Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/08/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
729 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Updated forecast to remove freezing rain and freezing drizzle
mention from the afternoon forecast package as well as to include
the 00Z aviation discussion. Forecast Builder erroneously
inserted two freezing PoT grids as it sometimes likes to do.
Remainder of forecast remains on track with no further updates
planned.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024
A moist backdoor cold front will trigger strong to severe
thunderstorms over northeast and east central areas tonight. The
front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a
gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley
commencing around midnight tonight, then continuing through
Monday. The strongest gusts may reach up to 55 mph below Tijeras
Canyon in Albuquerque. Much cooler temperatures area forecast
across northern, central, and eastern areas Monday. Greater
thunderstorm coverage is forecast mainly east of the continental
divide Monday through Wednesday, then from the east slopes of the
central mountain chain westward Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024
High pressure aloft remains over CA while an upper level trough
continues to carve out over the northern Great Plains this
afternoon. This has kept northwesterly flow aloft over NM with very
dry air having invaded a large majority of the forecast area as seen
by plummeting dewpoints in the teens, 20s and 30s and falling
PWATs. The exception is in northeastern and east central NM where a
moist backdoor front associated with the northern Great Plains
trough has infiltrated. The front is bumping up against the Sangre
de Cristos and convective initiation is getting underway amid the
moist upslope flow. Lots of directional wind shear is in place with
1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE per the latest RAP analysis, so strong to
perhaps severe cells will likely carry on into at least the evening,
if not the early morning hours.
The CAMs keep activity focused over the northeastern quadrant of the
state, not really overtaking much of the TX/OK panhandle until after
midnight. Given recent high resolution and CAMs often delayed
representation of CI, this could be too late of a display of storms
with cells potentially expanding farther south of I-40 by the
midnight to early morning hours, so POPs were expanded a bit into
east central zones. Synoptic high pressure would already be building
over eastern NM and west TX, and how the convection fares could
potentially intensify this if widespread convection breaks out over
west TX a few hours earlier (evening) than modeled. This would
hasten and strengthen the gap/canyon wind, but models and MOS
guidance are not on board with this scenario. This makes it tricky
with the High Wind Watch for the ABQ metro, but for now have opted
to just convert it to a Wind Advisory.
As we get closer to dawn and into the late morning eastern zones
should begin to stabilize more, transitioning any precip from a
convective mode to more of a stratiform one. This could yield some
light rain or even drizzle in some east central to southeastern
zones into late Monday morning with the stable conditions limiting,
but likely not fully eliminating thunder opportunities even into the
afternoon. This will put the focus for convective initiation over
the northern mountains early Monday afternoon, and while CAMs are
not overly enthused, the Continental Divide could be another
initiation point as moist easterly upslope flow would be favorable
on the east faces. With the northern plains trough moving farther
east and the upper high setting up over southern CA, the flow aloft
would remain out of the north northeast with lots of directional
shear to make opportunities for severe storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024
A moist southeasterly return flow at the surface will enable
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop both
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with the greatest coverage of
cells along the central mountain chain and over the southwest
mountains. With a mid-level high pressure system centered over the
Great Basin, storms will generally move from north to south over
the forecast area both days. Perturbations in the northerly flow
aloft will ride over an axis of higher instability and favorable
bulk shear for at least a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms east
of the central mountain chain both days. Temperatures will trend
warmer both days while remaining a few to several degrees below
1991-2020 averages across the east.
Surface winds are currently projected to veer more out of the
south on Thursday and Friday causing moisture to trend lower over
eastern areas and higher over western areas each day. This will
result in a downtick in thunderstorm coverage from the central
mountain chain eastward, and shift the focus for convection more
over western areas. High temperatures will mostly continue
warming in the east as well, with readings roughly around 30-year
averages areawide by Friday. The upper high is forecast to migrate
westward over UT, shifting the storm motion from northwest to
southeast Thursday and moreso Friday.
The upper high is forecast to recenter over CO by Saturday causing
NM storms to move a bit more toward the west. However, there will
could be a downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity on
Saturday as drier air and an area of subsidence move over
southeast and central parts of the forecast area ahead of an
easterly wave tracking northwestward over northern Mexico.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings will return to much of the
eastern half of the state overnight thanks to moist easterly
upslope flow behind a backdoor front. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will continue to fire along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo mountains tonight, moving southeastward over the
northeast highlands and northeast plains. This same front will
push west through the canyons of the central mountain chain late
this evening, making it to near the AZ border by morning. Gusty
east canyon winds of 35 to 45 kt will be possible in the ABQ
metro downwind of Tijeras Canyon including KABQ between 08/0600Z
and 08/1600Z. Strong east and southeast winds continue through
Monday, gradually diminishing during the afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to favor the central
mountain chain eastward Monday afternoon with isolated activity
between the Rio Grande Valley and the Continental Divide.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are starting to get underway over
northwestern NM this afternoon as unseasonably strong west northwest
winds continue to draw hotter and drier air into the state. Much of
the remaining areas of western and central NM are also seeing dry
and hot conditions, but the winds are not quite as strong. In
northeastern and east central NM, a moist backdoor cold front is
currently invading from the northeast, bringing gusty and shifting
winds, but the arrival of higher humidity is eliminating concerns
for critical fire weather behind it. Storms will continue building
and developing over northeastern and some east central portions of
NM this evening and perhaps even after midnight. While this is
occurring the front will accelerate westward into the Rio Grande
valley and toward the Continental Divide. This could produce strong
canyon winds with gusts of 35 to 55 mph immediately downwind of
vulnerable gaps and canyons tonight. The front will increase
moisture and lead to a more active shower and thunderstorm pattern
into Monday and the rest of the week (outside of the far
northwestern and west central zones). This wetter and generally more
tranquil pattern (from a wind standpoint) will keep fire weather
concerns at bay while offering scattered footprints of soaking
rainfall.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 57 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 44 85 44 87 / 0 30 20 30
Cuba............................ 52 82 50 85 / 0 30 20 20
Gallup.......................... 49 89 51 90 / 0 0 0 10
El Morro........................ 54 83 53 84 / 0 10 20 30
Grants.......................... 52 85 51 87 / 0 10 20 30
Quemado......................... 54 87 55 88 / 0 10 20 50
Magdalena....................... 59 82 56 84 / 0 20 20 50
Datil........................... 56 83 54 84 / 0 20 20 50
Reserve......................... 54 94 52 92 / 5 10 10 60
Glenwood........................ 67 101 65 96 / 10 10 10 70
Chama........................... 44 77 44 79 / 5 60 40 50
Los Alamos...................... 57 76 54 79 / 10 70 30 60
Pecos........................... 54 72 51 81 / 30 70 30 70
Cerro/Questa.................... 39 75 38 78 / 30 80 30 70
Red River....................... 42 64 39 70 / 30 80 30 80
Angel Fire...................... 41 67 37 72 / 40 80 30 70
Taos............................ 49 78 46 82 / 20 70 30 50
Mora............................ 49 68 46 76 / 40 80 30 70
Espanola........................ 55 84 54 87 / 10 60 30 30
Santa Fe........................ 57 76 53 82 / 20 70 40 60
Santa Fe Airport................ 57 79 53 84 / 10 50 30 40
Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 83 59 89 / 5 40 30 40
Albuquerque Heights............. 63 85 60 91 / 0 20 20 20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 87 59 93 / 0 10 10 20
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 85 60 92 / 0 20 10 20
Belen........................... 61 87 57 92 / 0 10 20 30
Bernalillo...................... 64 86 59 92 / 5 30 20 20
Bosque Farms.................... 61 86 57 92 / 0 10 20 20
Corrales........................ 63 87 59 92 / 0 20 20 20
Los Lunas....................... 62 87 58 92 / 0 10 10 20
Placitas........................ 61 81 57 87 / 5 30 20 40
Rio Rancho...................... 64 86 59 92 / 0 20 20 20
Socorro......................... 65 90 61 94 / 0 10 20 40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 75 53 83 / 5 40 30 40
Tijeras......................... 58 77 54 85 / 5 30 30 40
Edgewood........................ 55 76 52 86 / 5 40 40 40
Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 75 49 86 / 10 40 40 40
Clines Corners.................. 52 69 49 80 / 20 50 30 50
Mountainair..................... 55 75 51 84 / 5 30 30 50
Gran Quivira.................... 55 76 52 84 / 5 40 30 50
Carrizozo....................... 62 83 58 87 / 0 40 30 60
Ruidoso......................... 55 73 52 77 / 0 60 40 70
Capulin......................... 50 67 47 76 / 70 60 10 40
Raton........................... 52 72 49 80 / 70 60 10 40
Springer........................ 56 73 52 81 / 60 60 20 50
Las Vegas....................... 53 67 49 76 / 60 70 30 60
Clayton......................... 57 74 54 82 / 60 30 10 10
Roy............................. 57 70 52 79 / 70 40 20 40
Conchas......................... 61 75 57 87 / 70 40 20 20
Santa Rosa...................... 60 72 55 82 / 40 40 20 30
Tucumcari....................... 60 76 55 86 / 70 50 20 5
Clovis.......................... 62 77 58 87 / 30 70 30 10
Portales........................ 62 78 58 87 / 20 70 40 10
Fort Sumner..................... 63 77 58 87 / 20 50 30 10
Roswell......................... 70 83 65 92 / 5 60 50 20
Picacho......................... 62 77 59 84 / 5 60 40 50
Elk............................. 57 78 55 83 / 0 60 40 60
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Monday for
NMZ219.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
921 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (15-25%) remain in the
forecast on both Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours across northeastern SD into west central MN.
- Heat and humidity will be on the increase through the week into
the weekend. By Friday/Saturday temperatures will be about 5 to 10
degrees above average, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to near 70 with dewpoints well into the 60s
to near 70 degrees.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Still some shower and thunderstorm activity occurring across parts
of central South Dakota, but expect this to diminish and go away
by 04Z or so. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
The longwave trough remains over the central and northern CONUS with
the axis from northern MN and southwestward through the Southern
Plains through 00Z. As of 1PM, satellite imagery indicates a vort
max/mid low spinning over northern MN along with a vort
max/shortwave over north central SD. This shortwave and energy
behind the low/vort max in MN will aid in lift for convection. Still
pretty moist out as PWAT values are around an inch which is around
average for this time of year, according to NAEFS. Surface dewpoints
are currently in the upper 50s to the lower 60s this afternoon with
700mb temps around 2-3 degrees. Daytime heating continues to steepen
low level lapse rates with MU/MLCape values reaching to around 1000-
1300 j/kg or so with values up to around 1500 j/kg over far
northeastern to eastern SD into west central MN per HREF. Rap values
seem to be running a little higher. Several soundings indicate more
skinny CAPE profiles with mid level lapse rates marginal around 6-
6.5C/km-1 and minimal shear. It is interesting to note that NST
parameter at 18Z ranges from 0.5 across the CWA to values of 2-3
over northeastern SD into southeastern ND. So cold air
funnels/landspouts could be possible as we have surface vorticity/0-
3km ML Cape values of 100-170j/kg (highest over northeastern SD) on
top of each other, per SPC meso page.
HREF/CAMS indicates convection chances over much of the CWA through
this evening with pops ranging from 30-40%. Storm mode will be more
pulse "hit and miss" summer type thunderstorms, with storm motion
cyclonically around vort max and behind the low which is why the
grids are more widespread in coverage. Severe threat remains low as
2-5UH>75m2s2 does not show anything exciting compared to yesterday.
With the cooler air aloft and thermodynamics mentioned above, some
of these storms could produce small hail (if strong enough) with the
main threat being lightning. Pops will diminish with sunset.
For Monday, the longwave trough pushes just a bit east with a high
pressure system centered over the Rockies in the morning and over
the central and northern Plains by the evening. Once again daytime
heating and Cape up to 1000 J/kg (which is mainly limited over the
far eastern CWA, closer to northern axis of trough) along with dp`s
in the lower 60s, could bring some isolated storms in the afternoon
and evening. With this limited instability and skinny cape profiles,
pops chances are a bit lower ranging around 15% (manually added).
Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s/60 and highs for Monday
ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
With minimal differences among ensemble clusters, confidence in the
large scale pattern for the long term is relatively high and this
carries over to the other mass fields such as the temperature and
wind forecast. There is greater uncertainty in the precipitation
potential however.
The northern plains will initially be in an upper level northwest
flow pattern as a SW CONUS high builds. The surface pressure pattern
remains weak but models suggest low level moisture, with 60+
dewpoints (especially across our eastern CWA) will be fairly
persistent. This does introduce some uncertainty into the blended
model depiction of a mostly dry forecast through mid week. Instead,
we could be on the repeat cycle of afternoon pulse convection.
Either way, coverage and POPs would be quite low. Continued the
previous trend of including at least a low POP on Tuesday, however
this may need to be considered Wednesday and Thursday as well.
It will be late in the week before the ridge of high pressure
traverses eastward and above normal air spreads across the plains
states. Definitely not a high amplitude ridge however, and models
suggest a parade of ridge riders traversing the pattern. LREF
probabilities of 700 mb temps exceeding 14C are highest on Saturday
and Sunday, generally ranging from 70-80% from our southwest CWA to
30-50% across our northeast CWA. This suggests a fairly healthy CAP
for the weekend. Likewise, probabilities of surface temps exceeding
90 degrees is greatest for our western CWA, however current ensemble
progs suggest a 50% chance or less of realizing heat advisory temps.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
this evening. Once the sun goes down, the precipitation will come
to an end with the loss of daytime heating. Periods of MVFR vsbys
are possible with the thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the area tonight and through the day Monday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible over the
next few days, with rain chances gradually lessening for
mid/late week. Most hours will be dry, though, and the risk
for organized heavy rain/severe weather is low.
- Near to below average temperatures early this week will trend upward
by next weekend.
- Minor to moderate flooding continues along the Mississippi
River, but river levels will be falling gradually over the
coming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
This Evening - Wednesday:
GOES water vapor channel and RAP 500 mb heights show a broad trough
extending from the northern Rockies into the western Great Lakes
early this afternoon, with several embedded vorticity maxima
noted across the Dakotas into Minnesota. Surface analysis early
this afternoon showed a diffuse boundary across western IA/MN.
SPC mesoanalysis indicated pockets of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along
with 20-25 kts of effective shear as of 2 pm. Within minimal
inhibition, isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible
this afternoon into tonight, although lift to help generate
organized storms this afternoon is nebulous. There is a
slightly stronger synoptic lift signal overnight from northeast
Iowa into central Wisconsin ahead of the trough axis. Any
storms should be subsevere, although gusty winds/small hail
cannot be ruled out. Although rain amounts overall will be light
spatially, localized amounts of 1 to 2" could occur with slow
moving storms. With light boundary layer flow, patchy fog could
develop early Monday, but confidence is low given uncertainty in
cloud/precip coverage.
Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible Monday
afternoon with diurnal destabilization beneath the mid-level cold
pool/trough. Low, mainly diurnal shower/storm chances continue
into mid-week within the broadly cyclonic flow. However, severe
storm potential should be low as both shear/instability are
fairly marginal. Will have to monitor the remnants of Beryl, as
guidance lifts this system northeastward by mid-week towards
the Great Lakes trough. Current multi-model global ensemble
forecasts suggest the bulk of the rainfall will skirt south
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley with less than a 10% chance for at least 1/2 an inch of
rain across far southwest Wisconsin on Wednesday. Temps through
mid-week will generally be near to below average.
Thursday - Sunday:
Mid-level heights will begin to build late this week into the coming
weekend as the broad troughing across the Upper MS Valley loses its
influence. As this occurs, there is little signal for meaningful
rainfall late this coming work week. By next weekend, increasing
quasi-zonal to northwest mid-level flow may develop across the Upper
Midwest along the periphery of the strong ridge centered over the
Rockies. Any embedded shortwaves interacting with the moist,
unstable environment could result in showers/storms, but
predictability in these details is very low at this time. Otherwise,
the pattern favors rebounding temps back above average heading into
the weekend, although spread in the model suite also increases,
especially heading northward, likely due to uncertainty in the
amplitude/orientation of the flow and timing of shortwave
troughs/convection. However, some locations could be back up near 90
by later in the week or next weekend. NBM probabilities for 90F
temps increase to 20 to 60% across parts of northeast Iowa,
southwest into central Wisconsin and the immediate Mississippi River
Valley by next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Showers and storms continue into the overnight hours primarily
from southeast Minnesota through central Wisconsin. Main impact
has been ponding water on roadways and scattered thunder.
Primary aviation concern remains to be the potential for valley
fog. Highest confidence will be in the more prone areas of
Wisconsin River Valley and tributaries. Low to moderate
confidence in Mississippi River Valley and TAF site at KLSE. Low
level winds may remain strong enough to abate or limit temporal
and spatial extent. Have leaned pessimistic with IFR
visibilities given recent rains and overnight lingering humidity
with draped frontal boundary.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
The Mississippi River is noting falling river levels from north
of Brownsville, MN with Lake City, MN falling below flood stage.
Locations near crest from Brownsville, MN on south to
Guttenberg, IA. River stages are expected to fall into this
week from northeast Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin on northward
along the Mississippi River. Generally lighter rainfall amounts
of up to around 0.5" from now through Tuesday are expected,
with locally higher amounts possible with any storms that pass
over. May have to watch the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl for
more substantial rainfall across southwestern WI/northeast IA
for Tuesday night and Wednesday. However, the probabilities for
heavier rainfall with this system remain low as guidance keeps
much of the heavier rainfall farther south and east of the local
area.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...Naylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1037 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible tonight.
- On and off chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
Monday through Wednesday. Although the severe weather threat
remains low, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
- Some rivers, creeks, and streams across east-central Wisconsin
will continue to run above bankfull due to recent rainfall.
- A warmer and drier summer pattern may be in store toward the
end of next week and into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Monday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show several
shortwaves spinning over the northern Plains and northern
Mississippi Valley. Northeast Wisconsin is positioned on the
eastern periphery of these systems with moisture advection
occurring in the low levels, and difficult to resolve impulses
embedded with southwest flow aloft. These impulses have
supplemented the 1000-2000 j/kg of surface based instability
analyzed across the region to generate scattered showers and
storms. Coverage has been highest over northwest Wisconsin, but
think coverage will continue to increase over north-central and
northeast Wisconsin as we approach peak heating late this
afternoon. A strong to near severe storm is possible given the
deep layer shear of 25-30 kts. Focus of this forecast is storm
trends and heavy precip potential.
Storm trends: After a period of storms over north-central WI this
afternoon, convective allowing models indicate that a broken line
of storms will move into north-central Wisconsin around mid to
late evening along a weak cold front advancing eastward. These
storms should be weakening as diurnal instability is lost. There
may be sufficient instability leftover for a strong storm to
occur, but severe weather is not expected.
A second area of showers and embedded storms remains expected to
move into central and east-central Wisconsin after around 3 am
associated with a shortwave out of the central plains and
augmented by a modest 25 kt low level jet. While there is up to
1000 j/kg of elevated instability, severe thunderstorms are not
expected as effective shears are only around 20 kts. Probabilities
remain low (10-30%) for rainfall amounts of 1/2" or greater, but
slow storm motion around 10 kts and precipitable water values
around 1.6 inches indicate some potential for heavy rainfall if
convection is more widespread/potent than what it indicated in
models.
Shortwave troughing will be overhead for the rest of Monday. While
precip early in the day will likely exit in the morning,
instability of 1000-2000 j/kg will lead to redevelopment of
showers and storms in the afternoon. Higher chances appear
northwest of the Fox Valley where the heating curve will be less
impacted by morning precip.
Fog potential: Besides precipitation, guidance is also showing
potential for dense fog over north-central Wisconsin late tonight.
This makes sense with the precip that has occurred today. Will add
to the HWO.
Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday
Moisture, instability, and a weak shortwave will keep the chance
for pulse showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
Tuesday. The lack of better dynamics and lift should keep coverage
fairly low across the region during this period, with the best
chances during the afternoon with peak heating.
The next feature of interest is where Beryl ends up during the
middle part of the week. NWP models seem to agree that our area
will largely miss out on this feature; however, the region will
still see rain as a mid level shortwave and associated positively
tilted trough dive southeast from Canada through the western Great
Lakes region.
Instability showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
afternoon; however, with a lack of any significant dynamics or
forcing coverage is expected to be isolated at best. Some weak
ridging is expected to keep Friday dry, with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible next weekend as some shortwave
ridge riders track through the western Great Lakes on the
periphery of a larger scale ridge in place across the central
CONUS.
Temperatures during the week will be right around normal through
Thursday. Temperatures will then warm to a few degrees normal on
Friday and several degrees above normal by next weekend as the
upper level ridge builds in across the central CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024
An upper level trough will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
as it moves slowly across Wisconsin tonight and Monday. The activity
will be most abundant during the daytime and evening hours and decrease
overnight. There may also be some patchy ground fog late tonight where
significant rain falls.
Outside of any convective activity and ground fog, VFR conditions
are expected.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/Kurimski
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
737 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Scattered showers and thunderstorms over mainly the west half
of Upper MI this afternoon/early evening.
-Through at least Tuesday, daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms, highest chances in the afternoons.
-Drier weather expected for the last half of this week, though
~10% chance Beryl`s remnants complicate the forecast.
-Hot weather possible into the weekend, with ~25% chance of
isolated high temperatures in the 90s over the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
As of 730 pm EDT, cluster of showers and thunderstorms straddles the
WI/MI border in eastern Gogebic County associated with a broad lower-
level confluence zone. One storm briefly perked up SW of Marenisco
earlier in an environment of 30 kt deep layer shear and 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, showing a broad mesocyclone and likely producing around 0.5"
hail, but otherwise, activity has been fairly shallow. Still not out
of the question for a stronger core to develop and result in small
hail and gusty winds to the east and northeast of current activity
through Baraga/Iron Counties given the aforementioned
thermodynamic/kinematic environment, especially where storm mergers
occur with some downstream showers moving more northerly. Storms are
rather slow moving so locally heavy rainfall can be expected as
well. HRRR suggests this activity may persist through around 03Z as
it moves E/NE before weakening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Water vapor imagery showing upper low over northern MN with several
weak shortwaves rotating around it over WI and western Lake
Superior. Given proximity to the U.P. combined with diurnal heating
have already seen scattered shras and tsras develop over the western
third of the U.P. A couple other shras have developed along the
Lake Michigan lake breeze along the Seney stretch. While a brief
stronger storm can`t be ruled out this afternoon given marginal
shear up to 25 knots and CAPE around 1000-1250 J/kg, expect storms
to lack organization. Most activity will diminish this evening with
sunset but as weak shortwave migrates eastward will maintain
slight/low chance pops over the eastern U.P. through the night.
Areas that do see some rain over the west, especially near evening
time may then see some patchy fog develop overnight tonight. Lows
tonight will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
By Monday morning, cutoff 500mb high will be over the SW CONUS with
a ridge axis extending NNW along the Pacific coast of North America,
leading to 500mb height anomalies of up to +18 over the Vancouver
area per the 12Z GEFS. The high will remain largely stationary
throughout the week, but the ridge axis to the north will rotate
through the early portions of the week as a Gulf of Alaska trough
will kick the ridge axis to the east. For the early portions of the
week, the weak shortwaves spilling down from the peak of the ridge
and with some help from diurnal heating, will allow for daily
thundershower chances until the ridge axis progresses far enough
east for a surface high pressure to dampen precipitation chances.
The remnants of Beryl may throw a wrench in the forecast as it
passes south of the UP in the back half of the week, but regardless,
some hotter weather will return to the UP for the weekend with 90s
not out of the question (10-25%) for typical hot spots.
To begin the week, one of the aforementioned 500mb shortwave troughs
will sweep over the UP on Monday, supporting surface troughing of
around 1010mb. This will certainly help force some showers and
thunderstorms and 12Z HREF mean SBCAPE does climb to over 1000 J/kg
over the interior west and central UP. However, with only around
20kt of bulk shear, storms will likely be disorganized, so only
garden variety pulse thunderstorms are expected. This is shown in
the very scattered pattern shown in the HREF reflectivity plots.
Timing-wise, most of the HREF members show initiation around 18Z
Monday with a pretty sharp dropoff in shower coverage and intensity
after sunset.
Tuesday looks to be yet another day with a shortwave passing over
the UP with diurnal thundershowers expected, but PoPs are lower than
the previous day (20-50% instead of 40-80%) thanks to a weaker
shortwave providing less PVA and overall height rises occurring
coincident with tropa. With the 00Z LREF still showing mean CAPE
values around 500 J/kg, there are chances (~30%) of thunder, but
should be well sub-severe.
The complications come Wednesday through the end of the week as the
ridge axis moves over the Canadian Prairie and forces a 1015-1020mb
high pressure that approaches the Upper Great Lakes through the day
Wednesday. However, the remnants of Beryl will swing northeast after
making landfall in TX, with the majority of deterministic and
ensemble guidance bringing the remnants through the Lower Peninsula
of Michigan. The strength and path of both Beryl and the ridge will
have implications on the forecast through the end of the week. For
now, the current forecast reflects the solution that the high
pressure prevails over at least Lake Superior into the weekend,
though the 12Z GEFS still shows a 10-20% chance of the remnants of
Beryl passing within 200 km of the eastern UP, so the forecast is
definitely not set in stone at this point. However, confidence is
increasing that after Beryl`s remnant low passes through the Great
Lakes and flow aloft shifts from northwesterly to be more westerly,
hot temperatures could return to the UP, with the NBM showing about
a 25% chance of isolated 90 degree highs and 5-10% chance of more
widespread 90s highs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
VFR prevails at all TAF sites through this period. TSRA is ongoing
to the east, south, and west of IWD this afternoon with about a 1-in-
3 chance of thunder reaching the vicinity of CMX. Overnight, VFR is
most likely at all sites following the end of showers, though each
site has around a 20% chance of fog, which if fog forms, could drop
visibility/ceilings to IFR or lower. VFR then will continue through
the morning until pop-up TSRA is expected in the afternoon, with the
highest chances of SHRA (~70%) and TSRA (~40%) at SAW with lower
probs at CMX and IWD.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue through this week
as high pressure ridging over the western US slowly drifts eastwards
throughout the forecast period. That being said, some thunderstorms
are possible across the lake this afternoon through tonight, and
then along the nearshores Monday and Tuesday. Wave heights will
remain below 2 feet through the duration of the forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Thompson
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...GS/TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
928 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal zone extending from the Chesapeake Bay into the
Piedmont of the Carolinas will linger and weaken before dissipating
by Tuesday. Mid and upper level high pressure will then build across
the area before another cold front approaches late in the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 928 PM Sunday...
The convection has mostly ended across central NC with some
lingering rain patches attm, as the sfc front has slipped south and
now extends from approx the CLT region ENE to KGSB and then north to
the ORF area. Cooler sfc air behind the front is evident in latest
sfc obs with readings in the lower 70s and even some upper 60s temps
currently across our northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain
zones, with mid-upr 70s across much of the rest of central NC except
some lingering 80s readings near the SC border. Will make a few
tweaks to forecast temps overnight to account for current trends.
Otherwise, the rain should gradually taper off after 06Z tonight as
both instability and larger-scale forcing wanes. Until then, in
additions to some lingering patchy rain, we can`t completely rule
out a few widely sct tstms across our southern-most zones where the
front hasn`t yet cleared the area. And it`s also worth noting that
several MCVs across the Carolinas and Southeast states...as noted in
current water vapor imagery, including one notably just west of the
CLT area, appear to be drifting slowly to the southeast...and thus
should have limited impact on our weather overnight as they should
stay south of our area. Finally, the latest HRRR suggests some
stratus will continue to develop and expand overnight across much of
the Piedmont region, perhaps extending all the way toward I-95...
this stratus formation occurring over areas that received the
heavier rain earlier today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...
* Continued shower/thunderstorm chances, albeit it with lower areal
coverage
* Brief periods of heavy rain likely the primary threat with any
storms that develop
We should have a very similar synoptic setup across the area
tomorrow with PW`s still running around 2 to 2.2". The presence of a
stalled surface boundary may be lacking though and with only a lee
trough and sea breeze to contend with, the overall triggering
mechanisms for convection may ultimately be the limiting factor.
Storms are once again favored across the western Piedmont along with
the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain, with lesser chances elsewhere.
Storms are likely to be outflow dominant and pulse-type in nature
given very weak steering flow around 15kts or less. While wet
microbursts would be a possibility with any storms that approach
severe limits, locally heavy rainfall from slow moving/training
storms would likely be the primary threat tomorrow. However given
relatively limited areal coverage, we shouldn`t need any flood
watches. PoPs in the 20-40 percent range area-wide are the general
consensus from the NBM, HREF, and other global models and this seems
reasonable at this point.
Temps will be on par with today`s values with highs in the upper
80s/lower 90s with lows falling into the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...
* Typical summer pattern through the weekend
* Some storms possible Tuesday/Wednesday, becoming more numerous
late in the week
Precip chances look to decrease on Tuesday as an offshore upper low
off the NC coast dives southwestward toward Florida. In its wake,
mid level heights appear to increase by a few meters and this may be
enough to further inhibit storm development across the area. While
similar PW`s will be in place area-wide, very limited forcing and
instability outside of an area near a lee trough across the western
Piedmont should keep storms isolated/widely scattered in nature.
Meanwhile, the remnant circulation and moisture associated with T.C.
Beryl will be drawn inland and absorbed into a longwave trough
approaching the western Great Lakes later this week. This will spawn
a relatively deep surface cyclone that will track northward across
the Great Lakes into southern Ontario. An attendant surface boundary
will make an eastward run at the mountains, but likely stall/wash
out before it makes it across. However the remnant boundary and/or
lee troughing will likely result in an area of enhanced surface
convergence which will be stall out and be slow to exit the area.
Nearly all global models suggest a plume of increased PW`s will be
drawn inland from off the SE coast on Wednesday, interacting with
and serving as a necessary ingredient for increased shower and
thunderstorm coverage to close out the week. There is a general
consensus among the ensembles that Thursday and Friday could be
particularly active as a weak surface low develops along the stalled
surface boundary to our south and tracks through central NC. Looking
at the 100 member grand ensemble of the Canadian, GFS, and EC
ensemble forecast systems, nearly 80 percent suggest precip across
the area on Thursday and nearly 90 percent on Friday, which is an
unusually high amount of agreement for this time of year at this
lead time. Of course exactly how much rain will fall, and exactly
where the surface boundary and low track set up, is still TBD but
the trend of increasing late-week PoPs will continue. Precip chances
should remain elevated (although slightly lower as compared to
Thursday/Friday), as we get into the weekend.
Temperatures this week should be within a few degrees of normal.
Through mid week with mid level ridging sneaking in from the east,
temps should make a solid run into the mid 90s area-wide and it is
on these days (Tuesday and Wednesday) where heat indices could make
a return to dangerously high values. However increased cloud cover
and precip chances will knock readings back into the mid/upper 80s
Thursday, especially Friday, and possibly into Saturday as well
before returning to normal by Sunday. Lows throughout the period
generally upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 740 PM Sunday...
Through 00Z Tuesday: Convection is slowly diminishing in coverage
this evening; however we are seeing a variety of flt conditions
across central NC attm depending on where the rain is falling. As
the evening progresses into the overnight hours, the rain should
mostly end, however across much of the Piedmont we expect a shield
of stratus to form, which will lower flt conditions aob IFR after
05Z across much of the Piedmont, including KINT, KGSO, and KRDU, and
possibly extending as far east as KRWI and KFAY. This stratus will
linger through about 14Z before cigs slowly lift back to VFR by 17
or 18Z Monday. Winds will generally be aob 10kt, but direction will
be highly variable based on outflow boundaries, and the locations of
the synoptic front which currently extends from KAFP to KPOB to
KGSB.
After 00Z Tuesday: A rather typical summer pattern of scattered
afternoon and evening showers and storms along with some late night
and early morning stratus and fog is expected through the period
with the coverage of storms and restrictions expected to uptick on
Wednesday and increase for Thursday and especially Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 7:
KGSO: 73/2019
KRDU: 77/1900
KFAY: 78/2017
July 8:
KGSO: 76/2010
KRDU: 78/1986
KFAY: 79/2012
July 9:
KGSO: 76/1987
KRDU: 74/2014
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...RAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
147 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
* Prolonged heatwave continues through Thursday. Gradual cooling
trend late week into the next weekend.
* Potential increase in breezes and thunderstorm chances starting
Thursday into next weekend, yielding fire weather concerns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* The heatwave continues with moderate to major HeatRisk forecast
for many lower elevation areas through Thursday. One trend
we`ve seen is with very dry air persisting, overnight lows will
have a tendency to be below NBM guidance. Fairly pronounced in
mountain communities, which can mitigate the impacts of daytime
heat and yield minor-moderate HeatRisk levels. Given this, we
are going to end the Heat Advisories for Tahoe and most of the
Eastern Sierra zone past today. Heat Warnings will continue for
W Nevada along with Advisories for NE California and Mono below
6000` with plenty of record highs and warm lows to fall the next
few days.
* Wildfires to our immediate west in the Sierra are not showing a
lot of activity again today. The 12z HRRR Smoke is probably
overdone. So barring a significant uptick in fire activity,
we`re not anticipating appreciable haze/smoke impacts on our
side of the mountains. The Shelly Fire west of Mt Shasta has
produced some high altitude smoke that is passing overhead
today, and could again tomorrow.
* Confidence is increasing in the afternoon/evening winds bumping
up into potential critical fire weather category starting
Thursday as the upper ridge slides to the east. Gusts on the
order of 30-40 MPH possible each day in the typical areas from
Susanville-Reno- Mammoth. NBM has 40-50% chances of gusts 35+
MPH each day Thursday into the next weekend, which this far out
is a decent signal.
* Of lower confidence but still worth tracking is a potential
moisture resurgence northward into our area as that ridge moves
eastward. NBM t-storm POPs rise into the 10-25% range starting
Friday in both mountains and valleys. With our ongoing heatwave
further drying vegetation, any lightning could result in new
fire starts.
-Chris
&&
.AVIATION...
Typical afternoon W/NW breezes with VFR conditions expected
through Tuesday. Hot temperatures could result in density altitude
concerns for some aircraft each afternoon into next week.
-Chris
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High and Warm Low Temperatures for July 7th-13th at Reno-
Tahoe International Airport (KRNO)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Date Forecast(High/Low) Record High(Year) Record Warm Low(Year)
------ ----------------- ---------------- --------------------
July 7 106/69 102F (2014) 68F (2001,2004)
July 8 105/70 104F (2017) 71F (2014)
July 9 105/69 104F (2021) 69F (2021)
July 10 104/68 108F (2002) 72F (2021)
July 11 104/68 108F (2002) 74F (2014)
July 12 103/69 104F (2005,2021) 74F (2002)
July 13 100/69 103F (2014) 70F (2014,2018)
Current record for consecutive days of 100F or greater at KRNO is 10
days, set in July 2021 and July 2005. With 3 days of 100+ so far in this
streak, there is a good chance of tying this record but whether or not
we break it is less certain. The record for consecutive days of 105 or
greater is only 2 days, which has occurred 6 times in climate history,
most recently July 2023. Today will tie that record.
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.
Excessive Heat Warning until 10 AM PDT Friday NVZ001-003>005.
CA...Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Friday CAZ070-071-073.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.
&&
$$