Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/11/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
949 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near average temperatures expected today and Tuesday. Highs on
Wednesday will reach a crescendo with most locations reaching
the 80s. 90 degree readings are possible in the southern James
River Valley of North Dakota.
- A 20 to 40 percent chance of showers returns Wednesday
evening. Higher precipitation chances are then forecast
Friday night through the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Showers continue to push east along an eastward moving frontal
boundary, with clouds clearing west into central in the front`s
wake. Expect all precipitation over western and central ND to be
to the east by midnight, with temperatures dropping into the
lower to mid 50s overnight.
UPDATE
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Band of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continues to
push east, with another area of convection moving into western
ND early this evening. The overall severe threat has ended, with
instability quickly dissipating the past couple of hours. Main
update was to modify POPs based on latest radar imagery and
trends.
UPDATE
Issued at 449 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Allowed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to expire. Storms are
moving into a much less favorable environment as they move
east, with instability expected to greatly diminish elsewhere
southwest with time now through early this evening. ALl products
have been updates.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
The bottom line up front is that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued for Bowman and Adams County until 9 pm MDT. As such,
the main forecast challenge for today is the potential for
severe weather this afternoon and early evening especially for
far southwestern ND.
Presently, an embedded surface low circulation is located in eastern
Montana into northeastern Wyoming within an area of elongated
low pressure from Alberta, through eastern Montana, and into
western South Dakota. Aloft, a shortwave sliding through the
Dakotas is resulting in continued WAA across the forecast area
this afternoon, which should be the primary forcing mechanism
for continued showers and thunderstorms.
The aforementioned surface low pressure circulation will drift east
northeast through North Dakota today. Associated warm frontal
boundary on a north to south axis, along with trailing cold
frontal boundary, will slide across South Dakota. As a result,
the front northern extent will quickly become occluded. Factors
that favor severe weather in the southwest are that the RAP
suggests a narrow swath of 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE in the southwest,
along with adequate shear of 30 to 35 kts of 0 to 6 km bulk
shear. In addition, DCAPE values are generally not impressive,
but a narrow ribbon in excess of 900 J/kg is possible as well in
the far southwest. Besides the southwest, the RAP also suggests
up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE in the west central and northwest.
However, with excess cloud cover present and having been so all
day, along with morning and early afternoon showers and
thunderstorms working the atmosphere, sufficient instability
may be hard to find in the west central and northwest. Therefore
the severe weather threat seems very low in all but the far
southwest.
Any severe weather threat should end by late evening. At that
point, showers, along with a few thunderstorms, will end from
west to east. Skies will also clear out and Tuesday will feature
a mostly sunny and dry day with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Other than a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers in the far south
Wednesday evening through Wednesday night, mostly dry
conditions are expected through the remainder of the workweek.
More widespread precipitation chances then return to the area
Friday night, through the weekend, and into next week. Models
are not in full agreement as to how this will play out, but the
potential exists for southwesterly flow aloft as strong upper
low pressure slides through southern Canada, potentially with
troughing into the southwestern CONUS.
Overall, expect temperatures to gradually increase before
reaching a crescendo on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to
upper 80s (possibly with a few 90 degree readings). Temperatures
will then become seasonable again for the latter half of the
week. Lows in the 50s will prevail through the period, though
occasional drops into the 40s or remnants in the low 60s are
possible various nights.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Widespread showers are occurring across much of central ND
early this evening, and will continue to push east over the next
few hours. Overall instability has decreased significantly,
with limited thunder potential from here on out. Will maintain a
vicinity thunderstorm mention at times. While VFR ceilings and
visibility are generally expected to prevail most of the time,
conditions will deteriorate during any showers and
thunderstorms. This includes lowered ceilings, reduced
visibility, and erratic winds.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend begins today and persists through Thursday with
afternoon highs reaching to low 100s Thursday.
- Showers/thunderstorms are possible Thursday night along a weak
cold front, favoring the northern zones.
- Another chance for precipitation exists sometime around
Saturday, favoring the western half of our area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveal rather weak 500-mb flow is in place above the central
plains as the main belt of the subtropical jet is displaced just
to the north. At the surface, a ~1002-mb low is spread out
across eastern MT/WY/CO, supporting southeasterly winds over
southwest KS. Throughout the short term period, ensembles agree
500-mb heights will gradually rise as a ridge begins to build
atop the southern plains, along with generally southerly surface
winds as the surface low tracks east ahead of an upper level
shortwave impulse riding the US/Canada border. These factors
will contribute to a quiet, warming trend for our area, as
afternoon highs increase from the low 80s today to the mid/upper
80s tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles
agree southwest KS will be along the interface of a building
ridge over the southern plains and the subtropical jet,
resulting in weak northwesterly 500-mb flow. As the ridge
continues to build and move east Wednesday and Thursday, the
warming trend will march on with afternoon highs increasing
from the mid 90s Wednesday to the low 100s Thursday. Thursday
night, a weak cold front attached to a surface low over central
Quebec, Canada, will sag south into our area before washing out
early Friday. Ensembles suggests showers and thunderstorms may
accompany this front, as probability of QPF > 0.01" increases
into the 30-60% range favoring the northern zones. Severe storms
may be possible with this activity as well, however confidence
is low at the moment.
Daytime Friday, ensembles suggest the upper level ridge will
begin to weaken and shift east as a compact shortwave trough
moves east-northeast from near the CA/AZ border across the
Desert Southwest. As this feature approaches, decreasing 500-mb
heights should support a slight cooldown in temperatures with
afternoon highs dropping into the 90s Friday through the end of
the period. Additionally, this wave will reinvigorate the
precipitation chances for southwest KS. Both the ECMWF EPS and
GEFS indicate probability of QPF > 0.01" reaching the 60-90%
range for roughly the western half of our CWA, centered around
the late Friday night to Saturday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
VFR flight category with winds generally 15 kts or less through
the time period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening
and overnight. The main threat will be lightning.
- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening, especially in west central Minnesota
and the southern Red River Valley.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Rain has continued to spread east with reports in the 0.1-0.25"
range where the moderate activity had been tracking in the
Devils Lake Basin. The leading edge of the activity is just now
in the immediate RRV but where lighter returns are activity is
struggling to overcome the low level dry layer at the onset,
which is similar to what we saw happen in the Devils Lake area
before rain finally started. Where moderate returns are showing
up aloft we are starting to see rain (such as here at the NWS
office). The general forecast is on track, so no major changes
during this update cycle.
UPDATE
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Rain showers are increasing in coverage across our west with
reports of rain reaching the surface now where returns are
greater than 35dbz on radar, and the activity is filling in
just west of our CWA, matching trends from CAMs/HREF mean.
Saturation of the dry layer should continue as this pushes
east, so while initially there may be virga we are on track for
a swath of light to moderate rain across our forecast area this
evening and overnight. I increased PoPs and adjusted timing to
reflect these trends. Lighting activity has been minimal, and
instability has been limited based on RAP analysis (100 J/kg or
less), limiting thunderstorm potential/impacts. Indications
from CAMs support a consistent 0.1-0.3" rainfall event where
this tracks, though there could be some locations as high as
0.5" (25% chance).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
...Synopsis...
Several troughs and shortwaves are set to traverse the Northern
Plains in the coming days, with the first expected to bring rain and
isolated thunderstorms to the area this evening and tonight. There
will be minimal instability with this first system, with the
expectation of mainly embedded thunderstorms. For Tuesday, lingering
showers and storms move east of the area by around midday, with
shortwave ridging building in from west to east.
...Potentially Strong Storms Wednesday...
Our next trough moves into the area Wednesday following a brief
amplification of an H5 ridge late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
There are a number of possible scenarios that could unfold Wednesday
with impacts scaling with timing. Most guidance is now bringing the
best forcing through the area very early in the afternoon, which
would still allow for strong storms, but with lower coverage. CAPE
still has at least a 70 percent chance to exceed 2000 J/Kg,
primarily in west-central Minnesota and the southern Red River
Valley. Alternatively, a slower and deeper trough allows the H5
ridge to build into the area and bring additional moisture further
north Wednesday afternoon, thus expanding the area of potentially
severe thunderstorms well into northwest Minnesota and the central
Red River Valley. Shear will be favorable in both scenarios, with
low level (0-3 Km) shear upwards of 20-30 knots, and deep layer (0-6
Km) shear in the range of 50-60 knots. Model soundings have been
consistently showing dry air in the mid levels, both increasing
our lapse rates, and providing a favorable environment for RIJ
development. Overall, this would mainly be a wind threat,
associated with hybrid clusters and possibly line segments;
however, supercells could briefly develop early in the process.
Another shortwave and H5 upper low pushes through on Thursday, with
little instability to work with in the wake of Wednesday`s system.
Look for mainly embedded storms, with the possibility of an isolated
stronger storm during the early to mid afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Rain showers will continue to overspread eastern ND this evening
and move into northwest MN around or after 06Z before pushing
east of the region Tuesday morning. As moisture increases, MVFR
(low chance for IFR) ceilings develop along/head of the cold
front and should impact all sites late this evening into the
early morning hours Tuesday. There is a chance (20-30%) for
thunderstorms embedded with the larger area of rain, but chances
are too low to include win TAFs and trends currently do not
show lightning activity within rain upstream of our sites. Winds
should increase from the southeast then shift to the west as
the front pushes east tonight, with westerly winds gusting as
high as 30kt Tuesday.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1026 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler than normal and pleasant weather will hold
through mid-week.
- Hot weather arrives late this week, with highs in low to mid 90s
taking hold by Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024
Sky/cloud cover continues to be the trickiest part of the
overnight forecast, with some areas of clear skies and others
overcast. Models suggest areas east of I-75 and near/along the
Hal Rogers Parkway have the highest probability of sustained cloud
cover. Sky grids use a blend of CONShort, HRRR, and NBM to reflect
this thinking. The forecast is on track otherwise, with hourly
observations blended into the gridded forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024
Quite the difficult cloud cover forecast tonight as a large area
of stratus clouds sits over the Ohio River Valley poised to move
southeast into the area. The problem is that models don`t seem to
be resolving this area of clouds. Blended in the HRRR with the
previous Sky grid forecast through tonight, which results in
increased cloud cover at times.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track with little in the way of any
significant changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 326 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024
The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front is in the
process of pushing across eastern Kentucky this afternoon. We are
seeing NW flow at JKL likely indicating the passage of the front.
This front will lead to some wind gusts of 15-20 mph at times this
afternoon under decent mixing from the front. The other issue has
been more cloud cover and this has limited some locations form
achieving the afternoon high particularly in somewhat higher
terrain areas given the cold air advection. Overall lowered
afternoon highs in some locations toward the 25 percentile.
Outside this the post frontal stratus noted upstream will be
somewhat a challenge tonight, as the models including the HREF are
struggling to handle the progression southward of this. Overall
seems like it has been behaving and staying just short of eastern
Kentucky. This will be particularly interesting as ensembles and
deterministic guidance show a shortwave pushing southward late
tonight. This will put overnight lows in question, with more
clouds it could limit the ridge/valley splits. However, right now
we will keep the mid to upper 40s in the valleys and upper 40s to
lower 50s elsewhere.
This frontal boundary will usher in drier and cooler airmass for
Tuesday, with PWAT values in the 0.5 to 0.6 range based on the
HREF. This is around 2 standard deviations below normal for June.
In the mid-levels, ensembles and deterministic guidance are in
good agreement that we will see shortwave ridging leading to
rising heights. There could be a few pancake cumulus at around 4
kft, but expect mostly sunny skies Tuesday, with highs in the low
to mid 70s. Afternoon highs like this are around 5-10 degrees
below normals for JKL and LOZ climate sites for this time of year.
The skies will clear for Tuesday night and could once again lead
to ridge/valley temperatures splits with lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s in the valleys and low to mid 50s on the ridges.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 406 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024
It`s the tale of the big bubble no trouble...almost.
High pressure will be in control across the state to start the
period Wednesday. This will continue through Thursday and into
Thursday night. As of 0Z Friday, a low pressure system will be
passing just north of the Great Lakes. This will drop a cold front
southeastward. Along this front, models show some light scattered
precip developing. It`s not super strong, and doesn`t look to
strengthen. The front won`t make it through the state until Friday
night, but can`t rule out a brief shower occurring in the CWA as it
moves through. The latest NBM is trending precip downward, only
showing one hour with pops in the slight chance category. But
something to watch for.
Once that system exits, another round of high pressure takes hold
from the north. This will persist into Sunday, before the next
system attempts to move into the region. The NBM has some pops making
it into the southern CWA along return southerly flow Sunday, but the
best chances (though still slim) will occur on Monday. It`s been
noted that with every run, the precip chances and system keeps
getting pushed back later and later. Obviously given that this is
Day 7 and 8, there is still room for change. Also, given the strong
upper level high pressure system, it`s going to be hard for good
lift and instability to make it into the region.
Perhaps the biggest story for this extended period is actually the
temperatures. With mostly sunny skies and upper level ridging will
keep good radiational heating across the region. Temperatures,
therefore, will be on a warming trend. Wednesdays highs will still
be fairly mild, in low 80s. By Thursday and Friday we will see upper
80s and low 90s. The cold front that moves through Friday night
will be very meager at best, and even with light northerly flow
on Saturday, highs will still be in the upper 80s to around 90.
From here, our location on the southerly extent of a surface high
and under a strong upper level ridge will only amplify the
temperatures. Highs on Sunday are currently forecast in the mid
90s, with heat indexes touching 100 degrees in a few locations. A
similar set up may be on tap for Monday as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024
A somewhat difficult cig forecast as the forecast begins with VFR
conditions with cigs ranging from FEW040 to BKN040. Meanwhile, a
stratus layer of clouds at 3.5 kft to 4.5 kft continues to drift
south toward the area. Models do not handle this stratus layer
well at all. Given current trends will have the BKN035 to BKN040
moving south and impacting TAF sites later tonight into Tuesday
morning. If skies were to clear tonight there could be another
round of valley fog, but TAF sites should stay VFR. Winds will be
light this evening into the overnight, with north winds developing
Tuesday afternoon at less than 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
724 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Radar imagery from this morning revealed a remnant MCV spinning over
the southern Texas Panhandle. Light shower activity and weak
thunderstorms continue to linger around the surface low, especially
along the eastern and northern flanks due to deformation and ample
low level moisture. Midlevel satellite water vapor imagery and RAP
analysis shows the deepening upper low across eastern New Mexico and
midlevel moisture creeping back into southeast New Mexico. Winds
will increase aloft with better forcing and slightly better shear
for storms this afternoon and evening. At the surface, skies have
begun to clear behind the MCV with temperatures warming into the mid
70s. With ample low level moisture in place, a field of cumulus
clouds have developed across the southern South Plains where skies
cleared out earlier this morning. Meanwhile, where the morning
showers continue to persist, temperatures a bit slower to warm.
Early afternoon showers and storms are possible along this
differential heating boundary, specifically across the northern
South Plains. A few of these storms may become strong to marginally
severe with weak instability of less than 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
little bulk shear across this specific area. The main attention
getter for storms today will be the shortwave associated with a weak
surface low in eastern New Mexico that has already helped to
intitate storms along the mountains near Ruidoso. With the surface
troughing and the deepening low with increased flow aloft, these
storms are expected to maintain strength and impact the southern
portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains later this afternoon
and evening. Large hail up to golf ball size may be possible with
some of the stronger updrafts, but the main threat will be damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph as the storms become linear and develop into
a potential MCS late tonight as they pass over the I-27/US 87
corridor near Lubbock and southward. Storms are expected to be
moving slightly faster with the increased steering flow aloft, but
all in all storm motion will likely be easterly at 10 to 20 mph.
With the recent rainfall last night and this morning, additional
rainfall with moderate to heavy rain rates this afternoon and
evening may lead to flooding concerns.
Precipitation chances will end from west to east through tomorrow
morning, but there is a slight chance for some lingering shower
activity off the Caprock tomorrow afternoon as the surface low
pushes eastward into northwest Texas. Breaking skies tomorrow will
help to give way to warmer temperatures into the 80s, especially
across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and South Plains where
precipitation chances into tomorrow are much less. Elsewhere,
temperatures may be a bit trick and struggle to warm above the 70s
with lingering cloud cover due to continued shower and thunderstorm
activity (as mentioned above).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
A general warming and drying trend will take place across the region
beginning on Wednesday as the slow-moving upper trough finally exits
to our east and a relatively compact upper level ridge axis
establishes over the Four Corners region. Dry and mostly sunny
conditions will therefore return on Wednesday as large scale
subsidence spreads overhead, but high temperatures will remain near
or just below normal with a very moist low level airmass still in
place. The upper ridge axis will shift a bit eastward Thursday into
Friday and center over eastern New Mexico which will bring a return
of highs mainly in the middle 90s. Most models also depict some
midlevel moisture trapped beneath the ridge which should result in
scattered convection developing off the New Mexico high terrain
Thursday afternoon. Steering flow will be weak enough such that this
activity should remain confined to our west, and will therefore keep
PoPs sub-mentionable through Thursday night, but overall we still cannot
rule out a stray storm Thursday especially over the SW TX Panhandle.
The upper ridge will then de-amplify beginning on Friday as a
fairly potent mid/upper level trough quickly lifts northeastward
through the desert southwest. Combined with respectable low level
moisture still in place locally and PWATs still near one inch,
this should result in additional and potentially more widespread
storm activity over eastern New Mexico which may drift into
portions of West Texas on both Friday and Saturday evenings. Given
the long lead time will maintain broad mentionable PoPs through
the first half of the weekend, but storm potential still looks
highest near and west of the TX/NM state line. Despite this
additional storm potential, layer thicknesses will remain elevated
which favors a continuation of above normal temperatures this
weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
A line of thunderstorms is moving through LBB and PVW at the start
of this TAF period. These thunderstorms are capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, hail, and heavy downpours.
Confidence on this activity hitting CDS remains too low at this
time to include a prevailing mention there. Behind this activity
VFR conditions are expected to return to the terminals with fairly
light winds.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...58