Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/05/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
920 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid conditions last into Friday with continued
risk for more thunderstorms. Saturday is now looking mainly dry,
but still very warm. Sunday and Monday will be dry and mostly
sunny, with continued hot temperatures. A front approaches
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region next Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM Update...
Forecast grids in decent shape with just minor adjustments to
timing of next rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
CAMS guidance in rather poor agreement leading to low confidence
in forecast, but they do show plenty of potential for
showers/t-storms overnight and then again at times on Friday
across both CNY and NEPA. Will attempt some timing for the
overnight, but generally expecting scattered coverage. A few
adjustments were also made to Friday`s forecast which should
feature a lull in any lingering overnight convection before
atmosphere recovers in the afternoon as noted below.
340 PM Update
A weak boundary resides over the Twin Tiers at this time, aiding
in some minor surface convergence. Surface dew points and low
level moisture are higher across NE PA, mainly in the lower
70s...with mid-60s to upper 60s further north across the rest of
Central NY. Therefore, instability is higher over NE PA with
MLCAPE rising between 500-1000 J/Kg currently. Along this
boundary some scattered showers and t`storms have developed;
these are not moving much and should tend to remain in this
general area while drifting southeast into the evening hours. It
will be very warm and humid into the evening hours, with
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80 around sunset.
Difference in the CAMs for late evening and tonight made for a
lower than usual confidence forecast. The HRRR would suggest
much more numerous shower and t`storm activity
overnight...meanwhile the 3km NAM is mainly dry overnight. With
the differences and uncertainty decided to stick with slight
chance PoPs for the overnight period. Will have to monitor
upstream convective activity to see how well it progresses
east-northeast late this evening/overnight.
Friday will be another very warm and humid day, with dew points
pushing into the upper 60s to mid-70s...with the highest surface
moisture across NE PA. High temperatures reach the mid-80s to
around 90...this will produce peak heat indices well into the
90s across our valley locations. It will be very close to heat
advisory criteria in some of the favored urban valley location.,
but confidence wasn`t quite high enough as it will depend on
rain chances/timing and cloud cover.
By afternoon, instability increases between 1000-2000 J/Kg and
deep layer shear increases between 30-40 kts. SPC has the
western half of our forecast area under a Marginal risk for
severe storms, with the main threat being isolated damaging
winds. WPC is also indicating a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall over the entire region, as PWATS remain elevated above
1.6 inches, and warm cloud layer depth is up to 13k ft agl. CAMs
suggest a possible remnant MCS/MCV moving into the area which
will initial more convection...exactly when and where this may
track remains somewhat uncertain though at this time.
A front moves in from the west Friday evening and into the
overnight period. This will bring a period of rain and
thunderstorms to the region once again. Additional locally
heavy rainfall is possible with this convective activity.
Localized rainfall totals of 1-2"+ are possible during this
time. With the cloud, showers and a warm south wind...it will be
very muggy with lows only in the upper 60s to mid-70s out there.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low tracks north of our region on Saturday with a cold
front dragging through NY & PA. Front is expected to move through
early Saturday morning with model guidance hinting at lower precip
chances for most of Saturday. A few isolated showers are still
possible with lingering moisture behind the front. Otherwise
temperatures are expected to be quite warm with southerly flow still
in place. Highs will climb into the low to high 80s by afternoon
with lows gradually falling into the low to mid 60s overnight. High
pressure builds over the midwest expanding into our region on Sunday
resulting in dry conditions. Mostly sunny skies will dominate with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear skies will continue into
the overnight hours with calm winds allowing for a possible
radiational cooling setup. Lows are forecasted to range in the upper
50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure centers over our region Monday with a pleasant start
to the week. Warm and quiet conditions will persist for one more
day, with heat and humidity starting to increase on the backside of
the high. By Tuesday and Wednesday our region rests on the edge of
an upper level ridge with southwest flow and moisture advection.
With heat and humidity in place, passing shortwaves should provide
enough lift to set off showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance
diverges towards the end of the period due to timing
differences. Went with NBM pops showing a chance of showers as
another disturbance moves through the region. Temperatures
during this period are expected to be warm with increasing
humidity as the week progresses. Highs will range in the low to
upper 80s with lows in the 60s at night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is expected for most of this forecast period, especially
across the northern third. Plenty of boundary layer moisture
exists, especially around the terminals that received rainfall
today (KBGM-KAVP). As a result, believe there will be
visibility restrictions at these locations. Persistent high
level clouds through the night along with a weak wave bringing
more scattered showers prevents ideal dense fog formation, so
will generally stick with MVFR mist restrictions during the
late night hours...but IFR or worse is a non-zero chance.
Confidence is just too low at this moment to include.
An initial period of SCT-BKN MVFR ceilings is likely over the
southern half of the forecast area before mixing and lifting to
VFR. Additional showers and t`storms will develop and move
across the forecast area on Friday. Confidence is low on timing
and location.
Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern
with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated
restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...JAB/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1008 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will impact the region into early this evening with
the focus across the interior. A better chance for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be overnight and at times Friday and
Saturday. That being said...dry weather should still dominate..
Sunday though Monday is warm, humid, and dry. A return to more
unsettled weather by Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM Update:
Considerably more humid than prior nights but other than
varying amts of cloud cover, hasn`t been much in the way of
showers after the earlier round exited. There are a cluster of
heavier showers in scattered coverage from parts of eastern NY
westward running along the NY/PA border. Really poor run-to-run
handling in the hourly-updating CAMs as far as shower
depictions go. Meteorologically, forcing for these showers looks
nebulous frankly with weak sfc pressure gradient; but seems to
be being driven by a warm front/theta-e boundary which trails
from a weak low over central OH eastward into northern PA. This
is seen on SPC mesoanlyses. Most models show PWAT axis in the 2
to 2.2 inch range advecting in for the 2nd half of the
overnight. On that basis, it seems reasonable to offer
increasing shower chances (20-40%, up from < 15%) for the
overnight for the southern third - CT, RI, SE MA areas, with
slight chance to dry north of the Mass Pike. Thinking until
midnight-1 AM, much of the area is generally dry, but the risk
increases thereafter from CT initially then spreading ENE into
RI/eastern and southeast MA. Phrased as isolated/scattered
showers for the late-overnight/early Fri AM period.
With south winds easing, very weak low-level flow, and rising
dewpoints, seems like a potential setup for fog/mist in places
late tonight and overnight; challenging to pinpoint specifics
but areas which saw rain today and where winds go light would be
most favored.
405 PM Update...
* A few showers into this evening...focused across the interior
but may briefly impact the Boston to Providence corridor
* Muggy tonight with the main risk for scattered showers & perhaps
an isolated t-storm or two mainly after midnight
Scattered showers have developed across southwest MA and northern CT
as of mid-late afternoon. This in response to shortwave energy
pushing eastward coupled with some marginal instability. We can not
rule out a rumble or two of thunder across the interior into this
evening...but instability and forcing is rather limited. Further
east onto the coastal plain...just a few brief showers are expected
into the evening. This a result of the shortwave energy weakening as
it runs into subtle ridging.
Appears the better risk for some scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two will be after midnight and especially toward
daybreak. This in response to a subtle surface wave that will
interact with very high Pwats on the order of 2-2.25 inches and
several hundred J/KG of MUCape. Therefore...any of the activity will
be capable of producing brief downpours. Because the forcing is
limited but the Pwat plume is very high...the uncertainty revolves
around the areal coverage of the activity and the location of it.
This may need to be more of a nowcast situation...so later shifts
will likely have to adjust the Pops/timing based on radar and
satellite trends.
Moist southerly flow will keep overnight low temps mainly in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s and it will be muggy.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points...
* Very Warm & Humid Friday with highs 85-90 away from south coast
* A few showers/isolated t-storms Fri with brief downpours possible
Friday...
A ridge of high pressure off the coast will result in a very warm
and humid day on Friday. The majority of the day will likely feature
dry weather...but a few showers/isolated t-storms will be possible
at times given the tropical environment in place. We will discuss
that below...but overall expect highs to reach between 85 and 90
Friday away from the south coast/Cape and Islands where highs will
be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Scattered showers and perhaps a few t-storms will probably be
departing the region Fri morning with the subtle shortwave. A few
additional showers/isolated t-storms may popup later Fri morning and
especially during the afternoon given a very high Pwat plume in
place and any diurnal instability. The difficulty is trying to
locate/time this activity given limited forcing in a tropical-like
environment with Pwats of 2-2.25 inches. Models tend to struggle in
these weakly forced environments...but it will not take much for a
few showers/isolated t-storms to develop. Greatest concern would be
during the Fri mid-late afternoon hours into the first part of Fri
evening across the interior MA and CT. This is where surface Capes
may approach 1500 J/KG and CSU machine learning probs along with
HRRR Neural Network/Nadocast indicate some very low severe probs in
our western zones. Again...forcing is limited but given the
environment can not rule out the low risk for an isolated severe t-
storm/localized wet microburst or two. In addition...a very
localized flood threat can not be ruled out either given Pwats 3+
standard deviations above normal. So any t-storm that is able to
develop will be capable of producing torrential rainfall.
Friday night...
Initially will have to watch for a few showers/isolated t-storms
early Friday evening. This activity will probably start to dissipate
though with the loss of diurnal heating coupled with poor mid level
lapse rates. However...we may see scattered showers/isolated t-
storms redevelop overnight given a modest southerly LLJ and very
high Pwats on the order of 2 to 2.5 inches! While much of this time
will feature dry weather...any activity will be capable of producing
brief torrential rainfall given the tropical environment in place.
The very high dewpoints will probably hold overnight low temps in
the upper 60s to the middle 70s...so it will be quite muggy.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* Mid-summer heat and humidity through the period
* Potential for local heavy downpours Saturday and perhaps Wednesday
Latest global ensemble model outputs don`t really show any big
changes from prior forecasts. The large scale weather pattern
indicates a mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will remain
anchored to our east, with the ridge axis from roughly Bermuda north
into the Canadian Maritimes. That puts us on the western periphery
of the ridge, although 500mb heights will remain above normal. That
kind of pattern would keep deep southwest flow across our area,
meaning an extended period of high dewpoint air. It would also be
hard to get any strong upper level dynamics to really impact the
region as any shortwave would be moving into the ridge.
What we will primarily experience as sensible weather for the area
will be the humidity. NBM data looked quite good, so that would
suggest dewpoints will rarely be below 65F through the period.
Saturday and then again Tuesday and Wednesday should be the most
humid of the days, with dewpoints in the 70-75F those days. Luckily
we aren`t looking at extremely high temperatures (mid to upper 80s
those 3 days), so heat index values will "only" be in the lower 90s.
Those most humid days are also when we will have the higher chances
of showers and thunderstorms. Given precipitable water values
expected to be 2-2.25" on Saturday and again mid-week, that sets us
up for the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Ensemble model
probabilities show about a 20-30% chance of seeing 0.5" in a 6 hour
period for Saturday and again Wednesday. Although those values don`t
seem high, they are a respectable signal given the lower resolution
of global models. With Saturday, surface CAPE values should reach
500-900 J/kg especially across western half of SNE so some
convection should develop. Wind fields are not strong and mid level
lapse rates are only 5-5.5C/km so not expecting any severe weather,
but an isolated strong storm is not out of the question. As
mentioned previously, it`s the high PW values that suggest local
heavy downpours as the primary issue.
Looks to be mostly dry Sunday and Monday, so those days will have
the best potential to top out in the 90-92F range in many inland
areas. Though it will be humid, dewpoints will be not be high enough
to result in oppressive conditions. Another surge of higher moisture
comes back in for Tuesday and Wednesday, thus additional showers and
a few storms are expected. Much more uncertain for Thursday, so
stuck with NBM which offers a climatologically normal 30-40% chance
of showers and a few t-storms. However this time of year there are
rarely strong synoptic signals to really latch onto, so sticking
with a "climo" forecast is the best bet.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High Confidence.
Mainly VFR this evening, but pockets of MVFR to even IFR at ORH
are popping up as dewpoints continue to climb this evening.
Expecting more widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings to begin to develop
after midnight as the boundary layer cools and low level
moisture continues to increase. More scattered showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible after midnight.
Any of this activity will be capable of producing brief
downpours. S-SW winds 5-15 knots becoming light tonight.
Friday and Friday night...Moderate Confidence.
MVFR-IFR conditions early Fri morning should improve to MVFR/VFR
levels by mid afternoon. However...do expect MVFR-IFR
conditions to redevelop Fri night with even some localized LIFR
Cigs/Vsbys. A few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm or two
will be possible into mid-morning Fri & some re-development is
possible Fri PM. Any of this activity will be capable of
producing brief downpours. Timing/location of this activity is
quite uncertain...but regardless thinking dry weather dominates
the vast majority of the time. S winds mainly 5-10 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening followed by
moderate confidence thereafter.
VFR with periods of MVFR possible this evening.
Becoming MVFR/IFR later tonight with a low chance for a passing
shower. MVFR/VFR tomorrow with scattered showers or
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening followed by
moderate confidence thereafter.
VFR this evening. Becoming MVFR/IFR later tonight with a low
chance for a passing shower. MVFR/VFR tomorrow with scattered
showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon
Outlook /Saturday through
Tuesday/...
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Sunday through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Friday night...High Confidence.
High pressure east of the waters will generate persistent S-SW
winds of 10 to 15 knots with perhaps some 20+ knot wind gusts at
times. Conditions though should generally remain below small
craft thresholds...but given long southwest fetch we may see
some marginal 5 foot seas develop across our southern outer-
waters Fri night. We may also have to watch for an isolated
t-storm or two...but widespread convection is not expected.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Monday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Nash
NEAR TERM...Frank/Loconto/KP
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto/KP/Nash
MARINE...Frank/Loconto/Nash
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Storm Chances Drastically Decreased For This Evening
- Seasonable Temperatures Through Weekend
- More Precipitation End of Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
H5 trough axis is currently moving across the Central Plains this
afternoon with several vort maxes and perturbations moving ahead of
that into the lower Missouri River Valley. The first thermal
boundary has been nudged southward into Ozarks, mainly forced by the
convection early this morning. As a result of that, a lot of the
instability that was expected to be around was pushed well south of
Interstate 70, and prevented a lot redevelopment through the late
morning hours despite larger scale lift with the passing mid-level
short-waves. Also, the dCVA associated with the troughing over the
Plains and subtle dCVA ahead of it pushed surface pressure falls and
cyclogenesis processes further south for this afternoon. There is
still a trailing cold front, which is more of a dewpoint
discontinuity then a true temperature one at this point, that is
coming in from Kansas. This front had been the focus for
redevelopment this afternoon. However, with the cloud clover
lingering, differential heating was not strong in our forecast area,
and was forced into the Ozarks and portions of the Ohio River
Valley. As of 19z, there were still some cumulus clouds in eastern
Kansas ahead of the cold front but little in the way of any
glaciation or rapid cloud top cooling. The lack of instability and
weaker convergence has been the reason for decreasing precipitation
trends through the afternoon. As of the 16z cycle, the HRRR
completely eliminated most convection, with simulated reflectivity
fields showing a few isolated showers. While there is still a decent
amount of shear along the front and in the presence of the mid-level
vort maxes, the thermodynamics and low-level convergence just is not
there anymore to realize any kind of severe threat. Given that the
cold front is still coming in, will leave some mentionable POPs in
the forecast to cover light shower activity. There may be some
elevated instability that perhaps an isolated thunderstorm could
develop with and produce some lightning, but the probabilities for
even general non-severe thunderstorms have rapidly dwindled in the
past few hours. With that being said, expecting mostly dry
conditions for the rest of your Independence Day evening. Keep in
mind several creeks and streams are still running high, and we may
still have standing water in some low lying areas. For right now,
will keep the Flood Watch out in case any showers do develop along
the front, and will gradually cancel the flood watch as the cold
front moves across the forecast area through the evening. But
overall QPF values look to be less than 0.25 inches at this point.
Overall, winds will be light in variable as the front passes,
eventually becoming more northerly. A weak inversion may setup post-
frontal as a surface anti-cyclone moves into the area, which may
make the air a bit stagnant this evening. Keep this in mind for any
4th of July celebrations.
Closed H5 low drops into Iowa by Friday morning which will maintain
some H5 height falls in our area, but stronger surface anti-cyclone
developing under subsidence in the central Plains slides eastward
underneath that, and largely eliminates most of the forcing keeping
a rather dry forecast for our area on Friday. There is a weak signal
for light QPF in our far north with some moisture wrap around Friday
afternoon, but the bulk of the forcing and better belt of moisture
transport will be in the upper Mississippi River Valley. The
presence of the mid-level low will help keep temperatures bit cooler
and reduce influences from the ridge trying to build over the
Central Plains. Another short-wave trough begins to dig out of the
Rockies late Saturday afternoon, that will provide a brief period of
height rises across our area and may provide better theta-e
advection heading into the late evening hours. The main vort max
associated with this then moves over the forecast by middle of the
day Sunday and will bring rain shower and thunderstorm chances.
Current GEFS and other medium range ensemble suites paint
probabilities above 70 percent across a large portion of the
forecast area for QPF of at least 0.10 inches, and lower end
probabilities between 20 and 30 percent for at least 0.50 inches of
QPF Sunday into Monday. Still some uncertainty with where the better
instability axis sets up for the weekend, with some solutions
placing this over the Central Plains and others closer to the
Mississippi River Valley. Therefore, difficult to comment on severe
convection potential for Sunday and Monday at this time. There may
be some additional thunderstorm chances through the middle of next
week as few more short-wave perturbations moves across the area.
Temperatures generally will be in the upper 80s, with some lower 90s
possible. Amongst NBM members, inner-quartile spread is not overly
large, but you can see some uncertainty that is presented by shower
and thunderstorm through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Some persistent cloud cover remains around all TAF sites, but
should remain VFR and improve throughout the night, with
guidance increasingly favoring no cloud cover. Winds will
generally remain out of the northwest with the passage of a
cold frontal boundary.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ037>040-043>046-053-
054.
KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ057-060-104-105.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...SPG/Pesel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Great conditions are expected for tonight`s firework shows
with clear skies and 10 PM temperatures in the mid 60s to
around 70.
- Below normal July temperatures (Highs 77-85) are expected to
persist into at least early next week before we get closer to
normal temperatures by next Wednesday/Thursday (Highs 86-91).
- The next chance for rain will be Friday night (20%) into
Saturday (50-60%) and Sunday (30-50%). There will be a severe
weather threat primarily on Saturday. Monday and Tuesday
continue to appear dry.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
This Evening...
Unlike last night, all firework shows are in good shape tonight
with dry weather expected across the entire forecast area.
Evening conditions between 9 PM and Midnight will feature clear
skies, light northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, temperatures
falling from around 70 into the middle 60s.
Friday...
We expect another beautiful day with highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s with a dry pleasant northwesterly wind at 10 to 15
mph. Most forecast models are dry, but the 12Z HRRR develops
some isolated general thunderstorms across our far
western/southwestern zones during the evening hours. Will stick
with the majority of the model members for now and keep Friday
evening dry, but can not rule out having to possibly add some
isolated thunderstorms to the forecast in our west.
Friday Night through Saturday Night (T-Storm Chances)...
We have a persistent upper trough situated over the north
central United States with little short waves rotating through
bringing periodic chances for thunderstorms. The next decent
short wave will rotate through our forecast area mainly during
the day on Saturday into Saturday night. This currently appears
to be our best chance for more widespread appreciable showers
and thunderstorms. The wind shear will be pretty decent for this
time of year with a 50-60 KT jet stream over our area and thus
with typical July instability we should also see at least a
marginal threat for severe thunderstorms. Would not be surprised
if this SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area gets upgraded as we get
closer, something worth keeping an eye on.
Sunday (T-Storm Chances)...
We will still have the upper trough in our area, but difficult
to say where the surface front will be after outflows from
Saturday`s convection. Models currently favor our southeastern
zones for thunderstorms on Sunday, but with lower levels of
confidence than on Saturday.
Monday through Wednesday...
Upper trough slides a little further east and covers much of the
north central and northeastern United States while an upper
level ridge begins to build across the western United States.
Overall northwesterly flow aloft will keep bringing periodic
chances for thunderstorms and temperatures that are below normal
to near normal for this time of year. For now we have dry
conditions Monday and Tuesday with the next little wave coming
by around Tuesday night, but confidence in shortwave timing
this far out, in this pattern, is rather low.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR Conditions expected through TAF period. Breezy NW winds will
decrease after sunset, with light NW winds expected overnight.
Winds will increase after sunrise on Friday, with sustained
winds around 12kts and gusting to 20Kts during the late
morning-afternoon hours on Friday. Clear skies are expected
overnight and Friday morning. A few high clouds are possible
Friday afternoon.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Davis
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1001 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the
weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Continue to see a weak boundary traversing our CWA causing
mostly showers. The boundary will shift off to the east shortly
after midnight leaving another quiet night. Guidance is
signaling for low cloud and patchy fog development late, so will
continue to keep clouds in the forecast through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and
moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig
into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday. This will
provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day with the passage of the front moving through during the
evening hours. There will likely be some cloud cover extending
northward from convection to the south so thunderstorm coverage
is expected to be quite limited during the first part of the
day.
As the front approaches during the afternoon and evening,
diurnal heating will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms
across the area. Due to the lack of strong and focused forcing,
development is expected to be quite disorganized with the best
potential for stronger storms across and east of the Scioto
River Valley region.
Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the
overnight period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday.
Temperatures will start off a bit below normal on Saturday and
warm to above normal by Monday. A short wave will track out of
the central part of the country and cross the region late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mid level
troughing will persist beyond this time although surface ridging
will eventually build in. This will lead to nearly seasonal
temperatures and another generally dry period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Focus in the TAF period includes an initial period of breezy
showers early in the period (and perhaps a storm), followed by
another bout of low stratus/fog late tonight into early Friday
morning.
The latest HRRR has storm tops increasing a bit over the next
two hours as our developing line of showers shifts east toward
central Ohio. This could bring a better chance of thunder into
the TAFs for ILN and the Columbus terminals... though can`t rule
it out at DAY and CVG/LUK either.
Have leaned toward this morning`s conditions (persistence) as
far as the low stratus late tonight. Guidance again shows more
of an MVFR base... however, in this very moist environment
believe formation will initially be below 1,000 feet AGL before
lifting some with heating.
Heading into Friday afternoon, a disturbance will bring another
good chance of showers to the terminals. Thunder will be
possible, which will be introduced in future updates as
confidence improves.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions will prevail for July 4th activities this
evening.
- The best chance for thunderstorms (40-50% chance) will focus
along and south of a Paris to Shelbyville line late tonight.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
01z/8pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from far
western Wisconsin to Oklahoma. A broken line of convection has
developed along the northern part of the boundary from Wisconsin
into central Iowa. These storms are being maintained by a modestly
unstable airmass with MLCAPEs of 1000-1500J/kg and strong upper
support from a vigorous short-wave trough over Minnesota/Iowa.
Meanwhile further south along the front, robust clusters of
thunderstorms have developed from southwest Missouri into Oklahoma
thanks to a much more unstable environment with MLCAPEs of
2500-3500J/kg. In between the two areas of convection, the
boundary is currently inactive immediately west of central
Illinois. Cannot rule out a stray shower as the front pushes
eastward overnight, but think most locations north of the I-70
corridor will remain dry. Further south, some of the storm
clusters currently ongoing across southwest Missouri may lift
northeastward ahead of the cold front and spill into the SE CWA
toward dawn Friday. Have therefore maintained 40-50 PoPs
along/south of a Paris to Shelbyville line late tonight. Overnight
lows will drop into the middle 60s behind the front across the
Illinois River Valley, but will remain in the lower 70s
along/south of I-70.
Barnes
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
This afternoon, a shortwave trough is noted lifting from central
Illinois into northeastern Illinois with scattered showers
occurring, mainly north of a Macomb to Paris line. Latest RAP
suggests very weak instability is in place, less than 200 J/kg but
forecast soundings show the instability does poke up above -10C
at times and an isolated storm could not be ruled out. As upper
wave continues to move northeast, subtle shortwave ridging will
move in behind and should keep conditions dry late this afternoon
through much of the evening.
Late this evening and overnight, deep/closed H5 low is progged to
dig across the Upper Midwest while attendant surface cold front
sweeps across central Illinois overnight into early Friday
morning. Showers and a few storms will accompany these features,
spreading back into the Illinois River Valley likely around or
just after midnight tonight, then across the remainder of central
Illinois overnight. A narrow plume of weak instability (MUCAPE
around 300 J/kg) will support a few storms, but the severe threat
appears low given the unfavorable diurnal timing and weak
instability. Precip amounts will be light overnight across central
Illinois. NBM 75th percentile generally runs less than a tenth of
an inch north of I- 70, with up to around a quarter inch south.
Behind the departing cold front, slightly drier (low to mid 60)
dew points will begin to advect across central Illinois along
with slightly cooler temps. Expect highs in the upper 70s to low
80s across the area Friday afternoon. Despite the drier air,
steep low level lapse rates and lingering low level cyclonic flow
should drive some cold-air stratocumulus development Friday
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest instability may be several
thousand feet deep allowing a few light showers or sprinkles to
develop, especially near and north of I-74. Otherwise, dry weather
is expected to prevail Friday and continue into Saturday as high
pressure spreads from the central Great Plains Friday across the
mid Mississippi Valley Saturday.
Heat and humidity begin to work back across central Illinois
Sunday as the ridge axis shifts to our east allowing return flow
to overspread the area. Precip chances will return early next week
as a deep upper trough slowly moves east across the region.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period.
Winds will initially be E/SE at around 5kt early this evening,
then will veer to SW toward midnight as a cold front approaches
from the northwest. Once the front passes, winds will become W/NW
and gusty on Friday...with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting gusts in the 20-25kt range. FEW-SCT clouds between
3500 and 5000ft will persist through tonight, then will clear out
after FROPA. With a pocket of cold air aloft dropping southeastward
out of the Northern Plains, steep lapse rates will develop by
peak heating Friday. NAM Cu-rule indicates SCT-BKN diurnal clouds
at 3500-4000ft during the afternoon.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
958 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drier overnight tonight with patchy fog
- Rain and storms arrive near sunrise with scattered showers and
storms through late afternoon
- Dry conditions, less humid this weekend...Monday-Thursday
expected to exhibit seasonable warmth/humidity with a few rain
opportunities
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
After the abundance of clouds throughout much of the day...the
widespread rain and storms earlier followed by the scattered showers
this evening...skies have cleared out nicely just in time for
evening outdoor activities. 0130Z temperatures ranged from the upper
60s to mid 70s with a humid airmass remaining.
Much of the night will be dry as weak ridging aloft follows the
convection from earlier this evening. With winds likely going near
calm late tonight and shallow moisture in the near surface layer...
expect patchy fog formation overnight with the potential for lower
stratus to expand into the region from the east as well prior to
daybreak.
Uncertainty remains with respect to the ongoing convection from
southwest Missouri back into Oklahoma. The convection will expand
northeast into the lower Ohio Valley towards daybreak in a weakened
state but as to how expansive it is for the forecast area is
uncertain. Do not anticipate a repeat of this morning with the
widespread rain and storms but there will be at least some
convection moving into the Wabash Valley around sunrise or shortly
after.
Lows tonight will largely be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Zone
and grid updates out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Latest satellite and radar imagery show convection associated with
this morning`s complex of showers and storms pushing off to the east
with widespread cloud cover in its wake. Weak low pressure noted on
surface observations continues to push eastward into Central
Illinois and will work its way into North Central Indiana by this
evening. Surface to 850mb thermal gradient exists just south of this
low from around Kansas City through Southern Ohio acting as a quasi-
warm frontal feature. However the low level environment on either
side of the front is very warm and moist. ACARS soundings from IND
and STL indicate stability along and north of this boundary with a
developing "warm nose" around 850mb, keeping the lowest 1 km agl
stable with a marginally unstable and drier environment above it.
This warm nose will likely inhibit substantial convective
development across Central and Northern Indiana over the next few
hours. Thicker cloud cover along and north of the I-70 corridor may
also further enhance the S-N thermal gradient across the area
through the evening hours. Satellite imagery clearly indicates
stability for the northern half of Indiana with a healthy cu field
developing in Southern Illinois and Indiana as the environment
destabilizes. KSDF ACARS soundings paints a very different picture
of the environment along and south of the aforementioned boundary
with little indication of an inversion and steep low level lapse
rates with CAPE approaching 2500-3000 j/kg. This strong thermal and
instability gradient across South Central and Southern Indiana may
be the area to watch for convective development going into the
evening hours. Southeast flow at the surface with westerly flow
aloft, 40-60 kt bulk shear, 30-50kt 0-3km shear, and 100-200 m2/a2
effective helicity may be sufficient for organized convection to
develop this evening with damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and
flash flooding as main threats. Confidence is low as guidance
typically does not handle situations well that highly depend on
micro to mesoscale features. Best threat for these storms looks to
be along and south of the I-70 corridor; however if areas further
north can destabilize over the next few hours, cannot rule out a
stronger storm there as well. Central and North Central Indiana will
likely remain on the stable side of the boundary, with isolated, non-
severe convection possible, but not likely through this evening.
Tonight...
After dusk, any remaining isolated showers and thunderstorm across
Central Indiana should begin to wain as the atmosphere further
stabilizes. This should keep conditions fairly dry through the early
overnight hours. Guidance does show additional convection developing
along the boundary south of the region; however most of that
precipitation will likely also remain along and south of the Ohio
River. Central Indiana remains in a weird location, north of the
main boundary, but ahead of an approaching low and secondary front
to the north and west. Lower confidence exists in the northward
extent of convection by the early morning hours tomorrow. Lately
guidance has been way overdoing overnight convection and brining it
in too fast. So will go with consistency and keep the overnight
hours drier. Although with such a saturated airmass and a low level
inversion keeping moisture trapped at the surface, would not be
surprised to see patch fog again tonight and towards sunrise
tomorrow. Added patchy fog across the whole region to account for
this chance with the Wabash Valley and lower lying areas and valleys
having the best chance for fog development.
.Tomorrow...
There could be some showers and maybe a thunderstorm ahead of the
approaching low and associated "cold" front tomorrow morning. HREF
members and RAP guidance shows isolated showers and storms at best
during the mid to late morning hours with more widespread convection
developing east of the region later in the day. Expect a drying
trend through the afternoon hours across Central Indiana with peaks
of sun likely and temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Friday Night through Sunday...
Broad yet weak surface high pressure will cross from the central
Plains to the Mid-Atlantic this weekend ahead of a slowly-
approaching, pronounced mid-level long wave trough over much of the
central CONUS. Dry conditions will therefore return to central
Indiana as precipitable water values aloft drop by almost two-thirds
below today`s near-record levels. West-northwesterly light to
moderate breezes Saturday will bring the coolest day of the next
week, when widespread upper 70s are expected north of the I-74
corridor, perhaps at the cost of some lingering morning cloudiness.
Low to mid-60s minimums will be the rule for both Friday and
Saturday nights amid noticeably lower dewpoints. Expect more
typical July conditions for Sunday as modest southerly flow returns
mid- to upper 80s and seasonably moderate humidity.
Monday through Thursday...
The next work week should return a touch more warmth and humidity to
continue the overall seasonable conditions from Sunday. The central
US upper trough will continue to approach during the early week
while weakening and probably focusing more of a weak SW flow into
Indiana. THis combination of WAA ahead of lower heights should make
for a very warm day Monday ahead of milder readings through the mid-
week. Probably a few to at times scattered showers around the realm
during Monday-Tuesday while the trough is approaching, especially
Tuesday if a southern vort could phase into the trough axis while
crossing the Midwest. Rainfall amounts would likely be lighter and
not contribute to further drought improvement for most locations,
but isolated t-storms/downpours would be possible. A trend to
mainly dry conditions for the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe assuming
the trough pulls across the Midwest on schedule, with isolated
afternoon showers possible. Since Indianapolis` last 90F+ on June
22, IND has only reported one day above 87F (88F, July 3)...and the
highest temp currently forecasted for the next 7 days is 88F on
Monday, 7/8.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Impacts:
- Scattered convection diminishing this evening
- Potential for patchy fog and MVFR to IFR conditions late tonight
into Friday morning
- Chance for scattered showers through mid afternoon Friday
- W/NW winds gusting to 20-25kts Friday afternoon
Discussion:
Ongoing scattered convection early this evening is already moving
east of the terminals with any lingering light showers behind it
also diminishing. The rest of tonight will be quiet with winds
dropping off to light N/NW then going variable to near calm in the
predawn hours. With the rain earlier today...fog is an increasing
threat late tonight with model soundings also supporting the
potential for lower MVFR stratus to expand into the region under a
shallow inversion. May even briefly see IFR conditions near or after
daybreak Friday morning.
High uncertainty on additional rain chances for the first half of
Friday ahead of a cold front and will only highlight VCSH mention at
all terminals. After 18-19Z...all threats for rain ends with winds
shifting to W/NW and becoming gusty into Friday evening.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Ryan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1015 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through
tonight, better chances for thunderstorms will return Friday,
mainly during the daylight hours.
- A few thunderstorms Friday afternoon to early evening could
produce locally heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind
gusts.
- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold
front over the weekend.
- Warmer and more humid conditions will make a noticeable comeback
on Monday and continue into next week, along with a potential
for more thunderstorms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2024
SPC Mesoanalysis depicts elevated instability, but also plentiful
convective inhibition across the forecast area. Given model
trends, have lowered PoPs to primarily low-end slight chance PoPs
for the overnight. There were no other significant changes
otherwise.
UPDATE Issued at 610 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2024
Thunderstorms in eastern KY have diminished in both coverage and
intensity over the past hour and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505 has
been allowed to expire early. Minor adjustments were made to the
forecast based on recent radar and satellite trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 549 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2024
Convection that had worked across northern sections of the area,
has weakened after producing some locally heavy rain and a couple
instances of wind damage as well. Current trends suggest
convection in the north and southeast should work east toward VA
and WV and diminish over the next couple of hours while
convection in south central KY works toward the Lake Cumberland
area. With a warm and moist airmass in place, an isolated shower
or storm could develop outside of these areas, but with meager mid
level lapse rates and weak shortwave to shift east over the next
couple of hours coverage of all convection should generally wane
toward sunset. With convection in the severe thunderstorm watch
having dwindled some cancellations will be upcoming.
An upstream cold front will approach the lower OH Valley tonight
and work across the OH Valley region including the Commonwealth on
from Friday into Friday night ahead of a more robust shortwave
trough. Some showers or storms will remain possible in the warm
sector tonight, though coverage should peak again on Friday
afternoon to early evening ahead of the cold front and associated
mid level wave. Pre convective MLCAPE may be as high as 2000 to
2500 J/kg with bulk shear during the afternoon on the order of 25
to 35KT. Mid level lapse rates should be 6C/km or less, but low
level lapse rates could be in the 7C to 8C/km range given
sufficient heating into the 80s to perhaps near 90. Some CAMS
such as the 18Z HRRR suggest the potential for some potentially
robust activity from midday into the afternoon or a bit later than
earlier runs and wind gusts should be the primary threat and
locally heavy rain also possible with PW in the 2 to 2.25 inch
range. SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday
and this will continue to be highlighted in the HWO.
As the front shifts east on Friday night along with the associated
shortwave trough, chances for convection will diminish from west
to east as the night progresses.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 530 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2024
The period is expected to begin with broad upper level troughing
from Canada south into the Central Conus/MS Valley with a narrow
axis of ridging from the Gulf of Mexico to just east of the
eastern seaboard while another stronger ridge is expected to be
anchored along the west Coast of the Conus. At the surface, behind
a cold front that will have shifted to the southeast, a ridge of
high pressure extending across portions of the Central Conus is
expected to be nosing into the OH Valley region and ushering in a
somewhat cooler and drier airmass.
Saturday through Sunday night, an upper level low and associated
shortwave trough should lift east/shear on out to the east and
northeast on Saturday. A gradual trend of height rises into the
OH Valley, Appalachians, and OH Valley by Saturday night and
Sunday is forecast with the trough over the Central Conus
sharpening up a bit in between ridging centered over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico into the southwest and ridging over the western
Conus. At the same time, Beryl should be working across portions
of the Bay of Campeche into the Gulf of Mexico. Sfc high pressure
ridging sliding across the OH valley and then toward the eastern
seaboard combined with a general trend toward 500 mb height rises
and a drier airmass will lead to a period of drier weather and
also somewhat cooler and less humid conditions for eastern KY.
From Monday to midweek, however, return flow of more warm and
humid air should return between high pressure near the eastern
seaboard and the next cold front and mid level trough and
preceding shortwaves that generally pass to the north and
northeast. A trough at 500 mb will linger to the southwest into
the Southern Plains area. Convection may occur as early as Monday
afternoon, especially in the more southern locations, but a peak
is anticipated on Tuesday to Tuesday night ahead of the next
shortwave that moves east of the MS River and across the Great
Lakes, parts of the OH Valley, the Northeast, and mid Atlantic.
How much moisture from the remnants of Beryl is drawn northeast
from the Southern Plains is uncertain, but regardless, sufficient
return moisture should reach eastern KY for possible multiple
rounds of convection from Monday evening into Wednesday and the
cold front itself may tend to become more diffuse as it reaches
eastern KY on Wednesday. Guidance suggests Monday will the
warmest of the Monday to Wednesday timeframe with highs near the
90 degree mark for many areas, before convection and clouds should
keep highs in the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Wednesday night to Thursday, the axis of troughing at 500 mb may
remain west of the OH Valley as the cold front becomes diffuse
by this timeframe. Another cold front could approach the OH
Valley at that point and some disturbances may cross the area as
well. Chances for any convection should peak on Thursday
afternoon, although some ECMWF guidance for instance suggests it
could be dry on that day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2024
Showers and thunderstorms may impact areas on the outer edge of
the forecast area, mainly toward KSME and possibly KLOZ, this
evening, though this is very low confidence. Much greater coverage
of showers and storms is expected during the daylight hours
Friday, especially after 15z and lasting through much of the rest
of the TAF period. Expect sub-VFR conditions in these showers and
thunderstorms along with occasionally gusty and erratic winds,
but confidence in timing in placement and severity of conditions
is too high uncertainty to include in the TAFs at this time.
Otherwise, valley fog is a possibility tonight as well following
rain that has fallen today. The extent of cloud cover overnight
could be a limiting factor, but reductions to MVFR or IFR are
possible and if clouds are few LIFR or below airport mins cannot
be ruled out. At this point this should have little impact on the
TAF sites. Winds will average 10KT or lest outside of convection,
from southwest to west to begin the period, before trending to
southwest to south around or after 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CMC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
906 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
00Z upper air analysis still shows an upper-level ridge present
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S. with a
slight weakness in the ridge over northwest Arkansas. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms have decreased substantially over the
Mid-South with the loss of daytime heating. The only remaining
showers and thunderstorms are located near Grand Junction, TN.
Surface dewpoints still remain high but temperatures have dropped
enough to cancel the Excessive Heat Warning early.
Short-term models including convective allowing solutions have
struggled to resolve convective trends in this weakly sheared
environment. The HRRR seems to have a better handle than the other
model solutions with the potential for additional showers and
thunderstorms overnight if the upstream activity holds together.
Confidence in strong to severe thunderstorm potential for the
remainder of the night remains low at best as any additional
convective activity will likely be elevated. Will make some
changes to rain chances for the remainder of the night.
Updated grids will be available shortly.
CJC
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Hot and humid conditions will prevail for Independence Day. A few
strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
A brief period of mostly dry and cooler conditions will return
tomorrow before rain chances ramp up again on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Hot and humid conditions encompass the Mid-South as of 2 PM with
heat indices ranging from 105-113 degrees. A few stray showers and
thunderstorms are depicted on KNQA at this hour due to the surge of
moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave. At this time, these
storms currently are only threatening heavy rain and frequent
lightning. An Excessive Heat Warning for the entire area will
continue through 9 PM.
A stalled frontal boundary is currently stretched from the Great
Lakes to central Missouri. This boundary is pulling moisture ahead
of itself and allowing scattered storms to develop in its wake. As
this boundary slowly starts moving, a bowing segment will dive SSE
across Arkansas and West Tennessee late tonight into tomorrow
morning. The bowing segment appears to hit a localized vorticity
maxima as it should exit the region by late tomorrow morning.
Confidence remains low in severe storm development as shear is on
the lower end nearing 30 kts. The lack of shear and mid-level lapse
rates near 5 C/km indicate convection would remain surface based (as
there is plentiful SBCAPE) and will likely quickly fizzle out once
daytime heating ends. Nonetheless, if a strong to severe storm does
develop it would most likely be in extreme northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and extreme northwest Tennessee.
A cold front will sweep across the region tomorrow evening keeping
rain chances around through Saturday morning. Friday may still be a
bit humid in some portions of the Mid-South, particularly north
Mississippi, until the drier air can prevail. A Heat Advisory may be
needed, but given the potential for convection and cloud cover,
holding off on issuance for now. Residing behind the front, is a
brief period of cooler conditions with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s beginning on Saturday. Zonal flow will keep conditions
dry briefly. Sunday brings the return of rain chances as the
possible remnants of Hurricane Beryl interact with a trough. There
is a high level of uncertainty with the interaction, so we will
continue to monitor for now.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Scattered thunderstorms will continue early this evening, mainly
east of the Mississippi River and gradually die out by sunset.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to spread from west to east
across the entire Mid-South during the overnight and into the
morning hours on Friday ahead of a cold front. Some of the
thunderstorms could produce MVFR ceilings. Behind the front, VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
Winds will be mainly from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots tonight
shifting to the west overnight. Behind the front, winds will be
from the northwest at 5 to 10 knots on Friday.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ARS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1102 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely today and tonight.
- Numerous chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will
linger into next week with temperatures remaining below
normal.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
We`re all but done with phase one of this system with the
primary WAA band of showers and storms now exiting stage right.
Phase two is associated with the upper low that on water vapor
imagery was centered between Willmar and Olivia at 8pm. Lift
associated with the upper low is helping force the showers we
see near the upper low and that trend will continue through the
night as the upper low slowly moves east. For the metro, despite
the less than ideal weather during the day, any firework shows
still planned to go on this evening should find a window of dry
weather to get those off before showers return for the rest of
the night with the upper low. Severe risk the rest of the night
is gone with the loss of instability. The excessive rain risk
looks minimal as well as rain rates have come down considerably.
Still the showers associated with the upper low are moving slow
and locations that get under these downpours could pick up a
fairly quick half inch of rain before they move on.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Our first round of rain today is currently located along the I-94
corridor and slowly moving northeast. Rainfall amounts from this
activity has resulted in generally 0.1-0.2" with up to 0.5" within
the very isolated heavier cells. Behind this first round is a brief
clearing, evidenced by the lack of returns on radar and thinning
clouds and small clearings on satellite over southern MN. However,
in our weakly stable environment, it won`t take much for new
convection to develop with a little daytime heating as the mid-level
jet and vorticity maximum moves in from the west. Indeed, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are in the process of developing across
southwestern MN late this morning. This activity will move
northeast, growing in coverage into scattered broken lines of cells,
reaching the Twin Cities around 2-3 PM and western WI later this
afternoon. The best chance of severe weather remains in southern to
southeastern MN along I-90 where enough heating should result in
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE within 35-40 knots of bulk shear. A weak
tornado or two is possible within the surface vorticity rich
environment near the surface low, but the main threat from any
stronger storms will be large hail.
Heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorms, as PWATs range
from 1.2-1.4" and vertical profiles are very moist. Though, the
transient non-continuous nature of the storms should limit the flash
flooding risk to a large degree. Nevertheless, rounds of storms with
rainfall rates of 1-1.5" per hour over the same area could lead to
localized flash flooding. This will be especially true as we
progress through tonight, as the precip becomes more favored from
south-central MN into northwestern WI. Precip in southeastern MN
should decay with the dissipating instability while precip within
the deformation zone north of the occluding surface low will be
favored as synoptic lift increases. Showers and thunderstorms will
wrap westward around the surface low as it travels east, meaning
that a county wide or two area could see heavier rainfall rates for
a period of 2-4 hours. This could lead to localized areas of 3-4" of
rain while elsewhere from south-central MN to western WI will see
rainfall of 1-2.5" by 12Z Friday. The low pressure system will
slowly move east-northeast out of our area by early Friday afternoon
with lingering, but decaying wraparound precip exiting with it.
However, isolated showers and a thunderstorm may occur across MN
during Friday afternoon underneath the backside of the upper-level
shortwave.
While the aforementioned shortwave will move east into the
Great Lakes Saturday, a broader longwave trough will settle in
over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest through at least early
next week. This will result in stagnant, mild temperatures
(highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s into Monday). Additional
chances for precipitation will also be possible Saturday through
at least Tuesday as embedded impulses round through the trough.
The heavy rain and severe weather threats don`t appear to be
significant with any of the impulses, but don`t expect a
prolonged break in the wet weather just yet. However, long-range
forecast models do suggest the trough finally exits to our east
during mid-next week. At the same time, a strong upper-level
ridge will move into the western CONUS, with pieces of this
ridge potentially spilling over into the central CONUS the
latter half of next week. This signals a potential warmer,
drier summer pattern occurring eventually for our region (also
supported by the 6-10 and 8-14 Climate Prediction Center
Outlooks) sometime within the next 2 weeks. We just need to get
through a few more days of rain first.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
We`ve moved off to phase 2 of this system and thats rain
associated with the upper low itself, which at 11pm, water
vapor imagery showed being not far from Litchfield (KLJF).
Rotating around this low as been a broad shield of light to
moderate rain with some embedded downpours. As the low slowly
track ESE through the night, these areas of showers are expected
to follow the upper low. Besides the rain, the expanding
IFR/MVFR obs we`re seeing with obs is supported by moist low
levels in RAP soundings and we expect extensive MVFR/IFR stratus
through the night near the surface low that is slowly taking
shape between MSP & MKT. CIGS will slowly improve through the
morning, with another round of diurnally driven scattered
shra/tsra expected Saturday afternoon. Have included PROB30s to
cover that threat. HREF is most bullish with activity Saturday
happening west of I-35, so kept MSP/EAU/RNH dry after the upper
and surface lows clear the area in the morning.
KMSP...We expect one more round of shra to move through MSP
overnight as the upper low passes nearby. 8z-12z looking to be
the window when -shra is most likely. For Saturday afternoon,
MSP looks to have enough influence in the subsidence region of
the departing upper low to suppress diurnal activity.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chance PM MVFR/SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
859 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Most convective activity over last hour or so has been confined
to locations around and south of I-40 Corridor Region and around
and west of I-65 Corridor Region with a diminishing convection
strength trend. This area continues to support CAPE values within
a 3,000-4,000 J/KG range, instantaneous precipitation rates of 3-4
inches an hour, with total rainfall amounts in some locations
approaching 1.5 inches, as a subtle upper level shortwave digs
across this portion of mid state region this evening. A general
lean toward latest HRRR precipitation guidance taken per best
initialization with belief that convection will continue across
this area but continue to weaken as remainder of evening hours
progress. Will keep a slight chance pop for remainder of mid state
through evening hours, but it generally looks like, other areas
of mid state region will remain dry through remainder of evening
hours, including Nashville Metro Area. With a southwest to
northeast upper level flow pattern, current cloudiness across
western portions of mid state region will shift northeastward as
evening hours progress with some clearing of skies noted. Latest
Infrared satellite imagery showing an area of upper level
cloudiness developing as blow off from convection to southwest of
Nashville Metro Area presently and it may slide across Nashville
Metro Area as next hour or so progresses. Tweaked hourly
temperature, dewpoint, wind speed/direction, and sky conditions
grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly
late evening gridded values. Current regional temperature trends
support forecasted overnight low temperatures. Look for shower and
thunderstorm chances to increase after midnight from the
northwest. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Happy 4th of July, Middle Tennessee! A heat advisory remains in
effect through 7pm tonight, so if outdoors today, it is
encouraged to stay hydrated with water, wear light clothing, and
take frequent breaks. Outside of the heat, the Independence day
forecast for storms looks to have improved over the last 24 hours.
We`ve been monitoring a complex of thunderstorms associated with
a shortwave trough across western Kentucky this morning. Those
storms will stay north of Tennessee, however, any outflow
boundaries that may push out from those storms will serve as a
trigger mechanism for scattered thunderstorms to fire along.
Models continue to show ample CAPE across the area this afternoon
with values reaching near 2000 J/kg. This is no surprise with how
hot it is and how warm our dew points temperatures are. The other
parameters of interest are shear and mid-level lapse rates, which
both appear to stay on the lower side today, meaning severe
thunderstorm potential will be limited. So what it comes down to
is we`ll be watching for thunderstorms to pop-up along any
boundaries hanging over the area this afternoon. Any storms that
do develop will have the potential to dump very heavy rain with
PWAT values nearing 2" this afternoon, produce gusty winds and
frequent lightning. As we move into the evening hours,
thunderstorm chances greatly diminish as instability values tank
with loss of daytime heating and any lingering boundaries move out
of the area.
A cold front will push through Friday in response to a deep upper-
level low kicking out that aforementioned shortwave. Rain and
thunderstorm chances will fire back up overnight tonight into the
early morning hours Friday and will become more widespread
across the area as the day progresses. Models aren`t showing much
in the way of severe potential, but an isolated strong storm or
two is possible late morning. The biggest thing with this front is
that it will provide us with a much needed break from the heat.
Increased cloud cover and rain will push temperatures down into
the upper 80s tomorrow with drier air filtering in after frontal
passage Friday evening. Drier air = lower relative humidity.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
We will be on the back side of the trough come Saturday and this
will continue to usher in sinking, cooler air. It will no doubt
still be warm with highs both Saturday and Sunday in the upper
80s for most and low 90s for some, but with the drier air being
present, the feel-like temperature will be much closer to the
actual temperature as dew point temperatures drop back into the
low 60s. As we move into the second week of July, winds will turn
back out of the south Monday due to a trough building in from an
upper-level low over the Midwest. This will bring moisture back
into the area as well as rain and thunderstorm chances. These
chances will stay in the forecast each day next week and will
generally be on the low-to-medium (30-50%) side each day. Models
show our mid-level winds turning westerly during the week and this
will aid in streaming in disturbances throughout the week. As of
now, nothing alarming in terms of severe potential in the long
term.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Scattered storms will impact some terminals this evening.
Visibilities could be reduced to IFR if a terminal is impacted by
a storm. Storm coverage will decrease late this evening into
tonight. Some models bring a line of showers and storms into
Middle Tennessee from west to east close to dawn into Friday
morning. Confidence in this solution is increasing so tried to
give best first guess for initial timing of thunderstorms. Will
likely need to adjust with next set of TAFs. Winds are generally
light and even light and variable over the Upper Cumberland, but
with any storm this evening, gusts to 30 mph or greater are
possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 77 92 71 90 / 50 90 10 0
Clarksville 75 89 66 87 / 60 70 0 0
Crossville 71 86 65 85 / 40 90 40 10
Columbia 75 91 68 90 / 80 90 10 0
Cookeville 73 86 67 84 / 40 90 30 10
Jamestown 72 85 66 83 / 40 90 30 10
Lawrenceburg 75 90 68 89 / 80 90 20 10
Murfreesboro 76 92 68 90 / 40 90 20 0
Waverly 74 88 66 88 / 80 80 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Cravens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
We haven`t seen measurable rainfall at OKC for a month now, with
the last rainfall occurring at Will Rogers on June 4th. Can say
the same for Lawton, but Wichita Falls` last measurable rain was
June 11th. Naturally, this streak may come to an end on a day that
most of us would like to remain rain free.
While human nature is what it is, the atmosphere has some other
ideas. There`s a cold front draped across central and northern
Oklahoma, roughly along and north of I-40 in western Oklahoma, to
near Stillwater and then northeast to Bartlesville. This front
will be a focus point for thunderstorms to develop between 3 and 6
PM...and is generally in the same vicinity as a theta-e ridge at
700mb, which may help enhance moisture convergence even further.
This forecast attempts to marry the SREF and HRRR solutions,
increasing hourly PoPs twice, once along the front/700 theta-e
ridge...and again a few hours later along the 850mb
frontogenetical band. This is putting a lot of stock in some of
the convective allowing models, yet so far the observations would
suggest the CAMs are on the right track with the processes, but a
bit off on the important details.
The front is a bit further south than where the high resolution
models would suggest, so highest PoPs have been adjusted
southward. Best potential for convective development appears to
be along and just south of I-40 around 2PM...with thunderstorms
affecting outdoor plans for a few hours. Around midnight, another
area of storms is expected to develop...about 50-70 miles north
of where the initial thunderstorms develop. Some storms may become
severe, with wind gusts being the main severe hazard...although
lightning will be the main hazard for everyone.
Afternoon highs today will be near 100 or slightly above in the
southwest...and only in the 80s near the Kansas border. Tomorrow,
all of us should see highs in the 80s...or maybe the lower 90s. We
can therefore say goodbye to heat advisories and excessive heat
warnings for at least a week.
Fox
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Temperatures slightly increase on Saturday and Sunday, with highs
in the lower 90s...still warm, but not nearly as hot and humid as
what we have seen earlier this week. Long wave trough will move
across the area, giving a low shot at thunderstorms in the late
afternoon/early evening hours during the weekend, with Sunday
having the highest probability (40-60%) occurring Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Point forecast soundings suggest precipitable water values close
to 2" Sunday afternoon and evening, which is in the top 10% of
climatological values for early July. (Mean for July 7th is
1.38"), so the atmosphere would be primed for the potential for
localized heavy rainfall for those lucky (unlucky?) enough to be
under any thunderstorm core Sunday. Plenty of time between now and
then to dive into the details.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast period appears to be
slightly less hot than normal, with afternoon highs in the upper
80s.
Fox
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
A cold front will have move south of all TAF sites by 050600.
North to northeast winds will follow. Thunderstorms will be
exiting southern Oklahoma early Friday, but other storms are
expected to develop over the southern half of Oklahoma by sunrise.
This will also move southward during the morning. VFR conditions
are expected outside of storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 87 66 91 / 60 20 0 10
Hobart OK 70 87 65 92 / 50 50 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 72 88 70 93 / 60 40 10 10
Gage OK 64 84 62 91 / 30 20 10 20
Ponca City OK 65 87 65 93 / 10 0 0 10
Durant OK 74 88 70 94 / 50 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...09
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
244 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
* A long duration heatwave is expected that will result in a
moderate to major HeatRisk lasting through at least the middle of
next week.
* Dry conditions continue into next week with chances of showers
and storms remaining below 5% through the weekend.
* Breezy afternoon winds may produce elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest RAP upper air analysis shows the CWA being underneath
the eastern portion of a large high pressure ridge this afternoon.
Current surface observations and satellite imagery report dry
conditions as well light and variable winds across most of the
region underneath sunny skies. Southern Mono County however does
have some high clouds forming as an exception to the previous
statement. Going through the rest of the day and through the
weekend, forecast guidance projects the ridge slowly moving
eastward where it continues to control the upper air pattern over
the western CONUS. Models then show the axis of this ridge passing
over the CWA on Tuesday afternoon along with a weak upper air low
moving off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. On Wednesday, model
guidance projects the CWA to be underneath the western portion of
the ridge as the ridge`s advance continues with the aforementioned
upper air low moving northward over the CA coast. What this upper
air pattern translates to down at the surface is that temperatures
are expected to continue to rise to above normal values going
into the weekend and into the beginning of next week. It does not
look that until the later half of next week that this heat will
break and it could be a slow decline at that.
While dry conditions are mostly expected to prevail, the main hazard
for the upcoming days will be the above normal temperatures and
heat. While the region expects to top off in the 80s and 90s for
high temperatures today, some areas of western NV including the Reno-
Tahoe International airport see around a 70% chance of hitting the
century mark today. The NBM probabilities of 100F or greater then
increase to between 70-90% with the coverage starting to expand a
bit on Friday. By Saturday, these NBM probabilities cover a good
portion of the western NV portion of the CWA along with portions of
northeastern CA while the upper limit raises to around 95%. As this
looks to remain this way going through next week along with the
expected moderate to high HeatRisk in the region, the Excessive
Heat Warning for western NV and the Heat Advisory for the CA
portion of the CWA continues for Saturday through Wednesday.
Please see the heat products for more detailed information on
these upcoming heat hazards. It is recommended to take precautions
during this time such as limiting outdoor activity, taking breaks
in a cool area, staying hydrated, and checking in on neighbors
and relatives that may be more susceptible to heat related
illness. For more heat safety tips, please visit
weather.gov/safety/heat. Near record to record high temperatures
and warmest low temperatures are also possible for this weekend
and going into next week.
While models show the CWA staying dry through the weekend, they
do show single probabilities of precipitation returning next week
which are still pretty low. There may be a chance that they
increase when the ridge starts to depart in the latter half of
next week. But for right now, the precipitation chances look to be
rather low. Will continue to monitor to see if these chances do
increase in future model runs or if there is a chance for some dry
lightning that may cause a fire weather concern. Also with the
ongoing CA wildfires, will be monitoring for potential smoke in
the area though for now there may be some slightly hazy skies in
some locations for a bit. -078
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue at all REV TAF sites through the remainder
of the holiday and going into tomorrow. Models show clear skies over
the region with the exception of a few clouds over western NV
tonight during the overnight hours. Typical afternoon breezes are
also in the forecast across the region with KMMH possibly seeing
gusts up to around 20 kts between 20Z-03Z. Well above normal
temperatures through the weekend and into next week still look to
result in density altitude concerns across the whole area. -078
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No major changes from the previous fire weather forecast package
with well above normal temperatures, low daytime relative humidity
values, and dry conditions prevailing for the rest of the week and
into next week. However, winds look to a limiting factor as they are
generally light and unsupportive of critical weather at least
through the remainder of this week. Beyond this week, models are
hinting at some gusts near or above 30 mph starting on Sunday within
the Sierra and Sierra Front areas. So, will continue to monitor
these conditions over the next few days as this could lead to
periods of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions for
those localized areas. There are also some very slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms starting on Sunday afternoon. However,
these chances remain at or below 5%. -078
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High and Warm Low Temperatures for July 6th-9th
at Reno-Tahoe International Airport (KRNO)
-------------------------------------------------------
DateRecord High Record Warm Low
------ ----------- ---------------
July 6101F 71F
July 7102F 68F
July 8104F 71F
July 9104F 69F
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ002.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT
Wednesday NVZ001-003>005.
CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday
CAZ070>073.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
924 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 903 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Top of the hour obs are cooling slightly for those in the great
outdoors ready to enjoy fireworks around our Four-State area.
Heat index calculations are all down in the double digits except
for a handful of our bigger city heat islands. All sites in the
metro area are still just into the lower triple digit range. At
least there is a little wind stirring the air temps in mid to
upper 80s for most sites. It was 82 degrees for the cool spot in
Magnolia and 91 for the warmest at Texarkana and all metro sites
in NW LA. No changes to lows on the forecast grid for this warm
overnight.
Natures fireworks are perhaps just out of distant site over the
horizon in SE OK. Nothing convective yet in our area, but perhaps
some outflow winds working in there, so no changes to the fringe
PoPs/Wx in McCurtain for late this evening. The HRRR model is
looking at arrivals just after midnight at the latest, but the 18Z
GFS was a little faster. We still have good CAPE, but a little
midlevel cap on our sounding at 00Z around 700mb. So hopefully we
can get the outflow to overcome that feature now with the sun
gone. If not, this outflow may slip by unused at least on this
outset. More convection to come in our short term. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Friday`s convection marks the beginning of a more prolonged
unsettled pattern for the ArkLaTex, as the upper level ridge which
has been locking in our heat all this week finally begins to shift
off to the south and east enough to allow the upper level trough
digging south over the Plains to swing its associated surface
boundary into the region, looking to become stalled here throughout
the extended forecast period. This new pattern will be characterized
by more seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows
in the lower 70s, owing primarily to near daily rainfall chances as
several waves of storms keep conditions damp through the weekend and
into early next week.
Saturday will see a continuation of the overnight convection
greeting daybreak this weekend, followed by a bit of a respite
overnight, then another round of convection beginning early Sunday
and continuing through the day. This behavior will feature in
something of a "rinse and repeat" pattern into next week, as the
stationary boundary remains in place. In a nutshell, daily rainfall
chances are in store through to the end of this forecast.
Meanwhile, the model guidance consensus continues to track Hurricane
Beryl on its westerly course, potentially bringing impacts to
southern Texas in the early hours of Monday. Beyond that, the track
of this system is far less certain. While impacts to the ArkLaTex do
not look especially likely as of this writing, they cannot be ruled
out altogether either, and we will of course be monitoring the
latest tropical forecast updates attentively in the coming days.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
For the 05/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions continues this evening
as the late afternoon cu field gradually diminishes. Convection to
our NW will gradually spread SE overnight with advancing outflow
boundaries possibly initiating new showers and thunderstorms after
midnight through daybreak down along the I-30 corridor. Therefore,
have included VCSH/VCTS at TXK from mid to late morning while low
confidence precludes any mention of convection farther south and
east. Otherwise, expect returning cu/stratocu with low VFR cigs by
late morning or early afternoon. Light S/SW winds will veer more
W/NW with advancing outflows and the eventual frontal passage in
the latter half of the TAF period.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 81 96 78 92 / 10 60 40 40
MLU 79 95 74 92 / 10 70 40 40
DEQ 73 89 68 90 / 50 50 20 10
TXK 77 93 73 93 / 40 50 20 20
ELD 75 92 70 90 / 30 60 20 20
TYR 77 95 75 91 / 20 50 30 40
GGG 77 95 74 91 / 10 50 40 50
LFK 77 97 75 91 / 10 40 30 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
604 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chance (20% or less) for storms this afternoon or early
evening, mainly in Anderson County.
- Dry weather Friday and most of Saturday gives us a short break
from the wet pattern.
- Another chance for storms Saturday night into Sunday, otherwise
slightly below normal temperatures continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Surface cold front has continued to trend faster this morning, and
is through most of the forecast area as of 19Z. It has also become
more diffuse, but looks to be located near the I-35 corridor. As
clouds have cleared, this should allow for enough destabilization
for 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but convergence still looks weak along
the boundary. Lapse rates also don`t look overly impressive (7 deg
C/km at best) and the best upper support remains well north of the
area with the trough axis over the northern Plains. All this points
to low confidence in storm development along the front before it
exits the area completely. Previous runs of CAMs were hinting at
post-frontal storms rooted somewhere in the 850-700mb layer along
the boundary at that level, but more recent HRRR and RAP runs have
backed off on this, so confidence is low on that possibility as
well. Have maintained PoPs around 20-25% to account for it, but even
that may be overdone at this point. If any storm were to develop,
Anderson County stands the best chance of seeing strong winds with
it, but once again even that is low. All storm chances should come
to an end by 8pm.
Sfc high pressure pushes into the area tonight into Friday while the
upper trough passes well northeast. Even with clearing skies and
light winds, current thinking is that the drier air behind the front
should preclude the development of fog but still something to
monitor for the overnight hours. A quiet Friday is forecast with
lows around 60 and highs in the 80s.
Northwest upper flow sets up Saturday with return flow developing in
the lower levels. This looks to bring some warmth and moisture back
into the region, though perhaps not quite to the extent that we`ve
had recently. Still, a shortwave passing through the flow aloft
brings our next best chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Saturday through Sunday. If north central KS sees these early enough
Saturday, the environment could be supportive of damaging wind gusts
as forecast soundings show an inverted-V type of profile. The main
time period for storms, however, looks to be Sunday afternoon and
evening for the entire area when PoPs increase to 60-70%. Although
Pwat forecasts around 1.5" are not nearly as high as the moisture
has been recently, there is still plenty of time for this to change
and places that have seen repeated rounds of heavy rain could still
have issues with this. Mid-range guidance indicates rain amounts up
to 1" or even 1.5" on the higher end may be possible.
The main troughing pattern looks to set up east of the region to
bring more subdued weather for the early part of the next work week.
Temperatures remain slightly below average for early July with highs
mostly in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
VFR conditions will persist at all sites through the period.
Skies will clear this evening as winds remain light and out of
the northwest.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Griesemer