Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/27/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1037 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain/Storm Chances Return Early Friday and Continue for Friday
and Friday Night. Probability for .1" of rain is 80-90%
however, for 0.5" 30 to 60% with the highest toward DBQ.
- Cooler Weekend On Tap, Temperatures 0 to 10 Degrees Below Normal
For This Time Of Year.
- Turning More Active as we Head into Early Next Week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Overview:
Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed a
500mb trough from the Great Lakes southwest toward the southern
Plains. A ridge was over the Rockies and the Four-Corners area.
Another area of closed low pressure was heading toward the West
Coast. A couple of large mesoscale convective systems were over
the eastern Great Lakes/PA/NY and also from southern MO/MS/LA.
Sporadic convection was noted throughout the ridge and ahead of
the West Coast trough.
Locally, we are under northwest flow aloft with surface high
pressure building in. Satellite imagery showed sunny to partly
cloudy skies. Winds were brisk northwest with temperatures in the
70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s.
Through Friday:
A back-door cool front will move southwestward across parts of
Wisconsin through tonight with surface high pressure building in.
RAP forecast soundings show patchy low level moisture. With the
MVFR ceilings upstream. Clouds should decrease after sunset, but will
need to monitor any patchy low cloud development. Also, where
areas are more clear, there is the potential for valley fog
with the weak low level flow. With the drier airmass and short
nights, any fog looks to be patchy. Thursday morning, return
flow is on the increase on the western periphery of the high
pressure system and the ridge aloft tries to build. Moisture
transport is on the weaker side, however some 850mb moisture
warm air advection will continue to produce clouds and a few
sprinkles or a shower could occur Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. The RAP/HRRR both show some activity in parts of
the forecast area by 01Z,however do not agree on the area.
Moisture transport increases across Minnesota after 06Z Thursday
night into Friday, shifting eastward across the forecast area and
tends to split north and south. Meanwhile a shortwave trough is
forecast to flatten the ridge and move through the westerly flow. As
a result, we see showers and thunderstorms become more widespread 80-
90%. At this time, the severe weather threat appears low. Forecast
soundings show limited instability with MUCAPE of 250-500J/kg
with weak mid level winds. 0-3km shear is substantial though.
Should instability increase, the severe weather threat would be
more elevated, thus as we approach Friday, we`ll need to watch
this. The surface front lags the short wave, thus showers and
thunderstorms continue into Friday night. The upper level trough
swings through and tends to focus the storms north and south of
the forecast area. Before the cold front clears the forecast
area, some instability pushes through overnight, but the flow
is more veered by then. The EC/Canadian/GEFS ensemble
probability for .1" of rain is 80-90% however, for 0.5" 30 to
60% with the highest toward DBQ.
The weekend into next week:
Saturday, the upper level trough is digging through the Upper
Mississippi Valley with surface high pressure building in the the
west. Generally dry weather is forecast, however forecast soundings
show a spotty shower cannot be ruled out with the heating during the
afternoon/low level instability. Surface high pressure is
forecast to be over the area Sunday. High temperatures Thursday
through Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s to lower 80s, thus
near to 10 degrees below normal.
Active weather returns for early next week. A trough over the West
Coast during the weekend heads toward the Upper Mississippi Valley
for early next week. Southerly flow ahead of a couples of embedded
shortwave troughs should bring sporadic thunderstorm activity to the
forecast area through possible Tuesday afternoon. Warmer
temperatures also return with highs in the 80s.
&&
HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Several rivers fell below flood stage over the last 12 to 24
hours, but most of this water is still on route to the
Mississippi River. The Mississippi River is expected to keep
rising through the next 5 to 7 days depending on location and
which rivers route into that particular location. Minor to
moderate flood stages are expected from Lake City through
Guttenberg. While official forecasts from the River Forecast
Center do take into consideration all of the water that has
already fallen and is on its way into the Mississippi River, it
only takes the next 24-48 hours of forecast precipitation. Since
the next chance of precipitation for the local area is not until
Friday, this will not be accounted for in the official
forecasts. At this time, rainfall expected for Friday (0.10-0.70")
does not appear that it would substantially affect the
Mississippi River forecast.
The forecast rain on Friday will likely keep the river elevated
beyond the next 7 to 10 days and the river may initially fall
some before beginning to rise again as the additional rainfall
flows downstream this weekend into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Main taf concerns is development of fog in low lying areas and river
valleys overnight. High pressure builds into the region overnight
and provides mostly clear skies/light winds overnight. With drier
airmass over the area and light north wind aloft near the surface.
This will inhibit widespread Mississippi River Valley fog. With
confidence low on widespread valley fog development...have continued
patchy fog...BCFG...at the LSE taf site. Wind direction switch
around to a southerly direction Thursday afternoon...as high
pressure moves east of the region. Wind speeds increase to around 10
knots Thursday afternoon/evening.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...DTJ
HYDROLOGY...JW/Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
853 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 835 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024
Well, a tricky forecast this afternoon and evening. Temperatures
were quite hot again with a few places into the low 100s while
most others were in the 90s. Thunderstorms did initiate in western
Alabama with heating of the day and an approaching upper trough.
Outflows from activity in Mississippi also aided in storm
development. A few of these storms produced severe wind gusts over
60 mph and blowing trees down. Much drier and more stable air was
over eastern Alabama, but the storms held on and many places did
get rain and thunderstorms east. No additional severe weather is
anticipated overnight, but more showers and storms are possible. A
fine line of activity was indicated near Memphis this evening.
This was near a surface cold front and a trough aloft. These
features will swing into the area overnight and Thursday. Will
continue the belief that there is an increased signal that the
entire system will be slower to exit. This leads to better rain
chances than initially thought. Lows will be near 70 overnight and
highs 85 to 95 on Thursday.
75
Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024
Contrary to much of the 12Z guidance, a large coverage of showers
and thunderstorms have already developed across much of central
and eastern Mississippi and into western portions of central
Alabama. Once the cu field began developing this morning, it
didn`t take long for rain to start falling. This activity is being
driven by a large increase in moisture associated with an
approaching trough axis and cold front over the Midsouth region.
There`s currently a moisture gradient over the area, and there`s
still some drier air across the eastern half where dewpoints have
once again mixed down into the lower to mid 60s. However, moisture
will advect eastward with propagation of the trough, so expect
further area-wide development of convection through the afternoon
with the highest chance for rain focused generally along and west
of I-65. This rain should give us some relief from the heat, but
not soon enough as most areas have already reached the mid to
upper 90s. Per RAP mesoanalysis, MUCAPE is around 3000-4000 J/kg
in our west where dewpoints are in the lower 70s. While shear
values are rather weak, some strong downbursts may produce
damaging winds, and storms could also produce torrential downpours
with PWATs around 2".
There`s been an increasing signal of scattered showers and storms
continuing overnight and into tomorrow as the cold front and strong
PVA move southward into the area. Some hi-res models are even
resolving an MCV-like feature over the area early tomorrow
morning which would further support additional rain and
thunderstorms. So luckily, the odds at receiving beneficial rain
seem to be improving for the next 24 hours. The scattered to
numerous showers and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the
80s tomorrow.
86/Martin
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024
Most likely period of greater thunderstorm coverage during the
long term will come over the weekend (especially Sunday), as the
southern Plains upper ridge retreats just far enough west to allow
a shortwave trough to come through our area. This shortwave
passage is likely to be accompanied plenty of storms, and likely
POPs seem justified.
Beyond Sunday, a dry low level airmass briefly builds in before
the upper ridge recenters itself over the southeast. This results
in more mid/upper 90s degree heat, with a non-zero percent chance
at triple digits.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 835 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024
Convection is on the downswing this evening. But a cold front and
upper trough approach overnight into Thursday. This will keep the
showers and thunderstorms in the terminal forecast much of the
period. After brief respite, expecting showers and thunderstorms
to redevelop over the area. Additionally, lower clouds will be
developing toward daybreak. Ceilings will drop to MVFR/IFR quickly
around sunrise with showers and thunderstorms around. The ceilings
do rise above criteria by 18z but the mention of convection
remains. Winds generally stay light and variable throughout.
Note: NIL was introduced at TCL for missing data.
75
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture and chances for showers and storms increase across West
Alabama through tonight, while RH values in East Alabama will
still drop into the 25 to 35 percent range. Scattered, mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday
into the weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast. RH
values will stay above 45 percent in most areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 70 88 69 92 / 30 40 10 40
Anniston 72 89 72 91 / 50 50 10 40
Birmingham 72 89 73 93 / 30 40 10 40
Tuscaloosa 71 88 72 92 / 40 40 10 30
Calera 73 89 73 93 / 30 50 10 40
Auburn 73 89 73 90 / 60 60 20 50
Montgomery 73 90 73 92 / 40 60 20 60
Troy 72 89 71 92 / 60 60 30 70
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...75
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
932 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening with the potential to become strong
to severe. Large hail, strong winds, and flash flooding are
the primary hazards today.
- Another round of fairly widespread thunderstorms is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be
strong winds and heavy rainfall.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Latest GOES WV imagery shows mid to upper level cloud cover
across central WY rounding the top of the ridge centered over
the southwest CONUS. This upper level support will continue to
move eastward ahead of the shortwave passage noted on latest RAP
analysis near the CO/WY/UT border. Initial convective activity
has begun over the higher terrain near the Sierra Madre and
Snowy Ranges with latest GOES Day Cloud Phase Distinction
showing clouds beginning to glaciate. Farther to the east over
the South Laramie Range, initial Cu field that was present with
little vertical development late this morning has since
dissipated as RAP soundings and recent CSU research sounding
northwest of Fort Collins continue to show a capping inversion
in place with ~1000 J/kg available aloft. As better lift arrives
from the west and low-levels continue to warm, expect
increasing storm coverage across the Laramie Range by mid-
afternoon and into this evening farther east.
Taking a closer look at the latest observations, it appears the
moisture boundary has made it west of the Laramie Range with KLAR
reporting a 52F degree dew point and easterly winds. While the
NAMNest is overdoing low-level moisture elsewhere across the CWA,
the 12z cycle did bring this higher moisture west of the Laramie
Range with additional storm development farther west than the
remaining HREF members. As storms intensify along and east of the
Laramie Range late this afternoon and approaching the NE panhandle
early this evening, hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall will be
the main hazards. CSU research sounding shows moist profiles with
1.05" PW suggesting efficient rain producing storms and
potentially a limiting factor for large hail growth as no
notable dry layers are present aloft. One area of concern will
be along the I-80 corridor from Pine Bluffs through Sidney where
3-hr Flash Flood Guidance is around 1.5-2".
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024
An active afternoon of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms
will transition to a couple of strong to even severe
thunderstorms by this evening. Discrete thunderstorms will
transition to a line segment of thunderstorms by the time it
reaches the western NE Panhandle, which will primarily be a wind
threat. Convection will wind down late tonight across the NE
Panhandle leaving a moist and conditionally unstable air mass in
its wake. Dew points will be in the 50s and 60s for most of our
cwa by early Thursday morning. A strong atmospheric cap will be
in place by 12z Thursday, but the warm air aloft will mix
quickly down to the surface by midday Thursday. PWATs will be in
the 90th percentile and higher for our cwa. Temperatures will
surge quickly, allowing us to achieve our convective Temperature
easily, especially east of the Laramie Range. Daytime highs in
the 80s and 90s are favored. It will be downright muggy for
areas east of the Laramie Range. LCL bases are modeled to be
near 700mb for areas along and east of the WY/NE state line from
18z onwards, and from 550-650mb in southeast WY. This
translates to inverted-V sounding profiles for almost all of our
cwa. Bulk wind shear measured from the SFC-6km doesn`t really
look appreciable until after 0Z for our eastern forecast zones
in the NE Panhandle. Skinny MUCAPE profiles of 1000+ J/kg for
southeast WY will be prevalent, leaning towards slow-moving
convection in SE WY early on with the potential for heavy
downpours. The potential for a wet microburst or two in SE WY
will possible Thursday afternoon. For the NE Panhandle, a
stronger signal for more organized convection is favored. Warmer
surface temperatures, better instability, lapse rates becoming
more steep as colder air aloft arrives late, and wind shear will
all combine for severe weather becoming more favored. This
lines up with the Day 2 SPC Severe Risk outlook of
Slight/Enhanced in western NE. All modes of severe weather will
be possible in our furthest east zones of the NE Panhandle, with
areas of highest confidence in severe weather in Box Butte,
Cheyenne, Dawes, and Morrill County in the NE Panhandle.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024
A cooler weekend is expected with temperatures quickly ramping by up
by Monday afternoon. Upper-level troughing is progged to be over
northern Montana and southern Canada Friday morning, with strong
southwesterly flow out ahead. Flow down at 700mb will be more
westerly as the 700mb low passes north of the region across Montana
and North Dakota. 700mb heights will tighten briefly across the
region, leading to a short period with elevated wind potential,
especially in locations west of the Laramie Range. These winds will
quickly be decreased as the attendant cold front sweeps across the
region, with gusty northwesterly winds likely after the passage. The
frontal passage looks to be mostly dry, as moisture values are not
overly impressive across southeast Wyoming. A better chance for
precipitation will be across the Panhandle where dewpoints increase
into the 50s ahead of the cold front. Temperatures are expected to
be in the upper-70s west of the Laramie Range and upper-70s to upper-
80s east of the Laramie Range.
Saturday will be a few degrees cooler behind the passing cold front.
High temperatures will be in the upper-70s to low-80s west of the
Laramie Range and mid-70s to low-80s east of the Laramie Range.
Renewed warm air advection across western portions of the CWA will
increase temperatures for Saturday, despite the cold frontal passage
the day before. 700mb temperatures increase back into the 15-17C
range west of the Laramie Range, further promoting these warmer
temperatures. Zonal upper-level flow will return for Saturday as the
upper-level trough pushes off to the east and a ridge begins to
build over the central CONUS once more. With the zonal flow expected
Saturday, could see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms
as disturbances push through the upper-level flow.
Upper-level ridging returns in full for the CWA on Sunday, with
700mb temperatures increasing into the 16-18C range throughout the
day. Southerly flow at the surface will enhance the already warm
temperatures during the day, with highs expected to be in the upper-
80s to low-90s west of the Laramie Range and low- to upper-90s east
of the Laramie Range. A moisture fetch from the Gulf of Mexico will
be advected into the region with the strong southerly flow, leading
to potentially slightly muggy conditions for the Panhandle and
potentially southeast Wyoming. With additional moisture being
advected into the region, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in the afternoon Sunday with additional support from
daytime heating.
The remaining long term looks to be very warm again, with highs
consistently in the upper-80s and 90s across the region. The 4th of
July looks to be rather toasty, with the GFS and ECMWF suggesting
700mb temperatures to approach 20C! This would likely result in
surface temperatures approaching 95F or higher for the Cheyenne
area. However, this is still over a week out at this time. Attention
will need to be paid to how warm the holiday will be and if that
heat could turn dangerous.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 928 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024
West flow aloft will continue.
Wyoming TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 8000 to
12000 feet will prevail, with areas of fog at Cheyenne reducing
visibilities to 2 to 4 miles and ceilings to 1500 feet until
15Z. Winds will gust to 33 knots at all terminals from 15Z to
00Z.
Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds near 9000 feet will
prevail. Winds will gust to 25 knots at Chadron and Alliance
until 09Z.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MB
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
840 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Two rounds of storms, which are marginally severe, are
expected to enter Kansas from Colorado Wednesday and late
Wednesday night.
- Thursday through Saturday, a broad pattern favorable for MCSs
will take hold providing multiple rounds for storm systems.
- The end of the period after the weekend will see the previous
pattern clear with the potential (>65% via ensembles) of 100F
temperatures returning to the forecast area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
KDDC radar, lightning detection networks, and infrared satellite
imagery indicate weakening thunderstorms limping into far SW KS
(Morton county and vicinity) as of 830 pm. Storms earlier
produced outflow wind gusts near 60 mph at Springfield, Baca
county Colorado. The various parameters for thunderstorm
maintenance across SW KS are quite weak, but not completely
inhibitive, such that sub severe showers and thunderstorms are
forecast by the models to phase eastward through sunrise
Thursday. Activity is already redeveloping on the older activity
outflow, and this process of maintenance is expected to
continue. Retained pops in the chance category, with a midlevel
cloud deck and scattered rain showers expected early Thursday
morning. Instability will remain limited, with CAPE generally
less than 1000 J/kg, so only some locally heavier rainfall and
embedded lightning is expected. 18z NAM shows the shortwave
responsible for the showers over SW KS about 10 am, then moving
eastward into eastern Kansas Thursday afternoon. Strong lee
troughing will reestablish over eastern Colorado, supporting a
traditionally windy western Kansas day, with south winds
averaging 20-30 mph with higher gusts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
A large upper-level ridge continues to dominate the pattern.
Despite this, Wednesday into Thursday will feature two rounds
of precipitation chances (25% and 55% from ensembles
respectively). CAMs have initiation around 20Z located
approximately at the CO/OK/NM border. The 12Z NAM place large
amounts of CVA and vertical velocity ahead of those storms in
far SE Colorado into SW Kansas. As the mid- level support
combats the unfavorable conditions aloft, CAMs produce various
solutions for the storms as they enter Kansas. The HRRR shows
the storms struggling to make it past the border while the
NAMNST, HRW FV3, and HRW WRF- NSSL all has storms clipping the
far SW couple counties. The only concurrence the models hold has
been a consistent downward trend of these storms the last
couple days. CAPE values >2000 J/kg and effective shear values
>40 knots would be sufficient in supporting brief severe storm
development/maintenance. DCAPE values nearing 2000 J/kg and
steep low level lapse rates of 9.5 C/km contribute to winds
being the primary threat. However, the associated severe
potential is quite limited due to the lifespan of the storms
after entering the forecast area.
The second round of storms appear more robust, but similar
disagreement exists between CAMs; around 5Z, storms of various
modes and strengths are shown to enter west central Kansas.
Supple PWATs of >1.5 inches shown on NAMNST forecast soundings
will feed these storms well into the morning as it moves across
our northern zones. The most organized parts of this system
create the best chance (>55% from ensembles) of precipitation
in the forecast area through the interstate 70 corridor. Less
organized convection could disperse across the entire forecast
area as ensembles hold a >10% chance for the entire area.
Into Thursday after the storm system moves trough, an
associated winds shift will have south winds prevail during the
day. Around 22Z yet another round of precipitation is expected
to move through. This MCS signal is tracked by ensembles to
follow a similar path as the previous round of precipitation.
North of highway 56 represents a meaningful chance (>33%) for
accumulating precipitation and the best chance (>50) northwest
of the Hays to Garden City axis. Precipitation means from the
ensembles struggle to reach 0.25 inches of accumulation due to
the speed of the system and fairly limited coverage. Despite
this, forecast soundings have notable amounts of instability
(CAPE of 2500 J/kg) and moisture (70F dewpoints) that create a
severe threat where the CAP can be overcome.
Friday will see temperatures rise as ensembles return 100F
temperatures to our southeastern zones, however the latest
trends have pulled back the surface heating and lingering
outflow from the previous MCS could contribute in temperatures
struggling to reach the 100F mark. Saturday night has yet
another MCS signal across ensembles, but the broad area of lower
probabilities put pause in the exact timing and location of
this system.
The rest of the forecast currently looks to provide reprieve
from the MCS abundant pattern. Near the end of the forecast
period into Monday and Tuesday, ensembles have +100F
temperatures returning without MCS interference.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Excellent flying weather will continue through at least 06z Thu,
with VFR/SKC and light E/SE winds. Model consensus is scattered
showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into SW KS
during the 06-12z Thu time range, along with an increase in
associated midlevel cloud decks. Kept TAFs simple for now with
VCTS/CB mentions, pending radar trends tonight. Scattered rain
showers are expected to be in progress around 12z Thu, with
midlevel clouds, but still with VFR prevailing. After 15z Thu,
south winds will increase at all airports gusting to near 30
kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...KJohnson
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Thursday Night/
The earlier cluster of showers and storms has officially exited
our Central Texas counties as of 5 PM, leaving behind generally
hot afternoon conditions for most. Those in East Texas that were
lucky enough to experience the rain and cloud cover only observed
high temperatures in the low 90s, while elsewhere peaked in the
mid 90s to just above 100 degrees. Heat indices generally spiked
near/above 105 degrees, with Sherman taking the unwanted trophy
for highest heat index of 115.
A weak surface cold front that currently draped across Southern
Oklahoma and Arkansas will continue southward as its attached
upper shortwave trough enters the Deep South. As the front inches
closer to the Red River, it will become a focusing point for
renewed development of isolated-scattered showers and storms as it
pushes into North Texas. Additionally, a left-over N-S oriented
stationary outflow boundary can be seen on radar bisecting Dallas
County, which will serve as another area to watch for development
this evening. We`re already starting to see convective development
just to the north of/along the Red River as of 6:30 PM, and this
will persist through the overnight. RAP analysis in this area
shows some steeper lapse rates and increased MUCAPE, promoting the
potential for strong to marginally severe storms. Strong
downburst winds and small hail may accompany the more robust cells
alongside an overall lightning risk. Precipitation should
diminish by early tomorrow morning, leaving behind overall warm
and humid conditions across the region. Expect Thursday morning
lows in the 70s and low 80s.
Going into Thursday afternoon, the front will continue to be draped
NW to SE across North Texas. Diurnal heating will allow for
isolated showers and storms once again along and ahead of the
stalled front, mainly in western North Texas and across Central
Texas. The same threats of gusty downburst winds and small hail
will persist with the stronger storms. Unfortunately, most will
remain dry through the short term period, with afternoon
temperatures peaking in the mid 90s to around 103 outside of any
precipitation. Humid conditions will continue to push heat indices
above the air temperature, generally peaking between triple
digits to just above 110. Once again, storms will dissipate over
the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Another warm
overnight is expected with Friday morning low temperatures in the
70s and low 80s.
With oppressive summer heat continuing, the Heat Advisory will
remain in effect through at least 7 PM Thursday for all of North and
Central Texas, and will likely continue to be extended on a day by
day basis. The big question is whether some counties will meet the
need for an Excessive Heat Warning. Our criteria for an EHW is a
high of at least 105 and/or a peak heat index of at least 110 for
two consecutive days. Today, a few observation sites met/exceeded a
heat index of 110, mainly near/along the I-35 corridor in North
Texas. Tomorrow, heat index near/higher than 110 is expected to be
observed along I-35 near and south of the Metroplex. Because of
the variation of the locations and not meeting the two day
criteria, will not be upgrading any county to an Excessive Heat
Warning at this time.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
/Friday Through Independence Day/
Mid-level ridging will continue to bake North and Central Texas
into early July. The anticyclone will gradually reposition itself
from its current location over the Desert Southwest into the
Southeast U.S. by the middle of next week. Our 500mb heights will
peak during the weekend into early next week as the dome transits
the region, the cumulative heat yielding the highest temperatures
toward the end of that period (Monday and Tuesday).
This will mean clear nights and partly cloudy days as rich Gulf
moisture lifts into a cumulus field. DFW`s dew point soared to 77F
during the daylight hours of this morning, just one degree shy of
the record value for June 26. Thankfully, our daily max and min
dew points will gradually decrease over the next several days as
the heat builds and the mixing depth steadily increases. After
many days with 70F+ dew points at peak heating, much of the region
will see dew point values mix out into the 60s next week. That`s
not dry by any means, but max heat index values (while still
within Heat Advisory criteria) will be less likely to reach 110
despite the hottest temperatures so far this year.
The only decent chance for rain during the period will be Sunday
across portions of Northeast Texas. A shortwave will skirt the
Canadian border late in the week, sending a cold front deep into
the Southern Plains. But the intensity of the ridge will slow its
progress and prevent any associated precipitation from impacting
areas beyond the low chances within the Ark-La-Tex.
By July 4, North and Central Texas will be on the western
periphery of the ridge. While heights will still be indicative of
subsidence, the sea breeze may activate to our south, and another
cold front to our north could disrupt holiday festivities in
Oklahoma. Both areas will bear watching for potential impacts
within our region.
25
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
D10: A weak cold front will move into North Texas tonight,
allowing for isolated showers and storms across portions of North
and East Texas. The chance of direct impacts to the terminals are
low as coverage will remain sparse, so have continued with a VCTS
at all D10 sites from 03-06Z this evening. While VFR will persist,
southerly winds will back to the east overnight as the front moves
closer, with speeds around 10 kts or less persisting through the
rest of the period.
ACT: Southerly winds will persist through tomorrow morning, before
veering west-southwest. A weak front will stall to the north and
east of ACT tomorrow, keeping winds from turning northerly.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the
late afternoon hours across portions of the Big Country and
Central Texas tomorrow, and have introduced a VCTS at ACT starting
at 21Z.
Prater
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 99 81 100 81 / 20 0 0 0 0
Waco 79 99 79 98 78 / 10 20 10 0 0
Paris 75 94 74 97 79 / 20 0 0 0 0
Denton 79 98 79 102 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
McKinney 79 96 79 99 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
Dallas 80 99 81 100 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 95 77 97 78 / 20 5 0 0 0
Corsicana 80 97 79 99 80 / 10 5 0 0 0
Temple 79 99 78 98 78 / 5 20 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 78 101 79 101 79 / 5 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1101 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the region along a cold front
tonight...bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler
and drier air will begin to filter in on Thursday with a few
afternoon showers again possible. A cool night is expected Thursday
night with seasonably cool and dry conditions for the day on Friday.
Unsettled weather returns to the region for this weekend with
additional showers and thunderstorms expected as low pressure moves
north of New England.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11pm Update...Just some minor refinements to PoPs as the evening
progresses. Showers have begun to push into north and western
NH. Short term focus has been monitoring strong MCS moving into
southern New England and how this tracks overnight. Mesoanalysis
proves little instability left over from the daytime, and
just some pockets of 200-400 j/kg of MUCAPE elevated. This won`t
be near enough to sustain the ongoing damaging wind event to the
south as the forcing arrives in southern NH over the next few
hours. Biggest change was to increase rain and thunder chances
for far SE NH as this activity clips this area on its way out to
the GoME.
8pm Update...Not many changes from the day crew. Despite evening
convection across MA setting up north of 12z HREF guidance,
believe this activity pushes east before sfc low pushes across
NH/ME tonight. RAP soundings in southern NH keep low levels dry
through midnight, but upper level saturation should allow
showers to reach surface. With low but nonzero MUCAPE overnight
for the mountains and then towards the Midcoast, have continued
thunder chances here overnight.
Previous Discussion...
High Impact Weather Potential: Some low probabilities for
excessive rainfall across southern areas as well as a severe
thunderstorm risk for far SW New Hampshire.
Pattern: A potent shortwave trough can be seen moving through the
Great Lakes region early this afternoon as a surface cold front
drops toward northern New England. This shortwave will help spawn
low pressure development along the front as it slows while passing
overhead. Thus...forecast concerns will center around shower and
thunderstorms associated with this low and more specifically 1)
where heavy rainfall may occur and 2) whether there is any
severe threat with the thunderstorm activity.
Through this evening: Initial batch of showers is passing east
of the area with a sprinkle or two in it/s wake. While llevel
cloud cover will wane through this evening...high cloudiness
will continue to increase as convection develops across NY/PA.
8pm temperatures will remain warm...only falling to the 70s to
around 80.
Tonight: Overall trend over the past 24 hours has been to lower the
QPF in the mesoscale guidance suite...with low pressure riding just
south of the forecast area overnight as the cold front makes it to
the coast before the surface low arrives. The net result is that
any surface-based instability remains south and east of the forecast
area overnight. There is a small amount of elevated instability
north of the cold front...so a few rumbles can/t be ruled out...but
feel that the severe convective threat will be confined to areas
south of the CWA. With more significant convection south of the
area...the majority of our rainfall overnight will be tied to QG
forcing associated with mid level shortwave and the developing
surface low. This favors more light-moderate rainfall rates with
the heaviest amounts potentially towards the midcoast where some
weak deformation will have the chance to develop depending on how
quickly the surface low spins up. Temperatures will remain generally
mild overnight as more significant cold air advection holds off
until daytime Thursday. Therefore...expect lows in the 50s in the
mountains and the 60s to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
Pattern: Shortwave trough over the eastern portion of the forecast
area will move east of the region with a secondary shortwave and
associated trough dropping through the region. Forecast focus will
be on departing morning precipitation...any shower/storm potential
with the secondary trough...and then cooler temperatures Thursday
night.
Thursday: With low pressure pulling northeast of the forecast area
and initial surface cold front offshore...could see a few residual
showers across the Midcoast to start the day before attention turns
towards a secondary trough that will drop through the region during
the day with very weak height mid level height falls continuing as a
secondary shortwave passes north of New England. While the overall
profile will be drying through the day...some modest moisture
pooling ahead of the secondary trough should allow for a few hundred
J/kg of SBCAPE to develop ahead of the trough. Thus...expect some
afternoon showers to develop with a few rumbles of thunder possible
though instability appears too weak to support a severe threat. T8s
will have fallen a few degrees C since Wednesday...though downslope
assistance will allow southern NH/southwestern ME to push into the
lower 80s again while highs in the 70s with gradually decreasing
dewpoints are expected elsewhere.
Thursday Night: Canadian high pressure helps drive a continental
polar airmass into the region Thursday night with PWATs falling
below 0.25". Thus...a quieter and much cooler night is in store.
Northerly 1000 mb geostrophic winds remain in the 20-30kt range
overnight which should keep all but the deepest valleys coupled.
Some of the statistical guidance drops the northern valleys /BML-
HIE/ just below the 40F mark. Given the remaining winds...this may
be a bit too low...but do expect lows in the lower 40s in the
mountains with lows south of the mountains in the mid 40s to lower
50s...warmest in the urban centers.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A quiet start to the long term before a little more active weather
pattern returns. On Friday high pressure will be centered over New
England resulting in mainly clear as seasonable conditions.
Friday Night into Saturday the high will drift offshore as low
pressure over the upper Great Lakes pushes east. A warm front
followed by a cold front that are associated with this low will
cross the area later Saturday Afternoon and Night. This will
result in increasing clouds during the day on Saturday with rain
developing during the afternoon over NH...reaching western
Maine by late afternoon or early evening. Rain will continue
into the overnight hours of Saturday Night before tapering to
showers by daybreak from west to east. With an upper level
trough approaching the area on Sunday scattered instability
showers and thunder showers will be possible. This upper level
trough will cross the area on Monday meaning a few showers may
linger on Monday although the bulk of the day should be dry. As
the upper level trough reaches the Gulf of Maine there are
indications that low pressure forms. Right now the models have
this east of the area allowing high pressure over the Ohio
Valley to slowly build east for Tuesday into Wednesday. As long
as the low just east of the area does not form further west, we
will see a return of dry and seasonable conditions for Tuesday
into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...
Summary: Low pressure moves through the region tonight along a cold
front with showers and a few thunderstorms. Partial clearing is
expected on Thursday before a few afternoon showers develop. High
pressure builds toward the area Thursday night with clearing skies.
Restrictions: VFR ATTM with conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR
in SHRA and fog after midnight. A few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible. Improvement to VFR occurs on Thursday with VFR
Thursday night.
Winds: West southwest winds 10g15kts through this evening will
weaken to 5kts or less overnight before strengthening to 8G14kts
from the west Thursday. Winds shift to the northwest 5-10kts
Thursday night.
LLWS: LLWS is not expected through Thursday night.
Lightning: There is a low potential for lightning through 19Z at
AUG/RKD. Tonight...an isolated thunderstorm is possible...esp for
southern NH and southwestern ME. Thursday afternoon, an isolated
thunderstorm is again possible.
Long Term...
VFR conditions Friday into Saturday morning. IFR
conditions in developing rain late Saturday over NH overspreading
western Maine Saturday evening and continuing Saturday night. MVFR
with areas of IFR in showers on Sunday as a upper level trough
crosses the area. MVFR to VFR conditions return on Monday as High
pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Southerly winds will weaken tonight as a cold
front settles over the waters. Light winds become southwesterly
on Thursday before shifting northwest and strengthening Thursday
night.
Long Term...Wind and waves to remain below SCA conditions
through Saturday Afternoon. A frontal system crossing the waters
Saturday Night and Sunday will result in SCA Winds and Waves with
areas of rain. Conditions to fall below SCA levels Sunday Night and
Monday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Arnott/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Arnott
LONG TERM...Lulofs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
601 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
A bit more unsettled weather pattern to end the work week, with
subtle shortwave trough and associated slow MCS over northeast TX
and northwest LA this afternoon which models are pretty
consistent with dissipating this evening. However, HRRR and GFS
both support some new development along residual outflow overnight
near east- central TX which would have a south-southwest
propagation component into some of our eastern counties Thursday
morning. While this will dissipate through the day tomorrow,
there should be some persistent mid/high clouds in its wake. So
while the afternoon will once again be another hot one for late
June, not as confident on max heat indicies above 108f with these
lingering MCS affects. Will opt to hold off on a heat advisory for
now, however with late day sun we could still get advisory levels
once again for a few hours later in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
The primary concern in the extended period continues to surround the
potential for excessive heat, while we also continue to monitor for
the possibility of scattered thunderstorms to develop over the
course of the weekend and into the early part of next week. The
contributing synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged, with a
dominant midlevel ridge building to approximately 597-98 dam by the
end of the weekend. With 850mb temps warming to around 22 degC per
the most recent deterministic model runs, high temperatures will
approach the upper 90s for most of the area and even perhaps will
break into the triple digits for a few locations through Tuesday.
With dew points remaining situated in the mid to upper 70s, maximum
apparent temperatures look to approach 110 each day for much of the
area. This, combined with max WBGT values of 90-91 degF, will likely
require the issuance of additional heat advisories throughout much
of the period. With an array of outdoor events underway over the
course of the weekend, heat safety precautions will be paramount.
Taking preventative measures like staying hydrated and avoiding
strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day could very
well be the difference between a pleasant weekend and a heat-related
illness.
While heat stands out as the primary forecast concern, things may
become slightly complicated by the potential for daily isolated
thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the aforementioned ridge, our
positioning on its eastern peripheral will allow a few weak pockets
of shortwave energy to traverse the ridge, supplying enough PVA to
provide an impetus for afternoon convection. This, combined with
robust heating and the daily propagation of the sea/bay breeze, will
keep ~20-30% PoPs in the forecast with the greatest rainfall
potential coming on Sunday and Monday.
Another quick thing to note is the continued elevated low
temperatures (high 70s to low 80s) each night across the area; these
elevated lows can inhibit recovery from daytime heat stress and thus
pose a greater risk for heat-related illnesses in subsequent hot
days. As such, considering heat safety precautions will remain
key.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Current scattered shra/tsra activity between IAH and the coast
should gradually diminish over the next few hours while south to
southeast winds become lighter and more variable. It`s worth
mentioning that a weak outflow boundary is moving south through
Montgomery County and is resulting in a brief period of north to
northeast winds in its wake. It`s possible that areas as far south
IAH, HOU, and SGR could experience a brief north to northeast wind
shift this evening before going more light and variable. Low end
VFR is expected tonight into tomorrow morning. Areas of occasional
MVFR cannot be ruled out. Winds tomorrow start southwest before
becoming south to southeast by afternoon. Scattered shra/tsra
possible again tomorrow. But the best chance of rain is currently
projected to be east of I-45. Still, we cannot rule out having to
add VCSH or VCTS in future updates. In addition, we continue to
monitor the potential for overnight shra/tsra. However, guidance
has backed off on that prospect. Therefore, overnight VCSH was
removed from the TAFs for now.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Generally benign marine conditions are expected for the foreseeable
future as light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will
be a chance for thunderstorms each day, but storm coverage should
generally remain isolated. Conditions are likely to remain below
advisory thresholds for the full period, aside from any brief strong
wind gusts associated with developing storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 97 76 98 / 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 97 78 96 / 20 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>213-226-227.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/northern
Chihuahua this afternoon, resulting in a warm afternoon of triple-
digit highs most locations. Convection that developed overnight has
mostly diminished, but the HRRR redevelops convection early this
afternoon over the higher terrain west of the Pecos, where it`s
needed most. Despite decent low level moisture out there, models
are pretty penurious on QPF, but beggars can`t be choosers, and
we`ll take what we can get.
This activity will slowly diminish overnight w/loss of daytime
heating. Despite a relatively decrepit LLJ (~ 25 kts), partly
cloudy skies will retard radiational cooling, for another night of
unseasonably warm lows ~ 8-10 F above normal.
Overnight, an upper trough is forecast to make landfall in the
PacNW, and will begin flattening the ridge Thursday. This portends
good news for those who don`t like the heat, as thicknesses will
come down a notch, and highs will be a degree or so cooler than
today`s. East-southeasterly upslope flow will once again develop
convection over the higher terrain, and this will continue into the
evening hours.
Thursday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight--a feeble LLJ
offset by a few clouds for overnight lows once again 8-10 F above
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Not many changes to the forecast.
Friday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over Texas,
flattened due to an upper trough traversing the US/Canadian border.
As such, thicknesses will be maximized, resulting in the warmest day
this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 8-10F above normal. A heat
advisory or two may be needed. East-southeasterly upslope flow will
result in a chance of orographic convection over the higher terrain
during the afternoon/overnight. These areas continue to be our most
drought-stricken. Unfortunately, QPF looks meager, so lightning
starts remain a concern. A 40+kt LLJ will keep lows Friday night
well-above normal. In fact, a recurring nocturnal LLJ will keep
lows unseasonably warm throughout the extended.
Saturday, the ridge develops eastward, re-centering roughly over the
ArklaTex, and a downward trend in temperatures ensues as thicknesses
decrease. From here on out, temperatures are a subtle matter of
where the ridge ends up each day. Sunday is on track to be the
coolest day this forecast, when highs top out from at to 2-3 degrees
above normal. Monday/Tuesday, a warming trend kicks in as
thicknesses increase slightly, with a slight cooldown Wednesday as
the ridge shifts more towards the southeast CONUS. Diurnally-driven
convection will be possible each day over the higher terrain due to
upslope flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Afternoon TS should remain west of all terminals and only affect
those flying near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and Big Bend.
Otherwise VFR conditions with light and occasionally gusty
southeast winds will continue.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 78 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 77 102 77 103 / 40 10 10 20
Dryden 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 75 101 76 104 / 0 0 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 71 93 74 95 / 50 20 20 30
Hobbs 74 100 74 102 / 20 0 0 0
Marfa 65 96 65 99 / 30 10 10 30
Midland Intl Airport 77 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 78 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 78 105 77 107 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
756 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool late June night tonight.
-Pattern remains active, especially from late week into early next
week, with yet more rounds of showers and storms
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging over the
Rockies and troffing over eastern Canada into the adjacent U.S.,
resulting in nw flow into the Great Lakes. Shortwave that was over
southern Saskatchewan 24hrs ago is over northern Lower MI. Shra
associated with this feature spread across Upper MI this morning,
but diminished dramatically while doing so. Heaviest rainfall
occurred over portions of the Keweenaw, CMX received 0.48 inches.
Where sun dominated the morning, shra have developed in ne WI, and
some of these -shra are affecting portions of southern Menominee
County. In the wake of the shortwave, it has been a cool aftn with
considerable low cloudiness across the w and n central. Clouds are
slowly lifting and showing some signs of scattering out, but cloud
cover extends across the lake into ne MN/and northern Ontario where
cloud cover is taking on a decidedly more diurnal cellular look.
Current temps range only from the low/mid 50s w and n to the upper
60s F s central where more sun has occurred today.
Expect some thinning out of clouds for the rest of the aftn. Despite
the more cellular look of the clouds upstream of the lake, the
considerable coverage suggests that these clouds are not likely to
completely dissipate tonight, leading to increased uncertainty in
min temps. With center of high pres shifting se to northern MN/nw WI
by sunrise, winds will become light to calm. Precipitable water also
falls to 50-60pct of normal, aiding radiational cooling potential.
Leaned toward the lower side of avbl guidance, which puts min temps
down into the upper 30s F at traditional cold spots interior w.
Given the cloud cover uncertainty and wet soils that dampen
radiational cooling, seems highly unlikely that it would be even
colder to support patchy frost development. If more cloudiness hangs
on tonight, min temps will easily be at least 5 degrees higher.
Otherwise, expect min temps tonight to range thru the 40s F.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a
ridge over the plains and a trough in the ern U.S. 12z Thu.
Troughing moves into the northern Rockies 00z Fri and upper ridging
into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. Troughing moves into the upper
Great Lakes 12z Sat. Dry weather will continue into Thu night before
pcpn overspreads the area on Fri into Fri night and lasts into Sat.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the
lower Great Lakes region 12z Sun with a trough on the west coast and
a ridge over the Rockies. The west coast trough moves into the
Rockies 12z Mon with the ridge over the upper Great Lakes. This
trough quickly moves into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Tue which
then lingers into Wed. Temperatures will go from below normal on
Sunday to near normal by Wednesday. Pcpn comes back in for Mon
afternoon into Tue night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 756 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
VFR conditions have returned to all TAF sites and will remain
there for the duration of the TAF period with the area under high
pressure. Northerly winds will be in the 6 to 11 kt range.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Winds stay below 20 knots into Fri morning and switch to the south
by then. A weakening low pressure tracking through the Upper Great
Lakes early this weekend will allow for s-se gusts 20-25 kt Friday
over mainly the east half ahead of the front and then nw gusts 20-25
kt behind the cold frontal passage on Saturday before building high
pressure returns Sunday and ushers in lighter winds into Monday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
955 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
The main change for the evening update will be to adjust PoP/Wx
grids to match current radar trends. Overall, the forecast is in
good shape, but PoPs will be raised where precip is ongoing and is
expected to move in th enext few hours. We should see a decreasing
trend to shower coverage and intensity, with no severe storms
expected. A few isolated wind gusts up to 40 mph may be possible
with outflow boundaries. The loss of heating and the lack of shear
will favor weakening convection. A few tweaks to hourly
temp/dewpoints will be made as well, but no major changes are
needed. Tomorrow`s rain chances will be focused mainly in the
southern half of the area, closer to the surface front/trough that
will be moving through tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Key Messages:
1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected through Thursday. A
few strong storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with
wind damage being the main threat.
2. Slightly cooler tomorrow, but still near normal temperatures.
Discussion:
A weak upper level trough and associated cold front will swing
down from the northwest and into our area this evening. Latest
HRRR runs show isolated to scattered showers and storms developing
between 4 PM and 5 PM across the Cumberland Plateau, east TN
mountains and southwest VA mountains. Some of the showers and
storms across the plateau will likely drift down into valley
locations this evening. With marginal instability and very weak
shear in place, a few strong storms are possible. With dry air in
place from the surface to the midlevels, the main threat will be
damaging winds.
As we go further into the evening/overnight hours, additional showers
and storms will move in from the west. This is as forcing becomes
more favorable with the arrival of the trough. However, chances
for strong storms become less favorable during this time as
instability will be lower compared to pre-sunset hours.
Most areas will see little to no precip. However, any location
that receives a thunderstorm could see a quick 0.25 inches to 0.5
inches.
We will likely see a lull in the precip early tomorrow morning.
Then, as we begin to destabilize with daytime heating, see an
uptick in shower and storm development Thursday afternoon. The
best chance of seeing any precip will generally be from I-40 and
southward, which is closer to where the better forcing will be.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Key Messages:
1. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with
highest chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
2. Drier next week with ridge building across the region. Signals
for hot weather returning.
Discussion:
Shortwave trough on Thursday will flatten the ridge across the
Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians for Friday and into the
weekend. A stronger shortwave trough will move eastward across the
Great Lakes over the weekend with a cold front moving southeastward
towards our region on Sunday. Ahead of this front, diurnal
convection will be possible on Friday and Saturday, mainly across
the higher elevations. By Sunday, more widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of this cold front. Model guidance
indicates MLCAPE values on Sunday afternoon expected to be in the
1500 to 2000 J/Kg range with weak bulk shear of 15 to 20 kt. This
will favor the possibility of some stronger storms, including strong
wind gusts, but the overall severe weather risk isolated and low.
The primary risks this weekend (mainly Sunday) will be related to
damaging winds and the potential of flash flooding due to heavy
rainfall rates as PW values rise into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range
ahead of the front.
Behind this front, somewhat cooler and drier air is expected early
next week. However, ridging builds back in mid-week with a warming
temperature trend on Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in above normal
temperatures once again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to move into the TN
Valley this evening, with the highest chances at TRI and TYS,
where TEMPOs will be included for MVFR conditions at TS, and a
lower chance at CHA. The front will move through around midnight,
shifting winds to NW. An MVFR ceiling is expected to develop
behind the front late in the night and tomorrow morning, lifting
in the late morning. Additional showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon in the southern half of the area, with scattered
coverage at best leading to PROB30s in the TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 99 73 89 73 / 20 40 50 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 71 89 71 / 20 50 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 96 70 88 70 / 20 60 30 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 94 68 87 67 / 30 50 50 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...DGS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
415 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of drying conditions will carry through the end of the week
with rain chances decreasing to near zero across south-central
Arizona by Friday. Moisture and subsequent rain chances begin to
increase into next week. Above normal temperatures will persist
through at least early next week with lower desert highs approaching
or exceeding 110 degrees each day, especially in some of the
typically hotter locales.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current mid-level wv imagery reveals the center of a subtropical
high pressure system approximately over southern New Mexico near the
international border, with abundant moisture in place over the four
corners region and extending south. RAP analysis shows PWATs over
the region ranging from 1.4-1.9" as of late this morning, but these
values will be on the decline today through late Friday/early
Saturday, as a strong trough currently off the Pacific Northwest
Coast begins to push onshore, enhances southwesterly flow, and
brings drier air aloft over the Desert Southwest.
With abundant moisture in place over much of Arizona and the
remnants of an MCV near Flagstaff, convective activity was already
ramping up late this morning over the Mogollon Rim/Central AZ high
terrain and is expected to continue through much of the afternoon.
As South-Central AZ is in the wake of this MCV, subsidence aloft
should provide a sufficient cap to thunderstorm development over the
lower deserts late this afternoon/this evening (less than 10% chance
for measurable rainfall over the lower deserts), but chances for
thunderstorms over the high terrain to the north/east of Phoenix
remain around 10-20%. The primary hazards associated with any
thunderstorms today will be lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and
gusty outflow winds (HREF indicates a 10% probability for gusts in
excess of 35 mph for portions of northern and far eastern Maricopa
County). Forecast highs for this afternoon range mostly from 107-112
degrees across the lower deserts.
As mentioned previously, the trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast
will have a significant influence on moisture over the Desert
Southwest through early this weekend as it moves onshore and passes
to the north early Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow will act to
scour out mid level moisture and eventually some low level moisture,
leading to ensemble mean PWATs dropping as low as 0.9-1.3" across
Southern AZ. As drier air settles in from west to east over the next
several days, chances for rain decrease as well. Rain chances will
essentially come to an end starting Thursday with only slight
chances remaining over far eastern and northern Arizona. Friday is
still expected to be our driest day. By Saturday, ridging will begin
to build back over the region from the east, with southeasterly flow
re-establishing over the southeastern corner of the state. GEFS/ENS
model soundings depict weak southerly/southeasterly flow by Sunday
over South-Central AZ, with moisture beginning to creep back into
the region and rain chances increasing within our eastern CWA.
Ensemble mean PWATs increase back up to the 1.5-1.75" range by
Monday, and this moisture is expected to linger through the middle
of next week, leading to daily chances for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms mostly over the high terrain (30-50%) and potentially
making it into the South-Central AZ lower deserts (10-30%).
Forecast temperatures for the rest of the week and even through
early next week vary only a few degrees day to day. Above normal
temperatures of 3-5 degrees are expected nearly every day with lower
desert highs mostly topping out between 106-112 degrees each day.
Despite these readings falling into a Moderate HeatRisk category,
the heat will still be dangerous to those most vulnerable and to
those that underestimate the heat. The hottest day is likely to fall
on Sunday as the sub-tropical high strengthens over the weekend,
despite it already shifting eastward away from the region. Forecast
highs Sunday are currently between 107-113 degrees across the South-
Central Arizona lower deserts to 108-115 degrees across the western
deserts. The latest NBM forecast temperatures Sunday do present some
localized areas of Major HeatRisk, so Excessive Heat headlines may
eventually be needed for small portions of the area. Going through
the first half of next week, the increased moisture and monsoon
activity along with lowering heights aloft should allow for
temperatures to attempt to cool off closer to normal readings.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major weather issues should affect the Phoenix terminals through
Thursday afternoon under mostly clear skies as reduced thunderstorm
activity in the region significantly reduces the chances for aviation
impacts. Probabilities for outflow winds descending south into the
metro are still only around 10% with chances greatest at KSDL/KDVT,
while storm chances are under 5%. West winds should prevail well
into the overnight with the typical switch to easterly only probable
at KIWA. In fact, winds at KPHX may only become light and variable
for a few hours after sunrise before reverting back to westerly.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather concerns will exist through Thursday afternoon under only
a FEW occasional mid/high clouds. Winds should vary between SE and
SW through the period with afternoon/early evening gusts 20-25kt
common at KBLH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather pattern through the rest of the week will allow for
drying conditions and much lower chances for rain. Isolated
thunderstorm chances today are expected to be limited to the higher
terrain north and east of Phoenix before chances basically come to
an end starting Thursday. MinRHs will lower back into the teens
across the lower deserts by Thursday, while overnight recoveries
remain good at 35-50%. Winds will be fairly light today with some
periodic afternoon breeziness, before increasing more on Thursday
with afternoon gusts commonly reaching 20 mph. Gusts Thursday
evening for portions of western Imperial County and JTNP could reach
upwards of 30 mph and locally up to 40 mph for several hours. The
dry conditions with virtually no chances for rain should persist
through Saturday before moisture returns Sunday, increasing
humidities and potentially bringing back chances for thunderstorms
across south- central and eastern Arizona. Temperatures through the
period are expected to average several degrees above normal.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Whittock
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
820 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Precipitation chances will dwindle through Friday as our
monsoonal weather pattern shifts east. Meanwhile...breezy winds
return and hot temperatures persist heading into the next work week.
&&
.UPDATE...Convection through this evening has been fairly sparse
across most of the forecast area, mainly favoring northern Mohave
County and the southern Great Basin regions. With the loss of
daytime heating, convection across most of the region has
diminished, though a few fairly stout storms persist in central
Esmeralda County which are being sustained by some favorable jet
dynamics across central Nevada. These storms may persist a few more
hours but should diminish prior to midnight.
The current forecast covers this activity and the expected trends
well with no update necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today.
Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this
afternoon with widespread PWATs in excess of 1 inch across the
forecast area. That said, thunderstorm coverage will not be as
widespread as yesterday. Convection today will favor the higher
terrain of northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin in the
absence of synoptic forcing. CAPE values range from 500-750 J/kg in
these areas, though DCAPE approaches 1000 J/kg this afternoon in the
southwestern Great Basin - according to forecast HRRR soundings. As
such, the highest threat of flash flooding will remain across
northwestern Arizona and the highest threat of damaging wind gusts
will be across the southwestern Great Basin.
Afternoon temperatures today will range from 5 to 7 degrees above
seasonal averages. The monsoonal moisture in place has allowed
overnight low temperatures to remain fairly warm - with Las Vegas
low temperatures failing to drop below 90 degrees for the last 3
nights.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to dwindle on Thursday as a
shortwave originating from the Pacific Northwest ushers dry air into
the region. As the axis of this shortwave pushes through the Desert
Southwest, breezy southwest wind gusts will pick up Thursday and
Friday afternoons to between 25 and 35 mph. These winds coupled with
this dry air will increase fire danger each afternoon - particularly
along a strip from Barstow-Daggett through Las Vegas into St. George.
A zonal flow will set up aloft over the weekend. Additional
shortwave passages will result in breezy afternoons each day through
the weekend into the start of next week. Monsoonal moisture will ebb
and flow into Arizona, resulting in a fluctuation of PoPs for Mohave
County through the weekend. Meanwhile, heat remains a persistent
impact in the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will remain above-
average through the entire forecast period with HeatRisk remaining
"Moderate" or higher for desert valleys through the week and
weekend. Las Vegas remains on-track for hottest June on-record.
Current record hottest June is 2017 with an average temperature of
92.8 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southerly winds with a few gusts to
25kts are expected through early evening. Wind gusts should diminish
after sunset with a chance (30%) that winds could fall below 10kts
between 05Z and 09Z. Gusty south to southwest winds will redevelop
tomorrow morning, with gusts to 25kts likely after 19Z. VFR
conditions will prevail through tomorrow.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south-to-southwest winds with a few gusts to
25kts are expected at the Las Vegas and Colorado River TAF sites
this afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish overnight,
potentially falling to below 10kts at times, before increasing again
on Thursday. At KBIH, northerly winds will turn west to southwest
by late afternoon but will swing back to the north after sunset.
Winds at KDAG will favor a westerly direction through tomorrow,
with gusts approaching 30kts by tomorrow afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
over northwest Arizona and the higher terrain of the southern
Great Basin. This activity is not expected to impact any of the
regional TAF sites, but gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rainfall
obscuring terrain will be possible in and near storms that do
develop.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz
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