Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/14/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
654 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rounds of storms this afternoon through Monday night. Some
storms will be strong to severe this afternoon through tonight
with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Large hail
and heavy rain are also possible. Isolated strong storms are
possible Sunday with increasing probabilities for strong to
severe storms on Monday.
- Hot and humid conditions continue this weekend with highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s. Widespread heat indices in the
middle to upper 90s with some areas reaching 100 on Sunday.
- Cooler and drier conditions beginning Tuesday and into much of
the upcoming week with high temperatures as low as the middle
to upper 70s by the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Storms, Some Severe This Afternoon Through Tonight:
As we continue through the afternoon and evening, a messy interplay
of subtle mesoscale thermodynamic features and lifting mechanisms
will need to be monitored closely. While the overall conceptual
model for today remains vaguely similar with the thermal ridge
trying to build in leading to a developing cap. The wrinkle being
thrown into this is the convective system throughout the morning and
afternoon that pushed through northern portions of the region
earlier this morning which leaves some questions for how much
instability has been worked over and if any outflow propagation
could mitigate the capping we could see later this afternoon and
evening leading to some different potential scenarios.
With the convection spreading through portions of north-central WI
and initiating across portions of MN, observing a fairly worked over
atmosphere in these areas leading to relatively limited instability.
This in combination with the increasing 700mb temperatures further
southwest will setup a fairly sharp MUCAPE gradient later this
evening shown in the 13.15z RAP. With this in place, some of the
CAMs would suggest a cluster of storms to be able to develop with a
very weak nose of 850mb moisture transport (the 13.12z HRRR and
ARW are good examples of this). With roughly 25-40 kts of bulk
shear and fairly robust MLCAPE (2000-4000 J/kg) present in the
13.15z RAP, would think in this scenario that storm mode would
take on a multi-cell, perhaps supercellular configuration as it
progresses through with mainly a damaging wind and large hail
threat. Would not be able to completely rule out an isolated
tornado with some low-level curvature in the KRST 13.17z RAP
sounding if this scenario unfolds. The 13.12z ARW family really
likes to portray this scenario as well with little development
of an MCS later tonight with the shortwave passage, likely due
to convective contamination upstream. Not ruling out that the
previously forecasted MCS would still manifest in this scenario.
However, with downstream convection messing with overall
thermodynamics, would have serious implications for this
overnight MCS potential as it would have minimal instability to
work with. Either way, will need watch this convection over MN
closely over the next few hours as the CAMs all disagree with
how to handle it.
Another possibility, is more development of the thermal ridge
leading to the previously mentioned capping inversion further
through the local area, similar to previous forecast iterations.
Looking at 700mb temps in the 07.12z HREF would suggest keeping the
10-12 C temps southwest of the I-94 corridor. This can be shown with
the current probabilities for 10 C temps or greater along the I-90
corridor of 40 to 70%. Additionally, will need to watch how much
instability manages to entrain itself across this region with fairly
substantial contamination has occurred from ongoing convection across
northern WI. Assuming that enough instability is present, damaging
wind gusts would be the primary threat with an organized MCS pushing
through roughly the I-94 corridor tonight with lower confidence in
it organizing further southwest. The degree to which the cap builds
in would determine the southwestern extent of this MCS overnight.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1" would be expected with this
MCS with locally as high as 2-3" possible per the 13.12z HREF
ensemble max for QPF through Sunday morning. However, with the
progressive nature of these storms would expect any flooding
concerns to be very isolated.
The key takeaways from all of this would be that much of how the cap
and convection early in day affected it will determine how
convection will manifest later this evening and into the overnight.
Two scenarios are present with an MCS overnight within the vicinity
of the I-94 corridor being one possibility. However, uncertainty
remains in exactly how far northeast the cap develops through the
evening and overnight and if instability has been mitigated due to
earlier convection. Additionally, will need to be vigilant for a
secondary scenario with severe storms this evening if any outflow
boundaries from ongoing convection in central MN can manifest
anything. Damaging wind gusts will be a threat with both scenarios
but large hail cannot be ruled out with any quasi-discrete
convection when also considering mid-level lapse rates of around
7C/km.
Additional Storms, A Few Strong to Severe into Monday:
Sunday continues to trend more on the conditional side for any
severe weather with the aforementioned cap firmly in place during
the morning. With the lack of any shortwave energy, the main forcing
mechanism for any convection during the day on Sunday would be
residual outflow boundaries from prior convection overnight
Saturday. While the cap does try to erode towards peak heating,
would say that you are less likely to have any residual outflow
boundary later into the day with the MCV associated with tonight`s
convection well south and east. Overall would anticipate with the
stronger cap earlier in the day and lack of forcing later into the
day would enable a drier trend but will hold onto some precipitation
chances (15-30% chance) when considering how much instability will
be present (4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 13.15z RAP), not much
would be needed to initiate convection.
Further potential for strong to severe storms are possible Monday
and Monday night as additional pieces of weak shortwave energy push
through the region during the afternoon/evening hours dragging a
surface cold front along with it. Instability ahead of the boundary
looks fairly solid with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and more
robust shear profiles relative to this weekend in the 13.12z NAM
which would be fairly favorable for more organized severe storms
along this boundary. With the cap still a question as shown earlier
in the day in the 13.12z NAM but does try to erode by mid-day.
Consequently, the SPC has a Slight Risk (Threat level 2 of 5) for
their day 3 outlook to address this potential.
Heat Continues Through Monday:
With the aforementioned warmer air aloft building overnight and into
Sunday, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft coupled with
south/southwesterly surface flow will allow temperatures to trend
above normal for the weekend and Monday. Sunday likely will trend
warmer than today with 13.13z NBM having a 25th to 75th percentile
spread for highs at La Crosse of 90 to 94 degrees. With southerly
flow helping aid dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s on Sunday,
pretty good consensus that heat indices will near 100 degrees for
some locations for Sunday. Could still see some storms on Sunday
with any residual outflow boundaries that may be present so still
some potential for temperatures to remain cooler if storms develop,
but overall would expect temperatures to trend warmer in either
case. Saturday and Monday will likely trend warmer as well however,
with convection around probably will trend slightly cooler but still
above normal with heat indices in the 90s for most.
Drier, Cooler by Tuesday Through The End of the Week:
As we head into Tuesday, northerly flow will help aid in cooler air
to be advected into our region behind a cold front that progresses
through our region aided by a shortwave late Monday. Consequently, t
he 13.00z grand ensemble (GEFS/EC ensemble/Canadian ensemble)
generally trend temperatures below normal, having an inter-quartile
range of 72 to 77 degrees for highs on Wednesday at La Crosse with
similar degree of confidence throughout the rest of the week.
Additionally, as a surface high pressure pushes into the region mid-
week shown in the 13.12z GFS/EC/NAM, would expect minimal
precipitation chances from Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Ongoing strong to severe storms extend through much of the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. Both TAF sites (KLSE/KRST) have and
will be impacted over the next few hours. Isolated severe storm
situated near KRST has had a slow storm motion so have kept TS
till 05Z. Subsequent storms expected overnight. Limited
confidence for storms. If they do form, expect a northwest to
southeast motion late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
711 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon will
diminish this evening for a quiet, yet mild and foggy night. Hot
temperatures up to the lower 90s are once again expected Sunday
through Tuesday along with increasing humidity, before a cold front
on Wednesday brings another round of rainfall to the region.
Following the frontal passage, a return of cooler and less humid air
is expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 704 PM EDT Saturday...Best forcing associated with weak
short wave energy has shifted east of our fa, along with highest
concentration of showers with embedded rumbles. Going fcst has
this trend covered very well with clearing skies anticipated
with building 1020mb high pres. These clearing skies wl result
in areas of dense fog, especially northern Dacks and valleys of
central/northern VT, including the NEK and CT River Valley. All
covered well with no changes needed.
Previous discussion below:
A modest mid-level shortwave passing north of the Canadian
border combined with our continued humid airmass was enough to
spark some showers and thunderstorms off the lake breeze this
morning which drifted into Vermont and intensified to just below
severe limits earlier this afternoon. As of writing this,
lightning has become much more isolated to nearly none, but
scattered showers continue to shift eastward through eastern
Vermont. This activity should continue east of the region while
waning through sunset and a quiet yet muggy night is expected
thereafter. Fog is once again likely in the favored river
valleys after midnight through sunrise, and lows will be similar
to last night ranging through the 60s with locally some
mid/upper 50s in the Adirondacks.
For Sunday, a weak ridge aloft and surface high pressure will keep
the region dry. A very isolated shower can`t be ruled out, but the
chance of that is 10% or less and not worth worrying about. 925mb
temps will once again be on the rise to neat +23C so widespread
highs in the mid to upper 80s is likely with some lower 90s
possible, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley.
Dewpoints will be slightly lower than today in the upper 50s to mid
60s so heat indices won`t be in the dangerous category. Of additional
note will be the chance for some Canadian wildfire smoke to be aloft
towards evening based on the latest HRRR forecast. No pollutants are
expected at the ground, but may make for an interesting sunset.
Finally for Sunday night, another weak to moderate shortwave is
progged to move into the eastern Great Lakes increasing the chance
for showers across northern New York after midnight. Elsewhere the
night should be dry with increasing clouds leading to lows warmer
than the previous night in the mid 60s to around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...The Champlain and Connecticut River
Valleys could very well be in the middle of a heatwave by Monday.
Models have been very consistent placing a strong high pressure over
New England, with 850 temperatures reaching up to 25c on Monday.
Humidity levels will exasperate the problem, leading to a concerning
situation in terms of heat risk. We are also tracking the chance of
showers or thunderstorms. The thermodynamic profile is favorable for
development, but we will lack the shear required to truly allow for
severe storm development.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Our heat will peak on Tuesday, with
temperatures climbing an addition degree or two with dewpoints at or
above 70 in many locations, this combination would push heat index
values above 95F and reach advisory criteria. Tuesday is also more
favorable for thunderstorms than the previous days as our shear
profile increases.
By Wednesday afternoon, we will get our long awaited cold front,
knocking 10F off our temperatures. A line of showers will sweep by
along with the front, with pwats up near 1.75" these storms will be
efficient rain makers and we are under a marginal ERO for the day.
The good news is the storms will move by quickly, and we`ll be a
week removed from the recent flooding giving the soils and rivers
some time to recover. Following the cold front, our temperatures
will inch back up but we should have a very pleasant weekend in
store.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Aviation challenge is areal coverage of
fog/br and timing the development. Highest probability (70-80%)
of fog with LIFR/VLIFR is at SLK/MPV btwn 06-11z Sunday. Used
tempo groups to indicate developing fog/br btwn 03/04z and
05/06z, before transitioning to prevailing groups. Given
rainfall today at PBG and some fog last night, feel intervals of
fog is possible (30-40%) at PBG overnight, with slightly higher
confidence in IFR and fog at EFK. Elsewhere, <30% confidence in
fog development so have not placed in tafs attm. Winds are
light and variable overnight into Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
549 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very hot temperatures will continue through Monday. Heat
Advisories remain in effect for the High Plains along and east
of I-25.
- Increased precipitation chances and cooler temperatures are
expected late Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Hot and breezy for some areas this afternoon. Seeing critical
fire weather conditions over the south Laramie Range and western
Laramie County. Getting wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph over the
Summit at Pumpkin Vine...Vedauwoo...the UPR sites and Summit.
For western Laramie County...Cheyenne is hitting as well as Bear
Creek and Otto. Will keep current RFWs going as they are. For
Converse and Niobrara Counties...humidities are finally starting
to get down near critical and wind gusts are up near 20 mph.
Still have time for these two zones to verify.
HRRR and RAP simulated radar showing isolated storms developing
this afternoon and continuing through mid evening. Can`t really
rule out isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening...so followed their guidance on timing/locations. High
based storms will likely create wind gusts to 60 mph across the
Panhandle. Have forecast DCAPEs up near 1500-1700 J/KG...so a
few severe wind gusts are possible. SPC has a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms over the Panhandle this afternoon/evening.
Increasing PWATs Sunday should lead to a greater coverage of
convection Sunday afternoon/evening. These storms will once
again be high based. Mid crew may want to consider fire weather
headlines for dry thunderstorms for Sunday with these high based
storms.
Finally get a good surge of monsoonal moisture Monday with
PWATS over an inch in the Panhandle and near .9 inch here at
Cheyenne. Continued high PoPs for Monday afternoon and evening
where we could see storms producing moderate to heavy rainfall.
Forecast soundings showing long skinny CAPE profiles indicating
heavy rainfall. Forecast storm motions are in the 20-30 kt
range...but if we get training storms...then flash flooding
could become an issue.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Unsettled weather is expected in the long term forecast, with the
next upper level feature centering itself across the Four Corners by
the early morning hours on Tuesday and persisting through the
remainder of the period. Before the onset of an emerging Omega Block
pattern, strong moisture return and several shortwave disturbances
propagating within the flow will result in numerous storms to
develop across the region on Tuesday afternoon and evening. PWATs
continue to look good, with values ranging from 0.75 to 0.92 inches
and hovering around the 75th to 90th percentiles for this time of
year. Some locally higher PWATs anomalies are currently in the
forecast with upwards of 1.20 inches possible for the far counties
in the Nebraska Panhandle that will need to be monitored through the
weekend and into the early portions of next week.
For Wednesday and onward, Deterministic and Ensemble model guidance
has remained consistent over the last few days, with good model
agreement and placing an Omega Blocking pattern just slightly off
centered across the CONUS. As a result, should see the dome of high
pressure become much more cemented in place and stretching across
the Four Corners and into the Western Seaboard. Storm chances still
continue throughout the week, as shortwave disturbances continue to
undercut the main ridge. However, due to the positioning of the
blocking pattern, will not see the stronger moisture as will
possibly be observed on Tuesday. Nevertheless, will need to continue
to monitor thunderstorm potentials the throughout the week,
especially for the Nebraska Panhandle where better atmospheric
dynamics will likely be present.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024
A few isolated high-based showers are moving through the area
this evening, and may bring localized gusty winds to terminals
over the next 1-3 hours. Otherwise, good aviation conditions
through the night and Sunday morning, before another round of
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms develops early Sunday
afternoon. This activity may be a little more widespread than
the last few days.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Heat Advisory until 8 AM MDT Monday for WYZ101-102-107-108-118-
119.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417-418-
429-430.
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Monday for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
644 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM this evening for the
counties roughly along and south of I-80 for peak heat indices
of 100 to 105 F.
- The heat continues for Sunday and Monday with peak heat
indices between 100 to 110 F.
- Organized thunderstorms are possible late tonight with a
cluster of storms moving in from the north/northwest. This
could bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Additional rounds
of scattered storms are possible Sunday and Monday.
- Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi
River with most sites crested or cresting in the coming days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Late This afternoon through Tonight:
SPC mesoanalysis had a mid-level vorticity max over
Minnesota/Wisconsin with a southwesterly LLJ to the south
across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. Warm air advection
on the nose of the 850mb jet has kicked off a few scattered
showers and storms across the far eastern portion of the area,
mainly from near Freeport down toward Princeton. Much of this
activity should shift to the east of the area by the late
afternoon hours. Heading into late this evening and the
overnight, confidence remains low on the potential for
convection. Latest HRRR runs hold the organized storms well to
our north across Minnesota and Wisconsin, while the NAMnest
drops a line of storms in from the north after midnight. Will
maintain 20-40% chances in the forecast through the overnight,
highest across the NE portion of outlook area. If storms do
manage to drop southeastward into the local area tonight, the
primary threats would be strong winds and frequent lightning.
Moderate MUCAPE and modest deep layer shear would be supportive
of strong to severe storms, which is in line with SPC`s Slight
Risk across the north and northeast, and Marginal Risk to the
south.
Sunday:
Low chances for showers and storms will continue through the
day with potential for scattered strong to severe storms
developing during the late afternoon and evening. Confidence is
low on this late PM development; however with a very unstable
air mass due to the hot/humid conditions, presence of any low-
level outflow boundaries, and potential for a mid- level wave to
roll west to east across the area, the threat for at least
scattered strong/severe storms will have to be monitored
closely. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast, with
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Heat indices are forecast in
the upper 90s to near 105 degrees (highest south of I-80).
Through early next week, 850mb temperatures are forecast to be
24 to 27C, which is strongly supportive of excessive heat.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
The hot weather will continue on Monday with chances for
scattered showers and storms as a cold front gradually drops in
from the north. Models continue to show a strong EML, but the
frontal position could serve to erode that with time, especially
after dark. The ample CAPE over 3000 J/KG would support strong
storms, as would the increasing shear from the westerly flow
aloft. For now, pops are in the 30-60% range by Monday night.
Tuesday is a transition day into the far cooler air in the
extended. Highs will be rather warm, but with decreasing
humidity and gusty winds, the heat stress will be decreasing
through the day.
Wednesday though Saturday continue to look very pleasant, with highs
in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 50s!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
VFR conditions are forecast through the period. A prob30 group
was placed in the TAFs for both KDBQ and KMLI between 9 and 13z
on Sunday for a potential line of thunderstorms that is forecast
to sink southward across the area during the morning. MVFR
visibilities are possible with this line of storms as it sinks
southward. Winds will turn to the southwest after 15z Sunday
with speeds of 10 to 20 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 938 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
The crest on the Mississippi River is now between Keithsburg,
IL and Gladstone, IL (L/D 18). Upstream of New Boston (L/D 17)
river levels continue to fall. New Boston and Keithsburg are
just starting to show signs of falling. As the broad crest
continues to attenuate, areas from Gladstone downstream to
Gregory Landing should begin a very broad crest over the next
day or two.
Tributary Rivers:
On the lower Cedar River near Conesville, IA, minor flooding
continues. Over the next 24 to 36 hours the flooding is forecast
to end.
The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA will remain in
moderate flood through mid-day Sunday before falling into minor
flood. A fairly rapid drop in water levels will commence Sunday
afternoon and night as backwater effects from the Mississippi
River decrease.
Minor flooding continues on the lower Iowa River at Oakville due
to backwater effects from the Mississippi. With the broad crest
on the Mississippi now just south of Keithsburg, IL, water
levels on the lower Iowa River will slowly fall to and then
remain around flood stage over the next four days.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ063>065-067-
068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ015-016-
024>026-034-035.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
134 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON UPDATE:
A corridor extending from the Glasgow area southeastward toward
Glendive was upgraded to an Enhanced area of severe weather by the
SPC earlier this morning. Given morning CAMS mostly showing
similar solutions to this afternoon`s convection, SPC felt
necessary to upgrade for the risk of large hail (in excess of 2
inches) and severe, damaging winds (possibly as high as 90 mph).
For those present in and around Fort Peck Lake for the Gov Cup
Walleye Tournament, sudden and erratic wind direction/speed
changes are possible generally from a time range of 3pm to 6pm.
Afterward, most of the CAMS show a linear MCS forming from the
merging of previously discrete supercells. This appears to really
look more like a bowing structure as the storms approach the I-94
corridor. Plenty of hazards in play tonight. More info to come as
needed. Remain weather aware!
-Enriquez
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some
will become severe with damaging winds and large hail. Timing will
range around 2PM to 11PM over the bulk of northeast Montana.
2) Hot conditions will continue into the weekend with the heat
advisory extended in the far south into Saturday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Upper ridge will remain in place over the western half of the
CONUS for the next several days. A cold front will arrive Sunday
evening and drop temps off about 5-10 degrees through Wednesday.
Heat will be back in sway by late next week with 100s creeping
back in as the ridge to the west reestablishes itself.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
The heat advisory currently for the bottom third of counties for
Saturday has been left up due to momentum, but the cold air from
the thunderstorms outflow yesterday has backed temps off for
Saturday to a max of around 97 degrees which is probably too low
for it. In addition, there is a chance that widespread
thunderstorms in the early afternoon may produce enough cloud
coverage to take the impact edge off the highs as well. Will be
giving the day shift a chance to let it ride and the option to
cancel it early if things do not look to be going that way. While
Sunday does have temps reaching up to 100 degrees before the front
arrives that evening, there is cooler temperatures Saturday night
which will allow for some recovery in the heat risk. Therefore,
will be delaying issuing an extension for Sunday for now.
Keeping an eye to smoke models has allowed for some haze to sneak
into the area over the next couple days. Air quality only remains
moderate but will need to be monitored through the next several
days.
CAMs models for thunderstorms this afternoon have spread out the
area being affected toward the south by about a county and half
compared to 24 hours ago. They have also clumped the initiation
of the storms around Noon to an hour or two after. However, there
is an outlier in the HRRR which doesn`t bring storms through till
nearly 6PM. It looks like mesoscale details such as lingering
outflow boundaries from yesterday will be the deciding factor for
this afternoon and this is adding quite a bit of uncertainty to
timing and spatial placement of storms in addition to the strength
of the heat.
First 24 hours of PoPs were again updated to include a 50/50
blend of the SREF NPoP along with the NBM PPI01 in order to
capture the afternoon thunderstorms better with the marginal
threat for severe weather in the area. This bumped PoPs up from a
meager 20%-30% to nearly 60% around the most certain areas.
First 48 hours ended up getting a bump with the shrink stretch
tool over the CWA for afternoon highs and overnight lows, as
RTMA/URMA map passes are continuing to miss, skip, or average out
ASOS/AWOS highs by roughly 2 to 4 degrees and this is clearly
biasing baseline NBM downward compared to the reality of these 100
degree+ extremes which have occured over the last 2 days.
GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATE: 1930Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION and WINDS: Storms are again expected this afternoon
and evening. Initially, discrete supercells can be expected across
Phillips and Valley Counties. As the storms approach KGGW and
surrounding areas (3pm to 5pm), the main threat will be large hail
in excess of 2 inches and damaging winds. As the storm approaches
KSDY and KGDV, the outflow associated with these storms will
cause erratic and gusty winds possible in excess of 60 kt (5pm to
8pm). Winds after the storms will light and variable (after
midnight local time), becoming more NW`ly Sunday afternoon at 5 to
10kt.
DENSITY ALTITUDE: Afternoon highs could break 100 degrees in some
places through Sunday. This will make for less dense air and lead
to a need for increased power and longer runway takeoffs.
-Enriquez
&&
.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Garfield-Petroleum-
Prairie.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated strong to severe storms into early this evening with
another possible round of strong to severe thunderstorms
overnight tonight. Damaging winds are primary hazard. Smaller
chance of storms on Sunday, then additional strong to severe
storms on Monday as cold front crosses. Overall confidence on
details for the rounds of storms is low to medium.
- Warmer and more humid conditions through Monday. Heat index
values in the 90s are expected over central, east central and
parts of far northeast WI Sunday into Monday. Heat indices
could approach advisory criteria for a time in the afternoon
across the southern CWA on Sunday. Thunderstorm development and
clouds could also provide relief from the heat at times.
- Cooler and drier conditions expected mid-late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Sunday
Main forecast concerns will once again revolve around severe
weather potential for later this evening and overnight.
Unfortunately, most CAMs seemed to mishandle the MCV over
Minnesota as well as the concurrent line of elevated storms out
over western Wisconsin. A variety of different potential scenarios
will thus result in another low confidence forecast.
Convective trends... An elevated line of storms continued to ride
along a gradient of 850 mb moisture and mixed layer CAPE
throughout the early afternoon, although dry air intrusion and
slight capping kept it at bay as it moved east. What comes next is
still up in the air. Decent instability (~1,500 J/kg CAPE) may be
enough to generate some pulse storms later this afternoon,
although coverage will likely be isolated given the absence of any
surface features or triggers to focus convection. This being
said, anything that does go up may have the potential to produce
brief heavy downpours/microbursts as evidenced by inverted-V
soundings and appreciable downdraft CAPE (~1,000 J/kg).
Regardless, high convective temperatures and low-level capping
will be negating factors for storm generation.
Severe weather potential... CAMs still seem to be on different pages
with how convection will pan out later this evening and overnight.
Although confidence is increasing in the passage of an MCS
overnight, still some concerns with how the latest suite of CAMs
have struggled to initialize. The HRRR is definitely the most
aggressive solution thus far, developing an organized squall line
across central Minnesota late this evening before diving it down
across the forecast area overnight. This scenario would likely
result in a damaging wind threat, especially as a nocturnal LLJ
builds in across northern Wisconsin at the base of an upper-level
shortwave. Mid-level lapse rates and wet bulb zero heights would
support hail as a secondary threat. Heavy rainfall will also be
possible, although current thinking is that storm motion will be
quick enough to limit widespread flooding concerns. Additionally,
a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out with this type of storm mode.
Fog/smoke... Depending on what time storms exit the area, some
patchy fog will be possible across portions of central to north-
central Wisconsin Sunday morning. Dewpoint depressions at or near
zero combined with light winds and recent rain will create
conditions favorable for ground fog. Will need to monitor for
areas of potentially dense fog on Lake Michigan Sunday morning
given water temperatures in the low to mid 60s and increasing
dewpoints.
The RAP and HRRR continue to show areas of elevated smoke across
the upper Midwest through the weekend. As a plume of thicker smoke
makes its way across the US/Canada border and spreads over Lake
Superior Sunday night into Monday morning, visibility reductions
and health concerns may come into play toward the end of the
forecast period. Otherwise, will have to see whether or not
thinner smoke coverage today will affect temperatures later this
afternoon. Even a fluctuation of a degree or two might be enough
of a hindrance to prevent us from reaching convective
temperatures this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures... Persistent southerly flow will advect in a true
summer airmass as temperatures climb into the low 90s and a surge
of low-level moisture brings dewpoints up into the low 70s. Sunday
will likely be the warmest day with heat indices ranging from the
mid to upper 90s. Suspect that we will stay just below heat
advisory criteria given the effect of trailing cloud cover and
precip, as well as short temporal span. This being said, the
occasional 100 heat index reading would not be out of the question
if temperatures/dewpoints trend higher than what we`re currently
seeing.
Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Rounds of strong to severe storms on Monday with heat and humidity
breaking by Tuesday.
Sunday night...Relative lull expected most of the night. May
still be isolated to scattered storms early on over southern area
as weaker shortwave shifts by mainly to the south. Late Sunday
night another shortwave could bring small chance of storms into
western cwa late. Ahead of the primary cold front, so a warm/muggy
night is in store, especially for the Fox Valley to the
lakeshore.
Monday...Still shaping up to be potential severe weather day. The
hot and humid airmass from the weekend will still be present,
providing the instability before a cold front sweeps across the
region in the afternoon. Bulk shear during this period will be
sufficient, with values around 40 to 50 knots as strong shortwave
works through which would support organized, relatively fast
moving convection. Though some storms could occur early on,
stronger risk for severe will be as the cold front arrives Monday
afternoon. Potential for an organized and fast moving convective
system is certainly there, but details still need to be sorted
out. If this occurs, damaging wind gusts will once again be the
primary convective threat.
Rest of the forecast...Behind the active weather Monday,
northwest flow returns. Temperatures will drop to below normal,
with highs back in the 70s for the middle of the week. This
forecast may still see occasional showers across the north as
weak impulses cross far northern WI, but nothing as active as
today through Monday is expected to be.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Thunderstorms developing across Minnesota have recently been
progged by the CAMs models to mainly miss the area, and the TAF
sites, tracking through western Wisconsin during the overnight
hours into Sunday morning. Given the drier trend with the CAMs
models, and the atmosphere being worked over across the region,
will pull the precipitation from the TAFs with this issuance. Some
low clouds may linger early in the TAF period behind the departing
precipitation, but should dissipate within a few hours. The rest
of the TAF period later on Sunday should be quiet with VFR
conditions expected as most models focus additional showers and
thunderstorms south of the area Sunday afternoon and evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Goodin/JLA
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1003 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Round of Thunderstorms Possible Overnight into Early Sunday
- Late Sunday Storms Possible Mainly Near/South of I-96
- Strong to Severe Storm Chances Monday
- Dry and Cooler End of the Week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Storms approaching the western shore of Lake Michigan will
continue to work toward lower Michigan over the next few hours. A
southern surge toward Milwaukee and northern Illinois starting to
drive the risk for severe weather overnight a little further
south. Best instability at mid lake closer to South Haven and
points south and this should be where our greatest risk for any
severe winds are well after midnight. Overall severe risk seems
pretty low for most of west Michigan overnight.
Still watching though the impact the trailing MCV in Southwest
Minnesota will have on storms by Sunday morning that could lead to
increased risk of heavier showers persisting over the same areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
- Round of Thunderstorms Possible Overnight into Early Sunday
The first period of interest to watch will be late tonight into
Sunday morning. While severe weather is unlikely, thunderstorms
containing heavy downpours and some locally gusty winds are
possible. An isolated instance of damaging wind gusts around 60 mph
is possible mainly across the lakeshore counties.
An MCV is moving through north central WI this afternoon. Additional
scattered storms are occuring in MN. The primary feature to watch
into this evening and tonight will be where the MCV goes and what,
if any, additional storm development could occur along, ahead of,
and/or behind this feature. The 12z CAMs depict various outcomes,
with some suggesting little to no thunderstorm activity overnight
into Sunday morning, but the HRRR often has a superior handle on
convective mode and timing (and will also give a nod to the 00z
NAM 3km, which did well with location and extent of storms in MN
this morning). The MCV will head into an unstable environment in
eastern WI albeit with weak deep layer shear. In Michigan, our
deep layer shear looks poor even at 06z (less than 20 kts), but
does bump up to around 30 kts by 12z as we do see a modest 30kt
LLJ aim toward the region.
Around and after 06z, the HREF 4hr max dBZ with neighborhood
probability for over 40 dBZ (within 20 km of a point) tops out
around 50% across the CWA, indicating that a fair amount of the
membership has heavier storm activity over us but a fair amount
doesn`t. Again, am leaning on the better performing guidance for
this forecast period. Given the orientation of the MUCAPE gradient
overnight, could envision storm activity across northeastern and
east central Wisconsin moving E/SE over Lake Michigan and into west
central Lower Michigan, with additional backbuilding thunderstorms
possibly occurring as the LLJ feeds them. Will also be watching for
MCS development likely across MN overnight that could catch up to
existing activity in WI and press toward Lake Michigan, arriving
mid morning Sunday. If this scenario occurs, some heavy amounts
of rain with localized street/poor drainage flooding is not out of
the question. While some gusty winds could occur (primarily 40-50
mph), the 24 hr HREF LPMM tells the bigger story that the late
night and morning storms could easily lay down 1" or more in
spots. While location and geographic coverage is tough to pin
down, the favored area is the lakeshore but this does extend
toward US 131 also.
- Late Sunday Storms Possible Mainly Near/South of I-96
Better upper level synoptic support will be in place Sunday evening
and night as an upper jet with left exit region divergence moves in.
At 500 mb, another shortwave trough is shown in WI at 00z Monday and
a LLJ of 35-40 kts is forecast to move over northern IN. A
stationary boundary is slated to be draped over the state during
this time as well. Deep layer shear around 30 kts with SBCAPE of
2500 J/kg and PWATs of 1.8"-2.0" should be supportive for
thunderstorms especially toward late afternoon and evening, and
given the stronger wind fields aloft there is a better risk for
damaging wind gusts and hail especially from I-96 to the south. The
storms will be efficient rain producers, with yet another risk for
1" or more of rain in spots.
- Strong to Severe Storm Chances Monday
Another hot and humid day Monday with 850mb temps at 20C and
dewpoints surging into the mid 70s. A mid-level wave will push a
cold front through the region Sunday afternoon to Tuesday morning
while a warm front extends from MN/IA eastward towards northern IL.
To our west, thunderstorm activity will start off north of the warm
front and along/ahead of the cold front and will track eastwards
into WI and MI. Across our area substantial instability will build
to 3000+ J/kg with PWATs surging to 2+ inches ahead of the front
with bulk shear to 40 to 50 knots. Much of the setup will be
resultant on how prior convection evolves Saturday night and Sunday
night, therefore a fair amount of uncertainty exists on where the
exact corridor of thunderstorm activity will track. However,
generally the most likely corridor looks to be upstream convection
across MN/IA/WI propagating toward southwest Michigan during the
late afternoon to evening hours. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
threat.
- Dry and Cooler End of the Week
Upper troughing settles in over the region and cold air advection
brings in more comfortable conditions. Surface high pressure will
scour out any lingering moisture, so expect dewpoints back into the
50s. Plenty of sunshine into the end of the week apart from typical
diurnal cumulus. High temps in the 70s starting Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
A complicated aviation forecast is in store for the next 24 hours.
Currently widespread VFR conditions are ongoing with scattered
diurnal cumulus and high clouds across West Michigan. After 06z
tonight, the remnants of a convective system approach the area
bringing mid-level to high clouds across the area. Conceptually,
the decaying line of storms that has developed across WI and MN
will ride the instability gradient into SW Michigan. However
spread across solutions in coverage and strength of storms is
high. Will leave the current forecast as is with VCTS from 07z-14z
at MKG, AZO, BTL, and GRR. MVFR visbys are possible in any
storms. The HRRR guidance shows secondary development occuring
behind the line, however confidence in this scenario is to low to
include. Will reevaluate TAFs after the 00z suite of CAM guidance
comes in and amend if confidence grows in storm placement and
timing.
Mostly cloudy skies with clouds above 10kft expected tomorrow
after storms end with south-southwest winds of 10-15 knots
gusting to 25 knots. Weak signal for additional storms to develop
near AZO and BTL after 20z Sunday, however this is low confidence
as it depends on how morning storms go. Will leave this scenario
out of the TAFs but reevaluate and amend as needed.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Little wave action is expected for the remainder of today and
tonight given light winds. However, waves do look to pick up into
the 2-3 ft range Sunday as southwest winds increase to 10-20 kts.
At this point it does not look like winds will be strong enough or
waves high enough to reach SCA.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for MIZ050-056-
057-064-071.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Maczko
DISCUSSION...Hoving
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hoving
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
805 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid weather will prevail Sunday and Monday...with
afternoon heat index values peaking above 100 degrees both days.
- The primary focus for thunderstorms and potential severe weather
will remain north of central Illinois for the next couple of
days. As a cold front drops southward, the chances for storms
will increase markedly by Tuesday.
- Below normal temperatures will return by the middle and end of
next week as highs drop back into the upper 70s and lower 80s
Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Main forecast concern this evening is with the potential for a
line of storms to dig south into portions of central Illinois
overnight. As of 8pm this evening, QLCS is in place across
portions of central and southern WI and extrapolation of this line
brings it into the northern counties of the ILX CWA around or
just after midnight tonight. RAP suggests that maintenance of
this line of storms is plausible with veering LLJ focused mainly
across IA/MO but broad WAA providing moderately strong instability
across central Illinois late into the evening. RAP shows MUCAPE
in excess of 3000 J/kg still in place at midnight tonight, albeit
diminishing. Given the orientation of the LLJ, Corfidi vectors
suggest that portions of the storm will be moving almost due south
from its current location. After midnight, gradually diminishing
MLCAPE, increasing MLCIN, and deep layer shear of 20 kt or less
should result in a lowering severe weather threat with time, but a
lingering wind threat could reach into portions of central
Illinois before this occurs, especially near and north of the I-74
corridor. It`s important to note that a number of CAMs including
recent runs of the HRRR keep this activity just off to our north,
so there is some lingering uncertainty on the evolution of this
system which bears close watching over the next few hours.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Isolated convection will develop across central Illinois over the
next couple of hours then linger until shortly before sunset.
After a period of warm/dry weather this evening, attention will
turn to developing thunderstorms well to the N/NW of the area
across Minnesota/northern Iowa. CAMs continue to be in
disagreement...with the HRRR keeping the convection to the north
across Wisconsin and perhaps far northern Illinois late tonight.
Meanwhile the NAM/WRF-ARW/HRW NSSL all suggest the storms will
take a more southerly trajectory and spill into the NW KILX CWA
shortly after midnight. Given the current synoptic pattern featuring
a prominent upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and
downstream weak troughing across the Great Lakes/Ohio River
Valley, the more southerly trajectory seems plausible. As a
result, have introduced 30-40 PoPs mainly for locations north of
I-72 late tonight into early Sunday morning.
The convection will track further E/SE and dissipate after
sunrise, followed by a partly to mostly sunny and hot day. Thanks
to at least partial sunshine and SW winds increasing to 10-15mph,
high temperatures on Sunday will top out in the lower to middle
90s. With dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, corresponding heat
index values will climb into the 100-105 degree range by
afternoon. While there is still some uncertainty about early
morning convection potentially keeping the N/NE CWA slightly
cooler than forecast, think the prevailing SW winds during the
afternoon will cause temps to climb above 90 degrees even at
Bloomington/Champaign/Danville. Have therefore opted to issue a
Heat Advisory for all of central and southeast Illinois from
Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Another round of nocturnal convection will likely develop Sunday
night...this time across Wisconsin/northern Illinois into northern
Indiana. Will maintain low chance PoPs along/north of I-74
accordingly, but think the bulk of the activity will remain just
N/NE of the area. As thermal ridging develops ahead of an
approaching cold front, high temperatures on Monday will climb a
couple degrees higher than Sunday into the middle 90s. This will
result in afternoon heat index readings peaking in the 105-110
degree range, warranting the continuation of the Heat Advisory.
As a deep upper low currently over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba
digs southward, it will push a cold front toward central Illinois
Monday night into Tuesday. Given high dewpoint air pooling ahead
of the boundary and increasing deep-layer wind shear associated
with the approaching upper wave, will need to keep an eye out for
potential severe weather...particularly Tuesday afternoon/evening
as the front sags southward. If frontal timing remains the same,
may also need to consider extending the Heat Advisory through
Tuesday afternoon for locations south of I-70.
Once the front passes, a significantly cooler and less humid
airmass will arrive for the middle and end of next week. High
temperatures will drop back into the upper 70s and lower 80s
while overnight lows will dip into the 50s and lower 60s Wednesday
through Saturday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Low pressure will remain west of the terminals through the period
with a modest S/SW breeze through the period, at least outside the
influence of any thunderstorms. Storms are ongoing across
portions of northern Illinois as well as a line of storms from SE
MN across central WI. This more northern line of storms may push
south into central Illinois late tonight into Sunday morning. It
remains unsure how far south the line will reach, but a prob30
accounts for the potential of it reaching the I-74 corridor in a
weakening phase. Expect SW winds to begin gusting around 20 kt mid
to late Sunday morning.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is little change in the predicted heat Sunday except
that high cloudiness Sunday may affect afternoon temperatures.
- Heavy thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday and the
potential for severe weather appears low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
A plume of upper level moisture residing across ID/NV/UT this
afternoon will move east into wrn/ncntl Nebraska late tonight and
remain across the region during the day Sunday and Sunday night. The
500-300mb RH in the RAP model is the basis for isolated POPs until
Sunday evening when deepening moisture will increase rain chances to
30-40 percent across ncntl Nebraska.
Severe weather chances tonight through Sunday night will favor wind
gusts over hail and the area to watch Sunday will be north central
Nebraska where MLCAPE increases to 3000J/KG accompanied by effective
shear near 45kts. The HREF shows storm development across the ncntl
zone Sunday evening. Otherwise, the models favor the super heated
air across wrn Nebraska for high based (500mb) storm development
late in the afternoon throughout the evening.
The temperature forecast Sunday could be in jeopardy given the
expected increase in cloud cover which could limit vertical mixing
below the targeted h700mb level. There is weak sfc low pressure
across the Dakotas to produce westerlies of just 10 to 15 kts at
h850-700mb. A warm front/dryline bulge should move east to near
highway 83 Sunday afternoon. 100s are in place across many areas
west of 83. H700mb temperatures should rise to 16-17C across the
west which is favorable for 100s. Given the potential for cloudiness
at times, the temperature forecast is modest and uses the short term
model blend. It is near or slightly warmer than the NBM 50th.
The latest forecast Sunday continues the Heat Advisory across all of
wrn and ncntl Nebraska. This might be generous across the Sandhills
where heat indices are projected to remain below the 100F threshold.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Temperatures aloft at h700mb will begin to cool with the arrival
of a cold front Monday but the models are waiting until late
Tuesday aftn/Tuesday night to ignite thunderstorms. Chance/low-
end likely POPs are in place and moisture will have pooled to
around 1.50 inches of PWAT. Moisture transport will be very
modest and gradual.
The overall severe weather potential Tuesday appears to be low for
this forecast for a few reasons. Wrn/ncntl Nebraska will be post-
frontal-a back door cold front will move through Monday and become
stationary across the cntl high Plains Tuesday. Sfc temperatures
will be cool. Winds aloft will be 25-45 kts at h500-300mb- which is
weak for severe weather. Storm development is expected across the
Laramie ranges and this storm activity will move east into a moist
but more stable environment. The NAM soundings show mid-level lapse
rates which are nearly moist adiabatic. So, for now it appears
weather conditions will favor ordinary thunderstorms.
The upper level ridge of high pressure producing record heat across
the wrn U.S. will amplify north into wrn Canada Wednesday through
Saturday. This will place wrn/ncntl Nebraska in a strong northwest
or even north flow aloft. The models are signaling an increase in
moisture next Saturday and this is occurring from subtropical
sources and nrn stream sources. Rain chances are isolated to low-end
chance and later forecasts will raise the POP if warranted.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
VFR conditions are expected to continue through western and north
central Nebraska tonight through tomorrow evening. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening across
portions of northern Nebraska, the Sandhills, and the Panhandle.
Have omitted thunder from the TAFs at this time, as confidence
remains low in thunder in vicinity of the terminals. Otherwise,
winds remain light and variable through tomorrow afternoon, with few
to scattered passing high clouds.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ004>010-
022>029-035>038-056-094.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059-
069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Richie
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
740 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably warm this afternoon with a 20-30% chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the west.
- 40-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening into
overnight hours. Marginal risk (category 1 out of 5) of severe
thunderstorms for most of the UP. Slight risk (category 2 out
of 5) for the far west. Main threats are large hail and
damaging winds.
- Chances (20-40%) for thunderstorms along lake breeze
boundaries Sunday.
- Marginal risk (category 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms
Monday.
- Cooling and drying trend into the midweek portion of next
week with the arrival of high pressure.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Ongoing showers and severe thunderstorms in central Wisconsin should
continue pressing southeast through the evening. Some
sprinkles/light rain may fall in and around Menominee, but
otherwise, mostly dry conditions are now expected for the next few
hours. Current satellite analysis shows what appears to be a stable
strato layer of clouds over western Upper Michigan, implying a more
stable atmosphere. East of this area, a north south boundary is
apparent on radar through Marquette County. This boundary may be the
focus for some late evening convection, but this is very uncertain.
East of the boundary, SPC Mesoanalysis shows very little
instability, and without any real shear to speak of, I`m skeptical
about any organized development. With this being said, the HRRR,
which has been the most consistent hourly CAM this afternoon/evening
so far, is insistent on scattered showers and storms developing
around 4-7z along and just east of this boundary. Will continue to
maintain low POPs elsewhere in the western Upper Michigan given the
continued uncertainty in this forecast.
Upstream in northwest Minnesota, some convection has been observed.
If upscale development continues as the HRRR implies, development
would congeal into a bowing segment as it tracks southeast into
western WI after midnight eastern time. If this development occurs
as stated, main risk area for strong thunderstorms would be in areas
bordering the Michigan/Wisconsin stateline. However, timing suggests
even strong storms may be hard to realize.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Upper air consists of an anticyclone centered around the Four
Corners and a cutoff low over northern SK/MB. Belt of seasonably
fast zonal flow between these two features is diffluent over the
local area. Several small areas of convection are noted in this
diffluent zone - one in far SW ON, one in northern MN, and one in
northern WI. These are being fed by modest SW winds at 850 mb and
are located in an area of steep midlevel lapse rates. These lapse
rates weaken with eastward extent, and as a result, there is
uncertainty whether the lead convective cluster over northern WI
will make it into the western UP this afternoon. This cluster has
outperformed CAM depictions of it so far, leading to greater than
normal uncertainty in its evolution. Have expanded 20-40% PoPs over
the far west for mid-afternoon to account for this. Severe risk
appears low given paltry bulk shear if storms do indeed unfold this
afternoon. Otherwise, a few showers are firing up along the lake
breeze in northeast Alger/northern Luce County. Isolated ts possible
here this afternoon.
Similar low predictability exists in the overnight hours with any
MCS activity due to wide variance in CAM output and tendency for
better instability to be located SW of the local area. As a result,
early afternoon forecast update went with a more broad-brush
approach to PoPs in the 50-60% range for the overnight hours. Severe
risk (large hail/damaging winds) does still exist mainly for the
western half of the UP if an outflow-dominant MCS does develop given
respectable convective parameters (1000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE), although
deep shear is a bit lacking at less than 30 kt.
Otherwise, the other concern is the heat with temps on track to
reach the mid-80s to near 90 (warmest in downslope zones near Lake
Superior), although dewpoints should mix out a bit in the warmest
areas with humidity contribution to apparent temps negligible.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Aloft, the path of most prominent troughs and ridges is well to the
north over Canada, leaving the Upper Great Lakes in a primarily
zonal pattern through this weekend. This will lead to the primary
driver of sensible weather to be weak shortwave impulses in the
zonal flow. While the synoptic forcing may be weak and ambiguous,
hot and muggy conditions this weekend will allow for instability to
grow, allowing for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
over the weekend and to begin next week, especially in the form of
MCS`s. High pressure then settles over the region by Tuesday,
allowing for a cooler dry period towards the middle and late week
period next week.
Sunday, clearing via subsidence following lingering convection from
the day prior will allow for some clearing skies. This will lead to
a pretty warm day, with highs around 80 except in the south central
where highs could approach 90, though the 00Z LREF only gives about
a 10% chance of exceeding 90. Moisture values increase as well, with
the PWATs exceeding 1.5 inches representing the 90th percentile of
climatology by GRB and APX sounding climatology. Dew points are
forecast to be approaching 70 for at least some period of time for
much of the UP, with the highest chances (30-70%) of exceeding a
muggy 70 being the south-central and the east. Monday looks to be
similarly warm, though lower chances of dew points being
oppressively high.
These hot and humid summertime conditions will be accompanied with
westerly to west-northwesterly flow at 500mb, which will allow for
some minor shortwaves to progress through the region. One of these
shortwaves looks to pass just south of the MI/WI state line on
Sunday. While mesoscale ridging will act to keep larger-scale
thunderstorms away from the UP, the mid 60s+ dew points and 1000-
2000 J/kg of only weakly capped SBCAPE combine for a
climatologically favorable setup for convection over the UP. With
the southwesterly surface flow contrasting the west-northwest flow
aloft, directional shear will be present, though speed shear will be
somewhat lacking. Regardless, shear will be present enough to help
maintain whatever thunderstorms do initiate, so if enough lake-
breeze convergence zones can lift parcels enough to realize the
instability, severe weather is still a possibility for Sunday
primarily along the lake breeze in the east. Monday, another
shortwave passes from west to east across the UP starting in the
west in the early morning hours and progressing east throughout the
day. Instability does not look as strong with this wave, with the
12Z GEFS mean around 1000 J/kg, but forcing is much better, so
thunderstorms are expected with a few being potentially strong to
severe, consistent with the SPC Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5).
By Tuesday, broad troughing aloft shifts from northern Ontario
towards the East Coast and ridging fills in behind. As a result of
the advancing ridging, high pressure to around 1020mb will keep
weather quiet through at least the end of the week. A cooling trend
is also expected to accompany the arriving ridging as north and
northwest flow will bring highs only in the upper 60s and low 70s
Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures rebound in the late week
towards more seasonably summer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Upstream convection continues to struggle as it approaches Upper
Michigan. Recent satellite imagery suggests a mostly capped
environment over western Upper Michigan, which suggests the main
concern for convective development will be late evening over central
Upper Michigan and then upstream in Minnesota. The former may
support some thunderstorms in and around KSAW while the latter would
be a concern overnight as it tracks southeast for KCMX/KIWD. This
generally matches recent HRRR runs, but it should be stated that
there is still a good bit of uncertainty in this. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Southerly winds remain below 20 kts today as the pressure gradient
stays light. South winds increase tonight over the east to near 20
kts with a 15-25% chance for gusts reaching 25 kts tonight ahead of
the next disturbance. Some strong to severe storms are possible
tonight, especially across western Lake Superior. The main threats
are damaging winds, but large hail is also possible. Another round
of storms is expected Monday into Monday night as a low pressure
system moves through the area. Patchy dense fog is also a
possibility in the wake of any precipitation. Following the
Monday/Monday night low presusure`s cold front, west winds increase
to around 20 kts across much of the lake Monday night and Tuesday.
As high pressure begins to build in mid next week, winds look to
fall back below 20 kts, remaining light through the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTP
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...GS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
932 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.UPDATE...
Evening update to expire the Red Flag Warning for FWZ 475 and 476
and to cancel the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning. The
latest forecast remains on track as increasing monsoonal moisture
continues to build in tonight into Sunday and Monday. Isolated to
scattered mostly dry thunderstorms are expected as a result with
temperatures seeing a gradual cooling trend, falling below
headline level levels but still above normal for this time of year.
MacKay
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a strong H5 ridge of high
pressure overhead centered over the Four Corners region which
will continue to bring hot and very dry conditions to our region.
Also worth mentioning is the increase in wildfire smoke and haze
overhead which will continue to lead to smoky and hazy skies with
the current air quality generally in that "moderate" category.
Weak monsoon moisture transport over SRN Idaho associated with
moisture working clockwise around this area of high pressure has
led to an uptick in clouds with radar imagery showing
predominantly clouds and or virga so far this afternoon with the
closest thunderstorms down in NRN Utah and Nevada. The HREF model
probability of thunder through tonight shows less than a 10%
chance across our entire region with around a 10-20% chance along
the Utah, but we will see that very isolated 5-10% chance today
dependent on if we see any organization. High temperatures today
will be in the 90s to low 100s before temperatures slightly cool
for Sunday by around 3-5 degrees as a shortwave trough ushers in
more isolated to scattered coverage of thunderstorms for Sunday.
As a result, the current HEAT ADVISORIES and EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS remain on track to expire tonight in coordination with
our neighboring offices.
As that aforementioned H5 shortwave trough passes overhead for
Sunday, PWATs around 0.30-0.60" on Saturday will increase to 0.60-
1.00" on Sunday which will lead to an uptick in shower and
thunderstorm potential regionwide. The HREF model picks up on this
increasing trend showing a 30-60% chance of thunder for
everywhere outside the CNTRL Mountains where a 10-30% chance will
exist. The convective environment Sunday afternoon will support
around 300-700 J/kg of SBCAPE, 20-30 kt 0-6 km shear, and 8-9
degree/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. As a result, the primary hazards
tomorrow will center around gusty outflow winds and any new fire
starts given PWATs will be in that typical range we see a mix of
wet and dry storms. Outside the CNTRL Mountains, the HREF model
shows a 50-70% chance of winds greater than 34 mph with ensemble
maximum wind gusts in that 40-60 mph range given elevated DCAPE.
Very isolated showers and storms will continue overnight Sunday
into Monday as a secondary H5 shortwave building in early next
week helps to keep convection going. MacKay
LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.
The continued heat will be the main long term impact through next
Saturday. A weak upper level short wave riding on top of the
ridge will bring the coolest day of the period on Monday with
highs in the lower 90s low elevations and mid 70s to mid 80s in
the mountains. Will also have isolated thunderstorms with the
system mainly in the mountains. The ridge axis rebuilds over Idaho
Tuesday and remains overhead with weak oscillations east and west
into next weekend. Some moisture may get trapped in the region
and isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the blended data
daily, but significant rainfall is not expected and nearly all
activity forecast for the central, southern and eastern mountains.
High temperatures will remain well above normal with low
elevations mid to upper 90s and mountains lower 80s to lower 90s
in the Tuesday through Saturday time period. Monday will be the
breeziest day with up valley 10 to 20 mph sustained and gusts 20
to 30 mph in the Snake River Plain. With the building upper level
ridge much lighter winds expected Tuesday through Saturday. GK
AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday.
Will have VFR through Sunday with mainly mid level and high cloud
cover as some monsoonal moisture continues to push in from the
southwest. Extremely dry so do not have and thunder in the TAFs
today in vicinity, but will be a much better chance late Sunday
afternoon. Winds generally around 10 knots this afternoon at all
sites with some occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Expect similar
winds Sunday afternoon. GK
FIRE WEATHER...
Under the continued influence of a H5 ridge of high pressure
centered over the Four Corners Region, hot and very dry conditions
continue today with breezy wind gusts peaking around 25-35 mph.
As a result, a RED FLAG WARNING is in effect for FWZ 475 and 476
with near critical to critical fire weather conditions possible
elsewhere given a very dry air mass in place with winds
approaching or reaching critical levels at times. While we are
seeing an increase in clouds today on the leading edge of some
weak monsoon moisture transport, conditions will remain dry
outside of a very isolated 5- 10% chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening.
Attention tomorrow turns to an approaching H5 shortwave trough
lifting NE out of the Great Basin. This trough will help to
introduce a NBM 15-35% chance of thunderstorms everywhere outside
the CNTRL Mountains where a 10-25% chance will exist. The HREF
model is a bit more aggressive with these probabilities, putting
about a 30-60% everywhere outside the CNTRL Mountains where a
10-30% chance exists. A mix of isolated to scattered wet and
mostly dry thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with a RED FLAG
WARNING in effect for FWZ 413 and 427 given the best scattered
coverage of storms in theses areas. Elsewhere however, we are also
continuing to monitor the potential for expansion of this RFW
dependent on further forecasts but keep in mind isolated wet and
dry thunderstorms will be possible regionwide tomorrow. The
primary hazards with storms tomorrow will center lightning and
outflow wind gusts to around 40-60 mph. 30
Thunderstorm chances will continue again into Monday before
decreasing in coverage and shifting SE for Tuesday as a slightly
cooler air mass settles in early next week. The majority of long
range model guidance continues to show a ridge of high pressure
building back in by midweek next week which will lead to a warming
trend as conditions remain mostly dry. We are still expected
afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms each day through much
of next week with a focus over the higher terrain. MacKay
AIR QUALITY...
Wildfire smoke from regional wildfires across the Intermountain
West continues to lead to degraded air quality in that "Moderate"
to "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" category across much of SRN
Idaho. The latest HRRR smoke model keeps wildfire smoke in our
area through the weekend which will continue to lead to hazy and
smoky skies overhead below about 500 mb. MacKay
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night
for IDZ413-427.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong subtropical ridge will remain over the Southeast through
early to mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 PM Saturday...
No convection developed along the Coastal Plain this afternoon. As
the HRRR correctly predicted, there are some high-based showers to
the northwest of the Triad that are slowly moving southeast.
However, the 00Z Greensboro sounding showed greatest saturation at
around 15 kft, and RH values below 80% from 11 kft to the surface.
With automated observations in the area showing cloud heights no
lower than 7 kft, and large surface dewpoint depressions, think that
these showers are likely virga, with precipitation evaporating
before it reaches the ground. Will not make any changes to the
forecast at this time, which has the chance for rain ending now.
Cannot rule out some patchy fog northeast of the Triangle, where the
greatest rainfall occurred over the last 48 hours and is the
location where the wind is the most likely to go calm. Lows will
range from the upper 60s near the VA/NC border to the mid 70s around
Fayetteville.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 257 PM Saturday...
Steady warming trend begins Sun with temperatures rising into the
mid/upper 90s and heat index values ranging from around 100 to near
105. A lee trough will develop over western NC in between an area of
high pressure over the LA riding up into the Ohio Valley and the
anchored Bermuda High in the Atlantic. This will prompt mostly
southwesterly flow at the surface up through 850mb and advect in
warmer temperatures aloft (850mb 19 to 21C). This will support temps
rising into the mid/upper 90s through the early afternoon. Point
soundings indicate some relatively drier air aloft that will mix
down to the surface and keep surface dew points in mid 60s (W) to
low 70s (E). This should temper heat indices a bit, but still reach
around 100 to near 105 degrees. Isolated locations will likely reach
105 during the afternoon for a brief time, but areal coverage and
confidence is low enough to not preclude a heat advisory at this
time.
Some isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible Sun
afternoon within a hot and humid airmass. Greatest coverage will
likely be along the lee trough in the western Piedmont as a low
amplitude shear axis sags over the area as well as along the
seabreeze, with subsequent showers/storms possible along convective
outflows. Severe potential remains low as deep layer shear remains
weak (around 20 kts) and warm/dry air aloft will work to combat
sustained deep convection. Isolated strong winds cannot be ruled out
if deeper convection is able to develop with a deeply mixed boundary
layer and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 257 PM Saturday...
The main weather story for Monday and Tuesday will be the intense
heat, given the pattern which features weak ridging and flow aloft,
coupled with H8 temp anomalies of 4-6 deg C above normal. This will
result in highs in the upper-90s both days, and some low-100s can`t
be ruled out. Heat indices of 105+ are expected from the Triangle
eastward on Monday, perhaps reaching as far west as the Triad by
Tuesday. In terms of precip chances those days... coverage should
be isolated at best both days given the overall weak forcing over
the region.
PoPs will increase on Wednesday as heights begin to fall in advance
of a trough moving across the Great Lakes. With increasing flow
above the BL, expect to see the Piedmont trough sharpen and improved
low level convergence and subsequent outflow boundaries should be
the primary lifting mechanisms for increased shower activity. Shower
and thunderstorm activity, which may begin by early afternoon, may
help keep high temps limited to the lower 90s.
Rain chances will continue to increase, with well-above climo PoPs
by Thursday and for Friday and possibly Saturday as well as the
aforementioned trough pushes a cold front into the Mid Atlantic and
Carolinas regions before stalling over us. That boundary, coupled
with another plume of deep moisture will likely result in several
rounds of heavy rains. However, that will also keep temps limited
to near-climo values.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM Saturday...
A few isolated showers along along the slopes of the Appalachian
Mtns have been drifting east toward the Piedmont but have been
diminishing quickly. One shower popped up SW of GSO earlier, so
another shower in the vicinity of INT/GSO cannot be ruled out
through around 02Z based on some hires guidance, but after that no
showers are expected overnight. VFR will generally prevail
everywhere, with the lone and temporary exception most likely being
at RWI where some brief MVFR vsbys are more probable (but still low
confidence) after 06Z.
A similar day is expected on Sunday, with isolated showers and
storms developing over western NC and perhaps impacting INT/GSO late
in the afternoon. The seabreeze could trigger a storm near FAY but
is less likely and will not be mentioned in the TAF for FAY.
Outlook: Isolated afternoon storms could result in sub-VFR conditions
at TAF sites early this week, but otherwise VFR conditions are
expected until the next front settles into the region with higher
chances of convection and flight restrictions late Wed-Thu.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
July 14:
KRDU: 101/1954
July 15:
KGSO: 97/1974
KRDU: 99/1997
July 16:
KGSO: 99/1915
KRDU: 101/1887
KFAY: 103/1937
July 17:
KRDU: 100/1887
KFAY: 102/1932
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 13:
KGSO: 75/2017
KRDU: 78/2017
KFAY: 78/2017
July 14:
KGSO: 77/1981
KRDU: 77/2017
KFAY: 80/2017
July 15:
KGSO: 74/2019
KRDU: 76/1992
KFAY: 78/2015
July 16:
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 78/1992
July 17:
KGSO: 75/2013
KRDU: 80/1887
KFAY: 77/2019
July 18:
KGSO: 76/1986
KRDU: 79/1887
KFAY: 77/2019
July 19:
KGSO: 75/2016
KFAY: 77/2023
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...BLS
CLIMATE...RAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms may redevelop overnight. Confidence is low
due to the low predictability of the pattern.
- Heat Advisory remains in effect through Monday for triple
digit heat.
- Below normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
19Z water vapor showed the upper ridge centered over the four
corners region with northwest flow still over the central
plains. There were some elevated showers over south central NEB
associated with a subtle wave within the flow. Surface obs
showed low pressure over northwest KS. This has kept a gusty
south wind across the forecast area as temps warm through the
90s.
For tonight through Sunday, the models have struggled with the
subtle nature of the pattern and the elevated convection the past
couple night. While it hasn`t been perfect, the upglide/saturation
on the 315K to 320K isentropic surfaces seemed to provide some idea
of where the elevated showers were going to be. With models and
water vapor showing shortwave energy remaining weak, think this may
be the better clue as to where storms form. With the signal for
tonight is not quite as clear on the isentropic surfaces, the NAM
and RAP hint at a band of saturation along with some upglide over
northeast and east central KS through the overnight period, and have
added a slight chance POP to the forecast. This is a low confidence
forecast given the limited predictability. If this activity
develops, is will probably fall apart by mid morning as the upglide
falls apart. By Sunday afternoon models advect a stout EML over the
forecast area with 700MB temps increasing between 13C and 16C. This
will likely prevent any surface based convection and mid levels are
forecast to dry out as the upper ridge propagates east reducing the
potential for elevated precip into Sunday evening.
So attention turns to the heat. The is good agreement among the
operational solutions and the NBM for triple digit heat to continue
spreading east through Monday. Even with dewpoint temps mixing out
across central KS, air temps and apparent temps look to be around
105 degrees for Sunday and Monday. So will maintain the heat
advisory as is.
The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring a weak frontal boundary into the
forecast area Monday night. Curiously though there is not a lot of
convection with the boundary, probably due to the very warm mid
level temps with the EML. The NBM has better chances for showers and
storms Tuesday night when models prog some shortwave energy moving
along the boundary. Still temps for Tuesday should be a little
cooler, though parts of east central KS may still be dealing with
heat indicies around 100. Models show northwest flow redeveloping
for the end of the week and below normal temps as a modified
Canadian airmass moves into the Upper Midwest. This seems to be
handled by the blend and have not made any changes from the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
TAFs are mainly driven by wind for the 00Z period. Gusts should
subside with sunset and resume after sunrise Sunday. A 40-45 kt
LLJ will become established tonight, but the increase will be
gradual through 2kft AGL so have not included LLWS. Confidence
remains too low to include mention of TS with chances only
around 15 percent late this evening and tonight.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Teefey