members that try to swing a trough through the Great Lakes region or quick eject another trough from the northwest. However, neither of these cases seem to be strong signals, so am favoring a fairly quick warm up back into the 100`s. The heat will likely continue. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 353 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. Some shower potential from 01z-05z Sunday, but low confidence on impact to the terminal, so will have a tempo group. Winds, south around 10-20kts through 05z, then turning east around 10kts. By 11z, becoming west-northwest around 10-15kts. From 01z-05z, if showers do occur, outflow could create some brief gusts into the 25-35kt range. For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period at this time. Low confidence of late shower activity impacting the terminal around 08z Sunday, so will leave out for now and update as needed or with next forecast issuance. Winds, south- southeast 10-20kts through 08z then becoming light/variable. By 19z, southeast 5-10kts. Will monitor for potential haze development as winds go light. Currently any reduction will stay west of terminal. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 July 29 High Temperature Records (F): Goodland......104 in 1947 McCook........109 in 1947 Burlington....100 in 2012 Hill City.....108 in 1917 July 30 High Temperature Records (F): Goodland......106 in 1935 McCook........105 in 2002 Burlington....101 in 2012 Hill City.....109 in 1976 July 31 High Temperature Records (F): Goodland......105 in 2002 McCook........107 in 2002 Burlington....102 in 2002 Hill City.....113 in 1934 Goodland has the potential for 5 consecutive days of highs of 100+ degrees which would tie it for the 14th longest on record. Last time this happened was July of 2012. McCook is also currently forecasted at 5 consecutive days of 100+ degree temperatures which would tie it for 20th all time. However a few days of overachieving temperatures could put them in the top 6 all time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BV LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...JN CLIMATE...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
953 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic showers Sunday - Increasing threat for multiple storm clusters to impact the region next week - Heavy rainfall/flooding and some severe potential with storms next week && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Our forecast is on track tonight and no changes are needed as of right now. Satellite and radar imagery show increasing clouds and showers developing across Illinois. High-res guidance slowly propagates this activity eastward until it reaches central parts of our CWA around 12-15z. Cloud cover and PoP grids look reasonable given current trends in these data. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 HRRR smoke model shows a residual signal from smoke that was shifted down to our latitude by the departing trough. Its magnitude is decreasing in the model and it`s difficult to see in the satellite data now, so its sensible impacts will be minimal. Most of the fresh smoke is being shunted well north of our area within the polar jet westerlies. Nevertheless, a slight hazy look to the sky may be seen, especially around sunset. Similar to last evening, the sunlight may be muted slightly on the western horizon this evening with light scattering resulting in a redish tint to the setting sun. Otherwise, we don`t expect impacts from residual smoke. What may obscure the sunset relative to yesterday is a thickening cirrus shield as high-level moisture plume arrives. Cirrus within amplifying but weakening subtropical jet is spreading northeastward, but the more pronounced IVT signal with deeper tropospheric moisture surge comes tonight per model prognostics. It isn`t until the predawn hours that richer lower tropospheric moisture arrives, but per dynamic tropopause/PV progs, the forcing lags. These summertime upper troughs often have poor midlevel lapse rates and can support a deep tropospheric moisture plume. Thus, efficient rainfall and limited convective intensity are usually favored. Given the moisture profile, if the forecast were to trend one way or another for tomorrow it would probably be wetter and cooler with periodic showers. Wetter from greater coverage of showers and some possible augmentation by a deep warm cloud layer and shallower convective process to which a blended model forecast process may under-represent. Cooler from diabatic effects of precipitation that again may be somewhat under-represented if precipitation coverage actually does end up greater. We would go with even higher precipitation probabilities tomorrow if the deep moist warm conveyor belt were better aligned with the synoptic-scale forcing, but we feel 70-80 percent probabilities best fit this situation. Precision with timing of what may be a few waves of showers still is somewhat unclear. It appears the initial warm advection-driven northwest-southeast band of showers will move in during the morning, with synoptic scale ascent increasing during the afternoon and pairing with diurnal destabilization to increase shower coverage through the afternoon. Will limit thunder probabilities somewhat to de-emphasize wording in the public forecast, focusing on showers. This is due to the poor midlevel lapse rates which should limit significant/intense convection. However, some deeper convection with lightning and heavy rainfall rates will occur and HREF QPF max has some spotty high amounts as a result. So, we will need to watch for localized flooding, even though it`s a low probability. && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Refer to the overnight shift`s discussion below. The only addition points to make from new model data are: 1. While the most intense convection may tend to upshear propagate Monday night, confidence is a bit higher in at a least remnant convective cluster reaching portions of central Indiana. We`ll need to watch its placement closely for a potential heavy rain/flooding scenario, but this looks more likely in Illinois. 2. Tuesday-Wednesday could be a relative lull with upward-trending 500-mb heights. But, we do have a seasonally swift midlevel flow and plenty of moisture/instability as steeper lapse rate plume moves in, so MCS maintenance from any upstream activity would be our main impetus, and worthy of low-mid range precipitation probabilities still. 3. Ensembles are a little more stratified but still have some chaos Thursday-Friday. This does appear to be the period of the long term that has the greatest potential for synoptic-scale forcing helping with organized convection potential, but timing remains unclear for now. 4. Upper flow trajectories may be a little more favorable for western wildfire smoke to impact us next week. --previous discussion-- Long term guidance has shifted slightly, with a further south and weaker upper level ridge early in the period before the ridge pushes back west and amplifies late in the week. The upshot of this is that already fairly omnipresent convective chances this week are increased somewhat, particularly early in the week, as multiple upper level disturbances rounding the upper level ridge are likely to impinge upon the area, providing multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Chances decrease a bit later in the week, at least partially as a result of greater model spread and uncertainty with respect to the influences of prior rounds of convection on the later mesoscale environmental setups. Precipitable water values frequently at or in excess of 1.7-2.0" this week are expected, along with seasonably high wet bulb zero heights, suggesting high precipitation efficiency and strong rainfall rates with any convection, and thus hydrologic concerns will be top of mind this week. One or more rounds of severe storms will be possible as well through the work week, though given the instability/cold pool driven nature of this convection, predictability expectedly wanes fairly quickly with time, though experimental machine learning guidance continues to suggest broad areas of at least low severe threat daily through the week. Damaging winds would be the primary concern with convection this week. Temperatures are generally expected to warm from near to slightly below normal to near to slightly above normal by mid week, though NBM spread is significant, likely owing to the convective uncertainty, which could present a major failure mode to hotter high temperature forecasts as the week wears on. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 744 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Impacts: - Rain showers with associated MVFR conditions possible after 12z. - Embedded thunderstorms increasingly likely during the afternoon Discussion: VFR conditions are expected through at least daybreak Sunday. Mid-level ceilings slowly drop through the night, especially after 06z as deeper moisture arrives. MVFR conditions are possible once precipitation begins to enter into the area. The best chance for showers looks to be from about 12z onward, give or take an hour or two. On and off showers should continue through the TAF period. Thunderstorms become increasingly likely as the afternoon progresses, and these will also be scattered in nature. Winds should retain a southeasterly component tonight, possibly going light and variable in a few places. Speeds increase after daybreak and direction becomes more southerly with time. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...Eckhoff SHORT TERM...BRB LONG TERM...BRB/Nield AVIATION...Eckhoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and the primary hazards are wind damage and large hail. - Isolated severe storms are also possible Sunday afternoon and evening and the primary hazards are wind damage and large hail. Winds aloft will increase and become strong. There is some concern significant wind or hail damage may develop. - Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest of the next 7 days with forecast highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 At 3pm CDT, skies remained mostly sunny. Cumulus has developed across portions of Sheridan and northwest Cherry County, which will be an early focus area for isolated storm development. Temperatures ranged from 87 at Broken Bow to 95 at Valentine. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 A weak surface trough across the Nebraska panhandle and far northwest Sandhills will be the focus for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon and tonight. Effective bulk shear increases to 30kts by early evening. Strong afternoon heating and a weak disturbance exiting sern Wy and nctrl CO will move through this evening. Surface Theta-E advection is in place across the panhandle and will increase by early evening into the western Sandhills. The latest convective allowing models shows scattered coverage across the eastern panhandle at 00Z to move east and decrease in coverage and weak by 05Z near Highway 83. SPC is forecasting a Marginal Risk for isolated severe wind and hail threat for areas mainly near and west of Highway 83. Given downdraft CAPEs up to 800 J/kg, wind would seem to be the primary concern followed by marginally hail. After midnight, a slight chance for showers and storms across the east. Lows from 60 to 65 western Sandhills, to the upper 60s to near 70 east, where southerly winds will keep the surface mixed. On Sunday, the upper ridge will flatten out across the Central Plains. Surface low pressure will deepen across the region, with two separate lows developing. One will be across southwest into south central SD, the second across swrn NE into nwrn KS. A dryline will exist just west of Highway 83. By peak heating, isolated to scattered storms development is supported. Deep layer shear will be near 35kts and moisture will continue to pool with PWAT increasing to 1.25 to 1.33 inches east of highway 83. The 700mb cap will likely be broken late in the afternoon around 21z or so. Model consensus is for storms to initiate near and west of Highway 83 over the central Sandhills and track southeast into a few storm clusters by late afternoon and early evening. The 12z HRRR indicated a couple of storms with 70 mph gusts across portions of Custer County into south central Nebraska. A severe hail threat will also accompany a few of the storms. POPs are 30 percent for this event due to model differences on location. SPC is forecasting a Slight Risk for areas near and east of Highway 83. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 The upper ridge will rebuild into the region Monday and Tuesday, before an upper trough moves into the Northern Plains on Wednesday. Expect temperatures to reach near 100 across southwest Nebraska on Monday with many locations reaching or exceeding 100 degrees on Tuesday. A weak front could move in Wednesday, through medium range models differ. The southwest is likely to again surpass 100 degrees with mid to upper 90s elsewhere. Thursday into Friday, the upper ridge will become centered over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though little relief from the heat as highs still in the 90s. There is a slight chance for storms Thursday and Friday evenings. However, most days will remain dry, with little or no rainfall expected. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Currently, scattered thunderstorms developing in the Panhandle and northwest Sandhills are merging into clusters or a line. Coverage will continue to increase as the activity pushes eastward, impacting both LBF and VTN in the next 2 to 4 hours. These storms will bring the threat for brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds. Will rely heavily on radar and satellite trends should amendments be needed as storms progress eastward. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain gusty from the south with gusts of 20 to 30 kts persisting. Winds subside some overnight after the thunderstorm activity exits eastward, generally 15 kts or less. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Viken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
117 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly White Pine and eastern Elko counties through the early evening hours. Main threats will be wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail. For tomorrow, drier air will continue its eastward trek with quiet conditions over the area. Breezy west to southwest winds with gusts of 15 to 25 mph over most of the region Sunday afternoon and early evening. Smoke from California wildfires will continue to impact northern and central Nevada over the coming days with periods of both reduced visibility and air quality likely. High pressure will build in from the east, bringing gradually warming temperatures and quiet conditions. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Current radar is showing isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing across portions of eastern and northeastern Nevada at this time. Favorable CAPE and shear will allow stronger storms to form especially across northeastern Nevada with wind gusts to 60 mph. These storms will continue into the early evening hours before dissipating. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear though smoke from nearby wildfires will cause obscuration and lowered visibility across northern and central Nevada. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. By Sunday and Sunday night, southwest flow aloft will continue across northern and central Nevada, further drying out the air mass. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts to 20 mph. Smoke and haze from nearby wildfires will continue to hamper visibility across the area. Highs will generally be in the 80s to 90s. Look for generally clear conditions, save for smoke and haze, for the overnight with lows in the 40s and 50s. .LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday. Potential smoke impacts and slowly rising high temperatures are the main weather concerns for this long term forecast period. Model runs show southwest flow over the Silver State on the upstream flow of an amplifying ridge building into the the Four Corners/southern Plains regions. As the upper level trough over the northern Rockies pushes further east into the northern Plains by mid-week the ridge to the south slides westward and amplifies back into the western CONUS. By Friday the associated strong high pressure center is located over the Four Corners region allowing for the possibility of weekend monsoonal moisture. Speaking of moisture, it will be hard to come by this week as SW flow over the region keeps the area scoured out and relative humidity values low. Temperatures will steadily increase this week, slowly at first with high temperatures Monday and Tuesday ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s. The big changeover to hot afternoon highs occurs Wednesday into Thursday with afternoon temps on Thursday topping out in the upper 90s to even low 100s in some locations. By Friday, heat risk becomes a factor for locations in northern portions of the CWA as hot temps persist into the weekend. Some subtropical moisture will begin moving northward and as a result, low end PoPs continue for Friday. With high temperatures reaching the upper 90s to low 100s, these storms could initially be dry and will bear watching. What remains to be seen is the impact of continued smoke dispersion from large wildfires in northern California. Currently, smoke is inhibiting visibility across northern Nevada with HRRR model runs suggesting an increase in smoke coverage overnight tonight and into Sunday. This may persist into the coming work week and if so, attention will need to be directed towards potential forecast impacts. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions exist for southern terminals within the watch area until tomorrow morning. Temporary MVFR and potentially IFR conditions resulting from CA wildfire smoke for KWMC/KBAM/KEKO through today, tonight and tomorrow morning. By 12z models suggest more widespread coverage of smoke including KELY in the area prone to lower VIS/CIGs. Isolated -TSRA will be confined to portions of northeastern and east- central Nevada later this afternoon and evening though any storms that do build will diminish after sunset. Wind speeds will be SW-W10-15G30KT over all terminals, though convective wind gusts to 35KT are possible with any storm. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the eastern portions of the forecast area through this early evening. The main threat from storms will be gusty and erratic winds to 50 mph. Smoke and haze from neighboring wildfires will hamper visibility for the next several days. For tomorrow, southwest flow aloft will continue the drying trend with all areas seeing mostly sunny conditions though smoke will block out the sun at times. Look for elevated fire weather conditions across zone 425 on Monday as wind gusts will approach 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens. By Tuesday, look for a warming trend lasting through the work week as the upper ridge moves east. Friday may see moisture moving northward as the ridge sets up shop near the four-corners. Storms on Friday will generally be dry across zone 425 and 470. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86/99/99/86
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 It still remains somewhat unclear regarding the convective forecast for the remainder of the afternoon. The RAP seemed to have the best handle on the early morning convection, so that model was generally favored for the rest of this forecast. A glance at the upper levels of the atmosphere would suggest a nil convective forecast. A closed low at 250mb was slowly moving away from the region resulting in rising heights aloft and subsidence at the upper levels of the atmosphere. However, a short wave trough was noted at 700 and 500mb moving very slowly out of the central-southern Rockies. Overall, the forcing will be weak so it becomes difficult to rely on model QPF forecasts as it will change from run to run. Continued heating for the rest of the afternoon will further erode the already weak cap. Mixed layer instability values will top out around 1000-1500 J/kg by late this afternoon. And although the cap is not forecast to fully erode in the deeply mixed layer, it becomes weak enough to possibly allow convection. A low level theta-e axis is present extending from the Big Country northward into the eastern Texas Panhandle where convection is most favored. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer will support strong wind gusts with any storms that do develop but widespread severe is not anticipated. Storms are not expected to persist into the early morning hours on Sunday like what we saw earlier this morning. Rising heights from the upper ridge shifting eastward will keep convective chances low on Sunday. A strengthening surface cyclone in eastern Colorado will boost the surface pressure gradient and increase southerly winds. These winds will have more of a downslope component on Sunday afternoon compared to today. This will also result in an increase in temperatures to around five degrees above seasonal averages or so but shy of heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Heat is the main theme through the extended. Mid-level ridging is on track to build squarely over the region by Monday, then linger overhead through midweek as heights climb to 594 to 596 decameters. Thereafter, the center of the ridge will reamplify over the Intermountain West late week into next weekend. Although mid-level heights won`t change much locally despite the reorientation of the ridge, it will allow some monsoonal moisture to bend eastward a bit. The improved mid-level moisture, in conjuction with convergence along a surface trough, could allow low thunder chances to return to parts of the South Plain region as soon late Wednesday, though more likely not until Thursday and beyond. At this point, our northwestern zones (the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains) appear most favored for isolated convection late in the week. Regarding temperatures, triple digit highs are expected to prevail for most locations through this coming week, with spots off the Caprock potentially reaching advisory levels (105-109 degrees) at times. Temperatures should back off a few degrees toward the end of the extended, though will probably remain above average (i.e. hot). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all three terminals. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is located south of the CDS terminal and east of the LBB and PVW terminals as of 630 pm CDT/2330 UTC and is on track to remain outside of the three terminals airspace. There is a low chance of redevelopment at CDS but confidence is too low to include in the TAF. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, humid, and breezy through this afternoon, with heat indices in the 90s. - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for the second portion of Sunday and will continue into the first half Monday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible, mainly across western Minnesota. - Unsettled Summer pattern will bring the next chances for rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Regional radar depicts a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving through northeastern South Dakota. This cluster has developed along a stationary frontal boundary and is forecast to continue lifting to the northeast, following the mean wind into northeastern Minnesota. Extrapolation of this complex keeps the track northwest of Stevens, Douglas, and Todd counties this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/low 90s across much of south central Minnesota and western Wisconsin at this hour. The hot air temperatures combined with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s has produced heat indices in the 90s. Southerly flow has increased over the past few hours, with gusts between 20-25 mph now a common theme over much of south central Minnesota. The winds are forecast to remain breezy into this evening, which will continue to help make the heat and humidity feel a little less uncomfortable. Sunday will be very warm and humid, though air temperatures will finish about 3-5 degrees cooler than today. Despite the slight dip in the air temperatures, dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s will once again push heat indices into the low 90s. Turning attention to convective potential, much of the theme remains the same. CAMs are not overlay excited with the prospect of nocturnal convection across the Dakotas holding together into much of western MN, so we have trimmed slight chance PoPs quite a bit across the far western tier of counties through mid-morning Sunday. A surface low is forecast to move out east out of the Dakotas Sunday evening into Monday morning, which will serve as the main driver for widespread convection during that timeframe. A few of the CAMs try to initiate cells across western Minnesota Sunday morning/early afternoon. Should any of these cells develop, they would likely produce a brief period of locally heavy rain and perhaps an isolated strong wind gust, however weak shear will limit the severe potential during that timeframe. While there are differences among the CAMs with respect to timing, location, and even storm mode (clusters of storms versus a more organized complex), the trend remains that the second half of Sunday into Monday morning will serve as the period of the most widespread PoPs. Our latest forecast features 60-80% PoPs across west central Minnesota by late afternoon/early evening, which then shift east into the late evening. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe weather across south central Minnesota tomorrow, with just a sliver of far western Minnesota included in the Level 2 Slight Risk. Storms that develop ahead of the surface low across the Dakotas may become severe Sunday afternoon and will then track east into Minnesota, where a less favorable environment for the maintenance of storm intensity supports the lower severe probabilities at this time. Still, isolated to scattered instances of damaging wind and small hail will be possible, with a greater focus on the threat for locally heavy rain persisting well into the overnight hours. As noted by the previous shift, a southerly shift in the QPF axis has again been reflected in the 12z HREF suite. A widespread soaking 0.5- 1 inch of rain appears likely, with convectively driven amounts (and perhaps some training of storms) upwards of 2"+. Should storms train over the same location for multiple hours, a localized flash flood threat may develop. Showers and thunderstorms will drift east into western Wisconsin by early Monday morning, where renewed convection will be possible as a result of daytime heating. High pressure will build back in following the eastward departure of the surface front Monday afternoon, with the expectation that dry weather will then persist through Tuesday. Humidity sticks around through mid-week and highs will climb towards 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Guidance remains steady with additional convective chances by Wednesday and Thursday, as a few shortwaves ride along the northern periphery of a 590s dm Great Plains ridge. As noted by the overnight shift, the extended period appears increasingly uncertain, with the potential for more Great Lakes troughing/northwest flow into the Upper Midwest through the first period of August. Should this be the case, we may dodge yet another prolonged run of heat. NBM captures this with highs in the low to mid 80s by the end of next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 A few high clouds are expected tonight into Sunday morning. However, prevailing clouds should build in and lower to near 10000 feet from west to east Sunday afternoon as our next system approaches. Chances for -TSRA begin in western MN by early afternoon and spread east into eastern MN by early evening. Thus, have added PROB30s for -TSRA at most MN terminals with MVFR conditions possible. RAP forecast soundings and a few CAMs do show signals of elevated convection over western and central MN Sunday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. Southerly winds will hang around 10 knots with gusts to near 20 knots possible. KMSP...Included PROB30s for -TSRA as early as 21Z Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will increase thru Sunday evening, but confidence of exactly when storms will occur is too low at this time to go any higher than PROB30. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Chc -TSRA early. Wind S then NW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5 kts. WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Strus AVIATION...CTG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Expecting heating this afternoon to erode a weak cap across southeast Oklahoma resulting in a potential of an isolated thunderstorm or two only impacting a few counties in our far southeastern CWA. Abundant surface moisture remains in place while instability off the surface may be sufficient for short-lived pulse type convection although shear remains very weak for any cells to organize or become severe. Any convection that does develop late this afternoon across our southeast would be diurnally heat driven ending shortly after sundown. Meanwhile after sundown to our west, a mid-level shortwave embedded in the ridge over the Southwestern U.S. may be interacting with a surface trough just lee of the Colorado Rockies. Expecting a southerly low-level jet to fire up tonight across the Southern High Plains potentially transporting moisture into the mid-levels although confidence is low based on model inconsistencies if it will be sufficient to fuel convection on the Southern High Plains. Both NAM & ECMWF suggesting ample isentropic ascent of moisture on the 315 K surface through the mid- levels just east of the low-level jet across parts of our western CWA. Although latest HRRR & NBM not very excited about convection breaking out, a few other CAMs (mainly NAM Nest & HRW FV3) are suggesting it. As a result, will maintain 20% storm POPs across the western two-tier of counties in western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas for late this evening into early Sunday morning. Any storms that would develop tonight across our west would be elevated and with weak MUCAPE values would be below severe. For Sunday, a surface low over the Central High Plains will increase our south winds becoming windy by late morning across much of our western CWA to breezy across our remainder. Western Oklahoma and western north Texas could see afternoon gusts at 20-30 mph. Pressure heights start to rise as the upper ridge across our west starts building starting our "heating" trend a day earlier. Afternoon temperatures generally west of I-35 are expected to peak to or near triple digits (100-101 degrees) while to the east may heat to more seasonably normal (mid 90s). Fortunately surface moisture across our western CWA is slightly weaker (lower to mid 60s dewpoints) verses our eastern CWA while any moisture advection will be weak As a result, not expecting much of a heat index to impact our western CWA for tomorrow. One caveat for tomorrows temperatures as it is based on clear skies in the afternoon. Although could see some mid- level cloud cover during the morning hours, should it linger into the afternoon it could keep temperatures down. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 An upper ridge continues to build over the Southern High Plains as we get hotter with breezy south winds. Will see triple digit highs increase across our western and northern CWA on Monday with highs up to 105 degrees to upper 90s across central through southeast Oklahoma. Have fairly good confidence with the NBM surface moisture for at least Monday as its in fairly good agreement with the NAM & ECMWF, while the GFS is too dry biased. As a result, could see widespread heat indices between 105-110 degrees on Monday afternoon so can`t rule out at least a Heat Advisory across much of our area. However, NBM becomes hotter-biased from Tuesday on and perhaps too moist-biased with the surface moisture/dewpoints across the eastern half of our CWA on Tuesday. For the warm-biased highs, have trended with the slightly cooler NBM 50% percentile high temperatures. Still unseasonably hot with the current forecast for next week with heat indices in the 105-110 degree range but not confident of any seeing any excessive heating at this point. We stay under this heat dome through next weekend as the upper ridge builds nearly over at least the western 2/3 of the country. Only a remote chance for rain/storm late Wednesday along the northern fringe of our CWA. A shortwave in the mid-levels embedded in the ridge could result in storms across the Central Plains to near the Kansas/Oklahoma border on Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Some elevated showers and storms not out of the question overnight into Sunday morning across parts of central into northern Oklahoma, but currently chances remain too low to mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, most sites will remain VFR overnight and through the day tomorrow. Exception may be DUA where a period of MVFR ceilings appears possible late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds remain a bit stronger tonight and become quite breezy Sunday with gusts around 25kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 72 95 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 72 99 76 102 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 99 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 100 75 106 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 71 97 76 102 / 10 20 0 0 Durant OK 71 95 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows an approaching H5 shortwave trough currently situated over NRN Nevada with radar showing isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms continuing across extreme SE Idaho. As this trough moves into SRN Idaho later today tapping into some monsoon moisture from the Great Basin, scattered thunderstorms remain favored to develop with the HREF model probability of thunder showing a 30-80% chance of thunder across our entire region. The convective environment today will support 500-800 J/kg of SBCAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE, 20-35 kts of 0-6 km shear, and 7-9 degree/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will remain conducive for stronger storms that will be capable of producing wind gusts to 40-60 mph, heavy rain, and small hail. Given PWATs in that 0.50-0.80" range, we will also see a mix of wet and dry storms given a drier airmass in place at the surface. Activity will decrease after sunset tonight but cannot rule out continued isolated showers and storms overnight in the mountains, primarily in the CNTRL Mountains. Highs today will be in the 70s and 80s, seasonably cool for late July. For Sunday, that aforementioned H5 shortwave trough will continue its progression NE into Montana and Wyoming supporting another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for this activity will shift to being across the Upper Snake Plain and along the Montana and Wyoming border regions as conditions remain predominantly dry elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will remain very similar to Saturday in the 70s and 80s. Wildfire smoke will continue to impact air quality and visibility at times through the weekend with the HRRR smoke and satellite imagery this afternoon showing improving conditions across ERN Idaho. This improvement looks to be short-lived however as more wildfire smoke builds back in tonight into Sunday associated with several large wildfires to our west. MacKay .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday. Expect breezy southwest flow aloft to continue on Monday bringing afternoon gusty conditions. No showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday. Temperatures look to rise slightly above normal on Monday. Tuesday into Wednesday models show a weak wave move through the area bringing breezy winds and mostly isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures look to drop down to normal to slightly below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Late Wednesday into Saturday high pressure builds back into the area. Expect a heat wave with dry and hot conditions Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. There is high confidence of heat with model clusters lining up well. Plus, the ECMWF model Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) has values of 0.7 to 0.8 showing moderate to high confidence of heat returning as well. Temperatures will gradually get warmer each day and will run 6 to 10 degrees above normal with lower elevations in the mid to upper 90s. A few areas may hit 100 degrees on Friday with more lower elevations likely hitting 100 degrees by Saturday. Wyatt && .AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday. This afternoon expect thunderstorm impacts for all sites with a trough moving through southwest flow aloft. Gusty outflow winds of around up to 35 to 50 mph are likely with thunderstorm passage by 2 pm for Burley and 3 to 4 pm for PIH and 4 to 5 pm for IDA and 6 to 7 pm for KDIJ. Gusts up to 60 mph are possible, especially for KBYI. Thunderstorms on station will likely bring brief MVFR/VFR conditions. Visibility will be slightly degraded for KBYI and KSUN early this afternoon and will improve with showers and thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon. The HRRR smoke model shows some light visibility degradation from smoke for all TAFS sites later tonight into early morning as winds drop off. Not currently expected to have MVFR visibility at this point but could occur, especially for KSUN and KPIH. Wyatt && .FIRE WEATHER... Another system rolls in from the Pacific today with RED FLAG WARNING in effect until 2200 for all fire weather zones outside of FWZ 422 for a mix of scattered wet and dry thunderstorms. Stronger storms will support gusty outflow winds in that 40-60 mph range, heavy rain, and frequent lightning but given PWATs around that 0.50-0.80" range, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms will also exist. Following this systems exit to our NE on Sunday, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue Saturday night into Sunday as best chances shift north and east. Conditions remain marginal for a scattered thunderstorms RFW tomorrow so have held off for the time being. Synoptic winds this weekend will be breezy each afternoon outside of convection with gusts to around 20-35 mph and minimum RHs in the teens and 20s across our lower elevations. High pressure begins to build into early next week ahead of a H5 trough passing over the NRN Rockies on Tuesday. As a result, conditions will remain dry on Monday with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the CNTRL Mountains and along the Montana border region. Outside of isolated thunderstorms, the primary focus will be on elevated winds peaking each afternoon which will support near critical to critical fire weather conditions given RHs in the teens and 20s which may support addition RFWs. Following the exit of that trough for Wednesday, a H5 ridge axis will shift overhead and lead to a warming trend through next weekend as conditions return to being very dry. MacKay && .AIR QUALITY... Air Quality has improved slightly this afternoon due to instability helping bring showers and thunderstorms. Air quality will continue to improve this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms continue. Air Quality Alerts are in effect for much of eastern Idaho, relayed from our partners at the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (ID DEQ). Any air quality improvements will likely only be temporary, however, as there is no shortage of upstream smoke production from the wildfires in OR, ID, and CA. Expect continued degraded air quality on Sunday with less confidence heading into early next week. TAX/Wyatt && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-413- 425-427-475-476. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
950 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms across the area continue through this evening. Gusty winds 40 to 50+ mph are the main hazard, though some brief heavy rain is also possible. - For Sunday, rain chances are mainly over the northern half of the area, while the southern area becomes drier, with marginal elevated fire weather concerns. - Warm and dry will be the story for the upcoming workweek, with elevated to critical fire weather.&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 A shortwave is making its way through the state today. Showers and thunderstorms began early for southwest Wyoming this morning, and is moving northeastward through the state this early afternoon. Like yesterday, everywhere will have a shot at seeing rain today, with peak chances (15% to 60%) occurring through this afternoon. Models continue to struggle resolving the constancy and agreement with location and timing of convection this afternoon and evening. Models are showing a couple distinct rounds of storms moving through the area, however. The first was the morning rain, followed by some afternoon convection chances, and then finally the potential for an evening (6pm MDT to little after midnight) push. Again, models have disagreement on locations of showers/storms, with some models not having any convection at times other models do. Overall, the main concerns this afternoon and evening will be with gusty winds. Outflow gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible. The HRRR continues to show 50+ mph gusts with some storms. It also has a push of stronger convection (cluster of storms) this evening move across roughly from Lincoln County, through the Green River Basin, and over the Wind River Mountains into the Wind River Basin. It has gusts 60 mph, with some previous ruins showing up to 70 mph. Other models are not showing this feature, so this will be something to watch today, if anything does develop. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has roughly the southern two-thirds of the area in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk today. If some models verify, precipitation could continue a bit past midnight, with maybe even a few showers making it through Sunday morning. For Sunday, a ridge begins to build in. This should limit the afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances (10% to 60%) to the northern half of the area, with the best chances over the mountains. Sunday also has some concern when it comes to fire weather. With drier air moving in, the southern half of the area could see afternoon relative humidities (RH) drop to around 15% in some locations. A southwest to west wind of 20 to 35 mph occurs across the Wind Corridor during the afternoon. The ridge continues to build for Monday. Overall dry and warm conditions make a return. Temperatures will be a little above normal, with widespread afternoon RHs 10% to 12%. Afternoon gusts 20 to 35 mph return fire weather concerns. Monday through Wednesday will be very similar when it comes to fire weather- widespread low RHs and gusty afternoon winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be in place, and highlights are looking likely (90%). The ridge looks to continue to build for the entire workweek, with favoring for warmer and drier than normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 949 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Smoke continues to be advected in the area from the west/southwest, so some VIS reduction is possible (30-40%) at times through the TAF period, but should not drop below 6SM. A line of thunderstorms with outflow wind is moving through southwest WY this evening and will continue to head east into tonight. It will weaken as it travels eastward, so KBPI and KPNA are the only terminals that will be impacted. Lingering rain showers are also near KCOD and may impact the terminal at times from 06-10Z tonight. Wind will be stronger Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph for most terminals through the afternoon hours. More isolated convection will develop Sunday afternoon, so have included PROB30 groups at the terminals where the best chance of thunderstorms exists. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Marginal fire concerns for Sunday. Zones 277, 279, 280, and 289 will have areas of RHs near 15% during the afternoon. Gusts 20 to 30 mph also occur during the afternoon, with gusts closer to 35 mph for Zone 289. Given the worst conditions over Zone 289, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday afternoon. Widespread RHs around 10% Monday through Wednesday, with afternoon gusts generally 20 to 30 mph Monday and Tuesday. Elevated fire weather conditions are looking likely (90%) these days. Thursday and Friday will continue to be dry, but winds may be less. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ001>013. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ289. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...Rowe FIRE WEATHER...Wittmann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Sat Jul 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend and into next week with the main threats being heavy rainfall with isolated strong wind gusts. Localized flash flooding will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... In the upper levels, a ridge axis was placed from southeastern Arizona into southern Colorado, while a jet streak was crossing south-central California through Utah. GOES-West water vapor imagery showed evidence of favorable convective placement this afternoon in southern and eastern areas of southeastern Arizona, with drier mid-level air and less synoptic support further northwest. This keeps Tucson on the edge of the better convective probabilities, with chances increasing south towards Nogales and east towards Safford, Douglas, and the New Mexico border. As of time of discussion, convection has been well under way across areas of Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties. Moderate instability, slow storm motions, and decently moist mid- levels will allow for the threat of heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding, especially as these slow moving thunderstorms sit over locations vulnerable to excessive rain. Though not the primary threat, enough mid-level dry air has moved in to allow for an isolated strong to severe wind gust under any thunderstorm. Coverage this evening will rapidly diminish with sunset. A few high-res models such as the HRRR and UofA WRF produce a batch of early Sunday morning showers, which seems reasonable as some instability aloft should remain and the fact hat showers/thunderstorms were observed early this morning. Tomorrow, the upper high shifts east a bit and mean flow over southeastern Arizona becomes southerly. This will bring another day of likely active monsoon weather, this time better oriented to potentially bring thunderstorms into the Tucson metro. Forecast chances are fairly widespread, maximized from Santa Cruz through Cochise counties where initiation should happen first. Heavy rainfall and isolated strong wind gusts remain the primary threats. Looking through next week, the upper level high should remain centered east of the region, keeping southerly flow over southeastern Arizona and daily chances for some sort of coverage of thunderstorms. With the above normal height anomalies, daily high temperatures should generally remain above normal. && .AVIATION... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through 28/02Z near KOLS-KDUG and up north through KSAD, with a slight chance of one near KTUS. Very heavy rainfall and isolated gusty outflow winds to 45 kts near any thunderstorm today. Otherwise winds generally under 12kts this afternoon and becoming light tonight. Chances for thunderstorms expected again Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with day to day variability on which areas will see the best chance of rainfall. Each day has the threat of heavy rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Minimum relative humidities will be 20 to 30 percent in most lower elevation locations and 25 to 40 percent in mountain areas. Away from thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds overnight. As high pressure builds mid-week, high temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative humidities should fall by a few percentage points. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
708 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather is expected area wide through the beginning of the week with temperatures trending closer to seasonal normals. High pressure will begin to build back into the Four Corners later in the week with temperatures rising and monsoonal moisture creeping back into Northwest Arizona. && .UPDATE...Dense smoke plume from the Borel Fire, and less extent the Trout Fire in Kern and Tulare Counties is advancing eastward over southern Nye County and western Clark Counties currently. Similar to last night, this plume will impact the air quality and possibly produce a reduction in surface visibility not only in Clark, southern Nye Counties, but Lincoln County as well. Those with severe respiratory illness are recommended to stay indoors and keep windows and doors shut. In other weather news, trough across the PacNW/northern Rockies will keep the ridge shunted well off to our southeast. This will produce a southwest flow, keeping the region dry, breezy with near normal temperatures into the middle of next week. Issue that remains is that southwest flow transporting additional smoke into the area for the foreseeable future. Finally, will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire on schedule at 8 pm PDT. Will update the smoke/haze grids based on the latest 00Z HRRR-Smoke. && .PREV DISCUSSION...220 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .SHORT TERM...through Monday. Surface visibility has improved across the region this afternoon thanks to breezy conditions and a deepening mixing layer helping to clear the smoke from the lower elevations. However, regional air quality remains poor and additional smoke plumes are seen developing across the south Sierra and Tehachapis this afternoon. HRRR guidance continues to favor this smoke spreading east this afternoon and evening, with a fairly large concentration of smoke expected across southern Inyo, Nye, Lincoln, and northern Clark counties by late this evening. The upper level flow pattern will change little through Monday, with southwesterly flow aloft favoring smoke advection into our northern and central forecast area through Monday afternoon. Aside from the smoke, breezy conditions can be expected daily, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, with temperatures near seasonal normals for late July. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. Weak lingering troughing in the Pacific Northwest will begin to wash out early next week, allowing for our Four Corner high to rebuild by late in the week. This will encourage a warming trend midweek and beyond and allow for a slow return of monsoonal moisture to the region. PoPs through Saturday are mainly confined to Northwest Arizona, but may spread west to include parts of the Mojave Desert as well. Otherwise, hot temperatures will return under the ridge, with the lower deserts/Colorado River Valley locations back in the 110-115 degree range and Death Valley NP back above 120 degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds with occasional gusts to around 25kts will continue this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight tonight, with winds falling below 10kts before daybreak. Smoke from fires over southern California will continue to move across the area through the weekend. While no significant reduction in surface visibilities is expected through this evening, slantwise visibilities may fall below 7SM at times. The latest HRRR smoke guidance does show a more concentrated smoke plume moving across the valley after 6Z. Visibilities less than 7SM have been added for the overnight period, and periods of less than 6SM will be possible, especially across the northern half of the valley. Otherwise, no operationally significant cloud cover is expected through Sunday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California... South to west winds with occasional gusts to 25kts will continue at most regional TAF sites today and again on Sunday. Smoke from fires over southern California will continue to move across portions of the region through Sunday. The latest HRRR smoke guidance shows a more concentrated plume developing this evening and spreading across northern San Bernardino, central and southern Inyo, southern Nye, and northern Clark counties. Surface visibilities in these areas may fall below 5SM at times overnight. While some overall improvement is expected Sunday, southerly winds may push some smoke into the Owens Valley by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, no operationally significant cloud cover is expected through Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather continues through this evening across Northwest Arizona where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8pm MST for the combination of strong winds and low RH. Elsewhere, dry and gusty conditions prevail but slightly weaker winds are resulting in elevated but non critical fire danger. Gusty and dry weather will continue into early next week with wind speeds gradually easing. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Pierce DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter