Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/04/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
908 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and Storms This Evening and Overnight; Uncertainty with
Severe Potential
- Additional Shower/Storm Development Thursday Afternoon; Conditional
Severe Threat
- Flooding Possible With Heavy Rainfall
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Note, forecast confidence is fairly low. Overnight activity, which
is uncertain because of today`s cloud cover, will largely dictate
Thursday activity.
H3 trough axis is currently moving across the Rockies this afternoon
and has been keeping upper-level flow generally southwesterly. This
is sending a series of H5 short-waves and localized vort maxes into
the upper Midwest and lower Missouri River Valley. Stationary
thermal boundary remains parked from far southeast Kansas across
Central Missouri. Persistent upper-level divergence ahead of the
main trough axis has helped to augment lift and keep sky conditions
overcast for most of the day. The first short-wave perturbations is
approaching the KS-MO state line and has been generating light
shower activity mainly along Interstate 70 and south. Most of the
instability is confined to south of the thermal boundary, with
MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. The cloud cover has prevented
further destabilization this afternoon, which is likely the reason
for more general shower activity rather than robust thunderstorm
activity. Earlier this morning, CAMs were showing some deeper cores
attempting to develop, but cycles through the afternoon have held
off on convection. May see a few thunderstorms develop with one of
the passing short-waves, but overall lapse rates are note greatly
impressive. We may again see some wind if we see precipitation
loading, but the boundary layer is not as well mixed as it was last
night. The HRRR along with other CAMs are pointing to stronger
storms developing after 06z this evening along the front that will
begin moving southward as H5 height falls continue overnight. This
will produce more convergence from Interstate 70 and southward. Some
concern that the CAMs may be over estimating the instability a bit.
HREF mean values overnight are generally around 1000 J/kg.
Instability may be better further south toward the Interstate 44
corridor. The low-level jet will increase low-level wind shear
overnight in our southern counties and overall hodographs to
lengthen with the mid-level vort max increasing mid-level flow. If
convection initiates, it may be able to organize. If convection
develops, main issue will be wind gusts around 60 MPH, as LLJ
momentum could be dragged down by precipitation and precipitation
loading could lead to more downburst like storms. However,
confidence in this is rather low. We will also need to watch storm
training trends along the front. Overnight, our southern counties
are expected to see around 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rainfall, which
that itself is not an issue. However, if the probability matched
means from HREF output, between 1.50 and 2.00 inches are realized,
we may see some flash flooding. This has prompted the Flood Watch
for our southern counties. Continued rainfall Thursday may also lead
to more flooding. A lot of this is conditional on realizing deep
convection.
The current front then exits the Ozarks by mid-morning on Thursday.
More short-wave trough action over the Central Plains though will
continue to provide dCVA and result in surface cyclogenesis across
much of Kansas, with surface pressure falls extending eastward into
the lower Missouri River Valley. A trailing cold front will begin to
propagate across Kansas and eventually reach the MO-KS state line by
the middle of Thursday afternoon. The convergence along this front
will be strong, and likely augmented by larger scale synoptic ascent
ahead of the next localized mid-level vort max. Likely will see
thunderstorm development by Thursday afternoon that then continues
into the evening, mainly for Hwy. 36 and southward, though some
activity will make it to the Iowa state line. The main question is
how much instability develops. There will be stronger WAA and theta-
e advection into the area that will continue to keep dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. If there are any
breaks in cloud cover or weak subsidence through the morning,
insolation through a moist boundary layer will quickly result in
destabilization. Current HREF has been depicting mean SBCAPE values
near 2000 J/kg. With the surface pressure falls and backing surface
winds, with secondary jet streak moving over, long veering
hodographs will begin to develop. Stronger updrafts will have the
potential to become severe, and could develop supercell structure to
a few of the discrete storms. Mid-level lapse rates are again not
looking that impressive given how moist the column is, but with
rapid boundary layer destabilization and plenty of moisture,
stronger updrafts are still possible. Precipitation loading once
again will present a wind threat with stronger storms. Perhaps
stronger shear could support some larger hail, though with the large
amount of melting not sure hailstones much larger than half-dollar
would survive to the ground. There could be a conditional tornado
threat if the low-level hodographs curve enough at the time of
favorable forcing and lower LCLs, however if areal coverage of
storms quickly increases would expect a lot of disruptions to the
inflow of individual storms. Overall, would be most concerned about
downburst winds with storms tomorrow. Will need a close watch on
meso analysis for trends in both the wind field and instability to
assess threats/hazards with storms. And if there is too much
convective debris from morning activity, we may not see much in the
way of impressive storms. Even if storms are not overly robust, will
still be concerned about lightning activity storms for July 4th
activities, and may still see sub-severe wind gusts. In addition,
PWATs will likely again exceed 2 inches, which could lead to
efficient rainfall production. Again the heavier rainfall may
concentrate south of U.S. Hwy. 50, which could result in more
flooding. Thus, the flood watch will be in effect through midnight
Thursday Night. Overall ensemble probabilities for exceeding one
inch of rainfall in our southern counties is around 30 percent. HREF
probability matched means for 24 hours totals are around 2 inches,
with higher amounts further into the Ozarks Region.
For the remainder of the week into the weekend, temperatures will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Current ensemble probabilities
indicate mostly dry conditions through Friday after the cold frontal
passage. However, more short-wave activity into the weekend will
bring additional rain shower and thunderstorm chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Ceilings slowly improving with MVFR conditions returning around
09z for all TAF sites. The shower activity from Kansas has
already moved across the area at all TAF sits and moved east as
of 02z. However the uncertainty with the thunderstorms past 09z
is increasing confidence as the thunderstorm line from Nebraska
looks to be pushing southeast towards Missouri with potential to
be around 06z-09z. This potential for shower and thunderstorm
activity late tonight into the early morning hours with
potential between 09-12z. There is a severe thunderstorm risk
further on Thursday July 4th particularly for areas highlighted
from KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD brining low ceilings, thunderstorms
and winds but it will also depends the activity for overnight
tonight.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MOZ040-045-046-053-
054.
KS...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for KSZ060.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Kreller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
907 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog may develop tonight through sunrise.
- Breezy 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into
early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire on time. A
line of thunderstorms continues across the far eastern portion
of the CWA. A rogue gust of 50-60 mph is still possible but the
threat has lessened considerably allowing for the expiration of
the watch.
Will need to watch for fog formation overnight as the RAP
continues to show a saturated surface layer along with light and
variable winds occurring. If fog were to develop it appears it
would be most favorable along and east of a Wray to Gove City
line. Locally dense fog may be possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to
mostly sunny mix as lingering/increasing cumulus remains from this
morning, and has been slowly increasing this afternoon.
Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s with a
persistent southerly flow area-wide, with gusts up to 30 mph at
times.
The main wx concerns for the short term period will be the threat
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Currently there are a couple weak persistent boundaries along/north
of Highway 36, and a large front/trough over northeast Colorado just
west of Yuma and Kit Carson counties.
The latest CAMs are showing the front to the west to be the main
initiator of rw/trw. Both the HRRR and NamNest are showing a broken
line of storms developing/approaching the western CWA boundary
around 22z, potentially in 2-3 segments to start. These clusters of
storms will then push through the CWA and possibly forming into one
line around Highway 27 then push E/SE through the remainder of the
area. 40-60% chance of precip during the peak times through 03z.
The latest SPC Meso Analysis is showing 1500-3000j/kg of SBCape
already spread out over the CWA after main cloud cover dissipated
west to east by midday. DCape from Highway 27 west is ranging from
1000-1500j/kg with the highest numbers closest to the front
previously mentioned. Bulk effective shear is 30-40 knots from the
W/NW. Low level lapse rates are increasing into the 8-9C/km over
portions of the CWA, while mid level numbers are highest near
the front off west around 8-9C/km, but are slowly increasing
east towards our area.
With this, will be looking for all hazards possible for the region
through this evening. SPC still carries a Slight Risk for severe
over us with hatched hail/wind threats. Could see the wind more as
storms move east into Kansas, but hail could be the initial threat.
The difference between today and past few days is the lower levels
are not as dry, making hail more possible. Enhanced Stretching
parameter around 6 is now over the CWA, and with CAMs showing a
potential bowing structure in KS after 00z Thursday, potential for
QLCS tornadoes spin ups does exist. High PW values from 1-1.2" west
increase to 1.3-1.6" in the east, making locally heavy rainfall a
possibility. WPC carries a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall as a
result.
Looking for precip to taper from west to east between 00z-06z, with
some lingering scattered rw/trw in the east before exiting.
Thursday and Thursday night looks to remain mostly dry. There is a
low chance(15-20%) for a rw/trw in the far SW due to a weak
shortwave passage.
For temps, looking for highs on Thursday to range in the upper 70s
into the mid 80s. Overnight lows for tonight will range in the mid
50s west into the mid 60s east. For Thursday night, in the 50s area-
wide with warmest locales east of Highway 25.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
NW flow looks to be present across the Plains as a highly
amplified ridge develops across the western CONUS. Will be
continuing to watch for daily chances for showers and storms as
this is a pattern that is favorable for subtle waves moving
along the eastern periphery of the amplified ridge.
Slight chance to chance pops (20-40%) look to remain across the CWA
for most days with perhaps the relatively more favorable days
looking to be Saturday and Sunday as guidance is hinting at a
stronger wave within the northwest flow to impact the area. It does
appear that there may be some severe weather potential with it with
shear around 30-40 knots across the area and CAPE between 1000-1500
j/kg but is a bit to earlier to nail down exact specifics at this
time.
As for temperatures they are looking to continue to remain near
normal to below normal with highs generally in the 80s across
the area. The exception does look to be Saturday where some low
90s could sneak into the area. Temperatures do look to increase
as towards the start of the new work week as the ridge and
associated surface high start move more easterly. As this occurs
then the chances for rain will begin to diminish with it as
well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
For KGLD, through at least 06z Thursday there will be at least
low chances for a thunderstorm to impact the terminal or be in
the vicinity. Right now through 02z, 6sm miles reduction to
visibility with hail possible. From 06z onward, mainly VFR
expected w/ the chance for MVFR ceilings from 11z-13z. Winds,
south 15-25kts through 06z Thursday, then dropping to south-
southwest 10kts. By 11z, northwest 15-25kts.
For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions expected. There could be VCTS
impacting the terminal through about 11z Thursday along with
light rain. Low confidence on timing, but will update as some
develop/approach the area. 11z-14z Thursday, MVFR ceilings
possible then VFR from 14z onward. Winds, south-southeast
15-25kts through about 03z, then 10kts. By 11z, northwest
10-20kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1012 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Next round of widespread showers/storms arrives from the west
Thursday afternoon/evening, becoming more widespread overnight.
Confidence is increasing these showers/storms will impact
fireworks displays the night of the 4th, especially across
central and north-central Wisconsin.
- Threat for flooding is increasing Thursday evening into Friday
from this next round of heavy rain. Rivers and streams will
likely rise, with some urban/rural flooding also possible.
- The unsettled weather pattern continues Sunday through (at
least) Tuesday with on and off chances for rain/storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Heavy Rain Threat / Precip Chances:
Showers have developed across northwest and north central WI
early this afternoon, so will continue with isolated showers this
afternoon and evening, especially over northern WI, as we reach
peak heating and the robust cumulus clouds track eastward. Still
can`t rule out a rumble of thunder as instability of nearly 1000
J/kg and steep low level lapse rates will continue this afternoon.
Dry conditions are expected later tonight into Thursday morning.
Attention turns to the arrival of the next round of showers and
storms on the 4th. Deterministic and CAMs still showing slightly
different scenarios, especially the HRRR which seems to be a
fast/more aggressive outlier. Would like to ignore this solution,
but it has captured some events in recent weeks, so won`t
completely throw it out. Leaning toward a model blend, have only
made minor changes to the going forecast for the 4th, bringing in
chance PoPs from west to east through the day, with one round
possible in the later morning and afternoon associated with a push
of some elevated instability and weak warm/moist advection, then
the main round in the evening into the overnight as the main
shortwave, low pressure and upper trough drop across the region.
Still some uncertainty on just how progressive this system will
be, which will likely determine how much rain we will get. While
PWATs won`t be as tropical as yesterday (when we had spots over 2
inches), still respectable values approaching 1.5 inches late
tonight into Friday will be supportive of additional heavy rain.
Additional rainfall of an inch or two is looking likely (40-70
percent of an inch or more, highest in central WI) from Thursday
afternoon into Friday evening, which could aggravate flooding
issues.
Considered a flood watch for parts of the area that have received
the most rainfall the past 2-3 days, mainly central and east
central WI, as the continued bouts of heavier rain have led to
flash flood guidance (FFG) to decrease and the overall flood
threat to increase with each event. Parts of the Fox Valley have
1-hour FFG around/just under an inch, with 6-hour FFG between 1-2
inches. Parts of central WI are closer to the 1.5-2.5" range.
The pockets of heaviest rain have been in different locations over
the past few days and there has been at least a day or two of dry
conditions to help rivers/low drainage areas to lower. With the
heaviest rain still 24+ hours out, and some uncertainty on where
the heaviest bullseye will be, will opt to hold off on any flood
watch at this time but continue to highlight the flood threat in
the HWO. The threat for severe weather will be low, as the better
surface instability and effective shear will remain to our
southwest. But some of the stronger elevated storms could produce
some hail. SPC did maintain a marginal risk for severe weather in
the far southwest forecast area.
Saturday is looking dry as high pressure slides across the region.
Then the pattern turns unsettled again Sunday into at least
Tuesday as another large trough slowly rotates across the western
Great Lakes. Some bouts of heavy rain will once again be possible
with PWATs climbing back over 1 inch, possibly creating additional
flooding concerns.
Winds / Fog / Temps:
Winds have struggled a little today as mixing was a little
hampered in spots, but west winds could gust to around 25 mph
the rest of the afternoon, then as mixing decreases, winds will
decrease toward sunset. Lighter winds are expected tonight into
Thursday.
Patchy ground fog will be possible late tonight as winds die off,
but SREF/HREF showing widespread fog potential under 5%. There
will be additional fog chances during the overnight and early
morning hours, especially after the heavier rain events and
if/when skies clear.
Above normal temps will continue into Thursday, then a brief cool
down arrives on Friday. Temps rebound close to normal for the
weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Mainly VFR conditions expected through Thursday afternoon, with
deteriorating flight conditions occurring over north central and
central WI Thursday evening.
Clear skies, light winds and wet ground from recent rainfall
could lead to patchy ground fog overnight, but confidence is too
low to add to the TAFs.
An approaching low pressure system and warm front will bring a
chance of showers and storms to mainly central WI late Thursday
afternoon, though timing is still a bit uncertain. More
widespread showers and storms should overspread the region
Thursday night, possibly reaching the eastern TAFs by late
evening.
Light west to southwest winds will become southeast to east
Thursday afternoon and evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
913 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGE...
- A couple rounds of showers and storms are expected Thursday; one
during the morning and a second during the late evening and
overnight. There is increasing confidence in a relative lull in
precip coverage during the late afternoon and evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
While a stationary frontal boundary remains draped across central
Illinois this evening, the effective boundary is much further
south from the Ozarks into the Ohio River Valley where a broken
line of convection has developed. Other than an isolated shower
or two south of I-70, the majority of the KILX CWA will remain dry
for the balance of the evening and through a good portion of the
overnight hours. Clusters of thunderstorms currently developing on
the tail end of the stationary front across Nebraska/western
Kansas in association with a short-wave trough ejecting out of
the Rockies will track/develop eastward overnight. Latest runs of
the HRRR/RAP continue to suggest convection reaching locations
along/southwest of a Rushville...to Shelbyville...to Robinson line
before dawn Thursday. As the wave approaches, showers and storms
will overspread much of central Illinois after sunrise...before
shifting eastward into Indiana by midday. Have updated hourly PoPs
to better reflect current obs and expected trends tonight. Have
also added patchy fog to the forecast tonight as calm winds and
dewpoint pooling in the vicinity of the front will be conducive
for fog. CAMs have been slow to catch on, but the most recent runs
of the HRRR and GFSLAMP are trending foggier.
Barnes
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
This afternoon, synoptic cold front is located roughly near the
I-55 corridor, while effective front from earlier convection just
barely clips the southeastern forecast area near Lawrenceville.
Temps jump from the low 80s north of the effective boundary to
around 90F south. Anticipate this to be the main focus of
convection as we head into the mid to late afternoon hours. Latest
RAP suggests around 1500J/kg or higher MLCAPE is in place on the
warm side of the boundary, but deep layer shear is marginal/sub-
marginal around 20-30kt. Storms should begin to increase in
coverage in this vicinity by late afternoon or early evening, and
a few could be strong to marginally severe. Latest HRRR keeps this
activity a county or two south of the forecast area which lines
up well with current location of the front.
Overnight into Thursday morning, a pair of shortwave troughs will
move across central Illinois resulting in an increase in showers and
a few storms. Weakening surface front will likely stay stalled
across portions of southern Illinois with weak/negligible
instability in place north of the front across central Illinois
which will keep the threat for severe storms out of the local
area.
After the shortwave exits central Illinois early Thursday
afternoon, there is growing confidence in a relative lull in
precip later Thursday afternoon and at least early evening before
a stronger shortwave digs across the Upper Midwest later Thursday
evening into Friday. Despite passage of the weaker shortwave
midday Thursday, mid level height falls will persist across
central Illinois through the day in advance of the next deeper
wave, contributing to at least some spotty convection during the
afternoon/early evening, but coverage should be fairly isolated at
this point, and should allow many locales to kick off their
Independence Day celebrations. By mid to late evening, moderate
instability (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) begins to lift back north into
portions of central Illinois coinciding with the arrival of the
deeper wave / closed 500mb low into the Midwest. Storm coverage
will increase in response. Unfavorable diurnal timing should keep
the severe threat low Thursday night into Friday morning, but a
few stronger storms are possible, especially west of I-55, with
seasonably strong deep layer shear overspreading central Illinois.
As upper wave begins to depart the region Friday, strong cold air
advection will overspread central Illinois in its wake and scour out
some of the low level moisture. There will be a brief respite from
the precip chances once this occurs and will persist into Friday.
Temps will be lower, too, with afternoon highs generally in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and Saturday. Surface ridge axis will
shift across the area Saturday afternoon with return flow
overspreading the area Sunday. Heat and humidity will begin to creep
back up in response and broad upper troughing over the Great
Plains will be in place with several shortwaves ejecting across
the region Sunday through the first half of next week bringing
additional chances for showers and storms.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Diurnal MVFR ceilings that developed across central Illinois this
afternoon have scattered as of 2330z: however, a thick blanket of
cloud cover AOA 15,000ft continues to stream across the sky from
the southwest. Convective development has thus far been confined
to locations much further south near the Ohio River and will
continue to be focused south of the TAF sites through tonight.
HRRR/RAP have been consistently showing showers/thunder spreading
N/NE late tonight into Thursday morning, so have added a period of
predominant showers between 12z and 18z at KSPI and between 13z
and 19z at KDEC/KCMI. Further northwest, have only mentioned VCSH.
While thunder will be possible at the I-72 terminals Thursday
morning, have opted not to include it at this time until trends
become better established. Once the morning showers depart, a
relative lull in precip chances will be on tap for Thursday
afternoon. Winds will remain light/variable through the entire 00z
TAF period.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
624 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There remains a low chance for showers into this evening,
mainly along the US 24 corridor.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
Thursday into Friday, best chances (40-60%) late Thursday
night into Friday. Warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s.
- Dry conditions and near normal temperatures for the weekend.
Near normal temperatures look to stick around for much of next
week (highs mid 80s, lows mid 60s) with sporadic, low chances
for rain/storms. The best chances for rain/storms will be on
Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Warm and humid conditions have returned as a warm front lifted north
through the area overnight. A weak cold front is currently entering
our area, with showers/storms possibly developing out ahead of it
this afternoon and early evening. There is a Marginal Risk for
severe weather (level 1 of 5) along and south of US 24. A few storms
could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain
as the primary threats. Storm coverage should be isolated to
scattered at best. I would not be surprised if SPC chooses to
pull the Marginal Risk entirely from our area as there is very
low confidence in storms reaching severe criteria. Model
guidance continues to trend with less instability (500-1000
MLCAPE) this afternoon, and low/mid level lapse rates are sub-
par amidst only 20 to 30 knots of 0-6 km shear to work with. If
the RAP is correct, there also could be an EML to work with this
afternoon that caps any storm development.
There are additional chances for rain/storms for the Fourth of July
and again Friday. As a surface low lifts northeast across Missouri
Thursday evening, the attendant warm front will lift north through
our area. This could result in some rain/storm chances for Thursday
evening, although I`ve kept the highest chances (30-40%) confined to
along and south of US 30 for now. These PoPs will likely need
adjusting in subsequent forecast updates as we get more
certainty as to how far north the warm front gets. Should the
boundary stall across our area, this would lead to lingering
showers/clouds overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Friday`s
rain/storm chances are conditional to what happens Thursday;
should any clearing occur Friday morning, there would be chances
for rain/storms to redevelop again late morning through the
afternoon on Friday along a cold front. I would not be surprised
if SPC adds us into a Marginal Risk on Friday given the
favorable parameters for severe weather, especially on the NAM
and NAMNST. Soundings midday Friday from the NAMNST depict an
unstable environment with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 40 kts of shear,
and moderately steep low and mid level lapse rates.
For the weekend, dry conditions, comfortable humidity, and cooler
temperatures return! Saturday will be the cooler day of the weekend
with highs in the mid 70s. Next week, the latest CPC outlook has
near normal temperatures favored (which would mean highs in the low
80s, lows in the mid 60s), which is somewhat unusual for mid
July. There has been a pretty consistent signal in model
guidance the past few days that next week will be near normal
for temperatures with sporadic, low chances for rain/storms.
There are no consistent signals for high heat to return until
possibly 10 to 14 days from now.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Weak cool front will wash out into KFWA tonight into tomorrow. Low
chances for an isolated shower remains in the forecast into this
evening here, with KSBN dry and mainly clear north of the boundary.
Additional low chances for showers then arrive late Thursday
morning into Thursday afternoon on the northern fringes of a
convectively aided shortwave. Mainly VFR with light winds
otherwise, though will have to watch for patchy fog/stratus
development at KFWA toward daybreak given moist low levels and
light winds.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
814 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widely isolated thunderstorms possible south of I-80 Thursday
morning and areawide by late afternoon. Conditions do not
favor widespread thunderstorm potential.
- For prime July 4th fireworks display time Thursday evening
(through ~10 PM CDT), thunderstorm chances appear low but not
zero, with higher t-storm coverage expected overnight/early Fri.
- Next favorable window for scattered or higher thunderstorm
coverage appears to be Sunday PM and on Monday.
- Temperatures averaging near seasonable through mid next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
No significant changes to going forecast for tonight. Main
focus continues to be on the potential for isolated (10-20%
coverage) showers and thunderstorms south of about a Pontiac IL
to Wheatfield IN line this evening, and along the WFO LOT/ILX
border region overnight.
Latest surface analysis depicts a weak, nearly-stationary cold
front along the above mentioned line. Surface temps in the
low-80s and dew points in the low-70s characterize the low-level
air mass ahead of the front, though RAP forecast soundings
indicate fairly poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer
maintaining some weak capping. Low-level winds are very light,
less than 10 kts on either side of the front, providing only
weak low-level convergence as well. Mid- level winds (and
resulting deep layer shear) have increased a bit since this
afternoon however, in association with a weak mid-level short
wave tracking east-northeast out of Missouri, which may yet aid
in developing a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across our
far southeast counties through mid-late evening and a couple of
shallow, isolated showers have developed over far southeast
Iroquois and Benton counties recently. The weak front is
expected to slowly sag toward a Bloomington IL to Rensselaer
line overnight, which along with the aforementioned mid-level
wave, may result in a few additional isolated showers or storms
across our far south cwa overnight. Going forecast has this
well-covered, with slight (20%) pops along the boundary through
the night.
Forecast into Thursday continues to look reasonable as well,
with a gradual increase of convective chances south of the
Illinois and Kankakee river valleys by mid-late morning as the
front begins to lift slowly back north in association with a
potential MCV developing from activity currently ongoing across
western KS.
Ratzer
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Through Thursday:
A cold front drifting SSE has continued to force isolated warm-
core showers within an axis of pooling low to mid 70s dew points
roughly south of a Pontiac to Valparaiso line. Modest mid-level
warming around 500-600 hPa should greatly mitigate thunderstorm
chances, but a few sporadic lightning strikes cannot be ruled
out with the strongest cores. This activity will continue to
shift SSE with the front into early evening.
The cold front will stall/wash out across the far southern CWA
and over central Illinois tonight. Isolated showers and perhaps
a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out at anytime tonight
south of a Bloomington to Rensselaer line as the right entrance
of a 80 knot upper speed max remains generally stationary above
a weakly capped and higher theta-e airmass.
A mid-level wave crossing southern Colorado this afternoon will
force a cluster of convection along a boundary lifting
northward across southern Kansas/Missouri overnight. Guidance
depicts a decent amount of spread in the downstream trajectory
of the (now convectively enhanced) wave is it tracks into
central/southern Illinois by late Thursday morning. This is
likely the result of the MCV favoring a WNW to ESE MUCAPE
gradient toward far southern Illinois in opposition to the
stronger WSW steering flow aloft directed into central Illinois.
Overall expectations are for the better coverage of convection
to remain south of the forecast area, but for the footprint of
the wave to potentially force isolated to widely scattered
storms south of the IL/Kankakee River Valleys late morning into
the early afternoon.
Beyond early afternoon, diurnal heating and modest low-level
moistening will support a weakly capped airmass across much of
the CWA. Overall forcing by this time looks to be quite nebulous
with little mid to upper-level forcing in place. However, any
subtle low-level convergent boundaries like residual outflows,
an expected lake breeze, or axes of differential heating from
scattered mid/upper-level clouds could ultimately force isolated
showers or possibly a few storms mid-afternoon into early
evening. This does not appear to be a wash-out by any means, but
enough for those with holiday plans to keep mindful of forecast
updates through the day.
Kluber
Thursday Night through Wednesday:
Early to mid Thursday evening, surface low pressure will be
centered over southern Minnesota, with its trailing cold front
extending southward across central Iowa and northern Missouri. The
parent short-wave trough will also be centered well back to the
north and west, resulting in only minor mid-level height falls
into the western Great Lakes. A majority of forecast soundings
depict a largely capped environment, at least to any deeper
convection capable of producing lightning. With relatively dry
mid-level air being drawn northeastward and sunset, it`s
questionable if just enough moisture may materialize at the right
level to tap into 250-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Given the above with frontal convergence/forcing well west but
modest large scale forcing and near climo PWATs, there may be
spotty isolated to perhaps widely scattered showers (highest
chance/30-40%) near and west of I-39 in the 7-10pm timeframe.
Current signs point toward the peak fireworks display time
probably being dry in much of the area, though as noted, can`t
rule out a few showers in the area. Confidence is lower in any
thunderstorms being able to develop, at roughly 15-30%, highest
near/west of I-39. This period will needless to say be monitored
closely. Shower chances may uptick some/ooze farther east in the
late evening, though thunder potential is still questionable.
As the cold front sweeps across the region after midnight,
stronger large forcing (increased height falls and frontal
convergence) and a bit better column moisture should more readily
erode MUCIN to offset the diurnally unfavorable timing for
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. A seasonably muggy
night can be expected out ahead of the cold front, with temperatures
in the 70s most of the night and dew points well into the 60s.
On Friday, following a quieter balance of the morning, the
seasonably stout mid- upper trough (500 mb heights in the mid 560s
DaM) will translate east from Wisconsin to northern Lake
Michigan. Steepened low-mid level lapse rates from cold air
advection and maximized mid-level height falls should result in
isolated to widely scattered showers near and north of I-80. Can`t
rule out an isolated rumble of thunder or two, though diminishing
lower level moisture (decreasing Td) looks to be a limiting
factor. A fairly tight pressure gradient over the region and
deeper mixing will result in westerly winds gusting up to 30-35
mph. Looking at highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, coolest for
the northwest 1/3 or so of the CWA.
Friday night through Saturday evening will be quiet from weak
surface high pressure sliding east across the area, along with
seasonable temperatures, albeit with lower humidity levels.
Broad west-southwest to southwest flow aloft and seasonable to
above normal column moisture (PWATs 100-150% of normal) will
likely open the door for periodic scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances Sunday through Monday evening. While there
may be sufficient deep layer shear for some storm organization
during peak diurnal favorability, it doesn`t appear to be a
favorable synoptic pattern for noteworthy severe weather. In the
wake of the cold front passage Monday night, humidity levels may
come down some, with primarily dry conditions.
Castro
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Forecast concerns include...
Low chance for showers/thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening.
Wind directions Thursday morning.
Light westerly winds will likely continue through the evening
into the early overnight becoming variable or calm by the
predawn hours. Wind directions will eventually become more
easterly by mid morning Thursday with a lake breeze expected for
ORD/MDW/GYY keeping wind directions easterly through the
afternoon. Further inland, winds are expected to turn southerly.
There will be a chance of showers well south of the terminals
Thursday morning. Then there will be a low chance for isolated
showers or isolated thunderstorms across northern IL and the
terminals Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There is
little to focus any development, with perhaps the lake breeze
aiding any isolated development. Confidence is too low to
include any mention for both uncertainty for timing and
coverage. There may be better chance for showers and a few
thunderstorm late Thursday evening into early Friday morning,
ahead of a cold front. cms
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely for tomorrow
and tomorrow night.
- Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into
next week with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
If you`re a fan of fair weather days... enjoy this one while it
lasts! Temperatures will drop into the mid-low 70s around sunset,
and cloud cover will begin to increase from the southwest overnight.
The upper trough over the northern Rockies is still on track to
deepen and develop a closed low as it moves east into the Upper
Mississippi Valley early tomorrow. A band of showers and few storms
will likely develop along the warm front across western MN shortly
after midnight, eventually expanding north and east throughout the
morning. Outside of some isolated precip, most locations will likely
see a few hours of dry conditions before more scattered to widespread
showers and storms develop during the afternoon. CAMS continue to
favor less of a widespread heavy rain event, and more of a localized
concern depending on what areas see the strongest and most numerous
storms. In other words, a broad swath of 1+ inches of rain is
still expected across southern and central MN, but CAMS suggest
that only a county or so will see values in excess of 2-3
inches. The area of focus looks to be somewhere within south-
central MN (just west of the TC metro) where the deformation
zone is expected to set up (northwest of the surface low). HREF
probabilities have a line of 40-60% chance for greater than 2
inches of rain (in 24 hours) extending from Redwood Falls up
towards Rogers, MN. As we head into the evening, precip should
become more isolated across southern MN while showers and storms
closer to the low should be favored with the continued synoptic
lift.
A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and
evening, however a few factors could limit things. 1) Lapse rates
will be modestly steep at best (about 6-7 C/km); 2) Extensive cloud
cover could limit instability, with only 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE
expected (greatest over southeast MN); 3) elongated/straight
hodos suggest splitting cells could interact/interfere with one
another; and 4) vertical wind shear will also be somewhat modest
(25-35 kts), potentially limiting storm organization. That
said, all hazards will be on the table for any storm that is
able to develop and become organized. Given the relatively
cooler temperatures aloft and the hodo signatures, hail
development would be favored, with a few instances of large hail
possible. This hail threat was noted as the main reasoning for
our upgrade to a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) on the SPC Day 2
Convective Outlook. Non-supercell tornadoes/funnels will also be
possible, especially near the surface low as it tracks through
southeastern MN. Bursts of heavy rain and strong winds will be
likely with any organized storms as well.
Several more chances for rain will be possible through the middle of
next week as the upper level heights remain in a western ridge,
central trough pattern. QPF amounts continue to look meager from
event to event, but could total up to an additional 1-2 inches for
some through this period. Temperatures will stay near or below
normal into next week, before potentially climbing as we head into
mid-July. Both the GEFS and EPS suggest a few days in the 90s will
be possible, but this will largely be dependent on how/if the ridge
over the western CONUS builds eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A very unsettled period is expected as we see a mid-level low
track across southern MN on Thursday. Looking at the path of
850mb & 700mb low, the HREF shows these features tracking from
roughly Montevideo to Wabasha, along/north of this track will be
a favorable zone of forcing for seeing multiple rounds of
precipitation and thats what`s expected for most of the MPX
terminals. A continuous rain is not expected, but it will be on
& off activity for a good 12-20 hours. TS potential looks
greatest from the afternoon into evening. Surface pressure
pattern will be very baggy through the day on Thursday, so wind
directions will be tough to pin down, but speeds will be under
10 kts. Finally, RAP soundings show low levels moistening up
enough late in the afternoon to start bringing in MVFR cigs for
locations that area expected to be north & west of the
developing surface low.
KMSP...Models are absolutely all over the place with when/where
clusters of SHRA/TSRA will be through the day on Thursday and
into Thursday night, hence why precip mentions in the TAF are
VCs or PROB30. Current thinking is that the band of showers
along the eastern Neb/SoDak border will send an initial round of
showers through the metro during the morning, with a brief lull
in activity during the afternoon, before thunderstorms quickly
redevelop. As mentioned above, winds could be coming from just
about any direction on Thursday, though speeds will be generally
5 kts or less.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind N 10G20 kts.
SAT...Chance PM MVFR SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...MVFR/SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 10G20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
746 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy westerly winds through the early evening with gusts up to
20mph common area-wide, and higher gusts to 30-35mph possible across
the Keweenaw.
- Pop-up showers/thunderstorms (20-30% chance) will be possible into
the evening.
- Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior
western Upper Michigan on Independence Day.
- Widespread moderate rain expected late Thursday night into
Friday evening. Some thunder possible.
- While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm
chances return for Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
RAP analysis shows mainly zonal flow setting up over the area this
afternoon as a closed low continues to move through northern
Ontario, towards Hudson Bay. Over the Great Lakes, skies have been
able to turn sunny with large-scale subsidence indicated in water
vapor imagery. However, with diurnal mixing, plenty of agitated
cumulus has popped off over the UP. This remains fairly well capped
over the west, but cooler cloud tops are apparent in the eastern UP.
This hints at a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and
storms across the central and eastern UP as we head through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Given only a few hundred j/kg of CAPE
over the area, no severe weather is expected. Though any rain totals
should be light for the most part, areas where multiple storms can
move through could see QPF in excess of a quarter inch. This is most
likely in Luce county, where the highest cloud tops are already
developing (perhaps some lake breeze convergence?).
Otherwise, temperatures are turning much warmer than yesterday, with
most of the area already well into the 70s and lower 80s. The
exception is in the eastern UP, where areas along Lake Michigan
continue to struggle to get out of the 60s courtesy of onshore flow.
Meanwhile, winds remain on the breezy side, with gusts up to 20mph
common across the western half of the UP. Higher gusts in excess of
30mph continue to be observed at times across the Keweenaw. Winds
should fall back as we head into the evening and the boundary layer
decouples.
Tonight, ridging will continue to strengthen over the forecast area,
with any lingering convection over the eastern UP wrapping up by
midnight. Outside of that, though, it will be a dry night with
overnight lows generally in the 50s, low 60s to the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
High pressure centered over Lake Superior will provide a pleasant
Independence Day for most of the U.P. into the afternoon hours. By
later afternoon weak shortwave moving east from main upper trough
over the Upper Mississippi Valley may help trigger a shra or tsra
near the WI border. Most will remain dry through the day. Light
onshore flow near Lake Superior will keep temperatures a little
cooler than today but inland temperatures will once again climb to
around 80. Main upper trough and surface low will move from
Wisconsin Thursday night to northern lower Michigan by Friday
evening. Shower and isolated thunder chances will increase
significantly across the west by late evening with rain chances
becoming likely across the remainder of the U.P. during the
overnight. On and off rain and isolated thunder will continue
through much of the day on Friday. Cool northeast winds off Lake
Superior will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 near
Lake Superior with mid 60s inland. Winds will be more easterly over
the eastern U.P. so temps will climb into the lower 70s there. Most
of the U.P. with the exception of the Keweenaw will see between 0.50-
0.75 inches of rain with locally higher amounts especially along the
pivot point of the low track and where any isolated thunder occurs.
Precip amounts will be much lighter across the Keweenaw.
High pressure and clearing skies will move in Saturday morning
leading to a pleasant seasonable summer day.
The next quick moving disturbance will move in from the west Sunday
afternoon with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing through
the day and lasting into Monday.
High pressure builds back in by Tuesday afternoon and will persist
through the middle of next week with seasonable summery weather
continuing.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Showers have generally moved east of the terminals this evening
and will be dying out after sunset. Gusty winds will also be
subsiding after sunset. Otherwise, VFR prevails for the
forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Westerly winds that have been a little gusty around the Keweenaw and
Isle Royale will diminish quickly this evening. Winds will then
remain below 20 kts into Friday morning. Low pressure moving across
WI into northern lower Michigan on Friday will allow northeasterly
winds to increase to perhaps as high as 25 knots over the eastern
Lake Friday afternoon and early evening before the low moves off to
the east later Friday night. Southerly winds ahead of the next front
moving across the Lake on Sunday may briefly approach 20 knots but
all and all a fairly quiet stretch of marine winds is expected over
the weekend into the middle of next week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...MZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
249 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure brings a prolonged heatwave starting tomorrow and
lasting through the middle of next week.
* Afternoon highs will be 10-20 degrees above average by the weekend
resulting in a moderate to major HeatRisk, a Heat Advisory for the
California portions of the region, and an Excessive Heat Warning
for the western Nevada portions.
* It will remain very dry with typical afternoon breezes, and a very
low chance, less than 5%, for precipitation in the weekend.
.DISCUSSION...
The latest RAP upper air analysis shows high pressure over the
Pacific Ocean allowing for the CWA to have a northwesterly flow
aloft being underneath the forward portion of an upper air ridge.
Current surface observations along with satellite imagery show sunny
skies this afternoon with generally light and variable winds though
eastern portions of the CWA are reporting the occasional gust up
to around 20 mph. Going forward through the rest of the week and
into next week, forecast guidance projects the upper air ridge
dominating the upper air pattern over the western CONUS through at
least Tuesday night when it may start finally advancing eastward
on next Wednesday. With this pattern potentially staying in place,
the region looks to see temperatures within the region increase
with triple digits possible in some portions for multiple days.
While dry conditions are mostly expected to prevail, the main hazard
for the upcoming days will be the above normal temperatures and
heat. According to the latest run of the NBM, portions of western NV
now see a 20-60% probability of reaching 100F or greater on
Independence Day. By Friday, these NBM probabilities increase to 50-
80% with portions of northeastern CA starting to enter into the area
of coverage. By Saturday and lasting through the following days
through Wednesday, NBM probabilities increase even more to around 60-
95% percent within the CWA. As a result of these probabilities
showing multiple days of triple digit temperatures as well as the
latest HeatRisk guidance being moderate to high in the region, the
Excessive Heat Watch for western NV has been upgraded to an
Excessive Heat Warning beginning on Saturday and lasting through
Wednesday at this time. Also, a Heat Advisory has been issued for
the eastern CA counties of the CWA with daytime high temperatures
ranging between 90-100F with some locations possibly exceeding the
century mark. Please see these heat products for more details on
this upcoming heat hazard. It is recommended to take precautions
during this time such as limiting outdoor activity, taking breaks
in a cool area, staying hydrated, and checking in on neighbors and
relatives that may be more susceptible to heat related illness.
For more heat safety tips, please visit weather.gov/safety/heat.
It is also worth noting that the Reno Area has not had more than
two consecutive days of 105F high temperatures in climate history
with the last time of this occurring being in mid July of 2023.
There could be a chance that this consecutive day record is broken
along with daily high temperature records with the upcoming heat.
Winds through the period are still are expected to be generally
light or typical for this time of the year. However, some models are
hinting at a slight uptick with wind gusts up to around 40 mph in
mountain areas especially on Sunday. This would bring some
concerns for fire weather after a period of hot and dry
conditions. Models are also still showing some hints of
precipitation on each day beginning Sunday and going into the
middle. However, the chances for showers and thunderstorms still
remain at or below 5% at this time. Will continue to monitor this
in case these chances increase. -078
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expect to persist at all REV TAF sites today and
going into tomorrow. Models show clear skies over the region with
the exception of a few clouds over western NV tonight during the
overnight hours. Winds look to be generally 10 kts or less at
most sites with the exception of KMMH seeing gusts up to around 20
kts out of the west between 21Z-03Z. Temperatures continue to
rise through the weekend resulting in density altitude concerns
across the whole area. -078
.FIRE WEATHER...
No major changes from the previous fire weather forecast package
with above normal temperatures and dry conditions prevailing for the
rest of the week and into next week. However, winds generally look
generally light and unsupportive of critical weather at least
through the remainder of this week. However, models are hinting at
some gusts near or above 30 mph starting on Sunday, especially over
mountain areas. So, will continue to monitor these conditions over
the next few days as this could lead to periods of near critical
conditions for those localized areas. There are also some very
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Sunday
afternoon. However, these chances remain at or below 5%. -078
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ002.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT
Wednesday NVZ001-003>005.
CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday
CAZ070>073.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
957 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Air temps are running all through the 80s, but working down out
of the upper end anyway. Shreveport Regional was 84 last hour, but
with the deep soil temp so warm, we are still radiating heat into
the air and edged back to 87 with a light S/SW wind. KSHV had a
nice shower and rainbow late today as the sea breeze rode all the
way up I-49 with a nickel in the bucket. As usual, more wind than
rain this far north with a gust to 32 mph at 639pm, but what
little coverage we managed develop before sunset is nearly all
gone at this time, aside from two tiny late arrivals over Toledo
Bend at this time. So no planned changes as the pop grid goes
silent at 03Z in a few minutes. We will resend the zones at that
time to remove any further widespread mention of rainfall this
evening. Although the HRRR does crop up a few more QPF blips,
coverage will be quite isolated. Most sites are calm with some
patchy fog possible where rain did wet the ground. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Thursday night`s storms will only become more widespread Friday
morning, moving to cover the entire region into the afternoon hours.
At this time, the entire ArkLaTex is highlighted in the general
thunder area by the SPC, and careful attention will be given over
the next few days to any potential for more organized stronger
storms.
This will mark the beginning of a more prolonged unsettled pattern
for the ArkLaTex, as the upper level ridge which has been locking in
our heat all this week finally begins to shift off to the south and
east enough to allow the upper level trough digging south over the
Plains to swing its associated surface boundary into the region,
looking to become stalled here throughout the extended forecast
period. This new pattern will be characterized by more seasonable
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s,
owing primarily to near daily rainfall chances as several waves of
storms keep conditions damp through the weekend and into early next
week.
Meanwhile, the model guidance consensus continues to track Hurricane
Beryl on its westerly course, potentially bringing impacts to
southern Texas. While impacts to the ArkLaTex do not likely as of
this writing, we will of course be monitoring the latest forecast
updates attentively.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
For the 04/00Z TAF period, outflow driven convection has pushed as
far north as the I-20 corridor early this evening with brief impacts
at SHV in the form of heavy downpours and gusty winds. This isolated
convection will diminish with the setting sun in the next few hours
with limited convective debris clouds lingering overnight. However,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail although patchy low stratus
may become scattered closer to daybreak along and south of I-20.
Otherwise, look for a similar trend of expanding cu field Thursday
with S/SW winds averaging between 5-10 kts.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 100 81 98 / 20 10 10 40
MLU 79 97 79 95 / 20 20 10 60
DEQ 76 97 74 91 / 10 10 30 40
TXK 80 99 78 96 / 10 10 20 40
ELD 77 97 75 94 / 20 20 20 60
TYR 80 99 78 96 / 0 0 10 30
GGG 79 98 78 96 / 20 10 10 40
LFK 77 97 77 97 / 20 10 0 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ097-112-
126-138-150>153-165>167.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-
136-137-149.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms are forecast across the area late this evening and
overnight, which could bring strong winds to central KS and heavy
rainfall particularly across east central KS.
- A few severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern KS for the late
afternoon and early evening hours of Independence Day.
- Another chance for storms Saturday night into Sunday,
otherwise slightly below normal temperatures continue into
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Upper air pattern hasn`t changed a lot in the last 12 hours with
broad cyclonic flow over the northern tier of the US and the ridge
over the southeastern US leaving us within southwesterly flow aloft.
Sfc ridge has been slowly moving southeast from NE into KS today,
while the frontal boundary from yesterday has remained stationary
across southeastern KS. Scattered showers are still more robust
southwest of the area with light rain slowly moving northward. Lapse
rates are rather meager over the area, so thunderstorms should be
pretty isolated the rest of this afternoon into the early evening
with perhaps some dry time before the main round of storms comes in
late tonight.
A vort max passing through the flow aloft should initiate storms off
the High Plains later this afternoon into the early evening, and
CAMs remain in good agreement on those moving east into our area
late tonight. Most places should stay dry until after midnight,
except perhaps far western locations in the CWA. Generally speaking,
these storms should also weaken as they move east as MUCAPE looks to
remain under 1000 J/kg, but still can`t rule out a few damaging wind
gusts toward central KS if storms remain strong enough when they
enter the area.
Heavy rainfall looks to be the bigger concern for most of the area.
At this time, the moisture axis is progged to set up just south of
the forecast area where PW is forecast to be 2+ inches. This area in
southeast KS to southwest MO is also where the HREF shows the
strongest signal for rainfall amounts exceeding FFG, with the 90th
percentile having totals of 2-3". That said, the HRRR has not been
nearly as aggressive on this as some other individual CAMs have. If
more guidance starts to show some of these higher amounts creeping
north just a little bit, a Flood Watch may be warranted for our far
southeast counties.
The overnight batch of storms should push east of the area around
sunrise or shortly thereafter. A few additional showers and storms
may develop in central KS mid to late morning before moving out or
dissipating by afternoon. The main storm chance comes with a frontal
boundary crossing the area during the day, although lingering cloud
cover does lead to some questions about how well the atmosphere will
be able to recover and destabilize ahead of that boundary. Assuming
there is enough instability, thunderstorms look to develop near the
KS Turnpike around 4pm and then move east/southeast. Damaging wind
and heavy rainfall are again the main threats. Think the main time
frame for this activity should last until around 8pm, so most can
hope to see dry weather by the time fireworks celebrations begin.
By Friday, the main upper trough is progged to be in the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions, leaving the area in northwest flow.
Another shortwave ejecting through that looks to bring our next
chance for storms Saturday night through Sunday. Otherwise,
temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below average
throughout the next 7 days with highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Light showers will persist at the terminals over the next few
hours, ending at KMHK within the hour and KTOP and KFOE by
around 8 PM. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible
later, around midnight, and persist into the morning hours. MVFR
ceilings moving in behind will remain the main aviation hazard
for much of the day Thursday before skies begin to scatter out
following a cold front passage. Have kept out mention of VFR
ceilings for lack of confidence in timing, but should begin in
the mid afternoon Thursday as winds shift out of the northwest.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Griesemer