Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/28/24
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 PM AKDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Today looks like it is going to end up as one of the most impactful
weather days of the Summer. Hot and dry conditions will persist
across the Interior and North Slope with even some windy areas in
the northern Interior. Areas of dense smoke from fires burning is
reducing visibilities along portions of the Elliott, Steese, and
Richardson Highways. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring from
the Western Brooks Range to Fairbanks to the Alcan Border, with
strong thunderstorms continuing overnight on the North Slope.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are occurring from Central north to
Fort Yukon. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph will persist on the west
coast south of Nome bringing elevated water 1 to 2 feet above the
normal high tide line south of the Bering Strait through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Analysis and Model Discussion...
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft remains over the eastern
half of Alaska, & the center has shifted northward to be over the
eastern North Slope. The ridge has weakened slightly today with
temperatures remaining warm to downright hot in some areas. A
strong vertically stacked low will remain in the central Bering Sea.
A number of shortwaves are moving through the convergence zone
between the low and the ridge this afternoon bringing scattered
thunderstorms from the western North Slope SE to Tanana.
Another shortwave is rotating around the high center to provide
the forcing for scattered thunderstorms over the central and
eastern Interior south of the White Mountains. Isolated dry
thunderstorms are occurring from Central north to Fort Yukon.
Fortunately, LCLs are substantially lower with more influence from the
Gulf of Alaska tomorrow over the Upper Tanana Valley and storms
there and across the rest of the area should be wet. Perhaps the
most intriguing development in the forecast is the likelihood of
very strong thunderstorms on the North Slope this afternoon
through Friday afternoon. Models continue to indicate areas of
CAPE >1000 J/kg with Lifted Indices as low as -4. we have issued a
Special Weather Statement for this. This is all associated with
both shortwaves moving through the convergence zone and the
shortwave moving around the high to the east. Storms will likely
continue all night Thursday night into Friday and may reach the
coast. These storms may produce hail up to half an inch in
diameter and outflow winds as high as 40 mph.
On Friday, the focus of convection in the Interior shifts to the
Yukon Flats as a shortwave aloft from the south moves over that
area off the high center. Temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees
cooler than today except in the Yukon Flats, though temperatures
look to warm back up on Saturday. Convection on Saturday looks
to just be isolated over the eastern Interior but widely scattered
right along the Alcan Border and in the SE Brooks Range.
Models initialized very well with respect to observations aloft
and at the surface, however the HRRR smoke model continues to
struggle, still showing very dense smoke over the Fairbanks area
despite much of it being cleared out already Forecast models show
above average agreement aloft through Sunday morning and few
differences at the surface and in precipitation fields.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for hot, dry, and windy conditions
today across the northern Interior, and for lightning across the
Central and Eastern Interior. Sustained winds are around 10-15
mph in the Northern Interior, but thunderstorms will cause
erratic wind gusts. A ridge of high pressure in the Interior and
a trough of low pressure in the Bering Sea has created a boundary
from the NW Arctic to the SE Interior where strong, scattered
thunderstorms are happening this afternoon. Most of these
thunderstorms are wet, however widely scattered to isolated
dry thunderstorms are also happening from Central to Fort Yukon.
Today is expected to be one of the biggest thunderstorm days of the
summer across northern Alaska, once it is all said and done, with
some strong storms even happening from time to time on the North
Slope.
On Friday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for lightning for the
Yukon Flats and SE Brooks Range where we expect scattered wet
thunderstorms, though an isolated dry storm is possible.
Temperatures will cool only slightly and RHs will moderate.
On Saturday, the thunderstorm threat moves to the AlCan border
and remains in the Eastern Brooks Range. For now, widely scattered
wet thunderstorms are expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are beginning to rise as
warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ911-933.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-913-919-931>935-939-943-944-946.
Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ834.
Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ839-840-844-845.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-850-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1043 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers with isolated storms tonight into Friday morning. Storm
chances for Fri afternoon - evening. Conditional strong/severe
threat with a lot of uncertainty. Expect updates/refinement to these
concerns over the next 12-24 hours.
- Cooler, drier Sat night into Monday.
- More rounds of showers/storms Mon N-Tue and again next Thu-Fri
&&
.UPDATE...Tonight amd Friday Morning
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Adjusted the rain chances for tonight and Friday morning. Warm
air advection ahead of an approaching shortwave trough has
resulted in more shower coverage across the forecast area this
evening, so raised the rain chances up considerably for areas
east of the Mississippi River. These showers should become
scattered later this evening and early overnight and then become
more widespread for the remainder of the overnight and Friday
morning as a shortwave trough, over South Dakota, moves east
through the region. There may be even a few isolated storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
* SHOWERS/STORMS CHANCES TONIGHT/FRI - conditional strong/severe
storm risk Fri afternoon/evening
Broad area of low level warm air advection, along with the nose of
the low level jet/moisture transport and ripples of energy a loft,
helping to produce a broad area of showers with a few embedded
storms across SD, southwest MN into northwest IA early this
afternoon.
The lift/fuel will continue to slide eastward to across the local
area tonight, with an expansive area of rain reaching the
Mississippi River toward midnight (per latest CAMS models).
Instability is meager and elevated, but enough for at least low end
(10-20%) thunder chances. While there could be pockets of moderate
(perhaps heavy) rainfall, overall amounts tonight through Fri
morning trending mostly from 1/4 to 1/2" - generally from northwest
WI southwest into northeast IA. The rain will continue to ease off
to the east over the eastern 1/2 of the badger state for the
afternoon.
What happens westward of this rain shield is a tricker question to
answer. All the meso guidance points to a potentially deep (4kft)
stratus layer with the showers, that lingers well into the
afternoon. The GFS provides additional support for this. Clouds
would keep it cooler, reinforcing the low level inversion and
limiting the potential instability. Where the westward edge to the
low cloud deck hangs, and how quickly it shifts east aren`t clear.
CAPE pool (2k+ J/kg SCAPE per RAP in MN) progged to develop in the
clear slot to the west of the clouds during the day. Deeper shear
lies to its west, behind a cold front, although 0-3Km shear could be
enough to provide some storm organization. There will be various
forcing mechanisms that could kick off storms in the warm sector -
from a sfc cold front to bits of upper level energy/MCV, cloud-sun
thermogradients, left over outflows, etc. Not much clarity in how
this will play out. Could be some strong/severe risk where the
elements all come together, but hard to pin point where that
could/would be. Expect refinements to expectations over the next 12-
24 hours.
* DRIER, COOLER SAT NIGHT INTO MON
Cooler air set to drop in from Canada post the cold front Sat with
850 mb temps progged to drop from 16 C at 00z Sat to around 7 C by
18z Sun. A sfc high will be meandering across the region Sun while a
loft the shortwave ridge axis zips in Mon. Below normal temps should
result (5 to 10 degrees on the cool side) with mostly low 70s for
highs. Also looking at a break from the rain, at least for a couple
days.
* MON NIGHT/TUE: next round of showers, storms
Long range guidance in solid agreement with driving an upper level
shortwave trough from the PAC NW east to the northern plains
Mon/afternoon-eve and then across the upper mississippi river valley
Tue.
Broad area of low level warming and PWs around 2" will provide ample
fuel/lift for widespread rain chances ahead of the shortwave and its
attendant cold front. How much instability will be around to
increase the thunder threat will be dependent on timing - and there
are some differences (see next paragraph). Comes earlier - more
instability...later, not as much. However, the warm cloud depth (4k+
km per GFS) and the aforementioned juicy PWs will favor warm
cloud/heavy rain threat. The system looks to be transitory, helping
lower a flash flooding risk. However, depending on where the
heaviest rains fall, will work to keep river levels elevated, slower
to abate.
Some differences in the models with timing - the GEFS generally
trending a bit slower than the EC. While some of the EPS suite
suggest the related shower/storm threat could push in by Mon
afternoon, latest operational run sides with the GFS as does the
bulk of its (EPS) members. NBM chances a bit more aggressive/quicker
with onset. While slowing the system down looks like a solid trend,
will let the NBM detail the timing for now - given the system is
still several days out.
* NEXT THU/FRI: more rain chances
The progressive upper level flow currently favors driving another
shortwave trough across the northern CONUS, spinning over over the
local area in the Thu/Fri time frame. A lot of consensus in the EPS
suite of members while the GEFS has more variability. The projected
system would still have a juicy, summery airmass to work on -
highlighting widespread rain (potentially locally heavy) chances.
Too far out to fine tune any details but another period to keep an
eye on.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Active weather through this forecast period will make for a tough
forecast and changing aviation conditions. While VFR conditions
still linger, this will change as more showers move in from the west
in short term as a series of waves bring rounds of convection into
Friday night.
Will likely see ceilings lower into MVFR range as moisture transport
increases with low level jet overnight. Hard to tell if this will
mean more scattered shower activity or if we will get breaks. But
broad lift will certainly lead to stratus and as decaying storms
move in towards morning, could see IFR ceilings (60%) chance
overtake parts of the area Friday morning. Questions also arise on
how long this will linger and impact later storm development. These
details get even tougher past 18 hours but did introduce at least a
small period of thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon as moisture
axis and related instability climb ahead of boundary.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
While rivers continue to fall below flood stage, most of this
water is still on route to the Mississippi River. As a result,
the Mississippi River is expected to keep rising through the
next 3 to 5 days depending on location and routing of tributary
rivers. While official forecasts from the River Forecast Center
do take into consideration all of the water that has already
fallen and is on its way into the Mississippi River, it only
takes the next 24-48 hours of forecast precipitation.
The next chance of precipitation returns late tonight lasting
through Friday. While widespread amounts of 0.5" to 1.0" are
not expected to immediately or substantially affect ongoing
flooding concerns, an additional widespread 1" to 2" of rainfall
upstream will prolong residence of elevated river
levels. As a result, the Mississippi River levels may initially
slightly decrease before increasing again as the additional
rainfall flows downstream this weekend into next week.
Elevated rivers with ongoing minor to moderate flood stages
from Lake City through Guttenberg are expected to persist beyond
the next 7 to 10 days.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Boyne
DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Shea
HYDROLOGY...JAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
939 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight risk of severe storms across the northeast corner of
Colorado Friday afternoon. Large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph
are the primary threats.
- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rain beginning in the high
country midday, then spreading east during the afternoon. Small
hail is also possible.
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly across the high
country Saturday and Sunday; A few strong to severe storms
could spread into the lower elevations Sunday.
- Drier conditions possible by mid next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Dying showers over the Continental Divide helped to produce very
strong winds across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains this
evening. Winds in excess of 60 mph were recorded. Radar shows that
the wave of showers to the west of the Continental Divide has come
to an end and winds across the Denver metro are slowly beginning
to decrease as a result. Showers in Larimer County may continue to
create strong gusts up there through 1030 pm. An outflow boundary
has helped to create a couple thunderstorms in northern Lincoln
and southern Washington Counties. These storms should stay below
severe limits due to lack of instability but may create winds up
to 55 mph.
A weak cold front is still on track to arrive around sunrise
tomorrow morning. This may briefly bring cooler air on northeast
winds. However, the late June sun will be quick to warm
temperatures tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Convection later this evening across the eastern plains of
Colorado should be moving out of the area after 9 PM this evening.
The West Slope could see another round of showers and
thunderstorms later this evening, most likely between 7-10 PM,
that could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. The line of
showers/storms should weaken as they move southeast across the
Divide, resulting in only light rain for the adjacent plains
before midnight, but overall the chances of measurable precip are
between 10-25% east of the Divide. Skies should gradually clear
tonight and some cool air advection moves into northern Colorado
form the northwest, primarily well off the deck i.e. in the
700-500 mb layer. With some cooler air aloft and clearing skies,
lows should cool into the low 60s across the plains, even some
50s for the cooler valley spots and certainly 50s for the
foothills. The mountain valleys will be cooler than last night too
with lows in the 40s.
On Friday, flow aloft increases quite a bit as a fairly strong
summer short wave trough moves across northern Montana and North
Dakota, putting Colorado in zonal flow with 40 kts at 500 mb.
Thunderstorms will develop first across the high country,
especially the mountains of Grand and Jackson Counties where
MLCAPE values may approach 1,000 J/kg by midday. Friday afternoon
would not be a good time to go mountain climbing as storms should
be forming before noon across the northern mountains, including
RMNP. Storms will produce lightning, gusty winds to 40 mph, heavy
rain, and sub-severe hail. Storms will be moving quickly to the
east with that much flow aloft, so flooding threat should be very
low, though the burn scars will need to be monitored for training
storms. As the storms move east, they will encounter some dry low
level air, because of downsloping, and thus weaker instability
(MLCAPE <500 J/kg). The HRRR has Tds in the mid 40s Friday
afternoon, which other CAMS like the NAMnest have them around 50
degF. We don`t have a good sense on where the dewpoints will end
up but in general we have lower PoPs for the I-25 corridor south
of Fort Collins and eastward. Severe weather is not expected and
light rainfall amounts are possible through the early evening
hours. Further east and especially north along the Wyoming Border,
there should be more instability given proximity to the short
wave trough and slightly cooler air aloft. The moisture and
instability axis goes roughly from Greeley southeast to Yuma,
north along the WY/NE border, and east of that line all the way
to Nebraska. Combined with 0-6 km shear of 40 kts, a few storms
during the afternoon could be severe, especially if they occur
across the far northeast corner of Colorado. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the main threats, and this area overlaps
nicely with SPC`s slight risk area. High temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler than today, but temperatures should still top
out at 90 degrees across metro Denver and the plains to the east.
Just a tad cooler north within 80 miles of Wyoming, where upper
80s should be the highs. The mountain valleys and eastern
foothills should reach the 70s before storms roll through,
especially north.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
An upper level high pressure system will expand across the southern
US. This will allow several weak shortwaves to bring diurnal
thunderstorms for the high country and Palmer Divide this weekend.
Saturday morning, westerly flow decreases aloft and begins to shift
southwesterly. With the lack of upper level forcing, convective
should remain limited. Generally both Saturday and Sunday, slight
chances of thunderstorms and showers exist for the mountains,
foothills, and Palmer Divide. By the evening hours, isolated showers
or storms could cross into the urban corridor. For chances of severe
storms, weak lapse rates between 6-7 C/km and weak shear values near
10kts should lead to sub-severe storms Saturday. Sunday, MLCAPE
values between 800-1000 J/kg, 20-25 kt 0-3km shear, and lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km could lead to a a few isolated strong to severe
storms along the plains late afternoon. Diving deeper into Sunday
afternoon, models differ in timing of precipitation especially
due to the strength of the blocking high in the southeast. It
possible storms could become severe late evening near the Kansas
Colorado border. Either way, coverage could change and will
continue to monitor for any changes.
Widespread 700mb temperatures increase between 17-19C starting
Monday afternoon. Expect high temperatures from 93-99F for the urban
corridor and plains. Mountains and foothills reach above normal
temperatures as well between 60-79F. Another round of diurnal
thunderstorms are possible mainly west of the Divide. These storms
will decrease in coverage becoming isolated along the urban
corridor and plains. Ensembles favor drier conditions by Tuesday
through late next week while temperatures remain above normal
through the period. Marginal fire weather conditions could return
for parts of the foothills and mountains early next week given the
drying trend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 555 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Radar and satellite shows a wave of showers and storms currently
moving over the Continental Divide of Grand County. These will
likely produce a strong outflow boundary that will develop strong
westerly winds. Gusts could reach up to 45 knots. As the showers
and storms move east of the Divide, they will likely weaken as
they move to lower elevations. Some of these showers and storms
could move directly overhead at any of the three terminals
although there will be minimal impacts besides the wind. DEN has
the lowest chance of -TSRA in the observation so it was taken out
of the TEMPO.
Models have been more consistent with showing a weak cold
front/outflow boundary moving through around 10-12Z Friday
morning. NE winds were included in the 00Z TAFs as a result. There
is a low, but non-zero chance that stratus develops over DEN and
BJC in the morning.
During the afternoon Friday, a round of gusty thunderstorms will
be possible. At this time, it seems any thunderstorm is unlikely
to move directly over the terminals. However, there is a good
chance that an outflow boundary with strong winds will move across
all three terminals. Wind gusts up to 45 knots could occur.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM...Schlatter
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1022 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and clear night with some patchy valley fog is anticipated
tonight, before a beautiful Friday is expected with plenty of
sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Unsettled weather returns on
Saturday afternoon into Sunday, along with breezy south winds.
Some isolated heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out for Saturday.
Next week will see a warming trend as high temperatures return
to the 80s to start off July.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Thursday...Forecast is very much on track so
only made minor changes to bring it up to date with current obs.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A late September-like negatively tilted
H5 trough is swinging through the area, helping to spark some
widely scattered sprinkles or light showers across the
Adirondacks, with even some steadier showers out towards the Tug
Hills. No weather impacts are expected, but noted the increase
in cloud cover as unseasonably strong cold air advection
continues. SPC RAP mesoanalysis shows +11 to +13C 925mb
temperatures being advected into the region, which equates to
the 10th to 25th percentile of SPC sounding climatology for the
Albany, NY upper air site. So aside from making minor tweaks to
the PoPs (15-20 percent across northern NY) and sky cover
through sunset, forecast remains very much on track. See
previous discussion below.
Cold front is finally moved out of our area and with that some
weak lingering rain showers move out of Eastern VT. High
pressure is moving in this evening and will settle over the
region tomorrow. Tonight will see some chilly weather as
overnight lows will be in the 40s with higher elevations in the
30s. Some overnight fog in the favored valleys can`t be ruled
out as well, but will be short lived if it does materialize.
Friday looks be quiet day with plenty of sunshine and day time highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s,low humidity and light winds around the
region. Friday night will see the high pressure begin to retreat
ahead of the next system as overnight winds begin to pick up from
the south, mainly across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. New
York and Western Vt can expect showers to move into the area during
the predawn hours as well. Overnight lows will be 50s and 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 244 PM EDT Thursday...A 50 knot southwesterly low-level jet
will move directly overhead Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening, as our area is squeezed between high pressure to our east
and a low lifting to our north. With the resultant warm air
advection on southwesterly winds, a temperature inversion will
develop in the 850 to 950 mb layer, which will prevent the strongest
momentum air from mixing to the surface in lower elevations.
Nonetheless, expect a gusty day with south/southwest wind gusts 20
to 30 mph for most locations. Higher elevations (above 2500 ft) will
gust higher, potentially 45+ mph. The Champlain Valley will also see
stronger winds in the 25 to 35 mph range as flow is channeled
up the valley. Peak wind gusts will be observed Saturday
afternoon/early evening just before the onset of rain. Once
steady rain moves into the area, winds will diminish slightly as
the rain stabilizes the air. Latest thinking on the timing for
arrival of steadier precipitation will be Saturday afternoon for
northern NY, and late afternoon/early evening for VT. However,
some earlier scattered showers are possible before the arrival
of the steady precipitation. Given the low-level inversion,
instability will be marginal if any, and thus have kept mention
of thunderstorms out of the forecast for Saturday. However,
ingredients are favorable for some heavy rainfall overnight.
Precipitable water values climb to around 2.0 inches, which is
around 200% climatological normal. In addition, deep warm cloud
depths of over 12 kft will increase precipitation rates, though
lack of instability will temper heavy rainfall potential. At
this point, it appears system will be just progressive enough to
preclude any widespread training threat, though some isolated
areas may have multiple heavy rain showers move overhead and
thus may see some ponding of water in poor drainage areas.
Current Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC for Saturday has our
forecast area outlined in the Marginal Risk. Will be watching
things closely, but not expecting widespread issues at this
point. Storm total amounts for Saturday through Saturday night
will be in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 244 PM EDT Thursday...Steady rain will come to an end Sunday
morning, but showers will continue thanks to a series of fronts that
will move through during the day. As the fronts/troughs move
through, will see decreasing moisture and thus potential for any
moderate to heavy rain within showers will be lessening. However,
steepening low and mid-level lapse rates will result in some
marginal instability, though depth of moisture and instability will
be relatively shallow. Thinking we will see a few embedded
thunderstorms during the day within the rain showers, though limited
instability will temper severe potential.
Once the final cold front sweeps through late Sunday, will be in for
a drier start to the work week as expansive high pressure builds in
from the west. Highs in the 70s/low 80s with dewpoints generally in
the 50s will feel quite refreshing and should be a beautiful stretch
of weather overall. A gradual warming trend can be expected going
into midweek. The next chance for showers will be in the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected at all TAF
sites for the period. Winds become light and variable overnight
at 7 kt or less. Current thinking is that fog is unlikely
overnight tonight, even for KSLK which may see a brief period of
localized fog right before sunrise. Friday remains VFR with
mostly clear skies and variable winds at 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
Unseasonably strong winds are expected on Saturday when a Lake
Wind Advisory will be needed for Lake Champlain. South winds
may exceed 25 knots by daybreak and may be be above 30 knots on
the broad lake at times during the day. Rough waves could
develop quickly. Wave heights on the broad lake and inland sea
may build into the 3 to 5 feet range briefly Saturday.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Chai/Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Chai
MARINE...Kutikoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
901 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend. Afternoon
and evening rain and storm chances increase through the weekend
with noticeably higher moisture building into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms diminish this
evening.
- Muggy tonight with areas of low stratus and/or patchy fog
possible towards daybreak.
Radar this evening shows lingering showers an isolated
thunderstorm or two across the region. This activity will
continue to wane and/or move out of the FA during the next few
hours leading to a dry but balmy night. Skies are expected to
clear out from northwest to southeast though there may be areas
of low stratus and/or fog developing towards daybreak,
especially in areas that saw rain today. Lows tonight will be in
the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- The heat continues with a significant increase in humidity
levels and rainfall chances.
Upper level ridging will be gradually building over the region
Friday and Saturday as southerly flow continues advecting
moisture into the area. Couple of concerns through the short
term with the first being the continued heat which will be
sightly enhanced by the increasing moisture. Heat index values
will be between 100 and 105 each day which will be just below
criteria so do not expect any headlines however the increase in
moisture will become noticeable. The other concern will be
potential for afternoon thunderstorms each day. There will be
plenty of instability and with some dry air in the mid levels
DCAPE values Friday will be in excess of 700 J/Kg and 500 J/Kg
on Saturday. Thunderstorms which become strong and well
developed vertically will have the potential to produce strong
and gusty winds. With the moisture also creating additional
clouds high temperatures each day will be in the low to mid 90s
with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above normal temperatures persist with excessive potential on
Sunday.
- Slightly cooler temperatures possible to start off the work
week.
Change will be coming in the long term however Sunday will see a
potential for excessive heat and potential headlines. Moisture
on Sunday will reach a peak as a frontal boundary moves
southward toward the forecast area. This will work to trap
moisture across the area and when combined with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s thunderstorms will become
likely during the afternoon and evening. The heat index will be
the issue Sunday as values will push to 108 to 113 degrees which
will be well into heat advisory and possibly into the excessive
heat category (113 or higher for at least two hours or more).
Will continue to monitor as this remains several days out. With
the front crossing the area Sunday there will also be an upper
level trough crossing the region and when combined with the heat
there is potential for strong thunderstorms with the main threat
being strong and gusty winds. Behind the front slightly cooler
temperatures will move into the region with high temperatures
returning to near normal for Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures returning to the mid 90s to near 100 for Wednesday
and Thursday.
As for rainfall potential, with the front both approaching
Sunday, then stalling out across the southern areas into next
week, expect that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible through the long term. Rainfall will be highly
variable however all rainfall will be welcome as the dry
conditions are beginning to raise fire weather concerns and with
the coming holiday the potential for wildfires will be
increasing if little rainfall is received.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of some
scattered showers and storms this evening.
Some lingering convection is impacting CAE/CUB/OGB at the start
of the forecast period so have included a mention of thunder
with vsby restrictions through 02z when storms should be
diminishing with the loss of instability. Light winds in the
boundary layer tonight along with some rain in areas may provide
favorable conditions for some fog/stratus. HRRR and MOS guidance
suggesting this as well so included cig restrictions in stratus
and vsby restrictions in fog beginning around 07z-09z and
lasting until around 13z or so.
Improvements expected by 14z with winds picking up from the
southeast around 5 to 8 knots after 16z. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible on Friday but timing and
coverage remains uncertain so will not include in this forecast.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers-storms with
restrictions each afternoon Friday through Sunday as
additional moisture moves over the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
543 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across much
of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska this afternoon and
evening. A conditional threat for severe thunderstorms will
exist across extreme southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska,
with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards along
with the potential for an isolated tornado.
- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected
Friday as a cold front sweeps across the CWA. At this time,
the best chance for convection appears to be in the southern
Nebraska panhandle.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Latest GOES WV imagery shows an upper level shortwave moving into
central WY with the latest RAP analysis showing the lee trough
shifting eastwards towards the WY/NE border. Despite morning dew
points east of the I-25 corridor in the upper 50s and low 60s,
daytime mixing and westerly winds off the Laramie Range continue to
push upper 50 dew points farther east in the NE panhandle near the
CWA border with LBF. The placement of this low-level moisture
through this afternoon will be important to watch as the atmosphere
continues to destabilize as it will have significant impacts on the
instability profiles as up to 2000 J/kg of CAPE could be available,
but it appears more likely that storms will only be able to tap into
~500 J/kg across the NE panhandle.
Latest GOES Daytime Microphysics RGB has shown late morning clearing
across the southern NE panhandle and northeast CO with stable low-
level billow clouds across much of Platte/Goshen Co where upper
level clouds have limited daytime heating. Cu fields have begun
developing over the last 30-45 minutes across these areas of
clearing which may be an area of concern for stronger storms to
develop early this afternoon before the more favorable low-level
moisture mixes east. These storms could could produce large hail and
strong winds this afternoon before quickly moving east of the CWA
into central NE. Will need to continue to monitor for additional Cu
development farther north near the Pine Ridge as CAMs have been
initiating storms across a localized moisture pool before quickly
moving east as well. There is a short window for severe
thunderstorms today, potentially ending by 5 PM MDT, with lingering
showers and storms through the evening.
Looking farther west, much of south-central WY has begun to
destabilize as indicated with latest satellite imagery.
However, forecast soundings continue to suggest mid-level
capping could inhibit deeper convection before better lift
arrives from the west. Recent WOFS runs continues to show higher
probabilities (40-60%) of strong winds (gusts >58 mph) entering
southwest Carbon Co by mid-afternoon with the ongoing
convection in the Uintas as it travels east and eventually
increasing in coverage through the early evening near the Sierra
Madre and Snowy Ranges.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Another round of potentially severe storms will be possible Friday
afternoon. A progressive trough will swing down into Montana and
North Dakota on Friday, pushing a cold front down into the CWA.
Frontal passage appears to be later in the afternoon, but before
that, the incoming front will spark scattered convection. As the
front dives south, the CWA will be in the right entrance region of a
250 mb jet streak. This will put the CWA in a favorable location for
severe weather with ample lift. The environment will also be
favorable for severe weather, especially south of the North Platte
River Valley. Here, RAP soundings show the capping inversion eroding
by early afternoon and convection initiating shortly after. The
surface will be modestly moist as brief southerly flow into the
panhandle ahead of the front raises dewpoints into the low 50s.
MUCAPE values max out around 2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon. This
will lead to primarily a large hail threat as Hi-Res guidance
initially shows discrete cells. Effective shear values will also
be around 45 kts which could support more organized convection.
Strong winds are also possible as storms begin to cluster later
in the afternoon with DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. It is
worth mentioning the PWs will also be around an inch in the
southern panhandle, leading to heavy rain. Luckily, storms will
be quick moving, reducing the flash flooding risk. Hi-Res shows
storms wrapping up by about 7 PM.
Aside form severe storms, the incoming cold front will lead to a
blustery day across southeast Wyoming. The GFS shows strong westerly
700 mb winds ahead of the front, maxing out around 50 kts over
the North Laramie Range. MSLP gradients aren`t too impressive as
a surface ridge sits over much of the CWA. Even downward omegas
are a bit lack-luster, but 700 mb CAG-CPR height gradients are
elevated mid-day Friday. Even in-house high wind guidance is
picking up on elevated winds across the wind prones and much of
the Interstate 25 corridor. Could see gusts of 40 to 50 MPH in
these areas. Behind the front, winds will turn more northwesterly
and begin to ease late in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
long term forecast period. Upper-level troughing will slowly
move out of the area Friday night into early Saturday morning as
an upper- level ridge builds over the Intermountain West. With
the cold front moving across the region Friday, Saturday will be
much cooler as 700mb temperatures drop into the 6-8C range east
of the Laramie Range, but west of the Laramie Range looks to be
warmer as the upper- level ridge slowly moves closer to the
region. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid-70s to low-80s east
of the Laramie Range and mid- 70s to mid-80s west of the
Laramie Range. Despite the strengthening ridge overhead, some
500mb vorticity maxima will traverse underneath, resulting in
precipitation chances Saturday and most days throughout the long
term forecast.
The upper-level ridge will be at its maximum strength overhead on
Sunday, leading to rapidly warming 700mb temperatures into the 15-
17C range. Surface temperatures will increase into the upper-80s to
mid-90s east of the Laramie Range and upper-80s west, leading to a
very warm end to the weekend. A slightly cooler and more active
pattern returns for the work week as the upper-level ridge moves off
to the east and troughing pushes in. Disagreement begins to appear
in the long range models at this time. The GFS suggests zonal flow
moving in after the trough pushes through, while the ECMWF keeps
troughing overhead for Monday and Tuesday, with zonal flow arriving
Wednesday. Disagreement continues throughout the remaining long
term, but temperatures are likely to remain in the 80s and 90s, with
warmer temperatures arrive for the 4th of July.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
VFR expected at all terminals through the forecast period. Brief
wind gusts with VCTS farther than 10 miles away from terminals
may increase the chance for SE WY terminals to see wind gusts
greater than 25-35 knots this evening before tapering off
overnight. Wind gusts in the NE Panhandle should remain near
10-20 knots or less this evening before also tapering off. All
terminals will see a breezy Friday, as wind gusts of 30-40 knots
are expected for most areas on Friday afternoon.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MB
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
806 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A widespread, but primarily marginal, severe threat exists on
Thursday.
- Friday has temperatures forecasted in excess of 100F across
our southeast zones.
- The majority of the forecast period has ensembles showing a
MCS signal during the evenings although plenty of uncertainty
around them still is present.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Radar and infrared satellite imagery at 8 pm outlined a
marginally severe MCS (mesoscale convective system) southwest of
DDC. As of 8 pm, peak wind reports have been below severe
limits (roughly 55 mph), along with frequent dangerous
lightning, and very heavy rainfall. Clouds tops remain
consistently cold near -80C, with a top of -84C south of Hugoton
as of this writing. MCS maintenance parameters are marginal at
best ahead of this complex, but with plenty of moisture and a
low level jet in place, the MCS is expected to maintain its
integrity as it tracks along the KS/OK border over the next few
hours, especially immediately adjacent to Oklahoma. Marginally
severe wind gusts to near 60 mph are the primary risk. Increased
pops to the likely/definite category over the next few hours to
accomodate this complex. Elevated south winds and convective
debris will work against radiational cooling through Friday
morning, keeping most locations in the 70s. Winds will trend
SWly around sunrise, and the additional downslope component and
several degrees of warming at 850 mb will push temperatures to
near 100 Friday afternoon. Pressure gradients and winds will
collapse by afternoon, and the light winds will add to the
impacts of dangerous heat indices across southeast zones Friday
afternoon. Heat advisory remains in place, with the heat index
approaching 110 degrees across/near Barber county by 5 pm.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
An upper-level ridge currently dominates over Kansas and will
continue through the near term. A short wave trough in the mid-
levels will help provide some dynamic support of convection
expected this afternoon. Both the NAM and the RAP show 500mb
CVA over our western zones in the afternoon and while try and
assist convection to overcome the CAP and lack of upper-level
mass transport. Regarding the CAP, recent CAM runs have
significantly decreased CIN values ahead of the forecasted
convection. As last nights MCS did not extend in coverage and
intensity, the atmosphere easily recovered and weakened the
forecasted CAP. NAMNST forecast soundings show a myriad of
severe weather ingredients including: CAPE values of 2000 J/kg,
deep layer shear of 30+ knots, low level lapse rates of 9.3
C/km, DCAPE of over 1000 J/kg, and PWATs of over 1.8 inches.
The main question regarding severe weather Thursday will be storm
mode. CAMs are in agreement that convection will initiate
discretely around 21Z, and disagree for how long. The longer
storms can remain discrete, the greater the overall severe risk
(especially the hail threat). Otherwise all risk categories are
in effect over SW Kansas including a large 2% tornado risk area.
2 inch hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threat
however. After convection congeals, the severe threat remains
present, but decreases significantly.
Friday morning after lingering precipitation exits the forecast
area, a combination of WAA and diurnal processes will quickly
warm up. With the SE corner of the forecast area expected by
ensembles to reach greater than 104F. As a result, a heat
advisory has been issues for the southeastern six counties from
noon until 8 PM CDT. Later on Friday, CAMs have continued to
show a MCS signal come out of Colorado around 23Z. However, the
CAMs` trends continue to push the MCS farther north, further
decreasing the chance for widespread precipitation potential.
Ensembles place our northern zones at over 50% chance for
accumulating precipitation, but if previous trends continue this
will also decrease.
Saturday, ensembles has a reprieve of precipitation across the
entire forecast area with no points having greater than a 25%
chance for accumulating rainfall. Sunday however, another MCS
is expected to track across our southern area although
uncertainty still remains on the exact timing and location.
The remainder of the forecast period appears to continue the MCS
abundant pattern with some signal every night. The highest
probabilities and means from the ensembles place it in northwestern
Kansas similar to the Friday signal. Wednesday`s MCS appears to be
farther south and more widespread across ensembles, but confidence
that far out is low.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
VFR will continue through this TAF period, outside of the
influence of any showers and thunderstorms. Radar at 2145z
showed isolated thunderstorms north of GCK, but models are in
disagreement on how to evolve this activity, as the shortwave
crosses SW KS through 12z Fri. Some models such as 12z ARW and
18z NAM are quite active, suggesting convective TEMPO groups
will be needed tonight, especially at GCK/DDC. Other models are
dry, typical of weakly forced summer regimes. Opted to keep any
mention of VCTS/CB/TS out of this set of TAFs until more
evidence supporting their inclusion is obtained. Amendments will
occur if radar trends support them. Strong south winds gusting
30-35 kts currently, will decrease somewhat and back SEly, still
gusting 25-30 kts through 09z Fri. Wind direction will veer
SWly after 12z Fri.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ066-080-081-
088>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...KJohnson
AVIATION...Turner
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CJM
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...AP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
654 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
-On and off showers, with a few non-severe storms possible this
evening into Friday
-Severe weather possible Friday afternoon to evening, but remaining
conditional due to potential lingering clouds
- Quiet and pleasant weekend with dry conditions, especially Sunday
with cooler and less humid weather
- Signal remains for more active pattern with multiple chances
for on and off showers and storms next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows mid-level clouds streaming
eastward over Iowa, with mostly cloudy skies across much of the
area. Radar returns have overall increased across much of western
and northern Iowa throughout the day, though surface observations
indicate very little if any rainfall associated with this activity
into Iowa, thanks to low level dry air that has been stubborn to
depart. Model guidance depicts increasing southwesterly flow and
moisture return to the region into the evening with a strengthening
low level jet ahead of the circulating low pressure system slowly
entering into the Dakotas, which is expected to increase rain
chances as the front passes through into Friday. Further analysis of
model soundings over the region this evening into Friday shows CAPE
values generally under 1000 J/kg, along with limited shear and mid-
level lapse rates. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, though
largely expecting storms to remain below severe limits this evening
into Friday. Uncertainty remains on the overall coverage of this
activity, as the CAMS show mainly scattered activity along a line
pushing eastward across the state, though models such as the Euro
and NAM have more widespread coverage of showers and storms.
Regardless, some heavy showers are possible with rainfall amounts
generally under an inch expected.
Lingering shower activity is expected throughout the morning Friday,
with non-severe storms possible as the front continues to track
eastward. With the pressure gradient tightening, winds out of the
south/southwest are expected to increase, turning breezy by late
morning through the afternoon with gusts up to 30-35 mph, especially
over the northern portions of the state. The big question remains in
how much cloud cover will remain through the day. Models such as the
NAM and GFS are trending with more clouds throughout the day, though
the HRRR is more optimistic on cloud cover diminishing later into
the afternoon after the initial wave of showers and storms push
through the state. If clearing does occur later in the day, then the
chance for showers and storms will be higher. Overall, guidance per
model soundings show more appreciable CAPE values in the 2000-3000
J/kg range, along with 35-40 knots of shear and mid-level lapse
rates around 7-7.5 C/km, which would be favorable for strong to
severe storms later on Friday afternoon to evening. Damaging winds
and large hail would be possible if conditions do become favorable,
along with the potential for a tornado or two. Will be closely
monitoring for any changes, which will be most important tonight
into Friday in terms of how cloud cover plays out. On the side of
heavy rain potential, conditions are still on the more favorable end
with PWATS around 2 inches and deep warm cloud depths overhead, as
surface dewpoints increase into the low 70s. With the better
potential further south into Missouri however, not anticipating any
major impacts at this time, with values generally around an inch or
less expected, especially south. Will continue to keep a close eye,
especially given the remaining river impacts over northern Iowa.
As the cold front departs the state into Saturday, drying conditions
with high pressure sliding into the Midwest region will lead to dry
and quiet weather through the weekend. Highs are generally expected
in the upper 70s to 80s Saturday, with cooler conditions Sunday in
the 70s. The signal per long term guidance remains as more active
with a series of waves within the larger scale flow passing through
the region, and low level flow opens up more consistently from the
south, bringing in warm and more humid conditions back into the
region. This looks to result in on and off chances for showers and
storms throughout much of the next week, though specific details on
exact impacts are limited and will be better defined as more
information becomes available. Temperatures gradually warm back into
the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and through the next few days as
well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
VFR conditions prevail across much of the state early this
evening, but showers are ongoing in parts of the north and
west/southwest. Overall trends continue to suggest rain shower
activity will increase this evening into Friday morning moving
west to east with time. However, confidence in how widespread
this activity is and exact timing is lower, making specific
details in the TAFs more challenging. Have attempted to provide
some overarching timing with the first round here tonight into
Friday morning, with a secondary round also possible Friday
afternoon into evening. With confidence in timing and exact
impacts to TAF sites low, have opted to keep out any thunder
mentions at this time, but storms could occur at times,
especially on Friday. Heavier showers may also occur at times on
Friday leading to reduced visibilities, but overall flight
conditions look to become MVFR in the north as CIGs decrease
through the morning hours, with low VFR remaining across the
south at this time. Winds out of the south will also be on the
increase Friday with gusts (outside of storms) of 20-30 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Major to record flooding continues on the West Fork of the Des
Moines River early this morning. It looks like both Estherville
and Emmetsburg have reached their final crest and while they may
remain there for a bit, should start to see a slow fall in the
next day or two. Humboldt and Fort Dodge are cresting now or
will be later today. The remainder of the rivers in northern
Iowa, including the East Fork Des Moines, Cedar, Winnebago,
Shell Rock, and Iowa Rivers are all in recession. Both Dakota
City and Shell Rock are forecast to fall below flood stage
within the next 12 hours or so based on current forecasts. The
only rise is on the mainstem Des Moines at Stratford as the
water works its way down towards Saylorville Reservoir, which
should reach its peak around 875 feet around the Fourth of July
and remain there for a period of time.
The next chance for rainfall will be later today through Friday
night. The flash flood risk in this time period is less likely
given lower rainfall amounts as well as lower areal coverage in
higher amounts, which may top out around 2 to 3 inches in a few
locations for the event. As for possible infiltration, northern
Iowa north of Highway 20 has shown a slight improvement with
the roughly top 4 inches of relative soil moisture (RSM) showing
a 2 to 4% drying compared to this time yesterday. The 4 to 16
inch layer RSM continues to show 60% or higher values over this
same area so while the top layer has shown a bit of drying,
these areas will continue to be prone to saturation and more
rapid runoff response. Elsewhere in Iowa, the rainfall from
Tuesday has lowered capacity in southern Iowa with streaks of
60% RSM. Thus, there may be isolated areas that may see more
runoff response. However, in this part of the state USGS
streamflows are generally at the normal percentile at both the
daily and 7 day average. While there is more rainfall forecasted
early next week, there should be some time for soil moisture and
infiltration capacity recovery, but will need to monitor QPF
amounts as the event approaches given the favorable heavy
rainfall parameters.
On the river flooding, the plan is to use just 24 hours of QPF
today. Thus, the first part of this late week rain event
through 7am Friday will make it into today`s river forecasts.
For areas that are not currently experiencing or forecast to go
above flood stage, namely central and southern Iowa, the
experimental Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS)
based on GEFS 10 day QPF continues to paint within bank rises at
the 30% chance exceedance level. The 10th exceedance level
would bring a few locations on the Iowa, Raccoon, and Des Moines
into at least flood stage. However, this would require the
higher end rainfall. For northern Iowa and rivers with above
action stage conditions (Des Moines above Saylorville, Cedar,
Shell Rock, and Winnebago), the rainfall Thursday night into
Friday as well as early next week may slow the recession and
prolong above action stage flows.
Make sure to stay up to date on the latest forecasts and river
information, avoid flooded areas and rivers, and never drive around
barricades or through flooded areas.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...KCM
HYDROLOGY...Ansorge
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
545 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue today, the weekend,
and into next week. Localized flash flooding could occur with
stronger storms. Lowland high temperatures will remain hot in the
100s for the foreseeable future. Wind speeds will remain light
with the exception of gusty winds from thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Currently, cloud cover is present in the southern NM and TX
region. There are thunderstorms present in the Sacramento
mountains and the Gila region. Due to the presence of cloud cover
and cooler temperatures, the lowlands will see less activity than
yesterday. However, PWATs are still very high at 1.2 to 1.5
inches across the region and dewpoints are high in the 60s. This
abundance of moisture and a breakdown in the ridge over the region
means that thunderstorms can still form across the CWA, especially
in higher elevations where orographic lifting can take place.
Cold pooling will easily provide lift for heavy rain producing
storms to form in the lowlands where lifting mechanisms are less
prevalent. MLCAPE is spotty and mostly concentrated in the
Bootheel region of NM with values of 300-700 J/kg. Shear is very
low at less than 15kts across the region, so chances for severe
weather will be minimal. The HRRR indicates that western NM will
have the greatest chance of storms. Stronger thunderstorms can
produce heavy rain that can lead to localized flash flooding.
These storms can also produce gusty winds. Due to high pressure in
the region, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 100s in
the lowlands until the weekend, when they cool to the low 100s.
The 75th percentile was used for high temperatures due to it being
more accurate as of late. Friday will be the hottest day with El
Paso expected to be in the upper 100s. Friday will be a less
active day weather-wise, but isolated thunderstorms can not be
ruled out, especially in higher elevations. The weekend will be
similar, but with a better chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be
light and variable today and into the weekend as expected of a
high pressure region.
The ridge will shift eastward over the weekend, finally settling
in over the southern US early next week. This will allow for a
typical monsoonal pattern allowing moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to flow into the region. PWATs will remain high all next
week at 1.2 to 1.5 inches across the region and dewpoints will be
in the 50s. Continued hot temperatures will provide sufficient
lift for a chance of thunderstorms all next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
On-going convection has scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the area. The thunderstorms are currently having some
impacts on both KDMN and KTCS, with lower ceilings (but still well
above MVFR values) and some gusty winds. It will be difficult to
get thunderstorm activity over KLRU or KELP, but strong outflow
could be possible later this evening. By midnight most of the
convection will have died off. We should have either unlimited
ceilings or high ceilings of BKN250. Winds for the next few hours
will be a bit of a mess with all the outflow boundaries, but the
winds should become more out of the west at 5 to 15 knots later
tonight. For Friday there will be a chance for thunderstorms,
mainly in area mountains, but a few storms could pop up in the
lowlands. Like today, any storms Friday afternoon could produce
some strong outflow boundaries. After a one day break from the
heat, higher temperatures will return for Friday, so take
precautions if you have to work outside.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Very low fire weather concerns for this forecast period. Min RH
values for the next couple of days will be between 15 to 20% for
the lowlands and 25 to 30% for higher elevations. Wind speeds will
be light and variable at 5 to 10 mph. The presence of a ridge over
the region is allowing for very hot temperatures in the mid to
upper 100s for the lowlands. Due to an abundance in the region,
there will be a chance for thunderstorms, especially in higher
elevations where orographic lifting can take place. These storms
can produce heavy rain that can lead to flash flooding as well as
gusty winds. This pattern will remain unchanged through the
weekend and into next week. Ventilation rates will be good for
this evening and Friday, transitioning to very good to excellent
for the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 82 106 84 108 / 50 30 20 40
Sierra Blanca 73 99 74 101 / 40 40 40 40
Las Cruces 75 103 79 106 / 60 20 20 40
Alamogordo 71 101 74 103 / 40 20 10 30
Cloudcroft 55 78 58 79 / 50 40 20 50
Truth or Consequences 74 100 78 101 / 50 20 10 30
Silver City 66 94 69 96 / 50 20 10 60
Deming 72 103 76 105 / 60 20 20 40
Lordsburg 71 100 73 102 / 40 20 10 50
West El Paso Metro 79 103 81 105 / 60 20 20 40
Dell City 75 102 76 103 / 30 30 20 30
Fort Hancock 76 105 77 107 / 50 30 40 40
Loma Linda 71 96 74 99 / 50 30 20 40
Fabens 77 105 79 107 / 50 30 30 40
Santa Teresa 76 102 76 104 / 60 20 20 40
White Sands HQ 79 100 83 103 / 50 30 20 40
Jornada Range 71 101 75 104 / 50 20 20 40
Hatch 71 103 76 106 / 50 20 20 40
Columbus 76 103 79 104 / 70 20 20 40
Orogrande 74 100 76 103 / 50 20 20 40
Mayhill 61 90 63 90 / 40 50 10 60
Mescalero 59 88 63 89 / 50 30 10 50
Timberon 58 86 61 88 / 40 40 10 50
Winston 60 90 64 92 / 50 30 10 60
Hillsboro 69 96 75 99 / 60 30 20 60
Spaceport 68 99 71 101 / 50 20 10 40
Lake Roberts 61 92 64 93 / 50 30 10 60
Hurley 66 97 70 99 / 50 20 10 40
Cliff 66 103 68 105 / 30 20 10 40
Mule Creek 68 95 70 97 / 20 20 10 40
Faywood 68 95 72 97 / 60 20 20 50
Animas 70 100 72 102 / 50 30 20 50
Hachita 71 100 73 102 / 60 30 20 50
Antelope Wells 69 98 71 101 / 60 50 40 60
Cloverdale 66 93 67 96 / 60 40 30 50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-
423-424.
NM...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-
410-411.
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1031 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for
all of eastern North Dakota tonight.
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across
the region Friday afternoon and evening.
- There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms again Monday
across the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Showers and Thunderstorms continue to push across the area this
evening. The severe risk continues for the Devils Lake Basin,
but appears to be losing steam. Forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Severe weather is starting to our west in western and central
North Dakota. Currently in our area, we have majority showers
and some embedded thunderstorms moving through. The severe
weather should become elevated into this evening as it
approaches our area, but the Devils Lake Basin is under a level
1 out of 5 (marginal) risk for severe storms so not out of the
question we could have a few. Forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
...Synopsis...
Ridging is propagating eastward, with a mid/upper low
propagating eastward from the Pacific NW. Ensemble guidance in
good agreement depicting the upper level pattern to remain
progressive through the period. Ensemble members do show
variances with timing, track, strength of each passing mid level
trough and associated surface low/front evolution which leads
to variances in timing, location, and magnitude of any severe
impacts or heavy rain. Temperatures vary with passing shortwave
ridges/troughs with a tendency for below average temperatures at
time (notably this weekend behind the trough on Friday). Each
passing trough carries at least some potential for severe
thunderstorms, with details tied to the mentioned uncertainties.
...Severe threat overnight...
Mid-level warm air advection currently propagating into the
region leading to scattered showers. Instability is very weak,
so not much for thunder at this point, although do anticipate at
least isolated thunder at times. This activity will continue to
move northeast into the evening hours.
The more widespread coverage overnight will be associated with
stronger 850mb WAA associated with a stronger low level jet.
With this stronger forcing, SPC indicates the marginal risk for
severe severe storms (at least for eastern North Dakota),
although instability quickly wanes after sunset - and forcing
arrives after sunset. Given lack of instability most convection
will be weaker, although strength of forcing and strong deep
layer shear will lead to a stronger storm or two. Primary
threats remain hail, and wind where momentum transfer of heavy
rain/elevated downdrafts can mix down higher gusts in the higher
low level shear environment.
Will also need to monitor for stronger wake low winds as the
convection tonight propagates eastward - the latest runs of the
HRRR indicate this potential. At this point predictability is
very low - especially considering the weaker nature of the
anticipated convection.
...Severe threat Friday afternoon/evening...
Deformation zone is favored by latest trends to shift north through
Friday morning towards the US/Canada border, lingering into the
afternoon. A mid level dry slot is shown to allow for clearing
across much of the region. Latest guidance in good agreement
indicating the main axis of instability will be east of the CWA
by mid-afternoon. However, there is a signal for MLCAPE up to
1000 J/KG along and just ahead of an inverted trough which
connects back toward the mid-upper low which will still be
approaching from the west. This will tend to be in a post
frontal shear environment (backing low levels) but deep layer
shear remains high (top heavy shear profiles). Due to the
strong effective shear we could see low topped supercell
development. If clearing and enough instability builds along and
ahead of the inverted trough, low level vorticity along with
stronger low level lapse rates/CAPE and slower propagating
frontal boundary could lead to a conditional tornado threat.
Given lower freezing levels, hail up to 1.5 or so inches also
would be a threat.
...Severe threat Monday....
Another mid/upper wave follows a very similar track and evolution
as the system Friday, with a period of widespread showers or
embedded thunderstorms. There is a signal for a deeper warm sector
building into our region within most clusters, and higher probs for
SB CAPE to exceed 1000 J/KG during the peak heating/diurnally
favored period of the afternoon/evening. CSU GEFS based machine
learning (15-30% severe probs) are supported by 100% chance for
greater than 55 NBM CWASP and 50-60% probability for NBM CWASP
values exceeding 65. That aligns with a threat for isolated to
scattered severe convection. This is still farther out, so
details/impacts are still inherently uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
MVFR to IFR and eventually LIFR conditions expected through
tonight into Friday evening. With the TSRA moving through,
ceilings are forecasted to drop to around 005 into Friday
morning and remain there for the TAF period. Winds will lessen
to around 10 knots, but before then they will be gusting up to
20 - 25kts and sustained around 15 kts. Winds will shift into
Saturday morning, but that is outside the current TAF period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...AH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
655 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rivers across the area have crested or are presently at crest.
Expect rivers to slowly trend downward.
- Shower and storm chances remain in the forecast through Friday
night. Strong to severe storms are possible later this evening
and again Friday afternoon. More uncertainty exists with
Friday`s threat.
- Although widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, isolated
pockets of an inch or more are possible with thunderstorms
tonight - with a worst case scenario of up to a localized 2".
Otherwise, generally expect new rainfall amounts of 0.25" to
0.50" through Friday night.
- Active pattern brings rain chances back to the region early
next week. Locally heavy rainfall could be a threat, although
confidence is low due to location/timing issues.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
A broad area of scattered showers continues across much of the CWA
this afternoon - this in association with midlevel warm air
advection in conjunction with a shortwave tracking over the region.
Rainfall amounts have generally been on the lighter side through the
day, though heavier showers over the northern James River Valley
have produced nearly an inch of rain at Huron. Latest CAMS have this
precipitation dwindling from west to east through the remainder of
the day as the upper level forcing drifts eastward.
Attention then turns to the potential for a few stronger to severe
storms for tonight. A surface low presently over eastern MT/WY will
slide into western SD by this evening, then into central SD during
the overnight hours. In the presence of MUCAPE around 2000 J/KG,
bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts, and midlevel lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/KM
over that area, strong to severe storms are expected to develop
through western/central SD by early this evening. These storms will
then push to the east through the early night time hours. As these
storms move into our area, they will become increasingly elevated
with soundings suggesting a deep cap in place over our area. This
would suggest that storms will weaken as they continue to move east -
eventually moving into a much more stable atmosphere east of the
James River. Even so, cannot completely rule out isolated severe
storms over south central SD and the James River Valley, generally
prior to midnight. With model PWATs running between 1.5" to 2",
there will be the potential for heavy rain with any stronger or more
persistent storms. A couple models - most notably the HRRR and NAM12
suggest a potential for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from 00Z to 12Z on
Friday - although these models are not in agreement with the
placement of heaviest rainfall. In addition, other hi-res models do
not indicate this much rain overnight, and the 12Z HREF would
suggest only a 30-40% probability of receiving 1.5 inches of
rainfall overnight - focused over the northern James River Valley.
That being said, it will bear watching overnight. Southerly winds
will remain fairly breezy overnight with the approach of the
aforementioned frontal trough. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
The surface low/frontal boundary pushes across the CWA on Friday,
exiting the area by late afternoon/early evening. Latest CAMs
suggest there could be shower and thunderstorm - generally east of
Interstate 29 in the mid to late afternoon. There will be another
potential for strong to severe storms over that area in the
afternoon with progged MUCAPE around 2000 J/KG - though midlevel
lapse rates will remain in the 6 to 7 C/KM range, and bulk shear
will only be moderate -running around 35 kts. In addition,
uncertainty remains how any earlier showers will impact the
potential for afternoon convection. The potential for heavy rain
looks to be lower on Friday, though higher amounts would of course
be possible in a heavier storm. It will be a warm day with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few light showers may linger even into
Friday night, though rainfall amounts would be very light.
With the passage of this system, a nice weekend is in store as a
surface ridge builds into the region through the period. With that
will come below normal temperatures with highs only in the 70s and
lows in the 50s.
Rainfall chances return to the area by the beginning of next week as
an upper level trough swings through the Northern Plains and
moisture returns on a southerly low level flow for Monday into
Tuesday. Cannot rule out the potential for heavy rain for portions
of the area by Monday with model PWAT values of 1.5" to 2"+. With
that could also come the potential for severe weather as outlined by
SPC Day 5 convective outlook. There looks to be a warming trend
through the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will impact the area through
this TAF period, though with low confidence in exact timing and
location of greater thunderstorm chances, will have only limited
mention of TS in the TAFs. Aside from ongoing activity near KFSD
at the start of this period, the most favored area for storms
appears to be near KHON during this overnight.
Aside from an uncertain thunder threat, will see a potential
for MVFR ceilings Friday morning ahead of a cool front pushing
east. This front may trigger additional showers/storms by Friday
afternoon, mainly east of the I-29 corridor. Front will also
bring a wind shift from south-southeast to northwest.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to cross parts
of the local area this evening and through the overnight hours.
Hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to near 60
mph are both possible.
- Temperatures will rebound to near climo on Friday, with high
temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 80s.
- Pleasant temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in
the 70s and 80s, along with mainly night-time thunderstorm
chances each day.
- Warmer with continued storm chances next week, with highs in
the 80s and 90s and mainly small chances for thunderstorms
(20-40%) each day. Heat Index values could climb near or over
100 in spots both Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
A few breaks in the could cover can be seen making their way
across the local area this afternoon. This clearing should
allow for additional instability to build across the area, with
models indicating 2-3K J/KG of CAPE will be present by late
afternoon. As some isolated convection develops to our west and
encounters this unstable airmass, could see a line of strong to
severe storms develop and propagate across the local area.
Already seeing some CU/TSRA development near the panhandle on
Satellite, which is in line with where storms are expected to
develop in model data. If the last couple runs of the HRRR are
correct, should see some storms reach western Dawson county
around 00Z...tracking eastward roughly along the I-80 corridor.
If this does come to fruition, given the instability (2-3K
J/KG), elevated nature of the storms (5Kft cloud bases) and
modest deep layer shear (0-6KM around 45 KTS), some of these
storms could become severe, with large hail (1.25"+) and
damaging wind gusts (60mph+) being the main threats, with the
strength of storms expected to diminish during the late evening
hours.
Dry weather is then expected for the daytime hours on Friday
behind this evenings disturbance, with warming temperatures (in
part due to increased sunshine) expected across the area. A cold
front will cross the area during the daytime hours Friday, but
this should be more of a wind shift, with the "cooler" air
holding off until the weekend. For the late afternoon and
evening hours, models are keying in on another upper level
disturbance moving off the high plains, which will bring another
chance for some severe storms to the local area. Timing will
likely be similar to this afternoons activity, with large hail
and damaging wind gusts being the main concerns. There will be
an outside chance for a Tornado as well tomorrow afternoon (2%)
as LCL heights will be a bit lower, but given that the low
level shear is weak, did not include a mention of a possible
tornado in the HWO.
For the weekend, expect pleasant temperatures each day, with
Highs only climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the
region. There will also be small chances for thunderstorms,
mainly during the evening and overnight hours, but these chances
will be minimal and most areas seeing little to no
precipitation.
With the upper level ridge returning to the local area late
Sunday and amplifying on Monday, expect temperatures to soar
back above normal to start next week, and with dewpoints
expected to be in the lower 70s, Heat Index values could reach
the 100 to 105 degree range across parts of the area -
especially across portions of north central Kansas. This ridge
will shift east into the Great Lakes Region by Tuesday
afternoon, with additional disturbances in the upper level flow
expected to bring off and on small chances of thunderstorms to
the local area through the end of the week. While there are
chances for precip across at least parts of the local area in
each six hour forecast block next week, when all is said and
done, there will be plenty of dry periods and some areas will
likely not see much in the way of beneficial precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Gusty southeast to south winds will decrease a little and turn
towards the southwest by 12z. Winds will then turn towards the
northwest to north by 18z. Wind shear is expected at both
terminals beginning around 03z and continuing until around
06z/07z. Low ceilings are likely beginning around 10z and
possibly continuing until around 17z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Schuldt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
757 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the area
late Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are
possible. At this time, brief/localized instances of damaging
wind appear to be the primary hazard.
- Daily potential for afternoon/evening storms this weekend into
next week.
- Heat index values in the low triple digits Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
As of 0135 UTC (735 pm MDT).. radar/observational trends and
simulated reflectivity forecasts via the 00Z HRRR suggest
little, if any, potential for convective development through
the duration of the evening. High based convection presently
developing along/east of the I-25 corridor (mainly south of
Denver) will track east toward the CO-KS border late this
evening. While brief, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph cannot
be ruled out with any high-based showers/virga (by virtue of
moderate to strong DCAPE, ~1200-1800 J/kg).. substantial
intensification of said activity is presently not anticipated.
With the above in mind, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
(previously in effect until 03Z UTC) has been canceled.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly
cloudy to mostly cloudy mix. Scattered showers are occurring around
the area. Breaks in the cloud cover through the day has allowed for
temps as of 200 PM MDT to range in the upper 80s to mid 90s. With a
meandering surface trough over the Highway 27 corridor, winds ahead
of this are south-southwesterly with gusts up to 30 mph at times.
Along/west of this west-northwest flow is in place.
The main wx threats for the short term period will be the chances
for strong to severe storms each day, with the focus for late
afternoon/evening development.
As mentioned, there is currently a surface low/trough that has just
moved east of the Colorado border. There is a front attached to this
that stretches south into southwest Kansas. Aloft, the RAP40 500mb
analysis is showing a shortwave over southeast Colorado that will
lift into Kansas and interact with the surface features this
afternoon and tonight. From the latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest)
the latest HRRR is the most probable at this time showing convection
starting along the trough.
With convection already cropping up around/in the CWA, SPC has
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to cover expected convection
through 03z Friday. All threats on the table with decent instability
and high PW values, especially ahead of the boundary/trough. Winds
around 60 mph, hail 1-2 inches w/ parameters suggesting a tornado or
even landspout possible along the boundary. The HRRR does show this
activity pushing east by 03z-04z Friday with scattered convection
thereafter.
Going into Friday, similar situation to today. High pressure is
slowly settling east of region through Friday night. Looking at a
N/NE flow into the area through the period. A trough moves off the
Front Range as a front, settling south of the area by 12z Saturday.
It will be this front interacting with a another shortwave to
trigger another round storms. Afternoon and evening setup for these.
SPC still favors a Slight Risk for severe storms for much of the CWA
with hail and wind threats once again. PW values do shift east
through the period, but at least 0.80" in the west, up to 1-1.20"
east, so some heavy threat is possible.
For Saturday, slightly cooler air will be present over much of the
area through the day. The focus for strong to severe storms will be
along/south of Hwy 40 closest to the previous front that remains
over southern KS through the day. SPC carries a Marginal Risk for
severe storm potential there with wind and hail threats. There will
be chances north of Hwy 40, but a better stable airmass resides
lowering the severe threat.
For temps, highs on Friday will be ranging in upper 80s into the mid
90s. Going into Saturday, a range of 80s is expected with warmest
locales along/south of I-70. Lows tonight will range mainly in the
60s, with areas east of Highway 83 around 70F. For Friday night,
upper 50s west to the upper 60s east will give way to upper 50s to
lower 60s for Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
From the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, amplified 500mb ridge
will persist over the central Plains for Sunday and Monday, before
the ridge flattens to zonal flow and shifts slightly eastward from
Tuesday onward. There will be several shortwaves that traverse the
northern periphery of the ridge each day.
At the surface, the focus will be on a couple lows and their
associated fronts that move through the region. The first system
starts off a trough over the eastern slopes of the Rockies on
Sunday, with a very slow shift south and east into Monday, settling
south of the CWA for the Tue-Wed timeframe. A quicker system for the
end of the week will push through the area, aided by a digging ridge
from the north.
As a result, each day the passage of the aforementioned shortwaves
will interact the surface front/low, creating rw/trw. For Sun-Mon,
while some initiation is expected for the late afternoon hours each
day, the best chances(30-40%) will occur during the evening,
especially north of the Interstate. These areas will be closest to
the system as it slowly moves into the CWA. Better moisture feed and
instability is expected for Tue-Wed as the boundary sets up
along/south of the area, opening the area up to more of an easterly
fetch for better low level moisture/instability and thus better
storms chances(40-60%). High PW values around 1-2" are expected each
day, with high numbers in the east, combined with daytime heating,
will create as least the chances for storms producing heavy
rainfall. But strong to severe storms are possible as well.
For Thu-Fri, this will envelope the arrival of the second boundary
albeit a bit weak. There still be be chances for storms like
mentioned above, but lower chances of coverage area-wide(30-40%).
For temps, daytime highs each period will continue at above normal
levels. On Sunday, 80s area-wide. 90s will persist each day next
week except for Monday where a range from the mid 90s to lower 100s
are expected. Hottest areas will be along and east of Highway 25.
With a return to 100+ degree heat, heat indices will be around 100
in areas along/east of Highway 83. This will have to be watched for
a potential Heat Advisory. Overnight lows will range in the 60s. A
few spots east on Monday night could only drop to the 70F mark.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. 10-20 knot
S-SSE winds are anticipated to become light and variable
overnight. Winds will shift to the N and increase to ~15 knots
within a few hours after sunrise (~13-14Z).. becoming light and
variable once again during the early-mid afternoon. While a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at either terminal this
evening (and again on Friday).. confidence in thunderstorm
development, location and coverage is low enough to preclude
explicit mention at this time.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorm potential this evening and again tomorrow
evening, consisting of significant hail/wind, tornado, and flash
flooding risk
- Virtually daily thunderstorm chances through mid next week,
although weekend potential is mainly limited to the panhandle
- Up and down temperatures over the next week, although
generally warm tomorrow, mild Saturday, and hot Monday with
values pushing advisory criteria in the south
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
A couple low pressure centers along the High Plains are the focus
this afternoon, one being just north of the Black Hills and the
other near the southern CO/KS line. A trough connects the two,
stretching across the panhandle, while a warm front extends
southeast from the Black Hills low toward the Neb stretch of the
Missouri R. Mixed cloudiness has accompanied gusty south winds
across the CWA today that have pushed dew points well into the 60s
and air temps into the 80s. Upper levels indicate a substantial
shortwave incoming from the northern Rockies and quasi-zonal
flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
This evening into tonight... Convective initiation and evolution are
the main challenges through tonight as thunderstorms are expected to
roll through portions of the forecast area, likely resulting in
severe wind and/or hail. Initiation should occur mid afternoon invof
the surface trough in the panhandle, then spread east through the
evening and early nighttime hours. Convective parameters support
supercellular mode early on, per SPC RAP mesoanalysis and 19z LBF
RAOB. The wind profile features low level veering becoming straight
higher up, suggestive of splitting cells and an evolution toward
mixed convective mode. Of note, deep layer shear is almost marginal
given the setup (0-6km bulk of 35-40 kts), although trends show it
is increasing this afternoon. Instability is ample though, around
2000j/kg MLCAPE, and fairly steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5
C/km. The CAPE profile is also rather fat in the -10 to -30C hail
growth zone. Considering these factors, agree with SPC for
significant severe outlooks (2" hail, 75mph winds). As for
tornadoes, the greater low level / LCL-LFC moisture and SRH are
farther east away from the forcing and where clusters or bowing
segments are anticipated versus initial supercells. If one were to
occur, the most favorable corridor would be somewhere Hwy 61 to Hwy
83 ahead of the surface trough and before more mixed/linear
evolution takes over. General CAMs consensus highlights the 21-03z
timeframe for most activity in the west and 00-06z toward north
central Neb. Will also need to monitor the hydrology situation as
H85 vectors indicate (and sfc dew points near 70F) strong
convergence and advection across the area. Estimated PWAT values
exceed 1.5 in central Neb where storm coverage may be more
widespread as the event wears on, especially as the low level jet
strengthens. Forecast storm motion of 20-25 kts may help limit the
overall widespread threat of flash flooding, and it will be more
concentrated toward locations that have received recent rainfall.
Overnight, low level flow switches to north/northwest behind the
boundary and followup cool front, which will help kick out most of
the thunder activity and reset the atmosphere at least temporarily.
Tomorrow and tomorrow night... A surface high briefly fills into the
northern Plains during the day, then gives way to another surface
low that parks over Colorado. Another surface trough may extend
northward into the panhandle later in the day to help serve as
additional focus or lift, while another potent shortwave approaches
and an upper trough brushes the northern reaches of the region. The
tail end of the 100kt H3 jet streak dips into the northern Sandhills
later in the day. A repeat performance is possible in terms of
convection developing in the panhandle and growing upscale as it
spreads east through the evening. The greatest concern generally
lies in the southern CWA invof the surface low where a ribbon of
greater instability intersects with deeper shear and steep lapse
rates. The tornado threat appears more uncertain with the setup, but
severe hail and wind are definitely on the table. As for max temps,
blended in some warmer guidance as the trend has increased slightly.
Advection at H85 will be nearly negligible (00z to 00z) despite the
northerly flow to start the day, so leaned toward 80s north and
lower 90s south. These values are still below the median of the NBM
envelope, so later forecast may need adjusted up further. Another
punch of relatively drier air arrives behind the action overnight,
and temps may actually touch 50F along the Pine Ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
A heat dome builds over the Southern US over the weekend and expands
to start the workweek, with the H5 ridge axis bisecting the
Sandhills late Sunday into Monday. While a dip in max temps is
expected Saturday under a northern Plains surface high, a rebound
into the 90s and possibly 100F (south) is anticipated for Monday.
The southern three counties approach heat headline criteria, so this
trend will need watched going forward. After the upper ridge, flow
becomes southwesterly and eventually quasi-zonal. When combined with
various surface boundaries and frontal passages, the active
thunderstorm pattern will likely resume Monday and continue through
at least Wednesday. An outside chance of thunder exists in the
meantime, mainly for the panhandle where higher terrain activity may
survive. The greater potential for widespread storms comes Monday
and Tuesday, and SPC highlights north central for severe.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Thunderstorms continue to attempt to develop across the
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska this evening. At this time, LBF
has the greatest potential of seeing thunderstorm activity,
generally 01Z to 03Z. Gusty, erratic winds and brief reductions
in visibility will be possible within any thunderstorms. Confidence
on VTN seeing impacts from thunderstorm activity is meager.
Will heavily rely on radar and satellite trends for future
amendments and inclusions should they be needed. Outside of
thunderstorms, southerly winds will veer towards the north
behind a cold frontal passage tonight. These northerly winds may
become breezy along and behind the front with gusts up to
25kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Viken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
802 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Rounds of showers are expected Friday into Saturday and then Monday
night into Tuesday with quiet weather following each round.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
It`s a pleasant late June aftn across Upper MI under sfc high pres
centered over the western Great lakes. Temps generally range from 60-
65 along the Great Lakes to the lwr 70s F inland. Dwpts are
comfortably low, ranging from around 40 to around 50F. Cu has
developed away from stabilizing flow off of the Lakes, and a streak
of high clouds is spreading over western Upper MI. Off to the w,
water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a well-defined shortwave
trof over the nw U.S. This feature will bring the next round of
shra/some tsra to Upper MI during Fri into Sat. Ahead of that trof,
a weaker shortwave across the Plains is generating shra and a few
tsra from ND across sw MN into western IA.
Clouds will be on the increase from w to e tonight. Shra associated
with the lead Plains wave should reach western Upper MI in the 09z-
12z time frame. Prior to that, a modest increase in 850mb theta-e
and increasing 850mb flow may support a few isold -shra across
western Upper MI after 06z. Will be warmer night tonight than last
night under increasing clouds and stirring winds. Expect min temps
ranging from around 50 e to 55-60F w.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
It will be an active end to the work week and beginning of the
weekend as an approaching trough and associated surface low pressure
feature pass directly over the UP Friday and Saturday. These will
force showers and thunderstorms, of which an isolated storm on
Friday may be strong to severe. Despite the prolonged period of
shower chances, flooding rainfall is not expected. High pressure
then sweeps over the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday, allowing for
some nice summer weather. The next round of precipitation looks to
be late Monday into Tuesday, but the surface low associated with
those showers looks to not be particularly strong and also displaced
well to the north, so impacts should be relatively low. Model spread
increases beyond then, but a continued warm and wet pattern is
expected to continue.
Beginning Friday, a 500mb trough will be over eastern Montana and
quickly progressing east. This will support an upper-990s mb low
developing over the Northern Plains, causing a strengthening
southerly surface flow setup. 850mb warm advection, isentropic
upglide, and 500mb PVA will all contribute lift for showers well
ahead of the main surface front, with the HREF suggesting widespread
60-90% hourly PoPs spreading into the western UP Friday morning
while the cold front is still between Minneapolis and Fargo. Will
note that rainfall rates continue to be maximized over Lake Superior
and the far western UP, closer in proximity to the warm front and
left-exit region of the LLJ that may be providing a little extra
lift.
Convection in the morning should be fairly weak as instability is
meager, but HREF mean MUCAPE suggests by 00Z Wednesday, instability
in the IWD vicinity will be approaching 500 J/kg, so some afternoon
thunder is within the realm of possibility. It is definitely a low-
CAPE, high-shear environment, with HREF mean 0-3km SRH values well
north of 200 m2/s2. Reflectivity paintball plots indicate strong
convection firing upstream along/ahead of the cold front, so
depending on if those storms can survive as they progress eastward,
an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out over the west, but
there is plenty of uncertainty given the lack of instability.
Meanwhile, PWATs up to 2in indicate a potential for some decent
rainfall amounts, with most of the guidance showing a widespread
quarter to half-inch of rain area-wide and some heavier amounts
potentially approaching an inch in the heaviest of downpours. This
would be most likely across the western UP ahead of the cold front.
As this is well below even hourly flash flood guidance,
Shower activity continues into the first half of Friday night ahead
of the cold front, then tapers off as a dry slots works in. Then,
another shortwave dropping through with an associated (albeit
weaker) cold front will touch off additional chances for showers
during the afternoon hours Saturday. With soundings indicating a few
hundred j/kg of CAPE, particularly across the south-central UP where
we may be able to see some partially clearing skies early in the day
Saturday, some thunder is not out of hte question. Otherwise, given
a rather moisture-starved column, any rain totals should be light,
generally a tenth of an inch or less.
PoPs fall off behind the front, with dry weather expected as early
as 06Z Sunday. This is supported by a ~1025mb high pressure that
will be over southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon and over the
Lower Peninsula by Monday afternoon. This will lead to a couple of
nice sunny days, though Sunday will definitely be the cooler day of
the two as cool northerly flow aloft will keep highs mainly in the
60s Sunday, but winds becoming southerly Monday will allow highs to
rebound to seasonal 70s. Dewpoints could be worth watching Sunday as
soundings show a good potential for these to mix out (even reaching
values in the 30s!) but light winds and plenty of recent rainfall
continue to temper our fire risk.
Precipitation chances begin to ramp up Monday night into Tuesday as
the next trough exits the Rockies and a surface low passes generally
through northern Ontario. Ensembles show this low as only marginally
stronger than 1000 mb and as even the southernmost cluster of lows
remains well north of the UP, dynamics should be fairly weak over
the UP, so hazardous weather seems unlikely at this time. Following
the passage of showers, another dry period is expected Wednesday,
but to what extent that dry weather lasts is uncertain as ensemble
spread increases significantly, though a pattern change is still not
expected with CPC outlooks continuing to favor wet weather through
early July.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
VFR conditions to prevail through tonight at all TAF sites with
gradual deterioration to MVFR and then IFR starting at IWD by Fri
12Z. CMX and SAW will follow with MVFR by late morning/early
afternoon Friday. And, IFR will become predominant by late
Friday morning at IWD and during the afternoon at CMX and SAW.
A possible return to MVFR by the end of the TAF period is
possible, but little improvement is expected. In addition, LLWS
will be a threat at IWD/CMX starting early tomorrow morning
through the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Under high pressure, wind gusts will remain below 20 kt through
today and tonight. As a cold front approaches from the west,
southerly wind gusts increase to 20-25 kt across the western half of
the lake by Friday afternoon, then across the eastern half by Friday
evening. Wind gusts fall below 20kts Friday night while veering
westerly, but then a secondary front dropping through will bring
another round of 20-25kt gusts across much of the lake for the
daytime hours Saturday. The return of high pressure will keep wind
gusts below 20 kt Saturday night through Monday night before the
next system passes through northern Ontario, causing southerly winds
to increase to around and above 20kts for Tuesday.
Long-duration southerlies on Friday will cause waves over the
northern portions of the lake to increase to 4-6 ft. The westerlies
behind the cold front passage will cause 3-5 ft waves over the
eastern half of the lake Saturday night. Thunderstorms will also
threaten the lake Friday and Saturday, with some strong to severe
storms possible over the western portion of the lake Friday evening.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
835 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the southern Mid-Atlantic region will move
through Friday morning, then lift north as a warm front Friday
afternoon. A hotter and more humid airmass will become established
across the area this weekend before a cold front approaches the area
on Sunday and moves into the Carolinas on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 835 PM Thursday...
Evening surface analysis shows a few boundaries worth noting to
influence our weather for the rest of the night. The first is a
loosely defined boundary that pushed through today and currently
resides along far eastern NC and stretches into central SC, northern
GA and connecting to a weak area of low pressure over central AL.
This front does not have much of a temp/dewpoint change, mainly just
a wind shift. The surface low in AL is also present as a trough at
mid-levels and will continue to circulate over the deep south
overnight before weakening later Fri morning/afternoon. This trough
to our SW could keep mid clouds across the southern Piedmont,
Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain for several hours before
slowly dissipating. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out in
the southern Piedmont owing to some low-level lift and elevated
instability, but most CAMs are dry.
The second boundary has a more noticeable temp/moisture
discontinuity. Its location stretches from the the far NE US into
the lower OH valley and portions of MO/IL. Behind this boundary is
an area of high pressure over the Great Lakes. This high is forecast
to strengthen and reach eastern PA/NY by sunrise. That movement
should allow southward progression of the aforementioned boundary,
likely settling somewhere near the NC/VA border by Fri morning.
While these lower dewpoints are not expected to move through until
sometime Fri afternoon, recent runs of the HRRR suggest low stratus
or fog could develop with the approach of the front as moisture
pools along the boundary. Patchy fog may also be possible over the
Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills, where dewpoints are higher and
rain did occur earlier today. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...
High pressure across New England on Friday morning will shift
offshore on Wednesday allowing the lingering cold front across the
eastern Carolinas to lift north as a warm front on Friday. A light
northeast low level flow on Friday morning will veer to
southeasterly during the afternoon and continue into the overnight.
Surface dew points will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s to start
the day, they may mix out a bit toward midday but with the
southeasterly flow they will jump into the lower to mid 70s during
the afternoon and overnight. With the southeast flow expect a decent
amount of cloudiness and the potential for some widely scattered
convection during the afternoon and into the overnight with the
convection favored in an arc across the south and west.
Highs will be complicated by the amount of cloudiness but should
range in the upper 80s near the VA border and Triad and the lower
90s in most other locations. Maximum heat index values will
range in the 90s to around 100. Lows Friday night will be warm
and muggy with the clouds and southeast flow with lows of 70-75.
-Blaes
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM Thursday...
This above-normal temp stretch will hit yet another crescendo this
weekend, with convection chances peaking Sun/Sun night. A brief temp
respite arrives early next week, however this will quickly give way
to a return to excessive heat midweek.
Sat-Sun night: Well above normal temps and high dewpoints return
Sat, as low level thermal ridging and and warm/stable mid levels
spread in from the W and WSW. A potent northern stream shortwave
trough swings through the upper Midwest and N Great Lakes Sat but
the main band of westerlies holds N of NC, leaving us within a
regime of light steering flow. Weak surface troughing will be in
place through the Piedmont, but a loose low level height field
yielding weak low level flow will limit any low level mass
convergence. As such, any storms Sat are apt to be weakly forced and
more pulse-type, focusing on subtle boundaries and the sea breeze.
PW will be rebounding Sat, with model projections of values surging
over 2" through the NC Piedmont, so expect scattered late-day
coverage despite the lack of a focus or strong mechanism to force
ascent. Thicknesses and surface dewpoints will rebound as well,
supporting highs Sat in the low-mid 90s and heat index values of 100-
105 in all but NW sections. By Sun/Sun night, the mid level trough
will dig positively and somewhat strongly over extreme SE Canada and
the St Lawrence Valley into the Northeast, with a corresponding
strengthening in cyclonic mid level flow over our area as the
attendant surface cold front approaches late in the day. Low level
thicknesses rise to 10-15 m above normal ahead of the front with
surface dewpoints also likely to be quite high, well into the 70s
with only modest afternoon increases given low level moisture influx
ahead of the front. Sun is likely to be another day of dangerous
heat, with highs mostly in the mid 90s and heat indices again around
100-105 over most of the area. Sun should have the highest rain
chances, as most deterministic models show PW rising to highly
anomalous values around 2.5" along with moderate SBCAPE and decent
(but still less than ideal) deep layer bulk shear. Will continue
with a period of likely pops Sun afternoon and evening, extending
into the overnight in the S.
Mon-Thu: The front will settle to our S for Mon/Tue with high
pressure nosing in from the N, resulting in mostly dry weather
(except for pops in the S Mon, a nod to a possible slower frontal
progression). The mid level trough extending down through the Mid
Atlantic early Mon will shift offshore by Tue as ridging aloft
builds anew from the S Plains/Lower Miss Valley, so expect the
mostly dry weather to persist through mid week at least. As the
surface ridge pushes out over the open NW Atlantic by Wed, the
oppressive heat will return. After near normal highs and gloriously
low dewpoints in the 60s Mon/Tue, we should see highs in the mid-
upper 90s return for Wed and July 4th, with very low chances for
showers and storms. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM Thursday...
VFR conditions are expected to continue for much of the 24 hour TAF
period as a weak cold front continues to progress to our south.
However, some guidance does indicate the potential for both fleeting
MVFR vsbys and ceilings possibly at KFAY and KRWI near sunrise
Friday. KRDU may also see a brief sub-VFR fog near sunrise, but
confidence is too low to mention in the TAF. Any lingering
fog/stratus should lift by mid to late morning. A few isolated
afternoon showers/storms may develop along an inland penetrating sea
breeze which could near KFAY. Otherwise, expect mostly dry
conditions with light nely sfc flow that turns more esely in the
afternoon.
Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area-wide Sat-Sun
mornings, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-evening
showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week
next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998
June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998
June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914
June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969
June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936
July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Luchetti/CA
CLIMATE...RAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
228 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered storms, some strong to severe are possible late this evening
into the overnight period. Damaging wind gusts are the main
hazard.
- The heat returns briefly on Friday afternoon with maximum heat indices
between 103 to 106 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued.
- Severe storms are possible late Friday afternoon into the
evening and overnight periods.
- Sporadic shower and storm chances persist in the late evening
and overnight periods this weekend into most of next week. Not
all areas will see rain, while some areas may see at least an
inch of rainfall or more.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Weak embedded troughing throughout the eastern half of the central
plains has resulted in lingering light showers and isolated
thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon. A secondary
stronger shortwave trough is observed traversing the CO rockies,
progged to bring another round of showers and storms this
evening to eastern Kansas. Latest CAM guidance remains somewhat
inconsistent on the timing and track of convection overnight as
the better low level moisture and theta-e advection remains over
western Kansas. The southerly LLJ should aid thunderstorms in
surging eastward, entering north central KS where up to 2000
J/KG is expected. Effective shear is on the weak side at 30 kts
or less so would expect these clusters to carry a threat for
damaging wind gusts. As they trek into northeast Kansas towards
12Z Friday, MUCAPE values drop below 1000 J/KG so would
anticipate a weakening trend with convection into the mid-
morning Friday before exiting into Missouri. Clouds and/or rain
showers may linger just long enough into the daytime Friday to
inhibit heat indices from reaching advisory criteria,
especially far eastern Kansas from Topeka to Lawrence and
Garnett. Went ahead with a Heat Advisory for much of the area to
the west where gusty southerly winds should aid sfc dewpoints
to rise into the middle 70s, resulting in heat indices from 103
to 108 in the afternoon. Will continue to monitor convective
trends overnight to see if the advisory needs to be expanded.
On Friday afternoon, a frontal boundary sags southward through the
CWA, creating a focus for isolated convection to form in the late
afternoon. Strong convergence along the boundary is not apparent on
latest guidance,despite the RAP and Namnest eroding the capping
layer after 23Z. Given the ample instability (Over 4000 J/KG of sfc
MUCAPE) and 40 kts of bulk shear present, any storm that does
form will be capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. If storms do not form along the boundary in the
early evening, another MCS coming out of NE overnight could
reach portions of the CWA, bringing another damaging wind risk
through Saturday morning.
Things begin to quiet down for the weekend as upper ridging attempts
to spread over the central plains. Depending on where the boundary
hangs up Saturday evening, additional storms are expected generally
south of Interstate 70 through the overnight period. Damaging winds
and hail would be the main hazards with this event. It`s worth
northing that the 12Z guidance has trended further south with
highest QPF values in southern Kansas.
Upper ridge exits the region Sunday evening as broad westerly flow
introduces several weak waves capable of producing overnight storm
complexes beginning Monday morning and each subsequent early morning
through the July 4th holiday. Confidence in pops and severe weather
probs are overall low for this period. Temperatures are mostly near
normal in the low 90s for highs with the exception of Tuesday
afternoon where heat indices once again surge to around 105.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
VFR at terminals as high and mid clouds continue to stream
southward through the afternoon. Southeast winds above 10 kts
subside briefly before scattered TSRA increases in coverage aft
05Z as southerly winds increase. Activity spreads east
overnight, impacting all terminals through sunrise. Some minor
differences in timing of storms, but overall consistent in
formation and track thru 15Z. Sfc winds veer to the south,
becoming gusty as the low level jet mixes down Friday morning,
tempering concerns for LLWS at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto