Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/03/24

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 522 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms on Tuesday hold a severe threat across most
  of SW Kansas.

- Widespread thunderstorms Wednesday currently only amount to a
  marginal risk via the SPC.

- Independence Day, and the rest of the forecast period, will be
  mostly dry and cool with highs in the 80-90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

As the upper-level trough persists overhead, the surface cold front
has stalled across SW Kansas with benign showers along it. CAMs have
had it moving east later in the afternoon although comparatively it
has moved much slower. This casts doubt on convection developing
along the front after leaves the forecast area. This comes in two
parts, both that the convection could develop sooner and take place
over the forecast area, and second that the convection may not
initiate and develop as expected. Barber county almost unanimously
has some convection across CAMs, but the strength and coverage is
under large scrutiny.

Later into Tuesday, most CAMs have more discrete cells moving into
Kansas from Colorado. Almost every 12Z CAM had a strong supercell
signal somewhere in the western zones. However, the latest 18Z HRRR
run has no such signal despite consistently holding one through the
17Z runs. Lingering cloud cover from the stalled front may be to
blame for this. Regardless, this creates more difficulty in an
already uncertain storm setup. Plenty of environmental ingredients
exist for storms that are able to develop with the exception of
shear being quite marginal. NAMNST forecast soundings have CAPE
>2500 J/kg and 0-3 SRH >150 m2/s2 near the KS/CO border. The severe
threat will primarily be wind and hail, but tornadoes can not be
ruled out if a strong supercell can develop and maintain itself.

After the severe threat into the overnight, CAMs show a spattering
of precipitation, with ensembles placing a >25% chance for
accumulation across the majority of SW Kansas. Around 1Z, another
weaker cold front is expected to move through the forecast area via
ensembles. The cold front will again shift the winds to being from
the NW. CAMs have convection initiating along most of the front, with
very little precipitation behind it. Our northern zones boast the
best chances (>40% from ensembles) for precipitation.

As the last of the convection in our northern zones moves out and
the cold front passes over SW Kansas a slightly cooler airmass takes
residence over the forecast area. Additionally, the wind shift to
the NW after the cold front passage will result in CAA further
adding to cool temperatures on Independence Day. Ensembles have
highs in the 80s across the majority of SW Kansas.

Friday through the rest of the forecast period will be mostly dry
and host seasonably cool temperatures as our previous upper-level
trough pattern gives way to a more ridge dominated regime. This
pattern assists in transporting cool, dry air from the far northwest
CONUS. Long range ensembles have highs in the 70s and 80s and do not
show a meaningful accumulation signal (>0.1) other than Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will then
be possible overnight, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF
sites generally after 05-07Z. Low level stratus and areas of patchy
fog may develop within a moist/easterly upslope flow toward daybreak
Wedmesday morning, resulting in potential MVFR cigs/vsbys through
mid-day Wednesday. Light east-northeast winds are expected to persist
through much of the period as a weak cold front sinking southward
through southwest and south central Kansas, stalls out near and along
the Oklahoma border this evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...JJohnson




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

 650 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Storms Late Afternoon Through Evening

- Heavy Rainfall Will Augment Flooding Issues This Week

- Additional Storm Chances Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mid-level trough axis is progressing across the central Plains late
this afternoon bringing subtle H5 height falls into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Stronger jet streak is starting to move into
Central Iowa and has focused stronger upper-level divergence north
of our forecast area, though some lift is still ongoing in north-
central Missouri late this afternoon as noted by continued cloud
development on GOES-16 satellite imagery. At the surface, a deeper
surface cyclone has been developing over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces in response to stronger dCVA ahead of the mid-level trough
axis, through secondary dCVA has been promoting moderate surface
cyclogenesis across the Central Plains this afternoon. This has
resulted in surface pressure falls as far east as Central Missouri
this afternoon and has promoted southerly flow through most of the
afternoon, with robust theta-e advection. Temperatures have reached
the lower to mid 90s across most of the area with dewpoints in the
lower to mid 70s. A cold front is currently situated from east of
Omaha, Nebraska southwestward through Junction City, KS to just east
of Dodge City, KS. An effective warm front that resulted from
differential heating has surged into southern Iowa. Rather robust
warm sector has been developing across eastern Kansas into Central
Missouri, with MLCAPE values already pushing above 3000 J/kg. This
has largely been driven by strong boundary layer mixing resulting in
boundary layer lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. The limiting factor to
initial updrafts (prior to 00z) will be mid-level lapse rates that
are weaker (struggle to get beyond 6.7 C/km) as there has been
minimal mid-level cooling through the afternoon. With that being
said, with some large scale ascent present and with thermal boundary
in Iowa, CI is still expected and this trend is realized already
with glaciation in day-cloud phase satellite imagery. Prior to 00z,
a few discrete storms are possible in north-central Missouri. Deep
layer shear has been increasing, with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40+
kts and lengthening hodographs that will support the potential for
supercell structure. Although the effective warm frontal boundary
has surged into Iowa, there is still some low-level SRH present that
may be able to organize low-level mesocyclone development. Current
analysis suggests 0-500m SRH 50-75 m^2/s^2 and 0-1km SRH between 75-
100 m^2/s^2, and may support tornadic development. However, low-
level storm relative flow of 25-30 kts may end up disrupting
tornadogenesis processes, and also much of the vorticity ingest may
be more crosswise than streamwise, as a rightward storm motion
deviation would be needed to realize a more streamwise ingest.
Current Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) guidance has been suggesting
stronger rotation potential into southern Iowa closer to the
effective warm front, where SRH values should be locally enhanced
and better potential for streamwise ingest. While it is important to
note that updraft-helicity (UH) tracks do not equal tornado tracks,
it does provide an idea of SRH that is in the atmosphere and ability
for low-level mesosyclone intensification. The HRRR has been
indicating some tracks in north-central Missouri with initial
development along with some of the WoFS runs, however, the greater
magnitudes and probabilities have been shifting northward. With that
being said, there is some CAPE within the hail growth zone, and in
this high theta-e mid-summer air mass, the low-level shear and
mesocyclone with even crosswise vorticity could actually help some
hail embryos grow despite unimpressive mid-level lapse rates with
discrete storms. Then finally, model soundings suggest decent theta-
e deficits within the convective boundary layer that could promote
negatively buoyant downdrafts resulting in damaging wind gusts.
Eventually, the discrete storm potential is expected to start
growing upscale as the previously mentioned cold front begins to
move eastward as dCVA picks up and the surface cyclone slides
eastward. The LLJ should also be ramping up during this time period
after 7pm. Expecting a linear storm mode to develop after 00z,
mainly presenting a wind threat between stronger negative buoyancy
downdrafts developing as well as precipitation dragging LLJ momentum
toward the surface. There may be some hail threat along the cold
front with initial updrafts but after congealing should mainly be a
wind threat. At the moment, 0-3km bulk shear vector will be oriented
primarily parallel to the cold front and associated line of storms.
Thinking that mesovortex generation and associated QLCS tornado
threat would be largely limited, but will need to watch out for
surges along the line that could reorient it. Watch for subsequent
mesoscale discussions on threats associated with the QLCS later this
evening, mainly after 00z (7pm CDT). Eventually, cold front sweeps
through the area, and pushes most of the storm activity out of our
forecast area by 05-06z. As for flooding and hydrology related
concerns, the storms should be rather progressive. However, with
PWATs near 2.5 inches across most of the warm sector ahead of the
cold front, storms can be very efficient rainfall producers in a
short period of time. For the KC metro, HREF mean values are around
0.75 inches, with probability matched mean values near 1.30 inches.
Current guidance suggests flooding in the KC metro could start with
1.5 inches for both 1-hour and 3-hour time ranges. Therefore, with
recent flooding events, have included our western counties in the
flash flood watch. For our northeast and north-central counties,
while recent rainfall has not been as heavy, greater synoptic scale
lift along with two rounds of storms potential this afternoon and
evening could result in rainfall amounts between 2-3 inches, with
locally higher amounts of 4 inches possible based on HREF
probability-matched mean guidance. Although these areas outside of
the metro can handle heavier rain, these thresholds may be met, and
thus have issued the flood watch east and northeast as well through
12z Wednesday morning. In additional to flash flooding and areal
flooding, flooding concerns continue along the Missouri River and
other tributaries that flow into it.

The weather pattern remains active through the end of this week, and
could impact July 4th holiday. The cold front on Wednesday likely
stalls nears the Ozarks, and could produce more rain shower and
thunderstorm activity in our southern counties. However, this will
largely depend on instability and atmospheric recovery. Another
short-wave ejects and mid-latitude cyclone develops that could
bring another round of severe storms to the area on Thursday, along
with heavy rainfall. Specific mesoscale details will analyzed at a
later time. Temperatures will continue to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the OOZ TAF...A broken line of thunderstorms is advancing
southeast across western Missouri this evening. This will bring
a period of strong thunderstorms to the terminals early this
evening after which conditions should quickly adjust back to
VFR with a wind shift to the north overnight and back to the
south for the day. More storms may be possible at the end of
this TAF cycle, but confidence in the timing is low enough to
not to include in this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ003>006-
     012>015-020>024-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ002>008-012>017-
     020>025-028>032-037>039-043-044.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.
     Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ025-057-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Cutter




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 601 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms remain possible mainly south of I-70
  this evening. A low chance (20%) of severe storms overnight
  with large hail the main threat.

- Wednesday, there is the potential for a significant severe
  weather day for the area. Storms are forecast to move west to
  east across the area with the potential to produce hail up to
  3 inches, wind gusts up to 75 mph, and tornadoes. There are a
  few scenarios where storm coverage is instead limited and
  weak.

- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; normal to below normal
  temperatures into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mid level troughing is present across the area currently with a weak
cold front draped across southern portions of the area. 700mb
moisture looks to continue for the most of the area keeping skies
partly to mostly cloudy. Some thicker stratus looks to impact
northern portions of the area as well to start the afternoon with
continued overcast skies.


Weak shortwave which is currently moving off of the Rockies will be
the focal point for storm development as it reaches the Palmer
Divide. RAP has been showing an increase in 700-500 mb moisture
correlating with continued CAM initiation roughly around the Flagler
area around 20Z. Strong to marginally severe weather is possible
initially due to a lack of instabilty as dew points in the mid to
upper 40s are in place. As this continues to trek east into better
moisture do think a slow intensification process looks to occur. RAP
forecast soundings indicate an environment that would be
favorable for 70 mph winds and hail up to two inches in a fully
mature cell.

Cold front will slowly lift north as a warm front tonight. Another
weak wave will move off the mountains and with an increasing
LLJ will add to lift across southern portions of the area. HRRR
is currently suggesting an environment that would be supportive
of severe weather overnight across SW portions of the area with
stronger moisture advection. RAP and NAM are not as aggressive
on the moisture return which would keep elevated CAPE values
down some. Thinking there is some potential for overnight hail
around half dollar size with a mature cell. Showers and storms
will expand in coverage into the morning hours to the east. Will
leave the patchy fog in the forecast for tonight across the
east as the RAP continues to show around 90% surface RH and
light easterly winds which is supportive of fog development;
however if the showers and storms do occur that will end any fog
potential where the rainfall is ongoing.


RAP consistently has been showing a signal for low stratus to hang
around the majority of the day Wednesday so have trended high
temperatures down a few degrees along and east of Highway 27 where
this is forecast to occur. The main focus for the day Wednesday will
be on another round of severe weather. A sharp surface trough will
be across the region. A 250mb jet streak will also be developing
throughout the day to provide upper level support. A dry line looks
to be situated across Colorado which will be the focal point for
initiation, potentially as early as 1pm MT. Supercells capable of
very large hail initially, perhaps a tornado threat can develop as
well if a cell can remain discrete into the mid to late afternoon as
SRH increases. Storms are then forecast to grow upscale with outflow
boundaries as they interact with a very moist air mass and a
strengthening LLJ as it moves to the east. Do have some concerns
of a bow echo developing as 700mb winds increase into the
evening hours; if this does occur then wind gusts in excess of
70 mph will be on the table. There may be some potential for a
quick spinup squall line (QLCS) tornado as well along the
leading edge as the RAP does indicate 25-50 j/kg of 0-3 CAPE.
Depending on the orientation of the line if its W to E or NW to
SE oriented will be dependent on the tornado threat as the 0-3
shear vector looks to be oriented more SE to NW. However there
is some potential that storms will be more isolated and/or be on
the weaker side due to concerns about instability especially if
the cloud cover does in fact linger all day. There also does
appear to be some concern on the timing of the wave off the
Rockies as well which would turn the severe threat into if
severe storms in the Nebraska Panhandle can follow a CAPE
gradient into the CWA. So there area still quite a bit that
needs to be worked out so continue to stay up to date with the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

To start the long term, a cold front will move across the area on
the 4th of July holiday in response to a developing ridge across the
western CONUS, will also need to watch for low stratus development
Thursday morning as 850 mb moisture moves along just ahead of
the front. A surface high nudges in tightening the pressure
gradient across the area which looks to bring breezy conditions
to the area. Be sure to use caution if using any fireworks! High
temperatures are currently forecast in the 80s across the
majority of the area. Low to slight chance shower and storm
chances will remain in the forecast with 700-500mb moisture
potentially moving in from the north during the afternoon and
evening hours. Thursday night into Friday morning, the surface
high will still be influence the weather across the region which
will support lower dew points and lighter winds especially
across the west. Would not be surprised if some higher
elevations across the west fall into upper 40s for low
temperatures.

A blocking pattern at least from temperature standards looks to
occur as a large surface high develops across the southern CONUS
which will keep our temperatures below normal but still in the 80s
to low 90s. Upper level northwest flow will be dominant through
the extended period which will keep some potential for daily
showers and storms with any disturbance that ride down the
eastern periphery of the ridge. A stronger wave does look
possible late weekend into the early week which may support some
severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated during the TAF period for both
KMCK and KGLD. Watching for some strong to perhaps severe storm
potential near the KGLD terminal this evening though confidence
has decreased enough to not include mention in the current TAF;
some AMD may be needed if confidence increases enough that the
terminal will be impacted. Increasing moisture again overnight
could lead to stratus and fog potential at each terminal with
KMCK currently favored for fog due to lighter winds around 10Z.
Showers and storms will also redevelop tonight with VCTS at
this time favored for KGLD from 06Z to 16Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KMK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

 930 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are expected on Wednesday along with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. This boundary will then remain
in the area on the Fourth of July. Embedded mid level
disturbances will interact with this boundary, resulting in
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A stronger weather
system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio region
Friday into Friday night, continuing the threat for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Ongoing fcst remains on track this evening as /mainly/ clear
skies, aside from a few 4-5kft clouds from time-to-time, evolve
through the near term period. Temps are running about 10-12
degrees above 24 hours ago and this pattern will maintain itself
through the night as better LL moisture works its way into the
local area. Expect conditions will remain dry locally through
sunrise, with southerly winds increasing subtly toward
daybreak.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Weather remains quiet across the area this afternoon with
temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

A weak, low-level trough is moving northward on the western
periphery of the surface high pressure to the east, pumping
better boundary layer moisture northward through
central/northern Kentucky. Most dewpoints in the area are in the
50s, but mesonet stations across Kentucky are already
indicating mid to upper 60s dewpoints entering the local area.
Light southerly flow will continue to usher in this better
moisture over the next few hours before flow becomes more
southeasterly this evening. This tongue of moisture will be
directed northwestward, combining with the better surface
moisture ahead of the approaching front. This moisture will be
critical for humidity and thunderstorm development tomorrow
afternoon.

Even with the better moisture entering the area this evening, no
rainfall is expected with forcing remaining quite weak. After
the afternoon cumulus dissipates, a few scattered upper level
cloud linger into the early evening. Eventually, skies will
clear with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s and lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
There is some potential for showers and thunderstorms to be
ongoing early Wednesday morning across central Indiana. Whatever
remnant activity moves into central Indiana will struggle to
survive into the local area due to the corridor of lower
dewpoint values across eastern Indiana and western Ohio. Even if
the thunderstorms weaken, outflow boundaries and cloud debris
will play a role in temperature and rainfall forecasts later in
the day. At the same time, low level moisture will continue to
improve (low 70s and perhaps mid 70s) as the convergence
increases along the boundary. The increasing moisture and
forcing along the front/other boundaries will ultimately lead
to thunderstorm development during the afternoon and through the
evening. All three of the below impacts remain noted in the
HWO...

Heat: Confidence is fairly high that cloud debris will enter the
area through mid-morning. Depending on how quickly this clears,
some disruption to heating will be possible. Additionally, low-
level moisture will be increasing during the day. Given this
uncertainty, local heat conditions may rapidly change from the
mid-morning hours into the early afternoon. Then, developing
thunderstorms may quickly erode heat advisory conditions that
have ultimately developed. The most likely area for a short-
fused heat advisory would be across northern Kentucky, southwest
Ohio, and southeast Indiana.

Severe: Day 2 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). With the heating and
increasing boundary layer moisture, clusters of strong to
severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat with some hail possible
if an updraft split is able to change mean storm motion. At this
time, downburst winds appear to be the more likely storm mode
with limited ability for organization into bowing segments.

Heavy Rain/Flooding: While much of the area remains quite dry,
stalled boundaries situated in a very moist atmosphere, in
July, should always be viewed as potential heavy rain producers.
Ultimately, storm mode and boundary orientation remain the key
factors. The latest 18Z HRRR shows how some back-building
activity could provide isolated corridors of 2-3"+ into the
evening hours. This would be beneficial rain for the abnormally
dry conditions, but a few flood advisories may be possible in
the heavier/more flood prone areas.

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease a little during
the overnight activity, but continue mid-level forcing and
remnant instability will keep the threat lingering into Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
East-west oriented front will extend across the area at the
beginning of the period. High precipitable water and deep warm
cloud depths will extend along this same corridor. As a short
wave moves across the area, showers and thunderstorms will occur
with heavy rain potential and perhaps some damaging winds being
the concern. Exactly where that boundary sets up, which latest
data suggests will be near I-70, will have a greatest threat of
heavy rain with the possibility of training and backbuilding.

As that impulse moves off to the east, there will be a relative
lull in showers and any storms through late Thursday night.
During this time the boundary will lift north. More showers and
storms will occur Friday, especially in the afternoon in part
due to a pre- frontal trough pushing through the area. Airmass
will be the same as on Thursday, so locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible although convective elements will be progressive
and less prone to training. Damaging wind threat will also
persist.

The cold front will not move through until Friday evening with
the chance of showers and thunderstorms lingering until that
passes. High pressure will build in for the weekend and still be
influencing the region into Monday. The next cold front will
approach and move through the area Monday night into Tuesday
bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Warm, muggy airmass ahead of the first cold front will get
replaced by something more seasonal for the weekend. But
temperatures and dew points will be rising again early next week
ahead of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, except
within the SCT to numerous SHRA/TSRA that will develop after
18z Wednesday.

A thick band of cirrus will quickly push to the E of the local
terminals within the first hour or so of the TAF period.
Thereafter, aside from a few VFR Cu from time to time, SKC will
prevail until widespread diurnally-driven Cu develop/expand
by/after 15z into the afternoon. SCT/BKN VFR Cu is expected by
mid/late afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period, with
thickening mid/high level clouds as well.

Light southerly winds at 10kts or less will be maintained
through the overnight, with some SW LLWS at about 40-45kts
possible at KCVG/KLUK between about 09z-12z. By 15z, sfc winds
will have increased to 12-15kts, with gusts around 20kts, which
will persist until SHRA/TSRA activity moves through and winds
go more out of the WSW and subside a bit toward the evening
after the storms. Expect the best coverage of TSRA activity to
focus between about 20z-02z, with better coverage shifting to
the S toward KCVG/KLUK toward/beyond the end of the TAF period.
The activity should be mostly TSRA, but maintained a VCSH for
now given uncertainties in timing/location for any one site.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 710 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-After a brief dry break for the late afternoon and early evening,
additional showers move back in tonight with around a 20% chance for
thunder early on.

- Widespread southerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph (potentially up to
40mph in the downsloping areas near Superior) continue this
afternoon, falling back into the evening.

- Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior
western Upper Michigan on Independence Day. Rain/isolated thunder
spreads over the region Thursday night and Friday.

- While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
continue this weekend...especially Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Water vapor and RAP analysis continue to highlight an upper trough
and surface low over Manitoba, and a couple of shortwaves ahead of
this. The first, currently moving out of the Great Lakes, touched
off our initial round of rain showers that is slowly tapering off
across the eastern UP this afternoon. After a brief dry break, the
next shortwave ejecting out of the Plains will bring in our next
round of light showers after 00Z. Though some thunder is possible,
confidence is low with rather limited instability (a few hundred
j/kg of MUCAPE by the evening and capped soundings).

Meanwhile, with plenty of lower cloud cover over the area,
temperatures are on the cool side with most of the area only peaking
in the lower 60s. However, some spots in the western UP are
struggling even to get out of the 50s. Southerly winds remain gusty,
especially across the downsloping areas long Lake Superior, with a
strong 40-50KT LLJ directed over the area. Gusts up to 20-30mph are
common area-wide, but where downsloping becomes a factor, stronger
gusts in excess of 35mph and even up to 40mph are not out of the
question. Winds fall back into the evening while the jet shifts
eastward out of the area.

As the next shortwave moves in, rain showers become most likely
across the eastern half of the UP with areas west of M-95 possibly
staying dry the rest of the night. Another quarter to half an inch
of rain is possible across the eastern UP. Otherwise, temperatures
shouldn`t fall back too much with rain and lingering low cloud
cover. Expect lows to range in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Any lingering precipitation will end pretty quickly in the east
Wednesday morning as slightly drier air pushes in from the west.
There may be just enough leftover instability for an isolated shra
to pop up during the afternoon across the interior but most areas
will remain dry with a pleasant early summer day. Westerly winds
will be gusty, 25-30 mph, across the higher terrain of the
Keweenaw...diminishing late in the day.

Surface ridging builds in for Wednesday night through Independence
Day. Once again an isolated shra/tsra can be ruled out in the
interior west during the afternoon/early evening Thursday but most
will remain dry with typical early summer high temperatures in the
mid 70s to around 80.

Rain and isolated thunders chances increase late Thursday night
through much of Friday, especially for the south half of the U.P. as
shortwave and surface low track eastward through the lower Lakes.
Most of the rain will be east of the U.P. for any Friday night
fireworks displays.

Ridging builds back in for Saturday with seasonable temperatures and
nothing more than an isolated diurnal shra/tsra inland from Lake
Superior. The next shortwave and weak surface front arrive on Sunday
with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms...it doesn`t look
like a washout but definitely the wetter of the weekend days. One
more shortwave passes Monday with at least small chance for
shra/tsra activity before a trend towards drier and seasonable
summer weather for Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

MVFR cigs in place to start the 00Z TAF cycle. Area of rain is
approaching the WI/MI border from the SW. This rain will continue
NE, steadiest at SAW with vsby likely falling to MVFR and cigs to
IFR after around 04Z, persisting through around 11Z before cigs lift
to MVFR and scatter out later Wednesday morning. IWD/SAW will be
more on the edge of the steadier rain, with MVFR expected to hold
there, trending to VFR as this wave passes late tonight. An isolated
ts cannot be ruled out at the terminals between 03-09Z, but probs
not high enough for inclusion in the TAFs. Southerly winds will
remain gusty to around 20 kt for the first few hours of the TAF
period at SAW/IWD before diminishing. Winds shift westerly during
the day Wednesday, with gusts around 20 kt at IWD and approaching 30
kt at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Gusty south winds up to 30 kts will diminish over the eastern Lake
this evening. Expect another round of lighter rain over the southern
part of the Lake tonight which could produce patchy fog. On
Wednesday...post frontal southwesterly winds should be able to climb
to 25-30kts across the western half of Lake Superior, mainly between
the Keweenaw and Isle Royale by Wednesday afternoon. Winds lighten
Wednesday evening, and then are expected to be at or below 20kts
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...Thompson
MARINE...MZ




Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

 542 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances Wednesday
- Showery/cool conditions possible for Independence day
- Warming for the first part of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Currently the surface trough/cool front is sitting on the SD/MN
border with convection firing across E. Neb already. 500Hpa low
conts to spin across Manitoba with weak wave/trof now moving
through ern WY and into the Black Hills region. NLDN lightning
plot shows isold returns with some of the showers/thundershowers
moving through nern WY and NW Neb associated with aforementioned
weak wave and trof. Much stronger wave is now dropping into NW MT
out of BC/AB and this will be the wave that will garner the
attention for Wednesday.

As the 500hpa trof/wave moves across the area for the remainder
of today, still anticipating scattered showers/thunderstorms.
Ensembles are showing sfc based CAPE values less than 500 J/Kg and
0-6km shear AOA 30kts. While not discounting a brief TSRA with
some pea/dime hail...just am not seeing much in the way for severe
storm development for the remainder of the day.

HRRR shows RH values decreasing with subsidence behind exiting wave/trough
overnight...lending credence to a mostly clear/partly cloudy
night with seasonably cool temperatures.

On Wednesday, attention turns to stronger wave rotating through
region...coupled with east/west boundary/cool front located along
the NE/SD border. Ensembles shows SB CAPE values AOA 1k J/Kg with
little if any CIN remaining by 18z, especially across SW SD...but
show a narrow ribbon of 500-1000 J/Kg SB CAPE values lifting
northward along the WY/SD border ahead of the surface trof pushing
east. Mean 0-6 km shear values are sufficient enough (40-50kts)
that an isolated tornado can not be ruled out across SW SD in the
vicinity of the E/W boundary that will be located along the
border.

Wednesday night and Independence Day, the biggest question is how
many lingering clouds with sprinkles/showers remain as region
remains in broad cyclonic flow. 850Hpa and 700Hpa condensation
pressure defs show partly/mostly cloudy conditions through at
least mid-afternoon Thur before drier conditions try to push in
from the west. Ensemble guidance will most likely be a good first
guess for temps and will just need to make game day adjustments as
those periods get closer.

Gazing ahead...500hpa heights dont really begin to recover until
the first part of next week when western US ridge begins to
rebuild. The most active track at this time appears to take most
of the short wave energy south of the region, but the NW flow
regime can be tricky with weak embedded waves/fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 539 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Isolated showers/storms will be in the area until around
midnight. Brief MVFR conditions may be experienced with these
showers, otherwise expect VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Hintz
AVIATION...Dye