Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Numerous thunderstorms expected through the evening hours
today. Some will have the potential to become strong to
severe.
- The main threats today are very frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall, but isolated storms will have the potential to
produce large hail and strong, gusty winds.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Initial thunderstorm development over the southern NE panhandle
early this afternoon was likely elevated convection associated with
700mb frontogenesis as indicated by SPC mesoanalysis. Low-levels
based on latest RAP soundings remain capped with 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
available aloft. Observed mostly heavy rainfall with these storms as
MRMS estimates suggested 1-2" of rainfall between Bushnell and
Kimball over a short duration. Only 1 HREF member suggested this
early development (and it was a time-lagged member). More widespread
CI will commence over the next 1-3 hours near a line from Cheyenne
through Chadron as well as further south in CO moving northeast into
portions of the NE panhandle.
Latest GOES imagery continues to show clearing across Laramie Co
along with southern Goshen and Platte counties in WY as the
atmosphere continues to destabilize today. Stable billow clouds still
appear to be present over portions of the South Laramie Range while
latest trends from GOES EMeso2 shows a narrow Cu field trying to
materialize east of Chugwater. This is positioned along the moisture
convergence boundary noted in surface observations with ~35-40F
degree dew points to the west and moist ~55-60F degree dew points
eastward towards the NE border. This boundary will be the focal
point for additional convection later this afternoon along with any
storms that develop over the higher terrain as the low-levels
continues to destabilize. Latest research sounding taken at CSU
around 17z still showed over 100 J/kg of SBCIN that needs to be
overcome, but PW near 1" will support heavy rainfall with these
storms headed into this afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
For details on Friday`s storm threat, see the Mesoscale section
above.
While the severe threat should be mostly concluded by around 03z
tonight, the upper level shortwave axis will still be pushing
across the area through about 12z. Synoptic scale lift in the
presence of modest lingering instability will keep some
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity continuing into the early
morning hours Saturday. Heavy rainfall and isolated hail may
still be possible, mostly southeast of a Cheyenne to Alliance
line. The trough axis should clear the eastern border of the
forecast area by around 12z, advecting in fairly dry air in the
middle atmosphere for Saturday morning. Expect clearing skies
and rapid warming for Saturday as winds turn back westerly and
the dryline retreats to the east.
After today`s shortwave clears out, the overall synoptic pattern
over the CONUS will feature a strong ridge building over the
Midwest towards the East Coast, with a potent trough starting to
dig into the Pacific northwest. This will leave southwest flow
aloft over our area through the short term forecast period.
Expect a breezy to windy day east of a Cheyenne to Lusk line
underneath the southwest flow. The probability of high winds is
fairly low, just around 10-40% (highest at Rawlins), but not low
enough to discount completely. Gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are likely,
but certainly can`t rule out a few gusts of 60+MPH. Other than
that, it looks like a hot day as 700-mb temperatures recover to
around +14 to +17C across the area, supporting widespread 90s
east of the Laramie range. The break in activity will be fairly
short lived though, as another vort- max will eject out of the
Pac NW longwave trough Saturday afternoon. A little bit of
synoptic lift associated with this, along with a quick return in
modest mid-level moisture will initiate another round of widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will be a
dramatically different environment compared to today though,
with much drier low-levels leading to inverted-v soundings.
Thus, the rainfall potential will be reduced, but storms will
have the potential to produce strong, gusty winds. This will be
especially true west of the Laramie range where the baseline
winds will be fairly elevated already. Tomorrow`s storms should
be quick and finish early, clearing out by around 01z.
The surface low associated with Saturday`s weak shortwave will
push out east by Sunday morning. A surface trough trailing
behind this will push a cold front through the area during the
morning hours, returning easterly flow and better moisture to
the high plains. This will knock temperatures down several
degrees to the east, but it will be another hot one further west
with Rawlins and Laramie expected to reach the upper 80s. The
thunderstorm setup on Sunday looks a little interesting. Much of
the high plains will be strongly capped underneath the
inversion, though the area in the vicinity of the Laramie range
may be able to get a few storms to break through the cap aided
by the topography. Other than that, look for fairly limited
storm coverage through the day Sunday. However, after about 00z,
models are consistently showing the west coast trough digging
slightly further south into the Great Basin. This nudges in some
southerly flow at 700-mb which manifests are fairly potent
isentropic lift overrunning the frontal boundary. With elevated
instability lingering over much of the area, there is the
potential for a late evening or overnight round of showers and
thunderstorms developing mainly north of the North Platte River.
Shear vectors look quite strong with about 50 knot SW winds at
500-mb on top of northeasterly surface winds. Instability will
probably be the main limiting factor, but if this comes
together, some overnight strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible. We`ll need to monitor this in the coming days.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Models in reasonable agreement late this weekend through early
next week, showing broad southwest flow aloft through early
Tuesday. An upper level trough across the eastern Pacific is
forecast to remain anchored over the Pac NW into Monday, and
finally show signs of ejecting east on Tuesday. Further east,
surface high pressure will remain over the northern and central
plains, which will help in producing easterly winds for areas
along and east of the Laramie Range. Upslope easterly winds may
be enhanced by any MCS activity over the northern plains, with
models showing some signs of a mesoscale cool front moving
southwest across the northern Front Range. For Sunday and
Monday, expect a continuation of isolated to widely scattered
(10 to 30 percent coverage) thunderstorms in the late afternoon
through the late evening hours. Although forcing seems limited,
there should be enough low level moisture, jet energy aloft,
and natural terrain-induced convergence along the Laramie Range
to initiate some thunderstorm activity. Not expecting severe
weather, but a few strong thunderstorms are possible Sunday
evening through the overnight hours north of Interstate 80.
Temperatures should remain near or slightly above average with
highs in the 80s for most locations along I-80 and west of I-25.
However, with models hinting towards a backdoor cool front and
easterly winds...high temperatures will struggle to get into the
mid 70s from Douglas to Chadron Nebraska.
For Tuesday night and Wednesday, the 00z GFS is trending more
aggressive with a late-season Pacific cold front as the upper
level trough in the Pac NW tracks eastward. All models generally
have 700mb temperatures dropping between 0c to 5c above zero by
early Wednesday morning as the primary trough axis quickly moves
across the area and weakens. The ECMWF and Canadian are not as
aggressive with the cooler airmass, but are more in line with
the ensemble mean. Kept high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid
70s on Wednesday although some guidance is around 10 degrees
cooler...which is around the 10th percentile of ensemble
spreads and the NBM. Will have to monitor overnight lows with a
few locations already showing min temperatures close to freezing
early Wednesday morning. Kept low POP (15 to 25 percent) for
this time period with an unfavorable signal for widespread
convection due to the cooler temperatures near the surface.
For later next week, models do indicate a general warming trend
as we head into Thursday and next Friday with a more favorable
environment for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening
across the southern Nebraska Panhandle and is expected to
continue through mid evening or so. Second round of showers and
storms expected later this evening for Laramie County to include
KCYS. Drier conditions expected Saturday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MB
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
631 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening as storms roll
east-northeast out of southeast CO. Primary hazard will be
damaging wind gusts.
- Another round of storms is possible Saturday afternoon and
evening, however weak mid/upper level flow should limit
severity.
- Strong southerly winds are likely early next week, especially
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Visible satellite observations show widespread cloud debris is
lingering over southwest KS from overnight convection, which is
keeping temperatures in most locations much cooler than expected
in the upper 70s/low 80s. That said, continued erosion of this
cloud cover over the next couple hours should still allow
afternoon highs to reach into the upper 80s/low 90s. Otherwise,
latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
show a compact shortwave impulse over the Four Corners region
that is moving northeast towards the central Rockies. As forcing
for ascent increases ahead of this wave, thunderstorm
development is anticipated across south-central and southeast CO
within an environment characterized by modest buoyancy and
deep-layer shear. With time, upscale growth into a loosely
organized convective system is likely, which will move east-
northeast into western KS by 22-00Z. DCAPE values ahead of this
complex are progged to be in the 1200-1400 J/Kg range, which
will once again support damaging wind gusts as the primary
severe hazard. There is some uncertainty regarding how far east
thunderstorms can reach, as a few HREF members suggest activity
will decay before US-283. This seems reasonable given the
aforementioned lingering cloud cover, which will inhibit surface
parcels. However, deep-layer shear increases slightly with
northward extent, which may support MCS maintenance across
roughly the northern half of our CWA. Either way, convection
will be largely clear of our area by 08Z, and the remainder of
the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the low 60s west
to low 70s east.
Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree the compact upper
level impulse will eject onto the central plains. As forcing for
ascent associated with this wave interacts with any remnant
outflow boundaries, another round of scattered thunderstorms
appears likely roughly along and near an axis from Liberal/Meade
to Wakeeney/Hays. Weak deep layer shear should limit storm
severity, but a few severe wind gusts or quarter sized hail
stones cannot be ruled out.
Sunday into early next work week, medium range ensembles
continue to suggest broad, longwave upper level troughing will
become established over the western CONUS. With modest
southwesterly flow across the central Rockies, fairly deep
leeside surface troughing will develop over eastern CO that will
persists well into the week. Mass response around this feature
will result in strong southerly winds, especially on Monday and
Tuesday, sustained in the 25-35 mph range with gusts up to 50
mph. Additionally, precipitation chances will remain somewhat
elevated as both ECMWF EPS and GEFS probability of QPF > 0.01"
is at least in the 30-60% range each day through Wednesday, and
as high as the 70-80% range Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
A broken line of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to
impact all four terminals in some manner this evening. We will
continue with VCTS in the TAFs with amendments likely as storms
draw closer to terminals for when timing of prevailing TSRA
becomes more clear. Thunderstorms are expected to move east of
DDC and HYS by late tonight with aviation weather improving as
winds become light and variable. On Saturday, winds will
increase out of the southwest at around 20 knots areawide with
gusts to around 30 knots at times in the afternoon.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
726 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for northwest
KS and southwest NE this evening. Brief/localized wind gusts
up to 65 mph and localized reductions in visibility associated
with blowing dust are the primary hazards with ongoing
activity progressing eastward across northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska.
- A few thunderstorms may develop east of Highway 83 in
northwest Kansas late Saturday afternoon. An isolated severe
thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail and wind
gusts up to 65 mph is possible, should storms develop.
- Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday.
- Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Colorado counties have been removed from Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 414. Environmental conditions and trends in radar and
observational data suggest that brief/localized wind gusts up to
65 mph and localized reductions in visibility associated with
blowing dust are the primary convective hazards with ongoing
activity progressing eastward across northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Across the region this afternoon, sky cover is ranging widely
from cloudy to sunny as remnants from morning convection,
combining with new coverage from daytime heating already today,
are providing decent breaks in spots from the hot conditions 24
hours ago. As of 100 PM MDT, temperatures are in the 80s, with a
persistent southeast flow, with gusts into the 30-40 mph range
at times.
Weather concerns for the short term period will focus on the
threat for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the
evening hours. Also, there is a low threat east of Highway 25
for Saturday afternoon/evening.
For the rest of the afternoon hours into tonight, aloft there
is a strong upper ridge at 500mb in the south central Plains,
making a slow trek eastward. At the surface, high pressure east
of the area, combined with a low and associated front west, are
creating a persistent southeasterly flow over the CWA. Dewpts in
the 50s and 60s are resulting in moist flow covering the area
with PW values in the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range.
Guidance has a strong shortwave carrying east through the
Rockies by 00z-06z Saturday that will interact with the
aforementioned surface features to trigger convection.
The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) are showing a start time
in the 23z Fri-00z Sat timeframe with convection building
across northeast Colorado. The convection does move fairly
progressively, clearing the CWA by 06z-07z Saturday. The area
remains under a Slight Risk for severe from SPC, as well as a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC. The CWA will
see all potential threats from hail, wind and even isolated
tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a possibility. Model soundings
do suggest DCape values over 1200 j/kg with inverted-v
profiles. SBCape peaks early with values initially over
2000j/kg.
The shortwave will linger over the Plains tonight into
Saturday, triggering some late day storms over eastern portions
of the CWA. CAMs are showing locales east of Highway 83 seeing
convection. A Marginal Risk for severe is issued as a result
with all threats available, especially wind and heavy rainfall.
Zonal flow ensues Saturday night allowing for a slow clear from
west to east into Sunday morning.
For temps, looking for daytime highs on Saturday to range above
normal in the lower to mid 90s. Warmest locales will be along
and south of the Interstate. Overnight lows tonight will range
from the upper 50s to lower 60s west of Highway 25, and lower to
mid 60s east of Highway 25. For the Saturday night period,
slightly warmer with lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25 and mid
to upper 60s east of there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak
southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20%
chance of precipitation Sunday and Monday evenings. Nothing
highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted,
likely Tuesday afternoon. Around that time, the pressure
gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther
inland, moving the jet stream fairly close, if not over, the
High Plains. This would work to amplify any disturbances and
increase chances for PoPs. furthermore, at 850mb, the high
pressure system over Texas today looks to stall out over the
Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and will funnel moisture into the region
Tuesday through Saturday.
High temperatures Sunday and Monday look to be in the mid 90s
to low 100s. Tuesday will start a cooling trend (highs in the
upper 80s and 90s), but Wednesday and beyond will likely only
warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will
follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to mid 70s Sunday
and Monday nights, and then cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday night and beyond. Gusts Sunday night through Tuesday
morning could get up to 30-35 kts. It`s also worth noting that
while the cooler temperatures look nice on the thermometer, the
additional moisture will make the region feel more muggy and
soupy than normal.
Monday could see some localized critical fire weather
conditions in the extreme southwestern CWA. Winds look to gust
near 25-30 kts while RH values get into the upper teens. This is
really the best chance for critical fire weather conditions as
the additional moisture will keep min RH values above 30%.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Adverse aviation conditions associated with scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this
evening.. mainly in the 00-06Z time frame.. when surface wind
gusts up to 50 knots are possible in vicinity of any storms.
VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period.
Southeasterly winds will veer to the S tonight and SW during the
day on Saturday.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1039 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through next
week with high temperatures mainly in the 90s. Sunday and
Monday will be the warmest days with peak heat index values in
the upper 90s to 105 degree range.
- There is a low chance (20 percent) of showers and thunderstorms
over central Missouri late tonight and tomorrow. There are
multiple chances (20-30 percent) for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Latest surface analysis is showing that a surface front extending
across far southern Illinois into southern Missouri into southern
Kansas. The RAP is showing the front moving back to the north
across parts of Kansas and southwest Missouri late tonight in
response to a upper trough moving into the Plains. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight when the low
level jet interacts with the front. This activity will eventually
move into the western CWA tomorrow morning and diminish as the low
level jet veers and the instability weakens as it moves to the east.
Saturday night looks dry as the aforementioned upper trough shears
out and stays to our north.
Lows tonight will drop down into 60s under a clear sky with light
winds with a dewpoints in the 50s. Highs tomorrow will be similar
to today with winds turning out of the east under a partly cloudy
sky. Winds will turn out of the south on Saturday night keeping
lows in the 60s.
Britt
&&
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
There is reasonable agreement between the global models and the LREF
that the upper ridge will move east of the area by Sunday and then
expand into a large area of high pressure that will cover the
eastern CONUS by the middle of next week. The surface high will
move from the Great Lakes to off the northeast coast by early next
week. This will allow a warm front to move northeast through the
area Saturday night into early Sunday. Thereafter, the low level
flow will stay mainly from the south the rest of the period as the
front will stay to the north where the westerlies will be shunted
north by the upper high. The LREF members are showing some low
chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms at times next week
as weak systems will move across Missouri and Illinois at the same
time a deep flow of moisture will move up from the Gulf of
Mexico.
High temperatures will be mainly in the 90s next week as 850mb LREF
temperatures are forecast to staying around 20C. The warmest days
are still forecast to be Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid-
upper 90s and dewpoints in the middle 60s to around 70. This will
result in some locations reaching heat index readings of 100-105
degrees during the afternoon hours. After Monday, confidence in
reaching heat index levels is not as high as temperature and
dewpoints are not forecast to match up to reach critical levels. The
NBM IQR is wider Tuesday through next Friday (6-8 degrees) than it
is on Saturday through Monday (3-4 degrees) at St. Louis.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Under weak southerly winds and high surface pressure, VFR
conditions will persist through the valid TAF period. There is a
very low (10%) chance for isolated convection in central and
northeast Missouri Saturday afternoon, but confidence is far to
low to mention in the KCOU/KJEF TAFs.
MRB
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
702 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through Saturday before the return of showers and
thunderstorms later in the weekend.
- Warmer than normal next week with frequent chances for showers
and storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
GOES-16 visible imagery shows a fair-weather cu field away from Lake
Superior across the UP, but otherwise clear skies are over the UP
today. RAP analysis shows ridging over the Plains advancing towards
the Upper Great Lakes, which the negative vorticity advection is
supporting a near-1020mb high pressure over Lake Superior this
afternoon. With the high pressure expected to linger over the region
through at least Saturday morning, no precipitation is expected.
While the main component of the wind is northerly, flow is weak
enough that local influences and lake breezes are allowing for light
and variable winds in some spots through this evening. Overnight, as
the high shifts slightly, winds will gradually become more
southerly, though should remain below 10 kt. Clear skies over the
east will allow temperatures to fall to the low 40s per bias-
corrected gridded MOS guidance, with some scattered skies over the
west half keeping lows around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
The pattern becomes increasingly amplified heading into next week as
a mid-level trough digging into western North America amplifies a
ridge from the Great Lakes through the Atlantic Coast into eastern
Canada. This pattern transition will result in much warmer,
summerlike weather for Upper Mi by next week. A series of shortwaves
riding over the ridge will also bring episodes of showers and t-
storms heading into next week with the next best chance likely
occurring Sat night into Sunday.
Dry weather continues for most of Saturday with the midlevel ridge
axis sliding over the area supporting surface high pressure centered
over eastern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes. As a weak shortwave
emerges out of the Central Plains, the pressure gradient tightens
over the area resulting in increasing southerly winds for the
afternoon with gusts to 20 mph possible for much of the UP. Cloud
cover will also be on the increase throughout the day ahead of the
approaching wave.
Ahead of a more prominent shortwave advancing from the Plains, sfc-
850 mb theta-e advection will strengthen on the nose of a developing
50-60kt LLJ as chances for showers and thunderstorms sneak into the
western UP by early evening. PoPs will increase as showers/t-storms
spread east across the forecast area Sat night into Sun morning.
Although the timing of the shortwave`s arrival will be less
favorable for strong/severe surface-based convection as soundings
initially show weak elevated instability, the impressive
lift/dynamics (0-6 km shear of 40-50 kts or higher) could still be
supportive of stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail
especially as one gets into the daytime hours on Sunday as
instability increases. This wind/hail threat has been recognized by
SPC issuing a Marginal Risk for Day 3 (Sunday). Heavy rain will be a
threat as well with the stronger t-storms, as PWATs increase to
generally 1.5-2 inches. Temperatures fcst in the 70s on Saturday
should increase on Sunday, especially west half where there could be
partially clearing in the wake of the passing shortwave. Readings
over the west half should increase into the lower to mid 80s in the
afternoon and this heat combined with dew points in the 60s will
result in muggy and increasingly uncomfortable conditions.
Warm and unsettled weather will continue into next week. Monday
through midweek, the Great Lakes will be situated between high-
amplitude ridging over the Eastern Seaboard and deep troughing over
the Rockies. Persistent southerly flow into the area will continue
to pump in a warm, moist airmass; look for highs Monday and Tuesday
to range well into the 80s for most of the area and even a few low
90s readings possible over the interior west half and in the
typically warmer southerly downsloping spots. With dewpoints well
into the 60s, it will get uncomfortably muggy. Given this unstable
airmass and our area situated on the perimeter of the ridge, passing
weak waves will leave us with chances for showers and storms both
Monday and Tuesday, although mid-level capping from the dome of heat
over the area could at the same time keep a lid on some of the
convection. With deep layer shear still at 40-50 knots on Monday,
any convection that pops that day could have a shot of going severe.
Southerly winds will noticeably increase and become gustier on
Tuesday as a midlevel shortwave ripples out of the Rockies with a
surface low likewise closing off and heading into the Northern
Plains, leading to a tightening pressure gradient over the area.
Another strengthening LLJ of 40-50 kts may provide the lift needed
for some additional convection Tuesday night into Wednesday while
the surface low moves through Ontario and sends a frontal boundary
across the area. From midweek onward, temperatures will trend more
towards normal while the heat dome pattern governing the early part
of the week breaks down, although more episodes of convection are
possible Wed-Thu as more shortwaves ride along the frontal boundary
lingering just to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period as the high pressure
over us moves into the rest of the Great Lakes region tonight
through Saturday. An approaching low pressure from the Plains is
expected to bring some high-level cloud cover from west to east
across the area Saturday. Expect light to calm winds tonight, before
picking up from the south Saturday.
While we could see some marginal LLWS near KCMX late tonight (40%),
given the marginal nature and relatively chance of occurrence, LLWS
was not included in KCMX`s TAF at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
High pressure ridging over the Great Lakes will lead to tranquil
conditions into Saturday. Winds mainly out of the SE Saturday will
be on the increase by the late afternoon, gusting up to 20 knots in
the eastern half of the lake. Wind gusts to 20-25kts will be
possible Sunday, then winds fall back below 20 kts Monday before
increasing out of the SSE again Tuesday with maybe some gusts to 25
knots over the eastern lake. Waves should generally be below 3ft for
most of the period, but are expected to increase to around 3-5ft
across the eastern half of the lake Sunday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion...Correction.
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
918 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross central North Carolina late tonight,
then stall well to our south and east through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 918 PM Friday...
The front remained well to our west and north this evening with pre-
frontal trough over central NC. There were hardly any clouds to be
found at mid-evening with temperatures in the 80s. It appears we can
just about eliminate POP in all but the NE Coastal Plain. There is
moisture convergence and pooling around Rocky Mount, Tarboro,
Halifax, to near Smithfield. Dew points were in the lower to mid 70s
there. Elsewhere, the dew points were in the mid 60s to around 70.
The latest radar indicated the closest shower/storm to our region
was the isolated shower NW of Mount Rodgers in SW Virginia. The HRRR
had shown some development into NW North Carolina by mid-late
evening, but has since backed off that. Instead, it is focusing some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area of moisture
pooling along the trough over the NE Coastal Plain around midnight.
The MLCapes were only around 1000 j/kg there, so it is not expected to
be exceptionally strong. Otherwise, the front will move through late
tonight. Lows will be warm, in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...
Tonight`s cold front should be just exiting the forecast area to the
southeast tomorrow morning, but the front is supposed to linger
along the coastline through the daytime hours. The entire forecast
area should be dry into the early afternoon, but it appears that by
mid afternoon, some thunderstorms should begin to fire along the
front again. Models are showing a rather tight gradient of where the
storms could occur, and right now, it appears that only portions of
Sampson County could receive rain in our area, with the rest of the
precipitation remaining to the southeast. However, if the front
hangs up a little bit farther to the northwest, then the pops may
have to be expanded northwest into Cumberland and Wayne counties or
farther. The front will not bring a major change in air mass - high
temperatures along with dewpoints on Saturday should each come down
a couple degrees. Still, most southern counties should reach the
lower 90s, with mid to upper 80s expected for highs elsewhere. The
chance for thunderstorms should come to an end with sunset, and the
reduction in low temperatures will be more noticeable than the drop
in high temperatures - areas in the northeast could possibly drop
into the upper 50s, but nearly all locations will have lows in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...
Long term period will be warm and dry as upper level ridge anchors
over the Mid-Atlantic region though the week. At the surface, high
pressure will move off the New England coast on Sunday and linger
over the northern Atlantic into midweek, extending into Central NC
keeping warm dry air over the region. Surface flow will generally be
from the south to southeast most of the week which will strongly
influence above normal temperatures. By mid to late week as high
pressure influence weakens, a coastal trough could develop along the
coast resulting in some afternoon isolated showers and storms in the
far SE portion of the FA. Thus, have a 15-20% PoP for Thursday and
Friday afternoon in the SE areas close to the coast. Temperatures,
as mentioned before, will be above normal with highs each day in the
low to mid 90s. The only exception is Sunday where the NW region
could see some cloud coverage from possible shower activity in the
the higher mountains, where high temperatures could range from mid
to upper 80s over the Piedmont region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM Friday...
24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. An isolated shower or two will be possible
tonight ahead of the approaching cold front, but given the low
coverage will leave out of the TAF for now. Winds should generally
be light and variable this evening into tonight, veering around to
nnely behind the front and increasing to 6-10 kts. There could be
some gusts into the mid teens Sat morn, but those should gradually
abate through the afternoon.
Outlook: VFR conditions and generally dry weather are expected, with
the exception of some early morning fog or stratus, mainly across
the western and southern Piedmont Sun and Mon.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Badgett/Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
351 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...An increasing hot and dry airmass will bring critical
fire weather conditions to portions of southern Utah. A very
strong cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon into Monday
night bringing a much cooler airmass to the region Tuesday. The
relief will be short however as another warming trend will begin
midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 06Z Tuesday)...A bit cooler today across the
Beehive State, with the Wasatch Front in the upper 80s and 90s
rather than near or above the century mark. Afternoon upper air
and satellite analysis indicates a large upper level low remains
off the British Columbia coast. The remnants of a weak upper level
low continue to shift away from the CWA through the central and
southern Rockies. Southwesterly flow is gradually shifting into
the Great Basin.
The main story over the next few days will be the return of a hot
(though not quite as hot as earlier this week), dry and breezy
airmass to the region. In areas with critical fuels, this has
prompted Red Flag Warnings to be issued. Be careful with sources
of ignition including fireworks, parking over tall grasses,
cigarette butts, etc as human caused fires are the number one
cause of wildfires in Utah.
By Monday, the previously mentioned trough will be crossing into
Pacific Northwest and Intermountain Region. This trough will be
especially cold for this time of year, with a very strong cold
front poised to cross into northern Utah Monday afternoon. 700mb
temperatures ahead of this front near 16C or so will very quickly
fall to near 0C. Expect strong, gusty northwest winds behind the
front...and strong, gusty southwest winds ahead of it. Current
guidance is struggling to show sufficient instability with this
front for strong convection, but given the punch this front has,
would not be surprised to see at the very least a line of high-
based convection near the front. The cold front is expected to
reach southern Utah by Monday night. Snow levels may fall as low
as 6500 feet or so...so any lingering showers may bring a brief
period of snow showers to the northern Utah mountains.
This cold front may also complicate any ongoing fires, with a
very strong and abrupt wind shift. Several relatively large fires
are ongoing in central Utah. HRRR smoke modeling suggests plumes
should be sufficient to disperse smoke across portions of central
and southern Utah and thus have added smoke to the forecast for
impacted areas. Smoke near the surface will likely be worse from
late evening until about 1000 am to noon.
.LONG TERM (After 06Z Tuesday), Issued 430 AM MDT... Tuesday high
temperatures are likely to be 10 to 20 degrees below normal,
translating to the upper-60s along the Wasatch Front and low-90s
in St. George....more akin to highs in early May.
There is, however, still some remaining uncertainties in the
forecast, mainly pertaining to timing of the frontal passage and the
degree of cooling across the area. There are still 20% of members
that favor a less aggressive cooldown, with 700-mb temperatures near
+4C...in contrast to the other 80% that suggest around -2C.
In summary, the biggest impacts with this system will be gusty pre-
frontal southwesterly winds, below-normal temperatures, and areas of
critical fire weather conditions (see Fire Weather section below).
Beyond Tuesday, temperatures will steadily increase once again.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through
the evening with scattered clouds. Southerly winds are expected to
shift to the northwest by 23Z before returning to the south between
03Z and 05Z. There is a 30 percent chance winds will remain
southerly through the afternoon.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected
across the airspace through the evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue over northwest and eastern Utah through
the early evening before diminishing. Any storms that develop will
be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively dry thunderstorms continue across eastern
Utah this afternoon with another area of weak high-based showers
and thunderstorms near and south of Wendover. Hot, dry, and windy
conditions will build across southern Utah Saturday into Sunday.
Red Flag Warnings are now in effect for portions of southern and
western Utah. By Monday, a strong cold front will cross into
northern Utah, bringing strong winds to southern Utah Monday
afternoon and evening. Some indication of a subtle increase in
humidities across fire weather zones 495 and 496...so these areas
are in a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon and evening while
Red Flag Warnings continue for fire weather zones 497 and 498. A
marked shift to the northwest with this cold front is expected
across southern Utah Monday night. Winds may be strong with this
cold front.
A cooler airmass will be in place across the region Tuesday.
Critical fire weather conditions may return as early as Thursday.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ495-496.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for UTZ495-496.
Red Flag Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for
UTZ498.
Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ497.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Kruse/Cunningham/Traphagan
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Thunderstorms approach the area from the west tonight. Best
chances for storms will be across northern KS and a few storms
could be strong to severe.
-Widely scattered storms could impact the area again tomorrow
afternoon. Damaging wind appears to the be main threat.
-Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend and
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Early this afternoon, the air mass over the area has become
increasingly buoyant with a steady increase in temps and dew points
into midday. A lingering, but fairly diffuse, surface boundary from
yesterday`s system appears to remain positioned just south of the
forecast area. For this afternoon, have a low chance (10-15%) for
isolated storms south of I-70 due to some isentropic ascent
occurring near the boundary. Looking at a wider view across the
CONUS, showers and storms were ongoing across much of the High
Plains well ahead of a mid-level wave near the Four Corners. More
robust convection is expected to develop over portions of eastern
Colorado and western Kansas this evening as the mid-level wave
advances northeast. Thunderstorm activity will move east into
central Kansas late this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings
around north-central Kansas show around 2500 J/kg of elevated
instability ahead of the storms, but weak deep layer shear. Better
forcing will also remain just west and north of the area, closer to
the trough axis that will remain west of the area. Most CAMs agree
on storms moving northeast across north-central and far northern
Kansas overnight with decreasing chances with further southward
extent. The main threat from storms will be damaging wind gusts.
Thunderstorms could occur again tomorrow afternoon as the mid-level
trough axis moves into central KS. Stronger low level southerly flow
will push the lingering surface boundary to the north as a warm
front. A similar environment will be in place, with ample amounts of
instability but weaker directional and speed shear through the mid
levels. Forcing, however, should be a little stronger with the
approach of the upper trough axis. Am thinking that widely scattered
storms could develop during the late afternoon or early evening
hours. Strong winds will again be the main concern, especially with
DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Instability and forcing will wane
during the overnight hours which should decrease the coverage and
intensity of any storms that developed previously.
High heat and humidity are expected to continue late this weekend
and early next week with strong southerly flow dominating our low
level pattern. Aloft, a more amplified pattern will evolve across
the country as an expansive ridge builds over the eastern US and
troughing occurs out west. A strong cold front looks to approach the
area late Tuesday as a wave in the southwestern mid-level flow moves
into southern Canada. Convergence along the front looks strong
enough to warrant an increase in POPs, especially in north-central
and northern KS, even with a lack of better upper level support. A
drop in temps could occur if that front is able to move southward
into east-central KS. Otherwise, typical summer like heat is
expected as we approach the solstice.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
VFR conditions are forecast with the main challenge being
chances for thunderstorms overnight into early tomorrow morning.
Have kept VCTS at MHK where confidence is better as a broken
line of storms looks to approach from central KS. General
weakening is expected as storms move east-northeastward, so
confidence is not as high at Topeka sites, which may be far
enough south to avoid any remaining activity. Recent HRRR runs
have hinted at the possibility of a few additional showers or
storms backbuilding near TOP/FOE later Saturday morning, but
would like to see more consistency in that idea before
mentioning in TAFs. Outside of convection, east winds look to
veer to the south by morning and become gusty through the day.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Picha