Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/09/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
913 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-25% chance of
precipitation) possible over northeastern to eastern SD into
west central MN Tuesday afternoon and evening.
- Hazy conditions continue this evening through Tuesday as
northwest flow is bringing in periodic waves of smoke from the
Canadian wildfires. This should not impact air quality across the
region as the smoke remains aloft.
- Heat and humidity will be on the increase through the week into
the weekend. Friday through Sunday, temperatures will be about 5
to 10 degrees above average, with highs for the weekend in the
upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Dewpoints are expected in the mid 60 to low 70 degree range, with
heat index values in the mid/upper 90s to near 100F.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
UPDATE Issued at 909 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
The scattered thunderstorms that affected the area earlier today
have now come to an end with the loss of daytime heating. No
changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
HREF and deterministic models agree on weak northwest flow
continuing over the CWA on the left side of the trough this evening
and on the right side of a large amplified ridge located over the
western CONUS. The northernmost shortwave/vort max continues
northeast and is forecasted to be over MI/WI through IA this
evening. This wave will continue to shift northeast and over
southeastern Canada/Northeastern part of the US through the day on
Tuesday. Within this flow, another highly positive tilted weak
shortwave will swing down from Canada into the Northern Plains
Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, pushing south/southeast.
Earlier today with this northwest flow, satellite showed elevated
smoke being brought down, from to the wildfires in Canada, over the
Northern Plains with much of the more dense smoke staying over ND.
HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke Model shows periodic waves of
elevated smoke moving in, from the northwest to southeast, over the
CWA tonight through at least Tuesday. Nothing noteworthy in the near
surface smoke model, so this should not impact air quality or
visibilities at this time. Otherwise, surface high pressure will be
over the area tonight through Tuesday with keeping winds light and
variable.
Dew points late this afternoon and evening will continue in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s and 700mb temps between 3-4C/500mb temps
-11 to -12C. With daytime heating and steepening low level lapse
rates (cooler air aloft) isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are possible but meso-parameters remain weak. ML/MU
CAPE increases up to 1000 j/kg with the highest values over
northeastern SD into west central MN with shear remaining weak and
mid level lapse rates at 6C and under. Sounding profiles are very
skinny indicating more of a chance of precip loading, keeping the
storm short lived. Also there really isn`t much in the way of upper
level forcing (especially west of the MO River, closer to the
ridge/high), as winds remain weak. So the latest HREF/HRRR indicates
any convection will be limited in coverage and intensity with no
severe weather anticipated. However, HIRES ARW/NSSL WRF tries to
show some isolated convection further west, but low confidence
exists to put any pops this far west as of now, it may need to be
added in. So latest grids indicate a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms
mainly over northeastern/eastern SD into western MN with any
thunderstorms diminishing by sunset. We will see this threat again
Tuesday afternoon/evening as dewpoints will be similar to today and
CAPE values up to 1000 j/kg over the eastern CWA with 15-25% chances
of pops in this area as we get a little more help with the next
shortwave.
Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs for
Tuesday will be in the 80s to possibly a few 90 readings around and
west of the Missouri River.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Models continue to maintain their consensus and consistency with
the overarching large scale pattern through the coming week,
contributing to high forecaster confidence.
Wednesday will be the last day of northwest flow aloft before the SW
CONUS high pressure ridge moves over the region. Low level moisture
will remain abundant with persistent 60+ degree dewpoint temps
across the region. Add in steep low level lapse rates and daytime
heating, and its likely there will once again be isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity. 0-6 km shear will be limited, although models
are hinting at maybe up to 20-25 kts, which could certainly help aid
in the development of a stronger storm or two Wednesday afternoon.
The hi-res models that extend into Wednesday do show convection
developing across our eastern CWA and tracking quickly into
Minnesota.
500 MB heights build and the warm air really starts to move into the
region on Thursday and persist through the weekend. Models still
show a train of shortwaves riding the ridge and moving across the
northern plains during this period. For the most part, the region
should be sufficiently capped, although, the persistent southerly
low and mid level flow will allow dewpoints to rise into the 70s
beginning Friday and persisting through the weekend (likely some
influence of the maturing corn crop as well). A highly unstable air
mass will develop. If there was any concern about capping potential
and thunderstorm development it would be our far northeast CWA.
While timing of shortwaves is pretty far out in the predictability
window, the probability of 700 MB temps over the coteau region
exceeding 14 C really never exceeds a 30-40% so the door is not
completely closed on thunderstorm development across the far
northeast through the end of the week into the weekend.
Of course the concern for heat related impacts extends through the
period. High confidence in the western CWA exceeding 90 degree MaxTs
although the NBM deterministic spits out a few 100 degree readings
west of the Missouri River on Sunday. Meanwhile the the LREF
probabilities of exceeding 100 degrees really never exceed 30-40%
and these highest probs are limited to our southwest CWA, so a
little bit of uncertainty in reaching the 100 degree temperature
mark. As for the probability of exceeding heat index criteria, the
LREF has increased the odds pretty significantly for Sunday, now
ranging from 50-65% chance for most of the region on Sunday, with
lesser values over north central South Dakota and the coteau region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Tuesday. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms this evening,
then again late Tuesday afternoon, mainly across the eastern part
of the area. There could be brief periods of MVFR vsbys with any
thunderstorms that develop.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lows in the 50s and 60s tonight
- Highs in the 80s Tuesday
- Heating up through the rest of the business week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
A weak MSLP gradient will prevail across the FA tonight. This will
result in light and variable winds. Overnight minimums will be near
normal with values in the 50s and 60s. There was a small concern
of light precipitation developing across central Kansas tonight,
however, confidence is very low and 95% of the FA should not see
anything. A continued weak MSLP gradient continues Tuesday with a
very weak lee trough across Colorado. The net result is light winds
continuing tomorrow. Highs should be mainly in the mid to upper 80s.
The forecast will remain dry with little, if any precipitation probability
percentage points through the rest of the day and into the evening.
For the rest of the business week, will be watching the 500 hPa high
move from the Desert Southwest Wednesday to over the Rockies Saturday.
The net result is hotter highs for the FA. EPS has >90% probabilities
of >90F by the end of the business week. The next weekend is looking
hot with highs around 100F. Lows during this period will trend warmer
with mainly 60s increasing to mainly 70s to close out the extended
period. Unfortunately, precipitation looks unlikely through the period
under the prevailing anticyclone.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Diurnally driven isolated showers have popped up east of DDC,
much like the HRRR CAM model was showing/ These showers will
drift southeast and fade by about 01 UTC/8 PM. A brief shower
could impact DDC with around a 5-7kft cig. VFR fight category is
anticipated for all other sites through the next 24 hours.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River
Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as
the Rainy Lake outlet. This advisory has been extended through
Friday, but as headwaters level begin to crest, may be trimmed
in its areal extent through the week. Lingering high water from
rains in June continue across the Rainy River Basin. Far
headwaters gauges on the Kawishiwi River, Basswood River, and
Lake Vermilion have crested and are slowly but surely coming
down, but remain elevated (Lake Vermilion still a foot above its
pre-rain level). The Vermilion River continues to fall once
again, falling at a rate of a couple inches each day, and the
River Flood Warning was able to be canceled earlier this
afternoon as these recessions are expected to continue. This
has allowed the lake level increases on Crane Lake to slow
considerably, with less than an inch of rise in the last 24
hours. Lac La Croix levels are beginning to show signs of
cresting, as rises in the last day have been less than an inch
as well (around 2cm), after some much faster rates of rise
earlier this month. All this high water continues to lead to
steady rises on downstream lakes, notably Namakan/Kabetogama
(Nam/Kab) lakes where minor flooding continues, and on Rainy
Lake where levels are high but no flooding is ongoing, per
latest reports and webcams. Per the latest IJC water level
bulletin, dam operators are working to maximize outflow through
the basin. However, the sheer volume of water moving through
will still result in additional rises on these lakes. As water
levels upstream crest and begin to come down, rates of rise on
Nam/Kab should begin to slow and eventually crest, and levels
continue. We`ve already seen the rates of rise begin to
demonstrate signs of slowing. From July 1 to 3rd, Nam/Kab Lakes
were rising at 2- 2.5" per day, but have slowed to 1-1.5"/day
over the weekend. General guidance suggests peak levels on
Nam/Kab could be possible this week, but that is uncertain. As
is usual for this basin, water will move slowly and recessions
will happen at glacial speeds. Additional rainfall may cause
brief rises in tributaries and extend the period of high water
in core lakes. Boaters should expect high water, potentially
hidden underwater hazards (including submerged docks), and
strong currents in constricted areas. Generally light winds are
expected, except for possible brief erratic gusts out of
thunderstorms, so wave heights should remain fairly minimal.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Britt
HYDROLOGY...Levens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
609 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Easily our biggest concern in the entire 7-day is a return of
more July-like heat, with high temps into at least low 90s
returning to mainly our KS zones already Tues-Thurs, then more
widespread 90s into most of Nebraska (and upper 90s to 100+
especially KS) Friday-Monday.
- Although still subject to plenty of fine-tuning between now
and then, Sunday currently looks like the overall-hottest day
for our coverage area (CWA) as a whole, widespread 100+ heat
index and at least spotty 105+ potential especially in KS.
- Although cannot truly "guarantee" that it remains this way, at
least for now there are no MENTIONABLE (meaning 20% or higher)
chances for measurable rain/thunderstorms anywhere through
next Monday daytime.
- IF future forecasts were to include any official (20+%) rain
chances (PoPs), possible candidates per latest model data
MIGHT be: 1) very late Tues night/early Wed AM (actually have
introduced a chance for NON-measurable sprinkles for part of
this time)...2) Wednesday afternoon mainly in our far east
(possible glancing blow of showers/weak storms...3) Friday
evening (both ECMWF/GFS suggest limited storm potential).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
-- A FEW "BIG PICTURE" COMMENTS/FIRST IMPRESSIONS FROM A
FORECASTER FRESHLY BACK FROM 4 DAYS OFF:
Wow, what an abrupt pattern change! Following one of the wettest
first weeks of July in many decades for parts (certaintly not all)
of our CWA and the overall-coolest first week of July for much of
our area in at least 20 years, the proverbial switch has quite
suddenly flipped to a mostly dry and increasingly- warm/hot
weather pattern as expansive/strong upper level high
pressure/ridging currently centered over the western continental
U.S. (CONUS) gradually becomes our overall-biggest large-scale
influence over the coming days.
While the overall lack of severe thunderstorm potential will
certainly be a welcomed change to ALL of us (especially after
Saturday), the lack of rain over the next 7+ days will surely
be met with mixed reviews (those places that have received a
widespread 7-10+" over the past month especially near/north of
I-80 will likely welcome the chance to dry out the most, while
those places near and especially south of the KS border that
managed no more than 2-4" of rain in the last 30 days will
likely be most disappointed in the pattern change).
-- PRIMARY CHANGES TO THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PACKAGE VERSUS THE
PREVIOUS ONE (issued early this morning):
Pretty much all in the "minor details" department:
- High temps were nudged up 1-3 degrees most areas for Tues-Wed
- a slight chance for sprinkles (10% chance/non-measurable) were
introduced to most of the CWA for very late Tues night-early
Wed AM (later shifts will have to make sure this doesn`t need
"upgraded" to a formal slight/20% chance of light measurable
showers/weak storms)
-- 7-DAY FORECAST OVERVIEW/HIGHLIGHTS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM (AND THE NEXT FEW
HOURS):
While a VERY SPOTTY shower/weak thunderstorm just cannot be 100%
ruled out in a weakly unstable/weakly capped airmass late this
afternoon-early evening (most favored north of I-80 IF it were
to occur), these chances are deemed less than 20% and thus do
not appear in our official forecast. Otherwise, today will end
up turning out very much as anticipated. Under a mix of mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies (mainly varying coverage of
shallow/"fair weather" cumulus), high temps are on track to top
out 81-85 degrees most places, with slightly warmer highs up to
86-88 possible especially in our KS zones.
In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, we begin a period
of prolonged north- northwesterly flow, as a departing trough
axis now resides slightly east-through-south of our area, and we
remain well- downstream from an expansive upper ridge ("heat
dome") centered over southern CA. At the surface, the pattern is
weak but dominated by high pressure, with winds largely under 10
MPH out of the north-northwest in most of the CWA.
- THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
Assuming no rogue "pop-up"/very isolated convection develops
early this evening (pre-sunset), this will simply be a very
quiet night under clear/mostly clear skies. Winds will be very
light (mainly under 5 MPH) and somewhat variable in direction.
Made very little change to low temps, which will be fairly
similar to last night (and the overall-coolest of the next
week), with most places aimed between 56-61 degrees. While
probably cannot totally rule out some very patchy fog
(especially in low-lying areas near rivers/creeks, the boundary
layer appears too dry to support formal forecast inclusion.
- TUES-TUES NIGHT:
We remain under very non-descript north-northwesterly flow aloft
(no significant disturbances passing through), as the remnants
of Beryl track well to our southeast-through-east from the Mid-
South up into the eastern Midwest. At the surface, the pressure
gradient remains weak, with resultant sustained winds again
largely under 10 MPH during the day (mainly out of the north-
northeast if anything). Like today, there is a VERY SMALL (non-
zero) chance of a rogue shower/thunderstorm or two trying to pop
during peak heating, but have left this chance under 20% and thus
out of the forecast. The main difference from today will be
slightly warmer temps, with most areas expected to top out 3-5
degrees warmer than today, This means widespread mid 80s in most
Neb zones, and upper 80s-low 90s more common near/south of the
KS border.
Tues night, the vast majority of the CWA will surely remain dry
(especially through at least 4 AM). However, especially the
latest HRRR is suggesting that some weak/mid level moisture
advection along the eastern fringes of a weak low level jet
COULD spark some spotty showers/possible weak thunderstorms (a
minor-but-typical case of "sunrise surprise"). Although
confidence in occurrence is not high, did decide to introduce a
generic 10% "slight chance of sprinkles" to most of our area to
account for this (later shifts can decide whether to remove or
"upgrade" to a formal shower mention). Like daytime highs, low
temps Tues night are also aimed 3-5 degrees warmer than the
previous night, with most places low-mid 60s.
- WED-WED NIGHT:
Our dry forecast continues for now, but various models at least
hint that especially our far eastern zones COULD be clipped by a
few afternoon showers/thunderstorms mainly focused across far
eastern NE into IA as a weak disturbance drops down from the
north. That being said, confidence is high that the vast
majority of the CWA remains dry, as high temps creep upward just
a touch more (most of the CWA somewhere 86-94...warmest in KS).
- THURS-FRI NIGHT:
While both the ECMWF/GFS suggest that especially Fri evening
could eventually necessitate some slight thunderstorm chances,
there is plenty of time for that to be added. Confidence is
certainly higher that our heat will gradually increase as the
far eastern fringes of higher heights/mid-upper level ridging
expanding across the western CONUS will edge a bit farther
eastward over the Central Plains. High temps Thurs are actually
similar to Wednesday, but by Friday it looks like low-mid 90s
will be more common in our Neb zones, with upper 90s mainly into
KS.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Our forecast remains dry and it heats up more, as western CONUS
upper ridging elongates more west-east and overspread the
Central Plains. Actual high temps increase into the mid-upper
90s most Neb zones, and more so 100-105 into KS. Fortunately,
heat index values do not look to be appreciably higher, but
particularly our extreme southeast zones (Mitchell County KS
area) are very preliminarily progged to touch Advisory criteria
of 105+ on Sunday afternoon).
- MONDAY:
Although still plenty of uncertainty given it`s a week out,
there are at least subtle hints that perhaps the weekend heat
eases slightly, as the latest ECMWF/GFS both suggest a slight
flattening of the upper ridge in response to a trough tracking
through eastern Canada/the Upper Great Lakes region. IF this
were to occur, it could send a weak cold front down into our
area and perhaps bring a return of at least spotty thunderstorm
chances. For now though, our official forecast leans on the
warmer side of things with highs similarly-hot to Sunday, and
one more round of widespread heat index near to slightly over
100.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Other than
FEW to SCT cumulus clouds at 6k-8k ft AGL this evening, skies
are expected to be clear through the overnight hours tonight and
through the morning Tuesday. A few cirrus clouds may return
Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be light and variable (5 kts or
less) through the period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Hickford
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
851 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The remnants of Hurricane Beryl will bring much-needed rain to
parts of central Illinois on Tuesday. At this time, it appears
the heaviest rainfall in excess of 2 inches will focus east of
the I-55 corridor.
- Heat and humidity will return by the weekend...with heat index
readings topping 100 degrees next Sunday/Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Radar trends indicate that storms that quickly developed will be
diminishing over the next couple of hours as they move to the
northeast. Adjustments to the pops/wx grids were needed to
accommodate for that. Slight chance of precip expected overnight
with precip increasing from the southwest as remnants of Beryl
advect into the CWA. Remainder of forecast looks fine. Update will
be out shortly.
Auten
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
1930z/230pm regional radar mosaic shows widely scattered
convection developing from just west of Galesburg to near Fort
Madison, Iowa...as well as across the far NE KILX CWA in northern
Vermilion County. These two locations will be the primary focus
for precip over the next few hours before additional activity well
to the south across the Ozarks lifts northeastward toward the
I-70 corridor by early this evening. Elsewhere around central
Illinois, it appears warm/dry weather will prevail through the
afternoon and evening.
As moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl begins to lift
northward, showers will develop across Missouri overnight...then
track into central Illinois toward dawn Tuesday. The precip will
become heavier/more widespread as the day progresses as the center
of Beryl quickly tracks northeastward into the Ohio River Valley.
Based on latest NHC forecasts and 12z CAM consensus, it appears
the remnant low will reach the Missouri bootheel by Tuesday
evening then central Indiana by Wednesday morning. This particular
path is favorable for widespread rainfall across much of central
Illinois...with the heaviest amounts likely setting up in a band
50-150 miles to the left (N/NW) of the track. It appears this
band will primarily focus east of the I-55 corridor where amounts
of 1.50 to 2.50 will be common. Isolated totals over 3 inches will
be possible in a few spots impacted by stronger convection. Meanwhile
rainfall totals will decrease rapidly further NW...with areas
west of the Illinois River seeing 0.25 or less.
There will be a risk for severe weather with Beryl as well:
however, the greatest probabilities for damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes will remain to the right (S/SE) of the low
track across the Ohio River Valley Tuesday afternoon/evening. Will
need to keep an eye on storms as far N/NW as I-70 for the
potential for gusty winds though.
Gradient winds will increase across all of central and southeast
Illinois as the low passes to the S/SE. While some CAMs such as
the HRRR are suggesting gusts potentially exceeding 40mph
along/east of I-57 by Tuesday night, think this is overdone due to
the time of day and lack of deep-layer mixing needed for such
gusts. Have however increased the wind forecast to feature
25-30mph gusts along/east of I-57 as Beryl tracks into central
Indiana.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
A few showers will linger across the E/SE CWA into Wednesday
morning before the low departs. After that, rain chances will be
minimal through the extended as upper heights gradually rise.
Models have been consistently showing an upper ridge trying to
build eastward into the Midwest by this weekend. While we will
need to watch for potential nocturnal MCS activity riding along
the N/NE periphery of the ridge, the main story later in the
forecast period will be the building heat and humidity. Air
temperatures will climb toward the 90 degree mark by Saturday,
then into the lower 90s by Sunday/Monday. Given the rainfall
expected from Beryl and the actively growing crops, rich boundary
layer moisture with surface dewpoints above 70 degrees will
likely push heat index readings well above 100 degrees by early
next week.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
All sites will be VFR to start, even with scattered showers
around. Scattered showers have developed along a weak front over
the Illinois river. So, PIA will have VCTS with TEMPO TS for a
couple of hours. Isolated showers and elsewhere, but may not
affect other sites this evening. Additional showers will become
more predominate late tonight and then continue tomorrow. Cig and
vis will also decrease tomorrow as the rain moves into the area
during the morning hours. Winds will become light this evening and
then south to southeast tomorrow morning. Wind speeds will remain
light, even tomorrow morning. Cigs could become lower tomorrow
afternoon, but did not add a new line with this issuance.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon
for ILZ066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
624 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Upper level water vapor satellite imagery shows a positively tilted
trough stretching from Colorado`s Front Range to southern Minnesota,
and a high pressure system persisting over California. The trough is
expected to shift eastward through the short term period. In its
wake, increasing subsidence will overspread the forecast area.
This afternoon, several outflow boundaries are evident on visible
imagery across eastern New Mexico, and a Cu field indicates some
instability in this region. With steering flow from the northwest
today, showers and thunderstorms that form in eastern NM may
propagate into the far southwest TXPH and western South Plains late
this afternoon and into the evening. However, with increasing
subsidence aloft, precipitation should wind down by midnight, with
decreasing clouds overnight. Radiational cooling due to the clear
skies and light winds should yield slightly cooler than normal low
temperatures. Given the moisture from this morning`s rains and the
relatively cooler lows, there is a potential for patchy fog around
sunrise, though confidence remains low. Tuesday`s highs return to
near average, with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than this
afternoon and winds remaining light.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
An upper shortwave will propagate through the area Tuesday evening,
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the far southwest
Panhandle and western South Plains. Notably the 12z HRRR indicates
storms making it as far as the I-27 corridor, thus 10-20% PoPs have
been extended farther east to account for this. However, severe
weather is not expected at this time. Another upper wave will move
through on Wednesday and this combined with slightly increased
forcing/low level winds will bring another round of potential
showers and storms for much of the forecast area. The cap will
become slightly stronger later in the week helping to curtail any
additional storm development and there are no mentionable PoPs
beyond Wednesday. However, there is still enough moisture present
across the area such that even with weak forcing, isolated storms
cannot completely be ruled out. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are
expected throughout much of the week with seasonal average highs
near the mid 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There
remains low confidence in patchy fog development tomorrow morning
in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW, with little to no model guidance
hinting at this outcome. However, given recent rainfall and light
winds overnight, it seems probable that we could see some patchy
fog development by sunrise near KLBB and KPVW terminals.
Confidence in this remains too low for a TAF mention at this time.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
817 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Another round of diurnal thundershowers Tuesday.
- Drier weather expected for the last half of this week, though
~25% chance Beryl`s remnants could impact the eastern UP.
- Hot weather possible into the weekend, with ~25% chance of
isolated high temperatures in the 90s over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level troffing
extending from Hudson Bay thru the central U.S. One shortwave is
over the Arrowhead of MN and western Lake Superior. Another
shortwave has moved from northeast Iowa earlier this morning into
northeast WI. Mid level clouds and a few sprinkles have kept
convection at bay over the west half of the U.P. thus far. With
better forcing over Green Bay and the eastern U.P. shra/tsra
activity has been more organized there. Clouds are now breaking up
over the western U.P. and beginning to see some shras/tsras popping
up over northern WI so still anticipate scattered shras/tsras to
develop across the west especially where any convergence is
maximized along the lake breeze. However, coverage will likely be
less widespread than earlier thought.
Any remaining convection will quickly dissipate with loss of heating
this evening and as upper trough axis finally pushes through the
area skies will clear for most. Some patchy fog will once again be
possible especially where there are any late afternoon rains.
Overnight temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
By Tuesday morning, cutoff 500mb high will be over the SW CONUS with
a ridge axis extending north to British Columbia, leading to 500mb
height anomalies of up to +17 approaching the Canadian Rockies per
the 12Z GEFS. The high will remain largely stationary throughout the
week, but the ridge axis to the north will rotate through the early
portions of the week as a Gulf of Alaska trough will kick the ridge
axis to the east. For the early portions of the week, the weak
shortwaves spilling down from the peak of the ridge with some help
from diurnal heating will allow for daily thundershower chances
until the ridge axis progresses far enough east for a surface high
pressure to dampen precipitation chances. The remnants of Beryl may
throw a wrench in the forecast as it passes south of the UP in the
back half of the week, but regardless, some hotter weather will
return to the UP for the weekend with 90s not out of the question
(10-25%) for typical hot spots.
Tuesday`s daily shortwave passing over the UP looks to be among the
weakest of the batch, which combined with general 500mb height
rises, will lead to pretty weak forcing. Destabilization is still
expected as 12Z HREF SBCAPE peaks to almost 1000 J/kg, so diurnal
thundershowers are expected once again, but with 15-25 kt of bulk
shear, the thundershowers should be pretty disorganized and should
be well sub-severe. Expect showers to quickly end after sunset as
radiational heating ends.
The complications come Wednesday through the end of the week as the
ridge axis moves over the Canadian Prairie and forces a 1015-1020mb
high pressure over the Ontario Hudson Bay shores Wednesday morning.
However, the remnants of Beryl will arrive in Indiana by Wednesday
morning. The strength and path of both Beryl and the ridge will have
implications on the forecast through the end of the week. Beryl may
keep the high pressure far enough away Wednesday afternoon that more
diurnal showers are possible (15-25%), but around Wednesday evening
is when ensemble spread greatly increases on Beryl (and the high to
the north) tracks Thursday and beyond. The most likely solution (and
the one that the forecast reflects) is a faster cluster of solutions
for Beryl that allows for the high pressure to build over the Great
Lakes and keep dry weather over the UP until at least Saturday.
However, there are still around 20-30% of slower solutions in the
ensembles that allows Beryl to slide north further, which could
bring showers to the far eastern UP. Regardless of solution, after
Beryl`s remnant low passes through the Great Lakes and flow aloft
shifts from northwesterly to be more westerly, hot temperatures
could return to the UP, with the NBM showing about a 25% chance of
isolated 90 degree highs and 5-10% chance of more widespread 90s
highs. The heat wont stick around forever, as model guidance
suggests that a Clipper low passing through northern Ontario may
bring rain showers and thunderstorms back across our area as soon as
Saturday and some cooler temperatures by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 816 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
VFR will be the predominant condition at IWD/CMX/SAW through the
period. Showers and thunderstorms are weakening across the UP and
will continue to do so through the rest of the evening. Some
lingering showers may be present near SAW for the next hour or so
(01-02z) but will clear out shortly after. Much like the past few
nights, fog and low cigs are likely to develop in areas that had
rain the evening prior. Confidence in periods of fog is highest at
SAW, which experienced the most rain this evening. Any fog that
forms will quickly burn off at sunrise. Light winds and VFR
conditions prevail through the rest of the period. Diurnally
driven afternoon thunderstorms are possible (25-30%) in the
interior UP tomorrow, but were not mentioned in the TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Light winds of 20 knots or less continue through the rest of this
week into early next week as a high pressure block over the western
US slowly trudges eastwards with time throughout the next several
days. As a result, waves will be less than 2 feet throughout the
forecast period. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing over the eastern
lake along the nearshores and will continue into this evening. In
addition, some patchy fog could be seen over the lake through
tomorrow, especially in the wake of precipitation.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...BW/Thompson
MARINE...GS/TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
652 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The remnants of Beryl will impact the region beginning tonight
through Wednesday morning.
- Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms (damaging winds and a
few tornadoes) will be the main Beryl-related hazards for the
region.
- The region will dry out and warm up for the latter half of the
week through next weekend, with typical summertime heat and
humidity returning to the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Tonight...Numerous thunderstorms have already developed across
southeast MO into far west KY this afternoon. These storms are
developing as the outer fringes of Tropical Storm Beryl begin to
interact with a trough over the Central Plains. These storms
have already produced flash flooding in Wayne County, MO, thanks
to PWAT values of 2.1" per the latest RAP analysis.
Additionally, there has been enough 0-3 km CAPE present to allow
for a few funnel clouds and landspout tornadoes to develop over
parts of southeast MO and far southern IL. Have hoisted a
Special Weather Statement to lift awareness of this potential
through 23z. A marginal severe risk with isolated damaging
winds and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible through
late this evening. The latest CAMs show this activity spreading
NE across the northern half of the forecast area tonight
followed by a brief lull in activity during the overnight hours.
Low temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday and Wednesday...The remnants of Beryl will pass through
the region during this time, posing both a significant flash
flood and severe risk for much of the area. PWAT values will
surge to 2.0-2.5" inches of the area with very deep warm cloud
layers. Rainfall processes will extremely efficient and rainfall
rate of 1-2" per hour will be possible across much of the area.
The heaviest rains will fall near and just west Beryl`s remnant
circulation, which will include most of southeast MO, southern
IL, far southwest IN, and most of far west and northwest KY.
This is where a Flood Watch will be in effect from late tonight
through late Tuesday night. Areas further to the east will see
less sustained and more scattered shower and storm activity,
which will limit the flooding potential.
Latest WPC QPF still shows a broad broad of 2-4" through late
Tuesday night over the watch area. However, concern is growing
that a small corridor higher amounts (potentially 4-6" or more)
will fall somewhere in the Flood Watch area. This would lead to
considerable flash flooding if realized. Very concerned about
campgrounds along flash-flood prone streams and creeks in and
near the Ozark Foothills. Made sure to include a special mention
of that hazard in the Flood Watch update.
The other hazard tomorrow will be the severe potential,
especially over western KY, southwest IN, the MO Bootheel, and
southeast IL. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for this area
with the latest Day 2 outlook. The highly-sheared environment
combined with at least modest destabilization will allow for
scattered low-topped supercells and linear features with
mesovortex elements to develop early Tuesday afternoon near the
OH/MS River confluence and race to the northeast. A few
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards.
Depending on the exact path Beryl`s circulation will take, the
severe corridor may still shift a bit west or east.
By Wednesday morning, the rainfall will exit the region from
southwest to northeast as the remnant low exits the region. This
will bring lowering PoPs and clearing skies during the evening
hours. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s with
the highest values west of the Mississippi River where clouds
will thin first. Gradient winds may gust up to 20-25 mph during
this time, but impacts will be very marginal at most. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the middle to upper
60s.
Thursday through Sunday...A return to more typical midsummer
weather is forecast for the rest of the work week into next
weekend. High pressure will build over the region during this
period, and a warming trend in temperatures will follow. High
temperatures Thursday will reach the middle to upper 80s
Thursday and Friday, followed by highs in the lower to middle
90s this weekend, with heat index values again near 100
degrees. Overnight lows will generally be near seasonal values
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
SHRA/TSRA have almost played themselves out early this evening.
Will leave an hour or two of VFR rain at MVN and OWB, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night along with
light winds. Conditions will deteriorate late tonight into the
morning hours as T.S. Beryl`s remnants arrive from the
southwest. Based the character and timing of precipitation on
the 18Z HRRR. but minor changes in the path of the storm system
will impact precipitation, ceilings, and wind direction and
speed. At least IFR visibilities are likely with most showers
and storms, and IFR ceilings will attempt to spread eastward,
but will likely stay west of the storm center`s track.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
for INZ081-085-086.
KY...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
for KYZ001>008-010-014-018.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
547 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon over the San
Luis Valley and southeast mountains. Seasonably cool for the
plains.
- Daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
immediately around the mountains for the long term period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Updated to adjust precipitation chances across the higher
terrain this evening. Radar has been rather sparse in coverage,
with the strongest activity out over the souther San Juan Range.
More isolated activity continues near Monarch Pass, and over the
southern Sangre de Cristo Range. Thunderstorm activity should
dissipate through 9 PM. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024
The upper-level trough will continue marching east aloft today,
allowing for some isolated-scattered thunderstorms to form across
our southeast mountains and parts of the San Luis Valley this
afternoon. The CAMs are a bit spread on CAPE, ranging between about
200 and 1200 J/kg this afternoon at the base of the valley. Limiting
factors here may be moisture and/or mixing, which makes sense based
on how little coverage the HRRR has (it tends to overmix moisture
out). Shear, on the other hand, looks decent, with models showing
around 25-30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. Looking at forecast
soundings, showers and storms appear high-based, with gusty winds
and hail being our biggest chances for impacts. HREF members do
hoist scattered coverage by late-afternoon, mainly across the
mountains, but with a few storms over the southern part of the
valley as well. Overall, model consensus does call for a few
stronger to possibly severe storms. For the eastern plains, most
models show little to no precip coverage, though a rogue shower or
two could drift off of the mountains later in the day today.
For Tuesday, temperatures will begin to warm, with high temperatures
climbing into the high-80s to low-90s across the plains. The eastern
plains will remain mostly dry with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains during the afternoon hours. A few
storms could drift onto the plains later in the evening as the
retreating trough axis moves further east, but at this time chances
are somewhat low.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Tuesday Night - Sunday: The long term forecast is holding steady,
with afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms, and warming
temperatures anticipated. A ridge of high pressure will slowly drift
towards the area, and eventually become stationary during the later
part of this period. Confidence continues to remain high to very
high (>60%) given consistency in model guidance and strong
agreement/support within ensemble model guidance. Flow will remain
northwesterly through much of the week as the high pressure treks
east, and then become northerly to northeasterly as the high
pressure sits over the Colorado and Utah region. Given the
increasing subsidence with this feature, drier conditions are
expected for most, though moisture will remain in place given the
lack of any major synoptic waves. With that said though, while
forcing will be weaker with this pattern, modest orographic lift,
aided by diurnal upsloping, and the moisture still in place, will
allow for daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms
to blossom along and immediately around the mountains. Any
precipitation present is expected to dissipate during the evening
hours as instability lessens and orographics aided by upslope
lessens. As for temperatures a warming trend is anticipated. For
much of the week, temperatures will warm to around seasonal values,
and then likely increase to above seasonal values over the weekend
as the ridge sits over the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds be fairly light and east-
southeasterly at all three TAF sites through a majority of the
period, with some scattered mid-level cloud cover moving in late in
the period. Some very isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are
possible tomorrow, mainly along the higher terrain near KPUB and
KALS, with best chances for showers and storms in the vicinity of
either station coming in after 21Z tomorrow afternoon. Main risks
with storms tomorrow will be gusty and erratic outflow winds and
lightning.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
104 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
* Prolonged heatwave continues with major HeatRisk through much of
this week. Some relief finally arrives this weekend, but still
will be July hot.
* Winds begin to edge upward late week and into the weekend as we
start to cool down. Areas of smoke and haze will be present due
to wildfires in CA and Oregon, but TBD on extent.
* With the heat this week, isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out. Better storm chances Friday and into the weekend as
moisture increases.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* Only so many ways we can say it`s hot out there. Our long-
duration heatwave continues with additional record breaking
temperatures a high probability. Please see climate section
below for details. The dry air mass has allowed for nights to
cool, but overnight lows are still 10-15 degrees above normal,
which exacerbates the heat threat, especially for those without
AC. After having fairly stagnant temps through much of the
week, a gradual cooling trend is expected Friday and through the
weekend. By Sunday, high temps may only be 3-5 degrees above
normal, or more typical July heat.
* With this "cool" down, winds will ramp up. Typical afternoon
breezes with gusts 20-25 mph through Wednesday, will increase to
25-35 mph by Thursday-Friday and continue through the weekend.
This brings an increase in fire weather concerns, especially
given the extremely hot and dry conditions and state of the
fuels.
* Fires burning in California, Oregon, and Nevada will bring areas
of smoke and haze to the region, as we are already seeing today.
Based on cameras around the region, and the latest from the
HRRR smoke, the densest smoke is near the Oregon border, in
addition to in the vicinity of the Royal Fire in the Tahoe
National Forest. Fire activity in the coming days will determine
the extent of smoke and haze.
* When it gets this hot, it takes almost no moisture to pop a
stray shower/thunderstorm. Higher resolution models bring low
end probabilities, 10-15%, to portions of Mono and Mineral
Counties this afternoon and evening, with similar chances
through Thursday. By Friday and through the weekend, ensemble
meteograms indicate PWATs rising to 0.5-0.8". This bumps up
storm chances to 15-25%, with probabilities increasing from
south to north through the weekend. While PWATs in that range
would typically indicate wetter storms, given how hot and dry it
has been lately, would not be surprised to see dry lightning
strikes, especially along the transition zone of the moisture.
Gusty and erratic outflow winds would be a major concern as
well. -Dawn
&&
.AVIATION...
* Typical W/NW afternoon and early evening breezes today and
tomorrow, with gusts to around 20 knots at most airfields. MMH
closer to 25 knots.
* Buildups expected today over the Sierra near MMH/BIH. Can`t rule
out an isolated high based shower but probability 15% or less.
* Potential smoke and haze impacts today, tonight, and tomorrow to
TRK and RNO/RTS from the Royal Fire, but low confidence on
specific visibility and ceiling reductions. Also smoke from Shelly
Fire could impacts areas north of SVE to AAT.
* Record hot temperatures most of this week will yield density
altitude concerns for some aircraft at both mountain and valley
airfields.
-Chris
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High and Warm Low Temperatures for July 7th-13th at Reno-
Tahoe International Airport (KRNO)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Date Forecast(High/Low) Record High(Year) Record Warm Low(Year)
------ ----------------- ---------------- --------------------
July 8 105 104F (2017) 71F (2014)
July 9 105/69 104F (2021) 69F (2021)
July 10 105/68 108F (2002) 72F (2021)
July 11 106/69 108F (2002) 74F (2014)
July 12 104/70 104F (2005,2021) 74F (2002)
July 13 101/71 103F (2014) 70F (2014,2018)
Current record for consecutive days of 100F or greater at KRNO is 10
days, set in July 2021 and July 2005. With 4 days of 100+ so far in
this streak (today being day 5), there is a good chance of tying
this record but latest NBM probabilities only show a 50% chance
to reach 100 degrees on Sunday, which would be needed to exceed.
The record for consecutive days of 105 or greater is currently 2
days, which has occurred 7 times in climate history, most
recently occurring yesterday. This record of most consecutive days
of 105 or greater will likely be broken today, and the streak may
continue several more days given a 75-80% chance to reach 105 or
greater through Thursday.
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV... Excessive Heat Warning until 10 AM PDT Friday
NVZ001-003>005.
CA...Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Friday CAZ070-071-073.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
759 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Historic heat wave will persist across the Desert
Southwest through the week with numerous daily and all-time records
at jeopardy. This weekend, monsoonal moisture will usher into the
region, which will allow temperatures to gradually moderate as
precipitation chances increase across northwestern Arizona.
&&
.UPDATE...Another day, more record high temperatures broken with the
extreme heat. Today, 6 new record high temperatures were set across
the region as high temperatures soared 10-15 degrees above normal
this afternoon. Barstow-Daggett, CA not only set a new record high
temperature for today, but also tied their all-time record
temperature of 118F for the second time this week. Note that these
records are all preliminary as the data needs to be certified by the
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
COntinued heat is the story for tonight. Believe it or not, it was
actually slight cooler today compared to yesterday. Despite this,
overnight temperatures will be mild and comparable to last night.
There is about a 40% chance that Las Vegas doesn`t drop below 90
degrees overnight. Remember that heat is a compounding issue so
when temperatures overnight do not drop to more comfortable levels
and allow your body a break from the heat, the risk for heat related
impacts and illnesses increases. Please take care to protect from
the heat even overnight like finding air conditioning and drinking
extra water to keep yourselves safe as the heatwave continues
through the rest of the week.
Outside the main story of the extreme temperatures, a shower showers
were able to develop in Esmeralda County this evening. These have
not resulted in any impacts and should end after sunset. Tonight
will be mostly clear outside of the decaying clouds form the showers
in Southern Great Basin area. Light winds are expected across the
region by midnight.
--Nickerson--
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1222 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024
.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.
Yesterday, 6 locations experienced record daily maximum
temperatures with 3 locations breaking or tying their all-time
maximum temperature records! Las Vegas broke their all-time record
of 117 - which had occurred 5 times - with 120 degrees. Bishop,
Barstow- Daggett, and Desert Rock all tied their all-time records
with 111, 118, and 114, respectively. Historic temperatures will
continue through the week as afternoon high temperatures range 10
to 15 degrees above seasonal averages.
The Excessive Heat Warning for much of the area including Heat
Advisories for the eastern Sierra slopes, White Mountains (Inyo),
Sheep Range (Clark), and Spring Mountains (Clark) have all been
extended to include Friday as well, as HeatRisk values remain
elevated into the Major and Extreme levels across the region. This
extension into Friday will result in a tie for the longest duration
Excessive Heat Warning for both Las Vegas and for Death Valley with
10 days. This has occurred 2 other times in 2022 and in 2017.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, afternoon highs today may
range a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, as we experience a
very modest drop in 500 mb heights and marginal cold air advection.
Regardless, all 7 climate sites remain at risk of breaking or tying
their daily temperature records again today, as temperatures will
still be stifling.
20 lightning strikes were noted in the southern Sierra yesterday as
a result of pop-up convection. The HRRR and the FV3 support
convection returning to northern Inyo County into Esmeralda County
this afternoon, with strong gusty winds and frequent lightning
possible. Due to the dry low levels, heavy rain and flash flooding
are not expected.
The strong area of high pressure over the region will remain
directly over southern Nevada through the week before it slowly
meanders eastward heading into the weekend. This shift to the east
will exhibit a classic monsoon pattern, as it will allow moisture
to flux northward up the Colorado River Valley. Both the GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble means indicate over 1.00" of PWAT in Las Vegas by
Sunday. As a result of this moisture, temperatures will be allowed
to moderate, with the stretch of our heat-related headlines
coming to a close.
Precipitation amounts are currently confined to northwestern Arizona
and far southern Nevada where slight PoPs exist each afternoon
Saturday through Monday, though this forecast may be somewhat
inflated by model climatology. Will continue to assess the risk of
thunderstorms in the forecast area as we move through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeast breezes of 6-9 knots through
the early afternoon, with occasional gusts to 15 knots. 20% chance
of sustained winds of 10+ knots. By late afternoon, winds weaken and
become more southeasterly, possibly becoming variable in direction.
After sunset, winds return to a typical southwest direction and
persist through the night. Temperatures remain above 100 degrees
through 07z, peaking this afternoon between 22z-00z around 115
degrees. Mostly clear skies with just a cloud or two possible over
the Spring Mountains.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Generally light and diurnal winds at the Las Vegas
Valley sites today, with occasional gusts up to 15 knots possible
this morning. At KBIH, light and variable conditions until breezy
west winds arrive around 00z. FEW-SCT mid-level clouds, primarily
over the high terrain. Cannot rule out a stray vicinity shower/storm
north of the airport this afternoon as rain chances stand around
20%. Light northwest breezes anticipated overnight. At KDAG, breezy
west winds arrive around 01z-02z with gusts of 20-25 knots. In the
Colorado River Valley, north winds with gusts of 15-25 knots this
morning and afternoon. Winds subside around sunset, becoming light
and variable late tonight. Very hot conditions persist, with
afternoon temps largely in the 110-120 range.
&&
.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.
The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
MAX MON, JUL 8 TUE, JUL 9 WED, JUL 10 THU, JUL 11
Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr)
Las Vegas 114(2021)* 116(2021)* 117(2021)* 116(1959)*
Bishop 109(2021)* 108(2021)* 111(2021)* 109(2021)*
Needles 120(2017)* 120(2021)* 122(2021)* 120(2020)*
Daggett 114(2021)* 113(2021)* 118(2021)* 117(2021)*
Kingman 108(2017)* 111(2021)* 111(2021)* 110(1961)*
Desert Rock 108(2017)* 111(2021)* 111(2021)* 114(2021)*
Death Valley 128(1913)* 130(2021)* 134(1913) 129(1913)*
The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the
forecast).
WARM MIN MON, JUL 8 TUE, JUL 9 WED, JUL 10 THU, JUL 11
Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr)
Las Vegas 92(2017)* 93(2021)* 94(2021) 91(2012)*
Bishop 70(1991) 72(1975) 71(1985) 70(2013)
Needles 95(2018) 95(2021) 98(2021) 96(2021)
Daggett 84(2021)* 85(2017)* 88(2021) 90(2021)
Kingman 84(2014) 82(2017) 79(1913)* 81(2021)*
Desert Rock 81(2021)* 86(1985) 82(2021)* 87(2021)
Death Valley 105(1921) 104(2021) 100(1927)* 105(1920)
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Woods
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