Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1013 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A large cluster of showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms move
across the region Thursday morning with brief heavy rain. A second
round of more scattered showers & thunderstorms cross the region
Thursday evening.Unsettled conditions with periods of showers
and thunderstorms Friday through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1010 PM update...
Main challenge in the short term is how far inland stratus and
fog gets. Patchy stratus is starting to develop along the south
coast and will become more widespread here as BL cools with
dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. With low level SW flow expect the
stratus to advect north across the region and HREF is indicating
high probs of lower cigs expanding northward overnight. However,
the low vsbys in fog should be mainly confined to the south
coast given the SW flow. Overnight low temps should only drop
into the 60s given the increasing clouds and higher dewpoints.
Leading edge of showers and t-storms moving into eastern PA and
southern NJ. This activity may reach portions of CT and SW MA
toward daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
* Large cluster of showers & perhaps iso t-storms and brief
downpours Thu AM with the highest confidence across CT/RI & SE MA
* A second round of more scattered showers & t-storms Thu evening
Details...
Thursday and Thursday night...
Vigorous shortwave energy approaches from the west toward daybreak
Thu. The amount of forcing should generate a large cluster/fairly
widespread area of showers and perhaps isolated t-storms given
showalter indices dropping near zero. In addition...Pwats on the
order of 1.50 to 2" so expect some downpours with the activity as
well. This activity should move fast enough to prevent any
significant issues...but typical brief nuisance poor drainage street
flooding is possible.
This cluster of activity should exit most of the region by early
afternoon. We should see a lull in the activity for the rest of the
afternoon...although it should remain cloudy in most locations with
onshore flow. It is possible though a few breaks develop in the
distant interior. Mainly skies will hold highs in the 70s...but
might be near 80 in the lower elevations of western MA & CT.
The other concern will be a second round of more scattered showers &
t-storms Thu evening...but not as widespread as what we are looking
at during the morning. This is association with another shortwave
and some leftover diurnal heating/instability. Surface instability
of 1000+ J/KG may develop in the distant interior if we can muster a
few breaks in the clouds. Mid level lapse rates are poor and the
activity is not arriving until the evening will limit the severe
weather potential with this activity. That being said...the HREF
does indicate some updraft helicity swaths and the CSU & HRRR Neural
network machine learning probs do indicate a low risk for a few
severe storms across the distant interior. In a nutshell...thinking
the risk for severe weather is low but can not rule out a few strong
to marginally severe storms in the distant interior. Overall...think
this is a low risk but can not rule out a few strong to marginally
severe storms across interior MA & CT Thu evening. Brief downpours
are possible with this activity too. This activity may reach eastern
MA & RI in a weakened form later Thu evening. Otherwise...drying
trend after midnight with lows in the upper 50s to the middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* Unsettled Friday through Sunday with several chances for rain and
isolated Thunderstorms
* Pattern improvement delayed until early/mid next week as low
pressure over southern Canada is displaced by building mid-level
ridge
Friday...
Broad upper level low that has been slowly creeping towards New
England from the northwest sets up shop over the Great
Lakes/southern Canada by early Friday. Several shortwaves will
rotate around the low, the first of which develops mid day Friday
while somewhat of a seabreeze/back door coastal front drops south
out of Maine. While the dynamics of the day don`t look super
impressive, thinking that some scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be able to develop in the convergence zone of the two "forcing
features" where some modest instability, ~600J/kg SBCAPE is present.
0-6km bulk shear also looks to be supportive of thunderstorm
development, topping out around 60kt Friday afternoon! At present,
this convergence zone appears to set up between Worcester and Boston
along I-495, but may shift over the next 24 hours.
The limiting factors in storm coverage and strength are typical of
southern New England with lackluster mid level lapse rates, less
than 5C/km, and decreasing PWATs as surface cold front approaches
from the west; PWATs drop from near 1.8" early Friday to 1". So,
while the severe potential remains very low, cant rule out some
solid downpours and gusty winds Friday afternoon.
Overall, should see a mix of sun and showers with a moderate
mugginess to the air with dewpoints in the low and mid 60s the first
half of the day.
Saturday and Sunday...
Unsettled conditions continue Saturday and Sunday, though neither
day appears to be a washout with a few more shortwaves rotating
around the persistent upper level low.
Saturday looks to be the drier of the two days as PWATs fall to
around 0.8" behind surface cold front that passes through overnight.
Guidance is split on the shower potential, with more coarse
resolution global guidance, like the GFS, trending towards a drier
day and hi-res guidance like the NAM initiating more widespread
shower activity Saturday afternoon. Dynamics appear to be more
supportive of thunderstorms, compared to Friday, as mid level lapse
rates increase to ~6C/km and low level lapse rates approach 8.5C/km,
but instability appears to be quite poor, around 200J/kg.
PWATs surge back towards 1.25-1.4" early Sunday with a similar
dynamic setup, which will yield more showers and isolated
Thunderstorms compared to Saturday. Still, not expecting a washout,
with a mix of sun and showers.
Early next week and beyond...
Very persistent mid level trough/low pressure over Canada, remains
near stationary through early next week. Guidance shows stronger
shortwave development in the Monday period that could bring a more
substantial shot of QPF to the region, before a brief reprieve from
unsettled conditions develops Tuesday/Wednesday with some indication
that strong mid level ridging develops during that timeframe. While
ridging looks robust, temperatures look seasonably mild rather than
hot, with highs in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight into Thursday night...High Confidence on trends but
lower confidence on specific timing.
Light moist southerly flow will allow for low stratus and areas
of fog to overspread the region tonight from south to north.
Specific timing uncertain...but do expect most locales to see
IFR-LIFR conditions develop overnight. These conditions will
continue through much of Thursday. Improvement will occur Thu
night across the interior...but lower conditions will persist
for most of Thu night across the eastern half of the region.
The other concern over the next 36 hours will be for a band of
widespread showers and perhaps isolated t-storms that will cross
the region from southwest to northeast Thu morning. Brief
downpours are expected with this activity too. A second area of
scattered showers & t-storms will impact the region from the
west Thu evening...but this activity will be more scattered than
what we are anticipating during the morning. As for wind...they will
be from the S generally 10 kts or less...but will shift to the
E on Thu across northern MA.
Prob30 groups have been added to the TAFs, away from the south
coast/Cape, to account for two periods of potential convection;
the first between ~13-17Z west to east, and the second between
21-01Z (Friday) west to east. The second round of convection
looks to be shorter lived, associated with a thin line moving
from the SW to NE, this currently looks to miss the Cape and
Island terminals completely.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, but lower confidence in
specific timing.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, but lower confidence in
specific timing.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Thursday night...Moderate Confidence.
Southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist tonight into Thu
before shifting to more of the SE across the northern waters.
However...S-SW winds will persist across the southern waters into
Thu night. This long S-SW fetch will build seas to around 5 feet
across our southern outer-waters and we may see gusts on the order
of 20 to perhaps up to 25 knots. Therefore...have hoisted small
craft headlines for our southern waters Thu afternoon and night. The
other concern for mariners will be areas of fog developing
especially late tonight into Thu morning. A cluster of showers &
perhaps isolated t-storms will cross the region Thu morning into the
early afternoon.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/KS
NEAR TERM...KJC/Frank/KS
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...Frank/KS
MARINE...Frank/KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
757 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper disturbance moving through the region will continue
to generate scattered thunderstorms through early tonight. A
cold front will move across the Southeast Thursday increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier air follows the
front late this week into the weekend. Another cold front
possible early next week, with rain potential increasing ahead
of it late in the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A couple lines of showers and thunderstorms have marched across
the forecast area this afternoon and evening with convective
intensity finally weakening. Ongoing convection moving through
the western Midlands is associated with a short wave and will
continue generating some convection due to the enhanced dynamics
aloft. Most areas have already had one or two rounds of
convection cross the area which has greatly reduced temperatures
and stabilized the atmosphere so expect the convective intensity
through the remainder of the evening and overnight to remain
weak. Overnight there will be limited instability so outflow
boundaries which intersect could generate some new cells. With
debris cloudiness expected for most of the night overnight lows
will be in the upper 60s to around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A positively tilted upper trough is forecast to be located over the
Southeast Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front that is
associated with an upper low over the Great Lakes is anticipated to
be near the Tennessee River Valley in the morning. Both of these
features are forecast to move eastward through the day, bringing the
chance for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the area after a lull in the action in the morning. Latest hi-res
guidance continues a downward trend in the precipitation chances
through the day. However, I suspect there will be remnant boundaries
from the convection that occurs today, which could be triggers for
development. So, still think there`s a medium chance (30-50%) of
showers and storms to develop. PWATs are expected to remain high
ahead of the cold front, leading to the potential for heavy
downpours at times. Forecast soundings show that the temperature
will likely be an inverted V, which is indicative of a threat for
strong winds. While the severe threat overall is low for any storms
Thursday, some of the stronger storms could produce some stronger
winds (>40 mph) and small hail. The cold front is expected to pass
through the area during the overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier air is expected to be ushered in behind the cold front for
Friday and through at least the first half of the weekend, which
leads to high confidence (80%) in fair weather for Friday and
Saturday. Some uncertainty begins to settle into the forecast
beginning on Sunday into early next week as models indicate a front
is forecast to slide south, bringing some chances for more rain.
There are some significant differences in the model solutions with
this feature as well as an upper level low, resulting in low
confidence in the forecast at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected over the 24 hr forecast
period outside of showers or thunderstorms and possible morning
stratus.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to slowly work
across the forecast area, impacting the TAF sites on their way.
Showers are expected to diminish across the Augusta TAF sites
over the next hour, with more approaching the Orangeburg site
over the next couple hours. Any heavier shower or storm will be
capable of brief visibility restrictions, with the most likely
site to see this being OGB. These should continue to push
eastward as the evening progresses with more stable air settling
in after 03z and diminishing coverage. The shortwave driving
this is expected to slowly push across the area and make for an
interesting forecast tonight. Guidance is much more bullish on
ceiling restrictions later tonight behind this feature, with
HRRR, NBM, and RAP guidance all forecasting 1500-2000 kft
stratus at the Columbia sites. Thinking this is reasonable given
the subsidence behind the shortwave trough; though, it isn`t a
home run forecast. CAE/CUB are most likely to see it develop
but can`t rule it out anywhere else. It should remain stratus,
with the usual caveat that AGS is a fog prone site, as a strong
low- level jet is likely to develop again tonight. As we get
into the day on Thursday, a cold front will approach and winds
are expected to get fairly gusty by the afternoon hours. Expect
another round of showers and storms to potentially develop ahead
of this.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Return to thunderstorm chances early Friday morning with some
severe weather potential early in the day, mainly southern
areas closer to the Oklahoma line.
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely from Friday
morning through Sunday, however timing and track of individual
thunderstorm system is still very uncertain.
- Much of next week looks dry as high pressure builds in and
much more stable air mass in place
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
This Short Term period (Tonight through Thursday Night) will be one
of the quietest 36-hour periods we have seen in awhile with
essentially no chance for rain or thunderstorms...until very late
in this period.
On the synoptic scale, water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed a
broad ridge of high pressure extending across much of the western
CONUS extending east across the Central and Southern Plains. A
formidable shortwave trough was moving southeast across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region this afternoon which will bring another
cold front south across western Kansas early Thursday morning. Winds
will increase to 15 to 25 mph behind the front, particularly gusty
once some insolation begins after sunrise tomorrow morning. The
front will also drop surface dewpoints well down into the 40s
keeping the entire forecast area stable to convective storms.
Despite the strong northeast winds and low level cold advection, a
full day`s worth of early-June direct insolation will still allow
afternoon temperatures warm to the mid to upper 80s for highs.
Tomorrow night, low level winds will veer around to the east-
southeast and eventually southeast, becoming increasingly warm
frontogenetic in the 06-12Z Friday time frame. Elevated
thunderstorms, initiating within the 850-700mb warm frontogenetic
zone, will be possible very early Friday morning, but there is quite
a bit of uncertainty in placement of these early morning storms, so
POPs will not be any higher than 30% on this forecast cycle for the
early Friday morning period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
The period from Friday through the weekend is still looking quite
active with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely across
the west central Great Plains.
To kick off this active pattern will likely be some morning elevated
convection as a warm front strengthens aloft (mainly 850-700mb
layer). Rich Gulf of Mexico moisture will advance northward, above
the surface, very early Friday morning yielding 2000-3500 J/kg
MUCAPE. This would certainly be enough, along with 30-40 knots of
vertical wind shear magnitude from 850-500mb, to support severe
storms. The size of an early Friday morning MCS is uncertain and
will have at least some impact on destabilization later in the day
for surface-based convection.
The broad west-northwest flow across the Rockies in the mid
troposphere is an ideal setup for High Plains mesoscale convective
system (MCS) development. Timing and placement of individual MCSs is
far too uncertainty to predict over the weekend, however latest
global model consensus is the best chance for the most
favorable MCS activity across much of southwest/west central
Kansas will be late Saturday or Saturday Night.
As we head in to Sunday, signals from the latest global models
(deterministic and ensemble systems) show an increasingly amplified
upper level pattern with mean ridging across the Rockies and mean
troughing across the eastern CONUS. This will push the effective
polar front well to the south of southwest Kansas by late in the
weekend in addition to the best thunderstorm chances to our south
and west up against the higher terrain. Early next week looks quite
stable to widespread convection across western Kansas. After that,
models diverge significantly regarding the upper level pattern and
resulting low level thermodynamic and kinematic fields.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. A
cold front will move through early Thursday morning however the
wind shift should occur with winds under 10 kts. Winds will
briefly increase with some mixing in the late morning and early
afternoon hours as wind speeds and gusts will be in the 15-25
kt range.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds Thursday over 30-50 mph are forecast across
portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest into west-
central Minnesota.
- Scattered showers each of the next few days.
- Drier conditions this weekend before shower chances return
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Advisory and warning criteria winds have since subsided as the
boundary layer begins to decouple after sunset with surface
inversion developing. As such, let the Wind Advisory and High
Wind Warning expire.
UPDATE
Issued at 722 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Highest winds should begin to lessen in coverage as we approach
sunset, but still could see more sporadic very windy gusts over
50 mph through 9 PM in portions of the Red River Valley and
eastern ND. Thus, will likely keep Wind Warning and Advisory
valid through then, even if majority of observations come in
under criteria.
Winds will remain elevated and gusty overnight
given continued low level cold air advection over the area, but
not to advisory/warning criteria.
Showers/thunderstorms responsible for pea sized hail and gusts
over 55 mph are exiting our area into central Minnesota as
forcing for ascent and instability continues southeast. The
chance for additional strong/severe storms has diminished. Still
will see additional showers/sprinkles across the area through
tonight, as lobe of vorticity continues to influence our area
amid persistent CAA aloft near cloud bearing layer.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
...Synopsis...
Continue to note shortwave activity rotating around an upper low in
Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Coupled with strong strong mid level cold
advection and 850-700 mb flow of 40-50 kts a windy pattern is
expected to continue through Thursday before flow weakens. After
this upper low moves southeast along a tongue of potential vorticity
stretching to the great lakes region a mid level trough finally
clears the low level jet east of our area. In the meantime steep sfc-
700mb lapse and will maintain shower chances each day though
diminishing through the weekend.
... High Wind Warning/ Wind Advisory...
Strong 850mb flow can be noted in latest RAP analysis of 40-45 kts
with a max of 50+ approaching from the SE Manitoba will overspread
the upper Devils Lake basin this afternoon pushing winds into High
Wind Warning criteria as 40+ mph sustained winds and gusts to 60 mph
are possible. As the BL decouples this evening gusts should quickly
diminish though may remain quite breezy through midnight. For
tomorrow a similar pattern is forecast though thinking the core of
the strongest winds aloft and PGF at the sfc will past us and only
warrant a wind advisory for eastern North Dakota and adjacent
portions of Minnesota. Punting on issuance to avoid confusion with
current active headlines but foresee evening or night crew issuing
more wind headlines.
...Fire Weather...
Decreasing shower chances (see below) leading to more widespread low
RH values with our remaining strong winds teaming up to give winds
over 20 mph and RH as low as 30%. Knowing the bias in the dewpoint
forecast would lean into upper 20s for humidity planning purposes.
Winds seem to be well handled with this predictable pattern thus not
expecting critical fire weather conditions but certainly to
keep in the back of the mind and monitor.
...Shower Activity...
Steep lapse rates and diurnal heating will continue to favor shower
and thunderstorm formation. A weak shortwave rotating through the
area should promote more widespread convective growth this afternoon
through favoring NW Minnesota. Any collapsing storm should tap into
the stronger winds aloft warranting the 5% risk across the area for
wind though hail potential looks low due to shallow nature of
storms. The lower freezing levels could help compensate for this
however thus the 5% hail risk. Shallower boundary layer Thursday and
Friday will cut down on severe chances through general thunderstorms
and scattered showers remain a 30% chance each day.
...Weekend and Beyond...
Thermal ridging moves in under upper troughing this weekend further
diminishing precip chances for a few days before trough returns to
the western CONUS bringing more shortwave activity to the northern
plains early next week. Less than 30% chance for > 0.10" of precip
any given day due to uncertainty in pattern evolution, though
general pattern looks favorable for more rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Gusty northwest winds between 25-35kt will continue to impact
TAF sites through 00Z Friday, including tonight. Winds will be
relatively lower tonight through 15Z until another uptick in
winds start thereafter. Gusts Thursday after 15Z are forecast
to be generally between 30-40kt.
MVFR CIGs are forecast to spread into northeast ND and northwest
MN tonight. TAF sites forecast to be impacted include KDVL,
KGFK,KTVF, and KBJI. These lowered CIGs are forecast to lift
into VFR criteria around 15Z Thursday, although confidence is
lowered in timing of this improvement, with a 30% chance it
extends after 18Z Thursday.
Isolated light rain showers/virga will remain possible tonight.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1031 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Conditions hazardous to small craft will be possible at times
from Thursday through Friday.
- There will be a chance of showers at times from Thursday through
the weekend. While low chances of thunderstorms may develop, the
severe weather risk will be low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Thursday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front
moving across northern Lake Michigan early this afternoon.
Precipitation along the front and associated with a shortwave
aloft has exited northeast Wisconsin. Strong isolation behind the
back edge of the cloud line continues to take place over western
and central Wisconsin where 0-3km surface based capes (sb cape) are
rapidly rising to around 100 j/kg. Will be monitoring western
Wisconsin for storm intensification over the next 1-2 hours which
resides within the left exit region of a 100 kt jet streak and
just ahead of a potent shortwave trough. As storms push east,
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is the main forecast
concern.
Severe weather chances: Thunderstorms are expected to grow
upscale from mid to late afternoon before entering north-central
and central Wisconsin around the 5 pm hour. Despite modest
instability (500-800 j/kg sb cape), wind fields aloft are forecast
to significantly strengthen in the 700-500mb layer into the 60-70
kt range. Both the HRRR and RAP indicate that mid-level winds at
15 kft could approach around 80 kts over central WI by around 22z.
This is upwards of 99th percentile in the NAEFS climatology. With
low level lapse rates around 9 C/km and downdraft capes around
700 j/kg, potential is certainly there for damaging wind gusts out
of the strongest thunderstorms. Think the highest potential will
be across central and east-central Wisconsin from about 5 pm to 9
pm when the overlap of max instability and jet stream winds will
occur.
While a lesser concern, the strongest updrafts could also produce
hail. Considering the low cape in the hail growth zone, it will
likely take a rotating updraft for severe hail to develop.
Effective shear is 25 to 30 kts so severe hail remains more
marginal and the focus will be on damaging straight line winds.
Late tonight through Thursday: A lull in the precipitation is
expected overnight. Deeper low and mid-level moisture will return
towards sunrise and will likely see light rain showers spread from
northwest to southeast over the course of the morning across the
region. That doesn`t bode well for thunderstorm chances and will
remove the mention. Will also lower high temps due to cloud cover
and light precip. Gusts to 30 mph will also be possible.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Extended period will primarily be dominated by a near stationary
cut- off low that is forecast settle over the eastern Great
Lakes/SE Ontario. Cyclonic flow around the low will lead to low
to moderate end PoPs (20-30%) at times this weekend. In addition,
to the broad rain chances there will be a chance for a few
embedded thunderstorms, mainly Saturday.
Thursday night through Sunday... A few showers may linger into
early Thursday night as the initial trough pushes off to the
east. Expect dry conditions overnight through Friday as drier air
filters into the mid-levels. Winds may become breezy Friday
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens, northwest winds may
gusts 20-25 mph.
Chance for precipitation returns Saturday as a second low
pressure system moves across the MN Arrowhead and phases with the
stalled low off to the east. There is a low end chance (15-25%)
for a few embedded thunderstorms to develop late Saturday morning
through the afternoon. With only marginal instability (MUCAPE 300-
500 J/kg) and weak shear expected thunderstorms to be weak and
pulsy. One caveat here is if clouds clear out for Saturday
morning and and low-level lapse rates steepen enough to get a few
accelerating updrafts. In terms of rainfall amounts Saturday QPF
looks low, with most locations expected to only see up to a tenth
or two.
Another chance for rain showers is forecast for Sunday as a piece
of jet energy is progged to phase with the stalled low. Don`t
expect more than a few rumbles of thunder with these showers as
instability will be lacking.
Rest of the extended...The stubborn low is forecast to finally
release control of the region Monday as ensembles show a quick
round of ridging returning drier conditions to the region. There
are some signals that the next chance for showers and storms may
come Tuesday as the ridge departs the region.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will end overnight as a strong
upper level disturbance moves away from the area. A few surface
wind gusts to 35 knots possible with the thunderstorms. VFR conditions
are expected outside any convective activity. Some clearing is
possible late tonight.
If there are some clear skies Thursday morning, skies will become
cloudy again by afternoon, with scattered showers, especially across
northern Wisconsin. MVFR ceilings are likely west of a IMT to AUW
line, with VFR ceilings further east.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/GK
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1001 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again on Thursday.
Dry Canadian air will mix across the area Friday and persist into
the weekend. A chance of thunderstorms returns to the region Sunday
and continues into the first half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday: For this update, radar is mostly
clear with a minor, non-threatening shower in the SC Upstate. No
other new storms have formed as the area has become more stable
and the environment doesn`t support much shower or thunderstorm
activity. Minor tweaks to temps and PoPs to adjust for it. No
other changes as the forecast is still on track.
At any rate, convection will subside after sundown as whatever
instability we end up with vanishes, and the shortwave translates
east, taking synoptic support with it. The overnight hours will
feature mostly dry conditions (although yet again, recent HRRR and
RAP runs are hinting at a wave of isolated morning showers for the
Upstate around daybreak) and the development of another deck of low
stratus and patchy fog incited by a still-moist boundary layer.
Guidance depicts this scattering out more quickly than it did
today, as stronger WAA picks up ahead of an advancing cold front.
The leading edge of this circulation should arrive by evening,
and ahead of it, another round of afternoon convection is depicted
by virtually all the guidance. Severe risk still looks hampered by
weak shear...but 0-6km shear, particularly over the NC Piedmont out
to the I-77 corridor, approach 20kts, enough that some strong to
severe storms cannot be completely ruled out. And, with the front
slowed in the latest 12z cycle of operational guidance, it arrives
late enough for 1700-2300 J/kg sbCAPE to develop. Therefore, an
isolated damaging wind risk can`t be ruled out with any segments
that manage to get organized Thursday afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Wednesday...An amplified system over the Great Lakes
states will push a cold front through the area by Thursday evening.
This will lead to drier and thus more comfortable conditions for
Friday and Saturday. With surface high pressure in place, lows
Friday night will drop into the 55-60 range in the Piedmont and to
the upper 40s to lower 50s in the mountains. Highs both Friday and
Saturday will be near climo, but with low relative humidity.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Wednesday...The mid level system over the Great Lakes
will further amplify creating a little more active northwest flow
pattern on Sunday and Monday. This will lead to the return of pops
for these days and nights, but there is a lot of uncertainty as to
where and when any storms might occur. Drier conditions will return
for the middle of next week as the system pushes through the area.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Another TAF period with restrictions and more
complicated weather. Starting out with scattered showers and TS, but
tapering off quickly. This will leave a period of VFR CIGS/VSBY
through most of the overnight hours. Low level stratus will start to
develop once again, socking in most terminals outside the mountains
to IFR conditions. Time frame for IFR restrictions will be between
08-10z, with KCLT lowering around the 10z timeframe. Expect
improvements around the 13z-14z time range, with MVFR returning. VFR
conditions should return after 15z at most terminals. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon for most
sites. A PROB30 for TSRA for now and will adjust to TEMPOs as needed
for those terminals with higher confidence in future issuances.
Winds will remain S/SW at all sites with wind gusts picking up after
12z. Expect low-end gusts 15-20kts through the end of the TAF period
and 23z at KCLT.
Outlook: Drier air moves into the area by Friday morning with
improving restrictions into the weekend. High pressure will linger
through Saturday before another system approaches by the start of
the new work week.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/MPR
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1032 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms will affect the area again late this
evening into the overnight tonight.
- Relatively cooler and drier weather will arrive behind a cold
front passing through eastern Kentucky on Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2024
Showers and thunderstorms are developing and moving into eastern
Kentucky from the west, much as predicted by CAMS from earlier
today. The main threat from this round of precipitation will be
downpours producing isolated areas of high water, especially in
poor drainage areas. A few stronger storms are possible,
especially with decent 0-1 km storm relative helicity providing
some potential for rotating storms. Instability will be a limiting
factor, however, especially in areas that were not able to
sufficiently destabilize following late afternoon thunderstorms
earlier.
UPDATE Issued at 550 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2024
With the first round of convection exiting east into West Virginia
and Virginia, lowered PoPs and Sky cover grids this evening before
the next round of showers and thunderstorms arrive late this
evening into the overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 420 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2024
Late this afternoon the axis of a mid and upper level ridge
extended from off the southeastern U.S. coast across the mid
Atlantic states into Quebec. Further west, an upper level low was
centered near the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border with an
associated trough axis through the MS Valley. A lead shortwave was
moving across the OH Valley and TN Valley with shower and some
thunderstorms with heavy downpours working across the region
preceding it. At the surface, an area of low pressure was located
in the Manitoba into Ontario region with the trailing cold front
south into the Great Lakes to mid MS Valley to Southern Plains. A
secondary cold front extends from western Ontario to the central
Plains and then into the western Conus.
This evening and tonight, the lead shortwave will depart to the
east by early this evening with the next shortwave/500 mb trough
axis will continue east across the central and eastern Great
Lakes and OH Valley into the Southeastern Conus and the
Appalachians. Meanwhile the upper level low to the northwest will
meander into Ontario and then to the northern Great Lakes through
Thursday. Another shortwave trough will move into the OH Valley on
Thursday. The first cold front will work across the Commonwealth
and enter eastern KY late tonight and move southeast of the area
on Thursday followed by the secondary cold front that nears
eastern KY during the day on Thursday and then across the area on
Thursday evening.
The airmass is rather moist across the region, PW is analyzed in
the 1.6 to 1.85 inch range while instability is rather weak with
MLCAPE generally around 500 to 1000 J/kg at present, with low
level lapse rates of about 6 to 7C/km. Mid level lapse rates are
generally weak as well, 6C/km or less. The airmass will remain
moist with deep moisture persisting ahead of the front, as PW
remains in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range ahead of the first cold
front. MLCAPE is forecast by the RAP to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range ahead of the boundary before diminishing later tonight with
lapse rates becoming meager. Locally heavy rain will remain the
primary threat with any additional convection behind the
convection that will depart into WV and VA within the next hour
and another area of convection anticipated ahead of the next
shortwave trough and the cold front. This second round of
convection area of convection should taper off from northwest to
southeast late tonight. A drier airmass will be in place behind
the first front on Thursday, however, some shallow showers or
sprinkles may accompany the secondary front and shortwave on
Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.
Some fog will be possible as well tonight with low dewpoint
depressions especially if showers end in a location and winds
slacken. Fog will probably be more prevalent in the valleys on
Friday night behind the secondary front as high pressure begins to
nose into eastern KY.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2024
We begin the period quiet, as cold front will have passed through
the area. In the mid-levels, we see a low set up near the Great
Lakes and high set up in the Southern Plains, with solid agreement
in the ensembles and deterministic guidance. This will lead to
west to west northwest flow at the surface and much drier airmass.
This will usher in an airmass that will lead to highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, which is right around normal for this time
of year. This drier weather will extend into Saturday with with
highs sticking around 80 degrees.
By later Saturday into Sunday, there is good agreement on
increasing moisture, as the the mean of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble
models show PWAT increasing toward the 1 inch range. This will be
ahead of another southward moving frontal boundary, the a low
forms on near the Lower Ohio Valley. This will spark of showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday, with
peak chances on Sunday in the 30-50 percent range.
In the wake of this weaker front, we don`t see quite as much of
moisture drop off and given a mid-level trough axis hangs around
during this time. This could lead to additional chances of showers
and thunderstorms on Monday at around the 30-40 percent chance
range. The the guidance begins to show divergence in the mid- and
upper level pattern. The leads to a fair amount of uncertainty in
the forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday. So we will continue to
see small chances (around 20 percent or less) of showers and
thunderstorms mainly Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. It looks
like much of the period we will see afternoon highs near normal in
the mid to upper 70s in most cases.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2024
The period begins under primarily VFR conditions within a lull
between rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The next round will
begin to approach and move through the area primarily after 03z
this evening. The associated front may linger across the central
and southern parts of the forecast area through Thursday morning,
keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, but is too low
confidence to include in TAFs at this time. MVFR and possibly IFR
cigs are possible in association with and after overnight showers
and thunderstorms. Winds will average south to southwest at 10KT
or less through this evening hours of the period, before winds
become more westerly after about 15z Thu behind the front.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...CMC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions will persist through Thursday.
- Precipitation chances will increase beginning Thursday night and
continue through the weekend. The threat for severe storms appears
highest Friday afternoon/evening across far southwestern Nebraska.
- Below normal temperatures are forecast for Saturday through
Monday with highs generally in the 70s.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over east central
Saskatchewan. A trough extended to the southeast into northern
Minnesota, then south into northern Arkansas. High pressure was
anchored over the Mojave Desert. Broad westerly flow extended
from the Pacific NW into the central and northern Plains. Across
the eastern CONUS, ridging extended from the Mid Atlantic
States north into central Quebec. At the surface, strong low
pressure was located over central Manitoba this afternoon. A
cold front extended to the east then south across Lake Michigan,
south into eastern Arkansas. A secondary, back door cold front
had pushed into most of western and north central Nebraska by 2
PM CT this afternoon. Currently this feature was generally along
Interstate 80 from Ogallala to North Platte. Winds immediately
behind the front were northerly while winds south of the front
were westerly or southwesterly. Temperatures as of 2 PM CT
ranged from 72 degrees at Gordon, to 88 degrees at Ogallala and
Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
The next 24 to 30 hours will be relatively tranquil across the
forecast area. The back door cold front will be forced south
into southern Kansas overnight as high pressure noses into the
forecast area from the northwest. Northerly winds behind the
front will gradually diminish overnight and with a dry airmass
behind the front lows will bottom out in the upper 40s to around
50 for most of the forecast area. Some middle 50s are expected
over far southwestern Nebraska, where winds will be slower to
diminish. The surface high will build into western Nebraska,
then central Kansas on Thursday. By afternoon, warmer air on the
western periphery of the high, will begin to push into western
and southwestern Nebraska. This will lead to highs in the lower
80s. Further east, highs will be in the middle to upper 70s. By
late afternoon/early evening, southerly winds will begin to
increase across western Nebraska on the back side of the exiting
high. Overnight, a nice H85 low level jet will form from in
western Kansas/eastern Colorado. This feature will nose into
northwestern Nebraska after 06z Friday. At the same time, there
are indications in the latest NAM12 soln, of increased mid level
warm air advection and instability (negative LI`s computed
above the H800 level) over the western Sandhills and
northwestern portions of the forecast area. The latest NAM12,
3KM NAM and GFS solns do develop some limited QPF in these areas
after 06z Friday, a result of elevated convection. With that in
mind, went ahead and expanded the slight chance pops in the
inherited forecast. Will cap pops around 20 percent since there
is limited support for this with the 12z HRRR and ARW and NSSL
WRF runs.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Warmer air will continue to push into southwestern Nebraska
Friday. On the leading edge of this warm air surge, a warm front
will become established across portions of central into north
central Nebraska. This boundary is most pronounced in the NAM 12
soln and shows up to a lesser degree in the GFS soln. SB CAPE`s
reach around 3000J/KG across southwestern into central Nebraska
Friday afternoon per the latest NAM12 and GFS solns. The
presence of plenty of CAPE, a limited afternoon CAP and a
frontal boundary, will probably lead to the development of
thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. As for the severe
threat, there is plenty of deep layer shear to support supercell
storms. Given the degree of very steep mid level lapse rates,
large hail would be the favored severe hazard. However, INVOF
the warm front, there could be a tornado threat, given the low
level helicities forecasted in the NAM12 soln. ATTM, the latest
SWODY3 has a marginal risk in far SW Nebraska. Feel there is a
high probability for this risk to expand northeast into the
forecast area with the SWODY2, to be issued tonight. On the
heels of storms Friday night, another cold front will back into
the region. This will lead to cooler temps Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the 70s. The bulk of any storms/precipitation
chances should remain out west along the front ranges of
Colorado/Wyoming. There is a small possibility that some of this
waning convection may reach western and southwestern portions
of the forecast area, given the west northwesterly steering
winds. Temperatures will then trend higher, as ridging across
the western CONUS begins to break down and migrate east. By the
middle and end of next week, widespread 90s look probable based
on the latest NBM guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska tonight through tomorrow evening. Winds are
expected to remain fairly calm through tomorrow afternoon across the
region, with the exception of north central Nebraska. Tomorrow
afternoon, winds will be strongest across north central Nebraska
along and east of a line roughly from KVTN to KBBW, with
predominantly northwest winds around 15 knots gusting to 25
knots.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
854 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Period of showers tonight, followed by mainly dry and windy
weather on Thursday.
- Seasonable to seasonably cool conditions and breezy Friday
through this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
A vigorous sheared shortwave continues to make steady progress
across Wisconsin this evening, with two notable embedded vort
lobes clearly evident on moisture-channel loops. A mid and
upper-level thermal gradient is evident, with the Lincoln, IL
sounding sampling 500 mb temperatures near -5 C, while at
Minneapolis it`s nearly -20 C.
Intense DCVA/height falls interacting with a region of steep
mid-level lapse rates (thanks in part to the aforementioned cold
500 mb temperatures) is working to crank out high (ish) based
showers and thunderstorms. It`s no surprise the vast majority of
lightning activity has been confined north of the Wisconsin
state line under the colder temperatures aloft, and suspect that
will remain the case in our region tonight. Still, it`s just
cold enough that a few lightning strikes can`t be ruled out as
this activity sweeps across northern Illinois through the early
overnight hours.
With very steep 0-3 km lapse rates in place and a front that`s
racing eastward at nearly 40 mph, a brief period of gusty winds
may occur, either with the frontal passage itself and/or within
any more rambunctious shower activity (numerous sites in
southern Wisconsin and NE Iowa have reported gusts into the
35-45 mph range).
Only made some minor updates to refine PoP trends through 1-2
AM. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.
Carlaw
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Through Thursday Night:
Early this afternoon, we find a cold front making its way across
the CWA. The main body of precip pushing well out ahead of the
boundary has made it way off to our east. However, a second,
awfully narrow band of low-topped convective showers have popped
up just ahead of the front and is moving across our southern
and eastern CWA. A skinny CAPE profile and a large mid-level
hydrolapse have kept the thunder away and we expect that to
continue until this line moves away from the CWA late this
afternoon.
We`ve been quick to clear up behind the front with lots of
sunshine now gracing areas north and west of I-55. Steep low
level lapse rates are stirring up a 20-25 kt LLJ and bringing
breezy conditions to the area today. Meanwhile, a second, more
subtle cold front is currently throwing up some light showers in
far north-central Iowa. These showers are expected to maintain
themselves as they work into northern Illinois this evening.
Ahead of this wave, forecast soundings, for the most part, have
a very similar look. They feature steep lapse rates atop the
diurnally-driven, near-surface inversion and anywhere from 300
to, at most, 500 J/kg of MUCAPE tucked beneath a mid level
inversion. This mid level inversion will keep ELs capped at
between 600 and 500 mb with the coldest air through unstable
layer averaging at around -5C. Such a profile is certainly
capable of producing convective showers, although will likely
struggle to produce much in the way of lightning. Although since
thunder isn`t entirely out of the question, left a slight
chance for thunderstorms in the forecast. The highest shower
coverage and best chance at seeing embedded thunderstorms will
be north of I-80 where we find the more appreciable moisture and
just about all of the ample instability. Additionally, a newer
signal from the HRRR is for these showers to produce some gusty,
non-damaging winds. This seems possible if the rain can get
some of the stronger winds aloft to punch through the near-
surface stability. We should start to see showers move into our
northwest and approach the I-39 corridor sometime around mid-
evening and progress across the CWA through the middle of the
night.
A stout low level jet will drop over the area from the northwest
during the morning tomorrow. Steep lapse rates mixing through
the jet, as well as a tight surface pressure gradient behind the
departing system, will bring windy conditions to the CWA
tomorrow. While there is still discrepancy on the magnitude of
the jet, it looks likely that we should see regular gusts in the
25-35 mph range during the late morning and afternoon, however
gusts could very well exceed 40 mph at times. An area of
interest to potentially watch for higher gusts is north of I-80
and west of the Fox Valley during the latter part of the morning
where some guidance thinks we may be able to mix down a 40+ kt
LLJ before the jet diffuses some for the afternoon. Winds will
step down during the evening, but may remain a bit gusty through
the night.
Doom
Friday through Wednesday:
An upper-level low over Manitoba will elongate across Ontario
and Quebec while stalling into the upcoming weekend. This will
bring a period of seasonable to seasonably cool conditions with
daytime highs generally in the 70s. With shearing instability
within faster WNW flow aloft on the southern extent of the
upper-level low, overall guidance suggests that a developing
wave will interact with a pocket of Pacific moisture to produce
a low (10-30%) chance for light showers Saturday morning into
the evening. Guidance typically struggles to handle the specific
timing and strength of these waves this far out, so will
maintain only slight chance PoPs for now.
As the elongated wave begins to breakdown across the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday, a trailing moisture-starved trough
axis brushing the CWA to the northeast may produce widely
isolated shallow showers during the afternoon. Otherwise,
ridging building in from the west should result in dry
conditions and gradually warming conditions Monday and Tuesday.
Kluber
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Aviation weather concerns are:
- Period of showers late this evening, some with gusty/erratic
winds.
- Intermittent breezes/gusty westerly winds overnight before
winds increase Thursday morning and afternoon. Brief window
Thursday PM where winds could gust over 35 knots.
A region of high-based showers continues to track east across
Iowa and will arrive in the region later this evening. TEMPO
groups for -RA/-SHRA look good and have largely maintained the
inherited timing. Can`t entirely rule out a lightning strike
with this activity, although the potential is too low to justify
any mention in the TAFs. Any more robust showers will be capable
of producing erratic and gusty winds.
A reinforcing front will pass through, towards 03/04z INVOF RFD
and closer to 05z at the Chicago-area terminals. While not
in the outgoing 00z TAFs, there`s some potential winds could
gust briefly to 25 knots with this feature`s arrival.
Winds will increase through Thursday morning and afternoon,
generally from a 280-300 direction. There`s a brief window
during the early-mid afternoon where a few gusts near of just
above 35 kts could materialize, although this potential appears
too brief to warrant extra lines in the TAFs. Winds will remain
gusty into the evening but will gradually ease with time.
Carlaw
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for Gary
to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
912 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Current-Tonight...WDLY SCT convection this evening N/W of I-4.
Activity on a diminishing trend now, but there could be some ISOLD
showers/storms along (and west of) the Kissimmee River into mid-late
evening as the HRRR suggests but low confidence here. Any remaining
storm threats will be occasional lightning strikes, brief gusty
winds and locally heavy downpours. Conditions otherwise dry
overnight. Onshore flow will become light/variable later this
evening and overnight. Conditions remain warm and humid with
eventual mins in the U60s to L-M70s areawide.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Sea breeze collision across Lake County this evening. We`ll see
if any convection can muster across the interior/I-4 corridor,
aside from some ongoing activity north of KLEE early on. Will add
TEMPO groups if necessary on top of some "Vicinity" wording
already in place. Onshore winds will gradually diminish and become
light and variable later this evening into the overnight.
Predominant offshore winds early Thu with a slow push inland of
the sea breeze closer towards the coast. Higher confidence in
lightning storms Thu afternoon with increased moisture and
approaching shortwave, though much of this activity will occur
beyond 06/18Z. Westerly steering flow will allow for higher
coverage across the eastern peninsula.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
High pressure will move farther seaward late week, ahead of a
series of weak cool fronts. Minimal PoPs today and tonight over
the Atlantic waters will increase Thursday into Thursday evening,
as an upper level trough crosses the area. A few storms Thursday
could be strong to marginally severe. While daily shower and
lightning storm chances will continue through the weekend, PoPs
decrease to around 20-30% or less for much of the area (~40% for
the Treasure Coast waters Friday). By next weekend, a pattern
change looks to bring much higher chances for showers and storms.
Outside of convection, onshore flow breaks down into tonight as
the ridge axis shifts south of the local waters. Prevailing
offshore winds in the morning hours will back southerly to
southeasterly each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds
will remain under 15kts through Saturday, but are forecast to
increase to around 15kts Sunday and Monday, especially over the
waters south of Cape Canaveral. Seas 1-3ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions will persist
into this weekend, despite high pressure moving farther seaward
into the western Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorm chances remain
modest today, but will increase Thursday, as onshore flow breaks
down and the sea breeze collision occurs over the eastern half
of the peninsula Thursday afternoon. However, while the chance
for precipitation will increase, widespread wetting rainfall does
not appear likely. In addition to an increase in lightning strikes,
this will keep fire weather conditions very sensitive. Into the
weekend, rain chances will once again become limited. But, a
pattern change, with much higher coverage of showers and storms,
looks increasingly likely next week. Some storms Thursday could
be strong, with gusty winds and hail.
Above normal temperatures will keep min RH values between 40-45%
for much of the area through Friday. Then, drier air this weekend
is forecast to lead to near-critical to critical RH, with min RH
falling to as low as 30-35% over the interior. High temperatures
will reach the upper 90s into the weekend, with some daily
record temperatures possible. Heat indices will be in the 100-107
degree range. Very good to excellent dispersion is forecast
Thursday and Friday, with control issues likely.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 94 73 95 / 10 40 20 30
MCO 75 97 74 96 / 20 40 20 30
MLB 74 93 73 94 / 10 50 30 30
VRB 73 94 72 95 / 10 60 40 30
LEE 75 96 75 95 / 20 30 10 30
SFB 74 98 74 97 / 20 40 20 30
ORL 76 97 76 96 / 20 40 20 30
FPR 73 94 72 95 / 10 60 40 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1044 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some high-base showers and thunderstorms look to develop over the
western half of the U.P. this evening. A strong thunderstorm or two
with gusty winds and hail is possible.
- Showery weather and much cooler conditions expected Thursday
through the weekend under the influence of low pressure.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
There was quite a bit of afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity
with reports of hail up to dime/penny size and even some tree
damage in the Ironwood area. Thunderstorm intensity gradually
waned over the past 2-3 hours to the point where small hail and
gusty winds are now unlikely. The only remaining cluster of
storms is north of Manistique and the most likely hazards are
frequent lightning and briefly heavy downpours. Upstream
radar/satellite don`t show much going on so expect the drying
trend to continue overnight into Thursday morning as a
progressively drier air mass builds over the area so have
substantially reduced PoPs through the nighttime hours. There is
commingled uncertainty with tonights low temperatures, cloud
cover, and winds. Generally favor mostly cloudy skies and light
winds keeping the boundary layer warmer around 50F, but there
are breaks in the cloud cover that may allow for locally cooler
spots dipping into the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 431 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
GOES-16 Visible imagery shows clearing skies along the MI/WI state
line behind an advancing cold front, with the band of rain showers
from that front now mainly confined to the eastern half of the UP.
Through 1830Z, the only electrically active storm has been a sub-
severe cell that started in southern Menominee County and has
transited the Bay of Green Bay and is imminently arriving at the
Garden Peninsula. Under cloudy skies for much of the day, highs are
around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the low 70s.
Attention turns upstream this afternoon to the clearing in the west,
which already is showing signs of some cu development supported by
diurnal heating and a secondary shortwave evident on RAP Analysis
500mb heights. The 12Z HREF showed much less available instability
relative to yesterday`s storms with only around 500-1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE available. Shear is right around what it was yesterday with
around 20 kt of effective bulk shear and 50-100 0-3km SRH. It is
worth noting that while instability is surface-based, the depth of
the mixed layer at the surface is around 6,000 ft, so cloud bases
are going to be relatively high. Reflectivity paintball plots in the
HREF show that CI will begin in northern Wisconsin and push east
into the UP around 20Z, somewhat losing energy as it progresses and
maintaining cellular form. Thinking hazards are once again isolated
damaging wind gusts and pea to quarter sized hail from "core dumps".
Less total precipitation is expected with this round of showers,
with HREF mean 6-hourly precipitation only around 0.2-0.4 inches. In
the wake of showers, lows look to fall to the 50s tonight, with
winds staying out of the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 431 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Flow over and around N America through early next week will feature
pronounced high latitude blockiness. Through the remainder of
this week and into the weekend, building mid-level
ridging/positive height anomalies, first from ne through n
central Canada and across the Arctic Ocean, and then over
western N America will force mid-upper level troughing to
develop from s central Canada across the Great Lakes/eastern
U.S. This troughing will also force the mid-level low now over
northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba to descend across the Great Lakes
region beginning Thu. For Upper MI, this pattern evolution will
lead to periods of showery weather and a period of blo normal
temps (seasonably cool) thru early next week. However, the large
scale pattern does suggest the potential of unseasonably cool
days in the mix, particularly on Thu. Models have lacked run-to-
run consistency and have been and continue to be quite varied
on the details of the flow affecting Upper MI. So, the pcpn fcst
has much more uncertainty than normal. Overall, expect many
areas to be dry much of the time as showers are likely to be
scattered in coverage on most days. Thu is likely to be the day
with the most numerous shower coverage. With the mid-level
trough weakening and shifting e early next week, dry and warmer
weather is more likely to prevail for the first half of next
week, although a few of the 00z models hint at another wave
moving through the area in the Tuesday- Wednesday time frame
that may bring the potential for some light shower activity.
Beginning Thursday, the mid-level low now over central Canada will
dive se across the Upper Great Lakes by Thu. A shortwave attached to
the mid-level low circulation will track from northern MN se across
Upper Mi in the late morning/afternoon. Forcing associated with this
feature combined with the start of daytime heating will support a
rapid development/expansion of showers during the morning. The
showers should diminish in coverage over the w in the aftn in the
wake of the wave. Considerable cloud cover will limit daytime
heating/instability, so thunder potential is overall minimal. Fcst
will only include a mention of thunder over the e and se fcst area
due to a little more instability potential there before clouding
over and development of widespread showers. Under considerable
cloudiness, passing showers, rather stiff wnw winds and a 850mb
thermal trough driving se into the area, it will be unseasonably
cool for much of the area. Highs in the 50s F will likely be the
rule across the w through n central ranging up to the lower/mid 60s
F s central/se. Lakeside locations exposed to wnw winds across Lake
Superior may not see max temps above 50F. W side of the Keweenaw
likely to be coolest. Showers will diminish Thu night in the wake of
shortwave, but won`t end, particularly over the e where showers may
keep going in response to some isentropic ascent as warmer air to
the n and ne weakly advects toward the thermal troffing over the
area.
On Fri, center of mid-level low drifts e toward southern Ontario.
Weak shortwave ridging develops into western Upper MI between that
low and another mid-level low over s central Canada. This is
suggestive of fewer showers over western Upper MI on Fri compared to
Thu, with more areas likely to be dry through the day. To the e,
closer to the mid-level low, shower coverage will be greater. High
temps on Fri will be coolest over the e where more clouds/shra are
expected. Mid 50s to around 60F expected there. Low/mid 60s expected
to the w, except closer to Lake Superior where temps will be in the
50s.
Sat, models seem to be coming into a little bit better agreement on
a shortwave trough moving through the area. MLCAPE values of 100-300
j/kg could maybe even support a rumble of thunder along the WI
border and south central late morning into the afternoon. Expect
scattered shower coverage with highs generally in the 60s, except
for some 50s readings near Lake Superior in a continued nw flow.
Sun, although model consistency isn`t great on exact details most of
the models hint at another shortwave/mid-level trough axis moving
through the area in the Sat night into Sunday time frame. Would
expect at least isolated showers from feature perhaps aided by some
weak isentropic ascent from the north as winds shifting from nw to n
bring a pocket of warmer 850 mb air into the area. North flow off
Lake Superior will result in 50s readings near the lake while 60s
readings will be more common inland.
With medium range models trending toward more ridging building over
the area on Monday behind the exiting mid-level trough, would expect
drier and warmer conditions on Monday with highs mostly in the 60s
to lower 70s, with warmest readings inland toward the WI border.
Models and ensembles then hint at a shortwave trough moving through
in the late Tue into Wed time frame which could result in at least
isolated showers again. Temps are expected to rebound to around
normal values for this time of year with highs mainly in the 70s
Tue into Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
VFR prevails at all TAF sites to begin this afternoon. -SHRA has
moved out of IWD and CMX with SAW forecast to also clear out of
precip in the next hour or two. This evening, a second wave of
showers is expected to move in from the west, with some stronger
TSRA possible at IWD. VFR is expected to prevail through these
SHRA/TSRA. In the morning hours, low (20-40%) SHRA chances return to
the forecast along with likely (50+%) reductions in ceiling height
to MVFR, though models have trended later with the onset of MVFR
conditions over the last few model cycles. Expect winds to remain
primarily out of the west, occasionally gusty.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 431 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
A low pressure trough moving in from the west could lead to a few
stronger thunderstorms developing over MN and moving out across
western Lake Superior late this afternoon/evening, posing a risk of
locally strong wind gusts. Late tonight continuing into Fri, steady
w to wnw winds generally at around 20kt with occasional gusts to
30kt will set in from w to e with the highest gusts over the east
half. A slight diminishing of winds will occur over the weekend with
sustained speeds falling back to around 15kt as winds shift from
northwest to north-northwest on Sunday. North winds should diminish
blo 15 kts on Monday as a high pressure ridge builds in from the
northwest.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EK
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
859 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Showers and thunderstorms in northern AL have weakened as they
continue northward into the mid state, but still pose a severe
threat for northern AL. Some gusty winds remain possible with the
showers and storms moving into the southwest zones, but CAMs
continue to weaken the activity as the evening goes on. But, will
continue to monitor for any strengthening, or, any additional
development with the approaching cold front from the northwest.
Made some minor edits to the near term forecast to reflect latest
guidance. No other changes to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
The morning sounding from OHX is rather underwhelming. There is
some instability, but not a great deal. The surface-based CAPE is
just 333 J/kg, with a Lifted Index of -2, and the 700-500 mb lapse
rate is a measly 5.2 C/km. The column is nearly saturated all the
way up, and without any sort of dry layer aloft, we just aren`t
getting steep enough lapse rates to produce any meaningful
instability. The 0-3 km helicity is 136, but this is due mostly to
speed shear. There is very little directional shear present. The
Precipitable Water is a robust 1.77", which gives us a PWAT+ value
of 148 (observed PWAT is 148% of the daily mean value), and puts
us well above the 90th percentile for June 5. Anyway, once this
initial line of showers passes through Middle Tennessee, the HRRR
shows very little activity until later tonight with the passage of
the actual surface boundary. After that, nothing.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
High pressure will keep us mostly sunny and less humid through
Friday. What looked to be a sunny weekend not so long ago is now
looking like a rainy one, especially Sunday. On Saturday, a weak
shortwave will bring some additional cloudiness with low rain
chances to Middle Tennessee. And on Sunday, an east-west oriented
surface boundary will sag southward through the mid state and
bring even better rain chances. Fortunately, QPF values on
Saturday and Sunday are very low. In other words, these will be
nuisance showers rather than washouts. As a result of tonight`s
frontal passage, temperatures will cool off several degrees
beginning Thursday night and Friday, with relatively cool weather
lasting at least until the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will push in from the
west after 00Z. They will be spotty in nature as the high
resolution models have been overdoing the precipitation. Will
utilize VCSH/VCTS for stations west of the Plateau
(KCKV/KBNA/KMQY). The line clears off the Plateau by 17-20Z.
There could still be a period of MVFR/IFR CIGs around sunrise
before returning to VFR. Also MVFR/IFR will be possible in the
heavier thunderstorms.
Winds will be westerly and then turning northwesterly and gusting
to 20kts after 22Z when the weak front pushes through.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 70 88 63 84 / 40 10 0 0
Clarksville 67 86 59 83 / 40 0 0 0
Crossville 64 80 55 75 / 50 50 0 0
Columbia 68 88 60 82 / 40 10 0 0
Cookeville 66 82 56 77 / 50 40 0 0
Jamestown 65 81 55 75 / 50 50 0 0
Lawrenceburg 67 86 61 80 / 50 10 0 0
Murfreesboro 68 88 60 82 / 40 20 0 0
Waverly 67 87 61 82 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Barnwell
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
807 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a fairly
dry airmass aloft of the Florida Peninsula early this evening,
with only a few stray showers and storms managing to break through
across the area this afternoon. 00z KTBW radar imagery is also
showing the east and west coast sea breezes continuing to push
inland and about to collide over interior portions of the forecast
area, so a few more storms developing this evening can`t be ruled
out yet...but most locations will need to continue waiting for a
chance of rain.
Overall, the forecast looks on track for a mostly dry day again
on Thursday near the coast, with some afternoon and evening
showers mainly over the interior. A few minor rain chances were
made for the next couple of hours to keep up with radar and
satellite trends. No other changes are planned for the evening
update.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Weak upper ridging extends northward along the eastern seaboard,
while surface high pressure north of the Bahamas ridges west over
Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This is keeping a predominant
easterly flow over the region today. Latest HRRR guidance has
showers and storms developing over the interior later this
afternoon/evening with the highest coverage over Polk and Highlands
Counties with the west and east coast sea breeze collisions.
By Thursday morning, the upper ridging and surface high move
southeastward while a weak frontal boundary and upper troughing
moves through the southeast U.S. This will bring a shift in the
winds to the south during the morning and then westerly by the
afternoon hours. This boundary will stall out north of the area
through the end of the week, while weak high pressure ridges over
south Florida. PWAT values will fluctuate between 1.5 - 1.7 inches
through the end of the week, which will support scattered showers
and isolated storms.
The boundary pushes south and east of the area by Saturday allowing
for weak high pressure to build in over the eastern gulf. This will
keep predominant westerly winds over the area and will also usher in
some slightly drier air with PWAT values dipping to around 1.1 - 1.4
inches over the weekend. This will limit shower and storm activity
on Saturday and Sunday.
The ridge will lift slightly northward by the start of next week,
putting Florida under a south-southwesterly wind flow. This will
equate to higher PWAT values in the 1.6 - 2.0 inches range. This
increasing moisture will bring more widespread showers and storms
for the first half of next week. Daytime highs will top out in the
low to mid 90`s each day with overnight lows in the 70`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 807 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
A few showers or storms are lingering along sea breeze boundaries
and could still impact area terminals tonight, mainly around KLAL
and KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Elsewhere, rain chances are too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time, but a stray shower overnight is
not out of the question. Mainly dry and VFR conditions will
continue on Thursday, with a few showers or storms possible over
the interior and around southwest Florida.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
High pressure north of the Bahamas is expected to start shifting
southeast later today into tonight. Predominant easterly winds
become onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Showers and storms
should develop over the land this afternoon/evening, drifting into
the Gulf during the late evening and early overnight hours. A weak
frontal boundary approaches the Gulf waters on Thursday and Friday,
which will shift winds to the west through the end of the week. As a
result, showers could develop along the coast early and push inland
during the afternoon. Winds will remain less than 15 knots and seas
2 feet or less through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
High pressure begins to gradually move southeast today as a weak
boundary approaches the area on Thursday and Friday. Scattered
showers and isolated storms possible through the end of the week.
The boundary moves southeast of the area by Saturday allowing for
high pressure to build into the area, which will usher in some
slightly drier air over the weekend. Some critical RH values below
35 percent will be possible on Saturday and Sunday afternoon, but
winds are expected to be light so no Red Flag Warning should be
needed. Moisture rebounds by next Monday as a more southerly wind
flow sets up over the region. Higher rain chances also expected for
the first half of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 93 79 92 / 10 10 30 40
FMY 77 95 77 94 / 20 10 30 40
GIF 74 98 74 96 / 20 30 20 40
SRQ 78 93 79 92 / 10 0 30 30
BKV 71 95 72 93 / 10 0 30 40
SPG 82 92 82 91 / 10 0 30 40
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn