Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/27/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1037 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain/Storm Chances Return Early Friday and Continue for Friday and Friday Night. Probability for .1" of rain is 80-90% however, for 0.5" 30 to 60% with the highest toward DBQ. - Cooler Weekend On Tap, Temperatures 0 to 10 Degrees Below Normal For This Time Of Year. - Turning More Active as we Head into Early Next Week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Overview: Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed a 500mb trough from the Great Lakes southwest toward the southern Plains. A ridge was over the Rockies and the Four-Corners area. Another area of closed low pressure was heading toward the West Coast. A couple of large mesoscale convective systems were over the eastern Great Lakes/PA/NY and also from southern MO/MS/LA. Sporadic convection was noted throughout the ridge and ahead of the West Coast trough. Locally, we are under northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building in. Satellite imagery showed sunny to partly cloudy skies. Winds were brisk northwest with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s. Through Friday: A back-door cool front will move southwestward across parts of Wisconsin through tonight with surface high pressure building in. RAP forecast soundings show patchy low level moisture. With the MVFR ceilings upstream. Clouds should decrease after sunset, but will need to monitor any patchy low cloud development. Also, where areas are more clear, there is the potential for valley fog with the weak low level flow. With the drier airmass and short nights, any fog looks to be patchy. Thursday morning, return flow is on the increase on the western periphery of the high pressure system and the ridge aloft tries to build. Moisture transport is on the weaker side, however some 850mb moisture warm air advection will continue to produce clouds and a few sprinkles or a shower could occur Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The RAP/HRRR both show some activity in parts of the forecast area by 01Z,however do not agree on the area. Moisture transport increases across Minnesota after 06Z Thursday night into Friday, shifting eastward across the forecast area and tends to split north and south. Meanwhile a shortwave trough is forecast to flatten the ridge and move through the westerly flow. As a result, we see showers and thunderstorms become more widespread 80- 90%. At this time, the severe weather threat appears low. Forecast soundings show limited instability with MUCAPE of 250-500J/kg with weak mid level winds. 0-3km shear is substantial though. Should instability increase, the severe weather threat would be more elevated, thus as we approach Friday, we`ll need to watch this. The surface front lags the short wave, thus showers and thunderstorms continue into Friday night. The upper level trough swings through and tends to focus the storms north and south of the forecast area. Before the cold front clears the forecast area, some instability pushes through overnight, but the flow is more veered by then. The EC/Canadian/GEFS ensemble probability for .1" of rain is 80-90% however, for 0.5" 30 to 60% with the highest toward DBQ. The weekend into next week: Saturday, the upper level trough is digging through the Upper Mississippi Valley with surface high pressure building in the the west. Generally dry weather is forecast, however forecast soundings show a spotty shower cannot be ruled out with the heating during the afternoon/low level instability. Surface high pressure is forecast to be over the area Sunday. High temperatures Thursday through Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s to lower 80s, thus near to 10 degrees below normal. Active weather returns for early next week. A trough over the West Coast during the weekend heads toward the Upper Mississippi Valley for early next week. Southerly flow ahead of a couples of embedded shortwave troughs should bring sporadic thunderstorm activity to the forecast area through possible Tuesday afternoon. Warmer temperatures also return with highs in the 80s. && HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Several rivers fell below flood stage over the last 12 to 24 hours, but most of this water is still on route to the Mississippi River. The Mississippi River is expected to keep rising through the next 5 to 7 days depending on location and which rivers route into that particular location. Minor to moderate flood stages are expected from Lake City through Guttenberg. While official forecasts from the River Forecast Center do take into consideration all of the water that has already fallen and is on its way into the Mississippi River, it only takes the next 24-48 hours of forecast precipitation. Since the next chance of precipitation for the local area is not until Friday, this will not be accounted for in the official forecasts. At this time, rainfall expected for Friday (0.10-0.70") does not appear that it would substantially affect the Mississippi River forecast. The forecast rain on Friday will likely keep the river elevated beyond the next 7 to 10 days and the river may initially fall some before beginning to rise again as the additional rainfall flows downstream this weekend into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Main taf concerns is development of fog in low lying areas and river valleys overnight. High pressure builds into the region overnight and provides mostly clear skies/light winds overnight. With drier airmass over the area and light north wind aloft near the surface. This will inhibit widespread Mississippi River Valley fog. With confidence low on widespread valley fog development...have continued patchy fog...BCFG...at the LSE taf site. Wind direction switch around to a southerly direction Thursday afternoon...as high pressure moves east of the region. Wind speeds increase to around 10 knots Thursday afternoon/evening. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Zapotocny AVIATION...DTJ HYDROLOGY...JW/Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
853 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 835 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024 Well, a tricky forecast this afternoon and evening. Temperatures were quite hot again with a few places into the low 100s while most others were in the 90s. Thunderstorms did initiate in western Alabama with heating of the day and an approaching upper trough. Outflows from activity in Mississippi also aided in storm development. A few of these storms produced severe wind gusts over 60 mph and blowing trees down. Much drier and more stable air was over eastern Alabama, but the storms held on and many places did get rain and thunderstorms east. No additional severe weather is anticipated overnight, but more showers and storms are possible. A fine line of activity was indicated near Memphis this evening. This was near a surface cold front and a trough aloft. These features will swing into the area overnight and Thursday. Will continue the belief that there is an increased signal that the entire system will be slower to exit. This leads to better rain chances than initially thought. Lows will be near 70 overnight and highs 85 to 95 on Thursday. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024 Contrary to much of the 12Z guidance, a large coverage of showers and thunderstorms have already developed across much of central and eastern Mississippi and into western portions of central Alabama. Once the cu field began developing this morning, it didn`t take long for rain to start falling. This activity is being driven by a large increase in moisture associated with an approaching trough axis and cold front over the Midsouth region. There`s currently a moisture gradient over the area, and there`s still some drier air across the eastern half where dewpoints have once again mixed down into the lower to mid 60s. However, moisture will advect eastward with propagation of the trough, so expect further area-wide development of convection through the afternoon with the highest chance for rain focused generally along and west of I-65. This rain should give us some relief from the heat, but not soon enough as most areas have already reached the mid to upper 90s. Per RAP mesoanalysis, MUCAPE is around 3000-4000 J/kg in our west where dewpoints are in the lower 70s. While shear values are rather weak, some strong downbursts may produce damaging winds, and storms could also produce torrential downpours with PWATs around 2". There`s been an increasing signal of scattered showers and storms continuing overnight and into tomorrow as the cold front and strong PVA move southward into the area. Some hi-res models are even resolving an MCV-like feature over the area early tomorrow morning which would further support additional rain and thunderstorms. So luckily, the odds at receiving beneficial rain seem to be improving for the next 24 hours. The scattered to numerous showers and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the 80s tomorrow. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024 Most likely period of greater thunderstorm coverage during the long term will come over the weekend (especially Sunday), as the southern Plains upper ridge retreats just far enough west to allow a shortwave trough to come through our area. This shortwave passage is likely to be accompanied plenty of storms, and likely POPs seem justified. Beyond Sunday, a dry low level airmass briefly builds in before the upper ridge recenters itself over the southeast. This results in more mid/upper 90s degree heat, with a non-zero percent chance at triple digits. /61/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 835 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024 Convection is on the downswing this evening. But a cold front and upper trough approach overnight into Thursday. This will keep the showers and thunderstorms in the terminal forecast much of the period. After brief respite, expecting showers and thunderstorms to redevelop over the area. Additionally, lower clouds will be developing toward daybreak. Ceilings will drop to MVFR/IFR quickly around sunrise with showers and thunderstorms around. The ceilings do rise above criteria by 18z but the mention of convection remains. Winds generally stay light and variable throughout. Note: NIL was introduced at TCL for missing data. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture and chances for showers and storms increase across West Alabama through tonight, while RH values in East Alabama will still drop into the 25 to 35 percent range. Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday into the weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast. RH values will stay above 45 percent in most areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 88 69 92 / 30 40 10 40 Anniston 72 89 72 91 / 50 50 10 40 Birmingham 72 89 73 93 / 30 40 10 40 Tuscaloosa 71 88 72 92 / 40 40 10 30 Calera 73 89 73 93 / 30 50 10 40 Auburn 73 89 73 90 / 60 60 20 50 Montgomery 73 90 73 92 / 40 60 20 60 Troy 72 89 71 92 / 60 60 30 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...75
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
932 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening with the potential to become strong to severe. Large hail, strong winds, and flash flooding are the primary hazards today. - Another round of fairly widespread thunderstorms is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Latest GOES WV imagery shows mid to upper level cloud cover across central WY rounding the top of the ridge centered over the southwest CONUS. This upper level support will continue to move eastward ahead of the shortwave passage noted on latest RAP analysis near the CO/WY/UT border. Initial convective activity has begun over the higher terrain near the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges with latest GOES Day Cloud Phase Distinction showing clouds beginning to glaciate. Farther to the east over the South Laramie Range, initial Cu field that was present with little vertical development late this morning has since dissipated as RAP soundings and recent CSU research sounding northwest of Fort Collins continue to show a capping inversion in place with ~1000 J/kg available aloft. As better lift arrives from the west and low-levels continue to warm, expect increasing storm coverage across the Laramie Range by mid- afternoon and into this evening farther east. Taking a closer look at the latest observations, it appears the moisture boundary has made it west of the Laramie Range with KLAR reporting a 52F degree dew point and easterly winds. While the NAMNest is overdoing low-level moisture elsewhere across the CWA, the 12z cycle did bring this higher moisture west of the Laramie Range with additional storm development farther west than the remaining HREF members. As storms intensify along and east of the Laramie Range late this afternoon and approaching the NE panhandle early this evening, hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. CSU research sounding shows moist profiles with 1.05" PW suggesting efficient rain producing storms and potentially a limiting factor for large hail growth as no notable dry layers are present aloft. One area of concern will be along the I-80 corridor from Pine Bluffs through Sidney where 3-hr Flash Flood Guidance is around 1.5-2". && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 156 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 An active afternoon of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will transition to a couple of strong to even severe thunderstorms by this evening. Discrete thunderstorms will transition to a line segment of thunderstorms by the time it reaches the western NE Panhandle, which will primarily be a wind threat. Convection will wind down late tonight across the NE Panhandle leaving a moist and conditionally unstable air mass in its wake. Dew points will be in the 50s and 60s for most of our cwa by early Thursday morning. A strong atmospheric cap will be in place by 12z Thursday, but the warm air aloft will mix quickly down to the surface by midday Thursday. PWATs will be in the 90th percentile and higher for our cwa. Temperatures will surge quickly, allowing us to achieve our convective Temperature easily, especially east of the Laramie Range. Daytime highs in the 80s and 90s are favored. It will be downright muggy for areas east of the Laramie Range. LCL bases are modeled to be near 700mb for areas along and east of the WY/NE state line from 18z onwards, and from 550-650mb in southeast WY. This translates to inverted-V sounding profiles for almost all of our cwa. Bulk wind shear measured from the SFC-6km doesn`t really look appreciable until after 0Z for our eastern forecast zones in the NE Panhandle. Skinny MUCAPE profiles of 1000+ J/kg for southeast WY will be prevalent, leaning towards slow-moving convection in SE WY early on with the potential for heavy downpours. The potential for a wet microburst or two in SE WY will possible Thursday afternoon. For the NE Panhandle, a stronger signal for more organized convection is favored. Warmer surface temperatures, better instability, lapse rates becoming more steep as colder air aloft arrives late, and wind shear will all combine for severe weather becoming more favored. This lines up with the Day 2 SPC Severe Risk outlook of Slight/Enhanced in western NE. All modes of severe weather will be possible in our furthest east zones of the NE Panhandle, with areas of highest confidence in severe weather in Box Butte, Cheyenne, Dawes, and Morrill County in the NE Panhandle. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 415 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cooler weekend is expected with temperatures quickly ramping by up by Monday afternoon. Upper-level troughing is progged to be over northern Montana and southern Canada Friday morning, with strong southwesterly flow out ahead. Flow down at 700mb will be more westerly as the 700mb low passes north of the region across Montana and North Dakota. 700mb heights will tighten briefly across the region, leading to a short period with elevated wind potential, especially in locations west of the Laramie Range. These winds will quickly be decreased as the attendant cold front sweeps across the region, with gusty northwesterly winds likely after the passage. The frontal passage looks to be mostly dry, as moisture values are not overly impressive across southeast Wyoming. A better chance for precipitation will be across the Panhandle where dewpoints increase into the 50s ahead of the cold front. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper-70s west of the Laramie Range and upper-70s to upper- 80s east of the Laramie Range. Saturday will be a few degrees cooler behind the passing cold front. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s to low-80s west of the Laramie Range and mid-70s to low-80s east of the Laramie Range. Renewed warm air advection across western portions of the CWA will increase temperatures for Saturday, despite the cold frontal passage the day before. 700mb temperatures increase back into the 15-17C range west of the Laramie Range, further promoting these warmer temperatures. Zonal upper-level flow will return for Saturday as the upper-level trough pushes off to the east and a ridge begins to build over the central CONUS once more. With the zonal flow expected Saturday, could see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms as disturbances push through the upper-level flow. Upper-level ridging returns in full for the CWA on Sunday, with 700mb temperatures increasing into the 16-18C range throughout the day. Southerly flow at the surface will enhance the already warm temperatures during the day, with highs expected to be in the upper- 80s to low-90s west of the Laramie Range and low- to upper-90s east of the Laramie Range. A moisture fetch from the Gulf of Mexico will be advected into the region with the strong southerly flow, leading to potentially slightly muggy conditions for the Panhandle and potentially southeast Wyoming. With additional moisture being advected into the region, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon Sunday with additional support from daytime heating. The remaining long term looks to be very warm again, with highs consistently in the upper-80s and 90s across the region. The 4th of July looks to be rather toasty, with the GFS and ECMWF suggesting 700mb temperatures to approach 20C! This would likely result in surface temperatures approaching 95F or higher for the Cheyenne area. However, this is still over a week out at this time. Attention will need to be paid to how warm the holiday will be and if that heat could turn dangerous. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 928 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 West flow aloft will continue. Wyoming TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 8000 to 12000 feet will prevail, with areas of fog at Cheyenne reducing visibilities to 2 to 4 miles and ceilings to 1500 feet until 15Z. Winds will gust to 33 knots at all terminals from 15Z to 00Z. Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds near 9000 feet will prevail. Winds will gust to 25 knots at Chadron and Alliance until 09Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...MB SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
840 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Two rounds of storms, which are marginally severe, are expected to enter Kansas from Colorado Wednesday and late Wednesday night. - Thursday through Saturday, a broad pattern favorable for MCSs will take hold providing multiple rounds for storm systems. - The end of the period after the weekend will see the previous pattern clear with the potential (>65% via ensembles) of 100F temperatures returning to the forecast area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 KDDC radar, lightning detection networks, and infrared satellite imagery indicate weakening thunderstorms limping into far SW KS (Morton county and vicinity) as of 830 pm. Storms earlier produced outflow wind gusts near 60 mph at Springfield, Baca county Colorado. The various parameters for thunderstorm maintenance across SW KS are quite weak, but not completely inhibitive, such that sub severe showers and thunderstorms are forecast by the models to phase eastward through sunrise Thursday. Activity is already redeveloping on the older activity outflow, and this process of maintenance is expected to continue. Retained pops in the chance category, with a midlevel cloud deck and scattered rain showers expected early Thursday morning. Instability will remain limited, with CAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg, so only some locally heavier rainfall and embedded lightning is expected. 18z NAM shows the shortwave responsible for the showers over SW KS about 10 am, then moving eastward into eastern Kansas Thursday afternoon. Strong lee troughing will reestablish over eastern Colorado, supporting a traditionally windy western Kansas day, with south winds averaging 20-30 mph with higher gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A large upper-level ridge continues to dominate the pattern. Despite this, Wednesday into Thursday will feature two rounds of precipitation chances (25% and 55% from ensembles respectively). CAMs have initiation around 20Z located approximately at the CO/OK/NM border. The 12Z NAM place large amounts of CVA and vertical velocity ahead of those storms in far SE Colorado into SW Kansas. As the mid- level support combats the unfavorable conditions aloft, CAMs produce various solutions for the storms as they enter Kansas. The HRRR shows the storms struggling to make it past the border while the NAMNST, HRW FV3, and HRW WRF- NSSL all has storms clipping the far SW couple counties. The only concurrence the models hold has been a consistent downward trend of these storms the last couple days. CAPE values >2000 J/kg and effective shear values >40 knots would be sufficient in supporting brief severe storm development/maintenance. DCAPE values nearing 2000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates of 9.5 C/km contribute to winds being the primary threat. However, the associated severe potential is quite limited due to the lifespan of the storms after entering the forecast area. The second round of storms appear more robust, but similar disagreement exists between CAMs; around 5Z, storms of various modes and strengths are shown to enter west central Kansas. Supple PWATs of >1.5 inches shown on NAMNST forecast soundings will feed these storms well into the morning as it moves across our northern zones. The most organized parts of this system create the best chance (>55% from ensembles) of precipitation in the forecast area through the interstate 70 corridor. Less organized convection could disperse across the entire forecast area as ensembles hold a >10% chance for the entire area. Into Thursday after the storm system moves trough, an associated winds shift will have south winds prevail during the day. Around 22Z yet another round of precipitation is expected to move through. This MCS signal is tracked by ensembles to follow a similar path as the previous round of precipitation. North of highway 56 represents a meaningful chance (>33%) for accumulating precipitation and the best chance (>50) northwest of the Hays to Garden City axis. Precipitation means from the ensembles struggle to reach 0.25 inches of accumulation due to the speed of the system and fairly limited coverage. Despite this, forecast soundings have notable amounts of instability (CAPE of 2500 J/kg) and moisture (70F dewpoints) that create a severe threat where the CAP can be overcome. Friday will see temperatures rise as ensembles return 100F temperatures to our southeastern zones, however the latest trends have pulled back the surface heating and lingering outflow from the previous MCS could contribute in temperatures struggling to reach the 100F mark. Saturday night has yet another MCS signal across ensembles, but the broad area of lower probabilities put pause in the exact timing and location of this system. The rest of the forecast currently looks to provide reprieve from the MCS abundant pattern. Near the end of the forecast period into Monday and Tuesday, ensembles have +100F temperatures returning without MCS interference. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Excellent flying weather will continue through at least 06z Thu, with VFR/SKC and light E/SE winds. Model consensus is scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into SW KS during the 06-12z Thu time range, along with an increase in associated midlevel cloud decks. Kept TAFs simple for now with VCTS/CB mentions, pending radar trends tonight. Scattered rain showers are expected to be in progress around 12z Thu, with midlevel clouds, but still with VFR prevailing. After 15z Thu, south winds will increase at all airports gusting to near 30 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Turner DISCUSSION...KJohnson AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Thursday Night/ The earlier cluster of showers and storms has officially exited our Central Texas counties as of 5 PM, leaving behind generally hot afternoon conditions for most. Those in East Texas that were lucky enough to experience the rain and cloud cover only observed high temperatures in the low 90s, while elsewhere peaked in the mid 90s to just above 100 degrees. Heat indices generally spiked near/above 105 degrees, with Sherman taking the unwanted trophy for highest heat index of 115. A weak surface cold front that currently draped across Southern Oklahoma and Arkansas will continue southward as its attached upper shortwave trough enters the Deep South. As the front inches closer to the Red River, it will become a focusing point for renewed development of isolated-scattered showers and storms as it pushes into North Texas. Additionally, a left-over N-S oriented stationary outflow boundary can be seen on radar bisecting Dallas County, which will serve as another area to watch for development this evening. We`re already starting to see convective development just to the north of/along the Red River as of 6:30 PM, and this will persist through the overnight. RAP analysis in this area shows some steeper lapse rates and increased MUCAPE, promoting the potential for strong to marginally severe storms. Strong downburst winds and small hail may accompany the more robust cells alongside an overall lightning risk. Precipitation should diminish by early tomorrow morning, leaving behind overall warm and humid conditions across the region. Expect Thursday morning lows in the 70s and low 80s. Going into Thursday afternoon, the front will continue to be draped NW to SE across North Texas. Diurnal heating will allow for isolated showers and storms once again along and ahead of the stalled front, mainly in western North Texas and across Central Texas. The same threats of gusty downburst winds and small hail will persist with the stronger storms. Unfortunately, most will remain dry through the short term period, with afternoon temperatures peaking in the mid 90s to around 103 outside of any precipitation. Humid conditions will continue to push heat indices above the air temperature, generally peaking between triple digits to just above 110. Once again, storms will dissipate over the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Another warm overnight is expected with Friday morning low temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. With oppressive summer heat continuing, the Heat Advisory will remain in effect through at least 7 PM Thursday for all of North and Central Texas, and will likely continue to be extended on a day by day basis. The big question is whether some counties will meet the need for an Excessive Heat Warning. Our criteria for an EHW is a high of at least 105 and/or a peak heat index of at least 110 for two consecutive days. Today, a few observation sites met/exceeded a heat index of 110, mainly near/along the I-35 corridor in North Texas. Tomorrow, heat index near/higher than 110 is expected to be observed along I-35 near and south of the Metroplex. Because of the variation of the locations and not meeting the two day criteria, will not be upgrading any county to an Excessive Heat Warning at this time. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ /Friday Through Independence Day/ Mid-level ridging will continue to bake North and Central Texas into early July. The anticyclone will gradually reposition itself from its current location over the Desert Southwest into the Southeast U.S. by the middle of next week. Our 500mb heights will peak during the weekend into early next week as the dome transits the region, the cumulative heat yielding the highest temperatures toward the end of that period (Monday and Tuesday). This will mean clear nights and partly cloudy days as rich Gulf moisture lifts into a cumulus field. DFW`s dew point soared to 77F during the daylight hours of this morning, just one degree shy of the record value for June 26. Thankfully, our daily max and min dew points will gradually decrease over the next several days as the heat builds and the mixing depth steadily increases. After many days with 70F+ dew points at peak heating, much of the region will see dew point values mix out into the 60s next week. That`s not dry by any means, but max heat index values (while still within Heat Advisory criteria) will be less likely to reach 110 despite the hottest temperatures so far this year. The only decent chance for rain during the period will be Sunday across portions of Northeast Texas. A shortwave will skirt the Canadian border late in the week, sending a cold front deep into the Southern Plains. But the intensity of the ridge will slow its progress and prevent any associated precipitation from impacting areas beyond the low chances within the Ark-La-Tex. By July 4, North and Central Texas will be on the western periphery of the ridge. While heights will still be indicative of subsidence, the sea breeze may activate to our south, and another cold front to our north could disrupt holiday festivities in Oklahoma. Both areas will bear watching for potential impacts within our region. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ D10: A weak cold front will move into North Texas tonight, allowing for isolated showers and storms across portions of North and East Texas. The chance of direct impacts to the terminals are low as coverage will remain sparse, so have continued with a VCTS at all D10 sites from 03-06Z this evening. While VFR will persist, southerly winds will back to the east overnight as the front moves closer, with speeds around 10 kts or less persisting through the rest of the period. ACT: Southerly winds will persist through tomorrow morning, before veering west-southwest. A weak front will stall to the north and east of ACT tomorrow, keeping winds from turning northerly. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the late afternoon hours across portions of the Big Country and Central Texas tomorrow, and have introduced a VCTS at ACT starting at 21Z. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 99 81 100 81 / 20 0 0 0 0 Waco 79 99 79 98 78 / 10 20 10 0 0 Paris 75 94 74 97 79 / 20 0 0 0 0 Denton 79 98 79 102 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 McKinney 79 96 79 99 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dallas 80 99 81 100 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 95 77 97 78 / 20 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 80 97 79 99 80 / 10 5 0 0 0 Temple 79 99 78 98 78 / 5 20 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 101 79 101 79 / 5 20 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1101 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move through the region along a cold front tonight...bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler and drier air will begin to filter in on Thursday with a few afternoon showers again possible. A cool night is expected Thursday night with seasonably cool and dry conditions for the day on Friday. Unsettled weather returns to the region for this weekend with additional showers and thunderstorms expected as low pressure moves north of New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 11pm Update...Just some minor refinements to PoPs as the evening progresses. Showers have begun to push into north and western NH. Short term focus has been monitoring strong MCS moving into southern New England and how this tracks overnight. Mesoanalysis proves little instability left over from the daytime, and just some pockets of 200-400 j/kg of MUCAPE elevated. This won`t be near enough to sustain the ongoing damaging wind event to the south as the forcing arrives in southern NH over the next few hours. Biggest change was to increase rain and thunder chances for far SE NH as this activity clips this area on its way out to the GoME. 8pm Update...Not many changes from the day crew. Despite evening convection across MA setting up north of 12z HREF guidance, believe this activity pushes east before sfc low pushes across NH/ME tonight. RAP soundings in southern NH keep low levels dry through midnight, but upper level saturation should allow showers to reach surface. With low but nonzero MUCAPE overnight for the mountains and then towards the Midcoast, have continued thunder chances here overnight. Previous Discussion... High Impact Weather Potential: Some low probabilities for excessive rainfall across southern areas as well as a severe thunderstorm risk for far SW New Hampshire. Pattern: A potent shortwave trough can be seen moving through the Great Lakes region early this afternoon as a surface cold front drops toward northern New England. This shortwave will help spawn low pressure development along the front as it slows while passing overhead. Thus...forecast concerns will center around shower and thunderstorms associated with this low and more specifically 1) where heavy rainfall may occur and 2) whether there is any severe threat with the thunderstorm activity. Through this evening: Initial batch of showers is passing east of the area with a sprinkle or two in it/s wake. While llevel cloud cover will wane through this evening...high cloudiness will continue to increase as convection develops across NY/PA. 8pm temperatures will remain warm...only falling to the 70s to around 80. Tonight: Overall trend over the past 24 hours has been to lower the QPF in the mesoscale guidance suite...with low pressure riding just south of the forecast area overnight as the cold front makes it to the coast before the surface low arrives. The net result is that any surface-based instability remains south and east of the forecast area overnight. There is a small amount of elevated instability north of the cold front...so a few rumbles can/t be ruled out...but feel that the severe convective threat will be confined to areas south of the CWA. With more significant convection south of the area...the majority of our rainfall overnight will be tied to QG forcing associated with mid level shortwave and the developing surface low. This favors more light-moderate rainfall rates with the heaviest amounts potentially towards the midcoast where some weak deformation will have the chance to develop depending on how quickly the surface low spins up. Temperatures will remain generally mild overnight as more significant cold air advection holds off until daytime Thursday. Therefore...expect lows in the 50s in the mountains and the 60s to the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Pattern: Shortwave trough over the eastern portion of the forecast area will move east of the region with a secondary shortwave and associated trough dropping through the region. Forecast focus will be on departing morning precipitation...any shower/storm potential with the secondary trough...and then cooler temperatures Thursday night. Thursday: With low pressure pulling northeast of the forecast area and initial surface cold front offshore...could see a few residual showers across the Midcoast to start the day before attention turns towards a secondary trough that will drop through the region during the day with very weak height mid level height falls continuing as a secondary shortwave passes north of New England. While the overall profile will be drying through the day...some modest moisture pooling ahead of the secondary trough should allow for a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE to develop ahead of the trough. Thus...expect some afternoon showers to develop with a few rumbles of thunder possible though instability appears too weak to support a severe threat. T8s will have fallen a few degrees C since Wednesday...though downslope assistance will allow southern NH/southwestern ME to push into the lower 80s again while highs in the 70s with gradually decreasing dewpoints are expected elsewhere. Thursday Night: Canadian high pressure helps drive a continental polar airmass into the region Thursday night with PWATs falling below 0.25". Thus...a quieter and much cooler night is in store. Northerly 1000 mb geostrophic winds remain in the 20-30kt range overnight which should keep all but the deepest valleys coupled. Some of the statistical guidance drops the northern valleys /BML- HIE/ just below the 40F mark. Given the remaining winds...this may be a bit too low...but do expect lows in the lower 40s in the mountains with lows south of the mountains in the mid 40s to lower 50s...warmest in the urban centers. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A quiet start to the long term before a little more active weather pattern returns. On Friday high pressure will be centered over New England resulting in mainly clear as seasonable conditions. Friday Night into Saturday the high will drift offshore as low pressure over the upper Great Lakes pushes east. A warm front followed by a cold front that are associated with this low will cross the area later Saturday Afternoon and Night. This will result in increasing clouds during the day on Saturday with rain developing during the afternoon over NH...reaching western Maine by late afternoon or early evening. Rain will continue into the overnight hours of Saturday Night before tapering to showers by daybreak from west to east. With an upper level trough approaching the area on Sunday scattered instability showers and thunder showers will be possible. This upper level trough will cross the area on Monday meaning a few showers may linger on Monday although the bulk of the day should be dry. As the upper level trough reaches the Gulf of Maine there are indications that low pressure forms. Right now the models have this east of the area allowing high pressure over the Ohio Valley to slowly build east for Tuesday into Wednesday. As long as the low just east of the area does not form further west, we will see a return of dry and seasonable conditions for Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term... Summary: Low pressure moves through the region tonight along a cold front with showers and a few thunderstorms. Partial clearing is expected on Thursday before a few afternoon showers develop. High pressure builds toward the area Thursday night with clearing skies. Restrictions: VFR ATTM with conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in SHRA and fog after midnight. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible. Improvement to VFR occurs on Thursday with VFR Thursday night. Winds: West southwest winds 10g15kts through this evening will weaken to 5kts or less overnight before strengthening to 8G14kts from the west Thursday. Winds shift to the northwest 5-10kts Thursday night. LLWS: LLWS is not expected through Thursday night. Lightning: There is a low potential for lightning through 19Z at AUG/RKD. Tonight...an isolated thunderstorm is possible...esp for southern NH and southwestern ME. Thursday afternoon, an isolated thunderstorm is again possible. Long Term... VFR conditions Friday into Saturday morning. IFR conditions in developing rain late Saturday over NH overspreading western Maine Saturday evening and continuing Saturday night. MVFR with areas of IFR in showers on Sunday as a upper level trough crosses the area. MVFR to VFR conditions return on Monday as High pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley. && .MARINE... Short Term...Southerly winds will weaken tonight as a cold front settles over the waters. Light winds become southwesterly on Thursday before shifting northwest and strengthening Thursday night. Long Term...Wind and waves to remain below SCA conditions through Saturday Afternoon. A frontal system crossing the waters Saturday Night and Sunday will result in SCA Winds and Waves with areas of rain. Conditions to fall below SCA levels Sunday Night and Monday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Arnott/Cornwell SHORT TERM...Arnott LONG TERM...Lulofs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
601 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A bit more unsettled weather pattern to end the work week, with subtle shortwave trough and associated slow MCS over northeast TX and northwest LA this afternoon which models are pretty consistent with dissipating this evening. However, HRRR and GFS both support some new development along residual outflow overnight near east- central TX which would have a south-southwest propagation component into some of our eastern counties Thursday morning. While this will dissipate through the day tomorrow, there should be some persistent mid/high clouds in its wake. So while the afternoon will once again be another hot one for late June, not as confident on max heat indicies above 108f with these lingering MCS affects. Will opt to hold off on a heat advisory for now, however with late day sun we could still get advisory levels once again for a few hours later in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The primary concern in the extended period continues to surround the potential for excessive heat, while we also continue to monitor for the possibility of scattered thunderstorms to develop over the course of the weekend and into the early part of next week. The contributing synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged, with a dominant midlevel ridge building to approximately 597-98 dam by the end of the weekend. With 850mb temps warming to around 22 degC per the most recent deterministic model runs, high temperatures will approach the upper 90s for most of the area and even perhaps will break into the triple digits for a few locations through Tuesday. With dew points remaining situated in the mid to upper 70s, maximum apparent temperatures look to approach 110 each day for much of the area. This, combined with max WBGT values of 90-91 degF, will likely require the issuance of additional heat advisories throughout much of the period. With an array of outdoor events underway over the course of the weekend, heat safety precautions will be paramount. Taking preventative measures like staying hydrated and avoiding strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day could very well be the difference between a pleasant weekend and a heat-related illness. While heat stands out as the primary forecast concern, things may become slightly complicated by the potential for daily isolated thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the aforementioned ridge, our positioning on its eastern peripheral will allow a few weak pockets of shortwave energy to traverse the ridge, supplying enough PVA to provide an impetus for afternoon convection. This, combined with robust heating and the daily propagation of the sea/bay breeze, will keep ~20-30% PoPs in the forecast with the greatest rainfall potential coming on Sunday and Monday. Another quick thing to note is the continued elevated low temperatures (high 70s to low 80s) each night across the area; these elevated lows can inhibit recovery from daytime heat stress and thus pose a greater risk for heat-related illnesses in subsequent hot days. As such, considering heat safety precautions will remain key. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Current scattered shra/tsra activity between IAH and the coast should gradually diminish over the next few hours while south to southeast winds become lighter and more variable. It`s worth mentioning that a weak outflow boundary is moving south through Montgomery County and is resulting in a brief period of north to northeast winds in its wake. It`s possible that areas as far south IAH, HOU, and SGR could experience a brief north to northeast wind shift this evening before going more light and variable. Low end VFR is expected tonight into tomorrow morning. Areas of occasional MVFR cannot be ruled out. Winds tomorrow start southwest before becoming south to southeast by afternoon. Scattered shra/tsra possible again tomorrow. But the best chance of rain is currently projected to be east of I-45. Still, we cannot rule out having to add VCSH or VCTS in future updates. In addition, we continue to monitor the potential for overnight shra/tsra. However, guidance has backed off on that prospect. Therefore, overnight VCSH was removed from the TAFs for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Generally benign marine conditions are expected for the foreseeable future as light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will be a chance for thunderstorms each day, but storm coverage should generally remain isolated. Conditions are likely to remain below advisory thresholds for the full period, aside from any brief strong wind gusts associated with developing storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 97 76 98 / 10 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 79 97 78 96 / 20 20 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>213-226-227. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Evans LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Self MARINE...Cady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/northern Chihuahua this afternoon, resulting in a warm afternoon of triple- digit highs most locations. Convection that developed overnight has mostly diminished, but the HRRR redevelops convection early this afternoon over the higher terrain west of the Pecos, where it`s needed most. Despite decent low level moisture out there, models are pretty penurious on QPF, but beggars can`t be choosers, and we`ll take what we can get. This activity will slowly diminish overnight w/loss of daytime heating. Despite a relatively decrepit LLJ (~ 25 kts), partly cloudy skies will retard radiational cooling, for another night of unseasonably warm lows ~ 8-10 F above normal. Overnight, an upper trough is forecast to make landfall in the PacNW, and will begin flattening the ridge Thursday. This portends good news for those who don`t like the heat, as thicknesses will come down a notch, and highs will be a degree or so cooler than today`s. East-southeasterly upslope flow will once again develop convection over the higher terrain, and this will continue into the evening hours. Thursday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight--a feeble LLJ offset by a few clouds for overnight lows once again 8-10 F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Not many changes to the forecast. Friday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over Texas, flattened due to an upper trough traversing the US/Canadian border. As such, thicknesses will be maximized, resulting in the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 8-10F above normal. A heat advisory or two may be needed. East-southeasterly upslope flow will result in a chance of orographic convection over the higher terrain during the afternoon/overnight. These areas continue to be our most drought-stricken. Unfortunately, QPF looks meager, so lightning starts remain a concern. A 40+kt LLJ will keep lows Friday night well-above normal. In fact, a recurring nocturnal LLJ will keep lows unseasonably warm throughout the extended. Saturday, the ridge develops eastward, re-centering roughly over the ArklaTex, and a downward trend in temperatures ensues as thicknesses decrease. From here on out, temperatures are a subtle matter of where the ridge ends up each day. Sunday is on track to be the coolest day this forecast, when highs top out from at to 2-3 degrees above normal. Monday/Tuesday, a warming trend kicks in as thicknesses increase slightly, with a slight cooldown Wednesday as the ridge shifts more towards the southeast CONUS. Diurnally-driven convection will be possible each day over the higher terrain due to upslope flow. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Afternoon TS should remain west of all terminals and only affect those flying near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and Big Bend. Otherwise VFR conditions with light and occasionally gusty southeast winds will continue. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 78 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 77 102 77 103 / 40 10 10 20 Dryden 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 101 76 104 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 71 93 74 95 / 50 20 20 30 Hobbs 74 100 74 102 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 65 96 65 99 / 30 10 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 77 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 78 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 78 105 77 107 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
756 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool late June night tonight. -Pattern remains active, especially from late week into early next week, with yet more rounds of showers and storms && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging over the Rockies and troffing over eastern Canada into the adjacent U.S., resulting in nw flow into the Great Lakes. Shortwave that was over southern Saskatchewan 24hrs ago is over northern Lower MI. Shra associated with this feature spread across Upper MI this morning, but diminished dramatically while doing so. Heaviest rainfall occurred over portions of the Keweenaw, CMX received 0.48 inches. Where sun dominated the morning, shra have developed in ne WI, and some of these -shra are affecting portions of southern Menominee County. In the wake of the shortwave, it has been a cool aftn with considerable low cloudiness across the w and n central. Clouds are slowly lifting and showing some signs of scattering out, but cloud cover extends across the lake into ne MN/and northern Ontario where cloud cover is taking on a decidedly more diurnal cellular look. Current temps range only from the low/mid 50s w and n to the upper 60s F s central where more sun has occurred today. Expect some thinning out of clouds for the rest of the aftn. Despite the more cellular look of the clouds upstream of the lake, the considerable coverage suggests that these clouds are not likely to completely dissipate tonight, leading to increased uncertainty in min temps. With center of high pres shifting se to northern MN/nw WI by sunrise, winds will become light to calm. Precipitable water also falls to 50-60pct of normal, aiding radiational cooling potential. Leaned toward the lower side of avbl guidance, which puts min temps down into the upper 30s F at traditional cold spots interior w. Given the cloud cover uncertainty and wet soils that dampen radiational cooling, seems highly unlikely that it would be even colder to support patchy frost development. If more cloudiness hangs on tonight, min temps will easily be at least 5 degrees higher. Otherwise, expect min temps tonight to range thru the 40s F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge over the plains and a trough in the ern U.S. 12z Thu. Troughing moves into the northern Rockies 00z Fri and upper ridging into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. Troughing moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. Dry weather will continue into Thu night before pcpn overspreads the area on Fri into Fri night and lasts into Sat. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes region 12z Sun with a trough on the west coast and a ridge over the Rockies. The west coast trough moves into the Rockies 12z Mon with the ridge over the upper Great Lakes. This trough quickly moves into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Tue which then lingers into Wed. Temperatures will go from below normal on Sunday to near normal by Wednesday. Pcpn comes back in for Mon afternoon into Tue night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 756 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions have returned to all TAF sites and will remain there for the duration of the TAF period with the area under high pressure. Northerly winds will be in the 6 to 11 kt range. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Winds stay below 20 knots into Fri morning and switch to the south by then. A weakening low pressure tracking through the Upper Great Lakes early this weekend will allow for s-se gusts 20-25 kt Friday over mainly the east half ahead of the front and then nw gusts 20-25 kt behind the cold frontal passage on Saturday before building high pressure returns Sunday and ushers in lighter winds into Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
955 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The main change for the evening update will be to adjust PoP/Wx grids to match current radar trends. Overall, the forecast is in good shape, but PoPs will be raised where precip is ongoing and is expected to move in th enext few hours. We should see a decreasing trend to shower coverage and intensity, with no severe storms expected. A few isolated wind gusts up to 40 mph may be possible with outflow boundaries. The loss of heating and the lack of shear will favor weakening convection. A few tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoints will be made as well, but no major changes are needed. Tomorrow`s rain chances will be focused mainly in the southern half of the area, closer to the surface front/trough that will be moving through tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Key Messages: 1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected through Thursday. A few strong storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with wind damage being the main threat. 2. Slightly cooler tomorrow, but still near normal temperatures. Discussion: A weak upper level trough and associated cold front will swing down from the northwest and into our area this evening. Latest HRRR runs show isolated to scattered showers and storms developing between 4 PM and 5 PM across the Cumberland Plateau, east TN mountains and southwest VA mountains. Some of the showers and storms across the plateau will likely drift down into valley locations this evening. With marginal instability and very weak shear in place, a few strong storms are possible. With dry air in place from the surface to the midlevels, the main threat will be damaging winds. As we go further into the evening/overnight hours, additional showers and storms will move in from the west. This is as forcing becomes more favorable with the arrival of the trough. However, chances for strong storms become less favorable during this time as instability will be lower compared to pre-sunset hours. Most areas will see little to no precip. However, any location that receives a thunderstorm could see a quick 0.25 inches to 0.5 inches. We will likely see a lull in the precip early tomorrow morning. Then, as we begin to destabilize with daytime heating, see an uptick in shower and storm development Thursday afternoon. The best chance of seeing any precip will generally be from I-40 and southward, which is closer to where the better forcing will be. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Key Messages: 1. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with highest chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. 2. Drier next week with ridge building across the region. Signals for hot weather returning. Discussion: Shortwave trough on Thursday will flatten the ridge across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians for Friday and into the weekend. A stronger shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes over the weekend with a cold front moving southeastward towards our region on Sunday. Ahead of this front, diurnal convection will be possible on Friday and Saturday, mainly across the higher elevations. By Sunday, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of this cold front. Model guidance indicates MLCAPE values on Sunday afternoon expected to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range with weak bulk shear of 15 to 20 kt. This will favor the possibility of some stronger storms, including strong wind gusts, but the overall severe weather risk isolated and low. The primary risks this weekend (mainly Sunday) will be related to damaging winds and the potential of flash flooding due to heavy rainfall rates as PW values rise into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range ahead of the front. Behind this front, somewhat cooler and drier air is expected early next week. However, ridging builds back in mid-week with a warming temperature trend on Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in above normal temperatures once again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to move into the TN Valley this evening, with the highest chances at TRI and TYS, where TEMPOs will be included for MVFR conditions at TS, and a lower chance at CHA. The front will move through around midnight, shifting winds to NW. An MVFR ceiling is expected to develop behind the front late in the night and tomorrow morning, lifting in the late morning. Additional showers may develop tomorrow afternoon in the southern half of the area, with scattered coverage at best leading to PROB30s in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 99 73 89 73 / 20 40 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 71 89 71 / 20 50 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 96 70 88 70 / 20 60 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 94 68 87 67 / 30 50 50 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DGS LONG TERM....JB AVIATION...DGS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
415 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .SYNOPSIS... A period of drying conditions will carry through the end of the week with rain chances decreasing to near zero across south-central Arizona by Friday. Moisture and subsequent rain chances begin to increase into next week. Above normal temperatures will persist through at least early next week with lower desert highs approaching or exceeding 110 degrees each day, especially in some of the typically hotter locales. && .DISCUSSION... Current mid-level wv imagery reveals the center of a subtropical high pressure system approximately over southern New Mexico near the international border, with abundant moisture in place over the four corners region and extending south. RAP analysis shows PWATs over the region ranging from 1.4-1.9" as of late this morning, but these values will be on the decline today through late Friday/early Saturday, as a strong trough currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast begins to push onshore, enhances southwesterly flow, and brings drier air aloft over the Desert Southwest. With abundant moisture in place over much of Arizona and the remnants of an MCV near Flagstaff, convective activity was already ramping up late this morning over the Mogollon Rim/Central AZ high terrain and is expected to continue through much of the afternoon. As South-Central AZ is in the wake of this MCV, subsidence aloft should provide a sufficient cap to thunderstorm development over the lower deserts late this afternoon/this evening (less than 10% chance for measurable rainfall over the lower deserts), but chances for thunderstorms over the high terrain to the north/east of Phoenix remain around 10-20%. The primary hazards associated with any thunderstorms today will be lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty outflow winds (HREF indicates a 10% probability for gusts in excess of 35 mph for portions of northern and far eastern Maricopa County). Forecast highs for this afternoon range mostly from 107-112 degrees across the lower deserts. As mentioned previously, the trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast will have a significant influence on moisture over the Desert Southwest through early this weekend as it moves onshore and passes to the north early Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow will act to scour out mid level moisture and eventually some low level moisture, leading to ensemble mean PWATs dropping as low as 0.9-1.3" across Southern AZ. As drier air settles in from west to east over the next several days, chances for rain decrease as well. Rain chances will essentially come to an end starting Thursday with only slight chances remaining over far eastern and northern Arizona. Friday is still expected to be our driest day. By Saturday, ridging will begin to build back over the region from the east, with southeasterly flow re-establishing over the southeastern corner of the state. GEFS/ENS model soundings depict weak southerly/southeasterly flow by Sunday over South-Central AZ, with moisture beginning to creep back into the region and rain chances increasing within our eastern CWA. Ensemble mean PWATs increase back up to the 1.5-1.75" range by Monday, and this moisture is expected to linger through the middle of next week, leading to daily chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms mostly over the high terrain (30-50%) and potentially making it into the South-Central AZ lower deserts (10-30%). Forecast temperatures for the rest of the week and even through early next week vary only a few degrees day to day. Above normal temperatures of 3-5 degrees are expected nearly every day with lower desert highs mostly topping out between 106-112 degrees each day. Despite these readings falling into a Moderate HeatRisk category, the heat will still be dangerous to those most vulnerable and to those that underestimate the heat. The hottest day is likely to fall on Sunday as the sub-tropical high strengthens over the weekend, despite it already shifting eastward away from the region. Forecast highs Sunday are currently between 107-113 degrees across the South- Central Arizona lower deserts to 108-115 degrees across the western deserts. The latest NBM forecast temperatures Sunday do present some localized areas of Major HeatRisk, so Excessive Heat headlines may eventually be needed for small portions of the area. Going through the first half of next week, the increased moisture and monsoon activity along with lowering heights aloft should allow for temperatures to attempt to cool off closer to normal readings. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major weather issues should affect the Phoenix terminals through Thursday afternoon under mostly clear skies as reduced thunderstorm activity in the region significantly reduces the chances for aviation impacts. Probabilities for outflow winds descending south into the metro are still only around 10% with chances greatest at KSDL/KDVT, while storm chances are under 5%. West winds should prevail well into the overnight with the typical switch to easterly only probable at KIWA. In fact, winds at KPHX may only become light and variable for a few hours after sunrise before reverting back to westerly. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No weather concerns will exist through Thursday afternoon under only a FEW occasional mid/high clouds. Winds should vary between SE and SW through the period with afternoon/early evening gusts 20-25kt common at KBLH. && .FIRE WEATHER... The weather pattern through the rest of the week will allow for drying conditions and much lower chances for rain. Isolated thunderstorm chances today are expected to be limited to the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix before chances basically come to an end starting Thursday. MinRHs will lower back into the teens across the lower deserts by Thursday, while overnight recoveries remain good at 35-50%. Winds will be fairly light today with some periodic afternoon breeziness, before increasing more on Thursday with afternoon gusts commonly reaching 20 mph. Gusts Thursday evening for portions of western Imperial County and JTNP could reach upwards of 30 mph and locally up to 40 mph for several hours. The dry conditions with virtually no chances for rain should persist through Saturday before moisture returns Sunday, increasing humidities and potentially bringing back chances for thunderstorms across south- central and eastern Arizona. Temperatures through the period are expected to average several degrees above normal. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Whittock AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
820 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Precipitation chances will dwindle through Friday as our monsoonal weather pattern shifts east. Meanwhile...breezy winds return and hot temperatures persist heading into the next work week. && .UPDATE...Convection through this evening has been fairly sparse across most of the forecast area, mainly favoring northern Mohave County and the southern Great Basin regions. With the loss of daytime heating, convection across most of the region has diminished, though a few fairly stout storms persist in central Esmeralda County which are being sustained by some favorable jet dynamics across central Nevada. These storms may persist a few more hours but should diminish prior to midnight. The current forecast covers this activity and the expected trends well with no update necessary. && .SHORT TERM...Today. Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon with widespread PWATs in excess of 1 inch across the forecast area. That said, thunderstorm coverage will not be as widespread as yesterday. Convection today will favor the higher terrain of northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin in the absence of synoptic forcing. CAPE values range from 500-750 J/kg in these areas, though DCAPE approaches 1000 J/kg this afternoon in the southwestern Great Basin - according to forecast HRRR soundings. As such, the highest threat of flash flooding will remain across northwestern Arizona and the highest threat of damaging wind gusts will be across the southwestern Great Basin. Afternoon temperatures today will range from 5 to 7 degrees above seasonal averages. The monsoonal moisture in place has allowed overnight low temperatures to remain fairly warm - with Las Vegas low temperatures failing to drop below 90 degrees for the last 3 nights. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to dwindle on Thursday as a shortwave originating from the Pacific Northwest ushers dry air into the region. As the axis of this shortwave pushes through the Desert Southwest, breezy southwest wind gusts will pick up Thursday and Friday afternoons to between 25 and 35 mph. These winds coupled with this dry air will increase fire danger each afternoon - particularly along a strip from Barstow-Daggett through Las Vegas into St. George. A zonal flow will set up aloft over the weekend. Additional shortwave passages will result in breezy afternoons each day through the weekend into the start of next week. Monsoonal moisture will ebb and flow into Arizona, resulting in a fluctuation of PoPs for Mohave County through the weekend. Meanwhile, heat remains a persistent impact in the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will remain above- average through the entire forecast period with HeatRisk remaining "Moderate" or higher for desert valleys through the week and weekend. Las Vegas remains on-track for hottest June on-record. Current record hottest June is 2017 with an average temperature of 92.8 degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southerly winds with a few gusts to 25kts are expected through early evening. Wind gusts should diminish after sunset with a chance (30%) that winds could fall below 10kts between 05Z and 09Z. Gusty south to southwest winds will redevelop tomorrow morning, with gusts to 25kts likely after 19Z. VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy south-to-southwest winds with a few gusts to 25kts are expected at the Las Vegas and Colorado River TAF sites this afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish overnight, potentially falling to below 10kts at times, before increasing again on Thursday. At KBIH, northerly winds will turn west to southwest by late afternoon but will swing back to the north after sunset. Winds at KDAG will favor a westerly direction through tomorrow, with gusts approaching 30kts by tomorrow afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening over northwest Arizona and the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin. This activity is not expected to impact any of the regional TAF sites, but gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rainfall obscuring terrain will be possible in and near storms that do develop. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter