Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/07/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1004 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Intermittent showers/storms are possible through the middle of the
coming week, although most hours will be dry. Overall, the
risk for organized heavy rain/severe weather is low.
- Temperatures likely will remain near to below average through
much of the coming week, possibly warming back above average
towards next weekend.
- The Mississippi River is near crest south of La Crosse to
Guttenberg, IA, and is slowly falling to the north. By early
next week, falling river levels are expected along the Upper
Mississippi River from southwest WI/northeast IA northward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
This Evening - Sunday:
Broad mid-level troughing persists from the northern Plains through
the Great Lakes this afternoon. GOES water vapor imagery showed an
embedded shortwave across the northern plains, which will slowly
progress into Minnesota over the coming day. Regional radar mosaics
showed areas of showers/storms in association with this wave across
the Dakotas into Minnesota as of early afternoon.
Late this afternoon, lift is quite nebulous, but as inhibition is
eroded, a small (10%) chance for a shower/storm exists, with the RAP
indicating 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from southeast MN into north-
central WI. Heading into tonight and Sunday, modest moisture
transport/warm advection ahead of the trough will spread across the
area, with an attendant increased chance for showers/storms. With
instability waning as rain approaches later this evening/tonight,
expect showers and subsevere storms. Additional scattered
storms are possible later Sunday/Sunday evening ahead of a weak
boundary approaching from the northwest as weak inhibition is
eroded by daytime heating. Although flow fields will increase
relative to today, overall, modest instability (SBCAPE 1000-1500
J/kg) should be a mitigating factor for stronger storms, but
gusty winds/small hail could not be ruled out with a few storms.
Given the lack of deeper moisture and instability, the
potential for heavy rains is limited, but any slower moving
storms could produce localized amounts of 1 inch or more.
Monday - Saturday:
Weak mid-level troughing will persist through the first half of the
work week across the Upper Mississippi Valley, keeping the region in
a seasonably cool temperature regime. Additional showers/storms will
remain possible (30-50%) on Monday, highest chances across
Wisconsin near and ahead of the weak boundary. Additional
showers/storms, primarily diurnal in nature, will be possible
(20-50%) through mid- week given the weakly cyclonic mid/upper
flow atop seasonable boundary layer moisture. With weak flow
aloft, the risk for severe storms in this pattern looks quite
low. Also, similar to this weekend, organized heavy rainfall
potential is also low, but localized heavier rain amounts cannot
be ruled out in slow-moving storms.
Gradually building mid-level heights are forecast later in the week.
As this occurs, temps should trend upward late in the week into
next weekend, while rain chances trend downward (10-30%).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Probability for showers and perhaps a bit of thunder continues
to trend lower at RSE/LSE overnight. Have therefore removed the
SHRA mention at LSE and continued to refrain from thunder
mentions. Moving ahead to Sunday afternoon, continue to see a
good signal in guidance for MVFR cumulus development and have
therefore placed this into the TAFs for a few hours at each
site. A shower or thunderstorm may develop out of this cumulus,
but probability remains too low for a mention with this update.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
The Mississippi River is near crest south of La Crosse and has
been falling from near La Crosse and points north. By early
next week, Mississippi River stages will begin falling across
northeast Iowa/southwest Wisconsin.
Off and on shower/storm chances are expected tonight and Sunday
which could yield additional rainfall amounts of 0.1" to 0.25"
with localized higher amounts. An unsettled pattern is expected
to persist through the first half of next week, but rain amounts
are generally expected to remain light. That said any thunderstorms
could produce localized higher amounts over 1".
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Ferguson
HYDROLOGY...Naylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
922 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and still somewhat humid this evening, with some scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly in Central NY. Mostly clear and
seasonably mild overnight with valley fog as a surface high pressure
system moves overhead. Dry, warm and sunny weather prevails on
Sunday with slightly lower humidity levels. Monday looks to be the
hottest day of the week before it turns more unsettled with
shower and thunderstorm chances each day for mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
Isolated showers over Tompkins and Cortland counties and are
expected do dissipate within the hour. Cut back on pops for the
rest of the region with drier air moving in . Adjusted
temperatures and dewpoints again using latest observations.
630 PM Update...
A few weak pop up showers developed over the western portion of
our region and over the Western Catskills. Updated pops using a
blend of NAM Nest, HRRR and the official forecast. Otherwise an
outflow boundary is making its way over the middle of our CWA,
not in concurrence with any showers, and possibly a lake breeze
feature. Slightly adjusted temperatures and dew points to blend
in current observations. Remaining forecast is on track at this
time.
245 PM Update...
GOES East visible satellite loop shows scattered to broken (30-60%)
cumulus cloud cover out there this afternoon. There is a lake breeze
convergence boundary moving into north-central NY which looks to
propagate east into this evening, acting as a catalyst for isolated
to sct`d showers/t`storms over portions of Central NY. Temperatures
are in the mid to upper 80s currently, with sfc dew points
dropping back a touch, now between 64-70F, which is up to 7
degrees lower than 24 hours ago (based on 230 PM NY mesonet).
MLCAPE is 400-800 J/Kg currently with LIs between -1 and -4 on the
SPC mesoanalysis. Effective layer shear is impressive at 40-55 kts
currently, but areal average soundings from the 17z HRRR are showing
dry air in the 750-550mb layer which is inhibiting any showers that
reach this level so far. The HRRR keeps this dry layer, and a weak
thermal cap around 575mb in place into the late afternoon
hours...and yet it does allow for a few thunderstorms to develop,
mainly along the remnant lake air mass boundary, which is
progressing east across our western/central CWA at this time.
Overall, sounding data shows most parameters unfavorable for severe
storms this afternoon...again owing to just too much dry air, and
weak mid/upper level lapse rates. Equilibrium levels are low,
especially for the mixed layer parcels, only reaching 20k ft
agl...and 25k ft agl for surface based parcels. Will continue to
monitor, but for now left mainly slight chance to low end chance
PoPs in the forecast across Central NY for the late afternoon &
early evening. Did include a small area of higher PoPs where the
storms are likely to roll through between now and 6 PM, along and
north of I-90 from near Syracuse to Rome.
Any lingering showers and storms should dissipate around or shortly
after sunset with skies becoming mostly clear overnight. Cross over
temperatures for valley fog formation are lower, in the low to mid-
60s over the region...but overnight lows will drip down into the
upper 50s to mid-60s. Therefore, with light winds and high pressure
in place did include patchy/areas of fog for the favored river
valley locations into early Sunday morning.
Quiet and warm weather on Sunday under high pressure. Valley fog
burns off and dissipates by 9 AM. Dew points will be lower between
60-65 in the afternoon, so it will not feel as humid out there.
Highs reach into the 80s areawide under mostly sunny skies. Much of
the same for Sunday night, with high pressure remaining overhead.
Clear skies, light winds and seasonable overnight lows in the 60s
will set the stage for more valley fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...
High pressure overhead will promote dry conditions Monday and a
good deal of sunshine, but it will be a hot, humid day.
Dewpoints Monday will be anywhere from the mid 60s to around 70
degrees. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s
to the low 90s, and heat index values can peak in the mid and
upper 90s in some valley locations. This day will be monitored
for potential heat advisories.
Clouds will start to increase Monday night as a cold front
begins to slowly approach from the west and it will be warm and
muggy. There could be enough moisture in place for a stray
shower later at night. Lows will range from the mid 60s to near
70 degrees.
The cold front is expected to continue to push east gradually
Tuesday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms,
especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Tuesday looks
to remain very warm and humid ahead of the front with highs from
the mid 80s to near 90 degrees, but this will also depend on
how quickly convection gets going this day and cloud cover.
There is the potential for heat index values this day to be in
the low to mid 90s, while the Wyoming Valley may see values
nearing 100 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
255 PM Update...
Mid to late week is where uncertainty in the forecast
increases. A strong Bermuda high is expected to slow down the
eastward progress of the cold front and perhaps even stall it
out all together not too far away from the CWA Wednesday into
Thursday if the high can shift far enough westward like the 12Z
GFS depicts and most of the ensembles. This would be the
catalyst for additional showers and thunderstorms, but the wild
card is if what remains of Beryl could make it into the region.
This possible enhancement of tropical moisture can lead to the
potential of heavy rainfall and localized flooding come
Thursday, especially in urban areas and small creeks/streams.
Current guidance has Beryl moving into the southern Plains/lower
Mississippi River Valley Tuesday-Tuesday night and meeting up
with the tail end of the cold front which would help draw it
northeastward, but the question becomes where is the front and
does the tropical moisture move into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes or farther east toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Unsettled conditions look to persist into Friday and Saturday
with additional shower and thunderstorm chances. High
temperatures mid to late week look to generally be from the
upper 70s to the mid 80s, but convection and the potential for
heavy rainfall will make temperatures tricky. Lows are expected
to be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet weather with VFR conditions, outside of valley fog, will
prevail through the period as high pressure builds into the
area.
Fog is likely in the valleys of the Susquehanna basin by the
predawn hours, as minimum temperatures look to fall below the
crossover temp at ELM. Continued to carry 1/2SM in fog for the
08-11Z period, and visibility may drop to 1/4SM at times.
After the fog lifts and clears, VFR and light winds will
prevail for the remainder of Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday Through Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms possible,
with associated restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MJM/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1047 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some rivers, creeks and streams across east-central Wisconsin
will continue to run above bankfull due to recent rainfall.
- A few thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon/evening could be strong
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain. At this time,
severe weather is not expected. On and off chances for showers
and thunderstorms will continue Monday through Wednesday.
Although the severe weather threat remains low, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible.
- A warmer/drier summer pattern may be in store toward the end of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Sunday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show several
shortwave impulses moving east across the northern Plains and
northern Mississippi Valley. Further east, conditions are more
stable thanks to shortwave ridging aloft. Surface instability is
estimated at around 600-900 j/kg over north-central WI and
eastern WI. This instability has led to a cu field across much of
the region, which has been the most agitated over north-central
Wisconsin. No showers have been observed so far, but it`s still
possible that a few showers could pop by late this afternoon.
Forecast concerns revolve around precip timing as the shortwave
energy upstream approach northeast Wisconsin on Sunday.
Precip chances: The chance of isolated showers and storms will
likely continue into the evening hours as both the RAP and HRRR
indicate instability will be slow to dissipate. After a lull in
the precipitation late this evening and overnight, shortwave
energy from the northern Plains will be approaching northern
Wisconsin by 7 am Sunday. Modest moisture advection and little in
the way of instability will lead to a swath of showers lifting
northeast across the area during the morning hours. These showers
look to be light and scattered in nature.
Redevelopment of showers and storms is relatively uncertain in the
afternoon. In general, models depict a favorable thermodynamical
profile for thunderstorm development with 1000-2000 j/kg of
surface based instability if showers and cloud cover do not impact
the heating curve sufficiently. These factors look to have a
greater impact over north-central WI than over the Fox Valley
where showers are expected to be more widespread in the morning.
But in general, the convective allowing models are unenthusiastic
about precip chances in the afternoon, probably due to a lack of
focused ascent. Have therefore lowered precip chances in the
afternoon. If details change and trends support a greater
potential for thunderstorm development, increasing wind fields
aloft (deep layer shear 25-30 kts) could support a strong to low
end severe thunderstorm.
Temperatures will be near normal tonight and Sunday.
Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Heat ridge will remain parked across the southwest CONUS, slowly
expanding eastward next week. Broad area of troughing will
prevail across the Great Lakes, with multiple embedded shortwaves,
keeping an unsettled pattern in place through at least
Tuesday/Wednesday. Chances for drier weather arrives at the end
of the week, but monitoring how strong and how far east the ridge
will get, along with the track of Beryl. Temperatures look to be
near or slightly above normal.
Sunday evening/night...chances for storms will continue as the
upper trough slowly works toward the region and a shortwave/jet
cross the state. Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered. The
better instability wanes by midnight, so chances for a few strong
storms look to be confined to the evening hours. Gusty winds and
hail would be the greatest threats. Will need to monitor for a
heavy rain threat as well, with PWATs climbing to around
1.25-1.75", possibly near 2.0" in east central WI and tall/skinny
CAPE profiles. If a scenario like the HRRR pans out, would have
some training storms which could drop some heavy rain totals over
an inch or two pretty easily which could create some hydro issues,
especially in central and east central WI. Recent rain could lead
to some fog development. It looks to be a fairly warm and muggy
night in the Fox Valley with lows in the upper 60s and dewpoints
in the mid 60s. Slightly cooler and less humid conditions are
expected further north.
Monday into Tuesday...upper trough slowly treks across the Great
Lakes, along with an upper jet and a couple embedded shortwaves.
This will keep showers and storms in the forecast, especially in
the late morning and afternoon/evening hours during peak heating.
Some pulse-like strong storm will be possible, but locally heavy
rain appears to be the biggest threat.
Rest of the period...chances for drier and warmer weather arrives
in the mid to late week timeframe, but trends with the remnants
of Beryl will need to be monitored as any westward shift could
bring some more rain/clouds into the area. Also a little worried
we will get at least clipped by some of the ridge riders next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Clear skies will give way to increasing middle clouds late tonight.
Some ground fog could form late tonight near Lake Michigan and
the area just west of the bay. If it does form, it should dissipate
by 13z Sunday.
A warm front will move across the region Sunday and could produce
some scattered showers or thunderstorms across central and north
central Wisconsin. A frontal system will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area Sunday night and early Monday as it
moves slowly across the area.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/Bersch
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible west of the Illinois River
on Sunday (20-30% chance). Severe weather is not expected.
- Precip chances persist across much of the area Monday-Tuesday
(20-50% chance), then shift to southeastern Illinois on
Wednesday as the remnants of TS Beryl approach the Ohio Valley.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
00z surface map indicated broad high pressure stretched from the
mid Mississippi Valley northeast into the eastern Great Lakes.
This will provide light winds and mostly clear skies overnight. A
convective complex over the eastern Plains will spread some high
clouds in from the northwest after midnight. Some decaying showers
associated with the shortwave could reach our far northwest
counties after daybreak, and will keep slight chance (20%) PoPs
after 12z. Low temperatures to be seasonable, primarily in the mid
60s.
25
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Weak, broad sfc high pressure, with MSLP values around
1016-1018mb, continues to slowly shift east across the mid-
Mississippi Valley, and should shift east of Illinois tonight.
Diurnal Cu will fade this evening, resulting in mostly clear skies
through the evening. A shortwave over the northern Plains has led
to storms forming across the Plains, and these are expected to
track towards the Upper Midwest. CAMs depict most, if not all, of
this activity staying north/west of the ILX CWA as it passes by
during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday, but the far northwest
portions of the CWA could be clipped by this precip activity. This
disturbance will also result in mid/high cloud cover increasing
west of I-55 after midnight.
A trough over the central Plains will gradually shift east through
early next week, resulting in occasional scattered precip chances
through Wed. The most favored area for precip will shift east each
day, beginning with areas west of the IL River on Sunday, peaking
area-wide on Monday (30-50%), shifting east on Tues (20-40% east
of I-55), and lingering but diminishing on Wed (20% chance
near/east of I-57). While it`s difficult to completely rule out an
isolated strong storm or locally heavy rainfall this time of
year, overall the probability of such hazards is quite low. That`s
in large part due to tropical system Beryl, which will prevent
gulf moisture from advecting into the Midwest, as well as prevent
EML advection out of the SW US. Ensemble mean PWAT values across
central IL with this wave are in the 1.50-1.75" range, which is
above normal but not excessive, with such values being below the
90th percentile of the ILX sounding climatology. The lack of an
EML really limits the instability values, with MUCAPE values
generally below 1000 J/kg each day Mon-Wed. Additionally, upper
level heights gradually start to rise on Tues-Wed as the main
upper trough starts to lift northeast.
The one exception is Sunday, with modest instability (around 1500
J/kg) developing west of the IL River, although shear values are
marginal (less than 30 knots). Most CAMs do show some storm
development across west-central IL, aided either by previous
t-storm outflows or an MCV lifting out of MO. Unfortunately
pinpointing the specific placement of either of these mesoscale
features is a low confidence venture. The 06.12z run of the HRRR
indicates some spotty higher wind gusts out of the Sun PM storms,
however it`s forecast soundings appear significantly overmixed,
and thus have disregarded this signal for now. Perhaps the
presence of an MCV can locally enhance shear values across west-
central IL tomorrow afternoon and allow for better storm
organization, but otherwise the prospects of severe weather are
looking quite slim.
Late Wed into Thurs, the remnants of Beryl are progged to curve
northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. Most guidance still keeps
the system and the bulk of its associated rainfall south of the
ILX CWA. The "cone of uncertainty" does extend as far north as the
I-72 corridor, illustrating the typical track error of such
systems at this range. Adding to the difficulty is the fact that
there could be a tight northern gradient to the precip with this
system. The NBM PoPs did seem too low compared to other ensemble
guidance, so in coordination with neighboring offices to the
south/east, PoPs were raised. Significant temperature swings are
not expected over the next week, with highs generally in the
mid/upper 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Erwin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
VFR conditions through much of the forecast with scattered
diurnal cu redeveloping Sunday morning. High pressure will shift
over the area tonight, resulting in light to calm winds. After
the high pushes off to our east Sunday morning, winds will set up
from the south/southwest around 10 kt. A slow moving front will
bring scattered showers and a few storms to northwest IL late
tonight and Sunday morning, with a low chance of storms reaching
KPIA by late afternoon to evening where a PROB30 group will be
added.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
816 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance (25-45 percent) of showers and thunderstorms Sunday,
mainly northwest of a La Salle to Lake County line. Slight
chance (15-25 percent) southeast of that line.
- Continued periods of unsettled weather Sunday night-Tuesday
afternoon with periodic showers and thunderstorms, highest
chance/coverage on Monday.
- Seasonable temperatures will continue for the coming week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Evening water vapor imagery shows a minor-amplitude mid-level
short wave trough tracking east-northeast in the vicinity of
southern Lake Michigan. While a few isolated showers developed
with peak afternoon heating across parts of northern IL,
thankfully coverage and intensity remained minimal due to weak
lower and mid-level winds (and resulting lack of deep-layer
shear) and unfavorable mid-level lapse rates. Weak
subsidence/mid-level height rises in the wake of this feature
and loss of diurnal low-level instability will therefore result
in dry and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions for the
rest of the night.
Farther to the west, an upper trough was evident across the
Northern Plains, with another mid-level short wave propagating
through its southern periphery across NE/KS. Several clusters of
strong/severe thunderstorms were occurring from KS northeast
into NE/IA at this hour. Current RAP forecasts indicate this
activity may convectively enhance the aforementioned short-wave
(potentially with an embedded MCV), which will track northeast
across IA through early Sunday morning, and move into
WI/northwest IL by mid-morning. The main low-level moisture
(mid-60s surface dew points) and associated instability axis
looks to remain mainly across MO/IA into WI during much of the
day, though some elevated moist advection and weak instability
associated with enhanced southwest low level jet flow does look
to provide some showers/thunderstorms into our northwest cwa.
CAMs continue to focus this mainly northwest of about a Mendota-
Highland Park IL line. May then be a lull for our area during
the early afternoon, before forcing increases again later in the
day and evening as the main short wave eventually approaches.
Going forecast captures these trends pretty well, and other
than some previous tweaks to near term elements based on obs
trends, no changes to the forecast appears needed this evening.
Ratzer
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Through Sunday...
Overcast skies have kept most locations in the upper 70s to around
80 early this afternoon, and a lake breeze pushing west through the
metro area has supported some even slightly cooler temperatures.
Sunday, with more sunshine expected, looks to be several degrees
warmer with a bit more humidity as well. The exception would be
toward the Rockford area where shortwave energy exiting the base of
a shallow upper trough would support increased cloudiness and
scattered showers or thunderstorms. It is possible that some of
these showers could also work east toward the Chicago metro during
the afternoon or evening. Elected to maintain just a slight chance
mention in that region for now. However, more favorable mid-level
lapse rates and low level moisture profiles do spread across the
area later in the day as southerly surface winds turn southwesterly
for a while and tap into the better moisture to our west.
Sunday Night through Saturday...
The weakly forced and seasonably mild pattern...at least by July
standards...continues into the early part of the coming week. On
Monday a frontal zone to our west makes very slow progress toward
our area but increases the overall low level moisture convergence.
Lapse rates don`t look overly impressive but should be enough to
support scattered thunderstorms, especially by the afternoon. The
lack of strong forcing along with generally unidirectional SW wind
profiles would not appear to pose a severe threat, but the
possibility of flooding may need to be monitored if storms manage to
track repeatedly across the same area. As with Sunday, the greatest
concern would be for the northwest half of the forecast area.
The weak front...maybe more of a surface trough...moves through the
area Tuesday. Surface winds turn west then northwest but copious
low level moisture remains in place, which in conjunction with the
upper trough trailing the front will support ongoing chances (25-45
percent) of thunderstorms into Tuesday evening.
Wednesday presently looks quieter with subtle height rises aloft in
the wake of the passing trough, but Thursday into next weekend are
more of a question. The path of Beryl remnants may play some part
in how the rest of the week evolves. Models suggest the low center
passes to our south, which could provide the primary focus for
convection late in the week. A different track might allow more
of the moisture to work farther north. For now will maintain
slight chance mentions of precip, with highs very gradually
warming toward the upper 80s.
Lenning
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024
There are no major aviation weather concerns through the 00Z TAF
period.
While they still have some subsiding to do, SE winds around 5 kt or
less can be expected during the bulk of this evening and into
tonight. Winds may go light and variable at times overnight, but
direction should be predominantly SSE. Wind direction during the day
on Sunday is somewhat uncertain, although SW looks like a safe bet
at least into the afternoon across Chicagoland. RFD is a bit more
uncertain and while SW appears favored, there is noteworthy support
for predominantly E or SE during the day. Wind speed during the day
should remain primarily under 10 kt with gusts into the teens.
Another lake breeze is progged to move onshore tomorrow but more
uncertainty exists on when it will pass over the Chicago sites and
turn winds easterly. Most model guidance suggests sometime in the
mid-late afternoon.
Additionally, a complex of showers and thunderstorms will impact
northern IL Sunday afternoon and evening. RFD is likely to see
periods of showers during the day. With no apparent timeframe for
more appreciable rain chances, went with a broad brushed VCSH during
the day to cover the scattered coverage and intermittent shower
activity. While most of the activity should remain west of the
Chicago metro, it`s very possible, if not likely, that at least some
rain makes it INVOF the Chicago sites at times during the day. Could
be as early as the early afternoon, but better chances arrive during
the late evening and especially just beyond the current period
overnight Sunday night. Confidence isn`t quite there yet for a
formal mention in the TAF, but look for precip to be included in
future TAF issuances.
Doom
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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