Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/22/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1059 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog may recur late tonight into early Monday morning, with better chances of occurrence in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa. - Seasonable temperatures and largely diurnal showers and storms are possible through Wednesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Tonight: Potential Fog While fog was not as extensive spatially as forecast last night, OLZ/CCY/AUM/TOB in SE MN/NE IA all experienced fog for several hours, with OLZ/CCY seeing quarter mile or less visibility for 4-6 hours. Temperatures and dewpoints are similar to what was seen yesterday except the mid 60s dewpoints are more extensive, suggesting more of the area will see fog tonight. Have therefore placed fog in the forecast for most of the CWA once again. This Afternoon through Wednesday: Seasonable Temperatures, Diurnal Convection 19z WV satellite shows a slow moving MCS, which traversed the NW CWA slowly over the past 12 hours, in south central MN. Residual anvil clouds are present over the NW CWA with this largely suppressing the development of cumulus. Farther south, agitated cumulus has developed with a few showers/storms present in Clayton/Grant Counties. This afternoon, expect a few showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the southeastern CWA, but a rogue bit of convection could occur farther northwest nearer to sunset. Either way, with little in the way of low level convergence, expect coverage to be limited. With little flow through column, do not expect severe storms but a localized area or two of heavy rain could occur given slow storm motions. Monday, convection should once again occur as a weak upper disturbance arrives from the NW late in the afternoon. However, low level convergence remains lacking. Therefore, think the end result will be similar to Saturday and Sunday - some convection will occur but not to the coverage suggested by coarser scale models and NBM PoP output. Indeed, extended CAM runs suggest only spotty coverage. Have therefore ensured all areas get a mention of precip but strove to limit to a slight chance (under 25%) where possible. Given continued weak winds through the troposphere, the main potential hazard aside from lightning remains the same as Sunday - highly localized heavy rain. Monday night into Tuesday, upper support ticks upward as an upper trough slides southeastward. While this should lead to an increase in coverage, best convergence along the associated surface front appears likely to occur after peak afternoon heating, once again leaving us with issues getting parcels freely buoyant. Indeed, what extended CAMs exist out through Tuesday afternoon suggest spotty coverage once again. Have thus attempted to tamp down the 80% NBM PoPs during the afternoon but have kept things solidly in the likely (55-70%) category. The slight increase in deep shear to around 20 knots suggests a strong storm could develop but the probability for a severe thunderstorm remains low. Wednesday, with the main body of the trough overhead bringing cool conditions aloft, can`t rule out a stray shower or storm as peak surface heating occurs. Wednesday through Saturday, heights aloft build as the northwest flow finally abates. Expect temperatures to trend back to the mid to upper 80s with scant chance for precip. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Fog will be the main aviation concern for the region overnight and into the morning hours. The forecast remains somewhat challenging with mid-level clouds once again being the primary concern. Model soundings have suggested some saturation at 850mb which with ambient lift from the departing upper-level wave may be enough to develop some mid-level clouds. Otherwise, would expect areas that remain clear to fog up with falling dewpoint depressions. At KRST, have decided to introduce an IFR group with the recent 22.02z RAP soundings suggesting a drier 850mb layer throughout the night. Will have to monitor the area for possible LIFR reductions if fog can reside at any particular location for the entire early morning period. As we head past sunrise, any fog will quickly disperse leading to VFR conditions with sct to bkn mid-level clouds possible throughout the day. Winds will remain light and variable through much of the morning before shifting to southwesterly by mid-morning. As an incoming trough approaches our region on Monday evening, a few showers and storms may be possible. However, confidence remains low in exact timing for when these will move in. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ferguson AVIATION...Naylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
957 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through Monday. The threat for severe weather remains low. - Smoke aloft from distant wildfires will be found at least through Monday and possibly longer. Patchy near-surface smoke is possible, especially in north central North Dakota through tonight. - High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s through Monday, while temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees are expected mid to late week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Showers and storms have all but diminished, with the exception of one little thunderstorm hanging on over southern Kidder county. This storm will continue to drift/build west on outflow until it runs out of fuel (which should be fairly soon). For this update, we also decided to add mention of patchy fog to the forecast for much of western and central North Dakota overnight per many of the CAMs (and a similar pattern to previous nights). Additionally, we are starting to see some lower visibility readings due to an increase in near surface smoke across portions of the north and west. Thus we may have to increase the spatial area of smoke coverage in the gridded forecast in future updates if these trends continue. UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 No major changes were needed for this update. Most of the showers and thunderstorms are currently located over southern portions of the James River Valley. There are a couple of showers over the southwest as well, but this activity has been on a weakening trend. All of this activity should diminish with the loss of diurnal heating. Smoke aloft from distant wildfires will continue to lead to a hazy sky. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 This afternoon, very broad surface high pressure was centered over Ontario, with a weak low pressure analyzed in west central North Dakota. Northerly flow aloft continued from the influence of a potent upper ridge extending into Alberta, while a deep low was off the coast of British Columbia. A few embedded shortwaves were moving through the meridional flow, with isolated thunderstorms ongoing in the southern James River Valley area, as well as in southwest North Dakota. It`s another day of plentiful instability but very low deep-layer shear, so expecting another round of pulse-type thunderstorms that could occasionally produce small hail and gusty winds. This looks to be limited to the southern part of the forecast area through early evening. The non-supercell tornado parameter is elevated in the southern James River Valley, so we cannot rule out a brief, weak funnel. The northerly flow is also bringing a thick swath of wildfire smoke into the region, with some near- surface smoke primarily across northern North Dakota. We are keeping the mention of near- surface smoke through tonight only in the north, but could occasionally see reduced visibilities elsewhere, especially if fog begins mixing in. The latest HRRR smoke forecast has higher smoke concentrations moving in later tomorrow so this mention will likely need to be extended. Precipitation chances (20-40%) return early Monday morning in the north central and east, persisting through the day as a back door cold front drifts down from the Canadian Prairies. Deterministic guidance is advertising slightly more shear (25 knots) overlapping with modest instability levels, so wouldn`t be surprised if a few stronger storms can develop, especially in the north central part of the state. Highs on Monday will again be in the 80s. The main forecast concern this week is hot temperatures returning as the previously mentioned upper ridge shifts east. Ensemble clusters show the ridge will be moving across the Dakotas in the middle to end of the work week, with areas in western North Dakota having their hottest days on Wednesday-Thursday, while the eastern portion of the forecast area will likely be hottest on Friday. The expectation is for highs from the lower 80s east to mid 90s west on Wednesday, before highs in the upper 90s to around 100 in western North Dakota on Thursday. The ridge axis will shift further east on Friday, dropping highs back into the mid 90s southwest, while the James River Valley will see its hottest temperatures of the week in the lower 90s. As the upper trough pushes east and flattens the ridge, blended precipitation chances emerge to end the week as a deep trough and closed low move through the Canadian Prairies. The latest ECMWF EFI paints a more notable overlap of instability and shear well north of the International Border as the upper low swings through Saskatchewan and Manitoba. CSU machine learning continues to paint widespread but low potential for severe weather across the forecast area starting on Friday and continuing through the weekend. With the flow pattern aloft shifting to become more broadly zonal and less amplified, there is increasing confidence in cooler temperatures late in the weekend and into next week, with highs generally back to the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. However, some near surface smoke may impact our northern sites at times tonight with KMOT being the most likely. An isolated shower or thunderstorm at any one particular site is not likely the evening or Monday afternoon, but not impossible. Winds may become gusty and erratic in the vicinity of any storms. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
807 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Front Range and I-25 corridor through this evening, with the heavy rainfall threat decreasing. - Temperatures look to be above seasonal normals Wednesday into next weekend. - Increased rainfall chances for Friday through Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Scattered showers and storms were moving across the plains with most activity south of a Foprt Collins to Fort Morgan to Akron line. This activity will continue moving southward thru the evening with most of it ending over srn areas by midnight. Otherwise, a lot of smoke has moved into the area with very hazy skies. This will continue thru Monday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 As expected, poorly organized convection has continued to develop over the past couple of hours. A few stronger embedded storms across the higher elevations have produced briefly heavy rain, but have largely missed the more sensitive burn areas. Scattered showers and storms should continue through the evening hours. Most of the DEN-FNL-GXY area is still unstable, with recent ACARS soundings from DEN showing roughly 1000 J/kg of CAPE with PWAT near an inch. It appears likely that some of the convection across southeastern Wyoming will eventually drift into our forecast area by the evening. Still, it doesn`t look like this will be nearly as intense as yesterday evening`s I-25 corridor event... but if you`ve got outdoor plans, keep an eye out! The overall synoptic pattern won`t change significantly tomorrow, but the airmass is expected to gradually dry out. Temperatures should return to the 80s across the lower elevations, but the drier air should limit overall instability. At least isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast across the higher elevations, with generally <20% chances across the plains. The other story for tonight/Monday will be a return of wildfire smoke. GeoColor satellite imagery shows a broad plume of smoke across the northern Great Plains, and HRRR smoke forecasts show this reaching the Denver metro late tonight or early tomorrow morning... continuing through most of the day. Most of this smoke is concentrated well above the surface, but a modest increase in near-surface smoke is possible during the day. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 The high amplitude upper ridge to the west of the CWA begins to push slowly eastward on Tuesday. Models show the ridge axis to get into the CWA by late Thursday and Thursday night. The flow aloft will be northerly for the CWA through the period with weak synoptic scale subsidence. Moisture is lacking over the plains through the period, with limited amounts for the mountains. CAPE is limited as well. Models continue to show some alpine convection during the late day periods, with very little to nothing on the plains. Will leave the 10-40% late day high mountain pops going Monday evening, late day Tuesday and late day Wednesday. Decent rainfall amounts are not expected. For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs look to be right around seasonal normals, then Wednesday`s warm up 1-4 C from Tuesday`s. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models now show the upper ridge right over the CWA Thursday through Friday night. They also show the upper trough moving eastward well north of the CWA on Saturday and Sunday to be a bit weaker than yesterday`s models indicated. It doesn`t flatten the upper ridge down like it did on yesterday`s runs either. The models are still indicating better moisture and increased convection for Friday through Sunday, with even "scattered" coverage over a good portion of the plains. We will see. Temperatures are progged to stay above seasonal normals all four days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/... Issued at 510 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Outflow boundary moved across which switched winds to SSW. There is still a chc of a few storms moving across from 01z to 03z but confidence level is low. For now have left a tempo group thru 03z. After 03z should see tstm chances diminish with basically drainage winds overnight. On Mon, it should be dry with VFR conditions. Winds will become NNE by midday and then more ENE by late aftn. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Heavy rain/flash flooding concerns will slowly diminish through this evening, as instability wanes. Ongoing storms are producing heavy rain for brief periods at a time, with one gauge in Glen Haven recording 0.24" in 5 minutes. However, storms have had just enough storm motion and generally haven`t persisted for long. A continued diminishing trend is anticipated as the ongoing convection washes out the modest instability. Moisture decreases further on Monday, but there should be at least widely scattered storms across the higher elevations with a limited threat of burn area flash flooding. There is little concern for Tuesday through Thursday under a hot/dry airmass. Eventually better moisture should return as we approach next weekend, but this is too far out to discuss in detail. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM....RJK AVIATION...RPK HYDROLOGY....Hiris/RJK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
642 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 The upper-level ridge will remain over the western US through the short term, as a positively tilted upper-level trough continues to move across the central to northeastern US. At the surface a weak stationary front running across Central Texas will remain in place through the period. Ample moisture, diurnal instability, and weak forcing along the seabreeze could support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. PWAT values remain near to above 2 inches for much of the region through the period, which could support locally heavy showers. Low temperatures tonight are expected to fall into the upper 70s to low 80s across the region. High temperatures Monday afternoon are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices are expected to peak around 108, remaining below Heat Advisory thresholds. Low temperatures Monday night are again expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 -Key Message: Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible this week. Low severe weather threat. Low tropical weather threat. Confidence for beneficial rains this week remains consistent and above average. A favorable setup for rain will persist, fueled by ample Gulf moisture. PWAT values will push above two inches Tuesday through Friday. Severe weather is generally not in the cards, and the region is in a general thunderstorm outlook area for Tuesday, with the potential too low after Tuesday right now for any outlook category. WPC places deep South Texas and the RGV in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for days 3 through 5, or Tuesday through Thursday. Operation Border Health Preparedness will be underway this week, and rainy weather may impact access to resource sites across the area. On the large scale, the center of mid-level ridging will retreat to over the Golden State (California). Meanwhile, large scale mid- level troughing from East Canada southwest to the Southern High Plains will supply upper instability and provide a pathway for moisture to funnel from the Gulf northeast across East Texas and over the Gulf States and toward the mid-Atlantic region. Ridging and high pressure will remain stolid over the Gulf. The lack of surface boundary forcing through much of the long term will mute boundary layer rooted deep convection. Total deterministic (50%) rainfall amounts summed up through Friday reflect some areas along the RG getting 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, while most other areas are looking at 2 to 3 inches. With ample tropical moisture stoking the atmosphere, heavy tstorms may occur, producing a quick one to two inches and nuisance flooding such as ponding on roadways and flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Additional rounds over the same area in a short period could result in two to three inch totals and potentially more serious flooding. Given the persistent nature of the models regarding this event, later forecasted rainfall totals may increase. High temperatures will trend lower during the week. Lower to mid 90s may occur on Tuesday but that may be a bit generous for the rest of the week, which could more commonly see upper 80s to lower 90s. We do not see heat advisory conditions. Low temperatures are generally expected to be in the 70s with a few places getting close to 80 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Tranquil conditions will prevail through the overnight hours, with convection ending and skies clearing. For Monday, a TEMPO has been added for BRO and HRL for convection based on the HRRR model. Breezy winds and partly cloudy skies will also occur with VFR in effect. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Tonight through Monday night...Broad high pressure will remain situated across the Northern Gulf, supporting light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds along the Lower Texas Coast. Slight seas are expected to persist through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the period, with locally higher winds and seas possible in and around some of these storms. Tuesday through Friday night...High pressure across the Gulf will support light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas. We do not expect small craft advisory conditions. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop from time to time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 91 / 10 40 30 70 HARLINGEN 77 94 75 91 / 10 30 20 70 MCALLEN 80 97 79 94 / 30 30 10 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 97 76 94 / 20 30 10 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 80 88 / 20 30 40 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 91 77 90 / 10 30 30 70 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
510 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and storms will diminish early this evening. Storm coverage decreases tomorrow as drier air moves in. - Near normal temperatures today and tomorrow heat up mid week as drier air moves in. - Monsoonal moisture looks to return Friday and heading into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Here we go again. Yet another day with scattered showers and storms. The deepest moisture remains down south which is where the convection has fired again today. Hi-res models were also showing an uptick over the northern mountains and along the Divide and this is also being borne out according to radar. Forecast PWATs of .75 inches for SE Utah and SW Colorado remains the same while lesser amounts up north also remain in the forecast. Plenty of instability can also be found in those same areas with anywhere from 400 to 800 J/kg with lesser amounts elsewhere. We`re certainly tapping into this instability as ground ob reports are showing around 0.5 inches of rain falling in around 30 minutes. Pea to dime sized hail has also been reported under the stronger cells. The HRRR has been performing well recently and the latest run is showing this convection continuing through around 7PM before shifting south and east. The NAMNEST is onboard with this solution as well so we should see this convection slowly wind down in the early evening hours. Overnight, might see a stray shower over the San Juans but not expecting much. Tomorrow, following the HRRR and NAMNEST leads, should be a down day. PWATs across almost the entire CWA will be around 0.4 inches except for the southern valleys where 0.6 to 0.8 inches remains. If there will be any convection, that should be the spot. Having said that, wouldn`t be surprised to see a bit more convection than advertised as daytime heating allows a few cells to form. We shall see. The NBM has put a larger swath of ~ 20% PoPs for SE Utah and SW Co with 40 to 60% chance PoPs for the San Juans. This seems very reasonable so will make no changes there. Temperatures will remain near normal through the short term, give or take. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 The area of high pressure will be centered to our west Tuesday and Wednesday while troughing continues to dominate the central and eastern CONUS. Additional dry air will filter into the region, allowing PWATs to gradually diminish back to slightly below normal area-wide by Wednesday. As a result, look for fewer showers and storms each day and warmer temperatures. Even so, enough residual moisture paired with daytime heating and orographics will lead to at least isolated convection over the mountains both days. Gusty winds will be the primary concern but brief heavy rain can`t be ruled out. Late Wednesday and Thursday will see a trough of low pressure drop south from the Gulf of Alaska and push into the Pacific Northwest. This will weaken the ridge and deflect its axis to the northeast as the trough nudges further inland. The trough`s base will dig into the far Northern Rockies Thursday night and into Friday, brushing our northern zones in response. Guidance is pretty adamant that this will bring nocturnal showers and perhaps some storms Thursday night with widespread activity expected on Friday as the trough passes. The breaking down of the ridge and arrival of the trough will lead to an uptick in moisture across the region as we get back to that tap of the monsoon with PWATs projected to return to 140 to 160 percent of normal by Friday evening. As the atmosphere begins to saturate once more we can expect gusty outflows to become less likely compared to those heavier rains. We`ll have to see how this event plays out but, regardless, a return to cooler and more unsettled weather looks increasingly likely for late in the week. The wetter pattern continues going into the weekend as yet another trough begins to elongate off the West Coast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 508 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Most of the showers have come to an end. A few outflows may keep the winds gusty for the next few hours. Showers and storms are expected again tomorrow afternoon. Although given the coverage KDRO and KGUC might be the only taf sites that have a chance to get a shower. Those chances were low enough not to include in the taf. Gusty winds may be possible around any showers tomorrow. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...MMS AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
754 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday evening, with low chances of severe. - Warmer and drier conditions forecast for the mid to latter part of next week, with low chances for precipitation at the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 746 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Haze from wildfire smoke will continue through at least mid day Monday before exiting north to south. As for rain chances tonight; guidance has been hinting at showers and storms continuing through at least 09Z mainly for locales along and west of the Highway 27 corridor. Persistent new updrafts across Nebraska have thus far been able to survive and are nearing the northern portion of Dundy county. Am watching an outflow boundary currently in central Nebraska that may be able to initiate new cells or briefly intensify ongoing cells assuming it is able to make it into the CWA. Severe weather is not anticipated but gusty winds, torrential rainfall and perhaps some small hail would be common the strongest of updrafts. Interesting and subtle setup for showers and storms Monday. RAP/NAM both show an 850mb FGEN boundary draped from Kit Carson through Sherman and arcing up through Red Willow county. RAP also shows a 700mb disturbance (perhaps an MCV) from South Dakota working its way into the NC KANSAS/ SC Nebraska vicinity through the day which should act as another source of lift for storms. Any severe weather threat looks low as shear is forecast to be around 10-15 knots and mid level lapse rates of 6-6.5C. Thinking that very heavy rain and lighting will be the primary threats with PWATS of 1.3-1.5. The strongest storms should be able to produce some gusty winds and perhaps some hail around penny size. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Across the region this afternoon skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Winds are meandering around east-northeasterly up to 10- 15 mph at times. Main wx concerns will focus on rw/trw chances this afternoon and evening and again Monday/Monday evening. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is showing amplified ridging over the western portion of the country, with a broad open trough the Plains and points east. The result is a northerly flow aloft with a shortwave moving south through east-central Colorado. There is a weak inverted surface trough pushing into east-southeast Colorado, and combined with the shortwave pushing into the area, are creating scattered rw/trw mainly west of the CWA. There have been a few isolated showers that developed in western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties but collapse as they move away from the surface trough. The latest HRRR/NamNest are showing the best chances for any convection through about 03z-04z Monday w/ the focus in Colorado and maybe into the immediate adjacent areas near the CO/KS border. Have put in a 15-20% chance for this tapering westward through 04z Monday. Our CWA is currently not outlooked from SPC, so any storms that should occur will have brief sub-severe gusts and brief downpours, and even some small hail. Going into Monday, the wx focus shifts to the aforementioned surface trough that now pushes into western Kansas. Similar conditions aloft with another weak shortwave traversing the area Monday afternoon. Looking for a 20-30% chance for rw/trw to occur before tapering to a 20% chance Monday evening. The surface flow becoming more E/SE as the day progresses will allow for an increase in low level moisture, and with soundings showing inverted-v profiles around 18z-21z, low SBCape 400-500j/kg, thinking any storms will be slight wind makers with some locally heavy rainfall before they taper Monday evening. High pressure and dry conditions sets up going into Tuesday as the upper ridge begins a trek eastward. For temps, highs in the short term period will see an upward trend with Monday seeing a range in the lower to mid 80s, but giving way to a range on Tuesday from the upper 80s west into the lower 90s east. Lows each night will range from the upper 50s west into the lower 60s east. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 The main wx focus in the extended period from the latest GFS/ECMWF focuses on the movement of a strong amplified 500mb ridge. This feature pushes slowly eastward during this time. Models do differ some on the placement late week as a strong upper trough swings into the Pacific Northwest and into the north central Rockies. Current guidance has this making a more easterly trek than digging into the Rockies. The result of this will be limited precip potential, giving way to a warm up with near and above normal temperatures. There is a shortwave that works into the central Rockies late Friday, but has a hard time pushing east due to the ridge blocking its advancement. The system will have a 20-30% chance for rw/trw in Colorado Friday night before pushing into the western CWA with a 20- 40% chance of precip on Saturday. limited qpf from the latest NBM guidance and with hot temperatures expected area-wide, conditions will be similar to the past few weeks with any storms posing a wind threat as soundings showing DCape from the GFS around 18z-00z near the 1500-1700j/kg mark. For temps, highs across the region for the extended period will range in the 90s each day, with hottest numbers seen in areas east of Highway 25. Overnight lows will mainly range in the 60s area- wide, but late in the week, slightly warmer east of Highway 25 as some locales from Friday night onward could see lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 501 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 VFR conditions remain forecasted for each of the terminals for this period; however smoke aloft from Canadian fires will remain in the mid to upper levels throughout the night. Not expecting any reductions in visibility due to smoke at this time. North to south moving showers and storms will be the main focus for the next few hours with overall lower confidence on how far south they will survive and the magnitude of them. CAMS are a bit more optimistic that KMCK will have the better potential for rainfall around 08Z or so; will need to watch for any potential AMD for that. Showers and storms will again develop tomorrow as early as 17Z. Storms for tomorrow look to be more hit and miss so will go with VCTS until guidance agrees on the coverage. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
742 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through western and north central Nebraska late this afternoon and tonight. Although the risk of severe weather is low, some storms may produce small hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. - Hot weather will begin building into wrn Nebraska Wednesday and high temperatures in the 90s are expected across all of wrn and ncntl Nebraska Friday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 A weak UA disturbance across wrn SD this morning dropped into wrn Nebraska this afternoon setting off isolated ordinary thunderstorms. A second stronger disturbance across srn ND this morning is moving south through cntl SD this aftn and satellite shows a distinct circulation has formed. Satellite timing tools backed by the RAP model show this disturbance moving through ncntl Nebraska this evening and overnight. The disturbance will continue moving south tonight and then mostly east Monday. The POP forecast leans on the slower more generous SREF model for scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. The disturbance should be east of the area Monday evening. The risk of severe storms is low. Winds aloft at h500-300mb are weak at 20kts or less as is the moisture transport and theta-e advection below 700mb. Still, the MRMS indicates small hail is ongoing across SD and the Nebraska Panhandle from both disturbances. There is also the potential for locally heavy rainfall. PWAT in the RAP model is around 1.50 inches beneath the SD disturbance as it moves into and through cntl Nebraska tonight and Monday. The disturbance will be moving slowly south at about 15 kts but the weak moisture advections and low ambient PWAT, near 1.25 inches, would seem to suggest low, but not zero, potential for a heavy rainfall center of a few inches tonight. It will be interesting to see if the system can tighten up and become better organized across ncntl Nebraska tonight. Attention turns to the elevated smoke circulating south from the fires across Canada. The smoke forecast from the RAP model shows this smoke throughout the cntl and nrn Plains for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the GFS shows north winds aloft Tuesday continuing to steer smoke through Nebraska. A shift in wind direction from the northwest is expected Wednesday which might push the smoke east of Nebraska. For simplicity, sky coverage has been adjusted up to 30-40 percent tonight through Monday night. The 00z KLBF sounding Saturday evening showed a mixing height to just 750mb. H850mb temperatures will be used as a proxy for max temperatures Monday and the models suggest a very modest 1C degree rise in temperatures at that level. The temperature forecast Monday uses the short term model blend plus bias correction for highs in the low to mid 80s. This forecast is close to the NBM 50th percentile. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Heat will build into wrn/ncntl Nebraska Wednesday through Sunday with high temperatures rising into the 90s across all of the region by Friday and lasting through the weekend. The models are in good agreement dropping a fairly deep upper level low through the Canadian provinces. This will cause the upper level ridge across the wrn U.S. to flatten and build east through the central Plains. By next weekend temperatures at h700mb across wrn Nebraska should rise to 12C-15C with sfc low pressure across Manitoba and the Dakotas. This well supports highs in the 90s across wrn/ncntl Nebraska. Isolated to low-end chance POPs are in place Friday through Sunday. This rain chance is associated with an approaching cold front across the nrn Plains but it`s worth noting both the morning runs of the ECM and GFS show no storm development across wrn/ncntl Nebraska. This makes the thunderstorm forecast next weekend speculative. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 735 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through Monday. Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue through this evening but should tend to dissipate after midnight. Winds will be light except variable and gusty near any storm. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
722 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers and thunderstorms from as early as Monday afternoon to as late as late Wednesday across the area. No severe weather is expected. -High pressure and dry weather return to the forecast Thursday through Saturday along with a warming trend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure is centered over Lake Superior this afternoon with light northerly Lake breeze flow the primary wind direction across the U.P. While the center of the surface ridge may nudge a little bit eastward through the night tonight winds will remain light and variable under mainly clear skies. Low temperatures last night fell below the lowest available guidance across the interior west with even a few upper 30s lows. Will undercut by a degree or two the lowest guidance for tonight especially across the interior east as that area will be right under the ridge axis. Otherwise...lows will fall into the 50s closer to the lakeshores and in the far west where light southerly return flow and some higher clouds will arrive towards morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 354 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Weak high pressure of 1018-1020 mb leaves Lake Superior Monday morning as a weak trough of 1014-1015 mb drops down from around Lake Winnipeg to Minnesota throughout the day. Because of this, expect a battle between the lake breezes by the afternoon hours over the east (with the Lake Michigan lake breeze probably/70-80% chance of moving further inland than the Lake Superior one), while scattered rain showers and thunderstorms look to move over the west half. Initially, expect Monday to start out fairly similar to today, with mostly sunny skies; high temperatures even look to be similar in comparison to today`s, albeit a few degrees warmer. The main difference comes in the afternoon when the aforementioned shortwave begins firing off convection in the western U.P. around noon Central Time with the assistance of diurnal heating. While there is plenty of instability to work with over the interior areas, with little forcing and lack-luster shearing overhead, no severe weather is expected. The showers and thunderstorms continue into the rest of the U.P. Monday night into Tuesday morning as the shortwave low becomes better organized and deepens to 1012-1015 mb. Uncertainty still remains on rainfall totals and even rain chances Monday afternoon through Tuesday as guidance as a whole has trended the shortwave low deepening earlier and further to the northwest (near us) in comparison to yesterday; so far, the European ensemble and deterministic models are the most aggressive with rainfall amounts, with the ECMWF EFI highlighting QPF amounts well above modeled climatology, with a third of the models hinting at rainfall amounts in the 10th percentile of modeled climatology (shift-to-tails of 0). In addition, the LREF shows a 10-30% chance of 1 inch or greater of rainfall Monday night through Tuesday across most of the area, although much of this is due to the inclusion on the European model suite. Meanwhile, other model guidance systems, including many of the CAMs, have backed-off on rainfall totals and chances Monday through Tuesday, with the WRF-ARW, NSSL, FV3, and HRRR keeping the highest precipitation chances over Lake Superior and just to our south in Wisconsin. Therefore, while there is signal for a soaking rainfall, there is also the possibility that we will only see light scattered showers and storms early to mid this week. Also, expect no severe weather Monday night through Tuesday as well given the cloud cover and the bulk shear being fairly marginal (around 30 knots). If you were missing the lake-effect precipitation this summer, you could be in `luck`, as inversion temperatures just may be cool enough to get delta-Ts to around 13C right behind the main line of precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday. With some upslope northerly flow to help out, we could see some lake-effect drizzle/light rain showers over the north wind lake-effect belts Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given the marginal delta-Ts, only a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall are expected with these showers. As high pressure pushes in from the west earlier than previously expected, model guidance as a whole generally shows the rainfall ending from west to east Wednesday, first the main line precipitation followed by the lake-effect rainfall. Expect mostly clear skies by Wednesday evening. High pressure ridging dominates the latter half of the extended period as the high pressure block over the Southwestern U.S. finally brings ridging over the Upper Midwest the rest of this week into at least the middle of this weekend. As the ridging moves through and we get on its backside, expect warming temperatures from Thursday onwards; temperatures could get up to 90F in the downslopes near Lake Superior this weekend as surface flow picks up from the south/southwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 721 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Clear and calm conditions are expected for a majority of the 00z TAF period as high pressure will dominate the UP through the night and most of the day Monday. A weak shortwave moving into western Lake Superior Monday evening could kick up some showers and a possible thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening hours in the west half near IWD and CMX, but confidence in overall coverage is low. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure over Lake Superior will keep lake winds 20 knots or less the rest of today through Monday, until a cool front dropping down from Canada increases winds from the northeast over the west half Monday night into Tuesday; winds could gust between 20 and 25 knots throughout the day Tuesday. Behind the cool front, expect the winds to slowly lighten, becoming 20 knots or less again by Tuesday evening; the light winds look to remain through the rest of this week as ridging begins building in from the west. As for t-storm chances this week, we could see some storms as early as Monday over the far western lake as a weak 1014-1015 mb shortwave low drops down from Lake Winnipeg to Minnesota ahead of the cool front. As the shortwave deepens and becomes better organized Monday night into Tuesday near the U.P. (possibly due to interacting the cool front), the thunderstorm chances move east with time and generally become more confined to the southern Lake Superior shoreline; the thunderstorm chances look to end over the far eastern lake Tuesday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...BW MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
143 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring hot weather for inland areas through the middle of the week with a shallow marine layer closer to the coast. Triple digit heat will be common for deserts and portions of the Inland Empire, while low clouds and fog are expected each night and morning near the coast and adjacent valleys. Monsoonal moisture will increase over the coming days with mountains and deserts seeing a chance of storms each afternoon through Wednesday. Drier and slightly cooler air is expected to come into the picture by later in the week as the ridge of high pressure weakens. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Cumulus clouds are beginning grow across portions of the northern mountain areas this afternoon as monsoonal moisture increases across the region. This pattern will continue over the next few days. For today, areas near Big Bear into northern adjacent deserts have a slight chance of storm activity, per latest HRRR and WRF guidance. Flow around the high becomes better organized to let in greater amounts of moisture from the south by Monday and Tuesday, where greater chances spreading to most mountain and desert locations. The highest chance for storm formation will be on Tuesday, slightly lower Wednesday. Storms may cause heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Otherwise, the heat will remain for inland areas through the middle of the week. As monsoonal moisture increases, so will the humidity! Use caution if outdoors for long periods this week and drink plenty of fluids. The marine layer depth will remain quite unchanged through the middle of the week, with clouds and fog impacting ares within 15-20 miles from the coast each night and morning. This will also continue to help moderate temperatures with highs in the 70s and 80s. The ridge of high pressure over the region will begin to break down by Thursday and Friday, where global models indicate the potential for a weak trough to develop. This would bring slight cooling and drier weather to the region. Highs for inland areas look to drop near average with western valleys seeing below average readings by next weekend. && .AVIATION... 211953...Coast/Valleys...BKN low clouds over the coastal waters and locally onshore with bases 700-1100 ft MSL with VIS 5 SM expected at the coast. After about 22/07Z this evening BKN low clouds re- developing and moving inland with similar bases, tops and visibilities to just west of KONT by 22/13Z. Local visibilities inland 1-3 miles. Confidence in KSAN TAF low cloud forecast of low cloud return around 22/06Z is MDT-HIGH. Mountains/Deserts...15 percent chance of iso TSRA mainly in the San Bernardino mtns, with less than 10 percent chance in the Riverside/San Diego mtns 21Z Sun-00Z Mon. Lightning and erratic winds possible near TSRA. SCT Cu expected over the mtn with bases to 15000 ft MSL. Periods of FEW-SCT high clouds in the deserts, with unrestricted VIS. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday. && .BEACHES... High tides may produce minor tidal overflow at susceptible low lying beach parking lots and boardwalks. High tide Sunday night is expected to peak at 6.8 ft at 9:45 PM. High tides will gradually lower through the middle of the week. .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys. Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts- San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Small
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
939 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazy skies through at least Monday night - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Monday afternoon - Increasingly hot/dry Tuesday through Friday with elevated to critical fire weather developing && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 20z surface analysis had weak trough snaking across central MT to central SD to northern MN. Water vapour loop portrayed upper ridge over the western CONUS and upper low over IL/IA. Northerly flow aloft over the CWA. Zooming in, weak shortwave/MCV (from eastern ND convection last night) drifting south/southwest supporting a small gently pinwheeling cluster of TSRA over central SD. Outflow from this feature interacting with surface trough east of the Black Hills producing isolated TSRA. Last area of focused convection is at the southern end of the Black Hills per convergence courtesy of northeasterly boundary layer flow. SPC mesoanalysis depicts 1-1.5KJ/kg MLCAPE over western SD this afternoon, which will continue to fuel isolated/scattered convection. Shear weak with outflow dominated storms evident per KUDX radar loop. Persistent thunderstorms over the southern Black Hills could pose a threat for flooding this afternoon, but otherwise organized convection unlikely through this evening. Concern then turns toward upper ridge for the rest of the week. Tonight/Monday, isolated/scattered thunderstorms through this evening wane overnight and then redevelop Monday afternoon. Shear sufficient for organized convection low. Temperatures will be near guidance, except perhaps for highs Monday when smoke aloft per HRRR integrated smoke guidance continues. Tuesday through Thursday, upper ridge expands into the northern Plains promoting thermal ridge over the CWA. Smoke aloft may linger into Tuesday, but ridge should shield the area for the middle of the week. While a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through Thursday afternoon, chances are unmentionable. High-based thunderstorms could develop Thursday evening over northeastern Wyoming. Gusty winds may develop during peak insolation, particularly Thursday, but chances for gusts greater than 25 MPH relatively low at this time. Friday, upper ridge strength decreases as it flops into the eastern CONUS allowing an upper trough to scoot across southern Canada. Feature should push a "cold" front through the CWA Friday with thunderstorm chances lasting into next weekend under southwest flow aloft. LREF chances for 100F+ temperatures 30-70% across northeastern WY/far western SD Thursday and 30-50% east of the Black Hills Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 937 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Isolated thunderstorms in southwest SD will dissipate around midnight. Brief MVFR conditions in stronger storms. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will redevelop Monday afternoon. Hazy skies will continue through the period, with local MVFR visibilities possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 210 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 An upper level ridge will bring hot and dry conditions Tuesday through Friday. As the upper ridge breaks down Friday, a cold front will slip into the area. There is considerable uncertainty with the cold front timing. The pre-frontal environment will see temperatures in the 90s to around 100 and very low relative humidities. LREF is giving 70-90% probability of relative humidity lower than 15% across northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota Thursday afternoon. The pattern also favors some windy areas which would result in critical fire weather conditions Thursday for parts of the area, and perhaps dry lightning over northeastern Wyoming Thursday evening. Elevated/near critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday with the higher winds mainly east of the Black Hills. Relative humidity recovery Wednesday and Thursday night will be poor over the higher terrain of the Black Hills and northeastern Wyoming. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson AVIATION...Johnson FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
825 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to meander across the Desert Southwest, resulting in diurnal rounds of showers and thunderstorms, and a continuation of extreme heat. This pattern looks to hold through the majority of the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will gradually wane into the late evening and overnight hours. Activity has generally underperformed compared to what many of the convective-allowing models would suggest. The latest hi-res ensembles are a bit closer to what is currently transpiring, showing widely scattered activity struggling to persist much beyond about 11pm to midnight. Still, a low probability of a few showers and a stray storm will persist through the next few hours, mainly across the Las Vegas Valley and portions of Mohave County in Arizona. The main consideration from any storms has been gusty outflow winds as storms collapse within a deeply mixed and hot environment. At times, wind gusts have exceeded 40 mph, though the potential for strong downdrafts will generally diminish as daytime heating is lost further into the evening. Once activity ends, expect another very warm night with lows generally in the 80s and 90s most areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday. Convection expected again this afternoon across the region. PWATs range from 0.75 to 1.25" across the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave Desert this afternoon, though instability is limited with a 500 mb area of high pressure directly overhead. Instability will rely on daytime heating with a convective temperature in Las Vegas at 113 and orographic lift with storms favoring the higher terrain. Storms that form in southern Nevada and southwestern Utah will likely kick out strong outflow winds between 30 and 40 mph with over 2000 J/kg of DCAPE. HRRR runs have been consistent since 24 hours ago in showing an outflow from afternoon storms in southern Nevada pushing southward and riding the northerly steering flow into eastern San Bernardino County and southwestern Mohave County this evening. Convection is expected to form along this outflow as the air moves into a region of CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg and PWATs approaching 1.50". SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms in the southern Colorado River Valley surrounding Needles and Lake Havasu City to reinforce this forecast. PWATs will range from 100 to 200 percent of average across the region through the week, which will return chances of precipitation to the forecast area each afternoon through Friday. Friday through the weekend, there is good agreement that the area will dry out with the approach of an upper-level trough that will effectively squash the monsoonal high overhead. ECMWF ensemble members show a stark drop in PWATs between Thursday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. In addition to moisture, above-average temperatures will persist through the work week. There is an Excessive Heat Warning out for the Mojave Desert including Las Vegas, Mesquite, Pahrump, Laughlin, Lake Havasu City, Kingman, Barstow, and Death Valley that originally went through 9pm tonight. However, this Excessive Heat Warning has just been extended through Wednesday at 11pm for all aforementioned locations. Morning low temperatures will flirt with daily records across all climate sites (for more details, see the CLIMATE section below), which will result in minimal relief. Additionally, monsoonal moisture in place will result in hot and muggy conditions - rather than hot and dry. Despite temperatures being cooler than experienced a few weeks ago when several climate sites across our forecast area observed all-time hot temperatures, it is likely that conditions this week will feel worse due to the increased humidity. Moisture allows the air to retain heat for longer, which also means that shaded locations will provide less relief than normal. HeatRisk values are likely to underestimate this heat wave, as humidity is not directly taken into account during the calculation. It is important to take frequent breaks in air conditioning and drink plenty of water and electrolytes. There remains high confidence in an upper-level trough dropping from the Pacific Northwest late-week into the weekend, which will work to squash our monsoonal high. Temperatures will moderate and dry conditions will return to the region. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light easterly components should become southwest around 23-00Z this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms building over the mountains to the north of the Las Vegas Valley late this afternoon and evening may move to the south and impact the terminal area with gusty northeast and erratic winds between 02Z and 05Z. Thunderstorm potential will diminish after 05z with loss of daytime heating and once storm influences abate, winds will revert to light overnight southwest components and easterly components during late Monday morning into the afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely develop again over the mountains west and north of the terminal area Monday afternoon with the potential for erratic outflow late in the afternoon and evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon/evening, bringing erratic winds, heavy rains and lightning. The Las Vegas Valley airports and Lower Colorado River Valley sites from IFP to EED and HII may see gusty and erratic winds from thunderstorms between 02Z and 06Z this evening as storms move toward the south. Showers and thunderstorms near KBIH and KDAG could also impact those areas with gusty and erratic winds between 00Z and 03Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Austin AVIATION...Salmen For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter