Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/08/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1040 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain likely across much of the area (50-90% chance) overnight
and into Saturday morning. Rain chances (50-70%) have
increased across portions of northeast IA and southwestern WI.
- Below normal temperatures expected this weekend and early next
week. An isolated shower or two are possible late Saturday and
Sunday (10-20% chance).
- Warming trend is expected with temperatures trending above
normal by the second half of next week. Highs will reach well
into the 80s for much of the local area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Tonight - Saturday: Rain Likely Overnight, Isolated Thunder Possible
Current surface analysis shows low pressure centered over the pan
handle of Nebraska with southerly flow advecting moisture north in a
somewhat narrow ribbon 3/4ers the width of the state. The 60F
dewpoint line has rapidly shot north to near I-80 with radar showing
elevated /10ft/ showers and storms across SD into nwrn IA early this
afternoon. This area is associated with a strong area of 600-700mb
frontogenesis within the MuCAPE gradient of 250-750 J/Kg per SPC,
with the heart of the MUCAPE pool further southwest over wrn NE/CO.
Per latest RAP guidance, this elevated forcing /fgen/ translates
east today in swift zonal flow, grazing northeast IA closer to I-35
early this evening, however without the elevated instability /which
spreads in late tonight/. With the low-level ridging and dry air
mass holding firm across the Upper Miss Valley, would think this
will translate into thick clouds at 10kft and scattered very light
showers or sprinkles.
GOES water vapor showing a well-formed shortwave trough in northwest
flow dropping southeast through srn Saska/Alberta at 18Z. Short term
model consensus has moderate 300-500mb QVector convergence along and
north of I-90 Saturday morning with moderate isentropic lift through
the low-levels as well with this wave. As the low-level southwest
flow increases late tonight as the ridge axis pushes east, low
MUCAPE instability /100-300 J/Kg/ does shift in near and south of I-
90, and is speed convergent, isentropically upgliding. Have a hard
time believing showers would not be present south of I-90 with
isolated thunder too after about 3 am. At that same time, a cold
front with the northwest flow trough is heading through MN, moving
through the area Saturday morning into very early Saturday
afternoon. This will act to prolong the period of showers Saturday
and there is some timing spread among the CAMS. So, forecast will
paint a little bit bigger window than may actually occur and
hopefully timing can be refined in the next 12 hours. So, continued
very high rain chances near and I-90 and north late tonight into
Saturday, and increased them southward into northeast IA and
southwest WI /60%/...with clearing trying to work in post-frontal in
the afternoon from NW->SE.
Saturday Night - Monday: Cool, Slight Shower Chances
Heading through the rest of the weekend, temperatures will continue
to remain on the cooler side of average with highs consistently
shown in guidance to remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s areawide,
roughly around 5-10 degrees below normal. Monday will likely be
the coolest day with the 07.00z grand ensemble (GEFS/EC
ens/Canadian ens) showing an inter-quartile range of 66 to 72
degrees for highs at La Crosse with a median of 70 degrees. A
few showers and storms are possible late Saturday and Sunday
with continued cyclonic flow in place allowing for cooler air
aloft enabling some diurnal instability. However, this is fairly
inconsistent between different CAMs runs so will hold with
lower precipitation chances (10-20%) for now.
Tuesday - Friday: Warming Trend, Shower/Storm Chances
As we approach the middle of next week, deterministic guidance shows
a weak shortwave trough progressing towards our region. While
deterministic guidance has come into some more agreement on how this
trough will manifest, still lots of questions with available
moisture and any instability associated with it. Consequently,
confidence still remains not the highest with the 07.06z GEFS
showing around 50-70% chance for measurable precipitation with this
wave. As a result, have some increase in precipitation chances
(20-40% chance) with the recent NBM for Tuesday but will still
need to assess, either way would likely be very light amounts
and have minimal thunder chances.
Otherwise, the other story for next week, mainly into Wednesday is
an upper-level ridge will progress east and flatten as it inches its
way into our region. While this will help warm temperatures some,
northwest flow appears to maintain through the period which should
keep temperatures from trending well above normal when also
considering the 07.00z EFI shows minimal signal for
significantly above normal temperatures. Consequently, expecting
highs to get as warm as the middle to upper 80s, perhaps a 90
in a few spots. Thursday currently appears to be the warmest day
next work week with the NBM percentiles showing an inter-
quartile range of 84 to 91 degrees with a median of 87 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Scattered showers moving west to east at 08.04Z ushering in VFR
cloud deck. Widespread precipitation chances will be slow to
usher east as low level dry air sustains for a short time
locally. Eventually, widespread precipitation chances reach the
local area overnight into early Saturday morning, ushering in
MVFR clouds. No visibility restrictions expected as intensity
expected to remain light. Model guidance is optimistic to lift
as the precipitation forcing quickly moves east into central
Wisconsin into Saturday afternoon.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baumgardt/Naylor
AVIATION...JAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
834 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers (20 percent chance for rain) are forecast for
Saturday. High temperatures to remain near to slightly below
seasonable normals. There is a 10 percent chance of showers
during the day Sunday, increasing to 30 percent at night.
- Widespread chances (20 to 50 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms to be found Monday.
- Cooler temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. How much
cooler still remains uncertain. Moderate to high confidence
remains for warmer temperatures during the middle of next
week with high temperatures into the 80s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Showers continue mainly in the center through east central
parts of the state. These showers will continue moving east
through the evening hours. There are also scattered popcorn
showers in southern Canada heading towards northern parts of the
state. However, these will likely dissipate as the sun continues
to set. No lightning strikes have been observed for about 45
minutes as of this time. A few more lightning strikes aren`t
totally out of the question, though no instability is being
analyzed on the mesoanalysis page. This suggests less than 250
J/kg of MUCAPE is present, and any limited instability that does
remain will continue to decrease as the sun sets.
UPDATE
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Previously quasi-stationary frontal boundary has steadily been
sinking south and is presently over the southernmost tier of
counties. A couple of weak thunderstorms had developed in
eastern Adams and southern Grant counties. The former moved into
South Dakota and the latter has weakened. It remains possible
that a brief strong thunderstorm could develop in far southern
ND, though is looking less and less likely. As the frontal
boundary continues into South Dakota, any remaining threat for
strong storms will diminish over the next hour or so.
Otherwise, scattered showers continue in central North Dakota.
Recently, there were a few lightning strikes in southern McLean
County. However, with the lack of instability, any embedded
thundershowers should be few and far between. These showers will
continue working through to the east southeast and exit the
forecast area late this evening, or shortly after midnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
A weak disturbance in northwest flow could still bring showers
and thunderstorms through this evening. SPC maintains a
Marginal Risk of severe weather in southcentral and portions of
southwestern North Dakota through this evening. The threat for
severe weather overall looks very isolated today. Some HRRR
CAMS are showing an isolated stronger storm later this afternoon
into this evening across these marginal risk areas. There is
abundant shear in this area during this time period. The bigger
concern though is the lack of instability. HREF ensemble data
showing MUCAPE up to 500 J/KG. While surface based CAPE is
higher in some instances, the elevated nature of today`s
convection would be tough to tap into this. A quick change from
easterly flow at the surface to westerly flow aloft could be
adding some SRH and perhaps promote weak rotation in isolated
storms, yet again this would require surface based storms. More
looking into the elevated storm environment the hodographs
become more straight. This could still help with hail
production, especially given the high amounts of shear. The
concern still remains the lack of instability. There is a weak
warm front boundary setting up as well in these Marginal Risk
areas. If a stronger storm can get going along this boundary and
pulse up, then perhaps hail up to an inch in diameter and wind
gusts up to 60 mph are possible. For now kept messaging sub
severe as this is where our highest confidence currently
resides given the lack of instability. Precipitation activity
should diminish shortly after midnight tonight. Look for
overnight lows to be in the 40s, and light winds tonight as they
switch back to a westerly direction. A broad upper low then
looks to linger in southern Canada for Saturday maintaining the
near to slightly below normal temperatures across the CWA. The
unsettled northwest flow could result in a few isolated showers
Saturday, with the higher confidence areas coming in the north
where a weak frontal boundary may help with lift. Instability
lacks even more than today, thus left our mention of
thunderstorms for Saturday. Northwest winds may increase
slightly for Saturday, yet be below advisory criteria. Sunday
still remains a day of uncertainty as temperature and
precipitation chances will highly depend on how far south this
cut off low can progress. Clusters are about 50/50 on the low`s
location which brings quite the spread in temperatures. There is
somewhat of consensus that below normal temperatures will be
found. How cold will depend on this location. NBM may have
raised slightly today compared to last night, although this may
be the trend until more model consensus can be found. NBM also
keeps Sunday mainly dry for the time being, again dependent on
the lows placement. A wave moving across the Pacific North West
could then lift across the area Sunday night through Monday.
This will linger cooler temperatures, yet make the next chance
for widespread showers and thunderstorms. There is a high amount
of shear during this time period, although instability looks
limited. The chance for severe weather perhaps will need to be
monitored going forward given the amount of shear available. One
last note for the weekend, cooler temperatures could also be
found in the morning with perhaps some upper 30s possible Sunday
morning.
Ridging to flat ridging could then be found through mid next
week. This westerly flow could bring some warming temperatures,
with NBM placing highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s for much of the
CWA. Flat ridging could promote a few weak waves in the flow and
possibly bring a shower or thunderstorm at times. Predictability
is low for this pattern at this time and left in NBM PoPs for
now. Clusters then indicate perhaps a return to a broad trough
or at least northwest flow pattern. This may slightly cool the
temperatures and bring more chances for showers and
thunderstorms. CSU-MLP putting in some slight chances for severe
weather mid to late next week. These chances are isolated to scattered
and will have to be monitored going forward.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Scattered showers are present in central ND. These will
continue to gradually work east southeast through the evening.
KJMS seems like the terminal most likely to see any shower
activity, with KBIS having a chance as well. A few lightning
strikes are possible over the next couple hours before the
threat ends as the sun sets. In addition to this evening, there
is also a slight chance of showers for the western half of the
state and in the north Saturday afternoon. Other than during any
shower activity, VFR ceilings and visibility will prevail
through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Telken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1100 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent Northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level
troughs will keep it cooler, breezy and pleasant heading into
the weekend with low humidity. After another round of showers
Sunday morning, we expect a reinforcement of cool air Monday
preceding a warming trend towards the middle and end of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Plenty of high based stratocu and altocu clouds covered much of
Central and Northern PA this evening as a well defined mid
level thermal trough with a positive tilt (from Central NY to
the Middle Ohio River Valley) slides east across the CWA. Latest
RAP guidance shows pockets of 200-300 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE
associated with this trough and some light spotty showers along
the I-80 corridor.
This area of clouds will gradually spread over the Middle and
Lower Susq Valley before decreasing in coverage late tonight.
Low temps around daybreak Sat in the 50-60F range are within a
few degrees either side of early June climo. Partial clearing
could allow patchy fog to form toward daybreak Saturday in the
deeper east- central valleys, but the dry air and persistent
westerly breeze should maintain good visibility in most places.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Vertical mixing up to around 5 KFT AGL by Late Sat morning will
be sufficient to mix out most of the lower clouds, leaving some
flat cu and higher based Altocu or Cirrus for the afternoon.
WNW Wind gusts should be in the 20 to 25 mph range during the
late morning and afternoon hours Saturday. With the temporary
departure of the cold pocket of air aloft, afternoon max temps
will be 4 or 5 deg F warmer than today (Friday) with the NW Mtns
seeing a 6-8 deg F rebound. Little day to day temp diff will be
seen across the Lower Susq Valley on Saturday. Saturday`s highs
will be in the 70-80F range from NW to SE across the CWA.
Model consensus continues to indicate the next period of
showers from late Saturday night into Sunday morning as another
shortwave trough and cold front move through the region. The
showers will be most numerous acrs the NW part of the state, and
gradually diminish as the move across the Middle and Lower Susq
Valley. Continued breezy and relatively cool for this time of
year with max/min temps near to below the historical avg. for
early June.
Temps Sunday will dip just a little compared to those on
Saturday. Another moderately breeze day is in store for Sunday
with gusts from the WNW in the low to mid 20s (MPH).
Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days.
The approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front
dropping SE from the Glakes will bring more clouds than sun,
along with some afternoon and evening showers across primarily
the Central and NW 2/3rds of the state.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Tuesday. After that,
we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late week.
There could be some showers by late week, as cold fronts drop
southeastward across the area. Low level moisture appears to be
limited at this point. However, past experience is that such a
pattern provides the potential for isolated strong storms if
moisture gets advected into the area.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will gradually weaken as we head into the late evening
hours. Expect CIGS (consisting mainly of high based stratocu and
alto cu) to stay mainly in the VFR range, but a brief period of
lower CIGS may be possible at BFD, thus used a TEMPO group at
BFD.
Winds will pick up again on Saturday just after sunrise. The
depth of vertical mixing increases to 5-6 kft AGL in the late
morning and afternoon hours with peak gusts in the 20 to 25 mph
range).
A fast moving cold front will bring a chance of a few showers
Sunday (mainly during the morning hours).
Outlook...
Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns, MVFR cigs linger into midday
north and west of the Allegheny Front. A chance of a few
showers.
Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
LONG TERM...Martin/Evanego
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) Severe thunderstorms this evening
with damaging straight line winds 60-70 mph the greatest risk.
- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) also for Saturday evening, as a
larger thunderstorm complex likely to develop with severe wind
gusts and a greater probability of 1"+ rainfall across much of
southwest Kansas (30 to 50% chance).
- Shower and Thunderstorm chances continue, albeit lower, Sunday
and Monday, but core of highest rainfall likely just south of
southwest Kansas.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
** MESOSCALE DISCUSSION **
Surface-based thunderstorms were developing along a leeside
trough axis where boundary layer convergence was greatest within
region of 0-3km AGL lapse rates greater than 9 degC/km. Kansas
State mesonet observations of dewpoints out west were higher
than HRRR, which has a bias of over-mixing dewpoints after a wet
period. For instance, 21Z dewpoints were in the 62-64F range as
far west as a Lakin to Sublette line. Initial thunderstorms were
forming in the drier airmass, but once storms tap in to the
lower to mid 60s dewpoints, we expect the severe weather risk to
increase, especially as individual cells begin to interact and a
cold pool becomes established with damaging straight line winds
being the most likely risk, particularly in the 23Z to 02Z time
frame...which is the most likely 3-hour window for severe across
our forecast area. The new Severe Thunderstorm Watch #396
includes all 27 counties of the NWS DDC forecast area, which
runs through 03Z (10 PM CDT).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
The main forecast challenge will be severity and timing of severe
storms along with precipitation amounts for the first mesoscale
convective system (MCS) event this evening.
Early morning showers and weak thunderstorms moved into central
Kansas early in the afternoon with temperatures recovering into the
mid 80s as far east as Hays to Dodge City. West toward the Colorado
line, afternoon temperatures were warming well into the lower to mid
90s. Dewpoint temperatures were holding on nicely with afternoon
boundary layer mixing not having much impact on lowering
dewpoints...at least through 1830Z. Surface wind convergence along
the leeside trough will continue to strengthen through the afternoon
across far southeast Colorado, which is where initial thunderstorm
development is expected to occur. Most of the convection-allowing
models (CAMs) have the first storms developing in the 20-21Z time
frame (3-4PM CDT) with further development into far southwest and
west central Kansas not long after.
If the surface dewpoints do not mix out as much as the HRRR model
indicates, we will likely see scattered severe storms not long after
convective initiation from Elkhart northeast to Garden City up to
Scott City. Forecast hodographs do support at least some modest
storm organization, including a marginal supercell or two, however
temperature-dewpoint spreads of 35+ degrees (F) will strongly favor
outflow dominant storms and a transition to quasilinear structure(s)
as cold pools become more prevalent. A few wind gusts in the 65 to
70 mph range will be possible, and while a large hail threat will
exist with more discrete storms, the high wet-bulb zero heights and
large evaporative cooling potential early in the event will likely
limit very large hail. If we see storms later in the evening tap
upper 60s dewpoints along/east of Highway 283, the probability of
severe events will ramp up...at least until boundary layer cools off
too much after sunset.
Going in to Saturday, cool northeasterly winds will likely prevail
across much of western Kansas in the wake of tonight/early Saturday
morning`s MCSs, therefore the degree of warmup in the afternoon is
at least a little bit in question. The latest NBM 50th percentile
temperatures for Saturday afternoon are in the mid to upper 80s
along and north of the Arkansas River (89 to 93F south), which is a
good forecast for now, because if clouds do clear out, the early
June insolation should help temperatures rebound quickly, despite
the easterly winds. This will set the stage for what looks to be a
fairly impressive MCS later Saturday Night (more on that in the Long
Term section).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
At the onset of this Long Term Period, Saturday evening,
strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be underway across eastern
Colorado about to move into western Kansas. Nearly every model, both
CAM and non-CAM, shows a substantial MCS signal moving across west
central/southwest Kansas, and for that reason, POPs have been
increased to 70-80% for the Saturday Night period. The Storm
Prediction Center has upgraded the severe outlook to a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5), but there is some support for an even higher risk
outlook if models continue to show such strong support, backing up
traditional conceptual models of early-mid June western Kansas MCS
patterns. Low level moisture will not be a problem, along with low
level winds from the east-southeast providing long moisture
transport vectors into MCS(s). Much of the DDC CWA is within the
latest WPC QPF of 1"+, including Dodge City and Garden City. The
west-northwest to east-southeast axis of highest QPF is still likely
to shift slightly to the south or north, however any shift will not
likely be by much.
After Saturday Night`s system, cooler, more stable air will will
follow on Sunday which will likely push much of Sunday evening`s MCS
to the south of our southwest Kansas region. For that reason, POPs
Sunday Night will be highest in the far southwest portion of our
area (Morton County). On Monday/Monday Night, global models are
showing a mid level disturbance in vicinity of southwest Kansas down
into West Texas, which will likely aid in another MCS or two, so
POPs will remain in the forecast (mainly 30-40%). This mid level
weakness will likely then move east/southeast of our forecast area
Tuesday which will result in a drier forecast. Toward the end of
this forecast period, temperatures should warm back up as an upper
level ridge axis expands across New Mexico into southern Colorado
and adjacent West Texas/southwest Kansas
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
In general we should have VFR flight category for all terminals
during the time period. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of the LBL and GCK
terminals through 01z, DDC terminal between 01-03Z and the HYS
terminal between 01-04Z. Storms will have an environment to
produce downburst winds greater than 50 kts. After 04Z storms
should exit the region and we will be left with mid level clouds
through the morning on Saturday. Skies should clear out by late
morning.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move through the
region from northwest to southeast late tonight into early
Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and
locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards.
- Additional rounds of storms are possible tomorrow afternoon
and tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Marginally
severe storms and locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
The current synoptic weather pattern across the CONUS is defined
by a mid level low over southern Ontario with associated
troughing over the eastern Great Lakes into portions of northern
Appalachia with a mid level high over Texas. Mid level flow over
western Missouri and eastern Kansas remains out of the WNW
between these two features. At the surface, high pressure
remains in place overhead, with generally fair skies,
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and a southerly breeze.
A mid level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over western
Nebraska will continue to the east southeast today and tonight,
with a deepening surface low developing over north central
Nebraska. Severe storms have already begun to initiate over
north central Nebraska as of 230 pm. Meanwhile, further to the
south out over central Kansas, a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms has also developed within an area characterized by
low to mid 60 dewpoints. This should continue to move to the
east through the afternoon hours, but should weaken as it
approaches our CWA as it enters into a drier low level
environment. However, storms over north central Nebraska should
move southeast through the afternoon hours, growing upscale into
a mesoscale convective system and moving northwest to southeast
through the region late this evening into the early overnight
hours. The primary hazard with these storms would be the
potential for damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 70 mph and locally
heavy rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 inches.
Another subtle shortwave/disturbance moves across the Plains
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Scattered storms may develop by mid
to late afternoon toward central Missouri, quickly moving
eastward out of our region. Severe convection is likely to
develop across eastern Colorado and western Kansas by tomorrow
afternoon, moving eastward through the evening hours and growing
upscale into another MCS, moving through our region late
tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Marginal severe
weather may be possible (60 mph winds and up to quarter sized
hail), but the bigger concern will be the threat for an
additional round of locally moderate to heavy rainfall on top of
what falls tonight, which could create some flooding concerns.
Convective allowing models disagree a bit with the exact
placement of the MCS tomorrow night, with the NAM Nest taking
the heavier rain south of the KC metro, but the 18z HRRR
dropping another 1-2 inches over the KC metro.
Other than slight chance PoPs on Tuesday afternoon, the region
should remain generally dry for Sunday afternoon through
Thursday. Temperatures should be cooler, closer to seasonal
normals, for Sunday through Tuesday with warmer temperatures
returning for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
VFR conditions are expected to last for the next few hours. As
showers and thunderstorms from the east begin to move over the area,
expect conditions to worsen. Showers are anticipated to last until
around 10Z. Winds will shift from the south to the north by Saturday
morning and remain around 10 knots or less. VFR conditions are
expected to return by tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Collier
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
944 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A decaying thunderstorm complex will arrive late tonight into
early Saturday morning...with the highest rain chances (60-90%)
focused along/south of a Macomb to Mattoon line.
- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue for the
next several days before the return of summertime warmth with
temperatures in the middle to upper 80s by the end of next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
The only change to the forecast this evening was a slight
northward pull of PoPs tomorrow (Saturday) evening, as recent
iterations of various 00z HREF members show thunderstorms
developing along the southward-moving cold front. The HRRR remains
the most bullish of the bunch, having pockets of 60+ dBZ simulated
reflectivities (indicating perhaps some hail) in the feistiest
cells between 7 and 10 pm, so we`ll have to have one eye on
mesoscale trends tomorrow evening. Though the HREF mean would
suggest 35-40+ kt of 0-6km bulk shear near the front, storms to
our southwest will get the first drink from the faucet of warm and
moisture advection from the LLJ, theoretically robbing our area
from the more appreciable instability necessary to sustain strong-
severe storms. The HRRR`s 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE ahead of the
front remains the outlier pulling up the HREF mean (nearer 1000
J/kg), but it still bears consideration; we`ll keep an eye on
things tomorrow evening, but at this time feel severe chances are
quite low (less than 5%) at any given location.
Bumgardner
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
A short-wave trough dropping southeastward across Saskatchewan and
Montana is providing the necessary synoptic lift for thunderstorm
development across Nebraska this afternoon. 19z/2pm satellite
mosaic shows cells blossoming over far southern South Dakota into
central Nebraska and these are expected to become more numerous
and spread southeastward this evening...eventually aided by a
50-60kt 850mb jet oriented northeastward from the Texas panhandle.
The storms will push into Missouri later this evening, then will
spill into parts of central Illinois overnight. Most CAMs keep the
bulk of the convection just S/SW of the KILX CWA, but bring
showers into parts of the area before dawn Saturday. Based on
current satellite trends and the 18z HRRR, have focused highest
PoPs along/south of a Macomb to Mattoon line from 09z/4am to
15z/10am. Instability will be meager as NAM MUCAPE values remain
below 100J/kg. Nevertheless have included slight chance for
thunder due to strong LLJ curving northeastward toward central
Illinois toward dawn.
Once the early morning showers depart into Indiana, mostly dry
weather is anticipated for the remainder of Saturday. A weak cold
front will push into the area from the northwest, so cannot rule
out widely scattered showers/thunder during the afternoon/evening,
but think most locations will remain dry. Have held on to chance
PoPs south of I-70 into Saturday night as the front settles
southward into the Ohio River Valley, but it appears the bulk of
the convection associated with the nocturnal jet will occur well
S/SW across Missouri into western Kentucky.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Cool and predominantly dry weather is expected early next week
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s Sunday through Tuesday.
Coolest night will be Monday night when lows perhaps dip into the
upper 40s along/north of the I-74 corridor. After that, upper
heights will rise and temperatures will climb back above normal
into the middle and upper 80s by next Thursday/Friday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Mid-level cloud deck at around 15000ft will continue to stream
across the sky through the evening before a decaying convective
complex approaches from the west overnight. Given the initially
very dry airmass and the fact that that convection currently
developing in Nebraska will drop southeastward into Missouri and
mainly stay S/SW of central Illinois, have limited precip mention
in the 00z TAFs. Opted to include predominant showers for a few
hours at KSPI after 10z and at KDEC after 14z, but have only
carried VCSH at the other terminals. Ceilings will lower Saturday
morning, but perhaps not as much as the CONSShort guidance would
suggest. Based on NAM forecast soundings, have lowered ceilings to
MVFR after the 14z-16z time period and kept them there through
00z. Winds will become light/variable this evening, then will
become S at 10-15kt Saturday morning. Winds will then veer to SW
and decrease to 10kt or less after 21z as a cold front settles
southward into central Illinois.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
mainly through mid evening across portions of north central into
central Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are expected with an
isolated tornado or two possible.
- Cooler highs in the upper 60s to 70s Saturday through Monday, with
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. The greatest threat is
over the western half of the forecast area.
- Drier weather with much warmer temperatures developing Tuesday
into Wednesday and persisting through Friday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
H5 analysis this morning had an upper level high over western
Texas/southeastern New Mexico. An elongated area of low pressure
extended from central Saskatchewan east southeast into
southeastern Ontario. For the northern half of the CONUS, from
the pacific NW into the Dakotas, broad east to west flow was
noted. Within this flow, a shortwave was noted over southwestern
Wyoming this morning with a second shortwave noted over
northern portions of the central valley of California. Other
disturbances were noted on the southern periphery of the
Saskatchewan low and extended from southeastern British Columbia
into southern portions of Saskatchewan. At the surface this
afternoon, a warm front extended from just north of Thedford,
ease southeast to just south of Ord Nebraska. Skies were partly
to mostly cloudy across the area and 2 pm CDT temperatures
ranged from 73 at Valentine, to 93 at Ogallala.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Severe potential this
evening will be the main forecast concern in the short term period.
Thunderstorm initiation is expected to take place around 20z this
afternoon. As for location of initiation, looking at the latest NAM
Nest, 13z HRRR and 12z WRF-ARW storm initiation ranges from Keya
Paha County (NAM Nest), to Brown and Rock counties (HRRR and WRF).
The model solns this morning lift the warm front up to as far north
as the SD/NE border by mid afternoon. This may be over done given
the ongoing convection over northern Nebraska and will need to be
ascertained near forecast issuance time. Believe initiation will take
place along this frontal boundary and this lies the highest
potential for tornadoes. As we progress into the latter afternoon
and early evening hours, super cell thunderstorms will track to the
southeast, eventually exiting the area by mid evening. Support for
supercell thunderstorms lie with deep layer shear on the order of 40
to 55 KTS this afternoon early evening. Low level moisture has
streamed into southwestern and western Nebraska this afternoon and
coupled with readings in the 80s/Lower 90s, has led to SB capes >
3000J/KG, which will be ample enough to overcome the 40+ kts of
shear. Very steep mid level lapse rates and 25+KTS of shear are
noted generally east of a Valentine to North Platte line which would
favor very large hail as the storms migrate southeast away from the
warm front. Eventually based on forecast DCAPE, supercells will
congeal into a line/bowing segment. By that point, the convection
should be exiting the area around the 01-02z time frame. Additional
convection may develop over the Cheyenne Ridge late this afternoon,
early evening. This activity may eventually make it into the
southwestern forecast area later this evening. ATTM, this activity
is not expected to be severe. Regardless, will introduce some low
pops in the SW to account for this threat overnight. Overnight,
surface high pressure will build into South Dakota forcing a pseudo-
backdoor cold front through the forecast area. By Saturday, this
feature will be oriented along the front ranges of southeastern
Wyoming/Colorado, south into the Oklahoma Panhandle and east along
the OK/KS border. Low level easterlies, anticipated cloud cover and
h85 temps in the lower teens are noted across the area on Saturday
and highs will struggle to get out of the lower 70s. There will be a
continued threat for precipitation Saturday, as showers and
thunderstorms develop off to the west and gradually lift east into
western portions of the forecast area. As for the severe threat, it
appears to be well off to the west and south of the forecast area
INVOF the backdoor cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Surface high pressure will remain anchored over the Missouri
Valley Sunday into Monday. This will lead to a continuation of
easterly/southeasterly winds with a frontal boundary anchored
off to the west of the forecast area. Precipitation chances will
remain highest in the western forecast area as convection
drifts east off the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming/NE
Colorado. Highs Sunday and Monday will struggle to get out of
the lower 70s both days which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal
for this time of year. A second cold front will push through the
area Monday night into early Tuesday with a decent threat for
showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by a general
warming trend for Wednesday through Friday with a more limited
threat for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
A line of thunderstorms passed through western and north central
Nebraska this afternoon along a strong low pressure system and
associated boundaries. Winds will remain gusty through the evening
hours, before boundary layer decoupling settles in and calms surface
winds. A stratus deck is expected overnight, which will lower
ceilings. The main challenge for the TAF period will be the
ceilings, as there may be brief drops to MVFR and IFR conditions.
There may be some brief showers through the TAF period, though
confidence is low in timing and placement, so will omit from TAFs at
this time.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
954 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend. Locally heavy
downpours possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning
across western and southern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Sun has just set over central Kentucky and southern Indiana,
allowing gusty southwesterly winds to relax and temperatures to
cool. Clear skies and light winds will lead to efficient cooling.
Low temperatures in the morning are expected to be in the upper 50s
and low 60s. In the early morning, dissipating convection currently
over the central Plains will move over the Ohio Valley bringing
broken to overcast clouds and scattered light showers by mid-
morning.
Current forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Tonight, the surface high will be focused just south of us moving
toward eastern Tennessee. As a result, there will be mostly clear
skies and dry conditions. After a breezy afternoon, the winds will
become more light and variable overnight as the high pressure shifts
eastward. Temperatures will lower into the mid to upper 50s. Close
to sunrise, convective cloud debris from the decaying MCS over
Missouri will filter over our area. By sunrise tomorrow, expect
increasing mid- and high-level cloud cover.
For tomorrow, low rain chances will spread eastward as the remnants
of the overnight MCS continue to dissipate. NBM is very bullish on
precip chances tomorrow, but given high res model soundings showing
very dry air in the lowest 3km, have decided to back off on PoPs
slightly. Decided to lower PoPs to 20-30% with the highest chances
north of I-64. We can expect some scattered showers tomorrow
afternoon over southern IN, and isolated showers for the rest of KY.
With increasing cloud cover throughout the day, little to no
instability is expected, so thunderstorm chances remain low.
Temperatures for tomorrow will range from mid to upper 70s for
southern IN, and upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Saturday Night through Monday Night...
Saturday night will feature a cold front slipping in from the
northwest and then slowing down in southern KY by dawn Sunday.
Nocturnal low-level jet will be in play, but not anywhere as strong
as what we saw Friday night. PWATs will be in the 1.75-1.9 inch
range along that front so primo juice will be available for
convection. Overall convective evolution here is still a bit
muddled as the HRRR has some sort of MCS rolling through the central
part of our CWA while the 3KNAM, Euro and GFS have an MCS rolling
through mainly southwest and far western KY. For now, will keep
higher end chance PoPs going for the overnight until we get a bit
more forecast convergence within the next few model cycles. Overall
severe threat looks pretty low here, but if we get a forward
propagating MCS, then gusty winds and torrential rainfall would be
the main threats. PoPs should continue into Sunday morning with
drier conditions likely in the wake for the afternoon/evening.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 60s. Highs Sunday will
likely be in the upper 70s to around 80. Sunday night lows will be
cooler behind the front with lows in the upper 50s. Dry and less
humid conditions are expected for Monday and Monday night with highs
in the upper 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the low-mid 50s.
Tuesday through Friday...
Moving into next week, the pattern will start off with a trough axis
along the east coast with some upper ridging over the Ohio Valley.
This trough axis will move east and the flow over the Ohio Valley
will remain in a west-northwest type pattern. Earlier forecasts
showed a mid-level perturbation working through around midweek.
However, latest ensembles and deterministic runs have shifted this
feature more to the south and west here. Additionally the GFS and
its ensembles have reversed course here and are now much more dry
through the period, which matches the Euro. Perhaps the next chance
of precipitation may arrive in the Thu/Fri time frame as a stronger
wave in the northern stream pushes through the Great Lakes which may
bring at least some iso-sct showers/storms to the region.
Temps will remain below normal for Tuesday with highs in the upper
70s to near 80. Lower 80s look likely for Wednesday. An uptick in
temps looks likely for Thursday as highs will warm into the middle
80s. Latest blend is suggesting upper 80s and lower 90s by Friday.
That seems a bit aggressive given the relative moist soil conditions
and lush vegetation across the region. More than likely, highs will
top out in the mid-upper 80s by late week and into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
High pressure over the region will keep VFR conditions through the
overnight hours. Gusty SW winds are beginning to relax as the day
ends. In the overnight hours, showers and storms over the central
Plains will move SE dissipating as it enters the region, however
bringing some VCSH conditions to the terminals. Clouds will increase
in coverage and lower in the morning. Winds will be SSW-SW around 5-
10kts in the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1044 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers likely tonight into Saturday morning.
- Warming trend through mid-week with high temperatures in the
80s likely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... Temperatures have climbed into the
low to mid 70s so far this afternoon. Winds have remained breezy 10-
15 mph range with gusts 25-30 mph. Much more tolerable versus
yesterday`s winds. Our clear skies will slowly fade under a lay of
mid level cloud cover. Cloud cover will build in from SW to NE and
will set the table for rain showers tonight into Saturday morning.
RH values have dropped into the 30 percent range this afternoon, but
fire weather concerns have been limited due to the recent wet
pattern. A shortwave trough will move through tonight, providing
support for rain showers across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Most of us should see showers overnight, but rainfall totals will be
light with values between a few hundredths to a quarter inch on the
high end. CAMs and Ensemble guidance give support to this solution
as well. There has been a downward trend in QPF amounts with this
system in the HRRR and global guidance as low level dry air saps
much of the moisture before it reaches the surface. PWATs aren`t too
impressive either. An thunderstorm or two is possible to our SW, but
12z CAMs didn`t feature anything noteworthy, likely due to the
limited moisture and instability in place. Saturday and Saturday
night will be pleasant after the system exits. Clearing skies will
support high temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Winds will be out
of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. An increasingly rare forecast as
we head into Summer.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... This week ahead will see these
pleasant late Spring-like days fade away as a more Summer-like
pattern builds in aloft. Temperatures start out pleasant with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s before the warmer weather ramps up by
late next week. Ensemble guidance has continued to advertise a
warmer look as an upper level ridge builds east into the central
CONUS. High temperatures in the 80s with a few spots in the 90s
appears likely by Thursday. It`s important to note that model spread
increases to a significant level by this point and what evolves
after is far from certain. ECMWF highlights two windows of
opportunity for potential rain and thunderstorms next week. The
first comes Tuesday with a shortwave system that`ll bring a swath of
moisture into Upper Midwest and likely some thunderstorm potential.
As this potential system exits, our ridge will build into the Upper
Midwest and WAA will ramp up. Temperatures will peak Thursday
afternoon in the 80s, possibly some 90s across SW MN, before a
stronger shortwave moves through Thursday PM into Thursday night.
Temperatures aren`t the only thing that`ll heat up mid-week. An
impressive surge of moisture will settle in with dew points in the
upper 60s and lower 70s likely. This will likely mark the end of the
late-spring weather we`ve enjoyed. PWAT values around 2.0" are
reflected in the ECMWF... very humid airmass coupled with
temperatures in the 80s... Summertime. This system should produce
thunderstorms across the region as a sfc cold front moves across the
state Thursday PM. We`ll have to monitor guidance to see what
exactly shakes out being over a week away though. If you have any
yard work or outdoor activities you`ve been putting off, it may be
beneficial to get to them before the end of next week!
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
VFR with mid level clouds increasing late this evening. Showers
will move in overnight and will remain light with VFR likely
continuing. As the showers exit early Saturday morning, FEW-SCT
MVFR level clouds could follow for a few hours before clearing.
Light and variable winds tonight will become northwest again
Saturday.
KMSP...Light showers should move in between 07-08Z tonight.
However, VFR conditions are likely throughout the period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Borghoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe storms with damaging winds around 70 mph and very heavy
rainfall are expected mainly across northern KS tonight.
- Another round of storms with heavy rain are likely (60 to 70
percent) across east central Kansas Saturday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
19Z water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance moving
through central KS with a line of elevated convection. A
shortwave was moving out into the northern plains as well.
Surface obs have shown a strengthening trough of low pressure in
the lee of the central rockies. This has allowed good moisture
advection through western KS with dewpoints increasing into the
middle and upper 60s.
Don`t see what would cause the band of elevated showers to fall
apart at this point, except that they may lose some of the better
moisture advection as they continue east. Additionally there is
higher levels of surface based CIN over eastern KS which may cause
the line to weaken as they move east. So have bumped up POPs with
coverage wording for the rest of this afternoon. Still looks like
the main threat for thunderstorms will impact the forecast area
overnight. The shortwave moving into the northern plains is sparking
convection across northern NEB. This is expected to be the
beginnings of an MCS later tonight and most guidance shows the nose
of the low level jet and strongest theta-e advection focused over
far northeast KS. There may still be some storms develop within the
warm air advection pattern ahead of the MCS, so have POPs ranging
from chance across the southern counties to categorical over
northeast KS. Forecast soundings show elevated CAPE values
increasing up to around 2000 J/kg thanks to the strong moisture
advection and there 18Z HRRR is projecting to potential for wind
gusts over 70 MPH with the MCS as it moves into northern KS. And
deep layer shear will be strong enough that some supercell structure
could allow for some large hail for a discrete storm or end of a
line segment. PWs increase to over 2 inches so the storms will
likely have heavy rain. The MCS is expected to remain progressive
enough that rain totals should still be manageable with respect to
flash flooding. This activity should exit east of the forecast area
by daybreak Saturday with some residual cloud cover hanging around.
Outflow from the MCS is progged to stall out across southern KS with
an 850MB boundary setting up across east central KS. It still
appears this will be a focus for renewed thunderstorms development
Saturday evening. However the low level jet is not nearly as strong
and veered more to the southwest. Still there is very high moisture
pooling along the boundary and convection that does form will be
capable of heavy rainfall. Fortunately this looks to mainly fall
south of tonight`s heavy rain. Models show strong instability along
this boundary and 0-6km shear is forecast to be 40KT to 50KT. So
there will be a risk for severe storms. If the low level jet was
stronger, there would be better confidence in severe storms. This
activity could linger into Sunday morning.
For Monday weak surface ridging and some dryer air look to give a
break from the convection with afternoon temps in the middle 70s to
around 80. Another shortwave within the northwest flow may spark
some showers and storms on Tuesday, but the weak surface ridge is
progged to still be over the area so moisture quality is instability
are questionable at this point. Models show mid level ridging
amplifying over the southern Rockies through the second half of next
week. This would favor hotter temperatures with POPs generally less
than 30 percent.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
The primary concern this period continues to focus on the
arrival time of an overnight storms complex impacting the
terminals. Have made slight adjustments to the going forecast
and the eventual improving conditions after the storms move
through. Still uncertain how fast storms move through the
terminals so have left a tempo group for now. As storms become
more organized and track toward the area, updates will be made
to arrival time frames.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake