Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/02/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
939 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms persists
through the workweek.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Updated pops to clear out the western edge more quickly. The HRRR
seems to have a fairly good handle on precip trends over the next
few hours. No severe weather is expected tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Daytime heating and elevated lapse rates over western SD will assist
in the rapid development of thunderstorms in the next 2-3 hours. We
will be monitoring these storms as they near or develop across our
central SD counties around or shortly after 21Z. Initial storms will
be capable of producing large hail around 2 inches in diameter,
strong winds over 60 mph. We won`t be able to rule out a tornado or
2 with these initial storms over our area. Forecast solutions have
come into better agreement on the timing of storms between 5-9pm
over central SD and the James River Valley from 8-10pm, before
shifting to far eastern SD and west central MN 10pm-midnight.
Significant low level clouds across the James River Valley and east
should act to weaken incoming storms, despite the significant low
level moisture and strong winds. Other than lingering light showers
over our far eastern counties after midnight, dry weather should
then be the rule for much of the forecast area through the rest of
the forecast period. The exception will be our far southwest
counties. We`ll be monitoring the latest trends, as some CAMS are
pin pointing the potential for a few showers or weak thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Our temperature forecast is currently running in the 20-40th
percentile (on the low side) Wednesday through Thursday. While the
25-75th percentiles are generally within about 5 degrees, be aware
that there is room for change and more likely to higher readings for
that period.
Dry weather will continue through Wednesday morning. There is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Wednesday over our
counties west of the Missouri River. Dewpoints will be on the
increase again Wednesday late Wednesday afternoon/evening, getting
back into the low 60s. A band of higher CAPE values over 1000 J/kg
looks to move into at least our southwestern counties by around 21Z
as a trough shifts across western SD. The main surface low over
eastern CO will push southeast across western KS/OK Thursday morning.
The unsettled (at least a 30 percent chance of precipitation every 6
hours) will continue through Thursday evening, with more afternoon
and evening shower and thunderstorm anticipated through the upcoming
weekend. The 500mb trough currently over the west coast will shift
across the Northern Plains on Tuesday, and be reinforced Thursday
with a low sinking overhead before shifting across MN late Thursday
night into Friday. While a brief ridge may shift in Friday night, an
overall trough type of pattern will quickly return for the rest of
the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Low clouds in the MVFR to IFR categories remain at ABR and ATY
with improving conditions nearing MBG as a cold front quickly
shifts east of the site this evening. Strong to near severe storms
will remain possible at PIR through 02Z, with winds over 35-45kts
being the main concern. Look for VFR conditions to return to all
locations by 13Z Tuesday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
701 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Two waves of showers and storms are expected overnight and
again later Tuesday into Tuesday evening. It still looks like
the main threat is heavy rain of 1-2" total /with localized
3"/ across the area on swollen waterways and wet soils.
- July 4th has shower and thunderstorm chances increasing from
west to east as the day progresses with evening fireworks in
question. The timing and coverage can still change, but it
looks like most will get wet in the afternoon to evening.
- Unsettled weather into the weekend with periodic rain chances
and below normal temperatures. Heavy rain and severe weather
chances look minimal at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Two Waves of Rainfall into Tuesday Night and Renewed Flooding
Risk
GOES water vapor at 1830Z is showing the trough axis from the
morning IA convection now on an FSD-DVN line with radar echos
diminishing as they head east but the core remaining just west
of DSM. This also matches the low-level moisture gradient with
very dry air to the northeast. The second more vigorous
shortwave trough is really visible coming through WY which will
act to really fire up the low-level return flow in concert with
the low-level ridge shifting east at ~1025mb. The air mass is
still quite dry over the area with dewpoints in the 40s, while
the 70 dewpoint line is still in KS. GOES precipitable water is
depicting an incredible 1.8-2.2 inch tongue through eastern KS
with the 01.12Z Topeka KS soundings showing 2.14 inches. WOW.
This evening the low-level jet ramps up with 45-50 kts at 850 mb
with strong moisture transport convergence ramping upward
isentropically along its trajectory from DSM->EAU. MUCAPEs
increase into the 600-900 J/Kg range near and south of I-90 in
concert with the forcing, so SHRA/TSRA should erupt in the
later evening as the airmass transitions to more moist. The very
tropical air mass previously described to the south doesnt
fully engage over the area until later in the forcing period
tonight toward pre-sunrise. Thus, while it does look favorable
for heavy rain with warm cloud depths just below 4km, the very
high precipitable water is in place for wave #2 for Tuesday and
Tuesday evening. Amounts tonight look to be near an inch with
only a 5-20% chance of 2"+ from the 01.12Z HREF as it remains
progressive shifting east in the morning.
After a mid-day break which the CAMS are all in great agreement
on, stronger forcing again shifts in ahead of another Pacific
NW trough shortwave trough ejecting out of WY toward the area
in the afternoon. While questions remain on exactly the recovery
that occurs and where the CAPE pool will evolve northward too,
the air mass in place ahead of the wave is now tropical with
near record precipitable water. With preconditioning tonight,
soils will be primed for flash flooding with super-efficient
rain rates. By mid-afternoon, a cold front should be on about
I-35 with the main CAPE pool south of the area but 750-1000
J/Kg suggested across swrn WI and nern IA and along the cold
front. This would bump rates and cause some flash flood concern
as moisture transport convergence ramps up and another round of
convective storms erupts in the afternoon. The most intense
rainfall rates would be closer to the instability pool which the
CAMS currently disagree on for placement. The latest HRRR runs
suggest swrn WI would be in play for strong storms, while others
suggest the strongest storms are south of the area.
Have considered a Flood Watch internally and with NWS neighbors,
but think tonights rain will be tolerable and a pre-
conditioning for Tuesdays second wave. Plan at this time is to
wait on a watch and continue to assess the Tuesday ingredients.
There could be some strong storms around with maybe a gust to
40-50 mph and small hail, but rain is the main threat with
soils/rivers. See Hydrology section below for more. Also of note
is the strong low-level jet in place tonight which could cause
wind gusts of 30-40 mph west and north of La Crosse.
July 4th Looking Wet
After a dry and mostly sunny day Wednesday, yet another weather
system is shifting in Thursday. While some differences on the timing
details exist, the big picture is that shower and storm chances
increase through the day as a moderately strong trough over the
Dakotas moves in with moderate 300-500mb QVector convergence
shifting over the area later afternoon and then evening into WI.
There is still quite a bit of spread on the details of how the near-
surface trough and instability evolve Thursday with a wide range of
SBCAPE suggested by 7 pm Thursday /200-1000 J/Kg 25-75th
percentile/. Also, the trough placement and orientation is
critical to the wind shear profile. Should a more NW->SE trough
occur, southeast low-level winds would favor a bit better wind
shear. But the majority of guidance would suggest the lowest 3
km of wind shear appears to be weak in the 01.00Z Grand
Ensemble, with instability leveraged into showers and generic
storms spreading in from west to east across the area during the
late afternoon and evening. 12-hour rain amounts through
midnight look to average around 0.25". Rain chances have been
increased with this forecast.
Unsettled into the Weekend
There is excellent agreement on modest amplitude, longwave troughing
over the northcentral U.S from Friday through Monday. Friday would
feature a lingering low-level trough axis across the area which,
should there be any clearing and instability increase, would be the
focal point for storms. 01.00Z LREF suggests a 25% chance of
SBCAPE values above 700 J/Kg so there isnt a great deal of
instability to work with. While the 01.00Z Grand Ensemble is in
agreement that high rain chances exist on that trough axis,
noticeable gradients exist on its north and south sides
suggesting the location will drive precipitation chances. Should
that location of the trough shift, Friday could turn out drier
for some. Shortwave ridging builds in overnight into Saturday
morning.
An unsettled northwest flow with less predictable timing and
shortwave trough energy takes over through Monday. Each day looks to
have some chance of showers or thunder. Heavy rainfall is not
favored in this pattern and shower and storm chances are tied to
both trough passage and diurnal heating. With details hard to
extract, the forecast for the Saturday through Monday is splashed
with 30-50% rain chances. These days should have plenty of dry hours
though. Temperatures through the period should be slightly
below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
First round of storms will develop and should move into the TAF
sites towards 03-05Z with widespread TSRA expected overnight as
a low level jet transports abundant moisture into the region.
Kept TEMPO MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings as the storm
complex pushes eastward through daybreak. Thereafter, confidence
is increasing for more widespread/persistent MVFR to IFR
ceilings over the TAF sites through Tuesday morning, though daytime
heating is likely to raise ceilings slightly in the afternoon.
Second round of convection on Tuesday will be more scattered and
remains trickier to pin down trends and location. There should
be a brief lull once the overnight convection moves out, but
spotty showers/storms may be present at any point in the day.
Some additional instability will work into the region by midday
to support more storm development in the afternoon. Have just
gone VCTS for this given lower confidence.
Winds will increase out of the southeast tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens with gusts overnight into Tuesday morning of
22-27 knots. Winds relax a bit and become southerly in the
afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
he Mississippi River will remain in flood stage through at least
the next week and likely into mid-July as additional precipitation
is expected to fall across the Upper Mississippi River basin. The
bulk of this precipitation is expected to fall tonight through
Tuesday night and again Thursday evening into Friday. Exact crests
at each location are dependent on which Mississippi tributary
receives the rainfall. Tonights rainfall is expected to fall
along and near the Black, Root, Cedar, Upper Iowa, and Turkey
River basins. All of these rivers flow into the Mississippi
River at different locations, which brings uncertainty to
Mississippi River crests around Genoa southward.
With this additional precipitation, the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast
Service (HEFS) suggests a roughly 20% chance of Minor Flooding at
Black River Falls, which would take roughly 2.25 to 2.5 inches of
rain through Tuesday night. The Cedar River at Charles City has a 10
and 15% chance of Major and Moderate Flooding respectively. The
rainfall amounts that drive these chances range from 3 inches
(Moderate) to 4 inches (Major); however, the latest HREF
probabilities show only an 11% chance of receiving 2.00 inches of
precipitation, so the HEFS probabilities may be a touch too high.
As for flash flooding, the current thinking is that the moisture
transport and precipitation tonight will prime the atmosphere and
soils for a higher flash flooding threat with the second round
of precipitation Tuesday/Tuesday night. The area with the most
precipitation forecast remains along the Clayton and Grant
county border across NE IA and SW WI. Communities whose
stormwater drains into the Mississippi will be more susceptible
to urban flash flooding as storm drains may have a reduced
capacity.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baumgardt
AVIATION...Kurz
HYDROLOGY...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Storms across the forecast area with convection in the west
Monday, widespread on Tuesday, and in the north Wednesday.
- Tuesday as the best setup conducive to severe weather development
although can not be ruled out Monday and Wednesday.
- The remainder of the forecast period will be predominantly dry with
highs mostly in the 80/90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Currently, an upper-level trough is moving eastward and replacing
the trough dominated regime. A surface low is also moving eastward
along the WY/CO presently. Associated with this low, cumulus has
already begun development in eastern Colorado. Convection is
expected to continue to develop, but stay sub-severe due to a
marginal environment. NAMNST forecast soundings have around 1000
J/kg of CAPE and effective shear <40 knots. The environment is not
prohibitive enough to eliminate the potential for severe weather as
storms could briefly strengthen enough to produce severe hail or
winds. The far NW forecast zones hold the best chances (up to 25%
from ensembles) to see storms and any severe weather. CAMs have
convection entering Kansas around 0Z. Into the evening, lingering
storms could (ensembles show up to 30%) impact the western half of
the forecast area with accumulating precipitation. As this boundary
passes, winds are expected to shift from the south to from the west.
On Tuesday after warming up and seeing the southeastern zones seeing
apparent temperatures >100F, a cold front will pass through in the
afternoon providing some reprieve, but more pressingly provide the
opportunity for severe weather. The far eastern zones are in a
slight risk, but there is appreciable uncertainty on exact locations
that will be impacted. Unlike Monday, the convection will have an
ample forcing mechanism and dynamical support. The NAM places the
right entrance region of the upper-level jet over much of SW
Kansas, sufficient mid-level CVA, and ML CAPE of >2500 J/kg. With
steep lapse rates and a moist column of air, the primary limiter
will be a relatively modest amount of shear (both near the surface
and aloft). The environment is favorable for large hail (2 inches)
and strong wind gusts (70 mph), and the bigger question regarding
their impacts will lie in their location. The HRW WRF-NSSL localize
the best storm potential in our eastern zones while the HRRR extends
the higher risk farther southwest. Anywhere storms can initiate,
they are capable of producing severe weather and are worth
monitoring. After the frontal passage, yet another dramatic wind
shift is expected as winds will be coming out of the northeast.
Wednesday night will offer another chance for precipitation as
ensembles have the northern zones with up to a 50% chance of
accumulation. Despite the entire forecast area having a chance
(25%+) of precipitation, only the northern zones have a slight risk
for severe weather. However, trends in ensembles have subtly been
pushing the precipitation forecast farther south; as a result, the
risk could continue to expand southward over the coming days.
After Wednesday night, Independence day and the remainder of the
forecast period is expected to be primarily dry with a largely zonal
flow pattern. The LREF has the entire forecast area devoid
precipitation accumulations above 0.05 through the forecast period.
Ensembles have max temperatures during this dry period predominantly
in the 80s and 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. A
few passing storms could produce VCTS for GCK and HYS between
01-06Z. Winds in general will be breezy with sustained 12-22 kt
winds and gusts 25+ kts. A cold front will move across western
Kansas during the afternoon hours on Tuesday and produce a sharp
south to north change in the winds which will affect the
terminals between 18-22Z.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...KBJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
608 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Daily storm chances will continue with Wednesday and Saturday
anticipated to be the most active days while Thursday and Friday
see a decrease in thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will run near
or a few degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
We are in a typical monsoonal pattern this afternoon. High
pressure is centered east of Dallas, with an east-west oriented
ridge axis extending from our CWA to AL. This has directed the
richer portion of the moist plume west of the Divide with some
drier air trying to move into Hudspeth and Otero Counties. Of
note, there is a well defined swirl near Pecos, TX. It seems its
only impact to the CWA is perhaps some subsidence to eastern
areas. Either way, thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase
throughout the afternoon with highest chances west of the Rio
Grande.
Beginning Tuesday, our portion of the ridge will begin to weaken,
allowing better moisture to move into NM and Far W. TX. The HRRR
shows an uptick in thunderstorm coverage, possibly picking up on
the fact there will be height falls ahead of an approaching UL
trough axis. By Wednesday the ridge will have completely opened up
for our area with one center off the Pacific Coast and the other
centered toward the Southeast. Wednesday is expected to be our
most active day with a passing trough axis, rich moisture, and
height falls. Flash flooding would be the main concern.
For Thursday and Friday, drier air will move in from the north and
northwest, greatly limiting thunderstorm chances. Temperatures
will climb for Thursday, but a side door/ back door front will cut
temperatures back down for Friday. This front will also allow
moisture to return increasing thunderstorm chances for late Friday
and especially Saturday. Drier air filters back in via NW flow
aloft on Sunday, once again lowering storm chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the area with the
best coverage being along the Continental Divide and westward.
Thunderstorms have been and will continue to be capable of strong
outflow winds (30-50KT), small hail and plenty of lightning. Gusty
winds could loft up dust in areas but should be fairly localized.
Storm activity will diminish after sunset and expecting lingering
showers after 06Z tonight. Generally light winds overnight with
light breezy southerly winds expected in the afternoon with BKN-
OVC200-250.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
No significant fire concerns anticipated for the period. Monsoonal
moisture continues in place with moisture anticipated to increase
for Wednesday. This will lead to at least scattered thunderstorms
with the best chances for precipitation in the mountains and west
of the Rio Grande, spreading across the entire area by Wednesday.
Min RH values will be in the 20s with recoveries into at least the
50s. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorm influences.
Venting will range good to very good for Tuesday, decreasing to
fair to good for Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 81 103 81 101 / 20 30 50 60
Sierra Blanca 72 96 72 95 / 10 20 50 60
Las Cruces 75 101 76 98 / 20 40 40 60
Alamogordo 69 97 71 95 / 20 30 40 50
Cloudcroft 54 75 56 73 / 30 60 50 80
Truth or Consequences 72 93 72 93 / 40 70 30 50
Silver City 66 88 67 87 / 40 70 50 70
Deming 71 98 73 97 / 30 40 50 60
Lordsburg 70 95 71 93 / 50 60 50 60
West El Paso Metro 78 101 79 98 / 20 30 60 60
Dell City 73 101 75 100 / 10 20 30 50
Fort Hancock 76 103 76 102 / 20 20 50 60
Loma Linda 72 94 73 93 / 20 30 50 70
Fabens 78 103 77 100 / 20 30 50 60
Santa Teresa 74 99 76 96 / 20 30 60 60
White Sands HQ 76 98 79 96 / 20 40 50 70
Jornada Range 71 98 71 95 / 20 50 40 60
Hatch 71 99 73 97 / 30 50 40 60
Columbus 73 98 75 95 / 30 30 60 60
Orogrande 72 98 74 95 / 20 30 50 60
Mayhill 59 85 61 84 / 20 60 40 80
Mescalero 58 85 60 84 / 30 60 40 70
Timberon 57 84 59 83 / 20 50 40 80
Winston 60 83 61 83 / 50 90 40 70
Hillsboro 68 92 70 90 / 40 70 50 80
Spaceport 67 95 69 93 / 30 60 40 60
Lake Roberts 62 88 62 86 / 40 80 50 70
Hurley 66 92 66 90 / 40 60 40 60
Cliff 66 97 67 95 / 40 60 30 50
Mule Creek 67 90 69 90 / 50 60 40 40
Faywood 68 91 69 90 / 40 60 50 70
Animas 68 95 71 91 / 50 60 50 60
Hachita 68 95 70 92 / 40 50 60 60
Antelope Wells 69 94 70 90 / 50 70 70 80
Cloverdale 67 90 67 85 / 40 60 60 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ414>416.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe potential this afternoon and evening with all hazards
potentially possible.
- Storm chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday with severe
possible.
- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; albeit a bit cooler.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
With temps continuing to slowly drop via the latest hourly obs,
have decided to end the Heat Advisory early. Still expect
portions of Graham county to see slowly dropping temps until
the precip west of there reaches this location in the next hour.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Mid level troughing continues to push towards the northern Plains
along with a deepening surface low across eastern Colorado.
Stratus continues to be persistent across the northeast portion
of the area which does bring some concerns for the Heat
Advisory for Norton and Red Willow counties in particular. Will
continue to leave in place as RAP does show the stratus breaking
up some in the afternoon; along with the moist air mass in
place will not take much diurnal heating for low to mid 100 heat
indices to occur.
Main focus is on thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening.
Warm front currently looks to be draped from roughly Chase county
Nebraska down through northern Rooks county in Kansas which is the
edge of the stratus deck. Continue to think this will continue to
slowly lift to the north and north east. CAMS, including WOFS, have
slowly been shifting westward towards the Highway 27 corridor for CI
to occur this afternoon along the axis of a surface trough. Storms
may struggle initially but should slowly intensify as they move into
the better moisture, will need to watch for landspout potential
along this boundary as well as cells develop. As these storms mature
large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat as
they move off towards the northeast. If a storm can become a
dominant supercell from the initial round of convection and
interact with the warm front a supercell tornado potential may
develop but is highly conditional on multiple factors coming
together. A 2nd round of convection looks to occur along the
surface trough moving west to east across the area. Scattered to
numerous storms looks to occur with this posing some continued
severe potential; CAMS have been continuously picking up on a
stronger cell with UH track roughly along the KS/NE border. If
this does occur and other cells don`t impact it much then a
conditional very large hail threat may occur given the 15Z RAP
environment.
Rainfall chances look to end around midnight MT across the area. RAP
indicates some additional moisture moving through the area
tonight which looks to provide another potential for stratus and
fog overnight; better surface moisture and more northeasterly
winds along the KS/CO border leads to believe that area will
have the relative better potential for at least patchy fog
development.
RAP keeps stratus lingering across eastern portions of the area for
the majority of the day tomorrow along with fairly high 700mb
moisture which makes me thinks clouds will play more of a role on
high temperatures for the day Tuesday so have lowered
temperatures down about 5 degrees across the area resulting in
highs in the 80s.
Another, conditional severe threat looks to be in place across
the area tomorrow afternoon. A boundary and some weak omega
looks to be in place from roughly Norton county down through
Greeley county; however RAP soundings show a mid level CAP in
place which would hinder storm development; also do have
concerns about how much instability will be in place especially
if the cloud cover does continue to hold. If a storm where to
break the CAP then an all hazards scenario would be on the
table.
Tuesday night additional 700-500mb mid level moisture looks to work
in from the south bringing additional chances for showers and storms
overnight mainly along and south of Interstate 70. With drier
air in place initially the low temperature may occur early on
in the evening/night before steadily rising as the increase in
moisture occurs.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Active pattern looks to continue to start the period as well with
another surface trough moving through the area. A dry line looks
to be set up across northern Colorado back towards the Front
Range which will be the main focus for initiation. Supercells
capable of very large hail and strong winds looks to be the
primary threat as storms develop. At this time, storms look to
eventually grow upscale into a potential MCS moving to the ESE
based on the current forecasted 700mb steering wind as wind
becomes the main concern. High temperatures are currently
forecasted in the mid 80s to low 90s across the area.
4th of July, another surface trough will move through the area
associated with a deepening low pressure system across the
northern Plains. At this time, not seeing any clear signs for
rainfall, but the main story for any fireworks may be breezy
winds around 30-40 mph across the area. Pattern recognition
also does support the potential for breezy to gusty winds as
well. A cooler, rain cooled air mass from the northern Plains
looks to be advected into the area with high temperatures in
the 80s for the holiday.
Late week and into the weekend, ridging looks to develop across the
western CONUS with a large surface high encompassing most of
the southern CONUS. This will open the area up to additional
rain chances with any disturbance that slides down the eastern
periphery of the ridge. Continued daily chances for showers and
storms looks to occur through at least early next week as
western ridge begins to slowly move to the east.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 419 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions for the forecast period. Some
VCTS is possible through 03z Tuesday, as well as 6sm BR
possible from 08z-14z Tuesday. Winds, southwest 10-15kts
through 03z, then shifting southeast. By 08z Tuesday, becoming
northerly 10-20kts.
For KMCK, mixed conditions are expected through the forecast
period. First from 00z-03z 6sm in TSRA w/ some hail potential.
VCTS overnight from 03z-12z. From 12z-20z, BKN005-015 ceilings,
then VFR by 20z. Winds, east-northeast 10-15kts then shifting
northerly around 10kts. By 15z Tuesday, northeast 10-15kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...99/Trigg
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
953 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler high pressure continues over the region through
Tuesday. As this high moves off the East Coast middle of the week,
temperatures will warm back up again Wednesday into Thursday. Expect
increasingly hot and humid conditions going into the weekend with
some scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially
in the mountains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 950 PM EDT Monday...No major changes were needed as the
forecast remains on track this evening. Upper cirrus are filtering
in across the western half of the forecast area, with some stratocu
noted along portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Lower dewpoints,
and thus drier air, continues filtering into the region from the
north this evening.
Otherwise,a 1028 mb sfc high will drift east from the Great Lakes
to the New England Coast through Tuesday. Dry NE`ly flow around this
high will continue to lower dewpoints across the forecast area,
while the 850 mb flow veers E`ly, then SE`ly through the period.
This dry air advection should preclude fog development overnight.
Enough moisture within that flow may keep some stratocu around,
especially over the southern half of the forecast area and near the
Blue Ridge Escarpment. Lows will be slightly below normal (despite
some overhead cloud cover), mainly in the 60s.
Tuesday looks like a quiet and pleasant day for early July, as
dewpoints dip into the 50s for most of the area, with highs ending
up around 5 degrees below climo. This will bring some much needed
relief from the heat, albeit brief, but we will take what we can
get!
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Monday: Synoptically, high pressure continues to
amplify over the south and sets the stage for many days of warming.
Height rises max out by Thursday and remain stout through the
period. Guidance from the GFS develops an extremely weak shortwave
to the north of the CWA on Thursday and attempts to bring a very
small amount of DPVA near the mountains. However, this is not
depicted in any other model and given the strong area of high
pressure, confidence for any shower development is very low.
Moisture, in at least the mid levels, looks to start returning
Wednesday night into Thursday as the anticyclonic flow advects
moisture from the Gulf. As for any fire concerns, these should start
to decrease through the period. Wednesday looks to have a well mixed
BL, but with less mid level dry air than Tuesday. RH values should
remain in the upper 40 to 50 percent range. Winds will also be
light. The main concern is drier vegetation, especially in the NC
Piedmont and NE GA zones. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach
the low 90s in the southern portion of the CWA. But, Thursday high
temps start ramping up as the high amplifies. The heat index could
also reach the low 100s as the influx of moisture returns to the
area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday: Summertime remains alive and well into the
extended. Thursday night the strong area of high pressure continues
to grow over the southeast, while beginning to be pinched off a bit.
Guidance from the GFS/EURO/Canadian all show a developing trough
across the upper CONUS that gently pushes the high eastward slightly
and turns flow aloft more SW by Saturday. This turning should
amplify moisture advection into the south, raising the risk for high
heat indices Friday and Saturday. Confidence in triple digit heat
index values is increasing, given the persistent height rises and
moisture return. Guidance has PWAT values topping the 2 inch mark,
setting up a very muggy day for Friday and Saturday. The areas of
concern are for areas south of I-85 and the eastern NC Piedmont.
Will continue to monitor. By Sunday, the trough to the north could
help heights fall a bit and cool the CWA down by a few degrees. This
is still too far out to pinpoint or have any confidence in given
variations from model guidance. Once moisture returns, there could
be an increase in more diurnal convection and shower chances,
especially over the mountains. But, at this point, QPF response is
minimal and again concentrated over the NC mtns. Low confidence in
precipitation making a dent in rainfall needs for the CWA over the
next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages...
1) BKN to OVC VFR Cloud Cover is Possible Tonight but Confidence is
Very Low
2) Low-End Wind Gusts are Possible Overnight into Tuesday Morning at
KAVL and the SC Upstate Terminals
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry through the 00Z TAF forecast
period thanks to high pressure filtering in from the north. Cloud
cover will be the trickiest part of the forecast as the 18Z HRRR
shows BKN to OVC skies developing late this evening into the
overnight hours. However, confidence on this is very low (due to
much drier filtering into the region from the north) so went with
FEW to SCT cloud cover for now (as drier air may limit cloud
coverage somewhat). Winds remain NW at KAVL as of 00Z but should
gradually turn SE later this evening, remaining SE through the end
of the period. Winds east of the mtns are mostly E/ENE as of 00Z but
should gradually turn more NE after midnight. Wind speeds will
remain elevated this evening into tonight, ranging from mostly 5-11
kts. Winds will increase around daybreak slightly, with low-end
gusts possible at KAVL and the SC Upstate Terminals. Only have gusts
mentioned at KAND for now. With winds not expected to decouple, fog
formation is not anticipated. Winds east of the mtns will remain NE
through Tuesday morning before turning E/ESE Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will gradually decrease in speed Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Cloud cover should generally be less during the daytime Tuesday but
may increase again Tuesday evening.
Outlook: Dry high pressure remains in place through Wednesday. A
return of more typical mid-summer diurnal convection is expected
starting on Thursday and will linger into the weekend.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/ARK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
749 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will
recur through Wednesday. A drier and much warmer pattern will set
up by the end of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Early evening update: A weak mid level wave passing through the
region in combination with some mid level instability has resulted
in scattered showers persisting through the evening over the
eastern third of WA and the Idaho Panhandle. Made some updates to
the forecast based on current radar trends. The NAM and HRRR
suggests some shower activity may persist beyond sunset into the
early overnight hours from the Coeur d`Alene area into the Central
Panhandle Mountains so the forecast reflects this as well. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over NE
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle will weaken after sunset with
the loss of daytime heating. Thunderstorms are not expected to
impact any of the TAF sites. VFR conditions will persist at the
TAF sites, with breezy west winds around the Wenatchee area with
gusts to around 30 kts this evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 80 52 82 54 87 / 10 0 0 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 53 77 52 77 52 83 / 20 0 10 10 0 0
Pullman 52 76 49 77 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 60 86 58 85 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 45 79 45 79 45 85 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 50 75 48 75 48 81 / 30 20 20 30 10 0
Kellogg 55 73 53 73 54 79 / 20 0 10 20 0 0
Moses Lake 54 86 55 88 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 58 82 57 86 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 54 85 55 85 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1256 PM MST Mon Jul 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday and gradually diminish during the rest of the week.
Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Daytime temperatures will trending hotter by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Cloud debris cleared out by the late morning and
towering cumulus clouds developed around 11 AM MST. The surface
temperatures warmed 2-5 degrees more than yesterday which brings
the environment to be more unstable and favorable conditions for
thunderstorms. A handful of storms have been developing in the
last hour around the region with storms producing 35 mph gusts and
rain amounts around 0.25 inches. Storms don`t seem very tall and
could struggle to punch up higher. Most of the storms will
generally produce lightning, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and
localized rainfall. The latest HRRR run shows this thunderstorm
trend to continue through the rest of the afternoon and
dissipating shortly after sunset.
Moisture will stick around for the next several days to bring
scattered thunderstorm chances for most of the region. The upper
level pattern will be transitioning with the high pressure moving
away to the east and new high pressure center forming along the
west coast. Ensemble models show the new high will position
itself over the Great Basin and it will kick out the atmospheric
moisture. This will reduce thunderstorm chances towards the last
half of the week and it will bring hotter temperatures back. There
is a 38% chance for Tucson to reach 110F on Friday, but there is
some uncertainty on the strength and placement of the ridge axis
over the area. Overall, dryer and hotter temperatures will be
returning by the weekend and into the new week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 9-12k ft AGL with cirrus shield at 20K ft AGL
through the forecast period. Scattered -TSRA through 02/02Z and
again returning after 02/18Z to the end of the forecast period.
Expect brief MVFR conds near storms. SFC winds 10 kts or less with
the occasional afternoon gusts, except stronger due to gusty
outflows from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for scattered thunderstorms and
showers for the first half of the week and then diminishing
towards the end of the week. Moisture will slowly erode away
towards the end of the week and bringing min relative humidities
down towards the 10-18% range for the lower elevations and 18-25%
range in the higher elevations. Dryer air will be moving into the
region along with hotter temperature by the end of the week and
into the new week. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds
will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the
occasional gust of 20-25 mph.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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