Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/24


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
545 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous thunderstorms expected through the evening hours today. Some will have the potential to become strong to severe. - The main threats today are very frequent lightning and heavy rainfall, but isolated storms will have the potential to produce large hail and strong, gusty winds. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 114 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Initial thunderstorm development over the southern NE panhandle early this afternoon was likely elevated convection associated with 700mb frontogenesis as indicated by SPC mesoanalysis. Low-levels based on latest RAP soundings remain capped with 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE available aloft. Observed mostly heavy rainfall with these storms as MRMS estimates suggested 1-2" of rainfall between Bushnell and Kimball over a short duration. Only 1 HREF member suggested this early development (and it was a time-lagged member). More widespread CI will commence over the next 1-3 hours near a line from Cheyenne through Chadron as well as further south in CO moving northeast into portions of the NE panhandle. Latest GOES imagery continues to show clearing across Laramie Co along with southern Goshen and Platte counties in WY as the atmosphere continues to destabilize today. Stable billow clouds still appear to be present over portions of the South Laramie Range while latest trends from GOES EMeso2 shows a narrow Cu field trying to materialize east of Chugwater. This is positioned along the moisture convergence boundary noted in surface observations with ~35-40F degree dew points to the west and moist ~55-60F degree dew points eastward towards the NE border. This boundary will be the focal point for additional convection later this afternoon along with any storms that develop over the higher terrain as the low-levels continues to destabilize. Latest research sounding taken at CSU around 17z still showed over 100 J/kg of SBCIN that needs to be overcome, but PW near 1" will support heavy rainfall with these storms headed into this afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For details on Friday`s storm threat, see the Mesoscale section above. While the severe threat should be mostly concluded by around 03z tonight, the upper level shortwave axis will still be pushing across the area through about 12z. Synoptic scale lift in the presence of modest lingering instability will keep some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity continuing into the early morning hours Saturday. Heavy rainfall and isolated hail may still be possible, mostly southeast of a Cheyenne to Alliance line. The trough axis should clear the eastern border of the forecast area by around 12z, advecting in fairly dry air in the middle atmosphere for Saturday morning. Expect clearing skies and rapid warming for Saturday as winds turn back westerly and the dryline retreats to the east. After today`s shortwave clears out, the overall synoptic pattern over the CONUS will feature a strong ridge building over the Midwest towards the East Coast, with a potent trough starting to dig into the Pacific northwest. This will leave southwest flow aloft over our area through the short term forecast period. Expect a breezy to windy day east of a Cheyenne to Lusk line underneath the southwest flow. The probability of high winds is fairly low, just around 10-40% (highest at Rawlins), but not low enough to discount completely. Gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are likely, but certainly can`t rule out a few gusts of 60+MPH. Other than that, it looks like a hot day as 700-mb temperatures recover to around +14 to +17C across the area, supporting widespread 90s east of the Laramie range. The break in activity will be fairly short lived though, as another vort- max will eject out of the Pac NW longwave trough Saturday afternoon. A little bit of synoptic lift associated with this, along with a quick return in modest mid-level moisture will initiate another round of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will be a dramatically different environment compared to today though, with much drier low-levels leading to inverted-v soundings. Thus, the rainfall potential will be reduced, but storms will have the potential to produce strong, gusty winds. This will be especially true west of the Laramie range where the baseline winds will be fairly elevated already. Tomorrow`s storms should be quick and finish early, clearing out by around 01z. The surface low associated with Saturday`s weak shortwave will push out east by Sunday morning. A surface trough trailing behind this will push a cold front through the area during the morning hours, returning easterly flow and better moisture to the high plains. This will knock temperatures down several degrees to the east, but it will be another hot one further west with Rawlins and Laramie expected to reach the upper 80s. The thunderstorm setup on Sunday looks a little interesting. Much of the high plains will be strongly capped underneath the inversion, though the area in the vicinity of the Laramie range may be able to get a few storms to break through the cap aided by the topography. Other than that, look for fairly limited storm coverage through the day Sunday. However, after about 00z, models are consistently showing the west coast trough digging slightly further south into the Great Basin. This nudges in some southerly flow at 700-mb which manifests are fairly potent isentropic lift overrunning the frontal boundary. With elevated instability lingering over much of the area, there is the potential for a late evening or overnight round of showers and thunderstorms developing mainly north of the North Platte River. Shear vectors look quite strong with about 50 knot SW winds at 500-mb on top of northeasterly surface winds. Instability will probably be the main limiting factor, but if this comes together, some overnight strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. We`ll need to monitor this in the coming days. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Models in reasonable agreement late this weekend through early next week, showing broad southwest flow aloft through early Tuesday. An upper level trough across the eastern Pacific is forecast to remain anchored over the Pac NW into Monday, and finally show signs of ejecting east on Tuesday. Further east, surface high pressure will remain over the northern and central plains, which will help in producing easterly winds for areas along and east of the Laramie Range. Upslope easterly winds may be enhanced by any MCS activity over the northern plains, with models showing some signs of a mesoscale cool front moving southwest across the northern Front Range. For Sunday and Monday, expect a continuation of isolated to widely scattered (10 to 30 percent coverage) thunderstorms in the late afternoon through the late evening hours. Although forcing seems limited, there should be enough low level moisture, jet energy aloft, and natural terrain-induced convergence along the Laramie Range to initiate some thunderstorm activity. Not expecting severe weather, but a few strong thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening through the overnight hours north of Interstate 80. Temperatures should remain near or slightly above average with highs in the 80s for most locations along I-80 and west of I-25. However, with models hinting towards a backdoor cool front and easterly winds...high temperatures will struggle to get into the mid 70s from Douglas to Chadron Nebraska. For Tuesday night and Wednesday, the 00z GFS is trending more aggressive with a late-season Pacific cold front as the upper level trough in the Pac NW tracks eastward. All models generally have 700mb temperatures dropping between 0c to 5c above zero by early Wednesday morning as the primary trough axis quickly moves across the area and weakens. The ECMWF and Canadian are not as aggressive with the cooler airmass, but are more in line with the ensemble mean. Kept high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday although some guidance is around 10 degrees cooler...which is around the 10th percentile of ensemble spreads and the NBM. Will have to monitor overnight lows with a few locations already showing min temperatures close to freezing early Wednesday morning. Kept low POP (15 to 25 percent) for this time period with an unfavorable signal for widespread convection due to the cooler temperatures near the surface. For later next week, models do indicate a general warming trend as we head into Thursday and next Friday with a more favorable environment for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 538 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening across the southern Nebraska Panhandle and is expected to continue through mid evening or so. Second round of showers and storms expected later this evening for Laramie County to include KCYS. Drier conditions expected Saturday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...MB SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
631 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening as storms roll east-northeast out of southeast CO. Primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts. - Another round of storms is possible Saturday afternoon and evening, however weak mid/upper level flow should limit severity. - Strong southerly winds are likely early next week, especially Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Visible satellite observations show widespread cloud debris is lingering over southwest KS from overnight convection, which is keeping temperatures in most locations much cooler than expected in the upper 70s/low 80s. That said, continued erosion of this cloud cover over the next couple hours should still allow afternoon highs to reach into the upper 80s/low 90s. Otherwise, latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis show a compact shortwave impulse over the Four Corners region that is moving northeast towards the central Rockies. As forcing for ascent increases ahead of this wave, thunderstorm development is anticipated across south-central and southeast CO within an environment characterized by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear. With time, upscale growth into a loosely organized convective system is likely, which will move east- northeast into western KS by 22-00Z. DCAPE values ahead of this complex are progged to be in the 1200-1400 J/Kg range, which will once again support damaging wind gusts as the primary severe hazard. There is some uncertainty regarding how far east thunderstorms can reach, as a few HREF members suggest activity will decay before US-283. This seems reasonable given the aforementioned lingering cloud cover, which will inhibit surface parcels. However, deep-layer shear increases slightly with northward extent, which may support MCS maintenance across roughly the northern half of our CWA. Either way, convection will be largely clear of our area by 08Z, and the remainder of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the low 60s west to low 70s east. Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree the compact upper level impulse will eject onto the central plains. As forcing for ascent associated with this wave interacts with any remnant outflow boundaries, another round of scattered thunderstorms appears likely roughly along and near an axis from Liberal/Meade to Wakeeney/Hays. Weak deep layer shear should limit storm severity, but a few severe wind gusts or quarter sized hail stones cannot be ruled out. Sunday into early next work week, medium range ensembles continue to suggest broad, longwave upper level troughing will become established over the western CONUS. With modest southwesterly flow across the central Rockies, fairly deep leeside surface troughing will develop over eastern CO that will persists well into the week. Mass response around this feature will result in strong southerly winds, especially on Monday and Tuesday, sustained in the 25-35 mph range with gusts up to 50 mph. Additionally, precipitation chances will remain somewhat elevated as both ECMWF EPS and GEFS probability of QPF > 0.01" is at least in the 30-60% range each day through Wednesday, and as high as the 70-80% range Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A broken line of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to impact all four terminals in some manner this evening. We will continue with VCTS in the TAFs with amendments likely as storms draw closer to terminals for when timing of prevailing TSRA becomes more clear. Thunderstorms are expected to move east of DDC and HYS by late tonight with aviation weather improving as winds become light and variable. On Saturday, winds will increase out of the southwest at around 20 knots areawide with gusts to around 30 knots at times in the afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
726 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for northwest KS and southwest NE this evening. Brief/localized wind gusts up to 65 mph and localized reductions in visibility associated with blowing dust are the primary hazards with ongoing activity progressing eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. - A few thunderstorms may develop east of Highway 83 in northwest Kansas late Saturday afternoon. An isolated severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph is possible, should storms develop. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 720 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Colorado counties have been removed from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414. Environmental conditions and trends in radar and observational data suggest that brief/localized wind gusts up to 65 mph and localized reductions in visibility associated with blowing dust are the primary convective hazards with ongoing activity progressing eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Across the region this afternoon, sky cover is ranging widely from cloudy to sunny as remnants from morning convection, combining with new coverage from daytime heating already today, are providing decent breaks in spots from the hot conditions 24 hours ago. As of 100 PM MDT, temperatures are in the 80s, with a persistent southeast flow, with gusts into the 30-40 mph range at times. Weather concerns for the short term period will focus on the threat for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening hours. Also, there is a low threat east of Highway 25 for Saturday afternoon/evening. For the rest of the afternoon hours into tonight, aloft there is a strong upper ridge at 500mb in the south central Plains, making a slow trek eastward. At the surface, high pressure east of the area, combined with a low and associated front west, are creating a persistent southeasterly flow over the CWA. Dewpts in the 50s and 60s are resulting in moist flow covering the area with PW values in the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range. Guidance has a strong shortwave carrying east through the Rockies by 00z-06z Saturday that will interact with the aforementioned surface features to trigger convection. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) are showing a start time in the 23z Fri-00z Sat timeframe with convection building across northeast Colorado. The convection does move fairly progressively, clearing the CWA by 06z-07z Saturday. The area remains under a Slight Risk for severe from SPC, as well as a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC. The CWA will see all potential threats from hail, wind and even isolated tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a possibility. Model soundings do suggest DCape values over 1200 j/kg with inverted-v profiles. SBCape peaks early with values initially over 2000j/kg. The shortwave will linger over the Plains tonight into Saturday, triggering some late day storms over eastern portions of the CWA. CAMs are showing locales east of Highway 83 seeing convection. A Marginal Risk for severe is issued as a result with all threats available, especially wind and heavy rainfall. Zonal flow ensues Saturday night allowing for a slow clear from west to east into Sunday morning. For temps, looking for daytime highs on Saturday to range above normal in the lower to mid 90s. Warmest locales will be along and south of the Interstate. Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s west of Highway 25, and lower to mid 60s east of Highway 25. For the Saturday night period, slightly warmer with lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25 and mid to upper 60s east of there. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% chance of precipitation Sunday and Monday evenings. Nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around that time, the pressure gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther inland, moving the jet stream fairly close, if not over, the High Plains. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase chances for PoPs. furthermore, at 850mb, the high pressure system over Texas today looks to stall out over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and will funnel moisture into the region Tuesday through Saturday. High temperatures Sunday and Monday look to be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Tuesday will start a cooling trend (highs in the upper 80s and 90s), but Wednesday and beyond will likely only warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday nights, and then cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night and beyond. Gusts Sunday night through Tuesday morning could get up to 30-35 kts. It`s also worth noting that while the cooler temperatures look nice on the thermometer, the additional moisture will make the region feel more muggy and soupy than normal. Monday could see some localized critical fire weather conditions in the extreme southwestern CWA. Winds look to gust near 25-30 kts while RH values get into the upper teens. This is really the best chance for critical fire weather conditions as the additional moisture will keep min RH values above 30%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 555 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Adverse aviation conditions associated with scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this evening.. mainly in the 00-06Z time frame.. when surface wind gusts up to 50 knots are possible in vicinity of any storms. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will veer to the S tonight and SW during the day on Saturday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vincent SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Vincent
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1039 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through next week with high temperatures mainly in the 90s. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days with peak heat index values in the upper 90s to 105 degree range. - There is a low chance (20 percent) of showers and thunderstorms over central Missouri late tonight and tomorrow. There are multiple chances (20-30 percent) for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Latest surface analysis is showing that a surface front extending across far southern Illinois into southern Missouri into southern Kansas. The RAP is showing the front moving back to the north across parts of Kansas and southwest Missouri late tonight in response to a upper trough moving into the Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight when the low level jet interacts with the front. This activity will eventually move into the western CWA tomorrow morning and diminish as the low level jet veers and the instability weakens as it moves to the east. Saturday night looks dry as the aforementioned upper trough shears out and stays to our north. Lows tonight will drop down into 60s under a clear sky with light winds with a dewpoints in the 50s. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today with winds turning out of the east under a partly cloudy sky. Winds will turn out of the south on Saturday night keeping lows in the 60s. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 There is reasonable agreement between the global models and the LREF that the upper ridge will move east of the area by Sunday and then expand into a large area of high pressure that will cover the eastern CONUS by the middle of next week. The surface high will move from the Great Lakes to off the northeast coast by early next week. This will allow a warm front to move northeast through the area Saturday night into early Sunday. Thereafter, the low level flow will stay mainly from the south the rest of the period as the front will stay to the north where the westerlies will be shunted north by the upper high. The LREF members are showing some low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms at times next week as weak systems will move across Missouri and Illinois at the same time a deep flow of moisture will move up from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will be mainly in the 90s next week as 850mb LREF temperatures are forecast to staying around 20C. The warmest days are still forecast to be Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid- upper 90s and dewpoints in the middle 60s to around 70. This will result in some locations reaching heat index readings of 100-105 degrees during the afternoon hours. After Monday, confidence in reaching heat index levels is not as high as temperature and dewpoints are not forecast to match up to reach critical levels. The NBM IQR is wider Tuesday through next Friday (6-8 degrees) than it is on Saturday through Monday (3-4 degrees) at St. Louis. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Under weak southerly winds and high surface pressure, VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period. There is a very low (10%) chance for isolated convection in central and northeast Missouri Saturday afternoon, but confidence is far to low to mention in the KCOU/KJEF TAFs. MRB && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
702 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Saturday before the return of showers and thunderstorms later in the weekend. - Warmer than normal next week with frequent chances for showers and storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 GOES-16 visible imagery shows a fair-weather cu field away from Lake Superior across the UP, but otherwise clear skies are over the UP today. RAP analysis shows ridging over the Plains advancing towards the Upper Great Lakes, which the negative vorticity advection is supporting a near-1020mb high pressure over Lake Superior this afternoon. With the high pressure expected to linger over the region through at least Saturday morning, no precipitation is expected. While the main component of the wind is northerly, flow is weak enough that local influences and lake breezes are allowing for light and variable winds in some spots through this evening. Overnight, as the high shifts slightly, winds will gradually become more southerly, though should remain below 10 kt. Clear skies over the east will allow temperatures to fall to the low 40s per bias- corrected gridded MOS guidance, with some scattered skies over the west half keeping lows around 50. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The pattern becomes increasingly amplified heading into next week as a mid-level trough digging into western North America amplifies a ridge from the Great Lakes through the Atlantic Coast into eastern Canada. This pattern transition will result in much warmer, summerlike weather for Upper Mi by next week. A series of shortwaves riding over the ridge will also bring episodes of showers and t- storms heading into next week with the next best chance likely occurring Sat night into Sunday. Dry weather continues for most of Saturday with the midlevel ridge axis sliding over the area supporting surface high pressure centered over eastern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes. As a weak shortwave emerges out of the Central Plains, the pressure gradient tightens over the area resulting in increasing southerly winds for the afternoon with gusts to 20 mph possible for much of the UP. Cloud cover will also be on the increase throughout the day ahead of the approaching wave. Ahead of a more prominent shortwave advancing from the Plains, sfc- 850 mb theta-e advection will strengthen on the nose of a developing 50-60kt LLJ as chances for showers and thunderstorms sneak into the western UP by early evening. PoPs will increase as showers/t-storms spread east across the forecast area Sat night into Sun morning. Although the timing of the shortwave`s arrival will be less favorable for strong/severe surface-based convection as soundings initially show weak elevated instability, the impressive lift/dynamics (0-6 km shear of 40-50 kts or higher) could still be supportive of stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail especially as one gets into the daytime hours on Sunday as instability increases. This wind/hail threat has been recognized by SPC issuing a Marginal Risk for Day 3 (Sunday). Heavy rain will be a threat as well with the stronger t-storms, as PWATs increase to generally 1.5-2 inches. Temperatures fcst in the 70s on Saturday should increase on Sunday, especially west half where there could be partially clearing in the wake of the passing shortwave. Readings over the west half should increase into the lower to mid 80s in the afternoon and this heat combined with dew points in the 60s will result in muggy and increasingly uncomfortable conditions. Warm and unsettled weather will continue into next week. Monday through midweek, the Great Lakes will be situated between high- amplitude ridging over the Eastern Seaboard and deep troughing over the Rockies. Persistent southerly flow into the area will continue to pump in a warm, moist airmass; look for highs Monday and Tuesday to range well into the 80s for most of the area and even a few low 90s readings possible over the interior west half and in the typically warmer southerly downsloping spots. With dewpoints well into the 60s, it will get uncomfortably muggy. Given this unstable airmass and our area situated on the perimeter of the ridge, passing weak waves will leave us with chances for showers and storms both Monday and Tuesday, although mid-level capping from the dome of heat over the area could at the same time keep a lid on some of the convection. With deep layer shear still at 40-50 knots on Monday, any convection that pops that day could have a shot of going severe. Southerly winds will noticeably increase and become gustier on Tuesday as a midlevel shortwave ripples out of the Rockies with a surface low likewise closing off and heading into the Northern Plains, leading to a tightening pressure gradient over the area. Another strengthening LLJ of 40-50 kts may provide the lift needed for some additional convection Tuesday night into Wednesday while the surface low moves through Ontario and sends a frontal boundary across the area. From midweek onward, temperatures will trend more towards normal while the heat dome pattern governing the early part of the week breaks down, although more episodes of convection are possible Wed-Thu as more shortwaves ride along the frontal boundary lingering just to our south. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 701 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period as the high pressure over us moves into the rest of the Great Lakes region tonight through Saturday. An approaching low pressure from the Plains is expected to bring some high-level cloud cover from west to east across the area Saturday. Expect light to calm winds tonight, before picking up from the south Saturday. While we could see some marginal LLWS near KCMX late tonight (40%), given the marginal nature and relatively chance of occurrence, LLWS was not included in KCMX`s TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure ridging over the Great Lakes will lead to tranquil conditions into Saturday. Winds mainly out of the SE Saturday will be on the increase by the late afternoon, gusting up to 20 knots in the eastern half of the lake. Wind gusts to 20-25kts will be possible Sunday, then winds fall back below 20 kts Monday before increasing out of the SSE again Tuesday with maybe some gusts to 25 knots over the eastern lake. Waves should generally be below 3ft for most of the period, but are expected to increase to around 3-5ft across the eastern half of the lake Sunday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...TAP MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion...Correction.
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
918 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross central North Carolina late tonight, then stall well to our south and east through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 918 PM Friday... The front remained well to our west and north this evening with pre- frontal trough over central NC. There were hardly any clouds to be found at mid-evening with temperatures in the 80s. It appears we can just about eliminate POP in all but the NE Coastal Plain. There is moisture convergence and pooling around Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Halifax, to near Smithfield. Dew points were in the lower to mid 70s there. Elsewhere, the dew points were in the mid 60s to around 70. The latest radar indicated the closest shower/storm to our region was the isolated shower NW of Mount Rodgers in SW Virginia. The HRRR had shown some development into NW North Carolina by mid-late evening, but has since backed off that. Instead, it is focusing some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area of moisture pooling along the trough over the NE Coastal Plain around midnight. The MLCapes were only around 1000 j/kg there, so it is not expected to be exceptionally strong. Otherwise, the front will move through late tonight. Lows will be warm, in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Friday... Tonight`s cold front should be just exiting the forecast area to the southeast tomorrow morning, but the front is supposed to linger along the coastline through the daytime hours. The entire forecast area should be dry into the early afternoon, but it appears that by mid afternoon, some thunderstorms should begin to fire along the front again. Models are showing a rather tight gradient of where the storms could occur, and right now, it appears that only portions of Sampson County could receive rain in our area, with the rest of the precipitation remaining to the southeast. However, if the front hangs up a little bit farther to the northwest, then the pops may have to be expanded northwest into Cumberland and Wayne counties or farther. The front will not bring a major change in air mass - high temperatures along with dewpoints on Saturday should each come down a couple degrees. Still, most southern counties should reach the lower 90s, with mid to upper 80s expected for highs elsewhere. The chance for thunderstorms should come to an end with sunset, and the reduction in low temperatures will be more noticeable than the drop in high temperatures - areas in the northeast could possibly drop into the upper 50s, but nearly all locations will have lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 PM Friday... Long term period will be warm and dry as upper level ridge anchors over the Mid-Atlantic region though the week. At the surface, high pressure will move off the New England coast on Sunday and linger over the northern Atlantic into midweek, extending into Central NC keeping warm dry air over the region. Surface flow will generally be from the south to southeast most of the week which will strongly influence above normal temperatures. By mid to late week as high pressure influence weakens, a coastal trough could develop along the coast resulting in some afternoon isolated showers and storms in the far SE portion of the FA. Thus, have a 15-20% PoP for Thursday and Friday afternoon in the SE areas close to the coast. Temperatures, as mentioned before, will be above normal with highs each day in the low to mid 90s. The only exception is Sunday where the NW region could see some cloud coverage from possible shower activity in the the higher mountains, where high temperatures could range from mid to upper 80s over the Piedmont region. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 725 PM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. An isolated shower or two will be possible tonight ahead of the approaching cold front, but given the low coverage will leave out of the TAF for now. Winds should generally be light and variable this evening into tonight, veering around to nnely behind the front and increasing to 6-10 kts. There could be some gusts into the mid teens Sat morn, but those should gradually abate through the afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions and generally dry weather are expected, with the exception of some early morning fog or stratus, mainly across the western and southern Piedmont Sun and Mon. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Badgett/Green SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
351 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An increasing hot and dry airmass will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of southern Utah. A very strong cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon into Monday night bringing a much cooler airmass to the region Tuesday. The relief will be short however as another warming trend will begin midweek. && .SHORT TERM (Through 06Z Tuesday)...A bit cooler today across the Beehive State, with the Wasatch Front in the upper 80s and 90s rather than near or above the century mark. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates a large upper level low remains off the British Columbia coast. The remnants of a weak upper level low continue to shift away from the CWA through the central and southern Rockies. Southwesterly flow is gradually shifting into the Great Basin. The main story over the next few days will be the return of a hot (though not quite as hot as earlier this week), dry and breezy airmass to the region. In areas with critical fuels, this has prompted Red Flag Warnings to be issued. Be careful with sources of ignition including fireworks, parking over tall grasses, cigarette butts, etc as human caused fires are the number one cause of wildfires in Utah. By Monday, the previously mentioned trough will be crossing into Pacific Northwest and Intermountain Region. This trough will be especially cold for this time of year, with a very strong cold front poised to cross into northern Utah Monday afternoon. 700mb temperatures ahead of this front near 16C or so will very quickly fall to near 0C. Expect strong, gusty northwest winds behind the front...and strong, gusty southwest winds ahead of it. Current guidance is struggling to show sufficient instability with this front for strong convection, but given the punch this front has, would not be surprised to see at the very least a line of high- based convection near the front. The cold front is expected to reach southern Utah by Monday night. Snow levels may fall as low as 6500 feet or so...so any lingering showers may bring a brief period of snow showers to the northern Utah mountains. This cold front may also complicate any ongoing fires, with a very strong and abrupt wind shift. Several relatively large fires are ongoing in central Utah. HRRR smoke modeling suggests plumes should be sufficient to disperse smoke across portions of central and southern Utah and thus have added smoke to the forecast for impacted areas. Smoke near the surface will likely be worse from late evening until about 1000 am to noon. .LONG TERM (After 06Z Tuesday), Issued 430 AM MDT... Tuesday high temperatures are likely to be 10 to 20 degrees below normal, translating to the upper-60s along the Wasatch Front and low-90s in St. George....more akin to highs in early May. There is, however, still some remaining uncertainties in the forecast, mainly pertaining to timing of the frontal passage and the degree of cooling across the area. There are still 20% of members that favor a less aggressive cooldown, with 700-mb temperatures near +4C...in contrast to the other 80% that suggest around -2C. In summary, the biggest impacts with this system will be gusty pre- frontal southwesterly winds, below-normal temperatures, and areas of critical fire weather conditions (see Fire Weather section below). Beyond Tuesday, temperatures will steadily increase once again. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the evening with scattered clouds. Southerly winds are expected to shift to the northwest by 23Z before returning to the south between 03Z and 05Z. There is a 30 percent chance winds will remain southerly through the afternoon. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected across the airspace through the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over northwest and eastern Utah through the early evening before diminishing. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Relatively dry thunderstorms continue across eastern Utah this afternoon with another area of weak high-based showers and thunderstorms near and south of Wendover. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will build across southern Utah Saturday into Sunday. Red Flag Warnings are now in effect for portions of southern and western Utah. By Monday, a strong cold front will cross into northern Utah, bringing strong winds to southern Utah Monday afternoon and evening. Some indication of a subtle increase in humidities across fire weather zones 495 and 496...so these areas are in a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon and evening while Red Flag Warnings continue for fire weather zones 497 and 498. A marked shift to the northwest with this cold front is expected across southern Utah Monday night. Winds may be strong with this cold front. A cooler airmass will be in place across the region Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may return as early as Thursday. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ495-496. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ495-496. Red Flag Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ498. Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ497. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Cunningham/Traphagan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Thunderstorms approach the area from the west tonight. Best chances for storms will be across northern KS and a few storms could be strong to severe. -Widely scattered storms could impact the area again tomorrow afternoon. Damaging wind appears to the be main threat. -Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Early this afternoon, the air mass over the area has become increasingly buoyant with a steady increase in temps and dew points into midday. A lingering, but fairly diffuse, surface boundary from yesterday`s system appears to remain positioned just south of the forecast area. For this afternoon, have a low chance (10-15%) for isolated storms south of I-70 due to some isentropic ascent occurring near the boundary. Looking at a wider view across the CONUS, showers and storms were ongoing across much of the High Plains well ahead of a mid-level wave near the Four Corners. More robust convection is expected to develop over portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas this evening as the mid-level wave advances northeast. Thunderstorm activity will move east into central Kansas late this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings around north-central Kansas show around 2500 J/kg of elevated instability ahead of the storms, but weak deep layer shear. Better forcing will also remain just west and north of the area, closer to the trough axis that will remain west of the area. Most CAMs agree on storms moving northeast across north-central and far northern Kansas overnight with decreasing chances with further southward extent. The main threat from storms will be damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms could occur again tomorrow afternoon as the mid-level trough axis moves into central KS. Stronger low level southerly flow will push the lingering surface boundary to the north as a warm front. A similar environment will be in place, with ample amounts of instability but weaker directional and speed shear through the mid levels. Forcing, however, should be a little stronger with the approach of the upper trough axis. Am thinking that widely scattered storms could develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours. Strong winds will again be the main concern, especially with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Instability and forcing will wane during the overnight hours which should decrease the coverage and intensity of any storms that developed previously. High heat and humidity are expected to continue late this weekend and early next week with strong southerly flow dominating our low level pattern. Aloft, a more amplified pattern will evolve across the country as an expansive ridge builds over the eastern US and troughing occurs out west. A strong cold front looks to approach the area late Tuesday as a wave in the southwestern mid-level flow moves into southern Canada. Convergence along the front looks strong enough to warrant an increase in POPs, especially in north-central and northern KS, even with a lack of better upper level support. A drop in temps could occur if that front is able to move southward into east-central KS. Otherwise, typical summer like heat is expected as we approach the solstice. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions are forecast with the main challenge being chances for thunderstorms overnight into early tomorrow morning. Have kept VCTS at MHK where confidence is better as a broken line of storms looks to approach from central KS. General weakening is expected as storms move east-northeastward, so confidence is not as high at Topeka sites, which may be far enough south to avoid any remaining activity. Recent HRRR runs have hinted at the possibility of a few additional showers or storms backbuilding near TOP/FOE later Saturday morning, but would like to see more consistency in that idea before mentioning in TAFs. Outside of convection, east winds look to veer to the south by morning and become gusty through the day. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Picha